ComplexDataLab/Misinfo_Datasets · Datasets at Hugging Face

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donald trump's criticism of a muslim-american family that lost a son in iraq has been called a potentially pivotal moment in the election. but for a host of reasons, such events are 'very, very rare.' khizr khan, father of fallen us army capt. humayun khan, speaks while his wife ghazala khan looks on during the democratic national convention in philadelphia on thursday <u+f022><u+f0dd> in election 2016, it could be called <u+201c>the question.<u+201d> it has been repeated from the moment donald trump entered the race, calling mexican immigrants criminals and rapists. and it has been raised again this weekend, after mr. trump criticized the parents of a fallen muslim-american soldier. has trump gone too far and materially damaged his chances for the presidency? the reality is, voters don<u+2019>t usually make up their minds that way, political scientists say. single events rarely decide elections, and the constant attempts to forecast trump<u+2019>s demise speak both to the media<u+2019>s continuing befuddlement over his popularity as well as a penchant toward hyperbole. the failed iran hostage rescue mission in 1980 doomed jimmy carter<u+2019>s campaign, perhaps. the stock market collapse in 2008 gave john mccain an almost impossible obstacle as the perceived heir of the bush legacy. but trump<u+2019>s comments about the family of capt. humayun khan, while perhaps more damaging than other past comments, probably won<u+2019>t determine the winner in november. <u+201c>a real <u+2026> game-changer is very, very rare,<u+201d> says larry sabato, director of the university of virginia<u+2019>s center for politics. <u+201c>but you wouldn<u+2019>t know that from watching television.<u+201d> the events began at the democratic national convention, where khizr khan, whose son died in iraq, sharply criticized trump. trump responded by implying that the fallen soldier<u+2019>s mother had been silenced, by equating his sacrifices in building a successful business with the khans<u+2019> loss, and by trying to refocus the conversation on terrorism. some pundits have called it a pivotal moment in the campaign. but at a moment when the american electorate is increasingly polarized, there is a question of whether game-changing moments can even happen this election. though polls show that trump and hillary clinton are the two most disliked presidential candidates of the past quarter century, that dislike can freeze voters in concrete <u+2013> they don<u+2019>t like their candidate, but they<u+2019>re definitely not going to vote for the other one. over the course of the campaign, trump<u+2019>s comments have often only hardened each side<u+2019>s resolve instead of swaying undecided voters. <u+201c>large majorities are in concrete about their party and presidential choice,<u+201d> says professor sabato. <u+201c>the game is over for the vast majority of voters.<u+201d> but others say that polls do show scope for some movement. between 5 and 25 percent of voters are not choosing either trump or mrs. clinton. <u+201c>this means there is still fluidity there,<u+201d> says gary nordlinger, president of a political consulting firm and adjunct professor at george washington university<u+2019>s school of political management. and despite the high unfavorable ratings for each candidate, some voters could still switch allegiances, suggests tobe berkovitz, a political media consultant and chair of boston university<u+2019>s department of mass communication. <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t think the cake is baked at this point. more important than the <u+2018>undecideds<u+2019> are the <u+2018>persuadables,<u+2019> <u+201d> he says. <u+201c>they say they are voting for one or the other [now], but they can be pulled away. it<u+2019>s a real hold-your-nose election. they are voting because this one is worse than that one.<u+201d> the khan episode could have an influence. <u+201c>this could have teeth<u+201d> compared with trump<u+2019>s other controversial remarks, says jennifer lawless, director of the women and politics institute at american university. <u+201c>there were multiple facets that people found offensive: the mother remarks, that the speech wasn<u+2019>t heartfelt, questions as to whether the soldier was a hero. take your pick. most people found part of the discussion distasteful.<u+201d> the effect will only become apparent after a couple weeks of polling, she says. one thing is for sure, however. the media are a poor judge of game-changing moments. the phrase <u+201c>game changer<u+201d> was used at least 19,600 times during the 2012 presidential campaign, according to research by tim murphy, a reporter with mother jones magazine. all three presidential debates were deemed <u+201c>game-changers,<u+201d> as were multiple monthly jobs reports and varying endorsements. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s in the media<u+2019>s interest to make everything seem like a big deal <u+2013> that<u+2019>s what the media does and it<u+2019>s a self-fulfilling prophecy for everyone but the voters,<u+201d> says professor berkovitz at boston university. as john sides and lynn vavreck point out in their 2012 book <u+201c>the gamble,<u+201d> game-changers are emphasized by the media <u+2013> not presidential campaigns. <u+201c>the continual search for game-changers treats a campaign like a boxing match, where the momentum may be shifting back and forth with every punch and the knockout blow could come at any moment. in reality, there are few knockout punches, and most game-changers do not really change the game that much.<u+201d> added mr. murphy of mother jones: <u+201c>the moral of the story is that we<u+2019>re still really bad at predicting the future.<u+201d>

donald trump, a fallen soldier, and the myth of game-changing moments

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texas state troopers have begun asking motorists their race and ethnicity after it was discovered that drivers <u+2014><u+00a0>mostly hispanics<u+00a0><u+2014><u+00a0>were often misidentified during traffic stops because of flaws in an automated system meant to guard against racial profiling. department of public safety director steve mccraw told a state house<u+00a0>committee that the change took effect wednesday in an attempt to gather more accurate data. "what we can do better, and what we should have been doing better, is collect the data accurately as it relates to hispanics. plain and simple<u+00a0>... i would rather<u+00a0>a trooper not have to ask," mccraw told lawmakers, according to a transcript of the hearing. "but if the data doesn't work ... there is a problem.'' kxan-tv in austin<u+00a0>conducted a database review using millions of records going<u+00a0>back to 2010 that showed<u+00a0>troopers across the state inaccurately reported the race of hispanic drivers. the television station's investigation of dps traffic citation records also found the number of drivers stopped by troopers and recorded as hispanic has gone up annually since 2010 <u+2014> from nearly 208,000 to 351,000 last year <u+2014> while the number of drivers recorded as white declined in the same time period from 1.9 million to about 1.2 million last year, the associated press reported. among the most common surnames of drivers listed by troopers as white are garcia, martinez, hernandez, gonzalez and rodriguez. while a hispanic name doesn't necessarily mean a person is of hispanic descent, the review of dps records showed<u+00a0>more than 1.9 million drivers with traditionally hispanic names were listed as white. over the same period, approximately 1.6 million were reported as hispanic. in an effort to guard against racial profiling, state law requires authorities to document the race of drivers who are arrested,<u+00a0>issued warnings or citations. but mccraw testified that coding on drivers licenses only allowed for identification as hispanic since 2010. prior to that time, hispanic motorists were often identified as white. mccraw told lawmakers that he did not know how much it would cost to fix the automated system, leaving no other remedy but to direct troopers to specifically ask for the information. "officers will advise the individual that the officer is required by law to inquire as to the individual<u+2019>s race or ethnicity,'' a dps memo outlining the new policy stated. "the officer will record the race or ethnicity as stated by the motorist.<u+00a0>only in cases where an individual refuses to provide the requested information and the database reflects their race or ethnicity as 'other,'<u+00a0>will the officer use best judgment or ability to determine the race or ethnicity of the motorists.'' despite the current lack of data, mccraw maintained that the agency does not tolerate racial profiling. "bottom line, it's against the law,'' he said. "there is no racial profiling within the dps.''

texas troopers to ask drivers their race following investigation

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one of the biggest mysteries about the long con of donald trump's presidential campaign is how he has convinced millions of middle-class white americans that he truly gives a shit about them. how can it be, i<u+2019>ve often wondered, that a billionaire who lives in a pink-marble triplex high above fifth avenue, one who flies around in his own aging boeing 757 and who owns a weekend home in palm beach and property in new jersey horse country, can somehow become the hero of the people left in the wake of the new digital economy? these voters, indeed, have every right to wonder what happened to their american dream. they have every right to be worried about their livelihood and their future. they have every right to be equally terrified and aggrieved about the slow growth of the real economy, and how it has made the life that we have come to expect for generations all but unattainable. trump, of course, has never quite evidenced sympathy for the common man. according to a recent bombshell report in the washington post, in fact, we now know that trump<u+2019>s own foundation reportedly spent $20,000 to purchase a six-foot portrait of trump himself. perhaps trump<u+2019>s appeal to the rust belt results, in part, from the fact that he is a former television star, who showed up in our living rooms every week in a fictitious corporate boardroom. sara flynn, a 55-year-old mother of four sons in hebron, kentucky, recently explained to reporters from the new york times that she has liked trump ever since she watched him on the apprentice. she said that she believes trump when he says he can <u+201c>make america great again.<u+201d> she seemed wistful. <u+201c>that<u+2019>s a bygone era, that<u+2019>s when america was great,<u+201d> she said of the old days. <u+201c>it hasn<u+2019>t been like that for me.<u+201d> i suspect part of the reason that flynn and others like her feel an affinity for trump is because of the promises he makes in his speeches, like the one he gave on thursday to the economic club of new york, at the waldorf astoria hotel, which is now owned by a chinese insurance company. the speech was likely written by one of the reagan-era economic disciples who whisper in trump<u+2019>s ears these days. maybe it was larry kudlow, the ex<u+2013>bear stearns economist and cnbc veteran (he was on the dais over trump<u+2019>s right shoulder)? or maybe it was stephen moore, formerly a columnist at the wall street journal, who is now a visiting fellow at the conservative heritage foundation? trump<u+2019>s words certainly sounded a bit like reagan<u+2019>s. fresh from his two-hour photo-op in flint, michigan, the day before, he told the invitation-only crowd in new york, <u+201c>it used to be cars were made in flint, and you couldn<u+2019>t drink the water in mexico. now, the cars are made in mexico and you can<u+2019>t drink the water in flint.<u+201d> it<u+2019>s a good line, and trump presumably knew it. he had, in fact, also used it in flint the day before. like some of what trump says, it is funny. but like much of what he says, it isn't true. we make millions of cars, and car parts, in america. a recent study by the center for automotive research, in fact, revealed that the auto industry accounts for about 3 percent, or nearly $75 billion, of all foreign direct investment in the united states. but trump<u+2019>s brand depends upon fever dreams more than realities. trump laid the promises on thick at the waldorf. <u+201c>we are going to turn this around,<u+201d> he continued. <u+201c>my economic plan rejects the cynicism that says our labor force will keep declining, that our jobs will keep leaving, and that our economy can never grow as it did once before. we reject the pessimism that says our standard of living can no longer rise, and that all that<u+2019>s left to do is divide up and redistribute our shrinking resources. everything that is broken today can be fixed, and every failure can be turned into a great success.<u+201d> trump subsequently promised to create 25 million new jobs<u+2014>more jobs than certain credible economists believe that there will be workers to fill. he promised to cut taxes. he promised to cut regulations. he promised to repatriate the trillions of dollars in corporate profit<u+2014>he estimated the figure at $5 trillion<u+2014>and to make child-care costs tax deductible. he promised to rip up the trade agreements that he despises, nafta and the t.p.p. he promised that the economy, which has been stuck at around 2 percent annual economic growth for the last 10 years or so, would start growing at 3.5 percent per year, and maybe 4 percent per year if everything goes as he predicts it will. should that happen, trump suggested, our $600 billion annual deficit would decrease. he also promised to cut the corporate tax rate to 15 percent from the current 35 percent. <u+201c>an explosion of new business and new jobs will be created,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>it will be amazing to watch.<u+201d> he then engaged in a little voodoo economics. <u+201c>we are proposing a $4.4 trillion tax cut that will score as $2.6 trillion under a dynamic growth model, which is how taxes should be scored,<u+201d> he said. (if larry kudlow is around, could he please translate that sentence into a language one of trump<u+2019>s supporters, or even mere journalists, might understand?) trump then promised to put coal miners and steel workers back to work, despite the fact that so many of the companies that operate in the coal sector face existential struggles; and those that operate in the steel sector are a shadow of their former selves.

is this trump<u+2019>s biggest financial con yet?

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if donald trump were a car, he would be a porsche. if he were an animal, he<u+2019>d be a lion. and people like porsches and lions. or, at least, <u+201c>walmart moms<u+201d> do, according to a focus group of republican primary-voting walmart moms conducted this past week in pittsburgh by democratic pollster margie omero and republican pollster neil newhouse. (walmart moms are defined as women who have children younger than 18 at home and have gone to the store at least once in the past month. the focus groups <u+2014> the two pollsters did another one with swing moms in suburban philadelphia <u+2014> were funded by walmart.) <u+201c>characterizing donald trump as a type of car or animal resulted in some fascinating descriptions <u+2014> from the gop group, women depicted him as a porsche, a ferrari, a muscle car, a boxer who stands his ground, a bulldog, an escalade, a lion (fierce and king of the jungle) and as an unpredictable cat,<u+201d> newhouse and omero wrote in a memo summarizing the results. <u+201c>these moms praised him as someone who speaks his mind, stands his ground, and is refreshingly politically incorrect.<u+201d> [the most baffling moments from donald trump<u+2019>s washington post ed board interview] the focus group, which was split evenly between trump supporters and those backing another republican candidate, provides a fascinating window into not only how pennsylvanians view trump on the eve of the state<u+2019>s primary, on tuesday, but also into how the real estate mogul is viewed more broadly. the findings should be comforting for trump and deeply concerning not only for sen. ted cruz of texas and ohio gov. john kasich, his rivals for the republican nomination, but also for the <u+201c>never trump<u+201d> movement within the gop establishment. <u+201c>these gop walmart moms seem to want no part of the #nevertrump movement,<u+201d> newhouse told me sunday. <u+201c>in fact, they respect his strength and his straight talk and believe he is the party<u+2019>s best shot to beat hillary.<u+201d> most importantly, the gop primary race as seen through the lens of these walmart moms is, effectively, trump vs. everyone else. neither cruz nor kasich make much of an impression with these women <u+2014> even this late in the primary process. <u+201c>voters were generally unable to tell us much about either cruz or kasich, republican primary voters seemed to dislike cruz perhaps more than the swing moms; he was generally described in both groups as <u+2018>religious,<u+2019> <u+2018>gorilla <u+2014> almost human,<u+2019> or <u+2018>like a neighbor<u+2019>s dog <u+2014> you don<u+2019>t know if they<u+2019>re going to bite,<u+2019><u+2009><u+201d> omero and newhouse wrote. <u+201c>kasich<u+2019>s image was even thinner, <u+2018>i think they like him in ohio,<u+2019> said one, <u+2018>too sane,<u+2019> or <u+2018>mild, like a kitten,<u+2019> said others.<u+201d> then there<u+2019>s the fact that for all the attention paid to trump<u+2019>s comments about women during his long life in the public eye, the vast majority of these gop walmart moms seems strikingly unbothered by his views on women. <u+201c>when these gop moms were pushed about trump<u+2019>s gender issues, there was some acknowledgment that he may be a <u+2018>sexist,<u+2019> but general agreement among these women was that <u+2018>i don<u+2019>t really care, i<u+2019>ve seen worse,<u+2019><u+00a0><u+201d> newhouse and omero wrote. that<u+2019>s an absolutely stunning finding <u+2014> at least to me. [the new donald trump should scare the hell out of the gop establishment] when it comes to the broader delegate fight, the women in the focus group think trump is also in very good shape and think it would be deeply unfair for the person who enters the convention with the most votes and delegates not to be chosen as the republican nominee. <u+201c>i<u+2019>d feel terribly misled,<u+201d> one woman said when asked about the prospect. <u+201c>cheated,<u+201d> another said. (not surprisingly, this group was equally dismissive about the prospect of house speaker paul d. ryan or some other <u+201c>white knight<u+201d> candidate riding to the rescue at the convention; <u+201c>if convention turned to someone like paul ryan <u+2014> shows that gop leaders don<u+2019>t really care about them,<u+201d> newhouse tweeted while conducting the focus group.) finally, there<u+2019>s a very strong sense that trump represents the gop<u+2019>s best chance of beating democratic front-runner hillary clinton in the fall <u+2014> despite lots and lots of polling that suggests he would be a decidedly weak nominee against the former secretary of state. the walmart moms said they would feel <u+201c>relieved,<u+201d> <u+201c>concerned,<u+201d> <u+201c>good<u+201d> and <u+201c>optimistic<u+201d> with trump as the nominee <u+2014> a remarkable set of emotions toward the business mogul. <u+201c>there was no hesitation among the gop women that trump could beat clinton and that they would support the gop nominee <u+2014> even if he hadn<u+2019>t been their first choice,<u+201d> newhouse and omero wrote. with trump coming off a huge win in new york last tuesday and almost certainly headed to a five-state sweep this tuesday, these findings suggest that among the gop rank and file, he is considered far more likely to be the republican nominee than is commonly understood in washington <u+2014> a frightening prospect for party leaders, who believe that nominating trump could be a massive electoral disaster for their side. <u+201c>pittsburgh<u+2019>s not that far from washington, d.c., but these gop walmart moms are a world apart from d.c. in their views on this race,<u+201d> newhouse said. <u+201c>we<u+2019>ve long passed valentine<u+2019>s day, but among these women, it<u+2019>s coming up all roses for donald trump.<u+201d>

among this group of gop primary voters, trump is the porsche of candidates

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hillary clinton ended her historic presidential campaign wednesday, saying it is<u+00a0><u+201c>painful<u+00a0>and will be for a long time,<u+201d> as she urged for a peaceful transfer of power. <u+201c>donald trump is going to be our president,<u+201d> she said in her concession speech. <u+201c>i hope that he will be a successful president for all americans,"<u+00a0>clinton told a room of emotional aides and supporters, who gave her an extended round of applause. <u+201c>we have seen that our nation is more deeply divided than we thought. but i still believe in america and always will. and if you do, then we must accept this<u+201d> election outcome, she added. <u+201c>we owe him an open mind and a chance to lead.<u+201d> clinton<u+2019>s vice presidential running mate, tim kaine, introduced her and addressed the unique challenge the former secretary of state faced in her bid to become the nation's first female president. <u+201c>she has been and is a great history maker,<u+201d> he said, citing her work as a civil rights lawyer, first lady, senator and secretary of state. <u+201c>she has made history in a nation that is good at so many things, but that<u+2019>s made it uniquely difficult for a woman to be elected to federal office," adding that clinton had become the first female major-party presidential nominee, he also noted that, just like democrat al gore in 2000, clinton appeared to have won the national popular vote. clinton made it clear that<u+00a0>while americans must <u+201c>cherish<u+201d> the constitution<u+2019>s democratic tradition of a peaceful transfer of power, they should fight to protect its core values of the rule of law, equal rights and freedom of worship. these are all constitutional protections her campaign had argued were at risk with a trump presidency. in closing her remarks<u+00a0>clinton made a direct appeal to young people and women of all ages. to young people, she said: <u+201c>this loss hurts, but please never stop believing that fighting for what<u+2019>s right is worth it.<u+201d> she concluded her concession urging the women who supported her not to lose faith in their dreams. <u+201c>we have still not shattered that highest, hardest glass ceiling, but some day someone will. and hopefully sooner than we might think right now,<u+201d> she said. <u+201c>to all the little girls who are watching this, never doubt that you are valuable and powerful and deserving of every chance and opportunity in the world to pursue and achieve your<u+201d> dreams, she added. several hours earlier, clinton had called trump<u+00a0>to congratulate him on becoming the nation's president-elect. however, she did not make an appearance before backers<u+00a0>gathered at the jacob k. javits convention center for what was expected to be a victory party. instead, her campaign chairman, john podesta, made brief remarks. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s been a long night, and it<u+2019>s been a long campaign, but i can say we can wait a little longer," he told clinton's despondent supporters in the late hours of election night. outside the new yorker hotel in manhattan, where clinton would deliver her concession remarks wednesday, disappointed supporters, many still wearing their guest badges from the previous night's campaign event, tried to get in to see their defeated candidate. anita broccolino<u+00a0>said she wanted to get<u+00a0>into the event "to show support for hillary, to show her we love her." the loss was a shock to the clinton team after most major polls showed her with a comfortable lead in all of the major battleground states, including pennsylvania, a<u+00a0>blue-leaning state<u+00a0>that republicans hadn't carried since 1988 <u+2014> until trump's win there tuesday. a few weeks ago, clinton's lead was even more pronounced. following the third debate in las vegas, in which trump called clinton a "nasty woman" and would not commit to honoring the outcome of the election, an abc news tracking poll showed clinton leading the gop nominee by 11 points nationally. later in the month, fbi director james comey announced that his agency was reviewing new emails that might be relevant to its investigation of her private email server, but just two days before the election, comey said the emails were either duplicates or not germane and that he was making no change in his previous recommendation against criminal charges. still, the move revived the one issue<u+00a0>that had proved most damaging to clinton's candidacy <u+2014><u+00a0>and her poll numbers began to reflect it. additionally, news organizations, including fox news, falsely reported that she would be indicted in a separate investigation related to her family's charitable foundation. clinton responded on the campaign trail by shifting her message to take aim at trump, even warning at several rallies that the real estate mogul's<u+00a0>temperament risked a global nuclear war. on the eve of the election, clinton told supporters in grand rapids, mich.,<u+00a0>that there was no veto over a presidential decision to launch a nuclear weapon and that it takes just four minutes to launch one. democrats will now begin a long process of soul-searching. during the heat of the campaign, they had remained optimistic that a number of the setbacks they'd encountered, including the wikileaks email hack linked to russia, were survivable.

clinton's emotional concession: this is 'painful and will be for a long time'

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killing obama administration rules, dismantling obamacare and pushing through tax reform are on the early to-do list.

rand paul drops out of white house race

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bernie sanders has civil rights credentials, but many black thinkers are wary of his brand of liberal socialism, which they say ignores the role of racism in society. tesla under trump: how will electric cars fare under the next president? with just a week before the first votes are cast in the 2016 united states presidential election, black voters have yet to #feelthebern and embrace bernie sanders<u+2019>s liberal vision for the country. and while the vermont senator could upset former secretary of state hillary clinton in the first two democratic contests, in mostly white iowa and new hampshire, black voters could quickly stop the momentum of the self-described democratic socialist once the election heads to the south, many observers say. for one thing, mrs. clinton enjoys strong support from this constituency, perhaps because of her and her husband<u+2019>s long involvement with the black community. but for some black thinkers, the issue is more senator sanders himself <u+2013> and specifically, his class-based economic socialism. his outlook, they say, often ignores deeper questions about race and the divides that the country continues to face. and in that respect, they see sanders as not warming up to the kind of radical actions that they<u+2019>re calling for. <u+201c>i think this is where some of the white liberal efforts have failed,<u+201d> says christina greer, a political scientist at fordham university in new york. <u+201c>in the rush to make it all about class, you turn on your blinders to certain things that quite frankly aren<u+2019>t about class.... he<u+2019>s missing a very large piece of the puzzle, and what makes some black voters nervous, there seems to be a huge gap in his understanding about race.<u+201d> this summer, as the sanders campaign<u+2019>s message of economic populism first began resonating among many democrats, especially millennials, it ran into problems when targeted by black lives matter protesters, many of them boisterous and disruptive. they were unimpressed that the radical democratic socialist responded to the death of freddie gray in baltimore primarily with a <u+201c>long run<u+201d> solution of better youth employment. <u+201c>when a candidate points to high unemployment among black youth, as well as high incarceration rates, and then dubs himself a radical, it seems prudent to ask what radical anti-racist policies that candidate actually embraces,<u+201d> wrote ta-nehisi coates in the atlantic on sunday. <u+201c>hillary clinton has no interest in being labeled radical, left-wing, or even liberal,<u+201d> he added. mr. coates<u+2019>s much-discussed 2014 essay, <u+201c>the case for reparations,<u+201d> laid out a moral argument that even many conservatives found compelling, as it recounted the history of government <u+201c>redlining,<u+201d> which disqualified most black neighborhoods for federally supported mortgage lending. over the weekend, coates returned to the reparations issue, saying that sanders<u+2019>s radical bona fides actually reveal the failure of the <u+201c>liberal imagination.<u+201d> <u+201c>sanders<u+2019>s basic approach is to ameliorate the effects of racism through broad, mostly class-based policies <u+2013> doubling the minimum wage, offering single-payer health-care, delivering free higher education,<u+201d> he wrote. <u+201c>this is the same <u+2018>a rising tide lifts all boats<u+2019> thinking that has dominated democratic anti-racist policy for a generation.<u+201d> eradicating the deeper effects of white supremacy, coates and other commentators believe, requires far more attention to race and much more radical action <u+2013> such as correcting the devastating history of redlining. yet even as some black thinkers and the young protesters of black lives matter remain unimpressed with sanders, experts say this doesn<u+2019>t fully explain why black voters are increasingly putting their support behind mrs. clinton. while clinton has seen her support fall among almost all democratic constituencies this past month, that has not been the case among black and latino democratic voters. in january, their support for clinton jumped to 71 percent, according to a monmouth university poll released last week, up from 61 percent in december. a lot of this support, many say, is simply that black voters know both hillary and bill clinton well after more than two decades on the national political scene. <u+201c>though he lived in chicago and did all sorts of work with [martin luther] king, sanders is a new england liberal,<u+201d> says randal jelks, professor of african-american studies at the university of kansas in lawrence. <u+201c>in such a white state, he really doesn<u+2019>t know a constituency that is diverse and has diverse needs.<u+201d> <u+201c>the clintons have spent time with black people, in black churches, and have come out of a strong black presence in arkansas,<u+201d> he continues. these ties have long been established with black elites, especially influential black pastors around the nation, experts say. <u+201c>if you<u+2019>ve been friends with the clintons, and have benefited from that friendship with the clintons, this trickles down to voters,<u+201d> says professor greer, an expert in urban politics. blacks, she points out, can be pragmatic in their voting decisions. <u+201c>what i think a lot of people tend to forget is that black and latino voters <u+2013> especially black voters, historically <u+2013> have been strategic voters, as opposed to sincere voters at certain times,<u+201d> she says. professor jelks concurs. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m not too fond of ms. clinton<u+2019>s policies myself, but i<u+2019>m a realist about politics,<u+201d> he says, noting the clinton administration<u+2019>s role in a crime bill that led to an even greater disproportion of incarcerated black and latino young men. <u+201c>sometimes you hold your nose and you vote for the devil-you-know over the devil-you-don<u+2019>t-know.<u+201d> this could change, however, if sanders indeed pulls off upsets in iowa and new hampshire, and more black voters in the south take a closer look at the democratic socialist. indeed, on monday a south carolina lawmaker and lawyer for the family of walter scott, an unarmed black man shot and killed by a police officer in north charleston last year, withdrew his support for clinton and endorsed sanders instead. <u+201c>hillary clinton is more a representation of the status quo when i think about politics or about what it means to be a democrat,<u+201d> said state rep. justin bamberg (d), said on monday, according to the new york times . <u+201c>bernie sanders on the other hand is bold. he doesn<u+2019>t think like everyone else. he is not afraid to call things as they are.<u+201d> the endorsement could help sanders as he tries to make inroads among black voters before the critical south carolina primary, experts say. yet many thinkers remain unimpressed with his focus on economic solutions to the country<u+2019>s racial problems. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s not just about poor black people living in cities,<u+201d> says greer. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s about, how did those black people get to those cities, and why are they poor? they were fleeing domestic terrorism in the south, they left everything behind and worked low-wage jobs in urban centers. and then people said, we can redline them and use more aggressive policing and all those sorts of things. these aren<u+2019>t just issues of a class narrative <u+2013> it<u+2019>s also a race narrative.<u+201d>

why many black voters aren't flocking to bernie sanders

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orlando, florida (cnn) they get the bronze medal every four years in what is really a two-person race. that's what it must feel like to be a third-party candidate in a two-party country. but between donald trump's abrupt takeover of the gop and bernie sanders' climb from long-shot democratic candidacy to head of a national progressive movement, 2016 has been a year for party outsiders. and libertarians hope that could give them an opening. what gives them hope? the likely democratic and republican nominees each have historically high unfavorable numbers . media attention for the party, both the national committee chairman and the party's political director say, is at unprecedented levels. so it is with an air of opportunity to break out of obscurity that libertarians, members of the country's most prominent third party, have gathered for their national convention in orlando, florida, this weekend to officially pick a candidate to pitch to angry voters. many expect former new mexico gov. gary johnson, the libertarian presidential nominee in 2012, to leave orlando sunday evening once again his party's standard-bearer. since last week, johnson has made the rounds touting his newly minted alliance with former massachusetts gov. bill weld, who is seeking the party's vice presidential nomination. the two former governors, who both also happen to be ex-republicans, are fielding a ticket of sorts, although the libertarians elect their nominees separately and no formal ticket will exist at the convention until the party selects its presidential and vice presidential nominees. but johnson and weld first have to navigate an openly hostile convention, characterized by its insular proceedings and unwelcome to moderates. weld will have to overcome meaningful differences between his demonstrated policy preferences, particularly past support for gun control measures, and his willingness to support republican politicians. just this year, the colorful former governor endorsed ohio gov. john kasich for president. his supposed transgressions from libertarian orthodoxy have earned him outright disdain from many of the party's attendees. he received loud boos at his introduction to the party's vice presidential debate, where he stuck to reciting his conservative bona fides and applauded his opponents on stage. "we are not republican-light," larry sharpe, a vice-presidential candidate said in a takedown of the johnson-weld ticket mere inches away from the former massachusetts governor. asked after the debate, weld said he thought such attacks "were not an issue one way or another." despite his bruising reception, johnson said he would strongly prefer not to continue his bid without weld, arguing they were "arguably the two most libertarian governors that ever served." weld doubled down on this kind of rhetoric at the convention, saying that should trump win the presidency, "we will be the rogue nation. we will be the north korea." johnson, meanwhile, has several serious challengers gunning for the top spot on the third-party ticket. among them is austin petersen, a young, hardcore party advocate with strong backing in libertarian internet circles. he recently announced the endorsement of mary matalin and erick erickson, vocal anti-trump conservatives. petersen rolled through the convention, glad-handing delegates and circling back to his open-door suite, filled with meatballs and alcohol for supporters. he belted out insults for trump, calling him "cheetos-faced" and "fascist" as his supporters, who he called "freedom ninjas," hollered in support. however, in a party that generally swings liberal on social issues, petersen is unabashedly anti-abortion. he is also 35 years old. also expected to post significant support is notorious entrepreneur john mcafee, a man who has forged an international identity after becoming a pioneer in the field of cybersecurity. last fall, mcafee launched a presidential bid under the banner of his newly formed political organization, the cyber party. as the fall continued, mcafee declared his intention to seek the nomination of the libertarian party. building off of his name, his intense personality and his sweeping command of libertarian sweet spots, mcafee has made a serious bid for the top of the ticket. although mcafee has little history with the party and no experience governing, his controversies -- including going into hiding following the shooting death of a businessman near his island compound in belize -- and his lack of political experience may actually make up for it. in an election cycle dominated by a brash billionaire and reality tv star, mcafee's libidinous, shadowy, drug-fueled history and cavalier demeanor occasionally might not hurt much in a party built on opposing government control. the primary has become somewhat contentious and mcafee has repeatedly said that he will not support johnson if the former new mexico becomes the nominee. petersen said he would "pull it for gary" if the former new mexico governor won the nomination. weld said he wasn't sure what he'd do if johnson was not the nominee. "i'm in this because of gary johnson," weld said. the libertarian nominee will appear in ballots in 50 states, but... of course, securing the nomination is only one step -- and an extremely easy one, relatively speaking -- on the path to a libertarian presidency. the eventual nominee, whoever it is, will have to compete in the general election, where the odds of victory for the libertarian party stand at roughly zero. if that performance repeats itself in the 2016 general election, it will mark the 12th cycle in a row where no third party has earned a single vote in the electoral college. compared to other years and other third parties, however, the libertarians have plenty to feel good about. the libertarian party has navigated the multitude of onerous requirements for ballot access in all 50 states, a task unaccomplished by any other third party. put more simply, the libertarian nominee will be the only name outside of the mainstream choices on the presidential ballot in all 50 states on november 8. on the ballot, but not the debate stage johnson, echoing many other third-party candidates, regularly stresses the libertarian party's need to join the presidential debates. inclusion in the presidential debates requires strong poll performance, which, of course, requires inclusion in the polls themselves. from the "never trump" crowd to the nascent "bernie or bust" movement, the eventual libertarian nominee might have room to grow a base and shake up the already volatile presidential race.

libertarian party set to pick nominee at convention

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washington (cnn) donald trump got a morale boost this week -- but it likely won't be enough to propel him to the white house. after weeks of devastating headlines, the republican nominee seemed to give himself a break. he largely avoided incessant talk about allegations of sexual assault by multiple women and claims that the election is rigged -- both of which made wavering republicans nervous. the drumbeat of wikileaks disclosures yielded material to lambast hillary clinton and her family's foundation. and news of rising obamacare premiums gave him an opening to criticize president barack obama's legacy that clinton is running to inherit. trump edged up in some state surveys and cnn moved two crucial states -- florida and nevada -- from lean democratic to battleground status on its electoral map. but 11 days before the election, trump is down six points in cnn's poll of polls. his path to the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the presidency remains daunting and it will be tough to overcome the deficit in the remaining time. trump seemed to acknowledge the challenges thursday. with the new changes, cnn's electoral college map leaves clinton with 272 electoral votes from states either solidly or leaning in her direction. trump has 179 electoral votes from states either solidly or leaning in his direction. that leaves 87 electoral votes up for grabs at the moment. trump will have to pitch a perfect game to secure the ones he needs, especially as he struggles to pull states such as virginia, pennsylvania or michigan out of clinton's column. "to have a fighting chance in this election of getting to 270 electoral votes, he has to win north carolina, ohio and florida. if he does win all three that still gives him only 253 electoral votes," said ford o'connell, a gop strategist. "the biggest problem for the trump campaign is overall, where are you going to get 270? he basically almost has to run an inside straight and almost has to have them all fall into his hands." trump and his aides insist he has a path and momentum, citing huge crowds, long lines for early voting and the few polls in his favor. a fox news poll wednesday put the national gap to clinton at only three points and a bloomberg politics survey in florida said he was two points up. "i think we're going to have a tremendous victory," trump told cnn's dana bash wednesday. "if i didn't think it, i wouldn't say it." trump's schedule shows that he knows the stakes. he spent several days in florida earlier this week, was in north carolina on wednesday and spent thursday in ohio. without that trio, trump has no platform to mount what even then would be a long shot bid for the white house. clinton is of the same mind. she was in florida wednesday and plans to go back saturday. she campaigned in north carolina with first lady michelle obama on thursday. clinton could effectively stop trump in his tracks if she can win either state -- barring a huge and unpredictable upset elsewhere. if trump does win north carolina, ohio and florida, he can trace the narrowest of routes to 270 electoral votes by winning new hampshire, a congressional district in maine, iowa and nevada. but clinton is leading or in a tight race in those states. trump also cannot afford to drop any red state, and is already fighting rearguard actions in arizona and utah, and some democrats believe that georgia could be competitive. again, trump's travel is instructive -- he is campaigning in maine, new hampshire and iowa on friday. some democrats worry clinton's biggest risk is that her voters think she has the presidency in the bag and will fail to show up to vote. "no complacency here," clinton said wednesday at a rally in tampa, florida. "donald trump says he can still win and he is right. that is why it is so important everyone gets out and votes." clinton's advisers also warn that the race will probably narrow in the days to come. "quite likely we are in store for one final round of tightening," clinton spokesman brian fallon tweeted wednesday. in essence, trump's hopes rely on a huge turnout of his base voters, who are largely white and working class. he also needs significantly depressed enthusiasm among clinton voters and a poll-defying shock on the scale of brexit, the surprise british vote this year to quit the european union. trump has repeatedly said the polls are wrong. and it's true that some pre-election polls underplayed the size of obama's re-election victory in 2012 and the democratic mid-term election debacle two years later. but if he goes into election day with his current deficit, trump would require a massive polling miss outside the margin of error in multiple states. the republican nominee's own strategy makes his task even more difficult. since he has likely alienated minority and educated women with his rhetoric and behavior, trump must pull in vast numbers of new white voters <u+2014> some who may have voted for democrats in the past -- to make up for the shortfall. but the fox news poll, like some other recent surveys, suggested trump is underperforming 2012 nominee mitt romney among this core constituency. romney won white voters by 20 points over obama according to exit polls, but trump is only 14 points ahead of clinton in the poll with the same voting group. trump's problems with educated white female voters have been well documented. if those numbers hold, it means that the gop nominee must reverse trends in which white voters have become a smaller share of the electorate in recent elections. "there are just not enough white men in these battleground states for him to win this election," said tharon johnson, who ran obama's southern states strategy in his 2012 re-election bid. still, bloomberg's poll of florida does suggest trump has some traction in the state he regards as a second home <u+2014> even though most other recent surveys have given clinton a lead of a few points. some close observers of sunshine state politics do believe his intense campaigning is having an impact. "i think it has moved some polls. he has been very strategic about going into some of the media markets where there are a lot of suburban voters," said professor susan macmanus of the university of south florida, who does not rule out a late trump surge. "never say never in our state. on paper, it should be hillary's to lose. but it's not an on paper election. she has soft spots in her base, so does trump."

donald trump's tough path to the white house

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house speaker john boehner<u+2019>s stunning announcement that he will resign his post and seat in congress sparked chaos on capitol hill friday, with lawmakers immediately jockeying for position ahead of the upcoming reshuffle. <u+201c>this is going to be a barn burner of a leadership election,<u+201d> one source said. the 13-term ohio republican shocked his gop caucus early friday morning when he informed them in a closed-door session that he intends to step down at the end of october. one lawmaker told fox news he was "stunned," and that there was "some anger" in the room "against the people who caused this to happen." but the drama didn't stop the almost-immediate scramble for his gavel. some lawmakers swiftly hit the phones, making intense calls as they jockeyed for position ahead of what could potentially be an overhaul of the entire leadership team. the immediate favorite to inherit the gavel is house majority leader kevin mccarthy, r-calif., a boehner ally. fox news is told he's actively seeking the post. asked about a potential successor, boehner said that's "up to the members" but then gave mccarthy a near-endorsement: "i think kevin mccarthy would be an excellent speaker." but it is far from a done deal, with rep. jeb hensarling, r-texas; rep. pete roskam, r-ill.; and <u+00a0>rep. tom price, r-ga., thought to be potential candidates who could throw their hats into the ring. fox news learned late friday that rep. cathy mcmorris rodgers, r-wash. and house majority whip steve scalise, r-la, are both looking at running for the leadership position. the leadership battle also begins as congress still struggles over a budget measure and efforts by conservatives to defund planned parenthood as part of it.<u+00a0>even if that issue is resolved in the near-term, the next speaker will confront those same partisan divisions. not everyone wants that responsibility. rep. paul ryan, r-wis., the party's vice presidential nominee in 2012, has already ruled himself out of the race, calling the job <u+201c>a great job for empty nesters.<u+201d> for his part, roskam attempted to become whip after then-house majority leader eric cantor lost his primary race last june, and was replaced in leadership by mccarthy <u+2013> then the majority whip. however, roskam was beaten by scalise. fox news understands roskam is one of the lawmakers jockeying for position. when asked for comment, roskam warned against merely <u+201c>reshuffling the deck.<u+201d> "i'm for somebody who can bridge the divide in our conference. if we don't have a plan to get us out of this dysfunction, reshuffling the deck won't make anything better.<u+00a0>i'm going to work hard to make sure we get the leadership we need, not just settle on the fastest, easiest choice," roskam said. an aide to hensarling told fox news that he was considering his options and would expect to have a decision next week. should mccarthy succeed boehner, there would be an opening for house majority leader, as well as potentially further down the roster in positions such as majority whip. boehner<u+2019>s backing may help mccarthy<u+2019>s chances with the establishment, but may hurt him elsewhere. <u+201c>[boehner<u+2019>s backing] will help him with the establishment but not with the conservative house freedom caucus. he may face a challenge [from conservatives] but even the house freedom caucus admit they aren<u+2019>t organized, and so they may not even put up a candidate,<u+201d> gop strategist ron bonjean told foxnews.com. <u+201c>speed is the key. waiting can hurt your chances. members who can get members behind them can build momentum, and a snowball effect allows them to wrap things up. that<u+2019>s what mccarthy is going for <u+2013> there<u+2019>s already a sense of inevitability that he<u+2019>s getting the job.<u+201d> if conservatives do put forward a candidate of their own, reps. jim jordan, r-ohio and rep. ted yoho r-fla., are among the names that could be put forward. democrats, too, will almost certainly run boehner<u+2019>s predecessor -- house minority leader nancy pelosi, d-calif. -- for the post. at a press conference friday afternoon with chinese president xi jinping, president obama also voiced his own general hopes for the next speaker: <u+201c>my hope is there<u+2019>s a recognition on the part of the next speaker, something i think john understood <u+2026> that we can have significant differences on issues but that doesn<u+2019>t mean you shut down the government,<u+201d> obama said. boehner's resignation could make next week's budget battle easier to resolve in the short-term. conservatives want to use the budget measure to defund planned parenthood, and boehner previously had to worry about an internal party revolt if he tried to strike a deal with democrats to pass a "clean" budget bill. however, it also could work the other way. a lame-duck boehner could open a situation where aspiring gop leaders are put on the spot and under even more pressure from the conservative wing. once boehner resigns, the total number of members in the house will be 434. an absolute majority of the house is required to elect a new speaker, not a simple majority -- meaning the magic number of votes that a candidate must get is 218. once boehner resigns, the house will be unable to do anything until it elects a new speaker. boehner<u+2019>s resignation is rare, but not unprecedented. the last speaker to resign in the middle of a congress was speaker jim wright, d-texas who resigned in 1989 amid an ethics scandal. fox news<u+2019> chad pergram and foxnews.com's adam shaw contributed to this report

gavel battle: boehner resignation sparks house leadership scramble

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washington, feb 11 (reuters) - u.s. president barack obama singled out office supply giant staples inc as undercutting his healthcare reform law and said large corporations should not use the health insurance issue as an excuse for cutting wages, the news website buzzfeed reported. "it's one thing when you've got a mom-and-pop store who can't afford to provide paid sick leave or health insurance or minimum wage to workers but when i hear large corporations that make billions of dollars in profits trying to blame our interest in providing health insurance as an excuse for cutting back workers' wages, shame on them," obama said in an interview with buzzfeed. the affordable care act requires companies with more than 50 employees to pay for health insurance for people who work 30 hours a week or more. reuters has reported that some businesses are keeping staffing numbers below 50 or cutting the work week to less than 30 hours to avoid providing employee health insurance. staples, the no. 1 u.s. office supplies retailer, has told its employees not to work more than 25 hours per week, according to a buzzfeed report on monday. "there is no reason for an employer who is not currently providing health care to their workers to discourage them from either getting health insurance on the job or being able to avail themselves of the affordable care act," obama said in the interview tuesday. "i haven't looked at staples stock lately or what the compensation of the ceo is, but i suspect that they could well afford to treat their workers favorably and give them some basic financial security, and if they can't, then they should be willing to allow those workers to get the affordable care act without cutting wages," obama said. nearly 7.5 million people have signed up for 2015 obamacare health plans through healthcare.gov with demand increasing as the feb. 15 enrollment deadline approaches, according to government figures. staples and no. 2 office retailer office depot inc announced last week a $6.3 billion plan to join forces to compete against big box stores and online rivals. (reporting by doina chiacu, sruthi ramakrishnan, martin howell; writing by doina chiacu; editing by w simon)

obama slams staples, big companies on health care: 'shame on them'

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holed up in saudi arabia, the inner circle of president hadi is rallying tribal leaders to resist houthi rebels who control much of yemen. the risk is that if and when they regain power the central government will emerge with little authority. uber in court: is it a digital service, or an unlicensed taxi company? uber in court: is it a digital service, or an unlicensed taxi company? from the gilded suites and granite lobby of a luxurious five-star hotel here, the remnants of yemen<u+2019>s embattled government sees a daily lineup of yemeni tribal leaders, western diplomats, and saudi military commanders. over countless cups of bittersweet coffee and dates, and lobster and seafood dinners, yemeni ministers calmly toss out phrases like <u+201c>national dialogue<u+201d> and <u+201c>institution building<u+201d> as they talk up their postwar political plans. they lack the air of urgency or desperation of a government forced to take refuge with its powerful neighbor. to hear them tell it, they are a government poised to reclaim power from the shiite houthi militia and allied fighters that call the shots in much of their country. but their blueprint for victory may contain the seeds of defeat for a unitary yemeni state. as in libya, the arming of local militia to oust a common enemy could make it even harder to restore central authority in the aftermath of a civil war. over the last two weeks, the un-backed yemeni president abed rabbo mansour hadi has been working feverously to patch together a broad coalition of yemeni tribes backed by arab military intervention against the iranian-allied houthis. the result is a tribal coalition of some 70,000 fighters <u+2013> and the pledge of a saudi-egyptian expeditionary force. yemeni officials say they are preparing to retake the southern port city of aden <u+201c>within days,<u+201d> and thence fight for control over the rest of yemen. <u+201c>from day one, we have been building a coalition across all segments of yemeni society to return the rule of law,<u+201d> says yasseen makawi, a close aide to hadi who has led several talks here with yemeni tribal leaders. hadi is currently in riyadh, living under tight security. <u+201c>we will be in aden soon to start the long fight,<u+201d> mr. makawi says. so far, the saudi-led bombing campaign hasn<u+2019>t stopped the advance of the houthis, which are backed by military units loyal to former yemeni president ali abdullah saleh. on thursday, these forces captured ataq, the provincial capital of oil-rich shabwa province, after days of clashes followed by negotiations with local sunni tribes, according to news reports. for hadi<u+2019>s exiled government, the stakes are high. in order to win over the support of dozens of tribes in south and central yemen, officials have agreed in future to devolve more government powers to the provinces and tribal regions, threatening the unity of a state that was only reunified in 1990. yemeni tribal leaders see the situation as an opportunity to press for greater autonomy <u+2013> and perhaps independence. <u+201c>we are all for a democratic yemen with greater powers in the hands of the people,<u+201d> says abdullah kathiri, head of the largest tribe in hadrawmout, a wealthy province in eastern yemen who speaks openly about independence. <u+201c>with this understanding, tribes across the country are now willing to rise up.<u+201d> such ambitions speak to the centrifugal forces being unleashed in yemen. exiled officials concur that by arming and militarizing sunni tribes across the country, they may create a <u+201c>second libya<u+201d> where tribal militias roam unchallenged and refuse to answer to a weak central government. <u+201c>we do not want to place heavy arms into the hands of tribes and have them act outside the army,<u+201d> says transport minister badr mubarak ba-salma, who has led talks with tribal representatives. <u+201c>we don<u+2019>t want to finally rid ourselves of ali abdullah saleh to find ourselves with dozens of more ali abdullah salehs,<u+201d> mr. ba-salma adds, referring to the longtime ruler who stepped down in 2012. hadi replaced him as president under a saudi-backed transition that began to unravel last year. in private, hadi<u+2019>s inner circle concedes it may be a drawn-out, year-long war against the better-armed houthi militias and military units loyal to saleh, which swiftly descended from their stronghold in the northern provinces of saada and amran to claim over 80 percent of yemen<u+2019>s territory. the houthis boast a fighting force of between 80,000 and 100,000, while forces loyal to saleh number around 20,000, yemeni government officials and observers say. the houthi-saleh fighters boast superior firepower due to the fact that saleh<u+2019>s supporters include entire military units with fierce allegiances to their political and financial backer. some of this equipment is a legacy of us military aid to yemen during saleh<u+2019>s rule, which continued under hadi<u+2019>s government. the houthis control vital military installations outside sanaa and warehouses of rpgs, tanks, and armor-piercing grenade and rocket launchers. given this superior firepower, the hadi government<u+2019>s strategy is to overcome the militias with greater manpower and urge tribal and political factions to rise up town by town, village by village against what many yemenis view as houthi <u+201c>invaders<u+201d>. six military councils <u+2013> regional groupings of officers loyal to hadi <u+2013> have been tasked with coordinating with local tribal militias and the saudi-led aerial campaign. the councils have succeeded in fostering armed uprisings in aden, as well taiz in the oil-rich province of marib. however, due to the disparity in arms and lack of cohesive units, the pro-government militias have failed to even secure aden, where hadi had declared a provisional government after fleeing sanaa. to recapture aden, several hundred egyptian and saudi arabian special forces are preparing to deploy in the port city. with fighting intensifying in aden, saudi and yemeni official sources expect the operation "within the next week." however, weary of being dragged into a protracted fight, riyadh and cairo have stopped short of committing ground troops to a wider war across yemen. <u+201c>we are committed to liberating aden and reinstalling the democratically-elected government, but that is all that is being discussed,<u+201d> says a saudi military liaison close to the operations. instead, the joint arab force would be used with <u+201c>surgical precision,<u+201d> say government insiders, using force only to turn the tide in key battles in southern yemen. the hadi government has also received little commitment from the us and its western allies; officials say they left recent talks sessions with western diplomats <u+201c>frustrated<u+201d> and <u+201c>dismayed.<u+201d> <u+201c>they want us to lead the war against terrorism and extremism in yemen, but they are allowing our country to be overrun by terrorist groups,<u+201d> says a cabinet minister who refused to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue. the us has begun conducting aerial refueling of saudi-led coalition warplanes. it has also vowed to speed up delivery of weapons to saudi arabia and other gulf powers. should it regain a foothold in yemen, hadi<u+2019>s government is bracing for perhaps the largest obstacle in restoring control: the north. despite rounds of marathon talks with northern tribal and political leaders in riyadh, hadi and his team have reportedly failed to find <u+201c>ready and willing partners<u+201d> to stand up to saleh and houthi forces on their own home turf. <u+201c>there are opponents to saleh and the houthis in the north, but they are afraid they are outmatched,<u+201d> ba-salma says. <u+201c>only by breaking their military power, will we break the fear and see people in the north willing to stand up.<u+201d> in return for their participation, northern leaders want guarantees of greater power and influence for their region, which was an independent republic during 1962-90. it received a privileged status and government jobs during saleh<u+2019>s three decades in power. the government has been non-committal so far on granting greater independence to the north beyond what it agreed in a national dialogue that ended two years ago. but it has agreed to permit it greater autonomy under the federal system. hadi is also trying to peel away saleh loyalists who might defect to the government side in return for an amnesty. as an olive branch, hadi officials have promised not to dissolve military units that defect or to cashier their officers. instead, they say the military must be reconstituted as an internal security service. <u+201c>we don<u+2019>t want to make the same mistakes in iraq and turn thousands of yemeni citizens into insurgents,<u+201d> mr. makawi says. <u+201c>we are prepared to include the supporters of saleh as an integral part of a stable, federal yemen state.<u+201d>

in rush to reclaim yemen, exiled leaders risk fracturing it

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charities with ties to hillary clinton will re-file at least five tax returns after errors in how donations from foreign governments were disclosed, according to a published report. reuters reported early thursday that the errors on form 990s include<u+00a0>under-reporting or over-reporting by millions of dollars the amounts donated by foreign governments, as well as not disclosing the donations as separate from total revenue. reuters also reported that officials may audit other returns filed by the clinton foundation as far back as 15 years ago in the event of more errors being found. the report will likely add a new layer of scrutiny to the foundation, which has been criticized by republicans and ethics experts for its ongoing ties to several foreign governments during the early stages of hillary clinton's run for the 2016 democratic nomination. according to reuters, the discrepancies are not evidence of wrongdoing in and of themselves, but they do undermine the 990s purpose of holding charities accountable for their funding and expenditures. for example, between 2010 and 2012, the clinton foundation claimed on tax forms that it had not received any money from either the u.s. or foreign governments. in fact, several foreign governments gave the foundation tens of millions of dollars, which was noted on the foundation's updating donor list. in addition, reuters reports the clinton health access initiative (chai) will re-file its form 990s for 2012 and 2013 after failing to note government grants in a separate section from total revenue. chai had previously re-filed returns from 2010 and 2011 for over-reporting the amount received in government grants by over $100 million. hillary clinton resigned from the clinton foundation's board earlier this month ahead of announcing her presidential candidacy, though her husband and daughter both remain directors. click for more from reuters.

