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1,200 | <s>[INST] Though most gross-domestic-product forecasts for the region have been trimmed, [/INST] it appears that Latin economies have already undertaken many of the painful market reforms now required of Asia. </s> |
1,201 | <s>[INST] Latin American stock markets had seemed invincible through the first half of 1997, [/INST] exaggerating the gains of U.S. markets and benefiting from the region's strong export growth, low inflation, massive foreign capital inflows and burgeoning local capital markets. </s> |
1,202 | <s>[INST] Even an opposition victory in the Mexican congress [/INST] and delays in Brazilian privatizations didn't stop investors from pouring money into Latin stocks. </s> |
1,203 | <s>[INST] But when the Thai baht [/INST] fell to speculators, all emerging markets suddenly seemed suspect. </s> |
1,204 | <s>[INST] Although Latin markets still moved in a rocky path upward for several months, investors seeking [/INST] to protect their record profits and nervous about soaring stock valuations had moved into a defensive trading mode and were braced to see whether the volatility would persist. </s> |
1,205 | <s>[INST] Speculative attacks on the Hong Kong dollar in late October prompted [/INST] a massive sell-off of Latin stocks that led to the largest price declines since the 1994 Mexican peso crisis. </s> |
1,206 | <s>[INST] Attention focused on overlooked problems in [/INST] Latin economies, in particular Brazil's big trade deficits and overvalued currency. </s> |
1,207 | <s>[INST] In Canada, the stock market failed to [/INST] meet expectations, in large part because of bad news affecting important natural-resource stocks. </s> |
1,208 | <s>[INST] Latin America appears to have [/INST] emerged from 1997 battered but not broken. </s> |
1,209 | <s>[INST] Latin governments moved resolutely to defend [/INST] their currencies against speculators, securing investor confidence in regional economic programs. </s> |
1,210 | <s>[INST] In late November, Latin markets rallied as investors [/INST] acknowledged that most economic fundamentals that powered the region's ascent earlier last year haven't changed. </s> |
1,211 | <s>[INST] Though most gross-domestic-product forecasts for the region have been trimmed, [/INST] it appears that Latin economies have already undertaken many of the painful market reforms now required of Asia. </s> |
1,212 | <s>[INST] Although more bad news from Asia could upset Latin markets again, [/INST] analysts say it is unlikely to provoke another massive sell-off on the scale seen in October and November of last year. </s> |
1,213 | <s>[INST] Analysts say those sell-offs made many Latin [/INST] stocks look inexpensive, which should attract investors back to the region. </s> |
1,214 | <s>[INST] Here is a look at some individual markets: [/INST] MEXICO Mexico surprised investors with its resiliency in the face of worrisome vulnerabilities. </s> |
1,215 | <s>[INST] The rally continued apace as Mexico astounded [/INST] analysts with quarterly GDP-growth rates above even the most bullish estimates. </s> |
1,216 | <s>[INST] Strong flows of money into Mexico's financial markets [/INST] pushed the peso up in inflation-adjusted terms against the dollar, and domestic consumption revived. </s> |
1,217 | <s>[INST] Around midyear, hand-wringing over [/INST] midterm elections dimmed enthusiasm for Mexican shares. </s> |
1,218 | <s>[INST] The ruling party lost its majority [/INST] in the lower house for the first time in modern memory. </s> |
1,219 | <s>[INST] But the defeat produced a positive [/INST] surprise: Mexicans celebrated the elections as a necessary step toward democracy. </s> |
1,220 | <s>[INST] In about one week in [/INST] October, Mexico's stock market slid around 20%. </s> |
1,221 | <s>[INST] Interest rates shot higher, and [/INST] the peso fell sharply against the dollar. </s> |
1,222 | <s>[INST] The IPC finished 1997 [/INST] with a 51.2% gain in dollar terms. </s> |
1,223 | <s>[INST] CANADA Canadian stock markets stubbornly [/INST] refused to perform as predicted in 1997. </s> |
1,224 | <s>[INST] In 1996, the TSE 300-stock index outperformed the U.S. [/INST] Standard & Poor's 500-stock average, and everyone was set for more of the same in 1997. </s> |
1,225 | <s>[INST] Instead, the TSE 300 rose just [/INST] 13%, compared with a 31% gain in the S&P 500. </s> |
1,226 | <s>[INST] "The predictions were built on a traditional economic cycle, with a pickup in the world [/INST] economic cycle leading to higher commodity prices," says Ian Joseph, a fund manager at Altamira Investment Services Inc. A slew of bad news hit Canada's resource stocks. </s> |
