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XOM | Exxon sues Treasury over 2M sanctions penalty | Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM says it will sue the U S government to stop a 2M penalty over alleged violations of Ukraine related sanctions arguing that the Treasury Department based the penalty on a retroactive re interpretation of the sanctions law that did not align with previously issued guidance XOM says it was following authoritative and specific guidance from the Obama administration that the sanctions barred Americans from dealing with individuals but not Russian government owned oil companies and that now the DoT was trying to change the rules a year later The Treasury s Office of Foreign Asset Control which accuses XOM of behaving with reckless disregard for violating sanctions while current Sec of State Rex Tillerson was the company s CEO in May 2014 says the plain language of the sanctions statute did not distinguish between personal and professional roles Now read |
XOM | Exxon sues U S over fine levied for Russia deal under Tillerson | By Yeganeh Torbati and Ernest Scheyder WASHINGTON HOUSTON Reuters Exxon Mobil Corp NYSE XOM sued the U S government on Thursday blasting as unlawful and capricious a 2 million fine levied against it for a three year old oil joint venture with Russia s Rosneft The U S Treasury Department on Thursday morning slapped the world s largest publicly traded oil producer with the fine for reckless disregard of U S sanctions in dealings with Russia in 2014 when Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was Exxon s chief executive The lawsuit and the Treasury s unusually detailed statement on Exxon s conduct represented an extraordinary confrontation between a major American company and the U S government made all the more striking because Exxon s former CEO is now in President Donald Trump s Cabinet Exxon took the government to court despite the fact that the fine the maximum allowed would have a minor impact on the company which made 7 84 billion in profit last year The fine came after a U S review of deals Exxon signed with Rosneft Russia s largest oil producer weeks after Washington imposed sanctions on Moscow for annexing Ukraine s Crimea region Between May 14 and May 23 2014 top U S based Exxon executives signed eight documents with Igor Sechin the head of state run Rosneft the Treasury s Office of Foreign Assets Control OFAC said in the statement on its website OFAC said Exxon had demonstrated reckless disregard for U S sanctions requirements by signing the deals with Sechin just weeks after the United States blacklisted him OFAC said in the three page statement For the statement see The Treasury imposed sanctions on Sechin in April 2014 as part of measures to pressure Russia over its intervention in Ukraine saying Sechin had shown utter loyalty to Russian President Vladimir Putin The sanctions prohibit U S citizens or people in the United States from dealing with those on the blacklist such as Sechin Rosneft itself is subject to narrower U S sanctions that still allow Americans to deal with the company on some transactions Exxon said in a statement that OFAC s action was fundamentally unfair and sued the U S government in Texas in an effort to overturn the decision The company is based in Irving Texas In its 21 page complaint Exxon argued that Sechin was subject to sanctions only in his individual capacity and that guidance from the Obama administration at the time made clear that the sanctions applied only to the personal assets of the sanctioned individuals and emphasized that the sanctions did not restrict business with the companies those individuals managed For Exxon s complaint see TILLERSON NOT CONSULTED Tillerson left Exxon late last year to become secretary of state after 10 years running the company He is now responsible for U S foreign policy which includes helping make sanctions decisions The State Department referred questions about the fine to Exxon and the Treasury State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert told reporters on Thursday that the agency was alerted to the fine on Wednesday A Treasury spokesman said OFAC engaged with Exxon s lawyers only and did not discuss this case with Secretary Tillerson Tillerson said in January that he would recuse himself from matters involving Exxon for one year after his December 2016 resignation unless he is authorized to participate Though the State Department plays a major part in formulating sanctions policy former U S officials and sanctions experts said it was unlikely the agency had a role in deciding the fine announced on Thursday because it falls under OFAC s regulatory role The back and forth between the Treasury and Exxon over the 2014 dealings spanned both the Obama and Trump administrations and started with a subpoena from OFAC to Exxon in July 2014 Exxon said in its complaint Exxon fully complied with guidance from Democratic former President Barack Obama s administration that ongoing oil and gas business activities with Rosneft were permitted Exxon spokesman Alan Jeffers said in a statement The Treasury is trying to retroactively enforce a new interpretation of an executive order inconsistent with its prior guidance Jeffers said OFAC s action is fundamentally unfair Exxon also cited a Treasury Department representative s comments in May 2014 that BP LON BP Plc Chief Executive Bob Dudley an American citizen could continue to participate in Rosneft board meetings so long as they related only to Rosneft s business In its statement explaining the fine OFAC said that the Treasury Department representative s comments did not address Exxon s conduct BP did not immediately respond to a request for comment Publicly available guidance on the Treasury s website at the time of Exxon s dealings with Sechin said Americans should ensure they do not enter into contracts signed by sanctioned individuals OFAC said And by dealing with Sechin the company caused significant