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1,900 | <s>[INST] In May 1995, the reforms [/INST] won a 2nd term for President Carlos Menem. </s> |
1,901 | <s>[INST] What Argentines and world moneymen now need to be sure [/INST] of is that his fall will not cost them the gains that the 2 men have made. </s> |
1,902 | <s>[INST] This week's signs were good, [/INST] but there are longer term battles to be won. </s> |
1,903 | <s>[INST] Full text: An economics minister goes, the problems don't [/INST] FIVE years as Argentina's economy minister deservedly made Domingo Cavallo an emblem of Latin American reform. </s> |
1,904 | <s>[INST] Facing hyperinflation, he did [/INST] not just tame it but killed it. </s> |
1,905 | <s>[INST] Insisting on deregulation and privatisation, he laid the groundwork [/INST] of a competitive economy; between 1991 and 1994 growth ran at more than 7% a year. </s> |
1,906 | <s>[INST] Through obstinate force of personality, [/INST] he beat down the claims of special interests. </s> |
1,907 | <s>[INST] In May 1995 it won [/INST] a second term for President Carlos Menem. </s> |
1,908 | <s>[INST] But in the end [/INST] it cost Mr Cavallo his own job. </s> |
1,909 | <s>[INST] What Argentines and world moneymen now need to be sure of [/INST] is that his fall will not cost them the gains that the two men-together, if not always in harmony-have made. </s> |
1,910 | <s>[INST] This week's signs were good: the peso [/INST] stood fast, initial tumbles in bonds and shares were soon reversed. </s> |
1,911 | <s>[INST] His medicine was working well, even if [/INST] the patient, once halfway cured, had begun to notice its nasty side-effects. </s> |
1,912 | <s>[INST] The currency reform he had prescribed in 1991 [/INST] made monetary growth dependent, in large part, on a steady inflow of dollars. </s> |
1,913 | <s>[INST] Both were running nicely until [/INST] the Mexican crisis began 19 months ago. </s> |
1,914 | <s>[INST] Mr Cavallo could have abandoned [/INST] his regime and let the new peso slide. </s> |
1,915 | <s>[INST] He held firm, letting money supply [/INST] slide instead-by 15% in five months-and interest rates double. </s> |
1,916 | <s>[INST] Inevitably, that meant recession [/INST] and a leap in unemployment (beyond 18%). </s> |
1,917 | <s>[INST] But the political cost has [/INST] mounted, even while the economy has picked up again. </s> |
1,918 | <s>[INST] Mr Cavallo's recent attempt to [/INST] cut welfare spending was the last straw. </s> |
1,919 | <s>[INST] With even should-be allies up in arms, and the [/INST] trade unions calling a general strike, Mr Menem decided that his star minister had become a liability. </s> |
1,920 | <s>[INST] Into his shoes stepped Roque Fernandez, [/INST] president of the central bank since 199i (see page 37). </s> |
1,921 | <s>[INST] As markets have shown, Mr [/INST] Menem could hardly have chosen a more reassuring figure. </s> |
1,922 | <s>[INST] True, Mr Fernandez is another pillar of orthodoxy and [/INST] even if he weren't, stability has been as much Mr Menem's work as Mr Cavallo's. </s> |
1,923 | <s>[INST] Yet it is hard to think that Mr [/INST] Menem sacked one minister just to face all the same political trouble with another. </s> |
1,924 | <s>[INST] Don't panic, do watch with care [/INST] Even if the fixed exchange rate remains, there are other worries. </s> |
1,925 | <s>[INST] One, directly linked to that, is the [/INST] fiscal deficit; small, but niggling, given Argentina's promises to the IMF. </s> |
1,926 | <s>[INST] But revenues remain weak: down from $50 billion in [/INST] 1993 to $49 billion in 1995, while current spending rose from $44 billion to $48.5 billion. </s> |
1,927 | <s>[INST] Mr Cavallo tried to reduce it-and [/INST] failed: whatever the true figure, it rose as recession bit. </s> |
1,928 | <s>[INST] Mr Fernandez does not have his predecessor's political clout; he will need [/INST] Mr Menem's help (in which a bit of presidential austerity and the jailing of the odd well-placed evader would be a good start). </s> |
1,929 | <s>[INST] But, even after some privatisations, state-owned banks-words of ill-omen in Latin [/INST] America-still hold two-fifths of all deposits; and over 30% of their total loan book, at latest count, was nonperforming. </s> |
