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2,100 | <s>[INST] Trade is back to historic norms and Britain [/INST] is vying for top place as Europe's biggest investor in the Argentine economy. </s> |
2,101 | <s>[INST] But the issue of the Falklands, over which the two [/INST] fought a brief but bloody war in 1982, cannot be left aside - at least not indefinitely. </s> |
2,102 | <s>[INST] True, London and Buenos Aires have settled several Falklands-related issues under [/INST] the "umbrella", a diplomatic nicety unfurled in 1990 which allows discussion of specific issues without compromising either side's sovereignty claim. </s> |
2,103 | <s>[INST] The most dramatic success came last year when Argentina [/INST] dropped its objections to oil development around the islands in return for a share in any royalties. </s> |
2,104 | <s>[INST] Fourteen years after the war, Argentine passport-holders [/INST] are still forbidden from setting foot on the islands they call the Malvinas. </s> |
2,105 | <s>[INST] Quarrels remain over fishing rights around [/INST] the Falklands and South Georgia, whose sovereignty is also disputed. </s> |
2,106 | <s>[INST] And Britain maintains - at least formally - an [/INST] arms embargo against Argentina, notwithstanding media reports last month suggesting these may have been secretly relaxed. </s> |
2,107 | <s>[INST] "We have to remove the thorn that is pricking our relationship," says Mr [/INST] Ricardo Lafferriere, a Radical congressman who last month attended the Argentine-British Conference (ABC) in Salta, northern Argentina, aimed at promoting better mutual understanding. </s> |
2,108 | <s>[INST] Far from dropping its claim to the islands, [/INST] Argentina has actually reinforced it with a specific mention in the reformed constitution of 1994. </s> |
2,109 | <s>[INST] Buenos Aires insists it will pursue its goal by diplomatic means only, [/INST] but President Carlos Menem's insistence that sovereignty will be won by the year 2000 hangs over islanders like the sword of Damocles. </s> |
2,110 | <s>[INST] The mainstream Falklanders' position - that [/INST] they want nothing to do with Argentina - is equally entrenched. </s> |
2,111 | <s>[INST] Economic wealth from fishing, which has increased per capita [/INST] income seven-fold since the war, has bolstered the tiny population's sense of its own negotiating power. </s> |
2,112 | <s>[INST] For both Britain and the Falklands, the [/INST] sovereignty issue is trilateral, with the islands' elected council having ultimate say. </s> |
2,113 | <s>[INST] Buenos Aires rejects the concept of self-determination for what it regards [/INST] as stolen territory, regarding resolution of the dispute as a purely bilateral affair to be hammered out with London. </s> |
2,114 | <s>[INST] "Anglo-Argentine relations are, to some extent, being held hostage to [/INST] the wishes of 2,000 islanders," says Mr Victor Bulmer-Thomas, director of the Institute of Latin American Studies . </s> |
2,115 | <s>[INST] "At some point, there is bound [/INST] to be some kind of reaction in Buenos Aires". </s> |
2,116 | <s>[INST] Argentina, which as part of its "charm offensive" on [/INST] island sentiment has yielded on several issues, may be running out of patience, Mr Bulmer-Thomas says. </s> |
2,117 | <s>[INST] Buenos Aires has made several gestures, such as allowing flights [/INST] between Chile and the islands to pass over Argentine territory, but has so far seen little in return. </s> |
2,118 | <s>[INST] Argentine frustration has become evident in its refusal to [/INST] sign a long-term fishing agreement to protect fish stocks that straddle Falkland and mainland waters. </s> |
2,119 | <s>[INST] Catches of ilex squid, on which the Falklands' economy is heavily dependent, have fallen [/INST] dramatically in recent years and Argentina may be tempted to use the threat of continued over-fishing as a last-ditch - and potentially devastating - bargaining chip. </s> |
2,120 | <s>[INST] To prevent such action, Mr [/INST] Bulmer-Thomas believes Falklanders need to make some appeasing gestures. </s> |
2,121 | <s>[INST] These might include allowing Argentines to visit the islands, [/INST] re-establishing air-links, and acceptance of an Argentine offer to clear landmines left over from the war. </s> |
2,122 | <s>[INST] Among more moderate sections of [/INST] Falklands opinion, there is a belief in greater flexibility. </s> |
2,123 | <s>[INST] Mr Terry Betts, an island businessman and one of three [/INST] Falklands representatives at the ABC conference, says Falklanders should be "reconciliatory, by allowing Argentines to visit the islands". </s> |
2,124 | <s>[INST] Mr Betts, who is an advocate of strengthening the island [/INST] economy in preparation for possible independence, believes Falklanders should take the initiative before changes are forced on them. </s> |
2,125 | <s>[INST] "We cannot hang on to [/INST] the apron strings of Great Britain forever," he says. </s> |
2,126 | <s>[INST] In Britain, the possible election of [/INST] a Labour government next year could subtly shift the equation. </s> |
