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manila, philippines <u+2014> christmas attacks by muslim rebels in christian villages in the southern philippines left at least 14 people dead and may have been partly influenced by the notoriety of the islamic state group, officials said saturday. the dead included nine christian villagers separately gunned down by bangsamoro islamic freedom fighter insurgents and at least five rebels killed by government forces in clashes in three provinces on christmas eve and christmas day, said regional military spokeswoman capt. joan petinglay. about 200 rebels took part in at least eight attacks on thursday and friday, petinglay said by phone. she said the military learned about the impending attacks and secured towns and villages and warned villagers not to venture out, preventing a larger number of casualties. "we learned that the biff had plans to attack civilians and our detachments so we went on heightened alert even before christmas," petinglay said. "that prevented the rebels from attacking villages and inflicting more casualties." despite warnings from the military, five farmers went to their farms thursday to spray insecticide on their crops in maguindanao province and were captured and gunned down by the rebels, she said. in a nearby village in esperanza town in sultan kudarat province, rebels fleeing from army troops took a family hostage on thursday, freeing a mother and her child but killing three men. a village official was also gunned down by the militants late thursday in a village in north cotabato province. villagers in one area hid in a roman catholic church after word of the rebel assaults spread, petinglay said. at least four rebels died in a clash when they assaulted a military outpost in esperanza town on thursday, sparking a gunbattle, the military said. one other wounded rebel was reported to have died in a village clinic, according to petinglay. two homemade bombs were left by the militants in a jungle trail where pursuing army troops would pass, but the soldiers found the explosives, she said. the hard-line rebels broke off from the larger moro islamic liberation front several years ago when they opposed the latter's decision to hold peace talks with the philippine government, opting to continue to fight for a separate homeland in the south for minority muslims in the predominantly catholic philippines. a bangsamoro islamic freedom fighter spokesman said last year that his group supports islamic state militants in syria and iraq. government peace talks negotiator miriam coronel-ferrer said the breakaway rebels may have carried out the attacks to ride on the restiveness fostered by the islamic state group and to exploit delays in the enforcement of a peace deal signed by the government and the moro islamic liberation front last year. "they're riding on the ferment of (the islamic state) and, second, they see uncertainties precisely because of the delay and they want to generate some momentum," ferrer told the associated press. the latest attacks were the most brazen by the breakaway rebels since a military offensive against their group left more than 100 gunmen dead early this year. the rebel faction still has about 100 armed fighters who may have been joined by relatives and new recruits to stage the attacks, the military said. copyright 2015 the associated press. all rights reserved. this material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

14 dead as islamic rebels attack in philippines

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according to numerous scholars who have weighed in since the death of justice antonin scalia over the weekend, historical and constitutional precedent indicates that the president of the united states is elected for a four-year term, and does not stop being president until he or she, um, actually leaves office. that<u+2019>s a hot take on a controversial topic, i know! it<u+2019>s nearly as confusing as the question of who was president at the time of the 9/11 attacks, which marco rubio seems to think took place during some extended bill clinton prequel to <u+201c>the hangover,<u+201d> while george w. bush wore funny costumes and did non-alcoholic jell-o shots and kept forgetting he had taken the oath of office. but history<u+2019>s bunk, as henry ford sorta, kinda said nearly a century ago. and so is reality, at least when it comes to politics in 2016, a year whose revolutionary strangeness demands a new descriptive term. <u+201c>postmodern<u+201d> is way too old-fashioned, too <u+2018>90s. our politics are increasingly post-partisan, post-rational, post-factual and even post-political. even the new york times has noticed. in a story published tuesday about the running battle over judicial appointments between the obama administration and the republican leadership of the senate, reporter charlie savage wonderingly observed that <u+201c>history is no longer a guide in a polarized washington, where partisan warfare over judicial nominations has been escalating for more than a generation.<u+201d> that qualifies as what friedrich nietzsche would have called a <u+201c>daybreak<u+201d> moment, the dawning of a new awareness. (i agree that i quote him too much; that<u+2019>s it for now.) please notice the inherent contradiction in savage<u+2019>s sentence: <u+201c>history<u+201d> is no longer a guide because it is no longer history, that is, because the lessons that a mainstream commentator is supposed to draw from history no longer reflect what has actually happened. the republican party<u+2019>s long-term strategy of paralysis, refusal and denial <u+2014> of crushing all lingering vestiges of democracy under a sodden weight of nihilism and apathy <u+2014> is the new normal. that strategy stretches back at least as far as the bill clinton years, and has gone into koch-funded steroid overdrive in the citizens united era. as its zillionaire funders clearly grasp, that strategy represents the gop<u+2019>s best hope for repeated midterm victories and a stranglehold on congressional power into the indefinite future. it<u+2019>s the strategy that produced the koch brothers<u+2019> greatest single victory, to set against their more visible record of bankrolling losers like scott walker and jeb bush (and, most likely, marco rubio). that victory was, of course, the 37 percent turnout in the 2014 midterms, when both democrats and moderate republicans stayed home in droves and the gop won its largest congressional majority since 1931. so i don<u+2019>t think it<u+2019>s quite right to describe the republican leadership<u+2019>s vow to reject any possible supreme court nominee put forward by president obama during his last year in office as unprecedented or particularly surprising. it<u+2019>s useless to talk about precedent as if that word meant something these days, for starters. there is no relevant precedent for anything happening in american politics right now, except perhaps for some limited parallels one could identify in the severely divided nation of the 1850s, on the cusp of the civil war. as far as surprise goes, give me a break. do i take a cynical view of all the expressions of amazement and righteous indignation from hillary clinton and bernie sanders and every other leading democrat and the entire leftward half of the commentariat? sure i do: they sense political opportunity and the chance to shoot a flattering selfie with the constitution behind them. which is fair play and all, but let<u+2019>s not mistake it for high-minded principle. it might be fair to give sanders an asterisk on this one, but the democratic party as a whole has been a junior partner or fellow traveler in the politics of paralysis, and has done virtually nothing to resist it. it<u+2019>s no secret that the current republican leadership in congress is essentially held hostage by the most extreme elements of its base. we have all forgotten about john boehner, for understandable reasons, but please remember that the duly elected speaker of the house was forced to quit for being not enough of a do-nothing obstructionist. for any elected republican to offer a fair hearing to any obama nominee at any level of government is tantamount to treason; half the republican electorate apparently believes that obama is not a united states citizen and not the lawful president in the first place. what proportion of them believes that obama had scalia murdered in order to ban all guns, open the borders and institute sharia law remains unclear. (<u+201c>i<u+2019>m hearing it<u+2019>s a big topic,<u+201d> says donald trump, fueling a new bump in the polls.) and here we are, facing a supreme court vacancy after the death of the most conservative justice in recent history <u+2014> or ever, quite likely <u+2014> under the aforementioned lame-duck islamo-democratic so-called president. whether the republicans can successfully run out the clock on the obama administration without paying a devastating political price remains to be seen. it<u+2019>s a massive gamble, a game of russian roulette played with four or five bullets in a six-shooter. but their vow to do so is the logical fulfillment of their party<u+2019>s long-term commitment to paralysis as politics, and it comes as a surprise to absolutely nobody in washington. if that tactic poses unknowable hazards for the gop in general and its presidential nominee in particular, that<u+2019>s not because it is qualitatively different from what they<u+2019>ve been doing for years. it<u+2019>s only because it thrusts the nihilistic strategy of the right-wing conserva-trolls who have eaten the republican party<u+2019>s soul into the public<u+2019>s face in blatant and unavoidable fashion. honestly, it was more surprising to hear sen. charles grassley of iowa, chairman of the senate judiciary committee, take half a step back from the gop hive-mind on tuesday and suggest he might actually fulfill his constitutional role to hold hearings on an obama nominee. once upon a time, grassley came off as a right-wing zealot among senate republicans. now he<u+2019>s a congenial bipartisan man of reason, not to mention an 82-year-old incumbent who faces a tough reelection fight in a purple state that obama carried twice. let<u+2019>s not waste any compassion on grassley, because he deserves to ride the slippery slide of ignominy however that happens. but i feel sorry for the folks who are fielding all the outraged phone calls in his capitol hill office right now. i don<u+2019>t know whether it<u+2019>s too late for some tea party firebrand to mount a republican primary challenge in iowa, but i guarantee that question is being pondered right now. it<u+2019>s tempting to express delight at the current gop dilemma, where republicans would seem to face death by fire from the pitchfork-bearing faithful if they move forward with an obama supreme court nominee, and death in the frigid ocean of a national election if they don<u+2019>t. it<u+2019>s tempting if you<u+2019>re wearing ideological blinders, that is, and if you assume that the democratic party, even in its divided and eviscerated state, is guaranteed to reap a glorious victory after a lemming-like wave of republican mass suicide. i don<u+2019>t think that<u+2019>s a safe assumption. our entire bipartisan political system is in dire and potentially terminal condition, and as i keep insisting there are ample reasons to believe that the virus that has destroyed one party has also infected the other, albeit in less dramatic fashion. we<u+2019>re already in a year when the republicans seem likely to nominate a lunatic demagogue who is despised by the entire party leadership <u+2014> and who, whatever he is, is not a <u+201c>conservative<u+201d> by anyone<u+2019>s definition <u+2014> and when a septuagenarian jewish socialist is one or two victories away from being the democratic front-runner. what will come of obama<u+2019>s impending supreme court nomination, and who will inherit the resulting mess next january? i have no idea. but if you still think political normalcy is about to reassert itself, any minute now, i have two words for you: hi, jeb!

political paralysis is the new normal: the gop<u+2019>s scalia gamble may be suicidal, but it<u+2019>s not illogical

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now, historians must begin to consider alternate genealogies of the american right: lineages for the orange-haired monster that no one saw coming. our received narrative of the movement encompassed by barry goldwater and william f. buckley and strom thurmond and milton friedman and ronald reagan just doesn<u+2019>t cut it any longer.<u+00a0> i<u+2019>ve done my best to begin the work<u+2014>thinking through, for instance, trumpism<u+2019>s connection to fascism, a political tradition not heretofore considered all that relevant in the american context. other bodies, however, are buried closer to home. no history of modern conservatism i<u+2019>m aware of finds much significance in the 22,000 nazi sympathizers who rallied for hitler at madison square garden in february 1939, presided over by a giant banner of general george washington that stretched almost all the way to the second deck, capped off by a menacing eagle insignia. nor the now-infamous ku klux klan march through the streets of queens in 1927, when the new york times reported <u+201c>1,000 klansmen and 100 policemen staged a free-for-all,<u+201d> in which according to one contemporary news report all the individuals arrested were wearing klan attire, and that one of those arrestees was donald trump<u+2019>s own father. in the specter of the son<u+2019>s likely ascension as republican nominee, however, such events gather significance. consider the subsequent history of fred trump<u+2019>s career as a developer of middle-class housing in the outer boroughs of new york city. we now know fred trump was notorious enough a racist to draw the attention of woody guthrie, who wrote a song about him in the 1950s: <u+201c>i suppose/ old man trump knows/ just how much/ racial hate/ he stirred up/ in the bloodpot of human hearts/ when he drawed/ that color line/ here at his/ eighteen hundred family project.<u+201d> twenty years later<u+2014>by which time he had brought his son in as his apprentice<u+2014>the hate old man trump stirred in the bloodpot of human hearts became a matter of legal record, when the united states justice department sued trump<u+00a0>p<u+00e8>re et fils for violating the fair housing act of 1968 in operating 39 buildings they owned. testifying in his own defense, young donald (who would soon be seen around town in a chauffeured limousine with a license plate reading <u+201c>djt<u+201d>), testified that he was <u+201c>unfamiliar<u+201d> with the landmark law. as the evidence in the federal case against the trump organization became close to incontrovertible, he told the press the suit was a conspiracy to force them <u+201c>to rent to welfare recipients,<u+201d> a form of <u+201c>reverse discrimination.<u+201d> this proud and open refusal to rent to welfare recipients<u+2014>whom he said contribute to <u+201c>the detriment of tenants who have, for many years, lived in these buildings, raised families in them, and who plan to live there<u+201d><u+2014>was donald trump<u+2019>s defense against racism. it is in this saga that we locate the formation of donald trump<u+2019>s mature political vision of the world, in continuity with america<u+2019>s racist and nativist heyday of the 1920s, and within the context of a cultural world much more familiar to us: new york in the 1970s, that raging cauldron of skyrocketing violent crime, subway trains slathered with graffiti, and a fiscal crisis so dire that even police were laid off in mass<u+2014>then the laid off cops blocked the brooklyn bridge, deflating car tires, and yanking keys from car ignitions. think of trump coming of age in the new york of the 1977 blackout, the search for the son of sam, and howard cosell barking out <u+201c>ladies and gentlemen, the bronx is burning<u+201d> during game two of the world series at yankee stadium as a helicopter hovered over a five-alarm fire at an abandoned elementary school (40 percent of buildings in the bronx were destroyed by the end of the 1970s, mostly via arson<u+2014>often torched by landlords seeking insurance windfalls). think of trump learning about the ins and outs of public life in this new york, a city of a frightened white outer-borough middle-class poised between fight or flight, in which real estate was everywhere and always a battleground, when the politics of race and crime bore all the intensity of civil war. in the invisible bridge i wrote about what it was like in this new york in 1974, the summer when the federal lawsuit against the trumps was approaching its climax, the summer when a controversial new movie began packing theaters across the five boroughs. two years later came an even darker, and considerably more critical, portrait of new york city<u+2019>s escalating culture of vigilantism. in taxi driver, a deranged vietnam veteran speaks what must have been the unspoken inner monologue of any number of real-life new yorkers who felt trapped in an urban sewer: <u+201c>someday a real rain will come and wash all this scum off the streets.<u+201d> pistol in hand, he rehearses his revenge in the mirror: <u+201c>listen, you fuckers, you screwheads. here is a man who would not take it any more. a man who stood up against the scum, the cunts, the dogs, the filth, the shit. here is a man who stood up.<u+201d> when, around that time, wall street journal columnist irving kristol coined the phrase <u+201c>a neoconservative is a liberal who<u+2019>s been mugged by reality<u+201d><u+2014>a bowdlerization of the older adage <u+201c>a conservative is a liberal who<u+2019>s been mugged<u+201d><u+2014>he probably didn<u+2019>t have charles bronson in mind, let alone taxi driver travis bickle. nonetheless the politics is all of a piece. charles bronson conservatism, travis bickle conservatism, the conservatism of avenging angels protecting white innocence in a<u+00a0> <u+201c>liberal<u+201d> metropolis gone mad: this is new york city<u+2019>s unique contribution to the history of conservatism in america, an ideological tradition heretofore unrecognized in the historical literature. but without it, we cannot understand the rise of donald trump. trump<u+2019>s political debut, after all, came in response to a mugging. following the infamous attack on a female jogger in central park, trump purchased full pages in four new york newspapers demanding, <u+201c>bring back the death penalty. bring back our police!<u+201d> all the hallmarks of his present crusade against <u+201c>political correctness<u+201d> were in evidence, such as the harkening to that bygone day when men were men, cops were cops, and punks were punks. he concluded: <u+201c>i miss the feeling of security new york<u+2019>s finest once gave the citizens of this city.<u+201d> as i previously reported, these same police straight-jacketed by liberal timorousness had already coerced the rape suspects into confessions later proven to be false. that<u+2019>s n.y.c.<u+2019>s avenging-angel conservatism in a nutshell. and now that trump is gliding toward an expected landslide<u+00a0>in the new york primary on tuesday, april 19, we must begin the work of excavating its history. we might start with william f. buckley<u+2014>though other scholars can surely date it back further. the national review<u+00a0>editor<u+2019>s quixotic campaign for new york mayor in 1965 is best remembered for a self-effacing quip. (<u+201c>what will you do if you win?<u+201d> he was asked. <u+201c>demand a recount.<u+201d>) buckley himself is now celebrated as the genteel warrior of the conservatism of a more civilized age: the new york times, upon his death in 2008, averred of that 1965 race, <u+201c>he injected a rare degree of lofty oratory into city politics.<u+201d> what he also injected was an unprecedented reactionary thuggishness. like his idea to <u+201c>undertake to quarantine all addicts, even as smallpox carriers would be quarantined during a plague.<u+201d> or <u+201c>relocating chronic welfare cases outside the city limits<u+201d><u+2014>in what his critics described as concentration camps for the poor. the campaign might have begun as a lark. he received hardly more than 10 percent of the vote. but in a harbinger of things to come, he finished second in some catholic neighborhoods in queens. cops wore <u+201c>buckley for mayor<u+201d> buttons. when the election<u+2019>s winner, the very liberal john lindsay, campaigned in those same neighborhoods, young white men waved <u+201c>support your local police<u+201d> placards in his face. the stage was set, in 1966, for the next new york city law-and-order melodrama. lindsay, now mayor, fulfilled a campaign pledge by establishing a civilian complaint review board to protect citizens from abusive cops, the better to restore trust in a police force whose utter rot was the subject that year of a bestselling book about a cop named frank serpico, whose reward for refusing to break the law was an attempt by fellow cops on his life. the president of the patrolmen<u+2019>s benevolent association responded to mayor lindsay<u+2019>s new board: <u+201c>i am sick and tired of giving in to minority groups and their gripes and their shouting.<u+201d> after a brooklyn riot in which cops had been ordered not to use their nightsticks, the pba got 96,888 signatures to put a referendum on the november ballot to dissolve the review board (they only needed 25,000). their tv commercials brayed, trump-like, bronson-like, <u+201c>the addict, the criminal, the hoodlum: only the policeman stands between you and him.<u+201d> buckley<u+2014>who had orated on the campaign trail, <u+201c>we need a much larger police force, enjoined to lust after the apprehension of criminals,<u+201d> unencumbered by <u+201c>any such political irons as civilian review boards<u+201d><u+2014>might only have received 10 percent of the vote. but 12 months later, the anti-ccrb referendum won 63 percent of the popular vote. even jews, who were supposed to be liberal, opposed it 55 percent to 40 percent. two years later, george wallace brought his independent presidential bid to madison square garden. <u+201c>we need somemeanness,<u+201d> wallace brayed. and he got it: police had to rescue black protesters from a mob that surrounded them and chanted, <u+201c>kill <u+2018>em!<u+201d> the new republic observed, <u+201c>never again will you read about berlin in the <u+2019>30s without remembering this wild confrontation of two irrational forces.<u+201d> the confrontation is the key: one of the things that makes new york<u+2019>s conservatism of avenging angels so feral is its proximity to so many damned left-wingers. left-wingers like mayor lindsay<u+2014>who only won reelection in 1969 because the white ethnic backlash vote was split between two candidates, one of whom, mario procaccino, helped popularize the phrase <u+201c>limousine liberal<u+201d> in describing lindsay. in 1971, lindsay elected to build publicly subsidized housing in the queens neighborhood of forest hills, partly upon the presumption that its largely jewish population, only two and half decades on from the holocaust, would be relatively free from racism of the fred trump sort. apparently hizzoner wasn<u+2019>t paying attention to the growing following behind rabbi meir kahane, the domestic terrorist who was another of new york city<u+2019>s sui generis contributions to the history of the american right. village voice columnist jack newfield reported from one of the mayor<u+2019>s damage-control sessions at the forest hills jewish community center, where jews called <u+201c>lindsay redneck names under the shadow of the torah.<u+201d> the voice<u+2019>s paul cowan heard a picketer boast, <u+201c>if lindsay ever gets to be president, i<u+2019>ll kill him. i<u+2019>ll do just what oswald did to john kennedy.<u+201d> his companion replied, <u+201c>you won<u+2019>t get the chance. lindsay is going to get shot right here in new york.<u+201d> donald trump, 25 years old, was just then beginning his apprenticeship in his father<u+2019>s real estate organization. he made the acquaintance of roy cohn, who represented the family against the federal racial bias lawsuit, devising the defense that fred trump had no intention of excluding black tenants, just welfare recipients. trump became a student of the legendarily reptilian thug who came to prominence as joseph mccarthy<u+2019>s lawyer. long-time trump-watcher michael d<u+2019>antonio has explained: <u+201c>both were members of le club, a private hot spot where the rich and famous and social climbers could meet without suffering the presence of ordinary people.<u+201d> writes d<u+2019>antonio, <u+201c>cohn modeled a style for trump that was one part friendly gossip and one part menace. . . . trump kept a photo of the glowering cohn so he could show it to those who might be chilled by the idea that this man was his lawyer.<u+201d> it was cohn, indeed, who introduced trump to the nearly-as-reptilian roger stone, the professional dirty trickster and sexual adventurer with the giant tattoo of richard nixon on his back<u+2014>and who, even though trump has called him a <u+201c>stone-cold loser,<u+201d> has managed to hang on to a position of influence in the trump presidential campaign. he certainly maintains an influence on donald trump<u+2019>s view of the world. <u+201c>when somebody screws you,<u+201d> stone told a reporter, <u+201c>screw <u+2019>em back<u+2014>but a lot harder.<u+201d> figures like cohn and stone represent another branch in the new york conservative tradition: flashy, hedonistic right-wing operatives who gargle with razor blades and wear their shiny silver three-piece suits like armor. next comes an avenging angel named ed koch. a former liberal, koch won his underdog mayoral victory in 1977 in a madcap electoral free-for-all whose tenor was set on the night of july 13, when a series of lightning strikes shut down transmissions lines, the city shuddered to black, and so much crime ensued that buses filled with men in chains shuttled from jailhouse to jailhouse in search of available cells. neoconservative midge decter wrote in commentary that it was like <u+201c>having been given a sudden glimpse into the foundations of one<u+2019>s house and seen, with horror, that it was utterly infested and rotting away.<u+201d> the supposedly liberal readership of the new york times wrote letters to the editor like this one: <u+201c>the puerto ricans can go back to puerto rico. they belong there anyway, and if the blacks do not shape up they can go to the south.<u+201d> ed koch was virtually unknown outside his greenwich village neighborhood, but with a pledge to restore the death penalty, his campaign took off like a rocket. never mind that the new york mayor had no power over capital punishment. the people had spoken: a mere 25 percent opposed bringing back what new york daily news called <u+201c>little hot squat.<u+201d> meanwhile koch berated the <u+201c>poverty pimps<u+201d> and <u+201c>povertitians<u+201d> holding a broke city hostage, demanded the abolition of the board of education (a <u+201c>lard barrel of waste<u+201d>), denounced alleged welfare fraud, decried <u+201c>the nuts on the left who dump on middle class values.<u+201d> he promised, too, to unwind new york<u+2019>s experiments with free college, generous welfare, and subsidized housing, which its cheerleaders on the left called <u+201c>socialism in one city.<u+201d> one of those cheerleaders was the one-time front-runner in the race, the very liberal congresswoman bella abzug. after the blackout riots, her campaign went into a tailspin; she didn<u+2019>t even make it into the runoff. an underdog did instead: the young mario cuomo. he said, <u+201c>the death penalty cannot provide jobs for the poor. the electric chair cannot balance the budget. the electric chair cannot educate our children. the electric chair cannot give us a sound economy or save us from bankruptcy or even save my seventy-seven-year-old mother.<u+201d> and besides, he would add, america was better than that. or was it? <u+00a0>one time when he tried to make that same point, an old lady in brooklyn spat in his face. another time, someone stood up and cried, <u+201c>kill them!<u+201d> koch won, of course, and then served as new york<u+2019>s mayor for the next dozen years. although to outer-borough reactionaries like state senator chris mega of brooklyn, he was just another liberal sellout on gun control. at a december 1984 press conference, mega demanded to know: <u+201c>when will mayor koch provide the same level of protection to the citizens who ride the subways and pay their taxes that he enjoys surrounded by a phalanx of new york<u+2019>s finest, guns at the ready?<u+201d> that particular press conference was called by the national rifle association in support of bernhard goetz, an electronics salesman from kew gardens, queens, who shot five young men on a graffiti-encrusted subway car who, depending on whom you believed, were either preparing to mug him or aggressively panhandling for $5. like the character played by charles bronson, goetz made the cover of time magazine. celebratory bumper stickers bloomed: <u+201c>ride with bernie<u+2014>he goetz them.<u+201d> in a later interview he reflected, travis bickle-like, <u+201c>the guys i shot represented the failure of society. . . . forget about their ever making a positive contribution to society. it<u+2019>s only a question of how much a price they<u+2019>re going to cost. the solution is their mothers should have had an abortion.<u+201d> one of goetz<u+2019>s biggest backers was bob grant, who beginning on wmca in 1970, and then on wor (until he was fired in 1979 for saying the only reason a black woman got her job was that <u+201c>she passed the gynecological and pigmentation test<u+201d>), virtually invented right-wing talk radio<u+2014>and when you think about it, it hardly could have been invented anywhere else but new york. grant won the first live radio interview with goetz, in 1986, lamenting that he had not <u+201c>finished the job by killing them all.<u+201d> three years later, after the assault in central park, donald trump offered his memorable argument to bring back little hot squat.<u+00a0><u+201c>what has happened is the complete breakdown of life as we know it. . . . how can our great society tolerate the continued brutalization of its citizens by crazed misfits? criminals must be told that their civil liberties end when an attack on our safety begins.<u+201d> in 2011, bob grant, impressed with donald trump<u+2019>s campaign to force president obama to produce his birth certificate,<u+00a0>announced he had found his presidential candidate for 2012. grant died in 2014, but two years later, his brand of vigilante conservatism has gone fully national. the wall fred trump sought to build in queens in the early 1970s has been relocated 2,000 miles south. on tuesday, donald trump will win a landslide in his home state. and somewhere, bob grant will be smiling. this story first appeared on the washington spectator

donald trump<u+2019>s avenging angels: how the orange-haired monster has rewritten the history of american conservatism

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a verdict in 2017 could have sweeping consequences for tech startups.

planned parenthood does damage control as gop demands answers

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in a recent<u+00a0> column <u+00a0>by dana milbank,<u+00a0>the<u+00a0>washington post<u+00a0>columnist addresses what has become the ultimate straw man for republican presidential candidates this year. ever since donald trump dodged megyn kelly<u+2019>s question on his derogatory comments about women at the first debate with his declaration that <u+201c>the big problem this country has is being politically correct,<u+201d> political correctness has been the go-to boogeyman for the entire field of gop candidates. whenever challenged on controversial or offensive comments, political correctness is to blame. whenever the media fact-checks a statement, political correctness and that other boogeyman, <u+201c>liberal media bias,<u+201d> is to blame <u+2014> and not their factually challenged statements. <u+201c>once a pejorative term applied to liberals<u+2019> determination not to offend any ethnic or other identity group, it now is used lazily by some conservatives to label everything classified under <u+201c>that with which i disagree.<u+201d> gop candidates are now using the <u+201c>politically correct<u+201d> label to shut down debate <u+2014> exactly what conservatives complained politically correct liberals were doing in the first place.<u+201d> when an entire field of candidates tend to<u+00a0>thrive on bullshit<u+00a0>(especially the current front-runners),<u+00a0>it is not at all surprising that they have certain reliable terms that vilify critics of their bullshit and shut down debate. the truth is, republicans have long utilized a manipulative phraseology, full of euphemisms and doublespeak, used either to shut down criticism and debate, as shown above, or to acerbate the listener<u+2019>s emotional state <u+2014> think <u+201c>baby parts<u+201d> and <u+201c>death panels<u+201d> <u+2014> or provide a positive light on something that is generally frowned upon. (ergo: tax-avoiding billionaires become <u+201c>job-creators.<u+201d>) the gop has become truly masterful at distorting political discussion through language, and at each republican debate, just about every candidate showcases this manipulation. in george orwell<u+2019>s classic essay on this subject, <u+201c>politics and the english language,<u+201d> he seems to describe modern republicans to a tee, repeating the same tired, yet convenient phrases (the phrases have changed, of course). orwell writes: <u+201c>when one watches some tired hack on the platform mechanically repeating the familiar phrases <u+2014> bestial, atrocities, iron heel, bloodstained tyranny, free peoples of the world, stand shoulder to shoulder <u+2014> one often has the curious feeling that one is not watching a live human being but some kind of dummy: a feeling which suddenly becomes stronger at moments when the light catches the speaker<u+2019>s spectacles and turns them into blank discs which seem to have no eyes behind them. and this is not altogether fanciful. a speaker who uses that kind of phraseology has gone some distance towards turning himself into a machine.<u+201d> in a country where getting elected to public office requires massive amounts of private funding (<u+201c>bribery<u+201d> has become <u+201c>donation<u+201d>), is it really so shocking that the majority of politicians resemble machines? republicans (and many democrats) have become appendages of the corporate state apparatus, serving the interests of private industry before even considering the interests of the people. of course, the united states is still technically a <u+201c>democratic republic,<u+201d> and politicians must at the very least put on a show and act like they serve the people. creating a new lingo used to purposely deceive the people, full of enough euphemisms and phrases to fill up a dictionary, has been quite beneficial. just to name a few of the most popular: <u+201c>energy exploration<u+201d> for oil drilling, <u+201c>job-creators<u+201d> for capitalists, <u+201c>right to work<u+201d> for anti-union laws, <u+201c>trickle down economics<u+201d> for tax cuts for the rich, <u+201c>death tax<u+201d> for an estate tax, <u+201c>job-killing<u+201d> for tax increases on the rich or corporations (or cracking down on corporate tax avoidance, for that matter), and so on. the republican party has become the orwellian party, and fox news<u+2019><u+00a0>frank luntz<u+00a0>is perhaps the most notorious gop spin-doctor. <u+201c>[politicians] are living, breathing embodiments of the language they use,<u+201d> said luntz during an<u+00a0>npr interview.<u+00a0><u+201c>when you<u+2019>re selling a product or service it doesn<u+2019>t have to be absolutely perfect. when you<u+2019>re a politician, one wrong word changes the <u+2026> meaning of something.<u+201d> when it comes down to it,<u+00a0>donald trump (who<u+00a0>called<u+00a0>luntz a <u+201c>low class slob<u+201d> for supposedly picking <u+201c>anti-trump panels<u+201d> after the infamous fox news debate) has done us all a favor for being so blatantly dishonest. it is actually refreshing to see a republican politician distort the truth without the usual duplicity. trump<u+00a0>is a complete bullshit artist, but not in the usual mechanical way that we typically see from other politicians. indeed, this is one of the qualities that has made him so popular (and unpopular), and his dishonesty has been contagious. other gop candidates have quickly jumped on the bullshit bandwagon,<u+00a0>and<u+00a0>as politifact rulings reveal, the more dishonest the gop candidate is, the more successful he or she becomes. it was only a matter of time until the lies and distortions caught up with<u+00a0>republicans. the party has built its modern platform on deception, and has carefully crafted an entire phraseology to back it up. but there is no amount of spin that can make trump look honest. and trump is, after all, the new face<u+00a0>of the gop.

the gop has become the party from george orwell<u+2019>s nightmares

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third morning in a row marco rubio has been on the cover of israel hayom. he seems to be winning the adelson primary. http://t.co/kwxkrpprah

marco rubio strong favorite in sheldon adelson primary

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conservation has long been about protecting communities of plants and animals where they are. but climate change is leading to a nascent form of conservation that embraces change and seeks to provide a thriving stage on which it can happen. gobble mountain in the berkshires of western massachusetts is distinct in that its soil and bedrock are volcanic in origin, as opposed to the limestone formations elsewhere in the berkshires. that distinction has led the nature conservancy to protect it. it's a late-july morning, and andy finton works his way up a trail in western massachusetts' berkshire hills, walking beneath a canopy of sugar maple, ash, beech, and basswood. at one point, mr. finton pauses and announces with a chuckle: <u+201c>congratulations! you<u+2019>re on a steep slope.<u+201d> finton, who works for the nature conservancy, was pointing out something more profound than his announcement might suggest. a steep slope is a crucial element of an emerging vision to help plants and animals survive and adapt to a warming world while maintaining high levels of biological diversity. conservation efforts typically have focused on maintaining a pristine forest or wetland, or preserving specific species or communities of species where they are. yet a growing body of research shows that when you scratch the surface of a biodiverse region, you'll generally find diverse soil types, elevation ranges, bedrock types, and features such as canyons, cliffs, ravines, and finton<u+2019>s steep slopes. the new approach focuses on conserving landforms in a region that incorporate these diverse geophysical traits <u+2013> which act as stages on which biological diversity thrives. and it focuses on setting up corridors between the <u+201c>stages<u+201d> to allow for species migration. as the scientific evidence of global warming has mounted, conservation often has focused on finding ways to help species or communities of plants track their preferred climate conditions, where possible. for example, a certain tree species might need to move about 30 miles a year higher in latitude to stay within its preferred climate range. by focusing instead on conserving diverse settings, species may be able to find refuges closer to home. the tree species might not have to move 30 miles a year to survive, finton says. <u+201c>it just needs to move around to the north side of the mountain.<u+201d> the approach is just now gaining momentum. the berkshire hills trail winds up a hill at the southern end of one of four areas from west virginia to maine being targeted for <u+201c>nature<u+2019>s stage<u+201d> style conservation by the open space institute. the nature conservancy is using the approach in its land-acquisition decisions and advocacy, and states such as maine, massachusetts, and tennessee are beginning to embrace the idea. adoption is slow, acknowledges peter howell of the open space institute in new york. but <u+201c>you<u+2019>re starting to see an uptick<u+201d> as scientific information is making its way to conservation groups and the foundations that help fund them, he says. [editor's note: the original version misstated mr. howell's name.] the concept initially appeared in conservation circles in 1988. at that point, ecologists were already moving from efforts to save individual species to efforts to preserve the broader communities in which species lived. a trio of scientists from the university of maine and brown university suggested that, given climate change, physical environments <u+2013> not plant communities <u+2013> provided the best basis for identifying land to conserve. they noted that the plant communities that emerged since the last ice age still haven't stabilized; change is the norm and this would become even more pronounced amid an era of global warming. instead, the team argued, the focus should be on conserving physical settings and corridors connecting them. that approach will embrace the communities you're interested in conserving. the approach recognizes that changes to climate alone don't determine where plants, insects, and ultimately animals will migrate, if they can. soil types, topography, underlying bedrock types, and latitude exert the most significant influence on a landscape's potential to host a rich mix of species. in western massachusetts, the journey up the steep slope reveals the relationship between biological diversity and landforms. the basswood and ash trees, for example, prefer the accumulated soils and nutrients found at the hill's base. higher up slope, these and other trees give way to mountain maple and oak, which eventually yield to pitch pine. the pitch pine can survive in the shallow, dry soils at the summit. later in the day, along a dirt road that tracks sanderson brook, finton points to patches of stinging nettle and explains that the plant is found in flood plains, but not on the hill's slopes. climate still plays an important role on a range of scales <u+2013> from the regional down to individual mountainsides. diverse settings can set up their own microclimates, which can provide refuges for plants threatened by regional climate change. the new approach offers hope for helping existing species cope with climate change, up to a point. if climate change is too severe, no strategy is going to work, says mark anderson, science director for the nature conservancy's eastern region. but how do you determine which physical settings you want to preserve? in 2010, two different research groups came to similar answers and published their conclusions within 45 days of each other. "it was uncanny," says paul beier, a forest ecologist at northern arizona university. his team gauged what it called geodiversity by an area<u+2019>s underlying bedrock, topography, and specific landforms. meanwhile, dr. anderson used satellite data to map different landscape types across the us northeast and eastern canada to see which factors best corresponded with biological diversity. his team found, for example, that range of elevations across a landscape and high limestone levels in the bedrock were among the four best predictors of high biodiversity.<u+00a0> and all four factors were geophysical. for its part, the open space institute is using these principles <u+2013> and a $12 million grant from the doris duke charitable foundation <u+2013> to help build a network of climate-resilient landscapes in four areas in the us northeast and southeast. the institute parcels out the money as grants to local land trusts that want to set aside land and have adopted nature's-stage criteria. they also work with state and local agencies. for all its recent progress, however, the nature's-stage concept carries caveats, notes jacqueline gill, a paleoecologist at the university of maine. for instance, climate change itself can change landforms as more-frequent and more-intense rains accelerate erosion in some regions. moreover, the approach may not be appropriate for keystone species, which still may require species-specific intervention. "the ice-age record tells us that losing large keystone animals like mammoths and giant ground sloths has significant consequences for the rest of the ecosystem, and we're only just beginning to understand those consequences," she says. elephants represent one current example of keystone species that require a custom conservation touch. elephants create a great deal of habitat on which a range of plants and animals relies, dr. gill notes. "it's not a popular idea necessarily, but not all species are created equal" she says. and scientific questions about the approach have yet to be answered. <u+201c>the question we'd really like to answer,<u+201d> says gill, <u+201c>is whether geodiversity has corresponded to biodiversity through time <u+2013> and how landform durability influences biodiversity.<u+201d> a project in the amazon could begin to provide answers. the project aims to test the idea that the rise of the andes mountains some 10 million years ago essentially doubled the diversity of plants in amazonia by, among other effects, providing a narrow slice of unique microhabitats along the range's eastern slopes as it rose. the region hosts some 90,000 plant species, says christopher dick, an evolutionary biologist at the university of michigan and one of the project's co-investigators. of those, 45,000 appeared with the uplift of the andes. the rest appear in the amazon basin, which by some estimates is between 50 million and 100 million years old. the basin is something of a museum for large numbers of very old species, dr. dick says. the slopes of the andes are where more-recent evolutionary action has occurred <u+00ad><u+2013> driven, the team posits, by changes in the geophysical setting. back in the berkshires, finton sums up the goals behind conserving nature's stage: <u+201c>we're trying to prevent extinction in the face of climate change.<u+201d>

how climate change is spawning a new view of conservation

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could this be the populist moment? a seemingly unstoppable coalition of the powerful assembled to advance the trans pacific partnership trade bill: a democratic president aligned with the republican majority in both chambers of congress and the full lobbying might of corporate america. but on tuesday afternoon, the senate democratic minority delivered a surprise defeat to president obama and a severe setback to one of the last few items on his presidential agenda. they blocked consideration of <u+201c>fast track<u+201d> trade authority <u+2013> a crucial vehicle to get the pacific trade pact through congress. the victors: the ascendant populist wing of the democratic party, and its spiritual leader, sen. elizabeth warren of massachusetts. <u+201c>over and over, america<u+2019>s workers have taken the brunt of bad trade deals,<u+201d> the former harvard professor and scourge of big business told a gathering of the roosevelt institute, a liberal think tank, hours before tuesday<u+2019>s vote. <u+201c>we can<u+2019>t keep pushing through trade deals that benefit multinational companies at the expense of workers,<u+201d> she added, with theatrical urgency. <u+201c>government cannot continue to be the captive of the rich and powerful. working people cannot be forced to give up more and more as they get squeezed harder and harder.<u+201d> warren masterfully undermined the trade bill, by highlighting the administration<u+2019>s obsessive secrecy (the details of the proposed agreement are classified) and the role of corporate interests in drafting the deal (500 non-government advisors participated, she said, 85 percent of them industry executives or lobbyists). <u+201c>and now this trade deal is getting the full court lobbying press from those same giant multinational corporations,<u+201d> she said. <u+201c>the middle class is on the ropes and now is the time to fight back.<u+201d> under intense pressure from the warren wing, 44 of the 45 democrats present tuesday afternoon defied obama. even sen. ron wyden (d-ore.), the chief democratic advocate for the fast-track bill, buckled. proponents fell eight votes short of the 60 they needed to take up the fast-track bill. senate free-traders will likely find a way to revive the bill, but tuesday<u+2019>s defeat will embolden opponents in the house, where the free-trade package already faced trouble. however the trade debate is resolved, tuesday<u+2019>s defeat in the senate is likely to be a turning point, because it shows that the populists are now firmly in control of the democratic party. anger over growing inequality has reached critical mass, and a backlash has begun against a political system that has, over the last three decades, allowed 100 percent of all income growth to go to the wealthiest 10 percent. the trade deal has for now become the victim of that anger <u+2013> less because of the details of the tpp than because it hasn<u+2019>t been accompanied by more protections and assistance for american workers. <u+201c>i believe in this,<u+201d> obama said of the trade deal, <u+201c>the same way<u+2026> that i believe in a higher minimum wage. the same way that i believe in stronger protections for workers who are trying to get a voice in their company. the same way i believe in equal pay. the same way i believe in paid sick leave.<u+201d> but obama<u+2019>s actions haven<u+2019>t matched his words, and he didn<u+2019>t require republicans to accept any of those priorities before he joined them in pushing for free-trade legislation. senate republicans drove more democrats into opposition when they declined requests to bring up other trade-related bills other than legislation offering a meager (and reduced) amount of training funds for workers who lose their jobs. at the white house, press secretary josh earnest called tuesday<u+2019>s vote a <u+201c>procedural snafu.<u+201d> but obama was undone by more than procedure. his would-be successor, hillary clinton, was not courageous enough to take a position on the trade legislation, but her silence gave democrats more freedom to oppose it. and democrats in congress bristled at obama<u+2019>s disparagement of opponents of the trade bill as emotional, illogical and dishonest. <u+201c>the president is making some fairly nasty remarks about people on the other side, that they don<u+2019>t understand we<u+2019>re in the 21st century,<u+201d> joseph stiglitz, a nobel laureate in economics, said at the roosevelt institute gathering, at the national press club. <u+201c>actually we do. i don<u+2019>t think he understands.<u+201d> warren, at the same event, took a shot at those democrats who have <u+201c>floated along with the idea that economic growth is in direct opposition to strengthening the wellbeing of america<u+2019>s working families<u+2026> that claim is flatly wrong.<u+201d> tuesday<u+2019>s 44-to-1 vote against obama<u+2019>s position confirms that warren<u+2019>s populists now dominate the democratic party <u+2013> and if obama wants to retain a semblance of relevance, he<u+2019>ll join them. read more from dana milbank<u+2019>s archive, follow him on twitter or subscribe to his updates on facebook.

democrats hand obama a stinging defeat on trade deal

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republican presidential candidate carly fiorina said sunday she could see how competitor<u+00a0>donald trump's immigration rhetoric, which has gotten him in some hot water over the past few weeks, resonates with some voters. asked on abc's this week<u+00a0>whether<u+00a0>she would support him if he became<u+00a0>the nominee, the former hewlett-packard ceo<u+00a0>said, <u+201c>i have been in new hampshire now for six days, and i have not been asked a single question about donald trump.<u+201d> last week in the first-in-the-nation primary state, she said trump didn't represent her or her party. on the other hand, she said on abc, <u+201c>i think donald trump taps into an anger that i hear every day.<u+00a0>people are angry that a commonsense thing like securing the border or ending sanctuary cities is somehow considered extreme. it's not extreme, it's common sense. we need to secure the border.<u+201d> while decrying illegal immigration in his campaign announcement speech on june 16, trump called the mexican immigrants entering the the u.s.<u+00a0>criminals and <u+201c>rapists.<u+201d> the remark<u+00a0>has caused business partners and fellow republicans (though not all)<u+00a0>to cut ties with or denounce the real estate mogul and reality tv star.

carly fiorina says donald trump 'taps into an anger'

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a state of the union address is often difficult to fact-check, no matter who is president. the speech is a product of many hands and is carefully vetted, so major errors of fact are relatively rare. but state of the union addresses often are very political speeches, an argument for the president<u+2019>s policies, so context is sometimes missing. here is a guide through some of president obama<u+2019>s most interesting<u+00a0>claims, in the order in which he made them. we also checked one claim in the gop response. as is our practice with live events, we do not award pinocchio rankings, which are reserved for complete columns. while president obama often has touted what he often calls the<u+00a0><u+201c>longest streak of private-sector job creation in history,<u+201d> the average number of jobs created in this 70-month period is significantly lower than under either bill clinton or ronald reagan. (when you exclude a single month of decline, in fact, clinton and reagan had streaks of 85 and 71 months, respectively.) the low point in jobs was reached in february 2010, and there has indeed been a gain of 13.6 million nonfarm jobs since then, according to bureau of labor statistics data. but it<u+2019>s worth remembering that in the same period, the number of federal, state and local government jobs has actually declined by nearly 500,000. the unemployment rate was 7.8 percent when obama took office in 2009, and now it is 5 percent. the president says it was cut in half by measuring from<u+00a0>the high point reached during his presidency: 10 percent in october 2009. still, even with the massive jobs losses at the start of his presidency, obama can claim that nearly 9.3 million jobs were added since he took office. at this point in george w. bush<u+2019>s presidency, the comparable number was 1.3 million; and for bill clinton and ronald reagan, the figure was 21.2 million and 12.7 million, respectively. the low point for manufacturing jobs was reached in february 2010, and there has been a gain of 878,000 jobs since then. but bureau of labor statistics data show that the number of manufacturing jobs is still 230,000 fewer than when obama took office in the depths of the recession <u+2014> and 1.4 million fewer than when the recession began in december 2007. indeed, the united states only gained 30,000 manufacturing jobs in all of 2015. here<u+2019>s a graph that shows the trend over the last 10 years: the improvement in the economy, coupled with the spending cuts in the sequester, has yielded a significantly lower deficit than just a few years ago. the deficit for the fiscal year that ended sept. 30 was $439 billion. for economists, raw numbers mean less than the percentage of the gross domestic product, and here, too, there has been an improvement. as a percentage of the gdp, the deficit in fiscal year 2015 was 2.5 percent, the lowest level since 2007. for fiscal year 2009, when obama took office, the deficit was 9.8 percent of gdp, so that<u+2019>s a 75 percent reduction. the president used to say <u+201c>roughly 10 nations<u+201d> when making this comparison, but cuts in u.s. defense spending and increases in estimates of chinese spending appear to have shifted the calculation. the mostly widely cited public source for this claim is the<u+00a0>stockholm international peace research institute, which tallies public numbers each year. sipri<u+00a0>urges caution in how its data is used, saying that <u+201c>attempts to draw conclusions about a country<u+2019>s level of military capability from its level of military expenditure should be regarded with considerable skepticism.<u+201d> that<u+2019>s because raw numbers can be misleading. the official chinese figures are believed to be understated <u+2014> and it costs china less money to buy the same goods and services as the united states.<u+00a0>a rough calculation of purchasing power parity suggests the correct figure for chinese defense spending could be double official estimates. the comparison to china also does not include the fact that because it is not a global power, beijing may actually spend more on its military in the western pacific than does the united states. moreover, the united states ranks ninth when military spending is measured as a percentage of the gross domestic product, according to the cia factbook. percentage of gdp is a good indicator of how a country chooses to use its resources <u+2014> the top ranks of the list are dominated by oil-rich middle eastern countries and israel <u+2014> but the statistic does not shed much light on the effectiveness of a country<u+2019>s military. so there are also limitations in that comparison. in lauding his achievements in energy, the president made a reference to the dramatic decline in gasoline prices. but the white house graphics that accompanied his speech in its posting on medium included a sentence<u+00a0>that made<u+00a0>a claim based on much higher gas prices. the graphic claimed that <u+201c>americans will save nearly $8,000 at the pump in 2025 thanks to doubling the fuel efficiency of our cars and light trucks.<u+201d> but there are two big caveats to that figure, which comes from official government estimates of the savings over the lifetime of a car between 2012 and 2025. first, gasoline was presumed to cost about $3.42 before taxes, so obviously any<u+00a0>savings from fuel efficiency would be significantly reduced if gasoline stays at current $2-a-gallon levels. second, the cost of the rules was estimated to amount to $3,000, thus reducing the savings to car owners to $5,000 even before the impact of lower fuel prices is considered. according to the solar foundation, an independent energy research nonprofit,<u+00a0>the median wage for solar designers is about $27 per hour, and solar installers earn a median wage of $21 per hour. (solar installers<u+2019> hourly median wage was $19.24, according to the bureau of labor statistics<u+2019> most recent, may 2014 figures.)<u+00a0>workers<u+00a0>in solar assembly earn $18 per hour. these figures are, indeed,<u+00a0>higher than the median hourly wage for all occupations as of the most recent figures in may 2014, at $17.09.<u+00a0>(however, the median hourly wage for employees in the mining industry<u+00a0><u+2014> including coal mining<u+00a0><u+2014> is also higher than the median hourly wage for all jobs<u+00a0><u+2014> at $48.54.) the group<u+00a0>reported<u+00a0>in its 2015 census that the solar workforce is larger than the coal industry and other fossil fuel generation sectors. it used bureau of labor statistics figures to compare coal industry employees to solar industry employees, as measured through its survey of more than 7,600 u.s. businesses. as of october 2015, the coal mining industry had 65,000 jobs. per the solar foundation<u+2019>s 2015 figures, there were 119,931 people employed in solar installation. obama<u+2019>s<u+00a0>statement comes from the department of energy<u+2019>s website, which cites the solar foundation<u+2019>s wage figures. but the source is unclear for<u+00a0>the claim that solar is saving <u+201c>tens of millions of dollars a year<u+201d> on energy bills for arizona and new york residents.<u+00a0>solar power is, indeed, growing rapidly in new york and arizona. while the<u+00a0>department of energy appears to attribute the savings figures to the solar foundation, the claim that solar customers are saving $13 million in arizona and $11 million in new york every year is not in the nonprofit<u+2019>s most recent annual report. it<u+2019>s worth noting that in arizona, there is an ongoing controversy over whether residents truly are getting lower rates on solar energy. energy regulators in the state<u+00a0>are battling utility companies over net metering, which is the process through which solar customers get a credit for a certain amount of electricity that they send back to the grid. regulators are<u+00a0>working on a compromise deal<u+00a0>that could result in a cost-shift for non-solar customers. texas and iowa lead the nation in wind power, and the cost of wind power surely is lower in those states than in others. but this claim overlooks the impact of the federal tax credit that has driven much of the cost of wind power down. the average price of coal and natural gas power ($65 per megawatt-hour) is still cheaper than newer sources of energy like wind ($80) and solar ($107), according to the dallas morning news. in particular, the production tax credit is a crucial subsidy that allows wind energy to compete with energy from fossil fuels. this tax credit is the driving force behind negative wind power pricing in texas, according to a 2015 report by the institute of political economy at utah state university and public policy research organization strata. texas also provides many state-level financial incentives for wind power generation. [update: supporters of wind power energy noted<u+00a0>this report is backed by wind power critics, and<u+00a0>said it<u+2019>s<u+00a0>unfair to criticize the tax credits because fossil fuels have received many more government incentives than renewables over a longer period of time. they pointed<u+00a0>to<u+00a0>other sources showing<u+00a0>wind<u+2019>s costs to be lower than for other electricity sources.] the department of energy estimates that within a decade, wind power will become cost-competitive with fossil fuels without a federal tax incentive.<u+00a0>the white house noted that solar and wind energy<u+00a0>prices are now becoming competitive with energy from conventional fuel sources. actually, federal government employment has dropped during the obama administration; at one point in 2014 federal employment reached the lowest level since 1966. there has been a slight uptick since then, but even so, as a percentage of total employment, the federal government now has the smallest share since world war ii. here<u+2019>s a graph that shows total federal employment since 1939. the spikes every 10 years reflect temporary hiring for the u.s. census.

fact checking the 2016 state of the union address

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martin o<u+2019>malley<u+2019>s presidential campaign-in-waiting has sought to maintain some suspense about a <u+201c>special announcement<u+201d> he has planned for may 30<u+00a0>in baltimore. an email sent out thursday by o<u+2019>malley<u+2019>s team asked <u+201c>is he in or is he out? will he run or won<u+2019>t he?,<u+201d> and promised people who put their names on an e-mail list that they could be the first to know -- <u+201c>before the media, the politicians and the washington establishment.<u+201d> not to burst anyone<u+2019>s bubble, but the answer is already pretty clear. here are 10 signs that o'malley is running: 1) during one of a series of conference calls<u+00a0>thursday night, o<u+2019>malley directed former staffers to a web site -- www.omalleyannouncement.com<u+00a0>-- where people can sign up to attend his may 30 announcement in baltimore. a line at the bottom of the page says the site is "paid for by o<u+2019>malley for president.<u+201d> 2) o<u+2019>malley aides put out word that he has leased 7,200 square feet of office space -- the right size to lunch an insurgent campaign -- in baltimore near penn station, the city<u+2019>s rail hub. promoting a baltimore sun story about the move on twitter, o<u+2019>malley communications maven lis smith, currently a new york resident, wrote, <u+201c>baltimore, here we come.<u+201d> 3) several aides now employed by o<u+2019>malley<u+2019>s political action committee have been looking for places to live in baltimore. 4) in another conference call thursday night, o<u+2019>malley aides outlined plans to begin fundraising for a federal committee, i.e. one that could be used to pay for a presidential bid. o'malley has been using a political action committee to fund his activities, which will no longer be legal once he is officially a candidate. 5) during the call, aides advertised a working lunch on may 21 where supporters can help o<u+2019>malley dial for dollars. they emphasized the need to make a good financial showing before<u+00a0>a june 30 reporting deadline. 6) supporters on the conference call were told of two key members of o<u+2019>malley<u+2019>s financial team: terry lierman, a former maryland democratic party chairman, as treasurer; and martin knott, a baltimore-area businessman, as finance chairman. 7) o<u+2019>malley has further expanded his press staff in recent days. a tweet sent out by smith earlier this week announcing the latest two hires -- both females -- referred to o<u+2019>malley<u+2019>s <u+201c>#ladyboss press team.<u+201d> 8) last week, o<u+2019>malley<u+2019>s pac announced the addition of its latest high-profile member:<u+00a0>national political director karine jean-pierre. 9) o<u+2019>malley, joined by jean-pierre and other aides, made a daylong swing wednesday through new hampshire, the nation<u+2019>s first presidential primary state. 10) o<u+2019>malley's entourage that day included media consultant jimmy siegel and a camera crew. siegel, who worked for hillary rodham clinton during the 2008 presidential cycle, specializes in campaign-style videos. of course, there's always the possibility that all of this could be for naught. as longtime o<u+2019>malley watchers may recall, in 2002, when he was mayor of<u+00a0>baltimore,<u+00a0>o<u+2019>malley held a press conference to announce<u+00a0>he would not run for governor that year, avoiding a primary fight<u+00a0>with well-known democrat kathleen kennedy townsend. as one longtime o<u+2019>malley associate put it thursday, however, <u+201c>there<u+2019>s a different vibe this time.<u+201d> look for an email from o<u+2019>malley for confirmation.

