patrickbdevaney/mia9 · Datasets at Hugging Face

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2041 3.2 12.4 2071 31.5 67.3 2101 63.5 148.9
2042 4.1 13.8 2072 32.6 69.6 2102 64.7 151.7
2043 5 15.1 2073 33.6 71.8 2103 65.9 154.4
2044 5.9 16.6 2074 34.7 74.2 2104 67.1 157.1
Appendix C. Mean Sea Level in Florida Bay
MSL was determined by averaging data over the last seven years at three sea level stations across
Florida Bay. Sea levels were first aggregated into daily averages, followed by a 30-day moving average
at each station. The MSL estimate consists of an average of these three stations from 1 July 2008–1 July
2015, as shown in Figure A1, and this MSL value of 0.97 ft NGVD29 or −14.8 cm NAVD88 (−0.49 feet
NAVD88) is used as the starting point of the projections in 2015.
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5, 31 21 of 26
Figure A1. Thirty-day moving averages of daily mean sea level at Murray Key (MK), Peterson Key
(PK) and Little Madeira Bay (LM) in Florida Bay. The dashed line is the mean of all three datasets.
Appendix D. Processes Not Included in the Projections
The mean sea level projections presented in this paper represent the contemporary state-of-the-art
in local sea level rise forecasts. However, knowledge of all processes and feedbacks driving sea levels
is limited, and the models on which these projections are based are necessarily incomplete. The models
do not have the spatial resolution and physical process representation required to resolve fine-scale
oceanographic processes such as tides and changes in the Florida Current. This means that inundation
will be observed during high tides and peaks of seasonal sea level cycles several years before the
projected dates when mean sea level reaches a specific land elevation.
Appendix D.1. Tides and Seasonal Cycles
Tides represent the most regular and familiar sea level changes at a coast, but are highly variable
in height and timing depending on regional and local bathymetric features. Along the Cape Sable
region, tides produce a water level change of up to 70 cm (2.3 ft) in daily and monthly cycles. There is
also a regional yearly cycle of water level from atmospheric and oceanographic forcings producing
water level changes of 30–40 cm (Appendix C).
Appendix D.2. Florida Current
The Florida Current is one of the strongest and most climatically-important ocean currents forming
the headwater of the Gulf Stream [39]. As the Florida Current fluctuates in intensity, sea levels along
the Atlantic coast of Florida respond to a geostrophic balance by falling when the current increases
and rising when the current decreases [40].
The Gulf Stream and Florida Current are components of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Circulation (AMOC), a component of the global ocean conveyor belt. Climate models agree that as the
ocean warms and fresh meltwater is added, there will be a decline in the strength of the AMOC [41].
A weakening AMOC is expected to result in a weakening of the Florida Current and a subsequent
increase in sea levels. The extent of this change is difficult to forecast, but recent evidence suggests that
a 10% decline in transport has contributed 60% of the roughly 7-cm increase in sea level at Vaca Key
over the last decade [10]. Continued reduction of the AMOC and Florida Current could be expected to
contribute an additional 10–15 cm of sea level rise to South Florida over this century. This potential is
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5, 31 22 of 26
not reflected in the sea level rise projections, but should be considered by authorities and planners that
use them.
Appendix D.3. Storm Surge
Although sea level rise and increases in coastal flooding are important physical stresses on South
Florida’s natural areas, it is the infrequent, high-impact storm surge events that drastically change
the landscape over the course of a few hours. For example, Hurricane Wilma in 2005 had a profound
impact on the ecology of the Cape Sable region of Everglades National Park [42,43] producing extensive
damage at the Flamingo Visitor Center of Everglades National Park, permanently closing the Flamingo
Lodge and Buttonwood Cafe.
Storm surge is highly dependent on the severity and path of the storm, as well as the local
bathymetric and topographic features of the coast, and since they occur infrequently, it is difficult
to develop robust predictions of these rare events. A popular approach is to fit an extreme-value
probability distribution to the highest water levels observed at a water level monitoring gauge.
However, gauges have short periods of record, typically a few decades at most, and they fail or are
destroyed during extreme storms such that peak water levels are not recorded. A predictive storm
surge database, SurgeDat, was developed in part to address this shortcoming by providing a statistical
combination of data from multiple events within an area of interest [44]. SurgeDat records storm surge
water levels from all available sources, often from post-event high-water marks where gauge data
are not available. SurgeDat then applies a statistical regression to estimate storm surge recurrence
intervals. A recurrence interval is the length of time over which one can expect a storm surge to meet
or exceed a specific inundation level. A familiar example is the 100-year flood level, which is really
a 100-year recurrence interval at the specified flood level. In other words, in any one year, there is a
1/100, or 1% chance that the flood level will be matched or exceeded. An excellent discussion of this
can be found at the United States Geological Survey web page water.usgs.gov/edu/100yearflood.html.
Relevant to South Florida, a subset of SurgeDat storm surge events was selected within a 25-mile
radius of 25.2◦ N, 80.7◦ W to represent Florida Bay impacts and is tabulated in Table A3. Based on
these events, the SurgeDat projection for storm surge recurrence intervals are shown in Figure A2 and
tabulated in Table A4, suggesting that a 180-cm (6 ft) surge event can be expected every 20 years. This
same level of sea level rise is not anticipated to occur until at least 2100.
Table A3. SurgeDat database entries for a 25-mile radius centered on 25.2◦ N, 80.7◦ W in Florida Bay.
Storm Name Year Longitude Latitude Surge (m) Datum Location
Katrina 2005 −81.0369 25.1294 1.22 Extreme SW Florida
Rita 2005 −80.7200 24.8605 1.22 NGVD29 Middle and Upper Keys
Wilma 2005 −81.0352 25.3523 2.50 Shark River 3
Gordon 1994 −80.5139 25.0108 1.22 Above Sea Level Upper Florida Keys
Andrew 1992 −80.9120 25.1431 1.50 Flamingo
David 1979 −80.6263 24.9231 0.61 Above Normal Islamorada
Gladys 1968 −80.5135 25.0110 0.15 Above Normal Tavernier
Inez 1966 −80.5297 24.9976 1.10 Above Normal Plantation Key
Alma 1966 −80.5135 25.0110 0.30 Above Normal Tavernier
Betsy 1965 −80.5148 25.0096 2.35 Mean Low Water Tavernier
Donna 1960 −80.6353 24.9133 4.11 Upper Matecumbe Key
Labor Day 1935 −80.7375 24.8516 5.49 Lower Matecumbe
Unnamed 1929 −80.3885 25.1848 2.68 Mean Sea Level Key Largo
The recurrence interval projection is by necessity based on a sparse dataset, and caution should
be used in its interpretation. As projection intervals become longer, it is more likely that the observed
data are inadequate to robustly represent all possibilities. Furthermore, these projections do not
incorporate changes from sea level rise or from a changing climate, which can alter the strength and
frequency of storms. An important aspect of sea level rise is that it significantly shortens the expected
recurrence intervals of storm surge. For example, under a median sea level rise projection at Key West,
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5, 31 23 of 26
Park et al. [45] find that a one-in-50-year storm surge based on historic data in 2010 can be expected to
occur once every five years by 2060.
Figure A2. Storm surge recurrence intervals from the SurgeDat database and return period predictor
for a 25-mile radius centered on 25.2◦ N, 80.7◦ W.
Table A4. Recurrence interval projection in years from the Florida Bay SurgeDat data. Note that this
projection does not take into account future sea level rise.
Interval (Year) Surge (m) Interval (Year) Surge (m)
10 0.45 56 3.88