2,127 | <s>[INST] Mr Tam Dalyell, a Labour parliamentarian who questioned Britain's use of [/INST] military force in 1982, says he would try to persuade a Labour government to move "towards some concept of independence". </s> |
2,128 | <s>[INST] "It is totally unacceptable," he says, "for [/INST] such a very small tail to be wagging such a big dog". </s> |
2,129 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 15 of 400 Argentina's army chief [/INST] visits Britain Author: Pilling, David Publication info: Financial Times [London (UK)] 05 Nov 1996: 04. </s> |
2,130 | <s>[INST] Full text: General Martin Balza, Argentina's army chief, yesterday began a [/INST] three-day official visit to Britain, becoming the highest-level military official to be received in London since the 1982 Falklands war. </s> |
2,131 | <s>[INST] Gen Balza's arrival - which coincided with that [/INST] of Mr Roque Fernandez, economy minister - was considered "highly significant" by British military officials. </s> |
2,132 | <s>[INST] They said such top-level contacts [/INST] were an important part of normalising bilateral relations. </s> |
2,133 | <s>[INST] Full diplomatic links between the two countries were [/INST] re-established in 1990, even though Buenos Aires maintains its sovereignty claim over the Falkland islands. </s> |
2,134 | <s>[INST] Gen Balza, who was taken prisoner during the 1982 war, is [/INST] expected to press for an end to a British arms embargo, particularly on spare parts for the Argentine navy . </s> |
2,135 | <s>[INST] Both governments deny recent press [/INST] claims that the embargo has been secretly relaxed. </s> |
2,136 | <s>[INST] "We are very sorry that Britain has not tackled the [/INST] problem and that we still have an arms embargo on," said Mr Guido Di Tella, Argentina's foreign minister. </s> |
2,137 | <s>[INST] Argentina had explicitly stated in its constitution [/INST] that it would not press its claim to the Falklands by military means. </s> |
2,138 | <s>[INST] Mr Fernandez, who arrived yesterday, took [/INST] over the economy ministry in July from Mr Domingo Cavallo. </s> |
2,139 | <s>[INST] Mr Fernandez is heading a [/INST] mission of more than 100 Argentine business leaders. </s> |
2,140 | <s>[INST] British investors will be keen to establish links with the new [/INST] economy minister, whose last-minute cancellation of a trip to the UK and Europe last month drew criticism from some quarters. </s> |
2,141 | <s>[INST] Mr Fernandez, whose trip to London is only his second international foray since [/INST] taking office, arrived with a stamp of approval from the International Monetary Fund , which last week accepted new macro-economic targets set by his team. </s> |
2,142 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 114 of 400 Back on track [/INST] for growth Author: Fidler, Stephen Publication info: Financial Times [London (UK)] 27 Sep 1996: 12. </s> |
2,143 | <s>[INST] Full text: * Latin America: by Stephen Fidler Back on track for growth A [/INST] tightening of international liquidity could present problems for the region Latin America has recovered from its tequila hangover more rapidly than seemed possible a year ago. </s> |
2,144 | <s>[INST] After last year's anaemic growth performance in the region, [/INST] following the Mexican financial crisis, forecasters have ratcheted up their growth predictions for 1996 and 1997. </s> |
2,145 | <s>[INST] According to a survey in August of 60 forecasters by the London-based Consensus [/INST] Economics , Latin American growth should rise to 3 per cent this year and 4.3 per cent next, from 0.7 per cent last year. </s> |
2,146 | <s>[INST] Mexico is expected to grow at 3.5 per cent in 1996 and 4.5 per cent in 1997, after its 1995 GDP decline of [/INST] 7 per cent; Brazil at 2.7 per cent and 4.3 per cent over the next two years, after reaching a figure of 4.1 per cent last year; and Argentina at 3.1 per cent and 4.6 per cent after contracting by 4.4 per cent last year. </s> |
2,147 | <s>[INST] Forecasters believe that Chile , the region's fastest growing economy last year with growth of [/INST] 8.5 per cent, will remain in that position at least until the end of 1997, growing at 7 per cent this year and 5.5 per cent next year. </s> |
2,148 | <s>[INST] Expectations that the region's growth would accelerate were widespread [/INST] in 1994 before the outlook changed for the worse after the disastrous devaluation of the Mexican peso. </s> |
2,149 | <s>[INST] Furthermore, growth has not been [/INST] fast enough to keep poverty from growing. </s> |
2,150 | <s>[INST] "The slow recovery of the regional economies is troublesome for a [/INST] number of economic, social and political reasons," said Shahid Javed Burki and Sebastian Edwards in a World Bank publication. </s> |
2,151 | <s>[INST] It is generating disillusion with reform, and encouraging reform sceptics who [/INST] "do not have a coherent plan and tend to offer an assortment of mutually inconsistent policies with an unmistakeable populist flavour". </s> |