clinton charities reportedly will refile tax returns due to foreign donation reporting errors

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<u+2014> a network of conservative advocacy groups backed by charles and david koch aims to spend a staggering $889 million in advance of the next white house election, part of an expansive strategy to build on its 2014 victories that may involve jumping into the republican primaries. the massive financial goal was revealed to donors here monday during an annual winter meeting hosted by freedom partners, the tax-exempt business lobby that serves as the hub of the koch-backed political operation, according to an attendee. the amount is more than double the $407 million that 17 allied groups in the network raised during the 2012 campaign. the figure comes close to the $1<u+00a0>billion that each of the two major parties<u+2019> presidential nominees are expected to spend in 2016, and it cements the network<u+2019>s standing as one of the country<u+2019>s most potent political forces. with its resources and capabilities <u+2014> including a national field operation and cutting-edge technology <u+2014> it is challenging the primacy of the official parties. in the 2012 elections, the republican national committee spent $404 million, while the democratic national committee shelled out $319 million. the new $889 million goal reflects the anticipated budgets of all the allied groups that the network funds. those resources will go into field operations, new data-driven technology and policy work, among other projects, along with likely media campaigns aimed at shaping the congressional and white house elections. the group <u+2014> which is supported by hundreds of wealthy donors on the right, along with the kochs <u+2014> is still debating whether it will spend some of that money in the gop primaries. such a move could have a major impact in winnowing the field of contenders, but could also undercut the network<u+2019>s standing if it engaged in intraparty politics and was not successful. the three-day conference was held at a luxury resort perched on a rocky hillside near palm springs, calif., with stunning views of the palm-tree-speckled desert floor below. the event drew 450 attendees, a record number, as well as the largest number of first-time contributors to the network. saturday<u+2019>s opening dinner, held on the resort<u+2019>s wide lawn under strings of twinkling lights, celebrated a crop of new u.s. senators whose victories helped put the senate back in gop control. their bids were lifted by the freedom partners network, which had pledged to spend close to $300 million in the run-up to the november elections. sens. steve daines (mont.), joni ernst (iowa), tom cotton (ark.), thom tillis (n.c.), david perdue (ga.) and cory gardner (colo.) were on hand to thank donors, according to people familiar with the event. but much of the weekend was spent looking ahead to 2016. freedom partners president marc short said in an interview that <u+201c>2014 was nice, but there<u+2019>s a long way to go,<u+201d> noting that the group<u+2019>s ultimate goal is to make free-market ideals central in american society. <u+201c>politics is a necessary means to that end,<u+201d> he said, but not the only one. much of the conclave served as an information-gathering exercise for network officials, who are assessing whether financiers will coalesce around a single candidate in the gop presidential contest. at this point, some contributors have said they have little interest in putting money into a bloody internal fight, and many others are not yet set on a candidate. few here suggested they would support 2012 nominee mitt romney, who is considering another run in 2016. among the favorites are wisconsin gov. scott walker, former florida governor jeb bush, sen. marco rubio (fla.) and sen. rand paul (ky.). <u+201c>it<u+2019>s not as if there<u+2019>s one perfect champion and five bad individuals,<u+201d> said one person familiar with donors<u+2019> views, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share private conversations. the kochs<u+2019> moves are being carefully watched by operatives throughout the party, who are well aware of how the brothers could alter the trajectory of the race if they took sides in the primaries. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s not like a chicago political boss where charles would say, <u+2018>we<u+2019>re all for this guy,<u+2019><u+2009><u+201d> said conservative activist grover norquist, who has attended past koch donor seminars. <u+201c>but if he said, <u+2018>i really like this guy<u+2019> and did an op-ed, it would matter.<u+201d> the network<u+2019>s influence was underlined by the number of prospective 2016 contenders who flocked to rancho mirage to mingle with the deep-pocketed crowd. walker arrived saturday from iowa, after addressing conservative activists at a forum in des moines. that night, over an al fresco dinner of filet mignon, the wisconsin governor thanked the freedom partners donors for their past support and touted his efforts to curb state spending. sunday night, paul, rubio and sen. ted cruz (tex.) were on hand to participate in a panel about the economy and foreign policy moderated by abc<u+2019>s jonathan karl. the three senators aimed some of their comments at the business leaders in the audience, touting their support for cutting taxes and regulations, and dismissed a question about whether wealthy donors have too much influence on politics. <u+201c>there are a bunch of democrats who have taken as their talking points that the koch brothers are the nexus of all evil in the world,<u+201d> said cruz, calling that thinking <u+201c>grotesque and offensive.<u+201d> <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t know a single person in this room who has ever been to my office .<u+2009>.<u+2009>. asking from government any special access,<u+201d> rubio added. <u+201c>by and large what they want is to be left alone.<u+201d> the panel was available to news organizations via a live web stream, part of a new posture of openness embraced by the usually private organization. for the first time, freedom partners shared details about the donor conclave, including excerpts of charles koch<u+2019>s welcoming remarks. still, some critics scoffed at the idea that the group was being transparent. on saturday, a handful of protesters stood at the base of the curving driveway that leads up to the resort, waving a large american flag and holding signs denouncing the kochs. <u+201c>they claim they<u+2019>re being more open,<u+201d> said tracy turner, a 49-year-old retiree from palm springs, noting that the news media was barred from the event. <u+201c>clearly, that<u+2019>s not the case. they<u+2019>re scripting it very carefully.<u+201d> started by charles koch in 2003 and originally hosted by koch industries, the twice-a-year donor seminars are now sponsored by freedom partners. the network has evolved into a sophisticated political operation that mirrors those of the official parties. along with its main political advocacy arm, americans for prosperity, the network finances groups such as concerned veterans for america, the libre initiative and generation opportunity. last year, it added a super pac to its arsenal, but most of the allied groups are nonprofits that do not disclose their donors. network officials used the conference to lay out ambitious goals to promote free-market principles in government, business and the media. there were also frank assessments of what they need to do to refine their tactics. one area seen as a major improvement over 2012 was how the network uses data to improve its voter outreach. another major 2014 investment <u+2014> expanding a national field organization <u+2014> was also viewed as promising, but officials believe it will take time to make it more effective. in the coming year, allied groups in the network will put a renewed focus on the issue of <u+201c>crony capitalism<u+201d> and will pressure democrats and republicans alike on issues such as tax-code reform and the export-import bank, according to people familiar with the plans. denver investor john saeman, a veteran cable executive who has been a longtime supporter of the network, described the mood as <u+201c>measured.<u+201d> <u+201c>it<u+2019>s very much of staying the course,<u+201d> he said during a break between sessions. <u+201c>this is a battle for hearts and minds.<u+201d> in his speech saturday night, charles koch exhorted his fellow donors to deepen their commitment. <u+201c>it is up to us,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>making this vision a reality will require more than a financial commitment. it requires making it a central part of our lives.<u+201d>

koch-backed network aims to spend nearly $1 billion ahead of 2016 elections, may engage in gop primaries

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the first time the affordable care act came before the supreme court, its constitutional foundation under attack, john g. roberts jr. was its unlikely savior. in a spectacular display of spot-welding, the chief justice joined fellow conservatives on some points and brought liberals on board for others. roberts was the only member of the court to endorse the entire jerry-rigged thing, and even he made sure to distance himself from the substance of the law. (<u+201c>it is,<u+201d> he wrote, <u+201c>not our job to protect the people from the consequences of their political choices.<u+201d>) still, his efforts rescued president obama<u+2019>s signature achievement on grounds that many had dismissed as an afterthought. as long as justice anthony m. kennedy is on the court, he will most often be the decider when the justices split along their familiar ideological fault lines. but, slowly and quietly, roberts is the one trying to build its legacy. he sees it as somehow exempt from the partisan fugue that long ago enveloped washington. justice stephen g. breyer has worried that the public might see him and his colleagues as <u+201c>nine junior-varsity politicians<u+201d>; public approval of the supreme court is falling. but while all of the justices bristle at the notion of a political court, the eponymous head of the roberts court has the most to lose. after all, its decisions cannot be respected if the court is not respected. <u+201c>it is a very serious threat to the independence and integrity of the courts to politicize them,<u+201d> roberts said at his 2005 confirmation hearings. roberts, 60, jokes about the <u+201c>odd historical quirk<u+201d> that gives the chief justice only one vote. but he has learned to use the tools that come with the job: he shapes the discussion at conference; he writes the court<u+2019>s opinion, or assigns it strategically, when he is in the majority; he<u+2019>s happy to settle for nonthreatening, incremental changes that may bloom later into something more. and last term, what roberts has described as the chief justice<u+2019>s <u+201c>particular obligation to try to achieve consensus<u+201d> paid off. the share of unanimous decisions soared to 66 percent, a level not seen since the 1940s. the share of 5-to-4 decisions, high during roberts<u+2019>s tenure compared with those of other chief justices, fell to 14 percent, the lowest since he joined the court. and then here comes obamacare ii. in king v. burwell , to be argued wednesday, plaintiffs say the text of the law must be interpreted in a way that would neuter it, canceling health insurance subsidies for about 7.5<u+00a0>million americans in at least 34 states. can roberts<u+2019>s portrayal of the supreme court as above politics survive another round with the most partisan issue of the decade? roberts, of course, has not ceased to be a conservative. before obamacare <u+2014> or since <u+2014> it<u+2019>s hard to think of a case in which he has not voted the way conservative activists had hoped when they recommended him to president george w. bush. the roberts court has been described as the most pro-business in history. its liberals complain that consumers are on a losing streak and that the court has imposed new roadblocks for those trying to prove discrimination. and when the issue is important to the chief justice, or when there seems to be no chance for compromise, he has been decisive. in a suite of cases, for instance, the court has systematically dismantled campaign finance restrictions, calling them hostile to free speech rights <u+2014> citizens united v. federal election commission being the most famous of several 5-to-4 votes. roberts wrote the majority opinion in the most recent, which featured the republican national committee as a plaintiff. he has also forcefully opposed the government<u+2019>s use of racial classifications, and he wrote to strike down a key provision of the voting rights act. roberts, unlike kennedy or even justice antonin scalia, had never been the lone conservative to join the court<u+2019>s liberals to make a majority in a major case <u+2014> until the affordable care act. yet chief justices tend not to see the court as a vehicle for advancing their unadulterated ideas. a transformation came over roberts<u+2019>s predecessor and mentor, william h. rehnquist, after becoming chief. as an associate justice, rehnquist wrote so many solo dissents that his clerks awarded him a lone ranger doll. but like chief justices before him, in his new role he felt a responsibility to guard the court<u+2019>s precedents and image. the most famous example is his metamorphosis on the miranda rule, requiring police officers to read suspects their rights. for years, rehnquist had denounced the rule as constitutionally unsound. but after his ascent he voted to uphold it, saying the warnings <u+201c>have become part of our national culture.<u+201d> roberts came to the court as chief, so there is no similar evolution to judge. but those who know him say his vision of the responsibilities of the chief is paramount. <u+201c>associate justice roberts would be much closer to scalia than chief justice roberts is in terms of their approach to cases,<u+201d> says one lawyer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he argues supreme court cases. anticipating this approach, roberts pledged himself to the principle of stare decisis at his confirmation hearings and preached a gospel of judicial modesty, saying he came with <u+201c>no agenda.<u+201d> while he can<u+2019>t change washington<u+2019>s partisan warfare, roberts does what he can to avoid becoming a weapon in it, those who know him say. unlike his colleagues, he does not give interviews. he avoids partisan gatherings such as the federalist society<u+2019>s annual gala (where scalia and justices clarence thomas and samuel a. alito jr. take turns providing the after-dinner remarks) or the american constitution society (where justices ruth bader ginsburg and sonia sotomayor have been honored). even the bipartisan gridiron dinner, where the nation<u+2019>s political elite gather for gentle roasts, may have proved too much for roberts: there<u+2019>s always a seat at the head table for the chief justice of the united states, but this one hasn<u+2019>t attended since 2009. his protection of the court<u+2019>s image extends to his colleagues. in the first affordable care act case, conservative activists and pols demanded that justice elena kagan recuse herself because of her work as obama<u+2019>s solicitor general, while liberal groups called for thomas to step aside because his wife is a prominent conservative activist. roberts, without specifically mentioning either, tried to shut down those complaints in his annual <u+201c>state of the judiciary<u+201d> report that year. <u+201c>i have complete confidence in the capability of my colleagues to determine when recusal is warranted,<u+201d> he wrote. <u+201c>they are jurists of exceptional integrity and experience whose character and fitness have been examined through a rigorous appointment and confirmation process.<u+201d> but the consensus compulsion is clearest when the court issues narrow opinions. with obamacare, for instance, roberts bobbed and weaved, agreeing with conservatives that congress had exceeded its power to regulate interstate commerce but also siding with liberals to save the individual mandate by calling it a tax. in the last term, narrow rulings made it possible for the court to unite, at least on the bottom line, in striking down abortion-clinic buffer zones in massachusetts and rejecting efforts to restrict class-action suits alleging security fraud. his efforts are not universally revered. <u+201c>john roberts, thy name is traitor,<u+201d> one conservative news site blared after the obamacare decision. glenn beck offered t-shirts with roberts<u+2019>s smiling face and the word <u+201c>coward<u+201d> underneath. john yoo, a former justice department official in the george w. bush administration, wrote that this coming week<u+2019>s challenge gives roberts a chance to <u+201c>atone.<u+201d> scalia, a frequent roberts ally, once mocked roberts<u+2019>s <u+201c>faux judicial modesty.<u+201d> and in last term<u+2019>s case on the buffer zones, he dismissed the chief<u+2019>s majority opinion as <u+201c>something for everyone.<u+201d> roberts insists that the nation<u+2019>s poisonous political climate, rather than anything the justices have done, is to blame for damage to the court<u+2019>s reputation. but he lives in a universe with a gridlocked congress, a combative president who calls out the court at his state of the union address and colleagues identified as often by party affiliation as by their judicial philosophies. <u+201c>today<u+2019>s partisan split, while unprecedented, is likely enduring,<u+201d> says a study of the court by professors neal devins of william & mary and lawrence baum of ohio state. <u+201c>a five-member democratic court will reach sets of decisions that are quite different from those of a five-member republican court.<u+201d> perhaps then political tensions are simply inescapable. but paradoxically, the court is hard to characterize precisely because of its close balance. the roberts court has found rights for guantanamo detainees; ruled that the second amendment secures an individual right to keep guns; handed gay rights activists some of their most important victories; drastically cut back on the ability of legislatures to restrict campaign contributions; and narrowed the options for punishing juvenile defendants. alternating liberal and conservative victories on this term<u+2019>s two most important cases <u+2014> gay marriage and health care <u+2014> offer similar chances for <u+201c>balance<u+201d> when the justices complete their work this june. the court<u+2019>s conflicting messages usually depend on kennedy siding either with the conservative justices or the liberal ones. but about two-thirds of the time, the reagan appointee finds his natural home on the right. and while such snapshots can be misleading, in the last term roberts agreed with kennedy more than any other justice did. kennedy was on the winning side in more opinions than any of his colleagues; roberts was right behind. this hardly means that either side sees the court as a neutral arbiter. most liberal analysts praised roberts<u+2019>s first obamacare decision, but some forecast that his reasoning would be used to secure conservative victories in the future. others speculated that it gave roberts <u+201c>cover<u+201d> to move on to issues about which he felt more strongly. they felt vindicated a year later when he sided with his conservative colleagues and wrote the 5-to-4 opinion striking down a crucial component of the voting rights act. roberts appears to know this. at an appearance at the university of nebraska law school last fall, he talked about how gridlock between obama and congressional republicans means collateral damage for the nine justices, too. <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t want it to spill over and affect us,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>we are not democrats and republicans in how we go about it, and in nine years i<u+2019>ve never seen any political issue like that arise between us.<u+201d> he worried that the near-party-line confirmation of <u+201c>somebody as eminently qualified as our newest member,<u+201d> kagan, could suggest that people perceive the court, too, as a political body. it is a perception that, despite roberts<u+2019>s zealous labors, the court could soon reinforce, at least on the left. <u+201c>a 5-to-4 decision invalidating the premium tax credits<u+201d> in king v. burwell <u+201c>would seriously call into question the legitimacy of the court,<u+201d> tim jost, a washington and lee university law professor and health-care expert, said in a video distributed by the liberal center for american progress. <u+201c>i think it<u+2019>s going to be [decided] pretty transparently for political reasons.<u+201d> follow our updates on facebook and twitter.

obamacare threatens john roberts<u+2019>s dream of a nonpartisan supreme court

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washington <u+2014> president barack obama's trade agenda has cleared a key senate hurdle to move toward a final vote. the senate has topped the 60 votes needed to begin substantive action on obama's bid for "fast track" negotiating authority. the vote was 62-38. obama says fast track authority will improve prospects for a trade treaty with 11 other pacific-rim nations. labor unions and other groups vital to democrats strongly oppose obama's trade agenda. they say free-trade deals cost u.s. jobs. obama says u.s. producers need broader access to foreign markets.

obama's trade agenda clears key senate hurdle

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aaron david miller is a vice president and distinguished scholar at the woodrow wilson international center for scholars and author of "the end of greatness: why america can't have (and doesn't want) another great president." miller, a middle east negotiator in democratic and republican administrations, discusses the paris attacks in this wilson center video . follow him on twitter @aarondmiller2 . the opinions expressed in this commentary are his. (cnn) anyone hoping that the paris attacks will somehow transform the fight against global jihad and produce a quick and definitive defeat for the bad guys and victory for the good ought to take a deep breath. we must take advantage of the paris carnage to mobilize international and regional allies in the fight; but we should have no illusions it will produce quick or even lasting victories. even if the paris attacks turn out to be transformative event; they're likely to represent another turn in the very long war against global jihad. here are six reasons why. <u+2022> it's a long war because 15 years after 9/11 and decades after islamic suicide terror made its middle eastern debut in lebanon with hezbollah attacks against u.s. marines and embassies, we're still fighting it. the dismantling of al qaeda central and the killing of osama bin laden hasn't ended the threat; it has morphed and evolved into other groups such as isis, khorasan and al qaeda in the arabian peninsula. <u+2022> it's the long war because as necessary and vital as military airstrikes are, they can't provide the definitive answer to the problem. indeed, 9/11 resulted in the two longest wars in american history and partly helped to create the situation we face today. massive airstrikes and deployment of thousands of ground forces without securing an end state that ensures coherent and stable governance will not address the underlying conditions on which the jihadis feed. in fact, the budding grand alliance (france, the u.s. and russia) will be perceived by radical muslims as a war between the christian west and islam and will only feed jihadi propaganda and even boost recruitment. <u+2022> it's a long war because key arab states are melting down. in libya, yemen, syria and iraq there is neither good, stable nor coherent governance. instead, you have large and empty and ungovernable spaces; sectarian tensions between sunnis and shia empowering transnational actors willing and able to fill the vacuum. even in a country like egypt, we now see a home-grown insurgency affiliated with the islamic state that has already destroyed a russian commercial airliner. even if the syrian civil war ended, the jihadi insurgency would continue feeding on local grievances; indeed, paradoxically you might see a surge of foreign fighters flocking to egypt to continue the struggle. it's the long war because the west cannot win the fight against radical islam until the muslim majority begins to confront and deal with the cancer of the extremist ideology within its midst. the west continues to infantilize muslims by somehow assuming that the war against the jihadis can be won with the great powers taking the lead role. "where is the panel... on the sunday talk shows where you have muslim leaders alongside western leaders to talk about how they're going to conquer this problem," the west continues to infantilize muslims by somehow assuming that the war against the jihadis can be won with the great powers taking the lead role. "where is the panel... on the sunday talk shows where you have muslim leaders alongside western leaders to talk about how they're going to conquer this problem," asked princeton professor amaney a. jamal. instead, we get westerners talking at muslims about how to resolve their problems. indeed, islam needs reform by muslim reformers who can offer an alternative vision to counter the one the jihadis are peddling; and leaders of these countries need to engage in political and economic reform to eliminate the grievances on which the jihadis feed. <u+2022> it's the long war because isis has jumped borders and morphed into an idea as well as a physical movement or proto terror state. and that idea can inspire the disenchanted, alienated and aggrieved and create a sense of aspiration -- violent though it may be -- in otherwise purposeless lives. europe is a fertile breeding ground -- 20 million muslims out of 1.4 billion; and fully a fifth of the recruits to isis hail from european lands. european security services are overwhelmed with the challenge of tracking and preempting terror attacks and will continue to be. and it may be a longer war, unless we start describing accurately the nature of the challenge we face. sure this is violent, extremism producing heinous acts as both president barack obama and secretary john kerry have said. but it's also a particularly vicious kind of terror. it's driven by a global jihad of radical and extremist muslims who draw on actual and perversions of islamic texts to kill muslims and non-muslims in an effort to impose their twisted vision of the world. we need to delegitimize the radicals and also be careful with our words so that we don't alienate the vast majority of the world's muslims who despise what a minority does in its name. john kerry's sure this is violent, extremism producing heinous acts as both president barack obama and secretary john kerry have said. but it's also a particularly vicious kind of terror. it's driven by a global jihad of radical and extremist muslims who draw on actual and perversions of islamic texts to kill muslims and non-muslims in an effort to impose their twisted vision of the world. we need to delegitimize the radicals and also be careful with our words so that we don't alienate the vast majority of the world's muslims who despise what a minority does in its name. john kerry's recent comments seemingly drawing an understandable distinction between the charlie hebdo terror attacks and those in paris are just the kind of stumble we need to avoid. the global jihad cannot destroy europe, america, western civilization or fundamentally alter the contours of history. global jihad is driven by a vicious, fascist ideology that can cause terrible suffering and destruction. and should these groups gain access to chemical or biological weapons, we'd face a catastrophe. still, the council on foreign relations' micah zenko notes that "terrorism represents only a small fraction of overall violent deaths. the annual number of violent deaths worldwide is 508,000, according to the "global burden of armed violence 2015: every body counts" report. in other words, less than 7% of violent deaths are a result of acts of terrorism. compare the 32,727 terrorist fatalities to the estimated 377,000 people who were killed, collectively, in interpersonal violence, gang violence or economically motived crimes." some 63% of all attacks occurred in just six countries: iraq, pakistan, afghanistan, india, nigeria and syria. this isn't yet a world war ii-level scourge, even though the challenge of global jihad may well be the most critical national security challenge we face today. but, sadly, unlike the second world war, this conflict will be far longer. we need to prepare for what promises to be the long war of the 21st century.

fighting isis will be a long war

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hillary clinton<u+2019>s nightmare is not the sudden resurgence of bernie sanders. it is the fidelity to the rule of law of the fbi. the recent revelations of the receipt by clinton of a special access program email, as well as cut and pasted summaries of state secrets on her server and on her blackberry nearly guarantee that the fbi will recommend that the department of justice convene a grand jury and seek her indictment for espionage. here is the backstory. it seems that every week, more information comes to light about clinton<u+2019>s grave legal woes. her worries are in two broad categories: one is her well-documented failure to safeguard state secrets and the other is her probable use of her position as secretary of state to advance financially her husband<u+2019>s charitable foundation. the fbi is currently and aggressively investigating both. what i will describe below is in the state secrets category. it is apparently not new to the fbi, but it is new to the public. among the data that the fbi either found on the clinton server or acquired from the state department via its responses to freedom of information act requests is a top-secret email that has been denominated special access program. top secret is the highest category of state secrets (the other categories are confidential and secret), and of the sub-parts of top secret, sap is the most sensitive. sap is clothed in such secrecy that it cannot be received or opened accidentally. clinton -- who ensured all of her governmental emails came to her through her husband<u+2019>s server, a nonsecure nongovernmental venue -- could only have received or viewed it from that server after inputting certain codes. those codes change at unscheduled times, such that she would need to inquire of them before inputting them. the presence of the sap-denominated email on her husband<u+2019>s server, whether opened or not, shows a criminal indifference to her lawful obligation to maintain safely all state secrets entrusted to her care. yet, clinton has suggested that she is hopelessly digitally inept and may not have known what she was doing. this constitutes an attempted plausible deniability to the charge of failing to safeguard state secrets. but in this sensitive area of the law, plausible deniability is not an available defense; no judge would permit the assertion of it in legal filings or in a courtroom, and no lawyer would permit a client to make the assertion. this is so for two reasons. first, failure to safeguard state secrets is a crime for which the government need not prove intent. the failure can be done negligently. thus, plausible deniability is actually an admission of negligence and, hence in this case, an admission of guilt, not a denial. second, clinton signed an oath under penalty of perjury on jan. 22, 2009, her first full day as secretary of state. in that oath, she acknowledged that she had received a full fbi briefing on the lawfully required care and keeping of state secrets. her briefing and her oath specified that the obligation to safeguard state secrets is absolute -- it cannot be avoided or evaded by forgetfulness or any other form of negligence, and that negligence can bring prosecution. what type of data is typically protected by the sap denomination? the most sensitive under the sun -- such as the names of moles (spies working for more than one government) and their american handlers, the existence of black ops (illegal programs that the u.s. government carries out, of which it will deny knowledge if exposed), codes needed to access state secrets and ongoing intelligence gathering projects. the crime here occurs when saps are exposed by residing in a nonsecure venue; it does not matter for prosecution purposes whether they fell into the wrong hands. clinton<u+2019>s persistent mocking of the seriousness of all this is the moral equivalent of taunting alligators before crossing a stream. saps are so sensitive that most of the fbi agents who are investigating clinton lack the security clearances needed to view the sap found among her emails. most fbi agents have never seen a sap. shortly after the presence of the sap-denominated email was made known, the state department released another email clinton failed to erase wherein she instructed her subordinates to take state secrets from a secure venue, to cut and paste and summarize them, and send them to her on her nonsecure venue. such an endeavor, if carried out, is a felony -- masking and then not safeguarding state secrets. such a command to subordinates can only come from a criminal mind. equally as telling is a little-known 2013 speech that recently surfaced given by one of clinton<u+2019>s former subordinates. the aide revealed that clinton and her staff regularly engaged in digital conversations about state secrets on their blackberries. this is not criminal if the blackberries were government-issued and secured. clinton<u+2019>s was neither. it was purchased at her instructions off the shelf by one of her staff. can anyone doubt that clinton has failed to safeguard state secrets? if her name were hillary rodham instead of hillary rodham clinton, she<u+2019>d have been indicted months ago. what remains of the rule of law in america? the fbi will soon tell us. andrew p. napolitano, a former judge of the superior court of new jersey, is the senior judicial analyst at fox news channel.

hillary clinton's worst nightmare: hint -- it's not bernie sanders

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it is endlessly suspicious when politicians control the process by which they and their allies are elected. yet arizona lawmakers had been battling their own citizens for precisely this power, in a lawsuit that culminated monday in a 5-4 supreme court decision upholding the right of voters <u+2014> not legislators <u+2014> to control how electoral districts are drawn. in 2000, arizonans voted to take the state legislature out of the redistricting process. they hoped to curb partisan gerrymandering by creating an independent, bipartisan commission that would handle the duty of redrawing state and federal voting districts after every census. the commission<u+2019>s redistricting plan led to democratic wins in 2012, which upset the gop-controlled legislature. republicans claimed that the whole process was unconstitutional because the founding fathers specifically commanded state legislatures to run elections. they were referring to the constitution<u+2019>s elections clause, which reads as follows: yes, this is another supreme court case that hinges on the meaning of a word. here, the word is <u+201c>legislature.<u+201d> does the constitution refer solely to a state<u+2019>s body of elected representatives? or does the term <u+201c>legislature<u+201d> here lend itself to a broader interpretation, one that would allow citizens to have a direct say in how elections are conducted? writing for the majority, justice ruth bader ginsberg argued that the power of regulating elections should ultimately lie with the people <u+2014> such is the spirit of democracy, after all. <u+201c>[i]t would be perverse to interpret the term <u+2018>legislature<u+2019> in the elections clause so as to exclude lawmaking by the people, particularly where such lawmaking is intended to check legislators<u+2019> ability to choose the district lines they run in,<u+201d> she wrote. in his dissent, chief justice john g. roberts jr. accused his fellow justices of fudging the law to bless a policy that they liked. <u+201c>the majority today shows greater concern about redistricting practices than about the meaning of the constitution,<u+201d> he wrote. let<u+2019>s stop there for a second. regardless of how the decision was achieved, it protects an important attempt by citizens to ensure fair elections at a time when politics is<u+00a0>become increasingly bitter and undemocratic. one unfortunate fact of american politics is that election districts are becoming more and more misshapen. recently, stephen ansolabehere, a professor at harvard, and maxwell palmer, an assistant professor at boston university, crunched the numbers on the past 200 years of congressional district shapes. the researchers used several different ways to measure how convoluted a district<u+2019>s borders are. all of the methods tend to agree that district complexity has substantially increased since the 1970s. the changes occurred across the board. both simple and raggedy districts are starting to look weirder and weirder. of course, just because a district looks ugly doesn<u+2019>t mean it<u+2019>s unfairly drawn. it<u+2019>s important to create districts that represent natural communities, and communities often have irregular boundaries. it<u+2019>s equally important to preserve minority representation, and sometimes districts look like spaghetti in order to prevent the minority vote in a state from being diluted. partisan gerrymandering can<u+2019>t be detected solely by examining geography and geometry. there<u+2019>s culture and history to consider. that<u+2019>s also why courts and lawmakers have struggled to define what is an unacceptable level of gerrymandering. the process is subjective. for instance, ansolabehere and palmer also found that the weirdest-looking districts tend to vote democratic. that doesn<u+2019>t prove that democrats are the more shameless gerrymanderers, though. besides, democratic voters tend to concentrate in urban areas, which can make it hard to draw compact voting districts that are also fair. a 2013 paper published in the quarterly journal of political science argued that the clustering of democratic voters creates a natural republican bias when districts are drawn up. political scientists jowei chen, of the university of michigan, and jonathan rodden, of stanford, call the phenomenon <u+201c>unintentional gerrymandering.<u+201d> to demonstrate, chen and rodden used a computer to randomly draw district plans using data from the 2000 presidential election in florida. famously, the popular vote in florida split more or less evenly between george w. bush and al gore. so in a fair, representative plan, you might expect half the districts to go for bush, and half for gore. but across hundreds of versions of these randomly generated district maps <u+2014> paragons of disinterested district making <u+2014> a bias emerged. on average, three-fifths of districts went for bush, even though half of the population was voting for gore. the explanation, according to chen and rodden, is that democratic voters are at a disadvantage by dint of their living patterns. democratic voters concentrate either in big cities, or in democratic enclaves (black suburbs, college towns) scattered across the state. the downtown districts are overwhelmingly democratic, while the small democratic outposts tend to get engulfed by their republican neighbors. more equal representation might result if planners could better distribute democratic voters <u+2014> perhaps, say, by appending some solidly democratic urban neighborhoods to purplish suburban districts. but at some point that starts to look like gerrymandering, doesn<u+2019>t it? the complex, cross-cutting considerations involved in redistricting provide cover for partisan shenanigans. when legislators start to get creative with district borders, are they adjusting for a state<u+2019>s uneven political geography? or are they angling for an advantage? putting the process in the hands of an independent body is one way to make matters a little more fair. political scientists have generally observed that courts and independent commissions tend to design more competitive districts. in a study of congressional elections from 1972<u+2013>2012, researchers at the university of georgia and the university of texas at austin found that districts drawn by legislators are significantly less likely to result in close elections, even after controlling for polarization, candidate quality and regional differences. but this effect is only prominent from 1992 onward: the researchers suspect that computers deserve much of the blame. by 1991, all but four states were using geographic information programs to guide their redistricting efforts. nowadays, any legislator with a laptop can call on software to concoct districts with whatever characteristics they like. gerrymandering has never been this easy, or data-driven. perhaps, then, it is no coincidence that some of the most tortured-looking districts were designed in recent years, as these maps from ansolabehere and palmer show: independent redistricting commissions are supposed to curb gerrymandering but most lack full control of the redistricting process. some are restricted to making suggestions, which legislatures can vote down or amend. others step in only after the legislature has stalemated. like the filibuster, the power of redistricting is a political tool that both parties are loath to give up. legislatures in 42 states still have the final say when it comes to determining districts for house seats in congress. and in 37 states, legislators control the redistricting process for their own state legislative districts. in arizona and california, citizens used ballot initiatives to wrest that power away from their legislators. the independent commissions in these states are completely in charge of redistricting. their maps cannot be changed or overruled by the legislature. to keep politics at bay, these committees are kept strictly bipartisan, with reserved seats for democrats, republicans, and independents. selection rules exclude politicians and those who work for them. california went as far to use a lottery to pick some of the commissioners. despite the cautionary measures, these committees have been the site of considerable partisan bitterness. there have been allegations that the non-partisan members on the commission secretly favor one side, and that the technical staff assisting the commissions introduced bias into the process. for these and other reasons, the resulting district plans have consistently been challenged in court. as political scientist bruce cain writes: in fact, monday<u+2019>s case was merely the first of two gop lawsuits before the supreme court involving redistricting in arizona. now after the court has established that arizona<u+2019>s independent commission is constitutional, it will consider whether the commission<u+2019>s most recent redistricting map apportioned republicans fairly. on tuesday, the court announced that it will hear this second lawsuit some time next session. many political scientists say that all the fuss over gerrymandering amounts to wasted breath. recent decades have seen large decreases in the number of competitive house districts, and large increases in political polarization <u+2014> but these twin trends can<u+2019>t be blamed on gerrymandering alone. in a 2006 paper published in the journal of politics, emory researchers pointed out that house elections have been getting less competitive even during years when district boundaries haven<u+2019>t changed. if gerrymandering alone were the culprit, the number of competitive seats should plummet after each redistricting <u+2014> between 1990 and 1992, or 2000 and 2002, or 2010 and 2012. but the changes that happen between redistricting years have been modest. furthermore, princeton political scientist nolan mccarty has noted that political polarization increased just as fast in the senate as in the house. since senators are elected in statewide races, they aren<u+2019>t affected by gerrymandering. yet, the senate, too, has been paralyzed by partisan rancor. [what we know and don<u+2019>t know about our polarized politics] gerrymandering, it seems, is a symptom of increasing viciousness in politics <u+2014> not the root cause. but that<u+2019>s even more of a reason for states to safeguard the district-making process from partisanship. the ongoing fight in arizona has demonstrated that political parties will battle tooth and nail to tilt the electoral map in their favor. arizona and california<u+2019>s experiments in independent redistricting attempt<u+00a0>to de-politicize redistricting by appointing citizen committees. it<u+2019>s possible to take that idea one step further. these days, software and cheap computing gives every citizen the power to create their own district maps. opening up the redistricting process to public participation<u+00a0>and review would offer<u+00a0>one more check against legislators acting in their own self interest. that tracks the<u+00a0>spirit of<u+00a0>monday<u+2019>s decision, in which ginsburg borrowed<u+00a0>liberally from founding father james madison. <u+201c>the genius of republican liberty seems to demand . . .<u+00a0>not only that all power should be derived from the people,<u+00a0>but that those intrusted with it should be kept in dependence<u+00a0>on the people,<u+201d> she quoted. she wrote: <u+201c>the people of arizona turned to the initiative to curb the practice of gerrymandering and, thereby, to ensure that members of congress would have <u+2018>an habitual recollection of their dependence on the people.'<u+201d> independent redistricting commissions won<u+2019>t<u+00a0>heal the nasty rift in<u+00a0>american politics. but at the very least, they<u+00a0>would<u+00a0>ensure that any<u+00a0>nastiness<u+00a0>be entirely representative of the american public.

gerrymandering didn<u+2019>t make politics this vicious. but vicious politics will soon make gerrymandering so much worse.

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gun control, homegrown extremism, homophobic violence and the war against islamic state have all been highlighted by the orlando nightclub massacre, but deadlock in washington means major legislation will probably have to wait until after the november election. whoever wins the us presidency will find an in-tray where the threat of terrorism at home, and the commitment to wars abroad, grinds on 15 years after the terrorist attacks of 11 september 2001. barack obama, hillary clinton, and senate democrats went on the front foot on monday, calling for laws that would make it harder for terrorists to get their hands on firearms, in particular assault rifles. in a vivid illustration of ideological division, however, republican flag-bearer donald trump opposed gun control measures, lambasted the immigration system as <u+201c>dysfunctional<u+201d> and claimed vindication in his call for a ban on foreign-born muslims entering the us. a landslide victory for clinton or trump, with reflected gains in congress, could give one or the other a mandate for change lacking during the obama years. in the meantime there is realpolitik. with obama facing a republican-led house and senate, the prospects for action are remote even after the killing of 49 people in the worst mass shooting in american history. even so, senate democrats lost little time on monday in urging quick passage of legislation defeated last year to impose additional gun controls. the bill would prevent people on <u+201c>terror watch lists<u+201d> and other <u+201c>suspected terrorists<u+201d> from buying firearms or explosives. the killer in orlando has been identified as omar mateen, a 29-year-old american-born muslim, whose weapons included an ar-15 semi-automatic rifle. fbi officials said they had investigated him in 2013 and 2014 on suspicion of terrorist sympathies but could not make a case against him. obama himself weighed in on monday. <u+201c>the fact that we make it this challenging for law enforcement, for example, even to get alerted that somebody who they are watching has purchased a gun <u+2013> and if they do get alerted, sometimes it<u+2019>s hard for them to stop them from getting a gun <u+2013> is crazy. it<u+2019>s a problem. and we have to, i think, do some soul-searching. <u+201c>but again, the danger here is, is that then it ends up being the usual political debate. and the nra and the gun control folks say that, oh, obama doesn<u+2019>t want to talk about terrorism. and if you talk about terrorism, then people say: why aren<u+2019>t you looking at issues of gun control?<u+201d> at the start of his second term, obama pushed legislation to expand background checks, ban certain assault-style weapons and cap the size of ammunition clips. that measure collapsed in the senate and there has been little movement since. but if trump provokes an electoral backlash, handing sweeping victories to democrats, there could be new opportunities for clinton, who has been more outspoken on the issue than candidates in previous years. on monday, she told a rally in cleveland, ohio: <u+201c>if the fbi is watching you for suspected terrorist links, you should not be able to just go buy a gun with no questions asked. and you shouldn<u+2019>t be able to exploit loopholes and evade criminal background checks by buying online or at a gun show. and yes, if you<u+2019>re too dangerous to get on a plane, you are too dangerous to buy a gun in america.<u+201d> yet the watchlist argument is less simple than meets the eye. the no-fly list, for example, has come under fire from left and right. drawn up by the fbi in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, it contains 700,000 names, according to one estimate, and has mistakenly included infants, us military veterans and politicians, including edward kennedy and john lewis. analysts describe it as an unfocused and unwieldy blunt instrument. this is one reason why a congress that blocked gun control measures after the shooting of 20 schoolchildren in newtown, connecticut, seems unlikely to shift gear now. josh earnest, the white house press secretary, admitted: <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t know whether this profound tragedy will have more of an impact on the minds of members of congress. hopefully it will.<u+201d> but senator ron johnson, a wisconsin republican and chairman of the senate committee on homeland security and governmental affairs, disagreed that stricter gun laws were the solution. <u+201c>i think there<u+2019>s other root causes in play,<u+201d> he told the associated press. <u+201c>i think mental health is a huge issue.<u+201d> these are the tangibles, more readily quantified. what the white house and congress should do to promote harmony with both the muslim and lgbt communities is a more textured long-term challenge, where tone is crucial. with characteristic bombast, trump charged straight in on monday. <u+201c>when i am elected, i will suspend immigration from areas of the world when there is a proven history of terrorism against the united states, europe or our allies, until we understand how to end these threats,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>we cannot continue to allow thousands upon thousands of people to pour into our country, many of whom have the same thought process as this savage killer.<u+201d> he added: <u+201c>the muslim community<u+2019>s so important. they have to work with us <u+2026> and turn in the people who are bad.<u+201d> at clinton<u+2019>s rally, the tone was very different. <u+201c>we should avoid eroding trust in that community <u+2026> inflammatory anti-muslim rhetoric and threatening to ban the family and friends of muslim americans, and millions of muslim business people, hurts the vast majority of muslims, who love freedom and hate terror.<u+201d> it is no coincidence, she added, that hate crimes against american muslims and mosques have tripled since the paris and san bernardino attacks. she called on local leaders, teachers and communities to develop education to recognize signs of radicalisation. and in contrast to trump<u+2019>s proposed ban on individuals, she instead took aim at foreign governments, implying she would take a tougher stand than obama. <u+201c>it is long past time for saudis, qataris, kuwaitis and others to stop their citizens from funding extremist organisations.<u+201d> the orlando attack has also focused attention on hate crimes against gay men and lesbians in america. the obama administration has overseen great strides, including the legalisation of gay marriage, but, activists note, this can conceal ongoing hostility and prejudice in many communities. the recent political debate over transgender bathroom use is seen as one example that contributes to a hostile climate. it was reported on monday that members of congress plan to ask the white house to end a decades-old policy that prohibits many gay men from donating blood. senators including elizabeth warren have long criticised the rule as discriminatory. using the alternative term isil, obama acknowledged the targeting of lgbt people by islamic state but gave little hint of new concrete measures. <u+201c>regardless of the particular motivations of this killer, there are connections between this vicious, bankrupt ideology and general attitudes towards gays and lesbians. and unfortunately, that<u+2019>s something that the lgbt community is subject to not just by isil but by a lot of groups that purport to speak on behalf of god around the world.<u+201d> trump, meanwhile, set himself up as an unlikely champion of the lgbt community. <u+201c>ask yourself: who is really the friend of women and the lbgt [sic] community <u+2013> donald trump, with his actions, or hillary clinton, with her words? clinton wants to allow radical islamic terrorists to pour into our country <u+2013> they enslave women, and murder gays. i don<u+2019>t want them in our country.<u+201d> but trump<u+2019>s remarks met with scepticism from gay rights activists, who argue that he has vowed to appoint supreme court justices who would roll back nationwide marriage equality. jay brown, communications director of the human rights campaign, said: <u+201c>let<u+2019>s be clear: lgbtq people are muslims. <u+201c>and make no mistake, donald trump is no friend of the lgbtq community. donald trump has vowed to roll back marriage equality, pass kim davis-style discrimination and allow governors from coast to coast to pass laws like north carolina<u+2019>s hb2. trump<u+2019>s rhetoric today isn<u+2019>t fooling anyone and what he is peddling isn<u+2019>t protection. it<u+2019>s poison.<u+201d>

guns, terror, and lgbt rights: orlando shooting raises stakes for next president

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the maryland democrat made the announcement monday morning in her hometown of baltimore. mikulski, 78, is known as the "dean" of the senate women -- helping forge bipartisan relationships for decades that often result in compromise. until democrats lost control of the senate, she was the chairman of the powerful senate appropriations committee. "i had to ask myself this question: am i campaigning for me, or am i campaigning for my constituents?" she said monday. "am i raising money or raising hell?" president barack obama praised mikulski as "legendary" and called her "an institution in the united states senate" in a statement monday that followed her announcement. "barbara's service to the people of maryland spans decades, but her legacy will span generations," obama said. "barbara is the longest serving woman in congress, and her leadership serves as an inspiration to millions of women and girls across the globe to stand up and lead." her retirement could present an opening for former maryland gov. martin o'malley, who left office weeks ago and has been considering a 2016 bid for the democratic presidential nomination -- though he could struggle to make waves in that race if, as expected, hillary clinton runs. it's not clear whether o'malley would be interested in a legislative seat. but his mother has long served as mikulski's receptionist in her washington office. and o'malley tweeted his praise for mikulski on monday. i got my start in maryland politics on @senatorbarb's '86 campaign. very grateful for her service to our state as well as her mentorship. <u+2014> martin o'malley (@governoromalley) march 2, 2015 the state is also represented by seven democratic house members -- including rep. chris van hollen, a member of the party's congressional leadership -- and they could all scramble for the seat, too. o'malley's former lieutenant governor, anthony brown, is another contender. also on the list of potential democratic candidates are baltimore mayor stephanie rawlings-blake and labor secretary tom perez.

barbara mikulski , the longest serving female senator in history, to retire

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top dems want white house to call off part b demo <u+2014> the next cancer drug shortage

gowdy and cummings duke it out over benghazi

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a new conservative watchdog group filed a complaint this week with the federal election commission against the private voter data firm catalist and dozens of democratic party and candidate committees, accusing them of operating <u+201c>an illegal coordination scheme<u+201d> that has allowed democrats to instantly sync their voter information with that of independent groups. the washington-based foundation for accountability and civic trust<u+00a0> also alleged that catalist -- whose president is harold ickes, a longtime democratic strategist and ally of bill and hillary clinton -- provides its data to candidates and parties below market rate, effectively making illegal in-kind contributions. fact<u+2019>s executive director, matthew g. whitaker, said catalist and its democratic allies <u+201c>have operated outside of the law<u+201d> and called on the fec to investigate. <u+201c>i expect that they will take this seriously and get some answers,<u+201d> said whitaker, a former u.s. attorney in iowa who ran for the u.s. senate there last year as a republican. amy weiss, a spokeswoman for catalist, said in a statement that the complaint was <u+201c>a politically-motivated filing without merit.<u+201d> it is common for parties and outside organizations<u+00a0>to exchange voter lists. but democratic party committees and allied interest groups do not conduct such exchanges close to an election, according to people familiar with the transactions. that<u+2019>s because conveying non-public material related to a campaign<u+2019>s activities through a common vendor could violate coordination rules. in its complaint, fact challenged that notion, citing passages in sasha issenberg's 2012 book "the victory lab" that described how catalist enabled "seamless links" between president obama's 2008 campaign and activist groups on the left. the allegations against catalist comes four months after a democratic-allied watchdog group filed a similar complaint against a host of groups on the right, including the republican national committee, the super pac american crossroads, the private firm data trust and i360, a data management firm that works closely with advocacy groups backed by billionaires charles and david koch and other conservative donors. american democracy legal fund, a group helmed by veteran operative brad woodhouse, charged that the rnc and outside groups were illegally coordinating by exchanging information about individual voters in real time through data trust. the rnc called the complaint baseless. whitaker said he was not concerned that fact<u+2019>s arguments against catalist could be used against the rnc and its allies, noting that the group was nonpartisan. <u+201c>this type of behavior shouldn<u+2019>t be allowed on either side,<u+201d> he said. fact was organized over the last several months as a response to watchdogs groups on the left such as american democracy legal fund and citizens for ethics and responsibility in washington. the group is backed by $1 million in seed money from donors who support conservative legal causes, according to people familiar with its origins. whitaker declined to identify the organization<u+2019>s contributors, calling them <u+201c>some freedom-loving americans<u+201d> who live outside of washington.

conservative watchdog group accuses democrats of illegally coordinating through voter data firm

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news about race in america these days is almost universally negative. longstanding wealth, income and employment gaps between whites and people of color are increasing, and tensions between police and minority communities around the country are on the rise. but many claim there<u+2019>s a glimmer of hope: the next generation of americans, they say, is <u+201c>post-racial<u+201d><u+2014>more tolerant, and therefore more capable of easing these race-based inequities. unfortunately, closer examination of the data suggests that millennials aren<u+2019>t racially tolerant, they<u+2019>re racially apathetic: they simply ignore structural racism rather than try to fix it. in 2010, a pew research report trumpeted that <u+201c>the younger generation is more racially tolerant than their elders.<u+201d> in the chicago tribune, ted gregory seized on this to declare millennials <u+201c>the most tolerant generation in history.<u+201d> these types of arguments typically cling to the fact that young people are more likely than their elders to favor interracial marriage. but while millennials are indeed less likely than baby boomers to say that more people of different races marrying each other is a change for the worse (6 percent compared to 14 percent), their opinions on that score are basically no different than those of the generation immediately before them, the gen xers, who come in at 5 percent. on interracial dating, the trend is similar, with 92 percent of gen xers saying it<u+2019>s <u+201c>all right for blacks and whites to date each other,<u+201d> compared to 93 percent of millennials. furthermore, these questions don<u+2019>t really say anything about racial justice: after all, interracial dating and marriage are unlikely to solve deep disparities in criminal justice, wealth, upward mobility, poverty and education<u+2014>at least not in this century. (black-white marriages currently make up just 2.2 percent of all marriages.) and when it comes to opinions on more structural issues, such as the role of government in solving social and economic inequality and the need for continued progress, millennials start to split along racial lines. when people are asked, for example, <u+201c>how much needs to be done in order to achieve martin luther king<u+2019>s dream of racial equality?<u+201d> the gap between white millennials and millennials of color (all those who don<u+2019>t identify as white) are wide. and once again, millennials are shown to be no more progressive than older generations: among millennials, 42 percent of whites answer that <u+201c>a lot<u+201d> must be done to achieve racial equality, compared to 41 percent of white gen xers and 44 percent of white boomers. the most significant change has been among nonwhite millennials, who are more racially optimistic than their parents. (fifty-four percent of nonwhite millennials say <u+201c>a lot<u+201d> must be done, compared with 60 percent of nonwhite gen xers.) and this racial optimism isn<u+2019>t exactly warranted. the racial wealth gap has increased since the 2007 financial crisis, and blacks who graduate from college have less wealth than whites who haven<u+2019>t completed high school. a new paper by poverty experts thomas hirschl and mark rank estimates that whites are 6.74 times more likely to enter the top 1 percent of the income distribution ladder than nonwhites. and bhashkar mazumder finds that 60 percent of blacks whose parents were in the top half of income distribution end up in the bottom, compared with 36 percent of whites. as to how well whites and nonwhites get along, only 13 percent of white millennials say <u+201c>not well at all,<u+201d> compared with 31 percent of nonwhite millennials. (thirteen percent of white gen xers and 32 percent of nonwhite gen xers agree.) in a 2009 study using american national election studies<u+2014>a survey of americans before and after each presidential election<u+2014>vincent hutchings finds, <u+201c>younger cohorts of whites are no more racially liberal in 2008 than they were in 1988.<u+201d> my own analysis of the most recent data reveals a similar pattern: gaps between young whites and old whites on support for programs that aim to further racial equality are very small compared to the gaps between young whites and young blacks. and even though the gaps within the millennial generation are wide, as with the pew data, there is also evidence that young blacks are more racially conservative than their parents, as they are less likely to support government aid to blacks. spencer piston, professor at the campbell institute at syracuse university, used anes data and found a similar pattern on issues relating to economic inequality. he examined a tax on millionaires, affirmative action, a limit to campaign contributions and a battery of questions that measure egalitarianism. he says, <u+201c>the racial divide (in particular the black/white divide) dwarfs other divides in policy opinion. age differences in public opinion are small in comparison to racial differences.<u+201d> this finding is, he adds, <u+201c>consistent with a long-standing finding in political science.<u+201d> piston finds that young whites have the same level of racial stereotypes as their parents.

millennials are more racist than they think

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republican presidential candidate donald trump on sunday defended his criticism that hillary clinton<u+2019>s campaign success is based largely on her being a female candidate and dismissed assertions about him having a soft foreign policy. <u+201c>the only card she has is the woman card,<u+201d> trump told <u+201c>fox news sunday.<u+201d> <u+201c>even women don<u+2019>t like her. if she were not a woman, she would not even be in this race.<u+201d> the billionaire businessman resumed his clinton attack following his sweep in five northeast primary contests, saying tuesday that <u+201c>the only card she has is the woman's card. and frankly, if hillary clinton were a man, i don't think she'd get 5 percent of the vote.<u+201d> the front-running trump also dismissed criticism that he sounded like a liberal democrat in his foreign policy speech last week by suggesting the united states scale back in the middle east and focus on domestic spending. <u+201c>we need to knock off isis and get out of there,<u+201d> said trump, who nevertheless continues to argue that overthrowing dictators has been a failed foreign policy strategy that has led to instability in the middle east. <u+201c>every move we've made in the middle east has been wrong,<u+201d> he said, arguing other countries should pay more to protect the world and that more taxpayer money must go to u.s. infrastructure.<u+201d> <u+201c>we can<u+2019>t have this anymore,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>we are spending all of our money in the middle east. we need to strengthen our military and pull back <u+2026> in the meantime our country is becoming third world.<u+00a0><u+2026> i will be tougher than<u+201d> clinton. gop primary rival texas sen. ted cruz told abc<u+2019>s <u+201c>this week<u+201d> that trump's policy speech <u+201c>reflects a weak and naive approach to foreign policy.<u+201d> trump also argued that his attacks on clinton are no worse than those of her primary challenger, vermont sen. bernie sanders, who has questioned the former secretary of state<u+2019>s qualifications. while both clinton and trump<u+2019>s favorability ratings among women are low, trump<u+2019>s are worse, especially among female general election voters. however, trump argued sunday that his numbers will improve if and when he faces clinton in the general election. <u+201c>once i start on hillary, the numbers will change,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>watch what happens with hillary. watch what happens with her numbers.<u+201d>

trump replays clinton 'woman card,' defends 'pull out' middle east strategy

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on this day in 1973, j. fred buzhardt, a lawyer defending president richard nixon in the watergate case, revealed that a key white house tape had an 18...

insiders: clinton still on track to win iowa and n.h.

