patrickbdevaney/mia9 · Datasets at Hugging Face

text stringlengths 0 6.44k
0.5
0
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
Seasonally Filtered Monthly MSL (m)
2080
Illustration courtesy of Todd L. Walton, Jr., Cambridge University Press,
page 1835, Figure 3, ScienceDirect, Ocean Engineering 34,
© 2007 Elsevier Ltd.




IV. “Drivers” of Climate Change
and Their Effects on Florida’s
Ocean and Coastal Resources
E F F ECT : Changes in Estuaries, Tidal Wetlands, and Tidal Rivers
Although Florida tide ranges are relatively small, tidal effects extend far inland because much of the state is so
low and flat. Because sea level has been relatively constant for a long time, tidal wetlands such as mangrove
forests and salt marshes have been able to grow into expansive habitats for estuarine and marine life. How
ever, these tidal wetlands are sensitive to the rate of sea level rise and can perish if sea level rise exceeds their
capacity to adapt. With rising sea levels, sandbars and shoals, estuarine beaches, salt flats, and coastal forests
will be altered, and changes in freshwater inflow from tidal rivers will affect salinity regimes in estuaries and pat
terns of animal use. Major redistributions of mainland and barrier island sediments may have compensatory
or larger benefits for wetland, seagrass, or fish and wildlife communities, but these processes cannot be fore
cast with existing models.
22
IV
W H A T W E K N O W :
• Estuarine circulation, salinity, and faunal use patterns are changing (42).
• Many tidal wetlands are keeping pace with
sealevel changes (83). Some are accreting
vertically, migrating upslope, or both (84, 85,
86). The rate of sealevel rise will be critical for
tidal wetlands.
• Wetlands elsewhere are perishing as estuarine
and coastal forests and swamps are retreating
and being replaced by marsh vegetation (84,
85, 86).
• Open estuarine waters, some brackish marshes,
and mangroves in south Florida estuaries are expanding (87, 88).
• Even at constant rates of sealevel rise, some
tidal wetlands will eventually “pinch out” where
their upslope migration is prevented by upland
defenses such as seawalls (83, 89).
W H A T I S P R O B A B L E :
• Increased air temperatures and reductions in freeze
events will result in mangrove habitat moving northward, replacing salt marsh in some areas (90, 91).
• Upland plant communities along tidal rivers and estuaries will be replaced by lowlying, floodprone
lands. Increased saline flooding will strip upland
soils of their organic content (84, 92).
• Lowdiversity wetlands will replace highdiversity wetlands in the tidal freshwater reaches of coastal rivers
(93).
• Major spatial shifts in wetland communities, including invasions of exotic species, will occur (94).
• More lowland coastal forests will be lost during the
next one to three centuries as tidal wetlands expand
across lowlying coastal areas (95).
• Most tidal wetlands in areas with low freshwater
and sediment supplies will “drown” where sealevel
rise outpaces their ability to accrete vertically (96).
W H A T I S P O S S I B L E :
• More than half of the salt marsh, shoals, and mudflats critical to birds and fishes foraging in Florida estuaries could be lost during the 21st century (87).
• Recreational and commercial fish species that depend on shallow water, or intertidal and subtidal
plant communities, will be at risk (87).
• The loss of tidal wetlands will result in dangerous
losses of the coastal systems that buffer storm impacts (97).


IV. “Drivers” of Climate Change
and Their Effects on Florida’s
Ocean and Coastal Resources
E F F ECT : Changes in Beaches, Barrier Islands, and Inlets
Beaches and inlets are regional systems of sediment deposition, erosion, and transport. These processes are
profoundly affected by changes in sea level and rates of sea level change, as well as storm events. Scientists
and resource managers will be challenged to separate the effects of sea level changes from the effects of storms
and the alterations resulting from beach and inlet management actions.
23
IV
W H A T W E K N O W :
• Shoreline retreat due to erosion and overwash
is occurring now (98).
• There is an increase in the formation of barrier
island inlets and in island dissection events, in
which islands are eroded by wind and waves
(98, 99).
W H A T I S P R O B A B L E :
• Continued sealevel rise will exacerbate erosion
(100).
• Barrier islands will continue to erode, migrate landward, and be reduced in elevation (100).
• Coastal transportation infrastructure will be affected.
W H A T I S P O S S I B L E :
• Increased overwash, breaching of coastal roads,
and dissection of barrier islands will occur (98).
• Low barrier islands will vanish, exposing marshes
and estuaries to opencoast conditions (100).

