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1,400 | <s>[INST] Nevertheless, Mr. Cornelsen acknowledged that "some [/INST] kind of South American monetary union is ultimately inevitable". </s> |
1,401 | <s>[INST] Even without a common currency, Mercosur already stands [/INST] as the most ambitious experiment in economic and social integration in South American history. </s> |
1,402 | <s>[INST] It is all the more notable because historically, [/INST] there has been no love lost between the haughty Argentines and the freewheeling Brazilians. </s> |
1,403 | <s>[INST] Argentina and Brazil fought a war against each other, and as recently [/INST] as the 1980s Brazilians were still building their railroads with wider tracks than Argentina's, to make it that much harder on potential invaders. </s> |
1,404 | <s>[INST] But faced with intractable problems of stagnation and inflation at the start [/INST] of this decade, the two neighbors laid aside age-old grudges to develop an economic union that also encompassed Uruguay and Paraguay. </s> |
1,405 | <s>[INST] "Germany and France constituted the pivot of the construction of the [/INST] European Union, and Brazil and Argentina are doing the same for Mercosur," Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso said not long ago. </s> |
1,406 | <s>[INST] Since the start of the [/INST] decade, trade within the Latin colossus has grown fivefold. </s> |
1,407 | <s>[INST] Auto makers alone are investing [/INST] $20 billion in heavily integrated plants throughout the region. </s> |
1,408 | <s>[INST] Argentine naval pilots now train on Brazilian aircraft carriers; [/INST] Brazilian translators are preparing special Portuguese-language versions of the works of Argentine novelist Jose Luis Borges. </s> |
1,409 | <s>[INST] When India and Pakistan recently went mano a mano in a [/INST] nuclear arms race, President Clinton lectured the Asians to learn from Argentina and Brazil about cross-border cooperation on peaceful nuclear-power projects. </s> |
1,410 | <s>[INST] The aftermath of Mexico's 1994 peso [/INST] crisis proved the biggest threat yet to comity in Mercosur. </s> |
1,411 | <s>[INST] With speculators attacking its economy, Brazil enraged Argentina [/INST] by unilaterally imposing restrictions on auto imports to defend its own commercial interests. </s> |
1,412 | <s>[INST] The dispute grew so bitter that one Argentine newspaper [/INST] provoked a formal diplomatic protest from Brazil's government by publishing a racist editorial cartoon about Brazilians. </s> |
1,413 | <s>[INST] Notably, there have been no [/INST] such flare-ups during the current Brazilian crisis. </s> |
1,414 | <s>[INST] That may reflect the fact that cross-border ties have gotten so [/INST] close, and touched so many different areas of society, that there seems to be no turning back for either country. </s> |
1,415 | <s>[INST] Argentina has made massive investments in Brazil [/INST] and counts on its neighbor as the market for one-third of its exports. </s> |
1,416 | <s>[INST] YPF SA, Argentina's largest oil company, has several joint ventures with Petroleo Brasileiro SA, the state-controlled [/INST] Brazilian oil company, that range from mutual exploration of oil fields to a quirky program where YPF will open gas stations in Brazil and Petrobras will open stations in Argentina. </s> |
1,417 | <s>[INST] The idea is to expand both brands [/INST] in what both companies believe will some day be a common market. </s> |
1,418 | <s>[INST] A novel by Brazilian New [/INST] Age writer Paulo Coelho is now ranked No. </s> |
1,419 | <s>[INST] At Brooklyn Bridge SA, a Buenos Aires language school [/INST] used by many Argentine businesses, enrollments in Portuguese classes are up 60% over the past four years. </s> |
1,420 | <s>[INST] Of course, what's driving the [/INST] ties is business and that depends on stability. </s> |
1,421 | <s>[INST] "I receive calls nearly every day from Argentine businessmen asking me [/INST] if Brazil has devalued yet," said Alberto Alzueta, vice president of the Argentine Chamber of Commerce office in Sao Paulo. </s> |
1,422 | <s>[INST] Many Argentines see such a plan [/INST] as a form of protecting their own interests in Brazil. </s> |
1,423 | <s>[INST] Said Domingo Cavallo, the former economy minister who was architect of Argentina's stabilization: "One [/INST] of the causes of the crisis we are living in is that there are too many monetary policies in the world pretending to be independent," he said. </s> |
1,424 | <s>[INST] "Regional monies or convertibility regimens are [/INST] advances in the right direction for a better international monetary system". </s> |
