Daily Papers

The existence of a plethora of language models makes the problem of selecting the best one for a custom task challenging. Most state-of-the-art methods leverage transformer-based models (e.g., BERT) or their variants. Training such models and exploring their hyperparameter space, however, is computationally expensive. Prior work proposes several neural architecture search (NAS) methods that employ performance predictors (e.g., surrogate models) to address this issue; however, analysis has been limited to homogeneous models that use fixed dimensionality throughout the network. This leads to sub-optimal architectures. To address this limitation, we propose a suite of heterogeneous and flexible models, namely FlexiBERT, that have varied encoder layers with a diverse set of possible operations and different hidden dimensions. For better-posed surrogate modeling in this expanded design space, we propose a new graph-similarity-based embedding scheme. We also propose a novel NAS policy, called BOSHNAS, that leverages this new scheme, Bayesian modeling, and second-order optimization, to quickly train and use a neural surrogate model to converge to the optimal architecture. A comprehensive set of experiments shows that the proposed policy, when applied to the FlexiBERT design space, pushes the performance frontier upwards compared to traditional models. FlexiBERT-Mini, one of our proposed models, has 3% fewer parameters than BERT-Mini and achieves 8.9% higher GLUE score. A FlexiBERT model with equivalent performance as the best homogeneous model achieves 2.6x smaller size. FlexiBERT-Large, another proposed model, achieves state-of-the-art results, outperforming the baseline models by at least 5.7% on the GLUE benchmark.

Recent advances in Neural Architecture Search (NAS) such as one-shot NAS offer the ability to extract specialized hardware-aware sub-network configurations from a task-specific super-network. While considerable effort has been employed towards improving the first stage, namely, the training of the super-network, the search for derivative high-performing sub-networks is still under-explored. Popular methods decouple the super-network training from the sub-network search and use performance predictors to reduce the computational burden of searching on different hardware platforms. We propose a flexible search framework that automatically and efficiently finds optimal sub-networks that are optimized for different performance metrics and hardware configurations. Specifically, we show how evolutionary algorithms can be paired with lightly trained objective predictors in an iterative cycle to accelerate architecture search in a multi-objective setting for various modalities including machine translation and image classification.

The growing popularity of data mining catalyses the researchers to explore various exciting aspects of education. Early prediction of student performance is an emerging area among them. The researchers have used various predictors in performance modelling studies. Although prior cognition can affect student performance, establishing their relationship is still an open research challenge. Quantifying the knowledge from readily available data is the major challenge here. We have proposed a semantic approach for this purpose. Association mining on nearly 0.35 million observations establishes that prior cognition impacts the student performance. The proposed approach of measuring domain knowledge can help the early performance modelling studies to use it as a predictor.

Conformal prediction is emerging as a popular paradigm for providing rigorous uncertainty quantification in machine learning since it can be easily applied as a post-processing step to already trained models. In this paper, we extend conformal prediction to the federated learning setting. The main challenge we face is data heterogeneity across the clients - this violates the fundamental tenet of exchangeability required for conformal prediction. We propose a weaker notion of partial exchangeability, better suited to the FL setting, and use it to develop the Federated Conformal Prediction (FCP) framework. We show FCP enjoys rigorous theoretical guarantees and excellent empirical performance on several computer vision and medical imaging datasets. Our results demonstrate a practical approach to incorporating meaningful uncertainty quantification in distributed and heterogeneous environments. We provide code used in our experiments https://github.com/clu5/federated-conformal.

The rapid advancements in computing dramatically increase the scale and cost of training Large Language Models (LLMs). Accurately predicting downstream task performance prior to model training is crucial for efficient resource allocation, yet remains challenging due to two primary constraints: (1) the "emergence phenomenon", wherein downstream performance metrics become meaningful only after extensive training, which limits the ability to use smaller models for prediction; (2) Uneven task difficulty distributions and the absence of consistent scaling laws, resulting in substantial metric variability. Existing performance prediction methods suffer from limited accuracy and reliability, thereby impeding the assessment of potential LLM capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose a Clustering-On-Difficulty (COD) downstream performance prediction framework. COD first constructs a predictable support subset by clustering tasks based on difficulty features, strategically excluding non-emergent and non-scalable clusters. The scores on the selected subset serve as effective intermediate predictors of downstream performance on the full evaluation set. With theoretical support, we derive a mapping function that transforms performance metrics from the predictable subset to the full evaluation set, thereby ensuring accurate extrapolation of LLM downstream performance. The proposed method has been applied to predict performance scaling for a 70B LLM, providing actionable insights for training resource allocation and assisting in monitoring the training process. Notably, COD achieves remarkable predictive accuracy on the 70B LLM by leveraging an ensemble of small models, demonstrating an absolute mean deviation of 1.36% across eight important LLM evaluation benchmarks.

Transformers, currently the state-of-the-art in natural language understanding (NLU) tasks, are prone to generate uncalibrated predictions or extreme probabilities, making the process of taking different decisions based on their output relatively difficult. In this paper we propose to build several inductive Venn--ABERS predictors (IVAP), which are guaranteed to be well calibrated under minimal assumptions, based on a selection of pre-trained transformers. We test their performance over a set of diverse NLU tasks and show that they are capable of producing well-calibrated probabilistic predictions that are uniformly spread over the [0,1] interval -- all while retaining the original model's predictive accuracy.

In 3D human action recognition, limited supervised data makes it challenging to fully tap into the modeling potential of powerful networks such as transformers. As a result, researchers have been actively investigating effective self-supervised pre-training strategies. In this work, we show that instead of following the prevalent pretext task to perform masked self-component reconstruction in human joints, explicit contextual motion modeling is key to the success of learning effective feature representation for 3D action recognition. Formally, we propose the Masked Motion Prediction (MAMP) framework. To be specific, the proposed MAMP takes as input the masked spatio-temporal skeleton sequence and predicts the corresponding temporal motion of the masked human joints. Considering the high temporal redundancy of the skeleton sequence, in our MAMP, the motion information also acts as an empirical semantic richness prior that guide the masking process, promoting better attention to semantically rich temporal regions. Extensive experiments on NTU-60, NTU-120, and PKU-MMD datasets show that the proposed MAMP pre-training substantially improves the performance of the adopted vanilla transformer, achieving state-of-the-art results without bells and whistles. The source code of our MAMP is available at https://github.com/maoyunyao/MAMP.

Large-scale Protein Language Models (PLMs) have improved performance in protein prediction tasks, ranging from 3D structure prediction to various function predictions. In particular, AlphaFold, a ground-breaking AI system, could potentially reshape structural biology. However, the utility of the PLM module in AlphaFold, Evoformer, has not been explored beyond structure prediction. In this paper, we investigate the representation ability of three popular PLMs: ESM-1b (single sequence), MSA-Transformer (multiple sequence alignment) and Evoformer (structural), with a special focus on Evoformer. Specifically, we aim to answer the following key questions: (i) Does the Evoformer trained as part of AlphaFold produce representations amenable to predicting protein function? (ii) If yes, can Evoformer replace ESM-1b and MSA-Transformer? (ii) How much do these PLMs rely on evolution-related protein data? In this regard, are they complementary to each other? We compare these models by empirical study along with new insights and conclusions. All code and datasets for reproducibility are available at https://github.com/elttaes/Revisiting-PLMs.

Massively Multilingual Transformer based Language Models have been observed to be surprisingly effective on zero-shot transfer across languages, though the performance varies from language to language depending on the pivot language(s) used for fine-tuning. In this work, we build upon some of the existing techniques for predicting the zero-shot performance on a task, by modeling it as a multi-task learning problem. We jointly train predictive models for different tasks which helps us build more accurate predictors for tasks where we have test data in very few languages to measure the actual performance of the model. Our approach also lends us the ability to perform a much more robust feature selection and identify a common set of features that influence zero-shot performance across a variety of tasks.

Large language models display remarkable capabilities in logical and mathematical reasoning, allowing them to solve complex tasks. Interestingly, these abilities emerge in networks trained on the simple task of next-token prediction. In this work, we present a theoretical framework for studying auto-regressive next-token predictors. We demonstrate that even simple models such as linear next-token predictors, trained on Chain-of-Thought (CoT) data, can approximate any function efficiently computed by a Turing machine. We introduce a new complexity measure -- length complexity -- which measures the number of intermediate tokens in a CoT sequence required to approximate some target function, and analyze the interplay between length complexity and other notions of complexity. Finally, we show experimentally that simple next-token predictors, such as linear networks and shallow Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs), display non-trivial performance on text generation and arithmetic tasks. Our results demonstrate that the power of language models can be attributed, to a great extent, to the auto-regressive next-token training scheme, and not necessarily to a particular choice of architecture.

Geolocating images of a ground-level scene entails estimating the location on Earth where the picture was taken, in absence of GPS or other location metadata. Typically, methods are evaluated by measuring the Great Circle Distance (GCD) between a predicted location and ground truth. However, this measurement is limited because it only evaluates a single point, not estimates of regions or score heatmaps. This is especially important in applications to rural, wilderness and under-sampled areas, where finding the exact location may not be possible, and when used in aggregate systems that progressively narrow down locations. In this paper, we introduce a novel metric, Recall vs Area (RvA), which measures the accuracy of estimated distributions of locations. RvA treats image geolocation results similarly to document retrieval, measuring recall as a function of area: For a ranked list of (possibly non-contiguous) predicted regions, we measure the accumulated area required for the region to contain the ground truth coordinate. This produces a curve similar to a precision-recall curve, where "precision" is replaced by square kilometers area, allowing evaluation of performance for different downstream search area budgets. Following directly from this view of the problem, we then examine a simple ensembling approach to global-scale image geolocation, which incorporates information from multiple sources to help address domain shift, and can readily incorporate multiple models, attribute predictors, and data sources. We study its effectiveness by combining the geolocation models GeoEstimation and the current SOTA GeoCLIP, with attribute predictors based on ORNL LandScan and ESA-CCI Land Cover. We find significant improvements in image geolocation for areas that are under-represented in the training set, particularly non-urban areas, on both Im2GPS3k and Street View images.

ML models often exhibit unexpectedly poor behavior when they are deployed in real-world domains. We identify underspecification as a key reason for these failures. An ML pipeline is underspecified when it can return many predictors with equivalently strong held-out performance in the training domain. Underspecification is common in modern ML pipelines, such as those based on deep learning. Predictors returned by underspecified pipelines are often treated as equivalent based on their training domain performance, but we show here that such predictors can behave very differently in deployment domains. This ambiguity can lead to instability and poor model behavior in practice, and is a distinct failure mode from previously identified issues arising from structural mismatch between training and deployment domains. We show that this problem appears in a wide variety of practical ML pipelines, using examples from computer vision, medical imaging, natural language processing, clinical risk prediction based on electronic health records, and medical genomics. Our results show the need to explicitly account for underspecification in modeling pipelines that are intended for real-world deployment in any domain.

A major technique in learning-augmented online algorithms is combining multiple algorithms or predictors. Since the performance of each predictor may vary over time, it is desirable to use not the single best predictor as a benchmark, but rather a dynamic combination which follows different predictors at different times. We design algorithms that combine predictions and are competitive against such dynamic combinations for a wide class of online problems, namely, metrical task systems. Against the best (in hindsight) unconstrained combination of ell predictors, we obtain a competitive ratio of O(ell^2), and show that this is best possible. However, for a benchmark with slightly constrained number of switches between different predictors, we can get a (1+epsilon)-competitive algorithm. Moreover, our algorithms can be adapted to access predictors in a bandit-like fashion, querying only one predictor at a time. An unexpected implication of one of our lower bounds is a new structural insight about covering formulations for the k-server problem.

Random walks are widely used for mining networks due to the computational efficiency of computing them. For instance, graph representation learning learns a d-dimensional embedding space, so that the nodes that tend to co-occur on random walks (a proxy of being in the same network neighborhood) are close in the embedding space. Specific local network topology (i.e., structure) influences the co-occurrence of nodes on random walks, so random walks of limited length capture only partial topological information, hence diminishing the performance of downstream methods. We explicitly capture all topological neighborhood information and improve performance by introducing orbit adjacencies that quantify the adjacencies of two nodes as co-occurring on a given pair of graphlet orbits, which are symmetric positions on graphlets (small, connected, non-isomorphic, induced subgraphs of a large network). Importantly, we mathematically prove that random walks on up to k nodes capture only a subset of all the possible orbit adjacencies for up to k-node graphlets. Furthermore, we enable orbit adjacency-based analysis of networks by developing an efficient GRaphlet-orbit ADjacency COunter (GRADCO), which exhaustively computes all 28 orbit adjacency matrices for up to four-node graphlets. Note that four-node graphlets suffice, because real networks are usually small-world. In large networks on around 20,000 nodes, GRADCOcomputesthe28matricesinminutes. Onsixrealnetworksfromvarious domains, we compare the performance of node-label predictors obtained by using the network embeddings based on our orbit adjacencies to those based on random walks. We find that orbit adjacencies, which include those unseen by random walks, outperform random walk-based adjacencies, demonstrating the importance of the inclusion of the topological neighborhood information that is unseen by random walks.

One-Shot Neural Architecture Search (NAS) algorithms often rely on training a hardware agnostic super-network for a domain specific task. Optimal sub-networks are then extracted from the trained super-network for different hardware platforms. However, training super-networks from scratch can be extremely time consuming and compute intensive especially for large models that rely on a two-stage training process of pre-training and fine-tuning. State of the art pre-trained models are available for a wide range of tasks, but their large sizes significantly limits their applicability on various hardware platforms. We propose InstaTune, a method that leverages off-the-shelf pre-trained weights for large models and generates a super-network during the fine-tuning stage. InstaTune has multiple benefits. Firstly, since the process happens during fine-tuning, it minimizes the overall time and compute resources required for NAS. Secondly, the sub-networks extracted are optimized for the target task, unlike prior work that optimizes on the pre-training objective. Finally, InstaTune is easy to "plug and play" in existing frameworks. By using multi-objective evolutionary search algorithms along with lightly trained predictors, we find Pareto-optimal sub-networks that outperform their respective baselines across different performance objectives such as accuracy and MACs. Specifically, we demonstrate that our approach performs well across both unimodal (ViT and BERT) and multi-modal (BEiT-3) transformer based architectures.

Recent one-shot Neural Architecture Search algorithms rely on training a hardware-agnostic super-network tailored to a specific task and then extracting efficient sub-networks for different hardware platforms. Popular approaches separate the training of super-networks from the search for sub-networks, often employing predictors to alleviate the computational overhead associated with search. Additionally, certain methods also incorporate the quantization policy within the search space. However, while the quantization policy search for convolutional neural networks is well studied, the extension of these methods to transformers and especially foundation models remains under-explored. In this paper, we demonstrate that by using multi-objective search algorithms paired with lightly trained predictors, we can efficiently search for both the sub-network architecture and the corresponding quantization policy and outperform their respective baselines across different performance objectives such as accuracy, model size, and latency. Specifically, we demonstrate that our approach performs well across both uni-modal (ViT and BERT) and multi-modal (BEiT-3) transformer-based architectures as well as convolutional architectures (ResNet). For certain networks, we demonstrate an improvement of up to 4.80x and 3.44x for latency and model size respectively, without degradation in accuracy compared to the fully quantized INT8 baselines.

There have been many benchmarks for evaluating long-context language models (LCLMs), but developers often rely on synthetic tasks like needle-in-a-haystack (NIAH) or arbitrary subsets of tasks. It remains unclear whether they translate to the diverse downstream applications of LCLMs, and the inconsistency further complicates model comparison. We investigate the underlying reasons behind current practices and find that existing benchmarks often provide noisy signals due to low coverage of applications, insufficient lengths, unreliable metrics, and incompatibility with base models. In this work, we present HELMET (How to Evaluate Long-context Models Effectively and Thoroughly), a comprehensive benchmark encompassing seven diverse, application-centric categories. We also address many issues in previous benchmarks by adding controllable lengths up to 128k tokens, model-based evaluation for reliable metrics, and few-shot prompting for robustly evaluating base models. Consequently, we demonstrate that HELMET offers more reliable and consistent rankings of frontier LCLMs. Through a comprehensive study of 51 LCLMs, we find that (1) synthetic tasks like NIAH are not good predictors of downstream performance; (2) the diverse categories in HELMET exhibit distinct trends and low correlation with each other; and (3) while most LCLMs achieve perfect NIAH scores, open-source models significantly lag behind closed ones when the task requires full-context reasoning or following complex instructions -- the gap widens with increased lengths. Finally, we recommend using our RAG tasks for fast model development, as they are easy to run and more predictive of other downstream performance; ultimately, we advocate for a holistic evaluation across diverse tasks.

Scaling Text-to-speech (TTS) to large-scale datasets has been demonstrated as an effective method for improving the diversity and naturalness of synthesized speech. At the high level, previous large-scale TTS models can be categorized into either Auto-regressive (AR) based (e.g., VALL-E) or Non-auto-regressive (NAR) based models (e.g., NaturalSpeech 2/3). Although these works demonstrate good performance, they still have potential weaknesses. For instance, AR-based models are plagued by unstable generation quality and slow generation speed; meanwhile, some NAR-based models need phoneme-level duration alignment information, thereby increasing the complexity of data pre-processing, model design, and loss design. In this work, we build upon our previous publication by implementing a simple and efficient non-autoregressive (NAR) TTS framework, termed SimpleSpeech 2. SimpleSpeech 2 effectively combines the strengths of both autoregressive (AR) and non-autoregressive (NAR) methods, offering the following key advantages: (1) simplified data preparation; (2) straightforward model and loss design; and (3) stable, high-quality generation performance with fast inference speed. Compared to our previous publication, we present ({\romannumeral1}) a detailed analysis of the influence of speech tokenizer and noisy label for TTS performance; ({\romannumeral2}) four distinct types of sentence duration predictors; ({\romannumeral3}) a novel flow-based scalar latent transformer diffusion model. With these improvement, we show a significant improvement in generation performance and generation speed compared to our previous work and other state-of-the-art (SOTA) large-scale TTS models. Furthermore, we show that SimpleSpeech 2 can be seamlessly extended to multilingual TTS by training it on multilingual speech datasets. Demos are available on: {https://dongchaoyang.top/SimpleSpeech2\_demo/}.

There is evidence that the driving style of an autonomous vehicle is important to increase the acceptance and trust of the passengers. The driving situation has been found to have a significant influence on human driving behavior. However, current driving style models only partially incorporate driving environment information, limiting the alignment between an agent and the given situation. Therefore, we propose a situation-aware driving style model based on different visual feature encoders pretrained on fleet data, as well as driving behavior predictors, which are adapted to the driving style of a specific driver. Our experiments show that the proposed method outperforms static driving styles significantly and forms plausible situation clusters. Furthermore, we found that feature encoders pretrained on our dataset lead to more precise driving behavior modeling. In contrast, feature encoders pretrained supervised and unsupervised on different data sources lead to more specific situation clusters, which can be utilized to constrain and control the driving style adaptation for specific situations. Moreover, in a real-world setting, where driving style adaptation is happening iteratively, we found the MLP-based behavior predictors achieve good performance initially but suffer from catastrophic forgetting. In contrast, behavior predictors based on situationdependent statistics can learn iteratively from continuous data streams by design. Overall, our experiments show that important information for driving behavior prediction is contained within the visual feature encoder. The dataset is publicly available at huggingface.co/datasets/jHaselberger/SADC-Situation-Awareness-for-Driver-Centric-Driving-Style-Adaptation.

Traditionally, data selection has been studied in settings where all samples from prospective sources are fully revealed to a machine learning developer. However, in practical data exchange scenarios, data providers often reveal only a limited subset of samples before an acquisition decision is made. Recently, there have been efforts to fit scaling laws that predict model performance at any size and data source composition using the limited available samples. However, these scaling functions are black-box, computationally expensive to fit, highly susceptible to overfitting, or/and difficult to optimize for data selection. This paper proposes a framework called <projektor>, which predicts model performance and supports data selection decisions based on partial samples of prospective data sources. Our approach distinguishes itself from existing work by introducing a novel *two-stage* performance inference process. In the first stage, we leverage the Optimal Transport distance to predict the model's performance for any data mixture ratio within the range of disclosed data sizes. In the second stage, we extrapolate the performance to larger undisclosed data sizes based on a novel parameter-free mapping technique inspired by neural scaling laws. We further derive an efficient gradient-based method to select data sources based on the projected model performance. Evaluation over a diverse range of applications demonstrates that <projektor> significantly improves existing performance scaling approaches in terms of both the accuracy of performance inference and the computation costs associated with constructing the performance predictor. Also, <projektor> outperforms by a wide margin in data selection effectiveness compared to a range of other off-the-shelf solutions.

CPU performance prediction, which involves forecasting the performance scores of a CPU based on its hardware characteristics during its operation, is a critical technology for computational system design and resource management in the big data era. However, this research field currently faces two significant challenges. First, collecting real-world data is challenging due to the wide variety of CPU products on the market and the highly specialized nature of relevant hardware characteristics. In the research process, this field lacks a standard dataset with unified hardware characteristics, wide data coverage, and comprehensive benchmarks. Second, existing methods based on hardware simulation models or machine learning exhibit notable shortcomings, such as lengthy simulation test cycles and low prediction accuracy. To bridge these gaps, we first collect, preprocess, and standardize historical data from the 4th Generation Intel Xeon Scalable Processors across multiple benchmark suites to create a new dataset, named PerfCastDB. Subsequently, we design a deep learning based model called Nova CPU Performance Predictor (NCPP) as the baseline for this new dataset. The NCPP network is designed based on group attention mechanism. It effectively quantifies the implicit relationships between hardware characteristics within and across groups and comprehensively models the impact of various hardware characteristics on CPU performance prediction. We conduct comparative experiments using the proposed PerfCastDB dataset. Compared to existing approaches, NCPP achieves superior evaluation results, demonstrating its effectiveness. Furthermore, we have open-sourced part of the dataset and the NCPP network code to facilitate subsequent research. The resources can be accessed at https://github.com/xiaoman-liu/NCPP.

Powerful large language models have facilitated the development of writing assistants that promise to significantly improve the quality and efficiency of composition and communication. However, a barrier to effective assistance is the lack of personalization in LLM outputs to the author's communication style and specialized knowledge. In this paper, we address this challenge by proposing PEARL, a retrieval-augmented LLM writing assistant personalized with a generation-calibrated retriever. Our retriever is trained to select historic user-authored documents for prompt augmentation, such that they are likely to best personalize LLM generations for a user request. We propose two key novelties for training our retriever: 1) A training data selection method that identifies user requests likely to benefit from personalization and documents that provide that benefit; and 2) A scale-calibrating KL-divergence objective that ensures that our retriever closely tracks the benefit of a document for personalized generation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PEARL in generating personalized workplace social media posts and Reddit comments. Finally, we showcase the potential of a generation-calibrated retriever to double as a performance predictor and further improve low-quality generations via LLM chaining.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have shown remarkable performance in visual synthesis but are computationally expensive due to the need for multiple evaluations during the sampling. Recent predictor-corrector diffusion samplers have significantly reduced the required number of function evaluations (NFE), but inherently suffer from a misalignment issue caused by the extra corrector step, especially with a large classifier-free guidance scale (CFG). In this paper, we introduce a new fast DPM sampler called DC-Solver, which leverages dynamic compensation (DC) to mitigate the misalignment of the predictor-corrector samplers. The dynamic compensation is controlled by compensation ratios that are adaptive to the sampling steps and can be optimized on only 10 datapoints by pushing the sampling trajectory toward a ground truth trajectory. We further propose a cascade polynomial regression (CPR) which can instantly predict the compensation ratios on unseen sampling configurations. Additionally, we find that the proposed dynamic compensation can also serve as a plug-and-play module to boost the performance of predictor-only samplers. Extensive experiments on both unconditional sampling and conditional sampling demonstrate that our DC-Solver can consistently improve the sampling quality over previous methods on different DPMs with a wide range of resolutions up to 1024times1024. Notably, we achieve 10.38 FID (NFE=5) on unconditional FFHQ and 0.394 MSE (NFE=5, CFG=7.5) on Stable-Diffusion-2.1. Code is available at https://github.com/wl-zhao/DC-Solver

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

Comprehensively understanding and accurately predicting the performance of large language models across diverse downstream tasks has emerged as a pivotal challenge in NLP research. The pioneering scaling law on downstream works demonstrated intrinsic similarities within model families and utilized such similarities for performance prediction. However, they tend to overlook the similarities between model families and only consider design factors listed in the original scaling law. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a novel framework, Collaborative Performance Prediction (CPP), which significantly enhances prediction accuracy by leveraging the historical performance of various models on downstream tasks and other design factors for both model and task. We also collect a collaborative data sourced from online platforms containing both historical performance and additional design factors. With the support of the collaborative data, CPP not only surpasses traditional scaling laws in predicting the performance of scaled LLMs but also facilitates a detailed analysis of factor importance, an area previously overlooked.

Sports competitions are widely researched in computer and social science, with the goal of understanding how players act under uncertainty. While there is an abundance of computational work on player metrics prediction based on past performance, very few attempts to incorporate out-of-game signals have been made. Specifically, it was previously unclear whether linguistic signals gathered from players' interviews can add information which does not appear in performance metrics. To bridge that gap, we define text classification tasks of predicting deviations from mean in NBA players' in-game actions, which are associated with strategic choices, player behavior and risk, using their choice of language prior to the game. We collected a dataset of transcripts from key NBA players' pre-game interviews and their in-game performance metrics, totalling in 5,226 interview-metric pairs. We design neural models for players' action prediction based on increasingly more complex aspects of the language signals in their open-ended interviews. Our models can make their predictions based on the textual signal alone, or on a combination with signals from past-performance metrics. Our text-based models outperform strong baselines trained on performance metrics only, demonstrating the importance of language usage for action prediction. Moreover, the models that employ both textual input and past-performance metrics produced the best results. Finally, as neural networks are notoriously difficult to interpret, we propose a method for gaining further insight into what our models have learned. Particularly, we present an LDA-based analysis, where we interpret model predictions in terms of correlated topics. We find that our best performing textual model is most associated with topics that are intuitively related to each prediction task and that better models yield higher correlation with more informative topics.

