patrickbdevaney/mia9 · Datasets at Hugging Face

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the winter months. The last seven years (2015–2021) revealed the highest number of events
and durations among all study years, with the exception of 2018, when very few (4) and
short (<40) MHWs that were observed in the South Florida region.
Water 2022, 14, 3840 11 of 28 Water 2022, 14, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 31
Figure 5. Horizontal distribution of (a) Mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST; °C), (b) 99th Percentile
SST (°C), (c) Sen’s Slope (°C/year) and (d) pvalue of the MK test of statistically significant trend, derived from the mean annual values (40 years; red and black contour lines indicate the 99% and 95%
thresholds, respectively), derived from the daily values of the 1982–2021 period over the South Florida shelf areas (less than 300 m depth). The black solid lines at the periphery of all plots indicate the
300 m isobath around South Florida. The main coastal and urban sites are also marked, similar to
Figure 1 and abbreviated here (clockwise from top right, WPM: West Palm Beach; FL: Fort Lauderdale; MB: Miami Beach; BB: Biscayne Bay; FC: Florida City; KL: Key Largo; M: Marathon; KW: Key
West; DT: Dry Tortugas; N: Naples; FM: Fort Myers; T: Tampa).
3.4. Formation of Marine Heat Waves
3.4.1. Spatial Variability and General Trends
The formation of MHWs was computed and analyzed for the entire study region,
and for the whole time period. Both the annual number of MHW events and their total
annual durations (days), which were averaged over the South Florida domain, revealed
an increasing trend during the 40-year period and are statistically significant (pvalue < 0.01;
Figure 6a). The increase of the total annual MHW days was 7.4 days/decade, and the respective increase of the MHW events was 0.75 events/decade. Three large peaks were
computed in 2015, 2019, and 2020, respectively, with more than 8 MHWs lasting around
70 to 110 days in total, constituting the high peaks of the mean SST values presented in
Figure 3a. The prolonged period of low SST levels reported during the 2004–2013 decade
(Figure 3a) agrees with the low number of MHWs events (<4) and days (<40) (Figure 6a).
However, the period with the lowest SST levels in 2010 does not coincide with the lowest
MHW events since the reduced SST were mainly associated with the very cold waters of
the winter months. The last seven years (2015–2021) revealed the highest number of events
and durations among all study years, with the exception of 2018, when very few (4) and
short (<40) MHWs that were observed in the South Florida region.
Figure 5. Horizontal distribution of (a) Mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST; ◦C), (b) 99th Percentile
SST (◦C), (c) Sen’s Slope (◦C/year) and (d) pvalue of the MK test of statistically significant trend,
derived from the mean annual values (40 years; red and black contour lines indicate the 99% and
95% thresholds, respectively), derived from the daily values of the 1982–2021 period over the South
Florida shelf areas (less than 300 m depth). The black solid lines at the periphery of all plots indicate
the 300 m isobath around South Florida. The main coastal and urban sites are also marked, similar to
Figure 1 and abbreviated here (clockwise from top right, WPM: West Palm Beach; FL: Fort Lauderdale;
MB: Miami Beach; BB: Biscayne Bay; FC: Florida City; KL: Key Largo; M: Marathon; KW: Key West;
DT: Dry Tortugas; N: Naples; FM: Fort Myers; T: Tampa).
We followed the methodology introduced by Hobday et al. [2] to base categories of
MHWs (see Section 2.5). The vast majority of the events detected over the South Florida
domain are characterized as moderate (Figure 6b), revealing an almost identical interannual
distribution of number and duration as all MHWs together (Figure 6a). The Sen’s Slopes of
the number and duration are 0.73 events/decade and 6.7 days/decade, respectively; both
are statistically significant. The Category 2 MHWs (strong events; Figure 6c) also revealed
statistically significant increasing trends, with lower though gradients (0.01 events/decade
and 0.5 days/decade) than Category 1 events. Two peaks of strong MHWs were observed
in 2003 and 2020, when the highest SST levels were measured (Figure 3a). A small number
of strong events, but with extended duration, were also observed in 2017. On the contrary,
in 1984, MHWs were not formed at all over the entire region. Severe events (Category
3) occurred only after 2003, but with limited occurrence, while MHWs were observed
every year only during the last seven years (after 2015), resulting in very weak interannual
trends which are not statistically significant over the 40-year study period. However,
severe MHWs occurred in the summer of 2010, in agreement with the high 99th percentiles
(Figure 3b), although very low minimum SST values occurred during that winter (Figure 3c)
in agreement with the large SST variance of that year (Figure 3d).
Water Water 2022 2022, ,1414, 3840 , x FOR PEER REVIEW 1312 of 28 of 31