harm to U S sanctions on Russia the agency said Because Rosneft itself is not off limits to Americans another company executive could have signed the contract with no sanctions risk to Exxon said David Mortlock who was a State Department and White House sanctions official under Obama You could have Sechin standing over the guy s shoulder said Mortlock now an attorney at Willkie Farr Gallagher LLP in Washington But the problem here is that it was signed by Sechin himself Exxon said that approach would have flown in the face of standard business practice You don t ask your business partner to have someone else sign instead of the CEO said Exxon spokesman Jeffers OPPOSITION TO SANCTIONS Exxon has long opposed U S sanctions on Russia saying they harm American business interests and actually help European rivals Tillerson said in 2014 that the company did not support sanctions because they are not effective unless they are very well implemented Sanctions were a contentious topic at Tillerson s confirmation hearing last January At the time Republican and Democratic lawmakers were concerned that Trump whose associates are now under investigation for their ties to Russia would try to quickly lift U S sanctions on the country When sanctions are imposed they by their design are going to harm American business Tillerson said during the hearing in response to a question about his views on them He also said that Exxon never directly lobbied against sanctions a claim that was immediately challenged by senators who cited Exxon s own lobbying disclosure forms
The case is Exxon Mobil Corp v Steve Munchin et al U S District Court North District of Texas No 3 17 cv 1930 |
CSCO | Cisco Down On Earnings Possible Double Top | Cisco Systems NASDAQ CSCO traded 4 lower on Thursday morning after reporting in line earnings
The company reported earnings per share of 0 66 and total revenue of 12 46 billion just above analyst expectations of 0 65 and 12 43 billion Likewise they provided guidance for next quarter of between of 0 68 and 0 70 for earnings and 12 6 billion and 12 9 billion for revenue This was in line with consensus estimates of 0 69 and 12 73 billion
Investors may focusing today on services revenue as Cisco is trying to transition customers to new network switching products that would bring in service revenue on an ongoing basis However services revenue came in at 3 16 billion below analyst expectations of 3 22 billion This miss may account for a portion of the today s decline
In analyzing the market cycles on the CSCO weekly chart below we believe the stock will continue to face selling pressure in the coming weeks as the declining phase of its current cycle comes to a close Our projection is 40 by late June If this plays out it may result in a double top which may not bode well for the stock s intermediate term future |
XOM | Trump Bids Adieu to Paris Agreement What Now | Surprising no one last week President Donald Trump announced his decision to withdraw the U S from the Paris climate agreement highlighting the depth of his commitment to keep America First Also surprising no one the media is making much of the fact that the U S now joins only Nicaragua and Syria in refusing to participate in the accord
Trump was under intense pressure from business leaders politicians on both sides of the aisle environmental activists members of his Cabinet even his own daughter Ivanka reportedly to stay in the agreement but he made his decision with the American worker in mind The Paris accord Trump said
is simply the latest example of Washington entering into an agreement that disadvantages the United States leaving American workers and taxpayers to absorb the cost in terms of lost jobs lower wages shuttered factories and vastly demised economic production
This is the assessment of Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross who to defend the decision Any time that people are taking money out of your pocket and you make them put it back in they re not going to be happy Ross said making a similar argument to the one that prompted the Brexit referendum last year
Just as many Brits were tired of following rules passed down from unelected officials in Brussels many Americans have feared the encroachment of global environmentalists socialist agenda which they believe threatens to usurp their freedom
A thought provoking article from FiveThirtyEight outlines how climate science became a partisan issue over the last 30 years in the U S It was the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s the article argues that brought on a significant partisan shift in attitude with conservative thinkers beginning to see the as the new scourge
No the Sky Isn t Falling Despite the withdrawal I believe that the U S will not stop innovating and being a world leader in renewable energy even while oil and natural gas production continues to surge As the president himself said we will still be the cleanest and most environmentally friendly country on Earth
Recently I shared with you that we re seeing record renewable capacity growth here in the U S with of net new electric generating capacity in 2016 In the first quarter of 2017 wind capacity grew at an impressive 385 percent over the same period last year The clean electricity sector now employs more people in the U S than fossil fuel electricity generation according to the
This was all accomplished not because of an international agreement but because independent communities markets and corporations demanded it Solar and wind turbine manufacturers will likely continue to perform well in the long term as renewable energy costs decline and battery technology improves
Clearly people s attitudes toward climate change and its impact on business operations are changing This week Exxon Mobil shareholders voted to require the company to disclose more information about how climate change and environmental regulations might affect its global oil operations The energy giant along with its former CEO Secretary of State Rex Tillerson favored staying in the climate deal At the same time markets reacted positively to the exit with the S P 500 Index Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite Index all closing at record highs on Thursday following Trump s announcement