1,227 | <s>[INST] The price of gold fell below [/INST] US$300 an ounce, laying waste to Canadian gold share prices. </s> |
1,228 | <s>[INST] Fears that OPEC would raise production quotas [/INST] squeezed the price of oil, and that hit Canadian energy stocks. </s> |
1,229 | <s>[INST] But it was a banner year for [/INST] financial-services companies, pipelines and utilities, interest-sensitive sectors that were expected to pull back. </s> |
1,230 | <s>[INST] The economic turmoil in Asia, along with sinking commodity [/INST] prices, slammed the Canadian dollar, and economists are cutting their GDP growth estimates for Canada for 1998. </s> |
1,231 | <s>[INST] BRAZIL Last year was turbulent in Brazil, [/INST] and this year is likely to bring more of the same, say analysts. </s> |
1,232 | <s>[INST] On the contrary, the country is likely to continue its torrid [/INST] pace of selling off state-owned companies, says Tim Love, head of Latin America research and strategy at ING Baring in London. </s> |
1,233 | <s>[INST] At one point last year, Brazil's stock [/INST] market, as measured by the Bovespa index, was up more than 70%. </s> |
1,234 | <s>[INST] Worries about the real, which many believe is overvalued, sparked massive selling [/INST] of Brazilian stocks and bonds in the fourth quarter and forced the government to sharply raise interest rates and cut official spending. </s> |
1,235 | <s>[INST] The result: a much lower but still healthy [/INST] year-end return of about 35% in dollar terms for the Bovespa, and slower economic growth. </s> |
1,236 | <s>[INST] ARGENTINA Argentina's Merval index ended [/INST] up a dismal 5.8% in dollar terms in 1997. </s> |
1,237 | <s>[INST] Despite strong domestic growth numbers and a stable economy, Argentina was [/INST] ensnared in the market turmoil largely because of its close economic ties with Brazil, which buys 30% of Argentine exports. </s> |
1,238 | <s>[INST] Any further sell-off of Brazilian stocks, or [/INST] attacks on the real, would likely spill over into the Argentine stock market. </s> |
1,239 | <s>[INST] Despite the volatility, Argentina was the first [/INST] emerging-market country to issue Eurobonds following the height of the Asian crisis. </s> |
1,240 | <s>[INST] The bond issue was a testament to investors' confidence [/INST] in the country's one-to-one currency convertibility program with the U.S. dollar, the linchpin of its economic-stabilization program. </s> |
1,241 | <s>[INST] CHILE In 1997, Chile lost [/INST] its status as a haven for investors. </s> |
1,242 | <s>[INST] Chile is more directly exposed to Asia than any [/INST] other Latin country, with 33% of its exports headed to Asia, according to Goldman Sachs. </s> |
1,243 | <s>[INST] Half of those exports are commodities, [/INST] primarily copper, which have already come under global price pressure. </s> |
1,244 | <s>[INST] Thus after stretching to more than 30% gains [/INST] at midyear, Chile's IPSA index closed the year up 9.3% in dollar terms. </s> |
1,245 | <s>[INST] COLOMBIA Despite a sharp increase in guerrilla attacks on oil pipelines [/INST] and political figures, Colombia's stock market rose about 32% in dollar terms last year, as measured by the Ibomed index. </s> |
1,246 | <s>[INST] The current president's protege, Horacio Serpa, [/INST] is the front-runner for presidential elections scheduled for May. </s> |
1,247 | <s>[INST] He isn't expected to do much about a [/INST] growing budget deficit problem that has kept interest rates high and hurt the economy. </s> |
1,248 | <s>[INST] PERU Peru is, once again, the darling of stock investors in Latin America, thanks to [/INST] a tough austerity program mounted in 1995 to put a brake on inflationary pressures, government spending and consumption of imported products and to shrink a growing fiscal deficit. </s> |
1,249 | <s>[INST] Peru's stocks, as measured by the [/INST] IBVL index, rose 19% in dollar terms last year. </s> |
1,250 | <s>[INST] The big risk on the horizon is [/INST] El Nino, a periodic warming of waters off the coast of Peru. </s> |
1,251 | <s>[INST] El Nino caused great damage [/INST] to Peru's fish exports in the early 1980s. </s> |
1,252 | <s>[INST] VENEZUELA Venezuela is yet another Latin nation facing [/INST] presidential elections this year (in December), but analysts don't expect major changes in economic policy. </s> |
1,253 | <s>[INST] Venezuela's economy has long depended on [/INST] the success or failure of its huge oil industry. </s> |