<u+2018>paid for by o<u+2019>malley for president<u+2019> <u+2014> and 9 other signs o<u+2019>malley is in

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sherrod brown looks in some ways like a very tempting vice presidential pick for<u+00a0>hillary clinton. he doesn't have an enormous national profile, but inside the beltway he's known as a stalwart of the liberal wing of the party's congressional caucus. unlike<u+00a0>bernie sanders, he's a loyal party man. but he has a similar disheveled populist anti-fashion to go along with an extensive track record of support for labor unions and skepticism of the forces of globalization. and as a white dude from ohio, he's ideally suited in demographic terms to help clinton stem her losses of working-class whites in the midwest <u+2014> a key area of weakness vis-<u+00e0>-vis<u+00a0>donald trump. but there's a huge problem. ohio has a republican governor, so creating a vacancy would cost democrats a senate seat. elizabeth warren has the same problem. so does tammy baldwin. and cory booker. and debbie stabenow. fear of losing a senate seat with a vp pick isn't unique to the 2016 election, of course. but with<u+00a0>polarization in congress steadily rising, it's an increasingly important consideration <u+2014> particularly in a year when democrats are hoping to retake a senate. and clinton's problem is that democrats right now are doing terribly in terms of winning state and local elections. the southwestern swing states of nevada and new mexico are in republican hands. so are iowa and ohio, the midwestern swingers. so is florida. but so are a bunch of blue states, ranging from michigan and pennsylvania to comically safe states like maryland, massachusetts, illinois, and new jersey. this severely constrains the roster of senators she can responsibly select, while also directly denuding the party of governors who could fill the job. trump, by contrast, has a smorgasbord of plausible options with conventional political r<u+00e9>sum<u+00e9>s. he could pick a moderate latino like nevada gov. brian sandoval* or a more conventionally conservative one like marco rubio. he could pick an old-school hard-right southern senator like jeff sessions, or a young african-american hard-right senator like tim scott, or a swing state governor like rick scott, or a deeply conservative governor of a blue-leaning state like scott walker. or he could avoid men named scott altogether! clinton's very short shortlist likely won't make a huge difference in november. much was made over the course of 2015 of the republican party's deep bench in the presidential field, and the gop ended up with trump. vp picks do matter. it's very common for a<u+00a0>vice president to go on to become president or at least his party's nominee. the generally dismal standing of the overall party during obama-era midterms cut short the careers of many seemingly talented politicians. clinton's limited range of choices and inevitable need to mix substantive and political considerations in making her choice reduces the chances that a truly excellent figure will be available. landslide gop wins in 2010 and 2014 have consequences that not only continue through today but will keep ricocheting forward into future cycles. * correction: the governor of nevada is brian sandoval. richard sandoval is the chef behind<u+00a0>el centro d.f. and other restaurants.

the real reason hillary clinton's vp shortlist is so short

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washington (cnn) the faction of the gop that is unhappy with donald trump as the party's presumptive nominee has one last plan to stop the mogul: staging an all-out delegate revolt at the republican national convention. the far-fetched idea is the latest reflection of a campaign cycle that has been anything but ordinary, and stems from a continuing dissatisfaction among some conservative stalwarts with how trump is behaving and running his campaign. but two longtime gop veterans says they wouldn't bet on the effort working. the effort comes at a rough time for the gop. as the democratic party's heaviest hitters, including president barack obama, vice president joe biden and massachusetts sen. elizabeth warren, line up behind hillary clinton and against trump, republicans have been forced to criticize their own nominee. recent comments from trump about a federal judge's mexican heritage have drawn widespread rebuke and put gop leaders in a corner as they defend their endorsement of trump while disavowing his comments. one of the vocal advocates for a delegate revolt is conservative commentator and weekly standard editor bill kristol, who has also been actively seeking a candidate to mount an independent bid against trump, thus far to no avail. kristol tweeted late thursday that the idea of a "conscience convention," where delegates are free to vote for whomever they want to, is also appealing. "i've been focused on independent candidacy, & still am. but struck by sudden level of interest in possible delegate revolt at convention," kristol tweeted. he added: "a convention of conscience in cleveland would be quite something. made easier by fact trump only won minority of total primary votes anyway." bob vander plaats, the head of the family leader, an influential social conservative group in iowa, told cnn's kate bolduan friday morning that "everything does need to be on the table" at the convention, though he stopped short of calling for a revolt on the convention floor. "we want a principled conservative and disciplined candidate who is the standard-bearer of this party," said vander plaats, who backed texas sen. ted cruz during the primaries. he said trump has time before the convention to "have the concerns laid to rest." "all i'm doing is adapting to the circumstances," kendal unruh told abc. "i certainly believe trump's demagogic racist comments are hurting him." the rules enacted by the previous convention, which govern in 2016 until delegates pass a new set of rules, state that even if a delegate casts a ballot for a candidate other than one they are bound to, the convention secretary will record their bound vote. in order to change that rule, the 112 delegates (two from each state and territory) on the rules committee would have to pass different rules and bring those to the floor of the convention, where a majority of delegates present would have to approve them. rules expert and rnc veteran jim bopp, an indiana delegate who serves as special counsel to the rnc rules committee, said he has spoken with people who want to "keep the option open to manipulate the rules in some way to deny trump the nomination," but he said he wouldn't bet on any changes. "i would put money on no rules changes that would affect the outcome of the nominating process," bopp told cnn. "i think it's highly likely that no rules changes would be adopted that would affect the nomination." bopp said there's also a counter movement within rules insiders to pass a rule that would prevent any other rules changes from going into effect until the close of the convention. rules committee and oregon rnc member solomon yue is behind that effort, and has been pushing the rnc this year to adopt rules that give less power to the party and more to the delegates. he tried but failed to get the party to adopt rules that would require bigger majorities to pass business at the convention. yue says with roughly 80% of the convention delegates being either trump or cruz backers, the anti-trump forces don't have much strength. "the common denominator of the delegates is anti-establishment, anti-washington," yue said. "and if you think about 'never trump' people, they are representing washington and the establishment." part of the philosophy for a delegate revolt comes from longtime rnc veteran curly haugland, from north dakota, and a book he co-wrote with public policy consultant sean parnell. "unbound" uses the history of the rnc to make the case that rnc rules dictate that delegates be allowed to vote their conscience. "what curly and i are contending is that because of rnc rules, there is no such thing as binding," parnell told cnn, saying the binding rules that currently are in place are in a part of the rules package that govern pre-convention during the delegate selection process. but parnell also acknowledged that any effort to make the interpretation stick would require at the very least a handful of state delegations if not a majority of delegates on the floor. "it would be messy. good television though," parnell said. "i would not call it likely. my hope is that delegates are free to vote however they want to vote, and it's going to be up to the chair whether or not to allow that. but i think unless donald trump actually does go shoot somebody on fifth avenue, i don't think this is going to cost him the nomination." neither the trump campaign nor republican national committee immediately responded to a request for comment on the chatter about a delegate revolt. there has been intense focus on the rules committee for months, going back to when there was a possibility of no republican candidate getting enough delegates to clinch the nomination outright. with the prospect of a contested convention, the cruz campaign made a concerted effort to stock the rules committee and state delegations with loyalists who would support rules that would benefit cruz in a bid to win the nomination on multiple ballots. but after cruz lost indiana soundly and suspended his campaign, the prospect of a contested convention vanished and trump rolled to the magic number to clinch the nomination. meanwhile, the cruz campaign urged supporters to continue to become delegates and earn leadership spots to influence the platform at the convention. though some in the party have never warmed to trump, the intensity of finding a way to prevent his formal nomination has grown in recent days after trump's comments about a federal judge inflamed even the leaders of his own party. trump questioned the impartiality of the district court judge overseeing a lawsuit related to his venture trump university, saying the indiana-born judge's mexican ancestry could bias him against trump. the mogul cited his campaign promise to build a wall along the border with mexico in making the comments. though the presumptive nominee has repeatedly stood behind and doubled down on the comments, his stance has drawn outrage from the likes of senate majority leader mitch mcconnell and house speaker paul ryan, who called the remarks "the textbook definition of a racist comment." still, only a small handful of republicans have withdrawn or withheld their endorsements of trump. vulnerable illinois sen. mark kirk disavowed trump this week and said he could not endorse the party's nominee after all, but ryan, mcconnell and others have stood by their endorsements, saying clinton would be a worse choice.

anti-trump forces seek last-ditch delegate revolt

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lawmakers are fuming over claims that capitol police officers left their service weapons in bathrooms and other spots across the capitol complex three times this year. in one instance, a child visiting the capitol reportedly found a loaded glock. "the fact that dangerous weapons were left in the open, potentially within reach of the general public, is unacceptable," said house administration committee chairwoman candice miller, r-mich., and ranking member robert brady, d-pa., in a written statement. fox news is told lawmakers will have a briefing on the incidents next week. for washington's embattled security agencies, it's the latest embarrassing episode. the capitol police and other agencies already are under scrutiny over the incident last month where a man breached restricted airspace and landed a gyrocopter next to the capitol. the incidents involving misplaced firearms were detailed in a report being reviewed by the capitol police board. the newspaper roll call, which first reported the incidents, said one of the guns -- allegedly left by a member of house speaker john boehner's detail in a bathroom in march -- was found by a 7- or 8-year-old child. another was found stuffed in a restroom stall in the capitol visitor's center in january. it was discovered by a capitol worker and belonged to a member of senate majority leader mitch mcconnell's security detail. custodial staff located a third weapon two weeks ago at the capitol police headquarters. these firearms are glocks and do not have conventional "safeties" on them -- they will fire if the trigger is pulled. the concerns come as congressional officials are closely scrutinizing uscp chief kim dine. dine offered to resign recently but is staying aboard for now despite lawmakers questioning his oversight of the force. "we will be looking for a full briefing on these incidents, how they happened, what corrective action has been taken, and how we hopefully do not have similar instances in the future," miller and brady said. their committee oversees security for the house. capitol police spokeswoman lt. kimberly schneider said the department takes security breaches very seriously. however, she declined to comment on the specific incidents. "each disciplinary matter is thoroughly investigated and reviewed, employees are held accountable for their conduct, and they are provided due process in adjudicating these matters," schneider said in an email. "depending on the nature and seriousness of the violation, an employee's record, and other required considerations, an appropriate penalty is applied, up to and including termination of employment." "as a matter of policy," she added, "the department does not routinely discuss internal personnel matters, in order to maintain the integrity of the department." fox news' chad pergram and the associated press contributed to this report.

lawmakers fuming over report capitol police left guns in bathrooms

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facebook is being accused of fiddling with its formulas to suppress conservative news. that<u+2019>s what some unnamed former facebook contractors told the tech site gizmodo<u+2014>and it<u+2019>s an accusation that strikes at the heart of the social network<u+2019>s credibility. facebook relies on computer algorithms to determine what is <u+201c>trending,<u+201d> an influential designation that inevitably boosts traffic for what are deemed the hottest topics. but unbeknownst to much of the public, facebook hires journalists to tweak these formulas, and this is where the question of political bias has erupted. gizmodo reports that facebook <u+201c>routinely suppressed news stories of interest to conservative readers,<u+201d> according to a former journalist who worked on the trending designations. and several former facebook <u+201c>news curators<u+201d> told the website that they were told to <u+201c>inject<u+201d> certain topics into the trending list, even if they weren<u+2019>t popular enough to warrant making the crucial list. depending on who was on duty, said the unnamed conservative ex-curator, citing fear of retribution from the company, <u+201c>things would be blacklisted or trending <u+2026> i<u+2019>d come on shift and i<u+2019>d discover that cpac or mitt romney or glenn beck or popular conservative topics wouldn<u+2019>t be trending because either the curator didn<u+2019>t recognize the news topic or it was like they had a bias against ted cruz.<u+201d> facebook denies any political bias. a spokesperson said in a statement: <u+201c>we take allegations of bias very seriously. facebook is a platform for people and perspectives from across the political spectrum. trending topics shows you the popular topics and hashtags that are being talked about on facebook. there are rigorous guidelines in place for the review team to ensure consistency and neutrality. these guidelines do not permit the suppression of political perspectives.<u+201d> the gizmodo account is based on interviews with a handful of ex-employees who chose to remain anonymous and could be pushing their own views. other former curators told gizmodo they did not consciously make biased judgments on trending topics, and no one is alleging that facebook management ordered such actions. but as facebook has mushroomed into a mighty media force, one that has content-sharing arrangements with major news organizations, mark zuckerberg has always cast his global operation as a neutral platform. if there is a cooking of the digital books that penalizes conservatives, facebook could face a considerable backlash. a former curator gave gizmodo notes he had made of stories that were omitted from trending topics. these included the allegations that former irs official lois lerner improperly scrutinized conservative groups, and stories involving wisconsin gov. scott walker, the drudge report and chris kyle, the former navy seal who was killed three years ago. all this, said the unnamed curator, <u+201c>had a chilling effect on conservative news.<u+201d> the sources also told gizmodo that stories reported by such conservative-leaning news outlets as breitbart, the washington examiner and newsmax, which were trending enough to be picked up by facebook<u+2019>s algorithm, were excluded unless so-called mainstream sites like the new york times, cnn and the bbc followed up on those stories. facebook<u+2019>s political stance has been called into question during the presidential campaign. zuckerberg, the company<u+2019>s founder and ceo, took an obvious shot at donald trump last month, saying: <u+201c>i hear fearful voices calling for building walls and distancing people they label as <u+2018>others.<u+2019> i hear them calling for blocking free expression, for slowing immigration, for reducing trade, and in some cases, even for cutting access to the internet.<u+201d> zuckerberg has also signed a legal brief asking the supreme court to uphold president obama<u+2019>s executive action limiting deportation of illegal immigrants. and in march, as part of a weekly internal poll, some facebook employees asked zuckerberg: <u+201c>what responsibility does facebook have to help prevent president trump in 2017?<u+201d> that prompted a statement from facebook: <u+201c>we as a company are neutral <u+2014> we have not and will not use our products in a way that attempts to influence how people vote.<u+201d> with more than 1 billion users worldwide, facebook wields tremendous influence. the controversy over trending topics could cause some users to question whether the social site is subtly tampering with people<u+2019>s news feeds to promote or minimize certain political stories or viewpoints. howard kurtz is a fox news analyst and the host of "mediabuzz" (sundays 11 a.m. and 5 p.m. et). he is the author of five books and is based in washington. follow him at @howardkurtz. click here for more information on howard kurtz.

former facebook staffers say conservative news is deliberately suppressed

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(cnn) first, dna on a pizza crust led authorities to the man they accuse of killing three members of a prominent washington family and their housekeeper. now investigators say they have a new clue linking suspect darron dellon dennis wint to one of the victims: blood found on a shoe he was wearing when authorities arrested him. forensic analysis matched traces of blood on wint's shoe to at least one of the murder victims, two law enforcement officials said. the officials would not specify which victim's blood was allegedly found on wint's shoe. it's too soon to say what role the evidence could play in the case authorities are building against wint, who has been charged with first-degree murder in the killings last month of savvas, amy and philip savopoulos and housekeeper veralicia figueroa. investigators said last month they don't believe wint acted alone . but so far, no one else has been charged in connection to the killings. police have said they're still investigating, and they haven't detailed exactly what they believe happened in the days leading up to the grisly killings, which came to light when the victims' bodies were discovered after a fire consumed the savopoulos family's $4.5 million mansion last month. investigators soon realized the massive fire wasn't the full story. the victims were bound with duct tape, and they suffered from blunt-force trauma, according to a source familiar with the investigation. and there were signs that 10-year-old philip savopoulos had been stabbed and tortured, according to the source. the public defender representing wint has not responded to repeated requests for comment. attorney robin ficker, a lawyer who has represented wint in the past, has said he believes authorities have "the wrong guy." "i know him to be a kind, gentle, nonaggressive person; (he is) someone you wouldn't mind your grandmother going to lunch with," the maryland lawyer said last month after wint's arrest. "... it's a rush to judgment. there's a presumption of innocence, which is not being mentioned by police." asked tuesday about the alleged new evidence tying wint to one of the victims, he said, "i have a lot of questions about that. why is this coming out now?"

does blood on shoe link suspect to washington slayings?

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washington (cnn) donald trump finally admitted friday that "president barack obama was born in the united states," reversing himself on the issue that propelled him into national politics five years ago. trump sought to end his longstanding attempt to discredit the nation's first african-american president with just a few sentences tacked on at the end as he unveiled his new hotel on pennsylvania avenue in washington. but the issue isn't likely to die down any time soon -- especially as trump continues to falsely blame democratic nominee hillary clinton for starting the "birtherism" controversy. clinton said earlier friday that trump's acknowledgment of obama's birthplace doesn't go far enough and that he must also apologize. "for five years, he has led the birther movement to delegitimize our first black president," clinton said at an event in washington. "his campaign was founded on this outrageous lie." obama was born in hawaii in 1961. trump offered no apologies for his leading role in the birther movement and didn't explain what drove him to change his mind. the president dismissed trump's criticism friday, joking with reporters at the white house and saying, "i was pretty confident about where i was born." speaking at george mason university in fairfax, virginia, friday, first lady michelle obama addressed the controversy head on. "there were those who questioned and continue to question for the past eight years up through this very day whether my husband was even born in this country," she said. "well, during his time in office, i think barack has answered those questions with the example he set by going high when they low." the birtherism controversy exploded the previous night when trump said in an interview with the washington post that he still wasn't prepared to acknowledge obama's birthplace. within a few hours, the campaign released a statement -- attributed to his spokesman -- that said trump now believes obama was born in the united states. trump finally said the words out loud friday morning. "president barack obama was born in the united states. period," trump said, ignoring reporters' questions despite earlier indications he would hold a press conference. "now we all want to get back to making america strong and great again." the developments over the past day were steeped in political motivations. with 53 days before the presidential election, trump is moving into a margin of error race with clinton and trying to broaden his appeal while maintaining his grip on the gop base. trump has tried to improve his dismal standing among minority voters and moderate republicans in recent weeks, many of whom see birtherism as racially motivated and an insult to obama. he is also aiming to take the issue of obama's birthplace and legitimacy off the table by the time of the crucial debate with clinton september 26. trump has declined other opportunities during the past two weeks to refute his original birtherism. when local philadelphia tv station wpvi asked trump on september 2 about his past statements, trump replied: "i don't talk about it anymore. i told you, i don't talk about it anymore." he repeated the same line when asked about it during a gaggle with reporters aboard his plane last week. and in an interview with fox news' bill o'reilly last week, trump again said, "i don't bother talking about it." trump's extraordinary attempt to prove obama was not a natural-born us citizen and was therefore not qualified to be president started on the conservative fringe but gathered momentum and became a major issue. the white house initially tried to ignore the birtherism movement as the work of conspiracy theorists, but trump's huge media profile propelled the issue through conservative media and it eventually gained traction. the saga only ended in a surreal and extraordinary moment in american politics when the sitting president went to the white house briefing room in april 2011 and produced his long-form birth certificate. "we're not going to be able to solve our problems if we get distracted by sideshows and carnival barkers," obama said at the time, in a clear reference to trump. in his statement thursday night, trump spokesman jason miller said, "mr. trump did a great service to the president and the country by bringing closure to the issue that hillary clinton and her team first raised." he was referring to a controversy from the 2008 democratic primary fight between obama and clinton. in a march 2008 interview with "60 minutes," clinton said she took then-sen. obama's word that he was not a muslim, but when pressed if she believed he was, she replied, "no. no, there is nothing to base that on -- as far as i know." clinton, however, was not questioning obama's birthplace. clinton slammed trump's comments to the post while speaking at a congressional hispanic caucus institute event in washington thursday, saying he needs to stop his "ugliness" and "bigotry." "he was asked one more time: where was president obama born? and he still wouldn't say hawaii. he still wouldn't say america. this man wants to be our next president? when will he stop this ugliness, this bigotry?" she said. "this is the best he can do. this is who he is. and so we need to decide who we are." clinton's campaign later tweeted, "president obama's successor cannot and will not be the man who led the racist birther movement. period." trump's embrace of the birther controversy seemed outlandish when it began. in retrospect, it looks like a template for the fact-challenged approach he has adopted in his presidential campaign. after obama's news conference, the real-estate developer claimed credit for getting the president to produce evidence of his birthplace. "today i'm very proud of myself because i've accomplished something that nobody else was able to accomplish," trump said in new hampshire, after obama's news conference. in subsequent years, obama poked fun at the birtherism controversy and used it to ridicule trump, most memorably in a savage takedown at the white house correspondent's dinner in 2011. "now, i know that he's taken some flak lately, but no one is happier, no one is prouder to put this birth certificate matter to rest than the donald," obama said. "and that's because he can finally get back to focusing on the issues that matter -- like, did we fake the moon landing? what really happened in roswell? and where are biggie and tupac?"

trump: 'president barack obama was born in the united states'

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polls have closed in the new hampshire primary, where voters are selecting republican and democratic candidates for the us presidential race. state officials have predicted a historic turnout, with more than half a million people coming out to vote. republican donald trump and democrat bernie sanders are favourites to win their respective parties' races. new hampshire is the second major test after ted cruz and hillary clinton won the iowa caucuses last week. opinion surveys conducted before the vote suggest mr trump is the republican frontrunner, leaving senator cruz, marco rubio, john kasich, chris christie and jeb bush to vie for second place. on the democratic side, a large victory was predicted for vermont senator bernie sanders over former secretary of state hillary clinton. most polls closed at 19:00 local time (midnight gmt), though some are to remain open for an extra hour. votes are already being counted and results are expected in the next few hours. live results as they are counted the tiny town of dixville notch cast the first votes at midnight on tuesday, favouring bernie sanders and john kasich. under new hampshire state law, towns with populations of under 100 can apply to cast their vote as the clock strikes midnight and close the polling station as soon as everyone has voted. of the handful of voters in dixville notch in the early hours, four democrats chose mr sanders, while of the republicans two picked donald trump and three went for ohio governor john kasich. mr sanders, a senator from neighbouring vermont and a self-proclaimed "democratic socialist", is hoping for a victory in new hampshire over hillary clinton. mrs clinton, who has more support from the democratic establishment, narrowly won in iowa. "for those of you who are still deciding, still shopping, i hope i can close the deal," she said at a campaign event in manchester on monday. meanwhile mr sanders told cheering supporters: "we have come a long way in the last nine months. there is nothing, nothing, nothing that we cannot accomplish.'' the republican race has been particularly fractious. several candidates tore into florida senator marco rubio - who came a strong third in iowa - during a televised debate at the weekend. new jersey governor chris christie accused mr rubio of being inexperienced and scripted. "you have not been involved in a consequential decision," he said. how the us elects its president mr rubio was also assailed by billionaire donald trump and former florida governor jeb bush. on monday mr trump repeated his pledge to strengthen harsh interrogation technique to terrorism suspects, vowing to bring back waterboarding and "a hell of a lot worse". mr cruz, an evangelical conservative from texas who like mr trump is running on an anti-establishment platform, has called his win in the iowa caucuses a "victory for the grassroots". several of the seven republicans on stage have staked much on new hampshire, analysts say. despite its small size, the state's place in the primary season gives it special importance as candidates try to build an early momentum. over the coming months each us state will pick delegates who pledge to endorse a candidate at their party's convention in july. the victor on each side will compete in the november presidential election.

us election 2016: new hampshire polls close in key primary

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president obama's top health official testified wednesday that if the supreme court issues a ruling that upends the affordable care act, it's up to congress and the states to figure out a solution. health and human services secretary sylvia mathews burwell, testifying before the house ways and means committee, addressed questions over what will happen if the court rules against the administration on the health law. a decision is expected in days on whether insurance subsidies can legally be distributed to customers who buy insurance through the federal healthcare.gov -- as opposed to those getting insurance through state-based exchanges.<u+00a0>if the court rules against the administration, millions of people stand to lose their current subsidies. burwell made clear that the administration is not offering an alternative plan at this point, and instead wants congress and the states to work it out. "if the court says that we do not have the authority to give subsidies, the critical decisions will sit with the congress and states and governors to determine if those subsidies are available," she testified, adding that the administration would be "ready to communicate" and work with states to "do everything we can." in advance of a decision, republican congressional leaders say they are preparing for the possibility that a huge chunk of the subsidies could be invalidated. while obama would want congress to simply tweak the law to allow for subsidies to cover americans in all exchanges, it's unclear whether the congressional response would be that simple. "depending on what the supreme court decides, we will have a proposal that protects the american people from a very bad law," senate majority leader mitch mcconnell, r-ky., told fox news' bret baier on tuesday, without going into detail. on wednesday, house ways and means committee chairman paul ryan, r-wis., also said there is no "quick fix." "whatever the supreme court decides this month, i think the lesson is clear. obamacare is busted. it just doesn't work. and no quick fix can change this fact," ryan said in prepared remarks, renewing the call to "repeal and replace" the law. his criticism comes as health insurers in many states have proposed double-digit rate increases for next year -- which republicans cite as evidence of the law's failures, an assertion democrats reject. more than 30 states use the federal website and millions of their residents could lose subsidies -- which they receive as tax credits -- and be forced to drop health coverage they'd find too expensive. rep. sander levin of michigan, top democrat on the ways and means panel, said in prepared remarks that "predictions of doom and gloom from the other side have certainly not come to pass. no rationing, no destroying medicare, no bankruptcy." obama also said tuesday that his law was now embedded in the country's health care system and said the court shouldn't have accepted the case. he also mocked "unending chicken little warnings" from opponents who warned that the law would abridge people's freedom. "there's something, i have to say, just deeply cynical about the ceaseless, endless partisan attempts to roll back progress," obama said at the catholic hospital association conference. a court victory by the conservatives could put disproportionate political pressure on republicans to help those who've lost subsidies. of the 34 states likeliest to be most affected by such a ruling, 26 have gop governors. and 22 of the 24 gop senators up for re-election next year are from those same states. obama has said a "one-sentence provision" could repair the problem if the court bars subsidies for states without their own marketplaces, but republicans have rejected that approach. instead, top house and senate republicans have been working privately toward legislation restoring aid to those losing it until sometime in 2017. it would also eliminate parts of the health overhaul, such as its requirement that companies insure workers. that would almost certainly draw a veto from obama. republican lawmakers say they will unveil their plan once the justices rule, though there are no indications they have united behind a particular plan. they hope a republican will inhabit the white house in 2017 so they can repeal the current law and enact one less expansive. the associated press contributed to this report.

hhs to congress on obamacare court ruling: it<u+2019>s your problem

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muhammad will be back on the cover of the next edition of charlie hebdo, along with a message of forgiveness from surviving staffers at the french satirical magazine where 12 people were killed last week by a pair of islamist brothers angered over the publication's penchant for showing images of the prophet. the decimated, but uncowed magazine upped its usual print run of 60,000 copies to 3 million for the magazine, due out wednesday but released to the french newspaper liberation. fierce bidding on ebay had editions commanding as much as $500 following the outpouring of support for charlie hebdo, whose four top cartoonists were among the dozen killed. editor-in-chief g<u+00e9>rard biard said in a tuesday radio interview the decision to run a cartoon if muhammad holding a a <u+201c>je suis charlie<u+201d> sign with the caption "tout est pardonne," or "all is forgiven," and said the message was not that muhammad was offering forgiveness, as some initially assumed. "it is we who forgive, not muhammad,<u+201d> he told france info. eight charlie hebdo staffers were killed in the attack, including the magazine's editorial director, stephane charbonnier, who drew under the name "charb." biard said tomorrow's issue is meant as both a memorial to fallen co-workers and proof that the magazine's mission of irreverence has not been compromised. "we needed to figure out how to continue laughing and making others laugh," he said. "we wanted to analyze, say something about the events. this drawing made us laugh. he continued: "we did not want masked men on the cover. we didn't want more of that. that's not us. we didn't want to add to the gravity. it helps to be able to breathe a little." the cover was created by cartoonist renald luzier, who draws under the name "luz," and created what biard called a <u+201c>moving but not sad<u+201d> work. "seen by luz, mohammed is much more sympathetic than even the muslims see him. he's a 'nice little guy' as luz, puts it. those assassins killed people who draw nice little guys. we wanted to show the ludicrousness of it.<u+201d> the new york times reported late monday that when luz showed the drawing to staffers, he was greeted with laughter, applause and ironic shouts of "allahu akbar!" but one of egypt's top islamic authorities has warned charlie hebdo against publishing the cartoon. egypt's dar al-ifta, which is in charge of issuing religious edicts, on tuesday called the planned cover an "unjustified provocation" for millions of muslims who respect and love their prophet. the statement said the cartoon is likely to cause a new wave of hatred in french and western societies and called on the french government and others to reject "the racist act" by charlie hebdo. charlie hebdo's past caricatures of the muslim prophet appear to have prompted last week's attacks, part of the worst terrorist rampage in france in decades. a total of 12 people were killed at the newspaper's offices by said and cherif kouachi, french-born brothers who had trained with al qaeda in the arabian peninsula. some witnesses reported that the attackers at the paper's offices shouted "we have avenged the prophet." many muslims believe all images of muhammad are blasphemous. french police said monday that as many as six members of a terrorist cell involved in the attacks may still be at large. france saw its biggest demonstrations in history sunday as millions turned out to show unity and defend freedom of expression. the associated press contributed to this report.

defiant charlie hebdo to print 3m copies of latest edition with muhammad on cover

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bernie sanders<u+2019>s protracted campaign may actually help hillary clinton<u+2019>s general election campaign in the long run, say some political analysts and generational experts. how snl's 'the bubble' sketch about polarization is all too true sen. bernie sanders (i) is looking for assurances that presumptive nominee hillary clinton and the democratic party won't turn their backs on his progressive agenda. former secretary of state hillary clinton secured enough delegates to be the democratic candidate for president tuesday, but competitor vermont senator bernie sanders (i) remains in the race leaving the party in flux. "we just ended <u+2013> sort of ended <u+2013> our primary season," president obama told democratic donors in a new york city apartment wednesday, quickly catching his mistake. "i am concerned about us doing the hard nuts-and-bolts work of turning out people to vote, particularly young people, particularly low-income people." but doesn<u+2019>t mean the president thinks senator sanders should immediately end his campaign. the vermont senator has "more than earned his right to make his own decision about the course of his campaign," white house spokesman josh earnest told reporters wednesday. "what happens during primaries is you get a little ouchy," obama told late-night comedian jimmy fallon in a taping of nbc<u+2019>s "the tonight show" wednesday set to air thursday night. "the main role i<u+2019>m going to be playing in this process is to remind the american people that this is a serious job. this is not reality tv." so while sanders supporters may feel frustrated that mrs. clinton clinched the nomination for president tuesday they will eventually see the light, say democrats. "clinton people are going to have to be patient, and they<u+2019>re going to have to let sanders and his campaign work their way through this. there<u+2019>s going to be a little bit of back and forth regarding the platform and probably rules," veteran democratic strategist william carrick told the christian science monitor<u+2019>s linda feldmann wednesday. "millennials are disappointed that he<u+2019>s not the nominee, but then they begin to sort through it. instead of taking their bat and ball and going home, i think they<u+2019>re going to say, 'better finish the job. no donald trump.' " sanders<u+2019> sustained campaign may even help clinton<u+2019>s general election bid in the long run, say some political analysts and generational experts. "the likely consequences of millennial support of a bernie candidacy is that a) you may have mobilized a generation more than they would have otherwise, and b) you may have just pulled hillary to the left," jan leighley, a professor of political behavior at american university in washington, told the monitor<u+2019>s jessica mendoza earlier this week. "the reality is youth are very small percentage of the vote. that<u+2019>s true even in [presidential] election years... [and] even under the most generous assumptions." although the millennial generation has surpassed baby boomers as the country<u+2019>s largest living generation, and matched the boomers<u+2019> share of the electorate, only 46 percent of americans between the ages of 18 to 34 are likely to vote. but sanders has rallied young voters to show up at the primary polls, suggesting they will turn out again during the general election. and a clinton endorsement by president obama <u+2013> who has high favorability ratings at the moment <u+2013> may effectively speed up this party solidification process. sanders is set to meet with president obama at 11:15 am thursday, but the white house has been vague on the meeting<u+2019>s purpose. "i think the president will also convey his appreciation for the kind of agenda that senator sanders has run on," earnest told reporters wednesday. "and i think they<u+2019>ll have a conversation in the oval office tomorrow about how senator sanders can build on the progress that he has made in bringing attention to those issues and ensuring that the next president of the united states shares those priorities." as long as the next president is not a republican reality tv star, the white house implies. this report contains material from the associated press.

can the democratic party find unified path to the general election?

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voters in the nation's first primary delivered resounding victories to donald trump and democrat sen. bernie sanders, who both found a wider appeal with new hampshire voters than polls had predicted. ohio gov. john kasich emerged from a crowded pack of republicans to take second place.

how trump and sanders broadened their bases in new hampshire

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is the republican party on the verge of a historic crackup? something is happening in the republican party that has not happened in living memory. the party of unity, tradition, order and hierarchy is breaking apart over one man who personifies the concept of disruption. donald trump's so-far inexorable advance toward the republican presidential nomination has divided the party. this divide is not like the garden variety primary fights of recent cycles. it goes beyond the familiar squabbles of the party's postwar era (center versus right, moderate versus conservative, eastern versus western). what is coming looks more like the historic schism of 1912, when former president theodore roosevelt came back to challenge the re-election of his successor and fellow republican, william h. taft. that schism was exploited by woodrow wilson, the only democrat elected between 1896 and 1932. on thursday, the grand old party's most recent presidential nominee, mitt romney, delivered a stunning denunciation of its current presidential front-runner, donald trump, calling him a fraud and a phony who was "playing the american people for suckers" and who would be a disaster in the white house. john mccain, the arizona senator who had the party's nomination in 2008, immediately signaled his support of his "friend" romney. trump responded with a rambling takedown of romney's 2012 campaign. major figures from the party's officialdom and from the conservative media space lined up on one side or the other to be interviewed by journalists. some thought romney's move would finally break the dam on trump criticism within the party. others thought it would ultimately harden trump's voter base all the more. a few hours later, a televised debate pitting trump with his last three rivals turned so raucous and unruly that observers all across the political spectrum had cause to avert their eyes. the 11th meeting of the gop candidates may have been the most bruising to date for trump, the first-time candidate whose message and persona have dominated media coverage of the campaign since summer. rivals marco rubio and ted cruz largely ignored each other to concentrate on the man standing between them, offering a target for their crossfire. among other low points was trump's reaction to rubio joking about his anatomy. "he referred to my hands," said trump. "if they are small, something else must be small. i guarantee you there is no problem. i guarantee." at one juncture, with cruz and trump talking over each other, cruz tried to break the tension. "donald, learn not to interrupt," he said. "it's not complicated. count to 10. breathe, donald, breathe." that prompted rubio to ask when "the yoga" would be over, and then to needle trump for being "very flexible" <u+2014> a reference to trump's earlier explanations for his shifting positions on issues. the exuberant and unrestrained crowd in detroit hooted and jeered throughout the evening, as trump gave as good as he got with rubio ("little marco") and cruz ("lying ted"). but trump was often at a loss under questioning by the three fox news moderators. the fox team came loaded for bear, and trump had more trouble with their inquiries than anyone else onstage. john kasich, the ohio governor and fourth wheel in the debate, received far less attention from the moderators and got almost no rebuttal time because the other candidates never attacked him. that flaw in the format, much decried by kasich and a raft of other prospects who have already left the field, may have been the one failing of the fox production. moderators megyn kelly, bret baier and chris wallace drilled in with challenging questions, backed up with copious facts and at times illustrated with video clips kelly, who has crossed swords with trump before, stuck with one line of questioning about former students who sued trump's online business college, trump university. rubio had raised the issue a week earlier in another debate, and romney had returned to it in his summary of trump's failed ventures (which also included trump airlines, trump steaks, trump mortgage and trump vodka). still, the most memorable moment in the two-hour debate in detroit's historic fox theatre came near the end, when the candidates were asked if they would commit to supporting the party's nominee in november. the question might have seemed unnecessary in previous election cycles, but nothing has been ordinary about this one. in fact, on this occasion, the question of party unity was not only relevant but painfully salient. each of the four used the moment to get in a final pitch for himself, but all four also wound up saying, yes, they would support the nominee even if the party chose someone else. that was the "right" answer, of course, in the traditional world of politics. but little about this debate followed tradition. and one had to wonder how committed all four really were to the pledge <u+2014> and whether protestations of party loyalty would hold up under the strains now showing in the party's coalition. after the debate, lively media commentary continued well into the wee hours of the new day, with conservatives as divided as the candidates. trump had his defenders, as did rubio (who has been a magnet for endorsements from elected officials) and cruz (who has the backing of many "movement conservatives" and tea party activists). "there was no winner at the debate," wrote matthew continetti, editor-in-chief of the staunchly conservative washington free beacon. "but there was certainly a loser: the gop. it started this election cycle in a strong position, and is now on the precipice of nominating a political neophyte ... whose unfavorable ratings are sky-high and who loses to hillary clinton in practically every poll." the possibility of trump winning enough delegates to assure his nomination for president on the first ballot in cleveland in july has caused many gop and conservative leaders to scramble in search of any means to stop him. suddenly, there has been open talk of an open convention, with strategies that might thwart the wishes of pro-trump primary voters and force the convention to consider alternatives. randy barnett, a professor at georgetown university's law school, has proposed that cruz and rubio form a partnership, with each pledging to support the other at the convention. they would then become a team and a prospective ticket, with the one who gets the most primary votes running for president and the other being guaranteed the vice presidential slot. not a bad deal given that both men are still in their mid-40s. others, including romney, are suggesting that the three remaining rivals to trump should defer to each other in states where one has a natural advantage, such as kasich's ohio and rubio's florida. that would not secure the nomination for any of them, but it would prevent trump from amassing the 1,237 delegates he needs for a first-ballot nomination. after that, delegates are no longer committed to vote for their candidate and anything could happen. for many veteran politicos, all this seems not just tall talk but crazy talk. no convention of either party has needed even a second ballot for the nomination since 1952, and republicans have not needed multiple ballots since 1948. the last time a republican convention had any semblance of suspense was in 1976, and on that occasion the shadow of doubt was dispelled shortly after the opening gavel. since then, conventions have become duller with each quadrennial renewal, offering no suspense other than the choosing of a vice president or the debate over a plank in the platform. even these elements have usually been drained of potential controversy. few thought 2016 would be any different. but when things happen that cannot happen, it is time to reassess what is possible. or, as hunter s. thompson once wrote of another presidential campaign: "when the going gets weird, the weird turn professional."

is the republican party on the verge of a historic crackup?

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during the campaign, trump had threatened to impose a large tariff to keep the jobs in the united states.

house votes to roll back obama's immigration actions

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just one month ago, hillary clinton had amassed a 9-point lead over donald trump in national polls and had an even bigger advantage in several swing states. her eventual victory seemed to many to be all but assured, and democrats were so confident of winning that a landslide victory even seemed like a possibility. but it<u+2019>s all been downhill for clinton from there. starting in mid-august, her leads in both national and swing state polls began to gradually shrink. and the events of this past weekend seem to have made her margin narrow even further, as trump has been getting some of his best state polls of the entire general election campaign. importantly, clinton still appears to be narrowly ahead both nationally and in enough states to win. but the recent trends have not been good for her, and make a remarkably dramatic contrast with where the race appeared to be last month. so what<u+2019>s happened? why has this race gotten so close all of a sudden? matt yglesias offers the big-picture point that clinton is simply quite unpopular. but that still leaves open the question of why things have changed so quickly. inconveniently, a month of a campaign is a complex thing, with many different events unfolding either concurrently or one after another, which makes it difficult to test a clean theory about what<u+2019>s made the difference. some combination of all this is most likely responsible for the shift we<u+2019>ve seen, due to voters changing their minds and, perhaps, differences in poll response rates <u+2014> though it<u+2019>s unclear which of these factors is most important. what is clear is that a race democrats hoped would be a landslide is now looking more like a nail-biter. in the weeks following the democratic convention in late july, trump<u+2019>s poll standing plummeted. this was probably partly because clinton got a convention bounce, but another factor was likely trump<u+2019>s high-profile attacks on the family of the late capt. humayun khan. the kahn controversy was heavily covered in the press and earned trump a new round of condemnations from high-profile republicans. but around august 17, trump decided to make a change. he installed a new campaign team. he stopped doing constant tv interviews where he<u+2019>d end up putting his foot in his mouth. he started doing more traditional and message-driven campaign events, as the wall street journal<u+2019>s monica langley writes. and perhaps most importantly, trump has managed to avoid embroiling himself in any major new, campaign-consuming controversies (well, until thursday<u+2019>s birther flap, which hasn<u+2019>t yet played out in the polls). of course, he is being graded on a curve here <u+2014> as matt yglesias writes, even uneventful trump interviews usually contain several untrue or offensive statements that would shock us if any other politician were involved. trump still isn<u+2019>t doing as well as we would expect a generic republican nominee to be doing. vox<u+2019>s fundamentals-based elections forecast suggests that he should be winning 50.9 percent of the two-party vote, and he<u+2019>s currently 3 points behind that. still, trump has generally spent the past month hammering home his critique of clinton rather than being dogged with questions about one offensive statement or another. and that could be helping bring some reluctant republicans back into his camp. there<u+2019>s also one other big thing that<u+2019>s changed for trump in this time period: he finally started spending money on swing state campaign ads. until mid-august, hillary clinton had been spending millions on the airwaves essentially unopposed in every key state, but now the trump campaign has been investing millions in ads as well. now, these ads are only seen by swing state voters, so we wouldn<u+2019>t expect them to make a dent in national polls. and trump has improved nationally, so they<u+2019>re not at the heart of what<u+2019>s going on. still, they could be making a difference at the margins in his performance in the swing states that will decide the election. as trump has been improving his operation, clinton has been dogged by a series of negative news stories that could be hurting her to some extent. on september 2, the fbi released a report of its findings in its investigation into clinton<u+2019>s emails. there wasn<u+2019>t really much <u+201c>news<u+201d> here, but it quite understandably led to a new spate of news stories with <u+201c>clinton<u+201d> and <u+201c>fbi<u+201d> in the headlines. and considering that the last time clinton sank this badly in the polls was in the weeks after fbi director james comey first announced his findings in early july, it seems that when the topic is in the news, clinton<u+2019>s poll standing suffers. over this same late august/early september time period, a series of negative-sounding stories about the clinton foundation also were published. most of these stories didn<u+2019>t seem to amount to very much if you read their details closely. but the very fact that a bunch of negative-sounding stories about clinton appeared in the news helps create an aura of <u+201c>corruption<u+201d> around her, particularly when trump dubs her <u+201c>crooked,<u+201d> regardless of the fine details. (most voters aren<u+2019>t retaining the fine details here.) meanwhile, clinton kept a relatively light campaign schedule in august so she could focus on fundraising instead. the side effect, though, was that she didn<u+2019>t have the opportunity to <u+201c>counterprogram<u+201d> those negative news stories with positive events putting her message out there. <u+201c>clinton<u+2019>s decision to lay low in august <u+2026> will be debated for years,<u+201d> politico<u+2019>s glenn thrush writes. <u+201c>if she wins, her summertime fundraising blitz, meant to unleash a torrent of anti-trump advertising at campaign<u+2019>s end, will be regarded as strategic genius; lose and her decision is up there with michael dukakis in the tank.<u+201d> i find that to be a bit overheated and doubt this made that much of a difference, but, hey, when voters did see a lot of clinton and her message during the week of the democratic convention, they did seem to like them well enough. so the race had already gotten a good deal closer since mid-august. but then, the events of this past weekend seem to hurt clinton even more <u+2014> though it<u+2019>s not clear which mattered most. first was <u+201c>deplorables-gate.<u+201d> at a fundraiser last friday, clinton disparaged <u+201c>half<u+201d> of trump<u+2019>s supporters at a fundraiser as belonging in <u+201c>the basket of deplorables <u+2026> racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, islamophobic, you name it.<u+201d> clinton soon gave a semi-apology, saying that <u+201c>half<u+201d> was too much but reiterating that trump does indeed have many racist supporters. meanwhile, the trump campaign and much of the media quickly portrayed her remarks as a devastating gaffe akin to mitt romney<u+2019>s <u+201c>47 percent<u+201d> comments from 2012. afterward, things got worse for clinton, as she felt faint and had to leave a 9/11 commemoration event on sunday, was recorded nearly collapsing while being led into her car, and belatedly admitted that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia two days earlier. all this seemed to some to vindicate rumors trump and his allies had been trying to spread about clinton<u+2019>s health for some time, and made clinton appear less than fully forthright. this is speculative, but, like brendan nyhan of the upshot, i suspect the health news is hurting clinton more than deplorables-gate. yes, the trump campaign has seized on her remark, but the clinton team probably has better data and they now seem eager to discuss the topic (after the candidate<u+2019>s initial semi-apology). furthermore, the deplorables comment seems like the type of inside-baseball campaign story that ordinary voters won<u+2019>t really care about, whereas clinton<u+2019>s health is far more striking. search data also suggests that people are far, far more interested in clinton<u+2019>s health than in the <u+201c>deplorables<u+201d> controversy. now, it<u+2019>s possible that this sudden swing in the polls is affected somewhat by differential non-response rates, a phenomenon vox<u+2019>s jeff stein wrote about earlier this year. that is to say, the news of clinton<u+2019>s illness may have made her supporters less enthusiastic about even answering polls, so they<u+2019>d naturally show up less often in the results even after demographic weighting. similarly, trump supporters may have been disproportionately less likely to respond to polls back in early august, when trump was under fire for his attacks on the khan family. that could have made clinton<u+2019>s poll leads look artificially large then, and a change in clinton supporter response rates could be making the race look unusually tight now. as stein wrote, andrew gelman and alan abramowitz have compiled evidence showing that what looks like big poll swings can often be explained partly by this effect. yet if clinton voters truly are feeling so unenthusiastic about the race that they won<u+2019>t answer phone polls, that in itself indicates a major underlying enthusiasm problem her campaign needs to solve. furthermore, finding creative reasons to dismiss poll results that may not fit with your preconceptions has generally been a bad idea this year, as trump<u+2019>s primary rise and brexit have both shown. as for whether this is the harbinger of a new normal in the race, well, we don<u+2019>t really know, of course. there are still 53 more days until election day, and much can happen in that time. (everything mentioned above happened in just the past month!) clinton<u+2019>s health could get better or worse. trump could avoid more gaffes or start backsliding like he did with birtherism on thursday. the media could cover trump more harshly now that it seems more likely he could win. the debates could go well or disastrously for either candidate. what is clear is that a race democrats briefly thought they had in the bag no longer looks like such a sure thing.