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nine in 10 native americans say they are not offended by the washington redskins name, according to a new washington post poll that shows how few ordinary indians have been persuaded by a national movement to change the football team<u+2019>s moniker. the survey of 504 people across every state and the district reveals that the minds of native americans have remained unchanged since a 2004 poll by the annenberg public policy center found the same result. responses to the post<u+2019>s questions about the issue were broadly consistent regardless of age, income, education, political party or proximity to reservations. [12 native americans talk about the furor over the redskins name] among the native americans reached over a five-month period ending in april, more than 7 in 10 said they did not feel the word <u+201c>redskin<u+201d> was disrespectful to indians. an even higher number <u+2014> 8 in 10 <u+2014> said they would not be offended if a non-native called them that name. the results <u+2014> immediately celebrated by team owner daniel snyder and denounced by prominent native american leaders <u+2014> could make it that much harder for anti-name activists to pressure redskins officials, who are already using the poll as further justification to retain the moniker. beyond that, the findings might impact the ongoing legal battle over the team<u+2019>s federal trademark registrations and the eventual destination of the next stadium. the name controversy has clouded talks between the team and the district, widely considered snyder<u+2019>s desired destination. [native americans<u+2019> indifference on redskins name could reset d.c. stadium talks] <u+201c>the washington redskins team, our fans and community have always believed our name represents honor, respect and pride,<u+201d> the owner said in a statement. <u+201c>today<u+2019>s washington post polling shows native americans agree. we are gratified by this overwhelming support from the native american community, and the team will proudly carry the redskins name.<u+201d> but suzan harjo, the lead plaintiff in the first case challenging the team<u+2019>s trademark protections, dismissed the post<u+2019>s findings. <u+201c>i just reject the results,<u+201d> said harjo, 70, who belongs to the cheyenne and hodulgee muscogee tribes. <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t agree with them, and i don<u+2019>t agree that this is a valid way of surveying public opinion in indian country.<u+201d> two other key leaders in the name-change movement did not challenge the validity of the poll, and instead issued a joint statement calling the responses from indians <u+201c>encouraging.<u+201d> <u+201c>native americans are resilient and have not allowed the nfl<u+2019>s decades-long denigration of us to define our own self-image,<u+201d> wrote oneida nation representative ray halbritter and national congress of american indians executive director jacqueline pata. <u+201c>however, that proud resilience does not give the nfl a license to continue marketing, promoting, and profiting off of a dictionary-defined racial slur <u+2014> one that tells people outside of our community to view us as mascots.<u+201d> [how the post conducted the survey on the redskins name] since the nearly half-century-old debate regained national attention in 2013, opponents of the name have won a string of high-profile victories, garnering support from president obama, 50 democratic u.s. senators, dozens of sports broadcasters and columnists, several newspaper editorial boards (including the post<u+2019>s), a civil rights organization that works closely with the national football league and tribal leaders throughout indian country. in response, snyder vowed never to change the moniker and used the 12-year-old annenberg poll to defend his position. activists, however, have argued that the billionaire must act if even a small minority of indians are insulted by the term. they have also maintained that opinions have evolved as his unyielding stance has been subjected to a barrage of condemnation by critics ranging from <u+201c>south park<u+201d> to the united church of christ. but for more than a decade, no one has measured what the country<u+2019>s 5.4<u+00a0>million native americans think about the controversy. their responses to the post poll were unambiguous: few objected to the name, and some voiced admiration. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m proud of being native american and of the redskins,<u+201d> said barbara bruce, a chippewa teacher who has lived on a north dakota reservation most of her life. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m not ashamed of that at all. i like that name.<u+201d> bruce, 70, has for four decades taught her community<u+2019>s schoolchildren, dozens of whom have gone on to play for the turtle mountain community high school braves. she and many others surveyed embrace native imagery in sports because it offers them some measure of attention in a society where they are seldom represented. just 8<u+00a0>percent of those canvassed say such depictions bother them. [a brief history of the word <u+2018>redskin<u+2019> and how it became controversial] even as the name-change movement gained momentum among influential people, the post<u+2019>s survey and more than two dozen subsequent interviews make clear that the effort failed to have anywhere near the same impact on indians. across every demographic group, the vast majority of native americans say the team<u+2019>s name does not offend them, including 80<u+00a0>percent who identify as politically liberal, 85<u+00a0>percent of college graduates, 90<u+00a0>percent of those enrolled in a tribe, 90<u+00a0>percent of non-football fans and 91<u+00a0>percent of those between the ages of 18 and 39. even 9 in 10 of those who have heard a great deal about the controversy say they are not bothered by the name. what makes those attitudes more striking: the general public appears to object more strongly to the name than indians do. in a 2014 national espn poll, 23<u+00a0>percent of those reached called for <u+201c>redskins<u+201d> to be retired because of its offensiveness to native americans <u+2014> more than double the 9<u+00a0>percent of actual native americans who now say they are offended by it. a 2013 post poll found that a higher proportion of washington-area residents <u+2014> 28<u+00a0>percent <u+2014> wanted the moniker changed. [column: in complex redskins name debate, poll should give both sides pause] halbritter, a key figure and financier in the fight against snyder, has described the issue as one of the most important facing his people. <u+201c>it is critical,<u+201d> he wrote in a 2013 post op-ed. <u+201c>indeed, precisely because it is so critical, this campaign is not going away, no matter how much the nfl or snyder wants it to.<u+201d> but an overwhelming majority of native americans disagree, with just 1 in 10 saying they consider the issue <u+201c>very important.<u+201d> <u+201c>i really don<u+2019>t mind it. i like it. .<u+2009>.<u+2009>. we call other natives <u+2018>skins,<u+2019> too,<u+201d> said gabriel nez, a 29-year-old navajo who left his reservation last year to study criminal justice at a college in new mexico. <u+201c>the name is nothing to me,<u+201d> said jarvis michael horn, a 39-year-old member of the winnebago tribe who works at a corner grocery store in iowa. <u+201c>for me, it doesn<u+2019>t make any difference,<u+201d> said charles moore, a 73-year-old oneida of wisconsin who as a physician treated patients for four decades before retiring in minnesota. the poll, which has a 5.5 percentage-point margin of sampling error, was conducted by randomly calling cellular and landline phones. it asked questions only of people who identified themselves as native american, after being asked about their ethnicity or heritage. those interviewed highlighted again and again other challenges to their communities that they consider much more urgent than an nfl team<u+2019>s name: substandard schools, substance abuse, unemployment. <u+201c>let<u+2019>s start taking care of our people and quit worrying about names like washington redskins,<u+201d> said randy whitworth, 58, who lives on the flathead indian reservation in montana. but harjo questioned the validity of the poll results and said they do not reflect what she has seen during her decades of involvement with the issue. <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t accept self-identification. people say they<u+2019>re native, and they are not native, for all sorts of reasons,<u+201d> she said. <u+201c>those of us who are leaders in indian country... know who we are representing. we also know if we are representing a minority view. and this is not the case here. our experience is completely the opposite of the annenberg poll and this one. i just reject the whole thing.<u+201d> others, including senate minority leader harry m. reid (d-nev.), rep. betty mccollum (d-minn.) and veteran nbc broadcaster bob costas, said the post<u+2019>s findings would not alter their view that the name is offensive. it remains uncertain how the poll will affect either the stadium discussion or the trademark case. although the redskins have a lease at fedex field in landover, md., until 2027, team officials have acknowledged that they hope to relocate well before then. maryland gov. larry hogan (r), virginia gov. terry mcauliffe (d) and washington mayor muriel e. bowser (d) have all expressed interest in making a deal with the team. hogan has defended the moniker, while mcauliffe has avoided criticizing it. bowser and some d.c. council members have publicly condemned it as <u+201c>racist and derogatory.<u+201d> on thursday, a spokesman for the mayor told the post that <u+201c>the concern about the team name is well documented and far reaching <u+2014> from the oval office to the halls of congress to the d.c. council chambers.<u+201d> but news that such a large percentage of native americans do not care about the name could provide the necessary political cover for district leaders to welcome snyder<u+2019>s club to return to the site of rfk stadium, where the redskins used to play. the federal government, however, would also have to approve because rfk stands on national park service land controlled by the interior department. the current secretary, sally jewell, has echoed obama<u+2019>s opposition to the name. attorneys for the redskins and native american activists declined on thursday to discuss the poll<u+2019>s potential impact on the trademark case. some experts say the survey<u+2019>s results could help the team, but others argue that the data cannot be admitted as evidence because the case is no longer at the trial level. lower courts have said that indians<u+2019> opinions on the term matters only between 1967 and 1990, when the team<u+2019>s trademarks were registered. two years ago, the u.s. patent and trademark office<u+2019>s appeal board ruled that <u+201c>redskins<u+201d> offended a substantial number of native americans at the relevant time, violating the lanham act, which bars potentially disparaging names from trademark protection. a federal district judge upheld the order last summer. now, the redskins have petitioned the supreme court to weigh in, arguing that, regardless of whether the name offends native americans, the lanham act violates the team<u+2019>s free-speech rights. amid the legal maneuvering and name-change push, some indians interviewed by the post voiced resentment toward the activists. a small percentage of their community had, in their minds, spoken for the majority. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s 100 people okay with the situation, and one person has a problem with it, and all of a sudden everyone has to conform,<u+201d> said new york resident judy ann joyner, 64, a retired nurse whose grandmother was part-shawnee and part-wyandot. <u+201c>you<u+2019>ll find people who don<u+2019>t like puppies and kittens and santa claus. it doesn<u+2019>t mean we<u+2019>re going to wipe them off the face of the earth.<u+201d> but an important question remains: is it appropriate for the name of a professional sports team to insult any percentage of a population that has historically been so mistreated by this country<u+2019>s majority? tara houska, a tribal attorney who lives in the district and has organized protests against the name, argued that neither a majority opinion nor a fan<u+2019>s passion should matter if the imagery hurts the psyches of young natives <u+2014> and research shows that it does. <u+201c>a tomahawk chop and a bunch of people wearing redface does not honor me in any sense of the word, and it certainly does not honor native american children,<u+201d> said houska, a member of the couchiching first nation. <u+201c>to me, it doesn<u+2019>t matter if my feelings are hurt. yes, it is offensive, and i don<u+2019>t like seeing it everywhere. but what really matters is how this affects our youth.<u+201d> nowhere are the nuances of this complex debate more apparent than in a mobile home amid the mountains, rivers and forests on montana<u+2019>s flathead indian reservation, where rusty whitworth lives with his wife, anita. whitworth is a member of the confederated salish and kootenai tribes. a laborer who has worked on ranches most of his life, he said he does not mind the name. <u+201c>just let them keep it,<u+201d> he said of the team. <u+201c>it ain<u+2019>t hurting nobody.<u+201d> anita whitworth, 62, also belongs to the confederation. a mother of five who worked for years as a chemical-dependency counselor, she hates the name. she views it much the same way that many activists do. they argue that the central problems ravaging native communities <u+2014> poverty, violence and addiction <u+2014> can only be fixed if young people take pride in who they are. her youngest, whitworth said, is a dark-skinned 13-year-old who attends an almost entirely non-native school in a region long plagued by racial tension. when she looks at him, whitworth thinks back to the years of disparagement she<u+2019>s endured. she has seen store employees follow her because they suspect she will steal something. she has heard derogatory comments in restaurants. she has also been called a <u+201c>redskin.<u+201d> <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t want to ever have my son experience anything like that,<u+201d> she said. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s time to change. it<u+2019>s time to move on.<u+201d> ian shapira, emily guskin, jonathan o<u+2019>connell, aaron c. davis and jennifer jenkins contributed to this report.

new poll finds 9 in 10 native americans aren<u+2019>t offended by redskins name

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the salespeople at ideal health were thrilled when they heard donald trump would become the new face of their company. the new york real estate mogul, whose reality show <u+201c>the apprentice<u+201d> made him famous, licensed his name to the firm, which was then rebranded as the trump network in 2009. <u+201c>oh, my god, people cried when they heard it was him,<u+201d> says jenna knudsen, who worked as a high-ranking saleswoman for ideal health at the time. <u+201c>they cried and looked at each other and said, <u+2018>we<u+2019>re going to be millionaires!<u+2019> <u+201d> knudsen and her colleagues sold customized vitamins and other health products as part of a controversial business model known as multilevel marketing, in which companies pay salespeople commissions for selling products and recruiting more representatives. trump, whose presidential campaign is based in part on his reputation as a businessman, is well known for licensing his name to golf courses, hotels, clothing, wine and many other products. but in this case, he became involved in an industry that consumer advocates had long criticized as promising financial independence to sales recruits but rarely delivering it. ideal health had already faced complaints about its practices. trump says he was not involved in the company<u+2019>s operations. but statements by him and other company representatives <u+2014> as well as a plethora of marketing materials circulating online <u+2014> often gave the impression of a partnership that was certain to lift thousands of people into prosperity. in fact, within a few years, the company fell on hard times, leaving some salespeople in tough financial straits. it ultimately was acquired by another firm. but when trump joined forces with ideal health, he was enthusiastic about its future. <u+201c>when i did <u+2018>the apprentice,<u+2019> it was a long shot. this is not a long shot,<u+201d> trump told a trump network convention of at least 5,000 people in miami in 2009, his face projected onto a giant screen. <u+201c>this is going to be something that<u+2019>s really amazing.<u+201d> <u+201c>it<u+2019>s going to be our company as a group,<u+201d> he added. sales people<u+00a0>affiliated with the newly branded company also highlighted the relationship. <u+201c>we<u+2019>re working on projects behind the scenes every single day with mr. trump,<u+201d> kim stone, who was one of the highest-level sales representatives<u+00a0>in the company, says in a video<u+00a0>that was posted online<u+00a0>in early 2010. <u+201c>literally you will be able to set yourself up for the rest of your life, financially speaking, if you take advantage of the timing right now with this company.<u+201d> in an interview,<u+00a0>stone said many salespeople believed trump would be more involved. <u+201c>initially when the owners said we<u+2019>re all becoming trump network, they kind of led the field to believe he was financially a part of it,<u+201d> she said. <u+201c>and technically it was just this branding deal.<u+201d> trump attorney<u+00a0>alan garten said in a statement that trump has always been transparent about his relationship with the network. some materials, such as the company<u+2019>s website, did contain fine-print disclosures. <u+201c>his role in the trump network was limited to licensing the <u+2018>trump<u+2019> brand and providing motivational speeches to its members. mr. trump was never an owner of the trump network. he also was not involved in the manufacturing or sale of any of the trump network<u+2019>s products,<u+201d> garten<u+00a0>said. <u+201c>to be clear, mr. trump<u+2019>s role in the trump network was clearly disclosed, to everyone involved in the company and its members, whether it be in the member<u+2019>s independent contractor agreements, the marketing materials, or on the products themselves.<u+201d> interviews with nine former salespeople<u+00a0>and<u+00a0>industry and academic experts <u+2014> as well as court filings, federal trade commission complaints and trump network documents and videos that remain online today <u+2014> tell the story of trump leveraging his name and reputation, only to leave some disappointed when imagined benefits did not materialize. trump network is not the first trump-affiliated company to receive scrutiny. another of trump<u+2019>s branding arrangements has become a topic in the campaign: trump university, which has been sued, along with trump, for promising to teach people unique ways to make money in real estate -- a program that would cost<u+00a0>thousands of dollars -- without actually delivering any effective lessons.<u+00a0>students also say they were misled about the extent of trump<u+2019>s involvement. trump has rejected the allegations. some of trump network<u+2019>s sales<u+00a0>representatives<u+00a0>who suffered after the company ran into trouble say the lack of commitment by trump and the trump network<u+2019>s owners let them down. knudsen <u+2014> who had reached one of the company<u+2019>s top sales ranks, had thousands of people working under her and at one point was earning thousands of dollars a month <u+2014> ended up losing her house. her car, purchased as part of the company<u+2019>s rewards program, was repossessed in the middle of the night. she said she was a single mother with no alimony and no child support, and her kids were traumatized. <u+201c>they changed us to the trump network, so we thought we were his company, he was invested in us. but we were just an endorsement. we were just paying to rent his name,<u+201d> knudsen said. <u+201c>was trump to blame? we don<u+2019>t know, but he certainly did not do what he said. he did not support us, he did not make this company his baby company. and somewhere between [the owners] and donald trump, they devastated thousands of people. and no one ever apologized.<u+201d> the road to the trump network when he set his sights on ideal health in the late 2000s, trump did not hint at any qualms about the industry. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m a big fan of network marketing,<u+201d> trump said at the miami convention in 2009, which featured circus performers on stilts and a massive dance party. ideal health was started in 1997 by scott stanwood, his brother todd and lou decaprio, who had worked together in the multilevel marketing business. ideal health<u+2019>s flagship product <u+2014> later the trump network<u+2019>s <u+2014> was a multivitamin, tailored for customers based on a urine test. it cost $139.95, plus $69.95 a month for the vitamins, plus $99.95 for additional testing<u+00a0>every six months. former salespeople<u+00a0>praised the product, saying it helped customers live healthier lives. but some experts say it was of questionable value. <u+201c>there<u+2019>s very little evidence to suggest that this test is going to provide you with clinically meaningful information, or that the supplements they provide are going to make you healthy,<u+201d> said timothy caulfield, a public health professor at the university of alberta and longtime analyst of alternative medicine. but most of the controversy surrounding ideal health, and later the trump network, stems from how these companies rewarded and recruited sales representatives. although<u+00a0>many multilevel marketing companies are legal, the ftc has called some thinly disguised pyramid schemes. scott stanwood said he couldn<u+2019>t comment because of<u+00a0>confidentiality agreements with the trump organization. he said he was speaking on behalf of ideal health and the trump network<u+2019>s other owners. as is common with the model, trump network sales representatives<u+00a0>made money when they sold products, and when salespeople<u+00a0>working under them made purchases. they weren<u+2019>t employees, so they weren<u+2019>t guaranteed a salary. and because salespeople<u+00a0>paid upfront for products each month, they bore a lot of the risk. a trump network compensation plan shows that those in sales were promised big rewards for recruitment. a hypothetical example presented by the company showed that salespeople<u+00a0>could build <u+201c>levels<u+201d> of salespeople<u+00a0>under them and would earn commissions of $100, $25 or $20 each time a new recruit bought a business starter kit for $497. <u+201c>extraordinary growth on level 7,<u+201d> the plan says, <u+201c>2,187 people x $20 = a lot of money.<u+201d> in one complaint to the ftc, obtained through a<u+00a0>freedom of information act request by the washington post, one former sales<u+00a0>representative<u+00a0>recounted spending $1887.75 on starter kits and other materials. <u+201c>[t]hey kept tricking me into believing that i will make money just by selling more products and inviting more people, but the rate of return is so low,<u+201d> the consumer, who is not identified, wrote. <u+201c>in other words, they are scamming and deceiving people, making them believe that if they <u+2018>just hang in there<u+2019> they will make money.<u+201d> garten said<u+00a0>the trump network did not receive any complaints from the ftc.<u+00a0>katie baker, an attorney with the ftc, said that the ftc does not reach out to companies to resolve individual complaints, but merely analyzes and<u+00a0>compiles them. well before trump got involved, ideal health had faced similar questions about its business practices, according to documents made public by a 2004 freedom of information act request by the minneapolis law firm mansfield tanick & cohen. sales<u+00a0>representatives<u+00a0>said they paid thousands of dollars for leadership programs, infomercials, starter kits and other materials that they never recovered in sales. one consumer said they<u+00a0>joined the company expecting to make a five-figure monthly income, but<u+00a0>instead ended up spending $8,956.20 on promotional materials. another claimed they were encouraged to mortgage their home for $70,000 to buy shares in tv advertising. <u+201c>they try to use people[<u+2019>]s hopes and dreams to empty their wallets,<u+201d> reads one complaint. trump was not new to multilevel marketing. he already had been involved for several years with acn inc., a company that sells phone and other services. according to documents released earlier this year by his campaign, in<u+00a0>2014 and 2015 trump<u+00a0>received<u+00a0>$1.35 million in fees for three speaking engagements with acn. acn said that trump was a paid keynote speaker at several company events, as were many other industry and business experts, and that he was not involved in any other facet of the business. trump was introduced to ideal health in early 2008 through dean blechman, a former chief executive<u+00a0>of ideal health, and another associate, according to a<u+00a0>court document<u+00a0>from a subsequent separation lawsuit between blechman and ideal health. ideal health was <u+201c>under-capitalized,<u+201d> blechman said, and the company<u+00a0>was seeking a partnership to expand its recognition. so he and two other business contacts arranged a meeting with trump at his office in manhattan. blechman says trump liked the idea of promoting health, as well as creating jobs and income for people through direct marketing. <u+201c>i brought the company a hundreds-of-millions-of-dollar<u+00a0>revenue opportunity,<u+201d> blechman said. <u+201c>there was nobody in the world, nobody, not a single person in the world, that was more perfect than donald trump.<u+201d> at first, trump considered taking a stake in the company, according to the court document. trump<u+2019>s attorney<u+00a0>garten said the billionaire <u+201c>became involved with the trump network because he believed in the strength of the management team," but said only a licensing agreement was ever envisioned. ultimately, in march 2009, the parties settled on an agreement in which ideal health would license trump<u+2019>s likeness and trademarks, and trump would promote its products. trump<u+2019>s endorsement persuaded<u+00a0>some salespeople to quit their day jobs and recruit friends, family and neighbors to join, according to interviews and contemporary news stories. the network grew to more than 20,000 people, from 5,000 before his involvement, the boston globe reported in 2010. as many americans were confronting the aftermath of the financial crisis and the great recession, trump touted the network as a salvation. <u+201c>the economic meltdown, greed and ineptitude in the financial industry have<u+00a0>sabotaged the dreams of millions of people. americans need a new plan,<u+201d> he said in an introductory video. <u+201c>they need a new dream. the trump network wants to give millions of people renewed hope, and with an exciting plan to opt out of the recession.<u+201d> sara harper, a former trump network saleswoman in san diego, said the overall message she and her colleagues received made it easy to think that trump was a substantial part of the business. <u+201c>a picture was painted that he was involved at a level of business decision-making that i don<u+2019>t think he really was,<u+201d> she said. several salespeople said that following in trump<u+2019>s footsteps was a major attraction. people saw the trump network as an opportunity to be associated with <u+201c>the biggest business brand in the world,<u+201d> says lenny izzo, a chiropractor who was one of the trump network<u+2019>s top salespeople. <u+201c>with trump coming in, they hyped it up to make us believe, oh, it<u+2019>s not going to take us long now; we<u+2019>re going to make money so much faster,<u+201d> said yvonne zook, who was a mid-level sales representative. but over the next few years, according to several of the salespeople, far fewer people started showing up at the annual conferences. and by late 2011, some suddenly stopped receiving their payments and began<u+00a0>to leave the company. garten said many people enjoyed financial success with the network. "but, like with any business venture, you get what you put into it,<u+201d> he said. he<u+00a0>added that any problems at the trump network that came up "were solely the result of the financial crisis." others, though, suggest alternative<u+00a0>reasons for why the company struggled, including mismanagement and profligacy by the owners, such as spending on a<u+00a0>new office and flashy promotional events, and an awkward fit between the trump brand<u+00a0>and a<u+00a0>health and wellness product. some sales representatives<u+00a0>don<u+2019>t criticize trump for the business<u+2019>s struggles, saying he did his best in a limited relationship. <u+201c>he did exactly what he was asked to do. and i think that<u+2019>s why people were excited, because they thought that this could be the turnaround for the company, because they felt that he had the business sense,<u+201d> said carolyn connolly, a top saleswoman. according to public records, the trump network<u+2019>s owners, todd and scott stanwood and lou decaprio, filed for bankruptcy. the trio lost the 8,000-square-foot home with an infinity pool where they lived together north of boston. around<u+00a0>the end of 2011, trump<u+2019>s licensing contract ended, and in early 2012 the business was sold to another company, bioceutica, for an undisclosed sum. trump<u+2019>s attorney<u+00a0>says those in sales who signed on with<u+00a0>bioceutica received outstanding payments. bioceutica declined to comment. izzo says that trump could have saved the company <u+201c>if he had stepped in <u+2026> but he didn<u+2019>t have good reason to do that.<u+201d> izzo, who also went bankrupt, added:<u+00a0>"could he have approached this differently? absolutely. could he have taken less fees, could he have stepped in and guided the company differently? he could have, but that wasn<u+2019>t the choice.<u+201d> the myth and the reality of donald trump<u+2019>s business empire donald trump<u+2019>s first cabinet pick is just as controversial as he is, and a lot richer

the trump network sought to make people rich, but left behind disappointment

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top dems want white house to call off part b demo <u+2014> the next cancer drug shortage

house gop leaders desperate to avoid shutdown

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december's job growth numbers are in, and they make it official: 2015 was the second-strongest year for job growth since the 1990s, and only slightly behind the big gains of 2014. unemployment fell in 2015 from an already low 5.6 percent at the end of 2014 to 5 percent in december 2015. wages grew 2.5 percent during 2015, which isn't a huge number but looks more impressive when you remember that inflation was close to zero for the year. so what accounts for the second straight year of strong economic results? the us economy is a complex system, so it would be a mistake to point to any single factor as driving economic growth and job creation. no one fully understands how and why economies grow. and to some extent, you could look at 2015's solid but not spectacular performance as the kind of thing that happens when there's nothing holding the economy back. but we can also identify several specific factors that positively influenced economic growth in 2015. short-term interest rates fell to zero percent in 2008, and the federal reserve kept them there until december 2015. lower interest rates tend to promote economic growth and job creation. some people believe the fed should have done even more <u+2014> earlier in the recession the fed ran a series of "quantitative easing" programs to pump even more money into the economy, which it phased out in 2014 <u+2014> but there's little doubt that the fed's decision to keep interest rates near zero percent for most of the year promoted faster job growth than an earlier interest rate hike would have done. in december, the federal reserve raised its target interest rate by 0.25 percent, and signaled that it may increase rates further in 2016. that may create a drag on the economy this year. oil prices were high <u+2014> around $100 per barrel from 2011 until mid-2014. but then prices started to fall, and they haven't stopped since. they were around $50 per barrel when 2015 began, and they've now fallen below $35 per barrel. energy is an important input to lots of different products and services, so cheaper oil (and other fossil fuels like natural gas) meant that everyone not associated with the oil industry had a bit of extra cash in their pockets in 2015. it's hard to say exactly where that extra cash went <u+2014> at least some of it went to boost people's savings and pay down debt <u+2014> but consumers also spent some of it on other stuff. that provided a nice economic tailwind throughout 2015. since the great recession, state and local governments have been tightening their belts. early in the recession, this added to the magnitude of job losses; later, it partially offset job gains in the private sector. but as this data from the brookings institution shows, things started to change in mid-2014. after years of shedding employees, state and local governments started hiring again. overall, brookings estimates that federal, state, and local government spending and tax policies exerted a modestly positive effect on the growth of gross domestic product <u+2014> that's after four years of spending cuts and tax hikes that brookings argues imposed a net fiscal drag on economic growth.

3 reasons the economy boomed in 2015

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just days after donald trump showed faint interest in building broad-based republican support and house speaker paul ryan seemed averse to his party<u+2019>s nominee-in-waiting, the two have met and now there<u+2019>s talk of gop <u+201c>unity.<u+201d> why this about face after a<u+00a0>couple of hours of face time in the nation<u+2019>s capital? because trump and ryan are numbers guys (one with real estate, the other with federal budgets). and these numbers stand out: 93, 32 and 5. in 2012, mitt romney reaped 93 percent of the gop vote. however, republicans constituted only 32 percent of the national electorate.<u+00a0>trump doesn<u+2019>t win in november without a better quantitative showing. and ryan could be back in the minority should trump lose by more than 5 percent in states with vulnerable republican congressman. simply put, it<u+2019>s in both trump's and ryan<u+2019>s short-term interests to be cordial at a minimum, even while maintaining serious policy differences that aren<u+2019>t going away anytime soon despite this first attempt a little d<u+00e9>tente (you<u+2019>ll know it<u+2019>s a bromance if the hard-exercising ryan agrees to a round of golf; or trump goes bow-hunting in wisconsin). despite the hoopla surrounding this meeting, it doesn<u+2019>t ensure republican <u+201c>peace in our time,<u+201d> as a failed british prime minister famously said. though trump has on occasion shown signs of a willingness to alter stances (most notably, the mass deportation of illegal immigrants), publicly acceding to a congressional agenda undermines trump<u+2019>s brand of anti-establishment and anti-status-quo thinking that warned him the party<u+2019>s nomination. just as ryan won<u+2019>t publicly give up on his conservative principles <u+2013> most notably: entitlement reform (which i<u+2019>d guess is the closed-door promise he<u+2019>s seeking from trump in exchange<u+00a0>for a public endorsement). then again, would you rather be donald trump, trying to strike a deal with a practical fellow like paul ryan, or hillary clinton trying to come to terms with an irascible 74-year-old socialist? the more primaries he wins, the more vermont sen. bernie sanders buys into the notion that he<u+2019>s on a mission. such self-deluded candidates don<u+2019>t retire from the field gracefully. good luck finding unity there. and good luck getting it<u+00a0><u+2014> without having to<u+00a0>further to socialist vision that work only in those<u+00a0>parts of america where whole foods and marijuana dispensaries are plentiful. w.c. fields had it wrong: i<u+2019>d rather not be in philadelphia, where the democrats will convene for their national convention and try to settle their differences.<u+00a0> bill whalen is a research fellow at stanford university's hoover institution, where he analyzes california and national politics. he also blogs daily on the 2016 election at www.adayattheracesblog.com. follow him on twitter @hooverwhalen.

donald trump, paul ryan and gop 'unity.' it's all about the numbers, america

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(cnn) the 2016 election is setting new lows for presidential transparency in the modern era. hillary clinton is under fire for waiting until she nearly collapsed at a public event sunday to disclose she was diagnosed friday with pneumonia. she hasn't provided a full accounting of her health, though donald trump has revealed far less. the republican nominee is departing with decades of tradition by not releasing his tax returns, which could provide key details about his investments and financial interests. and both candidates have declined traveling with a "protective pool" of reporters that follow them to provide continuous coverage of their activities. on monday night, transparency questions surfaced again as pbs interviewer charlie rose grilled former president bill clinton about his family's foundation. in other words, trump and clinton have less than two months to close the sale, but most voters aren't sure exactly what they're buying. few candidates relish throwing open their most intimate health and financial secrets. but the issue is particularly acute this year given trump's decades of business dealings. and, of course, trump, 70, and clinton, 68, would be the oldest and second oldest presidents inaugurated for a first term in a job that comes with intense physical and mental demands -- making their health a highly relevant issue. "it's just the kind of thing that if it happens to you and you're a busy active person, you keep moving forward," she said. "i think it's fair to say, anderson, that people know more about me than almost anyone in public life. they've got 40 years of my tax returns, tens of thousands of emails, a detailed medical letter report, all kinds of personal details." trump has said he will soon release details of a physical exam he underwent last week. in an interview monday with cnn's wolf blitzer on "the situation room," republican vice presidential nominee mike pence said both candidates should release detailed medical information. trump's campaign manager kellyanne conway fought back against the allegations tuesday that trump's campaign shared clinton's lack of transparency. "as far as i can see, there are two major party candidates running for president and only one of them has pneumonia and lied about it, especially to the press because she always treats you all like second class citizens," conway told cnn's alisyn camerota on "new day." 'people have a right to know' "people are vying for the highest office in the land," the indiana governor said. "people have a right to know." but when it comes to taxes, pence said trump wasn't violating any laws by withholding the data, though he acknowledged "there's a bit of a tradition here." trump has said he would release his returns once the internal revenue service completes an audit. when pressed why trump would not release topline information about previous returns now -- which would not interfere with the audit process -- pence told blitzer the republican nominee would release his returns "in totality" and "not parse them out piece by piece." still, the clinton campaign is already trying to use her weekend misfortune to increase pressure on trump. "we know more about hillary clinton in than any presidential candidate in history ... we know almost nothing about donald trump and he has got to come forward," clinton campaign manager robby mook told cnn's jake tapper. "i hope that there will be an even standard applied to getting them both to release sufficient information, not just on health but obviously we have the ongoing issue on taxes too," kaine said in ohio. politicians have long tried to shroud themselves in secrecy to varying degrees. "you have had candidates that have been a little close to the vest before -- many of them if not all of them having something they would rather not talk about," said bruce buchanan, a presidential historian at the university of texas at austin. but this year threatens to set unprecedented levels for the lack of disclosure, buchanan said, because the election matches up two candidates who have "reputations in that vein." presidential candidates have not always been under such a spotlight. after all, president franklin roosevelt took extensive -- and successful -- measures to hide his paralysis during his 1932 election campaign and subsequent presidency. president john kennedy, despite a conjuring a mythology of youth and vitality, was one of the most unhealthy presidents ever to hold the office -- but his multiple ailments were not common knowledge at the time. clinton's case appears to have little in common with those two democratic presidents -- and pneumonia is a fairly common complaint that should not impair her capacity to serve as president. but her wobbly exit from a ceremony sunday commemorating the 15th anniversary of the september 11 attack in new york created a sudden political storm for two reasons. first, the episode and video of clinton staggering into her van played into conservative conspiracy theories that she is hiding some kind of secret illness since sustaining a concussion while secretary of state and is not fit to serve -- a narrative without evidence that is often trumpeted by her opponent and his surrogates. then, the length of time it took for her campaign to say what is wrong -- with journalists in the dark about where she was -- fostered the idea that something was being covered up. "it's not health itself that is the problem she has to deal with," cnn senior political analyst david axelrod said on monday. "by allowing that six-hour gap they created this sense that they were trying to put one over on people and that is not helpful to her candidacy." the incident also played out as the clinton campaign has spent months rebutting arguments against the clinton foundation, which republicans have argued was a conduit for access to hillary clinton's state department. in the monday interview with rose, bill clinton insisted "we have been as transparent as we can be" when it comes to the foundation. "we've been more transparent than any other foundation -- more transparent than any other foundation has been asked to be, and certainly more transparent than anybody else in this line of work," he said. transparency is often uncomfortable for candidates. but at the same time, people who run for president are assuming the ultimate public trust -- the presidency of the united states, a position for which good health and a freedom from conflicts of financial interest are desirable if not essential. so any unwillingness to comply with what have become political norms for disclosure risks reflecting badly on a candidate's character. clinton's campaign promised to do better going forward <u+2014> and is planning to offer more details about her health later this week. in political terms, she now has little choice. "if they keep trying to hide and obfuscate her real condition, it is going to be a big albatross all the way to election day," said douglas brinkley, a historian at rice university on cnn's "at this hour with berman and bolduan." for her part, clinton's physician did issue a health statement last year certifying that she was fit to serve as president. trump has offered no such information. his only health disclosure was a note from his doctor saying his health was "astonishingly excellent" and that he would be the healthiest person ever elected president. neither candidate has approached the level of disclosure that another senior citizen candidate -- john mccain -- offered in 2008, when the cancer survivor invited select reporters to view over 1,000 pages of health records. even if trump offers more health details, he still risks setting an unprecedented example on financial disclosure for future candidates. the billionaire has steadfastly refused to match clinton -- and previous presidential nominees -- by releasing years of tax returns. 'nobody cares about it' "nobody cares about it except some of the folks in the media. nobody cares about it," trump said in a fox news interview earlier this month. trump has made his record in building a global business a pillar of his argument that he would be able to turn the economy around as president. yet he has refused to publish tax returns that would allow voters to make their own assessment of his financial health or claims about his income. such disclosures would also permit voters and reporters to view trump's charitable giving, which he has said has been substantial without providing evidence. trump did comply with election laws in may requiring candidates to release a financial statement, which claims a net worth of $10 billion and business interests all over the world. trump also lists 16 liabilities for which he owes at least $315 million, according to the statement. but the information does not offer details on the source of trump's annual income -- information that would more typically be available on a tax return. that's important for voters to size up whether trump would face conflicts of interest as president given his vast businesses interests around the globe. critics have suggested that trump could be compromised as president if he has heavy exposure to us adversaries like china and russia. it's also possible that trump's returns show he paid a very low tax rate if his income comes mainly from capital gains or can be written off against property investments -- a factor that could be politically embarrassing.

the no-transparency election

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tensions between the republican party and its own front-runner erupted into a full-blown public battle as top party officials rebuked donald trump on friday for alleging that the gop primary system was <u+201c>rigged<u+201d> against him. the dispute, which has been simmering for days, centers on trump<u+2019>s failure to win any delegates last weekend in colorado, which selected its 34 delegates at a party convention rather than a primary attended by voters. all went to trump<u+2019>s chief rival, sen. ted cruz of texas. the outcome prompted a daily stream of complaints and allegations this week from trump, who wrote in an op-ed published in friday<u+2019>s wall street journal that the <u+201c>system is being rigged by party operatives with <u+2018>double-agent<u+2019> delegates who reject the decisions of voters.<u+201d> a senior republican national committee official fired back with a thinly veiled response, writing in a friday memo to reporters that <u+201c>each process is easy to understand for those willing to learn it.<u+201d> <u+201c>it ultimately falls on the campaigns to be up to speed on these delegate rules,<u+201d> wrote rnc communications director sean spicer. <u+201c>campaigns have to know when absentee ballots are due, how long early voting lasts in certain states, or the deadlines for voter registration; the delegate rules are no different.<u+201d> the fight again pits trump against a republican establishment that is still broadly opposed to his candidacy and struggling to reconcile with the possibility that he could be the gop presidential nominee in november. veterans of past presidential campaigns warned that the feuding could have an adverse effect on down-ballot races and on the ability to defeat hillary clinton, seen as the likely democratic nominee, in the fall. <u+201c>traditionally, this is the time that the party and front-runner come together and make the plans necessary to defeat the democratic candidate in the fall,<u+201d> said michael steel, who was an aide for jeb bush<u+2019>s campaign and previously worked on the mitt romney campaign in 2012 and as spokesman for john a. boehner (r-ohio) when he was house speaker. <u+201c>that<u+2019>s clearly not happening, and it<u+2019>s going to make it tougher to beat secretary clinton.<u+201d> ron bonjean, a former top adviser to republican congressional leaders, called the trump-rnc showdown <u+201c>unprecedented<u+201d> and warned that <u+201c>taking a flamethrower to the republican party machine<u+201d> could backfire on trump. <u+201c>this is like a general severely criticizing his own special forces before ordering them to go into battle,<u+201d> he said in an email. <u+201c>trump runs the risk of demoralizing grass-roots party organizers when he is going to need every asset to help him beat the democratic nominee.<u+201d> one of the keys to trump<u+2019>s success until now has been his willingness to harshly criticize the party establishment, but he will need the support of the rnc in fundraising and get-out-the-vote efforts if he wins the nomination. this has left trump boomeranging between fighting the party and trying to embrace it. early this week, for example, trump used twitter and his rally speeches to call the nomination process <u+201c>corrupt,<u+201d> <u+201c>rigged<u+201d> and one that rewards candidates who <u+201c>play dirty tricks in order to pick up delegates.<u+201d> in an interview with the hill on tuesday, trump said rnc chairman reince priebus <u+201c>should be ashamed of himself because he knows what<u+2019>s going on.<u+201d> priebus responded on twitter: <u+201c>nomination process known for a year + beyond. it<u+2019>s the responsibility of the campaigns to understand it. complaints now? give us all a break.<u+201d> at the same time, behind the scenes, trump<u+2019>s campaign staff was finalizing plans to send representatives to the rnc<u+2019>s upcoming spring meeting in florida and to open an office in washington. on wednesday, the real estate mogul had lunch at trump tower in manhattan with megyn kelly of fox news, a longtime target of trump<u+2019>s who has come to symbolize his ongoing fight with the party establishment. later that day, trump announced he had hired gop strategist rick wiley, who has a long history at the rnc. by wednesday night in pittsburgh, where he held an evening rally, trump seemed to have softened his tone. but then around midnight he complained about colorado again in a series of tweets. <u+201c>the rules did change in colorado shortly after i entered the race in june because the pols and their bosses knew i would win with the voters,<u+201d> trump wrote at 11:53 p.m. steve house, chairman of the colorado republican party, said he has been angered by trump<u+2019>s assertion that colorado republicans changed their rules in an attempt to block his rise. state law bars them from holding a primary, so the party held caucuses at the local level and completed its delegate slate at a convention, he said. <u+201c>i can<u+2019>t believe people would think that donald got in the race and we changed them because of him,<u+201d> he said an interview. <u+201c>no, we voted not to change our rules at all.<u+201d> on thursday, it was back to peacemaking as one of trump<u+2019>s top aides met with lawmakers on capitol hill and the candidate attended two fundraisers for republicans in new york. at a $1,000-per-plate dinner in manhattan, trump skipped his usual criticisms of his rivals and the republican party. but then, thursday night, the journal op-ed under trump<u+2019>s name went online, reigniting the fires. the fresh tension comes just as the party heads into another busy period of delegate allocation and selection. this weekend, seven states will hold meetings to select at least some of their delegates. republicans will gather in georgia, kansas, oklahoma, south carolina and virginia for meetings in congressional districts to award their delegates. and in wyoming, republicans are hosting a convention similar to the one held in colorado, and trump<u+2019>s team concedes that they are again poised to lose to cruz. correction: an earlier version of this story incorrectly characterized how colorado selects its republican convention delegates.

it<u+2019>s on: tensions between trump and the gop escalate in public fight

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the republican nomination is his.<u+00a0>now there's a new question: can donald trump win the white house? with a decisive victory in the indiana primary tuesday,<u+00a0>the billionaire businessman who was initially ridiculed as a reality-tv<u+00a0>candidate was declared the presumptive nominee<u+00a0>by republican national chairman committee reince priebus. trump's final two rivals, texas sen. ted cruz and ohio gov. john kasich, called it quits, sealing the most remarkable political rise in modern american history. now some of his primary rivals and<u+00a0>other senior republicans argue that trump's lack of governmental<u+00a0>experience and his unprecedented negative ratings <u+2014> including among<u+00a0>such crucial electoral groups as women, latinos and young people <u+2014> will doom his prospects<u+00a0>in november.<u+00a0>but as trump likes to remind people, the conventional wisdom has been wrong about him from the start. "it's been some unbelievable day and evening and year,"<u+00a0>trump declared in a victory speech tuesday night in the lobby of trump tower in new york, where he had announced his candidacy almost a year ago.<u+00a0><u+201c>we<u+2019>re going to win big league, believe me." he faces what could charitably be described as an uphill battle. a national cnn/orc poll, taken april 28-may 1, showed clinton with a daunting lead over trump of<u+00a0>54%-41%. to win the white house, he needs to hold all of the states mitt romney won in 2012, with a total of 206 electoral votes, then add at least 64 more to get to the 270 mark to claim<u+00a0>the presidency. a look at five states that could hold the key to<u+00a0>both how a trump victory is possible and how difficult it will be. here's one scenario that<u+00a0>would give trump 273 electoral votes <u+2014> and the white house. in the past 16 presidential elections, arizona has voted democratic just once, in 1996. but trump's characterization of mexican immigrants as rapists and murderers<u+00a0>and his vow to build a wall along the southern border have energized latino voters here. in the latest realclearpolitics average of recent statewide polls, clinton leads the state by<u+00a0>3.5 percentage points. she and trump showed strength in arizona in its primaries last month, each<u+00a0>winning by double digits. democrats say north carolina has been moving in the party's direction, but after barack obama carried the state in 2008 he lost it in 2012. now clinton leads trump by 2 points in statewide polls, and both husband bill clinton and daughter chelsea clinton have visited the state<u+00a0>in recent weeks.<u+00a0>boosted by her solid support among african americans, clinton won the primary over vermont sen. bernie sanders by 14 points in march; trump edged texas sen. ted cruz by 3 points. florida defines a swing state: in the last six elections, democrats have carried it three times, republicans have carried it three times. in statewide polls, clinton now leads, but by just 2.2 points. she's already returned to the state for campaign-related events since the democratic primary in march, which she won by more than 30 points.<u+00a0>but<u+00a0>trump has roots in florida, including his lavish<u+00a0>mar-a-lago estate in palm beach. he<u+00a0>crushed florida sen. marco rubio in the primary by close to 20 points after pushing former governor<u+00a0>jeb bush<u+00a0>out of the race entirely. would "little marco," as trump called<u+00a0>rubio, pitch in to help in the fall? no republican has won the white house without carrying ohio, and since 1960 the buckeye state has had<u+00a0>a perfect record of going with the national winner. at the moment, clinton holds a lead in statewide polls, but it's narrow: 3.5 points. in march, she easily won the state's democratic primary. trump lost the republican primary to the home-state governor, john kasich. but ohio's struggling manufacturing base and its hard-pressed blue-collar voters could provide a receptive audience<u+00a0>for trump's message in the general election. kasich<u+00a0>would be in a position to boost the gop nominee, if he chose to do so. and where was clinton campaigning tuesday? ohio. pennsylvania hasn't voted republican in the presidential race since 1988, but the state includes many of the white working-class voters who are trump's most fervent supporters. in last week's primary, trump won two-thirds of republican voters who didn't have a college degree, defeating cruz overall by more than 2-1.<u+00a0>clinton won the democratic primary by 12 points. in statewide polls now, clinton leads by 7.4 points. as in florida and ohio, pennsylvania has a competitive senate race that could also play a role.

if donald trump wants to beat hillary clinton, he needs to win these 5 states

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ohio democrat tim ryan does a lot of media but only has 2 public supporters

reid plotting to stay in power

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shortages of women, minorities and conservatives are shaping digital content in ways you can't see. we<u+2019>ve learned a lot this month about how facebook picks its trending topics: a team of curators monitors lists of stories organized by an algorithm, boosting, banning and remixing headlines in real time. those curators may or may not suppress conservative news, something that<u+2019>s sparked questions about how the social network shapes the content users see. facebook is, of course, free to decide what to publish,<u+00a0>but a public conversation about its methods is still a good thing, especially if that discussion focuses on more than political leanings. anyone troubled by the notion of bias at facebook,<u+00a0>including the conservative leaders who met with ceo mark zuckerberg on wednesday,<u+00a0>should also be upset<u+00a0>by its lack of diversity and<u+00a0>the homogeneous workforces of many tech companies. these cornerstones of the social web play significant roles in determining what is and isn<u+2019>t news. if the default worker is white, male, straight and liberal,<u+00a0>that increases the risk that journalism<u+2019>s future will repeat the mistakes of its past. it<u+2019>s no secret that traditional journalism has a diversity problem. the american society of news editors<u+2019> most recent census found that just under 13%<u+00a0>of daily newspaper journalists were non-white and 37%<u+00a0>were female. broadcast newsrooms are slightly more diverse, with 22%<u+00a0>minorities and 41%<u+00a0>women. as for ideology, only<u+00a0>7% of journalists<u+00a0>in a 2013 indiana university survey said they were republicans. four times as many said they were<u+00a0>democrats and over half were independents. a diverse press corps matters for lots of reasons, but here<u+2019>s the most important one: there<u+2019>s no such thing as an objective journalist. most of us strive for fairness and accuracy in our methods, but every choice we make <u+2014><u+00a0>who we interview, what details we include, where to deploy our newsroom resources <u+2014> reflects our own subtle biases. so, when everyone shares the same cultural identity, it<u+2019>s easier to overlook important stories or to misrepresent entire segments of the population. practicing journalism means makes countless choices. the same it true when it comes to writing the computer code that powers facebook and other digital platforms. programmers, like journalists, help determine what goes viral and what vanishes into the deep recesses of the internet. facebook is more racially diverse than typical newsrooms: 55% of employees are white and 36% are asian. blacks, hispanics and people who identify as mixed race make up the remaining 9%. women, meanwhile, represent 32%<u+00a0>of the total facebook<u+00a0>workforce. they fill just 16%<u+00a0>of tech positions and represent 23%<u+00a0>of senior leadership.<u+00a0>facebook staffers also show signs of leaning to the political left: they've been far more likely to support liberal candidates and causes, according to one analysis<u+00a0>of campaign donations. just like good journalists strive for fairness, good programmers follow professional standards,<u+00a0>but neither can escape subtle personal biases. take, for instance, when software used by little league baseball to write game stories attached a male pronoun to (female) pitcher mo<u+2019>ne davis. there<u+2019>s also evidence that programs used to screen resumes and loan applications may learn the biases of their creators. when it comes to the modern information ecosystem, these subtleties matter more than ever before. we are, as the nieman lab<u+2019>s joshua benton wrote last year, awash in a <u+201c>wave<u+201d> of distributed content <u+2014><u+00a0>material created for platforms other than the news organization<u+2019>s website. snapchat discover, apple news and facebook<u+2019>s instant articles are just some of the ways news now finds it audience. groups like the national association of black journalists, the association of lgbt journalists and the journalism and women symposium (of which i<u+2019>m a member)<u+00a0>have worked for decades to diversify journalism. yet<u+00a0>the facebook flap is a powerful reminder that pushing for change in newsrooms alone<u+00a0>isn<u+2019>t enough. diversity matters for both the organizations producing the content and the organizations helping it find an audience. facebook<u+2019>s employees should continue choosing the topics they believe are the most relevant, but users must demand that the people who make those choices <u+2014> and the people who write the computer code that helps determine<u+00a0>what choices are available <u+2014> represent the full diversity of the human experience. meg heckman, a writer on gender, politics and technology, is a lecturer in journalism at theuniversity of new hampshire. follow her on twitter @meg_heckman. in addition to its own editorials, usa today publishes diverse opinions from outside writers, including our<u+00a0>board of contributors. to read more columns, go to the<u+00a0>opinion front page<u+00a0>and follow us on twitter<u+00a0>@usatopinion.

unskewing facebook will take all kinds: column

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amid dizzying chaos in presidential politics (at least on the republican side) and seemingly intractable dysfunction in washington, it<u+2019>s tempting to conclude that stabilizing influences are nowhere to be found. but that wouldn<u+2019>t be true. hidden in plain view, state parties continue to play a critical and distinctive role in politics, and strengthening them is an achievable way to improve the functioning of the political system. that is what raymond j. la raja (a political scientist with the university of massachusetts at amherst) and i conclude in a new brookings report. in <u+201c>the state of state parties,<u+201d> the two of us, along with u-mass (amherst) researcher samuel vansant stoddard, looked up-close and in detail at the condition of state party committees, surveying all 100 of them (56 responded) and interviewing 15 of their leaders. we also compared our findings with earlier surveys, gathered national data, and interviewed national-level party officials. our main conclusions: beyond its conclusions, our report provides a rich account of what state parties are doing and how well they<u+2019>re doing it in the real world. the report<u+2019>s findings are data driven and complemented with rich quotations and stories. the disorganization of american politics is a generational problem that will take years to sort out. being political realists, la raja and i believe reforms need to be gradualist and doable, and they need to cut with, rather than against, the grain of everyday political incentives. state parties have been overlooked for too long, and they offer fertile ground for practical and attainable solutions for the growing dysfunction in american politics.

state parties can reduce polarization and improve the political system | institution