The effectiveness of recommendation systems is pivotal to user engagement and satisfaction in online platforms. As these recommendation systems increasingly influence user choices, their evaluation transcends mere technical performance and becomes central to business success. This paper addresses the multifaceted nature of recommendations system evaluation by introducing a comprehensive suite of metrics, each tailored to capture a distinct aspect of system performance. We discuss * Similarity Metrics: to quantify the precision of content-based filtering mechanisms and assess the accuracy of collaborative filtering techniques. * Candidate Generation Metrics: to evaluate how effectively the system identifies a broad yet relevant range of items. * Predictive Metrics: to assess the accuracy of forecasted user preferences. * Ranking Metrics: to evaluate the effectiveness of the order in which recommendations are presented. * Business Metrics: to align the performance of the recommendation system with economic objectives. Our approach emphasizes the contextual application of these metrics and their interdependencies. In this paper, we identify the strengths and limitations of current evaluation practices and highlight the nuanced trade-offs that emerge when optimizing recommendation systems across different metrics. The paper concludes by proposing a framework for selecting and interpreting these metrics to not only improve system performance but also to advance business goals. This work is to aid researchers and practitioners in critically assessing recommendation systems and fosters the development of more nuanced, effective, and economically viable personalization strategies. Our code is available at GitHub - https://github.com/aryan-jadon/Evaluation-Metrics-for-Recommendation-Systems.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: first use model and data size to predict a task-specific loss, and then use this task loss to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks written in ranked classification format, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We have higher prediction error on four other tasks (average absolute error 6.9) and find that these are often tasks with higher variance in task metrics. We also find that using less compute to train fewer ladder models tends to deteriorate predictions. Finally, we empirically show that our design choices and the two-step approach lead to superior performance in establishing scaling laws.

Excellent tail performance is crucial for modern machine learning tasks, such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and risk-sensitive decision making, as it ensures the effective handling of challenging samples within a dataset. Tail performance is also a vital determinant of success for personalized recommender systems to reduce the risk of losing users with low satisfaction. This study introduces a "safe" collaborative filtering method that prioritizes recommendation quality for less-satisfied users rather than focusing on the average performance. Our approach minimizes the conditional value at risk (CVaR), which represents the average risk over the tails of users' loss. To overcome computational challenges for web-scale recommender systems, we develop a robust yet practical algorithm that extends the most scalable method, implicit alternating least squares (iALS). Empirical evaluation on real-world datasets demonstrates the excellent tail performance of our approach while maintaining competitive computational efficiency.

What makes a good Large Language Model (LLM)? That it performs well on the relevant benchmarks -- which hopefully measure, with some validity, the presence of capabilities that are also challenged in real application. But what makes the model perform well? What gives a model its abilities? We take a recently introduced type of benchmark that is meant to challenge capabilities in a goal-directed, agentive context through self-play of conversational games, and analyse how performance develops as a function of model characteristics like number of parameters, or type of training. We find that while there is a clear relationship between number of parameters and performance, there is still a wide spread of performance points within a given size bracket, which is to be accounted for by training parameters such as fine-tuning data quality and method. From a more practical angle, we also find a certain degree of unpredictability about performance across access methods, possible due to unexposed sampling parameters, and a, very welcome, performance stability against at least moderate weight quantisation during inference.

The performance of machine learning models often degrades after deployment due to data distribution shifts. In many use cases, it is impossible to calculate the post-deployment performance because labels are unavailable or significantly delayed. Proxy methods for evaluating model performance stability, like drift detection techniques, do not properly quantify data distribution shift impact. As a solution, we propose a robust and accurate performance estimation method for evaluating ML classification models on unlabeled data that accurately quantifies the impact of covariate shift on model performance. We call it multi-calibrated confidence-based performance estimation (M-CBPE). It is model and data-type agnostic and works for any performance metric. It does not require access to the monitored model - it uses the model predictions and probability estimates. M-CBPE does not need user input on the nature of the covariate shift as it fully learns from the data. We evaluate it with over 600 dataset-model pairs from US census data and compare it with multiple benchmarks using several evaluation metrics. Results show that M-CBPE is the best method to estimate the performance of classification models in any evaluation context.

This paper presents a comprehensive study on resume classification to reduce the time and labor needed to screen an overwhelming number of applications significantly, while improving the selection of suitable candidates. A total of 6,492 resumes are extracted from 24,933 job applications for 252 positions designated into four levels of experience for Clinical Research Coordinators (CRC). Each resume is manually annotated to its most appropriate CRC position by experts through several rounds of triple annotation to establish guidelines. As a result, a high Kappa score of 61% is achieved for inter-annotator agreement. Given this dataset, novel transformer-based classification models are developed for two tasks: the first task takes a resume and classifies it to a CRC level (T1), and the second task takes both a resume and a job description to apply and predicts if the application is suited to the job T2. Our best models using section encoding and multi-head attention decoding give results of 73.3% to T1 and 79.2% to T2. Our analysis shows that the prediction errors are mostly made among adjacent CRC levels, which are hard for even experts to distinguish, implying the practical value of our models in real HR platforms.

Language models demonstrate both quantitative improvement and new qualitative capabilities with increasing scale. Despite their potentially transformative impact, these new capabilities are as yet poorly characterized. In order to inform future research, prepare for disruptive new model capabilities, and ameliorate socially harmful effects, it is vital that we understand the present and near-future capabilities and limitations of language models. To address this challenge, we introduce the Beyond the Imitation Game benchmark (BIG-bench). BIG-bench currently consists of 204 tasks, contributed by 442 authors across 132 institutions. Task topics are diverse, drawing problems from linguistics, childhood development, math, common-sense reasoning, biology, physics, social bias, software development, and beyond. BIG-bench focuses on tasks that are believed to be beyond the capabilities of current language models. We evaluate the behavior of OpenAI's GPT models, Google-internal dense transformer architectures, and Switch-style sparse transformers on BIG-bench, across model sizes spanning millions to hundreds of billions of parameters. In addition, a team of human expert raters performed all tasks in order to provide a strong baseline. Findings include: model performance and calibration both improve with scale, but are poor in absolute terms (and when compared with rater performance); performance is remarkably similar across model classes, though with benefits from sparsity; tasks that improve gradually and predictably commonly involve a large knowledge or memorization component, whereas tasks that exhibit "breakthrough" behavior at a critical scale often involve multiple steps or components, or brittle metrics; social bias typically increases with scale in settings with ambiguous context, but this can be improved with prompting.

Most popular benchmarks for comparing LLMs rely on a limited set of prompt templates, which may not fully capture the LLMs' abilities and can affect the reproducibility of results on leaderboards. Many recent works empirically verify prompt sensitivity and advocate for changes in LLM evaluation. In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the performance distribution across many prompt variants instead of finding a single prompt to evaluate with. We introduce PromptEval, a method for estimating performance across a large set of prompts borrowing strength across prompts and examples to produce accurate estimates under practical evaluation budgets. The resulting distribution can be used to obtain performance quantiles to construct various robust performance metrics (e.g., top 95% quantile or median). We prove that PromptEval consistently estimates the performance distribution and demonstrate its efficacy empirically on three prominent LLM benchmarks: MMLU, BIG-bench Hard, and LMentry. For example, PromptEval can accurately estimate performance quantiles across 100 prompt templates on MMLU with a budget equivalent to two single-prompt evaluations. Our code and data can be found at https://github.com/felipemaiapolo/prompt-eval.

Accurate stock market predictions following earnings reports are crucial for investors. Traditional methods, particularly classical machine learning models, struggle with these predictions because they cannot effectively process and interpret extensive textual data contained in earnings reports and often overlook nuances that influence market movements. This paper introduces an advanced approach by employing Large Language Models (LLMs) instruction fine-tuned with a novel combination of instruction-based techniques and quantized low-rank adaptation (QLoRA) compression. Our methodology integrates 'base factors', such as financial metric growth and earnings transcripts, with 'external factors', including recent market indices performances and analyst grades, to create a rich, supervised dataset. This comprehensive dataset enables our models to achieve superior predictive performance in terms of accuracy, weighted F1, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), especially evident in the comparison with benchmarks such as GPT-4. We specifically highlight the efficacy of the llama-3-8b-Instruct-4bit model, which showcases significant improvements over baseline models. The paper also discusses the potential of expanding the output capabilities to include a 'Hold' option and extending the prediction horizon, aiming to accommodate various investment styles and time frames. This study not only demonstrates the power of integrating cutting-edge AI with fine-tuned financial data but also paves the way for future research in enhancing AI-driven financial analysis tools.

The impact of person-job fit on job satisfaction and performance is widely acknowledged, which highlights the importance of providing workers with next steps at the right time in their career. This task of predicting the next step in a career is known as career path prediction, and has diverse applications such as turnover prevention and internal job mobility. Existing methods to career path prediction rely on large amounts of private career history data to model the interactions between job titles and companies. We propose leveraging the unexplored textual descriptions that are part of work experience sections in resumes. We introduce a structured dataset of 2,164 anonymized career histories, annotated with ESCO occupation labels. Based on this dataset, we present a novel representation learning approach, CareerBERT, specifically designed for work history data. We develop a skill-based model and a text-based model for career path prediction, which achieve 35.24% and 39.61% recall@10 respectively on our dataset. Finally, we show that both approaches are complementary as a hybrid approach achieves the strongest result with 43.01% recall@10.

Personalized treatment effect estimates are often of interest in high-stakes applications -- thus, before deploying a model estimating such effects in practice, one needs to be sure that the best candidate from the ever-growing machine learning toolbox for this task was chosen. Unfortunately, due to the absence of counterfactual information in practice, it is usually not possible to rely on standard validation metrics for doing so, leading to a well-known model selection dilemma in the treatment effect estimation literature. While some solutions have recently been investigated, systematic understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different model selection criteria is still lacking. In this paper, instead of attempting to declare a global `winner', we therefore empirically investigate success- and failure modes of different selection criteria. We highlight that there is a complex interplay between selection strategies, candidate estimators and the data used for comparing them, and provide interesting insights into the relative (dis)advantages of different criteria alongside desiderata for the design of further illuminating empirical studies in this context.

Large Language Models (LLMs) changed the way we design and interact with software systems. Their ability to process and extract information from text has drastically improved productivity in a number of routine tasks. Developers that want to include these models in their software stack, however, face a dreadful challenge: debugging LLMs' inconsistent behavior across minor variations of the prompt. We therefore introduce two metrics for classification tasks, namely sensitivity and consistency, which are complementary to task performance. First, sensitivity measures changes of predictions across rephrasings of the prompt, and does not require access to ground truth labels. Instead, consistency measures how predictions vary across rephrasings for elements of the same class. We perform an empirical comparison of these metrics on text classification tasks, using them as guideline for understanding failure modes of the LLM. Our hope is that sensitivity and consistency will be helpful to guide prompt engineering and obtain LLMs that balance robustness with performance.

Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual performance or chose the best team but did not highlight the batter's potential. On the other hand, our research aims to evaluate a player's impact while considering his control in various circumstances. This paper seeks to understand the conundrum behind this impactful performance by determining how much control a player has over the circumstances and generating the "Effective Runs",a new measure we propose. We first gathered the fundamental cricket data from open-source datasets; however, variables like pitch, weather, and control were not readily available for all matches. As a result, we compiled our corpus data by analyzing the commentary of the match summaries. This gave us an insight into the particular game's weather and pitch conditions. Furthermore, ball-by-ball inspection from the commentary led us to determine the control of the shots played by the batter. We collected data for the entire One Day International career, up to February 2022, of 3 prominent cricket players: Rohit G Sharma, David A Warner, and Kane S Williamson. Lastly, to prepare the dataset, we encoded, scaled, and split the dataset to train and test Machine Learning Algorithms. We used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression, and Random Forest Regression on each player's data individually to train them and predict the Impact the player will have on the game. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest give the best predictions accuracy of 90.16 percent and 87.12 percent, respectively.

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

This paper provides a detailed analysis of the NeuroPiano dataset, which comprise 104 audio recordings of student piano performances accompanied with 2255 textual feedback and ratings given by professional pianists. We offer a statistical overview of the dataset, focusing on the standardization of annotations and inter-annotator agreement across 12 evaluative questions concerning performance quality. We also explore the predictive relationship between audio features and teacher ratings via machine learning, as well as annotations provided for text analysis of the responses.

Understanding player shooting profiles is an essential part of basketball analysis: knowing where certain opposing players like to shoot from can help coaches neutralize offensive gameplans from their opponents; understanding where their players are most comfortable can lead them to developing more effective offensive strategies. An automatic tool that can provide these performance profiles in a timely manner can become invaluable for coaches to maximize both the effectiveness of their game plan as well as the time dedicated to practice and other related activities. Additionally, basketball is dictated by many variables, such as playstyle and game dynamics, that can change the flow of the game and, by extension, player performance profiles. It is crucial that the performance profiles can reflect the diverse playstyles, as well as the fast-changing dynamics of the game. We present a tool that can visualize player performance profiles in a timely manner while taking into account factors such as play-style and game dynamics. Our approach generates interpretable heatmaps that allow us to identify and analyze how non-spatial factors, such as game dynamics or playstyle, affect player performance profiles.

As AI chatbots become ubiquitous, voice interaction presents a compelling way to enable rapid, high-bandwidth communication for both semantic and social signals. This has driven research into Large Audio Models (LAMs) to power voice-native experiences. However, aligning LAM development with user goals requires a clear understanding of user needs and preferences to establish reliable progress metrics. This study addresses these challenges by introducing an interactive approach to evaluate LAMs and collecting 7,500 LAM interactions from 484 participants. Through topic modeling of user queries, we identify primary use cases for audio interfaces. We then analyze user preference rankings and qualitative feedback to determine which models best align with user needs. Finally, we evaluate how static benchmarks predict interactive performance - our analysis reveals no individual benchmark strongly correlates with interactive results (tau leq 0.33 for all benchmarks). While combining multiple coarse-grained features yields modest predictive power (R^2=0.30), only two out of twenty datasets on spoken question answering and age prediction show significantly positive correlations. This suggests a clear need to develop LAM evaluations that better correlate with user preferences.

Current rating systems update ratings incrementally and may not always accurately reflect a player's true strength at all times, especially for rapidly improving players or very rusty players. To overcome this, we explore a method to estimate player ratings directly from game moves and clock times. We compiled a benchmark dataset from Lichess, encompassing various time controls and including move sequences and clock times. Our model architecture comprises a CNN to learn positional features, which are then integrated with clock-time data into a bidirectional LSTM, predicting player ratings after each move. The model achieved an MAE of 182 rating points in the test data. Additionally, we applied our model to the 2024 IEEE Big Data Cup Chess Puzzle Difficulty Competition dataset, predicted puzzle ratings and achieved competitive results. This model is the first to use no hand-crafted features to estimate chess ratings and also the first to output a rating prediction for each move. Our method highlights the potential of using move-based rating estimation for enhancing rating systems and potentially other applications such as cheating detection.

Scaling data and compute is critical to the success of machine learning. However, scaling demands predictability: we want methods to not only perform well with more compute or data, but also have their performance be predictable from small-scale runs, without running the large-scale experiment. In this paper, we show that value-based off-policy RL methods are predictable despite community lore regarding their pathological behavior. First, we show that data and compute requirements to attain a given performance level lie on a Pareto frontier, controlled by the updates-to-data (UTD) ratio. By estimating this frontier, we can predict this data requirement when given more compute, and this compute requirement when given more data. Second, we determine the optimal allocation of a total resource budget across data and compute for a given performance and use it to determine hyperparameters that maximize performance for a given budget. Third, this scaling behavior is enabled by first estimating predictable relationships between hyperparameters, which is used to manage effects of overfitting and plasticity loss unique to RL. We validate our approach using three algorithms: SAC, BRO, and PQL on DeepMind Control, OpenAI gym, and IsaacGym, when extrapolating to higher levels of data, compute, budget, or performance.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in generalizing to new tasks in a zero-shot or few-shot manner. However, the extent to which LLMs can comprehend user preferences based on their previous behavior remains an emerging and still unclear research question. Traditionally, Collaborative Filtering (CF) has been the most effective method for these tasks, predominantly relying on the extensive volume of rating data. In contrast, LLMs typically demand considerably less data while maintaining an exhaustive world knowledge about each item, such as movies or products. In this paper, we conduct a thorough examination of both CF and LLMs within the classic task of user rating prediction, which involves predicting a user's rating for a candidate item based on their past ratings. We investigate various LLMs in different sizes, ranging from 250M to 540B parameters and evaluate their performance in zero-shot, few-shot, and fine-tuning scenarios. We conduct comprehensive analysis to compare between LLMs and strong CF methods, and find that zero-shot LLMs lag behind traditional recommender models that have the access to user interaction data, indicating the importance of user interaction data. However, through fine-tuning, LLMs achieve comparable or even better performance with only a small fraction of the training data, demonstrating their potential through data efficiency.

Current research on generative language models (GLMs) for automated text scoring (ATS) has focused almost exclusively on querying proprietary models via Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). Yet such practices raise issues around transparency and security, and these methods offer little in the way of efficiency or customizability. With the recent proliferation of smaller, open-source models, there is the option to explore GLMs with computers equipped with modest, consumer-grade hardware, that is, for the "GPU poor." In this study, we analyze the performance and efficiency of open-source, small-scale GLMs for ATS. Results show that GLMs can be fine-tuned to achieve adequate, though not state-of-the-art, performance. In addition to ATS, we take small steps towards analyzing models' capacity for generating feedback by prompting GLMs to explain their scores. Model-generated feedback shows promise, but requires more rigorous evaluation focused on targeted use cases.

In this paper, we describe our participation in the subtask 1 of CASE-2022, Event Causality Identification with Casual News Corpus. We address the Causal Relation Identification (CRI) task by exploiting a set of simple yet complementary techniques for fine-tuning language models (LMs) on a small number of annotated examples (i.e., a few-shot configuration). We follow a prompt-based prediction approach for fine-tuning LMs in which the CRI task is treated as a masked language modeling problem (MLM). This approach allows LMs natively pre-trained on MLM problems to directly generate textual responses to CRI-specific prompts. We compare the performance of this method against ensemble techniques trained on the entire dataset. Our best-performing submission was fine-tuned with only 256 instances per class, 15.7% of the all available data, and yet obtained the second-best precision (0.82), third-best accuracy (0.82), and an F1-score (0.85) very close to what was reported by the winner team (0.86).

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false questions when they are provided in the right format. Thus we can approach self-evaluation on open-ended sampling tasks by asking models to first propose answers, and then to evaluate the probability "P(True)" that their answers are correct. We find encouraging performance, calibration, and scaling for P(True) on a diverse array of tasks. Performance at self-evaluation further improves when we allow models to consider many of their own samples before predicting the validity of one specific possibility. Next, we investigate whether models can be trained to predict "P(IK)", the probability that "I know" the answer to a question, without reference to any particular proposed answer. Models perform well at predicting P(IK) and partially generalize across tasks, though they struggle with calibration of P(IK) on new tasks. The predicted P(IK) probabilities also increase appropriately in the presence of relevant source materials in the context, and in the presence of hints towards the solution of mathematical word problems. We hope these observations lay the groundwork for training more honest models, and for investigating how honesty generalizes to cases where models are trained on objectives other than the imitation of human writing.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

We introduce a novel class of sample-based explanations we term high-dimensional representers, that can be used to explain the predictions of a regularized high-dimensional model in terms of importance weights for each of the training samples. Our workhorse is a novel representer theorem for general regularized high-dimensional models, which decomposes the model prediction in terms of contributions from each of the training samples: with positive (negative) values corresponding to positive (negative) impact training samples to the model's prediction. We derive consequences for the canonical instances of ell_1 regularized sparse models, and nuclear norm regularized low-rank models. As a case study, we further investigate the application of low-rank models in the context of collaborative filtering, where we instantiate high-dimensional representers for specific popular classes of models. Finally, we study the empirical performance of our proposed methods on three real-world binary classification datasets and two recommender system datasets. We also showcase the utility of high-dimensional representers in explaining model recommendations.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

Memorization, or the tendency of large language models (LLMs) to output entire sequences from their training data verbatim, is a key concern for safely deploying language models. In particular, it is vital to minimize a model's memorization of sensitive datapoints such as those containing personal identifiable information (PII). The prevalence of such undesirable memorization can pose issues for model trainers, and may even require discarding an otherwise functional model. We therefore seek to predict which sequences will be memorized before a large model's full train-time by extrapolating the memorization behavior of lower-compute trial runs. We measure memorization of the Pythia model suite and plot scaling laws for forecasting memorization, allowing us to provide equi-compute recommendations to maximize the reliability (recall) of such predictions. We additionally provide further novel discoveries on the distribution of memorization scores across models and data. We release all code and data necessary to reproduce the results in this paper at https://github.com/EleutherAI/pythia

Modern Code Review (MCR) is an informal tool-assisted quality assurance practice. It relies on the asynchronous communication among the authors of code changes and reviewers, who are developers that provide feedback. However, from candidate developers, some are able to provide better feedback than others given a particular context. The selection of reviewers is thus an important task, which can benefit from automated support. Many approaches have been proposed in this direction, using for example data from code review repositories to recommend reviewers. In this paper, we propose the use of team-related features to improve the performance of predictions that are helpful to build code reviewer recommenders, with our target predictions being the identification of reviewers that would participate in a review and the provided amount of feedback. We evaluate the prediction power of these features, which are related to code ownership, workload, and team relationship. This evaluation was done by carefully addressing challenges imposed by the MCR domain, such as temporal aspects of the dataset and unbalanced classes. Moreover, given that it is currently unknown how much past data is needed for building MCR prediction models with acceptable performance, we explore the amount of past data used to build prediction models. Our results show that, individually, features related to code ownership have the best prediction power. However, based on feature selection, we conclude that all proposed features together with lines of code can make the best predictions for both reviewer participation and amount of feedback. Regarding the amount of past data, the timeframes of 3, 6, 9, and 12 months of data produce similar results. Therefore, models can be trained considering short timeframes, thus reducing the computational costs with negligible impact in the prediction performance ...

We introduce MURA, a large dataset of musculoskeletal radiographs containing 40,561 images from 14,863 studies, where each study is manually labeled by radiologists as either normal or abnormal. To evaluate models robustly and to get an estimate of radiologist performance, we collect additional labels from six board-certified Stanford radiologists on the test set, consisting of 207 musculoskeletal studies. On this test set, the majority vote of a group of three radiologists serves as gold standard. We train a 169-layer DenseNet baseline model to detect and localize abnormalities. Our model achieves an AUROC of 0.929, with an operating point of 0.815 sensitivity and 0.887 specificity. We compare our model and radiologists on the Cohen's kappa statistic, which expresses the agreement of our model and of each radiologist with the gold standard. Model performance is comparable to the best radiologist performance in detecting abnormalities on finger and wrist studies. However, model performance is lower than best radiologist performance in detecting abnormalities on elbow, forearm, hand, humerus, and shoulder studies. We believe that the task is a good challenge for future research. To encourage advances, we have made our dataset freely available at https://stanfordmlgroup.github.io/competitions/mura .

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

Training models to act as agents that can effectively navigate and perform actions in a complex environment, such as a web browser, has typically been challenging due to lack of training data. Large language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated some capability to navigate novel environments as agents in a zero-shot or few-shot fashion, purely guided by natural language instructions as prompts. Recent research has also demonstrated LLMs have the capability to exceed their base performance through self-improvement, i.e. fine-tuning on data generated by the model itself. In this work, we explore the extent to which LLMs can self-improve their performance as agents in long-horizon tasks in a complex environment using the WebArena benchmark. In WebArena, an agent must autonomously navigate and perform actions on web pages to achieve a specified objective. We explore fine-tuning on three distinct synthetic training data mixtures and achieve a 31\% improvement in task completion rate over the base model on the WebArena benchmark through a self-improvement procedure. We additionally contribute novel evaluation metrics for assessing the performance, robustness, capabilities, and quality of trajectories of our fine-tuned agent models to a greater degree than simple, aggregate-level benchmark scores currently used to measure self-improvement.

Recently, there has been a growing trend of utilizing Large Language Model (LLM) to evaluate the quality of other LLMs. Many studies have employed proprietary close-source models, especially GPT4, as the evaluator. Alternatively, other works have fine-tuned judge models based on open-source LLMs as the evaluator. In this study, we conduct an empirical study of different judge models on their evaluation capability. Our findings indicate that although the fine-tuned judge models achieve high accuracy on in-domain test sets, even surpassing GPT4, they are inherently task-specific classifiers, and their generalizability and fairness severely underperform GPT4.

Class-incremental learning (CIL) is a particularly challenging variant of continual learning, where the goal is to learn to discriminate between all classes presented in an incremental fashion. Existing approaches often suffer from excessive forgetting and imbalance of the scores assigned to classes that have not been seen together during training. In this study, we introduce a novel approach, Prediction Error-based Classification (PEC), which differs from traditional discriminative and generative classification paradigms. PEC computes a class score by measuring the prediction error of a model trained to replicate the outputs of a frozen random neural network on data from that class. The method can be interpreted as approximating a classification rule based on Gaussian Process posterior variance. PEC offers several practical advantages, including sample efficiency, ease of tuning, and effectiveness even when data are presented one class at a time. Our empirical results show that PEC performs strongly in single-pass-through-data CIL, outperforming other rehearsal-free baselines in all cases and rehearsal-based methods with moderate replay buffer size in most cases across multiple benchmarks.

Social determinants of health (SDoH) have an important impact on patient outcomes but are incompletely collected from the electronic health records (EHR). This study researched the ability of large language models to extract SDoH from free text in EHRs, where they are most commonly documented, and explored the role of synthetic clinical text for improving the extraction of these scarcely documented, yet extremely valuable, clinical data. 800 patient notes were annotated for SDoH categories, and several transformer-based models were evaluated. The study also experimented with synthetic data generation and assessed for algorithmic bias. Our best-performing models were fine-tuned Flan-T5 XL (macro-F1 0.71) for any SDoH, and Flan-T5 XXL (macro-F1 0.70). The benefit of augmenting fine-tuning with synthetic data varied across model architecture and size, with smaller Flan-T5 models (base and large) showing the greatest improvements in performance (delta F1 +0.12 to +0.23). Model performance was similar on the in-hospital system dataset but worse on the MIMIC-III dataset. Our best-performing fine-tuned models outperformed zero- and few-shot performance of ChatGPT-family models for both tasks. These fine-tuned models were less likely than ChatGPT to change their prediction when race/ethnicity and gender descriptors were added to the text, suggesting less algorithmic bias (p<0.05). At the patient-level, our models identified 93.8% of patients with adverse SDoH, while ICD-10 codes captured 2.0%. Our method can effectively extracted SDoH information from clinic notes, performing better compare to GPT zero- and few-shot settings. These models could enhance real-world evidence on SDoH and aid in identifying patients needing social support.