IV. “Drivers” of Climate Change
and Their Effects on Florida’s
Ocean and Coastal Resources
E F F ECT : Reduced Coastal Water Supplies
Sea levels in Florida are expected to eventually rise to the degree that saltwater intrusion will threaten the

0.5

0

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Seasonally Filtered Monthly MSL (m)

2080

Illustration courtesy of Todd L. Walton, Jr., Cambridge University Press,

page 1835, Figure 3, ScienceDirect, Ocean Engineering 34,

IV. “Drivers” of Climate Change

and Their Effects on Florida’s

Ocean and Coastal Resources

E F F ECT : Changes in Estuaries, Tidal Wetlands, and Tidal Rivers

Although Florida tide ranges are relatively small, tidal effects extend far inland because much of the state is so

low and flat. Because sea level has been relatively constant for a long time, tidal wetlands such as mangrove

forests and salt marshes have been able to grow into expansive habitats for estuarine and marine life. How

ever, these tidal wetlands are sensitive to the rate of sea level rise and can perish if sea level rise exceeds their

capacity to adapt. With rising sea levels, sandbars and shoals, estuarine beaches, salt flats, and coastal forests

will be altered, and changes in freshwater inflow from tidal rivers will affect salinity regimes in estuaries and pat

terns of animal use. Major redistributions of mainland and barrier island sediments may have compensatory

or larger benefits for wetland, seagrass, or fish and wildlife communities, but these processes cannot be fore

cast with existing models.

22

IV

W H A T W E K N O W :

• Estuarine circulation, salinity, and faunal use patterns are changing (42).

• Many tidal wetlands are keeping pace with

sealevel changes (83). Some are accreting

vertically, migrating upslope, or both (84, 85,

86). The rate of sealevel rise will be critical for

tidal wetlands.

• Wetlands elsewhere are perishing as estuarine

and coastal forests and swamps are retreating

and being replaced by marsh vegetation (84,

85, 86).

• Open estuarine waters, some brackish marshes,

and mangroves in south Florida estuaries are expanding (87, 88).

• Even at constant rates of sealevel rise, some

tidal wetlands will eventually “pinch out” where

their upslope migration is prevented by upland

defenses such as seawalls (83, 89).

W H A T I S P R O B A B L E :

• Increased air temperatures and reductions in freeze

events will result in mangrove habitat moving northward, replacing salt marsh in some areas (90, 91).

• Upland plant communities along tidal rivers and estuaries will be replaced by lowlying, floodprone

lands. Increased saline flooding will strip upland

soils of their organic content (84, 92).

• Lowdiversity wetlands will replace highdiversity wetlands in the tidal freshwater reaches of coastal rivers

(93).

• Major spatial shifts in wetland communities, including invasions of exotic species, will occur (94).

• More lowland coastal forests will be lost during the

next one to three centuries as tidal wetlands expand

across lowlying coastal areas (95).

• Most tidal wetlands in areas with low freshwater

and sediment supplies will “drown” where sealevel

rise outpaces their ability to accrete vertically (96).

W H A T I S P O S S I B L E :

• More than half of the salt marsh, shoals, and mudflats critical to birds and fishes foraging in Florida estuaries could be lost during the 21st century (87).

• Recreational and commercial fish species that depend on shallow water, or intertidal and subtidal

plant communities, will be at risk (87).

• The loss of tidal wetlands will result in dangerous

losses of the coastal systems that buffer storm impacts (97).

IV. “Drivers” of Climate Change

and Their Effects on Florida’s

Ocean and Coastal Resources

E F F ECT : Changes in Beaches, Barrier Islands, and Inlets

Beaches and inlets are regional systems of sediment deposition, erosion, and transport. These processes are

profoundly affected by changes in sea level and rates of sea level change, as well as storm events. Scientists

and resource managers will be challenged to separate the effects of sea level changes from the effects of storms

and the alterations resulting from beach and inlet management actions.

23

IV

W H A T W E K N O W :

• Shoreline retreat due to erosion and overwash

is occurring now (98).

• There is an increase in the formation of barrier

island inlets and in island dissection events, in

which islands are eroded by wind and waves

(98, 99).

W H A T I S P R O B A B L E :

• Continued sealevel rise will exacerbate erosion

(100).

• Barrier islands will continue to erode, migrate landward, and be reduced in elevation (100).

• Coastal transportation infrastructure will be affected.

W H A T I S P O S S I B L E :

• Increased overwash, breaching of coastal roads,

and dissection of barrier islands will occur (98).

• Low barrier islands will vanish, exposing marshes

and estuaries to opencoast conditions (100).

IV. “Drivers” of Climate Change

and Their Effects on Florida’s

Ocean and Coastal Resources

E F F ECT : Reduced Coastal Water Supplies

Sea levels in Florida are expected to eventually rise to the degree that saltwater intrusion will threaten the