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washington, d.c., is poised to give workers in the city the most generous family-leave benefits in the country -- a plan that is backed by the obama administration and would side-step congress on such issues. if approved, the legislation would give essentially every part- and full-time employee in the nation<u+2019>s capital as much as 16 weeks of paid leave for such family matters as newborn care, illness or a sick relative. the plan would be funded by an employer tax and was introduced last week with support from seven city council members, enough to pass in the 13-person panel, in one of the most liberal cities in the country. the obama administration and other supporters argue lower-paid employees cannot afford to take off work for family matters and that 43 million u.s. private-sector workers have no employer-paid sick days. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s important for women to take time at home when they have a child and for people to take time off when they have a sick family member," dave alpert, publisher of the news website greater, greater washington, told foxnews.com on thursday. "but a lot of people cannot afford to go without pay to do that. this bill would allow them to not have to make the all-or-nothing choice." supporters also argue the united states lags far behind europe in proving such benefits and that expanding such care would make the district of columbia more competitive in the labor market. however, businesses and other critics say the plan would over-burden some companies, particularly smaller ones and perhaps force them to leave. <u+201c>the d.c. chamber of commerce cannot support the legislation,<u+201d> said group president harry wingo, suggesting, in part, a lack of adequate financial analysis. <u+201c>this bill would be unprecedented and make the district of columbia dangerously uncompetitive.<u+201d> the administration has thrown its full support behind the effort, making at least $1 million in labor department grant money available this year for cities and states. in addition, agency secretary thomas perez joined valerie jarrett, a senior adviser to president obama, this spring on a cross-country promotional tour that also included blogs, web testimonials and an online google hangout chat. <u+201c>across the country, state and local governments aren<u+2019>t waiting for congress to take action,<u+201d> perez said in april, after the <u+201c>lead to leave<u+201d> tour stopped in providence, r.i. he also reminded americans that the administration is committed to expanding access to paid leave by <u+201c>supporting cities and states seeking to enact paid leave policies<u+201d> and that obama in his 2015 state of the union address called on them to pass legislation to expand sick pay for workers. obama has made some headway in efforts to increase wages and narrow the country<u+2019>s so-called income-inequality gap, in part by using an executive order to increase the minimum wage for federal contract employees. however, his efforts to increase the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to at least $10.10 an hour have failed in the republican-controlled congress. <u+201c>this is of national interest, and the district is leading the way,<u+201d> d.c. councilwoman elissa silverman, an independent, said thursday about the family leave proposal, which she is co-sponsoring. silverman also pointed out that companies like netflix and facebook are offering similar deals to in part attract and keep employees, <u+201c>not just out of the goodness of their hearts.<u+201d> d.c. mayor muriel bowser, a democrat, has expressed support for the proposal but has also raised concerns about its potential fiscal impact on the city. the d.c. plan, kick-started with at least $96,000 of the federal grant money, would create a fund by taxing city employers on a sliding scale. the average annual cost would be roughly $385 per employee. employers would have to pay the equivalent of 1 percent of workers<u+2019> salaries of at least $150,000, or $1,500 a year. companies that pay the minimum wage ($10.50 an hour in the district) would pay about 0.6 percent, or about $131 annually for each employee. workers making up to $52,000 a year would be eligible for full wages or salary for a maximum 16 weeks. those who make more would be eligible for the first $1,000 of their weekly income, plus a percentage of the remainder up to $3,000 a week. among the exceptions are the self-employed and people who travel into the district to work for a federal agency or office because the city cannot tax the u.s. government nor impose a commuter tax. california, new jersey and rhode island already have mandated policies on family leave, but the district<u+2019>s offers more than twice as many paid weeks.

washington, dc, workers to get 16 weeks paid leave under city hall plan that taxes businesses

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during a house appropriations committee hearing, lawmakers added language to the 2016 defense spending bill stating that "congress has a constitutional duty to debate and determine whether or not to authorize the use of military force" against the islamic state in iraq and syria, also known as isil or isis. the amendment, offered by rep. barbara lee (d-calif.), has no binding effect. it does nothing to force a congressional debate on the duration, costs or endgame of the war. it simply states that it is congress' responsibility to have that debate and then vote to authorize, or not to authorize, war. "we must recognize that congress has an important role to play in matters of war and peace. it's way past time to reassert congress' role in war-making," said lee. "we can't allow this policy of endless war to continue. this amendment just says congress has a constitutional duty to debate and determine whether to use military force against isil. a debate. doing our job. that's all this amendment requires." president barack obama has been directing airstrikes against isis since august, and he's been doing so without new congressional authorization. the constitution requires congress to declare wars, but in this case, obama said he doesn't need lawmakers' sign-off because a sweeping 2001 authorization for use of military force covers his actions. lawmakers have disputed that point for months, so the president sent them a new, islamic state-specific aumf proposal in february, saying he welcomed a vote on it, even though he doesn't think he needs it. democrats say obama's proposal is too broad, republicans say it's too restrictive, and their differences have given way to complacency. that leaves the u.s. engaged in a military campaign with no end in sight. the u.s. has already spent more than $2.1 billion, participated in more than 4,000 airstrikes and sent 3,000 military personnel to iraq in the effort. the reality is that many lawmakers don't want anything to do with a war authorization vote, for fear that if something goes wrong, their fingerprints will be on it. a handful of democrats have been pushing for a debate and a vote, but neither gop nor democratic party leaders are doing anything to make the issue a priority. tuesday's committee vote at least showed there is bipartisan support in the house for debating and voting on war authorization -- something house speaker john boehner (r-ohio) has signaled isn't going to happen on his watch. "we are not only evading this responsibility on both sides of the aisle, quite frankly <u+2026> but we are handing over war-making authority to the executive branch, to all future presidents, with both hands. it is a gigantic mistake not to do our job," said cole. rep. rodney frelinghuysen (r-n.j.) was among those who opposed lee's amendment. he called it "totally inappropriate" to tie a war authorization measure -- even one that just states the role of congress -- to the defense spending bill. lee offered two other amendments that were rejected. one would have repealed the 2001 aumf, with a cushion of eight months for congress to pass a new, isis-specific aumf in its place. the other would have repealed the 2002 aumf that authorized the iraq war. neither of those aumfs have an expiration date, and obama has leaned on both as his legal justification for taking military action against isis on his own.

house committee votes to remind congress its job is to authorize wars

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"it ought be a local decision. i mean, a state decision," bush told the miami herald. "the state decided. the people of the state decided. but it<u+2019>s been overturned by the courts, i guess." "it's disappointing to see that jeb bush has the same opinion of marriage equality as the presumptive democratic nominee hillary clinton," angelo told the huffington post. "jeb had a chance to differentiate himself from her, and at the very least say that, in florida, marriage equality is settled law and there are more pressing issues demanding attention. as it stands, jeb tacks the same line as hillary: that marriage is something that should be left to the states." during an interview in june with npr's terry gross, clinton repeatedly said that for her, marriage had always been "a matter left to the states" but never clarified whether she believes same-sex marriage bans violate the u.s. constitution. "i don't think people need to be discriminated against because they don't share my belief on this, and if people love their children with all their heart and soul and that's what they do and that's how they organize their life, that should be held up as examples for others to follow because we need it," bush said. "we desperately need it and that can take all sorts of forms, it doesn't have to take the one that i think should be sanctioned under the law." update: 5:45 p.m. -- in a statement to the new york times monday, bush acknowledged that marriage equality was now the law of the land in many places and seemed to express little appetite for working to repeal it. "we live in a democracy, and regardless of our disagreements, we have to respect the rule of law," he said. "i hope that we can show respect for the good people on all sides of the gay and lesbian marriage issue -- including couples making lifetime commitments to each other who are seeking greater legal protections and those of us who believe marriage is a sacrament and want to safeguard religious liberty." update: 8:10 p.m. -- in a 1994 oped in the miami herald, dug up by buzzfeed, bush argued against providing lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender individuals equal legal protections, writing, "[should] sodomy be elevated to the same constitutional status as race and religion? my answer is no." bush spokeswoman kristy campbell said bush would no longer use that language: "gov. bush believes that our society should have a culture of respect for all people, regardless of their differences, and that begins with preventing discrimination, including when it comes to sexual orientation. this opinion editorial from 20 years ago does not reflect gov. bush<u+2019>s views now, nor would he use this terminology today."

jeb bush weighs in on same-sex marriage

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new jersey gov. chris christie has taken a major step toward a run for president in 2016, forming a political action committee that will allow him to raise money for a possible white house bid. the creation of the committee, called leadership matters for america, was confirmed to fox news by a christie adviser. the paperwork was filed friday before his address over the weekend to the iowa freedom summit, a conservative gathering in des moines. the committee, first reported by the wall street journal, also allows christie to begin to hire staffers, build the foundations of a campaign operation and travel across the country as he weighs a final decision on a run. he plans to make such trips starting in february, fox news has learned. the move comes one month after former florida gov. jeb bush announced that he was launching a similar organization, which kicked off an aggressive race to lock down donors and may have drawn 2012 gop nominee mitt romney into the race. the pac's staffers will include matt mowers, a former christie aide, who is stepping down from his job as executive director of the new hampshire republican party at the end of the month. christie is named as its honorary chairman. "we believe there's a void right now in leadership throughout the country," christie's chief political adviser mike duhaime told the journal. "we aim to support candidates who are willing to take on tough problems and make tough decisions." a mission statement on the organization's website echoes themes that christie has focused in recent speeches, including remarks on saturday in iowa in front of conservative activists. "america has been a nation that has always controlled events and yet today events control us. why? because leadership matters," the mission statement reads. "it matters if we want to restore america's role in the world, find the political will to take on the entrenched special interests that continually stand in the way of fundamental change, reform entitlement spending at every level of government, and ensure that every child, no matter their zip code, has access to a quality education." christie, a former federal prosecutor who passed up the opportunity to challenge president barack obama in 2012, turned quickly toward laying the groundwork for a 2016 campaign after winning a second gubernatorial term in the heavily democratic garden state in 2013. in the past several months, he has held meetings to court donors, convened late-night briefing sessions on foreign policy and made repeated visits to early-voting states, including in iowa over the weekend, where he vaguely referred to himself as "a candidate." he takes his next step into the race with several advantages, among them having recently completed a banner year of fundraising as chair of the republican governors association. the group raised more than $100 million on christie's watch and helped republican candidates win a series of unexpected races, including the nominally democratic states of maryland and illinois. serving as rga chief also gave christie the opportunity to travel across the country and build relationships with donors and activists. he is also one of his party's most talented retail politicians, reveling in the kind of one-on-one interaction that voters in the crucial early voting states of iowa and new hampshire demand. but christie also has challenges to overcome, including the still-pending federal investigation into accusations that former staff members and appointees created traffic jams as political payback against the democratic mayor of a new york suburb by blocking access lanes to the george washington bridge into manhattan. he's also dogged by questions about the economy of new jersey, including several recent downgrades of the state's credit rating and sluggish job growth. christie is also viewed with distrust in certain conservative circles, while other question whether his brash persona and habit of confrontation will play well outside his home state. while christie has told supporters to "relax" about the timing of his entry into the race, he has faced mounting pressure to get started after bush -- whose support and donor base significantly overlaps with christie's -- said he would "actively explore" a run. christie's campaign is likely to focus on many of the themes he's spent years developing in new jersey, including a pitch that he can expand the republican party's tent by appealing to independent, women and minority voters. fox news' serafin gomez and the associated press contributed to this report. click for more from the wall street journal.

christie launches pac in significant step toward white house run

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tuesday night was an amazing night for<u+00a0>hillary clinton, and not just because her<u+00a0>wins in florida and ohio made bernie sanders's path to the nomination nearly impossible. tuesday night was an amazing night for hillary clinton because<u+00a0>marco rubio dropped out of the race and virtually ensured she will face either<u+00a0>donald trump or<u+00a0>ted cruz in the general election. a couple of months ago, rubio's general election strength was conventional wisdom. "i sometimes want to run around the country grabbing republican voters by the lapels and screaming, 'you idiots! don<u+2019>t you realize democrats are a hundred times more scared of rubio than any of these other guys?'" wrote matt yglesias back in january. rubio was seen as a smart, nimble politician who could reassure moderates, appeal to latinos (or at least blunt their turnout), and unify the fractious republican party. but his poor performance in the primaries has led to a split in opinions on rubio. one view is that he was always a weak candidate <u+2014> it was a mass delusion on behalf of the political establishment to ever pretend otherwise. the other is that the republican party has gone around the bend in ways that made rubio, the party's strongest general election candidate by far, unacceptable to the republican base. i hold the second view. rubio's primary-season weaknesses were general election strengths. he does hopeful better than he does angry. his record includes occasional pivots toward the center, particularly on immigration. his r<u+00e9>sum<u+00e9> was relatively thin, and while that reminded some republicans of criticisms they made of obama, it also left less to attack in a general election. rubio was acceptable to all wings of the republican party even if he was the first choice of few. the result is that rubio could have unified the gop while running to the middle. his rhetoric was often as partisan and fearmongering as anyone else in the race, but, crucially, he had a second speed, too <u+2014> he was able to speak the language of optimism and uplift, he was able to come off more moderate than he really was, he was able to talk about the economy by making an argument about the future rather than just a divisive critique of the past. none of this fit the mood of the republican party in this moment, but these are the political skills you need <u+2014> or at least traditionally have needed <u+2014> to win a general election. trump and cruz don't have these skills. cruz is the kind of<u+00a0>hardcore conservative ideologue the republican party hasn't nominated since barry goldwater. trump is an extremist with extraordinarily high unfavorables who could split the republican party, to say nothing of the kind of turnout he'll inspire among hispanics, women, and young voters. either candidate solves clinton's turnout problems among democrats, where she's faced a real enthusiasm gap compared with obama. this is the race the clinton campaign didn't dare hope for. in recent years, the republican party has always turned to the candidate that looks best suited for the general election. in 2000, they went with george w. bush, the seemingly moderate governor of texas who ran as a compassionate conservative; in 2008, they went with john mccain, a politician democrats and independents once liked so much that john kerry tried to add him to the democratic ticket in 2008; in 2012, they went with mitt romney, who had been a moderate governor of a very blue state. there was nothing in this record to predict that republicans would turn to a cruz or trump in 2016. but that's what they look to be doing. could clinton still lose the general? sure. donald trump is winning elections all across the country. american politics is a magical land of surprises. but the clinton campaign couldn't ask for weaker opponents than trump or cruz. this is an outcome that gives them a chance to win back the senate, to pull off the kind of landslide that's rarely seen in modern american politics.

hillary clinton had an amazing night <u+2014> and not just because of her victories

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with no presidential election or congressional seats on the line, tuesday<u+2019>s election watchers were focused on some high-profile ballot initiatives, a governor<u+2019>s race in<u+00a0>kentucky<u+00a0>and a handful of other races. here are some of the highlights, compiled from the journal<u+2019>s reports across the country.

election 2015 highlights: who won, who lost?

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sen. bernie sanders won nearly three dozen delegates more than hillary clinton saturday in sweeping the alaska, washington and hawaii democratic presidential caucuses, but the strong, comeback victories failed to cut substantially into the front-runner's big lead. sanders needs to win 67 percent of the remaining delegates and uncommitted super-delegates through june to clinch the democratic nomination. and so far he's winning only 37 percent. there were 162 delegates at stake saturday -- washington with 101, followed by hawaii with 25 and alaska with 16. the vermont senator won 55 delegates, compared to 20 for clinton. however, more will likely be allocated to sanders in several weeks, when the washington state democratic party releases vote shares by district. still, clinton still maintains a wide advantage in delegates, winning 1,243 to sanders' 975 based on primary and caucuses to date. her lead is even bigger when including super-delegates, or party officials who can back any candidate they wish. clinton has 1,712 to sanders' 1,004, with 2,383 needed to win. still, sanders sounded optimistic sunday about his chances. <u+201c>our calculations are that in fact we can win the pledge delegates,<u+201d> he said on nbc<u+2019>s <u+201c>meet the press.<u+201d> <u+201c>we have the momentum. we have won five out of the six last contests in landslide fashion. <u+2026> and the reason is the issues that we are talking about -- a corrupt campaign finance system, the disappearance of the american middle class, <u+2026> kids graduating college $50,000 in debt.<u+201d> to be sure, sanders had a good saturday, which he hopes will give him some momentum as the primary-caucus season moves to the midwest, northeast, then to the west coast, including california with 546 delegates at stake in june. sanders won alaska 81-to-18 percent over clinton; 68-32 in hawaii and 73-26 in washington, with all precincts having reported. the self-described democratic socialist on saturday night acknowledged his struggles in earlier contests across the south, with its strong conservative voting bloc, but struck an optimistic tone. "we knew things were going to improve as we headed west," he said at a rally in madison, wis. "we are making significant inroads in ... clinton's lead. ... we have a path toward victory." the next democratic and republican primaries are april 5 in wisconsin. other big, upcoming primaries include maryland, pennsylvania and new york, clinton<u+2019>s home state. sanders is popular among younger and more progressive americans but continues to struggle to connect with hispanic and african-american voters. he was expected to do well in washington, considering residents of seattle, the biggest city in the pacific northwest, are among the most liberal in the country and major campaign contributors. he drew more than 10,000 supporters at an outdoor rally friday evening in seattle. and the state appeared to have a record voter turnout, similar to others that have helped keep alive sanders<u+2019> insurgent campaign. most of washington<u+2019>s democratic leadership endorsed clinton, including gov. jay inslee, seattle mayor ed murray and sens. patty murray and maria cantwell. still, sanders entered saturday<u+2019>s contests optimistic after winning more delegate than clinton in three contests earlier last week -- nearly 20 in the idaho and utah caucuses, despite losing the marquee arizona primary to the former secretary of state. sanders has done significantly better in caucus contests, now winning 10 of the last 12. most of his 15 primary-season wins have been in states with largely white populations and in the caucus contests, which tend to attract the most active liberal democrats. while sanders faces a steep climb to the nomination, clinton<u+2019>s recent losses highlight her persistent vulnerabilities, including concerns about her trustworthiness and weak support among younger voters. clinton has been looking past the primary contests and aiming at potential republican challengers. she did not hold a public event after the saturday<u+2019>s results were announced. but in interviews, rallies and speeches last week, she largely focused on tuesday's deadly attacks in brussels, casting gop front-runner donald trump and texas sen. ted cruz as unqualified to deal with complicated international threats. her campaign sees the april 19 contest in new york as an important one, not just because of the rich delegate prize but because losing to sanders in a state she represented in the senate would be a psychological blow. she hopes to lock up an even larger share of delegates in five northeastern contests a week later. fox news<u+2019> lauren blanchard and joseph weber and the associated press contributed to this report.

sanders sweeps in alaska, hawaii, washington, but too little too late?

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killing obama administration rules, dismantling obamacare and pushing through tax reform are on the early to-do list.

gop searches for obamacare fix

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(cnn) the contamination of drinking water in flint, michigan, has so outraged community advocates that they now pose a powerful question: was the city neglected because it is mostly black and about 40% poor? several advocates say yes. they charge that flint residents are victims of "environmental racism" -- that is, race and poverty factored into how flint wasn't adequately protected and how its water became contaminated with lead, making the tap water undrinkable. "would more have been done, and at a much faster pace, if nearly 40 percent of flint residents were not living below the poverty line? the answer is unequivocally yes," the naacp said in a statement. others go further. "while it might not be intentional, there's this implicit bias against older cities -- particularly older cities with poverty (and) majority-minority communities," said democratic u.s. rep. dan kildee, who represents the flint area. "it's hard for me to imagine the indifference that we've seen exhibited if this had happened in a much more affluent community," he said. naacp president and ceo cornell brooks drew a direct connection between flint's socioeconomic factors and the toxic drinking water. "environmental racism + indifference = lead in the water & blood," he tweeted. brooks is pressing for a definitive plan of attack. "we're trying to take action that is specific, that's focused, that's urgent and speaks to the people's needs," he said. "talking with a deadline that has dollar symbols represents action, and that's what we're trying to do." in an interview with cnn's poppy harlow this week, michigan gov. rick snyder repeatedly said that he was taking responsibility for the crisis even as she reminded him that his then-chief of staff sent an email in july 2015 to a health department official warning of lead in the flint drinking water. the email was released as part of a freedom of information request. in october 2014, general motors stopped using flint river water at its engine plant because the company was seeing rust of vehicle parts. snyder said that general motors' concern "was not a lead issue." harlow responded, "it was the same issue of the pipes being corroded by the water, chemicals in the water, just like it is (in flint.) it's actually the same." the governor said, "these are very technical issues. but the lead came to my attention in october, end of september, early october of 2015. we took immediate action, need to do more, did more." he said flint has seen a 45% reduction in crime, and he touted a dental program for low-income children -- all moves his administration pushed for. "in terms of saying it happened because of the nature of the community here? absolutely not." snyder compared flint's unemployment struggles and other economic woes to what people in detroit have endured in recent years, and he said his administration is responsible for improvements there. this week, snyder was served with a subpoena by attorneys representing flint residents who have filed a class-action suit. they have asked for the governor's emails and text messages going back to january 2011. snyder has released some emails from 2014 and 2015. "will you release all of those back to 2011, from personal and work accounts?" harlow asked. "i released the relevant emails, my emails, that address that issue for the relevant time period," said snyder, who has released some emails from 2014 and 2015. "we are complying with every investigation in terms of being open," he added. "we'll follow the appropriate legal process for subpoenas and other legal matters." "again, we're complying with every investigation," snyder said. "we'll follow the appropriate legal process for subpoenas and other legal matters. with respect to releasing my emails, i did that. this is an extraordinary case." whether flint's water crisis happened because the city has poor residents has been discussed in social media, particularly by filmmaker and flint native michael moore. "this is a racial killing. flint mi is 60% black. when u knowingly poison a black city, u r committing a version of genocide #arrestgovsnyder," moore tweeted at one point. "just to be clear: all 102k residents of flint have been exposed to toxic water, all of flint's kids have ingested lead, & 10 ppl have died," moore tweeted on another occasion. the black lives matter group said african-americans, especially those in rural and poor areas, have long been denied equal access to clean drinking water. on monday, state attorney general bill schuette said he is appointing an ex-prosecutor and detroit's former fbi chief to join the investigation into flint's water crisis, creating a "conflict wall" between the state's inquiry and the lawsuits targeting the state. the prior announced investigation will determine "whether any michigan laws were violated in the process that created a major public health crisis for flint residents." flint's state of emergency -- declared at municipal and state levels -- began years ago when the city suffered a financial emergency. the state took over the city's budget and decided to temporarily switch flint's water source from lake huron to the flint river to save money until a new supply line to lake huron was ready. the river, however, was long-known as befouled. locals call it the "general motors sewer." after the april 2014 switch, residents complained their water had problems. virginia tech researchers found the water was highly corrosive. a class-action lawsuit alleges the state department of environmental quality didn't treat the water for corrosion, in accordance with federal law, and because so many service lines to flint are made of lead, the noxious element leached into the water of the city's homes. the city switched back to the lake huron water supply in october, but the damage was already done to the lead pipes. the state is now handing out filters and bottled water with the national guard.

flint, michigan: neglected because city is black, poor?

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democratic presidential candidates hillary clinton and bernie sanders are spending their final weekend in california, before the state<u+2019>s big primary tuesday, rallying voters over immigration issues and warning the state<u+2019>s diverse electorate about the perils of electing republican donald trump. on saturday, sanders expressed confidence that he could win a majority of votes next week in california, montana, new jersey, new mexico, south dakota and north dakota. however, the vermont senator acknowledged that he<u+2019>ll need a high voter turnout, like those that have helped him win previous state contests. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s going to be an uphill battle<u+201d> sanders said a press conference in los angeles, repeating what he has said many times recently. still, a report friday by the state that a record 17.9 million californians, or 72 percent of eligible state voters, are registered to vote in the primaries could help sanders. sanders on saturday also repeated that the front-running clinton will not have enough pledged delegates after polls close tuesday to secure the nomination. he said she will have to instead rely on super-delegates, or those who have previously committed to clinton, to claim the nomination and that he will continue to try to win over those delegates to take the nomination at the party<u+2019>s convention in july. <u+201c>we look forward on tuesday to doing very well,<u+201d> sanders said. <u+201c>there will be a contested convention. <u+2026> super delegates can and have changed their candidate choice in the past.<u+201d> he also focused on the issue of immigration, as clinton did earlier in the day in california, a state that borders mexico and where hispanics will be a key voting bloc. sanders argued that trump, <u+00a0>the presumptive gop presidential nominee, should not be elected because his <u+201c>bigotry<u+201d> against mexicans, muslims, african-americans and others <u+201c>cannot be tolerated.<u+201d> <u+201c>donald trump cannot be elected president,<u+201d> sanders said. he also spoke saturday to supporters at his campaign headquarters in los angeles. clinton, in a panel discussion in slymar, calif., expressed optimism about passing legislation to overhaul federal immigration law. clinton argued that as u.s. senators she supported bipartisan senate reform legislation while sanders did not. <u+201c>it was heartbreaking,<u+201d> she said. <u+201c>there were people from every part of the planet who were so hopeful. <u+2026> i believe that after this election, if all goes well, we will have a chance to pass immigration reform.<u+201d> she also said trump plans to deport 11 million illegal immigrants, calling such talk <u+201c>the most unfair and dangerous kind of conversation<u+201d> that has veered off <u+201c>toward anger and fear.<u+201d> other scheduled events for clinton this weekend included a stop saturday in oxnard, calif. trump campaigned this week in california, despite having enough delegates to secure the gop nomination, but held no events saturday. some of those events brought violent protests outside the venues. one of california<u+2019>s most influential daily newspapers, the san francisco chronicle, this weekend endorsed neither clinton, sanders nor trump. that the chronicle wouldn<u+2019>t endorse trump was not surprising, consider the editorial board for the paper, in liberal-leaning northern california, had previously expressed its distaste for what it calls his <u+201c>low-substance, high-insult candidacy.<u+201d> the paper was also highly critical of the front-running clinton, pointing out her refusal to meet with the board and her many fundraising forays in the state. however, the chronicle declined to back sanders in the neck-and-neck primary tuesday, suggesting his <u+201c>aggressively progressive promises<u+201d> can never be realized with so many republicans ruling congress. two other major california dailies -- the los angeles times and the san diego union tribune -- have endorsed clinton. the tribune this weekend sarcastically endorsed ronald reagan over trump.

sanders, clinton talk immigration, battle for hispanic vote before big california primary

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the murder charge against jesse matthew jr. comes in addition to a count of abduction with intent to defile filed against him previously, albemarle county commonwealth's attorney denise lunsford said. "these indictments signal the beginning of the next phase in what has been an incredibly difficult process for the family of hannah graham, for our community and for the men and women of the many departments and agencies who have worked on this matter since september of last year," lunsford said. lunsford's team decided not to charge matthew with capital murder, which could have led to a death sentence if he were convicted. lunsford said she wouldn't give details on what led to that decision, except to say that a "great deal of serious thought" went into it. those considerations included "the impact on the community, the grahams, and the need to provide mr. matthew with a fair trial." "i have discussed this matter with the grahams on many occasions, and they are aware of the indictments," lunsford said. matthew also was charged with reckless driving in two incidents about a week after graham's disappearance, lunsford said. matthew's first court appearance on the indictments is scheduled for february 18. his attorney, jim camblos, declined to comment tuesday, except to acknowledge the february 18 court appearance and to say that he received news of the indictments late monday afternoon. graham, 18, went missing before dawn on september 13 after she was last spotted on surveillance video in charlottesville's downtown mall area. in october, authorities found what turned out to be graham's skull and bones on abandoned property 8 miles from where the college sophomore was last seen. surveillance video and other accounts led authorities to identify matthew as a suspect in her disappearance. matthew, 33, was taken into custody on september 24 on a beach in galveston county, texas, about 1,300 miles away from where graham was last seen. no link to another slaying matthew's arrest in the graham case prompted authorities to investigate his possible links to a string of unsolved killings and disappearances in the area. one of those cases involved 17-year-old alexis murphy of lovingston, virginia, who disappeared in 2013 and whose body has not been found. but on friday, authorities said they had found no link between him and murphy's slaying. in fairfax, virginia, in 2005; the trial in that case is scheduled for march. in fairfax, virginia, in 2005; the trial in that case is scheduled for march. matthew is also charged in the sexual assault of a woman in fairfax, virginia, in 2005; the trial in that case is scheduled for march. authorities said that in september 2005, a 26-year-old woman returning from a grocery store was grabbed from behind and sexually assaulted. the attacker was scared off by a passerby. information from the 2005 victim led police to link matthew to the case of another missing young woman, morgan harrington, a virginia tech student who vanished in charlottesville in october 2009 and was found dead a few months later. matthew has not been charged in that case. investigators are looking into his possible connection to other similar cases in the area. they include the august 2009 killing of virginia tech students heidi childs and david metzler and the october 2009 killing of 23-year-old cassandra morton of lynchburg, virginia. police are also investigating matthew's possible ties to the disappearance of 19-year-old samantha ann clarke of orange, virginia.

jesse matthew charged in hannah graham slaying

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a federal judge in texas is working to block president barack obama's executive action on immigration. on monday, u.s. district judge andrew hanen issued a temporary injunction that gives a coalition of 26 states time to pursue a lawsuit that aims to permanently stop the president's orders. the white house said the justice department will appeal the decision. the ruling puts on hold obama's orders that could spare as many as 5 million people who are in the united<u+00a0>states illegally from deportation. on tuesday, the white house issued a statement saying monday's ruling "wrongly prevents" the president's "lawful, commonsense polices" from taking effect. house speaker john boehner, r-ohio, said the federal judge's ruling was no surprise, citing obama's repeated comments about the limits of his authority.

judge blocks president obama's immigration order

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in a flurry of activity on monday, donald trump named three republican politicians seemingly in contention to be named as his vice-presidential pick at the party<u+2019>s national convention in cleveland later this month. those named were the first-term iowa senator joni ernst, the first-term arkansas senator tom cotton <u+2013> like ernst a military veteran <u+2013> and the governor of indiana, mike pence. trump spent time with pence and his family on sunday and was due to meet ernst in new jersey on monday. ernst was endorsed by the tea party and won her senate seat in 2014, running an infamous ad featuring a boast of growing up <u+201c>castrating hogs on an iowa farm<u+201d> and the promise that once in washington she would <u+201c>know how to cut pork<u+201d>, thus making <u+201c>big spenders <u+2026> squeal<u+201d>. in 2015, she delivered the republican response to barack obama<u+2019>s state of the union address. cotton, 39 and thought by some a likely post-trump presidential candidate in 2020, has not been as often named among potential trump vps as pence and ernst. in his tweet, trump said cotton had been <u+201c>great on meet the press yesterday. despite a totally one-sided interview by chuck todd, the end result was solid!<u+201d> cotton gave little away in his nbc interview, saying trump could <u+201c>make the case for himself<u+201d> as to why he should be president. he was more forthright in attacking hillary clinton, who he said had been <u+201c>responsible for many of the worst decisions of the obama administration<u+201d>. trump<u+2019>s note of complaint about todd<u+2019>s questioning echoed another tweet sent on monday, in which he blamed the <u+201c>dishonest media<u+201d> for a furor over a tweet he sent and then deleted on saturday, which showed clinton next to a six-pointed star against a background of dollar bills, prompting accusations of antisemitism. the image was later found by reporters on a white supremacist message board, in a post predating trump<u+2019>s tweet. the former house speaker newt gingrich, who has repeatedly said he is open to being trump<u+2019>s vp, may yet be considered too forthright. last week, in words that echoed strongly on monday in the controversy over trump<u+2019>s clinton tweet, he told an audience at the aspen ideas festival: <u+201c>trump<u+2019>s job is, frankly, to quit screwing up and get the election down to three or four big issues.<u+201d> the new jersey governor, chris christie, and senator jeff sessions of alabama have also been reported to be under consideration. trump has said the pick will likely be announced at the convention in cleveland, which starts on 18 july, but some sources suggest he may announce sooner, to help drum up excitement. as evidence of his management of a process which generates relatively positive publicity, trump also tweeted on monday: <u+201c>the only people who are not interested in being the vp pick are the people who have not been asked!<u+201d> many of the republican party<u+2019>s biggest names are not willing to appear at the convention. the former presidents george hw bush and george w bush; the 2012 presidential nominee, mitt romney; and the ohio governor, john kasich, all plan to avoid the four-day event. possible speakers include the former indiana basketball coach bobby knight, the new england patriots quarterback tom brady and the boxing promoter don king. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m going to be involved, definitely,<u+201d> king, who lives in cleveland, told the associated press. <u+201c>he<u+2019>s my man. i love him. he<u+2019>s going to be the next president.<u+201d> some celebrities backing trump have, however, passed on the convention. the super bowl-winning chicago bears coach mike ditka told the chicago tribune last week: <u+201c>i spoke with mr trump this afternoon, and he invited me. but i don<u+2019>t think i<u+2019>m going to go.<u+201d> trump<u+2019>s campaign has also been in touch with aides to the man who challenged him most strongly in the primary, the texas senator ted cruz, who has reportedly been trying to win a speaking slot. others under consideration include the former united nations ambassador and sometime presidential hopeful john bolton, the west virginia senator shelley moore capito and the washington representative cathy mcmorris rodgers. gingrich, a likely convention speaker who also spoke to the ap, said trump <u+201c>understands that if he can appeal to consumer america, he drowns political america<u+201d>. he also recalled a recent conversation with a trump family member who confidently told him: <u+201c>we know how to do conventions.<u+201d> trump<u+2019>s daughter, ivanka, predicted in a recent radio interview the convention would be <u+201c>a great combination of our great politicians, but also great american businessmen and women and leaders across industry and leaders across really all sectors, from athletes to coaches and everything in between. <u+201c>i think it will be a convention unlike any we<u+2019>ve ever seen,<u+201d> she said. <u+201c>it will be substantive. it will be interesting. it will be different. it<u+2019>s not going to be a ho-hum lineup of, you know, the typical politicians.<u+201d> a trump spokesman, jason miller, told the ap: <u+201c>this is not going to be your typical party convention like years past. donald trump is better suited than just about any candidate in memory to put together a program that<u+2019>s outside of washington and can appeal directly to the american people.<u+201d> matt borges, the ohio republican party chairman, said: <u+201c>[trump] is going to have to bring all his skills to bear to make this work, not just in cleveland, but for the next four months. <u+201c>it won<u+2019>t be easy, but that<u+2019>s what he<u+2019>s got to do.<u+201d>

trump names three apparent vice-presidential possibilities on twitter

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now, the sales pitch is over. the supreme court will rule this month in<u+00a0>king v. burwell. the lawsuit<u+00a0>will determine whether the obama administration has the legal authority to dole out billions in tax subsidies to<u+00a0>obamacare enrollees. unlike the last time conservatives took obamacare to the supreme court <u+2014> when the republican party, major activists, and 26 attorneys general joined forces <u+2014> the new challenge has a more surprising backstory for a big case. it is the result of the key players working loosely, overcoming lawsuit fatigue in conservative circles, pushing an argument that seems more technical than substantive, and even a bit of luck. "i think people imagine a eureka moment. it was nothing like that." "there is nothing very organized about it," michael greve, a law professor at george mason university who supports the case, has<u+00a0>written. "the litigation has no single mastermind or man behind the curtain. the campaign is the product of a loose conservative-libertarian infrastructure." the case now sits with the supreme court, despite the unusual route it took. so while supporters might have viewed it as a nonsense legal challenge <u+2014> never taking it as seriously as the individual mandate case <u+2014> they still find themselves back where they were three years ago: fearing that the law could fall apart with just one court decision. tom christina did not want to take on the affordable care act. a former reagan-administration official turned corporate lawyer, christina is part of the 36-person employee-benefits practice at the law firm ogletree deakins. when congress began to pursue health reform, his firm decided that somebody ought to read the actual bill. christina got the assignment. "someone had to follow the act in case it got passed," he told me in a recent interview. "i was volunteered for that job." so, christina read the law. and at<u+00a0>a poorly attended conference at the american enterprise institute in december 2010, he spoke about his findings. no one cared too much. the conference was aimed at finding new ways to challenge the health-care law. there was a then-nascent challenge to the individual mandate winding its way through district courts that looked promising. conservatives were still hungry to hedge their bets and find other ways to bring down obamacare if the individual-mandate argument failed (as it ultimately did). "the bastard has to be killed as a matter of political hygiene," greve, then the director of the federalism project at the american enterprise institute, declared at the panel. "i do not care how this is done, whether it's dismembered, whether we drive a stake through its heart, whether we tar and feather it and drive it out of town, or if we strangle it. i don't care who does it, whether it's some court someplace or the united states congress, any which way, any dollar spent on that goal is worth spending." where greve spoke in bold declarations, christina gravitated towards more subdued legalese. when he dropped a bombshell in the form of a dark-blue powerpoint slide, none of the attending wonks actually seemed to notice. the slide pointed out that the section of obamacare that explained how tax credits work <u+2014> section 1401(a)(2), to be exact <u+2014> specified that the financial help would go to those who purchased coverage on "an exchange established by the state." there was no similar provision, or call out, for people who got their coverage on a marketplace that the federal government set up. "i noticed something peculiar about the tax credits. there will be no tax credits for tax payers who live in non-capitulating states," christina told the audience. looking back on that presentation, christina says he really didn't think much at the time about what this would mean for the health-care law. "i think people imagine a eureka moment," says christina. "it was nothing like that. i was assigned to do this for my firm." the affordable care act did not follow the normal procedure when it became law. normally, one chamber passes its own version of a bill. the other chamber passes a separate version. the two bodies hold a conference, where they reconcile any differences between the two bills and generally clean up the language and tighten the statute. the merged bill goes back to both chambers, which vote again. this did not happen with the affordable care act. as anyone who covered it at the time <u+2014> as i did, working as a reporter for newsweek <u+2014> remembers, the law's passage was an absolute mess. sen. ted kennedy's death in december 2010 lost the democrats their supermajority in the senate <u+2014> and meant that the health law wouldn't survive a second vote in the senate. democrats were forced to stick with the senate bill they had already passed; anything they sent back to the chamber for another vote would inevitably fail. a final conference never happened. all the messy language and loose ends that legislators expected to get ironed out simply became part of the law. during the days and nights i spent on capitol hill covering the debate, the idea of not offering subsidies to some enrollees just never came up. staff who worked on the law say they always intended for all obamacare enrollees to get health-insurance subsidies; the law simply wouldn't make sense without them. "the evidence of congressional intent here is overwhelming," john mcdonough, who worked on the health, education, labor & pensions committee during the health-reform debate, wrote in an email. "there is not a scintilla of evidence that the democratic lawmakers who designed the law intended to deny subsidies to any state, regardless of exchange status." as for the language that christina highlighted, they see that as evidence of the health law's rushed passage. nobody corrected the types of drafting errors that a conference committee would typically address. "at the end of the day, this should have never happened and is a product of the rushed way the law was passed," says chris condeluci, who worked as tax and benefits counsel for the senate finance committee's republicans during the affordable care act debate. jon adler can't remember exactly when he came across tom christina's presentation. sometime in late 2010 or 2011, he thinks. adler, a case western university law professor, was preparing to present at a university of kansas conference on the health-care law and was searching online for what others had said on the issue. he listened to the audio from christina's presentation while driving and later clicked through the slides. adler included the point about the subsidies in his february 2011 talk. "it was something i highlighted in my presentation," adler says. "no one seemed particularly disturbed by it." adler wasn't particularly disturbed by it either; like christina, he thought it was an interesting snafu in the law but not much more. he happened to mention the issue to michael cannon, the long-time health-policy director at the libertarian cato institute, over email a few months later. neither adler nor cannon could recall what, exactly they'd been emailing about in the first place. adler didn't care much about health policy; his expertise was in law. but he knew that cannon had spent the past few years testifying before state legislatures about why they shouldn't implement obamacare. so adler mentioned one more argument he could add to his presentation. "he had been talking about how states shouldn't cooperate. and i responded to him with something like, 'if they don't create an exchange, they can't get the tax credits,'" adler recalls. "he said, 'what?' and i told him, 'read the statute.'" "i don't think jonathan understood the significance of the feature when he told me, maybe because he wasn't a health-care wonk who talked about three-legged stools all the time," cannon says. cannon did: he's a health wonk who knew immediately that taking away subsidies would leave obamacare with a giant hole. "what i recognized was that this allowed states to block one of the three legs of obamacare<u+2019>s three-legged stool: the subsidies," he says. "and they could do so in a way that would increase pressure on congress to re-open the law. so i started adding that into my list of reasons states shouldn<u+2019>t establish exchanges." there wasn't much that cannon and adler could do with their discovery at that point. the federal government still hadn't published the rules governing how the insurance subsidies would work; it was still possible that the obama administration might come out and agree with them, saying state exchanges were the only bodies authorized to dole out funds. the obama administration eliminated that possibility in may 2012: as everyone expected, they issued final rules stipulating that all exchanges, both those administered federally and those administered by states, could provide shoppers with help. the search for a plaintiff to challenge the rule was officially on. over the past three years, cannon and adler's argument against obamacare has evolved significantly. for about two years, they and other challengers made a purely textualist argument. the health-care law says, in plain language, that the government can only give financial help to those buying coverage in "an exchange established by the state." put aside congress' cries that they meant for any health-law enrollee to get subsides, this argument goes. the government has to live with the language in the law that it passed <u+2014> and it says that subsidies only go to those enrolled in state-based exchanges. cannon and adler initially thought this way, too. they wrote a wall street journal op-ed calling it a "glitch." but their argument changed in 2012. cannon and his research assistant spent months pouring over every mention of the word "exchange" in the congressional record of the health-law debate. cannon still keeps a thick, black binder with the whole thing in his office. the argument against obamacare has evolved from one about a "glitch" to one over congressional intent that effort, cannon says, convinced him congress expressly intended to use insurance subsidies as a way to entice states into building insurance marketplaces. "if you look at the tax-credit eligibility rules, they are very tightly worded," cannon says. "it<u+2019>s not in one place, but in two places, it says that the credits are only available 'through an exchange established by the state.'" this is where i and others who followed the legislative debate over obamacare have trouble sticking with cannon's version of the events. i covered the drafting of the health law in detail, and in every conversation i ever had with anyone involved, they always believed that congress meant for every state to have subsidies. the whole point of the federal exchanges, after all, was to make sure obamacare worked in states that wouldn't or couldn't build an exchange of their own. congress always meant for residents of all 50 states to have access to financial help. it was never a question, during the five years i've spent writing about obamacare, whether this would be the case. this is where judges, too, have found the challengers' case to be weak. "it is clear," judge roger gregory wrote in the fourth circuit decision against the plaintiffs, "that widely available tax credits are essential to fulfilling the act's primary goals and that congress was aware of their importance when drafting the bill." some king supporters are skeptical of cannon's argument, too. they question whether their efforts are best spent attempting to divine thoughts legislators had five years ago. "i don't think you have to get into that. it's really quite beside the point," says jim blumstein, a law professor at vanderbilt university who has previously worked on health-law litigation. he says that in discussions with some of the king litigants, he's "pushed hard for a focus to be on what the law actually says. the intent is not critical." finding a major flaw in the health-care law was only half the battle for conservatives. they also had to find a plaintiff <u+2014> someone who the law had harmed, who could bring a lawsuit against it. the search for a new obamacare challenger initially went quite poorly. the individual mandate case had failed earlier that summer and, among conservatives, there was lawsuit fatigue. there was no appetite for a lawsuit that appeared to hinge on a drafting error. cannon badgered a half-dozen governors and attorneys general to take the case, especially those who had worked on the individual mandate. he's an energetic speaker with a quick wit and an appetite for a long fight. for much of 2011 and 2012, he was criss-crossing the country to testify before state legislatures (shortly after the birth of his twin daughters, he did switch to doing some testimony via video chat). whether in missouri or maryland, cannon was turning up at governors' doorsteps across the country, urging them that they should not, in any circumstances, help the federal government implement obamacare. now, cannon had a way that he thought republicans could in fact halt obamacare, with a new lawsuit. the problem was, none of them believed him. "i couldn't interest ken cuccinelli or pam bondi," cannon says. "i think i mentioned it to paul lepage. i spoke with rick scott, and he said he was interested but never did anything. phil bryant seemed excited, but no follow through." nothing worked until oklahoma attorney general scott pruitt became interested. he had, like many other republican attorneys general, filed a challenge to the health law's individual mandate. it was still pending at a district court when the supreme court ruled that part of the law constitutional. the judge gave pruitt a choice: he could drop the suit, given the supreme court ruling, or he could amend his complaint to challenge a different part of the law. pruitt chose the latter. on september 9, 2012 <u+2014> two years after the aei presentation and three months after the supreme court ruling <u+2014> his was the first lawsuit to challenge the legality of obamacare's insurance subsidies. initially, conservative health-policy experts hoped that the oklahoma lawsuit would include private citizens challenging the health-care law alongside the government. but the state couldn't scrounge up additional plaintiffs before the deadline to amend its case and ultimately went it alone. this is part of the reason that, six months later, on may 2, 2013, a separate lawsuit arrived in the united states district court for the district of columbia: halbig v. burwell. the competitive enterprise institute, a washington-based think tank, had financed the lawsuit and recruited a plaintiff (jacqueline halbig von schleppenbach, a former bush administration official turned consultant) for the case. the newly filed lawsuit moved slowly. it irked mike carvin, the lawyer on the suit, <u+00a0>enough that he sent the district court's chief justice, royce lamberth, a letter asking him to reassign the case to one his colleagues. so carvin filed yet another lawsuit in virginia, king v. burwell, on september 16, 2013. eventually, one of them had to move. the initial rulings in king and halbig did not go well for carvin: in early 2014, he lost both district court challenges. district of columbia judge paul friedman described the plaintiffs' arguments as "unpersuasive." the virginia judge who ruled in king said the challengers had "no direct support in the legislative history of the aca for plaintiffs' theory that congress intended to condition federal funds on state participation." carvin appealed both decisions. and on july 22, the subsidies argument got its first positive news. in the span of two hours <u+2014> and by pure coincidence <u+2014> the appeals courts for the district of columbia and the fourth circuit issued conflicting rulings. the dc court ruled against obamacare's subsidies; the fourth circuit ruled for them. this was already a good day for the health-care law challengers. the circuit split gave supreme court a stronger reason to step in and resolve the conflict. cei organized an impromptu celebration in its downtown washington offices for that afternoon. as cei's general counsel sam kazman was heading to the party, a co-worker pulled him aside. on his computer, he played a video of mit economist and former white house consultant jon gruber essentially making their main legal argument. "if you<u+2019>re a state and you don<u+2019>t set up an exchange, that means your citizens don<u+2019>t get their tax credits," gruber says in the video, taped at a 2012 speaking appearance. gruber has disavowed the remarks, saying that he spoke "off the cuff" and made a mistake. there's reason to believe him: gruber spoke regularly to dozens of reporters during this period and never mentioned this idea to any of them. so these comments are at odds with the bulk of his work on this issue. but in the video footage, gruber appeared to be providing, at least in part, the evidence the virginia judge said the challengers lacked: proof that congress <u+2014> or at least an outside advisor who worked with congress <u+2014> did intend to condition federal funds on state participation. "it was a holy shit moment," kazman says. "we quickly put it up on our website. it went viral overnight and was the subject of a question at a white house press conference the next day." the supreme court agreed to hear king v. burwell on november 7, 2014. oral arguments occurred on march 4, and a decision is expected in june. the government has, so far, won three of the five court decisions on the subsidies issue. court watchers<u+00a0>thought the oral arguments went well for the administration. the government's argument has remained consistent throughout the process: of course congress meant for all 50 states to have subsidies. if the legislative language is unclear on whether that is the case, then the judicial system ought to give deference to the executive branch in interpreting the law. "during the time the act was under consideration, no member of congress ever suggested that tax credits would be available only in states that established their own exchanges<u+2014>even though the language on which petitioners rely was in draft bills for months before the act was enacted," the government writes in its supreme court brief. "any such suggestion would have produced a firestorm of controversy, but there was none." i've talked to about a dozen legal experts who have followed this case the closest. some of them agree with the challengers' arguments; others don't. but none of them are writing off the case as a superficial challenge to the affordable care act. a slim majority told me that, if they had to place a bet, they would expect the supreme court to rule against the affordable care act. yes, they say, the supreme court did save the affordable care act three years ago by upholding the individual mandate. but the legal issues then were about the law's fundamental constitutionality. if the court had ruled against the mandate, it would have dismantled the law. in this case, the justices may be less likely to view their decision as equally dire: they're simply sending the law back to congress, which would face no constitutional obstacle to changing the law to allow subsidies in all 50 states. when experts survey the court, they see a panel of justices that could react favorably to the textual arguments that the health-law challengers make. and they note that it took at least four justices to agree to hear the case. it only takes one more to create a majority against the health-care law. the idea of five justices finding the challengers' arguments compelling is well within the realm of reality for most observers. "when i read prominent people saying this case was frivolous, i winced a bit," says nicholas bagley, an assistant law professor at the university of michigan who has written extensively on the king challenge. "this is a serious lawsuit. this should make people worry."

the accidental case against obamacare

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federal taxpayers dumped more than $205 million into hawaii's obamacare insurance exchange, but after a steady downward spiral the once-highly praised hawaii health connector is on life support. the federal centers for medicare and medicaid services has already restricted grant funds to the hawaii health connector, after telling officials in march it was out of compliance with the affordable care act because of fiscal instability and ongoing it issues. with state lawmakers also blocking additional funds, the system is struggling to stay afloat. the governor's office said it is doing what it can to salvage the situation, including approving $30 million to temporarily transition the local portal to the federal exchange, healthcare.gov -- where residents could continue to enroll over the next year while problems with the local site are addressed. laurel johnston, deputy chief of staff for gov. david ige, claimed the state will "negotiate the release of federal grant funds" and ensure compliance with the law. whether they will succeed remains to be seen. cms still has to accept the governor's proposal -- and the exchange reportedly is making contingency plans in case the system has to shut down entirely. the drama has only hardened critics' concerns that millions of taxpayer dollars are going to waste. "the $200 million was a complete waste of tax dollars that could have been used for much more productive efforts," said reg baker, a well-known cpa in hawaii who for many years was the chief financial officer for the health insurance plan, hmaa. the news about the hawaii health connector's troubles went national this week when hawaii's largest daily, the star advertiser, broke a story based on a "leaked" draft of the state's report to cms, which reportedly said the exchange prepared a contingency plan to shut down local operations and transition to federal government control by sept. 30. the plan purportedly directed that no new enrollees would be accepted by the local exchange after the end of this week, outreach services would conclude may 31, and a 73-member workforce, including staff and consultants, would be laid off by feb. 28. the governor's office maintained that was just a draft report and said "recent news reports based on confidential working draft documents have misrepresented ongoing discussions between the federal government, the state administration and hawaii health connector." the connector's executive director jeff kissel said the first priority "is to ensure the continuity of coverage for the 37,000 to 40,000 hawaii residents who are receiving health insurance coverage through hawaii health connector." if cms does not accept the governor's plan, hawaii also risks losing $1 billion in matching federal medicaid funds, according to ige's office. baker told foxnews.com the state should just abandon plans to keep the local connector open, and merge with the federal government website. "piggy-backing on the federal system is the financially smart thing to do," he said. while many of the state's democrats praised the obamacare exchange when it launched in october 2013, it was riddled with trouble from the start. the web portal never worked properly despite the state spending $74 million on a contract with cgi to build and maintain it. the exchange experienced tremendous staff turnover, with three executive directors appointed in two years. enrollment reached just over 8,500 in the first year, and as a result, hawaii was ranked the most costly exchange in the nation at more than $$23,899 per person. enrollment never reached the 300,000 number then-gov. neil abercrombie, a democrat, enthusiastically predicted at the opening press conference launching the connector. the enrollment number also never hit 70,000, the minimum needed to stay financially solvent. at its peak, enrollment reached 37,000, a fraction of the state's 1.4 million people. hawaii's uninsured population, at 8 percent when the exchange opened, dropped just 2 percent. "some folks might suggest that the connector was 'successful' because of the 30,000 people who signed up, but those numbers are questionable since many already had insurance to begin with, were transferred to the medicare system or are no longer enrolled, and signups are not as important as the number currently enrolled in the insurance plans offered on the connector," baker said, noting each enrollee cost the federal government about $6,666.66. millions of dollars went to the failed web portal developed by controversial montreal-based company, cgi federal, the same company that developed the botched federal web portal for healthcare.gov under a $93.7 million contract, but was replaced in january 2014 after numerous enrollees had problems registering. besides the fact that hawaii's web portal did not function properly since the site launched, because it didn't sync with the state department of human services website offering medicaid, the site had another major technical problem: the connector's small business health options program targeted at small business owners sent garbled data to insurers preventing them from signing up small businesses and their employees. hawaii is just the latest state that has struggled to sustain its obamacare exchange, at great cost to taxpayers, watchdog group americans for tax reform notes. despite the government investing $4.5 billion into state-run exchanges, oregon, massachusetts, maryland, vermont, new mexico and nevada shut down their operations. "one wonders where these tens of millions of dollars actually go," atr president grover norquist said. baker said the system is failing "for the same reason most businesses fail -- the customers did not see the value of the product they were trying to sell."