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Optimizing scientific software is a difficult task because codebases are often large and complex, and performance can depend upon several factors including the algorithm, its implementation, and hardware among others. Causes of poor performance can originate from disparate sources and be difficult to diagnose. Recent years have seen a multitude of work that use large language models (LLMs) to assist in software development tasks. However, these tools are trained to model the distribution of code as text, and are not specifically designed to understand performance aspects of code. In this work, we introduce a reinforcement learning based methodology to align the outputs of code LLMs with performance. This allows us to build upon the current code modeling capabilities of LLMs and extend them to generate better performing code. We demonstrate that our fine-tuned model improves the expected speedup of generated code over base models for a set of benchmark tasks from 0.9 to 1.6 for serial code and 1.9 to 4.5 for OpenMP code.

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a critical task for many applications, as its accuracy has a direct impact on user experience and platform revenue. In recent years, CTR prediction has been widely studied in both academia and industry, resulting in a wide variety of CTR prediction models. Unfortunately, there is still a lack of standardized benchmarks and uniform evaluation protocols for CTR prediction research. This leads to non-reproducible or even inconsistent experimental results among existing studies, which largely limits the practical value and potential impact of their research. In this work, we aim to perform open benchmarking for CTR prediction and present a rigorous comparison of different models in a reproducible manner. To this end, we ran over 7,000 experiments for more than 12,000 GPU hours in total to re-evaluate 24 existing models on multiple datasets and settings. Surprisingly, our experiments show that with sufficient hyper-parameter search and model tuning, many deep models have smaller differences than expected. The results also reveal that making real progress on the modeling of CTR prediction is indeed a very challenging research task. We believe that our benchmarking work could not only allow researchers to gauge the effectiveness of new models conveniently but also make them fairly compare with the state of the arts. We have publicly released the benchmarking code, evaluation protocols, and hyper-parameter settings of our work to promote reproducible research in this field.

Sparsity in the structure of Neural Networks can lead to less energy consumption, less memory usage, faster computation times on convenient hardware, and automated machine learning. If sparsity gives rise to certain kinds of structure, it can explain automatically obtained features during learning. We provide insights into experiments in which we show how sparsity can be achieved through prior initialization, pruning, and during learning, and answer questions on the relationship between the structure of Neural Networks and their performance. This includes the first work of inducing priors from network theory into Recurrent Neural Networks and an architectural performance prediction during a Neural Architecture Search. Within our experiments, we show how magnitude class blinded pruning achieves 97.5% on MNIST with 80% compression and re-training, which is 0.5 points more than without compression, that magnitude class uniform pruning is significantly inferior to it and how a genetic search enhanced with performance prediction achieves 82.4% on CIFAR10. Further, performance prediction for Recurrent Networks learning the Reber grammar shows an R^2 of up to 0.81 given only structural information.

Modern ML systems ingest data aggregated from diverse sources, such as synthetic, human-annotated, and live customer traffic. Understanding which examples are important to the performance of a learning algorithm is crucial for efficient model training. Recently, a growing body of literature has given rise to various "influence scores," which use training artifacts such as model confidence or checkpointed gradients to identify important subsets of data. However, these methods have primarily been developed in computer vision settings, and it remains unclear how well they generalize to language-based tasks using pretrained models. In this paper, we explore the applicability of influence scores in language classification tasks. We evaluate a diverse subset of these scores on the SNLI dataset by quantifying accuracy changes in response to pruning training data through random and influence-score-based sampling. We then stress-test one of the scores -- "variance of gradients" (VoG) from Agarwal et al. (2022) -- in an NLU model stack that was exposed to dynamic user speech patterns in a voice assistant type of setting. Our experiments demonstrate that in many cases, encoder-based language models can be finetuned on roughly 50% of the original data without degradation in performance metrics. Along the way, we summarize lessons learned from applying out-of-the-box implementations of influence scores, quantify the effects of noisy and class-imbalanced data, and offer recommendations on score-based sampling for better accuracy and training efficiency.

In this study, a Turkish visual instruction model was developed and various model architectures and dataset combinations were analysed to improve the performance of this model. The Cosmos-LLaVA model, which is built by combining different large language models and image coders, is designed to overcome the deficiencies in the Turkish language. In the experiments, the effects of fine-tuning with various datasets on the model performance are analysed in detail. The results show that model architecture and dataset selection have a significant impact on performance. Bu cal{\i}smada bir T\"urkce g\"orsel talimat modeli gelistirilerek bu modelin performans{\i}n{\i} art{\i}rmaya y\"onelik cesitli model mimarileri ve veri k\"umesi kombinasyonlar{\i} derinlemesine incelenmistir. Farkl{\i} b\"uy\"uk dil modelleri ve g\"or\"unt\"u kodlay{\i}c{\i}lar{\i}n{\i}n bir araya getirilmesiyle olusturulan Cosmos-LLaVA modeli, T\"urkce dilindeki eksiklikleri gidermeye y\"onelik olarak tasarlanm{\i}st{\i}r. Yap{\i}lan deneylerde, cesitli veri k\"umeleri ile yap{\i}lan ince ayarlar{\i}n model performans{\i}n{\i} nas{\i}l etkiledigi detayl{\i} olarak ele al{\i}nm{\i}st{\i}r. Sonuclar, model mimarisi ve veri k\"umesi seciminin performans \"uzerinde \"onemli bir etkiye sahip oldugunu g\"ostermektedir.

Pre-trained large language models (LLMs) can be tailored to adhere to human instructions through instruction tuning. However, due to shifts in the distribution of test-time data, they may not always execute instructions accurately, potentially generating factual errors or misaligned content when acting as chat assistants. To enhance the reliability of LLMs in following instructions, we propose the study of selective instruction following, whereby the system declines to execute instructions if the anticipated response quality is low. We train judge models that can predict numerical quality scores for model responses. To address data scarcity, we introduce Self-J, a novel self-training framework for developing judge models without needing human-annotated quality scores. Our method leverages the model's inherent self-evaluation capability to extract information about response quality from labeled instruction-tuning data. It incorporates a gold reference answer to facilitate self-evaluation and recalibrates by assessing the semantic similarity between the response sample and the gold reference. During the training phase, we implement self-distillation as a regularization technique to enhance the capability of reference-free estimation. To validate alignment evaluation on general instruction-following tasks, we collect large-scale high-quality instructions from Hugging Face for model training and evaluation. Extensive experiments on five open-source models show that our method correlates much more with GPT-4 than strong baselines, e.g., supervised models distilled from GPT-4 and GPT-3.5-turbo. Our analysis shows our model's strong generalization across domains. Additionally, our judge models serve as good reward models, e.g., boosting WizardLM-13B-V1.2 from 89.17 to 92.48 and from 12.03 to 15.90 in version v1 and v2 of AlpacaEval respectively using best-of-32 sampling with our judge models.

Given an algorithmic predictor that is accurate on some source population consisting of strategic human decision subjects, will it remain accurate if the population respond to it? In our setting, an agent or a user corresponds to a sample (X,Y) drawn from a distribution D and will face a model h and its classification result h(X). Agents can modify X to adapt to h, which will incur a distribution shift on (X,Y). Our formulation is motivated by applications where the deployed machine learning models are subjected to human agents, and will ultimately face responsive and interactive data distributions. We formalize the discussions of the transferability of a model by studying how the performance of the model trained on the available source distribution (data) would translate to the performance on its induced domain. We provide both upper bounds for the performance gap due to the induced domain shift, as well as lower bounds for the trade-offs that a classifier has to suffer on either the source training distribution or the induced target distribution. We provide further instantiated analysis for two popular domain adaptation settings, including covariate shift and target shift.

As large language models (LLMs) are adopted as a fundamental component of language technologies, it is crucial to accurately characterize their performance. Because choices in prompt design can strongly influence model behavior, this design process is critical in effectively using any modern pre-trained generative language model. In this work, we focus on LLM sensitivity to a quintessential class of meaning-preserving design choices: prompt formatting. We find that several widely used open-source LLMs are extremely sensitive to subtle changes in prompt formatting in few-shot settings, with performance differences of up to 76 accuracy points when evaluated using LLaMA-2-13B. Sensitivity remains even when increasing model size, the number of few-shot examples, or performing instruction tuning. Our analysis suggests that work evaluating LLMs with prompting-based methods would benefit from reporting a range of performance across plausible prompt formats, instead of the currently-standard practice of reporting performance on a single format. We also show that format performance only weakly correlates between models, which puts into question the methodological validity of comparing models with an arbitrarily chosen, fixed prompt format. To facilitate systematic analysis we propose FormatSpread, an algorithm that rapidly evaluates a sampled set of plausible prompt formats for a given task, and reports the interval of expected performance without accessing model weights. Furthermore, we present a suite of analyses that characterize the nature of this sensitivity, including exploring the influence of particular atomic perturbations and the internal representation of particular formats.

We propose an approach to estimate the number of samples required for a model to reach a target performance. We find that the power law, the de facto principle to estimate model performance, leads to large error when using a small dataset (e.g., 5 samples per class) for extrapolation. This is because the log-performance error against the log-dataset size follows a nonlinear progression in the few-shot regime followed by a linear progression in the high-shot regime. We introduce a novel piecewise power law (PPL) that handles the two data regimes differently. To estimate the parameters of the PPL, we introduce a random forest regressor trained via meta learning that generalizes across classification/detection tasks, ResNet/ViT based architectures, and random/pre-trained initializations. The PPL improves the performance estimation on average by 37% across 16 classification and 33% across 10 detection datasets, compared to the power law. We further extend the PPL to provide a confidence bound and use it to limit the prediction horizon that reduces over-estimation of data by 76% on classification and 91% on detection datasets.

Databases of electronic health records (EHRs) are increasingly used to inform clinical decisions. Machine learning methods can find patterns in EHRs that are predictive of future adverse outcomes. However, statistical models may be built upon patterns of health-seeking behavior that vary across patient subpopulations, leading to poor predictive performance when training on one patient population and predicting on another. This note proposes two tests to better measure and understand model generalization. We use these tests to compare models derived from two data sources: (i) historical medical records, and (ii) electrocardiogram (EKG) waveforms. In a predictive task, we show that EKG-based models can be more stable than EHR-based models across different patient populations.

The scientific scale-up of large language models (LLMs) necessitates a comprehensive understanding of their scaling properties. However, the existing literature on the scaling properties only yields an incomplete answer: optimization loss decreases predictably as the model size increases, in line with established scaling law; yet no scaling law for task has been established and the task performances are far from predictable during scaling. Task performances typically show minor gains on small models until they improve dramatically once models exceed a size threshold, exemplifying the ``emergent abilities''. In this study, we discover that small models, although they exhibit minor performance, demonstrate critical and consistent task performance improvements that are not captured by conventional evaluation strategies due to insufficient measurement resolution. To measure such improvements, we introduce PassUntil, an evaluation strategy through massive sampling in the decoding phase. We conduct quantitative investigations into the scaling law of task performance. Firstly, a strict task scaling law is identified, enhancing the predictability of task performances. Remarkably, we are able to predict the performance of the 2.4B model on code generation with merely 0.05\% deviation before training starts. Secondly, underpinned by PassUntil, we observe concrete evidence of emergent abilities and ascertain that they are not in conflict with the continuity of performance improvement. Their semblance to break-through is that their scaling curve cannot be fitted by standard scaling law function. We then introduce a mathematical definition for the emergent abilities. Through the definition, we refute a prevalent ``multi-step reasoning hypothesis'' regarding the genesis of emergent abilities and propose a new hypothesis with a satisfying fit to the observed scaling curve.

In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework for multi-task regression, applying random matrix theory to provide precise performance estimations, under high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data distributions. We formulate a multi-task optimization problem as a regularization technique to enable single-task models to leverage multi-task learning information. We derive a closed-form solution for multi-task optimization in the context of linear models. Our analysis provides valuable insights by linking the multi-task learning performance to various model statistics such as raw data covariances, signal-generating hyperplanes, noise levels, as well as the size and number of datasets. We finally propose a consistent estimation of training and testing errors, thereby offering a robust foundation for hyperparameter optimization in multi-task regression scenarios. Experimental validations on both synthetic and real-world datasets in regression and multivariate time series forecasting demonstrate improvements on univariate models, incorporating our method into the training loss and thus leveraging multivariate information.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

This article motivates, describes, and presents the PBSCSR dataset for studying composer style recognition of piano sheet music. Our overarching goal was to create a dataset for studying composer style recognition that is "as accessible as MNIST and as challenging as ImageNet." To achieve this goal, we sample fixed-length bootleg score fragments from piano sheet music images on IMSLP. The dataset itself contains 40,000 62x64 bootleg score images for a 9-way classification task, 100,000 62x64 bootleg score images for a 100-way classification task, and 29,310 unlabeled variable-length bootleg score images for pretraining. The labeled data is presented in a form that mirrors MNIST images, in order to make it extremely easy to visualize, manipulate, and train models in an efficient manner. Additionally, we include relevant metadata to allow access to the underlying raw sheet music images and other related data on IMSLP. We describe several research tasks that could be studied with the dataset, including variations of composer style recognition in a few-shot or zero-shot setting. For tasks that have previously proposed models, we release code and baseline results for future works to compare against. We also discuss open research questions that the PBSCSR data is especially well suited to facilitate research on and areas of fruitful exploration in future work.

The NLP community has long advocated for the construction of multi-annotator datasets to better capture the nuances of language interpretation, subjectivity, and ambiguity. This paper conducts a retrospective study to show how performance scores can vary when a dataset expands from a single annotation per instance to multiple annotations. We propose a novel multi-annotator simulation process to generate datasets with varying annotation budgets. We show that similar datasets with the same annotation budget can lead to varying performance gains. Our findings challenge the popular belief that models trained on multi-annotation examples always lead to better performance than models trained on single or few-annotation examples.

Prompt Tuning is emerging as a scalable and cost-effective method to fine-tune Pretrained Language Models (PLMs), which are often referred to as Large Language Models (LLMs). This study benchmarks the performance and computational efficiency of Prompt Tuning and baselines for multi-label text classification. This is applied to the challenging task of classifying companies into an investment firm's proprietary industry taxonomy, supporting their thematic investment strategy. Text-to-text classification is frequently reported to outperform task-specific classification heads, but has several limitations when applied to a multi-label classification problem where each label consists of multiple tokens: (a) Generated labels may not match any label in the label taxonomy; (b) The fine-tuning process lacks permutation invariance and is sensitive to the order of the provided labels; (c) The model provides binary decisions rather than appropriate confidence scores. Limitation (a) is addressed by applying constrained decoding using Trie Search, which slightly improves classification performance. All limitations (a), (b), and (c) are addressed by replacing the PLM's language head with a classification head, which is referred to as Prompt Tuned Embedding Classification (PTEC). This improves performance significantly, while also reducing computational costs during inference. In our industrial application, the training data is skewed towards well-known companies. We confirm that the model's performance is consistent across both well-known and less-known companies. Our overall results indicate the continuing need to adapt state-of-the-art methods to domain-specific tasks, even in the era of PLMs with strong generalization abilities. We release our codebase and a benchmarking dataset at https://github.com/EQTPartners/PTEC.

The proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) highlights the critical importance of conducting thorough evaluations to discern their comparative advantages, limitations, and optimal use cases. Particularly important is assessing their capacity to accurately retrieve information included in a given prompt. A model's ability to do this significantly influences how effectively it can utilize contextual details, thus impacting its practical efficacy and dependability in real-world applications. Our research analyzes the in-context recall performance of various LLMs using the needle-in-a-haystack method. In this approach, a factoid (the "needle") is embedded within a block of filler text (the "haystack"), which the model is asked to retrieve. We assess the recall performance of each model across various haystack lengths and with varying needle placements to identify performance patterns. This study demonstrates that an LLM's recall capability is not only contingent upon the prompt's content but also may be compromised by biases in its training data. Conversely, adjustments to model architecture, training strategy, or fine-tuning can improve performance. Our analysis provides insight into LLM behavior, offering direction for the development of more effective applications of LLMs.

Product recommendation systems are important for major movie studios during the movie greenlight process and as part of machine learning personalization pipelines. Collaborative Filtering (CF) models have proved to be effective at powering recommender systems for online streaming services with explicit customer feedback data. CF models do not perform well in scenarios in which feedback data is not available, in cold start situations like new product launches, and situations with markedly different customer tiers (e.g., high frequency customers vs. casual customers). Generative natural language models that create useful theme-based representations of an underlying corpus of documents can be used to represent new product descriptions, like new movie plots. When combined with CF, they have shown to increase the performance in cold start situations. Outside of those cases though in which explicit customer feedback is available, recommender engines must rely on binary purchase data, which materially degrades performance. Fortunately, purchase data can be combined with product descriptions to generate meaningful representations of products and customer trajectories in a convenient product space in which proximity represents similarity. Learning to measure the distance between points in this space can be accomplished with a deep neural network that trains on customer histories and on dense vectorizations of product descriptions. We developed a system based on Collaborative (Deep) Metric Learning (CML) to predict the purchase probabilities of new theatrical releases. We trained and evaluated the model using a large dataset of customer histories, and tested the model for a set of movies that were released outside of the training window. Initial experiments show gains relative to models that do not train on collaborative preferences.

The recent success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has garnered significant attention in both academia and industry. Prior research on LLMs has primarily focused on enhancing or leveraging their generalization capabilities in zero- and few-shot settings. However, there has been limited investigation into effectively fine-tuning LLMs for a specific natural language understanding task in supervised settings. In this study, we conduct an experimental analysis by fine-tuning LLMs for the task of Chinese short text matching. We explore various factors that influence performance when fine-tuning LLMs, including task modeling methods, prompt formats, and output formats.

Understanding the quality of a performance evaluation metric is crucial for ensuring that model outputs align with human preferences. However, it remains unclear how well each metric captures the diverse aspects of these preferences, as metrics often excel in one particular area but not across all dimensions. To address this, it is essential to systematically calibrate metrics to specific aspects of human preference, catering to the unique characteristics of each aspect. We introduce MetaMetrics, a calibrated meta-metric designed to evaluate generation tasks across different modalities in a supervised manner. MetaMetrics optimizes the combination of existing metrics to enhance their alignment with human preferences. Our metric demonstrates flexibility and effectiveness in both language and vision downstream tasks, showing significant benefits across various multilingual and multi-domain scenarios. MetaMetrics aligns closely with human preferences and is highly extendable and easily integrable into any application. This makes MetaMetrics a powerful tool for improving the evaluation of generation tasks, ensuring that metrics are more representative of human judgment across diverse contexts.

Text entry is an essential task in our day-to-day digital interactions. Numerous intelligent features have been developed to streamline this process, making text entry more effective, efficient, and fluid. These improvements include sentence prediction and user personalization. However, as deep learning-based language models become the norm for these advanced features, the necessity for data collection and model fine-tuning increases. These challenges can be mitigated by harnessing the in-context learning capability of large language models such as GPT-3.5. This unique feature allows the language model to acquire new skills through prompts, eliminating the need for data collection and fine-tuning. Consequently, large language models can learn various text prediction techniques. We initially showed that, for a sentence prediction task, merely prompting GPT-3.5 surpassed a GPT-2 backed system and is comparable with a fine-tuned GPT-3.5 model, with the latter two methods requiring costly data collection, fine-tuning and post-processing. However, the task of prompting large language models to specialize in specific text prediction tasks can be challenging, particularly for designers without expertise in prompt engineering. To address this, we introduce Promptor, a conversational prompt generation agent designed to engage proactively with designers. Promptor can automatically generate complex prompts tailored to meet specific needs, thus offering a solution to this challenge. We conducted a user study involving 24 participants creating prompts for three intelligent text entry tasks, half of the participants used Promptor while the other half designed prompts themselves. The results show that Promptor-designed prompts result in a 35% increase in similarity and 22% in coherence over those by designers.

User churn, characterized by customers ending their relationship with a business, has profound economic consequences across various Business-to-Customer scenarios. For numerous system-to-user actions, such as promotional discounts and retention campaigns, predicting potential churners stands as a primary objective. In volatile sectors like fantasy sports, unpredictable factors such as international sports events can influence even regular spending habits. Consequently, while transaction history and user-product interaction are valuable in predicting churn, they demand deep domain knowledge and intricate feature engineering. Additionally, feature development for churn prediction systems can be resource-intensive, particularly in production settings serving 200m+ users, where inference pipelines largely focus on feature engineering. This paper conducts an exhaustive study on predicting user churn using historical data. We aim to create a model forecasting customer churn likelihood, facilitating businesses in comprehending attrition trends and formulating effective retention plans. Our approach treats churn prediction as multivariate time series classification, demonstrating that combining user activity and deep neural networks yields remarkable results for churn prediction in complex business-to-customer contexts.

This paper explores the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) for sequential recommendation, which predicts users' future interactions based on their past behavior. We introduce a new concept, "Integrating Recommendation Systems as a New Language in Large Models" (RSLLM), which combines the strengths of traditional recommenders and LLMs. RSLLM uses a unique prompting method that combines ID-based item embeddings from conventional recommendation models with textual item features. It treats users' sequential behaviors as a distinct language and aligns the ID embeddings with the LLM's input space using a projector. We also propose a two-stage LLM fine-tuning framework that refines a pretrained LLM using a combination of two contrastive losses and a language modeling loss. The LLM is first fine-tuned using text-only prompts, followed by target domain fine-tuning with unified prompts. This trains the model to incorporate behavioral knowledge from the traditional sequential recommender into the LLM. Our empirical results validate the effectiveness of our proposed framework.

Ordinal regression refers to classifying object instances into ordinal categories. It has been widely studied in many scenarios, such as medical disease grading, movie rating, etc. Known methods focused only on learning inter-class ordinal relationships, but still incur limitations in distinguishing adjacent categories thus far. In this paper, we propose a simple sequence prediction framework for ordinal regression called Ord2Seq, which, for the first time, transforms each ordinal category label into a special label sequence and thus regards an ordinal regression task as a sequence prediction process. In this way, we decompose an ordinal regression task into a series of recursive binary classification steps, so as to subtly distinguish adjacent categories. Comprehensive experiments show the effectiveness of distinguishing adjacent categories for performance improvement and our new approach exceeds state-of-the-art performances in four different scenarios. Codes are available at https://github.com/wjh892521292/Ord2Seq.

Many computer scientists use the aggregated answers of online workers to represent ground truth. Prior work has shown that aggregation methods such as majority voting are effective for measuring relatively objective features. For subjective features such as semantic connotation, online workers, known for optimizing their hourly earnings, tend to deteriorate in the quality of their responses as they work longer. In this paper, we aim to address this issue by proposing a quality-aware semantic data annotation system. We observe that with timely feedback on workers' performance quantified by quality scores, better informed online workers can maintain the quality of their labeling throughout an extended period of time. We validate the effectiveness of the proposed annotation system through i) evaluating performance based on an expert-labeled dataset, and ii) demonstrating machine learning tasks that can lead to consistent learning behavior with 70%-80% accuracy. Our results suggest that with our system, researchers can collect high-quality answers of subjective semantic features at a large scale.

Existing NAS methods suffer from either an excessive amount of time for repetitive sampling and training of many task-irrelevant architectures. To tackle such limitations of existing NAS methods, we propose a paradigm shift from NAS to a novel conditional Neural Architecture Generation (NAG) framework based on diffusion models, dubbed DiffusionNAG. Specifically, we consider the neural architectures as directed graphs and propose a graph diffusion model for generating them. Moreover, with the guidance of parameterized predictors, DiffusionNAG can flexibly generate task-optimal architectures with the desired properties for diverse tasks, by sampling from a region that is more likely to satisfy the properties. This conditional NAG scheme is significantly more efficient than previous NAS schemes which sample the architectures and filter them using the property predictors. We validate the effectiveness of DiffusionNAG through extensive experiments in two predictor-based NAS scenarios: Transferable NAS and Bayesian Optimization (BO)-based NAS. DiffusionNAG achieves superior performance with speedups of up to 35 times when compared to the baselines on Transferable NAS benchmarks. Furthermore, when integrated into a BO-based algorithm, DiffusionNAG outperforms existing BO-based NAS approaches, particularly in the large MobileNetV3 search space on the ImageNet 1K dataset. Code is available at https://github.com/CownowAn/DiffusionNAG.

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

Language model pretraining involves training on extensive corpora, where data quality plays a pivotal role. In this work, we aim to directly estimate the contribution of data during pretraining and select pretraining data in an efficient manner. Specifically, we draw inspiration from recent findings showing that compression efficiency (i.e., the normalized loss) of diverse models on certain text correlates strongly with their downstream performance, when the text domain aligns with the downstream benchmark (Huang et al., 2024). Building on this observation, we hypothesize that data on which model losses are predictive of downstream abilities also contribute effectively to learning. To leverage this insight, we introduce data selection based on data's Predictive strength (Preselect), a lightweight and efficient data selection method that requires training and deploying only a fastText-based scorer. Through comprehensive experiments with 1B and 3B parameter models, we demonstrate that models trained on 30B tokens selected with PreSelect surpasses the performance of a vanilla baseline trained on 300B tokens, achieving a 10x reduction in compute requirements. Furthermore, PreSelect significantly outperforms other competitive data selection baselines, such as DCLM and FineWeb-Edu on a scale of 3B models trained on 100B tokens. We open-source our trained data selection scorer along with the curated datasets at https://github.com/hkust-nlp/PreSelect.

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

Reward models (RMs) are at the crux of successful RLHF to align pretrained models to human preferences, yet there has been relatively little study that focuses on evaluation of those reward models. Evaluating reward models presents an opportunity to understand the opaque technologies used for alignment of language models and which values are embedded in them. To date, very few descriptors of capabilities, training methods, or open-source reward models exist. In this paper, we present RewardBench, a benchmark dataset and code-base for evaluation, to enhance scientific understanding of reward models. The RewardBench dataset is a collection of prompt-win-lose trios spanning chat, reasoning, and safety, to benchmark how reward models perform on challenging, structured and out-of-distribution queries. We created specific comparison datasets for RMs that have subtle, but verifiable reasons (e.g. bugs, incorrect facts) why one answer should be preferred to another. On the RewardBench leaderboard, we evaluate reward models trained with a variety of methods, such as the direct MLE training of classifiers and the implicit reward modeling of Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), and on a spectrum of datasets. We present many findings on propensity for refusals, reasoning limitations, and instruction following shortcomings of various reward models towards a better understanding of the RLHF process.