Figure 6. (a) Interannual evolution of the mean annual number of all Marine Heat Waves (MHWs;
red line) and the mean annual duration (days; black line) derived from all satellite daily data at each
satellite grid point of the study area for the 1982–2021 period; the insert panel presents the categorization schematic for MHWs showing the observed temperature timeseries (dashed line), the longterm regional climatology (bold line), and the 90th percentile climatology (thin line). Multiples of
the 90th percentile difference (2× twice, 3× three times) from the mean climatology value define each
of the Categories 1–3, with corresponding descriptors from moderate to severe [2]. The individual
evolution of the mean annual number and duration of MHWs for Category 1, 2, and 3 are presented
in (b–d), respectively. The zero MHW cases were not included in the calculations. The linear trend
(dashed line), the Sen’s Slope, and the respective test of statistically significant trend (pvalue) for each
case are presented. The asterisk (*) indicates that the hypothesis that the trend is statistically significant is true (99% MK trend test: pvalue < 0.01).
We followed the methodology introduced by Hobday et al. [2] to base categories of
MHWs (see Section 2.5). The vast majority of the events detected over the South Florida
domain are characterized as moderate (Figure 6b), revealing an almost identical interannual distribution of number and duration as all MHWs together (Figure 6a). The Sen’s
Slopes of the number and duration are 0.73 events/decade and 6.7 days/decade, respectively; both are statistically significant. The Category 2 MHWs (strong events; Figure 6c)
also revealed statistically significant increasing trends, with lower though gradients (0.01
events/decade and 0.5 days/decade) than Category 1 events. Two peaks of strong MHWs
were observed in 2003 and 2020, when the highest SST levels were measured (Figure 3a).
A small number of strong events, but with extended duration, were also observed in 2017.
On the contrary, in 1984, MHWs were not formed at all over the entire region. Severe
events (Category 3) occurred only after 2003, but with limited occurrence, while MHWs
were observed every year only during the last seven years (after 2015), resulting in very
weak interannual trends which are not statistically significant over the 40-year study period. However, severe MHWs occurred in the summer of 2010, in agreement with the high
99th percentiles (Figure 3b), although very low minimum SST values occurred during that
winter (Figure 3c) in agreement with the large SST variance of that year (Figure 3d).
The spatial distribution of the mean annual and total number of MHWs over the entire study domain is presented in Figure 7. The highest mean annual number of events
was computed over the southern WFS, along the northern coasts of the Florida Keys and
inside the Florida Bay showing approximately 3 events per/year (Figure 7a) and more
than 110 events during the 40-year period (Figure 7c). Although fewer events usually
formed over the northern parts of the WFS (2–2.5 events/year and less than 100 in total for
40 years), their duration was longer and therefore the total annual duration over the shelf
was homogenously distributed between 24 to 30 days/year (Figure 7b) and more than 1000
days over the 1982–2021 period (Figure 7d). The Straits of Florida, where the warmer
Figure 6. (a) Interannual evolution of the mean annual number of all Marine Heat Waves (MHWs;
red line) and the mean annual duration (days; black line) derived from all satellite daily data at
each satellite grid point of the study area for the 1982–2021 period; the insert panel presents the
categorization schematic for MHWs showing the observed temperature timeseries (dashed line), the
long-term regional climatology (bold line), and the 90th percentile climatology (thin line). Multiples of
the 90th percentile difference (2× twice, 3× three times) from the mean climatology value define each
of the Categories 1–3, with corresponding descriptors from moderate to severe [2]. The individual
evolution of the mean annual number and duration of MHWs for Category 1, 2, and 3 are presented
in (b–d), respectively. The zero MHW cases were not included in the calculations. The linear trend
(dashed line), the Sen’s Slope, and the respective test of statistically significant trend (pvalue) for
each case are presented. The asterisk (*) indicates that the hypothesis that the trend is statistically
significant is true (99% MK trend test: pvalue < 0.01).
The spatial distribution of the mean annual and total number of MHWs over the
entire study domain is presented in Figure 7. The highest mean annual number of events
was computed over the southern WFS, along the northern coasts of the Florida Keys and
inside the Florida Bay showing approximately 3 events per/year (Figure 7a) and more

the winter months. The last seven years (2015–2021) revealed the highest number of events

and durations among all study years, with the exception of 2018, when very few (4) and

short (<40) MHWs that were observed in the South Florida region.