hawaii<u+2019>s $205m obamacare system on life support, critics fear <u+2018>complete waste<u+2019>

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the biggest retailer in the world has agreed to boost its u.s. workers<u+2019> pay to $9 an hour, which is $1.75 above the federal minimum wage. walmart announced the wage hike thursday, adding that it expects employees to earn at least $10 an hour by feb. 1, 2016. both full-time and part-time employees will benefit from the increase. the retailer also announced that employees<u+2019> schedules will be set at least 2 1/2 weeks in advance and some workers will be given fixed shifts.

walmart boosts minimum wage to $9/hour

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when the commission on presidential debates on monday finalized its rules for determining which candidates get invited to this fall<u+2019>s headline debates, it suddenly made libertarian dark-horse candidate gary johnson<u+2019>s job a whole lot harder. johnson, a former republican who has been picking up voters disaffected by donald trump, has had his eye on winning a debate slot all summer. though he has conceded that <u+201c>extraordinary things have to happen<u+201d> for him to win, it<u+2019>s the debates that matter for him: if he can get onstage, his strategists think, he has a chance to upset a race that has left a huge number of americans unhappy with their choices. he already knew the threshold for a debate invitation: a 15 percent showing in polls, a hurdle no third-party candidate has overcome since the commission set the bar in the 2000 campaign. johnson harbors hope of being the first. but the combination of the polls the commission just announced it will use to make the cut <u+2014> and the decision of most of the sponsoring media outlets to include both johnson and green party nominee jill stein in those polls <u+2014> effectively made the bar tougher for him to clear. with stein siphoning off some of the anti-establishment vote he<u+2019>s counting on, johnson is probably going to end up watching the debates at home. the selection rules the commission just announced seem reasonable, in one sense, and not obviously designed to undercut a third-party run. it will use polls released by the five major television news networks: abc/washington post, nbc/wall street journal, cbs/new york times, cnn and fox news. these are the same five polls that were used in 2012, except last time gallup was used instead of cnn. (gallup, you may recall, predicted a mitt romney victory in 2012, then published what was dubbed a <u+201c>mea culpa<u+201d> exploring why its likely voter model was so wrong. this election cycle, gallup hasn<u+2019>t done any trial heats, taking itself off the table.) third parties should be further pleased that all of those organizations have been including third-party candidates in their polling. a perennial complaint has been that third-party candidates can<u+2019>t get to 15 percent in polls if they aren<u+2019>t even mentioned in the polls as the campaign develops. but abc/washington post, nbc/wall street journal and cnn have been running four-way trial heats, while cbs/new york times and fox news have done three-way polls that include johnson<u+2019>s name. and upon the commission<u+2019>s announcement, fox news said it would include stein in subsequent polls. that means at least four of the five will include all four candidates. that<u+2019>s what hurts johnson, however. as the former new mexico governor picks up republicans alienated by trump <u+2014> and even picks up some progressives excited about his anti-war, pro-marijuana and civil liberties stances <u+2014> his numbers have been climbing into the range where the debate feels like a possibility. when stein is left out of the polls, johnson isn<u+2019>t far short of the 15 percent bar <u+2014> he hit 12 percent in the last fox news and cbs/new york times polls. (a late july cbs poll, sans new york times sponsorship but using the same pollster, has johnson at 10.) but in the most recent polls from the three media outlets tapped by the commission which have been running four-way trial heats, johnson comes in at 8, 9 or 10, while stein averages 5. johnson performs just a bit worse with stein in the mix, but in the race for 15, every inch counts. and stein, who would need to triple her support to secure an invite, is taking an inch or two from johnson. the bottom line: by including all four candidates, the commission<u+2019>s sanctioned polling outfits are reducing the odds that a third candidate will make the cut. this leaves johnson with a tough strategic choice to make: does he continue to hold himself up as an amiable alternative to the status quo? or does he turn aggressive and start boring into the candidates who are standing in his way: donald trump and jill stein? while both johnson and stein rail against the trump-clinton duopoly, in reality johnson<u+2019>s most immediate opponent is stein, and vice versa. they<u+2019>re each scrambling to claim as much of the small anti-establishment vote as possible. the most recent cnn poll found they both draw from independents, with johnson winning 16 percent of self-identified independent voters and stein 8 percent. they roughly split the pot of bernie sanders voters, as stein takes 13 percent and johnson 10. they also both get a little from disaffected partisans; johnson wins 7 percent of republicans to stein<u+2019>s 3, and johnson edges stein with democrats, 3 percent to 2. yet libertarians have no ground to demand that stein be left out of the polls, since the greens may well get on the ballot in 44 states, breaking the party's record and far exceeding the commission<u+2019>s ballot access requirement. johnson has little recourse but to boost his standing, and fast. he doesn<u+2019>t have much time to make up ground. the commission says it will issue invites <u+201c>after labor day 2016, but sufficiently in advance of the first-scheduled debate [on sept 26] to allow for orderly planning.<u+201d> so he has about a month, give or take. to date, johnson has largely sold himself as a tonic to the status quo. his ads and videos tread lightly on ideology and even lighter on policy prescriptions. for example, in his latest, johnson says to millennials, <u+201c>we may never agree on all the small things, but let<u+2019>s agree on the big thing: both parties have blown it. <u+2026> working together, we<u+2019>ll find fair, sensible and honest solutions.<u+201d> non-ideological platitudes may be enough to win some of the <u+201c>throw the bums out<u+201d> vote. but johnson needs more. he needs to consolidate the left-wing anti-hillary vote and the economically libertarian anti-trump vote. and those two goals are in conflict. he could directly engage green-leaners, employ the issues where he shares common ground with the left and say bluntly: <u+201c>the truth is jill stein is not going to get into the debates, whereas i might, but only with your help. if you stand with me, i will ensure that there is a voice on the main stage calling for an end to the drug war, the abolishment of the nsa and a halt to drone strikes.<u+201d> he could also use the issues where he distinguishes himself on the right, and tell conservatives squeamish about trump but allergic to clinton, <u+201c>the truth is trump is not a conservative, and he<u+2019>s not going to win. he opposes free trade, rejects entitlement reform and supports budget-busting stimulus. give me a shot to beat her. if you stand with me, i will be the only one on the main stage defending the trans-pacific partnership, making the case for raising the retirement age and pledging to balance the budget, without tax increases.<u+201d> johnson hasn<u+2019>t been this pointed on the issues in his advertising, precisely because the issues mentioned above are just a few of the <u+201c>small things<u+201d> on which people vehemently disagree. and he never mentions stein, hoping to silently dismiss her. in one video, johnson says, <u+201c>all this talk about third-party? i<u+2019>m it.<u+201d> but that is simply untrue. he<u+2019>s not the only third-party candidate in the race, and johnson needs to deal with it. it<u+2019>s certainly possible, even likely, that this is a box johnson can<u+2019>t get out of. it<u+2019>s hard to win sufficient support with a thin gruel of non-ideological talking points, and it<u+2019>s also hard with a gumbo of disparate policy specifics. third parties loathe the commission<u+2019>s 15 percent threshold, which was established in 2000. the commission is a private entity, unaccountable to the public, and its chosen number is literally arbitrary. yet it does serve a public purpose. there are only so many debates that more than half of the electorate will sit through. it<u+2019>s legitimate to ask that a candidate prove that he or she truly represents a significant faction of voters before getting such rarified face time, and pulling attention away from the one-on-one contest that is almost certain to decide the presidency. this time around, johnson and stein have been given every opportunity to prove themselves. they have been listed in the polls. they have been given exposure on mainstream media networks <u+2014> johnson has done two cnn prime-time town halls, and stein gets her first on wednesday. both are even outspending one of the major-party candidates in television ads for the first time, since trump has bizarrely refused to spend a dime. but the downside of being included in those polls, and getting those town halls, is that there are no more excuses. if you don<u+2019>t get to 15 percent, it<u+2019>s your own fault.

did gary johnson just get boxed out of the debates?

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republicans face a lot of difficult decisions this year, but for the party to come back strong after donald trump<u+2019>s divisive candidacy <u+2013> for it to keep its brand as the free-market, democracy-loving, opportunity-focused alternative to the democrats <u+2013> the least-worst option is a major loss in the presidential race. by selecting a nominee that does not reflect the usual fiscal policies, a victory for trump will mean a shift in the party<u+2019>s focus. even if the rest of the gop holds fast to the platform or to traditional conservative values, the president<u+2019>s policies always reshape the party. if you have ever promoted a local candidate to voters, you know this is true <u+2013> the public looks at the top of the ticket first and judges the party by that person<u+2019>s views. many trump supporters will see his win as a referendum on their policies and will work to make the party reflect that. fellow republicans will either need to accept that or leave. we have no idea what a trump presidency will look like, but based on his campaign, it will be filled with outrageous gaffes, inarticulate interviews on policy and offensive media blitzes focused on non-issues. trump will most likely lose minorities and women, creating a wider divide that the gop must bridge in the future. many young voters will continue to associate trump with the party long after he leaves office. this would only further damage republicans and set us up for heavy losses in 2018. not to mention the party will continue to hemorrhage its best and brightest. candidates, staff and volunteers have already walked away from trump, and there<u+2019>s no question it will keep happening. if trump gains a greater control of the party, these people might even be forced out. but let<u+2019>s say trump doesn<u+2019>t win and hillary clinton claims the white house. if trump only trails her by a few points, you can bet he will blame the republicans who voted their conscience. or he<u+2019>ll kick up dirt over the <u+201c>rigged<u+201d> system, as he has already alluded to. trump supporters in the party will go on a witch hunt, looking for anyone who acted disloyally to the republican nominee. that in-fighting could destroy the party.

trump campaign woes intensify amid questions over melania's visa <u+2013> as it happened

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the deal tuesday to curb iran<u+2019>s nuclear weapons program came at the end of two years of an intricate ballet involving president obama and the leaders of six other countries. but as the debate moved from the negotiating tables of vienna to the halls of the u.s. capitol, obama faced a new and complicated task: to protect the agreement from opponents who would undermine it in washington over the next two months. <u+201c>i will veto any legislation that prevents the successful implementation of this deal,<u+201d> obama said tuesday. <u+201c>this is not the time for politics or posturing. tough talk from washington does not solve problems.<u+201d> it would take two-thirds of both the house and the senate to override such a veto. most congressional republicans remained deeply skeptical, some openly scornful, of the prospect of relieving economic sanctions while leaving any iranian uranium-enrichment capability intact. and democrats offered only cautious endorsements of the deal that represents a cornerstone of obama<u+2019>s foreign policy as congress begins a two-month review of the agreement. hours after the deal was announced, house speaker john a. boehner (r-ohio) accused obama of abandoning his own objectives for the negotiations and called the agreement <u+201c>unacceptable.<u+201d> <u+201c>it<u+2019>s going to hand a dangerous regime billions of dollars in sanctions relief while paving the way for a nuclear iran,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>if it<u+2019>s as bad a deal as i think it is at this point, we<u+2019>ll do everything we can to stop it.<u+201d> senate majority leader mitch mcconnell (r-ky.) said the deal <u+201c>appears to fall well short of the goal we all thought was trying to be achieved, which was that iran would not be a nuclear state.<u+201d> democratic leaders, meanwhile, mainly offered pledges to closely review the deal rather than outright endorsements. in a morning statement, senate minority leader harry m. reid (d-nev.) called the agreement <u+201c>historic,<u+201d> but he did not address the deal at an afternoon news conference until he was prompted by reporters. <u+201c>my staff hasn<u+2019>t read it; i haven<u+2019>t read it,<u+201d> reid said. <u+201c>let<u+2019>s find out what we have first.<u+201d> house minority leader nancy pelosi (d-calif.) called the deal <u+201c>the product of years of tough, bold and clear-eyed leadership<u+201d> from obama but stopped short of a full endorsement. <u+201c>congress will closely review the details of this agreement,<u+201d> she said. not since george w. bush sought the approval of congress to go to war has a president turned to lawmakers for their support on a matter of such international importance. the congressional review of the deal will proceed according to a framework passed by congress in may and signed into law by obama. it provides for a 60-day review period, during which lawmakers could do nothing and allow the agreement to take effect, vote to approve the deal or vote their disapproval of it. passing a disapproval measure would have to survive the veto that obama promised tuesday. overriding that veto would require a two-thirds vote in both houses <u+2014> with the decisive vote likely to come in the senate, where the republican majority is slimmer. broad republican opposition to the agreement is expected after months of pointed statements and political maneuvering from gop leaders. over obama<u+2019>s objections, boehner invited israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu, a fierce critic of the negotiations, to address congress in march. shortly afterward, 47 of 54 senate republicans signed a letter addressed to iranian leaders that was intended to undermine the talks. [israel blasts iran deal as <u+2018>one of the darkest days in history<u+2019>] at least 13 democratic or independent senators would have to join with republicans to override an obama veto. some democrats expressed pointed skepticism tuesday, starting with sen. robert menendez (n.j.), who co-sponsored the congressional review legislation. in a statement, he said the agreement <u+201c>ultimately legitimizes iran as a threshold-nuclear state<u+201d> and <u+201c>doesn<u+2019>t end iran<u+2019>s nuclear program <u+2014> it preserves it.<u+201d> rep. steve israel (n.y.), the highest-ranking jewish democrat in the house, said he would <u+201c>review every word, sentence and paragraph of the deal to ensure it satisfies my continued concerns.<u+201d> <u+201c>until then,<u+201d> he said, <u+201c>you can continue to count me in the <u+2018>skeptical<u+2019> column.<u+201d> few senate republicans indicated tuesday that they were inclined to vote in favor of the deal. sen. bob corker (r-tenn.), chairman of the senate foreign relations committee, has for months struck a relatively measured tone on the negotiations but said tuesday that the deal amounted to <u+201c>managed proliferation.<u+201d> <u+201c>i would say the agreement has taken a downward trend,<u+201d> he said. corker said he expected to hold hearings over the coming weeks before congress breaks for its august recess but said the votes would probably be held in september <u+2014> giving skeptics crucial weeks to marshal opposition. under the review law, the 60-day clock does not begin until the agreement is officially certified and submitted to congress, but it begins no later than five days after the deal is reached. during the review period, obama is not permitted to relieve any iranian sanctions. [the historic nuclear deal with iran: how it works] lawmakers have laid out a wide array of concerns, including the terms under which international inspectors will be given access to iranian facilities, the pace of sanctions relief, the extent that iranians will be able to continue enriching uranium for peaceful purposes, and the iranian regime<u+2019>s support for terrorist activities in the middle east and beyond. in recent days, there has been close attention to the prospect that a u.n. arms embargo, imposed in 2007 amid international concerns over the direction of the iranian nuclear program, might be lifted. the agreement released thursday set forth a path for the embargo on conventional weapons to be lifted in as little as five years and for those on ballistic missiles to be lifted in as little as eight years. gen. martin dempsey, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, told the senate armed services committee last week that <u+201c>under no circumstances should we relieve pressure on iran relative to ballistic missile capabilities and arms trafficking.<u+201d> lawmakers have seized on dempsey<u+2019>s quote in recent days as it appeared more and more likely that the arms embargo could be eased under the final agreement. <u+201c>who thinks it<u+2019>s a good idea, given the iranians<u+2019> toppling of the mideast, to give them a lifting of the arms embargo that was not even part of the deal?<u+201d> asked sen. lindsey o. graham (r-s.c.) during a morning appearance on msnbc. <u+201c>i would have never done that until they changed their behavior.<u+201d> the announcement of the deal also triggered a wave of criticism from policy experts seeking to sway votes in congress. experts at the washington institute for near east policy took aim at whether components of the deal would be sufficient to ensure iran<u+2019>s compliance and whether access to oil money now frozen in escrow accounts would allow it to make more mischief in the region. <u+201c>while the nuclear issue and iran<u+2019>s support of terrorism are ostensibly distinct, they are in fact implicitly linked,<u+201d> david makovsky and matthew levitt wrote on the group<u+2019>s web site.sen. dianne feinstein (d-calif.) offered one of the most robust defenses of the agreement to be found on capitol hill on tuesday and predicted that, even if congress forced obama to veto a disapproval, it would not be overridden. <u+201c>anything<u+2019>s possible, but i just don<u+2019>t think so,<u+201d> feinstein said. <u+201c>i think people are going to understand that we<u+2019>re in a deteriorating situation in the middle east, and this offers the opportunity to turn the page. .<u+2009>.<u+2009>. you know, nations do change.<u+201d>

on capitol hill, deep skepticism persists as lawmakers react to iran deal

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a few hours before the start of this week's democratic presidential debate in las vegas, the tweets started to pour in. they all had the same, strange hashtag: #feelthechafe, a reference to the #feelthebern bernie sanders supporters were using to rally around their candidate. but it had a snarky twist for lincoln chafee, the former rhode island governor and senator, who's been, so far, a much less popular presidential candidate. by the end of the night, #feelthechafe had gone from being a hashtag twitter assumed was made by chafee supporters, to being one used to soundly ridicule the man: by the next day, the hashtag had even made it to tv, becoming part of a jimmy fallon riff on his late-night show. and a lot of people were asking the same question: who in the world on chafee's team thought that hashtag was a good idea. here's the thing, though: from what we can tell, it was not actually his team's idea. at some point over the last few months, the occasional chafee supporter began using #feelthechafe, seemingly positively. how did it all change? and perhaps an even better question, how did it all start? well, npr found the first person on twitter to actually use the hashtag #feelthechafe when talking about the chafee campaign. that tweet occurred on may 29 of this year, from an account belonging to greg newburn. npr reached out to newburn, to see what inspired him. npr: it seems as if you were the first person on twitter to use the #feelthechafe hashtag in relation to chafee's bid for president. before that, it was used when ladies were talking about working out in yoga pants and stuff. so, talk about that first tweet you did with the hashtag. i think you posted it soon after chafee announced he was running. do you recall that? newman: "yeah, i do recall that. if i recall correctly, that was right around the time that the #feelthebern hashtag was just taking off, among some of bernie sanders' most die-hard and early supporters on twitter. and i follow several of them, so i was familiar with the #feelthebern hashtag. and when lincoln chafee announced, someone tweeted it [his announcement], and it just sort of clicked; it just made sense to me. it was just some sort of throw-away joke, really." do you like lincoln chafee? "oh, i guess, from what i know about him, sure, he doesn't seem like a bad guy. but to tell you the truth, i haven't thought too much about him, one way or the other." when you tweeted the hashtag for that first time, was it meant to be a positive thing, or a negative thing, or just a funny thing? "yeah, it was not negative, nor positive. i thought it was funny, so i tweeted it." who are you supporting for president? "i don't really have a candidate to be honest. i like several of the republican candidates." but not the dem candidates? "no, i don't think i like any of the democratic candidates. jim webb, i guess, a little bit. i'm a republican; i'll probably vote republican." have you been following the #feelthechafe hashtag? "i was shocked at how many people have used it, 'cause, i didn't follow it. like i said, it was a joke. and i tweeted it. i'm not even sure i saw anything about lincoln chafee between the time i tweeted that and then the debate the other night. i don't think i saw him in the news even once. i was surprised to see so many people using it ... i'm just under the assumption that someone else independently came up with the same hashtag, and it took off from there, probably someone with considerably more followers than i have." you've seen what this hashtag has become. it's kind of been used to ridicule this guy. does that make you feel bad? [laughter] "i don't like it when anyone gets ridiculed, i guess. but he's a politician, and he's in the public sphere, so i assume he can handle this type of criticism. and i'm reasonably certain that whatever the intent, it's probably in good fun; it's probably in good faith." if you were in a room with lincoln chafee, and he was like, 'oh hey, you're the guy that did that hashtag,' what would you say to him? "well, i guess it would depend on what his reaction to the hashtag is. i would hope that he would understand that it was all in good fun and certainly not political in any meaningful way. and then i would probably ask him if he supports sentencing reform [newman is the florida state policy director of families against mandatory minimums]. and if he does, i would say, 'yay, thank you!'" if you could do it all over again, and if you knew that your hashtag would take off so much, would you have crafted that tweet differently? "no, i would have written it the same way. i think it's funny." npr also reached out to the chafee campaign, to see what it thought of the hashtag gone wrong. team chafee confirmed it did not start the hashtag, and did not know who did. when we asked if it had been following #feelthebern and how they felt about it, we got this from campaign spokeswoman debbie rich: "governor chafee applauds any political involvement, in general, and the creative attention to his campaign, in particular."

#memeoftheweek: the strange, sad case of #feelthechafe

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after floating a series of ridiculous vice presidential picks, carson was axed from trump<u+2019>s selection team, sources close to the campaign told the daily beast. ben carson has the ability to say everything he shouldn<u+2019>t at exactly the wrong time. since the former neurosurgeon has taken up the role of working on donald trump<u+2019>s vice presidential team, he has suggested that the candidate may pick a democratic running mate, dropped she-who-must-not-be-named sarah palin as a potential pick and earlier generally questioned a number of the presumptive nominee<u+2019>s habits from his twitter use to lack of pragmatism. last week, armstrong williams (his business manager and close confidant), told the daily beast that carson left the team of his own volition. carson had bigger and more important things to do, according to williams, like preparing trump for his meeting with speaker of the house paul ryan. but three sources close to the trump campaign said carson didn<u+2019>t leave on his own. he was pushed. according to sources close to trump<u+2019>s campaign, carson was demoted after trump specifically wanted him to head up the vp selection team. he submitted names that he thought would be valuable picks and inevitably lost his top spot days later. carson allegedly called trump afterwards and was angry that the situation played out like this. in the absence of a person to head up the operation, embattled campaign manager corey lewandowski stepped in and took over the spot, as first reported by the washington post. the daily beast has confirmed that lewandowski is still in charge of the process. the list of names carson later provided to the washington post<u+2014>which included palin, marco rubio, and john kasich<u+2014>was apparently just taken from various conversations within the campaign and is in no way confirmed. one source claimed that carson mentioned the list in order to get retaliation for lewandowski taking his position. <u+201c>well that<u+2019>s part of what lewandowski would want you to believe but there<u+2019>s no truth to that,<u+201d> williams said of the takeover. when asked about any possible rocky relationship with barry bennett, now a trump adviser and carson<u+2019>s former campaign manager, williams said there were no issues there either. and williams doesn<u+2019>t either, not since december at least when bennett exited the campaign after internal disagreements with the business manager who he claimed was causing issues with the struggling presidential bid. despite multiple people familiar with the matter confirming that a conversation took place to demote carson, williams asserted that the relationship between the real estate mogul and the doctor was going swimmingly. <u+201c>dr. carson and mr. trump have a wonderful understanding,<u+201d> williams said. <u+201c>sometimes i along with trump<u+2019>s top people are not always aware of what they are strategizing. [carson] doesn<u+2019>t always share with me. that<u+2019>s a good thing.<u+201d> williams has not always been an entirely reliable source of information about the goings-on inside the trump campaign however. when he told the daily beast that carson was off the vp team, a trump campaign source told cnn that he had <u+201c>fucked it up.<u+201d>

donald trump to ben carson: you<u+2019>re fired<u+2026> from my vp team

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video of a confrontation between a news photographer and protesters at the university of missouri on monday led to a dispute between journalists and the activists<u+2019> sympathizers beyond the campus walls. in response to a series of racial issues at the university, a circle of arm-linked students sought to designate a <u+201c>safe space<u+201d> around an encampment on the campus quad. when they blocked journalist tim tai from photographing the encampment, reporters complained that media were denied access to a public space. certainly, tai <u+2013> like any journalist <u+2013> had a legal right to enter the space, given that it was in a public area. but that shouldn<u+2019>t be the end of this story. we in the media have something important to learn from this unfortunate exchange. the protesters had a legitimate gripe: the black community distrusts the news media because it has failed to cover black pain fairly. as a journalist, i understand how frustrating it is to be denied access to a person or place that<u+2019>s essential to my story. i appeared with other journalists on local media<u+00a0>in new york city to discuss our frustration over mayor bill de blasio<u+2019>s sometimes standoffish attitude towards the press.<u+00a0>he is a public figure whose salary is paid with tax dollars. he is obligated to be accessible to us. [campus racism makes minorities drop out of college. mizzou students had to act.] the student protesters tai encountered, though, didn<u+2019>t owe him anything. they did not represent a government entity stonewalling access to public information. they were not public officials hiding from media questions. they were young people trying to build a community free not only of the racism that has recently wracked mizzou<u+2019>s campus but also of the insensitivity they encounter in the news media: newspapers, web sites and tv commentary had already been filled by punditry telling black students to <u+201c>toughen up<u+201d> and <u+201c>grow a pair.<u+201d> then, in the noisy conversation about first amendment rights that tai elicited, journalists compounded the insult by drowning out the very message of the students tai was covering. as journalists, we should strive to understand the motivations of the people we cover. in this case, black students at the university of missouri have had a string of racist encounters on campus: the president of the students<u+2019> association was<u+00a0>called the n-word and other black students have been racially harassed while participating in campus activities. a missouri journalism professor wrote in the huffington post<u+00a0>that she has been called the n-word <u+201c>too many times to count<u+201d> during her 18 years at the university. in february 2010, black students woke up to cotton balls strewn over on the lawn of the black culture center on campus. the crime, carried out by white students, was designed to invoke plantation slavery. university president tim wolfe resigned monday after graduate student jonathan butler went on a hunger strike and the school<u+2019>s football players boycotted team activities to protest the very public racism he and many black students believe the school did little to address. establishing a <u+201c>safe space<u+201d> was about much more than denying the media access; it was about securing a zone where students<u+2019><u+00a0>blackness could not be violated. yes, the hunger strike, the safe space and other demonstrations were protests, and protests should be covered. but what was fueling those protests was black pain. in most circumstances, when covering people who are in pain, journalists offer extra space and empathy. that didn<u+2019>t happen in this case; these young people weren<u+2019>t treated as hurting victims.<u+00a0>instead, after the confrontation with tai, aggrieved journalists responded with a ferocity usually reserved for powerful entities with the means to inflict lasting damage on their first amendment rights. this wasn<u+2019>t a problem with tai<u+2019>s character or his journalistic integrity; he was doing his job, and his past outstanding work speaks for itself. but in this conversation over <u+201c>public space,<u+201d> we<u+2019>ve overlooked the protesters<u+2019> message <u+2014> that conditions on campus make it an unbearable environment for black students to live and learn in. their approach to creating a safe space should have been better conceived, but reporters should also feel a responsibility to try to understand and respect their pain, instead of rushing to judge them and panicking about an imagined assault on press freedoms. [shooters of color are called <u+2018>terrorists<u+2019> and <u+2018>thugs.<u+2019> why are white shooters called <u+2018>mentally ill<u+2019>?] further, as reporters, we have to drop our sense of entitlement and understand that not everyone wants to be subjects of our journalism. our press passes don<u+2019>t give us the license to bully ourselves into any and all spaces where our presence is not appreciated.<u+00a0>it<u+2019>s one thing to demand access to public lands; it<u+2019>s another to demand access to people<u+2019>s grieving. in many communities that historically have been marginalized and unfairly portrayed by the media, there<u+2019>s good reason people do not trust journalists:<u+00a0>they often criminalize black people<u+2019>s pain and resistance to racial oppression. we saw it in coverage of ferguson and baltimore, when news stations seemed more concerned with the property damage than with the emotional damage that prompted it. though peaceful protests in ferguson had been going on for days, reporters didn<u+2019>t descend on the town in large numbers until there were clashes with police. suddenly, coverage spiked, but most of it was about <u+201c>cars vandalized<u+201d> and <u+201c>buildings burned.<u+201d> on fox news, the channel most watched for ferguson coverage at the height of the unrest, protesters were called <u+201c>thugs.<u+201d> reporting from the protests, cnn<u+2019>s don lemon noted, <u+201c>obviously, there<u+2019>s a smell of marijuana in the air.<u+201d> we heard comparatively little about the residents<u+2019> long-held grievances about police harassment and brutality. the unfair portrayal of black people in the news media is well documented. one study analyzing news coverage by 26 local television stations, black people were rarely portrayed unless they had committed a crime. a 2015 university of houston study found<u+00a0>that this imbalanced coverage may lead viewers to develop racial bias against black people because it often over-represents them in crime rates. recognizing this kind of bias in news media, black twitter users started the #iftheygunnedmedown hashtag to call out news images of mike brown that many felt criminalized him in his death. that black students would be<u+00a0>skeptical of<u+00a0>media is understandable. we<u+2019>ve already seen the kind of headlines they undoubtedly feared. in an atlantic piece headlined <u+201c>campus activists weaponize <u+2018>safe space<u+2019>,<u+201d> conor friedersdorf calls the protesters a mob and insists they are <u+201c>twisting the concept of <u+2018>safe space.<u+2019><u+201d> again, a journalist criminalizes black people for expressing their pain. it was<u+00a0>another piece centering the reporter<u+2019>s privilege over the students<u+2019> trauma.<u+00a0>friederdorf<u+2019>s piece completely ignores the intolerable racial climate that forced the students to establish a safe space in the first place. [black college football and basketball players are the most powerful people of color on campus] there were other ways to cover these students<u+2019> protest without breaching their safe space and without criminalizing them.the human chain students formed provided ample b-roll and still photos. students could have been interviewed outside of that space. i would have pitched a story to my editors with the headline,<u+00a0><u+201c>why black students were forced to secure a safe space on a public campus.<u+201d> <u+00a0>but to do that requires self-reflection and not a condescending, self-absorbed soliloquy about the first amendment. for journalists, the missouri protests are a big news story. for the black students we<u+2019>re covering, however, it<u+2019>s a fight for their humanity and liberation. tai is correct: he was doing his job. but in that stressful moment he may have failed to realize that the space he wanted to enter was a healing one that black people had worked to secure. black pain is not an easy subject to cover, but the lesson we can take from this encounter at missouri is that our presence as journalists, with the long legacy of criminalizing blackness that comes with it, may trigger the same harmful emotions that led to the students<u+2019> protests<u+00a0>in the first place. we used to count black americans as 3/5 of a person. for reparations, give us 5/3 of a vote. don<u+2019>t criticize black lives matter for provoking violence. the civil rights movement did, too. this is what white people can do to support #blacklivesmatter

there<u+2019>s a good reason protesters at the university of missouri didn<u+2019>t want the media around

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when it comes to foreign policy, congress sits in the audience and cheers or boos. but it seldom has any profound effect on the outcome of the action. how snl's 'the bubble' sketch about polarization is all too true speaker of the house john boehner of ohio, pauses while speaking about his opposition to the iran deal during a news conference sept. 9 on capitol hill in washington. even though opponents of the iran nuclear deal can<u+2019>t win in congress, they aren<u+2019>t going to go quietly. 'this debate is far from over, and frankly, it's just beginning,' boehner said on sept. 10. the almost-certain implementation of president obama<u+2019>s iran deal despite heated opposition from most congressional republicans and some democrats is yet more evidence that, when it comes to major decisions of us foreign policy, it is the white house that runs the game. congress sits in the audience and cheers or boos. but it seldom has any profound effect on the outcome of the action. and if anything, the influence of capitol hill on the nation<u+2019>s diplomacy and military action may be declining in today<u+2019>s highly partisan age. it isn<u+2019>t obvious from the nation<u+2019>s founding documents that the competing powers of the branches of government should lead to that result. the constitution gives congress the power to declare war, after all. the senate participates in the ratification of treaties. the power of the purse offers lawmakers a way to try and influence a wide range of foreign policy decisions. but in general, the unitary nature of the presidency allows it to make decisions and react to fast-moving foreign events while the legislature is still debating how to pull its boots on. <u+201c>this is simply an arena of policy that works to the commander-in-chief<u+2019>s advantage,<u+201d> wrote dan drezner, a professor of international politics at the fletcher school of law and diplomacy at tufts university, earlier this year. occasionally, congress has taken command of the nation<u+2019>s diplomacy. after world war i, the senate rejected the treaty of versailles, keeping the us out of the league of nations. in 1999, the senate similarly blocked us accession to the comprehensive test ban treaty. but take the obama administration<u+2019>s bombing campaign against the islamic state. congress hasn<u+2019>t voted to explicitly approve it. instead, the bombing is being conducted pursuant to an authorization of use of force that lawmakers passed in the wake of sept. 11, 2001. both republican and democratic legislators would prefer that not be the case. they would like to move a newer war resolution. but after months of hearings and back-room wrangling they couldn<u+2019>t agree on wording. some wanted to authorize a full use of force, including the possible presence of us military boots on the ground. others had a much narrower vision. so the push for a new resolution has produced nothing. such partisan gridlock has similarly reduced congressional influence on slower-moving foreign developments. the deal to curb iran<u+2019>s nuclear program developed over months of negotiations. almost to a person, congress complains that it should have been tougher. but it became a partisan issue, particularly after house republicans invited israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu to denounce it at a joint meeting of congress. as it became more overtly political, even some democrats with reservations about its requirements lined up behind the white house. eventually congress approved a complicated review process that gave substantial power to the democratic house and senate minorities. for president obama to win, all his party needed to do was maintain just enough cohesion to uphold an expected obama veto of a disapproval resolution. but they won<u+2019>t even have to go that far, apparently. on thursday, senate democrats blocked the gop<u+2019>s effort to reject the deal. a procedural vote on a resolution of disapproval fell two votes short of the 60 needed to proceed. the white house was quick to declare final victory. <u+201c>this vote is a victory for diplomacy, for american national security, and for the safety and security of the world,<u+201d> said mr. obama in a statement. <u+201c>this is a bad deal with decades-long consequences for the security of the american people and our allies. and we<u+2019>ll use every tool at our disposal to stop, slow and delay this agreement,<u+201d> said house speaker john boehner following the senate vote. in truth, it seems to be all over but the suing. some house republicans are urging a lawsuit to try and block the accord. speaker boehner has said that<u+2019>s <u+201c>an option that is very possible.<u+201d> thus the iran deal will stand as a major victory of president obama<u+2019>s second term, perhaps his signature accomplishment. or that designation might go to the administration<u+2019>s reestablishment of diplomatic relations with cuba after more than 50 years. that<u+2019>s another foreign policy move on which congress had little-to-no influence. recognition of governments is something over which the president does have unilateral power. the supreme court affirmed that earlier this year on a 5-to-4 vote, ruling that the white house did not have to give us citizens born in jerusalem the option of listing <u+201c>israel<u+201d> as their place of birth on an american passport. (why was that an issue? it<u+2019>s complicated. for decades, us presidents have said the status of jerusalem must be determined by israeli-palestinian agreement, which needless to say hasn<u+2019>t happened.) this is an issue on which the us must <u+201c>speak with one voice,<u+201d> wrote justice anthony kennedy in the majority opinion. <u+201c>that voice must be the president<u+2019>s.<u+201d> however, there is at least one presidential aspirant who has long said the white house advantage on foreign policy should be rolled back. it<u+2019>s too easy for the oval office to drag the us into misbegotten wars, in this person<u+2019>s view. congress should resume its rightful role as the check and balance on the nation<u+2019>s overseas adventures, he says. <u+201c>one hopes congress <u+2013> both republicans and democrats <u+2013> can regain the wisdom to reassert the authority that was so wisely given to it so many years ago,<u+201d> he wrote in 2013 in a lengthy national interest piece on the subject. that would be former sen. jim webb of virginia, who served as secretary of the navy in the reagan administration and later opposed the bush administration<u+2019>s invasion of iraq.

iran nuclear deal: why white house rules foreign policy

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president barack obama<u+00a0>said<u+00a0>saturday night that congress should not shut down the federal government at the end of the month over a<u+00a0>dispute that involves funding for planned parenthood, describing such a move as a <u+201c>self-inflicted wound that we<u+2019>ve seen before on our economy.<u+201d>

obama argues against goverment shutdown over planned parenthood

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opinions about the supreme court<u+2019>s legitimacy and value usually depend on ideology. conservatives shouted tyranny after the supreme court upended bans on same-sex marriage. liberals were outraged when the court overturned campaign finance limitations in the citizens united ruling and gutted the voting rights act in the shelby county case. but absent the ideological scoreboard, how can we judge the merit of the court? is judicial review of laws the best way to avoid political influence? or is major change more lasting and accepted when it<u+2019>s accomplished legislatively?

is the supreme court too powerful? - room for debate - nytimes.com

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this item has been updated. house republicans voted wednesday to undo years of president obama's immigration policies, launching a fresh attack on his executive actions as part of a plan to renew funding for the department of homeland security. but in doing so, republicans exposed fresh rifts in their expanded ranks as more than two dozen members, mostly from suburban districts in swing states, voted against plans to end a program granting temporary legal status to hundreds of thousands of <u+201c>dreamers<u+201d> <u+2014> or children brought to the country illegally by their parents who have served as the emotional centerpiece of the years-long debate. house approval of the spending bill is just the opening act in a debate expected to stretch into late february, when homeland security expires. legal challenges to obama<u+2019>s immigration orders, led by republican state attorneys general, are underway. a senior gop lawmaker suggested wednesday that house and senate leaders might also file suit. the bill passed 236 to 191 with the support of two moderate democrats. but 10 republicans voted against the final bill. earlier, 26 republicans <u+2014> including several new members from suburban districts around chicago, las vegas, miami and philadelphia <u+2014> joined democrats in voting against a proposal to end obama<u+2019>s deferred action for childhood arrivals program. rep. mario diaz-balart (r-fla.), a veteran miami republican who was among those to vote against the bill and the daca amendment, said that his party won't be able to settle the immigration fight until it negotiates a bipartisan compromise with obama. <u+201c>regardless of what happens this week, this month, on this issue, it will not make the issue itself go away,<u+201d> he said. but rep. robert aderholt (r-ala.) said he was encouraged by the strong support the bill received from fellow republicans. he was lead author of an amendment that would effectively invalidate the executive actions taken by obama in november and his policy instructing federal immigration officers to focus their efforts on deporting illegal immigrants with criminal backgrounds. the amendment passed with gop support. <u+201c>it was a strong vote. i think it sends a message to the senate as it goes forward. and we're optimistic about it,<u+201d> he said. in the wake of terrorist attacks in france last week, republicans have faced criticism from obama and congressional democrats for delaying swift passage of new security funding. some party leaders and operatives also worry that the aggressive nature of the bill will once again spoil gop attempts to appeal to hispanic and asian voters in the 2016 president election. but gop congressional leaders have said that the legislation is designed only to respond to obama's "executive overreach." "we do not take this action lightly, but there is simply no alternative,"<u+00a0>speaker john a. boehner (r-ohio) said ahead of the vote as he recounted the 22 times he said obama has raised doubts about his ability to change immigration policy through presidential powers. "enough is enough," he added later. the white house denounced the house vote, saying republicans were putting homeland security funding, training and long-range planning at risk. obama<u+2019>s top domestic policy adviser, cecilia mu<u+00f1>oz, reiterated obama<u+2019>s threatened veto. the house gop <u+201c>is interested in debating immigration but only interested in debating it if they undo the most significant and constructive actions that have taken place in many years,<u+201d> she said in a conference call with reporters. republicans are doing nothing on immigration that would <u+201c>move the country forward.<u+201d> gil kerlikowske, the commissioner of u.s. customs and border protection, said obama<u+2019>s executive actions are aimed at allowing the department to focus resources on deporting illegal immigrants who have committed felonies or have terrorist ties, rather than those who are living in the country illegally but do not break other laws. <u+201c>prioritization is critical for any law enforcement agency,<u+201d> he said. while 218 republicans voted for the amendment ending daca, the "no" votes came from newly-elected reps. bob dold (r-ill.) from the chicago suburbs; cresent hardy (r-nev.) from the las vegas suburbs; ryan costello (r-pa.) and tom macarthur (r-n.j.) from the philadelphia suburbs; carlos curbelo (r-fla.), who represents a miami-area district; martha mcsally (r-ariz.), who won her election by fewer than 200 votes; and rep. john katko (r-n.y.) from an upstate new york district that has switched parties several times in recent years. they were joined by senior republicans in their state delegations, including florida's mario diaz-balart and ileana ros-lehtinen; adam kinzinger of illinois; new jersey's chris smith and frank lobiondo; new york's chris gibson, richard hanna and peter king; pennsylvania's patrick meehan and charlie dent; and nevada's mark amodei and joe heck. other members, including reps. jeff denham (r-calif.), devin nunes (r-calif.), david valadao (r-calif.), fred upton (r-mich.) and mike coffman (r-colo.), also voted no. in the senate, republicans control 54 seats, but 60 votes will be needed to advance the bill, and no democratic senator has expressed support for it. the impasse means republican leaders will need to negotiate a watered-down bill that can earn democrat support, pass the senate and be sent back to the house before current homeland security funding expires on feb. 27. if republicans fail to block obama's immigration policies through legislation, house and senate leaders may team up on a new federal lawsuit challenging him, house judiciary committee chairman bob goodlatte (r-va.) said wednesday. noting that several states are now challenging obama's immigration actions in court, he said a similar suit might be brought by gop lawmakers in the house and senate. "no decision has been made about that," he said, at a reporter breakfast hosted by the christian science monitor, adding that it's likely to be the subject of talks at a two-day gop policy retreat that begins thursday at a conference center in hershey, pa. "congress has the right to write the laws and appropriate funds to programs under article i of the constitution, and if we are successful in using that legislation and make it clear that there is no legal authority for the president<u+2019>s actions, then we don<u+2019>t need to get to litigation," he added. sean sullivan and david nakamura contributed to this report.

house votes to block obama<u+2019>s immigration actions <u+2014> but exposes new gop divisions

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hillary clinton won at least four of five primaries on tuesday, pushing her closer to the democratic presidential nomination as her considerably weakened rival bernie sanders vowed to press on with his insurgent campaign. clinton won big in florida, north carolina and ohio, while claiming a narrower victory in illinois. missouri remained too close to call. sanders<u+2019>s campaign had hoped his raw message of economic justice would prevail in the industrial heartland. but with her victories, clinton was on track to collect a large share of the more than 1,000 delegates she still needed to lock up the contest. sanders ended the day further behind in the delegate count <u+2014> and needing to win a slew of upcoming states by improbably large margins. <u+201c>we are moving closer to securing the democratic party nomination and winning this election in november,<u+201d> clinton said at her victory party here tuesday. as if to prove the point, she quickly pivoted to the republican front-runner, donald trump. <u+201c>our next president has to be ready to face three big tasks: first, can you make positive differences in people<u+2019>s lives? second, can you keep us safe? third, can you bring our country together again?<u+201d> clinton<u+2019>s indictment of trump<u+2019>s policy positions sounded like a preview of arguments to come. <u+201c>when we hear a candidate for president call for the rounding up of 12 million immigrants, banning all muslims from entering the united states, when he embraces torture, that doesn<u+2019>t make him strong, it makes him wrong,<u+201d> clinton said. clinton has been eager to refocus her campaign to confront trump more directly. but asked tuesday if she was concerned that a protracted primary fight with sanders would hobble democrats ahead of the contest against a republican nominee, she declined to encourage sanders to leave the race. her campaign emailed a fundraising pitch tuesday evening warning of the dangers of a trump presidency and of complacency among democrats. <u+201c>tonight, donald trump could become the presumptive republican nominee for president,<u+201d> the donation request began. too many republicans tried to ignore him until it was too late, it said. <u+201c>it<u+2019>d be easy for us democrats to do the same thing now <u+2014> trump is so offensive, so vulgar, so self-evidently awful. you could look at him and think, <u+2018>there<u+2019>s no way he<u+2019>ll ever get elected,<u+2019> and then just wish him away. but we can<u+2019>t.<u+201d> sanders held a rally before about 7,000 people in phoenix on tuesday night, a week ahead of arizona<u+2019>s primary. he said his campaign had <u+201c>defied all expectations<u+201d> but made no mention of the three states that had already been called in clinton<u+2019>s favor. <u+201c>what excites me so much as i go around the country is to see the incredible energy of people who love this country but know we can do so much better,<u+201d> sanders said to loud screams. in a statement several hours later, sanders vowed to fight on, saying: <u+201c>with more than half the delegates yet to be chosen and a calendar that favors us in the weeks and months to come, we remain confident that our campaign is on a path to win the nomination.<u+201d> some of his die-hard supporters expressed hope that he could still pull out the nomination. <u+201c>i still think the revolution is coming,<u+201d> said james homan, 55, a sound engineer for rock musicians, who has homes in illinois and arizona. homan expressed frustration that, as he saw it, <u+201c>the fix was in<u+201d> for clinton among democratic party leaders, but he said he could see paths for sanders to prevail, including the possibility of more fallout from the fbi investigation into clinton<u+2019>s use of a private email server while she was secretary of state. democratic primary voters were split on the candidates<u+2019> key attributes, with clinton seen as more electable and sanders as more honest, according to preliminary exit polls reported by abc news. by roughly 2 to 1, voters across ohio, north carolina, florida, illinois and missouri said clinton had a better chance than sanders of beating trump in a general-election matchup. but roughly 8 in 10 said sanders was honest and trustworthy, compared with about 6 in 10 who felt that way about clinton. sanders has dominated among honesty-focused voters all year, while clinton has won by a wide margin those who care more about electability. sanders, an independent senator from vermont, had scored an upset victory last week against clinton in michigan and saw tuesday<u+2019>s contests as a chance to pull off more come-from-behind wins in states where voters feel damaged by globalization. repeating his playbook from michigan, sanders hit clinton hard on her past support for <u+201c>disastrous<u+201d> trade deals, starting with the north american free trade agreement when her husband was in the white house. after clinton<u+2019>s loss in michigan called her economic message into question, her campaign moved to retool her stance on trade by strengthening her opposition to the trans-pacific partnership and emphasizing support for manufacturing in her jobs plan. in ohio, clinton took specific aim at elements of the pending trade package seen as harmful to the auto and steel industries. just over half of ohio democratic primary voters said free trade takes away u.s. jobs, according to the early exit polls. in michigan, sanders won among voters with that view by double digits. the anti-trade cohort was slightly larger in michigan (57<u+00a0>percent) than in most states voting tuesday, with less than half of democrats in illinois, missouri and north carolina saying trade costs u.s. jobs. <u+201c>i lost my house when the stock market crashed,<u+201d> said williams, a member of the local cement finishers union. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m an angry voter, how <u+2019>bout that? i<u+2019>m angry about the way the country is working for the blue-collar worker. hillary gets a big, fat zero on that.<u+201d> in missouri, sanders aides were optimistic in part because much of the state closely resembles kansas, where the senator easily defeated clinton in the democratic caucuses early this month. it<u+2019>s worth noting, however, that missouri was the smallest of the democratic delegate prizes tuesday. before the polls closed in missouri, clinton<u+2019>s campaign announced that she had been endorsed by the mother of michael brown, the teenager whose 2014 shooting by police in ferguson, mo., brought more attention to officer-involved slayings of unarmed black men. multiple polls in the days leading up to tuesday<u+2019>s contests showed sanders closing in on clinton in the three states in the industrial midwest. in chicago, where clinton spent her childhood, sanders sought to leverage support from voters disenchanted with the tenure of the city<u+2019>s embattled democratic mayor, rahm emanuel, a clinton ally. emanuel<u+2019>s approval ratings have dropped to all-time lows amid controversies over a police shooting and school closings, and his popularity with african american voters has taken an especially big hit. in the closing days of the race, sanders blasted emanuel<u+2019>s decision to close schools in predominantly black and latino neighborhoods, and sanders ran television ads featuring some of the mayor<u+2019>s critics. and tuesday, sanders had breakfast with cook county commissioner jes<u+00fa>s <u+201c>chuy<u+201d> garc<u+00ed>a, who ran unsuccessfully for mayor against emanuel in the democratic primary last year. clinton<u+2019>s lead in florida was never in doubt, and she ended up capturing almost the same number of votes as the republican winner, trump <u+2014> perhaps a preview of how competitive the state will be in november. florida posed several challenges for sanders. it held a closed primary, meaning independent voters, who have propelled him to victory in other states, were not allowed to participate. the state<u+2019>s voting population also includes a large number of older voters, who have sided with clinton in previous contests. sanders<u+2019>s aides have argued that the back half of the nominating calendar is more favorable to him, with several potential victories in the west and no contests remaining in the deep south, which has been clinton<u+2019>s strongest region by far. sanders thinks he is well-positioned in all three states with contests next tuesday: arizona, idaho and utah. his decision to spend election night in arizona signaled his intention to vigorously contest that state in the coming week.

clinton takes four states, giving a big boost to her delegate total

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lessig says that his sole mission as president would be to persuade congress to pass the citizen equality act, which would implement three reforms to the political system. first, it would guarantee the <u+201c>equal right to vote<u+201d> by enhancing the power of the federal government to control how states conduct elections, requiring states to provide for online or automated voter registration, and shifting election day to a national holiday. second, it would guarantee <u+201c>equal representation<u+201d> by banning gerrymandering of districts. lessig also endorses an idea called <u+201c>ranked-choice voting,<u+201d> where voters rank the candidates rather than vote for just one. the candidate who receives the highest aggregate ranking wins. (you can find the somewhat complicated details here .) third, it would provide for <u+201c>citizen-funded elections.<u+201d> all voters would be given vouchers that they could use to contribute to political campaigns, and small contributions would be matched from public funds. rules blocking government officials from becoming lobbyists would be strengthened. would these reforms give us <u+201c>citizen equality<u+201d>? unfortunately, if money goes to the root of the problem, as lessig says, these reforms would have little impact. in the best case, they would enhance the popular vote in elections by a little bit. they might enhance by a small amount cash contributions from low-income people. and republican-dominated state legislatures would lose some of their power to create safe seats. but in the economy of political influence that lessig describes in his book, none of these things can make much difference. most americans are terribly uninformed about the political process and rely on very crude proxies (such as endorsements or partisan identification) to determine how to vote. many people fail to vote not because of barriers to voting but because they<u+2019>d rather spend their time doing something else. candidates who suited voters a bit better because of ranked-choice voting (assuming it works as advertised) and who received more small donations from low-income people would still need to rely on well-informed lobbyists with whom they had relationships and would still benefit from massive infusions of cash from big business. lessig<u+2019>s cure just doesn<u+2019>t follow from his diagnosis. the current disaffection with the government probably reflects the ideological polarization of the electorate, which is an input, not an output, of the political process. people disagree with one another more than in the past, so<u+2014>whatever compromises the government reaches over policy<u+2014>they are more likely to be unhappy with it. if people feel that they have no influence on political outcomes, that<u+2019>s in part because we live in a huge and diverse country, and so even in an ideal system where your vote counts as much as anyone else<u+2019>s, it<u+2019>s just one of more than a hundred million. so there is a mismatch between lessig<u+2019>s means<u+2014>a dramatic run for office as an unprecedented <u+201c>referendum president<u+201d> who resigns as soon as his mandate is legislated<u+2014>and his goal, which is at best incremental reform. in the past, he has argued with a great deal more persuasiveness that the only way to reform the political system is through a constitutional convention, and it is easier to see the logic of this position than to understand his campaign goals. constitutional amendments really could go to the root of the problem<u+2014>by limiting campaign contributions (and thus overturning citizens united, which held that the first amendment banned certain limits on political expenditures), restructuring the senate (which is a highly unrepresentative body that favors rural interests), limiting the power of the supreme court, and perhaps creating a parliamentary system or something like it, which would avoid the twin problems of gridlock and presidential abuse of power that have long been troubling features of our system of separation of powers. but most calls for constitutional conventions come these days from conservatives, who want to impose a balanced budget on the federal government and who have no interest in adopting lessig<u+2019>s electoral reforms<u+2014>nearly all of which would benefit the democratic party in the short term. and the results of a constitutional convention<u+2014>where moneyed interests as well as all kinds of interest groups would play a big role<u+2014>are unpredictable. well, not entirely unpredictable. under the amendment process of the constitution, state legislatures can play an important role in selecting delegates and ratifying amendments. and while there is a means to circumvent their formal participation, they would probably influence the outcome. this matters. republicans have vastly more control over state legislatures than democrats do<u+2014>in part because of the gerrymandering lessig wants to end<u+2014>so we can be pretty certain about the ideological tilt of any amendments that might ultimately be ratified, if not their content. this is probably why lessig has not adopted his earlier proposal of a constitutional convention to his presidential run. the rot goes too deep. but it also should raise doubts about whether the citizen equality act can do any good. even if lessig can<u+2019>t win, or can<u+2019>t do much more than hand over the reins to his vice president if he does win, his candidacy would bring a rare level of intelligence and political sophistication to the election and much-needed attention to the problem of electoral reform. for that reason, you might donate a little money to his campaign. i did.