This paper presents our approach to accelerate computer architecture simulation by leveraging machine learning techniques. Traditional computer architecture simulations are time-consuming, making it challenging to explore different design choices efficiently. Our proposed model utilizes a combination of application features and micro-architectural features to predict the performance of an application. These features are derived from simulations of a small portion of the application. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by building and evaluating a machine learning model that offers significant speedup in architectural exploration. This model demonstrates the ability to predict IPC values for the testing data with a root mean square error of less than 0.1.

Over the broad landscape of experimental design, regression has been a powerful tool to accurately predict the outcome metrics of a system or model given a set of parameters, but has been traditionally restricted to methods which are only applicable to a specific task. In this paper, we propose OmniPred, a framework for training language models as universal end-to-end regressors over (x,y) evaluation data from diverse real world experiments. Using data sourced from Google Vizier, one of the largest blackbox optimization databases in the world, our extensive experiments demonstrate that through only textual representations of mathematical parameters and values, language models are capable of very precise numerical regression, and if given the opportunity to train over multiple tasks, can significantly outperform traditional regression models.

Temporal motion modeling has always been a key component in multiple object tracking (MOT) which can ensure smooth trajectory movement and provide accurate positional information to enhance association precision. However, current motion models struggle to be both efficient and effective across different application scenarios. To this end, we propose TrackSSM inspired by the recently popular state space models (SSM), a unified encoder-decoder motion framework that uses data-dependent state space model to perform temporal motion of trajectories. Specifically, we propose Flow-SSM, a module that utilizes the position and motion information from historical trajectories to guide the temporal state transition of object bounding boxes. Based on Flow-SSM, we design a flow decoder. It is composed of a cascaded motion decoding module employing Flow-SSM, which can use the encoded flow information to complete the temporal position prediction of trajectories. Additionally, we propose a Step-by-Step Linear (S^2L) training strategy. By performing linear interpolation between the positions of the object in the previous frame and the current frame, we construct the pseudo labels of step-by-step linear training, ensuring that the trajectory flow information can better guide the object bounding box in completing temporal transitions. TrackSSM utilizes a simple Mamba-Block to build a motion encoder for historical trajectories, forming a temporal motion model with an encoder-decoder structure in conjunction with the flow decoder. TrackSSM is applicable to various tracking scenarios and achieves excellent tracking performance across multiple benchmarks, further extending the potential of SSM-like temporal motion models in multi-object tracking tasks. Code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/Xavier-Lin/TrackSSM.

Large Language Model (LLM) workloads have distinct prefill and decode phases with different compute and memory requirements which should ideally be accounted for when scheduling input queries across different LLM instances in a cluster. However existing scheduling algorithms treat LLM workloads as monolithic jobs without considering the distinct characteristics of the two phases in each workload. This leads to sub-optimal scheduling and increased response latency. In this work, we propose a heuristic-guided reinforcement learning-based intelligent router for data-driven and workload-aware scheduling. Our router leverages a trainable response-length predictor, and a novel formulation for estimating the impact of mixing different workloads to schedule queries across LLM instances and achieve over 11\% lower end-to-end latency than existing approaches.

Deep learning models have achieved impressive prediction performance but often sacrifice interpretability, a critical consideration in high-stakes domains such as healthcare or policymaking. In contrast, generalized additive models (GAMs) can maintain interpretability but often suffer from poor prediction performance due to their inability to effectively capture feature interactions. In this work, we aim to bridge this gap by using pre-trained neural language models to extract embeddings for each input before learning a linear model in the embedding space. The final model (which we call Emb-GAM) is a transparent, linear function of its input features and feature interactions. Leveraging the language model allows Emb-GAM to learn far fewer linear coefficients, model larger interactions, and generalize well to novel inputs (e.g. unseen ngrams in text). Across a variety of natural-language-processing datasets, Emb-GAM achieves strong prediction performance without sacrificing interpretability. All code is made available on Github.

Human evaluation is the gold-standard for evaluating text generation models. It is also expensive, and to fit budgetary constraints, a random subset of the test data is often chosen in practice. The randomly selected data may not accurately represent test performance, making this approach economically inefficient for model comparison. Thus, in this work, we develop a suite of selectors to get the most informative datapoints for human evaluation while taking the evaluation costs into account. We show that selectors based on variance in automated metric scores, diversity in model outputs, or Item Response Theory outperform random selection. We further develop an approach to distill these selectors to the scenario where the model outputs are not yet available. In particular, we introduce source-based estimators, which predict item usefulness for human evaluation just based on the source texts. We demonstrate the efficacy of our selectors in two common NLG tasks, machine translation and summarization, and show that up to only ~50% of the test data is needed to produce the same evaluation result as the entire data. Our implementations are published in the subset2evaluate package.

The prevalence of sarcasm in social media, conveyed through text-image combinations, presents significant challenges for sentiment analysis and intention mining. Current multi-modal sarcasm detection methods have been proven to struggle with biases from spurious cues, leading to a superficial understanding of the complex interactions between text and image. To address these issues, we propose InterCLIP-MEP, a robust framework for multi-modal sarcasm detection. InterCLIP-MEP introduces a refined variant of CLIP, Interactive CLIP (InterCLIP), as the backbone, enhancing sample representations by embedding cross-modality information in each encoder. Furthermore, a novel training strategy is designed to adapt InterCLIP for a Memory-Enhanced Predictor (MEP). MEP uses dynamic dual-channel memory to store valuable historical knowledge of test samples and then leverages this memory as a non-parametric classifier to derive the final prediction. By using InterCLIP to encode text-image interactions more effectively and incorporating MEP, InterCLIP-MEP offers a more robust recognition of multi-modal sarcasm. Experiments demonstrate that InterCLIP-MEP achieves state-of-the-art performance on the MMSD2.0 benchmark. Code and data are available at [https://github.com/CoderChen01/InterCLIP-MEP](https://github.com/CoderChen01/InterCLIP-MEP).

Pre-trained language models (PLMs) have been shown effective for zero-shot (0shot) text classification. 0shot models based on natural language inference (NLI) and next sentence prediction (NSP) employ cross-encoder architecture and infer by making a forward pass through the model for each label-text pair separately. This increases the computational cost to make inferences linearly in the number of labels. In this work, we improve the efficiency of such cross-encoder-based 0shot models by restricting the number of likely labels using another fast base classifier-based conformal predictor (CP) calibrated on samples labeled by the 0shot model. Since a CP generates prediction sets with coverage guarantees, it reduces the number of target labels without excluding the most probable label based on the 0shot model. We experiment with three intent and two topic classification datasets. With a suitable CP for each dataset, we reduce the average inference time for NLI- and NSP-based models by 25.6% and 22.2% respectively, without dropping performance below the predefined error rate of 1%.

Neural Architecture Search (NAS) yields state-of-the-art neural networks that outperform their best manually-designed counterparts. However, previous NAS methods search for architectures under one set of training hyper-parameters (i.e., a training recipe), overlooking superior architecture-recipe combinations. To address this, we present Neural Architecture-Recipe Search (NARS) to search both (a) architectures and (b) their corresponding training recipes, simultaneously. NARS utilizes an accuracy predictor that scores architecture and training recipes jointly, guiding both sample selection and ranking. Furthermore, to compensate for the enlarged search space, we leverage "free" architecture statistics (e.g., FLOP count) to pretrain the predictor, significantly improving its sample efficiency and prediction reliability. After training the predictor via constrained iterative optimization, we run fast evolutionary searches in just CPU minutes to generate architecture-recipe pairs for a variety of resource constraints, called FBNetV3. FBNetV3 makes up a family of state-of-the-art compact neural networks that outperform both automatically and manually-designed competitors. For example, FBNetV3 matches both EfficientNet and ResNeSt accuracy on ImageNet with up to 2.0x and 7.1x fewer FLOPs, respectively. Furthermore, FBNetV3 yields significant performance gains for downstream object detection tasks, improving mAP despite 18% fewer FLOPs and 34% fewer parameters than EfficientNet-based equivalents.

In this study, we approached the Hit Song Prediction problem, which aims to predict which songs will become Billboard hits. We gathered a dataset of nearly 18500 hit and non-hit songs and extracted their audio features using the Spotify Web API. We test four machine-learning models on our dataset. We were able to predict the Billboard success of a song with approximately 86\% accuracy. The most succesful algorithms were Random Forest and Support Vector Machine.

We present CRUXEval (Code Reasoning, Understanding, and eXecution Evaluation), a benchmark consisting of 800 Python functions (3-13 lines). Each function comes with an input-output pair, leading to two natural tasks: input prediction and output prediction. First, we propose a generic recipe for generating our execution benchmark which can be used to create future variation of the benchmark. Second, we evaluate twenty code models on our benchmark and discover that many recent high-scoring models on HumanEval do not show the same improvements on our benchmark. Third, we show that simple CoT and fine-tuning schemes can improve performance on our benchmark but remain far from solving it. The best setup, GPT-4 with chain of thought (CoT), achieves a pass@1 of 75% and 81% on input and output prediction, respectively. In contrast, Code Llama 34B achieves a pass@1 of 50% and 46% on input and output prediction, highlighting the gap between open and closed source models. As no model is close to acing CRUXEval, we provide examples of consistent GPT-4 failures on simple programs as a lens into its code reasoning capabilities and areas for improvement.

Recent research has shown that smaller language models can acquire substantial reasoning abilities when fine-tuned with reasoning exemplars crafted by a significantly larger teacher model. We explore this paradigm for the financial domain, focusing on the challenge of answering questions that require multi-hop numerical reasoning over financial texts. We assess the performance of several smaller models that have been fine-tuned to generate programs that encode the required financial reasoning and calculations. Our findings demonstrate that these fine-tuned smaller models approach the performance of the teacher model. To provide a granular analysis of model performance, we propose an approach to investigate the specific student model capabilities that are enhanced by fine-tuning. Our empirical analysis indicates that fine-tuning refines the student models ability to express and apply the required financial concepts along with adapting the entity extraction for the specific data format. In addition, we hypothesize and demonstrate that comparable financial reasoning capability can be induced using relatively smaller datasets.

We consider non-clairvoyant scheduling with online precedence constraints, where an algorithm is oblivious to any job dependencies and learns about a job only if all of its predecessors have been completed. Given strong impossibility results in classical competitive analysis, we investigate the problem in a learning-augmented setting, where an algorithm has access to predictions without any quality guarantee. We discuss different prediction models: novel problem-specific models as well as general ones, which have been proposed in previous works. We present lower bounds and algorithmic upper bounds for different precedence topologies, and thereby give a structured overview on which and how additional (possibly erroneous) information helps for designing better algorithms. Along the way, we also improve bounds on traditional competitive ratios for existing algorithms.

ColorVideoVDP is a video and image quality metric that models spatial and temporal aspects of vision, for both luminance and color. The metric is built on novel psychophysical models of chromatic spatiotemporal contrast sensitivity and cross-channel contrast masking. It accounts for the viewing conditions, geometric, and photometric characteristics of the display. It was trained to predict common video streaming distortions (e.g. video compression, rescaling, and transmission errors), and also 8 new distortion types related to AR/VR displays (e.g. light source and waveguide non-uniformities). To address the latter application, we collected our novel XR-Display-Artifact-Video quality dataset (XR-DAVID), comprised of 336 distorted videos. Extensive testing on XR-DAVID, as well as several datasets from the literature, indicate a significant gain in prediction performance compared to existing metrics. ColorVideoVDP opens the doors to many novel applications which require the joint automated spatiotemporal assessment of luminance and color distortions, including video streaming, display specification and design, visual comparison of results, and perceptually-guided quality optimization.

We present persona-based models for handling the issue of speaker consistency in neural response generation. A speaker model encodes personas in distributed embeddings that capture individual characteristics such as background information and speaking style. A dyadic speaker-addressee model captures properties of interactions between two interlocutors. Our models yield qualitative performance improvements in both perplexity and BLEU scores over baseline sequence-to-sequence models, with similar gains in speaker consistency as measured by human judges.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable problem-solving and basic mathematics abilities. However, their efficacy is highly contingent on the formulation of the prompt. This study endeavors to quantify the influence of incorporating "positive thinking" into the system message of the prompt, then compare that to systematic prompt optimization. We assess the performance of 60 combinations of system message snippets, tested with and without Chain of Thought prompting, across three models with parameters ranging from 7 to 70 billion on the GSM8K dataset. Our findings reveal that results do not universally generalize across models. In most instances, the inclusion of "positive thinking" prompts positively affected model performance. Notably, however, Llama2-70B exhibited an exception when not utilizing Chain of Thought, as the optimal system message was found to be none at all. Given the combinatorial complexity, and thus computation time, of experimenting with hand-tuning prompts for large black-box models, we then compared the performance of the best "positive thinking" prompt against the output of systematic prompt optimization. We show that employing an automated prompt optimizer emerges as the most effective method for enhancing performance, even when working with smaller open-source models. Additionally, our findings reveal that the highest-scoring, automatically-optimized prompt exhibits a degree of peculiarity far beyond expectations.

Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions that may cause performance drops. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples for which model confidence exceeds that threshold. ATC outperforms previous methods across several model architectures, types of distribution shifts (e.g., due to synthetic corruptions, dataset reproduction, or novel subpopulations), and datasets (Wilds, ImageNet, Breeds, CIFAR, and MNIST). In our experiments, ATC estimates target performance 2-4times more accurately than prior methods. We also explore the theoretical foundations of the problem, proving that, in general, identifying the accuracy is just as hard as identifying the optimal predictor and thus, the efficacy of any method rests upon (perhaps unstated) assumptions on the nature of the shift. Finally, analyzing our method on some toy distributions, we provide insights concerning when it works. Code is available at https://github.com/saurabhgarg1996/ATC_code/.

Several studies have compared the in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance of models in computer vision and NLP. They report a frequent positive correlation and some surprisingly never even observe an inverse correlation indicative of a necessary trade-off. The possibility of inverse patterns is important to determine whether ID performance can serve as a proxy for OOD generalization capabilities. This paper shows with multiple datasets that inverse correlations between ID and OOD performance do happen in real-world data - not only in theoretical worst-case settings. We also explain theoretically how these cases can arise even in a minimal linear setting, and why past studies could miss such cases due to a biased selection of models. Our observations lead to recommendations that contradict those found in much of the current literature. - High OOD performance sometimes requires trading off ID performance. - Focusing on ID performance alone may not lead to optimal OOD performance. It may produce diminishing (eventually negative) returns in OOD performance. - In these cases, studies on OOD generalization that use ID performance for model selection (a common recommended practice) will necessarily miss the best-performing models, making these studies blind to a whole range of phenomena.

We introduce TabRepo, a new dataset of tabular model evaluations and predictions. TabRepo contains the predictions and metrics of 1310 models evaluated on 200 classification and regression datasets. We illustrate the benefit of our dataset in multiple ways. First, we show that it allows to perform analysis such as comparing Hyperparameter Optimization against current AutoML systems while also considering ensembling at marginal cost by using precomputed model predictions. Second, we show that our dataset can be readily leveraged to perform transfer-learning. In particular, we show that applying standard transfer-learning techniques allows to outperform current state-of-the-art tabular systems in accuracy, runtime and latency.

Estimating the overall user experience (UX) on a device is a common challenge faced by manufacturers. Today, device makers primarily rely on microbenchmark scores, such as Geekbench, that stress test specific hardware components, such as CPU or RAM, but do not satisfactorily capture consumer workloads. System designers often rely on domain-specific heuristics and extensive testing of prototypes to reach a desired UX goal, and yet there is often a mismatch between the manufacturers' performance claims and the consumers' experience. We present our initial results on predicting real-life experience on laptops from their hardware specifications. We target web applications that run on Chromebooks (ChromeOS laptops) for a simple and fair aggregation of experience across applications and workloads. On 54 laptops, we track 9 UX metrics on common end-user workloads: web browsing, video playback and audio/video calls. We focus on a subset of high-level metrics exposed by the Chrome browser, that are part of the Web Vitals initiative for judging the UX on web applications. With a dataset of 100K UX data points, we train gradient boosted regression trees that predict the metric values from device specifications. Across our 9 metrics, we note a mean R^2 score (goodness-of-fit on our dataset) of 97.8% and a mean MAAPE (percentage error in prediction on unseen data) of 10.1%.

Patient recruitment is challenging for clinical trials. We introduce TrialGPT, an end-to-end framework for zero-shot patient-to-trial matching with large language models. TrialGPT comprises three modules: it first performs large-scale filtering to retrieve candidate trials (TrialGPT-Retrieval); then predicts criterion-level patient eligibility (TrialGPT-Matching); and finally generates trial-level scores (TrialGPT-Ranking). We evaluate TrialGPT on three cohorts of 183 synthetic patients with over 75,000 trial annotations. TrialGPT-Retrieval can recall over 90% of relevant trials using less than 6% of the initial collection. Manual evaluations on 1,015 patient-criterion pairs show that TrialGPT-Matching achieves an accuracy of 87.3% with faithful explanations, close to the expert performance. The TrialGPT-Ranking scores are highly correlated with human judgments and outperform the best-competing models by 43.8% in ranking and excluding trials. Furthermore, our user study reveals that TrialGPT can reduce the screening time by 42.6% in patient recruitment. Overall, these results have demonstrated promising opportunities for patient-to-trial matching with TrialGPT.

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

This study investigates the consistency of feedback ratings generated by OpenAI's GPT-4, a state-of-the-art artificial intelligence language model, across multiple iterations, time spans and stylistic variations. The model rated responses to tasks within the Higher Education (HE) subject domain of macroeconomics in terms of their content and style. Statistical analysis was conducted in order to learn more about the interrater reliability, consistency of the ratings across iterations and the correlation between ratings in terms of content and style. The results revealed a high interrater reliability with ICC scores ranging between 0.94 and 0.99 for different timespans, suggesting that GPT-4 is capable of generating consistent ratings across repetitions with a clear prompt. Style and content ratings show a high correlation of 0.87. When applying a non-adequate style the average content ratings remained constant, while style ratings decreased, which indicates that the large language model (LLM) effectively distinguishes between these two criteria during evaluation. The prompt used in this study is furthermore presented and explained. Further research is necessary to assess the robustness and reliability of AI models in various use cases.

The ever-growing ecosystem of LLMs has posed a challenge in selecting the most appropriate pre-trained model to fine-tune amidst a sea of options. Given constrained resources, fine-tuning all models and making selections afterward is unrealistic. In this work, we formulate this resource-constrained selection task into predicting fine-tuning performance and illustrate its natural connection with scaling laws. Unlike pre-training, We find that the fine-tuning scaling curve includes not just the well-known "power phase" but also the previously unobserved "pre-power phase". We also explain why existing scaling laws fail to capture this phase transition phenomenon both theoretically and empirically. To address this, we introduce the concept of "pre-learned data size" into our rectified scaling law, which overcomes theoretical limitations and fits experimental results much better. By leveraging our law, we propose a novel LLM selection algorithm that selects the near-optimal model with hundreds of times less resource consumption, while other methods may provide negatively correlated selection.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives reliable probabilities since the ground-truth probabilities are not available. The win probability estimation model for esports, which calculates the win probability under a certain game state, is also one of the fields being actively studied in probability estimation. However, most of the previous works evaluated their models using accuracy, a metric that only can measure the performance of discrimination. In this work, we firstly investigate the Brier score and the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) as a replacement of accuracy used as a performance evaluation metric for win probability estimation models in esports field. Based on the analysis, we propose a novel metric called Balance score which is a simple yet effective metric in terms of six good properties that probability estimation metric should have. Under the general condition, we also found that the Balance score can be an effective approximation of the true expected calibration error which has been imperfectly approximated by ECE using the binning technique. Extensive evaluations using simulation studies and real game snapshot data demonstrate the promising potential to adopt the proposed metric not only for the win probability estimation model for esports but also for evaluating general probability estimation models.

This large scale study focuses on quantifying what X-rays diagnostic prediction tasks generalize well across multiple different datasets. We present evidence that the issue of generalization is not due to a shift in the images but instead a shift in the labels. We study the cross-domain performance, agreement between models, and model representations. We find interesting discrepancies between performance and agreement where models which both achieve good performance disagree in their predictions as well as models which agree yet achieve poor performance. We also test for concept similarity by regularizing a network to group tasks across multiple datasets together and observe variation across the tasks. All code is made available online and data is publicly available: https://github.com/mlmed/torchxrayvision

Skill Classification (SC) is the task of classifying job competences from job postings. This work is the first in SC applied to Danish job vacancy data. We release the first Danish job posting dataset: Kompetencer (en: competences), annotated for nested spans of competences. To improve upon coarse-grained annotations, we make use of The European Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations (ESCO; le Vrang et al., 2014) taxonomy API to obtain fine-grained labels via distant supervision. We study two setups: The zero-shot and few-shot classification setting. We fine-tune English-based models and RemBERT (Chung et al., 2020) and compare them to in-language Danish models. Our results show RemBERT significantly outperforms all other models in both the zero-shot and the few-shot setting.

Reward modeling is crucial for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences, especially in reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). However, current reward models mainly produce scalar scores and struggle to incorporate critiques in a natural language format. We hypothesize that predicting both critiques and the scalar reward would improve reward modeling ability. Motivated by this, we propose Critic-RM, a framework that improves reward models using self-generated critiques without extra supervision. Critic-RM employs a two-stage process: generating and filtering high-quality critiques, followed by joint fine-tuning on reward prediction and critique generation. Experiments across benchmarks show that Critic-RM improves reward modeling accuracy by 3.7%-7.3% compared to standard reward models and LLM judges, demonstrating strong performance and data efficiency. Additional studies further validate the effectiveness of generated critiques in rectifying flawed reasoning steps with 2.5%-3.2% gains in improving reasoning accuracy.

In domains with high stakes such as law, recruitment, and healthcare, learning models frequently rely on sensitive user data for inference, necessitating the complete set of features. This not only poses significant privacy risks for individuals but also demands substantial human effort from organizations to verify information accuracy. This paper asks whether it is necessary to use all input features for accurate predictions at inference time. The paper demonstrates that, in a personalized setting, individuals may only need to disclose a small subset of their features without compromising decision-making accuracy. The paper also provides an efficient sequential algorithm to determine the appropriate attributes for each individual to provide. Evaluations across various learning tasks show that individuals can potentially report as little as 10\% of their information while maintaining the same accuracy level as a model that employs the full set of user information.

Thanks to the large pre-trained vision-language models (VLMs) like CLIP, we can craft a zero-shot classifier by "prompt", e.g., the confidence score of an image being "[CLASS]" can be obtained by using the VLM provided similarity measure between the image and the prompt sentence "a photo of a [CLASS]". Therefore, prompt shows a great potential for fast adaptation of VLMs to downstream tasks if we fine-tune the prompt-based similarity measure. However, we find a common failure that improper fine-tuning may not only undermine the prompt's inherent prediction for the task-related classes, but also for other classes in the VLM vocabulary. Existing methods still address this problem by using traditional anti-overfitting techniques such as early stopping and data augmentation, which lack a principled solution specific to prompt. We present Prompt-aligned Gradient, dubbed ProGrad, to prevent prompt tuning from forgetting the the general knowledge learned from VLMs. In particular, ProGrad only updates the prompt whose gradient is aligned (or non-conflicting) to the "general direction", which is represented as the gradient of the KL loss of the pre-defined prompt prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate the stronger few-shot generalization ability of ProGrad over state-of-the-art prompt tuning methods. Codes are available at https://github.com/BeierZhu/Prompt-align.

Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound). However, model scores are often not aligned with the true positivity rate. This is especially true when the training involves a differential sampling across classes or there is distributional drift between train and test settings. In this paper, we provide theoretical analysis and empirical evidence of the dependence of model score estimation bias on both uncertainty and score itself. Further, we formulate the decision boundary selection in terms of both model score and uncertainty, prove that it is NP-hard, and present algorithms based on dynamic programming and isotonic regression. Evaluation of the proposed algorithms on three real-world datasets yield 25%-40% gain in recall at high precision bounds over the traditional approach of using model score alone, highlighting the benefits of leveraging uncertainty.

As large language models (LLMs) become increasingly versatile, numerous large scale benchmarks have been developed to thoroughly assess their capabilities. These benchmarks typically consist of diverse datasets and prompts to evaluate different aspects of LLM performance. However, comprehensive evaluations on hundreds or thousands of prompts incur tremendous costs in terms of computation, money, and time. In this work, we investigate strategies to improve evaluation efficiency by selecting a subset of examples from each benchmark using a learned policy. Our approach models the dependencies across test examples, allowing accurate prediction of the evaluation outcomes for the remaining examples based on the outcomes of the selected ones. Consequently, we only need to acquire the actual evaluation outcomes for the selected subset. We rigorously explore various subset selection policies and introduce a novel RL-based policy that leverages the captured dependencies. Empirical results demonstrate that our approach significantly reduces the number of evaluation prompts required while maintaining accurate performance estimates compared to previous methods.

We study the effects of data size and quality on the performance on Automated Essay Scoring (AES) engines that are designed in accordance with three different paradigms; A frequency and hand-crafted feature-based model, a recurrent neural network model, and a pretrained transformer-based language model that is fine-tuned for classification. We expect that each type of model benefits from the size and the quality of the training data in very different ways. Standard practices for developing training data for AES engines were established with feature-based methods in mind, however, since neural networks are increasingly being considered in a production setting, this work seeks to inform us as to how to establish better training data for neural networks that will be used in production.

Instruction tuning has been widely adopted to ensure large language models (LLMs) follow user instructions effectively. The resulting instruction-following capabilities of LLMs heavily rely on the instruction datasets used for tuning. Recently, synthetic instruction datasets have emerged as an economically viable solution to provide LLMs diverse and high-quality instructions. However, existing approaches typically assume that larger or stronger models are stronger teachers for instruction tuning, and hence simply adopt these models as response generators to the synthetic instructions. In this paper, we challenge this commonly-adopted assumption. Our extensive experiments across five base models and twenty response generators reveal that larger and stronger models are not necessarily stronger teachers of smaller models. We refer to this phenomenon as the Larger Models' Paradox. We observe that existing metrics cannot precisely predict the effectiveness of response generators since they ignore the compatibility between teachers and base models being fine-tuned. We thus develop a novel metric, named as Compatibility-Adjusted Reward (CAR) to measure the effectiveness of response generators. Our experiments across five base models demonstrate that CAR outperforms almost all baselines.