3 explanations for why donald trump is suddenly doing better in the polls

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washington (cnn) american officials attempted to explain on monday the claim made over the weekend by defense secretary ash carter that iraqi defense forces "showed no will to fight" prior to the isis siege of ramadi. the comment, made in an exclusive interview with cnn, was the harshest public criticism of the iraqi security forces to date from the obama administration. the united states has said local fighters, rather than u.s. forces, must lead the fight against isis, a strategy that has come under withering criticism as the terror group gains ground in iraq and syria. the remark surprised iraq's prime minister haider al-abadi, who told the bbc that carter was "fed the wrong information." in a monday phone call with abadi, vice president joe biden "recognized the enormous sacrifice and bravery of iraqi forces over the past 18 months in ramadi and elsewhere," according to a statement from the white house. biden, who told abadi before ramadi's fall that shipments of weapons were being expedited to help protect the city, explained to the prime minister on monday the u.s. was planning to ramp up training to combat isis truck bombs, which were deployed in brutal fashion during the group's takeover of the anbar capital. meanwhile, u.s. officials were parsing what precisely carter meant when he told cnn pentagon correspondent barbara starr that "we have an issue with the will of the iraqis to fight isil and defend themselves," despite outnumbering isis forces. a senior administration official said carter's remarks were in reference to the ramadi siege specifically, which came after months of fighting and was hastened by a rash of isis suicide bombings, some of them at the same magnitude as the 1995 oklahoma city blast. "the reference to lack of will was in relation to this specific episode, which followed 18 months of fierce (iraqi security forces) attrition against isil in ramadi, coupled with what the iraqi government has acknowledged were breakdowns in military command, planning, and reinforcement," the official said. a senior defense official pointed to specific factors that may have contributed to iraqi troops' lack of fighting will in ramadi, including the absence of regular payments, the inability to visit family members and a general sense that commanders weren't looking after their battalions. according to this official, the u.s. has grown increasingly concerned about a lack of leadership skills within the iraqi ranks, seen as crucial to winning the support of troops in combat situations like the battle for ramadi. the white house has consistently ruled out sending american combat forces back into iraq after the decade-long war begun by president george w. bush. instead, the u.s. is relying on a strategy of empowering local forces to beat back isis where they've made gains. president barack obama, speaking to the atlantic magazine last week, said that "if the iraqis themselves are not willing or capable to arrive at the political accommodations necessary to govern, if they are not willing to fight for the security of their country, we cannot do that for them." officials say in anbar province, the equipping and training of sunni tribes is a priority as iraqi forces regroup and attempt to retake ramadi. "the rapid integration of the sunni tribes into the fight alongside other iraqi forces is essential as they will be the most invested in fighting for their areas," an administration official said. michele flournoy, a former undersecretary of defense who obama considered naming to the top pentagon post, said on cnn sunday the administration has "under-resourced" its counter-isis strategy. "we need to provide more fire power support, more intelligence surveillance," she told cnn's jim acosta on "state of the union."

joe biden praises iraqi military

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sioux city, iowa<u+00a0><u+2014><u+00a0>texas republican ted cruz on saturday brushed off the most recent poll results showing him behind businessman donald trump in iowa by 5 points. "if you had told me a year ago that two days out from the iowa caucuses we would be neck and neck, effectively tied for first place in the state of iowa, i would have been thrilled," cruz told reporters. the latest des moines register/bloomberg politics iowa poll, released hours before cruz held a rally here, showed trump retaking his lead in iowa. cruz previously held the poll's top spot. the latest iowa poll showed trump at 28% support among likely iowa republican caucusgoers and cruz at 23%. even so, cruz considers himself in a "dead heat" with trump for the top spot. cruz pointed to an increase in attacks against him as proof that he still has strong political standing in iowa. "everyone in the field is running millions of dollars in attack ads.<u+00a0>we saw it in the last debate where everyone lined up to toss their attacks. that<u+2019>s fine. that goes with the territory," cruz said. "i<u+2019>ll tell you i<u+2019>d be a lot more worried right now if nobody was attacking me. then that would be concerning: what do they know that we don<u+2019>t?" the u.s. senator and presidential hopeful was ending a five-stop day. cruz had set the rally here as the location for a one-on-one debate he challenged trump to earlier in the week. trump did not show up. throughout the day, cruz gave a version of his usual stump speech, laying out his agenda for what he'll do if he makes it to the white house. it includes repealing obamacare and common core, opening an investigation into planned parenthood, instituting a flat tax, and<u+00a0>eliminating the irs<u+00a0>and a slate of other federal agencies. linda imsland, of hubbard, said she supports cruz, during his stop in her town 25 miles north of ames. "he believes with all his heart that the constitution needs to be upheld," she said. "i believe he<u+2019>s a very patriotic man. i believe that he cares about the country, and i think it scares him to death to see where we<u+2019>re headed, and it does me, too." cruz has been making his final pitches throughout iowa while counting down the hours to caucus night. <u+201c>this is now your time. this is the men and women of iowa, the time to look candidates in the eyes and make the judgment: who do i trust? who do i know is going to defend the constitution, is going to repeal obamacare, is going to stop amnesty, is going to kill the terrorists and keep this country safe?<u+201d> cruz said.

cruz 'thrilled' despite drop in iowa poll

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ohio gov. john kasich on tuesday announced he will join the 2016 republican primary race for the white house, telling voters he has the <u+201c>skills and experience<u+201d> to restore the american dream. <u+201c>i am here to ask you for your prayers, your support, your efforts because i have decided to run for president of the united states,<u+201d> said kasich, a two-term governor who also spent 18 years in congress. the 63-year-old kasich became the 16th gop candidate -- and perhaps not the last -- when he declared his candidacy at the ohio state university. <u+201c>the american dream is pivotal to the future of our country,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>but i have to tell you, a lot of people are not sure that dream is still possible, not sure that dream is still alive. <u+2026> i have the skills and experience<u+201d> to restore that dream. kasich, known for his bluntness, was overwhelmingly re-elected last year to a second term as governor, winning bipartisan support for cutting taxes and improving the state economy. prior to becoming governor, kasich served in the u.s. house from 1983 to 2001, where in 1995 he ascended to chairman of the chamber<u+2019>s budget committee. in 1997, he helped seal a federal balanced budget deal. kasich also made a white house bid in 2000, but dropped out before the iowa straw poll. "he's certainly going to be a viable candidate," republican campaign strategist ed rollins told foxnews.com on monday. "no one's more qualified than he is. no one has more knowledge about the federal government. ... he was an extraordinary governor." kasich enters the race facing long odds. but he will likely use the situation to his advantage -- telling voters he understands tough challenges, considering he was the only republican elected to congress in 1982, and that he's eager to lead the fight for the middle class. he was also the youngest person to be elected to the ohio senate, when he won a seat in 1979 as a 26-year-old. on monday, kasich was ranked no. 12 among the top 15 gop candidates with 1.5 percent of the vote, according to an averaging of polls by the nonpartisan website realclearpolitics.com. former new york gov. george pataki is not listed in the poll average. former virginia gov. jim gilmore is also expected to enter the gop race. no republican has won the white house without carrying ohio. kasich, a former fox news channel commentator, is now one of four governors in the gop field -- joining new jersey<u+2019>s chris christie, louisiana<u+2019>s bobby jindal and wisconsin<u+2019>s scott walker. one of his biggest challenges will be getting into the top tier of republican candidates to qualify for some early debates. and he must convince primary voters who question his conservative credentials that his decision to expand obamacare in ohio was a moral imperative to help the poor. "john kasich<u+2019>s decision to expand medicaid in ohio in 2013 was a costly mistake,<u+201d><u+00a0>said david mcintosh, president of club for growth. <u+201c>medicaid enrollment in ohio has far outpaced kasich<u+2019>s projections and more than doubled in cost. the club for growth is concluding its research into kasich<u+2019>s broader record on issues of economic freedom. but, our presidential white paper on the ohio governor will, no doubt, warn of the long-lasting consequences from his decision to burden ohio with an ever-growing price tag for medicaid expansion.<u+201d> unions that turned back an effort by kasich and fellow republicans to limit public workers' collective bargaining rights say kasich's successes have come at a cost to local governments and schools, and that new ohio jobs lack the pay and benefits of the ones they replaced. they plan a protest outside tuesday's launch. kasich<u+2019>s parents were killed by a drunken driver in 1987, an event that purportedly strengthened his religious faith. he earned a bachelor<u+2019>s degree from ohio state in 1974. as a freshman political science major in 1970, he audaciously wrote a letter that landed him a 20-minute audience with president richard nixon. new day for america, the group supporting kasich's white house bid, recently said it has raised more than $11.5 million in just over eight weeks. that's in line with several of the better known republican presidential contenders, though former florida gov. jeb bush's team recently announced a fundraising haul exceeding $114 million. the associated press contributed to this report.

gov. kasich enters gop white house race touting 'skills and experience'

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tuesday<u+2019>s first-of-the-season democratic debate is unlikely to be what bernie sanders thinks it should be: a high-minded and nuanced discussion about the policies and prescriptions that would help americans. but that<u+2019>s because the media are running the debate<u+2014>and the media<u+2019>s chief goal, he believes, is to create a <u+201c>nation of morons.<u+201d> it<u+2019>s not exactly a new complaint of his. in fact, his complaints about the media predate the birth of most of the reporters who<u+2019>ll be covering the las vegas bout. sanders possesses <u+201c>the consistency of a piston,<u+201d> as my colleague michael kruse recently put it. in his four decades of politicking, sanders has remained faithful to his original views on labor, wall street and the banks, poverty, socialism, education, the environment, women<u+2019>s rights, income disparities, foreign policy and the woes of the middle class. nor have sanders<u+2019> ideas about media<u+2014>especially what he calls the <u+201c>corporate media<u+201d><u+2014>wavered since he entered vermont politics in the 1970s. in his view, the media tend to trivialize the important issues if they cover them at all. they want to cover campaign fights, not campaign debates. they over-rely on entertaining soundbites. their news agenda is about generating profits, not producing quality journalism that will <u+201c>educate<u+201d> the voters. and as powerful as the corporate media are, they seek even more concentrated power through acquisition and consolidation. politicians have been tying the press to the whipping post for centuries, so sanders hasn<u+2019>t discovered anything new. in this campaign cycle, hardly a day goes by without donald trump calling reporters <u+201c>clowns<u+201d> or <u+201c>dishonest,<u+201d> sometimes singling out by name those he considers the worst offenders. hillary clinton's disdain for the <u+201c>scorps<u+201d> in the press is legendary. when not playing duck and run, she marginalizes press inquiries with dismissive or evasive answers or by calling the questions <u+201c>distractions.<u+201d> but no presidential contender in memory has confronted the media quite the way sanders has<u+2014>and no candidate<u+2019>s media criticism is as central to his or her core beliefs as sanders<u+2019> complaints. he calls into question not only the product but also the capitalist structure upon which big media subsists. sanders never shrinks from speaking what he considers to be truth to media power. during an august campaign swing through iowa, sanders once again confronted reporters over the content of his questions, coming across as a press critic. <u+201c>the corporate media talks about all kinds of issues except the more important issues,<u+201d> sanders said, hitting the trivialization check-box. <u+201c>and time after time, i<u+2019>m being asked to criticize hillary clinton. that<u+2019>s the sport that you guys like,<u+201d> he continued. as one press critic to another, i can inform sanders that asking a politician to criticize another politician<u+2019>s views or actions is not necessarily <u+201c>sport.<u+201d> the conflict he seeks to avoid helps voters decide which candidate better represents their views and interests. but i know sanders is too dug in on this point to ever surrender. the public, he continued in his hallway reprimand, had tired of <u+201c>gotcha questions<u+201d> from the press and the effort of reporters to <u+201c>make conflict between the candidates rather than talking about the real issues impacting the american people.<u+201d> and with this flourish, he filled the confrontation and entertainment check-boxes to overflowing. the media have never been sanders<u+2019> highest priority<u+2014>they don't, for instance, rate a mention on his bernie for president issue page. but the topic has never been far from his lips at any time during his career. sometimes he criticizes the press, as in the iowa example, to fend off questions he thinks are beneath him, that don<u+2019>t advance his campaign or that he regards as too personal. in a perfectly sandersian world, he<u+2019>d be allowed to both ask and answer all the questions. other times, the sanders media critique verges into noam chomsky territory, denouncing the press for adhering to its corporatist agenda. sanders expressed his early views<u+2014>largely unchanged to this day<u+2014>on media in a 1979 piece for vermont<u+2019>s vanguard press, <u+201c>social control and the tube.<u+201d> the goal of the corporate tv masters was to <u+201c>intentionally brainwash people into submission and helplessness,<u+201d> making them easier marks for salesmen of <u+201c>underarm spray deodorants, automobiles, beer, cat food, politicians or whatever.<u+201d> (the deodorant menace is a recurrent sanders theme, too.) sanders continued: "with considerable forethought [tv capitalists] are attempting to create a nation of morons who will faithfully go out and buy this or that product, vote for this or that candidate, and faithfully work for their employers for as low a wage as possible." asserting that the <u+201c>controllers of that medium have far more power than almost any politician,<u+201d> sanders called for a <u+201c>democratically owned and controlled<u+201d> tv system populated with <u+201c>dozens of channels of commercial-free<u+201d> broadcasting to replace the existing order. i<u+2019>m sure that sanders finds little consolation in the fact that half of his wish came true: dozens of commercial-free channels such as the disney channel, hdnet, porn channels, the various flavors of hbo, starz and showtime and more have been established since his vanguard press manifesto. while commercial-free, the channels are still corporately owned. a politician can ignore the press, co-opt it, take the lumps as they<u+2019>re distributed, or <u+2014>as many conservative politicians do<u+2014>fight it like a punching bag to their advantage. following the conservative example, sanders fought the press for all these decades, and it has done much to burnish his image as a rebel and an independent. in every one of his political campaigns<u+2014>from his hopeless third-party candidacies in the 1970s through his current run for president<u+2014>sanders has cast himself as david fighting the goliaths of the major parties. he extends this underdog persona by relating to the media as if they were another goliath, making it easier for him to deflect the press corps<u+2019> criticisms as unfair corporate manipulation. but whereas clinton or trump might parry with the press for sport (as trump, in fact, did thursday night, devoting much of his speech in las vegas to media complaints), the sanders press critique doesn<u+2019>t stand separate from his critique of capitalism: in fact, his complaints about the media are part of the central animating principle of his entire political career. <u+201c>we live in a nation in which a handful of very, very wealthy people have extraordinary power over our economy and our political life and the media,<u+201d> he said in an august speech, reducing the corporate media to a mouthpiece for the rich. and we know how he feels about the rich.

bernie sanders vs. the lamestream media

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new standardized tests based on common core standards will begin tuesday in ohio, requiring hours more test time for kids, and will be computer and tablets accessible. in this photo taken feb. 12, 2015, sixth grade teacher carrie young, back center, answers questions from her students about an exercise on their laptops as they practice for the the common core state standards test in her classroom at morgan elementary school south in stockport, ohio. stockport, ohio <u+2013> sixth-grader kayla hunter considers herself pretty tech savvy. she has a computer at home unlike about half her classmates at her elementary school. and it matches up well with the one she'll use this week to take a new test linked to the common core standards. still, the perky 11-year-old worries. during a recent practice exam at her school in ohio, she couldn't even log on. "it wouldn't let me," she said. "it kept saying it wasn't right, and it just kept loading the whole time." her state<u+00a0>on tuesday<u+00a0>will be the first to administer one of two tests in english language arts and math based on the common core standards developed by two separate groups of states. by the end of the school year, about 12 million children in 29 states and the district of columbia will take them, using computers or electronic tablets. the exams are expected to be more difficult than the traditional spring standardized state exams they replace. in some states, they'll require hours of additional testing time because students will have to do more than just fill in the bubble. the goal is to test students on critical thinking skills, requiring them to describe their reasoning and solve problems. the tests have multimedia components, written essays, and multi-step calculations needed to solve math problems that go beyond just using rote memory. students in some states will take adaptive versions in which questions get harder or easier depending on their answers. but there's been controversy. the tests have been caught up in the debate playing out in state legislatures across the country about the federal role in education. although more than 40 states have adopted common core, which spells out what reading and math skills students should master in each grade, several have decided not to offer the tests - known as the smarter balanced assessment consortium, and partnership for assessment of readiness for college and careers, or parcc. some states are introducing other new state standardized tests this year. the common core tests fulfill the requirement in the federal no child left behind law for annual testing in reading and math in grades three to eight and again in high school. but as congress seeks to rewrite the education law, there's debate over whether the tests should be required by washington, and whether students are being tested too much. parents in pockets of the country have joined a movement to "opt out" of these standardized tests. questions also have been raised about students' keyboarding skills and schools' computer capacities. in the appalachian foothills where kayla attends morgan south elementary school, administrators and teachers worry that they don't have the bandwidth to provide reliable internet connectivity on testing day. both tests offer a paper option. parcc officials anticipate that about a quarter of students will use the paper version; smarter balanced officials estimate roughly 10 to 20 percent will take it on paper. just eight days before the test, the morgan local school district in rural southeastern ohio ordered 200 more chromebooks, which worked best during the practice run. the week before the test, kayla and her classmates huddled in pairs sharing what devices were available at the school. "they'll be more comfortable with the technology, but it is a worry of mine that, as far as the content that's on it, there's still stuff i could be doing to prepare for the test," says their teacher, carrie young. eleven-year-old colton kidd says the screens on the chromebooks are too small. classmate josie jackson, 12, prefers pencil and paper. but liam montgomery likes computerized tests: "it's easier to get the answers down, because i don't have to flip back and forth." in some places, school administrators and state leaders are only grudgingly moving forward. referencing federal law, illinois state board of education officials threatened to withhold funds from any district that didn't administer the parcc exam. chicago public schools officials cited technology concerns in announcing they won't give the exam in a majority of its schools. trisha kocanda, superintendent of the winnetka public schools in illinois, told parents that she's concerned about the length of the tests and the "excessive rigor." "we grow wary," ms. kocanda said, adding, that they believe "this test continues the over-emphasis on standardized assessments as evaluation tools for students and schools." in louisiana, gov. bobby jindal's effort to stop the parcc exam was derailed by a state judge who said the governor's actions were harmful to parents, teachers and students. jindal has said he took the action because he opposes what he views as federal intervention in the adoption of the standards. officials from the testing groups stand by the tests. in each of the states, students will see something that's familiar and something that's "new, different and exciting," said tony alpert, executive director for smarter balanced. "smarter balanced took the best of what states had in their previous systems and we made sure each state had access to that," mr. alpert said. laura slover, the chief executive officer of parcc, said the tests have an important equity component because parents can compare how their students are doing in comparison to students in other states. education secretary arne duncan said states are going to "figure this out together." "i think change is hard but anyone who thinks we should just do fill in the bubble tests and not look at critical thinking ... i don't quite understand that," duncan said. hefling reported from washington. associated press writer melinda deslatte in new orleans contributed to this report.

common core standardized tests begin tuesday

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the republican presidential field, which for much of the year has been full-throated in its denunciations of planned parenthood, has been nearly silent about the shooting in colorado at one of its facilities that left a police officer and two others dead. in contrast, all three of the leading democratic contenders quickly issued statements in support of planned parenthood. president obama, meanwhile, focused on the episode as more impetus for a renewed push to stop <u+201c>the easy accessibility of weapons of war on our streets to people who have no business wielding them. period. enough is enough.<u+201d> not until much more is known about alleged gunman robert lewis dear jr. and his precise motivations will the political implications of his actions become clear. it was suspected, according to a law enforcement official, that heated rhetoric surrounding the issue of abortion influenced dear<u+2019>s actions. the setting he chose was one that has developed particular resonance this election cycle, after an antiabortion group released a series of secretly filmed videos in which planned parenthood officials discuss the techniques and financial aspects of harvesting fetal tissue samples for scientific research. the videos, which planned parenthood noted were heavily edited, showed the officials talking about gruesome details with clinical detachment. many republicans have also accused planned parenthood of selling such tissue, which would be illegal and which the organization vehemently denies. [undercover video shows planned parenthood official discussing fetal organs used for research] stopping federal funding of the organization has become a rallying cry of republican politicians and a battle flag in the larger, decades-long political struggle over abortion rights. democrats have also been vociferous in their defense of the organization, which they say is a crucial provider of women<u+2019>s health services. as a presidential campaign issue, criticism of planned parenthood reached a crescendo during the sept. 16 gop presidential debate at the ronald reagan presidential library in simi valley, calif. <u+201c>i dare hillary clinton, barack obama to watch these tapes. watch a fully formed fetus on the table, its heart beating, its legs kicking while someone says we have to keep it alive to harvest its brain. this is about the character of our nation,<u+201d> former hewlett-packard chief executive carly fiorina said during the debate. her characterization of the video was incorrect, conflating the image of a fetus with a voice claiming to witness another scene. but it packed an emotional wallop, and fiorina has continued to insist that it was accurate. [fact-checking the second round of gop debates] fiorina has not said anything publicly about the shootings at the clinic, but a campaign spokeswoman noted that she is scheduled to appear on <u+201c>fox news sunday.<u+201d> the only gop contenders to make reference to the colorado shooting as of late saturday were sen. ted cruz (r-tex.), ohio gov. john kasich and former florida governor jeb bush. all expressed sympathy for the victims, though none of the three mentioned planned parenthood. bush, however, said: <u+201c>there is no acceptable explanation for this violence, and i will continue to pray for those who have been impacted.<u+201d> cruz tweeted saturday morning: <u+201c>praying for the loved ones of those killed, those injured & first responders who bravely got the situation under control in colorado springs.<u+201d> the reactions of colorado<u+2019>s two senators were also telling of the political sensitivities. democrat michael f. bennet tweeted: <u+201c>our thoughts tonight are with the victims and their families, planned parenthood, and the city and police department of colorado springs<u+201d> the state<u+2019>s junior senator, republican cory gardner <u+2014> who defeated incumbent mark udall last year in an election that democrats tried to make a referendum on reproductive rights <u+2014> issued a statement saturday night that did not mention the site of the killings. gardner said that he and his wife, jaime, were <u+201c>deeply saddened by the events that unfolded in colorado springs earlier today. this senseless act of violence is truly tragic and our hearts are with the victims and their families during this difficult time.<u+201d> at a rally saturday in sarasota, fla., gop front-runner donald trump stressed his opposition to gun control but talked only about the terrorist attacks in paris. <u+201c>if some of those folks that were just slaughtered in paris, if a couple of guns were in that room that were held by the good guys, you would<u+2019>ve had a different story, let me tell you,<u+201d> trump said. leading democrats expressed support and sympathy for planned parenthood, but most stopped short of asserting that the gunman was motivated by animosity toward the organization and one of the services it offers. sen. bernie sanders of vermont, however, seemed to be edging in that direction. <u+201c>while we still do not know the shooter<u+2019>s motive, what is clear is that planned parenthood has been the subject of vicious and unsubstantiated statements attacking an organization that provides critical health care for millions of americans,<u+201d> sanders said. <u+201c>i strongly support planned parenthood and the work it is doing, and hope people realize that bitter rhetoric can have unintended consequences.<u+201d> his rivals for the democratic nomination, former secretary of state hillary clinton and former maryland governor martin o<u+2019>malley, contained their comments to tweets that included the hashtag <u+201c>#standwithpp.<u+201d> in saturday<u+2019>s statement, obama said, <u+201c>we don<u+2019>t yet know what this particular gunman<u+2019>s so-called motive was for shooting twelve people, or for terrorizing an entire community, when he opened fire with an assault weapon and took hostages at a planned parenthood center in colorado.<u+201d> <u+201c>what we do know is that he killed a cop in the line of duty, along with two of the citizens that police officer was trying to protect,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>and we know that more americans and their families had fear forced upon them.<u+201d> rebecca sinderbrand in sarasota, fla., contributed to this report.

gop contenders nearly silent on colorado springs shooting

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ever since texas laws closed about half of the state's abortion clinics in 2013, researchers have been trying to understand just how much burden those laws place on women who are trying to access abortion. that's important because the supreme court is now considering those laws as part of whole woman's health v. hellerstedt, the court's most consequential abortion case in decades. if it finds that the laws place an "undue burden" on women, they'll likely be struck down. researchers with the texas policy evaluation project (txpep), looking into exactly that, have already found that some women had to wait as much as three weeks longer for an appointment. some women they've interviewed weren't able to secure an abortion at all, due to the logistical and financial barriers. now, txpep has published a significant study, in the american journal of public health, on the effects of hb2, the omnibus anti-abortion bill that the court could end up partially striking down. the study shows just how many burdens were placed on women as a result of the clinics closed by the law. researchers surveyed 398 texas women, comparing women whose nearest abortion clinic was closed in mid-2014 with those whose nearest clinic was still open in april 2013, shortly before the texas legislature debated hb2. the results were striking. of the women surveyed, 38 percent lived in a zip code where the closest clinic was open in 2013 but closed in 2014. one key finding: women whose nearest clinic hadn't closed had to travel an average of 22 miles, while women whose nearest clinic had closed traveled an average of 85 miles <u+2014> almost four times as far. and a quarter of women in the latter group had to travel more than 139 miles to get an abortion. this was the case even six months after hb2 went into effect, when abortion providers would have had at least some time to adjust to the initial chaos of closures. women whose nearest clinics closed had a tougher time by just about every measure: they had to travel farther and pay more out of pocket for things like gas, hotels, and child care. they were less likely to be able to access medication abortion instead of surgical abortion if they wanted it <u+2014> probably because texas law requires four different doctors' visits for medication abortion, which is a lot tougher to manage when you live far away. unsurprisingly, they were also more likely to report that it was "somewhat hard" or "very hard" to get care. women whose nearest clinics closed also faced more burdens <u+2014> for instance, they were more likely to both travel more than 50 miles and spend more than $100 on the trip. twenty-four percent of women in the closure group reported facing three or more different kinds of burdens, compared to just 4 percent of women whose clinics remained open. and the study only looked at women who eventually got their desired abortion <u+2014> so it couldn't account for the women who weren't able to get one at all because the burdens were too high. "this study is unusual in its ability to assess multiple burdens imposed on women as a result of clinic closures, but it is important to note that the burdens documented here are not the only hardships that women experienced as a result of hb2," said study author liza fuentes in a statement. strangely, there was no significant difference between the two groups of women in how far along they were in their pregnancy when they had an abortion. that's inconsistent with other txpep research that found, after hb2 passed, a small but significant increase in second-trimester abortion procedures, which are not quite as safe and a lot more expensive compared to the first trimester procedures. but that could be explained by a couple of things, the researchers wrote. either the long wait times forced by hb2 are affecting everyone equally, or the differences were too small to show up in this study. it's still clear, the researchers said, that the clinic closures after hb2 passed "resulted in significant burdens for women able to obtain care."

study: women had to drive 4 times farther after texas laws closed abortion clinics

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keeping an eye on your own energy use is the "duh" approach to a smorgasbord of environmental problems, up to and including climate change.<u+00a0>as a reporter, i can obsess over research funding for renewable technology, or streamlined permitting for solar installations, or more public transit, or better roads for cyclists and pedestrians, or how much fuel is burned in schlepping and refrigerating my food before it gets to me. but if i actually want to feel like i have control over one small corner of the world, i turn off the lights when i leave the room. when the downstairs neighbors in my apartment building turn on all the lights in the basement, because they are little weenies who are afraid of the dark, i go downstairs, turn them off myself, and generally think uncharitable thoughts about them and their various lifestyle choices. in all this light-switch obsessing, i am a textbook illustration of a phenomenon explored recently by the journal of environmental psychology. chris mooney over at<u+00a0>the washington post does a good job of summarizing the study: you know what this means: i have been judging my neighbors for all the wrong reasons. this is pure tragedy. the lead author of the study, ohio state university psychology doctoral student dan schley, hypothesizes that people tend to focus on switches because they<u+2019>re always touching the damn things. as he told the post: as a consequence, we tend to relatively underestimate just how much energy it takes to keep the air and water in our homes at a temperature we like. in general, people estimate that the appliances they interact with the most (computers, light switches, televisions, stoves) use the most energy, and that the ones that they just leave running in the background (like the furnace and the hot water heater) use less. in fact, home heating is one of the biggest energy sucks out there <u+2014> about 20 percent of home energy use, on average, instead of the 7 percent that the participants in one study estimated, on average. home heating is one of the biggest energy sucks out there the only highly interactive household appliance for which the study<u+2019>s participants tended to underestimate energy consumption was the car. (on average, americans use even more energy driving around than they do heating their homes.) but then, most people don<u+2019>t think of driving as household energy consumption <u+2014> possibly because most cars live outside houses and don<u+2019>t show up on the monthly utility bill (unless they<u+2019>re plug-in electrical cars). what is the smartest use of this information about our own psychology? can we make appliances of the future nag us more? will energy-sucking appliances flamboyantly display their habits instead of being tucked away in utility closets? (schley suggests having a light somewhere visible in the house that switches on every time the water heater does.) most importantly, if blinking lights are such an attention-getter, can i program my household appliances to throw me a disco party if i meet energy conservation goals? because that<u+2019>s the kind of future i can totally get behind. grist is a nonprofit news site that uses humor to shine a light on big green issues. get their email newsletter here, and follow them on facebook and twitter.

if you really want to save energy at home, forget about your light switches

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can israelis and palestinians change their minds? what makes people change their minds? about the really hard stuff. covering the israeli-palestinian conflict for the past three years, i've often wondered if people here ever do. this conflict is frequently described as "intractable," with neither side willing to give up their historical perspective or their entrenched positions to end it. and it does not take many interviews to hear repetitions of the same sweeping narrative repeated on each side. palestinians from different places cite the same historical events to back their views. israelis who have never met each other use similar turns of phrase. "people have a lot of [psychological] resources invested in what they believe about the conflict," says thomas zeitzoff, a political scientist at american university in washington, d.c., who has researched israeli and palestinian attitudes. he says the high political stakes and emotional involvement make it hard for israelis and palestinians to change their minds. but there have been certain shifts <u+2013> in public opinion and in individual beliefs - during the 68 years of israel's existence and almost half-century of the israeli military control over palestinian territories. why? experts list a range of influences that <u+2013> to varying degrees <u+2013> can move or even flip deeply held views. "you can point to major events, either in the world or people's lives, changes in their social context, as well as changes in the kind of messages they get from politicians and other elite sources," says brendan nyhan, an assistant professor at dartmouth college who researches politics and misperceptions. other factors include repeated exposure to a new idea, whatever the source, scientific research, and direct personal experience. four people <u+2013> two israeli and two palestinian <u+2013> told me their stories of personal, radical belief change related to the conflict. they not only changed their minds, but, a higher hurdle, their behavior. here are some triggers that led these people to see the world differently than they had before, even in the midst of a larger impasse. many groups supporting co-existence advocate for exposure to the other side. knowledge develops empathy, they say, which can broaden an individual's perspective as well as pique curiosity. maayan poleg is a middle east program director for the group seeds of peace, which brings palestinian and israeli teens together for summer camp in maine. she says the group does not advocate a particular political position and is not directly aiming to change minds. but time together, deliberately discussing the conflict, humanizes the enemy, she says, and helps participants question their assumptions, as well as navigate the onslaught of opinions from politicians, family and media to clarify their individual beliefs. "they become open to accepting the fact that what they know as truth is a narrative. that's a huge step," poleg said. "people spend a lot of time defending a specific fact. and it takes them a long time to understand that their fact is actually a narrative. it doesn't mean that it's wrong. it just means that there's another way to view it." palestinians and israelis used to interact with some regularity, often in the workplace or the marketplace. but over the past 15 years, they have been increasingly separated physically. they now spend very little time together. but one palestinian who went from throwing stones at israeli soldiers to teaching non-violence says he began to change his mind about violence while in an israeli prison. while behind bars, he learned hebrew, saw his first movie about the holocaust, and got to know israeli prison guards. "it's a process," says bassam aramin, who became one of the co-founders of combatants for peace, a group of former israeli soldiers and palestinian ex-militants. "you never wake up in the morning and say, 'oh my god, we are wrong. the israelis are right. i give up fighting.'" he remembers the first time he and other ex-combatants <u+2013> israeli and palestinian - sat down together. he was scared. "we don't trust them. i think they're from the israeli intelligence. maybe they are coming to arrest us," aramin recalls. he saw fear in the eyes of the israeli men who sat down with him. "it's the first time they're coming to meet a palestinian terrorist. and they have this fear of maybe one of us will kidnap them and kill them." trust did build trust over time and many conversations. they built an organization that teaches empathy and understanding. but empathy is also vulnerable to a change of heart. many israelis and palestinians reached out to each other eagerly after leaders signed their first-ever peace plan back in 1993. people were hopeful, and more open than ever to the idea they could live together peacefully, says palestinian sociologist nader said. "it was highly euphoric and highly exciting times," he remembers. but that peace deal, the oslo accords, did not deliver on its promise. violence returned with a vengeance when the second palestinian uprising, or intifada, broke out in september 2000. said, who has polled palestinians since the mid-1990s, says by then palestinian support for co-existence had already begun to fall, as people grew disillusioned by the gap between expectations and reality. "while they felt [israeli] settlement activity would decline, settlement activity has increased," he says. "they felt maybe they'll have more access to jerusalem, they have less access now." palestinian abla masrujeh is part of this societal shift. now 54, she invested her time, money and reputation in joint projects with israelis in the 1990s. she organized israeli visits to her hometown of nablus, in the west bank, where they shared meals and visited palestinian homes. she helped present a tel aviv exhibition of handcrafts done by women from both sides. but when violence broke out once again, she felt her new israeli friends did not understand her experiences as israeli soldiers swept through the west bank, or her point of view. "all this made me rethink my position and my opinion of israelis," masrujeh says. israelis went through the same reversal of hope, says pollster tamar hermann. "the repeated failures in achieving something tangible, and then the huge waves of terror, this made people think maybe it's not workable," she says. "people started to doubt whether the cognitive change which opened the door for the two-state solution was justifiable." many israelis cite repeated suicide bombings, in cafes and on buses during the second intifada, from 2000 to 2005, as the beginning of a national shift in attitudes toward palestinians. american social psychologist jay van bavel says accumulated experience often leads to change. "like a rat pressing a lever. if it gets a pellet, it will press the lever again. people are the same way," he says. over a decade, israeli tamar asraf's mind and lifestyle turned 180 degrees around. she describes the process not as repetitive feedback, but as digging deeper. once secular and opposed to israel's west bank settlements as an obstacle to peace, asraf is now religious and a spokesperson for eli, a growing settlement in the central west bank. "it works like this. you get more connected to yourself, you get more connected to your private roots, then you get more connected to your national roots," asraf says of her journey. exposed to religious jews during her army service, asraf began to feel her secular upbringing left huge gaps. when she began to study judaism, her sense of connection to biblical places in the west bank grew, trumping palestinian claims to the same land. israel's political power base has shifted to the right over the past two decades, says avi dgani, an israeli expert in mapping social and political dynamics. but even though identity politics, magnified by frequent violence and international attention, play a large role in the israeli-palestinian conflict, dgani says big personal swings such as the one asraf experienced aren't all that common. that's because many people don't deeply question their personal beliefs, or, subsequently, their politics, dgani says. he cites last year's re-election of prime minister benjamin netanyahu as an example. a third of netanyahu backers chose him simply because "me and my father and my forefather, we always voted right," dgani says. once people change their minds, one of the most powerful ways to maintain that new belief is to find new friends who share it. asraf moved to a settlement because the people there followed the same religious practices she had recently adopted. once there, she started voting for right-wing leaders, as do most of her neighbors. another israeli, noam chayut, shifted to the left politically. he says small jolts shook his beliefs briefly along the way, but real change took off when he found like-minded people. chayut wrote a book, the girl who stole my holocaust, about his change from zionist soldier to co-founder of breaking the silence, an organization of former soldiers who share anonymous stories critical of israel's military occupation of the west bank. time and a great deal of reflection were key to chayut's realization that his core beliefs had changed. "soldiers get orders, they obey," he says. "you just do things. but reflecting on it, i did things that were close to my moral boundary." people can be pushed to change their minds when they sense a clash between their beliefs and actions has become too strong. but change is hard because people protect themselves against internal dissonance, especially in situations as emotionally and politically laden as this conflict, says thomas zeitzoff, the american political scientist who has studied how narratives can change here. "we think people engage in what psychologists would call 'motivated cognition,'" says zeitzoff. "to avoid things that may threaten our own view of selves or others, maybe motivated in a benign way to remember certain facts more than others, and selectively ignore things that contradict beliefs." and that's just one of the reasons it's so hard to change.

can israelis and palestinians change their minds?

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in a speech in chicago wednesday, jeb bush will offer his views on foreign policy. as a former governor of florida, he has a clear record on domestic policies, but his views on foreign policy are less known. when jeb bush steps to a chicago podium wednesday morning to deliver a speech on his foreign policy views, the question on many minds will be which other bush the not-quite-yet-declared presidential candidate sounds more like. will jeb bush offer a hawkish, america<u+2019>s-way-or-the-highway vision of foreign policy, suggesting he<u+2019>d follow in his brother george w. bush<u+2019>s interventionist, neoconservative footsteps? or will he offer hints <u+2013> through references, for example, to america<u+2019>s leadership of broad coalitions to address global challenges <u+2013> of a more cautious and internationalist approach, reminiscent of his father, george h.w. bush? or then again, will he meld the two visions, which do, after all, represent the two most prominent camps of republican foreign policy thinking? or will he somehow manage to sound like neither the father nor the brother? such questions almost never arise when it comes to mr. bush<u+2019>s domestic policy vision, since the former florida governor has a record and established, public views on issues ranging from education and fiscal policy to immigration. indeed, when bush speaks of a "right to rise" and share in america<u+2019>s economic opportunities, no one asks whether that sounds more like the father<u+2019>s or the brother<u+2019>s domestic economic approach. but on foreign policy, he is much more of a clean slate <u+2013> and so the question of which former bush president he would more likely emulate can<u+2019>t help but come up. "every candidate has to pass the commander-in-chief threshold test, and every candidate faces certain mine fields in passing that test," says peter feaver, professor of political science and public policy at duke university in durham, n.c. "the particular mine field for jeb bush is the advantage and the burden of his family name." for starters, bush will have to watch not to "overreact to the media pressure, particularly on foreign policy, to answer the question, 'are you your brother or are you your dad?<u+2019> " professor feaver says. furthermore, the memory of pitched foreign policy battles in the george w. bush white house between father bush<u+2019>s pragmatic, internationalist wing (think then-secretary of state<u+00a0>colin powell) and the muscular neoconservatives behind the iraq war (dick cheney and donald rumsfeld, then vice president and secretary of defense) is sure to be on the minds of the<u+00a0>foreign policy experts who will parse every word that jeb bush utters wednesday. his talk is at the chicago council on global affairs. one hint of bush<u+2019>s preferred foreign policy course comes from the former officials he admires and those he is consulting with as<u+00a0>he explores a run. bush is said to particularly value the contributions of former secretary of state james baker and former national security adviser brent scowcroft <u+2013> two pillars of the first president bush<u+2019>s pragmatic and internationalist foreign policy approach. (neither bush i icon was particularly welcome at the bush ii white house.) word has leaked out that bush is consulting with former deputy secretary of state and former world bank president robert zoellick (the mild-mannered mr. zoellick left the george w. bush administration in 2006 after failing to rise to no. 1 at either state or treasury) and richard haass, president of the council on foreign relations. bush is also said to be considering making meghan<u+00a0>o<u+2019>sullivan, who served in george w. bush's national security council advising on iraq, as his campaign<u+2019>s chief foreign policy adviser. ms. o<u+2019>sullivan, who now teaches the practice of international affairs at harvard university<u+2019>s belfer center, is closely associated with the iraq war <u+2013> which might be considered a negative, given the war<u+2019>s low marks among the american public. but o<u+2019>sullivan is also credited with the <u+201c>surge<u+201d> strategy of 2007 that is viewed as having stabilized iraq, and in some books she gets a star for weathering the demands of then-defense secretary rumsfeld that she be removed from the post she held in post-invasion iraq. yet while some foreign policy experts see a preference for the father<u+2019>s foreign policy in the people jeb bush is consulting with, others see a tendency toward the brother<u+2019>s vision in the few speeches he has made on foreign affairs. in a <u+00a0>december speech in miami to a cuba pro-democracy group, bush said that instead of lifting the embargo on cuba, <u+201c>i would argue that we should strengthen it to put pressure on the cuban regime.<u+201d> he also faulted president obama<u+2019>s <u+201c>indecisiveness<u+201d> on syria and other issues for bringing on more instability and increasing threats to the united states. any association with george w. bush<u+2019>s iraq war might seem to spell political doom, since large majorities of americans continue to say that the heavy sacrifices and costs of the war were "not worth it." but on the other hand, what may be riding to jeb bush<u+2019>s rescue is the recent shift in us public opinion on foreign policy <u+2013> increasingly away from a "mind our own business" approach that had been gaining ground in the wake of the iraq and afghanistan wars, to a growing preference for more american intervention. "public opinion has turned around significantly over the last 14 months to favoring a much more robust us role in the world," says robert lieber, a professor of government and international affairs at georgetown university in washington. "i would assume that jeb bush would choose to tap into that as he lays out his foreign policy." duke university<u+2019>s feaver, who served in a national security capacity in george w. bush<u+2019>s white house, says jeb bush will have to answer the "iraq war question" at some point <u+2013> and that he<u+2019>ll have to do a better job than simply saying, "i<u+2019>ll talk about the future.... it<u+2019>s not about re-litigating anything in the past" <u+2013> as he did in response to a question last week. "he needs a better answer than that on iraq," feaver says. "he needs to explain how he would have done things differently <u+2013> and better." but he doesn<u+2019>t expect that to be part of what bush says in chicago. "the first big speech is about identifying the big questions around foreign policy today, laying out who we are and what<u+2019>s our role in the world, what are the big challenges we face, and how we can do a better job over the next four years," he says. "i wouldn<u+2019>t expect him to spend a lot of time on how he<u+2019>s different from his father or his brother."

jeb bush to lay out foreign policy: will he be dad, brother <u+2013> or himself? (+video)

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(cnn) egypt's military carried out a series of airstrikes against isis militants in libya on monday in retaliation for the slaughter of 21 egyptian christians by the jihadist group. the bombing raids pulled egypt deeper into the widening international fight against isis and highlighted the extremists' growing presence in north africa the warplanes hit 10 targets used for training and storage in isis' libyan stronghold of derna, egyptian foreign minister sameh shoukry told cnn. "avenging egyptian blood and punishing criminals and murderers is our right and duty," the egyptian military said in a statement that was broadcast on state television. there were conflicting claims about what the bombs had struck. "these were surgical strikes based on very accurate intelligence and related to degrading the capabilities of isis within the city of derna," shoukry told cnn's erin burnett. but an umbrella group of islamist militias in derna issued a statement saying that the city "woke up to a disaster today as egyptian military jets targeted civilians in residential areas in the city." the statement reported that the bombings had killed women and children, and it warned the egyptian government of a "harsh and painful" response to come. cnn couldn't independently verify what damage and casualties the airstrikes had caused. the footage, bearing many of the hallmarks of previous isis videos of the killing of hostages, has intensified international concerns about isis' deepening reach into countries far beyond its strongholds in syria and iraq. the slickly produced video shows the apparent mass killing, with jihadists in black standing behind each of the victims, who are all dressed in orange jumpsuits with their hands cuffed behind them. twenty-one egyptian christians were kidnapped in the libyan coastal city of sirte in two separate incidents in december and january. they were reportedly from impoverished villages and went to libya looking for work. although the isis video showed around a dozen men being beheaded, egyptian officials said that all 21 christians were believed to have been killed. some of the hostages cry out "oh god" and "oh jesus" as they are pushed to their knees. the five-minute video, released by isis' propaganda wing al-hayat media, includes a masked english-speaking jihadi who says, "the sea you have hidden sheikh osama bin laden's body in, we swear to allah, we will mix it with your blood." the video threatens egypt, which shares a long border with libya, and also europe, whose shores lie across the mediterranean sea. 'the right of retaliation' egyptian president abdel fattah el-sisi had warned sunday that his country "reserves the right of retaliation and with the methods and timing it sees fit for retribution for those murderers and criminals who are without the slightest humanity." he also declared a week of mourning in the muslim majority nation for the slain christians. in a statement, egypt's foreign ministry called for other nations battling isis to support egypt's efforts and to target terrorists in libya, as well. the u.s. government condemned the killings, saying isis' "barbarity knows no bounds." u.s. secretary of state john kerry called egyptian foreign minister sameh shoukry on sunday to offer condolences, the state department said. concern has increased over isis' rising influence in libya amid the power and security vacuum prevalent in the country since the 2011 uprising that overthrew former dictator moammar gadhafi. jihadists with allegiance to isis had also expanded their presence westward along the libyan coast, forming chapters in cities including benghazi, sirte and even tripoli, the capital, according to noman benotman, a former libyan jihadist now involved in counterterrorism for the quilliam foundation. "there's been a real radical islamist presence in libya for some time," said lt. col. rick francona, a retired u.s. air force intelligence officer. "what's worrying is now they are self-identifying with isis." questions remain over how much direct command and control the isis leadership in syria and iraq has over its north african affiliates. the killings of the egyptian christians has filled in some of the detail. before the grisly video was released, isis had released photos in its english-language magazine dabiq, claiming they had been killed. "there's certainly communication between the libyan affiliate and the affiliate in syria about matters of importance to both of them," said cnn national security analyst peter bergen. he said the ties between libyan jihadists and isis' precursor, al qaeda in iraq, "go back a very long time." "while we can come up with a military solution or a military operation in a restricted area like syria and iraq, what do we do when it expands to north africa?" francona asked.

egypt says it hit isis targets in libya after killings

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paris (cnn) security forces sealed off streets in a paris suburb monday, and a bomb squad headed to the scene after investigators found a possible suicide vest in a garbage can. paris police told cnn that authorities were trying to determine whether the article found in the paris suburb of montrouge contained explosives. cnn affiliate bfmtv reported that the item, which resembled a suicide vest, contained bolts and tatp, the same explosive found in the suicide belts used by paris attackers could there be a connection between the garbage-can find and the november 13 series of shootings and bombings that killed 130 people in paris? authorities haven't said. but bfmtv and the french newspaper le monde reported monday night that suspect salah abdeslam 's cell phone was tracked to the area soon after the attacks. "the big question is going to be: is this the suicide vest that salah abdeslam was tasked to use?" cnn terrorism analyst paul cruickshank said. and there are other questions, too, cruickshank said. if it was a vest belonging to abdeslam, why would it just have been discovered 10 days after the attacks? and if it wasn't, then whose is it? "it is possible that somebody else may have jettisoned it, an attacker that we don't know much about at this point," cruickshank said. "so they'll be doing all sorts of forensics, trying to establish who this belonged to, and that will be a huge priority for french investigators." abdeslam is thought to be using a support network in belgium to avoid being captured, more than a week after an international arrest warrant was issued for his arrest in connection with the paris terror attacks. sources in france close to the ongoing investigation believe abdeslam could not have survived a week on the run without help. they say that extensive raids in belgium on sunday and monday , in which 21 people were detained in several locations, targeted individuals suspected of a role in the network that organized the attacks. fifteen of those arrested have since been released. authorities charged one man with participating in the activities of a terrorist group in connection with the paris attacks. french authorities have said the paris attacks were organized in belgium, with jihadists taking advantage of intelligence gaps and the absence of border controls between the two countries to slip into france undetected. the nation's prime minister said brussels will remain at the highest terror level until at least next monday. and in brussels, fears of a terror attack will keep schools and the metro closed until wednesday at the earliest, belgian prime minister charles michel announced monday. "the worry is that there's another attack team out there, that they have explosives, that they have weapons," cruickshank said. "belgian police don't have a handle on where these guys are and that's why they're shaking the tree so hard." according to the bulletin, a cell phone recovered from a garbage bin near the scene of the bataclan concert hall and believed to belong to one of the terrorists contained a map of the theater. the bulletin, which was described to cnn and confirmed by other u.s. officials, advises local law enforcement to be on the lookout for suspicious people conducting surveillance of potential targets. meanwhile, france launched its first airstrikes from an aircraft carrier against isis on monday as president francois hollande began a diplomatic offensive to persuade world leaders to join a coalition fighting the terror group. the latest wave of airstrikes come as the french president pushes to form a multi-national force to fight isis after the terror organization claimed responsibility for the november 13 attacks that left 130 dead in paris. hollande will visit washington to meet with u.s. president barack obama on tuesday, then meet with german chancellor angela merkel on wednesday and travel to moscow to meet with russian president vladimir putin on thursday. hollande met with british prime minister david cameron earlier monday and they agreed to a pan-european effort for stronger external eu border controls, a more effective way of screening people and greater information sharing, cameron said. cameron will make a case for the united kingdom to start bombing isis positions in syria on thursday, he said monday as he presented the country's defense spending review in parliament. russia may be showing signs of warming up to a coalition with france. the russian defense ministry released photos on monday that showed the words "for paris" written on russian missiles that will target isis positions.

possible suicide vest found in paris suburb

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they<u+2019>ve called each other names. they<u+2019>ve mocked, belittled, skewered and slimed. and now that oddest of couples <u+2014> donald trump and fox news <u+2014> is engaged in a tit-for-tat feud like none seen in the annals of modern american politics. the greatest show on earth <u+2014> or at least in iowa. if things go as promised, trump won<u+2019>t be there thursday when fox hosts the final republican debate before monday<u+2019>s iowa presidential caucuses. he says he<u+2019>s backing out because of a taunting statement from fox, though his detractors accuse him of dodging a last showdown with his chief rival, sen. ted cruz (tex.). instead, trump has made plans to materialize elsewhere in iowa, hosting a benefit for wounded veterans <u+2014> counterprogramming on a trumpian scale of swagger. his threatened absence from the debate stage is a demonstration of trump<u+2019>s perception of his own self-worth, his verifiable status as a ratings-generating gargantuan whose screen persona can translate into millions of advertising dollars. in a sense, it<u+2019>s an act of subversion by a candidate who has broken all the normal rules of modern campaigns. but it<u+2019>s also a manifestation of trump<u+2019>s philosophy about getting what he wants when he wants it. <u+201c>the best thing you can do is deal from strength, and leverage is the biggest strength you can have,<u+201d> trump wrote in his career- defining and profile-elevating 1987 bestseller, <u+201c>trump: the art of the deal.<u+201d> <u+201c>leverage is having something the other guy wants.<u+201d> fox, a network that has reigned as a kingmaker in republican politics, now seems faced with an adversary who is acting as if he<u+2019>s already the king and doesn<u+2019>t need it. the sniping peaked this week when the billionaire developer appeared to taunt fox by polling his social media followers on whether he should appear at the debate. he also stepped up his attacks on fox anchor megyn kelly, whom he wanted to have removed as debate moderator. the poll and the kelly criticism irked fox news chairman and chief executive roger ailes, according to an executive at fox, and the network chief personally crafted a statement in response: <u+201c>we learned from a secret back channel that the ayatollah and putin both intend to treat donald trump unfairly when they meet with him if he becomes president <u+2014> a nefarious source tells us that trump has his own secret plan to replace the cabinet with his twitter followers to see if he should even go to those meetings.<u+201d> according to the fox executive, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations, ailes <u+201c>put together a tongue-in-cheek statement to take the heat off megyn.<u+201d> on wednesday, trump <u+2014> via twitter, naturally <u+2014> said fox went too far. <u+201c>it was the childishly written & taunting pr statement by fox that made me not do the debate, more so than lightweight reporter, @megynkelly.<u+201d> while publicly feuding with trump, the cable news behemoth also seemed to be at cross- purposes with itself, toggling between the competing goals of taking a hard line with the recalcitrant candidate and wooing him. fox executives did not respond to multiple interview requests. trump and fox have been poking at each other for months. their needling and gnashing began face-to-face at the first republican presidential debate in august, when kelly pressed trump about calling women <u+201c>fat pigs<u+201d> and other derogatory names. trump parried back the next morning by huffing that kelly had <u+201c>blood coming out of her wherever.<u+201d> critics said that was a reference to the anchor<u+2019>s menstrual cycle, but the candidate said it was merely a reference to her demeanor. the tangle soon devolved into long-distance warfare, a series of snippy news conferences and social media taunts, periodically interrupted by detentes. even as trump has pounded away at kelly, retweeting claims that she is a <u+201c>bimbo<u+201d> and calling her <u+201c>average in everyway,<u+201d> he has frequently appeared on fox news programs. a defiant trump appeared on fox host bill o<u+2019>reilly<u+2019>s show wednesday night, his 133rd appearance on the network since announcing his presidential run, according to a fox tally. when o<u+2019>reilly suggested that trump was making a mistake by skipping the debate, the gop front-runner said, <u+201c>i think you<u+2019>re wrong.<u+201d> trump<u+2019>s camp denied that the candidate was afraid to debate. <u+201c>he loves debating. he has participated in six debates,<u+201d> said trump spokesman corey lewandowski. <u+201c>he welcomes the opportunity to debate.<u+201d> fox has claimed that the trump spokesman leveled a threat against kelly on saturday in a conversation with one of the network<u+2019>s executives. <u+201c>lewandowski stated that megyn had a <u+2018>rough couple of days after that last debate<u+2019> and he <u+2018>would hate to have her go through that again,<u+2019><u+2008><u+201d> a fox spokeswoman said in a statement. <u+201c>we can<u+2019>t give in to terrorizations toward any of our employees.<u+201d> when asked about the fox claim, lewandowski said: <u+201c>i didn<u+2019>t do anything of the sort. .<u+2009>.<u+2009>. i did not threaten anyone.<u+201d> jill olmsted, a journalism professor and media critic at american university, said the cable channel<u+2019>s <u+201c>unnecessarily snarky comments<u+201d> mean that <u+201c>trump has won this round with fox <u+2014> big time.<u+201d> <u+201c>they took the low road and made mr. trump look like he is being targeted by fox,<u+201d> she said. <u+201c>i am quite surprised that grown-up media spokespersons for a major media outlet didn<u+2019>t know better, or at least weren<u+2019>t more practiced in holding their tempers when giving public comment.<u+201d> but john carroll, a communications professor at boston university, said: <u+201c>this may be a situation where donald trump was too clever by half. it may have been a gambit to get concessions, but when fox rightly told him to take a hike, he was boxed in. to save face he had almost no choice.<u+201d> rush limbaugh, the influential nationally syndicated radio host, concluded that fox is underestimating trump. <u+201c>i heard people on fox last night talking about this. <u+2018>who does he think he is? he can<u+2019>t control the media,<u+2019><u+2009><u+201d> limbaugh said on his program wednesday. <u+201c>i got news for you: he is controlling the media, and it<u+2019>s his objective .<u+2009>.<u+2009>. he controls the media when he<u+2019>s not on it. he controls the media when he is on it. he controls the media when he<u+2019>s asleep. nobody else has been able to do anything like this short of the kennedys, and they<u+2019>re pikers compared to the way trump is doing this.<u+201d> for the umpteenth time in this strange republican primary season, trump has made the race all about one thing: trump.

trump spurns a powerful player in gop politics in falling-out with fox

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donald trump is not a candidate the american people would turn to in normal times. he<u+2019>s too inexperienced, too eccentric, too volatile, too risky. voting trump is burning down the house to collect the insurance money <u+2014> you don<u+2019>t do it unless things are really, really bad. here is trump<u+2019>s problem: things are not really, really bad. in fact, things are doing much better than when president obama came into office. unemployment is 4.9 percent nationally <u+2014> a number trump knows is far from a crisis, because it<u+2019>s lower than the unemployment rate mike pence is presiding over in indiana, and trump keeps bragging about his running mate<u+2019>s economic record. the deficit has gone down in recent years, and the stock market has gone up. the end of the iraq and afghanistan wars mean fewer americans are dying abroad. a plurality approve of the job obama is doing. so trump needs to convince voters that things are bad, even if they<u+2019>re not. he needs to make americans afraid again. and tonight, he tried. "our convention occurs at a moment of crisis for our nation," trump said. "the attacks on our police, and the terrorism in our cities, threaten our very way of life. any politician who does not grasp this danger is not fit to lead our country." as jon favreau, a former speechwriter for obama, wrote on twitter, this was trump<u+2019>s "nightmare in america" speech. the address had one goal, and one goal only: to persuade americans that their country is a dangerous, besieged hellscape, and only donald trump can fix it. and so trump spoke of the "illegal immigrants with criminal records" who are "tonight roaming free to threaten peaceful citizens." he warned of the gangs, violence, and drugs "pouring into our communities." he invoked "the mothers and fathers who have lost their children to violence spilling across our border." perhaps the night<u+2019>s ugliest moment came when he spoke of sarah root, a college student killed by a drunk driver who was also an unauthorized immigrant. "i<u+2019>ve met sarah<u+2019>s beautiful family," trump said. "but to this administration, their amazing daughter was just one more american life that wasn<u+2019>t worth protecting. one more child to sacrifice on the altar of open borders." for the record, almost 10,000 people were killed in america by drunk drivers in 2010 <u+2014> the overwhelming majority of them by american citizens. trump had neither answers for nor interest in their deaths. and it is when you tug on these threads that trump<u+2019>s speech unspools and its grossness, and uselessness, becomes clear. there are many ways in which americans are actually not safe. more than 600,000 americans died of heart disease in 2015, many of them unnecessarily. more than 130,000 americans died in accidents. more than 40,000 died by suicide. there were a record number of drug overdoses in 2014, and gun deaths in america are far beyond those in any developed country. these tragedies can be ameliorated by policy. cigarettes can be taxed, alcohol regulated, addicts treated, guns made less accessible. but trump wasn<u+2019>t interested in making americans safer, and so he did not mention any of these policies. he was interested in making americans more afraid, and so he focused on the dangers that scare us, as opposed to the ones that truly threaten us. "the first task for our new administration will be to liberate our citizens from the crime and terrorism and lawlessness that threatens their communities," he said. "liberate." the america trump speaks of requires an occupying force sent by a strongman to free and stabilize cities that have fallen into anarchy. but our cities have not fallen into anarchy. our borders are not swarming with illegal immigrants. murder rates remain far below what the america of the '70s, '80s, and '90s experienced. terrorism is a horror, but successful terrorist attacks are a rarity, and one that would be most straightforwardly addressed through gun control. no liberation is necessary. "in this race for the white house," trump said, "i am the law and order candidate." and the law and order candidate can only win if there is a crisis of lawlessness and disorder. but there isn<u+2019>t. trump isn<u+2019>t worried about your safety. he is worried about his own electoral prospects. and this is what made trump<u+2019>s speech so truly ugly. it is one thing to whip up fear of the other when the other is a threat. but it is fully another to try to scare the shit out of americans because you<u+2019>re afraid they won<u+2019>t vote for you unless they<u+2019>re terrified. it is demagogic to warn, on national television, of foreign criminals "roaming" our streets simply because you<u+2019>re behind in the polls. it<u+2019>s telling that trump fears only the threats that can be blamed on outsiders while ignoring the more lethal, more pervasive killers that afflict the citizenry. trump<u+2019>s speech was a procession of horrors for which he did not even bother to propose real solutions. he has no actual fix to immigration, no theories on how to reduce crime. here, his statement bordered on self-parody. "i have a message for all of you: the crime and violence that today afflicts our nation will soon come to an end," he said. "beginning on january 20, 2017, safety will be restored." but then, perhaps there<u+2019>s truth to his absurd promises: when the crisis is invented, the solution is simpler. once trump no longer needs the nation to be afraid, he will stop scaring it. it is his nightmare, and only he can wake us from it.

donald trump doesn<u+2019>t want to make america great. he wants to make it afraid.