So What Does This Mean The question now is what investment implications if any the withdrawal might trigger
The short answer is no one knows exactly what happens now There s already speculation that some countries might act to increasing the cost of American made goods to offset the fact that U S manufacturers could make products more cheaply because they would not have to abide by Paris climate goals according to Politico German chancellor candidate Martin Schulz has said that should he be elected in September he would refuse to engage with the U S in transatlantic trade talks Schulz s comments are not that far removed from those of his political rival incumbent Angela Merkel who called Trump s decision extremely regrettable
This has the potential to widen the rift that s been forming between the U S and Germany since Trump took office Recall that Trump refused to shake Merkel s hand during her Washington visit in March More recently the president reportedly called the Germans bad very bad adding that he would stop them from selling millions of cars in the U S
One of the biggest winners of the withdrawal could be China Just as the Asian giant is from multilateral free trade agreements such as NAFTA and the Trans Pacific Partnership TPP it s also in a position to brand itself as the world s leader in renewable energy Last week Chinese Premiere Li Keqiang met with European Union EU officials in Brussels to discuss trade between the two world superpowers but they also took the time to condemn the U S president s actions with European Council president Donald Tusk saying that the Paris agreement s mission would continue
China might be the largest carbon emitter right now it overtook the U S a decade ago but it s also the biggest investor in renewable energy generation with 361 billion being spent between now and 2020 The country just fired up the world s largest floating solar power plant in what used to be a coal mine now flooded The plant will provide as much as 40 megawatts MW of power to Huainan China home to more than 2 3 million people
European Manufacturers Have Strongest Jobs Growth in 20 Years On the same day President Trump shared his decision new purchasing manager s index PMI data was released and European manufacturers were the big surprise The EU manufacturing sector strengthened its expansion for the ninth straight month in May reaching a 73 month high of 57 right in line with expectations Jobs growth grew to an incredible 20 year high
Germany led the group with a PMI of 59 5 Of the eight EU countries that are monitored only Greece fell short of expansion
The U S meanwhile slipped from 52 8 in April to 52 7 in May posting the weakest improvement in business conditions in eight months before the election China fared even worse falling from 50 3 to 49 6 signaling a slight deterioration in its manufacturing sector for the first time in almost a year
Some links above may be directed to third party websites U S Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by these websites and is not responsible for their content All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every invest Holdings may change daily Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter end The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U S Global Investors as of 03 31 2017 Exxon Mobil Corp NYSE XOM SolarEdge Technologies Inc Vestas Wind Systems A S Gamesa Corp Tecnologica SA Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price weighted average of 30 blue chip stocks that are generally leaders in their industry The S P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U S companies The Nasdaq Composite Index is a capitalization weighted index of all Nasdaq National Market and SmallCap stocks The S P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S P 500 The Purchasing Manager s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector The PMI index is based on five major indicators new orders inventory levels production supplier deliveries and the employment environment U S Global Investors Inc is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission SEC This does not mean that we are sponsored recommended or approved by the SEC or that our abilities or qualifications in any respect have been passed upon by the SEC or any officer of the SEC This commentary should not be considered a solicitation or offering of any investment product Certain materials in this commentary may contain dated information The information provided was current at the time of publication |
VZ | Friday s Stock Market Forecast Outlook Uncertain | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Friday uncertain
ES pivot 2081 25 Holding below is bearish
Next week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader VZ not a swing trade buy
I called the Dow higher for Wednesday but the market finished virtually unchanged Of course that s an interesting development so let s check out the implications of the latest charts for the market on Friday as we close out the week with option expirations for November
The technicals
The Dow On Thursday the Dow went basically nowhere as it oscillated about the unchanged line to finish with a perfect doji star on its smallest range day since October 26th Indicators are similarly wandering around halfway between overbought and oversold and thus are not particularly useful tonight So that leaves us with a weak reversal warning but one that requires confirmation on Friday This may just reflect uncertainty over option expiration days which often feature strange action