this man wants to become president, pass one law, and resign

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on this day in 1973, j. fred buzhardt, a lawyer defending president richard nixon in the watergate case, revealed that a key white house tape had an 18...

behind the biden hype

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(cnn) the two presidential front-runners are both eyeing super tuesday 2 as a chance to build on their momentum and pad their leads as they look to put the races away by the end of the month. and donald trump will try to run the table, with four republican contests on tap. he leads in michigan, and has done well in southern states like mississippi. idaho and hawaii vote tuesday as well, a chance to pick up more delegates. here's what to watch in the day's elections: time is running out for trump's opponents to turn things around before the winner-takes-all states start to vote and the gop front-runner racks up enough delegates to lock the nomination up before the convention. trump leads the polls in michigan, the crown jewel of tuesday's contests. mississippi, meanwhile, will test whether cruz's surge in louisiana -- he closed a massive polling gap and finished within four points on saturday -- expands to other southern states, or trump can finish running the table in the deep south. idaho could be better ground for cruz, who has spent more time in the state than other candidates. all three states, though, pose problems for rubio. mississippi and michigan each require candidates to reach 15% to accumulate delegates. idaho requires candidates to top 20%. the stronger trump and cruz run, the tougher it becomes for rubio to make any gains at all. what about the late deciders? rubio has a history of doing well with "late deciders" -- voters who make up their minds in the last week. he picked up 39% of those voters in virginia, for example, according to exit polls. but those voters, polls have shown, typically make up less than one-third of a state's electorate. in michigan, a monmouth university poll showed 23% of voters were undecided or only had a slight preference in the days leading up to the primary. and supporters of trump, polls have shown, tend to be more locked-in on their candidate than supporters of rubio. what tuesday's contests could demonstrate is whether there's enough late movement to help trump's rivals -- particularly since the week leading up to the debate featured the most explosive republican debate yet. for clinton, michigan will put that claim to the test. she's increasingly eager to turn her attention to the general election -- and to do that, clinton needs to turn the tide with white voters, and particularly run up her advantage among women. she has performed better in those demographics since sanders won in new hampshire just over a month ago, and michigan is a good bellwether for clinton. it's a heavily-populated, diverse state that democrats absolutely have to have in order to win the general election in november. "given the terrible pressures that the auto industry was under and that the middle class of this state and ohio and indiana and illinois and wisconsin and missouri and other places in the midwest were facing, i think it was the right decision to heed what president-elect obama asked us to do," she added. "you were either for saving the auto industry or against it. i voted to save the auto industry and i'm very glad that i did." a victory in michigan could set clinton up for a huge march 15 -- when florida, ohio, illinois, north carolina and missouri vote. if sanders can't win michigan, he might not be able to win any of those states. a clinton loss, though, means missouri, ohio and potentially illinois could be in play. so imagine this scenario: kasich beats rubio in michigan. then, on march 15, kasich wins his 66-delegate, winner-take-all home state of ohio, and rubio loses his 99-delegate, winner-take-all home state of florida. suddenly, kasich would become the leading moderate, establishment-type republican in the race -- and rubio would lack a path forward. there are a lot of "ifs" for that to happen. but for kasich to stand any chance of turning what's been a smaller-scale campaign that's been much choosier about where he tries to compete into one with a real shot at quickly racking up delegates, michigan is where it has to start. winning ohio could help kasich play a small role in denying trump the delegates he needs to win the gop nomination outright. but to have a shot at the nomination himself, kasich has to win the midwest -- states like michigan, illinois, indiana and wisconsin, which have similarly-styled republican governors and are often general election battlegrounds.

primary election: what to watch on super tuesday 2

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today, september 8, i am holding a prayer vigil and rally for liberty in grayson, kentucky. i will call on judge david bunning to release kim davis on the grounds that her right to religious liberty has been grossly violated under the constitution of these united states of america. when i warned that the supreme court<u+2019>s decision on marriage would lead to the criminalization of christianity in america i was dismissed by many as an alarmist and my comments were mocked by the chattering class. now, just two months after the court's lawless ruling, an elected county clerk has been put in jail by an unelected judge for refusing to issue a<u+00a0><u+201c>marriage" license to a same-sex couple, removing all doubts about criminalization of christianity in this country. when the people of kentucky elected<u+00a0>democrat<u+00a0>kim davis as county clerk, the state<u+2019>s constitution affirmed that marriage is between one man and one woman. the amendment passed with 75 percent of the people<u+2019>s vote. today,<u+00a0>i ask on behalf of kim: <u+201c>under what law is she authorized to issue homosexual couples a marriage license?<u+201d> can you site the specific right in the constitution? <u+00a0>is there a statute, passed by congress that actually says that the five unelected lawyers in the majority of the court<u+2019>s opinion were right to throw out the very definition of marriage and make up one on their own? in the<u+00a0>obergefell<u+00a0>decision, the supreme court ruled same-sex couples have the right to get married. whether you personally agree with that or not doesn't<u+00a0>matter in kim<u+2019>s case. what does matter, is that<u+00a0>the supreme court cannot and did not make a law. it only made a ruling on a law. kim's stand for religious liberty is a pivotal moment in our nation's history. will we continue to pretend as though the supreme court is the "supreme branch" with the authority<u+00a0>and ability to<u+00a0>make laws? it most certainly is not. the supreme court is one of three co-equal branches of government under our constitution. it is no more the "supreme branch" than it is the "supreme being" with the authority to redefine the laws of nature or of nature's god! what we know for sure is that<u+00a0>the judicial branch<u+00a0>is constitutionally prohibited from writing laws, there are religious liberty protections in the kentucky constitution and kentucky statute and the plaintiffs in the case did not seek kim<u+2019>s<u+00a0>incarceration.<u+00a0><u+00a0>despite these facts, kim<u+00a0>davis was thrown in jail for contempt, which means she was given no possibility of bail. that seems even more ludicrous when you consider<u+00a0>many of the america's most evil and notorious serial killers, murderers, rapists, mafia bosses and presidential assassins<u+00a0>were actually<u+00a0>let out on bail: all of these dangerous criminals were given bail. <u+00a0>a democrat county clerk in kentucky who is a christian was not. no one went to jail when san francisco mayor gavin newsom ordered city clerks to issue same-sex marriage licenses in direct disobedience to california law. more recently,<u+00a0>no one went to jail when san francisco was set up as a sanctuary city <u+2013> sheltering dangerous illegal immigrant felons in defiance of federal law. not only did newsom<u+00a0>not go to jail, he<u+2019>s now the lieutenant governor of the state! i am appalled at our government<u+2019>s willingness to accommodate the religious beliefs of all religions,<u+00a0> <u+00a0>christianity. when i traveled to guantanamo bay, i was amazed by<u+00a0>how well<u+00a0>we treated foreign muslim terrorist detainees. the u.s. government provides prayer mats and special meals that conform to islamic restrictions, but we can<u+2019>t accommodate the religious beliefs of a popularly elected christian county clerk in kentucky? we have lost our moral compass as a country when our government accommodates<u+00a0>militant<u+00a0>muslims but not conservative christians. as a governor for ten and a half years, i followed the constitution of my state and of the united states. the rule of law is a foundation of our democracy. but the reason why our laws are respected by the american people is because our constitution guarantees reasonable safeguards to protect the rights of dissenters. i refuse to sit silently as our constitution is torched and the courts violate our fundamental rights. we did not fight a revolution against the tyranny of one unelected monarch so we could surrender our freedoms and abandon our constitution<u+00a0>to the tyranny of five unaccountable, unelected lawyers. this shredding of the most fundamental civil rights of our citizens cannot stand. i will fight for, and protect, the religious liberty of every american. this will go down as a seminal moment in american history if we do not free kim davis now and make sure this never happens again. former arkansas governor mike huckabee was a 2016 republican candidate for president of the united states.

kim davis's right to religious liberty has been grossly violated

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new york -- donald trump seemed to help his case after meeting with hundreds of evangelical leaders in times square on tuesday.<u+00a0> he's going to need that crucial voting bloc to have a real shot at winning the presidency. from mega-church pastors to longtime stalwarts, they heard trump speak out about defending religious liberty, including his desire to get rid of irs restrictions that muzzle<u+00a0>political talk from the pulpit. trump said a repeal may be "my biggest contribution to christianity." <u+00a0> in that room, among the 900 or so evangelical leaders, there were quite a few who were not for trump going into the meeting. after the meeting some minds seemed to change. <u+00a0> "the ball has moved forward a little bit. and i appreciate mr. trump's willingness to reach out to the evangelical community," said matt barber, founder and editor-in chief of barbwire.com. <u+00a0> "after hearing him today, i will prayerfully consider it as a possibility, in light of the alternative," reflected barber. <u+00a0> that alternative is hillary clinton. trump made clear his supreme court picks would make them proud, unlike what clinton might bring to the table. trump also talked about how evangelicals need to band together because their rights and values are under attack. what pleased some attendees was that trump didn't appear to make any major mistakes or give reason for pause. <u+00a0> "i can't remember any time during the several hours this morning that his answer disappointed or that there was chagrin about it," recalled gary bauer, president of american values. <u+00a0> trump's senior adviser, sarah huckabee, also attended the event. <u+00a0> "he did something that most republican nominees in the past have refused to do and that's walk into this room and be willing to sit down, take their questions and really interact with them in a very big way," huckabee told cbn news. <u+00a0> with some evangelicals still wary, the brash outsider will need more outreach, but for now at least, it seems to be working. <u+00a0> "as it pertains to the evangelical vote and the candidacy of donald j. trump, today's meeting may very well be a tipping point," predicted rev. samuel rodriguez, president of the national hispanic christian leadership conference. <u+00a0> <u+00a0> a pro-family leader, rodriguez says he knew plenty of pastors who were skeptical before the meeting, but inside, something changed, he said. <u+00a0> "after hearing his commitment, his very well-defined, articulated commitment to religious liberty and life, the supreme court especially, i think you saw a number of the same pastors walk out going, 'that's what i needed to hear," rodriguez said. <u+00a0> and that's something the trump campaign needed to hear after a rough few weeks of headlines. it will be important for them to build on any progress here by getting evangelicals to move beyond words and work actively for trump among their flocks.

evangelicals sing a new tune on trump: 'meeting may be a tipping point'

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when ted cruz came to the senate in 2013, after winning a squeaker of a senate race the previous november, he didn<u+2019>t waste any time in bringing himself to national attention. it wasn<u+2019>t his style to use his freshman term to keep his head down and learn the ropes.<u+00a0> just seven weeks after being sworn in, cruz made a name for himself by accusing fellow republican chuck hagel of taking money from communist north korea during his confirmation hearings for secretary of defense. this accusation startled virtually everyone and earned cruz a rebuke from committee chairman john mccain. senator barbara boxer drew an apt analogy when<u+00a0>she said<u+00a0>she was reminded of <u+201c>a different time and place, when you said, <u+2018>i have here in my pocket a speech you made on such-and-such a date,<u+2019> and of course there was nothing in the pocket.<u+201d> she was alluding, of course to the notorious senator joseph mccarthy. as<u+00a0>jane mayer reported in the new yorker at the time, this was not hyperbole. she had personally heard cruz claim that the harvard school of law had harbored a dozen communists on the faculty when he was a student there: within seven weeks of becoming senator, cruz was a national figure who was being compared to one of the most reviled figures in american politics. he was often compared to mccarthy from that point forward, even including the likes of conservative<u+00a0>david brooks, who found him to be quite a distasteful character: the more establishment figures like mccain and brooks loathed him, the more the right wing of the party loved him. he became a backroom<u+00a0>advisor<u+00a0>to the <u+201c>freedom caucus<u+201d> in the house and<u+00a0>he led the charge to shut down the government<u+00a0>in 2013. many on the right<u+00a0>attribute their victory<u+00a0>in 2014 to his strategic leadership. when he threw his hat in the ring for president, the conventional wisdom was that he was a fringe player along the lines of michele bachmann in 2012 and was assumed to be so unpopular within the party that he couldn<u+2019>t possibly raise any money. and even if he could <u+00a0>overcome those obstacles he had such a repellant personality that nobody in their right mind would vote for him for president. he was, after all, the reincarnation of joseph mccarthy, a man whose name is synonymous with political paranoia. that doesn<u+2019>t seem to be happening. in fact, cruz has shown himself to be a disciplined campaigner and a strategic thinker, managing the rough and tumble of this weird gop primary campaign better than any of his rivals. he<u+2019>s fended off attacks with aplomb and doesn<u+2019>t seem to have been hurt by them. and as<u+00a0>dave weigel reported yesterday<u+00a0>in the washington post, he has not trimmed his ideological sails in the least: one questioner asked about the alleged influence of the trilateral commission and david rockefeller, two bugbears of conspiracy theorists. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s a very good question,<u+201d> said cruz, pivoting to discuss the medellin national sovereignty case, which is featured in some of his tv ads here. another questioner asked whether the federal reserve was constitutional, prompting a short monologue by cruz about why america should return to the gold standard. and another questioner asked about the potential threat of muslim courts issuing their own sharia-based rulings within the united states. <u+201c>under no circumstances should sharia law be enforced anywhere in this country,<u+201d> cruz said. <u+201c>we should do whatever it takes to prevent that.<u+201d> it doesn<u+2019>t get any more hardcore than that. but cruz has done something else that hasn<u+2019>t been noticed by most of the press corps. he<u+2019>s lost that joe mccarthy countenance, and many of his harsh edges have softened. he<u+2019>s given one on one interviews in which he told personal stories that humanized him. he<u+2019>s lightheartedly sparred with trump and others on social media batting back criticisms with clever<u+00a0>bon mots<u+00a0>instead of engaging in combat. the christmas ad that caused such a ruckus when<u+00a0>a washington post cartoonist portrayed his daughters as monkeys<u+00a0>only served to introduce the two darling moppets to many more people than would otherwise have seen them. and rather than get down and dirty with trump, as the man is obviously baiting him to do, he has maintained a rather stately mein, insisting that he is in the race to speak about serious issues. the contrast with donald trump<u+2019>s crude brashness has had the effect of making the awkward cruz seem almost<u+00a0>moderate<u+00a0>in affect if not ideology. meanwhile, polls<u+00a0>continue to show a race with trump at the top, then cruz coming on strong in second and a cluster of so-called establishment candidates <u+2014> one of whom everyone still expects to emerge as the <u+201c>candidate to beat.<u+201d> and perhaps that will happen as they predicted all along. after all, nobody has voted yet. but that is a unique way to analyze a race in january of an election year. if anyone but cruz and trump were in the number one and two position it would be assumed that they were the legitimate leaders and the race would be framed as a race between the two of them with some outside chance of a dark horse making a late move. but because they are both, in different ways, extremists, it<u+2019>s assumed they both represent a minority faction and the <u+201c>mainstream<u+201d> republicans will emerge as the majority. but there<u+2019>s every reason to believe that in 2016 these two may actually represent most gop voters while the washington establishment types are the fringe. if that<u+2019>s the case, the establishment is going to have a big decision to make. do they back the hated cruz to stop the loathsome trump? or do they back the detestable trump to stop the odious cruz? what a choice. early indications are that some dc insiders are still living in hope that one of the establishment types will break through but,<u+00a0>still also harbor so much animosity<u+00a0>toward cruz that<u+00a0>they<u+2019>ll take the risk of trump rather than accept him as their leader.<u+00a0>but they are in the minority. jeb bush, for instance,<u+00a0>refused to say<u+00a0>that he would vote for trump if he were to get the nomination. more interestingly, it looks as though some of the mainstream conservative pundits are starting to make peace with the idea that cruz may end up as the establishment candidate by default.<u+00a0>rich lowry made this case in politico<u+00a0>by calling into question the conventional wisdom that cruz is another goldwater extremist who will necessarily go down in a massive general election defeat. and instead of finding parallels to his aggressive ambition in the repellant joseph mccarthy, he compares him instead to another awkward, unlikeable politician who nonetheless got millions of people to vote for him for president in one very close loss, one very close win and one huge landslide: richard nixon. obviously and most importantly, cruz is not a paranoiac. he is more ideological than nixon. and he has none of nixon<u+2019>s insecurity, in fact the opposite. nixon went to tiny whittier college and resented the northeastern elite; cruz went to princeton and harvard and could be a member of the northeastern elite in good standing if he wanted to be. but cruz is cut from roughly similar cloth. he wears his ambition on his sleeve and is not highly charismatic or relatable. in high school, he could have been voted most likely to be seen walking on the beach in his dress shoes. if cruz wins the nomination, it will be on the strength of intelligence and willpower. he will have outworked, outsmarted and outmaneuvered everyone else. he has a point. say what you will about nixon <u+2014> and there<u+2019>s plenty to say <u+2014> he was a very smart politician. in particular, he overcame the political disability of having an extremely unpleasant personality to win the white house twice. i<u+2019>ve written about cruz<u+2019>s savvy strategy to<u+00a0>appeal to the movement conservatives,<u+00a0>the carson evangelicals<u+00a0>and<u+00a0>the paul libertarians<u+00a0>here at salon. and everyone knows he<u+2019>s killing trump with kindness<u+00a0>in the hopes of attracting his angry xenophobes and nationalists<u+00a0>over to his campaign if trump falters or they end up being the last two men standing.<u+00a0>he<u+2019>s got important billionaires in his pocket. and now it appears that some of the republican establishment is taking notice of his sharp political acumen and work ethic and are offering him the respect of recognizing that he<u+2019>s very good at what he does. that<u+2019>s the gop coalition, right there. none of that means that senator ted cruz is not a far right extremist. he is. but he is not just a canny politician, he<u+2019>s also a lucky one. after all, without a maniac like donald trump being in the race it<u+2019>s very unlikely he<u+2019>d be in the position he is today no matter how hard he worked or how well he organized. and a smart and lucky extremist is a very dangerous one.

this is how ted cruz wins: why the formerly unthinkable could really, actually happen

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washington <u+2014> macy's said wednesday that the trump menswear collection <u+2014> and the man behind the brand <u+2014> are no longer a good fit for its stores. in a statement, the retailer denounced recent derogatory comments about mexican immigrants made by real estate mogul and gop presidential candidate donald trump, saying that they have "no tolerance for discrimination in any form. "we welcome all customers, and respect for the dignity of all people is a cornerstone of our culture," the cincinnati-based company said in a statement. "we are disappointed and distressed by recent remarks about immigrants from mexico. ... in light of statements made by donald trump, we have decided to discontinue our business relationship." trump's menswear collection, which includes ties, shirts, suits and accessories, has been sold at macy's since 2004. macy's is the latest company to distance itself from trump, who's hoping to win the republican presidential nomination. nbc and univision have already cut ties following the comments he made during his presidential announcement speech on june 16, in which he said people coming into the united states from mexico "are bringing drugs. they're bringing crime. they're rapists. and some, i assume, are good people." following macy's announcement, trump fired back at both the retailer and nbc in a statement released on his instagram account, stating that he was the one who decided to cut ties with macy's, and on twitter. "clearly, nbc and macy's support illegal immigration, which is totally detrimental to the fabric of our one great country," trump's statement said. "both macy's and nbc totally caved at the first sight of potential difficulty with professional agitators, who are not looking out for the people they purport to represent, but only for themselves." later, trump tweeted a reminder that macy's last year paid a $650,000 new york state fine to settle complaints (including from a treme cast member) that store staffers racially profiled shoppers accused of stealing. trump overlooked the possibility the embarrassing fine might give macy's a stronger reason not to be associated with trump's rhetoric about mexicans. and in other trump trouble, his hotel organization confirmed to usa today wednesday that it is in the midst of an investigation concerning "potential suspicious credit card activity." trump's statement on the end of his relationship with macy's echoes his claims that he chose to quit from nbc before they had even fired him, according to the wrap. "they wanted me to do the apprentice," said trump. "and now with my statements on immigration, which happen to be correct, they are going to take a different stance and that's ok." "as far as ending the relationship, i have to do that because my view on immigration is much different than people at nbc." nbc announced on monday that it would no longer air trump's miss usa and miss universe pageants and would remove him as host of the reality show the apprentice. "due to the recent derogatory statements by donald trump regarding immigrants, nbcuniversal is ending its business relationship with mr. trump," the statement said. the move came after univision announced last week that it would no longer air spanish-language versions of his pageants, and mexico separately announced it would no longer send a contestant to the miss universe contest. and on tuesday, miss usa co-host cheryl burke announced she was ending her relationship with trump. "i cannot in good conscience move forward with participating in this year's miss usa pageant as its co-host," burke told usa today. on wednesday, more signs of damage to trump's myriad business interests appeared as musicians lined up to dump trump. singer ricky martin added to his criticism last week of trump's remarks by hitting the donald where it really hurts: in his golf-course empire. martin has cancelled plans to host his annual ricky martin foundation charity golf tournament (supporting efforts to end child trafficking) at the trump international golf club rio grande in puerto rico, in an act of "solidarity for basic human rights and in support of the latin-american community," according to a statement issued from his puerto rico office . instead, the tournament will take place at the nearby wyndham grand rio mar beach resort on august 21. meanwhile, reps for flo rida said the rapper will no longer perform at the miss usa pageant in baton rouge later this month. he was followed out the pageant's door by country singer craig wayne boyd (winner of the voice last year) and pop singer natalie la rose, who also pulled out. no other performers for miss usa had been announced. shakira, too, condemned trump via twitter. "this is a hateful and racist speech that attempts to divide a country that for years has promoted diversity and democracy!" she wrote, linking to a video of trump's presidential announcement speech. "no one living in this century should stand behind so much ignorance." adding on to trump's woes, ora tv, a television company backed by mexican billionaire carlos slim, said it was cancelling a project in development with trump. and this could only be the beginning, according to larry chiagouris, a marketing professor at pace university's lubin school of business. "we are witnessing a jumping on the bandwagon by others who do not want to appear out of step with the trend to put distance between themselves and donald trump," chiagouris says.

macy's is the latest to cut ties with donald trump

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republicans' growing unity behind their presidential nominee, donald trump, has helped pull him just 1<u+00a0>percentage point behind<u+00a0>hillary clinton and has placed gop leaders who resist him in a vulnerable position, according to the latest washington post-abc news tracking poll. a majority of all likely voters say they are unmoved by the fbi's announcement friday<u+00a0>that it may<u+00a0>review additional emails from clinton's time as secretary of state. just more than<u+00a0>6 in 10 voters say<u+00a0>the news will make no difference in their vote, while just more than<u+00a0>3 in 10 say it makes them less likely to support her; 2 percent say they are more likely to back her as a result. the issue may do more to reinforce preferences of voters opposed to clinton than swing undecided voters. roughly<u+00a0>two-thirds of those who say the issue makes them less likely to support clinton are<u+00a0>republicans or republican-leaning independents (68 percent), while 17 percent lean democratic and 9 percent are independents who lean toward neither party. when asked about house speaker paul d. ryan's decision not to campaign for trump in the final weeks before the election, two-thirds of republican-leaning likely voters disapprove of the wisconsin republican's move (66 percent), including nearly half who disapprove <u+201c>strongly<u+201d> (48 percent). barely 1 in 5 approve of ryan's decision<u+00a0>(21 percent). the post-abc tracking poll continues to find a very tight race, with clinton at 46 percent and trump at 45 percent among likely voters in interviews from tuesday through friday. the two major-party nominees for president are followed<u+00a0>by libertarian gary johnson, at 4 percent, and the green party's jill stein, at 2 percent. the result is similar to a 47-to-45 clinton-trump margin in the previous wave released saturday, though it is smaller than what was found in other surveys this week. when likely voters are asked to choose between clinton and trump alone, clinton stands at 49 percent, and<u+00a0>trump is at 46 percent, a statistically insignificant margin. greater republican unity has buoyed trump's rising support, which has wavered throughout the year. trump's 87 percent support among self-identified republicans, ticking up from 83 percent last week, nearly matches clinton's 88 percent support among democrats. independents also have moved sharply in trump's direction, from favoring clinton by eight points one week ago to backing trump by 19 points. clinton maintains clear edge on qualifications, but not on empathy clinton is still widely seen as more qualified for the presidency, leading that measure by an 18-point margin, 54 to 36 percent. she has held a clear advantage over trump in qualifications throughout the campaign. but trump receives more unified backing among those who see him as better qualified. fully 99 percent of this group supports him, compared with clinton's 84 percent support among those who see her as better qualified. seven<u+00a0>percent of this group supports trump, while 4 percent are for johnson and 2 percent are for stein. clinton also lost a once-large advantage on empathy, a trait on which<u+00a0>voters now split 46 percent for her and 43 percent for trump when asked which candidate understands the problems of people like them. clinton had led trump by an eight-point margin on this measure in early september among likely voters and by a 20-point margin among all adults in august. clinton has a narrow eight-point edge over trump on which candidate has stronger moral character, 46 to 38 percent. a sizable 13 percent said<u+00a0>that neither candidate possesses this trait. a larger share of trump supporters than clinton supporters say that neither candidate has strong moral character (12 percent vs. 2 percent). ryan's decision not to campaign for trump this fall has proved unpopular among his fellow partisans. this comes as ryan's status as house speaker is in peril<u+00a0>because of<u+00a0>republican infighting. rejection of ryan's stance swells to 75 percent among republicans and gop-leaning independents who identify as <u+201c>very conservative<u+201d> compared with smaller majorities of <u+201c>somewhat conservative<u+201d> republicans (63 percent) and those who are moderate or liberal (56 percent). ryan's stand against trump is being handled differently by several other prominent republicans. for one, rep.<u+00a0>rep. jason chaffetz (r-utah)<u+00a0>has said that even though he could not endorse trump or his actions, he still plans to vote for the republican nominee. maryland gov. larry hogan, a popular republican in an overwhelmingly democratic state, has spoken out against trump, a move that was widely popular with independents and democrats in the state, but republicans were split on whether they approved of the decision. this washington post-abc news poll was conducted by telephone oct. 25 to 28 among a random national sample of 1,781 adults, including landline and cellphone respondents. overall results have a margin-of-sampling error of plus-or-minus-2.5 points; the error margin is plus-or-minus-three points among the sample of 1,160 likely voters. sampling, data collection and tabulation are by abt-srbi of new york.

post-abc poll finds tight presidential race, with mixed reaction to fbi<u+2019>s review of clinton<u+2019>s emails

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at this point republicans may wish to consider aborting to protect the health of the party. they have been going after planned parenthood over the past few months like so many captain ahabs. they threatened to shut down the government to defund the group. their insistence on a planned parenthood showdown drove house speaker john boehner to resign. they<u+2019>re about to appoint a special committee to investigate planned parenthood. the party<u+2019>s presidential candidates have made planned parenthood a central part of the campaign, and house republicans are manufacturing new legislative vehicles to cut off the group. and what do they have to show for it? a new wall street journal/nbc news poll finds that americans have a more favorable view of planned parenthood than of any other entity tested, including the republican party and presidential candidates. the group<u+2019>s favorable/unfavorable impression, 47<u+00a0>percent to 31<u+00a0>percent, is actually up slightly from july. what<u+2019>s more, 61<u+00a0>percent oppose eliminating federal funding of planned parenthood. even among the 35<u+00a0>percent who support defunding, only 9<u+00a0>percent favor shutting down the government to do it. yet house republicans pressed ahead with their quest tuesday, hauling planned parenthood president cecile richards before the oversight and government reform committee for more than five hours of hectoring and finger-wagging about, among other things, her salary and the group<u+2019>s travel expenses. the hearing came about because of videos released in july purporting to show that planned parenthood was harvesting body parts from aborted fetuses for profit. in their memo announcing the hearing, committee republicans proclaimed that the <u+201c>disturbing content<u+201d> of the recently released videos <u+201c>raises questions about [planned parenthood<u+2019>s] use of taxpayer funding.<u+201d> but the videos turned out to be doctored, and committee republicans declined democrats<u+2019> requests to have the video maker, david daleiden, appear before the panel. the committee didn<u+2019>t get the full unedited videos, chairman jason chaffetz (utah) said, because of california court proceedings. two hours into the hearing, chaffetz made the startling confession that <u+201c>without the videos, we can<u+2019>t have a good discussion about them.<u+201d> but we can shut down the federal government over them? dispensing with the videos, members of the panel got down to the larger purpose of the hearing: harassing richards and her group. chaffetz flashed a chart on the screens showing that since 2010, the number of abortions at planned parenthood has surpassed the number of its <u+201c>cancer screenings and prevention services.<u+201d> but no such shift occurred. the fine print on the chart showed that the number of abortions (327,000 in 2013) never came close to reaching the number of cancer screenings (935,573 in 2013) at any point. the bogus graph didn<u+2019>t seem to matter to chaffetz, who drew the witness<u+2019>s attention to the crossing lines showing abortions overtaking screenings. richards said the chart <u+201c>absolutely does not reflect what<u+2019>s happening.<u+201d> <u+201c>i pulled those numbers directly out of your corporate reports,<u+201d> the chairman said. in fact, the chart said the source was the antiabortion group americans united for life <u+2014> which richards pointed out to chaffetz. <u+201c>then we will get to the bottom of the truth of that,<u+201d> the chairman said. the truth? planned parenthood gets money for women<u+2019>s birth control, std screenings and the like, not abortions <u+2014> which richards calmly reminded her inquisitors. she left it to democratic lawmakers to proclaim their (exaggerated) outrage. <u+201c>the misogyny!<u+201d> wailed rep.<u+00a0>gerald connolly (va.). republicans tried to inoculate themselves against the inevitable <u+201c>war on women<u+201d> charges. chaffetz admitted three republican women to participate in the hearing (there is only one gop woman on the panel) and he started his own remarks by emotionally invoking his wife<u+2019>s work with breast-cancer patients. rep.<u+00a0>tim walberg (r-mich.) thought it helpful to say that <u+201c>i<u+2019>m wearing a pink tie in solidarity with women<u+2019>s health issues.<u+201d> the majority dodged an awkward moment when rep.<u+00a0>scott desjarlais (r-tenn.), a pro-life lawmaker who, according to court records, encouraged his wife and mistress to have abortions, yielded his time to a colleague. that colleague, rep. paul gosar (r-ariz.), told richards <u+201c>you<u+2019>re profiting off death.<u+201d> likewise, rep. john mica (r-fla.) proclaimed himself a <u+201c>champion for the unborn,<u+201d> while walberg said <u+201c>we<u+2019>ve been brought into a frenzy and a concern about what happens to our babies,<u+201d> and rep. ron desantis (r-fla.) asked what happens if <u+201c>a child survives an abortion attempt.<u+201d> this would appear to justify richards<u+2019>s contention that the controversy <u+201c>isn<u+2019>t about planned parenthood. it<u+2019>s about allowing women in this country .<u+2009>.<u+2009>. to make other decisions about their pregnancies.<u+201d> as if to confirm richards<u+2019>s suspicion, 28<u+00a0>minutes after the hearing ended, lawmakers went to the house floor to vote on legislation restricting abortion <u+2014> for the 14th time this year. read more from dana milbank<u+2019>s archive, follow him on twitter or subscribe to his updates on facebook.

the gop still has nothing to show for its anti-planned parenthood campaign

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washington (cnn) rick perry, the former texas governor who insisted he learned lessons from his disastrous 2012 presidential campaign, dropped his second bid for the white house on friday after just 100 days. "today, i am suspending my campaign for the presidency of the united states," perry said in an address in st. louis that virtually mirrored his standard stump speech until the very end. "life is good. i am a blessed man." the departure of perry, who had little support in early-voting states or among the gop donor class, is unlikely to alter the contours of the republican race. but perry nevertheless implored his supporters in an email to back a candidate who embodies the principles of conservatism. "the conservative movement has always been about principles, not personalities," perry said, before making a not-too-veiled swipe at donald trump, the gop's current front-runner. "our nominee should embody those principles. he -- or she -- must make the case for the cause of conservatism more than the cause of their own celebrity." for almost two years, the swaggering texan had prepared and studied for a second shot at the presidency. but in a 17-candidate field, perry found himself weakened by fundraisers who ditched him for his rivals and by top surrogates who defected as his campaign crumbled. he raised only about $1 million in the first fundraising quarter, and he never had enough supporters for him to earn a spot in the premier gop debates. back in texas, he remained under indictment on an abuse-of-power charge. and as it became increasingly clear that the campaign wouldn't be able to overcome deep financial problems that left him without enough money to win a competitive race, he became the first gop candidate to leave it. still, perry's exit still comes surprisingly early. he was scheduled to appear next week at cnn's republican debate, which his allies hoped would be a turning point for his troubled campaign. his super pac sat on more than $17 million that it was investing in iowa to fill the void created by his austin-based campaign as its financial difficulties mounted. and perry acted very much the candidate all day on friday, authoring an opinion piece about terrorism in national review in the morning and sharing his vision for his presidency for a half hour in his st. louis speech in the afternoon. some of his top supporters expressed shock that perry bowed out so early. david johnson, an iowa state senator and the candidate's top backer in the hawkeye state, said perry may have prematurely pulled the plug. "perhaps governor perry sees something that i don't," johnson said, explaining that he heard about perry's decision from the other texan in the race -- ted cruz. "i was certainly ready to go." perry was unable to reassemble the texas political and financial base that made him, at one point, the party's front-runner in the last presidential cycle. in the 2012 race, his campaign was dogged by questions about his readiness, punctuated by an embarrassing moment in a debate when he couldn't name the third agency he planned to eliminate as president. and just as in his first campaign, the man who was once governor of the largest republican state for 14 years, leaves the campaign trail disappointed and also politically damaged. the second campaign began to unravel this summer, with the operation essentially abandoning its efforts in iowa and new hampshire. doug deason, the son of a $5 million donor to the perry super pac, said perry's campaign had only raised $100,000 in the two months since the last reporting period. deason said perry delivered the news of the suspension to him on thursday. "he felt it coming. he knew there's only so much the super pac can do," explained deason, a powerful texas donor who is part of the koch brothers' political network. "after the word got out they were struggling, they did start getting donations in -- but it just wasn't enough to really make a difference." deason expects to get his millions of dollars returned next week. "the beauty, of course, of investing in a super pac is you get the money back that doesn't get spent," deason said. but austin barbour, the group's top operative, said it was not immediately clear if the law allowed the donations to be refunded. nevertheless, other campaigns friday evening were moving rapidly to poach top financial and political backers of perry. deason dined with cruz a few evenings ago. even while friday's speech was going on, deason was contacted by cruz finance director willie langston and lieutenants from the jeb bush and scott walker campaigns. johnson said in the hours after perry's decision, he heard from aides representing walker, cruz and rick santorum. "would you consider another texan for president?" asked bryan english, cruz's iowa state director, according to johnson. the departure of perry speaks in part to the limitations of super pacs, which had been expected to save the cash-strapped campaign. perry's well-funded group, opportunity and freedom pac, depended heavily on a small group of texas families, and the organization had indicated it was willing to hire field operatives and launch an aggressive advertising campaign. "in it for the long haul: opportunity and freedom pac is back on the air in iowa," the group announced at 9 a.m. on friday. "we all felt like we had really turned a corner in the past few days," said a disappointed barbour, whose super pac had knocked on 10,000 doors in iowa so far. "we wanted to fight. we felt like there was path, but again, it's not up to us." but despite the super pac's intentions, it cannot pay filing fees in early states or help the candidate raise the hard money needed to travel or operate a headquarters. the campaign had only raised $1.2 million in the first three months of the campaign, deason said. earlier this week, perry shuttered his south carolina campaign headquarters in the capital city of columbia. and field staffers in iowa and new hampshire went without pay this month as the campaign tried to salvage its operation. about a month ago, perry's campaign announced that it would no longer be paying staff across the country. some perry staffers had remained loyal to the campaign, and his super pac was expected to play a growing, if not unprecedented, role in resuscitating the official campaign. perry's support barely registered in polls, but his departure will likely create an intense fight for the dollars that have flooded his big-money group, which must spend the money independently. it is unclear which candidate, or candidates, will inherit the support of perry's backers. in the past, perry has repeatedly gone out of his way to lavish praise on another candidate with texas roots: businesswoman carly fiorina. soon after perry announced the end of his bid, a flood of warm wishes came from his now-former gop presidential rivals on twitter -- perhaps in an effort to court his support, or that of his backers. ".@governorperry is a terrific guy and i wish him well- i know he will have a great future!" tweeted trump, who has made antagonizing his gop rivals, including perry, a hallmark of his campaign. cruz said he donated to the lone survivor foundation and the chris kyle frog foundation, two of perry's favorite charities, and praised his one-time boss. "the entire gop field was unquestionably made stronger by the experience & wisdom @governorperry brought to the race," he tweeted. ".@governorperry has dedicated his entire life to his family, friends, and jesus christ," florida sen. marco rubio said. bush praised perry for his commitment to conservatism. "amen. god bless rick perry for his continuing commitment to that cause," bush said. "@governorperry getting to know you and anita has been a great joy for our family. thank you for your service friend," santorum tweeted. other candidates, like louisiana gov. bobby jindal and kentucky sen. rand paul, who have feuded with trump, used perry's departure to mock the gop front-runner. ".@realdonaldtrump attacked him one day. praised him today. sounding like a typical politician. rick is a better man than you'll ever be," jindal tweeted. "what does it say about gop when a 3 & half term gov w/ a successful record of creating jobs bows out as a reality star leads in the polls?" paul asked.

rick perry drops out of 2016 presidential race

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with the general election campaign just hours old, hillary clinton and donald trump began focusing their attention this weekend on america<u+2019>s rust belt -- hoping their separate plans to restore prosperity to the all-important region will sway enough voters there to help them win in november. <u+201c>we<u+2019>re going to create jobs in pennsylvania and across america, especially in places that have been left behind,<u+201d> clinton said at a rally saturday at a factory in johnstown, part of pennsylvania<u+2019>s western, industrial region, home to a large conservative voting bloc that trump needs. <u+201c>i believe with all of my heart that the economy should work for everyone, not just the top 1 percent. <u+2026> we<u+2019>re going to support steel workers,<u+201d> continued clinton, who also touted her campaign promise to, in her first 100 days in the white house, make the largest investment in jobs since world war ii. clinton won the democratic labor and blue-collar vote in her failed 2008 presidential primary bid. but those voters have been more difficult for her to reach in this election cycle. primary rival sen. bernie sanders<u+2019> populist message repeatedly tried to portray clinton as less receptive to middle class needs. the vermont senator in fact scored a major suprise win over clinton in the michigan primay. meanwhile, trump, the republican nominee, and running mate mike pence continued to argue that electing clinton would continue the obama administration's failed economic policies -- marked by stagnant wages and bad international trade deals that are sending manufacturing jobs oversea. <u+201c>the second-quarter numbers came out -- 1.2 percent growth in the american economy,<u+201d> pence, indiana's governor, said friday night at a rally in lima, ohio.<u+00a0><u+201c>we can<u+2019>t keep doing the same thing and expect a different result <u+2026> people are restless for change.<u+201d> most political analysts predict that the general election will again be decided by four so-called battleground states, among them ohio and pennsylvania. clinton and trump are deadlocked in those states, according to two recent quinnipiac university polls, though an nbc survey released july 13 shows trump trailing by 9 percentage points. <u+201c>it will be interesting to see if clinton can hold off trump in the rust belt by going back to the blue-collar vote,<u+201d> caleb burns, a republican strategist and partner in the washington law firm wiley rein, said earlier this week. <u+201c>if she can, it will be extremely difficult for trump to find a path to victory.<u+201d> to be sure, trump already has a narrow path toward getting the requisite 270 electoral votes to take the white house. beyond winning the 13 states that gop nominees have taken in the past six presidential races, trump must also win some combination of battleground states -- including colorado, north carolina, florida, virginia, ohio and pennsylvania. no republican has won pennsylvania since 1988, and no republican nominee has won the white house without winning ohio. <u+201c>and this election will be no different,<u+201d> fox news contributor and senior bush administration policy adviser karl rove recently wrote in the wall street journal editorial pages. <u+201c>if mr. trump<u+2019>s appeal to blue-collar, white swing voters is real, he could paint pennsylvania red. if so, he is likely to win the white house with 273 electoral votes.<u+201d> however, a loss in pennsylvania would mean trump would have to find wins in such midwestern industrial states as michigan, minnesota and wisconsin, all democratic strongholds. clinton and kaine continued their <u+201c>stronger together<u+201d> tour saturday with a late-afternoon rally in pittsburgh and an evening event in youngstown, ohio. their tour concludes sunday in columbus. at a rally in colorado on friday, the day after clinton accepted the democratic nomination in philadelphia, trump went after clinton and kaine on economic issues. <u+201c>we have to go over some numbers,<u+201d> he said at a rally in denver, a liberal stronghold. <u+201c>hillary was talking last night about how wonderful everything was. she didn<u+2019>t talk about all of the unbelievable long-term unemployment, the fact house ownership is the lowest in 51 years.<u+201d> he also argued that kaine is <u+201c>not popular<u+201d> in his home state of virginia, considering that unemployment nearly doubled in his one term as governor and that his first move after getting elected to the post in 2005 was to increase taxes by $4 billion. trump plans to visit<u+00a0>columbus and cleveland on monday.

clinton campaign scrambles to defend rust belt against trump

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hundreds of justice department staff and lawyers gathered in the great hall of the robert f. kennedy building friday to give the nation's first african-american attorney general a send-off. it was a more tightly-scripted version of the thunderous welcome he received in 2009 when holder entered the building. the goodbye ceremony included a nine-minute video lauding the attorney general for his six-year tenure. "i think we can say now eric holder is free," the attorney general said to laughs, after tossing to the crowd wristbands he has been wearing as he waited months for his successor, loretta lynch, to win senate approval . the wristbands, the idea of an aide, were an inside joke that read "free eric holder." holder was tearful, shaking hands, hugging and taking selfies with some of the crowd, which numbered about 200. this was his third going-away ceremony -- one in february included president barack obama and a performance by aretha franklin. as in his speech when he took office six years ago, holder laid claim to helping restore the justice department's reputation, a tacit shot at the bush administration and the political scandal that hung over former attorney general alberto gonzales after the firings of u.s. attorneys. holder said he was proud of the department's work, which he said was done "free of politicization." he told the justice staffers they were responsible for a new "golden age" at the justice department. he cited the department's role in the obama administration's decision to stop defending the defense of marriage act, which has quickened the acceptance of same-sex marriage. he called same-sex marriage the "civil rights issue of our time." he also lauded the department's active role in civil rights enforcement, which has become a major focus in light of a national spate of police shootings and excessive use-of-force incidents. while holder listed his accomplishments, much of the ceremony also served as a reminder of the rocky relationship he has had with republicans, who made him the first sitting cabinet member to be held in contempt of congress and who regularly used him as the stand-in to take shots at president obama in political fights. u.s. attorney general eric holder attends a meeting with the my brother's keeper task force to receive a 90-day report on its progress in the roosevelt room of the white house in may 2014. holder's resignation was announced in september 2014, but his replacement, loretta lynch, was not confirmed by the senate until april 23, 2015. holder talks with his father, eric holder sr., after being sworn in as the u.s. attorney for the district of columbia in 1993. holder shakes hands with then-president bill clinton as attorney general janet reno, holder's boss, looks on at an american bar association event at the white house in 1999. holder walks with caroline kennedy, daughter of former president john f. kennedy, in june 2008 after they were tasked with searching for a running mate for then-sen. barack obama. holder is sworn in as attorney general by vice president joe biden in february 2009. holder's wife, dr. sharon malone, is by his side. holder announces in november 2009 that five men accused of the september 11 terror attacks would be tried in a new york civilian court. he said the government would seek the death penalty against khalid sheikh mohammed and four others. holder is greeted by members of congress as he arrives at the u.s. house of representatives in may 2010. holder answers a student's question after a speech commemorating the 100th anniversary of the duquesne university school of law in february 2011. holder talks to reporters after meeting with u.s. rep. darrell issa, chairman of the house oversight and government reform committee, in june 2012. issa and holder met to discuss releasing documents related to the botched fast and furious investigation. holder takes questions at a news conference in may 2013. he said he recused himself from a national security leak investigation in which prosecutors obtained the phone records of associated press journalists. holder leaves after speaking of his disappointment in a supreme court ruling that declared a key part of the voting rights act unconstitutional in june 2013. holder talks with capt. ron johnson of the missouri state highway patrol in ferguson, missouri, in august 2014. holder traveled to ferguson to oversee the federal government's investigation into a police officer's shooting of 18-year-old michael brown. holder wipes away tears in september 2014 as his resignation is announced by president barack obama in washington. holder, who led the department of justice for six years, stayed in the position until his replacement, loretta lynch, was confirmed. holder testifies at a senate judiciary committee hearing on thursday, january 29, on oversight of the justice department and reform of government surveillance programs. holder and his wife, sharon malone, look on as artist simmie knox unveils holder's official portrait during a ceremony at the justice department in washington on friday, february 27. holder delivers remarks about the shooting of two police officers in ferguson, missouri, at the department of justice in washington on thursday, march 12.

eric holder bids farewell to justice department

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former arkansas gov. mike huckabee has announced plans to attend donald trump's fundraising rally for wounded warriors, slated to take place in des moines, iowa, thursday night - the same time as the republican debate. "he'll do the undercard debate on fox news and then head over to the trump rally, which is about 10 minutes away from the debate site," cbn's david brody said. read more about huckabee's appearance at the trump rally at the brody file. the news comes as trump reaffirmed his decision to boycott the gop debate. that event will be hosted by fox news, which he has accused of unfair treatment. "i don't like being taken advantage of," trump said in an interview wednesday on fox, signaling he wasn't boycotting the highly rated network completely. trump threatened to boycott the debate if fox kept megyn kelly as debate moderator, but it was statement from fox news that led him to make his final decision. that statement said the leaders of iran and russia "both intend to treat donald trump unfairly when they meet with him if he becomes president" and that "trump has his own secret plan to replace the cabinet with his twitter followers to see if he should even go to those meetings," reports the associated press. the other gop candidates are hoping they can emerge thursday night from the shadow trump has cast over the race. "i think it'll hurt him that he's not showing up in the iowa debate four days before the iowa caucuses," former florida gov. jeb bush told cnn. <u+00a0> trump's absence will likely bring more attention to sens. ted cruz, r-texas, and marco rubio, r-fla., who is hoping for a third place finish in iowa. rubio said republicans "don't have time for these kinds of distractions."