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hillary clinton appears to have scared away much of the competition should she seek the democratic nomination for president in 2016. but her early and practically all-encompassing effort also presents the potential liability that she will sail through the primary season largely untested for the bare-knuckled general election. and it could deny democrats the chance to define themselves to americans, strategists say. <u+201c>it's not good for a party because the democratic party needs a real debate about what it's for, who it's for, what it's about and where we'll take the country,<u+201d> says dennis kucinich, a former democratic congressman, presidential candidate and a fox news contributor. the 67-year-old clinton plans to make an official announcement in early 2015, leaving some doubt about whether she will indeed run. but her frontrunner status is unquestionable. she has roughly 62 percent of the likely vote and leads all potential democratic challengers by a numbing 49.5 percentage points. and those numbers combined with an ambitious public-speaking schedule and the fundraising and cheerleading group ready for hillary are making it difficult for potential primary challengers to raise money. in addition, clinton<u+2019>s most formidable, likely primary challenger now, massachusetts sen. elizabeth warren, insists she<u+2019>s not running, leaving the democratic field so wide open that 73-year-old bernie sanders, an independent and junior senator from vermont, is now fourth behind clinton, warren and vice president biden, according an averaging of polls by realclearpolitics.com <u+201c>i think you miss the chance to vet ideals,<u+201d> says richard fowler, a democrat and host of the progressive-leaning <u+201c>richard fowler talk show.<u+201d> <u+201c>i think that's what elections are about.<u+00a0>elections are about ideals and how ideals <u+2026> would then turn into policy that will then turn into how we govern.<u+201d> clinton, a former first lady, secretary of state and new york senator, hasn<u+2019>t been in a campaign-style debate since 2008, when she lost the democratic presidential primary to president obama, then a freshman illinois senator. still, a relatively easy 2016 primary, if clinton indeed runs, would likely save her from the pummeling she took last time. <u+201c>you<u+2019>re likeable enough, hillary,<u+201d> obama said on stage to clinton, who was the early democratic frontrunner in that race, too. among the tough questions she will likely face, and needs to answer well, include what she knew about security at the u.s. outpost in benghazi, libya, in which four americans were killed in a 2012 terror attack. clinton, who is worthy millions of dollars, also will likely have to make a strong case that she will champion the country<u+2019>s poor and working class, after saying on her 2014 book tour: <u+201c>we came out of the white house not only dead broke, but in debt.<u+201d> <u+201c>hillary clinton, i think, has proven that when you're off the trail for a while, you come back rusty,<u+201d> said larry sabato, director of the university of virginia<u+2019>s center for politics. <u+201c>she certainly came back rusty on that book tour.<u+201d>

clinton clearing primary field for potential 2016 run could leave her vulnerable

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donald trump voters praise him for 'telling it like it is.' but the appeal of his plain-speaking runs much deeper. how snl's 'the bubble' sketch about polarization is all too true ron herndon needs more than 10 fingers to count the ways republican presidential candidate donald trump rubs him the wrong way, not least the billionaire<u+2019>s quest for personal aggrandizement via the white house. so why is the small-town barbecue shack owner, a registered democrat, likely voting for mr. trump if he wins the gop nomination? <u+201c>america is at the point where she needs someone who speaks the truth, to say what we all think but won<u+2019>t say around strangers,<u+201d> says mr. herndon. <u+201c>sometimes the truth makes you smile <u+2013> and sometimes it hurts.<u+201d> herndon<u+2019>s view is that america needs a straight-talking president to tackle real-life problems long ignored by washington. it has become a common refrain. the views of this african-american pit master suggest that many americans are curious about trump not just because he brazenly breaks the rules of political rhetoric but also because the key to tackling america<u+2019>s problems, they say, requires people to stop taking offense at the drop of a hat. in that way, trump is the symbol of a broader cultural tension. as many millennials, in particular, become more militant in their desire to make public discourse inclusive, they are coming up against those tired of <u+201c>wars against christmas<u+201d> or tentative talk about islamic extremism. for millennials, who have grown up in the language of political correctness, speech is a weapon, and curtailing words that can be seen as offensive or hateful is a new civil-rights frontier. but trump<u+2019>s unfiltered speech encapsulates a potent backlash, with many conservative americans trying to draw the line on how cautious and careful public conversation becomes. <u+201c>the big difference with trump is, his language is not coded,<u+201d> says henry giroux, a political scientist at mcmaster university in hamilton, ontario, and author of the upcoming book <u+201c>america at war with itself,<u+201d> which largely focuses on the rise of trump. trump<u+2019>s words <u+201c>tap into is a nation that really has been suffering, particularly since 9/11, from a kind of national insecurity state, mobilized by a massive sense of fear,<u+201d> he adds. but millennials see in such language a <u+201c>darkness lurking beneath the surface.<u+201d> on super tuesday, trump continued his trend of underperforming among voters age 18 to 29. but he did well among new england suburbanites, southern evangelicals, small businessmen, and blue-collar workers, among others. at least partly behind trump<u+2019>s success is the perception that political correctness has morphed into <u+201c>soft totalitarianism,<u+201d> wrote james kalb wrote in chronicles magazine late last year. <u+201c>the domination of public life by pc elites has <u+2026> made it impossible for ordinary people to assert their complaints publicly in an acceptable way, so their objections can easily be shrugged off as the outbursts of ignorant bigots who will, in any event, soon become demographically irrelevant.<u+201d> antipathy toward political correctness spans a wide spectrum of americans, many whom use the phrase as a pejorative. seventy-one percent of americans say political correctness is a problem in the united states, up 10 percentage points from 2014, according to an august 2015 report by rasmussen reports. at the pawn depot, situated on a lonely stretch of us 278 in lithonia, ga., that concern is front-of-mind. elizabeth langbecker, the owner, is a trump fan because he <u+201c>refuses to tip-toe<u+201d> around immigration, the economy, and terrorism. <u+201c>we need someone who is not afraid to step up to the plate and say what a lot of us want to say,<u+201d> she adds. she weighs the obama administration's efforts to downplay the phrase "islamic extremism<u+201d> against the san bernardino, calif., shootings last year, where a muslim couple killed 14 people and injured 22 others. <u+201c>how can we deal with all these problems if we can<u+2019>t even have an honest conversation about the root cause,<u+201d> she says. in the 2016 race, political correctness has played out in a number of ways. on one hand, hillary clinton apologized for using the term <u+201c>illegal immigrant<u+201d> as opposed to <u+201c>undocumented migrant.<u+201d> but there have been examples on the right, too. republican orthodoxy has long held that candidates should not criticize past republican presidents. trump has torn that to shreds. <u+201c>yes, it<u+2019>s true that on college campuses there<u+2019>s a lot of silliness about not wanting to offend someone,<u+201d> says alan abramowitz, a political scientist at emory university in atlanta. <u+201c>but it<u+2019>s also on the conservative side <u+2013> which trump has also been violating <u+2013> where you couldn<u+2019>t say the iraq war was a mistake or <u+2026> that romney was going to lose<u+201d> the 2012 election. now those things are being said loudly. one difference is a sense of desperation in many rural, red-state areas. <u+201c>populism needs to be a loud message, and political incorrectness is high volume,<u+201d> says dave <u+201c>mudcat<u+201d> saunders of roanoke, va. the backdrop <u+201c>is not just anger, but survival <u+2013> we<u+2019>re in survival mode out here where 93 percent of counties are still in recession. a hungry dog will bite your [rear], i can tell you that.<u+201d> that desperation has matched the militancy of millennials looking to reshape the national conversation with the militancy of conservatives pushing back against it. the answer, says the atlantic<u+2019>s conor friedersdorf, is to prune political correctness back to its original essence. <u+201c>citizens who oppose trumpism are going to have to take a careful look at everything that falls under the rubric of political correctness; study the real harm done by its excesses; identify the many parts that are worth defending; and persuade more americans to adopt those norms voluntarily, for substantive reasons, not under duress of social shaming or other coercion,<u+201d> he writes. working on the set of the vampire series <u+201c>the originals<u+201d> in downtown conyers, ga., last week, 20-something michael sanders says, to him, political correctness is a <u+201c>force from on high<u+201d> <u+2013> the media, government, and academia <u+2013> that has pervaded his life. <u+201c>me and everyone i grew up with have always used the language of political correctness,<u+201d> he says. <u+201c>when we talk about phrases like <u+2018>illegal immigrant,<u+2019> my dad says, <u+2018>that<u+2019>s just the way people used to talk.<u+2019> <u+201d> on one hand, it enforces common courtesy. but there is an appeal, he adds, to someone who comes out and baldly talks from the standpoint of the worldview that used to be dominant. <u+201c>i think many americans like to hear the language of someone not only willing to complain about the end of white dominant culture, but someone who says he can do something about it. that<u+2019>s when [political correctness] goes out the window.<u+201d>

the power of trump<u+2019>s call to free america from political correctness (+video)

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americans desperately want something done about mass public shootings. hillary clinton took a page from president obama<u+2019>s playbook monday, vowing that as president she will bypass congress and use executive action to change how guns can be purchased. she is angry that republicans "refuse to do anything" about mass shootings. but that isn<u+2019>t accurate. clinton isn<u+2019>t the only one to speak out boldly on this topic. on saturday, donald trump said: <u+201c>and by the way, it was a gun-free zone. ... i<u+2019>ll tell you, if you had a couple of the teachers or someone with guns in that room, you would have been a hell of a lot better off.<u+201d> others such as sen. marco rubio have made a similar point.<u+201d> the republican push has at least the virtue of potentially stopping these crimes. the umpqua community college in oregon shooting shows yet another case where guns were banned. with these killers explicitly picking places where victims are defenseless, at some point it should be impossible to ignore. clinton<u+2019>s proposals wouldn<u+2019>t have stopped these attacks. the <u+201c>universal<u+201d> background checks on private transfers may raise the cost of law-abiding citizens getting guns. they wouldn<u+2019>t have stopped any of the mass public shootings during barack obama<u+2019>s presidency, including last thursday<u+2019>s in oregon. at some point an enterprising reporter might ask obama or clinton to name just one of the cases they have used to push this law where the law would have stopped the attack. clinton is proposing three other measures: 1. prohibiting domestic abusers and stalkers from buying and possessing guns. this sounds reasonable, but the change from existing law would allow people to have their guns taken from them without a court hearing. if people are committing crimes, they should be prosecuted for felonies or misdemeanors, but clinton<u+2019>s solution is to take away their guns even when they aren<u+2019>t being prosecuted. 2.<u+00a0>closing the <u+201c>charleston loophole,<u+201d> where the federal background check worker didn<u+2019>t contact the right law enforcement agencies. but the truth is more complicated. first, even a perfectly functioning background check system very likely wouldn<u+2019>t have stopped the suspect, dylann roof, from getting a gun. second, the current background check system is a<u+00a0>much worse mess than clinton recognizes. roof allegedly planned his attack for at least six months, so it<u+2019>s hard to believe he couldn<u+2019>t have figured out some way to obtain a gun. indeed, he stole the gun he used in this attack. the truth is, the databases the government uses to determine eligibility for gun purchases are rife with errors. fbi director james comey<u+2019>s comments in july about the fbi<u+2019>s background check system focus on one type of error, where someone who should have been prohibited from getting a gun wasn<u+2019>t stopped. but a much more common error involves people who should be able to buy guns but are stopped. 3. repeal the protection of lawful commerce in arms act, which prevents the manufacturers and dealers of firearms from being held liable for crimes committed with their weapons. it might be hard to remember, but gun makers were being sued because they "specifically geared" their weapons to make them attractive to gang members. among the offending characteristics listed are low price, easy concealability, corrosion resistance and high firepower. suing an industry for making affordable products shows how far the liability-litigation madness has gone. the lawsuits were simply an attempt to raise the costs of doing business and to bankrupt the companies. hillary may claim she cares about the poor, but poor people in the highest-crime areas benefit the most from gun ownership, and they are the people who would be priced out of owning guns for protection. vowing to do something concrete about mass public shootings on the campaign trail may be popular. but clinton<u+2019>s proposed gun-control solutions refuse to address the obvious problem of gun-free zones and will make ultimately make americans less safe. john r. lott, jr. is a columnist for<u+00a0>foxnews.com. he is an economist and was formerly chief economist at the united states sentencing commission. lott is also a leading expert on guns and op-eds on that issue are done in conjunction with the crime prevention research center. he is the author of nine books including "more guns, less crime." his latest book is "the war on guns: arming yourself against gun control lies (august 1, 2016). follow him on twitter@johnrlottjr.

why hillary clinton's gun control proposal is all wrong

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israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu<u+2019>s speech to congress was eloquent, moving and intelligent in identifying the problems with the potential nuclear deal with iran. but when describing the alternative to it, netanyahu entered never-never land, painting a scenario utterly divorced from reality. congress joined him on his fantasy ride, rapturously applauding as he spun out one unattainable demand after another. netanyahu declared that washington should reject the current deal, demand that tehran dismantle almost its entire nuclear program and commit never to restart it. in the world according to bibi, the chinese, russians and europeans will cheer, tighten sanctions, and increase pressure <u+2014> which would then lead iran to capitulate. <u+201c>dreams do come true, if only we wish hard enough,<u+201d> said peter pan. we have some history that can inform us on the more likely course. between 2003 and 2005, under another practical president, mohammad khatami, iran negotiated with three european union powers a possible deal to place its nuclear program under constraints and inspections. the chief nuclear negotiator at the time was hassan rouhani, now iran<u+2019>s president. iran proposed to cap its centrifuges at very low levels, keep enrichment levels well below those that could be used for weapons and convert its existing enriched uranium into fuel rods (which could not be put to military use). peter jenkins, the british representative to the international atomic energy agency, told the inter press service , <u+201c>all of us were impressed by the proposal.<u+201d> but the talks collapsed because the bush administration, acting through the british government, vetoed it. it was certain, jenkins explained, that if the west could <u+201c>scare<u+201d> the iranians, <u+201c>they would give in.<u+201d> what was the result? did iran return to the table and capitulate? no, the country withstood the sanctions and, unimpeded by any inspections, massively expanded its nuclear infrastructure. iran went from 164 centrifuges to 19,000, accumulated more than 17,000 pounds of enriched uranium gas and ramped up construction of a heavy water reactor at arak that could be used to produce weapons-grade plutonium. harvard university<u+2019>s graham allison, one of the united states<u+2019> foremost experts on nuclear issues, pointed out that <u+201c>by insisting on maximalist demands and rejecting potential agreements, the first of which would have limited iran to 164 centrifuges, we have seen iran advance from 10 years away from producing a bomb to only months.<u+201d> if the deal now being negotiated fails, the most likely scenario is a repetition of the past. iran will expand its nuclear program. if the other major powers believed that iran<u+2019>s offer was serious but u.s. and israeli intransigence torpedoed it, they would be reluctant to enforce sanctions <u+2014> and all sanctions start to leak over time anyway. netanyahu worries that with this deal, 10 years from now iran might restart some elements of its programs. but without the deal, in 10 years iran would likely have 50,000 centrifuges, a massive stockpile of highly enriched uranium, new facilities, thousands of experienced nuclear scientists and technicians, and a fully functioning heavy water reactor that can produce plutonium. at that point, what would bibi do? the theory that iran would buckle under continued pressure ignores certain basic facts. iran is a proud, nationalistic country. it has survived 36 years of western sanctions through low oil prices and high oil prices. it endured an eight-year war with iraq in which it lost an estimated half a million fighters. the nuclear program is popular, even with leaders of the pro-democratic green movement. as allison points out, iran already has the capacity to build a nuclear weapons program and got it in 2008 when it mastered the ability to produce centrifuges and enrich uranium. and yet, iran has not done it. for almost 25 years now, netanyahu has argued that iran is on the verge of producing a nuclear weapon. in 1996 <u+2014> 19 years ago <u+2014> he addressed the congress and made pretty much the same argument he made this week. over the last 10 years he has argued repeatedly that iran is one year away from a bomb. so why have bibi<u+2019>s predictions been wrong for 25 years? a small part of it has been western and israeli sabotage that impeded iran<u+2019>s progress. but even the most exaggerated claims by intelligence agencies would not account for a delay of more than a few years. the larger part is probably that iran has always recognized that were it to build a bomb, it would face huge international consequences. in other words, the mullahs have calculated <u+2014> correctly <u+2014> that the benefits of breakout are not worth the costs. the key to any agreement with iran is to keep the costs of breakout high and the benefits low. this is the most realistic path to keeping iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state <u+2014> not peter pan dreams. read more from fareed zakaria<u+2019>s archive, follow him on twitter or subscribe to his updates on facebook.

netanyahu enters never-never land

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boulder, colorado (cnn) the republican presidential campaign is entering a decidedly more combative phase as candidates prepare to take the debate stage on wednesday night. the gop field is seeing a shake-up after remaining static for weeks. long-time front-runner donald trump no longer appears invincible, thanks to the climb of ben carson. jeb bush has hit hard times, but promises to show a more muscular side. carly fiorina failed to turn her strong debate performances into winning poll numbers. and since the last debate in mid-september, wisconsin gov. scott walker has left the race. here are six things to watch in the cnbc debate: from his perch at the top of the republican field, trump had largely declined to go after ben carson, training his fire instead on other more seasoned politicians like bush, marco rubio and rand paul. referring to carson as a "good" person who he admires personally, trump has even fueled speculation the retired neurosurgeon could be on his vice presidential short list. but those days of playing nice are over. an abrupt shift in tone came after a series of consecutive polls showed carson had overtaken trump in iowa, relegating the businessman to second place. then, on tuesday, trump even lost his first place spot in a national poll, trailing carson 26% to 22%, according to tuesday's cbs/new york times poll. if the last week offers any indication, trump is expected to throw multiple punches at carson on the debate stage. the attacks could get personal. the real estate mogul appeared to suggest over the weekend that carson's religious affiliation <u+2014> he's a seventh-day adventist <u+2014> was extreme. but it will take a whole lot more to get carson firing back. known for his reserved and calm demeanor, the candidate has repeatedly said he has no interest in becoming an attack dog. "ben has said he's going to stay who he is and he wouldn't want to get elected being somebody else," said ryan rhodes, carson's iowa state director. "he does not need to tear someone else down to build himself up." when bush steps onto the stage wednesday night, there will be visual confirmation of his recent struggles. rather than take the podium immediately next to trump, bush will be two spots removed from the gop front-runner for the first time. the former florida governor's national poll numbers seem permanently stuck in the single digits behind political novices like trump and carson. last week, the campaign announced new cost-cutting measures, followed by a weekend bush family confab in houston. "he needs to have a performance that stands out from the crowd. he won't be center stage this time so he need to, in words and actions, figure out how not to fade into the wings," said katie packer, deputy campaign manager for mitt romney's 2012 campaign. (packer is neutral in the race but is a founding partner of wwp strategies, which works for rubio in michigan.) bush's advisers are suggesting bush may try to do just that on wednesday, by showing off his more fiery and loose side. the campaign is "tearing up the script" and preparing to simply "let jeb be jeb," sources told cnn's jamie gangel. there's no question that carly fiorina is the star of the republican debate team. what's less clear is whether she can translate the momentum from her prime-time performances into a lasting boost for her candidacy. the former hewlett-packard ceo used a breakout performance in the last cnn gop debate to propel herself from a little-known, first-time presidential candidate to a top-tier contender. but that surge in the national polls has all but vanished; she fell from 15% in september to 4% in last week's cnn/orc survey. her campaign has pushed back on any suggestion that fiorina may be going from one breakout moment to the next, and instead emphasized that she's focused on winning over voters at a slow and steady pace. "i'm glad people liked her debate performance and liked her message, but one debate does not win the thing," deputy campaign manager sarah isgur flores said. debt ceiling: to raise or not to raise in a debate that's promising to focus on jobs and the economy, one issue could divide the republican candidates on the stage wednesday: the debt limit. raising the debt ceiling is a congress-approved maneuver that essentially allows the u.s. government to carry more debt in order to allow the treasury department to continue paying its bills. the issue has become highly divisive among republicans in recent years: fiscal conservatives argue they would rather let the country default on its financial obligations than increase national spending. this week, congressional leaders and the white house reached a two-year budget deal that would raise it through early 2017. "raising the debt ceiling is politically explosive on the right. some candidates pander and say they never will raise it," said douglas holtz-eakin, president of the american action forum and economic adviser to john mccain in 2008. "others will invoke something like the boehner rule and argue that spending cuts will make it worth it. but the real test is who will say 'yes, we have to raise it'." of the 10 republicans participating in the prime-time debate, these four rank at the bottom: mike huckabee, chris christie, john kasich and rand paul. and they've been there most of the race. according to cnbc's average of recent national surveys, each of those republicans poll around 3%. with the iowa caucuses now just three months away, these candidates are under pressure not only to boost their rankings, but also to persuade donors to keep funding their bottom-tier campaigns. christie's campaign raised just over $4 million in the third quarter while kasich raised around $4.4 million since launching his campaign. that's not much more than the $3.9 million trump's campaign raised without actually trying. meanwhile, rand paul raised $2.5 million last quarter, while mike huckabee pulled in $1.2 million. will there be much of a debate? every candidate faces a shared challenge wednesday night: persuading viewers not to change the channel. after coming under fire from candidates like trump and carson, cnbc agreed to keep wednesday's prime time debate to just two hours, commercials included. the network also agreed to allow opening and closing statements for each candidate, which means even less time for the white house hopefuls to tackle questions, go after rivals and make a splash. the first two gop debates were record-setting blockbusters, pulling in an unprecedented 24 million and 23 million viewers each. not only are those numbers becoming increasingly hard to beat as the novelty of the debates wears off, but the debate also happens to collide with game 2 of the world series between the new york mets and the kansas city royals.

republican debate: six things to watch

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today the white house will hold the annual easter egg roll. kids will roll their eggs along the lawn, hunt for eggs, and enjoy other fun activities. it's a benign, heartwarming event. so where did this lovable tradition come from? it all started when congress made kids get off its lawn. the easter egg roll goes back a long time <u+2014> some say dolley madison began the tradition, though that's probably just legend. there are reports of various egg rolls occurring throughout the mid-1800s, but by the 1870s, there weren't a lot of places for kids to have fun in washington, dc. the city was very much under construction <u+2014> the washington monument had been left half-finished for 23 years <u+2014> and contained a lot of dirt and mud. that led a lot of kids to play near capitol hill. the only problem? their presence uprooted some of the tender grass that was just starting to grow near the capitol building. the annual easter egg rolls they held there upset the national landscaping. so on april 21, 1876, congress passed the turf protection law, which banned easter egg rolls on capitol hill. in 1877, bad weather kept the easter egg roll from happening, and 1878 didn't look much better. in the days leading up to easter, the washington post warned kids not to roll their eggs on the capitol's lawn or they'd encounter the large capitol police force: things looked bleak for the easter tradition until the president stepped in. at some point in april 1878, a child from the neighborhood saw president hayes on a stroll. he asked hayes when he'd allow kids to roll eggs on his new white house lawn. hayes looked into it and told the guards that if any kids showed up to roll eggs on the white house lawn, it was fine. it's tempting to interpret the egg roll as a political battle. after all, the leader behind the turf protection law, william holman, was a democrat, and that party regularly called hayes "rutherfraud" because of his disputed election in 1876. so perhaps hayes was just trying to show up democrats? more likely, it was that the president wanted kids to have fun. nancy kleinhenz is the communications manager at the rutherford b. hayes presidential center, where they've been re-creating the egg roll for years. she says it wasn't politics but fatherly instincts that inspired hayes to save the day. after all, hayes had two children who were still young: scott and fanny, who were 10 and seven. "politics wasn't a factor," kleinhenz says. "he was a dad." since then, the easter egg roll has become a tradition at the white house, with only brief pauses during wartime. the easter egg roll probably isn't a story about partisan battles. but in washington, everything becomes political when federal resources are involved <u+2014> and that includes which lawn gets trampled by children playing with eggs.

the white house easter egg roll exists because congress banned fun

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the senate voted wednesday to clear the path to fund dhs, after republicans agreed to withdraw immigration restrictions from the bill. but it will be tougher to get it through the house, where member districts are more homogeneous. no question, senate majority leader mitch mcconnell (r) of kentucky blinked when it came to funding the department of homeland security. with the clock ticking toward a dhs shutdown<u+00a0>friday<u+00a0>night and democrats repeatedly blocking debate on a funding bill because it contained immigration <u+201c>poison pills,<u+201d> the senate leader gave democrats what they wanted<u+00a0>on wednesday: a <u+201c>clean<u+201d> funding bill, minus the toxic measure to block president obama<u+2019>s executive immigration action on immigration in november. that will be taken up separately. will house speaker john boehner (r) of ohio also blink, and bring the clean bill <u+2013> expected to pass the senate with a strong bipartisan vote <u+2013> to the floor? such a move would put him at odds with many in his caucus, and possibly prompt a challenge to his leadership. as weeks of struggle over dhs funding have shown, republican control of both chambers doesn<u+2019>t necessarily mean smooth sailing for the gop. even when the two leaders agree on policy <u+2013> as they do in this case <u+2013> they work under very different conditions, with each chamber having its own political climate and ways of doing things. majority leader mcconnell for instance, faces the unique challenge of the filibuster <u+2013> the senate blocking device that requires 60 votes to overcome. with republicans holding 54 seats, he needs at least six democrats to pass any controversial legislation, an incentive for at least a minimally bipartisan approach. he also has 24 senators up for reelection in 2016 <u+2013> several of them from blue states. that encourages political flexibility. most gop house seats, on the other hand, are secure in gerrymandered districts and red states. that promotes rigidity. <u+201c>mcconnell has his own challenge. having won a majority, and a bigger one than he expected, he still has a challenge in holding it. and holding it means showing he can govern and providing some protection for senators who are up in ohio, in pennsylvania, in new hampshire,<u+201d> says norman ornstein, a resident scholar at the american enterprise institute in washington. house republicans,<u+00a0>on the other hand, <u+201c>dominate<u+201d> in states such as mississippi, alabama, oklahoma, louisiana, and texas, mr. ornstein points out. <u+201c>these individual house districts are themselves homogeneous echo chambers.<u+201d> you can hear the difference when talking with republicans from these two worlds. republican sen. mark kirk is up for reelection in illinois, which obama easily won in 2012 and 2008. he was an early supporter of a <u+201c>clean<u+201d> bill to fully fund dhs without the immigration riders. he wanted nothing to come between his state and the funding. senator kirk recalls traveling through chicago<u+2019>s o<u+2019>hare airport, which is a known potential terrorist target. <u+201c>boy did i get an earful<u+00a0>from the people i represent,<u+201d> senator kirk says in a brief interview in the senate basement, on the way to his office. <u+201c>chicago doesn<u+2019>t work unless us military protects the united states. we gotta have dhs.<u+201d> kirk says he<u+2019>s tried to be the consistent <u+201c>lone voice in the wilderness<u+201d> on dhs funding, and <u+201c>if our party doctrine was to mess the bill up, then to say that the party doctrine was wrong, and we should just pass clean dhs.<u+201d> but just a five-minute walk away, on the house side of the capitol, rep. john fleming (r) of louisiana holds the opposite view. a tea party favorite, he faced no democratic opponent in his reelection bid of 2010, but he did face a libertarian one. in a scrum of reporters, congressman fleming said a potential dhs shutdown did not come up at a closed gop house conference<u+00a0>wednesday<u+00a0>morning. the real question, he continued, is the president<u+2019>s november executive action that would shield millions of undocumented immigrants from deportation.<u+00a0>that<u+2019>s executive overreach and unconstitutional, he and other republicans say. in january, the house gop passed a dhs funding bill that also blocked funding for that program. <u+201c>the only tool we have in congress to block an unconstitutional act that would severely damage americans for generations to come is to deplete the funding of that very executive action, and that<u+2019>s what our bill does and that<u+2019>s what we intend to do,<u+201d> he said. when asked what his constituents think should be done about the funding issue, he said, <u+201c>we don<u+2019>t get a lot of calls because they know my position on this. if i deviated, they<u+2019>d be very upset.<u+201d> indeed, conservatives such as fleming would be very angry if boehner decided to bring a clean dhs bill to the house floor. many have said they would not vote for a bill that did not also block the president<u+2019>s immigration action, and they<u+2019>re supported by conservative bloggers and outside groups who are already screaming about a cave-in. some house republicans might even try to stage a leadership coup. in january, 25 republicans voted for someone other than boehner for speaker. while mcconnell faces his challenge of 60 votes, the speaker<u+2019>s challenge is to keep his diverse caucus in line so he can reach the magic target of 218, the number of votes needed to pass a bill in the house. republicans hold 247 seats, but with a diverse caucus, it<u+2019>s a challenge getting to 218. boehner likens it to keeping frogs in a wheelbarrow, and on controversial legislation <u+2013> such as the budget <u+2013> he<u+2019>s had to turn to democrats for votes. <u+201c>for boehner, just as it has been for the last few years, his challenge is how many times can he bring up things for passage that will require more democrats, and when he brings those up, can he be sure he<u+2019>ll get enough republicans to add to the democrats?<u+201d> ornstein says. if dhs is to be fully funded, a bill that kills the president<u+2019>s executive action won<u+2019>t be part of it <u+2013> that much has been made clear by the senate showdown. boehner will either have to bring his caucus around, or turn to house democrats to buttress his numbers, with a fallback position being a stopgap continuing resolution. <u+201c>i think boehner in his gut knows that he<u+2019>s going to have to face reality here,<u+201d> says a republican house member, speaking on background. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s just a matter of the speaker being able to articulate this to those members <u+2013> to the <u+2018>hell no<u+2019> caucus, who are going to be unhappy with anything short of a complete and total victory.<u+201d> in other words, he'll have to blink.

homeland security deal: will boehner follow mcconnell's lead? (+video)

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(cnn) as white house officials began preparing for president barack obama's final state of the union speech, they dug up past "eighth-year" speeches and found something in common -- nearly all of them looked back. it was tempting for the president to follow the lead of his predecessors, take a victory lap and mainly tout his administration's achievements. but obama's instruction to his team was simple: don't do that. "don't take our foot off the gas," the president told a group of west wing aides and speechwriters preparing drafts of the speech, according to a senior white house official who attended meeting. as his top aides have described it, obama has chosen to deliver a "nontraditional" state of the union. gone is the laundry list of policy proposals funneled into the white house from agencies across the federal government. no more "myra's," one official quipped, pointing to the previous idea for a new government savings account that was inserted into a past state of the union. "it's not going to be 'check the box,' " explained one senior white house official, insisting that the annual retrieval of recommendations from cabinet members will not be shoehorned into the speech. obama previewed his plan to talk about his vision for the future in a video teaser tweeted by white house chief of staff denis mcdonough. "the big things that will guarantee an even stronger, better, more prosperous america for our kids. the america we believe in," obama said in the video. vision for u.s. leadership around the world one of those "big things" will be the president's vision for u.s. leadership in the world in the post-obama years. a senior white house official said obama will urge the nation to follow his preferred foreign policy approach of diplomacy and multilateralism. to illustrate that call, the president is likely to tout the administration's response to the ebola outbreak, the climate change agreement in paris and his decision to normalize relations with cuba. in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in paris and san bernardino, california, obama will also seek to reassure americans once again about their safety. senior administration officials said obama plans to devote part of the speech to his vow to protect the american home front and put the nation on a path to destroying isis, a mission aides concede likely won't be accomplished on his watch. the war on isis "will be the overarching focus of everything we do this year," deputy national security adviser ben rhodes told reporters earlier this year. still, obama will dedicate much of the speech to his late second-term agenda. in the coming weeks, the president is expected to deliver a plan to congress for closing the terror detention center at guantanamo. obama will likely threaten to act on his own to shut down the facility if lawmakers balk at the proposal. in what will be an emotional high point in the speech, the president will also defend his executive actions aimed at tightening the nation's background check system for gun buyers. obama will then point to the first lady's box at the address where an empty seat will represent the victims of gun violence. still, a nod to the past given that this is obama's final state of the union, aides believe the president will still take a few moments to look back on his two terms in office, especially its tumultuous beginning. obama was sworn into office as the nation was on the verge of slipping into a second great depression, his aides often remind reporters. the president has already begun to recall his administration's handling of the financial crisis, pointing to the recovery of the u.s. auto industry in his weekly address to the nation on saturday. there will also be a heavy dose of nostalgia in obama's speech. inside the west wing, top officials who are veterans of the president's first campaign for the white house can hardly believe obama's time in office is almost up. in a nod to those one-time campaign aides who made the transition to the administration and the scores of volunteers during both election cycles, obama will point to edith childs, who will be sitting in the first lady's box during the speech. childs, a county council member in greenwood, south carolina, coined the popular chant, "fired up! ready to go!" at one of obama's rallies in 2007. then-sen. obama was so struck by the cheer it was adopted as an unofficial campaign slogan for the rest of his white house run. "this is going to be an incredibly emotional moment," said van jones, a leading environmental official in obama's first administration and now a cnn political contributor. "you think about speech after speech, and this is the last one. this is the last state of the union. and there's no deceleration in this guy. there's no deceleration. this is the guy that we voted for," jones added. despite that rich election lore waiting to be tapped, the president won't spend too much time reliving his election glory years, aides insist. top officials describe the graying but still youthful 54-year-old president as almost restless, eager to squeeze every moment he can from his remaining year in office. "the question is what are the kinds of decisions that we are going to make right now that are going to ensure that we're going to pass on our to kids and their kids the most prosperous, the most secure, the most fair united states that has ever existed," white house press secretary josh earnest told reporters friday. house speaker paul ryan, who has also signaled an ambitious agenda for 2016, joked that obama should spend his final state of the union apologizing for his past policies. " 'i take it all back -- that health care was wrong, we shouldn't have done dodd-frank, i want to actually lower tax rates, clear out crony capitalism and restore the constitution to its rightful place in american life.' that's what i would encourage him to say," quipped ryan.

obama to focus on future in state of the union speech

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as the clinton campaign turns its attention to south carolina, its drubbing in new hampshire suggests hillary clinton's feminist credentials simply don't appeal to young women. explaining hillary clinton has long been a thriving subculture in american punditry. after new hampshire, there<u+2019>s a new wrinkle: why are young women abandoning her? as a wellesley college student in the late 1960s, hillary rodham exemplified a brash new model of the young woman activist. her unscripted graduation speech blasting the commencement speaker <u+2013> her former mentor and lone black united states senator, edward brooke <u+2013> drew national attention. but this week, clinton lost most of the women's vote in her 22-point defeat to sen. bernie sanders, a rival she once led by 40 points in the polls, and the losses cut deepest among young women. <u+201c>she just doesn<u+2019>t seem as extremely truthful,<u+201d> says tayla schipilliti, a bridal consultant and student at nashua community college, after voting in merrimack, n.h. evidence for this view includes <u+201c>the whole e-mail thing,<u+201d> the videos circulating on social media sites that challenge clinton<u+2019>s claim to have landed in bosnia in 1996 under sniper fire, and stories ms. schipilliti's parents told her about how the clintons treated people, she says. like many in the first-in-the-nation primary, she tried to follow the race, including attending candidate events at her college and watching campaign videos on line. "personally i obviously support equal pay for woman and all that, but just because that<u+2019>s her main stance and she<u+2019>s a woman i don<u+2019>t feel that i have to vote for her. so i ended up voting for bernie,<u+201d> she says. new hampshire exit polls show clinton coming up short in virtually every demographic group, except for voters over the age of 65 or with incomes over $200,000. it's important to note, also, that there are too few nonwhite voters in new hampshire to register in the exit polls <u+2013> a demographic that will be much more a factor in the next primary votes in south carolina, nevada, and march 1 super primary states across the south. she is also on the losing slope of a 35-point gender gap with men and a 10 percent gap with women in tuesday<u+2019>s returns. on primary day, 55 percent of women voted for sanders, including 69 percent of women under 45. voters give clinton high marks on leadership qualities (54 percent), experience (84 percent), and electability (79 percent), but few think that she cares about people like them (17 percent). while nearly 9 in 10 who voted in the democratic primary say that sanders is honest and trustworthy, less than half say the same for clinton. two-thirds of voters said they preferred sanders's positions on the issues to hers. polling on the eve of the vote shows an even stronger disaffection for clinton among the youngest voters. among women age 18 to 34, sanders led clinton 87 to 9 percent, according to final tracking polls. that antipathy, fed by social media, may extend to girls below the voting age, as well, if this encounter is any indication: commenting on the election results, vana rizos, a waitress in brookline, n.h., pulls out her cell phone to replay a video of her mother, rika, walking into a voting booth on tuesday. in the video, her daughter, krysele <u+2013> who is 14 and holding the camera <u+2013> calls out to ask who she will vote for. at the answer <u+2013><u+201c>hillary clinton, of course!<u+201d> <u+2013> the girl groans and stops recording. so, why the groan?<u+00a0><u+201c>she thinks that bernie is authentic and hillary is fake, because she always travels with a big entourage,<u+201d> said vana rizos, her mother. both the clinton campaign and many commentators were slow to appreciate how faintly clinton<u+2019>s persona as a champion of women<u+2019>s rights would register with younger voters. one reason is that the electorate has changed since clinton won the new hampshire presidential primary in 2008, and young women don't have the same points of reference as clinton's generation. <u+201c>new hampshire is a different state that it was in 2008,<u+201d> says andrew smith, director of the survey center at the university of new hampshire in durham.<u+00a0> <u+201c>younger voters have a very different set of experiences that affect their political world than we have.<u+201d> <u+201c>women under 35 probably have had women professors and bosses," he adds. "they haven<u+2019>t had the experiences that their mothers and grandmothers did. that<u+2019>s why feminist messages just don<u+2019>t resonate with younger voters.<u+201d> by contrast, sanders is talking about issues that resonate, <u+201c>such as not having a job or not making the money you wanted to, or living in your parents<u+2019> basement,<u+201d> he says. a similar assumption that doesn't pass generational muster is that americans couldn<u+2019>t possibly vote for a socialist. <u+201c>those that are my age know it<u+2019>s a political death knell,<u+201d> he adds. <u+201c>but there is a significant part of the electorate who weren<u+2019>t born when the berlin wall came down. younger voters see socialism as their trip to denmark or sweden or paris.<u+201d> feminist icon gloria steinem had to walk back<u+00a0> a comment on hbo<u+2019>s <u+201c>real time with bill maher<u+201d><u+00a0>that young women back sanders over clinton because <u+201c>that<u+2019>s where the boys are.<u+201d> a comment by former secretary of state madeleine albright, at a rally with clinton on saturday, that <u+201c>there<u+2019>s a special place in hell for women who don<u+2019>t support women,<u+201d> also fell flat among young women voters drawn to the promise of a social movement. they were not only annoyed at being scolded, but affronted by the idea they have to vote for clinton just because she's a woman. during the democratic debate on pbs thursday night, clinton shrugged off ms. albright's comment, saying, "she's been saying that for as long as i've known her." clinton said she has "no argument with anyone making up her mind about who to support. i just hope by the end of this campaign a lot more are supporting me.... i am not asking people to support me because i'm a woman," but "because i think i'm the most qualified, experienced, and ready person to be the president and commander-in-chief." in<u+00a0> an essay in slate<u+00a0>after the new hampshire vote, cultural critic camille paglia maintains that one thing that's driving young women to sanders is clinton's "over-use of 'i' in the current campaign, in contrast to bernie sanders's ego-transcending focus on sparking a populist movement of political reform." lost in the new hampshire outcome is the fact that clinton still has a core of supporters, especially among nonwhite voters, who credit her record as an activist. a get-out-the-vote rally for clinton at nashua community college last week was packed with supporters waving <u+201c>nea democrats for hillary,<u+201d> a reference to the largest national teachers union, which has long done much of the legwork in democratic campaigns. <u+201c>she<u+2019>s been secretary of state. how could you think someone like that wouldn<u+2019>t be a good president<u+201d> says faith little, an online instructor of social work at boston university. commenting on all the support for sanders among students, she adds: <u+201c>she<u+2019>s being realistic about what she can deliver.<u+201d> clinton also has the support of much of the party establishment. she has been campaigning in new hampshire primaries since 1991, not only in the four clinton presidential races (1992, 1996, 2008, 2016), but also to help other democrats. in the process, she earned the gratitude of many democrats here, <u+00a0>including us sen. jeanne shaheen and new hampshire gov. maggie hassan,<u+00a0>who is running in a tight race to oust sen. kelly ayotte (r). critics say that establishment support doesn't count for much in what is an election defined by anger against the establishment. the support of a governor and us senator did little to avert a clinton defeat in new hampshire, but it is firing up controversy in the wake of that vote. here's the issue: governor hassan, senator shaheen and four other <u+201c>superdelegates<u+201d> are now pledged to support clinton at the democratic national convention in philadelphia in july. despite her blowout loss to sanders, clinton could wind up with as many or more new hampshire delegates than sanders in philadelphia. if social networking buzz is any indication, the issue is opening a new intergenerational fracture between clinton and younger voters, who see the move as part of a rigged political system <u+2013> a leading sanders talking point. in a statement after the vote, hassan reached out to sanders voters. <u+201c>no matter what the ultimate outcome of the nominating process, senator sanders has importantly voiced the frustration of many granite staters who know corporate special interests in washington are holding our families and small businesses back,<u+201d> she said in a statement.

how hillary clinton lost young (white) women

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2015 has been an eventful year for barack obama. he made a<u+00a0>historic nuclear deal with iran, two of his supreme court appointees voted to<u+00a0>legalize same-sex marriage nationwide, he's<u+00a0>fought with the left to advance his trade agenda, and<u+00a0>he gave a speech on race and gun violence that was hailed as the best of his presidency. and none of that has caused his approval rating to budge in the slightest, as you can see in this huffpost pollster chart: the full trend of obama's approval throughout his presidency,<u+00a0>which you can see here, has had many more ups and downs. this year's rating of 45 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval is mediocre historically, as you can<u+00a0>see over at gallup (it tops george w. bush and harry truman's seventh-year approval, but is well behind bill clinton and dwight eisenhower's and slightly behind ronald reagan's). obama's rating is slightly better than it was last year, when it was<u+00a0>similarly steady at about 43 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval. but the broader change<u+00a0>some expected would result from improving economic news isn't evident yet. political scientist<u+00a0>alan abramowitz has argued that unless obama's approval makes it back up to 50 percent, the democrat who's running to succeed him should be considered a narrow underdog. he<u+00a0>predicted that obama's current approval rating of 45 percent would likely result in the democratic nominee getting 49 percent of the two-party vote share, and therefore losing. now, elections aren't simply a referendum on presidential approval (abramowitz's own "time for a change" model also incorporates gdp growth). and of course, it's possible that future news events could change obama's approval rating. but all such news events this year have, so far, failed to do so.

president obama has had an eventful year. his approval rating hasn't budged.