1,930 | <s>[INST] With the private-sector figure of 11%, the overall average [/INST] is about 20%-though in banking troubles it is the worst case, not the average, that counts. </s> |
1,931 | <s>[INST] This is not a structure [/INST] that can afford a fresh loss of confidence. </s> |
1,932 | <s>[INST] Confidence indeed is the key, and setting out [/INST] to win it must be itself an act of policy, notjust a consequence. </s> |
1,933 | <s>[INST] Brusque at home, Mr Cavallo [/INST] was a brilliant salesman to the world. </s> |
1,934 | <s>[INST] Rightly or wrongly, it is the world that [/INST] counts; and here too it wants to be reassured, promptly, that there will be continuity. </s> |
1,935 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 211 of 400 Dropping the [/INST] pilot Author: Anonymous Publication info: The Economist 340.7977 (Aug 3, 1996): 37. </s> |
1,936 | <s>[INST] One day Domingo Cavallo was the minister in charge of [/INST] Argentina's economy; the next day President Carlos Menem had said thank-you and goodbye and he was not. </s> |
1,937 | <s>[INST] Rumors that Cavallo, hero of the past five years' [/INST] economic turnaround was about to jump - or be pushed - have been around for many months. </s> |
1,938 | <s>[INST] Menem named the central bank's [/INST] president, Roque Fernandez, to take the reins. </s> |
1,939 | <s>[INST] There was no stockmarket crisis, [/INST] no run on the banks, no dramatic devaluation. </s> |
1,940 | <s>[INST] Indeed, there was very little [/INST] indication that the Argentine public even noticed. </s> |
1,941 | <s>[INST] One day Domingo Cavallo was the minister in charge [/INST] of the nation's economy; the next President Carlos Menem had said thank-you and goodbye and he wasn't. </s> |
1,942 | <s>[INST] Rumours that Mr Cavallo, hero of the past [/INST] five years' economic turnaround, was about to jump-or be pushed-have been around for many months. </s> |
1,943 | <s>[INST] And with reason: the blunt-spoken economics minister has clashed [/INST] with the president, other ministers and leading members of the ruling Justicialist (supposedly Peronist) party. </s> |
1,944 | <s>[INST] Mr Menem is a politician, and his political background lies, however [/INST] distantly, in Peronism: a tradition of populism, protectionism, open state purse-strings and state nannying, especially in creating industry and providing jobs. </s> |
1,945 | <s>[INST] Mr Cavallo is an economist, and his [/INST] practice was almost the opposite: economic and fiscal rigour, opening of markets, privatisation. </s> |
1,946 | <s>[INST] This was the formula that defeated hyperinflation at the start [/INST] of the 199os, and then brought three years of spectacular growth (in output only, though, not employment). </s> |
1,947 | <s>[INST] Yet, with memories of inflation fading, many were comfortable [/INST] enough within the old tradition; not least those in the trade unions, historically linked to Juan Peron. </s> |
1,948 | <s>[INST] And last year's sharp recession [/INST] showed just how harsh the new reality could be. </s> |
1,949 | <s>[INST] Economic indicators suggest that the recession has been and gone: [/INST] money supply is rising, interest rates are back almost to where they were in late 1994, growth has resumed. </s> |
1,950 | <s>[INST] But unemployment remains obstinately [/INST] high, and voters were showing their discomfort. </s> |
1,951 | <s>[INST] After one argument too [/INST] many, Mr Menem demanded Mr Cavallo's resignation. </s> |
1,952 | <s>[INST] A relaxed Mr Cavallo said he had known for some [/INST] time that the president had wanted a change, and had first discussed it with him several months ago. </s> |
1,953 | <s>[INST] He admitted that feelings in Congress and [/INST] the ruling party had lessened his effectiveness: "I was a spent force. </s> |
1,954 | <s>[INST] Mr Menem, in turn, was swift to honour Mr [/INST] Cavallo as "the best economy minister that Argentina has had in almost its entire history". </s> |
1,955 | <s>[INST] Financial markets blipped, but soon recovered, after [/INST] Mr Menem named the central bank's president, Roque Fernandez, to take the reins. </s> |