huckabee appearing at trump event in iowa

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no matter how much pressure president obama and democrats try to apply, mcconnell<u+2019>s allies say the senate majority leader will never agree to hold hearings on the nomination of merrick garland, a federal appeals court judge, to succeed antonin scalia as a supreme court justice. even republicans who disagree with him think that mcconnell (r-ky.) will not retreat from that defiant stance. <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t see the majority leader changing his mind on this issue. he believes strongly that this should be a decision made by the next president,<u+201d> said sen. susan collins (maine), one of two republicans to call for hearings on garland. since scalia<u+2019>s death, and mcconnell<u+2019>s pronouncement hours later, democrats have been stunned by the senator<u+2019>s determined position not to consider any nominee <u+2014> and his flat-out refusal to extend the traditional courtesy of meeting with the nominee. they have long viewed mcconnell as purely a political tactician who always does what is best for his party<u+2019>s chances at controlling the senate. with garland<u+2019>s introduction, democrats began pillorying republican incumbents for rejecting any obama choice out of hand just because there is an election eight months away. [gop leaders to give garland the cold shoulder during visit today] by wednesday afternoon, a few hours after obama introduced garland as his pick, democrats asserted that the ground had shifted after several republicans signaled they would at least meet with the nominee. <u+201c>the ice is cracking,<u+201d> sen. charles e. schumer (d-n.y.) said three hours after the rose garden ceremony. <u+201c>you<u+2019>ve got a whole number of republicans who are now willing to sit down and talk to the nominee, and i think given how strong a nominee it is, more ice is going to crack soon.<u+201d> for senate minority leader harry m. reid (d-nev.), the garland nomination fight could be his last big battle before he retires at the end of the year. reid on wednesday relaunched the democrats<u+2019> <u+201c>mcconnell backdown watch<u+201d> in news releases and on social media. but those who know mcconnell say his strategy is the synthesis of two of his lifelong, overlapping interests: political machinations of the senate in general and the supreme court confirmation process in particular. on wednesday, the gop leader delivered a speech at a lunchtime gathering of social conservatives. the weyrich lunch, named for the late paul weyrich, an original leader of the christian conservative movement, draws leaders of top religious organization who often use the meeting to criticize mcconnell for what they see as his traditional establishment views. but in a random quirk of the schedule, mcconnell<u+2019>s once-a-year appearance turned into a rally-the-troops event wednesday to deny obama the chance to replace scalia, who was an iconic figure among movement conservatives. the presidential environment, with front-runner donald trump dominating the process, has left many social conservatives fearful that their standard-bearer won<u+2019>t share their values. republicans think that the scalia vacancy will at least encourage the religious voters to show up in november <u+2014> even if it<u+2019>s just to save the senate gop majority as a check against the possibility that democratic front-runner hillary clinton wins and gets the opportunity to appoint more liberals to the supreme court. [the fix: what picking a white, male, moderate harvard grad says about obama<u+2019>s legacy] gop advisers agree that public and private polling shows a 2-to-1 ratio in favor of holding hearings and possible votes on the garland nomination. but at the same time, they say that the intensity level on this issue is low and that voters are focused on the economy and national security as the most critical issues. the backlash from conservative voters, republicans say, would be far worse than the small gain from going through the process with the nomination. so far, endangered republican incumbents remain on board. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m hearing a lot back home about this, from both sides. i mean, the intensity level is high on the republican side, too,<u+201d> said sen. rob portman (r-ohio), who visited seven counties over the past week and heard <u+201c>intense<u+201d> views from liberals and conservatives. <u+201c>what i hear is both sides expressing their strong views.<u+201d> schumer predicted that mcconnell is making a temporary play to appease conservatives. <u+201c>he<u+2019>s probably better off first making the stand and then having to buckle to public pressure than not making the stand,<u+201d> he said. but that also neglects mcconnell<u+2019>s own fascination with the supreme court since his stint as a staffer for sen. marlow cook (r-ky.), who appointed a 27-year-old mcconnell as his point man for several of president richard m. nixon<u+2019>s supreme court nominations. cook served as nixon<u+2019>s lead defender of clement haynsworth, whose nomination was blocked in november 1969 amid questions about whether he should have recused himself in cases involving his stock holdings. nixon<u+2019>s next nominee also failed to make it past the senate. cook encouraged mcconnell to write a piece for the kentucky law journal soon after those nominations. the young senate legislative aide wrote that too often senators hid behind false attacks on trumped-up charges when their real motive was simply the political blockade of an opposing president<u+2019>s choice. <u+201c>senators sought to hide their political objections beneath a veil of charges about fitness, ethics and other professional qualifications,<u+201d> mcconnell wrote. political considerations, he said in the paper, should not disqualify a nominee. now, 45 years later, mcconnell has reversed that position but has at least made clear the rationale for not even holding a hearing: the next election. <u+201c>this person will not be <u+00ad>confirmed,<u+201d> sen. john cornyn (r-texas) said. <u+201c>so there<u+2019>s no reason going through some motions and pretending like it<u+2019>s going to happen, because it<u+2019>s not going to happen.<u+201d>

why sen. mitch mcconnell won<u+2019>t budge on the supreme court nomination

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no, not the number of primaries he<u+2019>s won, or the number of votes he<u+2019>s gotten, or the number of delegates he has. i mean the poll numbers that show the ohio governor is well ahead of hillary clinton in a november matchup, while she beats mogul donald trump and sen. ted cruz. there<u+2019>s even one that shows him dead even with clinton in the deep, deep-blue state of new jersey. isn<u+2019>t that exactly the kind of candidate delegates would and should turn to if they become unbound after the first ballot? well, that<u+2019>s his argument anyway. sorry, gov. kasich, but history says you<u+2019>re wrong. and there may be good reasons why the <u+201c>i<u+2019>m electable<u+201d> argument is less potent than it might appear. for party delegates deciding how much <u+201c>electability<u+201d> matters, it<u+2019>s important to remember that such springtime numbers have a fragile half-life. as trump<u+2019>s supporters keep reminding us, ronald reagan was running anywhere from 18 to 23 points behind president jimmy carter in the spring of 1980. one reason ex-president gerald ford flirted with entering the race<u+2014>apart from a grudge from 1976<u+2014>was that, as time magazine noted at the time, <u+201c>ford shares the fears of many republicans that reagan cannot win if the democrats re-nominate jimmy carter.<u+201d> then in 1992, even as bill clinton was firming his grip on the nomination, the polls told a dismal story about his prospective election. in june, he was running third behind president george h.w. bush and<u+2014>in first place<u+2014>texas businessman ross perot. (note: springtime polls often elevate independent candidates<u+2014>in 1980, john anderson was running as high as 24 per cent against carter and reagan.) so there<u+2019>s reason for republicans looking at kasich to be skeptical about these numbers. even if the numbers are sound, there<u+2019>s a reason that they might spell out the wrong strategy for the campaign: "electability" isn't the message that galvanizes a party base, and for good reason. in 2000, every survey showed that sen. john mccain would run far better against vice president al gore than did george w. bush. around the time of new hampshire, mccain had an 8-point lead, while bush and gore ran even. but mccain was a heretic. he opposed the mammoth tax cuts proposed by bush and congressional republicans, preferring to see some of the surplus<u+2014>yes, there was a surplus back then<u+2014>go toward reducing the debt. and he<u+2019>d teamed up with sen. russ feingold, the most liberal democrat in the senate, to write a bill banning most soft money from campaigns (this was the law ultimately eviscerated by the supreme court). that<u+2019>s one of the reasons mccain won republican voters only in new hampshire and in his home state of arizona. his margins elsewhere came from independents. for republicans, he did not represent them as well as bush did. and that goes to the heart of the issue. a party is more than a collection of individuals looking for an appealing candidate: it's an organization searching for the person who the best embodies their beliefs. when the party faithful<u+2014>the people who are delegates<u+2014>pull the lever, they're going to be thinking about what kind of republican party they want, not just which horse is likely to finish first. it makes sense for the party to think this way. why? because choosing a nominee simply on the basis of electability may wind up impeding the goals of that party<u+2019>s base. dwight eisenhower was far more electable than conservative hero robert taft in 1952, but his two landslide elections wound up solidifying the expansion of the federal government under fdr and harry s. truman rather than advancing the agenda of the republican party. from the perspective of a republican loyalist opposed to that expansion, ike<u+2019>s victories achieved almost nothing. (and if you throw in his appointment of earl warren and william brennan, two of the most liberal supreme court justices in history, you could well argue that eisenhower<u+2019>s terms greatly expanded the liberal cause.) that<u+2019>s why the new republic in 2012 could look back on that era and conclude that the <u+201c>relationship between the 1950s conservative movement and its contemporaneous republican president was one of mutual ill-will. conservatives had expected that eisenhower, as the first republican president since 1932, would repeal the new deal; instead he augmented and expanded programs like social security, thereby giving them bipartisan legitimacy. <u+2026> he approved anti-recessionary stimulus spending, extended unemployment compensation, and raised the minimum wage. he pioneered federal aid to education and created the largest public-works program in history in the form of the interstate highway system. he levied gasoline taxes to pay for the highway construction, and believed that cutting income taxes when the federal government was running a deficit would be an act of gross fiscal irresponsibility.<u+201d> from that perspective, it<u+2019>s unimaginable that today<u+2019>s gop, which is far more conservative than it was in ike<u+2019>s time, would turn to such an ideologically suspect candidate no matter how <u+201c>electable<u+201d> he or she was. in that sense, the gop base shares the view expressed by ex-sen. jim demint when he said he<u+2019>d rather have 30 strong conservatives than 50 centrist republicans. and a lot of republican delegates will be thinking just that way as they head into the convention in cleveland in july. by contrast, bernie sanders<u+2014>who in some polls runs better against trump and cruz than does clinton<u+2014>has at least a plausible argument that his candidacy better reflects where the democrats are going<u+2014>left<u+2014>and that the new, younger voters he would draw make a good fit with that direction. for sanders, the electability argument could work<u+2014>but only because he<u+2019>s already made the liberal base happy. there is one thing that kasich does have in his favor, however: the argument that trump doesn<u+2019>t really channel the party base either, at least when it comes to ideas. trump too is an apostate on free trade, which has been a core gop plank until now, and seemingly on health care. trump also may have done himself no favors by embracing an exception to the draconian abortion plank of the gop platform. it may appeal to independents, but that<u+2019>s not where the base of the party is<u+2014>at least, not if you judge by the past 32 years of party platforms. but despite his long history in the conservative movement, especially as a key player in the rise of newt gingrich as house speaker in the 1990s, kasich has come to be seen as a heretic too; his decision to accept medicaid expansion made him a pariah to those in his party who believe that anything associated with <u+201c>obama-health-care-idea<u+201d> should be shunned like the devil<u+2019>s brew. a year ago he told a few of us journalists that <u+201c>i think i have the right to try to define what conservatism means.<u+201d> but if the primaries are any evidence, he has failed to do that with the rank and file of his own party. kasich<u+2019>s argument that he has governed as a conservative has had no impact in a primary where the experience of governing is apparently seen as a liability (as scott walker, chris christie and jeb bush learned). he has tried, for example, to argue that his medicaid expansion is conservative at heart<u+2014>it saves money, it keeps lower-income workers off welfare, it gets drug addicts out of jail and into treatment, in the spirit of conservative support of prison reform. but this argument has found no resonance in his party. moreover, cruz<u+2019>s constant pursuit of a <u+201c>no enemies to the right<u+201d> strategy has made it all but impossible for the ohio governor to make any inroads among true believing conservatives. kasich has almost no line to the nomination, but if he<u+2019>s to have any hope at all he ought to minimize his electability pitch and rejuvenate the idea that he speaks for the base. because they<u+2019>re the ones who will decide, and right now they<u+2019>re thinking of the vote that happens in july, not the one in november.

sorry gov. kasich, <u+2018>electability<u+2019> is bunk

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donald trump's two-week-old campaign has been pretty good at sticking to two core points: defending the candidate's anti-immigrant remarks at his announcement and pretending that the companies that responded to those comments by ending their business relationships with him were, instead, rejected by him first. as a result, we've gotten a wonderful look at the unassailable way in which trump's mind works: he's always right, until he's not, in which case he was never wrong. you were. take the statements that started all of trump's troubles; they came within the first few minutes of his campaign kick-off, after he rambled for a bit about the crowd and the islamic state and japan. "when mexico sends its people, they're not sending their best," he said. "they're sending people that have lots of problems, and they're bringing those problems with us. they're bringing drugs. they're bringing crime. they're rapists." with all of the furor that resulted, it's worth noting the two hallmarks of classic donald trump that emerged from his response. first, he unfailingly stood by the comments, despite the fallout. and second, he's<u+00a0>wrong. on cnn on wednesday night, he offered a defense to anchor don lemon. "if you look at the statistics, of people coming ... i didn't say about mexico, i say the illegal immigrants <u+2014>if you look at the statistics on rape, on crime, on everything, coming in illegally to the country, they're mind-boggling," he told lemon. every part of that is incorrect. he did say his comments about mexico <u+2014> explicitly. and data show that new immigrants <u+2014><u+00a0> including illegal immigrants <u+2014> are actually<u+00a0>less likely to commit crime, not more. <u+2014>"foreign-born individuals exhibit remarkably low levels of involvement in crime across their life course." (bianca bersani, university of massachusetts, 2014. published in justice quarterly.) citing bersani's work, pew research created this graph, showing crime rates among the immigrant community. "the crime rate among first-generation immigrants <u+2014> those who came to this country from somewhere else <u+2014> is significantly lower than the overall crime rate and that of the second generation," they write. since undocumented immigrants are more than a quarter of the immigrant population, it's nearly impossible that the overall-immigrant crime rate could be so much lower if the undocumented-immigrant crime rate were significantly higher. <u+2014> "there<u+2019>s essentially no correlation between immigrants and violent crime." (j<u+00f6>rg spenkuch, northwestern university, 2014. published by the university.) he did find a small correlation between immigration and property crime, but only a slight one. <u+2014> "[i]mmigrants are underrepresented in california prisons compared to their representation in the overall population. in fact, u.s.-born adult men are incarcerated at a rate over two-and-a-half times greater than that of foreign-born men." (public policy institute of california, 2008.) <u+2014> "[d]ata from the census and a wide range of other empirical studies show that for every ethnic group without exception, incarceration rates among young men are lowest for immigrants, even those who are the least educated. this holds true especially for the mexicans, salvadorans and guatemalans, who make up the bulk of the undocumented population." (ruben rumbaut, university of california, 2008. published by the police foundation.) <u+2014> "analyses of data collected from four southwest states and the u.s. census show that the perceived size of the undocumented immigrant population, more so than the actual size of the immigrant population and economic conditions, is positively associated with perceptions of undocumented immigrants as a criminal threat." (xia wang, arizona state university, 2014. published in criminology.) how did trump get a simple point so wrong? consider the response he offered lemon on his most contentious assertion. trump offers a sort of ontological rationalization for the "rapists" claim: people are being raped, ergo it's the immigrants' fault. trump cited<u+00a0>an article from fusion. "eighty percent of the women coming in ... " he says, trailing off. "you have to take a look at these stories. ... it's unbelievable, when you look at what's going on. all i'm doing is telling the truth." lemon correctly points out that the story was about immigrant women being raped. "well," trump replies, "someone's doing the raping, don." in apparent disbelief, trump adds, "how can you say such a thing?" and there you go. trump completely misreads a media story, turns it into a mushy stat in his head, and uses that as an excuse to bash immigrants without cause. the stat is nowhere near accurate, but that doesn't matter. when he's presented with accurate data, he offers a weird rationale <u+2014> and then criticizes his critic. perfect. in the wake of his announcement, we dubbed trump to be "un-fact-checkable"<u+00a0>for the simple reason that he so often operates outside the bounds of logical discourse. same here. trump has septupled down on his bad argument <u+2014> assuming, as has happened so many times before, that it will all go away. it probably won't until, almost invariably, his candidacy does.

surprise! donald trump is wrong about immigrants and crime.

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some of the biggest issues facing america this year have the state department at the center: iran, cuba, the climate talks in paris. one that hasn<u+2019>t been resolved? the state department itself. the department hasn<u+2019>t been reauthorized by congress in more than a decade. the last time congress passed the foreign relations authorization act, which sets rules for state, was in 2002<u+2014>so long ago that the law refers to www.state.gov as an <u+201c>internet website.<u+201d> the lack of authorization doesn<u+2019>t mean the department can<u+2019>t operate; it still gets money every year. but every two years, lawmakers are supposed to update america<u+2019>s overseas priorities and how they<u+2019>re executed. the last time that happened, saddam hussein was still alive and the department of homeland security didn<u+2019>t exist. <u+201c>if you have a reauthorization that<u+2019>s 12 or 13 years old,<u+201d> said scott adler, a political scientist at the university of colorado, boulder who has written a book on reauthorizing agencies, <u+201c>that was a completely different world.<u+201d> without a reauthorization bill, congress exerts ad hoc power over state: appropriators can specify funding for different agencies and attach restrictions to the money; lawmakers also find other routes to push their foreign-policy agendas, like inserting provisions into the pentagon authorization. meanwhile, the 116-page document that<u+2019>s supposed to govern state grows slowly obsolete. whenever congress does take up the law, it tends to get hung up on politics and then flame out<u+2014>often over suspiciously domestic-seeming issues, like money for groups that favor abortions overseas. partisan fights over the u.s.<u+2019>s role in the united nations have also killed legislation. a big<u+00a0>problem is that the members of congress who head the foreign-policy committees<u+2014>like joe biden and john kerry, when they were in the senate<u+2014>tend to ignore the grunt work of the law and instead focus on the theater of the hearing room. <u+201c>guys like biden and kerry cared less about an authorization bill and more about their ability to impact foreign policy by being a diplomat and being a part of the group of unique statesmen, apart from the administration, that could still represent the united states globally,<u+201d> said ilan goldenberg, a senior fellow at a center for a new american security who has worked for state and department of defense and was previously a staffer at the senate foreign relations committee. [update: after deadline, a<u+00a0>state department official defended kerry's work as chair, noting he introduced a reauthorization bill in 2012.<u+00a0>"the fact that the state authorization bill wasn<u+2019>t passed by the full senate during his tenure is more a reflection of senate dysfunction and politics than it is of his leadership and priorities as chairman," the official wrote in an email. and philip arsenault pointed out that biden<u+00a0>chaired the foreign relations<u+00a0>committee when<u+00a0>the 2002 reauthorization passed.] in the past it<u+2019>s been the senate where the bill gets held up; in 2013, a year after the attacks on the u.s. embassy in benghazi, the house passed a state reauthorization that strengthened embassy security by a lopsided 384-37 vote. the senate never took it up. this year there<u+2019>s actually been some senate movement on the issue. the senate foreign relations committee held a hearing on state department reauthorization in april and unanimously passed legislation in june. senator bob corker, the chair of the committee, wants to increase security for overseas embassies and streamline agency operations. among other provisions, the bill requires the white house to designate an interagency hostage recovery coordinator (which the administration has created on its own), requires the government to create a <u+201c>strategy for the middle east in the event of a comprehensive nuclear agreement with iran<u+201d> and expresses concern about russia<u+2019>s actions while reaffirming support for post-soviet nations. but corker<u+2019>s effort to attach the legislation to the national defense authorization act failed, and his office declined to say what his next move would be. for state-watchers, it<u+2019>s just another example of a long and humbling truth: washington cares more about the military than statecraft. while state hasn<u+2019>t been reauthorized in 13 years, the department of defense has been authorized every year for 53 years in a row. <u+201c>i chalk it up number one to the american public and congress cares, as a whole, less about funding the state department and more about the pentagon,<u+201d> said goldenberg. <u+201c>the pentagon,<u+201d> he said, <u+201c>is much sexier stuff.<u+201d>

the state department hasn<u+2019>t been authorized in 13 years

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the last time carly fiorina was here, the<u+00a0>former hewlett-packard chief <u+00ad>executive sketched out her <u+00ad>foreign policy blueprint. one thousand people heard her condemn the slow training of <u+00ad>anti-islamic state forces, the ambitions of china and the wonky <u+201c>tooth to tail<u+201d> ratio of military power to military bureaucracy. it was sober. it was serious. it was basically ignored. like much of this summer<u+2019>s political news, fiorina<u+2019>s july speech was subsumed by donald trump; it inspired only a fraction of the news searches that rolling stone attracted last week when it quoted trump seemingly making fun of her looks, according to google trends data. the rise of trump and of retired neurosurgeon ben carson, two first-time candidates who prefer broad strokes to policy debates, has left the republican establishment looking confused and helpless. originally expecting a clash of ideas among a diverse, talented field, the establishment<u+2019>s national security brahmins paired up with candidates and got to work <u+2014> only to be blown out of the conversation by trump. that has left some republicans hoping that wednesday<u+2019>s debate will break the fever <u+2014> and change the tenor of the race from flashy to substantive. hugh hewitt, the syndicated orange county radio host who will co-moderate the event, has promised to grill candidates about geopolitics and world leaders. if that happens, the debate will become a crucial test for trump and carson <u+2014> and for the staying power of their campaigns. [trump in texas: we are a dumping ground for the rest of the world] <u+201c>if this isn<u+2019>t the moment to finally get serious, when the hell will it be?<u+201d> asked sen. lindsey o. graham (s.c.), another republican presidential contender. <u+201c>is the next time we get serious about foreign policy going to be when we get attacked? everybody criticizes barack obama<u+2019>s foreign policy, everybody knows he has no strategy in iraq and syria, but we need something specific to replace that. if we don<u+2019>t hear that from the candidates, this week will have been a waste of time.<u+201d> graham is an unwilling mascot for how foreign policy has fallen out of the primary debate. just months ago, he was engaged in a near-daily debate with fellow gop candidate rand paul, the libertarian-leaning senator from kentucky, over issues including iran and the islamic state. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m running,<u+201d> graham said, <u+201c>because the world is falling apart.<u+201d> on wednesday afternoon, graham will join former senator rick santorum (pa.), another longtime washington hawk, at the four-man second-tier debate. santorum is at least invited to a policy-focused forum later this week in greenville, s.c., hosted by heritage action for america; graham, who lives near the venue, is not. that will leave the task of vetting carson and trump on wednesday to nine other candidates and the moderators. neither front-runner has laid out a specific plan for attacking the islamic state; trump consistently has told audiences that he has a secret plan that he cannot share lest the enemy find out. both candidates have been light on strategies for other crises. sen. john mccain (r-ariz.), chairman of the senate armed services committee and the 2008 republican presidential nominee, lamented how little attention has been paid to foreign policy. <u+201c>there certainly hasn<u+2019>t been very serious discussion of it, because of the nature of the campaign,<u+201d> mccain said. <u+201c>just rhetoric.<u+201d> mccain added about trump: <u+201c>he<u+2019>s not been asked tough questions. he<u+2019>s said he wants to deport 11<u+00a0>million people. how do you do that? he hasn<u+2019>t answered that question. he said in the middle east he would go, and quote, <u+2018>take their oil.<u+2019> i<u+2019>d like to know how you do that. i think the american people deserve an explanation.<u+201d> not all of them want one <u+2014> at least not yet. trump and carson both bombed interviews with hew<u+00ad>itt <u+2014> to no appreciable effect. in march, carson appeared not to realize that the baltic states were nato members. asked about the fumble, he explained that a president would have <u+201c>access to a lot of experts in a lot of areas<u+201d> and that he would not be stymied by gotcha questions. <u+201c>you don<u+2019>t want to devote all your attention to learning facts on a fact sheet,<u+201d> he said. his standing has grown dramatically since then. trump, under more scrutiny, fared even worse. he<u+2019>d previously told <u+201c>meet the press<u+201d> host chuck todd that his foreign policy advice came from watching sunday talk shows and talking to national security hawks. faced with hewitt<u+2019>s questions, trump seemed to confuse iran<u+2019>s quds forces for the decidedly non-iranian kurds, and he couldn<u+2019>t describe the difference between hezbollah and hamas. it was a disaster, compounded by fiorina<u+2019>s largely adroit answers to the same questions. yet like every <u+201c>disaster<u+201d> of trump<u+2019>s summer, it did not halt his momentum; in poll after poll, he has held his position as front-runner of the republican field since early july. hewitt, meanwhile, returned to his debate prep with some new thinking about how to really draw out the candidate. <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t think those questions, quiz questions about knowledge, tell you anything about understanding,<u+201d> hewitt said. <u+201c>knowing names is dumb. that<u+2019>s not necessary. i wish i had phrased my question to trump as: <u+2018>general soleimani, who leads the quds forces, is about to get $100<u+00a0>billion. what will the impact of that be?<u+2019> that<u+2019>s what i wanted to ask, and it went off the rails.<u+201d> it<u+2019>s true that trump<u+2019>s and carson<u+2019>s actual positions have been largely unexamined <u+2014> and have remained room-shaking applause lines at his rallies. trump offers audiences a vision of an america that<u+2019>s always <u+201c>winning,<u+201d> that learned from the iraq war (which he came out against 16 months after the invasion), that is ready to <u+201c>take the oil<u+201d> from conquered islamic state territory. <u+201c>we<u+2019>re going to have so many victories,<u+201d> he told more than 10,000 people in dallas on monday, <u+201c>at some point it<u+2019>s going to be coming out of your ears!<u+201d> he offered no more detail tuesday in los angeles when he delivered what was billed as a national security speech. <u+201c>we<u+2019>re going to make our military so big and so strong and so great <u+2014> it<u+2019>s going to be so powerful that no one is going to want to mess with us,<u+201d> he said. carson has offered a lower-decibel version of the same idea, minus the oil seizures. at a rally last week in anaheim, calif., carson said that some generals had told him that the islamic state could be defeated easily if the military<u+2019>s <u+201c>hands aren<u+2019>t tied.<u+201d> in anaheim, and at a later rally in a houston suburb, carson said he would oblige. <u+201c>i would use every resource, including financial resources, offensive and defense resources, covert and overt activities,<u+201d> he said in texas. <u+201c>i would use everything possible not to contain them but to destroy them.<u+201d> for the people who study foreign policy and try to shape the national conversation, the simple answers from carson and trump are frustrating <u+2014> yet totally understandable. the rise of the islamic state has stoked panic among some conservative voters, but it has not defined their conversations. in the most recent gallup poll, conducted in august, only 19<u+00a0>percent of voters listed a foreign policy issue as <u+201c>the most important problem facing this country today.<u+201d> only 3<u+00a0>percent said, specifically, that the biggest problem was the islamic state. the gop<u+2019>s hawks have tried, with little success, to sober up the base. former vice president richard b. cheney and his daughter liz reemerged last week with a book, <u+201c>exceptional,<u+201d> and an argument about how the party must rediscover its inner hawk. they sold 14,000 copies, according to nielsen<u+2019>s bookscan service. yet they were stymied by a problem bedeviling former florida governor jeb bush<u+2019>s white house bid: lingering ill will toward the administration of his brother, george w. bush. both trump and carson tell voters they are right to be skeptical of military adventures in the wake of the iraq war. the debate about what a <u+201c>serious<u+201d> foreign policy may look like has been paused, and every other candidate wants to change that. <u+201c>we haven<u+2019>t even begun the substance part of the campaign,<u+201d> said paul, who has fallen in most polls but will take part in the main debate. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s really been about celebrity and really sophomoric insults. i think the beginning of the decline of trump is at hand, might have begun with perry dropping out. the media and the voters may be starting to ask: <u+2018>oh, my goodness, we are promoting something bad for the country. do we want someone this unserious in charge of our nuclear arsenal?<u+201d> mike debonis in washington contributed to this report.

will wednesday<u+2019>s gop debate move the discourse from flash to substance?

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the retired neurosurgeon lashed out friday morning at reports of a recent closed-door meeting of republican establishment leaders focused on deep divisions within the gop electorate, particularly the continued strength of billionaire businessman donald trump. the washington post reported that the group, including republican national committee chairman reince priebus and senate majority leader mitch mcconnell, discussed the possibility of a "brokered national convention" if there isn't a clear winner in the party's months long primary election season. "if this was the beginning of a plan to subvert the will of the voters and replace it with the will of the political elite, i assure you donald trump will not be the only one leaving the party," carson said <u+00a0>in a statement that referenced trump's repeated threats to leave the gop if treated "unfairly." "i pray that the report in the post this morning was incorrect," carson added. "if it is correct, every voter who is standing for change must know they are being betrayed. i won't stand for it." the republican national committee did not immediately respond to questions about the meeting and carson's threat. a third-party run by carson or trump would be a nightmare scenario for the gop. while carson is slipping in recent polls, an independent bid that siphoned even a few percentage points away from the party's nominee could make it all but impossible for the republican nominee to win the general election. spokesman doug watts said carson was appalled at reports suggesting that republican leaders were trying to manipulate the party's presidential nominating process. he acknowledged that carson, like trump and the rest of republican field, signed a pledge not to launch a third-party bid. "the pledge isn't meaningless," watts said. "but he signed the pledge based on everybody playing by the rules."

carson threatens to leave republican party

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many see a double standard in the fbi's recommendation not to prosecute hillary clinton for her use of a personal email server. but some say there's good reason for that. us democratic presidential candidate hillary clinton has come under fire from the fbi for "extremely careless" handling of classified messages, which she kept on a personal server as secretary of state. is hillary clinton too big to fail? in other words, does her status as the presumptive democratic nominee for president protect her from criminal charges related to her use of a personal server for state department communications? that<u+2019>s what top republicans are saying in the wake of tuesday<u+2019>s announcement by federal bureau of investigation director james comey that the bureau won<u+2019>t recommend prosecution of mrs. clinton for her handling of classified emails. it<u+2019>s one reason why the gop-controlled house will hold a hearing thursday on the fbi<u+2019>s decision. that hearing could be a pivotal forum for clinton<u+2019>s foes. they<u+2019>d like to portray the former secretary of state as the undeserving beneficiary of what presumptive gop nominee donald trump labels a <u+201c>rigged system.<u+201d> after all, voters already give clinton low marks for trustworthiness. anything that reinforces that feeling could be good for the trump campaign. plus, it could keep the spotlight off mr. trump<u+2019>s own controversies <u+2013> at least, for a while. for trump supporters, extending the period of clinton<u+2019>s troubles is now job one. <u+201c>this is one of the reasons why people are so dissatisfied, so upset about government. they think that people live by a different set of rules, and the clintons, they take the candle on this one,<u+201d> said house speaker paul ryan during an appearance tuesday on megyn kelly<u+2019>s fox news show. mr. ryan and other clinton critics say that the split nature of director comey<u+2019>s press conference was disorienting. at first, the fbi director listed what clinton did wrong, noting among other things that on her private server she<u+2019>d sent and received messages that were classified at the time. her handling of secret material was <u+201c>extremely careless,<u+201d> comey said. it seemed as if he might be leading up to a recommendation that the justice department prosecute clinton, after all. and then he said, in essence, <u+201c>never mind." the agency would not urge the justice department to prosecute clinton, he said. <u+201c>no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case,<u+201d> according to comey. why not? president obama<u+2019>s justice department has a history of pursuing officials who leak secrets, points out journalist glenn greenwald, who wrote some of the initial reports on classified information provided by ex-national security agency contractor edward snowden. the obama administration has brought more cases under the 1917-era espionage act than all previous administrations combined. while the snowden case hinged on massive leaks, many of these prosecutions didn<u+2019>t. former central intelligence agency employee jeffrey alexander sterling and former nsa executive thomas andrews drake were both convicted of various charges related to small amounts of classified material. <u+201c>had someone who was obscure and unimportant and powerless done what hillary clinton did <u+2013> recklessly and secretly install a shoddy home server and worked with top secret information on it, then outright lied to the public about it when they were caught <u+2013> they would have been criminally charged long ago, with little fuss or objection,<u+201d> writes mr. greenwald at<u+00a0>the intercept. perhaps. motivation is a factor here, however. both messrs. sterling and drake leaked information to reporters. (as did mr. snowden, obviously.) clinton did not. in clinton<u+2019>s case, there is no evidence of clear and willful mishandling of intelligence, or any inference of disloyalty to the united states, according to the fbi<u+2019>s comey. that<u+2019>s a big reason why she wasn<u+2019>t charged. <u+201c>in looking back at our investigations into the mishandling or removal of classified information, we cannot find a case that would support bringing criminal charges on these facts,<u+201d> said comey at his tuesday press conference. but wasn<u+2019>t isn<u+2019>t the same as couldn<u+2019>t. under federal law, it<u+2019>s illegal to handle classified information with <u+201c>gross negligence.<u+201d> and comey himself said that clinton acted with <u+201c>extreme carelessness.<u+201d> aren<u+2019>t those phrases descriptions of pretty much the same thing? they might be. however, comey also emphasized that an examination of past cases played a large role in the fbi<u+2019>s decision on clinton. what that means, according to right-leaning washington post pundit jennifer rubin, is that the fbi did indeed think clinton had violated federal law <u+2013> but they could find no instances of anyone being prosecuted under the <u+201c>gross negligence<u+201d> standard. they weren<u+2019>t about to set a new precedent and blow up us presidential politics in the bargain. <u+201c>we actually do require a high level of proof for prosecuting high government officials so as to avoid politicized harassment of public officials,<u+201d><u+00a0>writes ms. rubin. <u+201c>call that a double standard of justice, but frankly it<u+2019>s one with which investigators and prosecutors are very familiar.<u+201d> rubin says this result will not satisfy everyone but might still be judicious. comey<u+2019>s description of clinton<u+2019>s actions regarding her email server was scathing. many of her defenses have been exposed as untruths. voters can now make up their own minds. it is not the fault of the fbi that clinton<u+2019>s electoral opponent is someone with even lower public approval ratings.

is hillary clinton too big to indict? (+video)

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baltimore <u+2014> when a few dozen members of the 300 men march movement paraded somberly past william stewart's west baltimore stoop tuesday afternoon, spreading their organization's message of peace and calm in matching black t-shirts, the 27-year-old rolled his eyes. he begrudgingly returned their "peace, brother" and "how y'all doing?" greetings. but he doesn't really agree with the stance the men who've dubbed themselves "baltimore's anti-violence movement" <u+2014> pleading for a stop to the violence and even physically separating protesters from police <u+2014> have taken. it's not that stewart is completely for the riots that erupted monday after the funeral of<u+00a0>freddie gray, a 25-year-old black man who died on april 19 after suffering a spinal injury while in police custody. but his personal experiences with the police and general hopelessness about the way people like he and gray <u+2014> who he says was a neighborhood acquaintance <u+2014> are treated won't let him be too strongly against them, either. "do i condone what they did? hell no. am i okay with it? yes, i am." "at the end of the day i don't condone them setting stores on fire," he said from his perch just blocks from where gray lived, in the city's gilmor homes (locals call it "gilmor projects") public housing development, on a dark street with faded multicolored rowhouses.<u+00a0>"but it got the point across. do i condone what they did? hell no. am i okay with it? yes, i am. because at the end of the day, you mean to tell me it takes 3,000 people to go all around one town for the mayor and the president to say something about what goes on in baltimore? it should have been happening for years." stewart is one of the everyday people in west baltimore who are invisible in the narrative that tends to pit the young people mayor stephanie rawlings-blake called "thugs" and obama called "criminals" against the ministers and civil rights leaders who've made desperate pleas at press conferences for "positive change" and "working together." stewart and others like him see the story of gray's death and the possibility that the officers will go unpunished as utterly predictable. they may not have participated in or celebrated the violence <u+2014> the looting, the setting fires, the destruction of local businesses <u+2014> but they're acutely aware that these things are exactly what forced a flood of national news outlets to show up where they live. their real despair over the all-too-familiar topic of police misconduct means that the riots, to them, were understandable. and even, in some ways, right. "y'all mad at the police! i know! i get it!" a middle-aged woman with a scarf wrapped around her dreadlocks shouted into the mic at a west baltimore block party when it was her speak from atop a box that served as a makeshift stage. in fact, just about everyone gets it: among black people in west baltimore, there's simply no question about whether grievances with the police are legitimate. this problem is well documented. the baltimore sun reported last september that the city has shelled out more than $5 million in the past four years in lawsuits accusing police officers of assaulting citizens <u+2014> most of whom were african-american and almost all of whom were ultimately cleared of criminal charges. the article chronicles outrageous brutality against victims including a 15-year-old boy, a pregnant woman, and a 65-year-old church deacon. "rough rides" <u+2014><u+00a0>when police vans are driven recklessly, sometimes seriously injuring passengers who are handcuffed and not wearing seat belts <u+2014> are common enough that the sun reported police have multiple alternative nicknames for the practice, including "screen test" and "bringing them up front." in response to the sun's investigation into brutality lawsuits, deputy commissioner jerry rodriguez, who leads the department's professional standards and accountability bureau, told the paper that officers are mandated to police in a manner that doesn't violate constitutional rights. "we will not let officers get away with any wrongdoing," rodriguez told the sun in 2014. "it will not be tolerated." the people who are living it, though, don't talk about "wrongdoing." they don't talk about "police misconduct," or use phrases like "a few bad policemen" or "racially biased policing" that you hear in media accounts of what's become a regular national story since<u+00a0>michael brown was killed by police officer darren wilson in ferguson, missouri, last august.<u+00a0>when they complain, they usually just say "the police" <u+2014> suggesting that in their minds, lawless, cruel treatment is not a recent plague or a problem with a few bad apples, but rather a permanent characteristic of the entire department's identity. a 45-year-old woman hovering half behind the screen door of a rowhouse just across from the gilmor homes, who didn't want to give her last name, shot nervous glances at her 23-year-old son, who sat visiting a friend in front of the house two doors down. "i worry about him every day, about something happening to him. [freddie gray] could have been mine. it could have been anyone's child," she said, adding, "i'm as worried about something happening to him with the police as i am about anyone else. it doesn't matter who you are. they think we're all the same. " stewart, who remembered gray as a "nice kid" and a "totally regular guy who never hurt anyone" said he himself could have easily been the one with the deadly spinal cord injury after an encounter with officers. <u+00a0>"that's how they treat us," he said. "they'll beat the shit out of you and lock you up. i've been arrested unjustly plenty of times." his neighbor, a 27-year-old named melvin who only wanted to give his first name, called the baltimore city police department "the biggest gang out here." he ticked off their tactics rather casually: "they've slapped my face for nothing ... they take us to other districts, just to get us beat up. they'll drop you somewhere far from where you live and leave you; they'll take the battery out of your phone... we're talking years and years of this shit. people's fed up with it." the consensus that this experience is so commonplace <u+2014> that being antagonized by the police without any remedy is simply part of life for black people in certain parts of baltimore <u+2014> is jarring. <u+00a0>"i haven't met a young person in their teenage years who hasn't been harassed," said noche dias, a 26-year-old youth organizer from new york city who traveled to baltimore after gray's death. "i've talked to mothers who have told me their sons were killed by police, and everyone says they've been treated like a criminal. everyone." baltimore's mostly young protestors who were blamed for multiple police injuries and looting monday night <u+2014> police were also caught on video throwing rocks back at them <u+2014> have been dismissed as everything from wholly irrational to purely criminal. by the end of the night, police said<u+00a0>20 officers were injured and over two dozen people were arrested. a cvs drugstore and a senior center had been destroyed by fire. the<u+00a0>national guard was called in, a state of emergency was declared in the city, baltimore public schools were closed, and a weeklong curfew was put in place. an earlier statement by mayor stephanie rawlings-blake appeared to have been ignored. "it is idiotic to think that by destroying your city, you're going to make life better for anybody," she'd said saturday,<u+00a0>as the protests first became violent. "too many people have spent generations building up this city for it to be destroyed by thugs who, in a very senseless way, are trying to tear down what so many have fought for." at a press conference tuesday, obama echoed these sentiments, saying rioters should be "treated as criminals" and accusing them not only distracting from "multiple days of peaceful protests that were focused on entirely legitimate concerns," but of being wholly counterproductive. "they're destroying and undermining opportunities and businesses in their own communities," he said. but according to mark d. smaller, the president of the american psychoanalytic association, the psychology of rioting means it shouldn't be written off quite so easily as pointless destruction. "these groups can become the vehicle for expressing anger, rage and helplessness," he said in an email to vox. "one must keep in mind that this behavior is not simply random, but a group or community's way of communicating their frustration at chronically not being<u+00a0>listened to, responded to, and finally marginalized." raphael blake, 40, who was walking somberly alone through tuesday's block party, sees riots as more than random. that's why, he said, while the violence saddens him, the protesters have good reason to be skeptical of the refrain of political and religious leaders <u+2014> and people like the members of the 300 men march group <u+2014> that the youth must calm down and look for peaceful solutions. "if you protest peacefully, they don't give a shit" "you want to <u+2018>sit down and compromise and talk,' but about what? these mayors, these preachers, they're trying to sugarcoat it, but the youth don't want to hear that shit, 'cause they're rubbing elbows with the oppressors. the kids might not understand the policy and politics exactly, but they understand what's happening to them. they might as well shut down the system," he said with a shrug. "they're already set up." stewart said his personal experience <u+2014> and his disappointment with the recommended peaceful approach <u+2014> won't allow him to criticize those who took the response to gray's death in a more destructive direction. "i was one of the ones who started the peaceful protests ... the first seven days [after gray's death], when it was fine and dandy. i walked about 101 miles in peace. but if you protest peacefully, they don't give a shit," he said. some even see the riots as rational. according to heather gautney, associate professor in fordham university's department of sociology and author of protest and organization in the alternative globalization era, this analysis makes some sense. "critics of the rioters claim there are alternative, more rational means of making social change and realizing justice, but what are these means?" she asked. "the rioters in baltimore and elsewhere know that the chances of making change within the system are few <u+2014> that the system has turned against them <u+2014> so they react with rage, a sense of abandon and revenge, and desire to tear it down and start anew." "why would you destroy your own neighborhood?" is a question that rang out on cable news as cameras recorded protesters destroying parts of ferguson last summer, and again as buildings burned in baltimore monday. the implication is that the destruction and violence is a meaningless, illogical response <u+2014> hurting one's own neighborhood to protest the actions of outsiders. but gautney said it's wrong to paint all riots as irrational outbursts. "riots like the ones we are seeing in baltimore, and before that in los angeles in 1992, should be viewed as rational responses to injustice," she said. "riots highlight the injustice and violence that's prevalent in impoverished neighborhoods in this country." and stewart <u+2014> as someone who lives in one of those neighborhoods <u+2014> can see how that could make the destruction ultimately worth it. "the cvs? they got insurance, they can rebuild. freddie gray had insurance, but it's not gonna bring back his life." the potential to highlight injustice is why paul, a 50-year-old born and raised in baltimore who initially dismissed this week's looting with a resigned, "it's teenagers. what are you gonna do?" said that when he saw the destruction to his community, it didn't particularly hurt him. "it was coming," he said. "they probably think this is gonna end up in the history books because they caused this ruckus. and you know what? they may be right."

in west baltimore, some residents see rioting as a rational response to daily despair

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the steak and eggs had just been served at davie<u+2019>s chuck wagon diner, in the suburbs of denver, when the discussion turned to conspiracy. <u+201c>they<u+2019>re gonna steal the election,<u+201d> said charlene hardcastle, a nurse in a <u+201c>colorado women for trump<u+201d> t-shirt. <u+201c>i think we<u+2019>ve all seen that on the internet.<u+201d> there were nods and murmurs of agreement from the assembled republican activists. this was not so much a campaign to elect donald trump <u+2013> it was an effort, in hardcastle<u+2019>s words, to <u+201c>shake the foundations of democracy<u+201d> should hillary clinton be declared the winner. <u+201c>we can get out the vote as much as we want, but if they recalibrate that voting machine, it<u+2019>s like <u+2013> forget it,<u+201d> she said. that was three months ago, the first of dozens of times i would hear similar complaints as i traveled the country with my colleague tom silverstone filming the guardian<u+2019>s anywhere but washington series, a 4,500-mile trip to eight mostly battleground states. trump has fueled talk of a rigged election in the final weeks of the campaign, but the loss of faith in america<u+2019>s political system has been brewing for years and bestrides both sides of the political system. recently a bernie sanders supporter cornered me in a cafe in tucson, arizona, to explain how she believed voting machines controlled by dick cheney awarded clinton an additional 3 million votes in the democratic primary. if there<u+2019>s a single theme to emerge from my encounters in states as varied as maine, wisconsin and nevada, it is abject disillusionment: a feeling everywhere that the country has been deprived of a serious election. instead of a conventional campaign, voters feel they have witnessed a netflix political drama, an outlandish plot consisting of a republican who is a former reality tv host, and unmasked as a sexual predator, and a democrat who, courtesy of an aide<u+2019>s husband<u+2019>s sexting habit, cannot shake the shadow of an fbi investigation. this is not politics <u+2013> it is entertainment. the tragedy is that while america has been binge-watching this made-for-tv spectacle, many have failed to notice how this election has shifted the ground beneath their feet. there are few places where the political landscape is turning to quicksand as quickly as mcdowell, the poorest county in west virginia. a forlorn place dotted with shuttered coalmines and abandoned homes, mcdowell was once a democratic heartland but is quickly shifting allegiance <u+2013> barack obama won there in 2008, but mitt romney took it by a wide margin in 2012. this year, it was the county in which trump won his highest percentage of primary votes. there are more than 3,000 counties in the us <u+2013> none voted for trump as overwhelmingly as mcdowell, where he secured 91.5% of the vote. how can it be that a tax-avoiding billionaire who flies around in a gold-plated private jet is most popular in a place where more than half the population lives off donations from a food bank? one reason is that there is hope in his promise <u+2013> dismissed by energy experts as unrealistic <u+2013> to revive a coalmining industry that is no longer profitable. <u+201c>we<u+2019>re going to put the miners back to work,<u+201d> he promised 12,000 people at a rally in west virginia days before the state<u+2019>s primary. <u+201c>we<u+2019>re going to get those mines open.<u+201d> but the roots of trump<u+2019>s popularity in places such as this precede his candidacy; indeed, they have been decades in the making. democrats in mcdowell have lost faith in their party, which has run the local government their entire lives and controlled the white house for most of the past quarter-century. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s our own fault,<u+201d> said martin west, the local sheriff, a democrat who will vote for trump. <u+201c>you keep voting for people that never come to assist you.<u+201d> the combined presidencies of bill clinton and obama have done little to arrest soaring inequality in america, and some would argue both presidents accelerated it. the situation in mcdowell, by almost every measure, has gotten progressively worse throughout that period. life expectancy <u+2013> the starkest gauge of all <u+2013> has declined continually since 1981. the high rate of suicide and the impact of the opioid epidemic have combined to put mcdowell<u+2019>s rates of mortality on par with ethiopia. <u+201c>none of us are that blind to think that trump is going to save all of us,<u+201d> said brian harrison, a coalminer who switched from democrat to republican eight years ago. <u+201c>but at least there<u+2019>s some hope.<u+201d> he added of trump: <u+201c>i think he<u+2019>s more for the working person than hillary is.<u+201d> there is evidence of blue-collar democrats fleeing to trump this election in other pockets of the industrial rust belt, including battleground states such as pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan and new hampshire. clinton still looks poised to win those states, all of which obama won in 2008 and 2012. but even if trump loses these places, his candidacy has peeled back the bandage to reveal democratic heartlands reeling from industrial decline. democrats might reassure themselves that trump<u+2019>s populist candidacy will not be easily repeated <u+2013> that no conventional republican will abandon free-market principles, as the real estate mogul has done, to embrace protectionist trade policy. but trump<u+2019>s appeal in parts of the country where manufacturing jobs have been outsourced overseas is not always connected to his specific opposition to the trans-pacific partnership or denunciation of china<u+2019>s currency manipulation. many voters just seem to appreciate his acknowledgment that towns and cities that were once booming are now in decay. <u+201c>people don<u+2019>t understand trade policies,<u+201d> said jos<u+00e9> arroyo, who has been working with the united steelworkers to stem the exodus of democratic voters around youngstown, an ohio city surrounded by abandoned, crumbling factories. <u+201c>what they do understand is that they used to work at a place that paid them $80,000 a year, and now they<u+2019>re working two jobs to make $30,000 a year.<u+201d> ohio is one of the obama states that trump does look likely to win, in part through his appeal in places such as youngstown to white, working-class voters without a college degree who previously identified as democrats. <u+201c>i used to call myself and others robot voters,<u+201d> said leo conway, a union worker and democrat voting republican for the first time in his life. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s the definition of insanity,<u+201d> he said of his previous party loyalty. <u+201c>you keep putting the same people in the same job and expect a different outcome.<u+201d> i met conway at a republican picnic in ohio<u+2019>s mahoning county, known as ground zero for these crossover voters. but he was not drawn to trump<u+2019>s economic message so much as his muscular military rhetoric and his anti-establishment appeal. in fact, barely anyone mentioned the area<u+2019>s industrial decline, which was most acute in the 1980s. instead, i heard people complain that illegal immigration is out of control, law and order is unraveling in the inner cities and government assistance is creating a lazy, welfare-dependent underclass. there is often a racial connotation to all of these grievances, one that trump has exploited, sometimes explicitly, but more often than not through an ugly brand of dog-whistle politics that has stoked racial tensions. those surfaced during my interview with trump<u+2019>s local campaign chair, kathy miller, who was forced to resign when we broadcast her comments. <u+201c>if you<u+2019>re black and you haven<u+2019>t been successful in the last 50 years, it<u+2019>s your own fault,<u+201d> miller said. <u+201c>you had all the advantages and didn<u+2019>t take advantage of it. it<u+2019>s not our fault, certainly.<u+201d> <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t think there was any racism until obama got elected,<u+201d> she added. <u+201c>we never had problems like this.<u+201d> eight years after the election of the first black president, some have framed trump<u+2019>s rise as some sort of <u+201c>backlash<u+201d> by a silent majority of mostly white men who resent their fading political power. there could be some merit to that analysis, but there seems to me an equal if not greater counterweight from the many people who feel offended and even threatened by the republican nominee. most of america is not in decay, and its increasingly diverse population creates a built-in advantage to any democrat seeking the white house. the challenge for clinton was always going to be reconvening the broad coalition of millennials, college-educated voters and minorities that twice helped elect obama. clinton, hamstrung by controversy, especially over her use of a private email server for government business, has struggled to articulate a positive vision of the future that could inspire these voters. the conversations i have had in supermarkets, churches and county fairs have made plain that while many voters see trump as an almost comical liability, their concerns with clinton take a more somber tone. she has frequently been described to me as untrustworthy, corrupt and uncaring, the epitome of a rotten political establishment. i<u+2019>ve seen neighborhoods across america, from the affluent suburbs of waukesha, wisconsin, to denver<u+2019>s sprawling suburbs, where well-kept lawns are dotted with <u+201c>hillary for prison<u+201d> yard signs. <u+201c>that<u+2019>s where she belongs,<u+201d> said bob howe, who had one such sign outside his hunting lodge in maine. <u+201c>frigging lying, cheating, thieving.<u+201d> in the face of such distrust, clinton<u+2019>s greatest asset has turned out to be her opponent, the only major presidential candidate in modern history who has been more unpopular than her. trump<u+2019>s extraordinary campaign has scrambled the electorate, winning unusual allies while giving many of the people i met a reason to vote. there was the woman in an ohio restaurant who showed me a picture of her two-year-old son who is partially deaf and has cerebral palsy. her voice shook and her eyes welled with tears as she recounted the rage she felt watching trump mocking a disabled person on tv. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m not a violent person,<u+201d> she said. <u+201c>but i just felt like strangling him.<u+201d> there was the barber in milwaukee, a city reeling from a succession of police shootings of black men, offended by trump<u+2019>s claim african americans like him have <u+201c>nothing to lose<u+201d>. <u+201c>we have a lot more to lose,<u+201d> he said, shaking his head. <u+201c>our lives.<u+201d> and there are the many people like carmela perez, a mexican american who has raised seven children in a mobile home on the outskirts of las vegas and has dedicated the past four months to electing clinton. if the polls are correct, it is people like her <u+2013> latinos and women <u+2013> who are poised to support the democratic nominee in record numbers this election. perez took a leave of absence from her job washing dishes at the mgm casino to join clinton<u+2019>s army of ground operatives in nevada after she heard the republican nominee insult mexicans. she said trump<u+2019>s comments about women steeled her determination, canvassing for clinton six days a week in the desert heat. by election day, she will have knocked on 5,000 doors. <u+201c>for me, this is personal,<u+201d> perez said. <u+201c>i feel very offended, wounded. he stabbed me in my guts.<u+201d> no billionaire owner, no shareholders. just independent, investigative reporting that fights for the truth, whatever the cost. why not support it? become a guardian us member for $49 a year, or make a contribution.

pain, anger and fear: us voters deprived of a serious presidential election

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(cnn) with the clerk who had refused them in jail, william smith jr. and james yates on friday morning became the first same-sex couple to receive a marriage license in rowan county, kentucky. in what was their sixth attempt this summer, smith and yates pressed through a throng of reporters and picked up the marriage license they'd been seeking since the u.s. supreme court legalized same-sex marriage in june they emerged holding hands shortly after the courthouse opened at 8 a.m., as opponents booed and supporters cheered and chanted, "love wins!" "we're just really ... happy right now to finally get married and have it recognized here," yates, who proposed to smith this summer after a 10-year relationship, said shortly before getting the license. but county clerk kim davis sent word from the county jail that she considers marriage licenses void unless she approves them, according to her lawyer, mat staver. "they are not worth the paper they are written on," he said at a friday afternoon press conference after visiting davis in jail. a federal judge ordered her to jail thursday, ruling she was in contempt of court for refusing to issue the licenses and not allowing her deputies to distribute them for her. u.s. district judge david bunning said davis would remain behind bars until she complies. five of her deputies agreed thursday to issue marriage licenses in her absence, allowing smith and yates -- and any other couple -- to pick theirs up friday. how long will davis stay in jail? staver said davis has no plans to resign and would remain in jail until a compromise is reached. he said his client would be willing to issue licenses if her name and title were not on them. davis' husband, joe, told reporters friday that his wife was willing to stay in jail until that proposed compromise happened. "as long as it takes," joe davis said. "hopefully (kentucky gov. steve) beshear will have the guts to do his job." staver also criticized beshear on friday, saying, "she is incarcerated not because of anything she's done but because of what the governor has failed to do." he said the governor could issue an executive order to solve the problem. the state legislature could pass a law removing clerks' names from the licenses, but it won't be in session until january. beshear said this week he won't call lawmakers for a special session to deal with the issue, adding that to do so would cost "hundreds of thousands of dollars of taxpayers' money." beshear on thursday welcomed the news that davis' deputies agreed to issue the licenses. "the future of the rowan county clerk continues to be a matter between her and the courts. deputy clerks have said they will commence issuing marriage licenses beginning (friday)," he said. "it appears that the citizens of rowan county will now have access to all the services from the clerk's office to which they are entitled." but american civil liberties union attorneys contended davis has no legal basis to avoid performing her duties as a government clerk. a federal prosecutor said it was time for davis and her county to comply. "government officials are free to disagree with the law, but not disobey it," u.s. attorney kerry b. harvey said in a statement. "the county clerk has presented her position through the federal court system, all of the way to the u.s. supreme court. it is time for the clerk and the ccunty to follow the law." "her good faith belief is simply not a viable defense," bunning said. jailing was 'not what everyone was hoping for' staver, founder of liberty counsel, which represented davis, said he was stunned by thursday's ruling ordering davis to jail. "knowing kim davis and her strong christian resolve and convictions, she may be jailed behind bars, but her conscience remains free," he told cnn's "the lead with jake tapper" on thursday. yates, who received the marriage license with smith on friday, said he, too, was shocked by davis' jailing. "that's not what everyone was hoping for," yates said, adding that same-sex marriage supporters were instead hoping davis would be fined or that she would resign. "it was a shock, but there have been so many things that we didn't anticipate." daniel canon, an attorney who was working with the aclu on the case against davis, said his clients had not asked for davis to be jailed. but now that she is, he said, there should be "some assurance that ms. davis is not going to continue to impose her religious beliefs." ryan anderson, a senior research fellow at the heritage foundation, a washington-based conservative think tank, said the state legislature should remove clerks' names from the licenses as davis has asked. "hopefully she'll get out of jail because the state of kentucky will realize that there are compromises we can reach that will protect both the rights of gays and lesbians to receive marriage licenses and the rights of someone like kim davis not to have her name on that marriage license," he said. anderson acknowledged that davis could resign, but he said she shouldn't have to. "we have a rich history in the united states of accommodating conscientious objectors," anderson said. "kentucky accommodates conscientious objectors for other types of licensings. ... the question should be: if we can accommodate someone, why shouldn't we?" beshear, the governor, says he has no power to remove davis from office. smith said the license denials had taken an emotional toll. during the fifth and final time he and yates were rejected, people were protesting against them outside the courthouse, he said. "we had our hearts broken. that's upsetting enough, and you come out the door and they start cheering and clapping, and i just started crying. i couldn't stop for a while -- i was pretty upset," smith said. the couple looked wary as journalists surrounded them as they left the courthouse friday. one said he didn't anticipate being the first to get the license, but instead believed two other couples had intended to arrive before them. they said they were happy and elated before asking reporters to make way so they could leave. davis said she's a different person since becoming a christian 4<u+00bd> years ago. "i am not perfect," she said in a statement. "no one is. but i am forgiven." staver said davis occupies a cell by herself. she slept well the first night and has been studying the bible, he said. "she has a clean conscience even though she's incarcerated behind these bars," he said.