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after months of looking like bit players in the republican presidential race, governors chris christie, john kasich and former governor jeb bush all delivered their strongest debate performances yet saturday night in new hampshire. but the object of their attacks was not donald trump, the irascible billionaire who maintains a double-digit lead in the primary state. instead, they focused their fire on marco rubio, turning his aggressively rehearsed talking points against him and exposing the vacuity of his campaign in a series of devastating exchanges that threaten to blunt his recent momentum. rubio has long faced criticism for his robotic approach on the campaign trail, where he regularly reproduces the same practiced phrases. there is something to be said for staying on message, especially when that message appears to be working. but the florida senator<u+2019>s reliance on pre-scripted lines backfired dramatically when christie called him out for using the same line twice, and rubio responded, like a broken record, by repeating it again and again. <u+201c>let's dispel once and for all with this fiction that barack obama doesn't know what he's doing. he knows exactly what he's doing,<u+201d> rubio said early in the debate, arguing that obama, far from being incompetent, was actually engaged in a <u+201c>systematic effort to change america,<u+201d> and that he would do a better job a president. christie ripped the answer, calling rubio inexperienced and drawing applause for accusing him of <u+201c>truancy<u+201d> in the senate. rubio shot back that new jersey<u+2019>s credit rating had been downgraded nine times under christie. then, inexplicably, he repeated his previous answer: <u+201c>but i would add this. let's dispel with this fiction that barack obama doesn't know what he's doing. he knows exactly what he's doing.<u+201d> christie pounced. <u+201c>that's what washington, d.c., does,<u+201d> he said, deconstructing the rubio machine in real-time. <u+201c>the drive-by shot at the beginning with incorrect and incomplete information and then the memorized 25-second speech that is exactly what his advisers gave him.<u+201d> the crowd went wild as christie twisted the knife: <u+201c>see marco<u+2014>marco, the thing is this. when you're president of the united states, when you're a governor of a state, the memorized 30-second speech where you talk about how great america is at the end of it doesn't solve one problem for one person.<u+201d> rubio appeared to panic, almost immediately returning to the same line a third time: <u+201c>here's the bottom line. this notion that barack obama doesn't know what he's doing is just not true. he knows exactly what he's doing.<u+201d> <u+201c>there it is,<u+201d> christie interjected. <u+201c>the memorized 25-second speech. there it is, everybody.<u+201d> rubio, unsure how to respond, went for round four: <u+201c>i think this is an important point. we have to understand what we're going through here. we are not facing a president that doesn't know what he's doing. he knows what he is doing.<u+201d> christie quipped that he <u+201c>gets very unruly when he gets off his talking points,<u+201d> but that didn<u+2019>t stop rubio from repeating the line a fifth time before the debate ended. <u+201c>i think anyone who believes that barack obama isn't doing what he's doing on purpose doesn't understand what we're dealing with here,<u+201d> he said, apparently still rattled. <u+201c>this is a president<u+2014>this is a president who is trying to change this country.<u+201d> it was a bizarre performance for the freshman senator, who has soared to second in the polls in new hampshire after a surprisingly strong third-place finish in the iowa caucuses last week. in the last several days, the republican establishment has rallied to rubio<u+2019>s side, seeing him as the sole candidate capable of mounting a credible challenge to trump and ted cruz, both of whom are considered unelectable by many party leaders. but with the new hampshire primary just days away, the confidence-shattering exchange could derail rubio<u+2019>s shot at holding on to his second-place position, creating an opening for christie, kasich, or bush to pull ahead and prolonging an already damaging intra-party fight to consolidate the crowded establishment lane. rubio wasn<u+2019>t the only one to come under attack saturday night. in what is certainly a first in the history of presidential debates, donald trump lashed out at the audience after he was booed for trying to shush jeb bush. <u+201c>that<u+2019>s all of his donors and special interests out there,<u+201d> he said, like a stand-up comedian taking on a heckler. <u+201c>that<u+2019>s who it is,<u+201d> he continued, as the crowd grew louder. <u+201c>the r.n.c. told us. we have all donors in the audience. and the reason they<u+2019>re not loving me <u+2026> excuse me. the reason they<u+2019>re not loving me is, i don<u+2019>t want their money. i<u+2019>m going to do the right thing for the american public. i don<u+2019>t want their money. i don<u+2019>t need their money. and i<u+2019>m the only one up here that can say that.<u+201d>

marco rubio short-circuits during g.o.p. debate

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alabama began issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples monday, despite an 11th-hour attempt from the state's chief justice -- an outspoken opponent -- to block the weddings. the u.s. supreme court said monday morning that it wouldn't stop the marriages from beginning in the state, and shortly after, jefferson county probate judge alan king issued several licenses. he did so despite chief justice roy moore's sunday night order to all probate judges, directing them to refuse to issue the licenses. one of the licenses went to dee and laura bush, who have been together for seven years and have five kids between them. "it is great that we were able to be part of history," said dee bush. after receiving her license, she and laura walked outside to a park where a minister was performing wedding ceremonies to cheers from crowds. by issuing licenses, king says he was abiding by the federal court order from january that determined alabama's statutory and constitutional bans on gay marriage were unconstitutional. u.s. district judge callie granade had put her order on hold until monday to let the state prepare for the change. the state attorney general has requested that the hold be extended, but the u.s. supreme court refused to do so. moore's order to probate judges was a dramatic return to defiance for the chief justice. he was removed from the post in 2003 for refusing to obey a federal court order to remove a washing machine-sized ten commandments from the state judicial building. critics lashed out that moore had no authority to tell county probate judges to enforce a law that a federal judge already ruled unconstitutional. he's been one of the state's most outspoken critics of gay marriage; in 2002 he called homosexuality an "evil" in a custody ruling. "this is a pathetic, last-ditch attempt at judicial fiat by an alabama supreme court justice--a man who should respect the rule of law rather than advance his personal beliefs," said sarah warbelow, legal director of the human rights campaign.

alabama begins issuing marriage licenses to gay couples

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russian state media reported that many of the 217 passengers on kogalymavia flight 9268 were russians returning from vacation. the passenger manifest included 17 children but russian officials said there were 25 aboard. there were seven crew members. ukrainian foreign minister pavlo klimkin tweeted that four victims were ukrainian nationals. the cause of the crash still is unknown, but it is most likely due to a technical failure, and there is no evidence of any terrorist action, egyptian airports co. chief adel al-mahjoob told cnn arabic. an egyptian soldier prays as emergency workers prepare to unload bodies of victims at a military airport north of suez, egypt, on october 31. an egyptian soldier prays as emergency workers prepare to unload bodies of victims at a military airport north of suez, egypt, on october 31. journalists and spectators wait for ambulances to arrive at the zeinhom morgue in cairo on october 31. journalists and spectators wait for ambulances to arrive at the zeinhom morgue in cairo on october 31. employees with the russian ministry for emergency situations wait in moscow for their flight to egypt on october 31. employees with the russian ministry for emergency situations wait in moscow for their flight to egypt on october 31. people light candles and leave flowers at the russian embassy in kiev, ukraine, on october 31. people light candles and leave flowers at the russian embassy in kiev, ukraine, on october 31. villagers watch an ambulance as it drives to unload bodies on october 31. villagers watch an ambulance as it drives to unload bodies on october 31. the tail of the jet sits in a field on october 31. the tail of the jet sits in a field on october 31. an item of clothing lies at the site where the plane crashed on october 31. an item of clothing lies at the site where the plane crashed on october 31. ismail, center, and other officials visit the site of the plane crash on october 31. ismail, center, and other officials visit the site of the plane crash on october 31. egyptian prime minister sherif ismail, third from right, visits the site of the plane crash with military and government officials on october 31. egyptian prime minister sherif ismail, third from right, visits the site of the plane crash with military and government officials on october 31. egyptian paramedics load the bodies of victims into a military plane at a military air base by the suez canal on saturday, october 31. egyptian paramedics load the bodies of victims into a military plane at a military air base by the suez canal on saturday, october 31. people place flowers and messages in front of the russian embassy in cairo on november 1. people place flowers and messages in front of the russian embassy in cairo on november 1. candles, toys, flowers and portraits are left at pulkovo international airport outside st. petersburg on november 1. candles, toys, flowers and portraits are left at pulkovo international airport outside st. petersburg on november 1. debris from the airliner is seen on november 1. debris from the airliner is seen on november 1. more debris is shown on november 1. the crash site is in a remote area of a region plagued by a violent islamic insurgency. more debris is shown on november 1. the crash site is in a remote area of a region plagued by a violent islamic insurgency. debris belonging to the russian airliner is shown at the site of the crash on november 1. debris belonging to the russian airliner is shown at the site of the crash on november 1. egyptian army soldiers guard the luggage and other belongings of passengers piled up at the site of the crash on november 1. egyptian army soldiers guard the luggage and other belongings of passengers piled up at the site of the crash on november 1. a piece of the engine sits on the ground at the crash site on november 1. a piece of the engine sits on the ground at the crash site on november 1. egyptian military personnel stand near the tail of the jet in hassana on sunday, november 1. egyptian military personnel stand near the tail of the jet in hassana on sunday, november 1. russian emergency personnel collect personal belongings of victims at the crash site in hassana, egypt, on november 2. russian emergency personnel collect personal belongings of victims at the crash site in hassana, egypt, on november 2. people visit a makeshift memorial at the airport in st. petersburg on november 3. people visit a makeshift memorial at the airport in st. petersburg on november 3. the wreckage of flight 9268 is seen in this image provided on tuesday, november 3. the wreckage of flight 9268 is seen in this image provided on tuesday, november 3. the militant group isis published this image of what it claims is the bomb that brought down metrojet flight 9268 on saturday, october 31. the photograph shows a soft-drink can and two components that appear to be a detonator and a switch. flight 9268 crashed in egypt's sinai peninsula en route to the russian city of st. petersburg. all 224 people on board were killed. the airbus a321 had a routine check before flight, showing everything was ok to proceed, mahjoob said. the so-called black boxes -- the flight data recorder and voice data recorder -- have been recovered and transported to cairo for analysis, egyptian civil aviation minister hossam kamel said at a news conference. "there was nothing abnormal before the plane crash," he said. "it suddenly disappeared from the radar." air traffic control recordings did not show any distress calls, kamel said. the plane departed the red sea resort of sharm el-sheikh, near the southern tip of the sinai, on a flight to st. petersburg, russia. it vanished from radar 23 minutes into the flight, at 6:20 a.m. local time. egypt has been battling insurgents in the sinai aligned with the terrorist group isis. islamists militants in the sinai linked to isis claimed responsibility for the crash, according to an online statement. but russian transport minister maxim sokolov said the claim that terrorists brought down the plane by using an anti-aircraft missile "cannot be considered reliable," according to russian state news agency ria novosti. german air carrier lufthansa and air france have decided to reroute aircraft due to fly over the region. "we will keep that measure in place as long as we are not sure of the circumstances and the reasons of the metrojet crash," lufthansa spokeswoman bettina rittberger said. at 2 a.m. sunday, russians were still going by pulkovo airport in st. petersburg, dropping off red or white carnations and stuffed toys for children. a table held a dozen candles. many of the mourners silently paused in front of the memorial before leaving. inside the airport, psychologists were available for family members. some of the relatives were waiting for the bodies of their loved ones to be returned. officials said that would begin later sunday. about 115 people had given dna samples to help identify the dead. among the significant, if preliminary, pieces of information to emerge saturday were these: <u+2022> the plane was flying above 30,000 feet when it disappeared from radar screens, the egyptian civil aviation ministry said. <u+2022> russia 24, a state-owned news channel, and other russian media outlets are saying the pilot reported technical problems and requested a landing at the nearest airport before the plane went missing. officials have not corroborated those reports. <u+2022> russia 24 also quotes the flightradar 24 website as saying the plane was descending at a rate of 1,800 meters per minute, or 67 mph, before radar contact was lost. <u+2022> weather in the area was clear, cnn reported. <u+2022> the plane was kogalymavia flight 9268. the airline is commonly known as metrojet. <u+2022> the crash site is in the northern part of sinai, near a town called housna -- 300 kilometers (185 miles) from sharm el-sheikh, the egyptian prime minister's office said. <u+2022> the site is reported to be in a mountainous area. still, egyptian rescue crews made their way there, and officials said 129 bodies have been found and are being flown to cairo. ambulances have so far moved 34 bodies to the official zeinhom morgue and other hospitals in the egyptian capital. egyptian prime minister sherif ismail met with ministers and security officials as the cause of the crash remained a mystery. the most dangerous parts of any flight are the takeoff and landing; it is unusual for a plane to fall from the sky at cruising altitude. russian president vladimir putin ordered prime minister dmitry medvedev to open an investigation into the crash, the kremlin said. and putin declared an official day of mourning sunday for the victims. egyptian president abdel fattah el-sisi called putin to express his condolences, according to the kremlin. sisi "assured mr. putin that conditions will be created for the broadest possible participation of russian experts in the investigation of the plane crash," the kremlin statement said. u.s. secretary of state john kerry spoke to russian foreign minister sergey lavrov to express his condolences and offer american assistance if needed, according to the state department. the russian emergency ministry said it was sending five planes to the area to help with possible rescues and the investigation. and russia opened a hotline for relatives, many of whom gathered at the airport in st. petersburg, where they had expected their loved ones to arrive. about 115 relatives have given dna samples to help identify the victims. at a st. petersburg airport terminal, a makeshift shrine was set up for those who perished, with roses, candles and stuffed animals. airbus, the plane's maker, issued a statement on twitter: "we are aware of the media reports," the tweet reads. "efforts are now going towards assessing the situation. we'll provide more information as soon as available."

russian plane crash in sinai: all 224 on board killed

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the chances of donald trump becoming the republican nominee for president have gone from impossible to probable, while hillary clinton<u+2019>s chances of being the democrat have moved from likely to virtually certain. so, barring more surprises, it<u+2019>s probably going to be hillary vs. the donald in the fall. there is no mystery about clinton. those who support her as well as those who oppose her have little trouble explaining why. trump is another matter. no one i know would even consider voting for trump. so who are all these millions who support him? why, they are working-class white men, we are told, who feel betrayed by the failure of both parties to deal with stagnant incomes, growing debts and shrinking possibilities for their retirements and their childrens<u+2019> futures. it<u+2019>s a plausible theory. and it may help to explain bernie sanders. but no one has ever associated trump with these blue-collar issues. how has he become the tribune of the people in this election? is he just the one who got there first? the explanation is not so difficult. in the opening paragraph of his novel <u+201c>ravelstein,<u+201d> saul bellow writes, <u+201c>anyone who wants to govern the country has to entertain it.<u+201d> clinton has been called many things, but <u+201c>entertaining<u+201d> is not one of them. this is not the case with trump, who is an authentic american character like something out of mark twain. all the other candidates except sanders had the character squeezed out of them when they decided they wanted to be president. trump<u+2019>s a phony of course (not to mention a racist), but his phoniness is authentic. he<u+2019>s self-made <u+2014> not in the financial sense, but characterologically. and what a character! you always want to know what he will say or do next. to be sure, it<u+2019>s not really the president<u+2019>s job to keep the citizenry entertained, although voting on the basis of entertainment value is not entirely irrational, given that entertainment is the main benefit you<u+2019>re likely to get from our political system. anyway, not knowing what he<u+2019>ll do next does have its charms, and they go beyond entertainment. during the nuclear standoff of the 1960s and 1970s, richard nixon and henry kissinger took advantage of a doctrine out of the branch of economics known as game theory, which holds that sometimes it pays to be <u+2014> or at least to be perceived to be <u+2014> crazy. no rational person would ever start a nuclear war. so the one who can get the other side to back down in any future nuclear standoff is the one who convinces the world that he or she is more irrational. vladimir putin has done a pretty good job here, you have to admit. imagine putin and any of the american presidential candidates facing each other across the nuclear divide, each threatening to push the button unless their demands are met. which of the americans is crazy enough to actually do it? when barack obama proposes something, you know it<u+2019>s been analyzed and balanced and weighed against the alternatives, tested in the laboratory and found to be a reasonable solution given the limitations and under the circumstances. when trump faces some similar challenge, you don<u+2019>t know what he<u+2019>s going to say or do. and if he says he<u+2019>s going to do something crazy, like get the mexicans to pay for a wall across their own country to keep themselves out of ours, you can<u+2019>t be sure he won<u+2019>t actually try to do it. it<u+2019>s clear now that the title of trump<u+2019>s book <u+201c>the art of the deal <u+201d> actually reflects a philosophy of life: trump believes that everything in life is a negotiation, a deal, and he believes that making deals uses skills that he has and his rivals lack. this is why he may even have been sincere in his puzzlement about why the media has been so insistent that he reveal his tax returns. paying taxes, like so much else in life, is a negotiation <u+2014> at least at trump<u+2019>s level. and why would you give your opponent a major document, whether it reveals misbehavior or not? what is misbehavior, for that matter? it<u+2019>s all up for negotiation. people (read: liberals) are afraid of what trump might do as president. all this silly talk about moving to canada. but the thing to really worry about in a trump presidency is what happens a couple of years from now, when people who have invested their hopes in trump and his magic tricks discover that he is not the wizard of oz but rather the man behind the curtain.

what do voters see in trump? his authentic phoniness.

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argentine president mauricio macri's office rebutting a report from an argentinian journalist that set off waves in the american media.

how common core quietly won the war

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the 62-38 vote to end debate on the bill, moving it toward a final vote, was a victory for obama, who had linked with senate majority leader mitch mcconnell, r-kentucky, to push the bill despite opposition from senate democratic leaders. "this last vote was a major step forward on this important legislation," said utah sen. orrin hatch, a republican who sponsored the bill. the senate is now set to vote on changes to the bill, including one that would force the obama administration to use trade deals to crack down on countries that manipulate the value of their currencies to give their exports a price advantage in the united states <u+2014> an amendment the white house opposes because it would add a huge new complication into trade negotiations. even though senate passage is ultimately now much more likely, the house could be tougher. there, tea party conservatives are linking up with liberals to form a broader populist opposition than what existed in the senate. the measure would hand the president six years' worth of "trade promotion authority" <u+2014> the power to submit trade deals to congress for an up-or-down vote with limited debate and no amendments. it's considered crucial to finalizing the 12-country trans-pacific partnership, a massive trade deal that serves as the economic underpinning of obama's "asia pivot." it would link 40% of the world's economy, including the united states, japan, australia, canada and mexico. the trade deal has launched an obscure commerce policy discussion into a fiery political battle that has positioned the president at odds with most of his party, particularly sen. elizabeth warren of massachusetts, and driven a wedge between the democratic presidential front-runner, hillary clinton, and her primary challengers. the senate is also looking to dispense with the trade votes to move forward and take up bills to reform or reauthorize the patriot act, an issue that considers to deeply divide the senate and republicans on capitol hill. the house overwhelmingly passed the usa freedom act, a bipartisan bill to reform the patriot act and effectively end the national security agency's bulk collection of phone data on millions of americans. and while that bill was the result of a compromise between reform advocates and house republican leadership, the bill is facing tough opposition in the senate from powerful republicans like mcconnell, though the majority leader has vowed to allow a vote on the reform measure. he is pushing a competing bill to reauthorize the expiring patriot act provisions without any reforms.

trade bill clears senate hurdle

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donald trump<u+2019>s campaign is planning to drop up to $10 million on its biggest ad buy to date, hammering democratic rival hillary clinton on her economic proposals in a slew of battleground states. the republican nominee is trying to make up for lost time in the ad wars, after being significantly outspent by clinton on that front over the summer. but he<u+2019>s also kept an active campaign schedule over the past week as his democratic opponent mostly has stayed off the trail. with its latest ad buy, the trump campaign plans to cover nine battleground states. they are: ohio, pennsylvania, north carolina and florida, where the campaign has already been on the air, along with new hampshire, virginia, iowa, colorado and nevada. his campaign<u+2019>s second general election ad, unveiled monday, hits clinton on economic issues, claiming the middle-class would be <u+201c>crushed<u+201d> under a clinton presidency amid tax increases and more spending. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s more of the same, but worse,<u+201d> the narrator says. <u+201c>in donald trump<u+2019>s america, working families get tax relief. millions of new jobs created. wages go up. <u+2026> change that makes america great again.<u+201d> trump has so far been badly outspent by clinton and groups supporting her. since clinching her party's nomination in early june, clinton has spent more than $77 million on television and radio advertising, largely targeting voters in battleground states, according to kantar media's political ad tracker. trump finally hit the airwaves earlier this month with his first ad, focused on immigration, and so far has only spent about $5 million. amid conflicting signals over his latest immigration platform, trump now says he<u+2019>ll deliver a detailed speech wednesday on his proposal to crack down on illegal immigration. the announcement came late sunday in a tweet by the republican presidential nominee after days of wavering -- and at least one canceled speech -- on a question central to his campaign: whether he would, as he said in november, use a "deportation force" to eject the estimated 11 million people in the u.s. illegally. trump's immigration speech in arizona will come after he and clinton spent last week trading accusations on racial issues. trump called clinton "a bigot;" clinton accused trump of allowing hate groups to take over the republican party. clinton is starting this week by announcing her proposals for dealing with mental health issues. she is stressing the need to fully integrate mental health services into the u.s. health care system. her plan stresses early diagnosis and intervention and calls for a national initiative for suicide prevention. <u+201c>donald trump<u+2019>s reckless approach to business has devastated working families and communities. he will do and say whatever is in his interest, even if it means swindling working families to make millions for himself," campaign deputy communications director christina reynolds said in a statement. "now trump is promising the same reckless, self-centered approach to running the country<u+2019>s economy <u+2013> with large tax breaks for the wealthy, and a plan that independent experts say would cost millions of jobs." late sunday, america's only african-american owned and operated national christian television network also announced that its president and ceo, bishop wayne t. jackson, would interview the republican nominee saturday in detroit. this comes as the republican<u+2019>s campaign vows the candidate, who has been appealing lately to minority voters for support, plans to go into african-american communities to seek their vote. the new investment in advertising comes amid signs that trump's lagging poll numbers may be improving against clinton's following a campaign reboot. trump senior communications adviser jason miller said in a statement that the billionaire businessman's "positive message of economic opportunity is working and we see the national and battleground state polls all moving in the right direction." "with hillary clinton off the campaign trail yet again this week and continuing to take many communities' votes for granted, we see this as the right time to show voters the benefits of an american economy under the leadership of mr. trump," he added. clinton will be spending much of the week in private fundraisers in the hamptons, the wealthy enclaves of eastern long island, new york. fox news<u+2019> nicholas kalman and the associated press contributed to this report.

trump makes biggest ad buy to date, hammers clinton on economy

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mcconnell said congress will not leave for the holidays until there's a deal.the senate and house earlier in the week passed a five-day extension, pushing the deadline for a final budget agreement to the middle of next week."we're certainly going to finish, both that and the tax bill," mcconnell told politico.former "daily show" host stewart targeted mcconnell during a guest appearance on his former show on monday. stewart also pushed for the legislation by impersonating gop presidential front-runner donald trump in bit on "the late show with stephen colbert."

mcconnell promises 9/11 first responders will get healthcare bill

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from the moment the hbo series <u+201c>the jinx<u+201d> made its debut, it has been called <u+201c>the new <u+2018>serial.'<u+201d> both the series and the podcast<u+00a0>are about unsolved murders. both let viewers into the process of uncovering what happened. both<u+00a0>tell stories so compelling, it<u+2019>s easy to sometimes forget the characters are real. but on saturday, hbo achieved something <u+201c>serial<u+201d> never could. the subject of its six-episode documentary<u+00a0><u+201c>the jinx: the life and deaths of robert durst<u+201d> has been arrested. robert durst, a new york real-estate heir, is known for his alleged connection to three deaths: his wife, who went missing in 1982; his neighbor, who was dismembered in<u+00a0>2001; and a close friend, who was shot<u+00a0>in the head in 2000.<u+00a0>until saturday, the 71-year-old has walked free. on march 8, hbo aired the fifth and penultimate episode of <u+201c>the jinx,<u+201d> which included a previously uncovered piece of evidence. on the eve of the finale, durst was arrested in new orleans in connection to the murder of his friend, susan berman, a little more than 14 years ago. sunday night, the final episode aired. in its closing minutes, durst says, <u+201c>what the hell did i do? killed them all, of course.<u+201d> he was not speaking to the camera and was seemingly unaware his words were being recorded <u+2014> but he had left his microphone on while using the bathroom. [<u+2018>the jinx<u+2019> director says he gave authorities the <u+2018>killed them all<u+2019> audio months ago] earlier in the day, durst<u+2019>s attorney, chip lewis, told the post: <u+201c>he<u+2019>s maintained his innocence for 10 years now. nothing has changed.<u+201d> it is unclear whether lewis knew about durst<u+2019>s bathroom comments, or whether the recording will be admissible in court. the attorney accused prosecutors and the documentary<u+2019>s director, andrew jarecki, of timing the arrest as a publicity stunt for the last episode. in january, jarecki all but promised tv critics and reporters that the <u+201c>the jinx<u+201d> would end with a satisfying conclusion <u+2014> something many thought <u+201c>serial<u+201d> lacked because host sarah koenig ended the podcast with no concrete theory. the widely publicized arrest and the audio of what could be interpreted as a confession surely fits the bar he set. durst has been a willing participant in the series that may have brought about<u+00a0>his downfall. he spent more than 20 hours in interviews with filmmaker jarecki, who has been researching durst<u+00a0>for eight years. jarecki<u+2019>s 2010 film <u+201c>all good things<u+201d> was a fictionalized version of the durst story, in which ryan gosling played a somewhat-empathetic<u+00a0>version of<u+00a0>a killer. in an interview with the los angeles times, jarecki said that durst came to him after seeing the film, admitting it made him cry three times. the two have been working together ever since, with durst agreeing to let jarecki ask any question. it wasn<u+2019>t a question that led to the arrest, however. in<u+00a0>an episode titled <u+201c>family values,<u+201d> the filmmakers<u+00a0>met with<u+00a0>the stepson of berman, durst<u+2019>s friend who was found dead on christmas eve, 2000. police were led to her body by a letter that told them of a <u+201c>cadaver<u+201d> at her address. that<u+00a0>letter was addressed<u+00a0><u+201c>beverley hills police<u+201d> in block letters. beverly is misspelled. at the end of episode five, berman<u+2019>s stepson shows the filmmakers a<u+00a0>letter from durst to berman from the march before she was murdered. on the envelope, durst wrote berman<u+2019>s address in block letters. he spelled <u+201c>beverly<u+201d> as <u+201c>beverley.<u+201d> durst had known berman, a writer and daughter of a known las vegas mobster, since they met at the university of california in the 1960s. when durst<u+2019>s wife kathie went missing in from their house in new york in 1982, berman asserted<u+00a0>durst<u+2019>s innocence to the media. in the series, jarecki seems to be hinting that berman helped<u+00a0>durst hide kathie<u+2019>s body. he asks durst about his habit of making collect calls to his family company, the durst organization. soon after kathie went missing, a number of collect calls were made to the company from an area known as the pine barrens in new jersey. this heavily-wooded land had the reputation of being a dumping ground for the bodies of mafia victims. <u+201c>and what connection is that?<u+201d> asks kevin hynes, the assistant district attorney on the case. <u+201c>well, susan berman who was very friendly with [durst] at the time, had a lot of connections and a lot of friends in organized crime.<u+201d> the filmmakers take you to the places durst might have been, like the pine barrens, and what they can<u+2019>t show you live footage of, they recreate. durst appears on screen to rebut theories and allegations. wearing a grey cable sweater and khaki pants, he nearly always speaks calmly, like an eccentric 71-year-old man recounting an old story, not<u+00a0>a<u+00a0>man from one of the richest families in new york trying to convince you he<u+2019>s not a triple-murderer. until the final episode, durst<u+00a0>has maintained in the series that he did not kill his wife and does not know where her body is. the camera crew had already packed up from the day<u+2019>s interviewing but the recorder kept rolling as durst went to the bathroom. it appears he was talking to himself, making comments that included: <u+201c>there it is, you<u+2019>re caught. you<u+2019>re right of course, but you can<u+2019>t imagine. arrest him. .<u+2009>.<u+2009>. what a disaster. .<u+2009>.<u+2009>.i<u+2019>m having difficulty with the question.<u+201d> then follows the <u+201c>i killed them all<u+201d> line. filmmakers told the new york times they didn<u+2019>t find the recording for more than two years. durst admitted to killing one of the three persons that <u+201c>them all<u+201d> could inlude: his<u+00a0>71-year-old neighbor, morris black. in 2001, durst was living in galveston, texas,<u+00a0>dressing as a female to avoid media attention about the reopened investigation of his wife<u+2019>s disappearance. he testified that his neighbor, who he was friends with for a time, sneaked into his apartment. when a scuffle occurred between the two men, durst shot his neighbor accidentally in self-defense. he then <u+201c>panicked,<u+201d> cut up the body with a bow saw and dumped it into<u+00a0>galveston bay. black<u+2019>s<u+00a0>head was never found. after four days of deliberation, the jury acquitted durst. judge susan criss, who oversaw the galveston trial, told the post sunday she could not be more thrilled that durst was arrested. <u+201c>presiding over that trial was like watching a slow train wreck. the prosecution dropped the ball every step of the way and the defense came prepared,<u+201d> criss said. durst was eerily calm, the judge said, and there were times when he even seemed charming. she thinks<u+00a0>she was dealing with an exceptionally cunning serial killer, a man made all the more dangerous by his financial resources. <u+201c>i saw the pictures of the cut up body,<u+201d> she said. <u+201c>that body was cut up like it had been done by a surgeon. he knew what sort of tool to use for this bone and that muscle. it would have been impossible for someone to do that if it was their first murder attempt. that is a cold, calculating act.<u+201d> the durst organization, his family<u+2019>s prominent real estate company, also applauded the arrest. in a statement to cnbc, durst<u+2019>s brother douglas said, <u+201c>we are relieved and also grateful to everyone who assisted in the arrest of robert durst. we hope he will finally be held accountable for all he has done.<u+201d> durst has been estranged from his family for years: when his father cut him out of the line of succession for the family<u+2019>s real estate empire in 1994, durst is said to have urinated in his uncle<u+2019>s waste basket. his penchant for theatrics might be what drove durst to allow <u+2014> and assist <u+2014> <u+00a0>jarecki<u+00a0>in publicly dissecting his life. <u+201c>he has a compulsion to tell his story, and frankly i think he enjoys the feeling of being at risk,<u+201d> the filmmaker told the los angeles times in february. <u+201c>he knows that this is a very live ball, that he hasn<u+2019>t been prosecuted for two of the three murders that he<u+2019>s been accused of.<u+201d> <u+201c>we simply cannot say enough about the brilliant job that andrew jarecki and [producer] marc smerling did in producing the jinx,<u+201d> hbo said in a statement. <u+201c>years in the making, their thorough research and dogged reporting reignited interest in robert durst<u+2019>s story with the public and law enforcement.<u+201d> coincidence or not, there<u+2019>s no doubt the timing of durst<u+2019>s arrest will lead<u+00a0>to a surge in viewers for <u+201c>the jinx.<u+201d> the accused himself,<u+00a0>meanwhile, will be sitting in a new orleans jail cell or on his way back to california to face the murder charge. <u+201c>we<u+2019>ll saddle up and head west,<u+201d> durst<u+2019>s lawyer said. <u+201c>and handle this one just like we did this last one.<u+201d>

robert durst on hbo<u+2019>s <u+2018>the jinx': i <u+2018>killed them all.<u+2019>

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donald trump is not ruling out a run for president as an independent if things go south for the front-runner in the republican race. "i'm going to have to see what happens," he told george stephanopoulos in an interview that aired sunday on abc's "this week." "i will see what happens. i have to be treated fairly." trump was responding to a wall street journal report<u+00a0>that<u+00a0>republican operatives are considering banding<u+00a0>together<u+00a0>donors from the other gop campaigns in a bid to knock<u+00a0>trump off the top spot. their efforts are taking on increased urgency as the first-in-the-nation feb. 1 iowa caucuses near and trump leads the crowded gop field for the fourth consecutive month, according to a new national washington post-abc news poll. some candidates, including ohio gov. john kasich and former florida governor jeb bush, also are showing more willingness lately to directly attack trump. on sunday, trump said his measure of whether he would support the eventual gop nominee is whether he is treated<u+00a0>"fairly" in the campaign, a line he often uses when talking about a third-party run. "when i did this, i said i have to be treated fairly," trump told stephanopoulos. "if i<u+2019>m treated fairly, i<u+2019>m fine. all i want to do is [have] a level playing field." trump has given competing signals throughout the campaign about whether he would run as a third-party candidate. he didn't raise his hand in the republican party's first presidential debate, in august, when moderators asked the candidates whether they would pledge to support the eventual gop nominee. but in september, trump signed a pledge saying he would support the eventual nominee <u+2014> instead of opposing him or her in a third-party run. if republican operatives succeed in knocking trump off his perch, their plan could backfire if he then runs as an independent. a july washington post-abc news poll found that in a hypothetical general election matchup between bush and democratic front-runner hillary clinton, clinton led 50 percent to 44 percent. but throw a<u+00a0>third-party trump run into the mix, and the poll found that he would tear support away bush and give clinton a 16-point lead.

trump again won<u+2019>t rule out a third-party run

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there is <u+2013> and perhaps there always will be <u+2013> a dedicated group of people who don<u+2019>t know hillary clinton personally, but nonetheless hate her. whether they are truly a <u+201c>vast rightwing conspiracy<u+201d> (as clinton called them in 1998) or just many in number and conservative in outlook, there<u+2019>s no arguing that they exist or that they continue to try to influence public opinion on the democratic nominee. but even if people consider themselves savvy enough to reject the strangest conspiracy theories (sample claims include that she is a mass-murderer, a closeted lesbian faking her 40-year marriage, a member of the illuminati and/or an agent of the devil himself), there seems little doubt that an undercurrent of hostility spanning decades has had an impact upon how she is viewed. clinton<u+2019>s unfavorability rating may not be as low as donald trump<u+2019>s, but in an election year which has frequently degenerated into name-calling, she has attracted invective from both the left and the right. polls have frequently cited the public view that she is not trusted, while trump has rallied his supporters with the <u+201c>crooked hillary<u+201d> epithet. her links to wall street, her missing emails and her supposed responsibility for the security failures that contributed to the attack on the benghazi consulate are the ostensible reasons for some deeply personal attacks in 2016. but the roots of hostility towards her go much deeper. craig shirley, a ronald reagan biographer and historian who spent decades as a conservative political consultant, said that, when hillary clinton arrived in washington dc as first lady, <u+201c>she came from little rock with a reputation already established<u+201d> as <u+201c>such a militant feminist, difficult to deal with<u+201d>. he noted that she faced hostility in arkansas politics and media when bill clinton was first elected governor, because she kept her maiden name.<u+201c>here she comes, the feminist from wellesley and yale,<u+201d> shirley explained of the supposedly prevailing attitude of the time, <u+201c>down to little rock and brings her attitudes with her<u+201d>. so by the time she arrived on the national stage in 1991, during bill clinton<u+2019>s presidential campaign, the then-still-mostly-male press corps already had an idea of who they understood hillary clinton to be <u+2013> a potential liability to her husband<u+2019>s political career whose feminism and ambition were a bit unseemly. and, as she noted in her first autobiography, she gave them plenty of material with which to support that narrative. first, there was her much-maligned <u+201c>i<u+2019>m not sitting here some little woman standing by my man like tammy wynette<u+201d> comment in response to a reporter<u+2019>s assertion that she and her husband had <u+201c>some sort of understanding and arrangement<u+201d> about his infidelity. then, her out-of-context <u+201c>i suppose i could have stayed home and baked cookies<u+201d> comment, which came in response to attacks, which the clintons denied, by now-california governor jerry brown that she had only been a successful lawyer because her husband had steered business to her firm, implying that she should have confined herself to being a ceremonial first lady. and then, of course, came the scandals in which she was involved: whitewater, a money-losing land deal in which she<u+2019>d invested for their retirement with two friends who managed the investment illegally; and travelgate, in which she <u+2013> contrary to the then-normal practice of leaving the business of the white house to the president<u+2019>s staff <u+2013> was said to have ordered the firing of the head of the travel office, who coincidentally was popular with the mostly-male white house press corps whose travel he arranged. the key question raised about whitewater and travelgate was not whether clinton had done anything actually wrong, but whether she had used illegal means to try to keep the media from finding out. the starr investigation, which eventually resulted in bill clinton<u+2019>s impeachment, found that she had not, but by that time her reputation was established as someone unfriendly to the media who also maybe did not do the right thing. shirley conceded that <u+201c>the press pounded on her<u+201d> first in arkansas and then in washington, but did not believe that affected her relationship with the media, or that it was a driving factor in people<u+2019>s attitudes towards her. <u+201c>there<u+2019>s something about her manner, persona, voice, smirk that just grates on a lot of people,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>people don<u+2019>t like to be talked down to, and she has a terrible habit of talking down to people, with that smirk.<u+201d> however, elaine kamarck, a senior fellow at the brookings institution who served in bill clinton<u+2019>s administration, said she did not think that people<u+2019>s dislike of hillary clinton is her own fault. <u+201c>this business of people <u+2018>not liking<u+2019> her is shaped by expectations, by television, by what we think people in authority ought to look like, and not who she actually is,<u+201d> she said. <u+201c>she is absolutely as likable, or more likable, than many male politicians,<u+201d> she said. but while it is rare that people will compare a male politician they do not like to their fathers kamarck noted that clinton <u+201c>reminds people of their mothers, or the schoolteacher they didn<u+2019>t like.<u+201d> (references to a <u+201c>nagging wife<u+201d> and <u+201c>bitchy wife<u+201d> are also common.) <u+201c>i think there<u+2019>s some misogyny in that,<u+201d> said kamarck, noting that it<u+2019>s exceedingly common for men who don<u+2019>t hew to conventional standards of attractiveness to be on television or pursue political careers, while women are more likely to be granted that visibility when they are younger and if they meet traditional beauty standards. <u+201c>we will overcome this but, right now, the world is accustomed to saying old men are fine, they<u+2019>re strong, they<u+2019>re wise,<u+201d> she added. <u+201c>old women, we<u+2019>re not so sure.<u+201d>

why do people dislike hillary clinton? the story goes far back

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washington <u+0096> the remaining americans have been evacuated from the country of yemen. the united states closed its embassy because of the violence after a radical islamic rebellion in the country. the news comes as iran is expanding its influence in the middle east while building a nuclear program that shows no signs of stopping. yemen is an important part of iran's strategy. when a radical shiite muslim group, called the houthis, seized yemen's capital city last year, it marked a dangerous phase for a country plagued by violent chaos. located on the southern tip of the arabian peninsula, yemen is already home to an al qaeda branch that has attempted several attacks against the united states and europe. the rise of the houthis opens the door to yet another terrorist presence. "you look at the fall of the government of yemen, which was allied with the united states, helping us in our efforts to silence al qaeda. and you see the iranian quds forces behind training and arming that effort," rep. ed royce, r-calif., chairman of the house armed services committee, said. iran has long been suspected of backing the houthis, whose official slogan sounds very familiar to that of iran's government: "death to america, death to israel, damnation to the jews." iran's support of the houthis seems to point to a much a bigger goal. "that was not a local issue. yemen is a historical invasion route to saudi arabia. yemen controls the very critical access of oil tankers from the indian ocean to the red sea to the mediterranean," former israeli ambassador yoram ettinger explained. he said yemen is an important piece in iran's larger plan of regional domination. "iran is leveraging hezbollah in lebanon, hamas in gaza, in order to further destabilize the region, in order to destabilize pro-american arab regimes," ettinger said. in addition to lebanon and gaza, tehran is using allies to gain influence in yemen, syria, hezbollah, and among shiite leaders in iraq. these moves leave israel and another iranian rival, saudi arabia, in unfriendly surroundings. ettinger said the ultimate target, however, is the united states. "the iranians are pursuing a very clear anti-american tactic and the reason is they consider the u.s. the major obstacle to attaining their major goal: namely, the domination of the gulf," ettinger told cbn news. "no country in the world but the u.s. can stop iran from taking over the gulf and then the muslim world," he said. iran is reportedly working to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles that could one day reach the united states. yet the obama administration has not demanded that iran give up this missile program as part of ongoing nuclear talks. if iran acquires a nuclear bomb, it could eventually be mounted on such a missile. "that ultimately is going to open up a pandora's box of a whole new world situation that is going to very bad for the security of that whole region and ultimately, i think, the security of the entire world," rep. brian babin, r-texas, warned.

how yemen fits iran plans for mideast rule, beyond

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principal krystal hardy has dedicated herself to improving the culture and upping the test scores at a struggling new orleans charter school. her third-graders, for one, take 14 standardized tests, including common core ones, each year. third-grade students at sylvanie williams college prep elementary school read individually in class, on jan. 16, 2015, in new orleans. fifty percent of the children here started the academic year below grade level in reading and math. the goal is to help them catch up and keep making progress. this story is the third in a yearlong series following krystal hardy, a first-year principal trying to bring order and improve test scores at a struggling new orleans charter school. the project is a partnership between the christian science monitor and the hechinger report, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news outlet that covers inequality and innovation in education and is affiliated with teachers college, columbia university. a week before their final round of common core tests, the fifth-graders at sylvanie williams college prep, a charter school in new orleans, are reviewing the procedures for solving a multi-part word problem in math. their principal, krystal hardy, looks on. <u+201c>pay attention! i<u+2019>ve seen these kinds of questions on the parcc test,<u+201d> says math teacher tiffany labrie, referring to the common core tests that most students in louisiana take this month. <u+201c>this calls for converting ounces to pounds, so you can use your reference sheet,<u+201d> she tells them, indicating a handout on every desk. <u+201c>don<u+2019>t forget, you can use the reference sheet today, but also on the what?<u+201d> asks ms. labrie, rhetorically. <u+201c>parcc!<u+201d> echoes labrie. <u+201c>you<u+2019>ll have those reference sheets during the parcc tests. remember to use them!<u+201d> ms. hardy <u+2013> who is in her first year as principal <u+2013> has staked her career on improving the culture and upping the test scores at this struggling elementary school, located in a gritty part of new orleans' central city neighborhood. at the start of the academic year in august, 50 percent of the approximately 400 students, nearly all of whom are african-american and most of whom are poor, scored below grade level in reading and math. their road to improvement is paved with tests. indeed, like most public school students across america, pupils at sylvanie williams get tested often <u+2013> although hardy is trying to balance the <u+201c>data-driven instruction<u+201d> with a strong social justice curriculum. the earliest tests this year helped teachers figure out which students had learned the material and which ones needed that lesson again. after five months, hardy and her staff began diving deeper, comparing test results with worksheets that students completed in class. when they saw patterns of errors, the teachers themselves worked through the problems, trying to figure out exactly where the students were going wrong. their findings have already dramatically changed the way teachers teach. and the teachers are noticing that student achievement is picking up. <u+201c>we were able to administer targeted medicine,<u+201d> says hardy. <u+201c>instead of saying, <u+2018>some of these students aren<u+2019>t good at multiplying,<u+2019> <u+201d> she says, <u+201c>we could start to say, for example, that 40 percent of these students in this class don<u+2019>t seem to understand the place-value concept in three-digit numbers and about 40 percent, say, understand the concept but are not paying attention to details when they compute.<u+201d> students at sylvanie williams take annual tests in science and social studies aligned to the state<u+2019>s standards, plus two rounds of common core tests in english and math developed by the partnership for assessment of readiness for college and careers (parcc). in some grades, students also take three sets of benchmarking tests three or four times a year. in the end, third-graders, who get tested the most, take a whopping 14 standardized tests per year, in addition to <u+201c>exit tickets<u+201d> <u+2013> teacher-generated assessments at the end of a unit of study. testing infuses many aspects of the school day. the walls of hardy<u+2019>s office and the teachers<u+2019> conference room are hung with posters sporting bar charts that show test results. students and teachers talk about the test, the test day, and <u+201c>reaching basic.<u+201d> outside a third-grade classroom, a colorful hand-drawn poster names the children who have achieved the advanced, mastery, and basic levels on one test. in another classroom, a teacher has written out in magic marker a several-foot-long list of standards (4.nf.5: express equivalent fractions and add fractions with denominators of 10 and 100) <u+2013> presumably to keep his own teaching on target for the common core math test. although a vocal minority of parents whose children tend to be enrolled in more affluent schools around the country have refused to let their kids take the common core tests, no sylvanie williams families have opted out. and hardy is predicting the final round won<u+2019>t be a problem for her scholars. <u+201c>they<u+2019>re used to it,<u+201d> she says simply. early in the year, diagnostic test results helped distinguish what had been taught from what had been learned. hardy keeps a close eye on lesson plans <u+2013> teachers submit them to her each week <u+2013> so she knows what material is being covered. by january, armed with more data, hardy and her teachers and coaches were really poring over the test results. and that<u+2019>s when the dialogue around instruction began to shift. the teachers started collaborating on how to quickly and directly backfill the specific foundational skills that students need to move forward. <u+201c>after that point,<u+201d> says fourth-grade teacher terrance mitchell, <u+201c>i think as a school we really started to see the achievement of our students begin to accelerate.<u+201d> although hardy is committed to running a test-driven school, the data focus has its frustrations. because the common core exams are new this year, the parcc administrators need to perform technical calculations on the results. this means that scores on the tests will be released to hardy after sylvanie williams<u+2019>s school year ends <u+2013> too late for teachers to use that data to course-correct. state political leaders are maneuvering to scuttle or at least modify the use of the common core in louisiana, so it<u+2019>s not certain that the standards that the students are being asked to meet this year will even be around next year. the school<u+2019>s relentless focus on standards and testing reduces time for less defined but often more meaningful types of lessons <u+2013> ones that help kids understand themselves, their fellow students, and the world around them. but hardy has tried to squeeze these kinds of experiences into the school day. in january, she took 40 students on a field trip to selma, ala., to join the commemorations of the 50th anniversary of the march to montgomery. and one morning, she taught a unit on poverty in america, which included having third-, fourth-, and fifth-graders compare weekly expenses with median income for high school dropouts, college graduates, and those with a master<u+2019>s degree. recently, a fifth-grade blackboard showed the remnants of a vibrant discussion about young black men, police, and excessive force. <u+201c>because of the demographic our children come from, many will face immense challenges and unique realities,<u+201d> hardy says. <u+201c>we need to prepare them to understand how the world will engage with them. they need to understand how to engage with it. and maybe, create the possibility that they will act as change agents in their world.<u+201d> hardy accepts that her school, and her tenure as principal, will be evaluated largely on test scores. but she is adamant about maintaining what she sees as crucial parts of education that no test will measure. <u+2022> this project is a partnership between the monitor and the hechinger report, a nonprofit, independent news website focused on inequality and innovation in education and is affiliated with teachers college, columbia university. <u+00a9> 2015 the christian science monitor and the hechinger report.

with common core tests, a lot at stake for first-year principal

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you've probably seen this chart. it uses analysis from voteview to show how the house has grown more polarized over time. democrats in the house have become more liberal; republicans have become much more conservative. you may also have seen this chart -- but if you haven't, you probably at least are familiar with the concept. it shows the ranges of weekly approval ratings for president obama over the course of his administration. in other words, each time 82 percent of democrats approve of obama, the 82 percent bar gets a little higher. for the most part, opinions of obama haven't changed much among democrats or republicans; his overall approval rating is usually a function of how independents feel about him. obama isn't the first president to see such polarization in his approval ratings. the first president to do so was the guy before him, george w. bush. ronald reagan and bill clinton each had some polarization in their second terms, but it wasn't nearly as wide a gap. which leads us to a natural question: how does the polarization of congress -- which is a measure of the behavior of members of congress -- compare with the polarization of approval of the president, a measure of public opinion? that's a question we can answer. over time, the gap between the political leaning of republican and democratic caucuses on capitol hill has widened steadily (though not continuously). this compares dw-nominate scores from voteview, which is a measure of how liberal or conservative each member of congress is against a baseline. the figures below essentially measure the distance between the two lines in the first graph above. over that same period, opinions of the president have similarly widened -- again, with some fits and starts. there are two lines here, one using the first gallup approval rating of the new year and the other averaging the ratings over the year. you can see how attitudes shift; the gap plummets as a president becomes equally popular or unpopular with each party. anyway, this suggests that as congress has gotten more polarized, so too have opinions of the presidents. but there's a clearer way to look at this. plotting the gap in how democrats and republicans look at the president on one axis and the gap between the two parties in congress on the other, you can see clearly how both the former and latter have grown more extreme. (the higher and further to the right a dot, the greater the polarization.) in other words, this polarization isn't only a function of congress and gerrymandering. there's been a broader polarization that's taken place, reflected in how each party views the president. what it doesn't tell us is the cause. as complicated as these data are, this was the easier part of the analysis.

political polarization is getting worse. everywhere.