1,956 | <s>[INST] He is a respected economic technocrat, trained in economics at the University [/INST] of Chicago, who won praise for his management of Argentina's banking troubles last year during the shocks set off by the Mexican crisis. </s> |
1,957 | <s>[INST] He has promised to be tough: no devaluation, no meddling [/INST] with market forces, no retreat from Mr Cavallo's latest unpopular measure-cuts in family benefits-and some tax-breaks for employees. </s> |
1,958 | <s>[INST] Though Mr Menem unhelpfully admitted that Mr Fernandez was [/INST] not his first choice, business leaders, bankers and the media were quick to endorse it. </s> |
1,959 | <s>[INST] The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Michel Camdessus, chimed in, saying [/INST] he believed economic policy would continue, "not just because I trust in the men who manage it, but because the process is irreversible". </s> |
1,960 | <s>[INST] He could have added a third reason: an early task for Mr Fernandez [/INST] will be to win IMF approval for a wider fiscal deficit than the $2.5 billion-a bit under to% of GDP-that was agreed earlier this year. </s> |
1,961 | <s>[INST] Some Peronist legislators have shown readiness to offer [/INST] Mr Fernandez help that they would not give to Mr Cavallo, but not all. </s> |
1,962 | <s>[INST] The trade unions, already planning a general strike for [/INST] August 8th, in answer to Mr Cavallo's attack on social spending, said it would go ahead. </s> |
1,963 | <s>[INST] The 70% support for the change of minister found [/INST] by one opinion poll was not just an expression of preference for one man over the other". </s> |
1,964 | <s>[INST] If this is just a formal change, it [/INST] is not enough," said Carlos Alvarez, a leader of the centre-left Frepaso coalition. </s> |
1,965 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 214 of 400 Privacy please [/INST] Author: Anonymous Publication info: The Economist 340.7976 (Jul 27, 1996): 54. </s> |
1,966 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: Numerous Latin American [/INST] countries are privatizing huge chunks of their infrastructure. </s> |
1,967 | <s>[INST] As Asia has already found, Latin America has concluded that [/INST] the public sector cannot, on its own, provide all of the infrastructure that its fast-growing economies need. </s> |
1,968 | <s>[INST] Full text: Headnote Private firms [/INST] are now running much of Latin America's infrastructure. </s> |
1,969 | <s>[INST] But the job of governments is not yet finished IF YOU live in Buenos Aires, you can now buy your [/INST] electricity from Edenor, a firm that is owned mainly by Electricite de France and Spain's Repsol; your water from Aguas Argentinas, a group led by France's Lyonnaise des Eaux; and your telephone service from a subsidiary of Spain's Telefonica. </s> |
1,970 | <s>[INST] Travel to work, and you can take a suburban train operated by America's Burlington [/INST] Northern and its local partners, or drive along a newly upgraded $495m 12-lane toll-motorway, built and operated by Autopistas del Sol, a private Argentine-Spanish consortium. </s> |
1,971 | <s>[INST] Just six years ago all these [/INST] services were provided, badly or barely at all, by state companies. </s> |
1,972 | <s>[INST] Other Latin American countries are [/INST] also privatising huge chunks of their infrastructure. </s> |
1,973 | <s>[INST] Even in Brazil, the most laggardly, the federal [/INST] government is starting to privatise the electricity industry, as well as the ports and railways. </s> |
1,974 | <s>[INST] In June the government of Sao Paulo, Brazil's largest state, kicked off its own programme by [/INST] approving the potential sale of electricity assets worth up to $20 billion, and by awarding a $1.85 billion, 20-year concession to manage around 250 km (150 miles) of its busiest roads. </s> |
1,975 | <s>[INST] As Asia has already found, Latin America has concluded [/INST] that the public sector cannot, on its own, provide all the infrastructure its fast-growing economies need. </s> |