Water 2022, 14, 3840 11 of 28 Water 2022, 14, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 31

Figure 5. Horizontal distribution of (a) Mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST; °C), (b) 99th Percentile

SST (°C), (c) Sen’s Slope (°C/year) and (d) pvalue of the MK test of statistically significant trend, derived from the mean annual values (40 years; red and black contour lines indicate the 99% and 95%

thresholds, respectively), derived from the daily values of the 1982–2021 period over the South Florida shelf areas (less than 300 m depth). The black solid lines at the periphery of all plots indicate the

300 m isobath around South Florida. The main coastal and urban sites are also marked, similar to

Figure 1 and abbreviated here (clockwise from top right, WPM: West Palm Beach; FL: Fort Lauderdale; MB: Miami Beach; BB: Biscayne Bay; FC: Florida City; KL: Key Largo; M: Marathon; KW: Key

West; DT: Dry Tortugas; N: Naples; FM: Fort Myers; T: Tampa).

3.4. Formation of Marine Heat Waves

3.4.1. Spatial Variability and General Trends

The formation of MHWs was computed and analyzed for the entire study region,

and for the whole time period. Both the annual number of MHW events and their total

annual durations (days), which were averaged over the South Florida domain, revealed

an increasing trend during the 40-year period and are statistically significant (pvalue < 0.01;

Figure 6a). The increase of the total annual MHW days was 7.4 days/decade, and the respective increase of the MHW events was 0.75 events/decade. Three large peaks were

computed in 2015, 2019, and 2020, respectively, with more than 8 MHWs lasting around

70 to 110 days in total, constituting the high peaks of the mean SST values presented in

Figure 3a. The prolonged period of low SST levels reported during the 2004–2013 decade

(Figure 3a) agrees with the low number of MHWs events (<4) and days (<40) (Figure 6a).

However, the period with the lowest SST levels in 2010 does not coincide with the lowest

MHW events since the reduced SST were mainly associated with the very cold waters of

the winter months. The last seven years (2015–2021) revealed the highest number of events

and durations among all study years, with the exception of 2018, when very few (4) and

short (<40) MHWs that were observed in the South Florida region.

Figure 5. Horizontal distribution of (a) Mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST; ◦C), (b) 99th Percentile

SST (◦C), (c) Sen’s Slope (◦C/year) and (d) pvalue of the MK test of statistically significant trend,

derived from the mean annual values (40 years; red and black contour lines indicate the 99% and

95% thresholds, respectively), derived from the daily values of the 1982–2021 period over the South

Florida shelf areas (less than 300 m depth). The black solid lines at the periphery of all plots indicate

the 300 m isobath around South Florida. The main coastal and urban sites are also marked, similar to

Figure 1 and abbreviated here (clockwise from top right, WPM: West Palm Beach; FL: Fort Lauderdale;

MB: Miami Beach; BB: Biscayne Bay; FC: Florida City; KL: Key Largo; M: Marathon; KW: Key West;

DT: Dry Tortugas; N: Naples; FM: Fort Myers; T: Tampa).

We followed the methodology introduced by Hobday et al. [2] to base categories of

MHWs (see Section 2.5). The vast majority of the events detected over the South Florida

domain are characterized as moderate (Figure 6b), revealing an almost identical interannual

distribution of number and duration as all MHWs together (Figure 6a). The Sen’s Slopes of

the number and duration are 0.73 events/decade and 6.7 days/decade, respectively; both

are statistically significant. The Category 2 MHWs (strong events; Figure 6c) also revealed

statistically significant increasing trends, with lower though gradients (0.01 events/decade

and 0.5 days/decade) than Category 1 events. Two peaks of strong MHWs were observed

in 2003 and 2020, when the highest SST levels were measured (Figure 3a). A small number

of strong events, but with extended duration, were also observed in 2017. On the contrary,

in 1984, MHWs were not formed at all over the entire region. Severe events (Category

3) occurred only after 2003, but with limited occurrence, while MHWs were observed

every year only during the last seven years (after 2015), resulting in very weak interannual

trends which are not statistically significant over the 40-year study period. However,

severe MHWs occurred in the summer of 2010, in agreement with the high 99th percentiles

(Figure 3b), although very low minimum SST values occurred during that winter (Figure 3c)

in agreement with the large SST variance of that year (Figure 3d).