The VIX Wednesday night I thought that the VIX did not look particularly bullish for Thursday and indeed it tested its 200 day MA early on But in the end it bounced right off it to post a small 0 83 gain on an inverted hammer That left all the indicators somewhat confused with RSI rising but momentum and the stochastic both falling So at this point it looks like the 200 MA at 16 is providing some support here and it s not clear that the VIX will want to go below that on Friday Some limited upside isn t out of the question either
Market index futures Thursday night all three futures are mixed at 12 13 AM EST with ES down 0 04 but YM up 0 06 Wednesday night I couldn t find any bearish signs at all on this chart but after such a big gain on Wednesday it looks like ES finally ran out of gas on Thursday putting in a doji star sitting right at the top of Wednesday s close This is a reversal warning that requires confirmation and it looks like we re getting it in the new overnight as ES is running lower and all of the indicators are still a bit short of overbought So it is possible this one could move lower on Friday
ES daily pivot Thursday night the ES daily pivot rises from 2068 42 to 2081 25 That s enough to put ES back below its new pivot so this indicator now turns back to bearish
Dollar Index Wednesday night I noted a reversal warning in the dollar but noted that it required confirmation on Thursday Well we got that confirmation big time as the dollar plunged 0 68 on a gap down red candle That was enough to send the indicators off of overbought and also cause a bearish stochastic crossover So right now it looks like there s more room for the the dollar to run lower on Friday despite all the noise you re hearing in the media about the strength of the dollar
Euro I also got the euro correct Wednesday night when I called for a higher close on Thursday as it bounced right back up to 1 0736 after a nice doji star on Wednesday That leaves it hanging right on the edge of a month long descending RTC for a bullish setup However the overnight is showing no interest in any sort of follow through and the indicators are confused wandering around halfway between overbought and oversold So right now the general impression is that it s possible the euro may run lower on Friday
Transportation At least I got this much correct After a nice gain on Wednesday the trans followed it up with another 1 advance on Thursday Indicators continue to rise off of oversold but have yet to reach overbought In addition the upper BB is not until 8333 so there s still some room to rise here and now with a confirmed two white soldiers marching on there is still nothing bearish about this chart for Friday
The market s failure to advance on Thursday after its 200 MA breakout make me cautious Add in a lackluster overnight in the futures and VIX that just bounced off its own 200 day MA and it s not clear where the buyers are going to be coming from But there are still no outright bearish signs on the charts so with Friday being op ex anyway I m just going to call Friday uncertain That s all she wrote Reminder I m taking next week off so I ll see you again Sunday night after next
Single Stock Trader
Verizon Communications Inc N VZ surprised me on Thursday by rejecting the hanging man from Wednesday as it gained another 0 84 That makes it four in a row now and it s pretty clear we missed this particular bus However the indicators have not yet hit overbought so there might still be some more gas in the tank for Friday Nevertheless this is not my preferred trade entry setup |
VZ | Monday s Stock Market Forecast | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Monday lower
ES pivot 2089 92 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ now a speculative swing trade buy
Recap
I decided to take last week off because I wasn t expecting much action at all on the holiday shortened week And nothing is pretty much what we got with the Dow trading in a tiny range all week long and moving very little But now with everybody full of turkey and back to work again it s time to see where is market is headed on Monday So let s get right to the charts as we close out the month
The technicals
The Dow There s really very little to say about this chart tonight other than the fact that the indicators are all highly overbought at this point and with a pile of dojis in place it looks like there s more downside risk and upside potential at this point
The VIX Last Tuesday VIX made a failed attempt to break above its 200 day MA That was followed by a gap down red candle on Wednesday and then a tall inverted hammer on Friday in a short session All of this leaves the VIX now quite oversold and the stochastic primed for a bullish crossover Of course it s hard to say after a holiday shortened week like this but right now it looks like the VIX has a better than even chance of moving higher on Monday
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 47 AM EST with ES down 0 17 After a week s worth of dojis and going nowhere on Sunday night ES is offering us more of the same It is down slightly in the new Sunday overnight but still within a week long trading range However the indicators tell a different story They have now fallen off of extreme overbought levels and the stochastic has formed a bearish crossover Therefore this chart definitely looks lower for Monday
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2087 58 to 2089 92 That puts ES back below its new pivot so this indicator is back to bearish
Dollar Index The dollar meanwhile wobbled its way higher last week but despite hitting a close not seen since last April 13th it has yet to hit overbought on the indicators Therefore with the upper BB still a ways above us it looks like the dollar still has room to run higher on Monday
Euro And similarly last week the euro continued wending its way lower as it continued what is now a two month long descending RTC after dropping below its 200 day MA on October 22nd That left it closing Friday at 1 0602 its lowest close since April 13th And even with all of that the indicators are not yet oversold And with further downside in the new Sunday overnight it looks like selling is not yet over
