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welfare from the pollutants, or the changes to the climate that
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will occur as a result of the use of fossil fuels and the loss of
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forest. The greenhouse effect - to take just one danger to our
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environment - threatens to bring about a rise in sea level that
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will inundate low-lying coastal areas. This includes the fertile
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and densely populated Nile delta in Egypt. and the Bengal delta
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region, which covers 80 per cent of Bangladesh and is already
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subject to violent seasonal storms that cause disastrous floods.
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The homes and livelihood of 46 million people are at risk in
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these two deltas alone. A rise in sea level could also wipe out
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entire island nations such as the Maldives, none of which is
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more than a metre or two above sea level. So it is obvious that
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even within a human-centred moral framework, the preservation
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of our environment is a value of the greatest possible
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importance.
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From the standpoint of a form of civilisation based on growing
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crops and grazing animals, wilderness may seem to be a wasteland,
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a useless area that needs clearing in order to render it
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productive and valuable. There was a time when villages sur-
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The Environment
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rounded by farmland seemed like oases of cultivation amongst
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the deserts of forest or rough mountain slopes. Now, however,
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a different metaphor is more appropriate: the remnants of true
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wilderness left to us are like islands amidst a sea of human
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activity that threatens to engulf them. This gives wilderness a
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scarcity value that provides the basis for a strong argument for
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preservation, even within the terms of a human-centred ethic.
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That argument becomes much stronger still when we take a
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long-term view. To this immensely important aspect of environmental
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values we shall now tum.
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FUTURE GENERATIONS
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A virgin forest is the product of all the millions of years that
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have passed since the beginning of our planet. If it is cut down,
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another forest may grow up, but the continuity has been broken.
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The disruption in the natural life cycles of the plants and animals
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means that the forest will never again be as it would have been,
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had it not been cut. The gains made from cutting the forest -
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employment. profits for business, export earnings, and cheaper
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cardboard and paper for packaging - are short-term benefits.
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Even if the forest is not cut. but drowned to build a dam to
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create electricity, it is likely that the benefits will last for only a
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generation or two: after that new technology will render such
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methods of generating power obsolete. Once the forest is cut or
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drowned, however, the link with the past has gone for ever.
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That is a cost that will be borne by every generation that succeeds
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us on this planet. It is for that reason that environmentalists are
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right to speak of wilderness as a 'world heritage'. It is something
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that we have inherited from our ancestors, and that we must
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preserve for our descendants, if they are to have it at all.
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In contrast to many more stable, tradition-oriented human
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societies, our modem political and cultural ethos has great difficulty
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in recognising long-term values. Politicians are notorious
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for not looking beyond the next election; but even if they do,
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Pradical Ethics
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they will find their economic advisers telling them that anything
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to be gained in the future should be discounted to such a degree
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as to make it easy to disregard the long-term future altogether.
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Economists have been taught to apply a discount rate to all
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future goods. In other words, a million dollars in twenty years
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is not worth a million dollars today, even when we allow for
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inflation. Economists will discount the value of the million dollars
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by a certain percentage, usually corresponding to the real
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long-term interest rates. This makes economic sense, because if
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I had a thousand dollars today I could invest it so that it would
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be worth more, in real terms, in twenty years. But the use of a
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discount rate means that values gained one hundred years hence
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rank very low, in comparison with values gained today; and
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values gained one thousand years in the future scarcely count
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at all. This is not because of any uncertainty about whether
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there will be human beings or other sentient creatures inhabiting
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this planet at that time, but merely because of the cumulative
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effect of the rate of return on money invested now. From the
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standpoint of the priceless and timeless values of wilderness,
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however, applying a discount rate gives us the wrong answer.
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There are some things that, once lost, no amount of money can
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regain. Thus to justify the destruction of an ancient forest on
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the grounds that it will earn us substantial export income is
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unsound, even if we could invest that income and increase its
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value from year to year; for no matter how much we increased
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its value, it could never buy back the link with the past represented
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by the forest.
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This argument does not show that there can be no justification
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for cutting any virgin forests, but it does mean that any such
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justification must take full account of the value of the forests to
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the generations to come in the more remote future, as well as
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in the more immediate future. This value will obviously be
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related to the particular scenic or biological significance of the
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forest; but as the proportion of true wilderness on the earth
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dwindles, every part of it becomes significant) because the op-
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The Environment
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portunities for experiencing wilderness become scarce, and the
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likelihood of a reasonable selection of the major forms of wilderness
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being preserved is reduced.
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Can we be sure that future generations will appreciate wilderness?
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Perhaps they will be happier sitting in air-conditioned
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shopping malls, playing computer games more sophisticated
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than any we can imagine? That is possible. But there are
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