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(cnn) the aggressive jeb bush that his allies have been waiting for emerged this week -- and it was an attack on his family that got him going. the former florida governor launched his most forceful attempt yet to paint donald trump as an unserious candidate unfit for the foreign policy decisions that face the country's commander in chief. first, he punched back hard at trump's suggestion that his brother, george w. bush, bore responsibility for the september 11, 2001, attacks and that trump could have prevented them. in a series of interviews, bush then questioned trump's intellectual heft and understanding of complex world events. tuesday, he leveled his most blistering critique to date, with a national review op-ed accusing the real estate magnate of echoing "the attacks of (liberal filmmaker) michael moore and the fringe left" on national security issues. "let's be clear: donald trump simply doesn't know what he's talking about," bush wrote, adding that trump's "bluster overcompensates for a shocking lack of knowledge on the complex national-security challenges that will confront the next president." this is a critical moment for bush, who like other establishment republicans has been unable to break through against trump. as much as bush and his allies like to talk about having resources for the long game early next year, the next few weeks are key for whether his foreign policy message and electability arguments will click into place and capture the interest of voters. polls have shown very little excitement about his candidacy in any sector of the republican base. that fact is not only evident in polls, but also in interviews with voters on the ground in early states who often describe bush as lacking dynamism, enthusiasm and energy. despite heavy advertising in new hampshire and an impressive list of endorsements in the early states, a cnn/orc poll released this week showed bush tied in an unimpressive third place with florida rival marco rubio at 8%. and even after raising $13.4 million last quarter, many heavy-hitting republican donors -- particularly those who supported mitt romney -- are still on the sidelines, attracted to the candidacy of marco rubio and eying other contenders like john kasich and even chris christie. as part of the campaign to assuage concerns of donors and allies who have watched in surprise as he struggles, bush's longtime strategist mike murphy -- who runs the right to rise super pac -- also emerged in a rare interview to blast trump as a "false zombie front-runner" and outline his "theory of the race" on why bush will outlast the other gop candidates. "he's dead politically, he'll never be president of the united states, ever," murphy said of trump in an interview with bloomberg politics. murphy, who is legally prohibited from coordinating with the bush campaign, jabbed trump by predicting that his bid would collapse and adding "i don't think you can be a front-runner if you're totally un-electable." noting that he's worked with bush for 18 years, murphy argued that bush "builds slowly and gets better and better," pointing to his improved debate performances as an example of that. some of bush's most stalwart supporters have long felt that a pivot to foreign policy could help his standing in the field. his exchange with trump after the real estate magnate called his brother's administration "a disaster" during the cnn debate was one of his strongest performances of the night, and this week's 9/11 debate seemed to help him sharpen his critiques of trump. bush allies still believe rubio is vulnerable on the question of experience because of his short stint in the u.s. senate and the ease with which his rivals could compare him to barack obama, who won the presidency just four years into his first term on capitol hill. and while his bungled response to questions about his brother's decision to invade iraq created problems for bush earlier this summer, the renewed debate over 9/11 this week offered bush an opening to critique bill clinton's handling of osama bin laden in the 1990s. "the clinton administration made a mistake of thinking bin laden had to be viewed from a law enforcement perspective," bush said in an interview with fox's sean hannity. "similarly, president obama's polices seemed to be focused on that as well." murphy appeared to use bush's air war this week to emphasize the candidate's staying power. "he can outlast the noise, his candidate performance will be excellent and we're an amplifier," murphy said in the bloomberg politics interview, alluding to the $100 million war chest raised by the independent group earlier this summer. laying out the super pac's strategy for navigating the primary, he argued that the group can keep bush on the air and get his message out through the gantlet of primaries. "we see february 1 to march 15, 45 days, as our period to seize the nomination and get in front," murphy said, outlining his theory of the race. "we have the resources to pursue that campaign. most of these other guys are all running on spec. we're at a point now where we're significantly funded for those 45 days, cash in the bank today. nobody else is in that situation in this race. nobody's close." still, outsider candidates trump and ben carson led the pack in the cnn poll with 27% and 22% respectively, and their supporters expressed a far higher level of enthusiasm about their candidacies. nearly a third of trump supporters and a quarter of carson backers said they were "very enthusiastic" about the two men's bids. when bush's supporters were asked that same question, only 3% said they were "very enthusiastic" about his candidacy. bush has not fared much better in early state polls despite having a sizable organization on the ground: a dozen staffers in iowa, 13 in new hampshire, seven in south carolina and more than a half-dozen in nevada. in what could be a sign of things to come for the campaign, one surrogate who recently has come to his aid on the fundraising front is his brother. behind closed doors during a recent fundraiser, george w. bush expressed confidence in his brother's slow and steady approach to the race and distaste for another rival, ted cruz, who worked on george w. bush's campaign. the former president will also headline a fundraiser for his brother's presidential campaign while he's in town for a bush-cheney alumni event, according to an invitation obtained by cnn. while the elder bush's presidency has created a headache for jeb bush by forcing him to constantly explain to voters how his leadership style would differ from his brother's, allies noted the irony this week of the fact that jeb bush seems animated and passionate when defending his brother. "i think as a general matter that jeb bush does not want to be engaged in combat with donald trump, because you're distracting from your own message and your own ability to get better known if you're just known for fighting with somebody," said charlie black, a republican veteran strategist who advised president george h.w. bush but is neutral in the 2016 race. "in this case, because jeb's brother was attacked, there's no doubt that he's going to come out strong and be aggressive," said black. but going forward bush will need to move his message beyond trump to show he can sustain his own spotlight. "when trump hits jeb, jeb should not respond, surrogates should respond and let donald fight with the surrogates."

donald trump attacks force jeb bush out of his malaise

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killing obama administration rules, dismantling obamacare and pushing through tax reform are on the early to-do list.

clinton ekes out win in iowa against sanders

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despite her repeated statements that she will leave public service once her successor is in place, buzz about a possible second run for the presidency by secretary of state hillary clinton is in full force following the showing of a tribute video of her career. before delivering remarks on u.s. and israeli relations friday, the saban center for middle east policy at the brookings institution rolled out a video replete with soaring music and effusive praise of clinton's career by high-profile leaders and luminaries, and with it, continued speculation about whether she really has run her last political race. "as someone who knows a thing or two about political comebacks, i don't think we have heard the last of hillary clinton," israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu said in the video. "i have an instinct that the best is yet to come," said tony blair, the middle east envoy and former british prime minister. the video was part of the ninth annual forum by the saban center that focuses on the ongoing conflict between israelis and palestinians, and the u.s. role in dealing with it. clinton has repeatedly said that she intends to retire to private life once her successor is confirmed by the senate, and that another run for the white house is not in the cards for her. "look, i'm flattered. i am honored," she told cnn's wolf blitzer this year about calls by other democrats for her to consider another run in 2016. "that is not in the future for me, but obviously i'm hoping that i'll get to cast my vote for a woman running for president of our country." but with other notable figures like sen. john mccain, r-arizona, adding a healthy dose of bipartisan praise for america's top diplomat in the video, the never-ending question of will she or won't she seemingly lives another day. the blogosphere and airwaves were full of predictions monday that the video signaled clinton would make another run for the white house. "the film was like an international endorsement four years in advance of the iowa caucus and the new hampshire primary," wrote david remnick of the new yorker magazine. clinton's onetime competitor and current boss added to the tribute. "a lot has been said about our relationship, and here's what i know," president obama said in the video. "you haven't only been one of my closest partners, you have become a great friend." palestinian authority prime minister salam fayyad, israeli president shimon peres and former u.s. secretary of state madeline albright added their praise for clinton in the video as well. "i am somewhat overwhelmed, but i'm obviously thinking i should sit down," clinton said to laughter as she took the stage to begin her remarks. "i prepared some remarks for tonight, but then i thought maybe we could just watch that video a few more times."

hillary clinton tributes fuel 2016 buzz

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when facebook entered the news business in 2006, it set out to cover its own users. facebook had launched as a static collection of profiles, but now, every time a user uploaded a new photo or changed her favorite quote, the development surfaced in a rolling stream of updates that facebook called the <u+201c>news feed.<u+201d> every status update was a <u+201c>news story<u+201d>; the algorithm that chose which stories to boost was called <u+201c>the publisher.<u+201d> the publisher, facebook told its users at the time, was interested in stories like <u+201c>mark adds britney spears to his favorites<u+201d> and <u+201c>your crush is single again.<u+201d> as david kirkpatrick reported in his 2010 book the facebook effect, mark zuckerberg articulated the news feed<u+2019>s guiding principle to staff like so: <u+201c>a squirrel dying in front of your house may be more relevant to your interests right now than people dying in africa.<u+201d> the new york times would cover the african conflict. the news feed would show you the squirrel. now facebook is poised to begin publishing new york times stories directly to its own site. last year the pew research center deemed facebook the second-most popular source for political and government news among american internet users, just behind local tv. facebook has officially entered the news-news business. what kinds of stories does its publisher value now? a new study published online in science last week sheds some light. three researchers, all facebook employees, culled data from 10 million facebook users, 7 million news articles shared on the site, and the users<u+2019> combined 3.8 billion <u+201c>potential exposures<u+201d> to that content in order to find out how <u+201c>ideologically diverse news and opinion<u+201d> spreads (or doesn<u+2019>t) among liberal and conservative users. they found that the news feed algorithm<u+2014>which has long been accused of shielding users from politically oppositional content<u+2014>decreased the visibility of ideologically <u+201c>cross-cutting<u+201d> news by 8 percent for liberals and 5 percent for conservatives. from there, liberals were 6 percent less likely to click on a story from a conservative source (like fox news), while conservatives were 17 percent less likely to click over to a left-leaning site (like the huffington post). the facebook researchers concluded that <u+201c>[i]ndividual choice has a larger role in limiting exposure to ideologically cross cutting content<u+201d> than facebook<u+2019>s engineers do. all in all, users are <u+201c>exposed to more cross-cutting discourse in social media<u+201d> than we had all thought. the study is a clever bit of misdirection. i don<u+2019>t doubt its results<u+2014>getting your news from facebook isn<u+2019>t as ideologically isolating as, say, watching fox news or msnbc. but its title, <u+201c>exposure to ideologically diverse news and opinion on facebook,<u+201d> makes facebook sound like a pulsing marketplace of political opinion and news. meanwhile, i<u+2019>m scrolling down my news feed and finding videos of tina fey faux-stripping and an orangutan cuddling an armful of tiger cubs. facebook may help nudge liberals a little to the left and conservatives a little to the right, but its greatest influence over americans is toward political disengagement. the <u+201c>liberals<u+201d> and <u+201c>conservatives<u+201d> tracked in the facebook study actually represent a slim slice of the site<u+2019>s users. the study included only people who proudly complete the <u+201c>political views<u+201d> section of their profile, and just 4 percent of adult americans on facebook fit the bill. that<u+2019>s a curious group to focus on, because the generation that<u+2019>s most active on facebook is also the least likely to identify with a political orientation. last year<u+2019>s pew report on the beliefs and behaviors of millennials<u+2014>81 percent of whom are on facebook<u+2014>found that a full 50 percent of millennials consider themselves politically independent. their political <u+201c>disaffiliation<u+201d> rivals or exceeds that of any group pew has ever studied in its 25-year existence. instead, millennials <u+201c>are building their own networks,<u+201d> pew concluded<u+2014>not <u+201c>through political parties, organized religion or marriage<u+201d> but <u+201c>through social media.<u+201d> facebook isn<u+2019>t just facilitating communication between members of different political parties. it is replacing political parties. millennials, the new america foundation found last year, are less likely to vote or pledge allegiance to a party, but they do engage in some <u+201c>civic uses of social media.<u+201d> (slate has a publishing partnership with the new america foundation.) here<u+2019>s one sad data point supporting that conclusion: forty-four percent of millennials have <u+201c>liked<u+201d> a piece of political material on social media. meanwhile, a study published last year in new media & society found that being active on facebook does not encourage teenagers to become more politically engaged. it doesn<u+2019>t inspire them to join protests or sign petitions or affix buttons or even post political thoughts on the internet. but it does inspire them to spend more time entertaining themselves<u+2014>chatting with friends, downloading songs, shopping online, and engaging in other <u+201c>consumerist-oriented<u+201d> activities. this is a convenient outcome for facebook. it<u+2019>s easy to see why facebook would prefer young people to see facebook as a shopping mall rather than a soapbox. these users are easier to monetize and less likely to offend. after eli pariser, upworthy ceo and the author of the filter bubble: what the internet is hiding from you, parsed the facebook study, he admitted that the algorithm<u+2019>s contribution to the partisan divide was <u+201c>smaller than i<u+2019>d have guessed.<u+201d> but he also noted that the study elided a more basic question: how does facebook<u+2019>s algorithm manipulate the spread of news in general? one of the more revelatory data points embedded in the study concerns the proportion of <u+201c>hard content<u+201d> (stories about stuff like campaigns, war, health care, and abortion) and <u+201c>soft content<u+201d> (links about sports, entertainment, food, gadgets, and fashion) shared on the site. after assessing millions of links, the researchers declared over 90 percent of them soft. really soft: examples include a blind melon video, a cyber monday sale, and a link to a collection of inspirational photos paired with motivational quotes. and the study assessed only the content that links off of facebook. consider all the engagement announcements and pet photos that dominate your news feed, and facebook<u+2019>s journalistic priorities appear even fluffier. in theory, facebook presents an unprecedented opportunity for political cross-pollination. in a 2012 study on polarization and social media, stanford researchers cited studies dating back to 1967 showing that <u+201c>people do not encounter attitude-challenging information in large part due to their social milieu, habits, and lack of perceived benefits for seeking out such information.<u+201d> but on facebook,<u+00a0>users connect with friends, past friends, extended family members, co-workers, neighbors, and strangers, many of whom are likely to hold political beliefs that differ from their own. just don<u+2019>t expect them to talk about it on facebook. last year<u+00a0>pew studied how americans discussed edward snowden<u+2019>s leaking of nsa documents and found that while 86 percent of americans would share their opinion among friends over dinner, only 42 percent of social media users were willing to post about it online. americans were <u+201c>more willing to share their views if they thought their audience agreed with them.<u+201d> and the silence followed facebook users even after they logged off: facebookers were 50 percent less likely to discuss snowden in person than nonusers were. so instead of sparking political debates, facebook users convene over the soft stuff. the facebook researchers found that while pieces of hard news tend to circulate in ideological silos, soft content percolates across the aisle. i may scroll past one liberal friend<u+2019>s links expressing unconditional allegiance to hillary clinton, but i<u+2019>ll stop and like her video of a great dane puppy throwing a temper tantrum. this makes facebook a powerful force for human connection, but a poor destination for political engagement. the facebook effect<u+2019>s kirkpatrick put a rosier spin on the situation: now that we include facebook on our list of legitimate news sources, he said, journalists can boast that young people are reading more news than ever before. the one catch: <u+201c>they<u+2019>re just reading about their friends.<u+201d>

facebook isn<u+2019>t just making us less partisan. it<u+2019>s making us less politically engaged.

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let us be clear: republicans in the senate are under no obligation to interview, vote on or confirm president obama<u+2019>s pick for the supreme court. it does not matter that the president has nominated judge merrick garland, who is widely admired as a competent jurist. it is not about the person, it is about principle <u+2013> but the gop leadership has been remarkably inept at framing what that principle is and why they are in the right. the point is this: president obama has caused this conflict, by diminishing the role of the legislature and assuming unprecedented power for the executive branch. he has purposefully skirted congress for the better part of seven years, instead pushing ahead on his mostly unpopular agenda through regulations and executive orders. as a result, the court is being asked to act as referee, ruling on the legality of obama<u+2019>s <u+201c>my way or the highway<u+201d> presidency. you don<u+2019>t change a referee in the middle of a contest. this isn<u+2019>t about judge robert bork, or the <u+201c>biden rule<u+201d> -- this is a fight about president obama undermining the checks and balances established in the constitution. for instance, president obama has tried to essentially shut down our coal industry through new epa regulations limiting carbon emissions. these rules would create a massive dislocation to our economy, which has long benefited from cheap energy, including abundant coal. that there is a significant cost to the economy is clear; hillary clinton recently said <u+201c>we<u+2019>re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business.<u+201d><u+00a0> how right, and how cruelly nonchalant that statement is. as reported in the new york times, <u+201c>the plan could transform the nation<u+2019>s electricity system, cutting emissions from existing power plants by a third by 2030, from a 2005 baseline, by closing hundreds of heavily polluting coal-fired plants and increasing production of wind and solar power.<u+201d> because of the sizeable cost to the economy, lower courts have ruled against the president<u+2019>s anti-coal regulatory blitz. the supreme court, in an unprecedented move, issued a stay requested by 29 states and numerous other groups which prevents implementation of the carbon rule while a lower court<u+00a0> assesses its legality. in effect, the courts will rule on whether the white house is allowed to unilaterally punish one of our heritage industries and tens of thousands of workers. another important issue before the supreme court is president obama<u+2019>s executive action allowing some 6 million people living in the country illegally to be protected against deportation. this unilateral effort to rewrite our immigration laws is opposed by a majority of americans; but, it is a politically useful policy for democrats hoping to win latino votes. because of possibly harmful consequences, 26 states sued to prevent the order from taking effect. last fall, the fifth circuit court of appeals ruled in favor of those states, upholding an earlier injunction that blocked implementation of the president<u+2019>s executive order. at the time, ken paxton, attorney general of texas, which is leading the suit, said, <u+201c><u+201c>today, the fifth circuit asserted that the separation of powers remains the law of the land, and the president must follow the rule of law, just like everybody else.<u+201d> that<u+2019>s the point. for the republican leadership, refusing to consider mr. obama<u+2019>s nominee is a matter of principle, and also an opportunity to reward voters for having elected a republican congress. mitch mcconnell, john boehner and others have come under heavy criticism for not effectively countering president obama<u+2019>s policies. in fairness, substantial resistance from congress led the president to go his own way, using whatever tools he could find to pursue his <u+201c>legacy<u+201d> agenda. many think those tools went beyond the rightful scope of the executive branch. now, it is up to the supreme court to decide. because the court will weigh whether mr. obama has overstepped, he cannot be allowed to put his thumb on the scale by adding another sympathetic jurist. this is the message that republican leaders need to send to voters: the president has abused his authority, and we rely on the supreme court to reestablish the checks and balances that prevent an imperial white house. the gop should not be cowed by the bloviating of the new york times; they are on the right side of this battle. liz peek is a writer who contributes frequently to foxnews.com. she is a financial columnist who also writes for the fiscal times. for more visit lizpeek.com. follow her on twitter@lizpeek.

gop's message to voters should be this: supreme court fight is about obama's abuse of power

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<u+201c>our fight for lgbt equality is not nearly over,<u+201d> senator kirsten gillibrand (d-n.y.) stated emphatically in an interview with me last week on siriusxm progress. <u+201c>and i<u+2019>m hopeful, very hopeful, that the supreme court will say it<u+2019>s unconstitutional to ban gay marriage. but that<u+2019>s really just the beginning of fighting for our rights. we have to actually make sure all lgbt couples can have full parenting rights, have full social security and other federal benefit rights. we want to make sure companies can<u+2019>t discriminate against members of the community because of who they love and who they are. and it<u+2019>s really important [to take on] discrimination wherever it exists.<u+201d> toward that end, gillibrand last week reintroduced the every child deserve a family act, which she originally introduced in 2013 and which would bar adoption and foster care agencies that receive federal dollars from discriminating on the basis of sexual orientation. though gillibrand says she's seeking bipartisan support in the senate and will continue speaking with republicans, so far co-sponsors include a handful of fellow democrats, such as openly lesbian sen. tammy baldwin (d-wis.) and sen. elizabeth warren (d-mass.), and independent vermont sen. bernie sanders, who is running for the democratic nomination for the presidency. <u+201c>only seven states ban discrimination based on sexual orientation in adoption, and only five explicitly ban discrimination in foster care,<u+201d> gillibrand said in the interview. <u+201c>so we have a long way to go. we only have a few states protecting lgbt parents. the reality is, there are two million lgbt individuals and families that are willing and able to take on these parenting obligations, to adopt these children or foster these children who desperately need it. unfortunately, there are 400,000 children in the u.s. foster care system today and more than 20,000 of them are going to age-out before finding a permanent home. so we should be caring for these kids. we should give them the loving families they deserve.<u+201d> the bill, if it becomes law, would only affect those agencies that take federal money, and they are free to opt-out from receiving funds. "if you<u+2019>re getting the benefit of federal funds, you can<u+2019>t discriminate,<u+201d> gillibrand said. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s unconstitutional, and you should not be able to use our taxpayer dollars to discriminate against individuals based on their sexual orientation and who they love. so i think it<u+2019>s important we fight against it, particularly when our taxpayer dollars are being used.<u+201d> <u+201c>this legislation would prohibit adoption agencies and foster care agencies, including religious adoption agencies and foster care agencies, from providing services in many cases,<u+201d> lori windham, senior counsel with the becket fund for religious liberty told the catholic news agency, ewtn news. peter sprigg, senior fellow for policy studies at the family research council, is quoted in the same article saying there are <u+201c>unique problems<u+201d> with allowing gays and lesbians to adopt children. claiming there is <u+201c>overwhelming<u+201d> evidence while not citing any studies, sprigg said, <u+201c>i think it<u+2019>s legitimate to disfavor them or to exclude them altogether.<u+201d>

sen. kirsten gillibrand says supreme court decision on marriage equality 'just the beginning'

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having just spent an hour on sunday evening watching donald trump in a town hall setting with fox's greta van susteren moderating from madison, wisconsin, i am left with one impression: i don't want to buy a car from this guy. i have no idea what the final outcome of this nomination battle will be -- or whether trump can be elected president of the united states -- but i do know this, he can dance and he's one hell of a salesman. after having experienced , for him, probably the worst week of this election cycle, i was curious if he would clean up or restate some of his controversial statements on abortion ( 4 different answers in a week), his dismissal of nato and the united nations, his comments suggesting japan and south korea might need to arm themselves with nuclear weapons <u+00a0>and -- along with saudi arabia -- pay the u.s. a lot more money for our services because they are all rich and we are $20 trillion dollars in debt. <u+00a0>yes, it<u+2019>s true, the united states is not the policeman of the world or nor should we be. trump also didn't add any details for his plan to pay off the debt in 8 years by not raising taxes. he didn't restate or make any of it clearer. it was an hour of performance -- not substance -- and certainly not anything different from what we've heard him say in various debates or in the hundreds of hours he has performed on television. he's gonna repeal obamacare and put in a system of many options (not defined or explained ) that will be better, less expensive and everybody will be covered and everyone will be happy with their coverage. <u+00a0>and no one<u+2019>s going to die in the streets. taxes are going to be lower for everyone but the rich hedge fund guys who aren't paying their fair share. (ok, i agree with him on that one.) he's going to renegotiate all the bad trade deals starting with the most recent iran deal. (again, i agree with that one.) and he<u+2019>s also going to bring all the jobs home from china and mexico and any other countries that have stolen our them. of course, i<u+2019>m not quite sure how this is going to work because there were no details provided in his answers. he's going to knock out isis, stop airline mergers, fix the college education program because costs are too high and kids are being ripped off. he's gonna stop the drug epidemic in new hampshire because they are good people and gave him his first real victory. he did give details on this one. he going to make one call into mexico to someone (i assume to enrique pe<u+00f1>a nieto who is the 57th president of mexico. he's also the guy to talk to about paying for the $10 billion fence) and tell him to cut off the drugs or else. if you missed the hour on sunday night don't worry you because you will see a similar version of the donald trump show again and the sound bites will be the same. trump has said that one of his heroes is the great heavyweight champion muhammad ali who, at the end of his career, invented the<u+00a0>"rope a dope" to keep from getting hit and to wear out his opponents by evading their punches. donald trump has perfected his own version of "rope a dope" -- keep talking and avoid specifics. now, about that used car. don't worry, it will be the greatest and it will be the cheapest and best looking and i will be very happy. unfortunately, for trump on sunday night while he was "rope a doping" in madison, the cruz team was kicking his tail in north dakota and picked up at least 18 of the 25 delegates who are either supporting cruz or are against trump. the long fight for the republican nomination is a long way from finished and donald trump is still marching on. cruz is running a great grass root campaign and trump is running a great marketing effort. he is the product and he is the number one salesman. edward j. rollins is a fox news contributor. he is a former assistant to president reagan and he managed his reelection campaign. he is a senior presidential fellow at hofstra university and a member of the political consultants hall of fame. he is a strategist for great america pac, an independant group that is supporting donald trump for president.

after a terrible week trump sticks with style over substance in wisconsin

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(cnn) republicans began their debate thursday night with insults and ended with three candidates pledging to back donald trump should he win the nomination. florida sen. marco rubio and texas sen. ted cruz took more shots at trump in fox news' debate -- and through it all, the billionaire businessman seemed to relish standing center stage, defending himself against foes and moderators while showing his mettle to supporters. all three were happy to deflect efforts to drag them into sustained policy discussions and kept things personal. ohio gov. john kasich was content to stand to the side and watch it all. here are seven takeaways from thursday's republican debate: minutes into the debate, trump was boasting about the size of his penis. clearly annoyed that rubio had joked days ago about the size of trump's hands -- suggesting, as trump put it, that "if they're small, something else might be small" -- the republican front-runner made a claim seldom heard during a presidential debate. "i guarantee you, there's no problem. i guarantee you," he said. it was a pg-13 start to a two-hour food fight that parents wouldn't have wanted their kids to watch. early on, as rubio pressed trump for more policy details, the two gave each other nicknames. "don't worry about it, little marco," trump said, to which rubio responded, "let's hear it, big donald." trump said florida wouldn't elect rubio dogcatcher after all of his missed senate votes. cruz gave trump instructions on letting go of his anger: "donald, learn not to interrupt, it's not complicated. count to 10, donald. count to 10. count to 10." later, when cruz told trump to "breathe," rubio jumped in and joked that the two were doing yoga. "i really hope that we don't see yoga on this stage," cruz answered. and then rubio pointed to trump, who'd just admitted his flexibility on policies, and said: "well he's very flexible, so you never know." it seemed as if fox news had grown tired of trump's opponents' inability to knock him down -- so the moderators decided to do it themselves. chris wallace had a real-time fact check queued up when trump asserted he'd cut $500 billion in spending -- pointing out that his strategies, eliminating the department of education and the environmental protection agency (which trump called the department of environmental protection), would save just a fraction of that amount. it forced an awkward and unspecific claim about "other things" out of trump. "i'm not only talking about drugs, i'm talking about other things," he said. "we'll save more than $300 billion a year if we negotiate. we don't negotiate." megyn kelly took her shot later on, setting up three clips of trump taking one policy position and then, days later, taking the opposite position. trump was unmoored, insisting he had logical explanations about his reversals on syrian refugees, the war in afghanistan and more -- and that by the way, it doesn't matter much anyway. "you have to have a certain degree of flexibility," he said. ted cruz needs trump's momentum to ebb as much as anyone, but he didn't spend much of the night on the attack. for the most part, cruz stood aside and watched rubio and trump rip each other to shreds, and then turned to the audience and threw up his hands. "megyn, let me just ask the voters at home: is this the debate you want playing out in the general election?" he said. cruz took his shots at trump, too, but he let rubio do the dirty work -- betting that he, rather than the florida senator, will reap the benefits. rubio, for instance, built on the attack line mitt romney started earlier in the day regarding trump university, pressing trump over and over to admit he was ripping off the people who paid $36,000 for his courses at a school that's now the subject of a class-action lawsuit. cruz is trying to co-opt the angry electorate that trump has tapped into, and his pitch is simple: trump is the villain you've been mad at. "for 40 years, donald has been part of the corruption in washington that you're angry about," he said. it's entirely possible that the debate did nothing to change cruz's fortunes. but he does have a big opportunity on the horizon. of the four states to only allow republicans to vote in gop nominating contests, cruz has won three, thanks to his strength among conservatives and the rules limiting trump's ability to expand the electorate. and all four states set to vote saturday -- kansas, kentucky, louisiana and maine -- have closed contests. kasich will not, under any circumstances, engage directly with his foes on the debate stage. "as the democrats tell me all the time, i can get the crossover votes," he boasted early in the debate, adding that he's often told at town halls that he seems to be "the adult on stage." "i've talked about issues. i have never tried to go and get into these kinda scrums that we're seeing here," he said. he demonstrated his experience on economic and budgetary challenges and foreign policy, and showed no signs of backing out of the race anytime soon -- especially not before ohio's march 15 primary. for rubio, that's all a big problem. the man who won the hearts of the republican establishment by confronting trump head-on in the last debate was ready to hit the billionaire again and again -- but a 1-for-11 super tuesday intervened, and some of the shine wore off. he confronted trump once again, baiting the business mogul by calling him names, attacking his business ventures and accusing him of knowing nothing about policy -- even though he struggled with a raspy voice. on the campaign trail, trump has proposed changing u.s. libel laws so that politicians can more easily sue journalists. but on thursday night, trump said the bond between reporters and politicians who agree to go off-the-record is too strong to break. that, he said, is why he won't ask the new york times to release a transcript or recording of an off-the-record conversation he had with the newspaper's editorial board about immigration. "i think being off the record is very important. i will honor it," he said. then, trump allowed -- as his foes claimed -- that he might have softened his hard-line stance he has taken on the campaign trail that he will build a wall on the u.s.-mexico border and deport 11 million undocumented immigrants. "i will say that in immigration as well as with anything else, there has to be tug and pull. you have to be able to have some flexibility," he said. "i may have said something like that with the new york times. but i am not going to release something off the record." trump's opponents pounced on his remark, but they could be misreading his support. many trump backers say they know he can't achieve everything he proposes, but believe he'll fight for it more effectively than anyone else. in an interview with cnn's dana bash afterward, he defended that flexibility, saying: "i'm flexible with everything. you can't just say, 'this is it and i'm never going to talk,'" he said. "with that being said, you have to make great deals." coming less than 12 hours after mitt romney launched a scathing broadside against trump, the candidates' answer to the last question of the debate was particularly striking. fox news moderators asked rubio, cruz and kasich whether they'd back trump if he wins the nomination. all three said yes. the moment won't help rubio -- who had joined the #nevertrump movement of republicans vowing not to support trump on twitter last week -- with that crowd. more important, though, is what they didn't say. the premise of the question was that trump had already won the nomination. but there are scenarios in which republicans could have more chances to stop that from happening, even after all 50 states vote. a better question: would the republican field support the candidate who wins the most delegates? so what does this change? trump struggled with policy details, butted in when other candidates were speaking and sparred with the moderators. so what else is new? his sharp, and sharply personal, exchanges with his rivals might have been amped up thursday night, but still sounded much like trump's first 10 debates. the front-runner doesn't get rattled or lose his wit, even when he is under attack from everyone else on stage. he often seems to relish it -- as if his foes' criticism gives him an excuse to stop holding back. none of the debates so far have changed the trajectory of the race -- in part because trump is the master of the debate post-game, finding ways to deflect weak points and suck up media oxygen while branding his foes with nicknames like "little marco" and "lyin' ted" and claiming victory -- no matter what happened.

7 takeaways from the republican debate

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killing obama administration rules, dismantling obamacare and pushing through tax reform are on the early to-do list.

rand paul: i won the debate last night

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the trump campaign is coming apart from the inside, according to regent university's dr. gerson moreno-riano, and only the days ahead will show whether the candidate can bring people together, not only in his inner circle, but in the republican party. regent univerity's dr. gerson moreno-riano talks more about trump's challenge with evangelicals. watch above. trump fired campaign manager corey lewandowski monday amid reports of disagreements and infighting among the staff. "i think what's happened with the trump campaign is, i think it's fractured itself internally," moreno-riano said. "i think that it is trying to meet a number of different objectives and keep a number of constituencies very, very happy and it has been unable to do so." "and i think this is just symptomatic of a broader, a more deeper problem within the american electorate, particularly gop evangelicals," he added. moreno-riano said the test for trump is to find a way to bring his message under control and highlight the core concerns of gop constituencies, including evangelicals. "the dilemma has always been whether trump himself has what i'll call the internal character-based resources to pull this off," he explained. "he is a man who is very direct, very strong-minded and the question is: does he have enough discipline, both personally and professionally, enough political discipline to pull this off? i think at the end of the day, it's his question to answer." the decision to fire his campaign manager comes just one day before trump is set to meet with hundreds of evangelical leaders in new york city to answer their questions and lay to rest the many concerns they have about his conservative -- and christian -- bona fides. moreno-riano listed abortion, religious liberty, and the supreme court as some of the most important issues he can address in the meeting, including the question, "are you truly someone who understands the evangelical mindset -- those areas of deep concern?" but he pointed out evangelicals themselves are not united. they need to "bring unity to the table and i just don't see that," he said. since the 1950s evangelicals have failed to rally around any candidate and "that's too big a burden to place on trump," he said. "i think they're going to try to assess whether he's truly evangelical or not, so it's a big challenge for him to try and unite them around a common denominator. that's going to be difficult."

evangelical leader: trump campaign broken from the inside

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there's a lot of disgust in america with politicians' inability to get things done. in the race to win the republican presidential nomination, that disgust has so far benefited outsider candidates.<u+00a0>non-career politicians donald trump, carly fiorina and ben carson have all promised to ride in and fix washington. but new research by nolan mccarty, a professor at princeton university, and other political scientists suggests<u+00a0>this disgust <u+2014> and america's political dysfunction <u+2014> won't be that easy to fix.<u+00a0>working with political scientist boris shor<u+00a0>and economist<u+00a0>john voorheis, mccarty has released a new study that<u+00a0>shows<u+00a0>that the<u+00a0>growing ideological gap between the republican and democratic parties <u+2014> a common obstacle to getting anything done in washington <u+2014> is not just due to politicians' incompetence or their unwillingness to work together. it's due, at least in part, to a deeper, structural problem: the widening<u+00a0>gap between<u+00a0>the rich and poor. mccarty says he shares some of the disgust that americans feel about polarized politics and gridlock in washington.<u+00a0>"but i think it<u+2019>s important for readers and voters to understand . . . that<u+00a0>these problems are not just simply because career politicians are acting in bad faith or, as donald trump would say, they<u+2019>re stupid losers. they<u+2019>re really deep structural problems,"<u+00a0>he says. by looking at extensive data on u.s. states over the past few decades, the researchers show<u+00a0>that the widening gap between the rich and the poor in recent decades has<u+00a0>moved state legislatures toward the right<u+00a0>overall,<u+00a0>while also increasing<u+00a0>the ideological distance between those on the right and those on the left. this map below shows the gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, for each state going back to 1997. a lower gini figure indicates that people in the state are earning more equal incomes, while a higher one (marked here in darker green) shows that incomes are more unequal. (you can disregard the<u+00a0>axes here <u+2014> they just show<u+00a0>latitude and longitude.) the paper argues that this trend has gone hand in hand with the<u+00a0>growing political divide.<u+00a0>the states that have the highest levels of inequality, or the fastest growth in equality, have also tended to see the most political polarization, the paper says. using a scale of state legislator ideology that looks at annual surveys of the beliefs of candidates since the mid-1990s, the researchers map where<u+00a0>democrats have<u+00a0>shifted to the left and republicans have shifted to the right at the state level.<u+00a0>the<u+00a0>map below<u+00a0>gives an ideological "score" in each state for each chamber <u+2014> in most states, a<u+00a0>house of representatives and a<u+00a0>senate. a more negative score and a deeper blue color on the map indicate that the state chamber is more liberal, while a positive score and deeper red color show the state is more conservative. you can see that blue states have become bluer and red states redder since 1997.<u+00a0>a look at party composition in each state shows the same trend. it's not just that these two trends of inequality and polarization are happening simultaneously. the researchers use statistical methods to eliminate other factors<u+00a0>and show that a state's income inequality has a large, positive and causal effect on its political polarization.<u+00a0>furthermore, these results have increased in magnitude in recent years and seem to be concentrated in the states that are "reddest" by the end of the sample. in other words,<u+00a0>growing inequality is a<u+00a0>strong force pushing both parties farther from the center. the<u+00a0>paper doesn't specifically say why this happens, except that politics gets more polarized with each election. it appears that people on either end of the economic spectrum have been<u+00a0>developing even more different<u+00a0>political preferences and electing people to represent those preferences. interestingly, however, the study shows<u+00a0>that<u+00a0>inequality is affecting the two parties in different ways. first, the researchers find that democrats as a whole have shifted farther to the left than the republicans have to the right, with very liberal democrats becoming even more liberal. but<u+00a0>at the level of the state legislature, they find that ideology as a whole has shifted slightly to the right.<u+00a0>the reason is that there has been a change in the partisan balance, with republicans winning more seats from moderate democrats over time. "as the democrat party has shrunk nationally over the course of the last 15 years, the disproportionate effect has been the replacement of moderate democrats with republicans, and that has tended to happen most often in states with high levels of inequality, or where inequality is growing the fastest,<u+201d> mccarty said. the map below, which shows<u+00a0>the percentage of seats held by republicans, illustrates how that has happened. the percentage of seats held by republicans has increased, especially through the south and middle america, since 1997: this study offers evidence that inequality leads to political polarization. though they have yet to produce definitive findings, the researchers also believe, as many others in their field do, that political polarization also in turn produces more inequality, creating a vicious feedback loop of inequality and polarized politics. how does that work? not only are more conservative lawmakers less likely to favor redistribution, the political gridlock that results from having a more polarized system makes it harder to pass bills that might reduce income inequality, such as increasing the minimum wage, strengthening union bargaining power, or increasing redistribution through welfare, researchers say. the research<u+00a0>suggests that political polarization is not just a product of gerrymandering, the way districts are drawn, or caused by features of the state political system, such as having closed partisan primaries, mccarty says. instead, he<u+00a0>argues that america's political polarization is a<u+00a0>reflection of bigger, broader changes in the united states, in particular that the<u+00a0>country has become much more diverse in terms of its economic, racial and ethnic makeup than it was in the 1950s. the diversity, unsurprisingly, has a direct impact on the political system, and we have yet to figure out how to repair the system to reflect a more diverse society, mccarty says. so what does this mean for average voters in the near term? for one, they should be skeptical of candidates who promise an easy fix to political dysfunction in washington. "these are deep, complicated problems, and people need to think big picture about what underlies them. they weren<u+2019>t solved by electing barack obama, they<u+2019>re probably not going to be solved by electing donald trump," mccarty says. you might also like: what it<u+2019>s like to be a part of the world<u+2019>s richest 1 percent, in 15 incredible photos the growing wealth gap that nobody is talking about what people in 1900 thought the year 2000 would look like

these political scientists may have just discovered why u.s. politics are a disaster

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jindal, a republican who is considering a presidential run, suggested that politicians like president barack obama and former secretary of state hillary clinton changed their views on gay marriage because of polling indicating more americans in support of gay marriage. "i'm not one of those politicians," jindal said on cnn's "new day." "my faith teaches me that marriage is between a man and a woman. i don't believe in discrimination against anybody. i'm not for changing the definition of marriage." jindal may be in the minority on the issue when it comes to the issue, but that won't be the case if he joins a crowded republican primary expected to be full of same-sex opponents, like former arkansas gov. mike huckabee. huckabee, a staunch social conservative who sought the gop nomination in 2008, said monday on cnn suggested he doesn't think he'll be on the "wrong side of history" when it comes to same-sex marriage. "when you say 'the wrong side of history,' let's just be reminded that there's been a relatively, and i mean a very relative brief history of same-sex marriage. the overwhelming history is the natural law of marriage, biblical marriage," he said. "so i don't think there's a side of history that's overwhelming at this point. people have their opinions." but huckabee, who's insisted social issues won't be the linchpin of his probable candidacy, argued that the presidential race will be focused on the economy and proposals to combat poverty. jindal's comments came as he sounded off on the battle over same-sex marriage brewing in neighboring alabama, where officials in dozens of counties refused to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples on monday, the first day in the state's history same-sex couples have been allowed to wed after a federal court ruling overturned the state's ban. same-sex couples wed in alabama despite efforts to block them jindal sidestepped questions about whether county officials should respect the federal ruling and lawfully issue same-sex marriage licenses. instead, the governor said he hopes the supreme court will rule to uphold state's legislative bans on gay marriage when the court rules on the issue by this summer. louisiana's legislature overwhelmingly amended the state's constitution in 2004 to define marriage solely as the union of a man and a woman. but if the supreme court overturns same-sex marriage bans around the country <u+2014> which it may very likely do <u+2014> jindal said the u.s. congress should pass a constitutional amendment upholding state's same-sex marriage bans, an all-but-impossible endeavor requiring two-thirds support in the house and senate.

jindal won't "evolve" on same-sex marriage

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while russia's increased presence in syria gives the regime another leg to stand on, some in damascus say moscow could also temper iran's influence. starbucks will expand in china <u+2013> and it looks like a smart idea this sept. 15, 2015 satellite image with annotations provided by geonorth, allsource analysis, airbus shows russian tanks and armed personnel carriers at an air base in latakia province, syria. russia<u+2019>s increased military assistance to syria provides president bashar al-assad<u+2019>s embattled regime with a welcome boost to its hold on power after a series of territorial losses this year to rebel forces. but while russia appears to have coordinated its military expansion with iran, mr. assad<u+2019>s other key ally, the move could also serve as a counterbalance to tehran<u+2019>s powerful influence in syria, a phenomenon that has generated ripples of unease in some circles of the damascus regime. russia and iran are staunch allies of assad and collectively have provided diplomatic, financial, military, and material support to help his regime stave off the challenge posed by opposition groups. both countries have much at stake: syria is one of the few middle eastern countries where russia continues to wield influence, and it provides iran with a vital geographical conduit to its lebanese prot<u+00e9>g<u+00e9> hezbollah. it is also a key component of the axis of resistance, an alliance of countries and parties opposed to israel and western regional interests. <u+201c>both iran and russia want to preserve the political system in syria, to keep assad in power<u+201d> says rajab safarov, the director of the moscow-based center for studying modern iran. <u+201c>assad<u+2019>s defeat would have a serious impact on iran and wouldn<u+2019>t suit [the interests of] moscow, either.<u+201d> still, despite the shared interest of moscow and tehran in the assad regime<u+2019>s survival, there are differences that russia<u+2019>s expanding military presence in syria may expose in the coming months. <u+201c>until recently, the iranians had much a bigger involvement on the ground than the russians. so i think the increase in [russian] arms supplies is probably an attempt to balance the situation on the ground,<u+201d> says nikolay kozhanov, a visiting fellow of the russian-eurasia program at london<u+2019>s chatham house and nonresident fellow at the carnegie moscow center. russia continues to work with the syrian state, while iran has set up a parallel security structure of local militias and foreign shiite expeditionary forces from lebanon, iraq, afghanistan, and pakistan, granting it prolonged influence in syria if the assad regime falls. russia seeks to preserve the territorial integrity of syria and prevent it from breaking into militia-run fiefdoms. that is a goal shared by the assad regime, which continues to fight for distant and isolated areas in the far north, south, and east of the country despite a critical manpower shortage in the decimated syrian army. the priority of iran, on the other hand, is to hold onto the western periphery of syria, with access to hezbollah in lebanon and the mediterranean coast. in recent months, iranian-supported forces, including hezbollah, have pulled back from outer-lying areas to concentrate on securing the key real estate from south of damascus to latakia on the coast in the northwest corner of the country. <u+201c>the russians see it as important that the country remain with its current borders ... [but] i think the iranians will be satisfied with control over certain areas of the country with pro-iranian groupings that would ensure their access to lebanon and hezbollah,<u+201d> says mr. kozhanov, previously a diplomat at the russian embassy in tehran. <u+201c>that<u+2019>s the difference, and that difference is clearly understood in moscow.<u+201d> the assad regime owes iran much for coming to its rescue with billions of dollars for the cash-strapped economy and deploying thousands of shiite fighters against rebel forces. but that iranian lifeline came at a price. iranian military commanders, rather than syrian army generals, have been shaping much of the regime<u+2019>s defense, according to arab and western diplomats in the region. tellingly, iranian and hezbollah officers, rather than the syrian army, recently conducted cease-fire negotiations with a rebel group over the besieged opposition-held town of zabadani, 17 miles northwest of damascus. furthermore, there have been allegations that iran has been tampering with syria<u+2019>s demographic geography by settling shiites, including the families of foreign fighters, in and around damascus and preventing sunnis from returning to their homes in some regime-held areas. last year, the assad regime passed a decree allowing shiite doctrine to be taught in schools alongside sunni islam. shiite mosques are proliferating as well as stalls selling shiite books, pamphlets, and motifs in sunni areas of damascus. the level of iranian influence has fueled unease in damascus, reportedly even within the regime itself. there have been several reports in the past year of top syrian figures grumbling that syria was giving up its sovereignty to iran. however, russia<u+2019>s expanded role in syria could serve as a counterweight to iran<u+2019>s pervasive influence. <u+201c>some observers are reading the russian intervention as an attempt to pre-empt the total 'iranization' of the syrian state, as much as it is an attempt to rescue the regime,<u+201d> says faysal itani, resident fellow at the atlantic council<u+2019>s rafik hariri center for the middle east. these differences aside, russian and iran continue to share a vested interest in the assad regime<u+2019>s survival. while the level of coordination between moscow and tehran is unclear at this stage, it may be no coincidence that signs of a russian military buildup began shortly after a reported visit in late july to moscow by maj.-gen. qassem suleimani, commander of the quds force, the external operations wing of the iranian revolutionary guard corps. lebanon<u+2019>s as safir newspaper reported tuesday that suleimani paid another visit to moscow last week. <u+201c>i believe iran and russia are getting closer in the course of the syrian crisis, although they have had different approaches in dealing with the situation,<u+201d> says kayhan barzegar, director of the institute for middle east strategic studies in tehran. still, their common interests should ensure continued cooperation. <u+201c>in fact, it<u+2019>s russia that currently needs a powerful regional partner to shape its new political-security doctrine in the region,<u+201d> says mr. barzegar. <u+201c>i think russia is careful to not upset iran in the new circumstances, especially in a time that there is an ongoing thaw between iran and the west.<u+201d> staff writer scott peterson contributed to this report from tehran, and contributor olga podolskaya from moscow.

russia and iran both propping up assad. a balancing act?

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warren, a hero of progressive democrats, is the latest party leader to fall in line behind clinton after she clinched the requisite number of delegates earlier this week over rival bernie sanders. warren told msnbc's rachel maddow tonight, "i am ready to get in this fight and work my heart out for hillary clinton to become the next president of the united states, and to make sure that donald trump never gets anyplace close to the white house." the endorsement comes the same day that president obama also endorsed clinton in a video and announced he would campaign with his former 2008 rival next week. but warren's backing may be more politically important for clinton than obama's blessing. the democratic senator, who remained neutral throughout the contest, championed many of the same economic inequality issues and wall street reforms sanders drew attention to in the primary. she said tonight the 2016 election "is not about one candidate, it's about all of us coming together coming together to fight to level the [economic] playing field." in fact, she was urged by many progressive groups early on to challenge clinton herself, and the "ready for warren" organization who tried to lay the groundwork for her run ended up endorsing sanders. even though she remained on the sidelines, warren has emerged as a fierce attack dog against presumptive gop nominee donald trump, calling him a "nasty, thin-skinned fraud" just thursday. he, in return, has derided her as "pocahontas" <u+2014> an allusion to a controversy that emerged during her 2012 senate run after she had claimed native american ancestry. tonight warren said trump had cheered for the 2007 economic crisis because he knew how to make a profit from it. "what kind of a person does that?" she asked, "an insecure money-grubber who cares about nothing but himself. ... that cannot be the man who leads the united states of america." warren has been floated as a possible vice presidential pick for clinton, a choice that could help allay some concerns among progressives about the former secretary of state's nomination. but there was immediate backlash online to warren's anticipated nomination. many supporters took to her facebook page with profane comments, calling her a "sell out" for not endorsing sanders.

elizabeth warren backs hillary clinton

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a day after police killed two terror suspects in eastern belgium, a bomb scare forced the evacuation of the busy gare de l'est train station in paris, and secretary of state kerry joined french president hollande in a visit to the sites of last week's attacks. why is angela merkel calling for a ban on the full islamic veil? french, german, and belgian police arrested more than two dozen suspects in antiterrorism raids friday, as european authorities rushed to thwart more attacks by people with links to islamic extremists in the middle east. rob wainwright, head of the police agency europol, told the associated press that foiling terror attacks has become "extremely difficult" because europe's 2,500-5,000 radicalized muslim extremists have little command structure and are increasingly sophisticated. highlighting the fears, a bomb scare forced paris to evacuate its busy gare de l'est train station during friday morning's rush hour. no bomb was found. visiting a scarred paris on friday, us secretary of state john kerry met french president francois hollande and visited the sites of the attacks last week on the newspaper charlie hebdo and a kosher supermarket. twenty people, including the three gunmen, were killed. french and german authorities arrested at least 14 other people friday suspected of links to the islamic state group. thirteen more were detained in belgium and two arrested in france in an anti-terror sweep following a firefight thursday in the eastern belgian city of verviers. two suspected terrorists were killed and a third was wounded in that raid on a suspected terrorist hideout, and federal magistrate eric van der sypt said friday that the suspects were within hours of implementing a plan to kill police on the street or in their offices. belgian authorities were searching for more suspects friday, and found four military-style weapons including kalashnikov assault rifles in more than a dozen raids, mr. van der sypt said. "i cannot confirm that we arrested everyone in this group," he said. belgian authorities did not give details of the people detained or even those killed, but said most were belgian citizens. belgian authorities stressed that the targets of their crackdown had no known connections to last week's attacks in neighboring france. belgium has seen a particularly large number of people join extremists in syria, and is "the worst affected country in europe relative to population size," said peter neumann of the london-based international center for the study of radicalization. he estimates 450 people have left belgium to fight with islamic radical groups in syria, and that 150 of them have returned home. across europe, anxiety has grown as the hunt continues for potential accomplices of the three paris gunmen. the paris prosecutor's office said at least 12 people were arrested in antiterrorism raids in the area, targeting people linked to one of them <u+2013> amedy coulibaly <u+2013> who claimed ties to the islamic state group. police officials earlier told ap that they were seeking up to six potential accomplices. paris is at its highest terrorism alert level, and police evacuated the gare de l'est train station after a bomb threat. the station, one of several main stations in paris, serves cities in eastern france and countries to the east. in berlin, police arrested two men friday morning on suspicion of recruiting fighters for the islamic state group in syria. prosecutors said 250 police officers participated in the dawn raids on 11 residences that were part of a months-old investigation into a group of turkish extremists. mr. kerry's visit to france came after the obama administration apologized for not sending a higher-level delegation to sunday's massive rally in paris, which drew more than 1 million people to denounce terrorism. mr. hollande thanked kerry for offering support, saying: "you've been victims yourself of an exceptional terrorist attack on sept. 11. you know what it means for a country.... together, we must find appropriate responses." in a separate speech to diplomats, hollande said france is "waging war" against terrorism and will not back down from its international military operations against islamic extremists in iraq and northern africa. france's parliament voted this week to extend airstrikes against islamic state extremists in iraq. the belgian raid on a former bakery was another palpable sign that terror had seeped deep into europe's heartland as security forces struck against militants, some of who may be returnees from jihad in syria. that investigation had started well before last week's rampage in paris, but belgian authorities are separately looking for possible links between a man they arrested in the southern city of charleroi for illegal trade in weapons and mr. coulibaly, who killed four people in the kosher supermarket. several other countries are also involved in the hunt for possible accomplices to coulibaly and the gunmen who attacked the newspaper, brothers cherif and said kouachi. the kouachi brothers claimed allegiance to al qaeda in yemen; coulibaly to the islamic state group.

police arrest suspects across europe in rush to minimize terror threat (+video)

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hollywood, florida (cnn) donald trump's new delegate guru told republican party insiders at a posh resort here on thursday that the billionaire front-runner is recalibrating the part "that he's been playing" and is ready to work with the gop to "evolve" as a candidate past the divisive primary. meanwhile 1,100 miles away in harrisburg, pennsylvania, trump told his supporters the republican system is "rigged" and "crooked." this is the dilemma facing the republican national committee and its members meeting here this week: can they cope with trump, an unpredictable personality who has come this close to winning the presidential nomination with a campaign leaning heavily on direct anger at gop officials and institutions? paul manafort, trump's senior adviser and a long-time republican operative, said that trump understands the changing nature of the campaign and is prepared to "evolve." "he recognizes that things aren't static. that what is right to start the campaign isn't necessarily the way you finish the campaign," manafort told cnn thursday night after he met with rnc officials here. but manafort did not want to call anything a "d<u+00e9>tente" between trump and the gop establishment. "there's no reason to have a detente, i mean there's not a fight," he said. "i mean the trump campaign and the rnc are working together on a bunch of different things ... but the focus has been on getting the nomination," he said. "now that we're approaching the nomination, the focus is on blending the party and the campaign so that we can run as a united team and that's what we started to do here this weekend." the trump campaign is approaching things here as if it already won the nomination. there was no focus in the closed-door meeting with trump's people and the rnc on the effort to secure the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination, a source inside the room said. instead manafort contrasted trump with hillary clinton -- trump has "personality negatives" that can be fixed by campaign consultants like him, but clinton has deep "character negatives" dealing with issues of trust, he told the room, according to audio obtained by cnn from someone who attended manafort's presentation. "the part that he's been playing is now evolving into the part that you've been expecting. the negatives will come down, the image is going to change, but 'crooked hillary' is still going to be 'crooked hillary,'" manafort told the packed room, which attendees described as too small and jammed with what appeared to be more trump supporters than rnc members -- the intended audience. trump, manafort said, has been playing two roles in the campaign -- one in public, onstage with voters, and one in private that is more subdued and will start appearing more. "trump is an outsider and that's why many of you don't know him, but when he's sitting in a room, he's talking business, he's talking politics in a private room, it's a different persona," manafort told the crowd. "when he's out on the stage, when he's talking about the kind of things when he's out on the stump, he's projecting an image that's for that purpose and the two you'll start to see coming together in the course of the next several months." shortly into a slide presentation that focused on trump's ability to win a general election contest manafort asked his assistant to end the slide-show and said, "actually, i know what i'm gonna say," manafort said to some laughs, according to an attendee and meeting audio. after the meeting, manafort said the message was received well. "i mean we had a very good meeting," manafort told cnn. "i think people were hungry to find out with the campaign's intentions were, what donald trump's intentions were. we answered all the questions. i think they left there, they have a better understanding of the integration of the campaign with the party as we move towards the general election." trump recently brought in manafort and rick wiley, scott walker's former campaign manager, after it was clear ted cruz was winning delegates with an intense ground game. manafort said the new hires also should calm nerves among jittery republicans here. "they know rick wiley, they know me, so we're bridging that relationship while he goes about finishing the job for the nominee," manafort told cnn earlier thursday. cruz, speaking on the mark levin show thursday night, said trump is trying to snow over republican voters. "donald is a new york liberal who is pretending to be a conservative to try to fool republican primary voters," cruz said. "he's telling us he's lying to us," cruz added. "what his campaign manager says -- you look at what his campaign manager is telling us: this is just an act, this is just a show, building a wall... when he talks about anything, it's all an act and a show." trump was the only candidate of the remaining three not to show up here in person. john kasich and cruz both spoke to party leaders at private receptions wednesday night and hosted smaller groups for private meetings outside of the resort. and trump himself is showing no signs of letting up. he is the only candidate who can reasonably get to 1,237 delegates before cleveland, and has cruz and other republicans out to stop him on subsequent ballots. in harrisburg, trump compared the primary system to "crooked hillary" clinton, getting two attacks against his enemies in one. "the system is rigged, the voting is rigged, the whole deal is crooked 100%, almost as crooked as crooked hillary. it's a crooked deal," trump said. "and that's why you have a case where i go in and win with the vote, and these guys go in, they buy delegates, they buy them dinners, they send them to hotels." the continuing blasts against the party from trump -- and pressure from cruz and kasich -- led rnc leaders earlier thursday to back off proposed rules changes for the convention amid very vocal fears they would be perceived favoring one of the three. "the party is like the lawyer in a divorce court," said holland redfield, the rnc committeeman from the virgin islands. "surely there's a lot of whining going on," redfield said. "here you have candidates that have also said to each other they are not supporting whoever gets out of this process. i mean come on! so they put the party in the middle." kasich senior adviser john weaver said that rnc members were pushing for the ohio governor to stay in the race -- even with only one state victory (ohio) and fewer delegates than marco rubio, who dropped out last month. "we've run into a lot of people here who are encouraging us to go the distance because the people at this meeting particularly have a charge of putting together a winning ticket," weaver said. ken cuccinelli, cruz's chief delegate hunter, said the death threats made against colorado republican party chairman steve house came up repeatedly in meetings between cruz and rnc members wednesday. "they are definitely on the minds of lots of people here, especially when they saw steve house, one of their colleagues, getting death threats. that comment was made, repeatedly, with various observations about it and those tactics in these meetings," cuccinelli said. "and this was the members making the comments, not us bringing them up." cruz kept his wednesday presentation focused on his plan for winning the white house -- the party's ultimate goal -- and detailing his strategy in upcoming states like pennsylvania, according to rnc members who attended his speech. and he added how he could help their own party efforts with his promised coattails. "he touched on that a little bit with the down-ballot effect, we come out of that election hopefully with some big wins" said oregon republican party chairman bill currier, who attended the cruz speech. do leaders take trump seriously? but with their options dwindling, some party leaders here said they could make the distinction between trump's sharp attacks on the party and his political strategy. "i think that's just part of his persona, i never take that stuff seriously or personally," said pennsylvania republican party chairman rob gleason. "he cannot be elected without the republican party. that's the long and short of it. he needs us. we need a candidate and he needs us, so we all need to work together." henry barbour, a party national committeeman from mississippi who has said in the past it would be "very hard" for him to vote for trump, agreed. "i think that's donald trump being donald trump. he's an insurgent candidate trying to appeal on a populist level. i don't take it that he really means it," said barbour. the populist furor sparked by trump, along with his campaign message, that he is being cheated out of the nomination -- with the public's voice being ignored -- has exposed a deeper rift in the republican party which may have to be worked out after november, no matter who is their nominee and no matter which party wins the white house. "if somehow or another it comes to pass that the results of the primary choose our nominee ahead of the convention, as far as i'm concerned it's the end of the national republican party," said rnc committeeman curly haugland, of north dakota. haugland and some other party veterans have argued that the public -- and some incredibly angry trump supporters -- are simply learning what has been true of every previous nominating contest: the party picks its candidate for the white house. "it can't be rigged if the rules have been public and transparent for nearly a year and we've done it this way since 1856," barbour said. but in 2016, it won't be barbour deciding what's "rigged" and what not.