Transportation The trans fell for two days last week before putting in a tall hammer On Friday they rose out of a short falling RTC for a bullish setup Indicators remain just short of overbought but the stochastic is starting to curve around for a bullish crossover So this chart actually looks more bullish than bearish at this point
The last trading day of November according to The Stock Trader s Almanac is bearish And the overall look of the charts tonight seems to support that Therefore I am going to go ahead and call Monday lower
Single Stock Trader
Verizon fell out of a rising RTC last week for a bearish setup But that was not confirmed and instead we now have a stochastic that looks primed to form a bullish crossover as well as a bullish engulfing candle So I am now going to call this a speculative swing trade buy for Monday |
VZ | Starting December With Tuesday higher | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday higher
ES pivot 2084 42 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ still a speculative swing trade buy
Monday ran true to historical form as the Dow lost 79 points to close out November on a down note That now brings us to December and we go right to the charts to see where the first day might be headed
Quote of the Week
I m disappointed right now
Sheldon Silver former Speaker of the New York State Assembly after being found guilty in federal court of all seven counts of fraud extortion and money laundering against him
Not I m sorry just disappointed Hey it couldn t happen to a bigger blowhard Silver you arrogant career crook Hopefully you ll use your upcoming time in the slammer to contemplate the error of your ways This restores my faith in karma I guess sometimes there s justice after all
The technicals
The Dow The Dow s tall red candle Monday was enough to send indicators off of their extreme overbought levels just to the very edge of overbought The stochastic has also now completed a bearish crossover and is moving lower too This move was also enough to break us out of last week s narrow trading range So once again there is nothing bullish all about this chart tonight
The VIX Last night I gave the VIX a better than even chance of moving higher on Monday and that s exactly what it did gaining 6 68 to test its 200 day MA at 16 25 That test was rejected though but the VIX still managed to close just above 16 and just below the MA This move also sent the indicators rising off of oversold and also gave us a fresh bullish stochastic crossover This serves as confirmation for last Friday s inverted hammer and makes it likely that the VIX will take another stab at the 200 MA again on Tuesday Basically it looks like there s still more upside available to the VIX at this point
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 12 16 AM EST with ES up 0 55 On Monday ES had its biggest drop since November 13th as it fell out of its recent trading range to close back down to 2080 That just barely sent it off of overbought and also confirmed a bearish stochastic crossover But what s interesting to note is that the new overnight is rising significantly and that is pushing it right back into that trading range as well as curving the stochastic around to cancel the bearish crossover So at this point it s a little premature to call ES lower on Tuesday
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2089 92 to 2084 42 That now puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish again
Dollar index Last night I said the dollar still had room to run higher on Monday and so it did gaining another 0 14 But it did it on a perfect doji star which is something of a reversal warning However the indicators are nowhere near overbought yet so we have to take that with a grain of salt In fact the dollar remains in a two week long rising RTC and the upper BB is still a long ways from here In fact there is no resistance until back to the beginning of last April So while tonight is not outright bullish I just can t call the dollar lower yet from here
Euro Last night I said that the selling in the euro didn t quite look over yet and indeed it wasn t as on Monday it fell again this time back down 1 0576 its lowest close since April 13th That makes it three down in a row and the new overnight is going lower again as the euro remains in a month long descending RTC With the lower BB not until 1 0504 the euro seems to be intent on touching that level before too long In the meantime there s nothing bullish about this chart tonight
Transportation Last Friday the trans exited a short descending RTC for a bullish setup But that s why we require two days of upward activity for a confirmation of a trend reversal And we did not get that as on Monday the trans greatly underperformed the Dow losing 1 39 on a tall red marubozu that sent the indicators continuing lower though they have yet to reach oversold In any case with no support nearby until 8053 it looks like there s more downside to come here on Tuesday
The charts don t look all that bullish at the moment to be sure and although the first day of most months is bullish that s not particularly the case for December Still December is one of the best months for the market and the futures are all sufficiently higher that I don t feel like fighting this particular tape so I m just going to call Tuesday higher
Single Stock Trader
Last night I called Verizon a speculative buy and on Monday it did indeed gain another half a percent on high volume That was enough to send the indicators moving higher though they are still only halfway to overbought It also completed a nice bullish stochastic crossover The resulting candle is a fat spinning top though so there s at least bit of the reversal warning here but one which requires confirmation In the meantime I would just put a stop under this one and let it ride as we definitely don t have a solid bearish warning at this point |