Water Water 2022 2022, ,1414, 3840 , x FOR PEER REVIEW 1312 of 28 of 31

Figure 6. (a) Interannual evolution of the mean annual number of all Marine Heat Waves (MHWs;

red line) and the mean annual duration (days; black line) derived from all satellite daily data at each

satellite grid point of the study area for the 1982–2021 period; the insert panel presents the categorization schematic for MHWs showing the observed temperature timeseries (dashed line), the longterm regional climatology (bold line), and the 90th percentile climatology (thin line). Multiples of

the 90th percentile difference (2× twice, 3× three times) from the mean climatology value define each

of the Categories 1–3, with corresponding descriptors from moderate to severe [2]. The individual

evolution of the mean annual number and duration of MHWs for Category 1, 2, and 3 are presented

in (b–d), respectively. The zero MHW cases were not included in the calculations. The linear trend

(dashed line), the Sen’s Slope, and the respective test of statistically significant trend (pvalue) for each

case are presented. The asterisk (*) indicates that the hypothesis that the trend is statistically significant is true (99% MK trend test: pvalue < 0.01).

We followed the methodology introduced by Hobday et al. [2] to base categories of

MHWs (see Section 2.5). The vast majority of the events detected over the South Florida

domain are characterized as moderate (Figure 6b), revealing an almost identical interannual distribution of number and duration as all MHWs together (Figure 6a). The Sen’s

Slopes of the number and duration are 0.73 events/decade and 6.7 days/decade, respectively; both are statistically significant. The Category 2 MHWs (strong events; Figure 6c)

also revealed statistically significant increasing trends, with lower though gradients (0.01

events/decade and 0.5 days/decade) than Category 1 events. Two peaks of strong MHWs

were observed in 2003 and 2020, when the highest SST levels were measured (Figure 3a).

A small number of strong events, but with extended duration, were also observed in 2017.

On the contrary, in 1984, MHWs were not formed at all over the entire region. Severe

events (Category 3) occurred only after 2003, but with limited occurrence, while MHWs

were observed every year only during the last seven years (after 2015), resulting in very

weak interannual trends which are not statistically significant over the 40-year study period. However, severe MHWs occurred in the summer of 2010, in agreement with the high

99th percentiles (Figure 3b), although very low minimum SST values occurred during that

winter (Figure 3c) in agreement with the large SST variance of that year (Figure 3d).

The spatial distribution of the mean annual and total number of MHWs over the entire study domain is presented in Figure 7. The highest mean annual number of events

was computed over the southern WFS, along the northern coasts of the Florida Keys and

inside the Florida Bay showing approximately 3 events per/year (Figure 7a) and more

than 110 events during the 40-year period (Figure 7c). Although fewer events usually

formed over the northern parts of the WFS (2–2.5 events/year and less than 100 in total for

40 years), their duration was longer and therefore the total annual duration over the shelf

was homogenously distributed between 24 to 30 days/year (Figure 7b) and more than 1000

days over the 1982–2021 period (Figure 7d). The Straits of Florida, where the warmer

Figure 6. (a) Interannual evolution of the mean annual number of all Marine Heat Waves (MHWs;

red line) and the mean annual duration (days; black line) derived from all satellite daily data at

each satellite grid point of the study area for the 1982–2021 period; the insert panel presents the

categorization schematic for MHWs showing the observed temperature timeseries (dashed line), the

long-term regional climatology (bold line), and the 90th percentile climatology (thin line). Multiples of

the 90th percentile difference (2× twice, 3× three times) from the mean climatology value define each

of the Categories 1–3, with corresponding descriptors from moderate to severe [2]. The individual

evolution of the mean annual number and duration of MHWs for Category 1, 2, and 3 are presented

in (b–d), respectively. The zero MHW cases were not included in the calculations. The linear trend

(dashed line), the Sen’s Slope, and the respective test of statistically significant trend (pvalue) for

each case are presented. The asterisk (*) indicates that the hypothesis that the trend is statistically

significant is true (99% MK trend test: pvalue < 0.01).

The spatial distribution of the mean annual and total number of MHWs over the

entire study domain is presented in Figure 7. The highest mean annual number of events

was computed over the southern WFS, along the northern coasts of the Florida Keys and

inside the Florida Bay showing approximately 3 events per/year (Figure 7a) and more