1,425 | <s>[INST] Jose Alexandre Sheinkman, a Brazilian who is an [/INST] economist at the University of Chicago, said he sees many virtues in Argentina's currency model. </s> |
1,426 | <s>[INST] But he added that discussions of monetary [/INST] reform are largely a distraction until Brazil puts its fiscal house in order. </s> |
1,427 | <s>[INST] "The major problem Brazil has is the deficit, and [/INST] once we solve this problem, there are many ways we can organize our monetary system," he said. </s> |
1,428 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 225 of 500 World Bank Approves* Loans Of [/INST] $3 Billion for Argentina Publication info: Wall Street Journal , Eastern edition [New York, N.Y] 11 Nov 1998: B7A. </s> |
1,429 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: The World Bank approved $3 billion [/INST] in loans to help Argentina strengthen its financial system and implement further economic reforms. </s> |
1,430 | <s>[INST] Full text: WASHINGTON -- The World Bank approved $3 [/INST] billion in loans to help Argentina strengthen its financial system and implement further economic reforms. </s> |
1,431 | <s>[INST] The two loans will "support continued efforts of the government of [/INST] Argentina to transform its economy and to protect the gains achieved so far," the Bank said in a statement. </s> |
1,432 | <s>[INST] Calling Argentina "one of Latin America's most successful reformers," the Bank said the country [/INST] has achieved price stability, opened its markets to more global trade, privatized public enterprises, restructured public administration, reformed the pension system and has started restoring social services. </s> |
1,433 | <s>[INST] One loan, worth $2.5 billion, will help meet the [/INST] Argentine government's foreign-exchange needs and help shield the country from global financial instability, while its reforms continue. </s> |
1,434 | <s>[INST] The second loan, worth $505 [/INST] million, is intended to strengthen the banking system. </s> |
1,435 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 231 of 500 Huge Rollover Of Debt Faces Global Lenders --- Over $34 Billion [/INST] in Bonds Of Emerging Markets Due for '99 Redemption Author: By Yasmin Hassany and Cecile Gutscher Publication info: Wall Street Journal , Eastern edition [New York, N.Y] 09 Nov 1998: B13D. </s> |
1,436 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: Bankers and investors in emerging [/INST] markets can't afford to spend too much time crying into their espressos. </s> |
1,437 | <s>[INST] After being savaged by global economic woes, the question of how [/INST] they will roll over tens of billions of dollars in emerging-market bonds coming due next year still hangs over their heads. </s> |
1,438 | <s>[INST] There are about $34.37 billion of international [/INST] bond redemptions due in 1999 from emerging-market issuers, according to Capital DATA Bondware. </s> |
1,439 | <s>[INST] Of that amount, $7 billion is by sovereign borrowers, [/INST] $7 billion from quasisovereign entities, including authorities and public-sector companies, and $20.09 billion from private entities. </s> |
1,440 | <s>[INST] Full text: LONDON -- Bankers and investors in [/INST] emerging markets can't afford to spend too much time crying into their espressos. </s> |
1,441 | <s>[INST] After being savaged by global economic woes, the question of how [/INST] they will roll over tens of billions of dollars in emerging-market bonds coming due next year still hangs over their heads. </s> |
1,442 | <s>[INST] There are about $34.37 billion of international [/INST] bond redemptions due in 1999 from emerging-market issuers, according to Capital DATA Bondware. </s> |
1,443 | <s>[INST] Of that amount, $7 billion is by sovereign borrowers, [/INST] $7 billion from quasisovereign entities, including authorities and public-sector companies, and $20.09 billion from private entities. </s> |
1,444 | <s>[INST] Aversion to risk is ebbing slowly and efforts by [/INST] the Group of Seven major industrialized nations to stem the global crisis have calmed fears. </s> |
1,445 | <s>[INST] "With the G-7 governments attempting to head off a credit crunch, [/INST] eventually at least part of the redemptions will be rolled over," said Peter West, chief economist at BBV Latinvest. </s> |
1,446 | <s>[INST] The hopeful mood has allowed Argentina, Venezuela, Hungary and [/INST] the Czech Republic's Aero Vodochody to return to the market in the past two weeks. </s> |
1,447 | <s>[INST] All these signs, however, may not [/INST] be enough to fill next year's huge financing needs. </s> |