VZ | Monthly Bias Higher But Wednesday Uncertain | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday higher
ES pivot 2095 00 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ now a swing trade hold
After looking like it was going to break to the downside on Monday on Tuesday the Dow instead reversed course to post a decent 168 point gain That changes the picture so let s take a quick look at the charts to see where Wednesday is headed There s no point in going into too much detail since with a bunch of Feddage due out the conclusion is pretty much up in the air
The technicals
The Dow After breaking to the downside on Monday from last week s tiny rangebound action on Tuesday the Dow turned around and broke above the upper end of that range on a tall green marubozu By putting in both lower lows and higher highs the Dow is now forming a small megaphone pattern and since those usually exit in the direction from which they were entered that bodes well for the rest of the week I ll also note that stochastic is now on the verge of a bullish crossover from a high level and as I always say those are often good for another day or two if higher prices
The VIX Equally importantly on Tuesday the VIX did try to break above its 200 day MA as I predicted last night But this attempt failed even worse than Monday s and the VIX ended giving up totally dropping over 9 on a fat inverted hammer That sent the indicators right back to oversold and cancelled what looks like a developing bullish stochastic crossover It also broke support at 15 14 and left the VIX just above its next support level at 14 So with nothing at all between here and there it s entirely possible that it could go lower again on Wednesday
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are slightly higher at 12 19 AM EST with ES up 0 02 After looking decidedly bearish last night ES greatly surprised me with a major advance on Tuesday that handily cleared recent resistance around 2091 to close all the way back up to 2100 on the dot That leaves only resistance at 2103 at this point but all indicators are now back to overbought So it s not clear if ES has enough gas in the tank to follow through on Wednesday
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2084 42 to 2095 00 That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish
Dollar index I was cautious about the dollar last night but on Tuesday it confirmed Monday s reversal candle with a fat gap down red spinning top that left the indicators in disarray just short of overbought Overall this chart looks more bearish than anything but it s hardly a given
Euro After looking completely intent to reach parity by the end of the year on Tuesday the euro staged something a major reversal with a tall green marubozu that brought it right back to 1 063 That caused all the indicators to reverse course just before they were going to hit oversold and also gave us a bullish setup on a descending RTC exit So right now it looks like there s a chance the euro could follow through on Wednesday with some additional upside
Transportation After an ugly looking Monday on Tuesday the trans got almost all of it back following a tall red marubozu with a green one That caused the indicators to stop their decline just before hitting oversold and also curved the stochastic around in preparation for a bullish crossover leaving this chart sort of up in the air at the moment
Although the charts are now all looking generally bullish tonight that s not being reflected in the futures My guess is that people are just going to sit on their hands until the latest Feddage is out of the way So much as I m thinking this market wants to go higher I m going to content myself with calling Wednesday uncertain
Single Stock Trader
Verizon was a relative laggard on the Dow Tuesday advancing just 13 cents on a spindly spinning top That left the indicators somewhat confused and wandering around halfway between oversold and overbought Both momentum and RSI are falling but money flow and OBV are rising In addition the stochastic now has a freshly completed bullish crossover so at this point it s kind of a toss up My personal inclination would be to put a stop under it at this point and if it goes down on Wednesday then just let it go If not then let it ride |
VZ | Chart Confusion So Thursday Uncertain | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday uncertain
ES pivot 2087 17 Holding below is bearish
Friday bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ not a swing trade buy
Recap
Well Wednesday afternoon Auntie Janet Spaketh and Mr Market didn t Liketh it dropping 159 in the Dow to end near session lows And to top it all off it s another Nite Owl Lite Nite as I just plum ran out of time to put the blog together So it s just the conclusions no discussions And I apologize for neglecting to update the Wednesday headline call It really was uncertain as given on the Bottom Line
The technicals
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 12 15 AM EST with ES up 0 12
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2095 00 to 2087 17 That puts ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish
Wednesday sort of undid all the progress we made on Tuesday and the charts tonight are once again looking generally pretty negative But from a slightly wider perspective it looks like we re still in the same rut as last week just a bit wider ranging now We re near the bottom of the range but the indicators are looking lower and the VIX is wanting to run higher So I hate to do it but with this sort of confusion in the charts I have no choice but to throw up my hands and call Thursday uncertain
Single Stock Trader
Last night I said to let VZ go if it failed to run higher on Wednesday Well it did fail so this trade is over Jack |
VZ | Friday Could Be A Hammer Day | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Friday higher
ES pivot 2087 17 Holding below is bearish
Next week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ not a swing trade buy
