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3,200 | <s>[INST] Argentina believes it has been a near model pupil of the IMF, meeting the [/INST] first-half fiscal targets set under the terms of its $2.8bn extended fund facility, and striving, with partial success, to follow IMF prescriptions on structural reform. </s> |
3,201 | <s>[INST] The Treasury bonds will be aimed [/INST] at local private pension funds, investment funds and insurance companies. </s> |
3,202 | <s>[INST] They will be auctioned in monthly tranches of $100m-$200m starting [/INST] on October 20, and are expected to pay an annual interest rate of about 12-13 per cent. </s> |
3,203 | <s>[INST] By next March the government expects to have sold about $1bn [/INST] of the bonds, according to Miguel Kiguel, financing undersecretary, with the remainder likely to be sold before the end of 1999. </s> |
3,204 | <s>[INST] The planned issue follows long discussions with the pension funds, [/INST] known as AFJPs, which have amassed an investment portfolio of more than $9bn and have monthly inflows totalling $300m. </s> |
3,205 | <s>[INST] Argentina is seeking to raise $2bn to complete its 1998 financing programme and a [/INST] further $3.7bn to cover needs up to the end of the first quarter of next year, as insurance against international capital markets remaining shut off. </s> |
3,206 | <s>[INST] A package of loans from the World Bank, Inter-American Development [/INST] Bank and other multilateral lenders is expected to be finalised during or shortly after the IMF/ World Bank gathering. </s> |
3,207 | <s>[INST] Argentine officials say they have no plans [/INST] to draw down any of the $2.8bn IMF facility, which remains "precautionary". </s> |
3,208 | <s>[INST] Michel Camdessus, IMF managing director, said on Thursday [/INST] that "in many respects the experience of Argentina in recent years has been exemplary.. </s> |
3,209 | <s>[INST] " He singled out banking sector [/INST] reform and fiscal discipline as the economy's key strengths. </s> |
3,210 | <s>[INST] The forthcoming bond issue echoes the $2bn "Patriotic Bond" launched during the [/INST] 1995 "tequila crisis" in which Argentina's private sector showed its willingness to support the government, even during a full-blown banking crisis. </s> |
3,211 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 158 of 600 Buenos Aires confident of fending off currency shocks: Market turmoil is [/INST] hitting rank-and-file Argentines, but there is little central bank concern over the dollar peg, writes Ken Warn: Author: Warn, Ken Publication info: Financial Times [London (UK)] 22 Sep 1998: 10. </s> |
3,212 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: It may be mayhem in [/INST] the markets, but inside Argen tina's central bank an unearthly calm reigns. </s> |
3,213 | <s>[INST] Behind the bank's ornate stucco portals, officials believe they have [/INST] built powerful defences for convertibility - the currency board system that pegs the peso to the dollar. </s> |
3,214 | <s>[INST] Regardless of the outcome of events in neighbouring Brazil or whatever the [/INST] international crisis may bring Argentina in terms of lost production or rising unemployment, a currency crisis is not on the cards, they argue. </s> |
3,215 | <s>[INST] Industrial production in August rose just 0.1 per cent from the previous [/INST] month, according to preliminary figures from FIEL, an economic think-tank, as growth in gross domestic product slides from last year's 8.4 per cent. </s> |
3,216 | <s>[INST] Full text: It may be mayhem in [/INST] the markets, but inside Argen tina's central bank an unearthly calm reigns. </s> |
3,217 | <s>[INST] Behind the bank's ornate stucco portals, officials believe they have [/INST] built powerful defences for convertibility - the currency board system that pegs the peso to the dollar. </s> |
3,218 | <s>[INST] Regardless of the outcome of events in neighbouring Brazil or whatever the [/INST] international crisis may bring Argentina in terms of lost production or rising unemployment, a currency crisis is not on the cards, they argue. </s> |
3,219 | <s>[INST] Out in the street, however, Argentines [/INST] are already starting to feel the impact of the international turmoil. </s> |
3,220 | <s>[INST] Car plants are scaling back [/INST] production, while mortgage and consumer credit is drying up. </s> |
3,221 | <s>[INST] Industrial production in August rose just 0.1 per cent from the previous [/INST] month, according to preliminary figures from FIEL, an economic think-tank, as growth in gross domestic product slides from last year's 8.4 per cent. </s> |
3,222 | <s>[INST] A 1999 GDP growth forecast of 4.8 per [/INST] cent released last week by Roque Fernandez, economy minister, was widely viewed as over-optimistic. </s> |