after kim davis is jailed, marriage license issued

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the<u+00a0>white house correspondents' dinner has become a strange event. it is, ostensibly, an evening when the president and the press can come together to share a few lighthearted laughs. but it's evolved into a recital of brutal truths <u+2014> albeit one neither side ever really admits happened. the joke of president obama's performance on saturday was that he wasn't joking. everyone just had to pretend he was. take this section, from the official white house transcript: the tip-off there is, "it's the right thing to do." that's not a joke. that's obama's actual justification for the aggressive executive actions of his second term <u+2014> "fuck it, it's the right thing to do." but the norms of politics are such that he typically has to frame his actions as routine, dull, even necessary. he has to search for precedent and downplay the consequences. it's only on the evening of the white house correspondents' dinner when he can say what everyone already knows: his actions are huge, they are controversial, they push the norms of american politics, but fuck it, at a moment when american politics seems increasingly broken, obama has decided to just go ahead and do what he thinks is right. then there was this line: it's funny, sure. but he's not kidding. it's just the thing obama can't usually say. the humor is in the shock of him actually saying it. but the place where obama stopped being polite and started getting real was when he brought out luther, his personal anger translator. this was, itself, a way of giving up the game. the luther joke comes from the comedy central sketch show key and peele, and the point of it is that obama, as the first black president, is not allowed to express his anger, as america is terrified of angry black men. and so he's got luther <u+2014> the angry black man who can say what he can't. on key and peele, though, it really is a joke. key plays luther. peele plays obama. it's two comedians commenting on race and politics. but at the white house correspondents' dinner, the whole point was that the joke isn't a joke at all. it was key playing luther, but it was obama playing obama. obama's anger translator was actually translating for obama, working off a script that had to be approved by obama. and so when luther spoke, now he really was speaking for obama: the president: in our fast-changing world, traditions like the white house correspondents<u+2019> dinner are important. luther: i mean, really, what is this dinner? (laughter.) and why am i required to come to it? (laughter.) jeb bush, do you really want to do this? (laughter.) the president: because despite our differences, we count on the press to shed light on the most important issues of the day. luther: and we can count on fox news to terrify old white people with some nonsense! (laughter.) "sharia law is coming to cleveland. run for the damn hills!" (laughter.) y<u+2019>all, it<u+2019>s ridiculous. (laughter.) the president: we won<u+2019>t always see eye to eye. luther: oh, and cnn, thank you so much for the wall-to-wall ebola coverage. for two whole weeks, we were one step away from the walking dead. (laughter.) and then you all got up and just moved on to the next day. that was awesome. oh, and by the way, just if you haven<u+2019>t noticed, you don<u+2019>t have ebola! (laughter.) the president: but i still deeply appreciate the work that you do. luther: y'all remember when i had that big, old hole in the bottom of the gulf of mexico and then i plugged it? remember that? which "obama<u+2019>s katrina" was that one? was that 19? or was it 20? because i can<u+2019>t remember. (laughter.) there are no jokes there. there's just obama saying what he has to say and luther saying what obama actually believes. and what obama believes is that the press is often sensational, trivial, and fearmongering. he thinks they hype negative stories for weeks on end and then refuse to admit their mistake when the horror fizzles. he thinks he gets the blame for catastrophes but little credit for solutions. he thinks the media has a deep bias toward negative stories (which, of course, we do). but if obama is annoyed at the press, he is appalled at republicans who deny climate change <u+2014> and are trying to block him from taking action to stop climate change. obama believes global warming a generational threat, and so when he sees james inhofe, the chair of the senate's committee on environment and public works,<u+00a0>throwing snowballs on the chamber's floor, well, his thoughts on that would likely be seen as unpresidential if he gave them voice. except on the night of the white house correspondents' dinner: the president: the science is clear. nine of the ten hottest years ever came in the last decade. luther: now, i<u+2019>m not a scientist, but i do know how to count to 10. (laughter.) luther: we<u+2019>ve got mosquitos. sweaty people on the train, stinking it up. it<u+2019>s just nasty. (laughter.) the president: i mean, look at what<u+2019>s happening right now. every serious scientist says we need to act. the pentagon says it<u+2019>s a national security risk. miami floods on a sunny day, and instead of doing anything about it, we<u+2019>ve got elected officials throwing snowballs in the senate! luther: okay, mr. president. okay, i think they<u+2019>ve got it, bro. the president: it is crazy! what about our kids? what kind of stupid, shortsighted, irresponsible bull -- (laughter and applause.) luther: all due respect, sir. you don<u+2019>t need an anger translator. (laughter.) you need counseling. so the joke here was that obama is so angry about the republican party's climate denialism that he even managed to scare his anger translator. this isn't a joke. it's just obama's opinion, delivered with a fury that's rarely allowed in american politics. read these sentences again: "every serious scientist says we need to act. the pentagon says it's a national security risk. miami floods on a sunny day, and instead of doing anything about it, we've got elected officials throwing snowballs in the senate!" is there a single one of them that you think obama doesn't believe?<u+00a0>he gets right up to the first syllable of calling it "bullshit." but since he said it at the white house correspondents' dinner, he can just say he's kidding, even though everyone knows he's not kidding in the least. to paraphrase bruce banner, obama's secret is he's always angry, at least about this stuff <u+2014> but the white house correspondents' dinner is the only weekend of the year in which he's allowed to show it, because the press has promised, for that one day of the year, to pretend they didn't notice.

the joke was that obama wasn<u+2019>t joking

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israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu forcefully argued against a nuclear deal with iran, telling a joint meeting of congress on tuesday that such an agreement would have the opposite effect of what the international community intends because it would effectively supply iran with the means to produce a nuclear weapon. the agreement being negotiated <u+201c>doesn<u+2019>t block iran<u+2019>s path to the bomb; it paves iran<u+2019>s path to the bomb,<u+201d> netanyahu said. <u+201c>so why would anyone make this deal?<u+201d> netanyahu's speech generated a swirl of controversy before it was even delivered and laid bare fissures between the prime minister and the obama administration. netanyahu used the address to paint iran as a sponsor of terrorism that is aggressively marching across the middle east and would exploit a deal to satisfy its own nuclear ambitions. netanyahu said the country's "tentacles of terror" pose a "grave threat" to<u+00a0>israel and the world. the prime minister expressed his concerns<u+00a0>about enriched uranium and iranian nuclear research and development, as well as his worries about the approach taken to the international nuclear talks. "this is a bad deal. a very bad deal. we are better off without it," he said. "why should iran<u+2019>s radical regime change for the better when it can enjoy the best of both worlds? aggression abroad, prosperity at home?" he was greeted with raucous applause in the house chamber and was interrupted numerous times by standing ovations. <u+201c>we must all stand together to stop iran<u+2019>s march of conquest, subjugation and terror," he said, asserting that iran<u+00a0>and the islamic state are "competing for the crown of militant islam." [the complete transcript of netanyahu's address to congress] meanwhile, secretary of state john f. kerry and iranian foreign minister mohammad javad zarif were talking in geneva on tuesday ahead of a march 24 deadline on the framework for a nuclear deal. speaking in the oval office, president obama said netanyahu "didn't offer any viable alternatives" to prevent iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. obama was on a teleconference call on ukraine and other issues with other world leaders, including british prime minister david cameron, and did not watch the speech.<u+00a0>"i did have a chance to take a look at the transcript, and as far as i can tell there was nothing new," he said. "the central question is how can we stop them from getting a nuclear weapon?" obama said. a senior u.s. official said that "simply demanding that iran completely capitulate is not a plan" and would not garner international support. this person said the united states has been using, and continues to use, the pressure of sanctions to try to achieve a deal, and it does not trust the iranian regime. the negotiations are insisting on transparency and "are not an opening to a rapprochement with iran," this person said, and their clear objective has been to prevent iran from acquiring a weapon. "the logic of the prime minister<u+2019>s speech is regime change, not a nuclear speech," this person said. netanyahu said a deal would only "whet iran's appetite" for more nuclear material. he evoked hemingway, asserting that a deal would be a "farewell to arms control," and<u+00a0>said it would cause the middle east to be "criss-crossed by nuclear trip wires." he<u+00a0>deployed<u+00a0>a<u+00a0>physics lesson<u+00a0>on uranium and centrifuges to help make his case -- one the administration said was short on specifics. the prime minister spoke of the jewish holiday of purim, which begins wednesday night. it celebrates the jewish book of esther, which describes a high-ranking member of the persian empire plotting to kill jews -- a plot<u+00a0> foiled by queen esther, who is jewish. "today the jewish people face another attempt by yet another persian potentate to destroy us," netanyahu said. [how to tie moses, "game of thrones" and iran together in one speech] netanyahu praised obama, publicly attempting to<u+00a0>paper<u+00a0>over some of the tensions that erupted between the israeli government and the administration since the speech was announced in january. the temperature<u+00a0>reached a boiling point last week. netanyahu also thanked congress for approving money for israel's iron dome missile defense system. "we appreciate all that president obama has done for israel," netanyahu said to applause. some of what the president has done, he said, isn't known publicly, but is known to netanyahu. "i know that my speech has been the subject of much controversy. i deeply regret that some perceive my being here as political. that was never my intention," netanyahu said. he thanked democrats and republicans for their support for israel. the relationship between the two countries, he said, "has always been above politics" and "must always remain above politics." house speaker john a. boehner (r-ohio)<u+00a0>invited<u+00a0>netanyahu to speak, without consulting the white house in advance; critics have described his decision as a<u+00a0>breach<u+00a0>of protocol. obama said he would not meet with the prime minister because the visit comes too close to the israeli elections on march 17. there is bipartisan<u+00a0>legislation<u+00a0>before congress that would impose additional sanctions on iran. obama has said he would veto the bill because it would undermine the talks with iran. boehner said in a statement that the speech was one that<u+00a0>"the american people needed to hear, plain and simple. it addressed the gravity of the threats we face and why we cannot allow a nuclear iran, or any semblance of a path to a nuclear iran." the netanyahu speech was<u+00a0>extraordinary, both for the content and the controversy which it has generated. last week, national security adviser susan e. rice said the speech would be "destructive" to u.s.-israeli relations and inject partisanship into their association. she and obama tried to turn down the temperature monday; obama said<u+00a0>it was a distraction that would not permanently undermine relations. netanyahu's political future is at stake. he faces a potentially difficult reelection to an unprecedented fourth term on march 17. the speech was delayed by five minutes in israel, where it ran in the evening, so that the country's electoral monitors could screen it for illegal campaigning. house minority leader nancy pelosi (d-calif.), who left the chamber as netanyahu was saying goodbyes, said in a statement she was "saddened by the insult to the intelligence of the united states as part of the p5 +1 nations, and saddened by the condescension toward our knowledge of the threat posed by iran and our broader commitment to preventing nuclear proliferation." most who did not show up cited a combination of factors, including a reticence to participate in what they described as the politicization of the u.s.-israel relationship and as a protest to the perceived affront of inviting a foreign leader without conferring with obama. rep. gerald e. connolly (d-va.), who faced pressure from israel supporters after he said he was undecided on attending, said he "anguished" over the decision but "finally came to the conclusion that i can go without compromising any principle." the u.s.-israel relationship<u+00a0>"supercedes this prime minister and his behavior," connolly said.<u+00a0>"i cherish and value that relationship<u+00a0>and<u+00a0>want to<u+00a0>make a<u+00a0>statement about that." with nearly a quarter of the<u+00a0>232 congressional democrats saying they would skip the speech, some<u+00a0>republicans seized on the division. on monday, sen. lindsey o. graham (r-s.c.) called the no-shows<u+00a0>"petty" and "immature." "i think it's a mistake for a member of congress to miss a speech of this importance," graham said. "the politics of the moment pale in comparison to the long-term consequences of a bad deal with iran." obama and rice gave a glimpse monday of what a potential nuclear deal could look like. obama said in an interview with reuters that the united states is prepared to agree if iran "is willing to agree to double-digit years of keeping their [nuclear] program where it is right now and, in fact, rolling back elements of it that currently exist.... if we<u+2019>ve got that, and we<u+2019>ve got a way of verifying that, there<u+2019>s no other steps we can take that would give us such assurance that they don<u+2019>t have a nuclear weapon.<u+201d> although rarely mentioned, another<u+00a0>complication in the nuclear talks is israel<u+2019>s own undeclared -- but widely assumed -- nuclear program and its snub of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, or npt, which oversees the spread of nuclear technology around the world. iran has repeatedly accused the west of applying what it calls a <u+201c>double standard<u+201d> on nuclear issues -- a clear reference to israel. iran is a signatory of the npt; israel is not. publicly, israel neither confirms nor denies that it has nuclear weapons. but many experts in nuclear arms believe that israel has extensive capabilities. in 1986, mordechai vanunu, a disgruntled israeli technician at a suspected nuclear facility, leaked photos to a british newspaper that led foreign experts to conclude that israel had a large nuclear arsenal. israeli intelligence agents later arrested vanunu in rome. obama said the goal is to ensure there is a year-long lag between any potential decision by iran to build a nuclear weapon and when it can actually produce one.<u+00a0>netanyahu said the position doesn't go far enough. "no country has a greater stake -- no country has a greater stake than israel in a good deal that peacefully removes this threat," netanyahu said.

netanyahu warns that nuclear deal <u+2018>paves iran<u+2019>s path<u+2019> to a bomb

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salt lake city (cnn) in a less volatile election cycle, the notion that democrats would be on offense in red states like utah, arizona and georgia would suggest the presidential race was effectively over. no one is willing to make that kind of bet in a race that has defied all political norms. but as donald trump's downward spiral continues in round after round of battleground polls, and the hillary clinton campaign has begun to dabble in ruby-red states, democrats are clearly feeling bullish. some are now openly mulling the possibility of a clinton blowout in november. even trump acknowledged thursday that his campaign was "having a tremendous problem in utah," a reliably republican state where mitt romney won more than 70% of the vote in 2012 and the hunger for another choice ushered independent candidate evan mcmullin, who has strong ties to utah and the lds community, into the presidential race this week. there are far too many variables at play over the next three months for anyone to say with certainty how the race will end. the two major candidates are intensely disliked by the electorate. this week, clinton has once again been shadowed by the controversy over her emails and her ties to the clinton foundation as secretary of state. trump is a contender who has shown an extraordinary level of resilience in overcoming controversy. but mitch stewart, who was the obama campaign's battleground states director in 2012, said clinton's strengthened position could dramatically reconfigure the electoral map for democrats -- helping to lay groundwork for a democratic transformation of states like arizona and georgia that were not expected to be competitive until 2020 or 2024. "in 2008 when we won by six or seven points, we got relatively close in a state like georgia, and would have gotten close in a state like arizona if john mccain hadn't been senator there," stewart said. "if you add three, or four, or five points on top of that -- which is where secretary clinton is right now --- it makes sense that arizona and georgia are basically tied. that's where the race is given the strength of her candidacy and the weakness of his." clinton could be looking at a sweep of the map that could net as many as 380 electoral votes, stewart said: potentially "a massive, massive win." the clinton campaign is taking pains not to look overconfident at this early juncture. it says she has always hoped to organize in all 50 states to aid down-ballot democratic candidates. moreover, clinton and allies are not spending any real money in those three red states yet. but they are gearing up for a six-figure investment in field operations and voter registration in arizona and georgia that would force trump to defend his position in those states. "some states may flip and some states may not change overnight, but being focused on organizing is something that's important, particularly this year because it's a dynamic race," said marlon marshall, clinton's director of state campaigns and political engagement. "our goal is to figure out how we get to 270 electoral votes in the most efficient way, and if that means that there's a couple different pathways that could potentially open up, we must explore them." the race will be still be won or lost this year in the battlegrounds of ohio, pennsylvania and florida where trump looked competitive before his summer series of unforced errors. a new round of polls from quinnipiac and nbc/wall street journal/marist show that she has moved into a double-digit lead over trump in pennsylvania, while displaying a narrow edge over trump in ohio. the race in florida is a virtual tie. trump's advisers insist that they are still poised to win arizona, georgia and utah, and that they have many paths to 270 electoral votes, but his weakened position in states that romney won easily in 2012 raises serious questions about the viability of his candidacy. before trump ever entered the picture, republicans were facing a difficult electoral map, because 18 states and the district of columbia have voted democratic in the last six presidential cycles --- essentially giving democrats a base of 242 electoral votes on their path to 270. trump has boasted that his unusual appeal will put some of those reliable democratic states in play, including michigan (16 electoral votes), pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), and wisconsin (10 electoral votes). but so far there is little evidence that is true, and few political strategists can map out a path to victory for trump unless he wins all the states that romney won in 2012, including arizona, georgia and utah. "trump has driven away a big chunk of voters that used to be solid republican voters. that puts states in play that should not be in play," said republican strategist kevin madden. "the electoral map was already hard to begin with, given the demographic shifts in battleground states likes colorado and virginia. trump just made it harder by finding a way to be more unpopular and more unlikeable than the most unpopular and unlikeable democratic nominee in modern history." arizona has long held potential for democrats because of its growing hispanic population, but the movement in their direction has been accelerated by trump's divisive rhetoric about mexicans and immigration. in georgia, democratic groups have made a huge push to register growing numbers of minority voters, particularly targeting black and hispanic voters who live around atlanta. (romney won arizona by 10 points and georgia by 8 points in 2012.) but it is deep-red utah that has revealed the deep vulnerabilities of trump's candidacy this year. romney's 2012 showing was in part because of the strength of his candidacy among mormon voters who make up 60% of the state's population. republicans george w. bush captured 72% in 2004 and john mccain 63% in 2008. trump and clinton were virtually tied in some utah surveys earlier this year, and chris karpowitz, co-director of brigham young university's center for the study of elections and democracy, noted that trump has been unable to break 40% in the most recent utah polls. libertarian gary johnson has been surging in utah, and mcmullin jumped into the mix this week. "republicans begin any election in the state of utah with an enormous advantage," karpowitz said. "but there are many utahans who are very conflicted, and very ambivalent about his candidacy." trump's biggest hurdle is among conservative mormon voters, who have been appalled by his tone, as well as his call for travel ban on muslims -- the kind of singling out of a religious minority that carries echoes of the discrimination that members of the church of jesus christ of latter-day-saints faced historically. "there is a conflict between their political identity and some core religious values that they hold dear," said karpowitz. "so when donald trump talks about a religious test for immigration or talks about refugees in ways that seem disrespectful or dismissive of their concerns or needs, that resonates with some members of the lds church." clinton attempted to tap into to the antipathy for trump within that huge voting bloc, by writing in the in the deseret news this week about her opposition to trump's call for a muslim ban and her work on religious liberty as secretary of state. still, back in june, utah voters were ready to give trump a second chance even after giving him his lowest vote total of any primary or caucus, said kirk jowers, an election attorney who is the former director of the hinckley institute of politics at the university of utah. "we wanted to vote for a republican nominee as we have done in every election since 1964, and hillary clinton is certainly is not the one who could steal some of those votes away in a normal election," jowers said. "but his behavior, particularly in august, has been so outrageous. he doubled down on all the things that were most offensive to us.... this doubling down that he's been doing has made it close to impossible for us to get on board." many of the voters who gathered at mcmullin's official launch wednesday night expressed those kinds of sentiments and their disgust with trump. at the event to recruit volunteers to gather signatures for mcmullin, who needs 1,000 by next monday to qualify for the utah ballot, a number of attendees said they had heard about mcmullin's candidacy on facebook and were drawn to his conservative background and his biography as a former cia operative. even though mcmullin has little -- or no chance -- of winning the presidency, given that ballot access deadlines have passed in all but 14 states, a number of voters said they were thrilled to have a candidate they felt comfortable backing. victoria bearden, a 36-year-old republican from salt lake city, was one of many who approached mcmullin after his speech to thank him for giving her a choice. until mcmullin, she had been planning to sit out the presidential race: "i never thought i'd have to do that, because it just shows you how awful it is. and i know there's millions of people out there feeling the same way i do." "i thought i was a republican, but now i'm not sure what i am," added bearden, a former ballet dancer who has two young children. "i just feel like trump is incompetent; he's crazy, and he's going to be more divisive than where we already are as a country. i just can't trust the man." when she's discussed mcmullin's candidacy with friends, she said, some have noted that she just might be throwing away her vote and helping elect hillary clinton. "at this point, it's like 'why not?'" she said. "donald trump is not going to win, and i think people need to stand up and show that they're not happy with either [candidate] ... if we go with our conscience and our heart, then you never know -- it's america. anything is possible."

democrats see chance to reshape map as trump stumbles

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the us and cuba normalized relations one year ago thursday. small changes have begun to percolate, but there's debate over whether that's progress. how snl's 'the bubble' sketch about polarization is all too true los angeles dodgers player yasiel puig, from cuba, holds a young baseball player as he poses for photos before giving a baseball clinic to children in havana, cuba, wednesday. when yasiel puig, the los angeles dodgers rightfielder and cuban defector, was able to return home for a baseball goodwill tour this week without fear of detention by cuban authorities, it was a sure sign of progress a year into the normalization of relations between the united states and cuba. so is the expanded public internet access that cubans now enjoy, something the cuban government agreed to as part of the deal struck between president obama and cuban president ra<u+00fa>l castro a year ago thursday. and so too is the agreement the two governments reached this week to resume direct commercial airline flights between the two neighboring countries for the first time in decades. but for all that has changed in a year between the two longtime antagonists, much remains the same, both supporters and detractors of mr. obama<u+2019>s opening to cuba say. the five-decade-old us economic embargo on cuba remains, with little prospect of congress lifting it anytime soon, while critics of normalization say the policy has yielded no improvement in the communist government<u+2019>s respect for human and political rights. <u+201c>certainly it was a big step forward and there was reason for the great elation last year when president obama and ra<u+00fa>l castro announced their intention to normalize relations, and we do have positive results to see from that,<u+201d> says wayne smith, a former us diplomat in cuba who is now a senior fellow of the center for international policy<u+2019>s cuba project in washington. <u+201c>however it<u+2019>s been something of a disappointment as well,<u+201d> he adds, <u+201c>mainly over the inability to lift the embargo.<u+201d> not just the embargo, but the status of the us military prison at guant<u+00e1>namo bay in cuba and the resolution of property claims between the two sides dating from the cuban revolution also loom as stumbling blocks, mr. smith says, <u+201c>these big, complex issues have us somewhat stymied.<u+201d> for their part, opponents of renewed relations say the cuban government<u+2019>s continued disregard for human rights and political freedoms is the strongest argument against closer ties <u+2013> and proof that no amount of concessions will prompt the castro regime to change. <u+201c>what we<u+2019>ve seen instead of improvements is a huge spike in repression and in violence against the political opposition, repeated arrests of the same dissidents, and churches being shut down,<u+201d> says ana quintana, a latin america policy analyst at the heritage foundation in washington. <u+201c>because the obama administration awarded these renewed relations without demanding anything in return,<u+201d> she adds, <u+201c>the us has lost its position of leverage.<u+201d> obama continues to call for an end to the embargo, which he considers a cold war relic, but no one expects the republican-controlled congress to oblige him <u+2013> particularly not in an election year. as a result, analysts like smith say they expect <u+201c>official<u+201d> change to continue slowly <u+2013> even as a transformation in the relationship between the two countries accelerates as <u+201c>people-to-people<u+201d> contacts expand. <u+201c>a congress rushing to lift the embargo isn<u+2019>t going to happen,<u+201d> smith says, <u+201c>but already we<u+2019>ve seen a notable impact on the personal relations between cubans and americans, and that<u+2019>s going to continue.<u+201d> more americans are traveling to cuba <u+2013> although the embargo still prevents them from visiting the island (and spending money) simply as tourists. academic exchanges and <u+201c>educational tours<u+201d> are quickly expanding. at the same time, the improved public wi-fi availability in cuba and eased travel restrictions for cuban-americans mean that contact between the island and cuban communities in the us now is much like that for other immigrant communities from around the hemisphere. some members of congress marked the first anniversary of obama<u+2019>s opening to cuba by hailing the impact of the <u+201c>small steps<u+201d> that cubans and american have taken toward each other. <u+201c>as american business leaders, scientists, academics, and artists are increasingly engaging in purposeful travel to cuba, they are forging important new relationships with the cuban people and supporting the country<u+2019>s rising entrepreneurial class,<u+201d> said sen. ben cardin of maryland, the top democrat on the foreign relations committee, in a statement thursday. he called on congress to <u+201c>take steps to make the obama administration<u+2019>s advances permanent and lift all restrictions on american citizens traveling to cuba.<u+201d> there is also evidence that the normalization of bilateral relations has prompted a surge in cubans migrating to the us. a widespread fear in cuba that <u+201c>normal<u+201d> relations will prompt the us to soon drop the special immigration status for cubans reaching the us has led nearly 50,000 island residents to leave for the us this year.<u+00a0>cubans who reach us soil are allowed to stay and are granted residency, while those who are caught at sea are turned back. the number of cubans arriving this year is more than double last year<u+2019>s total <u+2013> and about five times higher than in 2011. senator cardin said the normalization of relations has resulted in <u+201c>small but important changes on the island.<u+201d> but he noted that the government continues to jail political activists and restrict <u+201c>the emergence of a free press,<u+201d> and he called on the cuban government to make <u+201c>meaningful progress<u+201d> in <u+201c>the second year of renewed engagement.<u+201d> critics say there's no reason to expect cuba to change. <u+201c>a year of stepped-up attacks on the cuban people<u+2019>s freedoms should not leave anyone thinking that somehow there will be a positive transition in the second year<u+201d> of renewed relations, says ms. quintana of heritage. as for the power of people-to-people engagement, quintana says she doubts it can have much impact in the case of cuba, where she says a fearful government does its best to limit contact between average cubans and visiting americans. <u+201c>spending time with americans is considered subversive activity, so anyone who does it in an unofficial setting is suspect,<u+201d> she says. but there is one american she would like to see visit the island: barack obama. <u+201c>president obama says he hopes to visit cuba in 2016, and i<u+2019>m all for it <u+2013> if he insists on meeting and marching with the dissidents,<u+201d> she says. <u+201c>that<u+2019>s the kind of personal engagement that could be a transformative moment in this relationship.<u+201d>

one year after obama embraced cuba, what has changed?

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federal authorities in orlando and around the nation are scrambling to connect dots in the wake of sunday's massacre by an islamist terrorist, with potential charges looming for the gunman's wife as early as wednesday and agents tracing possible ties to radical muslims in the u.s. and abroad. the all-hands-on-deck probe is aimed at determining whether omar mateen acted alone when he gunned down 49 patrons in a gay nightclub or others knew of his deadly plans and possibly aided him. a federal law enforcement source told foxnews.com tuesday that prosecutors have convened a grand jury to investigate mateen's wife, noor salman, who could be charged as an accessory. fbi agents have interviewed omar mateen's wife, noor salman, in the days since sunday's massacre that also wounded 53 more. she is reportedly cooperating, but formal charges could help ensure she told the feds all she knows. multiple reports said the rodeo, calif., home where salman grew up was visited by the fbi tuesday. the fbi has refused comment to the press outside of official media briefings. a federal law enforcement source additionally told fox news that salman knew of her husband's deadly plans and did nothing to stop him. mateen died in a shootout with police early sunday morning.<u+00a0>while salman has been widely referred to as mateen's wife, the only proof of their marriage is her listing as his wife on a 2013 mortgage document and family members who said the two were married and had a 3-year-old son. on a separate front, the fbi is piecing together mateen<u+2019>s radical islam roots, and two trips to saudi arabia could be a sign of his growing religious devotion. his stated reason for both the 2011 and 2012 trips was umrah, a muslim pilgrimage to the kingdom that is not as significant as the hajj, a trip all muslims must make to mecca at least once in their lives. either or both of the trips could also have included a deadly diversion for terror training, according to experts who are dubious that a working-class muslim-american would make the pilgrimage twice in two years. the fbi took a computer, camera and other equipment from mateen's two-bedroom condominium in fort pierce, some 120 miles from the scene of the shooting and hours-long hostage situation that culminated in his death. although isis has taken credit for the attack and lavished praise on mateen, it is still unclear whether he received direction, or simply inspiration, from the terrorist group. however, fox news reported tuesday that mateen was more than just an acquaintance of another radicalized terrorist who left florida for syria where he blew himself up in 2014. fox news was told the relationship between mateen and american suicide bomber<u+00a0>moner abu-salha -- who drove 16 tons of explosives into a syrian government facility on behalf of al qaeda-linked nusra front, was "complex." the two frequented the same fort pierce mosque. authorities are also probing mateen's ties to dwayne robertson, a onetime new york gang leader who resurfaced in orlando as an imam and is suspected by federal authorities of radicalizing americans and sending them abroad to kill. robertson, who was released from prison last year, denies inciting violent jihad. finally, more information from relatives and people who knew mateen in prior years continued to bring into focus a portrait of an angry and volatile bigot with conflicted feelings toward gays. his massacre is being treated as both an act of terror and a hate crime directed at the lgbt community, yet hist first wife reportedly believes mateen himself was a closeted gay man. patrons at pulse, the nightclub where he killed dozens, say he had been seen there many times and one reportedly said mateen had contacted him using a dating app popular with the gay community.

orlando probe intensifies as feds eye gunman's wife, possible ties to international terror

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president obama used a press conference tuesday at the paris climate summit to once again claim progress in the u.s.-led coalition<u+2019>s campaign against the islamic state, while also setting low near-term expectations for gaining russian president vladimir putin's full cooperation in the fight. the president, speaking before he departs the climate summit to return to washington, said <u+201c>it is possible<u+201d> over the next several months that there will be "a shift in calculation in the russians and a recognition that it's time to bring the civil war in syria to a close." but he quickly tempered that prediction by acknowledging russia is hitting syrian opposition targets, some of whom are supported by the u.s. <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t expect you<u+2019>re going to see a 180 turn on their strategy over the next several weeks,<u+201d> obama said. the president said the u.s. shouldn<u+2019>t be under any <u+201c>illusions<u+201d> that russia will start <u+201c>hitting only isil targets.<u+201d> obama said that wasn<u+2019>t happening before, and, <u+201c>it<u+2019>s not going to be happening in the next several weeks.<u+201d> the comments demonstrate the potentially slow and plodding path ahead toward resolving the syrian civil war. while russia opposes the islamic state <u+2013> which claimed credit for bringing down a russian flight over egypt <u+2013> moscow also supports syrian leader bashar al-assad. obama, though, reiterated that the civil war cannot come to an end while assad remains in power obama suggested his hope is that diplomatic talks in vienna result in a gradual change, including <u+201c>pockets of cease-fires in and around syria.<u+201d> this, he said, could bring about a <u+201c>conversation about politics.<u+201d> still, he conceded the extremist threat that has wrought fear across the middle east and the west would not be eliminated in the short term. "isil is going to continue to be a deadly organization because of its social media, the resources it has and the networks of experienced fighters that it possesses," obama said, using one of several acronyms for the extremist group. "it's going to continue to be a serious threat for some time to come." concerns about isis have overshadowed obama's two-day trip to paris, where isis-linked attacks killed 130 people last month in the run-up to the climate negotiations. obama had sought to turn the outrage over the paris attacks and the group's shoot-down of a russian passenger jet in egypt into new resolve for stepping up the fight against isis. yet those hopes have been dampened by the spiraling diplomatic crisis between turkey and russia, sparked late last month when turkey shot down a russian warplane it said had violated its airspace along the border with syria. the u.s. sees both russia and turkey as critical to resolving the syria crisis. aiming to head off a rift between the two major mideast players, obama urged both to "de-escalate" their conflict and not get distracted from the campaign against isis. yet in a meeting with turkish president recep tayyip erdogan, obama also vouched for the nato ally's right to self-defense, and he pledged a solid u.s. commitment "to turkey's security and its sovereignty." sitting down with erdogan on the sidelines of climate talks, obama said the u.s. was very interested in accelerating its military relationship with turkey. he also praised turkey for generously accepting refugees fleeing violence in syria, and credited turkey with strengthening security along its border. turkey, too, hopes to avoid tensions with russia, erdogan told reporters as he and obama finished their roughly hour-long meeting. the associated press contributed to this report.

obama touts progress against isis, sets low expectations for russian cooperation

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killing obama administration rules, dismantling obamacare and pushing through tax reform are on the early to-do list.

5 takeaways from new hampshire

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(cnn) investigators think a woman who worked with richard matt and david sweat at the clinton correctional facility planned to pick the convicted killers up after they escaped but changed her mind at the last minute, a source familiar with the investigation tells cnn. joyce mitchell went to a hospital this weekend because of panic attacks, the source said. mitchell is one of several prison employees who has been questioned in the case. she has given a statement and is being "somewhat cooperative," a source said. she has not been charged. her cell phone was used to call several people connected to matt, another source with knowledge of the investigation told cnn. it's unclear who made the calls or when the calls were made. authorities are trying to determine whether mitchell was aware her phone was being used. her son, tobey mitchell, has come to her defense. he told nbc that she wouldn't "risk her life or other people's lives to help these guys escape." he said his mother was in a hospital with severe chest pains about the time of the escape. authorities scoured farms and fields around an upstate new york town tuesday, looking for the pair who escaped from a prison days earlier, a local official said. the search was prompted by someone who spotted two "suspicious men" walking down a road in willsboro in the middle of a "driving rainstorm" overnight "in an area that's all ... large farms and fields and wooded lots," town supervisor shaun gillilland said. as the citizen's car approached them, they took off. "they were walking down the road, not dressed for the elements," gillilland said. "they ran into the fields, from what i understand. so this behavior ... was suspicious." given the meticulous detail involved in the escape, there were concerns fugitives richard matt and david sweat put a similar level of planning into their getaway, including transportation. local, state and federal authorities set up a search perimeter there. as of 2 p.m., gillilland wasn't aware that any clothes, vehicles or other evidence had been found, but it was still relatively early in the process. the stormy overnight spotting in willsboro, a town of 2,000 people on lake champlain, is one of the first big potential breakthroughs since prison guards found matt and sweat's beds empty at 5:30 a.m. saturday. until then, the closest might have been an account from two dannemora residents about two men, whom they now believe to be the escaped killers, walking through their backyard shortly after midnight friday. "i go look at him (and) i say, 'what the hell are you doing in my yard? get the hell out of here,' " one of the residents told abc's "good morning america" of that encounter. the two men complied, one apologizing that he'd been on the wrong street. it wasn't until the next day that the resident, who asked not to be named, and his female friend realized who the trespassers probably were. they are killers whom authorities fear could do so again to evade capture. elizabeth ahern, who lives in plattsburgh, about five miles from the prison and 25 miles south of the canadian border, isn't taking any chances. the north country, she says, is a place where people usually don't bother securing their doors and have weapons to hunt, not to guard themselves against criminals. "it's a scary situation," ahern told cnn's "new day." "we are now closing our doors and locking them, and making sure we have knives and guns ready to go, just in case." expert: 'they had to have help' finding the two fugitives is job no. 1 for authorities. job no. 2 is figuring out how they got out -- and who, if anyone, helped them become the first inmates to escape clinton correctional in its 170-year history. matthew horace, a law enforcement veteran who spent years with the federal bureau of alcohol, tobacco, firearms and explosives, said: "they had to have help. ... i wouldn't be surprised if, when this all pans out, there's more than one, two, three or five people that helped them on the inside." matt and sweat cut through a cell wall that included steel a quarter-inch thick, maneuvered across a catwalk, shimmied down six stories to a tunnel of pipes, followed that tunnel, broke through a double-brick wall, cut into a 24-inch steam pipe, shimmied their way through the steam pipe, cut another hole so they could get out of the pipe and finally surfaced through a manhole. if other people are proved to have played a role in matt and sweat's escape or their life on the lam, they'll pay a price. an accomplice could be convicted of a misdemeanor for helping introduce nondangerous contraband into a prison. or they could get up to seven years in jail for the class d felony of "hindering prosecution" by providing "criminal assistance" to someone sentenced to 20 years to life for a violent crime. slain deputy's brother: 'i just hope he doesn't come back' matt and sweat are convicted killers whose behavior is prison appears to have been good. matt was convicted on three counts of murder, three counts of kidnapping and two counts of robbery after he kidnapped a man and beat him to death in december 1997, state police said. he was sentenced to 25 years to life in prison. in 1986, he escaped from an erie county jail. upon his capture, matt was sent to a maximum security prison in elmira, new york, on charges of escape and forgery. he was released from the elmira correctional facility in may 1990. sweat was serving a life sentence without parole for killing sheriff's deputy kevin tarsia in 2002. it has been years since these murders. while at clinton correctional, they were in the prison's "honor block" for those who have gone years without significant disciplinary action, according to a state official briefed on the investigation. being in an honor block carries privileges such as having hot plates and refrigerators in their cells and congregating for hours in a central gallery area each evening with fellow inmates, said rich plumadore, who worked at clinton correctional for 35 years. about 250 to 300 inmates are in this unit at the prison.

escaped killers' ride backed out, source says

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brace yourself: the presidential election is going to be all about anger hillary clinton laid out some lofty goals for her presidency in a speech on friday. "my mission from my first day as president to the last will be to raise the incomes of hardworking americans so they can once again afford a middle-class life," she said. "this is the defining economic challenge not only of this election but our time." so, she has her work cut out for her. but interestingly, that line came not from a populist barn burner of a speech, but from a policy-focused address about ending "quarterly capitalism" <u+2014> the tendency for businesses to focus on short-term shareholder gains over long-term investment. the wonkier bits of her speech about capital-gains taxation might only interest a specific subset of people, but she couched them to attract a much broader audience of voters angered by what they see as an unfair economic system. democrats and republicans alike are trying to channel that anger, but are offering very different solutions <u+2014> so much so that the leading candidates for both parties seem to be living in two economic realities. voters are frustrated by a range of economic issues: inequality, stagnant incomes and debt, to name a few. that frustration is the driving narrative of the 2016 election, as candidates try to convince voters that they can forge an economy that won't make americans feel stuck in neutral. americans have barely seen their pay outpace inflation since the recession. annual wage growth has been stuck at around 2 percent since 2009, and median household incomes are where they were in 1995. but that's not all that's wrong: faith in the american dream has dipped. in the late 1990s, 74 percent of americans thought hard work was the way to get ahead in america. by january 2014, it was 60 percent. and since the recession, most americans just haven't felt <u+2014> for more than a handful of weeks at a time, anyway <u+2014> that the economy is getting better. politicians, of course, have taken notice. indeed, to win any national election, they simply have to. "the longer we're kind of stuck in this rut of stagnating incomes and very low wage growth and a lot of slack in the labor market, the more people feel like this is just the way things are, and the less space there is for politicians to say, 'ok, well, we just need to wait for the recovery to take hold,' " said michael strain, a resident scholar in economics at the right-leaning american enterprise institute. "we've been waiting for the recovery to take hold for a while. both parties are responding to that." jeb bush earlier this year, in a speech about the middle class, acknowledged not only that americans are frustrated, but that elbow grease can't fix everything. "far too many americans live on the edge of economic ruin," the former florida governor said, "and many more feel like they're stuck in place: working longer, and harder, even as they're losing ground." he later added, "something is holding them back <u+2014> not a lack of ambition, not a lack of hope, not because they're lazy or see themselves as victims. something else. something is an artificial weight on their shoulders." that's the idea at the center of the election, and everyone in the race seems to have latched on. now, politicians are peering at it through their respective philosophical lenses to decide how to fix it. "republican rhetoric is much more growth-centric: 'the solution to this is economic growth,' " said steven schier, professor of political science at carleton college. "that's a very common republican theme, whereas democrats are more regulatory and redistributive. in other words, they're reverting to type." bernie sanders has advocated higher taxes on the rich, decrying what he calls "casino capitalism" in a may interview. "the people on top have lost any sense of responsibility for the rest of the society," said sanders, an independent from vermont, who has gained traction as the principal alternative to clinton in the democratic primary. marco rubio, the republican senator from florida, has a tax plan that will, among other things, dole out a heftier child tax credit to some families. clinton believes that targeting "quarterly capitalism" and focusing on the american worker, via paid leave and helping keep mothers in the workforce, could be answers. bush comes at it from the other, macroeconomic direction, saying if americans can work more hours and if government stays out of the way of the "gig economy," he can bring about 4 percent growth. that speeding train (or, perhaps, uber car) of growth will bring everyone along with it, he contends. it's not just about presenting policies, of course. presidential campaigns are about choices. and in the fight to make the choice clearer for frustrated americans, the most pointed blows yet have been between clinton and bush. "now comes hillary clinton, and her economic agenda could be summarized easily: whatever obama is doing, let's double down on it," he said in a speech earlier this month. the implicit message: if you hate the economy now, clinton won't change it. for her part, clinton and her affiliated groups have latched onto several bush statements that could make him sound unsympathetic to workers <u+2014> in particular, earlier this month, when he said that people would have to work longer hours in his economy. (his campaign later clarified that he was talking about part-time workers who want more hours.) "well, he must not have met very many american workers," clinton said in response. "let him tell that to the nurse who stands on her feet all day or the teacher who is in that classroom, or the trucker who drives all night. let him tell that to the fast-food workers marching in the streets for better pay. they don't need a lecture. they need a raise." while they're appealing to an exhausting stretch of stagnant wages for american workers, they're really tapping into a decades-old idea of how the economy should work. "we're still trying to figure out how wealth gets distributed in an economy where you've seen manufacturing and union jobs and what used to be the typical middle-class blue-collar jobs evaporate," said leonard steinhorn, a professor of public communication and history at american university. he continued, "the bottom line is that [politicians are] dealing with a set of expectations americans have about the economy, and a sense of acknowledging that frustration that a great many people don't feel that they're participating in the mythical rising tide that existed briefly after world war ii." (see chart.) despite newfangled campaign trail rhetoric about things like the emerging sharing economy and, yes, uber, very old roles are at work here: democrats championing the downtrodden laborer; republicans bemoaning regulation. still, what's new in the 2016 election is really that americans' anxiety about the economy is getting more entrenched by the day.

brace yourself: the presidential election is going to be all about anger

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running mates? it<u+2019>s not even may, and already we<u+2019>re talking running mates? then let me toss elizabeth warren<u+2019>s name into the mix. i<u+2019>m making several assumptions here <u+2014> in a year when assuming anything is dangerous. first, i believe ted cruz<u+2019>s desperate gamble of adding carly fiorina to his <u+201c>ticket<u+201d> will fail. he was right to throw some kind of hail mary, but i don<u+2019>t see how fiorina attracts enough new support for cruz to win the indiana primary on tuesday. and if he loses there, he<u+2019>s pretty much toast. donald trump<u+2019>s landslide wins this week in the northeast gave him a bigger haul of convention delegates than even his most optimistic boosters had expected. if momentum still counts for anything in politics, trump has it. and if he wins indiana <u+2014> polls show him with about a six-point lead <u+2014> his path to the republican nomination looks wide enough to taxi the rest of the way in his boeing<u+00a0>757. i<u+2019>m also assuming that hillary clinton will be the democratic nominee. the delegate math is just brutal: there is simply no viable way now for bernie sanders to catch up. sanders appeared to acknowledge reality this week when he announced that his campaign would lay off <u+201c>hundreds<u+201d> of paid staff members. he will use his clout at the convention, he said, to <u+201c>put together the strongest progressive agenda that any political party has ever seen.<u+201d> which is where warren comes in. it is absurd to claim that clinton does not merit the <u+201c>progressive<u+201d> label; she has the scars from decades of attacks by the <u+201c>vast right-wing conspiracy<u+201d> to prove her bona fides. but on most issues <u+2014> gun control being a glaring exception <u+2014> sanders is well to her left. and, as his surprising campaign has shown, that<u+2019>s where the energy and excitement in the democratic party happen to be this year. if there is a specific issue on which clinton is weak with the democratic left, it is not the fbi investigation of her emails. it is her perceived coziness with wall street, highlighted by the six-figure speaking fees she was paid by investment bank goldman sachs. sanders<u+2019>s central theme is that the rich and powerful have distorted our political and economic systems to favor their own selfish interests. he blasts clinton not only for the goldman speeches but also for mining wall street for campaign cash. my assumption is that sanders, should he fall short of the nomination, will give clinton his full-throated support. but will his most ardent supporters follow? as clinton<u+2019>s running mate, warren could erase this potential weakness with the democratic base. she has spent her senate career becoming known as the scourge of wall street. no political figure is more closely identified with efforts to curb the excesses of the financial system. warren would also help address another potential vulnerability. if the general-election matchup is trump vs. clinton <u+2014> and that seems increasingly likely <u+2014> it is becoming clear that on the question of u.s. military involvement around the world, trump will position himself to the left of clinton. the foreign policy speech that trump delivered wednesday was, for the most part, vague and anodyne. his overarching theme is <u+201c>america first,<u+201d> he said. to the extent the phrase means anything, it seems to promise that a president trump would be extremely reluctant to deploy u.s. combat forces in any sort of <u+201c>world<u+2019>s policeman<u+201d> role. trump has even questioned the viability of nato in its present form. clinton is a foreign policy traditionalist. as secretary of state, she was more hawkish than president obama <u+2014> she pushed for more vigorous intervention in syria, for example. she has long since apologized for her vote to authorize the iraq war, but sanders continues to attack her for it. trump would surely do the same. warren wasn<u+2019>t in congress when the iraq war began, and national security isn<u+2019>t the issue with which she is identified. but her views fit squarely with those of the party<u+2019>s progressive wing. warren also has a compelling personal story of having risen from modest beginnings to become a harvard professor and then a u.s. senator. the fact that she and clinton would be the first all-female major party ticket should be irrelevant, but isn<u+2019>t. to many voters, it would be thrilling. i can think of several other potential running mates for clinton. funny, but i draw a blank when trying to come up with a suitable partner for trump. maybe he<u+2019>ll just go it alone. read more from eugene robinson<u+2019>s archive, follow him on twitter or subscribe to his updates on facebook. you can also join him tuesdays at 1 p.m. for a live q&a.

the case for a clinton-warren ticket

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divisions among democrats are deepening over sen. bernie sanders<u+2019>s response to a chaotic state convention in nevada, sparking fresh questions about how, exactly, the party might put itself back together again. some top democratic leaders have denounced mr. sanders<u+2019>s reluctance to rein in his supporters after they disrupted the party<u+2019>s nevada convention. the vermont senator [<u+2026>]

democratic party leaders, bernie sanders spar over nevada convention chaos

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it's hard not to like joe biden. i've seen him speak in person several times, and his love for people and politics is downright infectious. i'm sad he announced wednesday he is not running for president, because he's fun and he would have lit up the campaign. but i think he made the right decision. the path to winning the democratic nomination certainly wasn't clear, let alone easy, and it's better for biden to end his career at the high point of the vice presidency rather than try for the presidency once again and fail. and while biden seems genuinely to relish campaigning, campaigns are getting less and less fun by the day. the truth is that a biden candidacy would have been enjoyable for voters (and the media). but it probably wouldn't have been very enjoyable for biden. more substantively, a biden candidacy might simply have muddied the otherwise helpfully clear waters between hillary clinton and bernie sanders. take the first democratic debate, where clinton tried to argue that her plan for how to deal with the ills and excesses of wall street was "more comprehensive" and "tougher" than sanders'. sanders' response? "well, that's not true." on this issue, sanders is right. he is a lifelong economic populist, to the point where he's not afraid to criticize the structural failings of capitalism and change the underlying rules of the game to make sure the economy helps poor people and working families. clinton, on the other hand, has certainly embraced some of the rhetoric of populism in her latest campaign. but the extent to which it courses through her bones -- let alone her policies -- is questionable. in the middle of this debate would have been biden. the vice president has more populist street cred from the get-go, especially rhetorically. i don't think i've ever heard biden speak without mentioning his hometown of scranton, pennsylvania. more importantly, despite a lofty career since then, he's always managed to maintain a straight shooter, "regular joe" style. but on policies, he's more closely aligned with clinton than sanders. biden voted in favor of the gramm-leach-bliley act , which repealed part of the glass-steagall act, opening the door to banks to engage in the wild risk-taking that crashed the economy. biden sided with big banks in making it harder for americans to reduce their amount of student debt. and biden supports the trans-pacific partnership trade deal (as clinton did for a while before recently changing her view ). with a little more than a year until the presidential election, it's essential for democratic voters -- and americans in general -- to see a debate in the primaries in which conventional centrist economic policy is exposed and evaluated in light of a viable, populist alternative. clinton and sanders are having that very real and important debate. "regular joe," who repeatedly promotes centrist policies that most help the country's elite, would have unhelpfully complicated things. "i can die a happy man never having been president of the united states of america," biden once told a reporter. "but it doesn't mean i won't run." now, apparently he won't run. and while we should be grateful for his public service up until now, his decision is also a public service -- because the democratic primary will run better without him.

joe biden: he's right not to run (opinion)

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the times said it picked clinton over her top rival, vermont sen. bernie sanders, due to her experience and policy ideas. it also cast doubt on sanders' ability to enact several of his key policies, including breaking up large banks and creating a medicare-for-all health care plan. "hillary clinton is the right choice for the democrats to present a vision for america that is radically different from the one that leading republican candidates offer -- a vision in which middle-class americans have a real shot at prosperity, women's rights are enhanced, undocumented immigrants are given a chance at legitimacy, international alliances are nurtured and the country is kept safe," the times said. the editorial board, however, expressed reservations about a no-fly zone in syria, which clinton has supported. the clinton campaign's relationship with the times has been troubled at times over the past year following the revelations that she maintained a private email server while leading the state department. in july, the campaign accused the paper of "egregious" errors and the "apparent abandonment of standard journalistic practices" after initially claiming that federal inspectors general had requested a criminal investigation into clinton's email use during her tenure at the state department. clinton herself was not the target, and the case was not criminal. a letter from the campaign asserted that the times rushed the flawed story onto its website and front page despite "questionable sourcing," and didn't do enough to contact clinton before publication. kasich, the governor of ohio, deserves the republican nod because he is "the only plausible choice for republicans tired of the extremism and inexperience on display in this race," the times said. but, the paper contended, kasich "is no moderate," citing his battles with public-sector unions, support for limiting abortion rights and opposition to same-sex marriage. "still, as a veteran of partisan fights and bipartisan deals during nearly two decades in the house, he has been capable of compromise and believes in the ability of government to improve lives," the times wrote. kasich quickly tweeted his appreciation for the endorsement. "proud to have the support of the @nytimes - together we can make america safer & stronger -john #kasich4us," he said. proud to have the support of the @nytimes - together we can make america safer & stronger -john #kasich4us pic.twitter.com/vfvraost72 <u+2014> john kasich (@johnkasich) january 30, 2016 but in backing kasich, the times took swipes at the two candidates leading the republican field, donald trump and texas sen. ted cruz, saying they are "equally objectionable for different reasons." the paper accused trump of disingenuously making promises to his supporters to win their backing, while it charged cruz with alienating his senate colleagues and criticized his positions on syria and taxes.

new york times endorses hillary clinton, john kasich for nominations

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