Large Language Models (LLMs) vary in their abilities on a range of tasks. Initiatives such as the Open LLM Leaderboard aim to quantify these differences with several large benchmarks (sets of test items to which an LLM can respond either correctly or incorrectly). However, high correlations within and between benchmark scores suggest that (1) there exists a small set of common underlying abilities that these benchmarks measure, and (2) items tap into redundant information and the benchmarks may thus be considerably compressed. We use data from n > 5000 LLMs to identify the most informative items of six benchmarks, ARC, GSM8K, HellaSwag, MMLU, TruthfulQA and WinoGrande (with d=28,632 items in total). From them we distill a sparse benchmark, metabench, that has less than 3% of the original size of all six benchmarks combined. This new sparse benchmark goes beyond point scores by yielding estimators of the underlying benchmark-specific abilities. We show that these estimators (1) can be used to reconstruct each original individual benchmark score with, on average, 1.5% root mean square error (RMSE), (2) reconstruct the original total score with 0.8% RMSE, and (3) have a single underlying common factor whose Spearman correlation with the total score is r = 0.93.

In the absence of extensive human-annotated data for complex reasoning tasks, self-improvement -- where models are trained on their own outputs -- has emerged as a primary method for enhancing performance. However, the critical factors underlying the mechanism of these iterative self-improving methods remain poorly understood, such as under what conditions self-improvement is effective, and what are the bottlenecks in the current iterations. In this work, we identify and propose methods to monitor two pivotal factors in this iterative process: (1) the model's ability to generate sufficiently diverse responses (exploration); and (2) the effectiveness of external rewards in distinguishing high-quality candidates from lower-quality ones (exploitation). Using mathematical reasoning as a case study, we begin with a quantitative analysis to track the dynamics of exploration and exploitation, discovering that a model's exploratory capabilities rapidly deteriorate over iterations, and the effectiveness of exploiting external rewards diminishes as well. Motivated by these findings, we introduce B-STaR, a Self-Taught Reasoning framework that autonomously adjusts configurations across iterations to Balance exploration and exploitation, thereby optimizing the self-improving effectiveness based on the current policy model and available rewards. Our experiments on mathematical reasoning, coding, and commonsense reasoning demonstrate that B-STaR not only enhances the model's exploratory capabilities throughout training but also achieves a more effective balance between exploration and exploitation, leading to superior performance.

Large language models (LLMs) enable system builders today to create competent NLP systems through prompting, where they only need to describe the task in natural language and provide a few examples. However, in other ways, LLMs are a step backward from traditional special-purpose NLP models; they require extensive computational resources for deployment and can be gated behind APIs. In this paper, we propose Prompt2Model, a general-purpose method that takes a natural language task description like the prompts provided to LLMs, and uses it to train a special-purpose model that is conducive to deployment. This is done through a multi-step process of retrieval of existing datasets and pretrained models, dataset generation using LLMs, and supervised fine-tuning on these retrieved and generated datasets. Over three tasks, we demonstrate that given the same few-shot prompt as input, Prompt2Model trains models that outperform the results of a strong LLM, gpt-3.5-turbo, by an average of 20% while being up to 700 times smaller. We also show that this data can be used to obtain reliable performance estimates of model performance, enabling model developers to assess model reliability before deployment. Prompt2Model is available open-source at https://github.com/neulab/prompt2model.

Instruction tuning is critical for adapting large language models (LLMs) to downstream tasks, and recent studies have demonstrated that small amounts of human-curated data can outperform larger datasets, challenging traditional data scaling laws. While LLM-based data quality rating systems offer a cost-effective alternative to human annotation, they often suffer from inaccuracies and biases, even in powerful models like GPT-4. In this work, we introduce DS2, a Diversity-aware Score curation method for Data Selection. By systematically modeling error patterns through a score transition matrix, DS2 corrects LLM-based scores and promotes diversity in the selected data samples. Our approach shows that a curated subset (just 3.3% of the original dataset) outperforms full-scale datasets (300k samples) across various machine-alignment benchmarks, and matches or surpasses human-aligned datasets such as LIMA with the same sample size (1k samples). These findings challenge conventional data scaling assumptions, highlighting that redundant, low-quality samples can degrade performance and reaffirming that "more can be less."

Large language models achieve high performance on many but not all downstream tasks. The interaction between pretraining data and task data is commonly assumed to determine this variance: a task with data that is more similar to a model's pretraining data is assumed to be easier for that model. We test whether distributional and example-specific similarity measures (embedding-, token- and model-based) correlate with language model performance through a large-scale comparison of the Pile and C4 pretraining datasets with downstream benchmarks. Similarity correlates with performance for multilingual datasets, but in other benchmarks, we surprisingly find that similarity metrics are not correlated with accuracy or even each other. This suggests that the relationship between pretraining data and downstream tasks is more complex than often assumed.

We tasked 16 state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) with estimating the likelihood of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) emerging by 2030. To assess the quality of these forecasts, we implemented an automated peer review process (LLM-PR). The LLMs' estimates varied widely, ranging from 3% (Reka- Core) to 47.6% (GPT-4o), with a median of 12.5%. These estimates closely align with a recent expert survey that projected a 10% likelihood of AGI by 2027, underscoring the relevance of LLMs in forecasting complex, speculative scenarios. The LLM-PR process demonstrated strong reliability, evidenced by a high Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC = 0.79), reflecting notable consistency in scoring across the models. Among the models, Pplx-70b-online emerged as the top performer, while Gemini-1.5-pro-api ranked the lowest. A cross-comparison with external benchmarks, such as LMSYS Chatbot Arena, revealed that LLM rankings remained consistent across different evaluation methods, suggesting that existing benchmarks may not encapsulate some of the skills relevant for AGI prediction. We further explored the use of weighting schemes based on external benchmarks, optimizing the alignment of LLMs' predictions with human expert forecasts. This analysis led to the development of a new, 'AGI benchmark' designed to highlight performance differences in AGI-related tasks. Our findings offer insights into LLMs' capabilities in speculative, interdisciplinary forecasting tasks and emphasize the growing need for innovative evaluation frameworks for assessing AI performance in complex, uncertain real-world scenarios.

Review websites, such as TripAdvisor and Yelp, allow users to post online reviews for various businesses, products and services, and have been recently shown to have a significant influence on consumer shopping behaviour. An online review typically consists of free-form text and a star rating out of 5. The problem of predicting a user's star rating for a product, given the user's text review for that product, is called Review Rating Prediction and has lately become a popular, albeit hard, problem in machine learning. In this paper, we treat Review Rating Prediction as a multi-class classification problem, and build sixteen different prediction models by combining four feature extraction methods, (i) unigrams, (ii) bigrams, (iii) trigrams and (iv) Latent Semantic Indexing, with four machine learning algorithms, (i) logistic regression, (ii) Naive Bayes classification, (iii) perceptrons, and (iv) linear Support Vector Classification. We analyse the performance of each of these sixteen models to come up with the best model for predicting the ratings from reviews. We use the dataset provided by Yelp for training and testing the models.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

In this paper, we have studied the performance and role of local optimizers in quantum variational circuits. We studied the performance of the two most popular optimizers and compared their results with some popular classical machine learning algorithms. The classical algorithms we used in our study are support vector machine (SVM), gradient boosting (GB), and random forest (RF). These were compared with a variational quantum classifier (VQC) using two sets of local optimizers viz AQGD and COBYLA. For experimenting with VQC, IBM Quantum Experience and IBM Qiskit was used while for classical machine learning models, sci-kit learn was used. The results show that machine learning on noisy immediate scale quantum machines can produce comparable results as on classical machines. For our experiments, we have used a popular restaurant sentiment analysis dataset. The extracted features from this dataset and then after applying PCA reduced the feature set into 5 features. Quantum ML models were trained using 100 epochs and 150 epochs on using EfficientSU2 variational circuit. Overall, four Quantum ML models were trained and three Classical ML models were trained. The performance of the trained models was evaluated using standard evaluation measures viz, Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F-Score. In all the cases AQGD optimizer-based model with 100 Epochs performed better than all other models. It produced an accuracy of 77% and an F-Score of 0.785 which were highest across all the trained models.

Guided by the belief of the scaling law, large language models (LLMs) have achieved impressive performance in recent years. However, scaling law only gives a qualitative estimation of loss, which is influenced by various factors such as model architectures, data distributions, tokenizers, and computation precision. Thus, estimating the real performance of LLMs with different training settings rather than loss may be quite useful in practical development. In this article, we present an empirical equation named "Performance Law" to directly predict the MMLU score of an LLM, which is a widely used metric to indicate the general capability of LLMs in real-world conversations and applications. Based on only a few key hyperparameters of the LLM architecture and the size of training data, we obtain a quite accurate MMLU prediction of various LLMs with diverse sizes and architectures developed by different organizations in different years. Performance law can be used to guide the choice of LLM architecture and the effective allocation of computational resources without extensive experiments.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being utilized by both candidates and employers in the recruitment context. However, with this comes numerous ethical concerns, particularly related to the lack of transparency in these "black-box" models. Although previous studies have sought to increase the transparency of these models by investigating the personality traits of LLMs, many of the previous studies have provided them with personality assessments to complete. On the other hand, this study seeks to obtain a better understanding of such models by examining their output variations based on different input prompts. Specifically, we use a novel elicitation approach using prompts derived from common interview questions, as well as prompts designed to elicit particular Big Five personality traits to examine whether the models were susceptible to trait-activation like humans are, to measure their personality based on the language used in their outputs. To do so, we repeatedly prompted multiple LMs with different parameter sizes, including Llama-2, Falcon, Mistral, Bloom, GPT, OPT, and XLNet (base and fine tuned versions) and examined their personality using classifiers trained on the myPersonality dataset. Our results reveal that, generally, all LLMs demonstrate high openness and low extraversion. However, whereas LMs with fewer parameters exhibit similar behaviour in personality traits, newer and LMs with more parameters exhibit a broader range of personality traits, with increased agreeableness, emotional stability, and openness. Furthermore, a greater number of parameters is positively associated with openness and conscientiousness. Moreover, fine-tuned models exhibit minor modulations in their personality traits, contingent on the dataset. Implications and directions for future research are discussed.

Recommendation fairness has attracted great attention recently. In real-world systems, users usually have multiple sensitive attributes (e.g. age, gender, and occupation), and users may not want their recommendation results influenced by those attributes. Moreover, which of and when these user attributes should be considered in fairness-aware modeling should depend on users' specific demands. In this work, we define the selective fairness task, where users can flexibly choose which sensitive attributes should the recommendation model be bias-free. We propose a novel parameter-efficient prompt-based fairness-aware recommendation (PFRec) framework, which relies on attribute-specific prompt-based bias eliminators with adversarial training, enabling selective fairness with different attribute combinations on sequential recommendation. Both task-specific and user-specific prompts are considered. We conduct extensive evaluations to verify PFRec's superiority in selective fairness. The source codes are released in https://github.com/wyqing20/PFRec.

While generalization over tasks from easy to hard is crucial to profile language models (LLMs), the datasets with fine-grained difficulty annotations for each problem across a broad range of complexity are still blank. Aiming to address this limitation, we present Easy2Hard-Bench, a consistently formatted collection of 6 benchmark datasets spanning various domains, such as mathematics and programming problems, chess puzzles, and reasoning questions. Each problem within these datasets is annotated with numerical difficulty scores. To systematically estimate problem difficulties, we collect abundant performance data on attempts to each problem by humans in the real world or LLMs on the prominent leaderboard. Leveraging the rich performance data, we apply well-established difficulty ranking systems, such as Item Response Theory (IRT) and Glicko-2 models, to uniformly assign numerical difficulty scores to problems. Moreover, datasets in Easy2Hard-Bench distinguish themselves from previous collections by a higher proportion of challenging problems. Through extensive experiments with six state-of-the-art LLMs, we provide a comprehensive analysis of their performance and generalization capabilities across varying levels of difficulty, with the aim of inspiring future research in LLM generalization. The datasets are available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/furonghuang-lab/Easy2Hard-Bench.

Current question-answering benchmarks predominantly focus on accuracy in realizable prediction tasks. Conditioned on a question and answer-key, does the most likely token match the ground truth? Such benchmarks necessarily fail to evaluate LLMs' ability to quantify ground-truth outcome uncertainty. In this work, we focus on the use of LLMs as risk scores for unrealizable prediction tasks. We introduce folktexts, a software package to systematically generate risk scores using LLMs, and evaluate them against US Census data products. A flexible API enables the use of different prompting schemes, local or web-hosted models, and diverse census columns that can be used to compose custom prediction tasks. We evaluate 17 recent LLMs across five proposed benchmark tasks. We find that zero-shot risk scores produced by multiple-choice question-answering have high predictive signal but are widely miscalibrated. Base models consistently overestimate outcome uncertainty, while instruction-tuned models underestimate uncertainty and produce over-confident risk scores. In fact, instruction-tuning polarizes answer distribution regardless of true underlying data uncertainty. This reveals a general inability of instruction-tuned LLMs to express data uncertainty using multiple-choice answers. A separate experiment using verbalized chat-style risk queries yields substantially improved calibration across instruction-tuned models. These differences in ability to quantify data uncertainty cannot be revealed in realizable settings, and highlight a blind-spot in the current evaluation ecosystem that folktexts covers.

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a critical problem in web search, recommendation systems and online advertisement displaying. Learning good feature interactions is essential to reflect user's preferences to items. Many CTR prediction models based on deep learning have been proposed, but researchers usually only pay attention to whether state-of-the-art performance is achieved, and ignore whether the entire framework is reasonable. In this work, we use the discrete choice model in economics to redefine the CTR prediction problem, and propose a general neural network framework built on self-attention mechanism. It is found that most existing CTR prediction models align with our proposed general framework. We also examine the expressive power and model complexity of our proposed framework, along with potential extensions to some existing models. And finally we demonstrate and verify our insights through some experimental results on public datasets.

Predicting case outcomes is useful but still an extremely hard task for attorneys and other Law professionals. It is not easy to search case information to extract valuable information as this requires dealing with huge data sets and their complexity. For instance, the complexity of Brazil legal system along with the high litigation rates makes this problem even harder. This paper introduces an approach for predicting Brazilian court decisions which is also able to predict whether the decision will be unanimous. We developed a working prototype which performs 79% of accuracy (F1-score) on a data set composed of 4,043 cases from a Brazilian court. To our knowledge, this is the first study to forecast judge decisions in Brazil.

The pervasive deployment of Large Language Models-LLMs in various sectors often neglects the nuanced requirements of individuals and small organizations, who benefit more from models precisely tailored to their specific business contexts rather than those with broadly superior general capabilities. This work introduces AnyTaskTune, a novel fine-tuning methodology coined as Task-Fine-Tune, specifically developed to elevate model performance on a diverse array of domain-specific tasks. This method involves a meticulous process to identify and define targeted sub-tasks within a domain, followed by the creation of specialized enhancement datasets for fine-tuning, thereby optimizing task-specific model performance. We conducted comprehensive fine-tuning experiments not only in the legal domain for tasks such as keyword extraction and sentence prediction but across over twenty different sub-tasks derived from the domains of finance, healthcare, law, psychology, consumer services, and human resources. To substantiate our approach and facilitate community engagement, we will open-source these bilingual task datasets. Our findings demonstrate that models fine-tuned using the Task-Fine-Tune methodology not only achieve superior performance on these specific tasks but also significantly outperform models with higher general capabilities in their respective domains. Our work is publicly available at https://github.com/PandaVT/DataTager.

Recent studies have put into question the belief that emergent abilities in language models are exclusive to large models. This skepticism arises from two observations: 1) smaller models can also exhibit high performance on emergent abilities and 2) there is doubt on the discontinuous metrics used to measure these abilities. In this paper, we propose to study emergent abilities in the lens of pre-training loss, instead of model size or training compute. We demonstrate that the models with the same pre-training loss, but different model and data sizes, generate the same performance on various downstream tasks. We also discover that a model exhibits emergent abilities on certain tasks -- regardless of the continuity of metrics -- when its pre-training loss falls below a specific threshold. Before reaching this threshold, its performance remains at the level of random guessing. This inspires us to redefine emergent abilities as those that manifest in models with lower pre-training losses, highlighting that these abilities cannot be predicted by merely extrapolating the performance trends of models with higher pre-training losses.

Analytical framework for predicting General Matrix Multiplication (GEMM) performance on modern GPUs, focusing on runtime, power consumption, and energy efficiency. Our study employs two approaches: a custom-implemented tiled matrix multiplication kernel for fundamental analysis, and NVIDIA's CUTLASS library for comprehensive performance data collection across advanced configurations. Using the NVIDIA RTX 4070 as our experimental platform, we developed a Random Forest-based prediction model with multi-output regression capability. Through analysis of both naive tiled matrix multiplication with varying tile sizes (1 to 32) and 16,128 CUTLASS GEMM operations across diverse configurations, we identified critical performance patterns related to matrix dimensions, thread block configurations, and memory access patterns. Our framework achieved exceptional accuracy with an R^2 score of 0.98 for runtime prediction (mean error 15.57%) and 0.78 for power prediction (median error 5.42%). The system successfully predicts performance across matrix sizes, demonstrating robust scaling behavior. Our results show that optimal tile size selection can improve performance by up to 3.2x while reducing power consumption by 22% compared to baseline configurations. Analysis of shared memory utilization and SM occupancy reveals that tile sizes of 16x16 achieve the best balance between parallelism and resource usage. The implementation of our framework, including prediction models and analysis tools, is available as an open-source project at GPPerf [https://github.com/pavlyhalim/GPPerf].

Task semantics can be expressed by a set of input-to-output examples or a piece of textual instruction. Conventional machine learning approaches for natural language processing (NLP) mainly rely on the availability of large-scale sets of task-specific examples. Two issues arise: first, collecting task-specific labeled examples does not apply to scenarios where tasks may be too complicated or costly to annotate, or the system is required to handle a new task immediately; second, this is not user-friendly since end-users are probably more willing to provide task description rather than a set of examples before using the system. Therefore, the community is paying increasing interest in a new supervision-seeking paradigm for NLP: learning from task instructions. Despite its impressive progress, there are some common issues that the community struggles with. This survey paper tries to summarize and provide insights into the current research on instruction learning, particularly by answering the following questions: (i) What is task instruction, and what instruction types exist? (ii) How to model instructions? (iii) What factors influence and explain the instructions' performance? (iv) What challenges remain in instruction learning? To our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive survey about textual instructions.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model's conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

Instruction-tuned large language models have revolutionized natural language processing and have shown great potential in applications such as conversational agents. These models, such as GPT-4, can not only master language but also solve complex tasks in areas like mathematics, coding, medicine, and law. Despite their impressive capabilities, there is still a lack of comprehensive understanding regarding their full potential, primarily due to the black-box nature of many models and the absence of holistic evaluation studies. To address these challenges, we present INSTRUCTEVAL, a more comprehensive evaluation suite designed specifically for instruction-tuned large language models. Unlike previous works, our evaluation involves a rigorous assessment of models based on problem-solving, writing ability, and alignment to human values. We take a holistic approach to analyze various factors affecting model performance, including the pretraining foundation, instruction-tuning data, and training methods. Our findings reveal that the quality of instruction data is the most crucial factor in scaling model performance. While open-source models demonstrate impressive writing abilities, there is substantial room for improvement in problem-solving and alignment. We are encouraged by the rapid development of models by the open-source community, but we also highlight the need for rigorous evaluation to support claims made about these models. Through INSTRUCTEVAL, we aim to foster a deeper understanding of instruction-tuned models and advancements in their capabilities. INSTRUCTEVAL is publicly available at https://github.com/declare-lab/instruct-eval.

Decision-makers are often experts of their domain and take actions based on their domain knowledge. Doctors, for instance, may prescribe treatments by predicting the likely outcome of each available treatment. Actions of an expert thus naturally encode part of their domain knowledge, and can help make inferences within the same domain: Knowing doctors try to prescribe the best treatment for their patients, we can tell treatments prescribed more frequently are likely to be more effective. Yet in machine learning, the fact that most decision-makers are experts is often overlooked, and "expertise" is seldom leveraged as an inductive bias. This is especially true for the literature on treatment effect estimation, where often the only assumption made about actions is that of overlap. In this paper, we argue that expertise - particularly the type of expertise the decision-makers of a domain are likely to have - can be informative in designing and selecting methods for treatment effect estimation. We formally define two types of expertise, predictive and prognostic, and demonstrate empirically that: (i) the prominent type of expertise in a domain significantly influences the performance of different methods in treatment effect estimation, and (ii) it is possible to predict the type of expertise present in a dataset, which can provide a quantitative basis for model selection.

Despite the remarkable progress in the development of predictive models for healthcare, applying these algorithms on a large scale has been challenging. Algorithms trained on a particular task, based on specific data formats available in a set of medical records, tend to not generalize well to other tasks or databases in which the data fields may differ. To address this challenge, we propose General Healthcare Predictive Framework (GenHPF), which is applicable to any EHR with minimal preprocessing for multiple prediction tasks. GenHPF resolves heterogeneity in medical codes and schemas by converting EHRs into a hierarchical textual representation while incorporating as many features as possible. To evaluate the efficacy of GenHPF, we conduct multi-task learning experiments with single-source and multi-source settings, on three publicly available EHR datasets with different schemas for 12 clinically meaningful prediction tasks. Our framework significantly outperforms baseline models that utilize domain knowledge in multi-source learning, improving average AUROC by 1.2%P in pooled learning and 2.6%P in transfer learning while also showing comparable results when trained on a single EHR dataset. Furthermore, we demonstrate that self-supervised pretraining using multi-source datasets is effective when combined with GenHPF, resulting in a 0.6%P AUROC improvement compared to models without pretraining. By eliminating the need for preprocessing and feature engineering, we believe that this work offers a solid framework for multi-task and multi-source learning that can be leveraged to speed up the scaling and usage of predictive algorithms in healthcare.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have led to significant successes across various applications, where the most noticeable is to a series of emerging capabilities, particularly in the areas of In-Context Learning (ICL) and Chain-of-Thought (CoT). To better understand and control model performance, many studies have begun investigating the underlying causes of these phenomena and their impact on task outcomes. However, existing explanatory frameworks predominantly focus on isolating and explaining ICL and CoT independently, leading to an incomplete understanding of their combined influence on model performance. To address this gap, we propose the Electronic Circuit Model (ECM), which provides a foundation for developing scalable, learnable policies and improving the management of AI-generated content. Specifically, ECM conceptualizes model behavior as an electronic circuit: ICL is represented as semantic magnetic field to providing an additional voltage following Faraday's Law, while CoT is modeled as series resistors to constrain the model output performance following Ohm's Law. Experimental results demonstrate that the ECM effectively predicts and explains LLM performance across a variety of prompting strategies. Furthermore, we apply ECM to advanced reasoning strategy optimization on a series of tasks, such as the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) and the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO), achieving competitive performance that surpasses nearly 80% of top human competitors.

Recommender Systems are built to retrieve relevant items to satisfy users' information needs. The candidate corpus usually consists of a finite set of items that are ready to be served, such as videos, products, or articles. With recent advances in Generative AI such as GPT and Diffusion models, a new form of recommendation task is yet to be explored where items are to be created by generative models with personalized prompts. Taking image generation as an example, with a single prompt from the user and access to a generative model, it is possible to generate hundreds of new images in a few minutes. How shall we attain personalization in the presence of "infinite" items? In this preliminary study, we propose a two-stage framework, namely Prompt-Model Retrieval and Generated Item Ranking, to approach this new task formulation. We release GEMRec-18K, a prompt-model interaction dataset with 18K images generated by 200 publicly-available generative models paired with a diverse set of 90 textual prompts. Our findings demonstrate the promise of generative model recommendation as a novel personalization problem and the limitations of existing evaluation metrics. We highlight future directions for the RecSys community to advance towards generative recommender systems. Our code and dataset are available at https://github.com/MAPS-research/GEMRec.

Transfer learning approaches have shown to significantly improve performance on downstream tasks. However, it is common for prior works to only report where transfer learning was beneficial, ignoring the significant trial-and-error required to find effective settings for transfer. Indeed, not all task combinations lead to performance benefits, and brute-force searching rapidly becomes computationally infeasible. Hence the question arises, can we predict whether transfer between two tasks will be beneficial without actually performing the experiment? In this paper, we leverage explainability techniques to effectively predict whether task pairs will be complementary, through comparison of neural network activation between single-task models. In this way, we can avoid grid-searches over all task and hyperparameter combinations, dramatically reducing the time needed to find effective task pairs. Our results show that, through this approach, it is possible to reduce training time by up to 83.5% at a cost of only 0.034 reduction in positive-class F1 on the TREC-IS 2020-A dataset.

The ability to collect a large dataset of human preferences from text-to-image users is usually limited to companies, making such datasets inaccessible to the public. To address this issue, we create a web app that enables text-to-image users to generate images and specify their preferences. Using this web app we build Pick-a-Pic, a large, open dataset of text-to-image prompts and real users' preferences over generated images. We leverage this dataset to train a CLIP-based scoring function, PickScore, which exhibits superhuman performance on the task of predicting human preferences. Then, we test PickScore's ability to perform model evaluation and observe that it correlates better with human rankings than other automatic evaluation metrics. Therefore, we recommend using PickScore for evaluating future text-to-image generation models, and using Pick-a-Pic prompts as a more relevant dataset than MS-COCO. Finally, we demonstrate how PickScore can enhance existing text-to-image models via ranking.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown exceptional capabilities in Natural Language Processing (NLP) across diverse domains. However, their application in specialized tasks such as Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP) for low-resource languages like Arabic remains underexplored. In this work, we address this gap by developing an Arabic LJP dataset, collected and preprocessed from Saudi commercial court judgments. We benchmark state-of-the-art open-source LLMs, including LLaMA-3.2-3B and LLaMA-3.1-8B, under varying configurations such as zero-shot, one-shot, and fine-tuning using QLoRA. Additionally, we used a comprehensive evaluation framework combining quantitative metrics (BLEU and ROUGE) and qualitative assessments (Coherence, legal language, clarity). Our results demonstrate that fine-tuned smaller models achieve comparable performance to larger models in task-specific contexts while offering significant resource efficiency. Furthermore, we investigate the effects of prompt engineering and fine-tuning on model outputs, providing insights into performance variability and instruction sensitivity. By making the dataset, implementation code, and models publicly available, we establish a robust foundation for future research in Arabic legal NLP.

This study explores the relationship between textual features and Information Engagement (IE) on digital platforms. It highlights the impact of computational linguistics and analytics on user interaction. The READ model is introduced to quantify key predictors like representativeness, ease of use, affect, and distribution, which forecast engagement levels. The model's effectiveness is validated through AB testing and randomized trials, showing strong predictive performance in participation (accuracy: 0.94), perception (accuracy: 0.85), perseverance (accuracy: 0.81), and overall IE (accuracy: 0.97). While participation metrics are strong, perception and perseverance show slightly lower recall and F1-scores, indicating some challenges. The study demonstrates that modifying text based on the READ model's insights leads to significant improvements. For example, increasing representativeness and positive affect boosts selection rates by 11 percent, raises evaluation averages from 3.98 to 4.46, and improves retention rates by 11 percent. These findings highlight the importance of linguistic factors in IE, providing a framework for enhancing digital text engagement. The research offers practical strategies applicable to fields like education, health, and media.