I m sure glad I called Thursday uncertain because the Dow had its worst day since late September on Thursday down 252 points You can blame the price of oil the ECB rising interest rate fears or the phase of the moon whatever In any case it was a bad day at Black Rock At least we now finally have a decisive break from a two week long stretch of indecision so let s take a look at the charts and see which way Friday is going
The technicals
The Dow On Thursday the Dow took a giant 1 42 dump to go crashing right back through its 200 day MA That s a bad sign and left the indicators oversold and continued the current bearish stochastic crossover Just looking at the daily chart here there s really nothing bullish to say about it now
The VIX Similarly on Thursday the VIX jumped right up through its own 200 day MA with a giant 13 83 pop that just exactly rang the gong on its upper BB at 19 45 before falling back a bit to 18 11 That continued the indicators rising towards overbought though they re are not there yet However the upper BB touch is always a bearish sign for the VIX so it s not certain it will move higher again Friday
Market index futures Thursday night all three futures are higher at 12 56 AM EST with ES up 0 18 And like everything else on Thursday ES took its biggest drop since September 28th This featured a test of its 200 day MA but that was successful as the MA provided support and it closed exactly on it at 2051 25 The indicators are now very close to oversold but not quite there yet However with such a big drop in one day I would say a DCB or relief rally is not out of the question for Friday And so far a non trivial gain in the overnight Thursday seems to be supporting that idea
ES daily pivot Thursday night the ES daily pivot fell again from 2087 17 to 2062 17 That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish
Dollar Index On Thursday the dollar got totally hammered courtesy of Super Mario with a with an unbelievable 2 39 death dive one so big I couldn t even find anything comparable scrolling back five years This monster gap down red marubozu took the dollar oversold and sent all the indicators plunging lower It is now very close to its 200 day MA and this chart if anything looks extremely overdone I wouldn t be surprised to see some sort of a relief rally or at least a DCB off of this nonsense on Friday Here take a look at this chart The 200 MA is the dashed orange line
Euro And of course obviously on Thursday the euro took the opposite tack with an enormous green candle the likes of which I have literally never seen in the 10 years I ve been doing this It demolished its two month long descending RTC to close back up to 1 0974 just short of its own 200 day MA That sent all the indicators overbought in just one day and as evidence that the dollar decline may be overdone we see that the euro in the new Thursday overnight is declining significantly So I would look for some measure of retracement here on Friday
Transportation Like everything else on Thursday the trans had an absolutely miserable day dropping 1 8 to actually close below their lower BB at 7886 That leaves the indicators all oversold and the stochastic starting to curve around for a bullish crossover But we need to see some sort of confirmation before calling this chart higher especially now that we ve got two large black crows on the books
We had several important 200 day MA s on Thursday with the Dow and SPX both falling below them the VIX rising above it and ES finding support on it That s three negative to one positive but I ll note that oil has found four month long support on Thursday The SPX Hi Lo indicator hit 31 4 on Thursday which is near what we d like to see for a reversal though not quite And the Dow and SPX both have support at their lower BB s very nearby So call me crazy but I m going to go waaay out on a limb tonight and just call
Friday higher I think we re due for a DCB at the least Friday could be a hammer day That s all she wrote See you again Sunday night
Single Stock Trader
Last night officially declared the latest Verizon Communications Inc N VZ trade dead and it was a good thing too because it fell further on Thursday all the way down to exactly touch its lower BB at 44 33 That completes a bearish stochastic crossover and gives us two red candles in a row So it s still too early to think about getting back in again |
VZ | Daily Stock Market Forecast Tuesday Lower | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday lower
ES pivot 2080 33 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ not a swing trade buy
Last night I thought that the market was going to be in for a pause on Monday And it was a generally down day led lower by energy stocks as the price of oil continues to crater At least now we have the pin action from Friday s big run up so let s see what that means for Tuesday
The technicals
The Dow While the range was somewhat larger than I expected the Dow indeed was completely unable to make any headway past Friday s highs That sent the indicators lower before ever reaching overbought though we still have a bullish stochastic crossover in place But the resulting hanging man candle leaves some doubt which will need to be resolved on Tuesday Overall though I m not very optimistic about this chart tonight
The VIX Last night I blew my call for the VIX quite badly It did not fall on Monday instead it rose nearly 7 However the retest of its 200 day MA was a flop and the resulting candle was a tall gravestone doji That was enough to cause a bearish stochastic crossover so with the 200 MA serving as resistance above it s not out of the question that the VIX goes lower from here on Tuesday
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 1 01 AM EST with ES down 0 41 On Monday ES put in a red hanging man right at the top of Friday s big pop That s a reversal warning and a dark cloud cover but indicators are still nowhere near overbought and in fact the stochastic has only now just completed a bullish crossover Still the short term here looks bearish and in fact the overnight is continuing the lower which seems to confirm that idea