1,254 | <s>[INST] 1 foreign supplier of oil to the U.S. With the oil industry [/INST] booming with billions of dollars of new foreign investment, the nonoil portion of the economy is starting to benefit, says Lawrence. </s> |
1,255 | <s>[INST] Krohn, head of Latin America [/INST] economic research for UBS Securities LLC in New York. </s> |
1,256 | <s>[INST] But continued appreciation in the value of Venezuela's currency, the [/INST] bolivar, over the next year, is likely to hurt the nonoil sector by year's end, Mr. Krohn says. </s> |
1,257 | <s>[INST] "The question is when the markets will sense [/INST] that a devaluation in the currency" is inevitable for 1999, Mr. Krohn warns. </s> |
1,258 | <s>[INST] "So we're counseling caution towards [/INST] the end of the year," he says. </s> |
1,259 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 163 of 500 In Argentina, Acquisition Talks Could Lead to [/INST] Supermarket Giant Author: By Craig Torres Publication info: Wall Street Journal , Eastern edition [New York, N.Y] 21 Dec 1998: A14. </s> |
1,260 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: In a deal that would create Argentina's largest supermarket group, [/INST] Promodes SA of France and Argentine buyout fund Exxel Group are in negotiations to buy local retailer Tia SA for about $630 million. </s> |
1,261 | <s>[INST] The Tia acquisition, which is still in the works, follows [/INST] the French retailer's purchase of a 49% stake in Exxel Group's Supermercados Norte SA in September for $420 million. </s> |
1,262 | <s>[INST] That deal showed how valuable supermarket properties had become to strategic [/INST] buyers and proved to be a home run for Exxel, which purchased Norte only two years earlier for $380 million. </s> |
1,263 | <s>[INST] Full text: BUENOS AIRES -- In a deal that would create Argentina's largest [/INST] supermarket group, Promodes SA of France and Argentine buyout fund Exxel Group are in negotiations to buy local retailer Tia SA for about $630 million. </s> |
1,264 | <s>[INST] The Tia acquisition, which is still in the works, follows [/INST] the French retailer's purchase of a 49% stake in Exxel Group's Supermercados Norte SA in September for $420 million. </s> |
1,265 | <s>[INST] That deal showed how valuable supermarket properties had become to strategic [/INST] buyers and proved to be a home run for Exxel, which purchased Norte only two years earlier for $380 million. </s> |
1,266 | <s>[INST] Rising incomes, easing inflation and economic stability in South [/INST] America's largest economies has set off a battle for market share among supermarkets in the region. </s> |
1,267 | <s>[INST] Privately held, family-run chains such as Tia are [/INST] selling to larger buyers, who are trying to capture new brands, formats and location. </s> |
1,268 | <s>[INST] Analysts at Robert Fleming Inc. in New York said the combined Argentina market share [/INST] of Tia and Norte would reach 16.7%, putting the group ahead of another French chain, Carrefour, which would rank second with market share of 13.7%. </s> |
1,269 | <s>[INST] Combined sales of Tia and [/INST] Norte would total more than $2 billion, analysts say. </s> |
1,270 | <s>[INST] Last month, the majority shareholders of Argentine [/INST] grocer Disco SA announced a tender offer for the publicly held shares. </s> |
1,271 | <s>[INST] Though the tender offer was made at a 35% premium to the [/INST] stock price, analysts were critical, saying Disco's controlling shareholders were getting the company at a cheap valuation of 0.42 times estimated 1998 sales. </s> |
1,272 | <s>[INST] Exxel and Promodes are laying out 0.75 to one [/INST] times estimated sales for Tia, assuming the deal includes the assumption of debt, analysts say. </s> |
1,273 | <s>[INST] While the lofty price for Tia would lend support to criticisms about [/INST] the Disco tender offer price, analysts said Exxel and Promodes might also be overpaying, especially because Argentina's economic growth will slow next year. </s> |
1,274 | <s>[INST] "Of the 12 transactions in the Latin American supermarket sector in [/INST] the last year, this is by far the most expensive," said Thomas Mobille, global retail coordinator for Robert Fleming. </s> |
1,275 | <s>[INST] A spokesman for the Exxel Group confirmed the general [/INST] terms of the deal as reported in Argentine newspapers, but declined further comment until the transaction concludes. </s> |
1,276 | <s>[INST] A spokesman declined to comment on [/INST] the deal's valuation relative to other acquisitions earlier this year. </s> |
1,277 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 191 of 500 Economic Moderate Wins Key Argentine Primary --- Buenos [/INST] Aires Mayor Faces Ruling Party Author: By Craig Torres Publication info: Wall Street Journal , Eastern edition [New York, N.Y] 01 Dec 1998: A16. </s> |