In this paper, we explore the impact of augmenting pre-trained Encoder-Decoder models, specifically T5, with linguistic knowledge for the prediction of a target task. In particular, we investigate whether fine-tuning a T5 model on an intermediate task that predicts structural linguistic properties of sentences modifies its performance in the target task of predicting sentence-level complexity. Our study encompasses diverse experiments conducted on Italian and English datasets, employing both monolingual and multilingual T5 models at various sizes. Results obtained for both languages and in cross-lingual configurations show that linguistically motivated intermediate fine-tuning has generally a positive impact on target task performance, especially when applied to smaller models and in scenarios with limited data availability.

Automated scoring engines are increasingly being used to score the free-form text responses that students give to questions. Such engines are not designed to appropriately deal with responses that a human reader would find alarming such as those that indicate an intention to self-harm or harm others, responses that allude to drug abuse or sexual abuse or any response that would elicit concern for the student writing the response. Our neural network models have been designed to help identify these anomalous responses from a large collection of typical responses that students give. The responses identified by the neural network can be assessed for urgency, severity, and validity more quickly by a team of reviewers than otherwise possible. Given the anomalous nature of these types of responses, our goal is to maximize the chance of flagging these responses for review given the constraint that only a fixed percentage of responses can viably be assessed by a team of reviewers.

In this study, we investigated the effects of self-reflection in large language models (LLMs) on problem-solving performance. We instructed nine popular LLMs to answer a series of multiple-choice questions to provide a performance baseline. For each incorrectly answered question, we instructed eight types of self-reflecting LLM agents to reflect on their mistakes and provide themselves with guidance to improve problem-solving. Then, using this guidance, each self-reflecting agent attempted to re-answer the same questions. Our results indicate that LLM agents are able to significantly improve their problem-solving performance through self-reflection (p < 0.001). In addition, we compared the various types of self-reflection to determine their individual contribution to performance. All code and data are available on GitHub at https://github.com/matthewrenze/self-reflection

We introduce a new benchmark for reward models that quantifies their ability to produce strong language models through RLHF (Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback). The gold-standard approach is to run a full RLHF training pipeline and directly probe downstream LLM performance. However, this process is prohibitively expensive. To address this, we build a predictive model of downstream LLM performance by evaluating the reward model on proxy tasks. These proxy tasks consist of a large-scale human preference and a verifiable correctness preference dataset, in which we measure 12 metrics across 12 domains. To investigate which reward model metrics are most correlated to gold-standard RLHF outcomes, we launch an end-to-end RLHF experiment on a large-scale crowdsourced human preference platform to view real reward model downstream performance as ground truth. Ultimately, we compile our data and findings into Preference Proxy Evaluations (PPE), the first reward model benchmark explicitly linked to post-RLHF real-world human preference performance, which we open-source for public use and further development. Our code and evaluations can be found at https://github.com/lmarena/PPE .

Generalist foundation models such as GPT-4 have displayed surprising capabilities in a wide variety of domains and tasks. Yet, there is a prevalent assumption that they cannot match specialist capabilities of fine-tuned models. For example, most explorations to date on medical competency benchmarks have leveraged domain-specific training, as exemplified by efforts on BioGPT and Med-PaLM. We build on a prior study of GPT-4's capabilities on medical challenge benchmarks in the absence of special training. Rather than using simple prompting to highlight the model's out-of-the-box capabilities, we perform a systematic exploration of prompt engineering. We find that prompting innovation can unlock deeper specialist capabilities and show that GPT-4 easily tops prior leading results for medical benchmarks. The prompting methods we explore are general purpose, and make no specific use of domain expertise, removing the need for expert-curated content. Our experimental design carefully controls for overfitting during the prompt engineering process. We introduce Medprompt, based on a composition of several prompting strategies. With Medprompt, GPT-4 achieves state-of-the-art results on all nine of the benchmark datasets in the MultiMedQA suite. The method outperforms leading specialist models such as Med-PaLM 2 by a significant margin with an order of magnitude fewer calls to the model. Steering GPT-4 with Medprompt achieves a 27% reduction in error rate on the MedQA dataset over the best methods to date achieved with specialist models and surpasses a score of 90% for the first time. Beyond medical problems, we show the power of Medprompt to generalize to other domains and provide evidence for the broad applicability of the approach via studies of the strategy on exams in electrical engineering, machine learning, philosophy, accounting, law, nursing, and clinical psychology.

Major cloud providers have employed advanced AI-based solutions like large language models to aid humans in identifying the root causes of cloud incidents. Despite the growing prevalence of AI-driven assistants in the root cause analysis process, their effectiveness in assisting on-call engineers is constrained by low accuracy due to the intrinsic difficulty of the task, a propensity for LLM-based approaches to hallucinate, and difficulties in distinguishing these well-disguised hallucinations. To address this challenge, we propose to perform confidence estimation for the predictions to help on-call engineers make decisions on whether to adopt the model prediction. Considering the black-box nature of many LLM-based root cause predictors, fine-tuning or temperature-scaling-based approaches are inapplicable. We therefore design an innovative confidence estimation framework based on prompting retrieval-augmented large language models (LLMs) that demand a minimal amount of information from the root cause predictor. This approach consists of two scoring phases: the LLM-based confidence estimator first evaluates its confidence in making judgments in the face of the current incident that reflects its ``grounded-ness" level in reference data, then rates the root cause prediction based on historical references. An optimization step combines these two scores for a final confidence assignment. We show that our method is able to produce calibrated confidence estimates for predicted root causes, validate the usefulness of retrieved historical data and the prompting strategy as well as the generalizability across different root cause prediction models. Our study takes an important move towards reliably and effectively embedding LLMs into cloud incident management systems.

Benchmarks for large multimodal language models (MLMs) now serve to simultaneously assess the general capabilities of models instead of evaluating for a specific capability. As a result, when a developer wants to identify which models to use for their application, they are overwhelmed by the number of benchmarks and remain uncertain about which benchmark's results are most reflective of their specific use case. This paper introduces Task-Me-Anything, a benchmark generation engine which produces a benchmark tailored to a user's needs. Task-Me-Anything maintains an extendable taxonomy of visual assets and can programmatically generate a vast number of task instances. Additionally, it algorithmically addresses user queries regarding MLM performance efficiently within a computational budget. It contains 113K images, 10K videos, 2K 3D object assets, over 365 object categories, 655 attributes, and 335 relationships. It can generate 750M image/video question-answering pairs, which focus on evaluating MLM perceptual capabilities. Task-Me-Anything reveals critical insights: open-source MLMs excel in object and attribute recognition but lack spatial and temporal understanding; each model exhibits unique strengths and weaknesses; larger models generally perform better, though exceptions exist; and GPT4o demonstrates challenges in recognizing rotating/moving objects and distinguishing colors.

The past two decades have witnessed the rapid development of personalized recommendation techniques. Despite significant progress made in both research and practice of recommender systems, to date, there is a lack of a widely-recognized benchmarking standard in this field. Many existing studies perform model evaluations and comparisons in an ad-hoc manner, for example, by employing their own private data splits or using different experimental settings. Such conventions not only increase the difficulty in reproducing existing studies, but also lead to inconsistent experimental results among them. This largely limits the credibility and practical value of research results in this field. To tackle these issues, we present an initiative project (namely BARS) aiming for open benchmarking for recommender systems. In comparison to some earlier attempts towards this goal, we take a further step by setting up a standardized benchmarking pipeline for reproducible research, which integrates all the details about datasets, source code, hyper-parameter settings, running logs, and evaluation results. The benchmark is designed with comprehensiveness and sustainability in mind. It covers both matching and ranking tasks, and also enables researchers to easily follow and contribute to the research in this field. This project will not only reduce the redundant efforts of researchers to re-implement or re-run existing baselines, but also drive more solid and reproducible research on recommender systems. We would like to call upon everyone to use the BARS benchmark for future evaluation, and contribute to the project through the portal at: https://openbenchmark.github.io/BARS.

The ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to critique and refine their reasoning is crucial for their application in evaluation, feedback provision, and self-improvement. This paper introduces CriticBench, a comprehensive benchmark designed to assess LLMs' abilities to critique and rectify their reasoning across a variety of tasks. CriticBench encompasses five reasoning domains: mathematical, commonsense, symbolic, coding, and algorithmic. It compiles 15 datasets and incorporates responses from three LLM families. Utilizing CriticBench, we evaluate and dissect the performance of 17 LLMs in generation, critique, and correction reasoning, i.e., GQC reasoning. Our findings reveal: (1) a linear relationship in GQC capabilities, with critique-focused training markedly enhancing performance; (2) a task-dependent variation in correction effectiveness, with logic-oriented tasks being more amenable to correction; (3) GQC knowledge inconsistencies that decrease as model size increases; and (4) an intriguing inter-model critiquing dynamic, where stronger models are better at critiquing weaker ones, while weaker models can surprisingly surpass stronger ones in their self-critique. We hope these insights into the nuanced critique-correct reasoning of LLMs will foster further research in LLM critique and self-improvement.

We test and study the variation in speech recognition of fine-tuned versions of the Whisper model on child, elderly and non-native Dutch speech from the JASMIN-CGN corpus. Our primary goal is to evaluate how speakers' age and linguistic background influence Whisper's performance. Whisper achieves varying Word Error Rates (WER) when fine-tuned on subpopulations of specific ages and linguistic backgrounds. Fine-tuned performance is remarkably better than zero-shot performance, achieving a relative reduction in WER of 81% for native children, 72% for non-native children, 67% for non-native adults, and 65% for native elderly people. Our findings underscore the importance of training speech recognition models like Whisper on underrepresented subpopulations such as children, the elderly, and non-native speakers.

With deep learning models rapidly growing in size, systems-level solutions for large-model training are required. We present Amazon SageMaker model parallelism, a software library that integrates with PyTorch, and enables easy training of large models using model parallelism and other memory-saving features. In contrast to existing solutions, the implementation of the SageMaker library is much more generic and flexible, in that it can automatically partition and run pipeline parallelism over arbitrary model architectures with minimal code change, and also offers a general and extensible framework for tensor parallelism, which supports a wider range of use cases, and is modular enough to be easily applied to new training scripts. The library also preserves the native PyTorch user experience to a much larger degree, supporting module re-use and dynamic graphs, while giving the user full control over the details of the training step. We evaluate performance over GPT-3, RoBERTa, BERT, and neural collaborative filtering, and demonstrate competitive performance over existing solutions.

Failure of machine learning models to generalize to new data is a core problem limiting the reliability of AI systems, partly due to the lack of simple and robust methods for comparing new data to the original training dataset. We propose a standardized approach for assessing data similarity in a model-agnostic manner by constructing a supervised autoencoder for generalizability estimation (SAGE). We compare points in a low-dimensional embedded latent space, defining empirical probability measures for k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) distance, reconstruction of inputs and task-based performance. As proof of concept for classification tasks, we use MNIST and CIFAR-10 to demonstrate how an ensemble output probability score can separate deformed images from a mixture of typical test examples, and how this SAGE score is robust to transformations of increasing severity. As further proof of concept, we extend this approach to a regression task using non-imaging data (UCI Abalone). In all cases, we show that out-of-the-box model performance increases after SAGE score filtering, even when applied to data from the model's own training and test datasets. Our out-of-distribution scoring method can be introduced during several steps of model construction and assessment, leading to future improvements in responsible deep learning implementation.

When developing new large language models (LLMs), a key step is evaluating their final performance, often by computing the win-rate against a reference model based on external feedback. Human feedback is the gold standard, particularly for capturing nuanced qualities like coherence, readability, and alignment with human expectations. However, human evaluations are costly -- even for large tech companies -- and when conducted with active users, they may negatively impact user experience. A promising alternative is synthetic feedback, where evaluations are conducted by other large language models, including reward models. While this eliminates the need for costly human annotations, it introduces biases that may distort the evaluation process. In this work, we propose a statistically principled framework that integrates human and synthetic feedback to reduce reliance on human annotations while maintaining unbiased win-rate calculations. Our experiments demonstrate a reduction in human annotations by up to 12.2% with an off-the-shelf synthetic evaluator and up to 24.8% with a finetuned variant. Apart from being generalizable, scalable, and free of hyper-parameter tuning, our method offers predictable annotation savings, which can be estimated based on data-dependent characteristics.

Solving complex classification tasks using deep neural networks typically requires large amounts of annotated data. However, corresponding class labels are noisy when provided by error-prone annotators, e.g., crowd workers. Training standard deep neural networks leads to subpar performances in such multi-annotator supervised learning settings. We address this issue by presenting a probabilistic training framework named multi-annotator deep learning (MaDL). A ground truth and an annotator performance model are jointly trained in an end-to-end learning approach. The ground truth model learns to predict instances' true class labels, while the annotator performance model infers probabilistic estimates of annotators' performances. A modular network architecture enables us to make varying assumptions regarding annotators' performances, e.g., an optional class or instance dependency. Further, we learn annotator embeddings to estimate annotators' densities within a latent space as proxies of their potentially correlated annotations. Together with a weighted loss function, we improve the learning from correlated annotation patterns. In a comprehensive evaluation, we examine three research questions about multi-annotator supervised learning. Our findings indicate MaDL's state-of-the-art performance and robustness against many correlated, spamming annotators.

This case study investigates the task of job classification in a real-world setting, where the goal is to determine whether an English-language job posting is appropriate for a graduate or entry-level position. We explore multiple approaches to text classification, including supervised approaches such as traditional models like Support Vector Machines (SVMs) and state-of-the-art deep learning methods such as DeBERTa. We compare them with Large Language Models (LLMs) used in both few-shot and zero-shot classification settings. To accomplish this task, we employ prompt engineering, a technique that involves designing prompts to guide the LLMs towards the desired output. Specifically, we evaluate the performance of two commercially available state-of-the-art GPT-3.5-based language models, text-davinci-003 and gpt-3.5-turbo. We also conduct a detailed analysis of the impact of different aspects of prompt engineering on the model's performance. Our results show that, with a well-designed prompt, a zero-shot gpt-3.5-turbo classifier outperforms all other models, achieving a 6% increase in Precision@95% Recall compared to the best supervised approach. Furthermore, we observe that the wording of the prompt is a critical factor in eliciting the appropriate "reasoning" in the model, and that seemingly minor aspects of the prompt significantly affect the model's performance.

Estimating the performance difficulty of a musical score is crucial in music education for adequately designing the learning curriculum of the students. Although the Music Information Retrieval community has recently shown interest in this task, existing approaches mainly use machine-readable scores, leaving the broader case of sheet music images unaddressed. Based on previous works involving sheet music images, we use a mid-level representation, bootleg score, describing notehead positions relative to staff lines coupled with a transformer model. This architecture is adapted to our task by introducing an encoding scheme that reduces the encoded sequence length to one-eighth of the original size. In terms of evaluation, we consider five datasets -- more than 7500 scores with up to 9 difficulty levels -- , two of them particularly compiled for this work. The results obtained when pretraining the scheme on the IMSLP corpus and fine-tuning it on the considered datasets prove the proposal's validity, achieving the best-performing model with a balanced accuracy of 40.34\% and a mean square error of 1.33. Finally, we provide access to our code, data, and models for transparency and reproducibility.

The performance of Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems has constantly increased in state-of-the-art development. However, performance tends to decrease considerably in more challenging conditions (e.g., background noise, multiple speaker social conversations) and with more atypical speakers (e.g., children, non-native speakers or people with speech disorders), which signifies that general improvements do not necessarily transfer to applications that rely on ASR, e.g., educational software for younger students or language learners. In this study, we focus on the gap in performance between recognition results for native and non-native, read and spontaneous, Swedish utterances transcribed by different ASR services. We compare the recognition results using Word Error Rate and analyze the linguistic factors that may generate the observed transcription errors.

We report the development of GPT-4, a large-scale, multimodal model which can accept image and text inputs and produce text outputs. While less capable than humans in many real-world scenarios, GPT-4 exhibits human-level performance on various professional and academic benchmarks, including passing a simulated bar exam with a score around the top 10% of test takers. GPT-4 is a Transformer-based model pre-trained to predict the next token in a document. The post-training alignment process results in improved performance on measures of factuality and adherence to desired behavior. A core component of this project was developing infrastructure and optimization methods that behave predictably across a wide range of scales. This allowed us to accurately predict some aspects of GPT-4's performance based on models trained with no more than 1/1,000th the compute of GPT-4.

The effectiveness of feedback in enhancing learning outcomes is well documented within Educational Data Mining (EDM). Various prior research has explored methodologies to enhance the effectiveness of feedback. Recent developments in Large Language Models (LLMs) have extended their utility in enhancing automated feedback systems. This study aims to explore the potential of LLMs in facilitating automated feedback in math education. We examine the effectiveness of LLMs in evaluating student responses by comparing 3 different models: Llama, SBERT-Canberra, and GPT4 model. The evaluation requires the model to provide both a quantitative score and qualitative feedback on the student's responses to open-ended math problems. We employ Mistral, a version of Llama catered to math, and fine-tune this model for evaluating student responses by leveraging a dataset of student responses and teacher-written feedback for middle-school math problems. A similar approach was taken for training the SBERT model as well, while the GPT4 model used a zero-shot learning approach. We evaluate the model's performance in scoring accuracy and the quality of feedback by utilizing judgments from 2 teachers. The teachers utilized a shared rubric in assessing the accuracy and relevance of the generated feedback. We conduct both quantitative and qualitative analyses of the model performance. By offering a detailed comparison of these methods, this study aims to further the ongoing development of automated feedback systems and outlines potential future directions for leveraging generative LLMs to create more personalized learning experiences.

While the general machine learning (ML) community has benefited from public datasets, tasks, and models, the progress of ML in healthcare has been hampered by a lack of such shared assets. The success of foundation models creates new challenges for healthcare ML by requiring access to shared pretrained models to validate performance benefits. We help address these challenges through three contributions. First, we publish a new dataset, EHRSHOT, which contains deidentified structured data from the electronic health records (EHRs) of 6,739 patients from Stanford Medicine. Unlike MIMIC-III/IV and other popular EHR datasets, EHRSHOT is longitudinal and not restricted to ICU/ED patients. Second, we publish the weights of CLMBR-T-base, a 141M parameter clinical foundation model pretrained on the structured EHR data of 2.57M patients. We are one of the first to fully release such a model for coded EHR data; in contrast, most prior models released for clinical data (e.g. GatorTron, ClinicalBERT) only work with unstructured text and cannot process the rich, structured data within an EHR. We provide an end-to-end pipeline for the community to validate and build upon its performance. Third, we define 15 few-shot clinical prediction tasks, enabling evaluation of foundation models on benefits such as sample efficiency and task adaptation. Our model and dataset are available via a research data use agreement from the Stanford AIMI Center. Code to reproduce our results are available at our Github repo: https://github.com/som-shahlab/ehrshot-benchmark

We propose a multitask pretraining approach ZeroPrompt for zero-shot generalization, focusing on task scaling and zero-shot prompting. While previous models are trained on only a few dozen tasks, we scale to 1,000 tasks for the first time using real-world data. This leads to a crucial discovery that task scaling can be an efficient alternative to model scaling; i.e., the model size has little impact on performance with an extremely large number of tasks. Our results show that task scaling can substantially improve training efficiency by 30 times in FLOPs. Moreover, we present a prompting method that incorporates a genetic algorithm to automatically search for the best prompt for unseen tasks, along with a few other improvements. Empirically, ZeroPrompt substantially improves both the efficiency and the performance of zero-shot learning across a variety of academic and production datasets.

Latent factor models are the driving forces of the state-of-the-art recommender systems, with an important insight of vectorizing raw input features into dense embeddings. The dimensions of different feature embeddings are often set to a same value empirically, which limits the predictive performance of latent factor models. Existing works have proposed heuristic or reinforcement learning-based methods to search for mixed feature embedding dimensions. For efficiency concern, these methods typically choose embedding dimensions from a restricted set of candidate dimensions. However, this restriction will hurt the flexibility of dimension selection, leading to suboptimal performance of search results. In this paper, we propose Differentiable Neural Input Search (DNIS), a method that searches for mixed feature embedding dimensions in a more flexible space through continuous relaxation and differentiable optimization. The key idea is to introduce a soft selection layer that controls the significance of each embedding dimension, and optimize this layer according to model's validation performance. DNIS is model-agnostic and thus can be seamlessly incorporated with existing latent factor models for recommendation. We conduct experiments with various architectures of latent factor models on three public real-world datasets for rating prediction, Click-Through-Rate (CTR) prediction, and top-k item recommendation. The results demonstrate that our method achieves the best predictive performance compared with existing neural input search approaches with fewer embedding parameters and less time cost.

Pre-trained language models can be fine-tuned to solve diverse NLP tasks, including in few-shot settings. Thus fine-tuning allows the model to quickly pick up task-specific ``skills,'' but there has been limited study of where these newly-learnt skills reside inside the massive model. This paper introduces the term skill localization for this problem and proposes a solution. Given the downstream task and a model fine-tuned on that task, a simple optimization is used to identify a very small subset of parameters (sim0.01% of model parameters) responsible for (>95%) of the model's performance, in the sense that grafting the fine-tuned values for just this tiny subset onto the pre-trained model gives performance almost as well as the fine-tuned model. While reminiscent of recent works on parameter-efficient fine-tuning, the novel aspects here are that: (i) No further re-training is needed on the subset (unlike, say, with lottery tickets). (ii) Notable improvements are seen over vanilla fine-tuning with respect to calibration of predictions in-distribution (40-90% error reduction) as well as the quality of predictions out-of-distribution (OOD). In models trained on multiple tasks, a stronger notion of skill localization is observed, where the sparse regions corresponding to different tasks are almost disjoint, and their overlap (when it happens) is a proxy for task similarity. Experiments suggest that localization via grafting can assist certain forms of continual learning.

Accurately modeling the relationships between skills is a crucial part of human resources processes such as recruitment and employee development. Yet, no benchmarks exist to evaluate such methods directly. We construct and release SkillMatch, a benchmark for the task of skill relatedness, based on expert knowledge mining from millions of job ads. Additionally, we propose a scalable self-supervised learning technique to adapt a Sentence-BERT model based on skill co-occurrence in job ads. This new method greatly surpasses traditional models for skill relatedness as measured on SkillMatch. By releasing SkillMatch publicly, we aim to contribute a foundation for research towards increased accuracy and transparency of skill-based recommendation systems.

When selecting data for training large-scale models, standard practice is to filter for examples that match human notions of data quality. Such filtering yields qualitatively clean datapoints that intuitively should improve model behavior. However, in practice the opposite can often happen: we find that selecting according to similarity with "high quality" data sources may not increase (and can even hurt) performance compared to randomly selecting data. To develop better methods for selecting data, we start by framing dataset selection as an optimization problem that we can directly solve for: given target tasks, a learning algorithm, and candidate data, select the subset that maximizes model performance. This framework thus avoids handpicked notions of data quality, and instead models explicitly how the learning process uses train datapoints to predict on the target tasks. Our resulting method greatly improves language model (LM) performance on both pre-specified tasks and previously unseen tasks. Specifically, choosing target tasks representative of standard LM problems and evaluating on diverse held-out benchmarks, our selected datasets provide a 2x compute multiplier over baseline methods.

We developed an explainable artificial intelligence (AI) early warning score (xAI-EWS) system for early detection of acute critical illness. While maintaining a high predictive performance, our system explains to the clinician on which relevant electronic health records (EHRs) data the prediction is grounded. Acute critical illness is often preceded by deterioration of routinely measured clinical parameters, e.g., blood pressure and heart rate. Early clinical prediction is typically based on manually calculated screening metrics that simply weigh these parameters, such as Early Warning Scores (EWS). The predictive performance of EWSs yields a tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity that can lead to negative outcomes for the patient. Previous work on EHR-trained AI systems offers promising results with high levels of predictive performance in relation to the early, real-time prediction of acute critical illness. However, without insight into the complex decisions by such system, clinical translation is hindered. In this letter, we present our xAI-EWS system, which potentiates clinical translation by accompanying a prediction with information on the EHR data explaining it.

Reward models are critical for aligning models to follow instructions, and are typically trained following one of two popular paradigms: Bradley-Terry style or Regression style. However, there is a lack of evidence that either approach is better than the other, when adequately matched for data. This is primarily because these approaches require data collected in different (but incompatible) formats, meaning that adequately matched data is not available in existing public datasets. To tackle this problem, we release preference annotations (designed for Bradley-Terry training) to complement existing ratings (designed for Regression style training) in the HelpSteer2 dataset. To improve data interpretability, preference annotations are accompanied with human-written justifications. Using this data, we conduct the first head-to-head comparison of Bradley-Terry and Regression models when adequately matched for data. Based on insights derived from such a comparison, we propose a novel approach to combine Bradley-Terry and Regression reward modeling. A Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct model tuned with this approach scores 94.1 on RewardBench, emerging top of more than 140 reward models as of 1 Oct 2024. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of this reward model at aligning models to follow instructions in RLHF. We open-source this dataset (CC-BY-4.0 license) at https://huggingface.co/datasets/nvidia/HelpSteer2 and openly release the trained Reward Model at https://huggingface.co/nvidia/Llama-3.1-Nemotron-70B-Reward

Instruction tuning is a burgeoning method to elicit the general intelligence of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, the creation of instruction data is still largely heuristic, leading to significant variation in quality and distribution across existing datasets. Experimental conclusions drawn from these datasets are also inconsistent, with some studies emphasizing the importance of scaling instruction numbers, while others argue that a limited number of samples suffice. To better understand data construction guidelines, we deepen our focus from the overall model performance to the growth of each underlying ability, such as creative writing, code generation, and logical reasoning. We systematically investigate the effects of data volume, parameter size, and data construction methods on the development of various abilities, using hundreds of model checkpoints (7b to 33b) fully instruction-tuned on a new collection of over 40k human-curated instruction data. This proposed dataset is stringently quality-controlled and categorized into ten distinct LLM abilities. Our study reveals three primary findings: (i) Despite data volume and parameter scale directly impacting models' overall performance, some abilities are more responsive to their increases and can be effectively trained using limited data, while some are highly resistant to these changes. (ii) Human-curated data strongly outperforms synthetic data from GPT-4 in efficiency and can constantly enhance model performance with volume increases, but is unachievable with synthetic data. (iii) Instruction data brings powerful cross-ability generalization, with evaluation results on out-of-domain data mirroring the first two observations. Furthermore, we demonstrate how these findings can guide more efficient data constructions, leading to practical performance improvements on public benchmarks.