1,448 | <s>[INST] Emerging-market borrowers will be asking bond investors for [/INST] money against the shadow of further defaults from Russia -- and possibly others. </s> |
1,449 | <s>[INST] Analysts anticipate some, if not [/INST] many, defaults next year, mostly from the private sector. </s> |
1,450 | <s>[INST] "The problem is that if there is [/INST] a sovereign default, then history suggests there will be more than one. </s> |
1,451 | <s>[INST] That's why Brazil is so important," [/INST] said Nick Douch, emerging-markets currency strategist at Barclays Capital in London. </s> |
1,452 | <s>[INST] The numbers alone aren't startling: The [/INST] emerging markets have faced heavier refinancing schedules in the past. </s> |
1,453 | <s>[INST] "But next year won't be like past [/INST] years," said Chris Palmer, head of Latin American investments at Gartmore Investment Management. </s> |
1,454 | <s>[INST] "We're coming off a particularly bad phase in [/INST] emerging-market credits and the appetite is no doubt going to be lower than it was". </s> |
1,455 | <s>[INST] Argentina, which has first-quarter financing needs of $3.7 billion and [/INST] the highest international bond-redemption schedule of $2.28 billion, has shown that it is still possible to access the markets. </s> |
1,456 | <s>[INST] It was able to borrow 500 million German marks ($301 million) on the [/INST] Eurobond market last week in the first new bond offering out of Latin America since the Russian financial crisis erupted in late August. </s> |
1,457 | <s>[INST] "Argentina is a country with [/INST] very strong fundamentals," BBV Latinvest's Mr. West said. </s> |
1,458 | <s>[INST] "The country has continued to manage things in a professional, [/INST] proactive way, which has allayed market fears and in turn makes it easier to access private sectors". </s> |
1,459 | <s>[INST] Brazil, by contrast, is seen as the problem child with huge external financing needs: Some [/INST] estimates put Brazil's government-funding requirement at $8 billion next year, with private-sector borrowings much higher -- at a staggering $27 billion between now and the end of 1999. </s> |
1,460 | <s>[INST] "Brazil is going to have [/INST] a tougher time convincing the markets" than Argentina. </s> |
1,461 | <s>[INST] Hungary and Turkey have the next-largest [/INST] international bond redemptions at $1.262 billion and $1.163 billion, respectively. </s> |
1,462 | <s>[INST] The Russian government still has to persuade Western governments, multilateral lenders and bond investors to reschedule $17.5 [/INST] billion of sovereign debt it can't pay off next year, while the country's banks are expected to have to reschedule tens of billions of dollars more of commercial loans they can't meet. </s> |
1,463 | <s>[INST] If the capital markets remain shut for borrowers, [/INST] they will need to turn to the banking market with short-term syndicated loans. </s> |
1,464 | <s>[INST] A number of Asian governments this fall [/INST] took that route, despite the stricter covenants and shorter terms commercial lenders impose. </s> |
1,465 | <s>[INST] "I expect that the loan market will prove far more competitive than bonds [/INST] in 1999 because the volatility and mark-to-market aspects of tradable bonds is precisely what is frightening most risk management officers," Mr. Palmer said. </s> |
1,466 | <s>[INST] This week, Argentine oil company YPF SA sold $125 [/INST] million of three-year floating-rate notes that in structure seemed more akin to a loan than a bond. </s> |
1,467 | <s>[INST] The deal was still welcomed as [/INST] the first signs of life from the emerging-markets private sector. </s> |
1,468 | <s>[INST] Mr. West believes that given the low yields in the European Union, the [/INST] currencies of the 11 countries that will join in the euro, Europe's common currency, in January will play an increasingly important role in emerging markets. </s> |
1,469 | <s>[INST] The mark, seen as the [/INST] proxy euro, so far is leading the way. </s> |
1,470 | <s>[INST] Mr. Douch of Barclays Capital adds that there is [/INST] still resistance, however, from a number of European funds to extend down the non-investment-grade curve. </s> |
1,471 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 237 of 500 Argentina Likely to Brave Storm From Brazil [/INST] and Grow in 1999 Author: By Craig Torres Publication info: Wall Street Journal , Eastern edition [New York, N.Y] 02 Nov 1998: A30. </s> |
1,472 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: Argentina is expected to surprise the skeptics [/INST] again by growing in 1999 despite a deeper-than-anticipated recession in Brazil, its largest trading partner. </s> |