3,223 | <s>[INST] Private sector forecasters are busily [/INST] ratcheting next year's growth forecasts downwards, some to zero. </s> |
3,224 | <s>[INST] However, these worries have not [/INST] as yet translated into fears over the dollar peg. </s> |
3,225 | <s>[INST] "People are worrying about recession, but not the [/INST] collapse of convertibility," said Freddy Thomsen, economist at ING Barings in Buenos Aires. </s> |
3,226 | <s>[INST] Central bank reserves have shown no sign of coming [/INST] under pressure, and bank deposits have risen since last October to stand last week at almost $77bn. </s> |
3,227 | <s>[INST] At the height of the Tequila crisis in [/INST] 1995, bank deposits fell $8bn, or 18 per cent, in just three months. </s> |
3,228 | <s>[INST] Since then the banking system has [/INST] been through a process of consolidation, which is continuing. </s> |
3,229 | <s>[INST] Deep-pocketed foreign banks now hold [/INST] a 44 per cent share of the market. </s> |
3,230 | <s>[INST] The 10 biggest banks in the system account for almost [/INST] 70 per cent of deposits, against just 40 per cent at the outbreak of the 1995 crisis. </s> |
3,231 | <s>[INST] With total financial system reserves of $31.5bn, plus a contingent liquidity or "repo" facility of $6.7bn [/INST] maintained with international commercial banks, Argentina has a level of international reserves in excess of the monetary base, while 30 per cent of the deposit base is covered by foreign liquidity. </s> |
3,232 | <s>[INST] A full-blown speculative attack on the peso, while feasible, would [/INST] be hard to mount technically because of the sheer shortage of available currency, according to local analysts. </s> |
3,233 | <s>[INST] "The amount of notes and coins in circulation is a mere $14bn, and [/INST] the level of intermediation is fairly primitive, thus blocking non-physical sale and delivery in a speculative attack," noted a report from brokers Interacciones. </s> |
3,234 | <s>[INST] So wedded to the dollar has Argentina become that [/INST] full "dollarisation" is widely considered a viable option in the event of strong pressure on convertibility. </s> |
3,235 | <s>[INST] Dollarisation was studied as a possible alternative to convertibility in 1991 [/INST] and is still viewed by many officials as preferable to devaluation, seen by most Argentines as the prelude to hyperinflation. </s> |
3,236 | <s>[INST] Even the most optimistic official, however, acknowledges that dollarisation [/INST] would prove difficult to effect in a combined attack on the currency and run on the banks. </s> |
3,237 | <s>[INST] Argentina's real economy also has some defences against a [/INST] Brazilian crisis, a legacy of the country's gradual abandonment of its role in world trade. </s> |
3,238 | <s>[INST] President Carlos Menem's efforts to re-open the economy to the outside world [/INST] have had only limited success, and exports account for only some 8 per cent of GDP, of which a third goes to Brazil. </s> |
3,239 | <s>[INST] Some 60 per cent of exports to [/INST] Brazil are fuel and commodities which could easily find other markets. </s> |
3,240 | <s>[INST] Thus exports equivalent to only 1 percentage [/INST] point of Argentina's GDP are exposed to price changes in Brazil, officials argue. </s> |
3,241 | <s>[INST] The car industry, however, [/INST] is already suffering from events in Brazil. </s> |
3,242 | <s>[INST] Ford of Argentina last [/INST] week joined other carmakers in slowing production. </s> |
3,243 | <s>[INST] Minimal trade exposure leaves the financial system [/INST] as the most likely transmission belt for a shock from Brazil. </s> |
3,244 | <s>[INST] Already this year share [/INST] prices have plummeted almost 48 per cent. </s> |
3,245 | <s>[INST] Companies, unable to raise cash through bond issuance, are [/INST] reining in expansion plans while, for consumers, peso and fixed interest mortgage finance has disappeared. </s> |
3,246 | <s>[INST] A Brazilian devaluation would almost inevitably [/INST] have some impact on Argentine banking deposits, forcing interest rates higher. </s> |
3,247 | <s>[INST] The government itself, denied access to the international bond markets asa result of the global [/INST] turmoil, is seeking to finalise a $6bn loan package, mainly from multinational lenders, to cover financing needs through to the end of the first quarter of next year. </s> |
3,248 | <s>[INST] It has yet to raise $2bn to bridge [/INST] this year's funding gap, while next year's needs are put at about $14bn. </s> |
3,249 | <s>[INST] It all looks distressingly familiar to Argentines, who saw the economy [/INST] contract 4.6 per cent in 1995 in the wake of the Tequila crisis, before a strong rebound in 1996. </s> |