For a long time, different recommendation tasks typically require designing task-specific architectures and training objectives. As a result, it is hard to transfer the learned knowledge and representations from one task to another, thus restricting the generalization ability of existing recommendation approaches, e.g., a sequential recommendation model can hardly be applied or transferred to a review generation method. To deal with such issues, considering that language can describe almost anything and language grounding is a powerful medium to represent various problems or tasks, we present a flexible and unified text-to-text paradigm called "Pretrain, Personalized Prompt, and Predict Paradigm" (P5) for recommendation, which unifies various recommendation tasks in a shared framework. In P5, all data such as user-item interactions, user descriptions, item metadata, and user reviews are converted to a common format -- natural language sequences. The rich information from natural language assists P5 to capture deeper semantics for personalization and recommendation. Specifically, P5 learns different tasks with the same language modeling objective during pretraining. Thus, it serves as the foundation model for various downstream recommendation tasks, allows easy integration with other modalities, and enables instruction-based recommendation based on prompts. P5 advances recommender systems from shallow model to deep model to big model, and will revolutionize the technical form of recommender systems towards universal recommendation engine. With adaptive personalized prompt for different users, P5 is able to make predictions in a zero-shot or few-shot manner and largely reduces the necessity for extensive fine-tuning. On several recommendation benchmarks, we conduct experiments to show the effectiveness of P5. We release the source code at https://github.com/jeykigung/P5.

How can "weak teacher models" such as average human annotators or existing AI systems, effectively supervise LLMs to improve performance on hard reasoning tasks, especially those that challenge and requires expertise or daily practice from the teacher models? In this paper, we seek for empirical answers to this question by investigating various data-driven strategies that offer supervision data at different quality levels upon tasks of varying complexity. Two intuitive strategies emerge for teacher models to provide supervision during alignment training: 1) using lower-quality supervision from complete tasks that match the difficulty of the target reasoning tasks, and 2) leveraging higher-quality supervision from easier subtasks that are less challenging. Interestingly, we find that even when the outcome error rate for hard task supervision is high (e.g., 90\%), training on such data can outperform perfectly correct supervision on easier subtasks on multiple hard math benchmarks. We further identify a more critical factor influencing training performance: step-wise error rates, which indicate the severity of errors in solutions. Specifically, training on hard task supervision with the same outcome error rates but disparate step-wise error rates can lead to a 30\% accuracy gap on MATH benchmark. Our results also reveal that supplementing hard task supervision with the corresponding subtask supervision can yield notable performance improvements than simply combining rephrased hard full task supervision, suggesting new avenues for data augmentation. Data and code are released at https://github.com/hexuan21/Weak-to-Strong.

A key puzzle in search, ads, and recommendation is that the ranking model can only utilize a small portion of the vastly available user interaction data. As a result, increasing data volume, model size, or computation FLOPs will quickly suffer from diminishing returns. We examined this problem and found that one of the root causes may lie in the so-called ``item-centric'' formulation, which has an unbounded vocabulary and thus uncontrolled model complexity. To mitigate quality saturation, we introduce an alternative formulation named ``user-centric ranking'', which is based on a transposed view of the dyadic user-item interaction data. We show that this formulation has a promising scaling property, enabling us to train better-converged models on substantially larger data sets.

Online continual learning aims to continuously train neural networks from a continuous data stream with a single pass-through data. As the most effective approach, the rehearsal-based methods replay part of previous data. Commonly used predictors in existing methods tend to generate biased dot-product logits that prefer to the classes of current data, which is known as a bias issue and a phenomenon of forgetting. Many approaches have been proposed to overcome the forgetting problem by correcting the bias; however, they still need to be improved in online fashion. In this paper, we try to address the bias issue by a more straightforward and more efficient method. By decomposing the dot-product logits into an angle factor and a norm factor, we empirically find that the bias problem mainly occurs in the angle factor, which can be used to learn novel knowledge as cosine logits. On the contrary, the norm factor abandoned by existing methods helps remember historical knowledge. Based on this observation, we intuitively propose to leverage the norm factor to balance the new and old knowledge for addressing the bias. To this end, we develop a heuristic approach called unbias experience replay (UER). UER learns current samples only by the angle factor and further replays previous samples by both the norm and angle factors. Extensive experiments on three datasets show that UER achieves superior performance over various state-of-the-art methods. The code is in https://github.com/FelixHuiweiLin/UER.

Many businesses and industries nowadays rely on large quantities of time series data making time series forecasting an important research area. Global forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series have shown a huge potential in providing accurate forecasts compared with the traditional univariate forecasting models that work on isolated series. However, there are currently no comprehensive time series archives for forecasting that contain datasets of time series from similar sources available for the research community to evaluate the performance of new global forecasting algorithms over a wide variety of datasets. In this paper, we present such a comprehensive time series forecasting archive containing 20 publicly available time series datasets from varied domains, with different characteristics in terms of frequency, series lengths, and inclusion of missing values. We also characterise the datasets, and identify similarities and differences among them, by conducting a feature analysis. Furthermore, we present the performance of a set of standard baseline forecasting methods over all datasets across eight error metrics, for the benefit of researchers using the archive to benchmark their forecasting algorithms.

We propose pre-finetuning, an additional large-scale learning stage between language model pre-training and fine-tuning. Pre-finetuning is massively multi-task learning (around 50 datasets, over 4.8 million total labeled examples), and is designed to encourage learning of representations that generalize better to many different tasks. We show that pre-finetuning consistently improves performance for pretrained discriminators (e.g.~RoBERTa) and generation models (e.g.~BART) on a wide range of tasks (sentence prediction, commonsense reasoning, MRC, etc.), while also significantly improving sample efficiency during fine-tuning. We also show that large-scale multi-tasking is crucial; pre-finetuning can hurt performance when few tasks are used up until a critical point (usually above 15) after which performance improves linearly in the number of tasks.

Understanding the performance of machine learning (ML) models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Despite recent empirical studies positing a near-perfect linear correlation between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracies, we empirically demonstrate that this correlation is more nuanced under subpopulation shifts. Through rigorous experimentation and analysis across a variety of datasets, models, and training epochs, we demonstrate that OOD performance often has a nonlinear correlation with ID performance in subpopulation shifts. Our findings, which contrast previous studies that have posited a linear correlation in model performance during distribution shifts, reveal a "moon shape" correlation (parabolic uptrend curve) between the test performance on the majority subpopulation and the minority subpopulation. This non-trivial nonlinear correlation holds across model architectures, hyperparameters, training durations, and the imbalance between subpopulations. Furthermore, we found that the nonlinearity of this "moon shape" is causally influenced by the degree of spurious correlations in the training data. Our controlled experiments show that stronger spurious correlation in the training data creates more nonlinear performance correlation. We provide complementary experimental and theoretical analyses for this phenomenon, and discuss its implications for ML reliability and fairness. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the nonlinear effects of model improvement on performance in different subpopulations, and has the potential to inform the development of more equitable and responsible machine learning models.

Recommender systems widely use implicit feedback such as click data because of its general availability. Although the presence of clicks signals the users' preference to some extent, the lack of such clicks does not necessarily indicate a negative response from the users, as it is possible that the users were not exposed to the items (positive-unlabeled problem). This leads to a difficulty in predicting the users' preferences from implicit feedback. Previous studies addressed the positive-unlabeled problem by uniformly upweighting the loss for the positive feedback data or estimating the confidence of each data having relevance information via the EM-algorithm. However, these methods failed to address the missing-not-at-random problem in which popular or frequently recommended items are more likely to be clicked than other items even if a user does not have a considerable interest in them. To overcome these limitations, we first define an ideal loss function to be optimized to realize recommendations that maximize the relevance and propose an unbiased estimator for the ideal loss. Subsequently, we analyze the variance of the proposed unbiased estimator and further propose a clipped estimator that includes the unbiased estimator as a special case. We demonstrate that the clipped estimator is expected to improve the performance of the recommender system, by considering the bias-variance trade-off. We conduct semi-synthetic and real-world experiments and demonstrate that the proposed method largely outperforms the baselines. In particular, the proposed method works better for rare items that are less frequently observed in the training data. The findings indicate that the proposed method can better achieve the objective of recommending items with the highest relevance.

Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no framework for evaluating the accuracy of ML systems on a standardized set of forecasting questions. To address this gap, we introduce ForecastBench: a dynamic benchmark that evaluates the accuracy of ML systems on an automatically generated and regularly updated set of 1,000 forecasting questions. To avoid any possibility of data leakage, ForecastBench is comprised solely of questions about future events that have no known answer at the time of submission. We quantify the capabilities of current ML systems by collecting forecasts from expert (human) forecasters, the general public, and LLMs on a random subset of questions from the benchmark (N=200). While LLMs have achieved super-human performance on many benchmarks, they perform less well here: expert forecasters outperform the top-performing LLM (p-value <0.001). We display system and human scores in a public leaderboard at www.forecastbench.org.

While pretraining on large-scale image-text data from the Web has facilitated rapid progress on many vision-and-language (V&L) tasks, recent work has demonstrated that pretrained models lack "fine-grained" understanding, such as the ability to recognise relationships, verbs, and numbers in images. This has resulted in an increased interest in the community to either develop new benchmarks or models for such capabilities. To better understand and quantify progress in this direction, we investigate four competitive V&L models on four fine-grained benchmarks. Through our analysis, we find that X-VLM (Zeng et al., 2022) consistently outperforms other baselines, and that modelling innovations can impact performance more than scaling Web data, which even degrades performance sometimes. Through a deeper investigation of X-VLM, we highlight the importance of both novel losses and rich data sources for learning fine-grained skills. Finally, we inspect training dynamics, and discover that for some tasks, performance peaks early in training or significantly fluctuates, never converging.

Transferring learned patterns from pretrained neural language models has been shown to significantly improve effectiveness across a variety of language-based tasks, meanwhile further tuning on intermediate tasks has been demonstrated to provide additional performance benefits, provided the intermediate task is sufficiently related to the target task. However, how to identify related tasks is an open problem, and brute-force searching effective task combinations is prohibitively expensive. Hence, the question arises, are we able to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of tasks with no training examples through selective fine-tuning? In this paper, we explore statistical measures that approximate the divergence between domain representations as a means to estimate whether tuning using one task pair will exhibit performance benefits over tuning another. This estimation can then be used to reduce the number of task pairs that need to be tested by eliminating pairs that are unlikely to provide benefits. Through experimentation over 58 tasks and over 6,600 task pair combinations, we demonstrate that statistical measures can distinguish effective task pairs, and the resulting estimates can reduce end-to-end runtime by up to 40%.

As the focus on Large Language Models (LLMs) in the field of recommendation intensifies, the optimization of LLMs for recommendation purposes (referred to as LLM4Rec) assumes a crucial role in augmenting their effectiveness in providing recommendations. However, existing approaches for LLM4Rec often assess performance using restricted sets of candidates, which may not accurately reflect the models' overall ranking capabilities. In this paper, our objective is to investigate the comprehensive ranking capacity of LLMs and propose a two-step grounding framework known as BIGRec (Bi-step Grounding Paradigm for Recommendation). It initially grounds LLMs to the recommendation space by fine-tuning them to generate meaningful tokens for items and subsequently identifies appropriate actual items that correspond to the generated tokens. By conducting extensive experiments on two datasets, we substantiate the superior performance, capacity for handling few-shot scenarios, and versatility across multiple domains exhibited by BIGRec. Furthermore, we observe that the marginal benefits derived from increasing the quantity of training samples are modest for BIGRec, implying that LLMs possess the limited capability to assimilate statistical information, such as popularity and collaborative filtering, due to their robust semantic priors. These findings also underline the efficacy of integrating diverse statistical information into the LLM4Rec framework, thereby pointing towards a potential avenue for future research. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/SAI990323/Grounding4Rec.

Critical thinking is essential for rational decision-making and problem-solving. This skill hinges on the ability to provide precise and reasoned critiques and is a hallmark of human intelligence. In the era of large language models (LLMs), this study explores the ability of LLMs to deliver accurate critiques across various tasks. We are interested in this topic as a capable critic model could not only serve as a reliable evaluator, but also as a source of supervised signals for model tuning. Particularly, if a model can self-critique, it has the potential for autonomous self-improvement. To examine this, we introduce a unified evaluation framework for assessing the critique abilities of LLMs. We develop a benchmark called CriticBench, which comprises 3K high-quality natural language queries and corresponding model responses; and annotate the correctness of these responses. The benchmark cover tasks such as math problem-solving, code completion, and question answering. We evaluate multiple LLMs on the collected dataset and our analysis reveals several noteworthy insights: (1) Critique is generally challenging for most LLMs, and this capability often emerges only when models are sufficiently large. (2) In particular, self-critique is especially difficult. Even top-performing LLMs struggle to achieve satisfactory performance. (3) Models tend to have lower critique accuracy on problems where they are most uncertain. To this end, we introduce a simple yet effective baseline named self-check, which leverages self-critique to improve task performance for various models. We hope this study serves as an initial exploration into understanding the critique abilities of LLMs, and aims to inform future research, including the development of more proficient critic models and the application of critiques across diverse tasks.

In the machine learning ecosystem, hardware selection is often regarded as a mere utility, overshadowed by the spotlight on algorithms and data. This oversight is particularly problematic in contexts like ML-as-a-service platforms, where users often lack control over the hardware used for model deployment. How does the choice of hardware impact generalization properties? This paper investigates the influence of hardware on the delicate balance between model performance and fairness. We demonstrate that hardware choices can exacerbate existing disparities, attributing these discrepancies to variations in gradient flows and loss surfaces across different demographic groups. Through both theoretical and empirical analysis, the paper not only identifies the underlying factors but also proposes an effective strategy for mitigating hardware-induced performance imbalances.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate distributions, or changes in the relationship between label and features. When a model does fail during deployment, attributing performance change to these factors is critical for the model developer to identify the root cause and take mitigating actions. In this work, we introduce the problem of attributing performance differences between environments to distribution shifts in the underlying data generating mechanisms. We formulate the problem as a cooperative game where the players are distributions. We define the value of a set of distributions to be the change in model performance when only this set of distributions has changed between environments, and derive an importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions. The contribution of each distribution to the total performance change is then quantified as its Shapley value. We demonstrate the correctness and utility of our method on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world case studies, showing its effectiveness in attributing performance changes to a wide range of distribution shifts.

Many people aim for change, but not everyone succeeds. While there are a number of social psychology theories that propose motivation-related characteristics of those who persist with change, few computational studies have explored the motivational stage of personal change. In this paper, we investigate a new dataset consisting of the writings of people who manifest intention to change, some of whom persist while others do not. Using a variety of linguistic analysis techniques, we first examine the writing patterns that distinguish the two groups of people. Persistent people tend to reference more topics related to long-term self-improvement and use a more complicated writing style. Drawing on these consistent differences, we build a classifier that can reliably identify the people more likely to persist, based on their language. Our experiments provide new insights into the motivation-related behavior of people who persist with their intention to change.

Peer reviewing is a central component in the scientific publishing process. We present the first public dataset of scientific peer reviews available for research purposes (PeerRead v1) providing an opportunity to study this important artifact. The dataset consists of 14.7K paper drafts and the corresponding accept/reject decisions in top-tier venues including ACL, NIPS and ICLR. The dataset also includes 10.7K textual peer reviews written by experts for a subset of the papers. We describe the data collection process and report interesting observed phenomena in the peer reviews. We also propose two novel NLP tasks based on this dataset and provide simple baseline models. In the first task, we show that simple models can predict whether a paper is accepted with up to 21% error reduction compared to the majority baseline. In the second task, we predict the numerical scores of review aspects and show that simple models can outperform the mean baseline for aspects with high variance such as 'originality' and 'impact'.

In large organisations, identifying experts on a given topic is crucial in leveraging the internal knowledge spread across teams and departments. So-called enterprise expert retrieval systems automatically discover and structure employees' expertise based on the vast amount of heterogeneous data available about them and the work they perform. Evaluating these systems requires comprehensive ground truth expert annotations, which are hard to obtain. Therefore, the annotation process typically relies on automated recommendations of knowledge areas to validate. This case study provides an analysis of how these recommendations can impact the evaluation of expert finding systems. We demonstrate on a popular benchmark that system-validated annotations lead to overestimated performance of traditional term-based retrieval models and even invalidate comparisons with more recent neural methods. We also augment knowledge areas with synonyms to uncover a strong bias towards literal mentions of their constituent words. Finally, we propose constraints to the annotation process to prevent these biased evaluations, and show that this still allows annotation suggestions of high utility. These findings should inform benchmark creation or selection for expert finding, to guarantee meaningful comparison of methods.

A supervised ranking model, despite its advantage of being effective, usually involves complex processing - typically multiple stages of task-specific pre-training and fine-tuning. This has motivated researchers to explore simpler pipelines leveraging large language models (LLMs) that are capable of working in a zero-shot manner. However, since zero-shot inference does not make use of a training set of pairs of queries and their relevant documents, its performance is mostly worse than that of supervised models, which are trained on such example pairs. Motivated by the existing findings that training examples generally improve zero-shot performance, in our work, we explore if this also applies to ranking models. More specifically, given a query and a pair of documents, the preference prediction task is improved by augmenting examples of preferences for similar queries from a training set. Our proposed pairwise few-shot ranker demonstrates consistent improvements over the zero-shot baseline on both in-domain (TREC DL) and out-domain (BEIR subset) retrieval benchmarks. Our method also achieves a close performance to that of a supervised model without requiring any complex training pipeline.

Current pre-trained language models rely on large datasets for achieving state-of-the-art performance. However, past research has shown that not all examples in a dataset are equally important during training. In fact, it is sometimes possible to prune a considerable fraction of the training set while maintaining the test performance. Established on standard vision benchmarks, two gradient-based scoring metrics for finding important examples are GraNd and its estimated version, EL2N. In this work, we employ these two metrics for the first time in NLP. We demonstrate that these metrics need to be computed after at least one epoch of fine-tuning and they are not reliable in early steps. Furthermore, we show that by pruning a small portion of the examples with the highest GraNd/EL2N scores, we can not only preserve the test accuracy, but also surpass it. This paper details adjustments and implementation choices which enable GraNd and EL2N to be applied to NLP.

Machine learning techniques are effective for building predictive models because they identify patterns in large datasets. Development of a model for complex real-life problems often stop at the point of publication, proof of concept or when made accessible through some mode of deployment. However, a model in the medical domain risks becoming obsolete as patient demographics, systems and clinical practices change. The maintenance and monitoring of predictive model performance post-publication is crucial to enable their safe and effective long-term use. We will assess the infrastructure required to monitor the outputs of a machine learning algorithm, and present two scenarios with examples of monitoring and updates of models, firstly on a breast cancer prognosis model trained on public longitudinal data, and secondly on a neurodegenerative stratification algorithm that is currently being developed and tested in clinic.

There is a rapidly growing number of open-source Large Language Models (LLMs) and benchmark datasets to compare them. While some models dominate these benchmarks, no single model typically achieves the best accuracy in all tasks and use cases. In this work, we address the challenge of selecting the best LLM out of a collection of models for new tasks. We propose a new formulation for the problem, in which benchmark datasets are repurposed to learn a "router" model for this LLM selection, and we show that this problem can be reduced to a collection of binary classification tasks. We demonstrate the utility and limitations of learning model routers from various benchmark datasets, where we consistently improve performance upon using any single model for all tasks.

As machine learning models evolve, maintaining transparency demands more human-centric explainable AI techniques. Counterfactual explanations, with roots in human reasoning, identify the minimal input changes needed to obtain a given output and, hence, are crucial for supporting decision-making. Despite their importance, the evaluation of these explanations often lacks grounding in user studies and remains fragmented, with existing metrics not fully capturing human perspectives. To address this challenge, we developed a diverse set of 30 counterfactual scenarios and collected ratings across 8 evaluation metrics from 206 respondents. Subsequently, we fine-tuned different Large Language Models (LLMs) to predict average or individual human judgment across these metrics. Our methodology allowed LLMs to achieve an accuracy of up to 63% in zero-shot evaluations and 85% (over a 3-classes prediction) with fine-tuning across all metrics. The fine-tuned models predicting human ratings offer better comparability and scalability in evaluating different counterfactual explanation frameworks.

In the landscape of Recommender System (RS) applications, reinforcement learning (RL) has recently emerged as a powerful tool, primarily due to its proficiency in optimizing long-term rewards. Nevertheless, it suffers from instability in the learning process, stemming from the intricate interactions among bootstrapping, off-policy training, and function approximation. Moreover, in multi-reward recommendation scenarios, designing a proper reward setting that reconciles the inner dynamics of various tasks is quite intricate. In response to these challenges, we introduce DT4IER, an advanced decision transformer-based recommendation model that is engineered to not only elevate the effectiveness of recommendations but also to achieve a harmonious balance between immediate user engagement and long-term retention. The DT4IER applies an innovative multi-reward design that adeptly balances short and long-term rewards with user-specific attributes, which serve to enhance the contextual richness of the reward sequence ensuring a more informed and personalized recommendation process. To enhance its predictive capabilities, DT4IER incorporates a high-dimensional encoder, skillfully designed to identify and leverage the intricate interrelations across diverse tasks. Furthermore, we integrate a contrastive learning approach within the action embedding predictions, a strategy that significantly boosts the model's overall performance. Experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of DT4IER against state-of-the-art Sequential Recommender Systems (SRSs) and Multi-Task Learning (MTL) models in terms of both prediction accuracy and effectiveness in specific tasks. The source code is accessible online to facilitate replication

In this work we explore recent advances in instruction-tuning language models on a range of open instruction-following datasets. Despite recent claims that open models can be on par with state-of-the-art proprietary models, these claims are often accompanied by limited evaluation, making it difficult to compare models across the board and determine the utility of various resources. We provide a large set of instruction-tuned models from 6.7B to 65B parameters in size, trained on 12 instruction datasets ranging from manually curated (e.g., OpenAssistant) to synthetic and distilled (e.g., Alpaca) and systematically evaluate them on their factual knowledge, reasoning, multilinguality, coding, and open-ended instruction following abilities through a collection of automatic, model-based, and human-based metrics. We further introduce T\"ulu, our best performing instruction-tuned model suite finetuned on a combination of high-quality open resources. Our experiments show that different instruction-tuning datasets can uncover or enhance specific skills, while no single dataset (or combination) provides the best performance across all evaluations. Interestingly, we find that model and human preference-based evaluations fail to reflect differences in model capabilities exposed by benchmark-based evaluations, suggesting the need for the type of systemic evaluation performed in this work. Our evaluations show that the best model in any given evaluation reaches on average 83% of ChatGPT performance, and 68% of GPT-4 performance, suggesting that further investment in building better base models and instruction-tuning data is required to close the gap. We release our instruction-tuned models, including a fully finetuned 65B T\"ulu, along with our code, data, and evaluation framework at https://github.com/allenai/open-instruct to facilitate future research.

Fine-tuning Large Language Models (LLMs) on specific datasets is a common practice to improve performance on target tasks. However, this performance gain often leads to overfitting, where the model becomes too specialized in either the task or the characteristics of the training data, resulting in a loss of generalization. This paper introduces Selective Self-Rehearsal (SSR), a fine-tuning approach that achieves performance comparable to the standard supervised fine-tuning (SFT) while improving generalization. SSR leverages the fact that there can be multiple valid responses to a query. By utilizing the model's correct responses, SSR reduces model specialization during the fine-tuning stage. SSR first identifies the correct model responses from the training set by deploying an appropriate LLM as a judge. Then, it fine-tunes the model using the correct model responses and the gold response for the remaining samples. The effectiveness of SSR is demonstrated through experiments on the task of identifying unanswerable queries across various datasets. The results show that standard SFT can lead to an average performance drop of up to 16.7% on multiple benchmarks, such as MMLU and TruthfulQA. In contrast, SSR results in close to 2% drop on average, indicating better generalization capabilities compared to standard SFT.

We introduce a boosting algorithm to pre-process data for fairness. Starting from an initial fair but inaccurate distribution, our approach shifts towards better data fitting while still ensuring a minimal fairness guarantee. To do so, it learns the sufficient statistics of an exponential family with boosting-compliant convergence. Importantly, we are able to theoretically prove that the learned distribution will have a representation rate and statistical rate data fairness guarantee. Unlike recent optimization based pre-processing methods, our approach can be easily adapted for continuous domain features. Furthermore, when the weak learners are specified to be decision trees, the sufficient statistics of the learned distribution can be examined to provide clues on sources of (un)fairness. Empirical results are present to display the quality of result on real-world data.

When training data are collected from human annotators, the design of the annotation instrument, the instructions given to annotators, the characteristics of the annotators, and their interactions can impact training data. This study demonstrates that design choices made when creating an annotation instrument also impact the models trained on the resulting annotations. We introduce the term annotation sensitivity to refer to the impact of annotation data collection methods on the annotations themselves and on downstream model performance and predictions. We collect annotations of hate speech and offensive language in five experimental conditions of an annotation instrument, randomly assigning annotators to conditions. We then fine-tune BERT models on each of the five resulting datasets and evaluate model performance on a holdout portion of each condition. We find considerable differences between the conditions for 1) the share of hate speech/offensive language annotations, 2) model performance, 3) model predictions, and 4) model learning curves. Our results emphasize the crucial role played by the annotation instrument which has received little attention in the machine learning literature. We call for additional research into how and why the instrument impacts the annotations to inform the development of best practices in instrument design.

In domains ranging from computer vision to natural language processing, machine learning models have been shown to exhibit stark disparities, often performing worse for members of traditionally underserved groups. One factor contributing to these performance gaps is a lack of representation in the data the models are trained on. It is often unclear, however, how to operationalize representativeness in specific applications. Here we formalize the problem of creating equitable training datasets, and propose a statistical framework for addressing this problem. We consider a setting where a model builder must decide how to allocate a fixed data collection budget to gather training data from different subgroups. We then frame dataset creation as a constrained optimization problem, in which one maximizes a function of group-specific performance metrics based on (estimated) group-specific learning rates and costs per sample. This flexible approach incorporates preferences of model-builders and other stakeholders, as well as the statistical properties of the learning task. When data collection decisions are made sequentially, we show that under certain conditions this optimization problem can be efficiently solved even without prior knowledge of the learning rates. To illustrate our approach, we conduct a simulation study of polygenic risk scores on synthetic genomic data -- an application domain that often suffers from non-representative data collection. We find that our adaptive sampling strategy outperforms several common data collection heuristics, including equal and proportional sampling, demonstrating the value of strategic dataset design for building equitable models.