1,473 | <s>[INST] Brazil announced spending cuts and tax increases [/INST] last week that are likely to result in an even deeper economic contraction. </s> |
1,474 | <s>[INST] Ordinarily, that would be bad news [/INST] for Argentina because Brazil absorbs a third of all Argentine exports. </s> |
1,475 | <s>[INST] But economists think that Argentina can sidestep [/INST] Brazil's economic troubles and grow anywhere from 1.8% to 3.5% next year. </s> |
1,476 | <s>[INST] The country's resilience is in part a [/INST] lesson about how officials in Argentina have skillfully managed their risks. </s> |
1,477 | <s>[INST] While Brazil struggles with billions of dollars in short-term debt, Argentine [/INST] officials have secured a diversified financial backstop of more than $5 billion to help it roll over its maturing bonds. </s> |
1,478 | <s>[INST] Full text: BUENOS AIRES -- Argentina is expected to surprise [/INST] the skeptics again by growing in 1999 despite a deeper-than-anticipated recession in Brazil, its largest trading partner. </s> |
1,479 | <s>[INST] Brazil announced spending cuts and tax increases [/INST] last week that are likely to result in an even deeper economic contraction. </s> |
1,480 | <s>[INST] Ordinarily, that would be bad news [/INST] for Argentina because Brazil absorbs a third of all Argentine exports. </s> |
1,481 | <s>[INST] But economists think that Argentina can sidestep [/INST] Brazil's economic troubles and grow anywhere from 1.8% to 3.5% next year. </s> |
1,482 | <s>[INST] "There is a tremendous amount of momentum [/INST] in the Argentine economy," says Lawrence Goodman, chief economist at Santander Investment. </s> |
1,483 | <s>[INST] The country's resilience is in part a [/INST] lesson about how officials in Argentina have skillfully managed their risks. </s> |
1,484 | <s>[INST] While Brazil struggles with billions of dollars in short-term debt, Argentine [/INST] officials have secured a diversified financial backstop of more than $5 billion to help it roll over its maturing bonds. </s> |
1,485 | <s>[INST] As Brazil loses billions of dollars in foreign reserves, Argentine bank deposits have [/INST] shown little evidence of capital flight, a sign of maturing confidence in the exchange-rate regime where all pesos in circulation are backed by dollars. </s> |
1,486 | <s>[INST] Argentina has also bucked the credit crunch for emerging [/INST] economies and pried open international bond markets with two issues valued at a total of $553 million. </s> |
1,487 | <s>[INST] Discussions are also under way [/INST] with commercial banks for a $500 million bridge loan. </s> |
1,488 | <s>[INST] Another source of cautious optimism is [/INST] that commodity prices will probably firm slightly next year. </s> |
1,489 | <s>[INST] Even the slightest turn in wheat, soy or mineral prices [/INST] would prove a boon to Argentina, where agriculture and mining products make up 56% of all exports. </s> |
1,490 | <s>[INST] The risk of effects from a Brazilian [/INST] devaluation pushed Argentina's prime lending rates to a peak of 19% on Sept. </s> |
1,491 | <s>[INST] 24, from 8% in early [/INST] August; the rates stand at around 12% today. </s> |
1,492 | <s>[INST] Business sentiment has hit a three-year [/INST] low and manufacturing is slowing, especially in the auto sector. </s> |
1,493 | <s>[INST] Some 90% of all Argentine auto exports [/INST] are absorbed by Brazil, and local plants in Argentina have experienced temporary shutdowns. </s> |
1,494 | <s>[INST] "It is the most sensitive sector to Brazilian [/INST] consumer spending and interest rates," says Gloria Sorensen, an economist at Banco Frances SA. </s> |
1,495 | <s>[INST] She says sales to Brazil [/INST] could remain flat in 1999, or fall by 10%. </s> |
1,496 | <s>[INST] Economic forecasts vary widely now because no one [/INST] is convinced that a Brazilian fiscal-austerity program will diminish speculation against the local currency. </s> |
1,497 | <s>[INST] Right now, "there is a clear perception [in the world] that we shouldn't [/INST] let Brazil go under," says Martin Redrado, president of Fundacion Capital, an Argentine economics firm that forecasts economic growth of 3.5% next year. </s> |
1,498 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 238 of 500 World Watch Author: Compiled by [/INST] Paul J. Deveney Publication info: Wall Street Journal , Eastern edition [New York, N.Y] 02 Nov 1998: A27. </s> |
1,499 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: Just as the acceptances were rolling in, [/INST] London put the brakes on Rupert Murdoch's plan to own one of the nation's wealthiest soccer clubs. </s> |
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