3,250 | <s>[INST] With no quick end to the global turmoil in [/INST] sight, lower growth, rising job-lessness, downward pressure on wages and slowing tax revenues appear to lie ahead. </s> |
3,251 | <s>[INST] It is not the best of platforms [/INST] for the ruling Peronist party to fight next year's presidential elections. </s> |
3,252 | <s>[INST] Its only consolation is that this scenario is equally [/INST] problematic for the opposition Alliance, which has backed the main outlines of the Menem economic programme. </s> |
3,253 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 180 of 600 Identity crisis for Argentina [/INST] EMERGING MARKET FOCUS: Author: Warn, Ken Publication info: Financial Times [London (UK)] 16 Sep 1998: 56. </s> |
3,254 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: Argentina's embattled stock market has rallied strongly with gains [/INST] in the last few days helping to wipe out the 13 per cent decline on "Black Thursday" last week. </s> |
3,255 | <s>[INST] However, as trading opened yesterday the Merval leading share index [/INST] was still registering a fall of more than 50 per cent from the beginning of the year. </s> |
3,256 | <s>[INST] Shares last plumbed such levels in early 1995, when [/INST] crisis was battering Argentina's financial system and straining its currency's one-for-one link with the dollar. </s> |
3,257 | <s>[INST] Traders are anxiously wondering where [/INST] in the world the next blow will come from. </s> |
3,258 | <s>[INST] Events in Asia and Russia, the political fall-out [/INST] from the Clinton crisis and last week's devaluation scare in Brazil have all weighed heavily. </s> |
3,259 | <s>[INST] Full text: Argentina's embattled stock market has rallied strongly with gains [/INST] in the last few days helping to wipe out the 13 per cent decline on "Black Thursday" last week. </s> |
3,260 | <s>[INST] However, as trading opened yesterday the Merval leading share index [/INST] was still registering a fall of more than 50 per cent from the beginning of the year. </s> |
3,261 | <s>[INST] Shares last plumbed such levels in early 1995, when [/INST] crisis was battering Argentina's financial system and straining its currency's one-for-one link with the dollar. </s> |
3,262 | <s>[INST] Traders are anxiously wondering where [/INST] in the world the next blow will come from. </s> |
3,263 | <s>[INST] Events in Asia and Russia, the political fall-out [/INST] from the Clinton crisis and last week's devaluation scare in Brazil have all weighed heavily. </s> |
3,264 | <s>[INST] Within this complex international context, the Merval and broader market have [/INST] struggled to define a trajectory of their own, and trading continues to take its cue from Wall St and Sao Paulo. </s> |
3,265 | <s>[INST] However, the departure of foreign investors from Argentina [/INST] is steadily changing the dynamics of the stock market, said Christopher Ecclestone of brokers Interacciones. </s> |
3,266 | <s>[INST] "The buyers are locals, while the [/INST] sellers are almost all foreigners, plus some distressed locals". </s> |
3,267 | <s>[INST] Local private pension funds and individual investors [/INST] were being tempted in by low prices and attractive yields, he said. </s> |
3,268 | <s>[INST] Trading on Monday also saw [/INST] stock shortages, helping to push up prices. </s> |
3,269 | <s>[INST] Both domestically and internationally there [/INST] have been some positive developments for investors. </s> |
3,270 | <s>[INST] Strong words of support for Latin America have come [/INST] from Michel Camdessus, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, and from the US administration. </s> |
3,271 | <s>[INST] The tight 1999 budget presented to Congress on Monday by Roque [/INST] Fernandez, the economy minister, was deemed worthy and uncontroversial by markets despite containing economic projections widely considered as highly optimistic. </s> |
3,272 | <s>[INST] In addition, the ruling Peronist party has had some success in pushing [/INST] legislation through Congress, easing fears that President Carlos Menem would be a lame duck leader in the run-up to next year's presidential elections. </s> |
3,273 | <s>[INST] Argentine officials have also been finalising a package of loans up to $6bn from multilateral and commercial [/INST] lenders to stave off liquidity problems to the end of the first quarter of next year in the event of the government being unable to raise fresh cash in the bond markets. </s> |
3,274 | <s>[INST] Officials insist this financing is intended only for [/INST] use in the worst-case scenario, revolving around a possible devaluation or default in Brazil. </s> |
3,275 | <s>[INST] "International support for Brazil is the [/INST] key to stabilise the situation," said one local analyst. </s> |