1,278 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: Argentina kicked off its presidential election year with a vote for [/INST] economic continuity as Buenos Aires Mayor Fernando de la Rua emerged as the candidate who will challenge President Carlos Menem's Peronist Party in 1999. </s> |
1,279 | <s>[INST] Mr. de la Rua, a 61-year-old lawyer and member of Argentina's centrist Radical [/INST] Party, handily defeated his leftist opponent, Graciela Fernandez Meijide, in the weekend primary staged by a coalition of opposition parties known as the Alliance. </s> |
1,280 | <s>[INST] Analysts said the results show that Argentines don't want drastic [/INST] changes with the free-market model endorsed by Mr. Menem; they just want it administered with greater transparency and honesty. </s> |
1,281 | <s>[INST] Mr. de la Rua's Radical Party took a bad economy and made it [/INST] worse in the 1980s by sustaining a bloated state with monetary expansion; that led to an inflation spiral that nearly destroyed Argentine industry. </s> |
1,282 | <s>[INST] But the party has presented itself as highly [/INST] ethical, and that has attracted voters exhausted by the murky scandals surrounding the Menem administration. </s> |
1,283 | <s>[INST] Full text: BUENOS AIRES -- Argentina kicked off its presidential election year with a [/INST] vote for economic continuity as Buenos Aires Mayor Fernando de la Rua emerged as the candidate who will challenge President Carlos Menem's Peronist Party in 1999. </s> |
1,284 | <s>[INST] Mr. de la Rua, a 61-year-old lawyer and member of Argentina's centrist Radical [/INST] Party, handily defeated his leftist opponent, Graciela Fernandez Meijide, in the weekend primary staged by a coalition of opposition parties known as the Alliance. </s> |
1,285 | <s>[INST] Analysts said the results show that Argentines don't want drastic [/INST] changes with the free-market model endorsed by Mr. Menem; they just want it administered with greater transparency and honesty. </s> |
1,286 | <s>[INST] "This is a vote that shows Argentines want to basically [/INST] maintain what they have achieved," said Martin Redrado, president of Fundacion Capital, an economic think tank here. </s> |
1,287 | <s>[INST] "There is no way back [/INST] to the years of fiscal and monetary irresponsibility". </s> |
1,288 | <s>[INST] Mr. de la Rua's Radical Party took a bad economy and made it [/INST] worse in the 1980s by sustaining a bloated state with monetary expansion; that led to an inflation spiral that nearly destroyed Argentine industry. </s> |
1,289 | <s>[INST] But the party has presented itself as highly [/INST] ethical, and that has attracted voters exhausted by the murky scandals surrounding the Menem administration. </s> |
1,290 | <s>[INST] Analysts add that the opposition [/INST] has learned several lessons from Mr. Menem. </s> |
1,291 | <s>[INST] The Alliance said last August that the anchor of the Menem [/INST] model, a currency board system where all pesos in circulation are backed by dollars, must be maintained to "consolidate stability". </s> |
1,292 | <s>[INST] While it is too early to say who Mr. de la Rua will [/INST] choose as his economy minister, many analysts point to the business establishment's support for Ricardo Lopez Murphy, an orthodox economist from the Radical Party. </s> |
1,293 | <s>[INST] "He is very tough in everything related to fiscal [/INST] issues," says Pedro Lacoste, head of the Buenos Aires economics firm that bears his name. </s> |
1,294 | <s>[INST] "He would [look] for [/INST] ways to make public expenditures more efficient". </s> |
1,295 | <s>[INST] But just how much latitude Mr. Lopez Murphy or [/INST] any other economist would have within Mr. de la Rua's cabinet is a big question. </s> |
1,296 | <s>[INST] Part of the strength of Mr. de la Rua's candidacy [/INST] rests in the Alliance, an uneasy coalition formed by the Radical Party with various left and center-left parties. </s> |
1,297 | <s>[INST] Argentina has shown remarkable resilience in the [/INST] face of one of the most turbulent years ever for emerging economies. </s> |
1,298 | <s>[INST] Even with its gigantic neighbor Brazil on the rocks [/INST] Argentina experienced little capital flight, a sign that the public believes the currency scheme here is bullet-proof. </s> |
1,299 | <s>[INST] That said, the next government faces urgent [/INST] tasks, including fixing chronic unemployment and making Argentine industry more competitive. </s> |
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