1,976 | <s>[INST] In Asia, the challenge is often to [/INST] build roads or power stations from scratch (see table on next page). </s> |
1,977 | <s>[INST] Latin America, by contrast, has [/INST] a century's worth of infrastructure investment to build on. </s> |
1,978 | <s>[INST] But its "assets" have crumbled under inefficient [/INST] monopolists (first from the private sector and then from the public). </s> |
1,979 | <s>[INST] Thanks to the debt crisis, investment in infrastructure in Latin America and the Caribbean [/INST] fell from 4.1% of GDP in the 1970s to 3% in the 198os-a time when East Asian countries were spending 47% of their GDP on infrastructure. </s> |
1,980 | <s>[INST] The investment gap shows up in different ways, depending where you are: power [/INST] cuts, clogged urban traffic, undrinkable water, long waiting lists for telephones, containers piled up in ports whose waters are perfumed by untreated sewage. </s> |
1,981 | <s>[INST] To catch up, the World Bank says Latin [/INST] America needs to invest some $60 billion-or 4.5% of GDP-each year (see right-hand chart). </s> |
1,982 | <s>[INST] Brazil alone should be investing [/INST] perhaps $25 billion a year on infrastructure. </s> |
1,983 | <s>[INST] Jose Luiz Alqueres, president of Escelsa, a privatised electricity distributor, points [/INST] out that Brazil's electricity assets alone are worth $120 billion-more than the market capitalisation of the Sao Paulo stock exchange. </s> |
1,984 | <s>[INST] On the whole, they have been happier [/INST] taking over (and sometimes expanding) existing infrastructure than building from scratch. </s> |
1,985 | <s>[INST] Klas Ringskog, an adviser to the World Bank, reckons that, in [/INST] telecoms, it requires only $3 of capital investment to generate a dollar of annual revenue (in water systems, it takes $12). </s> |
1,986 | <s>[INST] Last month's public offering for [/INST] part of Peru's telephone company was heavily oversubscribed. </s> |
1,987 | <s>[INST] In Brazil, new rules opening up the [/INST] mobile-phone market could bring in $7 billion of investment next year alone. </s> |
1,988 | <s>[INST] Demand for minority shares in Telebras, a Brazilian giant due to be [/INST] privatised next year, has helped drive the dollar value of the Sao Paulo stockmarket up by 36% so far this year. </s> |
1,989 | <s>[INST] (There is a waiting list of more than im for telephones [/INST] in the city of Sao Paulo, and a secondary market in which lines are traded at an average price of $4,000). </s> |
1,990 | <s>[INST] One troubled cellular-phone venture in Argentina, led by America's [/INST] GTE, may have signed up lots of customers, but too many have failed to pay their bills. </s> |
1,991 | <s>[INST] Nevertheless, the private sector will surely provide nearly all [/INST] of the $2oo billion thought to be necessary to double Latin America's current telephone coverage. </s> |
1,992 | <s>[INST] Chile, Argentina and Peru have [/INST] also successfully attracted private capital into electricity. </s> |
1,993 | <s>[INST] Now, frightened by the prospect of power cuts [/INST] within two to three years, Brazil too is starting to privatise power generation. </s> |
1,994 | <s>[INST] Raimundo Brito, the country's minister for energy and [/INST] mines, expects electricity consumption to increase by 5% a year over the next decade. </s> |
1,995 | <s>[INST] He is trying to lure investors [/INST] into finishing off dozens of abandoned hydro-power projects, and starting others. </s> |
1,996 | <s>[INST] But many observers question whether he can succeed in attracting [/INST] many without first creating a competitive market by privatising distribution, much of which is owned by state governments. </s> |
1,997 | <s>[INST] Lack of competition in Mexico's energy market has [/INST] slowed that country's plans to attract American independent power producers into electricity generation. </s> |
1,998 | <s>[INST] Mexico and Brazil are [/INST] now following Argentina in privatising their railways. </s> |
1,999 | <s>[INST] Investors are still haunted by the 5,000km of [/INST] private toll-roads built in Mexico between 1989 and 1994 under the government of Carlos Salinas. </s> |
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