3,276 | <s>[INST] "Looking beyond that, even assuming an orderly end to international troubles, I [/INST] see problems of competitiveness for Argentine companies and sharp economic slowdown, so people very much need to be looking at defensive stocks". </s> |
3,277 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 183 of 600 Argentina seeks $6bn [/INST] loan deal Author: Warn, Ken Publication info: Financial Times [London (UK)] 15 Sep 1998: 07. </s> |
3,278 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: Argentina is seeking to finalise a $5.5bn-$6bn (£3.3bn-£3.6bn) loan [/INST] package from multilateral lending institutions and local private sector banks to help shield the country from the global economic turmoil. </s> |
3,279 | <s>[INST] Details of the package, which is expected to include financing [/INST] from the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank, will be announced before the end of this month. </s> |
3,280 | <s>[INST] The loans would be used to tide Argentina over until the end [/INST] of the first quarter of 1999 should it prove unable to borrow in the debt markets because of continuing financial instability. </s> |
3,281 | <s>[INST] Full text: Argentina is seeking to finalise a $5.5bn-$6bn (£3.3bn-£3.6bn) loan [/INST] package from multilateral lending institutions and local private sector banks to help shield the country from the global economic turmoil. </s> |
3,282 | <s>[INST] Details of the package, which is expected to include financing [/INST] from the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank, will be announced before the end of this month. </s> |
3,283 | <s>[INST] The loans would be used to tide Argentina over until the end [/INST] of the first quarter of 1999 should it prove unable to borrow in the debt markets because of continuing financial instability. </s> |
3,284 | <s>[INST] The funding would be separate from Argentina's existing $2.8bn [/INST] extended fund facility with the International Monetary Fund, which the government has no plans to draw down. </s> |
3,285 | <s>[INST] "This should be a very strong signal to the markets that we [/INST] are well advanced in meeting our financing requirements and help remove any concerns over our liquidity," said Pablo Guidotti, deputy economy minister. </s> |
3,286 | <s>[INST] Officials stressed Argentina still hoped to meet its financing [/INST] needs through the markets, and the stand-by funding was intended to be "complementary" to commercial borrowing. </s> |
3,287 | <s>[INST] A government campaign to persuade foreign investors that the country's economic [/INST] fundamentals remain strong has so far failed to lift the stock market, which has tumbled in step with neighbouring Brazil. </s> |
3,288 | <s>[INST] However, some relief came yesterday with the [/INST] Merval leading share index up 1.7 per cent in early trading to 327.6. </s> |
3,289 | <s>[INST] In Sao Paulo, Brazil's Bovespa index of [/INST] the 57 most traded shares was up 2.3 per cent by mid-day. </s> |
3,290 | <s>[INST] Argentina remains dependent on inflows of foreign capital to service its $100bn-plus [/INST] external debt, and bridge its fiscal deficit, which it aims to cut to around 1 per cent of GDP this year. </s> |
3,291 | <s>[INST] The country has yet to raise $2bn to [/INST] complete its 1998 borrowing programme, while next year's needs are estimated at $14bn. </s> |
3,292 | <s>[INST] News of the negotiations came as Roque Fernandez, the economy minister, [/INST] prepared to present an austere 1999 budget to Congress in a further attempt to "differentiate" Argentina from other emerging markets. </s> |
3,293 | <s>[INST] Bank deposits have so far shown no signs of slipping, [/INST] signalling continuing confidence in "convertibility", the currency board system that pegs Argentina's peso at par to the dollar. </s> |
3,294 | <s>[INST] Deposits yesterday edged up to $76.9bn, [/INST] while central bank foreign exchange reserves stood at $24.5bn. </s> |
3,295 | <s>[INST] The total reserves of the financial system, [/INST] including a "repo" facility maintained with international commercial banks, stood at $31.5bn. </s> |
3,296 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 191 of 600 [/INST] Continent in crisis: Latin America may need a bail-out. </s> |
3,297 | <s>[INST] Stephen Fidler, Jonathan Wheatley and Ken Warn report: Author: [/INST] Fidler, Stephen; Warn, Ken; Wheatley, Jonathan Publication info: Financial Times [London (UK)] 12 Sep 1998: 12. </s> |
3,298 | <s>[INST] The Asian crisis, having swept [/INST] through Russia, is now engulfing the continent. </s> |
3,299 | <s>[INST] Its biggest economy, Brazil, is fighting [/INST] to avoid a currency collapse or a debt moratorium. </s> |
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