trump tries to smooth things over with gop insiders

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gop presidential hopefuls serve up ice cream, cheese and red meat to iowans gop presidential hopefuls spent saturday night serving up ice cream, cheese and political red meat to potential iowa caucus voters. at the iowa republican party's annual lincoln day dinner fundraiser, the first part of the evening was rigid. each of the 11 possible candidates present was given a strictly enforced 10 minutes to make their pitch before later wooing voters at their hospitality suites downstairs with home-state fare in a more relaxed environment. some candidates served up surprises to the crowd, too, which could make a critical lasting impression for underdog candidates. sen. lindsey graham, r-s.c., got the most laughs of the evening, declaring he was the "halftime" entertainment as he took the stage "the more you drink, the better i sound, so keep drinking," he joked. "if you need to go to the bathroom, go ahead. won't bother me a bit." he jabbed at iowa sen. chuck grassley's famously frugal ways: "the one thing i learned about this dinner is it was free for chuck or he wouldn't have been here!" he also ribbed freshman sen. joni ernst's memorable 2014 "hog castration" ad: "when i saw that ad with the pigs, i made sure i'd never offend joni." but the hawkish senator quickly turned serious, taking a jab at his frequent foe, rand paul, the libertarian-leaning kentucky senator. paul, who has already officially announced his candidacy, had used his own time to reiterate his opposition to the nsa's controversial wiretaps, telling voters, "i want to catch terrorists, but i also want to protect the constitution." graham, who could announce his 2016 plans june 1, promised that if someone under his watch as president was thinking of joining isis or planning a terrorist attack, "i'm not calling a judge" to get a warrant, as paul called for, "i'm calling a drone and we're going to kill you." graham also gave cover to another potential 2016 rival <u+2014> former florida gov. jeb bush, who fumbled questions this week on whether he would invaded iraq. the former u.s. air force jag corps lawyer blamed the deterioration in the middle east on obama's withdrawal of troops in the region, not on former president george w. bush. "if you fought in iraq," graham said, "it's not your fault it's going to hell. it's obama's fault." but paul didn't spare bush that scrutiny. without mentioning his likely rival by name, he said the question of whether the iraq war was a good idea was a "valid question. not because we're talking about history, but because we're talking about the middle east, where history repeats itself." paul said the same question should be asked of hillary clinton. "if she ever takes any questions," he quipped. he then pivoted to an indictment of clinton's reaction to the 2012 consulate attacks in benghazi, libya, which he said should "disqualify" her as president. when bush took the stage, he began by acknowledging his family in a nod to the controversy of this week. "you all know me as george and barbara's boy, for which i'm proud," he said. "some of you all may know that dubya is my brother. i'm proud of that, too." earlier on saturday, bush defended his answers this week when he was asked by fox news' megyn kelly, "knowing what we know now, would you have authorized the invasion" in iraq? after saying he would, bush tried to clarify the next day, saying he "interpreted the question wrong" before finally fully walking back the answer thursday, saying he would not have gone into iraq. "i misstepped, for sure. i answered a question that wasn't asked," he told voters at a town hall at loras college in dubuque on saturday morning. later that afternoon, when taking questions from reporters in iowa city, he said all candidates were going to make mistakes. "if you're looking for a perfect candidate," he said, "he probably existed 2,000 years ago." at the lincoln dinner, bush took aim at obama's foreign policy, echoing part of his stump speech. "name a country where the relationship is better than the day that barack obama came into office?" he asked. "iran. cuba. i rest my case." foreign policy hits against both obama and clinton were familiar refrains from other speakers, too. "iran, enemy. israel, friend. it's real simple," said former sen. rick santorum, r-pa., who won iowa in 2012. gov. bobby jindal, r-la., assailed obama for what he saw as not standing up for religious liberty in the face of threats abroad. "the united states of america did not create religious liberty," he said. "religious liberty created the united states." ben carson, who has never held political office, but is a tea party favorite, saw his first lead in a poll of republican primary voters. "while our enemies are magnifying and metastasizing, we're shrinking back," said carson, a retired pediatric neurosurgeon. former texas gov. rick perry tried to offer a hopeful historical reminder: "we made it through jimmy carter. we'll make it through barack obama." his speech ran long, and like a scene out of an academy awards ceremony, music began to play. another candidate, who got the proverbial hook, was carly fiorina, the former hewlett-packard ceo. her microphone was cut off to the verbal frustration of the crowd. she briefly continued to speak while the audience could not hear her. her speech, though, was well received, including getting the loudest applause of the night with this jab, recalling how she was asked when she announced her official campaign last week if a woman's hormones would affect her ability to do the job as president. "can anyone think of a single instance where a man's judgment was clouded by his hormones? and in the oval office," she said, a not-so-subtle shot at former president bill clinton. fiorina also got applause as she contrasted her own previous meetings with foreign leaders to clinton. fiorina boasted how she would stand up to russian and iranian leaders. as she's done in previous cattle calls, fiorina drew notice as the only woman in the field and positioned herself as a natural foil to clinton, the likely democratic nominee. when the formal speeches concluded, gop faithful mingled downstairs, meandering from room to room that candidates had set up. some of the longest lines to meet candidates were in the suites of graham and fiorina, who attracted renewed interest after strong performances. the lines for bush, carson and walker were winding, too. several candidates turned to their home states for inspiration. jindal's was mardi gras-themed, passing out green, gold and purple beads and promising bandanas for supporters of local "duck dynasty" star willie robertson. clad in a red apron, walker stood behind a table scooping ice cream and serving up wisconsin cheese. a harley-davidson motorcycle was on display next to him <u+2014> a nod to ernst's inaugural "roast and ride" in a few weeks <u+2014> while autographed "cheesehead" hats were on his book table in the crowded room. perry also served ice cream, a nod to the favorite dessert he says he usually grabs at the end of a day spent campaigning. and as iowa republican party chairman jeff kaufmann noted, the event and likely caucus lineup offered something for everyone of all palates in the gop. "it's like going into baskin-robbins and not knowing which flavor to take," he said at the end of the dinner. "i want a taste of every single one."

gop presidential hopefuls serve up ice cream, cheese and red meat to iowans

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syrians wait near the turkish border during clashes between isis and kurdish armed groups in kobani, syria, on thursday, june 25. the photo was taken in sanliurfa, turkey. isis militants disguised as kurdish security forces infiltrated kobani on thursday and killed "many civilians," said a spokesman for the kurds in kobani. residents examine a damaged mosque after an iraqi air force bombing in the isis-seized city of falluja, iraq, on sunday, may 31. at least six were killed and nine others wounded during the bombing. a member of afghanistan's security forces stands at the site where a suicide bomber on a motorbike blew himself up in front of the kabul bank in jalalabad, afghanistan, on saturday, april 18. isis claimed responsibility for the attack. the explosion killed at least 33 people and injured more than 100 others, a public health spokesman said. a yazidi woman mourns for the death of her husband and children by isis after being released south of kirkuk on april 8. isis is known for killing dozens of people at a time and carrying out public executions, crucifixions and other acts. on april 1, shiite militiamen celebrate the retaking of tikrit, which had been under isis control since june. the push into tikrit came days after u.s.-led airstrikes targeted isis bases around the city. a kurdish marksman looks over a destroyed area of kobani on friday, january 30, after the city had been liberated from the isis militant group. the syrian city, also known as ayn al-arab, had been under assault by isis since mid-september. isis militants stand near the site of an airstrike near the turkey-syria border on thursday, october 23. the united states and several arab nations have been bombing isis targets in syria to take out the militant group's ability to command, train and resupply its fighters. cundi minaz, a female kurdish fighter, is buried in a cemetery in the southeastern turkish town of suruc on tuesday, october 14. minaz was reportedly killed during clashes with isis militants in nearby kobani. a kurdish peshmerga soldier who was wounded in a battle with isis is wheeled to the zakho emergency hospital in duhuk, iraq, on tuesday, september 30. syrian kurds wait near a border crossing in suruc as they wait to return to their homes in kobani on sunday, september 28. aziza hamid, a 15-year-old iraqi girl, cries for her father while she and some other yazidi people are flown to safety monday, august 11, after a dramatic rescue operation at iraq's mount sinjar. a cnn crew was on the flight, which took diapers, milk, water and food to the site where as many as 70,000 people were trapped by isis. but only a few of them were able to fly back on the helicopter with the iraqi air force and kurdish peshmerga fighters.

hillary clinton explains why she won't say 'radical islam'

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here's an interesting factoid about contemporary policing: in 2014, for the first time ever, law enforcement officers took more property from american citizens than burglars did. martin armstrong pointed this out at his blog, armstrong economics, last week. officers can take cash and property from people without convicting or even charging them with a crime<u+00a0><u+2014> yes, really!<u+00a0><u+2014> through the highly controversial practice known as civil asset forfeiture. last year, according to the institute for justice, the treasury and justice departments deposited more than<u+00a0>$5 billion into their respective asset forfeiture funds. that same year, the fbi reports that burglary losses topped out at $3.5 billion. armstrong claims that<u+00a0>"the police are now taking more assets than the criminals," but this isn't exactly right: the fbi also tracks property losses from larceny and theft, in addition to plain ol' burglary. if you add up all the property stolen in 2014, from burglary, theft, motor vehicle theft and other means, you arrive at roughly $12.3 billion, according to the fbi. that's more than double the federal asset forfeiture haul. one other point: those asset forfeiture deposit amounts are not necessarily the best indicator of a<u+00a0>rise in the use of forfeiture. "in a given year, one or two high-dollar cases may produce unusually large amounts of money <u+2014> with a portion going back to victims <u+2014> thereby telling a noisy story of year-to-year activity levels," the institute for justice explains. a big chunk of that 2014 deposit, for instance, was the $1.7 billion bernie madoff judgment, most of which flowed back to the victims. for that reason, the net assets of the funds are<u+00a0>usually seen as a more stable indicator<u+00a0><u+2014> those numbers show how much money is left over in the funds each year<u+00a0>after<u+00a0>the federal government takes care of various obligations, like payments to victims. since this number can reflect monies taken over multiple calendar years, it's less comparable to the annual burglary statistics. still, even this more stable indicator hit $4.5 billion in 2014, according to the institute for justice<u+00a0><u+2014> higher again than the burglary losses that year. one final caveat is that these are only the federal totals and don't reflect how much property is seized by state and local police each year. reliable data for all 50 states is unavailable, but the institute of justice<u+00a0>found that the total asset forfeiture haul for 14 states topped $250 million in 2013. the grand 50-state total would probably be much higher. still, boil down all the numbers and caveats above and you arrive at a simple fact: in the united states, in 2014, more cash and property transferred hands via civil asset forfeiture than via burglary. the total value of asset forfeitures was<u+00a0>more than<u+00a0>one-third of the total value of property stolen by criminals in 2014. that represents something of a sea change in the way police do business<u+00a0><u+2014> and it's prompting plenty of scrutiny of<u+00a0>the practice. the surprising reason more police dogs are dying in the line of duty most americans don<u+2019>t realize it<u+2019>s this easy for police to take your cash police chases kill more people each year than floods, tornadoes, hurricanes and lightning <u+2014> combined

law enforcement took more stuff from people than burglars did last year

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the republican presidential candidates kicked off the 2016 election year on monday with a burst of new attacks and advertising <u+2013> including donald trump<u+2019>s first tv ad of the season <u+2013> as they entered the final sprint to iowa and new hampshire. as trump rolled out his tv spot in both early-voting states, ben carson released a new tax plan, just days after shaking up his struggling campaign. ted cruz was launching an aggressive 36-county tour across iowa, while marco rubio used a security speech monday in new hampshire to slam those who voted to rein in america<u+2019>s intelligence efforts. the speeches, the ads, the bus tours and the proposals all reflect an effort by the campaigns in the still-crowded field to effectively re-launch, with less than a month to go until the lead-off iowa caucuses, and after that the new hampshire primary. carson, who has endured a precipitous drop in the polls and switched up his top campaign staff last week, unveiled a plan monday to scrap the tax code and replace it with a 14.9 percent flat tax. <u+201c>no deductions, no loopholes -- it applies to everybody across the board,<u+201d> the retired neurosurgeon told fox news. once the darling of iowa conservatives, carson has seen his numbers plummet there as cruz, the texas senator, has shot to the front of the field <u+2013> nudging past trump. though trump still holds the lead in most new hampshire polls, the billionaire businessman is seeking to energize his bid by putting money behind his first tv ad of the race. his campaign announced it would be spending at least $2 million a week on the ad, split between iowa and new hampshire. the ad reprises trump<u+2019>s call to build a wall along the u.s.-mexico border and to take the islamic state<u+2019>s oil, but begins by defending the controversial proposal he made after the san bernardino terror attack to ban muslims from entering the u.s. the narrator in the ad says: <u+201c>the politicians can pretend it<u+2019>s something else but donald trump calls its radical islamic terrorism. that<u+2019>s why he<u+2019>s calling for a temporary shutdown of muslims entering the united states until we can figure out what<u+2019>s going on.<u+201d> trump isn<u+2019>t the only one talking tough in the final stretch. florida sen. rubio, at an american legion post in new hampshire, took an implicit shot at candidates like cruz in blasting lawmakers who voted to rein in the nsa <u+2013> while vowing to <u+201c>restore<u+201d> such intelligence programs. <u+201c>if isis had lobbyists in washington, they would have spent millions to support the anti-intelligence law that was just passed with the help of some republicans now running for president,<u+201d> rubio charged. he also blasted democratic front-runner hillary clinton as <u+201c>incompetent,<u+201d> and said, <u+201c>she has lied<u+201d> <u+2013> referring to her public explanations regarding the benghazi terror attack. keep the promise, a super pac supporting cruz, launched its own ad in iowa that mocked rubio over a video clip he put out in october joking about <u+201c>fantasy football<u+201d> <u+2013> the pro-cruz ad juxtaposes that against images of isis fighters and the refugee crisis to question his seriousness. cruz, meanwhile, is keeping a packed schedule as he launches a six-day, 36-county bus tour in the hawkeye state <u+2013> and tries to maintain his lead there. even the lower-polling candidates are taking another crack at breaking through. former pennsylvania sen. rick santorum, who won the iowa contest in 2012, launched his first tv ad in the state on monday <u+2013> also going after cruz. the ad starts with a clip of the texas senator reading a dr. seuss classic, "green eggs and ham," on the senate floor, which he did during a filibuster-like speech opposing obamacare in 2013. "you want someone to read one helluva bedtime story, ted cruz is your guy," a narrator says. "if you want to protect america, and defeat isis, rick santorum<u+2019>s your president. because serious times need serious people." santorum, though, is polling at under 1 percent in the state as cruz and trump maintain an unrivaled lead. new hampshire, by contrast, is a much tighter contest. no fewer than five candidates are jockeying closely for the position behind trump in the polls right now: rubio, cruz, new jersey gov. chris christie, ohio gov. john kasich, and former florida gov. jeb bush.

trump launches 1st tv ad, as 2016 candidates barnstorm iowa, nh

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more debates! fewer candidates! we're still talking about iowa! it's your thursday edition of for the record ... let's get to it! two more republican candidates dropped out of the race wednesday, leaving eight candidates (nine<u+00a0>if you count jim gilmore, but that's like counting pluto as still being a planet). senator rand paul is out, dealing a blow to anyone who wanted to make political donations solely in bitcoin; 2012 iowa caucus winner rick santorum also suspended his campaign. after careful consideration, santorum threw his 0.4% worth of influence at marco rubio, while paul says he won't make any endorsements in the primary<u+00a0><u+2014> though he says he'll<u+00a0>back the eventual republican nominee. for paul, he returns to kentucky to focus full-time on his re-election campaign for senate.<u+00a0>a few months back, paul said he'd give up to $500,000 to help pay for an early kentucky caucus, which would have enabled him to run both for president and senator for a few months longer (here's hoping he kept the receipt). rick santorum, meanwhile, is heading home to binge-watch<u+00a0>"touched by an angel" on netflix. on the<u+00a0>k<u+00fc>bler-ross model of grief, bernie sanders and donald trump are stuck on "denial" about the iowa results. (you might say that trump is on<u+00a0>"anger" but no, he's just<u+00a0>like that.) on the democratic side, the official results say hillary clinton edged sanders by 0.29%, one of the closest caucuses in iowa<u+00a0>history; still<u+00a0>team sanders is looking into how coin-flipping in some precincts<u+00a0>affected the ultimate outcome.<u+00a0>(one question still unanswered: if a coin landed on its edge, did those delegates go to martin o'malley?) on the republican side, donald trump is calling for a complete do-over<u+00a0>based on ted cruz staffers<u+00a0>spreading rumors that ben carson was dropping out of the race, and encouraging cruz's precinct captains to try to lure carson supporters to their side. trump is insisting<u+00a0>actually won the caucuses based on his strong pre-debate poll numbers. so why were the polls and caucus results different? experts are suggesting it was a strong get-out-the-vote effort by cruz, plus a number of last-minute deciders, plus the decline of land lines and the increase in cellphone use, which actually<u+00a0>makes a lot of sense because "sorry new phone who is this" was pulling in 8% support in late january. there's another democratic debate tonight<u+00a0>(9 p.m. est on msnbc), this time with only hillary and bernie<u+00a0>on the stage. o'malley, who dropped out of the race following the iowa caucuses, will see no significant decrease in speaking time. "but wait, this debate wasn't on the original schedule," said no normal person anywhere. it's true, this debate is one of four<u+00a0>added to the democratic debate schedule just as the race gets more heated.<u+00a0>yesterday the two campaigns argued over twitter about the definition of "progressive,"<u+00a0>a debate that spilled over into last night's town hall meeting in derry, new hampshire. the tl;dr version: sanders says clinton is too moderate<u+00a0>on military intervention, the financial industry and trade; clinton says compromise is needed because "(a)n<u+00a0>important part of being a progressive is making progress."<u+00a0>the fun part will be during the general election, when the democratic nominee will spend months telling the country how centrist and mainstream they are. if the political gods formed a human<u+00a0>out of campaign contributions and sadness and then made it run for president, this is what it would look like.

for the record: iowa, why can't we quit you?

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"he's done more to bring our education system -- sometimes kicking and screaming -- into the 21st century more than anybody else," obama said at a white house ceremony. "america is going to be better off for what he's done." duncan leaves the administration as the longest-serving education secretary in u.s. history, obama said. "it's a record that i truly believe that no other education secretary can match," he said. "arne bleeds this stuff. he cares so much about our kids. and he's been so passionate about this work." while speaking about the impact his parents -- both educators -- had on him, duncan got emotional. "all our lives we saw what kids could do when given a chance, and that's why we do this today," he said. obama has selected deputy secretary of education john b. king, jr. to replace him. in an internal memo to department of education staff, duncan cited the commute between his home and family in chicago in announcing his departure and called his job the "greatest honor of my life." "we have been lucky to have an a amazing team here from day one, but i honestly believe our team today is the strongest it's ever been," duncan wrote. "so it's with real sadness that (i) have come to recognize that being apart from my family has become too much of a strain, and it is time for me to step aside and give a new leader a chance." obama brought duncan with him to washington from chicago, where he served as the city's schools chief. he's long been one of the president's closest friends in the administration, their relationship forged in the days before either came to national prominence. duncan, along with obama's first chief of staff, rahm emanuel, and senior advisers valerie jarrett and david axelrod, formed a hometown crowd for the obamas when they arrived to the white house. jarrett remains in her post at the white house, though axelrod and emanuel have both returned to chicago -- emanuel as the city's mayor, and axelrod as chair of a politics institute at the university of chicago. education secretary arne duncan will step down in december, an administration official said friday, october 2. katherine archuleta, director of the office of personnel management, resigned july 10, a day after revealing a data breach of government computers was vastly larger than originally thought. margaret hamburg, commissioner of the food and drug administration, announced february 5 in an email to staff that she was stepping down after six years as commissioner. jennifer palmieri, obama's communications director, left in spring 2015. she now serves as the director of communications for hillary clinton's 2016 presidential campaign. dan pfeiffer, one of obama's chief strategists and closest advisers, departed from the white house in early march, officials confirmed. marilyn tavenner, the centers for medicare and medicaid services' top administrator who was involved in the roll-out of obamacare, announced in an email to staff that she was resigning at the end of february 2015. secret service director julia pierson resigned in october 2014 after multiple security breaches involving the president. the firestorm began after an intruder scaled the fence and entered the white house on september 19, 2014. gen. david petraeus stepped down as director of the cia on november 9, 2012, after an fbi investigation confirmed he was having an affair with his biographer, paula broadwell. he served the position for a little over a year. gen. eric shinseki resigned in may 2014 after it was revealed that veterans affairs administrators had conspired to cover up wait lists that were months long, leaving sick and dying veterans waiting for care. kathleen sebelius resigned as secretary of health and human services in april 2014 after months of backlash against her role in the faulty roll-out of healthcare.gov. shirley sherrod, a former official with the department of agriculture, was forced to resign from her position in 2010 after a conservative blogger published a video of her questioning whether to help a white man losing his farm since " so many black people lost their farm land" before him. when it was discovered that the video was taken out of context, the usda offered her another job, which she declined. in june 2010, obama relieved gen. stanley mcchrystal from his post as commander of u.s. forces in afghanistan after disparaging comments mcchrystal made against the administration in rolling stone magazine. three months after tareq and michaele salahi crashed a state dinner in november 2009, desiree rogers stepped down as white house social secretary. suzanne barr, a senior obama administration political appointee and longtime aide to homeland security secretary janet napolitano, resigned september 1, 2012, amid allegations of inappropriate sexual behavior lodged by at least three immigration and customs enforcement employees. duncan said he had not made a decision about his next steps besides spending time with his family and added that he expected to find work that involved "expanding opportunity for children." "over the years that i have known him, and especially in the months we have worked together here, i've come to recognize john as one of the most passionate, courageous, clear-headed leaders in our field," duncan said. duncan's departure means agriculture secretary tom vilsack will be the sole remaining cabinet-level secretary who has been with obama since 2009. obama's office of management and budget director shaun donovan started in 2009 as his housing and urban development secretary. in the early days of the administration, duncan and obama often played pickup basketball on the weekends in washington <u+2014> duncan is among the group of close obama confidantes who participated in the president's election day pickup game in 2012 -- though obama's days on the court have waned in favor of days on the golf course. as education secretary, duncan pushed reforms to improve the quality of education, including advocating for the controversial common core requirements. many republicans say the requirements provide unnecessary federal interference in school curriculum. he also implemented the administration's "race to the top" funding program that has states compete for federal school funding, as well as gone after for-profit colleges for predatory practices.

education secretary arne duncan stepping down

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as harris lay struggling and dying, he told the surrounding officers, <u+201c>i<u+2019>m losing my breath.<u+201d> one officer yelled back at him, <u+201c>fuck your breath!<u+201d> then he insisted that the dying man be handcuffed. <u+201c>fuck your breath!<u+201d> encapsulates in only three words the systemic disregard that police regularly show to black people in america. just last week, we watched michael slager execute walter scott in south carolina for daring to run away. now this week, we are also tuning into the trial of former chicago police officer dante servin, who is charged with involuntary manslaughter in the killing of 22-year-old rekia boyd in march 2012. in the cases of eric garner in staten island, tamir rice in cleveland, walter scott in south carolina, and eric harris in tulsa, we have seen video of law enforcement officers not only critically injuring citizens but also refusing to administer medical care, with fatal consequences. given the origins of policing in this country and their connections to slave patrols and other forms of racialized social control, i am under no illusions that the police have ever held black life in high regard. police complicity and participation in lynchings and in the kkk make that clear. but the explicit, tacit refusal of black people<u+2019>s right to breathe is still significant. the fact that the tulsa county sheriff<u+2019>s office is a pay-to-play force is significant. the fact that white men can sign up with government approval for the right to play cops and robbers on the weekends is appalling. that black lives provide fodder for state-sanctioned sport should have us in the streets. there is something about the logics of self-governance under the terms of neoliberalism that make this moment feel more pessimistic than our trite narrative of linear progress on racial issues would have us conclude. in 2012, the united arab emirates gave $1 million to the new york city police foundation. according to an nypd spokesperson, the money was used to upgrade equipment and aid in criminal investigations. in both new york city and tulsa, private funding of law enforcement significantly impacts the way local policing is done. in tulsa, it results in the pay-to-play scheme. in new york city, it allows for large infusions of cash donations whose specific uses do not come under public scrutiny because they are private funds. these forms of neoliberal policing <u+2014> in which private citizens and private monies impact the culture of policing but escape governmental checks and balances <u+2014> endanger us all. in new york, such actions enable the purchase of unspecified forms of <u+201c>equipment<u+201d> that might, for instance, be used to exacerbate the culture of militarized policing in the nypd.<u+00a0> part of this money allows the nypd to travel to the uae to learn counterterrorism measures. in the wake of 9/11, some external training might be helpful, but essentially, this sounds like a case of the nypd being allowed money to play global cops and robbers, and to then test out these tactics on the black and brown people who are policed heavily within the city. in the case of tulsa, this privately underwritten form of law enforcement placed an underprepared <u+201c>pretend<u+201d> deputy into a serious confrontation. as a result, eric harris lost his life. but he did not just lose his breath. as he lay dying, he was refused the right to breathe. that refusal came in a chorus of other taunts about how he was getting what he deserved because he chose to run. his breath seeped out of his black body as public service officers taunted him in a barrage of profanity. why is the refusal of breath to black people endemic to the american condition? what about the black body makes the life-breath that we all hold so dear <u+2014> so sacred <u+2014> such a profane and devalued thing in the hands of white people? in 1977, the famous writer and american prophet james baldwin returned to america after living in france for more than three decades. in an interview at the new york times, he said: <u+201c>i left america because i had to. it was a personal decision. i wanted to write, and it was the 1940<u+2019>s, and it was no big picnic for blacks. i grew up on the streets of harlem, and i remember president roosevelt, the liberal, having a lot of trouble with an anti- lynching bill he wanted to get through the congress<u+2013>never mind the vote, never mind restaurants, never mind schools, never mind a fair employment policy. i had to leave; i needed to be in a place where i could breathe and not feel someone<u+2019>s hand on my throat.<u+201d> baldwin names a moment that sounds similar to our own. the vote is insecure from racial tampering. indiana has just passed legislation that allows businesses (including eateries) to discriminate against customers based on <u+201c>religious<u+201d> assessments of their fitness to be served. our public schools are in abysmal condition and throughout the country fast food workers are waging the fight-for-fifteen, a campaign for a $15 minimum wage. baldwin illuminates for us the way that america exists as a place predicated on the refusal of black breath and the denial of black people<u+2019>s right to move freely in the world without losing our lives for having a broken taillight or playing with a toy gun, or for standing on the street chatting with friends. this refusal of breath is not only anti-black, but multigenerational, and harder to combat because of the way neoliberalism and acts of privatization have invaded police forces. as eric harris<u+2019> breath left him, other officers reminded him that <u+201c>you ran!<u+201d> similar charges were levied against walter scott by pundits and commentators last week. <u+201c>why did he run?<u+201d> neoliberal structures of self-governance demand that we all control ourselves and <u+201c>do the right thing,<u+201d> in order to avoid negative consequences. meanwhile, the conditions that enable us to actually do the right thing continue to slip away. walter scott ran because as a poor black man who was in arrears on his child support, he did not want to be subject to a long prison sentence and fines he could not pay. the sense of precariousness about not being able to enjoy simple pleasures, like going for a ride on the weekend because you might find yourself in prison interminably for bills you can<u+2019>t pay, is surely not just. these are not justifications for walter scott<u+2019>s wrongdoing. they are reminders that many of us manage to do the right thing because we live in conditions that allow us to pay bills, adequately support our children, and find sufficient employment. many, many americans, a disproportionate number of them americans of color, do not live in such conditions. yelling at them or executing them for making bad choices in a system that offers limited options shows us how often we miss the point. under this kind of logic, the supposed lack of control of working-class black and brown people justifies the stultifying overpolicing of our communities, the stranglehold of our prison system saddling black people with jail time, fines, probation, parole and a constant sense of threat, and finally, the ultimate refusal of one<u+2019>s breath by a trigger-happy police officer if you fail to submit in any way to this unjust state of affairs. something must change. for we are all losing our collective breath. we all watch as the police and the state communicate their clear disregard for the value of black life. the weight of historical injustice and present injustice constricts, makes us writhe in agony, makes us go out to protest. that the officers in each of these three killings are being tried is nothing to celebrate. we do not celebrate our country for doing the right thing. charging those who unjustly kill others with murder or manslaughter is basic. figuring out how to let black people live is apparently far more complicated.

blood money, killer cops: how privatization is funding the racist logic of america<u+2019>s police

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"i'm not going anywhere, i'm leading every poll and i'm going to make our country great again," trump told cnn's chris cuomo on "new day" on tuesday morning. "i'm not getting out. i'm going to win, ok?" trump added. "the answer is: i'm going all the way and i'm going to win." trump said sunday on nbc's "meet the press" that he would get out of the race if his poll numbers plummeted and he had no chance of winning, setting off speculation among pundits that trump might soon drop out of the gop presidential contest. trump remains the leading contender for the gop nomination in all the major polls, but that lead has slipped in recent weeks as contenders like retired neurosurgeon ben carson and businesswoman carly fiorina gain on the billionaire candidate. the latest poll in iowa from nbc news/wall street journal shows trump leading carson by just 5 points, down from a double-digit lead just weeks ago. and in new hampshire, trump's lead has also slipped to 5 points ahead of fiorina -- down from 10 points just two weeks ago. trump also took the opportunity tuesday to once again slam sen. marco rubio, r-florida, as a "total lightweight" and even knocked rubio for past financial difficulties: "take a look at his past, he's got $12 in the bank." "rubio is not the guy that's going to be negotiating with the kinds of people you have to negotiate with to turn this country around," trump said. related: first on cnn: trump sent prank care package to rubio trump has been jabbing at the rubio campaign in recent weeks, as the florida senator got positive reviews for his debate performance last month and has risen in the polls. his campaign sent a case of "trump ice natural spring water" to rubio's headquarters, a dig at the time floridian who once took a memorable gulp from a water bottle while giving the republican response to president barack obama's state of the union address. later on tuesday, the republican also defended his support for eminent domain, which allows government to seize private land and pays the owners in return. some conservatives, such as the influential club for growth, which is attacking trump for his position , oppose the power in order to protect property rights. "eminent domain -- when it comes to jobs, roads, the public good -- i think it's a wonderful thing," trump told fox news' bret baier. "i fully understand the conservative approach, but i don't think it was explained to most conservatives."

trump vows to win: 'i'm not going anywhere'

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(cnn) the state department announced friday that it will not release 22 emails from former secretary of state hillary clinton because they contain "top secret" information, the highest level of government classification. the decision, coming three days before the iowa caucuses, could provide fodder for clinton's political opponents, especially republicans, who are likely to make note of the emails' "top secret" designation. clinton's email use has haunted her on the campaign trail since it became public early last year that she maintained a private server while leading the state department. state department spokesman john kirby said the documents, totaling 37 pages, were not marked classified at the time they were sent, but are being upgraded at the request of the intelligence community because they contain sensitive information. but, kirby said, a separate review by the bureaus of diplomatic security and intelligence and research is being held into whether the information in the emails was classified at the time they were sent and received. he would not say when the review began or how long it would go, and acknowledged it's possible there could be classified emails that weren't marked as such. "it's certainly possible that for any number of reasons, traffic can be sent that's not marked appropriately for its classification. that is certainly possible," kirby said. but he added that he wasn't going to make any judgments about this particular case. "all i can tell you definitively is it wasn't marked classified at the time it was sent," kirby said. a senior state department official said the review "began very recently" and was initiated by the state department, but the official wouldn't say what prompted it. a spokesperson for the intelligence community's inspector general declined to comment. kirby also said 18 emails, comprised of eight email chains between clinton and president barack obama, are being "withheld in full" to "protect the president's ability to receive unvarnished advice and counsel." but, kirby said, they "have not been determined to be classified" and said they will "ultimately be released in accordance with the presidential records act." "i'd love for people to see what i did and i hope that will happen," she said. brian fallon, a spokesman for clinton's campaign, said in a statement that friday's announcement was a case of "over-classification run amok" and reiterated clinton's position that the emails be made public. but later friday, fallon declined to say whether clinton would ask obama to declassify the emails when pressed by cnn's wolf blitzer on "the situation room." "the president easily could declassify all of these emails if she asked him and if he agreed, right?" blitzer asked. "i'd really be surprised if this has risen to the president's level," fallon replied. "because, again, this a mundane matter of fulfilling a foia request." asked friday if he had "certainty and confidence" that clinton will not be indicted over the email controversy, white house press secretary josh earnest said any decision to prosecute clinton would rest with the justice department. "that is a decision to be made solely by independent prosecutors," earnest said. "but again, based on what we know from the department of justice, it does not seem to be headed in that direction." the state department released more than 900 of clinton's emails friday -- 242 of which received classification upgrades: 11 to "secret" and 209 more to "confidential," along with the 22 emails containing "top secret" information -- but the release fell well behind the judge-imposed timetable for producing all of her emails. among the most interesting correspondence: this month's release was supposed to be the final one and include just over 9,000 pages of documents -- the largest number to date. that delay was then compounded by a huge snowstorm that shut down the federal government for several days, according to the state department's motion. several prominent republicans, including presidential hopefuls, quickly condemned clinton, the democratic 2016 front-runner, over friday's developments. "the new e-mail release is a disaster for hillary clinton. at a minimum, how can someone with such bad (judgment) be our next president?" gop front-runner donald trump tweeted. florida sen. marco rubio said clinton's email use was a "disqualifier" for the white house. "hillary clinton put some of the highest, most sensitive intelligence information on her private server because maybe she thinks she's above the law," rubio said at a town hall event in clinton, iowa. texas sen. ted cruz told conservative radio host hugh hewitt that clinton's email controversy would seriously imperil her presidential aspirations. "we are talking about serious offenses for which the obama justice department threw the book at general (david) petraeus," cruz said. "and justice needs to be enforced fairly and impartially." and republican national committee chairman reince priebus tweeted that clinton and the obama administration have "obfuscated and misled at every available opportunity," adding that she has "removed all doubt that she cannot be trusted with the presidency." but rep. adam schiff, d-california, the ranking democrat on the house intelligence committee, said classification determinations "are often very complex." "it's important to remember that none of these emails had any classification markings at the time they were sent, and secretary clinton and her staff were responding to world events in real time without the benefit of months of analysis after the fact," schiff said. meanwhile, clinton's top democratic 2016 rival, vermont sen. bernie sanders, said in a statement that "there is a legal process in place which should proceed and not be politicized." "the american people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails," he said then to applause.

state department will not release 22 'top secret' clinton emails

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on this day in 1973, j. fred buzhardt, a lawyer defending president richard nixon in the watergate case, revealed that a key white house tape had an 18...

hillary's iowa reset: is it enough?

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top dems want white house to call off part b demo <u+2014> the next cancer drug shortage

gop leadership race gets personal

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donald trump believes he won the first presidential debate. he<u+2019>s proclaimed that publicly and told me so himself. some of his advisers disagree, and they believe his debate prep was something of a disaster. one well-placed source told me that there were too many people in the room during these sessions, as many as a dozen at a time, and some, including two generals, had no experience with debates or even campaigns. the result was that the candidate got lots of conflicting advice on what to say and do from a team that hadn<u+2019>t even agreed internally on the best strategies. i<u+2019>m also told that paul ryan and mitch mcconnell, hardly unabashed trump fans, provided debate advice by phone. the result, in this source<u+2019>s view, is that trump was overprepared, which left him without a clear plan to deliver his message or respond to hillary clinton<u+2019>s jibes. a harsher indictment was delivered to the new york times, one in which trump advisers attempted to blame the boss. it<u+2019>s striking that they would criticize their candidate from behind a curtain of anonymity. in effect, they<u+2019>re saying, hey, don<u+2019>t blame us, we tried to tell him but he wouldn<u+2019>t listen. or viewed another way, they are using the press to send him a message that he needs to change his approach for the second debate in st. louis. now much of this is inside baseball. hillary clinton is widely credited, even by many conservative commentators, as having delivered a strong performance at hofstra and kept her opponent on the defensive. she will probably get a polling bump of a couple of points. but trump<u+2019>s supporters remain in in his corner after watching him go toe-to-toe with a former secretary of state without committing a major gaffe. when campaigns are in a tailspin, loyalty sometimes melts as its consultants and strategists scramble to salvage their own reputations at the boss<u+2019> expense. but trump, against all the odds set by the pundits, is in an extremely competitive race against clinton and could win the thing. <u+201c>campaign advisers to donald j. trump, concerned that his focus and objectives had dissolved during the first presidential debate on monday, plan to more rigorously prepare him for his next face-off<u+201d><u+2014>but that <u+201c>whether he is open to practicing meticulously is a major concern.<u+201d> yes, that is the sound of some folks throwing the nominee under the bus. these unnamed sources <u+201c>were privately awash in second-guessing about why he stopped attacking mrs. clinton on trade and character issues and instead grew erratic, impatient and subdued as the night went on. in interviews, seven campaign aides and advisers, most of whom sought anonymity to speak candidly, expressed frustration and discouragement over their candidate<u+2019>s performance.<u+201d> the gang of seven is clearly ticked off. the last time this kind of internal carping hit the press, during the <u+201c>let trump be trump<u+201d> debate, paul manafort was gone and steve bannon and kellyanne conway were tapped to run the show. trump<u+2019>s fans are angry at the media coverage portraying him as having lost the debate, at least according to my twitter feed. and who knows? it<u+2019>s not like the press hasn<u+2019>t been repeatedly wrong about trump. but a story in which some of trump<u+2019>s own advisers are anonymously quoted as saying he was <u+201c>erratic<u+201d> in a debate watched by 84 million people doesn<u+2019>t help the cause. even if the times reporters sought out these sources, you don<u+2019>t usually see hillary advisers anonymously griping about their candidate. even successful campaigns go through near-death experiences. clinton was sliding in the polls through her pneumonia period and democrats were starting to panic. in the end, the burden is on trump himself, and not his inner circle, to find a way to win. --howard dean standing by his ludicrous suggestion that donald trump might have a coke problem makes me want to ... scream. it<u+2019>s outrageous for a doctor, ex-governor and former presidential candidate and party chairman to act like a smear merchant. kudos to msnbc<u+2019>s joe scarborough for calling on his colleague to apologize. --a former chris christie ally, david wildstein, has testified that the governor laughed when he told him the george washington bridge lanes were being closed as an act of political retaliation. i don<u+2019>t know if that<u+2019>s true, and the former presidential candidate has denied it, but imagine if trump had chosen christie as his running mate. howard kurtz is a fox news analyst and the host of "mediabuzz" (sundays 11 a.m. and 5 p.m. et). he is the author of five books and is based in washington. follow him at @howardkurtz. click here for more information on howard kurtz.

frustrated trump advisers pan him for lousy debate prep (anonymously)

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the first nine months of 2013 have convinced us of one thing: rand paul acts, and the rest of the potential 2016 republican presidential field reacts. on drones, the senator from kentucky led a 13-hour filibuster that drew sen. marco rubio (r-fla.), among others, to the floor in support. on syria, paul was out front in his opposition to a military strike <u+2014> a position that more than two dozen of his republican senate colleagues came to share. paul, in short, seems to be a step or two in front of the ongoing transformation of the republican party from a hawkish conservatism to a sort of populist libertarianism. that<u+2019>s not to say, of course, that significant strains of resistance to the vision of the republican party that paul is offering don<u+2019>t remain. they do. and it remains to be seen whether the establishment, such as it is <u+2014> elected officials and major donors, primarily <u+2014> can unite to keep paul from the nomination in favor of a politically <u+201c>safer<u+201d> choice such as rubio or new jersey gov. chris christie. and paul, as he showed with his civil rights comments during his 2010 senate campaign in kentucky, holds some controversial views that can <u+2014> and will <u+2014> get him into trouble in the glare of the national spotlight. but anyone who laughs at paul as a serious contender, dismisses him as just a carbon copy of his father <u+2014> former representative ron paul (r-tex.) <u+2014> or otherwise writes him off would do well to study the year in politics so far. no one in the gop has had a better year than paul. and it<u+2019>s not all that close. below are our rankings of the 10 candidates with the best chance of winding up as the republican presidential nominee. while this should go without saying, making predictions in 2013 about 2016 is something short of purely scientific. 10. mike pence: the indiana governor is flying way under the radar at the moment, but he has the makings of a potential 2016 dark horse. social and fiscal conservatives like him, he<u+2019>s a charismatic communicator and, perhaps most important, he doesn<u+2019>t work in washington. 9. john kasich: the ohio governor<u+2019>s poll numbers have recovered remarkably well from his first few years in office, and he now looks like a modest favorite for reelection against much-touted democratic nominee ed fitzgerald. if kasich wins in 2014, he has a case to make as a swing-state midwestern governor who previously served as the chairman of the house budget committee and who ran, albeit briefly, for president in 2000. 8. bobby jindal: we believe that jindal<u+2019>s stock was probably a bit too high a year ago and is now a bit too low. his numbers in louisiana still aren<u+2019>t great, but they are better than earlier this year. jindal<u+2019>s decision to reject medicaid expansion under the affordable care act will be a feather in his cap among conservative presidential-primary voters. 7. scott walker : the wisconsin governor may have a bit more of a reelection race on his hands than he originally thought with wealthy former trek executive mary burke running for the democratic nomination. and we hear from reliable wisconsin sources that rep. paul ryan (r-wis.) is more interested in running than we believed. if ryan runs, it<u+2019>s hard to see walker also getting in. 6. ted cruz : cruz is the biggest attraction among rank-and-file republicans at the moment. he evokes genuine passion among the base <u+2014> and that<u+2019>s not ever to be underestimated. but it<u+2019>s also worth remembering that rep. michele bachmann (r-minn.) held that title once upon a time, and she held it much closer to the time when people were actually set to cast votes for president. 5. jeb bush: this is our holding-pattern ranking for the former florida governor. if he announces that he<u+2019>s running or even that he<u+2019>s moving toward running <u+2014> heck, we<u+2019>d take a bush trip to iowa, new hampshire or south carolina <u+2014> then he is probably our no.<u+00a0>1 on the list. 4. paul ryan: see the note above about our previous underestimating of ryan<u+2019>s interest in running. the coming fights over the government shutdown and raising the debt ceiling are ready-made for ryan and will (re)increase his profile nationally. we still are skeptical that he has the political chops to run a two-year-plus campaign for the republican nomination, though. 3. marco rubio: rubio<u+2019>s front-runner status has clearly come into question in the aftermath of his work to pass comprehensive immigration reform through the senate. the bill<u+2019>s fate remains decidedly uncertain in the gop-controlled house and is still not popular among the party<u+2019>s grass roots. for those who write off rubio because of immigration, however, go back and watch his speech at the 2012 republican national convention. he is someone of considerable political talent. 2. chris christie: yes, christie has something of a base problem given the false idea that he somehow cost mitt romney the 2012 election because of his embrace of president obama after hurricane sandy. but christie<u+2019>s regular-guy populism is a nice fit for the times. 1. rand paul: he<u+2019>s not a clear front-runner. but, if you are looking for a candidate who can (a) raise the money, (b) has a clear and compelling message and (c) has an obvious edge in an early state (iowa), then paul is the only person in the top three who checks all three boxes. we repeat what we said above: underestimate him at your peril.

don<u+2019>t underestimate rand paul as a 2016 presidential contender

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russian military might joined french warplanes tuesday as the two nations struck back at the islamic state four days after terror teams carried out coordinated attacks in paris, leaving 129 people dead. 10 french fighter jets carried out new airstrikes on isis targets in syria, according to french defense minister jean-yves le drian. also, twelve russian long-range bombers including supersonic tu-22m <u+201c>backfires<u+201d> flew from a base in mozdok, russia near the border of georgia and azerbaijan and launched cruise missiles inside raqqa, a u.s. official with knowledge of the mission told fox news. the supersonic bombers flew over the caspian sea, iran, iraq and into syria before unleashing a volley of cruise missiles into raqqa.<u+00a0>the u.s. military is still assessing the damage. a defense official in the middle east tells fox news that despite the countries' shared objective of targeting isis, it is <u+201c>highly unlikely<u+201d> the french and russians coordinated their strikes. that official also said he did not think the french would communicate with the russians in secret. fox news is told russia did inform the u.s. before launching the new assault. the official characterized the russian effort as <u+201c>not devastating.<u+201d> the islamic state group has claimed responsibility for the crash of a russian passenger plane over egypt last month, killing 224 people. on tuesday, russia's security service said a homemade explosive device brought down the airliner, calling it a "terrorist" act. cruise missiles were also fired monday from the caspian sea from russian navy missile boats, some of the same vessels which launched a similar salvo into syria last month. russia's defense minister also said its warplanes fired cruise missiles on militant positions in syria's idlib and aleppo provinces. sergei shoigu told reporters the missiles were fired from tu-160 and tu-95 warplanes. the islamic state has positions in aleppo province, whereas idlib has the presence of the nusra militant group. meantime, president vladimir putin ordered the russian missile cruiser moskva, currently in the mediterranean, to start cooperating with the french military on operations in syria. putin said a french aircraft carrier task force is to approach the moskva soon and the cruiser is to "cooperate with them as with allies." germany and italy ruled out any role in the air campaign against isis in syria. german foreign minister frank-walter steinmeier said "it doesn't make sense if we add to the 16 nations which are carrying out air attacks." germany is providing weapons and equipment to kurdish fighters battling isis in northern iraq. steinmeier said it "was the right strategy" because they are holding ground and making "slight territorial gains." italian defense minister roberta pinotti said her country was already planning to beef up its actions in iraq. while ruling out an italian military role in syria, she said italy "assured france of its maximum availability" in other cooperation. also tuesday, france invoked a never-before-used article of the eu's lisbon treaty obliging members of the 28-nation bloc to give "aid and assistance by all the means in their power" to a member country that is "the victim of armed aggression on its territory." french defense minister jean-yves le drian said eu partners could help "either by taking part in france's operations in syria or iraq, or by easing the load or providing support for france in other operations." the airstrikes came as the wall street journal, citing two western security officials, reported that 27-year-old abdelhamid abaaoud had been sought as a target for an airstrike, but could not be located. a western intelligence official told the paper that efforts to monitor communications between abaaoud in syria and jihadists in europe were complicated by an inability to tell whether abaaoud or his teenage brother was speaking. abaaoud was named by french officials as the key figure suspected of planning and organizing the paris attacks, which included a series of suicide bombings outside the country's national stadium and a massacre at a concert hall. he came to public notice in belgium last year for taking his then 13-year-old brother with him to syria and appearing in an isis propaganda video in which he boasted about his pride in piling the dead bodies of "infidel" enemies into a trailer. at some point, abaaoud returned to belgium, only to escape the authorities in january of this year after police foiled a plot to attack officers he had masterminded on behalf of a cell based in the belgian town of verviers. in the ensuing gun battle, two of abaaoud's alleged accomplices were killed, but abaaoud somehow escaped. he told the monthly isis magazine dabiq in its february issue that he slipped away from european intelligence agencies because <u+201c>allah blinded their vision." he added, "my name and picture were all over the news, yet i was able to stay in their homeland, plan operations against them and leave safely when doing so became necessary." french officials who identified abaaoud as a prime suspect to the associated press cited chatter from isis figures that abaaoud had recommended a concert as an ideal target for inflicting maximum casualties, as well as electronic communications between abaaoud and one of the paris attackers who blew himself up. western officials told the journal they had no knowledge of the planned attacks on the french capital as they sought abaaoud, and admitted they did not know whether his death would have been enough to stop the attacks, which were carried out by seven suicide attackers, including a set of three brothers. a belgian official told the journal "it is certain" that abaaoud knew salah abdeslam, who was being hunted by authorities across europe early tuesday on suspicion of his having been involved in the paris terror. the two jihadists grew up not far from each other in the brussels suburb of molenbeek and spent time in the same prison for petty crimes. people in paris fought back in their own way -- by continuing to eat, drink and be merry. bar and restaurant owners urged people to return to their local nightspots tuesday, relaying the message online and on social media with the slogan "tous au bistrot" -- everyone to the bistro. the message is backed by restaurant website le fooding, which says people should go out to pay tribute to the victims, support the food and drink industry and show that "france will not give in to fear." other parisians are posting pictures on twitter of themselves on the city's many cafe and restaurant patios, using the hashtag #jesuisauterrasse -- i'm on the patio. fox news' lucas tomlinson and the associated press contributed to this report. click for more from the wall street journal.

russia joins france striking isis stronghold in syria

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the popular conservative argument that george w. bush "kept us safe" from terrorism has always been somewhat undermined by the fact that the vast majority of domestic terrorism deaths in american history occurred while bush was in office. but it turns out that it took donald trump to offer an argument that democrats<u+00a0>have always shied away from,<u+00a0>telling bloomberg tv,<u+00a0>"when you talk about george bush, i mean, say what you want, the world trade center came down during his time." as phrased by trump, the argument is provocative to the point of poor taste, but in attempting to rebut it, jeb bush went and made exactly the explicit claim that the doctrine of "bush kept us safe" has always avoided <u+2014> that the period of time during which bush kept us safe includes 9/11 itself. pre-jeb, nobody made the argument in that way, because it's obviously ridiculous. instead, kept-us-safe-ism has tended to indulge in the fantasy that bush was inaugurated in mid-september 2001 rather than early late january. through this metaphysical sleight of hand, the events of 9/11 themselves neither refute nor bolster the notion that the bush years were a time of safety. with his clumsy effort to parry trump, however, jeb has given away the whole game. after all, "we" clearly were not safe on 9/11.