Amidst the rapid advancements in generative language models, the investigation of how training data shapes the performance of GPT models is still emerging. This paper presents GPTfluence, a novel approach that leverages a featurized simulation to assess the impact of training examples on the training dynamics of GPT models. Our approach not only traces the influence of individual training instances on performance trajectories, such as loss and other key metrics, on targeted test points but also enables a comprehensive comparison with existing methods across various training scenarios in GPT models, ranging from 14 million to 2.8 billion parameters, across a range of downstream tasks. Contrary to earlier methods that struggle with generalization to new data, GPTfluence introduces a parameterized simulation of training dynamics, demonstrating robust generalization capabilities to unseen training data. This adaptability is evident across both fine-tuning and instruction-tuning scenarios, spanning tasks in natural language understanding and generation. We will make our code and data publicly available.

The ACM Recommender Systems Challenge 2018 focused on the task of automatic music playlist continuation, which is a form of the more general task of sequential recommendation. Given a playlist of arbitrary length with some additional meta-data, the task was to recommend up to 500 tracks that fit the target characteristics of the original playlist. For the RecSys Challenge, Spotify released a dataset of one million user-generated playlists. Participants could compete in two tracks, i.e., main and creative tracks. Participants in the main track were only allowed to use the provided training set, however, in the creative track, the use of external public sources was permitted. In total, 113 teams submitted 1,228 runs to the main track; 33 teams submitted 239 runs to the creative track. The highest performing team in the main track achieved an R-precision of 0.2241, an NDCG of 0.3946, and an average number of recommended songs clicks of 1.784. In the creative track, an R-precision of 0.2233, an NDCG of 0.3939, and a click rate of 1.785 was obtained by the best team. This article provides an overview of the challenge, including motivation, task definition, dataset description, and evaluation. We further report and analyze the results obtained by the top performing teams in each track and explore the approaches taken by the winners. We finally summarize our key findings, discuss generalizability of approaches and results to domains other than music, and list the open avenues and possible future directions in the area of automatic playlist continuation.

This paper presents a computationally efficient variant of gradient boosting for multi-class classification and multi-output regression tasks. Standard gradient boosting uses a 1-vs-all strategy for classifications tasks with more than two classes. This strategy translates in that one tree per class and iteration has to be trained. In this work, we propose the use of multi-output regressors as base models to handle the multi-class problem as a single task. In addition, the proposed modification allows the model to learn multi-output regression problems. An extensive comparison with other multi-ouptut based gradient boosting methods is carried out in terms of generalization and computational efficiency. The proposed method showed the best trade-off between generalization ability and training and predictions speeds.

In this paper, we introduce a novel predict-and-optimize method for profit-driven churn prevention. We frame the task of targeting customers for a retention campaign as a regret minimization problem. The main objective is to leverage individual customer lifetime values (CLVs) to ensure that only the most valuable customers are targeted. In contrast, many profit-driven strategies focus on churn probabilities while considering average CLVs. This often results in significant information loss due to data aggregation. Our proposed model aligns with the guidelines of Predict-and-Optimize (PnO) frameworks and can be efficiently solved using stochastic gradient descent methods. Results from 12 churn prediction datasets underscore the effectiveness of our approach, which achieves the best average performance compared to other well-established strategies in terms of average profit.

Prompt-based fine-tuning has become an essential method for eliciting information encoded in pre-trained language models for a variety of tasks, including text classification. For multi-class classification tasks, prompt-based fine-tuning under low-resource scenarios has resulted in performance levels comparable to those of fully fine-tuning methods. Previous studies have used crafted prompt templates and verbalizers, mapping from the label terms space to the class space, to solve the classification problem as a masked language modeling task. However, cross-domain and fine-grained prompt-based fine-tuning with an automatically enriched verbalizer remains unexplored, mainly due to the difficulty and costs of manually selecting domain label terms for the verbalizer, which requires humans with domain expertise. To address this challenge, we introduce SciPrompt, a framework designed to automatically retrieve scientific topic-related terms for low-resource text classification tasks. To this end, we select semantically correlated and domain-specific label terms within the context of scientific literature for verbalizer augmentation. Furthermore, we propose a new verbalization strategy that uses correlation scores as additional weights to enhance the prediction performance of the language model during model tuning. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art, prompt-based fine-tuning methods on scientific text classification tasks under few and zero-shot settings, especially in classifying fine-grained and emerging scientific topics.

The research community has proposed copious modifications to the Transformer architecture since it was introduced over three years ago, relatively few of which have seen widespread adoption. In this paper, we comprehensively evaluate many of these modifications in a shared experimental setting that covers most of the common uses of the Transformer in natural language processing. Surprisingly, we find that most modifications do not meaningfully improve performance. Furthermore, most of the Transformer variants we found beneficial were either developed in the same codebase that we used or are relatively minor changes. We conjecture that performance improvements may strongly depend on implementation details and correspondingly make some recommendations for improving the generality of experimental results.

While instruction-tuned models have shown remarkable success in various natural language processing tasks, accurately evaluating their ability to follow instructions remains challenging. Existing benchmarks primarily focus on common instructions that align well with what the model learned during training. However, proficiency in responding to these instructions does not necessarily imply strong ability in instruction following. In this paper, we propose a novel instruction-following evaluation protocol called verbalizer manipulation. It instructs the model to verbalize the task label with words aligning with model priors to different extents, adopting verbalizers from highly aligned (e.g., outputting ``postive'' for positive sentiment), to minimally aligned (e.g., outputting ``negative'' for positive sentiment). Verbalizer manipulation can be seamlessly integrated with any classification benchmark to examine the model's reliance on priors and its ability to override them to accurately follow the instructions. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of four major model families across nine datasets, employing twelve sets of verbalizers for each of them. We observe that the instruction-following abilities of models, across different families and scales, are significantly distinguished by their performance on less natural verbalizers. Even the strongest GPT-4 model struggles to perform better than random guessing on the most challenging verbalizer, emphasizing the need for continued advancements to improve their instruction-following abilities.

Low Rank Adaptation (LoRA) has emerged as one of the most widely adopted methods for Parameter Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) of Large Language Models (LLMs). LoRA reduces the number of trainable parameters and memory usage while achieving comparable performance to full fine-tuning. We aim to assess the viability of training and serving LLMs fine-tuned with LoRA in real-world applications. First, we measure the quality of LLMs fine-tuned with quantized low rank adapters across 10 base models and 31 tasks for a total of 310 models. We find that 4-bit LoRA fine-tuned models outperform base models by 34 points and GPT-4 by 10 points on average. Second, we investigate the most effective base models for fine-tuning and assess the correlative and predictive capacities of task complexity heuristics in forecasting the outcomes of fine-tuning. Finally, we evaluate the latency and concurrency capabilities of LoRAX, an open-source Multi-LoRA inference server that facilitates the deployment of multiple LoRA fine-tuned models on a single GPU using shared base model weights and dynamic adapter loading. LoRAX powers LoRA Land, a web application that hosts 25 LoRA fine-tuned Mistral-7B LLMs on a single NVIDIA A100 GPU with 80GB memory. LoRA Land highlights the quality and cost-effectiveness of employing multiple specialized LLMs over a single, general-purpose LLM.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

A central question in natural language understanding (NLU) research is whether high performance demonstrates the models' strong reasoning capabilities. We present an extensive series of controlled experiments where pre-trained language models are exposed to data that have undergone specific corruption transformations. These involve removing instances of specific word classes and often lead to non-sensical sentences. Our results show that performance remains high on most GLUE tasks when the models are fine-tuned or tested on corrupted data, suggesting that they leverage other cues for prediction even in non-sensical contexts. Our proposed data transformations can be used to assess the extent to which a specific dataset constitutes a proper testbed for evaluating models' language understanding capabilities.

There has been considerable recent interest in scoring properties on the basis of eviction risk. The success of methods for eviction prediction is typically evaluated using different measures of predictive accuracy. However, the underlying goal of such prediction is to direct appropriate assistance to households that may be at greater risk so they remain stably housed. Thus, we must ask the question of how useful such predictions are in targeting outreach efforts - informing action. In this paper, we investigate this question using a novel dataset that matches information on properties, evictions, and owners. We perform an eviction prediction task to produce risk scores and then use these risk scores to plan targeted outreach policies. We show that the risk scores are, in fact, useful, enabling a theoretical team of caseworkers to reach more eviction-prone properties in the same amount of time, compared to outreach policies that are either neighborhood-based or focus on buildings with a recent history of evictions. We also discuss the importance of neighborhood and ownership features in both risk prediction and targeted outreach.

Developing clinical prediction models (e.g., mortality prediction) based on electronic health records (EHRs) typically relies on expert opinion for feature selection and adjusting observation window size. This burdens experts and creates a bottleneck in the development process. We propose Retrieval-Enhanced Medical prediction model (REMed) to address such challenges. REMed can essentially evaluate an unlimited number of clinical events, select the relevant ones, and make predictions. This approach effectively eliminates the need for manual feature selection and enables an unrestricted observation window. We verified these properties through experiments on 27 clinical tasks and two independent cohorts from publicly available EHR datasets, where REMed outperformed other contemporary architectures that aim to handle as many events as possible. Notably, we found that the preferences of REMed align closely with those of medical experts. We expect our approach to significantly expedite the development of EHR prediction models by minimizing clinicians' need for manual involvement.

The automation of resume screening is a crucial aspect of the recruitment process in organizations. Automated resume screening systems often encompass a range of natural language processing (NLP) tasks. The advent of Large Language Models (LLMs) has notably enhanced the efficacy of these systems, showcasing their robust generalization abilities across diverse language-related tasks. Accompanying these developments are various agents based on LLMs, which facilitate their application in practical scenarios. This paper introduces a novel LLM-based agent framework for resume screening, aimed at enhancing efficiency and time management in recruitment processes. Our framework is distinct in its ability to efficiently summarize and grade each resume from a large dataset. Moreover, it utilizes LLM agents for decision-making, determining which candidates receive job offers, or which ones to bring in for interviews. To evaluate our framework, we constructed a dataset from actual resumes and conducted simulate a resume screening process. Subsequently, the outcomes of the simulation experiment were compared and subjected to detailed analysis. The results demonstrate that our automated resume screening framework is 11 times faster than traditional manual methods. Furthermore, by fine-tuning the LLMs, we observed a significant improvement in the F1 score, reaching 87.73\%, during the resume sentence classification phase. In the resume summarization and grading phase, our fine-tuned model surpassed the baseline performance of the GPT-3.5 model. Analysis of the decision-making efficacy of the LLM agents in the final offer stage further underscores the potential of LLM agents in transforming resume screening processes.

Despite their success in many natural language tasks, solving math problems remains a significant challenge for large language models (LLMs). A large gap exists between LLMs' pass-at-one and pass-at-N performance in solving math problems, suggesting LLMs might be close to finding correct solutions, motivating our exploration of fine-tuning methods to unlock LLMs' performance. Using the challenging MATH dataset, we investigate three fine-tuning strategies: (1) solution fine-tuning, where we fine-tune to generate a detailed solution for a given math problem; (2) solution-cluster re-ranking, where the LLM is fine-tuned as a solution verifier/evaluator to choose among generated candidate solution clusters; (3) multi-task sequential fine-tuning, which integrates both solution generation and evaluation tasks together efficiently to enhance the LLM performance. With these methods, we present a thorough empirical study on a series of PaLM 2 models and find: (1) The quality and style of the step-by-step solutions used for fine-tuning can make a significant impact on the model performance; (2) While solution re-ranking and majority voting are both effective for improving the model performance when used separately, they can also be used together for an even greater performance boost; (3) Multi-task fine-tuning that sequentially separates the solution generation and evaluation tasks can offer improved performance compared with the solution fine-tuning baseline. Guided by these insights, we design a fine-tuning recipe that yields approximately 58.8% accuracy on the MATH dataset with fine-tuned PaLM 2-L models, an 11.2% accuracy improvement over the few-shot performance of pre-trained PaLM 2-L model with majority voting.

Large language models (LLMs) can suggest missing elements from items listed in a prompt, which can be used for list completion or recommendations based on users' history. However, their performance degrades when presented with too many items, as they start to suggest items already included in the input list. This occurs at around 100 items for mid-2024 flagship LLMs. We evaluate this phenomenon on both synthetic problems (e.g., finding missing numbers in a given range of shuffled integers) and realistic movie recommendation scenarios. We refer to this issue as attention overflow, as preventing repetition requires attending to all items simultaneously. Although iterative loops can mitigate this problem, their costs increase with the repetition rate, affecting the language models' ability to derive novelty from lengthy inputs.

Scientific discoveries often hinge on synthesizing decades of research, a task that potentially outstrips human information processing capacities. Large language models (LLMs) offer a solution. LLMs trained on the vast scientific literature could potentially integrate noisy yet interrelated findings to forecast novel results better than human experts. To evaluate this possibility, we created BrainBench, a forward-looking benchmark for predicting neuroscience results. We find that LLMs surpass experts in predicting experimental outcomes. BrainGPT, an LLM we tuned on the neuroscience literature, performed better yet. Like human experts, when LLMs were confident in their predictions, they were more likely to be correct, which presages a future where humans and LLMs team together to make discoveries. Our approach is not neuroscience-specific and is transferable to other knowledge-intensive endeavors.

Prompt optimization aims to find the best prompt to a large language model (LLM) for a given task. LLMs have been successfully used to help find and improve prompt candidates for single-step tasks. However, realistic tasks for agents are multi-step and introduce new challenges: (1) Prompt content is likely to be more extensive and complex, making it more difficult for LLMs to analyze errors, (2) the impact of an individual step is difficult to evaluate, and (3) different people may have varied preferences about task execution. While humans struggle to optimize prompts, they are good at providing feedback about LLM outputs; we therefore introduce a new LLM-driven discrete prompt optimization framework PRompt Optimization in Multi-Step Tasks (PROMST) that incorporates human-designed feedback rules to automatically offer direct suggestions for improvement. We also use an extra learned heuristic model that predicts prompt performance to efficiently sample from prompt candidates. This approach significantly outperforms both human-engineered prompts and several other prompt optimization methods across 11 representative multi-step tasks (an average 10.6\%-29.3\% improvement to current best methods on five LLMs respectively). We believe our work can serve as a benchmark for automatic prompt optimization for LLM-driven multi-step tasks. Datasets and Codes are available at https://github.com/yongchao98/PROMST. Project Page is available at https://yongchao98.github.io/MIT-REALM-PROMST.

The choice of embedding model is a crucial step in the design of Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) systems. Given the sheer volume of available options, identifying clusters of similar models streamlines this model selection process. Relying solely on benchmark performance scores only allows for a weak assessment of model similarity. Thus, in this study, we evaluate the similarity of embedding models within the context of RAG systems. Our assessment is two-fold: We use Centered Kernel Alignment to compare embeddings on a pair-wise level. Additionally, as it is especially pertinent to RAG systems, we evaluate the similarity of retrieval results between these models using Jaccard and rank similarity. We compare different families of embedding models, including proprietary ones, across five datasets from the popular Benchmark Information Retrieval (BEIR). Through our experiments we identify clusters of models corresponding to model families, but interestingly, also some inter-family clusters. Furthermore, our analysis of top-k retrieval similarity reveals high-variance at low k values. We also identify possible open-source alternatives to proprietary models, with Mistral exhibiting the highest similarity to OpenAI models.

In the heart of "rhythm games" - games where players must perform actions in sync with a piece of music - are "charts", the directives to be given to players. We newly formulate chart generation as a sequence generation task and train a Transformer using a large dataset. We also introduce tempo-informed preprocessing and training procedures, some of which are suggested to be integral for a successful training. Our model is found to outperform the baselines on a large dataset, and is also found to benefit from pretraining and finetuning.

In recent years supervised representation learning has provided state of the art or close to the state of the art results in semantic analysis tasks including ranking and information retrieval. The core idea is to learn how to embed items into a latent space such that they optimize a supervised objective in that latent space. The dimensions of the latent space have no clear semantics, and this reduces the interpretability of the system. For example, in personalization models, it is hard to explain why a particular item is ranked high for a given user profile. We propose a novel model of representation learning called Supervised Explicit Semantic Analysis (SESA) that is trained in a supervised fashion to embed items to a set of dimensions with explicit semantics. The model learns to compare two objects by representing them in this explicit space, where each dimension corresponds to a concept from a knowledge base. This work extends Explicit Semantic Analysis (ESA) with a supervised model for ranking problems. We apply this model to the task of Job-Profile relevance in LinkedIn in which a set of skills defines our explicit dimensions of the space. Every profile and job are encoded to this set of skills their similarity is calculated in this space. We use RNNs to embed text input into this space. In addition to interpretability, our model makes use of the web-scale collaborative skills data that is provided by users for each LinkedIn profile. Our model provides state of the art result while it remains interpretable.

We study the problem of using low computational cost to automate the choices of learners and hyperparameters for an ad-hoc training dataset and error metric, by conducting trials of different configurations on the given training data. We investigate the joint impact of multiple factors on both trial cost and model error, and propose several design guidelines. Following them, we build a fast and lightweight library FLAML which optimizes for low computational resource in finding accurate models. FLAML integrates several simple but effective search strategies into an adaptive system. It significantly outperforms top-ranked AutoML libraries on a large open source AutoML benchmark under equal, or sometimes orders of magnitude smaller budget constraints.

The automation of scientific discovery has been a long-standing goal within the research community, driven by the potential to accelerate knowledge creation. While significant progress has been made using commercial large language models (LLMs) as research assistants or idea generators, the possibility of automating the entire research process with open-source LLMs remains largely unexplored. This paper explores the feasibility of using open-source post-trained LLMs as autonomous agents capable of performing the full cycle of automated research and review, from literature review and manuscript preparation to peer review and paper revision. Our iterative preference training framework consists of CycleResearcher, which conducts research tasks, and CycleReviewer, which simulates the peer review process, providing iterative feedback via reinforcement learning. To train these models, we develop two new datasets, Review-5k and Research-14k, reflecting real-world machine learning research and peer review dynamics. Our results demonstrate that CycleReviewer achieves a 26.89\% improvement in mean absolute error (MAE) over individual human reviewers in predicting paper scores, indicating that LLMs can surpass expert-level performance in research evaluation. In research, the papers generated by the CycleResearcher model achieved a score of 5.36 in simulated peer reviews, surpassing the preprint level of 5.24 from human experts and approaching the accepted paper level of 5.69. This work represents a significant step toward fully automated scientific inquiry, providing ethical safeguards and advancing AI-driven research capabilities. The code, dataset and model weight are released at http://github/minjun-zhu/Researcher.

As large language models (LLMs) become increasingly integrated into daily applications, it is essential to ensure they operate fairly across diverse user demographics. In this work, we show that LLMs suffer from personalization bias, where their performance is impacted when they are personalized to a user's identity. We quantify personalization bias by evaluating the performance of LLMs along two axes - safety and utility. We measure safety by examining how benign LLM responses are to unsafe prompts with and without personalization. We measure utility by evaluating the LLM's performance on various tasks, including general knowledge, mathematical abilities, programming, and reasoning skills. We find that various LLMs, ranging from open-source models like Llama (Touvron et al., 2023) and Mistral (Jiang et al., 2023) to API-based ones like GPT-3.5 and GPT-4o (Ouyang et al., 2022), exhibit significant variance in performance in terms of safety-utility trade-offs depending on the user's identity. Finally, we discuss several strategies to mitigate personalization bias using preference tuning and prompt-based defenses.

We present SmolTulu-1.7b-Instruct, referenced in this report as SmolTulu-DPO-1130, an instruction-tuned language model that adapts AllenAI's Tulu 3 post-training pipeline to enhance Huggingface's SmolLM2-1.7B base model. Through comprehensive empirical analysis using a 135M parameter model, we demonstrate that the relationship between learning rate and batch size significantly impacts model performance in a task-dependent manner. Our findings reveal a clear split: reasoning tasks like ARC and GSM8K benefit from higher learning rate to batch size ratios, while pattern recognition tasks such as HellaSwag and IFEval show optimal performance with lower ratios. These insights informed the development of SmolTulu, which achieves state-of-the-art performance among sub-2B parameter models on instruction following, scoring 67.7% on IFEval (Delta11%), and mathematical reasoning with 51.6% on GSM8K (Delta3.4%), with an alternate version achieving scoring 57.1% on ARC (Delta5.4%). We release our model, training recipes, and ablation studies to facilitate further research in efficient model alignment, demonstrating that careful adaptation of optimization dynamics can help bridge the capability gap between small and large language models.

Recent research has leveraged large language model multi-agent systems for complex problem-solving while trying to reduce the manual effort required to build them, driving the development of automated agent workflow optimization methods. However, existing methods remain inflexible due to representational limitations, a lack of adaptability, and poor scalability when relying on discrete optimization techniques. We address these challenges with ScoreFlow, a simple yet high-performance framework that leverages efficient gradient-based optimization in a continuous space. ScoreFlow incorporates Score-DPO, a novel variant of the direct preference optimization method that accounts for quantitative feedback. Across six benchmarks spanning question answering, coding, and mathematical reasoning, ScoreFlow achieves an 8.2% improvement over existing baselines. Moreover, it empowers smaller models to outperform larger ones with lower inference costs. Project: https://github.com/Gen-Verse/ScoreFlow

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

Political scientists often grapple with data scarcity in text classification. Recently, fine-tuned BERT models and their variants have gained traction as effective solutions to address this issue. In this study, we investigate the potential of GPT-based models combined with prompt engineering as a viable alternative. We conduct a series of experiments across various classification tasks, differing in the number of classes and complexity, to evaluate the effectiveness of BERT-based versus GPT-based models in low-data scenarios. Our findings indicate that while zero-shot and few-shot learning with GPT models provide reasonable performance and are well-suited for early-stage research exploration, they generally fall short - or, at best, match - the performance of BERT fine-tuning, particularly as the training set reaches a substantial size (e.g., 1,000 samples). We conclude by comparing these approaches in terms of performance, ease of use, and cost, providing practical guidance for researchers facing data limitations. Our results are particularly relevant for those engaged in quantitative text analysis in low-resource settings or with limited labeled data.

Employing Large Language Models (LLMs) to assess the quality of generated responses, such as prompting instruct-tuned models or fine-tuning judge models, has become a widely adopted evaluation method. It is also known that such evaluators are vulnerable to biases, such as favoring longer responses. While it is important to overcome this problem, the specifics of these biases remain under-explored. In this work, we qualitatively identify six types of biases inherent in various judge models. We propose EvalBiasBench as a meta-evaluation collection of hand-crafted test cases for each bias type. Additionally, we present de-biasing dataset construction methods and the associated preference dataset OffsetBias. Experimental results demonstrate that fine-tuning on our dataset significantly enhances the robustness of judge models against biases and improves performance across most evaluation scenarios. We release our datasets and the fine-tuned judge model to public.

Large "instruction-tuned" language models (i.e., finetuned to respond to instructions) have demonstrated a remarkable ability to generalize zero-shot to new tasks. Nevertheless, they depend heavily on human-written instruction data that is often limited in quantity, diversity, and creativity, therefore hindering the generality of the tuned model. We conducted a quantitative study to figure out the efficacy of machine-generated annotations, where we compare the results of a fine-tuned BERT model with human v/s machine-generated annotations. Applying our methods to the vanilla GPT-3 model, we saw that machine generated annotations were 78.54% correct and the fine-tuned model achieved a 96.01% model performance compared to the performance with human-labelled annotations. This result shows that machine-generated annotations are a resource and cost effective way to fine-tune down-stream models.

This paper explores the limits of the current generation of large language models for program synthesis in general purpose programming languages. We evaluate a collection of such models (with between 244M and 137B parameters) on two new benchmarks, MBPP and MathQA-Python, in both the few-shot and fine-tuning regimes. Our benchmarks are designed to measure the ability of these models to synthesize short Python programs from natural language descriptions. The Mostly Basic Programming Problems (MBPP) dataset contains 974 programming tasks, designed to be solvable by entry-level programmers. The MathQA-Python dataset, a Python version of the MathQA benchmark, contains 23914 problems that evaluate the ability of the models to synthesize code from more complex text. On both datasets, we find that synthesis performance scales log-linearly with model size. Our largest models, even without finetuning on a code dataset, can synthesize solutions to 59.6 percent of the problems from MBPP using few-shot learning with a well-designed prompt. Fine-tuning on a held-out portion of the dataset improves performance by about 10 percentage points across most model sizes. On the MathQA-Python dataset, the largest fine-tuned model achieves 83.8 percent accuracy. Going further, we study the model's ability to engage in dialog about code, incorporating human feedback to improve its solutions. We find that natural language feedback from a human halves the error rate compared to the model's initial prediction. Additionally, we conduct an error analysis to shed light on where these models fall short and what types of programs are most difficult to generate. Finally, we explore the semantic grounding of these models by fine-tuning them to predict the results of program execution. We find that even our best models are generally unable to predict the output of a program given a specific input.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated an impressive ability to generate code for various programming tasks. In many instances, LLMs can generate a correct program for a task when given numerous trials. Consequently, a recent trend is to do large scale sampling of programs using a model and then filtering/ranking the programs based on the program execution on a small number of known unit tests to select one candidate solution. However, these approaches assume that the unit tests are given and assume the ability to safely execute the generated programs (which can do arbitrary dangerous operations such as file manipulations). Both of the above assumptions are impractical in real-world software development. In this paper, we propose CodeRanker, a neural ranker that can predict the correctness of a sampled program without executing it. Our CodeRanker is fault-aware i.e., it is trained to predict different kinds of execution information such as predicting the exact compile/runtime error type (e.g., an IndexError or a TypeError). We show that CodeRanker can significantly increase the pass@1 accuracy of various code generation models (including Codex, GPT-Neo, GPT-J) on APPS, HumanEval and MBPP datasets.

We study the ranking of individuals, teams, or objects, based on pairwise comparisons between them, using the Bradley-Terry model. Estimates of rankings within this model are commonly made using a simple iterative algorithm first introduced by Zermelo almost a century ago. Here we describe an alternative and similarly simple iteration that provably returns identical results but does so much faster -- over a hundred times faster in some cases. We demonstrate this algorithm with applications to a range of example data sets and derive a number of results regarding its convergence.