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to making the region’s infrastructure more resilient to climate change.
POPULATION TRENDS
Continued Growth
South Florida had a population of 4.7 million in 2020. According to the
Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research, the region is
projected to add about 717,000 new residents in the tri-county area
through 2045 to reach an estimated population of 5.4 million. The
regional economy and number of residents who call South Florida
home has consistently increased over time. Between 2010 and 2020 the
population of Broward County grew by 11.7% and Miami-Dade
County by 8%, outpacing the growth of the nation.
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Meanwhile, Monroe County’s population remained relatively
unchanged. Despite significant population growth from 2010 – 2020,
the most recent Census data update for the period of July 2020 – July
2021 shows Resident Live Births declined for Miami-Dade and
Broward counties.
The Resident Live Births Rate (RLBR) per 1,000 total population has
declined from a high of 13.5 in Broward in 2001 to 10.2 in 2020.
Likewise, the Miami-Dade RLBR has declined from 14.2 in 2001 to 9.7
in 2020. Monroe County had a RLBR 8.9 in 2001. Monroe County’s
RLBR peaked to 10.8 in 2007 and then declined to 8.9 in 2020; the same
rate as in 200116. This compares to a Florida RLBR of 12.6 in 2001 and
9.7 in 2020 with the U.S. RLBR dropping from 15.83 in 2001 to 11.71 in
2020.
Even as Florida’s population increased from April 2020 to July 2021,
the population of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Monroe counties
decreased during the same time period.
Population Estimates
Miami-Dade Broward Monroe Florida
July 1, 2021 2,662,777 1,930,983 82,170 21,781,128
April 1, 2020 2,701,767 1,944,375 82,874 21,538,187
April 1, 2010 2,496,435 1,748,066 73,090 18,801,310
Source: U.S. Census Quick Facts
This recent population decline, masked partially by international
migration, is attributable to lower birth rates and a trend of outmigration from Miami-Dade and Broward counties. It appears that this
out-migration may be in response to soaring housing and cost of living
costs. According to annual reports from United Van Lines, U-Haul,
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Rate Per 1,000 Total Population
Data Years
Resident Live Births, Rate Per 1,000 Total
Population, Single Year (2001-2020)
Broward Birth Rate Miami-Dade Birth Rate
Monroe Birth Rate Florida Birth Rate
U.S. Birth Rate
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and Allied Van Lines, Florida, with its beaches and natural
environment, no income tax, and cultural and recreational
opportunities is consistently once again in the top 5 of inbound states
with 39.29% of respondents choosing Florida as a top state to retire in
2020.17 For those who can work remotely, the broad adoption of remote
work policies has made it possible to live in one state and work in
another.
The major van lines report that the pandemic continues to influence
American’s decisions to move as they relocate to lower-density
communities and to be closer to family. Florida is particularly attractive
to high-income earners seeking to exit high cost, high tax states who
find Florida relatively affordable despite rising housing and living
prices. Florida was a top inbound state in 2021 although it appears that
growth is concentrating outside of South Florida. South Florida is a
popular destination for residents from California and New York and is
expected to benefit from high-earning professionals relocating from
high-cost, higher-density cities in the Northeast and West Coast who
still seek to enjoy an urban lifestyle.
Age & Diversity
The age distribution of the population in Broward, Miami-Dade, and
Monroe shows significant increases in the 45 – 64 year-old age cohort
over the past 30 years. All the counties also show a decline in the
percent of the population in the 18 – 44 year-old category. Miami-Dade
and Broward counties also show decreases in the percent of the
population in the 0 – 17 cohort as well as increases in the percent of the
population in the 65 plus cohort signaling a potential workforce
shortage in the future. The population age trends of Miami-Dade and
Monroe counties mirrors that of the state of Florida. Only Broward
County shows an increase in the percent of the population in the 0 – 17