2,152 | <s>[INST] The economies worst hit by the crisis, Mexico and Argentina, [/INST] recovered in 1996 - but in the context of low international interest rates and plentiful international liquidity. </s> |
2,153 | <s>[INST] According to the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, private capital flows [/INST] to the region this year should approach $50bn, close to the record levels of the early 1990s, half of which will be in the form of direct investment. </s> |
2,154 | <s>[INST] Such an environment has allowed Mexico to refinance an important portion of its foreign debt coming due in the [/INST] next two years - including all but $3.5bn of the money lent by the US government as part of an international rescue package - and has eased pressure on the Argentine economy and others in the region. </s> |
2,155 | <s>[INST] A tightening of international liquidity, the first signal for which [/INST] could appear at any time through a rise in US interest rates, could create a more difficult financing environment. </s> |
2,156 | <s>[INST] According to Derek Hargreaves of JP Morgan in New York: [/INST] "The last time [the Federal Reserve] began to tighten in February 1994, emerging markets fell out of bed. </s> |
2,157 | <s>[INST] This, he says, is because important barometers such as the Mexican peso have weakened already in anticipation; the US bond market looks [/INST] less vulnerable and is much less leveraged than in early 1994 - as are most emerging markets; emerging markets yields are much higher relative to US yields; and higher US rates should be offset by lower interest rates in Japan and Europe. </s> |
2,158 | <s>[INST] However, he adds: "This is not to say that a Fed move will be a total [/INST] non-event for emerging markets, especially as the likely ultimate size of the move - 100 basis points over the next nine months - is greater than the market currently expects. </s> |
2,159 | <s>[INST] More important will be shifts [/INST] in the perceptions of local economic performance". </s> |
2,160 | <s>[INST] The recovery from recession has gone as well as the government [/INST] could realistically have hoped, due in large part to a surprisingly strong export performance and helped by oil price increases. </s> |
2,161 | <s>[INST] Exports rose by more than 30 per cent in [/INST] 1995 to $79.5bn and grew by a further 20 per cent in the first half of 1996. </s> |
2,162 | <s>[INST] However, if Mexico favourably surprised the financial markets, [/INST] Argentina disappointed them - although official figures have suggested signs of a stronger recovery. </s> |
2,163 | <s>[INST] The arrangement by the central bank of $5bn of [/INST] standby finance from international banks in case of a run on the banking system also boosted confidence. </s> |
2,164 | <s>[INST] Without the mechanism of currency devaluation at its disposal - the so-called convertibility plan ties [/INST] the Argentine peso to the dollar and means the monetary base must be fully backed by international reserves - the government cannot rely on a rapid Mexican-style export-led recovery. </s> |
2,165 | <s>[INST] The short-term outlook for the [/INST] economy is thus heavily dependent on capital inflows. </s> |
2,166 | <s>[INST] Austerity and record unemployment have contributed to a sharp fall [/INST] in the popularity of President Carlos Menem, and the sacking in late July of economy minister, Domingo Cavallo. </s> |
2,167 | <s>[INST] Although Mr Cavallo was replaced by a man viewed as equally committed [/INST] to the convertibility plan, the former central bank president, Roque Fernandez, some observers doubted Mr Fernandez's ability to manoeuvre in the political system. </s> |
2,168 | <s>[INST] One of his immediate problems has been to deal with Argentina's [/INST] budget deficit, this year expected to top $5bn, double the $2.5bn target initially agreed with the International Monetary Fund. </s> |
2,169 | <s>[INST] While the IMF may tolerate this in 1996, next year it [/INST] is likely to insist on sharply reducing the deficit to some $3bn, necessitating further tough action from the government. </s> |
2,170 | <s>[INST] Brazil's budget deficit is also giving rise to [/INST] continuing concern and is seen as a threat to the government's counter-inflation plan. </s> |
2,171 | <s>[INST] In the year to June, the public sector reported [/INST] an operating deficit of 5.6 per cent of GDP, compared with 4.9 per cent last December. </s> |
2,172 | <s>[INST] This year's deficit is expected at around 4 [/INST] per cent of GDP, more than double the deficit target of 2.5 per cent. </s> |
2,173 | <s>[INST] According to Mr Burki and Mr Edwards of the World Bank , the size of last [/INST] year's deficit was "scary", and their concern about the growth of the government's domestic debt burden was echoed by the IMF director of fiscal affairs, Vitor Tanzi, this month. </s> |
2,174 | <s>[INST] President Fernando Cardoso's government has been unable to secure constitutional reforms [/INST] that would provide long-term stability to the budget, which means that the public finances will remain a source of investor concern. </s> |