2041 3.2 12.4 2071 31.5 67.3 2101 63.5 148.9

2042 4.1 13.8 2072 32.6 69.6 2102 64.7 151.7

2043 5 15.1 2073 33.6 71.8 2103 65.9 154.4

2044 5.9 16.6 2074 34.7 74.2 2104 67.1 157.1

Appendix C. Mean Sea Level in Florida Bay

MSL was determined by averaging data over the last seven years at three sea level stations across

Florida Bay. Sea levels were first aggregated into daily averages, followed by a 30-day moving average

at each station. The MSL estimate consists of an average of these three stations from 1 July 2008–1 July

2015, as shown in Figure A1, and this MSL value of 0.97 ft NGVD29 or −14.8 cm NAVD88 (−0.49 feet

NAVD88) is used as the starting point of the projections in 2015.

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5, 31 21 of 26

Figure A1. Thirty-day moving averages of daily mean sea level at Murray Key (MK), Peterson Key

(PK) and Little Madeira Bay (LM) in Florida Bay. The dashed line is the mean of all three datasets.

Appendix D. Processes Not Included in the Projections

The mean sea level projections presented in this paper represent the contemporary state-of-the-art

in local sea level rise forecasts. However, knowledge of all processes and feedbacks driving sea levels

is limited, and the models on which these projections are based are necessarily incomplete. The models

do not have the spatial resolution and physical process representation required to resolve fine-scale

oceanographic processes such as tides and changes in the Florida Current. This means that inundation

will be observed during high tides and peaks of seasonal sea level cycles several years before the

projected dates when mean sea level reaches a specific land elevation.

Appendix D.1. Tides and Seasonal Cycles

Tides represent the most regular and familiar sea level changes at a coast, but are highly variable

in height and timing depending on regional and local bathymetric features. Along the Cape Sable

region, tides produce a water level change of up to 70 cm (2.3 ft) in daily and monthly cycles. There is

also a regional yearly cycle of water level from atmospheric and oceanographic forcings producing

water level changes of 30–40 cm (Appendix C).

Appendix D.2. Florida Current

The Florida Current is one of the strongest and most climatically-important ocean currents forming

the headwater of the Gulf Stream [39]. As the Florida Current fluctuates in intensity, sea levels along

the Atlantic coast of Florida respond to a geostrophic balance by falling when the current increases

and rising when the current decreases [40].

The Gulf Stream and Florida Current are components of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning

Circulation (AMOC), a component of the global ocean conveyor belt. Climate models agree that as the

ocean warms and fresh meltwater is added, there will be a decline in the strength of the AMOC [41].