jeb bush just proved that dubya was the smart one all along

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hillary clinton<u+2019>s historic moment finally arrived on tuesday night, accompanied by an intensely personal speech from her husband bill, that sought to recast her image as a symbol of the political establishment. <u+201c>she<u+2019>s the best darn change-maker i ever met in my life,<u+201d> insisted the former president, recalling decades of hillary clinton<u+2019>s work as a social radical. <u+201c>this woman has never been satisfied with the status quo in anything.<u+201d> on a night when she became the first woman to be nominated by a major party to run for the white house, hillary clinton fully embraced the historic significance of the occasion. she joined the party by live satellite link from new york to the accompanying sound of breaking glass, disrupting a black and white montage of the 44 male presidents of the united states who have gone before her. <u+201c>i can<u+2019>t believe we just put the biggest crack in that glass ceiling yet,<u+201d> said clinton. <u+201c>if there are any little girls out there who stayed up late to watch, can i just say, i may become the first woman president but one of you is next.<u+201d> amid a growing populist challenge from republican donald trump and scenes of revolt from some bernie sanders supporters, her husband<u+2019>s powerfully persuasive speech may go some way to restoring momentum to the campaign. <u+201c>hillary will make us stronger together,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>you know it, because she spent a lifetime doing it. i hope you will do it. i hope you will elect her. those of us who have more yesterdays than tomorrows tend to think more about our children and grandchildren.<u+201d> the speech capped a pivotal day for the party, as it sought to move on from scenes of division, and capitalise on clinton<u+2019>s symbolic breakthrough. she will address the crowd directly on thursday in a formal acceptance of the nomination but for now, speeches first from michelle obama and now from bill clinton have done the most to counter a much darker vision of america presented by republican candidate donald trump. <u+201c>if she wins she<u+2019>s coming back for you to take you along on the ride for america<u+2019>s future,<u+201d> said former president clinton as he recalled campaigning with coalminers in west virginia and urged to the party to do more to create more new jobs in the us economy. it was almost the only overtly political message of his own. in contrast with past speeches, where the former president has risked overshadowing the campaign, this one sounded more like the personal speeches made by the wives of male candidates. in an azure blue tie that picked out the colours of the arena, and with his hands shaking slightly, clinton delivered a highly personal account of their courtship and marriage that seemed at times to be an attempt to make america fall in love with the girl he first met in the spring of 1971. skipping over the awkward moments in a very public, and at times visibly flawed, marriage, clinton instead said: <u+201c>i married my best friend,<u+201d> recalling two failed proposal attempts and then describing when clinton<u+2019>s water broke during her pregnancy with chelsea <u+2013> undoubtedly a first in a speech about a us presidential candidate. <u+201c>the first time i saw her was in a class on political and civil rights <u+2026> [she had] big blond hair, big glasses, wore no makeup and exuded a sense that i found magnetic,<u+201d> said a clearly infatuated and somewhat awed clinton. <u+201c>i knew i might be starting something i couldn<u+2019>t stop.<u+201d> after spending nearly an hour describing her political and personal accomplishments he turned only briefly to her opponent. and he issued a direct challenge to the two-dimensional <u+201c>cartoon<u+201d> image of his wife which had been painted by her political foes. <u+201c>how does this square with what you heard at the republican convention? one is real, the other is made up,<u+201d> said bill. <u+201c>you just have to decide which is which my fellow americans <u+2026> good for you, because earlier today you nominated the real one.<u+201d> the well-received speech, seeking to rewrite the accepted wisdom about her candidacy, may help galvanise the campaign in much the same way bill clinton helped revive barack obama<u+2019>s listless 2012 effort. but the space was created by another reconcilation between competing democrats earlier in the evening. bernie sanders left the arena with his head held high on tuesday. in contrast to the chaotic scenes of protest from his supporters that marred attempts at unity on day one, the room largely came together for the historic night, with few boos at all. the healing was helped by fresh opportunities for the sanders campaign to celebrate its success and vow to continue its fight for more radical social reform. <u+201c>because this is a movement fuelled by love it can never be stopped or defeated,<u+201d> said hawaii congresswoman tulsi gabbard as she formally proposed sanders for the nomination. shortly before calling for a suspension of the rules to move directly to the nomination of his former rival, sanders appeared emotional as he listened to his tearful brother larry announce delegates from the democrats abroad primary. the pageant of democracy hid some controversy too. a small group of sanders supporters staged a sit-in of the media centre, largely in protest at the party<u+2019>s use of superdelegates to bolster clinton<u+2019>s margin of victory in states where sanders won the most votes. clinton was at home watching events from her new york state home in chappaqua, but her daughter chelsea was on hand in a venue packed with rising female stars from the democratic party and wider us society. former secretary of state madeleine albright, herself a noted breaker of glass ceilings, received one of the warmest welcomes of the evening for a commanding speech that listed clinton<u+2019>s foreign affairs experience. trump, she claimed, <u+201c>has already done damage just by running for president<u+201d>. oscar winner meryl streep signed off the night by asking: <u+201c>what does it take to be the first female anything? it takes grit and it takes grace.<u+201d> placing clinton in a lineage of great american women from rosa parks and amelia earhart to harriet tubman and eleanor roosevelt, she told the delegates: <u+201c>you people have made history and you<u+2019>re gonna make history again in november because hillary clinton will be our first woman president <u+2026> she<u+2019>ll be the first but she won<u+2019>t be the last.<u+201d> lena dunham, creator and star of the hbo series girls, led a series of celebrity endorsements that joined the dots between clinton<u+2019>s breaking of glass ceilings and trump<u+2019>s dismissive comments about women. <u+201c>according to donald trump, my body is probably like, a two,<u+201d> she began. <u+201c>his rhetoric about women takes us back to a time when we were meant to be beautiful and silent.<u+201d> <u+201c>donald trump is not making america great again; he is making america hate again,<u+201d> added fellow actor america ferrera, from the tv series ugly betty. california senator barbara boxer emerged on stage to the soundtrack from rocky, philadelphia<u+2019>s de facto theme tune. <u+201c>are you ready to elect the very first woman president of these united states of america?<u+201d> <u+201c>yes!<u+201d> came a reply that sounded less hesitant than usual, as confidence among democrats grows. some of the most powerful political messaging came via prepared video footage that interspersed live speakers with clips of trump: exposing his lack of respect for women, or damning him with his own words as he described pregnancy as an irritant for employers. there were also the first hints of the national security issues, which are likely to be a big feature of the latter part of week. republicans watching on television have criticised the philadelphia convention for ignoring pressing safety issues, in a stadium devoid of the usual flags that tend to dominate us political sets. survivors of the 9/11 attack on new york paid moving testimony to the support they received from clinton as a local senator. <u+201c>when new york needed her, she was there,<u+201d> said lauren manning, a burns victim whose emotional speech provided some of the most powerful character testimony yet. others tried a lighter tack in the campaign<u+2019>s conscious effort to try to humanise a candidate still regarded as aloof and chilly by some americans. kentucky secretary of state alison lundergan grimes began the night recalling that the soon-to-be nominee loves lifestyle tv <u+201c>and can devour buffalo wings<u+201d>. barbara mikulski said clinton would fight for <u+201c>macaroni and cheese<u+201d> issues, boasting again of her taste for down-to-earth food. there were echoes of a similar attempt to add colour to the larger-than-life media image of trump at last week<u+2019>s republican convention, as both campaigns grapple with the historically low favourability ratings of both candidates. but while trump was pictured as a ruthless winner by his business associates, clinton surrogates queued up to claim she was a people person <u+2013> the opposite of the public stereotype.

bill clinton makes powerful case for hillary in personal speech at the dnc

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the revival of middle-class jobs has been one of obama's mantras since he took office in 2009 fighting the worst economic crisis in generations. it was a major theme of his last state of the union address and is expected to feature in the one scheduled for tuesday. obama's administration can take credit for stabilizing the u.s. economy, which is growing again and last year added jobs at the fastest clip since 1999. but for the middle class the scars of the recession still run deep. federal reserve survey data show families in the middle fifth of the income scale now earn less and their net worth is lower than when obama took office. in the six years through 2013, over the recession and recovery that have spanned obama's tenure, jobs have been added at the top and bottom of the wage scale, a reuters analysis of labor statistics shows. in the middle, the economy has shed positions - whether in traditional trades like machining or electrical work, white-collar jobs in human resources, or technical ones like computer operators. the trend is in plain sight in dalton, georgia, a manufacturing hub 90 miles (145 kilometers)north of atlanta. massive factories that made it "the carpet capital of the world," were slammed by the collapse of the housing bubble. during the recession, with machines idle, they began investing heavily in new technology and are now laying plans to restore some lost jobs. but the new positions are more skewed to the high and low end, and there will be fewer of them per dollar of output than before the recession, said brian anderson, president of the greater dalton chamber of commerce. "we can produce a whole lot of new carpet with not a lot more people," anderson said. companies have spent between $1.5 and $2 billion on retooling and innovation, reducing demand for labor, while higher than average regional unemployment continued to hold down wages, he said. firms like flooring giant shaw industries pared jobs - dropping 5,000 from a pre-recession labor force of 28,000 - but with new technology have rebuilt revenue to near previous levels. the company is boosting wages for master mechanics to around $30 an hour, but feels no pressure to increase wages for the unskilled positions it retains. the heavy investment in robotics and mechanization has raised expectations, said paul richard, shaw's vice president of human resources. "it has put more emphasis on associates that can bring technical skills." ahead of obama's annual address, the business community is expecting the president to press for passage of the trans-pacific trade treaty, though a debate rages within the democratic party over whether that would create more middle class jobs than would be lost to increased imports. others say he may seek more overtime pay for mid-level salaried workers, propose a higher federal minimum wage, or renew calls for major infrastructure spending. obama has proposed expanded access to community college education and improved family leave policies, while some of his allies have called for an outright wealth transfer from the top to the middle. for obama's legacy none of that may matter. the forces at work in the american economy appear so entrenched that obama may be remembered as the president who pulled the nation from its worst downturn since the great depression, but failed to arrest deepening economic inequality. the federal reserve, under obama appointee janet yellen, has put money in almost all americans' pockets with near zero interest rates that have held down mortgage payments, allowed companies to reinvest, and boosted job creation. but the fed's survey of consumer finances shows how uneven the distribution of that stimulus has been. between 2010 and 2013, as recovery took hold and stock markets soared, the average net worth of families in the top 40 percent of income earners grew. for all others average net worth shrank, declining 19 percent for the middle fifth. similarly, the average earnings for families in the top 10 percent grew more than 9 percent from 2010 through 2013, while those at other levels stagnated or shrank. for the middle fifth, average earnings fell 4.6 percent. over the six years through 2013, the middle fifth's average annual family earnings fell to $47,243 from $53,008 while their average net worth dropped to $170,066 from $236,525. obama "had a good start in ending the recession and a good start to recovery and then we were knocked off that trajectory," said josh bivens, an economist with the economic policy institute, a left-leaning think tank that advocates higher minimum wages and other policies to boost incomes. bivens blamed the end of stimulus programs and a standoff in congress over the federal debt ceiling that curbed government spending for the loss of initial momentum. to a degree the administration has also been a captive of broad technological and global trends. automation and the offshoring of manufacturing and service jobs continue to transform industries and communities such as dalton. obama's changing rhetoric over time appears, increasingly, to acknowledge the magnitude of the challenge. in 2011, he called the erosion of middle class jobs a "sputnik moment" that should energize the country to out-produce and out-innovate the rest of the world. by last year, the tone was more tempered: "the cold, hard fact is that even in the midst of recovery, too many americans are working more than ever just to get by - let alone get ahead. and too many still aren't working at all," obama said in last year's state of the union address "our job is to reverse these trends. it won't happen right away."

middle class decline looms over final years of obama presidency

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the race for president, the battle for control of congress, and hundreds of state and local races are all being decided tuesday. here<u+2019>s a guide to help you sort through what<u+2019>s at stake and who might have the edge.

the 2016 election in 5 easy charts

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america's ongoing diversity explosion should be greeted with optimism because of the opportunities it presents for revitalizing our country, energizing our labor force and providing greater connectivity to the global economy. but there is a hidden danger lurking in the form of an emerging generation gap with strong racial overtones that, left unchecked, could become a significant obstacle to progress. this gap has been greatly inflamed by the rhetoric of the presidential primaries. its potential harm was illustrated in the canceled donald trump event earlier this month in chicago, which saw young people of mixed races protesting against the views of what one of them called "white suburbanites" who embrace, often angrily, a vision of america that would shut them out. with more than a subtle focus on race, each party's candidates have also been talking to different generations. hillary clinton emphasizes concern for children in flint, michigan, ending child poverty and deportation and reforming the criminal justice system. bernie sanders reaches out to young people concerned about student debt and jobs. in contrast, trump continues to talk tough on immigration and keeping out muslims, on maintaining traditional american values, backing strong policing and protecting the middle class from tax increases. these stances mirror generationally different attitudes revealed in a 2012 pew survey that showed that more than half of white baby boomers and seniors view the rise of newcomers from other countries as a threat to traditional american values and customs, a view that was held by a minority of the millennial generation born in the early 1980s to the early 2000s. generations are also divided on the role of government, with older people eschewing more services and higher taxes, and younger ones embracing the programs those services support.

america's racial generation gap takes an ugly political turn

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(cnn) first he ducks into the shower of his prison cell, fully clothed. then he leans down, but it's not clear what the infamous drug lord is doing; the short shower wall blocks him from the surveillance camera. seconds later, joaquin "el chapo" guzman gets back up, sits down on his cell bed and changes his shoes. he goes back into the shower and bends down again behind the wall -- but never resurfaces. guzman, mexico's most notorious drug kingpin, slipped through a hole under the shower and escaped through a mile-long tunnel to freedom, authorities said. and the newly released closed-circuit video shows how calmly and easily he did it. mexican interior minister miguel <u+00c1>ngel osorio chong said guzman's cell was videotaped 24 hours a day. but the surveillance had two blind spots for privacy -- the toilet and the shower. guzman didn't just evade the cameras; he also sidestepped another security measure with alarming ease. guzman had a bracelet that monitored his every move, the interior minister said. but he left the bracelet behind before he crawled into the tunnel. 'the hunt is back on' investigators on both sides of the u.s.-mexico border are searching for signs of the fugitive drug lord. but it's no easy task, a top drug enforcement administration official said. "the cartel headed by chapo is probably the most well-financed, vicious, criminal entity we have ever seen, with unlimited resources both to bribe, corrupt and to transport," deputy dea administrator jack riley said. "so our job in this particular case, as much as it was over year ago when we captured him, is to use every legal tool we can, cooperate with our counterparts, and hit the ground. the hunt is back on." the united states and mexico are exchanging intelligence -- including details from informants -- in the manhunt, and the united states is providing technical support, a mexican official said. reports claiming authorities from the two countries aren't working together simply aren't true, riley said. "chapo is hoping and planning on the fact that the good guys, the cops on both sides of the border, don't talk to each other, don't connect the dots," riley said. "and i'm here to tell you we're doing that better now than we have ever done it. and if i was him, i'd be looking over my shoulder." it's likely prison workers helped guzman break out, the interior minister told reporters. osorio chong said he has already fired the prison director and other prison officials. they released what they said was a recent picture of guzman, showing him with a shaved head and face -- but without his trademark mustache. how he did it the tunnel began with a 50-by-50-centimeter (20-by-20-inch) opening inside the shower of guzman's cell, rubido said. the tunnel stretched for about a mile and ended inside a half-built house. it's likely the sinaloa cartel had spent years infiltrating the country's prison system, a mexican official told cnn. whoever helped in the plot likely had the architectural plans for the prison that pointed them toward the shower area, the official said. and this wasn't the first time. nicknamed "shorty" for his height, guzman already had pulled off one elaborate escape from a maximum-security prison. in 2001, he managed to break free while reportedly hiding in a laundry cart. it took authorities 13 years to catch him -- closing in as he was sleeping at a mexican beach resort. the sinaloa cartel moves drugs by land, air and sea, including cargo aircraft, private aircraft, buses, fishing vessels and even submarines, the u.s. justice department has said. guzman has been a nightmare for both sides of the border. he reigns over a multibillion-dollar global drug empire that supplied much of the marijuana, cocaine and heroin sold on the streets of the united states. chicago has labeled him the city's "public enemy no. 1." and riley, who spent years fighting guzman's cartel there, said he's personally angered over the escape. "i spent nearly five years fighting what he was doing to the city, what he was doing to the communities by bringing heroin in and working a business relationship with street gangs," he said. "for me, personally, it was a milestone to see him in jail. and when i got the call at 2:30 in the morning last saturday, i about passed out." but no matter what it takes, he said, investigators will find a way to capture him. "i am sure his security is probably second to none in the country. but that's not going to deter us. it didn't deter us the first time," riley said. "this guy is going to be back in jail."

video shows moment of 'el chapo's' escape from prison

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las vegas <u+2014> katy perry<u+2019>s glamour, tom steyer<u+2019>s money, univision<u+2019>s megaphone and organized labor<u+2019>s muscle, along with a late assist from barack obama, each helped lubricate harry reid<u+2019>s well-oiled political machine over the past 48 hours. the media tends to focus on the lack of enthusiasm for hillary clinton relative to president obama, which is real, but a few thousand more ballots were cast in nevada on saturday <u+2014><u+00a0>during the first day of early voting <u+2014><u+00a0>than during the kickoff day four years ago, when there was a similar flurry of activity to propel democrats to the polls. and that was before air force one touched down yesterday afternoon. it is a testament to the power of the organization that reid, the retiring senate minority leader, has built over three decades and that<u+00a0>he is now using to get clinton and his hand-picked successor, catherine cortez masto, across the finish line. as much as 60 percent of the vote will be cast before nov. 8 in the silver state. democrats for several cycles have dominated early voting, running up the score so that republicans struggle to overcome it on election day. since handily winning the republican caucuses here in february, donald trump has been stronger in nevada than in most other battlegrounds. the race remains tight here, a function of the relatively high percentage of low-income whites without college degrees. <u+201c>let's face it, nevada is always close,<u+201d> obama, who carried the state twice, said during a rally at a high school in north las vegas. <u+201c>nevada always makes you a little nervous because you don't know what's going to happen. but that's what makes it exciting.<u+201d> the bulk of nevada<u+2019>s democratic voters are concentrated in clark county, which includes vegas. during a two-week window, the race is on to lock in clinton<u+2019>s narrow advantage in the polls by getting as many of her supporters as possible to one of 97 early voting sites. the reid machine, fully activated, is a sight to behold. -- unions play a huge role. reid kicked off his saturday with a 9 a.m. speech at the iron workers union in the suburb of henderson. cortez masto joined him. then she went to the carpenters union training center at 10:15 a.m. and the service employees international union's office on sunset boulevard a little after noon. a taco truck parked out front served dual purposes: the promise of free lunch built a crowd while trolling the trump surrogate who warned during a recent cable interview that a clinton victory would mean a taco truck on every corner. a shuttle bus ferried people to the nearest polling location. -- a few hours later, pop star katy perry drew a diverse, young crowd of 500 to the courtyard in front of the student union at the university of nevada at<u+00a0>las vegas. the 31-year-old didn<u+2019>t sing, but she did get right to the point. perry talked about how she likes to procrastinate as much as anyone else, but that<u+2019>s not okay when it comes to early voting. (<u+201c>let<u+2019>s cut the crap. <u+2026> we<u+2019>ve all got excuses. don<u+2019>t put it off.<u+201d>)<u+00a0>she then lamented that<u+00a0>votes in nevada matter more than hers does in california. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m not just here to see a cirque show,<u+201d> she said. <u+201c>you guys are important!<u+201d> perry wore a blue leather dress, red heels and a white t-shirt that said <u+201c>nasty woman<u+201d> <u+2014><u+00a0>which is what trump called clinton during their debate right here on the campus of unlv last wednesday night. as she spoke about how she<u+2019>s been campaigning for the democratic nominee since <u+201c>the cornfields of iowa,<u+201d> a guy in the audience yelled that clinton should appoint her to be an ambassador. <u+201c>not yet,<u+201d> she replied. <u+201c>i<u+2019>ve got to put out a record <u+2014><u+00a0>or four!<u+201d> then perry introduced cortez masto. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s important to not just vote for president,<u+201d> the singer concluded. <u+201c>we<u+2019>ve got a crew. we<u+2019>ve got a clique. we all run together. we need to vote for the right senators, too<u+201d> she announced at the end of her speech that she would take sophomore kendra patterson, president of the campus black student organization, to vote for the first time. perry and her entourage piled into three black escalades and headed for the nearest polling place. nextgen, the climate-change-focused super pac bankrolled by liberal billionaire tom steyer, had a dozen volunteers working the perry rally in orange t-shirts. they handed out water bottles and had a coach bus in front of the student union to shuttle anyone who wanted a ride to go vote. -- early voting also gives democrats more opportunities to turn out latinos who have never voted before. mi familia vota and voto latino co-hosted a four-hour block party saturday afternoon in the parking lot of a mall that has an early voting site. there was live spanish music and all-you-can-eat plates of free tacos from a popular local eatery. there were two bouncy houses, face painting and popcorn for the kids. steyer<u+2019>s group helped pay for the event, and univision radio <u+2014><u+00a0>a co-sponsor <u+2014><u+00a0>promoted it on the air. staffers directed attendees to go inside the mall to vote. at around 6 p.m. saturday, there were about 100 people in line for tacos and another 50 voting inside. they waited in a line between a candy store and a cosmetics shop. -- the clinton team is investing heavily in door-to-door canvassing to run up her<u+00a0>early vote numbers. pilar grullon, a field organizer for the nevada democratic party, led a training session for 40 volunteers before perry arrived at unlv. the native of the dominican republic said her mom worked two jobs to make ends meet but that her family still relied on public assistance <u+2014><u+00a0>including food stamps and medicaid <u+2014><u+00a0>to get by. she recently became the first in her family to graduate from college. <u+201c>all of those services that my family depended on are at risk in this election,<u+201d> she said. grullon spent 15 minutes giving volunteers tips on how to give <u+201c>a little extra push<u+201d> to registered democrats who might be reluctant to vote early. everyone got <u+201c>commit cards<u+201d> to get people to write down exactly when and where they will vote. and they got leaflets with the number for a hotline that clinton supporters can call to get a free ride to the polls. <u+201c>you walk through, and you make a plan with the voter at every door,<u+201d> grullon said. she encouraged volunteers to be forceful: <u+201c>if a mom tells you her daughter is voting for hillary, don<u+2019>t take her word for it.<u+2026> note that, and someone else will come back to find her.<u+2026> be scrappy. if there<u+2019>s a gate, wait for someone to come to the gate.<u+2026> if they speak spanish and you can<u+2019>t, mark it down and someone else will go.<u+2026> don<u+2019>t engage anyone who wants to talk smack about our candidates. it is a waste of your time.<u+201d> for good measure, she even told everyone to smile. -- part of the democratic strategy is to unashamedly pester people until they vote. the campaigns find out who voted at the end of each day. so they can stop targeting potential supporters once they have<u+00a0>cast a ballot. during the training session, grullon urged her door knockers to tell people that they won<u+2019>t get bothered once they<u+2019>ve voted. <u+201c>if you don<u+2019>t want somebody to knock on your door or call you anymore, go vote,<u+201d> she said. <u+201c>and it will stop. seriously.<u+201d> this turns out to be a powerful incentive in a state where almost every commercial is about the election. beatriz martinez, 27, voted saturday inside a temporary trailer that has been set up in a target parking lot in las vegas. asked why she went on the first day, she said: <u+201c>we got tons of texts saying early voting started this morning <u+2014><u+00a0>from the clinton campaign people, from the climate change people, from the party people.<u+201d> she and her boyfriend, a law student, supported bernie sanders in the caucuses but rallied behind clinton after she wrapped up the nomination. martinez also brought her dad with her to vote. the 58-year-old was born in mexico and speaks spanish. he became a u.s. citizen more than a decade ago but had never voted before saturday. the chance to vote against trump changed that. he was very excited. at the end of saturday, democratic staffers celebrated news that 39,148 people had voted in clark county <u+2014><u+00a0>compared to 33,187 in 2012. of those, 55 percent were registered democrats and 27 percent were registered republicans. -- hitting the churches. the work continued early sunday. ruben kihuen, a state senator challenging republican rep. cresent hardy, arrived at a baptist church just before 8 a.m. to warn that all the progress of the obama years could unravel if democrats do not win. <u+201c>i was trying to convey the sense of urgency of getting to the polls,<u+201d> he said in an interview after the service, as he headed to a second church to deliver the same closing argument. <u+201c>this election could be won during early voting if you run a strong campaign.<u+201d> -- five hours later, obama arrived in kihuen<u+2019>s congressional district for a rally aimed primarily at turning out african americans. the president took the stage at cheyenne high school after boyz ii men performed <u+201c>the end of the road.<u+201d> speaking in front of a giant sign that said <u+201c>vote early,<u+201d> obama told an audience of 5,100: <u+201c>you've got the winning hand. you've got blackjack. but you<u+2019>ve got to make sure to turn over the card by voting. <u+2026> this game does not start on november 8th. the game ends on november 8th.<u+201d> bringing back a fictional character whom he invoked often in campaigns past, obama<u+00a0>added with a hint of nostalgia: <u+201c>i need you to call up cousin pooky<u+00a0>and say, 'pooky, it<u+2019>s time to vote!<u+2019><u+00a0>i need you to go call jesse and say, <u+2018>jesse, come on. don't be sitting on the couch. it's time to vote.<u+2019> everybody has got to vote early. that's how we won in <u+2019>08. that's how we won in 2012. that's how we're going to win in 2016!<u+201d> -- the republican effort to push early voting pales in comparison, and it certainly lacks the star power. the rnc-led victory program has 66 staffers spread across eight offices in nevada, more than in 2012. the state democratic party declined to provide a staff count but said it has 17 field offices. but even gop operatives marvel at the reid machine. they are trying to play catch up, but they acknowledge that their only hope to carry nevada is to win big among those who vote on election day. starting this weekend, the gop<u+2019>s field staff pivoted to knocking on the doors of registered republicans who are probably with trump but do not routinely vote. rep. mark amodei, chairman of trump<u+2019>s campaign in nevada, hosted a modest early vote kickoff event at the rnc<u+2019>s reno office on saturday morning. republican senate candidate joe heck, meanwhile, campaigned with ted cruz in reno and elko, less populated but redder areas of the state. heck, a congressman from vegas, alienated many trump supporters by rescinding his support. so he campaigned with the texas senator in an effort to shore up his conservative base. -- many republicans familiar with nevada worry about this nightmare scenario: if trump loses decisively along the eastern seaboard <u+2014> new hampshire, virginia, north carolina and/or florida <u+2014> the networks could declare that clinton is the president-elect before polls even close in nevada. many core gop voters typically cast their ballots while commuting home from work. what if a couple percent of them decide that the election is over and it<u+2019>s not worth waiting in line? because republicans are so reliant on these voters, and democrats will have so many votes locked in from early voting, it could lead to a down-ticket bloodbath. at the very least, it could tip a close senate race to cortez masto. -- happening today at 10 a.m. eastern <u+2014><u+00a0>the 202 goes live with gary johnson: i just landed after taking the redeye back from vegas so i can interview the libertarian presidential nominee. join us in-person at the washington post live center or watch a livestream of our hour-long conversation here. while you were sleeping: -- fighting resumed in eastern aleppo,<u+00a0>appearing to shatter moscow<u+2019>s <u+201c>humanitarian pause<u+201d> in air raids that allowed rebels and civilians to temporarily flee the syrian city. (hugh naylor) -- scoop:<u+00a0><u+201c>plans to send heavier weapons to cia-backed rebels in syria stall amid white house skepticism,<u+201d> by greg miller and adam entous: <u+201c>as rebel-held sections of aleppo crumbled under russian bombing this month, the obama administration was secretly weighing plans to rush more firepower to cia-backed units in syria. the proposal, which involved weapons that might help those forces defend themselves against russian aircraft and artillery, made its way onto the agenda of a recent meeting president obama held with his national security team. and that<u+2019>s as far as it got. neither approved nor rejected, the plan was left in a state of ambiguity that u.s. officials said reflects growing administration skepticism about escalating a covert cia program that has trained and armed thousands of syrian fighters.<u+00a0><u+2026> the operation has served as the centerpiece of the u.s. strategy to press [assad] to step aside. but u.s. officials said there are growing doubts that even an expanded version could achieve that outcome because of moscow<u+2019>s intervention. obama, officials said, now seems inclined to leave the fate of the cia program up to the next occupant of the white house.<u+201d> -- bill murray received the mark twain prize for american humor at the kennedy center,<u+00a0>playfully accepting the nation<u+2019>s top honor for comedy after a two-hour salute. from peggy mcglone: <u+201c>my theme tonight is what is it like to be beloved,<u+201d> a straight-faced murray told the crowd as he accepted his award. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s hard to listen to all those people be nice to you. you just get so suspicious.<u+201d><u+00a0>(murray actively avoided receiving the award for weeks before the event, telling the post<u+2019>s geoff edgers, <u+201c>i really thought if i don<u+2019>t answer the phone for awhile, maybe they<u+2019>ll just move on to someone else.<u+201d>) the program will be broadcast friday at 9 p.m. on pbs. -- at&t announced a planned $85.4 billion acquisition of time warner on saturday,<u+00a0>a blockbuster merger that would<u+00a0>radically reshape the media landscape. (brian fung) -- today<u+2019>s a1, <u+201c>how mega-donors helped raise $1 billion for hillary clinton,<u+201d> by matea gold and anu narayanswamy: <u+201c>determined not to fall behind in the money race, [she has] ramped up her appeals to rich donors and shrugged off restrictions that president obama had imposed on his fundraising team. even as her advisers fretted about the perception that she was too cozy with wealthy interests, they agreed to let lobbyists bundle checks for her campaign, including those representing some foreign governments ... top aides wooed major donors for super pacs, taking advantage of the leeway that campaigns have to legally collaborate with the groups on fundraising. an analysis by [the post] found that more than a fifth of the $1 billion donated to help her bid was given by just 100 wealthy individuals and labor unions <u+2014> many with a long history of contributing to the clintons." -- virginia<u+00a0>gov. terry mcauliffe<u+2019>s super pac donated nearly $500,000 to the campaign of<u+00a0>jill mccabe, the wife of an fbi official who later helped oversee clinton<u+2019>s email investigation. from the wall street journal<u+2019>s devlin barrett: <u+201c>campaign finance records show mr. mcauliffe<u+2019>s political-action committee donated $467,500 to the 2015 state senate campaign of dr. jill mccabe, who is married to andrew mccabe, now the deputy director of the fbi.<u+201d> mccabe was the third-largest recipient of funds from the governor<u+2019>s super pac.<u+00a0>the governor<u+2019>s office strongly denied any potential connection,<u+00a0>saying mcauliffe <u+201c>supported jill mccabe because he believed she would be a good state senator<u+201d>: <u+201c>this is a customary practice for virginia governors,<u+201d> a spokesman said in a statement. <u+201c>any insinuation that his support was tied to anything other than his desire to elect candidates who would help pass his agenda is ridiculous.<u+201d> -- an increasingly confident clinton touted herself as <u+201c>listmaker in chief<u+201d> at a north carolina rally on sunday, dismissing trump with a few jokes as she focused primarily on her to-do list as president. from anne gearan: <u+201c>we<u+2019>ve got challenges, don<u+2019>t get me wrong,<u+201d> clinton said at an outdoor rally on a sparkling fall afternoon. <u+201c>i<u+2019>ve laid out a whole agenda about dealing with those challenges,<u+201d> she said, adding that she is sometimes criticized for the detail of those proposals. she spent relatively little time marking out the ways she claims trump is unfit to be president, or even comparing herself with him, and she delved happily into discussions of technical education, student debt, infrastructure spending and economic growth.<u+201d> -- hrc<u+00a0>will rally in the tar heel state alongside michelle obama on thursday, their first side-by-side appearance this year. -- the<u+00a0>wikileaks emails show how many cooks are in hillary<u+2019>s kitchen. the boston globe<u+2019>s annie linskey notes that there were at least 37 messages exchanged about just<u+00a0>one tweet on the minimum wage. and the team considered 84 possible slogans before settling on <u+201c>stronger together.<u+201d><u+00a0>also, seemingly everyone in clinton<u+2019>s orbit offers<u+00a0>suggestions for how the candidate could connect better with average voters. former michigan governor<u+00a0>jennifer granholm, for example,<u+00a0>wanted clinton to try working in some low-wage service jobs to combat the perception that she is <u+201c>out of touch.<u+201d> among her suggestions: clinton could make hotel beds, clear tables at a denny<u+2019>s, mop floors in a school, or work in a day-care center or a nursing home for a day. -- the new yorker endorsed clinton, praising the democratic nominee as a <u+201c>distinctly capable candidate":<u+00a0><u+201c>the election of hillary clinton is an event that we would welcome for its historical importance, and greet with indescribable relief." -- trump held a rare sunday rally in naples, fla., halting from his teleprompter speech to suddenly ask the crowd if he was <u+201c>right to run for president.<u+201d> from<u+00a0>jenna johnson:<u+00a0><u+201c>when i<u+2019>m president, if companies want to fire their workers and leave <u+2014> are you okay? listen. when i<u+2019>m president, this is to me, like, this is why i started. are we glad that i started? are we happy?<u+201d> trump said, as the crowd encouragingly cheered him on. <u+201c>well, i<u+2019>ll let you know on the evening of nov. 8 whether i<u+2019>m glad.<u+201d> -- the trump brand continues to take<u+00a0>a huge hit because of the campaign, so the trump organization has decided to launch a new brand of hotels that will not carry his name. from bloomberg<u+2019>s hui-yong yu<u+00a0> james nash: <u+201c>scion, a line of hotels that will target younger clients, was unveiled last month in a press release that quoted three different trump organization executives, but not the candidate. the new brand is planned for use at city and resort locations <u+2026> intended to appeal <u+2018>to a new and different type of guest in more locations around the globe.<u+2019> he<u+2019>s now a polarizing figure. when he was putting his hotels together, he wasn<u+2019>t,<u+2019> said [consultant bruce<u+00a0>himelstein]. <u+2018>there<u+2019>s definitely an impact.<u+2019><u+201d> -- trump received his first major newspaper endorsement from the las vegas review-journal, a paper owned by casino billionaire and trump donor sheldon adelson. in a statement, the paper<u+2019>s editorial board acknowledged trump <u+201c>has his flaws<u+201d> but will <u+201c>bring needed disruption and change to washington.<u+201d> --<u+00a0>facebook co-founder dustin moskovitz has now given $35 million to anti-trump efforts. <u+201c>if the first $20 million yielded cheers, the second $15 million generated stunned silence,<u+201d> gabriel debenedetti reports<u+00a0>in politico. <u+201c>the deeply private 32-year-old <u+2014> who is worth $12.7 billion <u+2026> is a long-time philanthropist but political newcomer. he hasn<u+2019>t started to build contacts with local operatives. and he hasn<u+2019>t said a word publicly about his political involvement.<u+201d> -- former "apprentice" staffers said trump forced them to come to work in the days immediately following superstorm sandy, even though a state of emergency was in effect following the deadly storm. from the daily beast<u+2019>s gideon resnick and asawin suebsaeng: <u+201c>we all had to come in right after sandy,<u+201d> a former staffer recounted. <u+201c>we were in his building, and we fought with [a] manager, who said, <u+2018>it<u+2019>s not from me, it<u+2019>s from [donald trump] himself<u+2019>.<u+2026><u+00a0><u+201c>we had to work straight through it,<u+201d> another staffer said. <u+201c>the city was shut down, no traffic lights, etc. i would bike from [brooklyn] to [trump] tower,<u+201d> he said of his first days back at work. (meanwhile, trump was publicly taking credit for giving storm refugees shelter in trump tower <u+2014><u+00a0>something that he was required to do by law.) -- breitbart news is planning to announce the hiring of former red sox pitcher and trump supporter curt schilling to host a political talk show, six months after he was fired from espn for sharing an anti-transgender facebook post. the news also comes as schilling weighs whether to challenge elizabeth warren for her senate seat in 2018. (new york magazine) -- trump traveled to gettysburg saturday to deliver what was billed as a <u+201c>closing argument<u+201d> for his campaign and outline plans for the first 100 days of a trump administration <u+2014><u+00a0>but he spent most of the speech airing a litany of grievances instead. from jenna johnson and jose delreal: trump vowed to sue the women who have accused him of sexual assault <u+2014><u+00a0>branding them all <u+201c>liars<u+201d> <u+2014><u+00a0>and blasted the media for attempting to <u+201c>poison<u+201d> the minds of american voters. after more than 13 minutes on the subject, trump read several numbered lists of things that he would do on his first day in office or during his first 100 days. (<u+201c>nearly all were things that he has repeatedly promised to do, but this was the first time he listed them in a speech,<u+201d> johnson and delreal note.) tim kaine slammed trump<u+2019>s speech as evidence of the <u+201c>self-interested campaign<u+201d> he has run: "at the end of the campaign, all along, he's been running a self-interested, me-first campaign, not an america-first campaign,<u+201d> kaine told reporters in pittsburgh. <u+201c>and here he is saying that in the first 100 days i'm not changing, i may be potus, but i'm really going to focus on settling scores, and, oh, by the way, now that i'm president, i could really settle some scores." (abby phillip) -- trump said in a 2012 interview that he does not believe in deporting undocumented immigrants.<u+00a0>asked on cnbc<u+2019>s <u+201c>squawk box<u+201d> about his views on immigrant labor, trump said he was <u+201c>probably down the middle<u+201d>: <u+201c>i understand how, as an example, you have people in this country for 20 years, they've done a great job, they've done wonderfully, they've gone to school, they've gotten good marks, they're productive <u+2014> now we're supposed to send them out of the country, i don't believe in that,<u+201d> he said. (clip uncovered by<u+00a0>cnns<u+2019> andrew<u+00a0>kaczynski) -- kellyanne conway conceded that trump<u+2019>s campaign <u+201c>is behind<u+201d> on <u+201c>meet the press,<u+201d> but she pointed to enthusiasm at her client's campaign events<u+00a0>as evidence that he can still win.<u+00a0>"let me tell you something: you go out on the road with donald trump, this election doesn't feel over," conway added on cnn's "state of the union." later, conway distanced herself from trump's lengthy tirade against women who accused him of sexual misconduct, telling host jake tapper, <u+201c>well, he delivers his own speeches. this is his candidacy. he<u+2019>s the guy who<u+2019>s running for the white house.<u+201d> she outlined a potential path for the republican nominee on <u+201c>fox news sunday, saying they are focused on winning the states of florida, ohio, iowa, north carolina and, possibly, nevada, while protecting the traditionally-red states of arizona and georgia. (jenna johnson) -- rnc chairman reince priebus sought to minimize trump<u+2019>s claims<u+00a0>of a <u+201c>rigged<u+201d> election, telling john dickerson that he merely "wants to reserve all options." "he's saying he wants to reserve all options, and 'if there is grounds for a recount, i will exercise my options,'" priebus said on cbs. "he is not willing to not concede if he loses and there's no fraud." -- eric trump said his father would accept election results if they are "fair<u+201d>: "i think what my father is saying is 'i want a fair election,'" the younger trump said on abc's "this week," rattling off statistics that reportedly show "2 million people on the voter rolls right now who are dead<u+201d> and "14 percent of all noncitizens in this country are registered to vote.<u+201d> "if it's a fair outcome he will absolutely accept it, there's no question about it." (amy b wang) -- tim kaine suggested clinton would be open to exploring new asian trade deals as president, despite her opposition to the trans-pacific partnership.<u+00a0><u+201c>you never close the door if you can get a deal that's going to be good for american workers and our economy," the virginia senator told chuck todd. "we aren't against trade." -- <u+201c>as clinton builds a lead, write-in campaigns flower and falter,<u+201d> by david weigel: <u+201c>according to the [fec], just 136,040 write-in votes were cast and tabulated in the 2012 election. but this year, that number could be much higher, with multiple campaigns underway to normalize the act of writing in a name. evan mcmullin, the independent conservative candidate who entered the race too late to appear on many ballots, will be an <u+2018>official write-in candidate<u+2019> in most of the country. several fringe candidates have earned similar status, and some of sanders<u+2019>s die-hard fans are spreading the word that many states will also count any ballot with his name scrawled across it. <u+2026> although clinton<u+2019>s favorability rating has ticked up in recent weeks, many voters are already casting ballots in an environment where both major presidential candidates are unpopular. one problem: write-in votes are not treated the same as filled-in ballots. in many states, the votes are not counted or reported at all. in others, a misspelling or an alternate name <u+2014> say, <u+2018>evan mcmullen,<u+2019> or <u+2018>bernie<u+2019> instead of <u+2018>bernard sanders<u+2019> <u+2014> would not be tallied.<u+201d> -- obama will today endorse 30 more house candidates, is addition to some<u+00a0>150 state legislative candidates across 20 states later in the week. from politico<u+2019>s edward-isaac dovere: <u+201c>the endorsements<u+2014>which will come along with a variety of robocalls, social media, mailers, photos of obama with the candidates taken <u+2026> and even a few radio ads<u+2014>are obama<u+2019>s biggest investment in state races ever by far, and come as he gears up to make redistricting reform at the state level the political priority of his post-presidency.<u+201d> -- from virginia,<u+00a0><u+201c>they crossed the border illegally, and can<u+2019>t vote. but they can knock on doors,<u+201d> by wapo's<u+00a0>antonio olivo: <u+201c>unable to vote in the presidential election, a group of undocumented immigrants is knocking on doors in northern virginia in support of [clinton] and other democratic candidates, convinced that the outcome of the vote will determine whether they can secure a path to citizenship in the country they have known since childhood. the vote-seekers are some of the 750,000 recipients of temporary legal status under the obama administration<u+2019>s 2012 deferred action for childhood arrivals program. four years after the daca program was launched, many of the beneficiaries are still in a kind of limbo, unsure about whether their status would be renewed under a president trump and concerned that their family members could be deported.<u+201d> --<u+00a0>from north carolina, <u+201c>trump message clashes with gop's most-endangered governor,<u+201d> by politico's elena schneider: <u+201c>north carolina gov. pat mccrory is desperate to talk about his economic achievements after a year mired in contentious debate over social issues, including the state<u+2019>s transgender <u+2018>bathroom law.<u+2019> the only problem? [trump] keeps coming to town and telling voters how terrible the economy is. it<u+2019>s the most glaring example this year of the disconnect between trump<u+2019>s apocalyptic rhetoric and the message of achievement that many republican incumbents are trying to use to win reelection. it has been known to happen before <u+2014> there was reportedly friction between affable mitt romney<u+2019>s campaign and some recovery-touting gop governors in 2012. but the gap between mccrory<u+2019>s <u+2018>carolina comeback<u+2019> theme and trump<u+2019>s doom-and-gloom assessments yawns particularly wide, as mccrory faces the toughest reelection challenge of any governor in the country in 2016." -- from pennsylvania, <u+201c>gop frets over trump<u+2019>s down-ballot impact,<u+201d> by the boston globe's tracy jan: <u+201c>here in the pennsylvania suburbs, a political shift is underway: republican leaders worried about [trump<u+2019>s] presence atop the ticket are focusing as much of their attention on state races as they are on their presidential nominee<u+2019>s fate in a crucial swing-state battleground. with trump trailing in the polls, the question of the hour is what effect his lack of support might have on other gop candidates on the ballot.<u+201d> polls show sen. pat toomey clinging to a narrow lead over katie mcginty <u+2026> [but] trump has fallen more than six points behind clinton in pennsylvania <u+2014> and is 28 points behind in the philadelphia suburbs <u+2026> creating a whirlpool that could swallow the republican senator.<u+201d> -- trump is making a final push in florida,<u+00a0>hunkering down in the sunshine state as the race enters its final stretch. from the wall street journal<u+2019>s beth reinhard and janet hook: <u+201c>he is slated to headline five rallies over three days in the nation<u+2019>s largest battleground, where more than a million voters have already mailed in ballots. [but] in one potentially ominous sign for mr. trump, democrats are holding their own against republicans in mail-in ballots in florida, a mode of voting that the gop traditionally dominates <u+2026> the more traction democrats gain in early voting, the harder it will be for mr. trump to catch up, even if polls narrow near election day.<u+201d> trump will continue a push in northern and central parts of florida for the next two days, while the clinton campaign seeks to drive up turnout in the more liberal southern region. -- also in the sunshine state,<u+00a0>former colombian president alvaro uribe campaigned with marco rubio yesterday.<u+00a0>he joined<u+00a0>the senator at a miami restaurant as he seeks to shore up support among expat colombian voters. (miami herald) -- several<u+00a0>outside republican groups are now explicitly breaking with trump, urging voters<u+00a0>to elect a divided government rather than giving clinton a blank check. from the new york times<u+2019> alexander burns and amy chozick:<u+00a0>the congressional leadership fund is slated to begin running ads that attack democratic candidates as <u+201c>rubber stamps<u+201d> for clinton. meanwhile, the chamber of commerce and the senate leadership fund have launched a wave of senate commercials asking voters to limit clinton<u+2019>s power by supporting down-ballot republicans instead. here's an example from missouri: -- an abc news tracking poll finds clinton up 12 nationally among likely voters (50-38).<u+00a0>clinton holds a 20-point advantage among women<u+00a0>and has a three-point edge with men.<u+00a0>trump<u+2019>s rhetoric has caused problems: 69 percent said they disapprove of trump<u+2019>s response to questions about his treatment of women, while 59 percent reject his suggestion that the election is <u+201c>rigged<u+201d> in clinton<u+2019>s favor.<u+00a0>and he could face turnout problems: abc's survey found a seven-point drop among republicans who plan to vote on election day. -- a cbs news/yougov poll conducted in texas after the third debate showed clinton within striking distance,<u+00a0>trailing him by just 3 points in the state. the majority of his texas backers are over age 45, the survey found. meanwhile, he<u+2019>s down by at least eight points among voters under 45.<u+00a0>the cbs poll found clinton up just 3 points in florida (46-43), however. -- <u+201c>iceland, a land of vikings, braces for a pirate party takeover,<u+201d> by griff witte: <u+201c>the party that could be on the cusp of winning iceland<u+2019>s national elections on saturday didn<u+2019>t exist four years ago. its members are a collection of anarchists, hackers, libertarians and web geeks. it sets policy through online polls <u+2014> and thinks the government should do the same. it wants to make iceland <u+2018>a switzerland of bits,<u+2019> free of digital snooping. it has offered edward snowden a new place to call home. and then there<u+2019>s the name: in this land of vikings, the pirate party may soon be king. the rise of the pirates <u+2014> from radical fringe to focal point of icelandic politics <u+2014> has astonished even the party<u+2019>s founder, a poet, web programmer and former wikileaks activist. but this, after all, is 2016. [the win] would offer a vivid illustration of how far europeans are willing to go in their rejection of the political mainstream, adding to a string of insurgent triumphs emanating from both the far left and far right." let's start with this face from hillary clinton as she watches the cubs win: clinton, an illinois native, grew up as a cubs fan. here are photos of her with legendary cubs announcer harry caray: bill murray, also a cubs fan, was in d.c. to collect the mark twain prize at the kennedy center. here he is crashing the white house press briefing room to talk about his team: here's a quick look at the state of the race: katy perry was out on the campaign trail for clinton: a top lawyer at the powerhouse firm gibson dunn reiterated his offer to represent pro bono anyone who trump sues for accusing him of sexual misconduct: the los angeles times wrote about the time trump threatened to sue the paper in 2008 for an accurate story about trump university: meanwhile, trump is once again criticizing the u.s.<u+00a0>military: the old, very awkward trump-pence logo was back: breitbart is no fan of paul ryan's: and the drudge report continues to get nastier and nastier toward hrc: meanwhile, a supporter told mike pence to tell trump he's "tired of the crap": like this, from gop operative doug heye: let's recap what it's like to be a reporter at a trump rally: plus, a note from jake tapper on that word "lugenpresse": john kerry, ban ki-moon and other leaders attended a screening of leonardo dicaprio's climate change documentary, "before the flood": shelley moore capito and cheri bustos are enjoying the first taste of fall: and finally, jason chaffetz is courting the instagram likes with this photo: on the campaign trail: clinton stumps<u+00a0>with elizabeth warren in manchester, n.h.,<u+00a0>while kaine campaigns in miami and palm beach, fla. biden stumps for clinton in dayton and toledo, ohio. trump is in st. augustine and tampa, fla.; pence stops in salisburg and greensboro, n.c. at the white house: obama is in california for fundraisers. he appears on abc's "jimmy kimmel live" tonight. on capitol hill: the senate and house are out. news you can use if you live in d.c.: -- partially sunny and breezy, today should be a quintessentially perfect fall day. the capital weather gang forecasts: <u+201c>a cold front sneaks through the region early on. it kicks up the wind a bit but has little effect on temperature. with lots of sunshine, highs still aim for the upper 60s.<u+201d> -- the redskins lost to the detroit lions 17-20. -- a d.c. police officer was arrested and charged with driving under the influence while on duty. authorities said they were alerted to arthur thompson<u+2019>s impairment by a supervisor investigating a citizen complaint early sunday. (spencer s. hsu) -- <u+201c>no worries for incumbent rep. don beyer in va. as election day approaches,<u+201d> by patricia sullivan: <u+201c>rep. don beyer (d-va.) has some quirky ideas about what legislation he would pursue if he wins a second term in congress next month. he wants to push for a billion-dollar economic development project in hard-hit coal communities far from his suburban northern virginia district. he longs to revise the federal budget process <u+2026> and he<u+2019>d like to see larger, multi-member congressional districts, as was allowed before 1842. <u+2018>i don<u+2019>t want to be naive and i don<u+2019>t want to be don quixote,<u+2019> said the affable auto dealer <u+2026> <u+2018>but i want to talk to 200 people about this in the next two years.<u+2019> when you are the incumbent democrat in one of the country<u+2019>s deepest blue districts, you can afford to dream. a bilingual millennial who describes himself as leaning libertarian on many social issues, hernick, 35, has tried to appeal to young voters who want congress to address the national debt, end political gridlock and speed the pace of change.<u+201d> sen.<u+00a0>al franken (d-minn.) provided the post with a list of his 10 favorite political sketches on "saturday night live." among them are jon lovitz as michael dukakis in 1988, saying "i can't believe i'm losing to this guy." here's the snl take from this weekend<u+00a0>on the final presidential debate: for his opening monologue as snl host, tom hanks spoke to america like a dad: in this sketch, hanks plays doug, a white contestant (and trump supporter) on black jeopardy: pbs debuted its behind-the-scenes hamilton documentary, "hamilton's america," with cameos from obama, george w. bush, paul ryan, elizabeth warren and others. here's the extended trailer: as a bonus, here are two 2016-themed hamilton parodies from youtube (the song is "the election of 1800"): mark cuban has a new business idea, per this funny or die video -- putting people into voluntary comas for the duration of a trump presidency: wyclef jean dressed up as sanders, clinton and trump for the video version of his updated track, "if i was president": terry tate is back as the office linebacker -- only this time, he's taking down trump: the human rights campaign released this digital ad in florida featuring a survivor of the pulse nightclub shooting: last but definitely not least,<u+00a0>in this political ad, the wife of a candidate defending his seat on the travis county commissioners court implores voters to reelect him so that he'll get out of the house:

the daily 202: how democrats are dominating early voting in nevada

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