2,175 | <s>[INST] Some observers see the president as being [/INST] further weakened if his supporters do badly in October's municipal elections. </s> |
2,176 | <s>[INST] Brazil has more flexibility at its disposal in economic policy [/INST] than did Argentina and Mexico until December 1994, and is able to use discretion in managing the exchange rate. </s> |
2,177 | <s>[INST] Still, economists in Brazil are closely [/INST] watching what is happening in Argentina and vice versa. </s> |
2,178 | <s>[INST] Some economists believe that if their fiscal imbalances [/INST] are reduced through faster growth, their current account deficits could well grow disturbingly quickly. </s> |
2,179 | <s>[INST] According to Mr Nightingale of Latinvest: "The finance ministries of [/INST] the two countries have to contend with comparable problems in regard to their fiscal and external imbalances. </s> |
2,180 | <s>[INST] Both know that it is difficult to implement policies [/INST] that tend to improve both: those that ameliorate the one tend to exacerbate the other". </s> |
2,181 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 131 of 400 Argentine production rises AMERICAN [/INST] NEWS DIGEST Author: Pilling, David Publication info: Financial Times [London (UK)] 24 Sep 1996: 04. </s> |
2,182 | <s>[INST] Full text: Argentine production rises Industrial production in Argentina rose vigorously in August, [/INST] placing beyond doubt the strength of economic recovery from last year's deep recession, according to a report released yesterday by the influential FIEL economic think-tank. </s> |
2,183 | <s>[INST] Preliminary figures for August placed FIEL's industrial production index, [/INST] the most watched Argentine economic indicator, 9.2 per cent higher than in the same month of 1995. </s> |
2,184 | <s>[INST] August marked the fifth consecutive month [/INST] of increased output, following 12 months of straight decline. </s> |
2,185 | <s>[INST] The economy, which contracted 4.4 per cent last year following the [/INST] effects of the Mexican devaluation, had begun to recover this January, according to Mr Abel Viglione, an economist at FIEL. </s> |
2,186 | <s>[INST] "We had growth in the second quarter [/INST] and growth will be very strong in the third quarter," he said. </s> |
2,187 | <s>[INST] Despite ample evidence of recovery, the [/INST] Argentine public continues to believe the economy is mired in recession. </s> |
2,188 | <s>[INST] In a recent opinion poll, 85 per [/INST] cent of respondents said they thought the economy would stagnate or decline further. </s> |
2,189 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 178 of 400 Argentine economic gloom [/INST] growing Author: Pilling, David Publication info: Financial Times [London (UK)] 11 Sep 1996: 04. </s> |
2,190 | <s>[INST] Full text: Nearly half the Argentine public believe that peso-dollar parity will ultimately [/INST] be abandoned, while 85 per cent fear that the economy will stagnate or plunge deeper into recession, according to an opinion poll published yesterday. </s> |
2,191 | <s>[INST] The poll, compiled by Ricardo A. Rouvier & Associados , reflects the dour mood [/INST] of many Argentines, who are losing patience with an administration which they suspect is unable to drag the economy from recession or to tackle record unemployment. </s> |
2,192 | <s>[INST] Of particular concern to the administration may be the finding that [/INST] only 58.2 per cent of the 600 people polled believe that convertibility, which pegs the peso to the dollar, will survive. </s> |
2,193 | <s>[INST] Convertibility, introduced in 1991, is the cornerstone of the [/INST] government's economic policy and the foundation upon which price stability and economic modernisation has been built. </s> |
2,194 | <s>[INST] Mr Rosendo Fraga, a political analyst, [/INST] argues that convertibility still enjoys a high degree of confidence. </s> |
2,195 | <s>[INST] "Given that the economy contracted 4.4 per cent last year, that we [/INST] have 17.1 per cent unemployment, and that we have just changed economy ministers, I would say 58 per cent is high". </s> |
2,196 | <s>[INST] However, only a month ago, a poll by the Rouvier group found that 85.5 [/INST] per cent of Argentines were confident that convertibility would be maintained, nearly 30 points above the latest findings, while 73.5 per cent felt inflation was under control. </s> |
2,197 | <s>[INST] According to the latest poll, only 45.3 per cent of Argentines still [/INST] believe inflation is not a danger, in spite of the fact that retail prices have actually fallen in the past 12 months. </s> |
2,198 | <s>[INST] "Our collective memory of hyperinflation [/INST] is still very strong," said Mr Ricardo Rouvier. </s> |
2,199 | <s>[INST] When Mr Cavallo was sacked in late [/INST] July, some Argentines lost their conviction that peso-dollar parity would survive, he said. </s> |
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