A weakening AMOC is expected to result in a weakening of the Florida Current and a subsequent

increase in sea levels. The extent of this change is difficult to forecast, but recent evidence suggests that

a 10% decline in transport has contributed 60% of the roughly 7-cm increase in sea level at Vaca Key

over the last decade [10]. Continued reduction of the AMOC and Florida Current could be expected to

contribute an additional 10–15 cm of sea level rise to South Florida over this century. This potential is

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5, 31 22 of 26

not reflected in the sea level rise projections, but should be considered by authorities and planners that

use them.

Appendix D.3. Storm Surge

Although sea level rise and increases in coastal flooding are important physical stresses on South

Florida’s natural areas, it is the infrequent, high-impact storm surge events that drastically change

the landscape over the course of a few hours. For example, Hurricane Wilma in 2005 had a profound

impact on the ecology of the Cape Sable region of Everglades National Park [42,43] producing extensive

damage at the Flamingo Visitor Center of Everglades National Park, permanently closing the Flamingo

Lodge and Buttonwood Cafe.

Storm surge is highly dependent on the severity and path of the storm, as well as the local

bathymetric and topographic features of the coast, and since they occur infrequently, it is difficult

to develop robust predictions of these rare events. A popular approach is to fit an extreme-value

probability distribution to the highest water levels observed at a water level monitoring gauge.

However, gauges have short periods of record, typically a few decades at most, and they fail or are

destroyed during extreme storms such that peak water levels are not recorded. A predictive storm

surge database, SurgeDat, was developed in part to address this shortcoming by providing a statistical

combination of data from multiple events within an area of interest [44]. SurgeDat records storm surge

water levels from all available sources, often from post-event high-water marks where gauge data

are not available. SurgeDat then applies a statistical regression to estimate storm surge recurrence

intervals. A recurrence interval is the length of time over which one can expect a storm surge to meet

or exceed a specific inundation level. A familiar example is the 100-year flood level, which is really

a 100-year recurrence interval at the specified flood level. In other words, in any one year, there is a

1/100, or 1% chance that the flood level will be matched or exceeded. An excellent discussion of this

can be found at the United States Geological Survey web page water.usgs.gov/edu/100yearflood.html.

Relevant to South Florida, a subset of SurgeDat storm surge events was selected within a 25-mile

radius of 25.2◦ N, 80.7◦ W to represent Florida Bay impacts and is tabulated in Table A3. Based on

these events, the SurgeDat projection for storm surge recurrence intervals are shown in Figure A2 and

tabulated in Table A4, suggesting that a 180-cm (6 ft) surge event can be expected every 20 years. This

same level of sea level rise is not anticipated to occur until at least 2100.

Table A3. SurgeDat database entries for a 25-mile radius centered on 25.2◦ N, 80.7◦ W in Florida Bay.

Storm Name Year Longitude Latitude Surge (m) Datum Location

Katrina 2005 −81.0369 25.1294 1.22 Extreme SW Florida

Rita 2005 −80.7200 24.8605 1.22 NGVD29 Middle and Upper Keys

Wilma 2005 −81.0352 25.3523 2.50 Shark River 3

Gordon 1994 −80.5139 25.0108 1.22 Above Sea Level Upper Florida Keys

Andrew 1992 −80.9120 25.1431 1.50 Flamingo

David 1979 −80.6263 24.9231 0.61 Above Normal Islamorada

Gladys 1968 −80.5135 25.0110 0.15 Above Normal Tavernier

Inez 1966 −80.5297 24.9976 1.10 Above Normal Plantation Key

Alma 1966 −80.5135 25.0110 0.30 Above Normal Tavernier

Betsy 1965 −80.5148 25.0096 2.35 Mean Low Water Tavernier

Donna 1960 −80.6353 24.9133 4.11 Upper Matecumbe Key

Labor Day 1935 −80.7375 24.8516 5.49 Lower Matecumbe

Unnamed 1929 −80.3885 25.1848 2.68 Mean Sea Level Key Largo

The recurrence interval projection is by necessity based on a sparse dataset, and caution should

be used in its interpretation. As projection intervals become longer, it is more likely that the observed

data are inadequate to robustly represent all possibilities. Furthermore, these projections do not

incorporate changes from sea level rise or from a changing climate, which can alter the strength and

frequency of storms. An important aspect of sea level rise is that it significantly shortens the expected

recurrence intervals of storm surge. For example, under a median sea level rise projection at Key West,

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5, 31 23 of 26

Park et al. [45] find that a one-in-50-year storm surge based on historic data in 2010 can be expected to

occur once every five years by 2060.

Figure A2. Storm surge recurrence intervals from the SurgeDat database and return period predictor

for a 25-mile radius centered on 25.2◦ N, 80.7◦ W.

Table A4. Recurrence interval projection in years from the Florida Bay SurgeDat data. Note that this

projection does not take into account future sea level rise.

Interval (Year) Surge (m) Interval (Year) Surge (m)

10 0.45 56 3.88