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2076 08 to 2080 33 That puts ES back below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish again
Dollar index At least I got the dollar right on Monday as it gained 0 33 It has now retraced exactly 50 of last Thursday s giant dump Fibonacci technicians take note Indicators are only just recently off of oversold and the stochastic is now starting to curve around for a bullish crossover So with a small gap up lopsided red spinning top this one is still kind of up in the air I won t call it tonight
Euro I was right about the euro too which descended on Monday for its second losing day in a row this time back down to 1 0847 as it continues to retrace last Thursday s big pop Indicators have now come off of overbought and the stochastic is just now completing a bearish crossover So with the euro continuing lower in the overnight this chart just looks lower again which would make three in a row on Tuesday
Transportation And finally I blew my forecast for the trans too On Monday it did not go higher instead it lost 0 88 giving up all of Friday s gains and then some Indicators remain oversold and the stochastic is now threaded out having failed to execute a bullish crossover We re back to the lower BB and there is some significant support right here around 7886 But whether or not the trans can capitalize on this remains to be seen
Tonight we have a number of bearish reversal signs on the charts along with plenty of evidence of strong resistance blocking any further advance And the futures are guiding non trivially lower so I m going to go ahead and call Tuesday lower
Single Stock Trader
Last night I expressed skepticism that Verizon could rise much further on Monday And it managed a 0 35 gain which is all the more impressive considering it was one of only a handful of winners on an otherwise down day That brought it up to its upper BB on a small green marubozu Indicators are now just shy of overbought so it s not clear if VZ is going to just bounce off the BB or start crawling up it We need some confirmation for this on Tuesday In the meantime it s not a swing trade buy |
VZ | Stock Market Forecast Wednesday Higher | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday higher
ES pivot 2063 50 Breaking above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ not a swing trade buy
Mr Market sometimes goes through phases of obsessive compulsive behavior where he gets fixated on just one single factor and starts to ignore everything else This is one of those phases and Mr M s latest obsession is the price of oil And with oil of course in a deep and continuing funk it s not looking good But let s look at the charts anyway and see if there s any light at the end of this particular tunnel
The technicals
The Dow The Dow has tracked oil perfectly for the last four days in a row down up down down And Tuesday was down big time off nearly a full percent It did however conduct a successful retest of its 200 day MA stopping exactly at that level by the bell That leaves us with two hanging man style candles or is the second one a hammer Hard to tell and the indicators are also confused wandering around halfway between overbought and oversold The stochastic though remains in bullish mode So go figure Right now I d kind of expect support at the MA to hold on Wednesday but that s by no means certain It will all depend on where oil goes For some unknown reason
The VIX Well the VIX sure fooled me on Tuesday After failing to break its 200 day MA on Monday I expected it to move lower on Tuesday But that clearly didn t happen as the VIX didn t even bother with its 200 MA it simply gapped right over it for an 11 jump with a tall doji star That left the indicators just short of overbought but it also looks like two thirds of a bearish evening star And that sadly requires confirmation on Wednesday
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 12 39 AM EST with ES up 0 22 At least I got this much right After looking bearish last night ES had a terrible day on Tuesday to close right back down to 2059 However it conducted a successful retest of its 200 day MA the third in four days Indicators continue to wander around halfway between overbought and oversold so there s little guidance there But the new overnight seems to be staging something of a non trivial rally so there s at least a suggestion here that Wednesday might be higher
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2080 33 to 2063 50 That puts ES exactly on top of its new pivot so this indicator is neutral at the moment
Dollar index The dollar looked too difficult for me to call last night but after Tuesday s action it s looking a little more clear And what it looks like is a bearish evening star as the dollar lost 0 2 on a small red candle That kept indicators moving lower but it also caused a bullish stochastic crossover So unfortunately with conflicting indicators it is once again too difficult to call this chart for Wednesday though the bias seems continued lower
Euro The euro fooled me last night because it did not move lower on Tuesday instead rallying back up to 1 0889 for a classic bullish engulfing pattern against Monday s candle But the indicators all remain overbought and the euro seems to be establishing a new trading range in the 1 09 area so this chart is too tough for me tonight
Transportation Last night I noticed some support for the trans around 7886 Too bad the trans didn t notice that themselves because they massively underperformed the Dow on Tuesday with a giant 2 81 plunge that gapped right under support to head all the way down to the next level of support at 7663 The trans are starting to become something of a concern from a Dow Theoretical point of view as they have been massively underperforming the Dow for some time now With a tall red marubozu that also punched right down through the lower BB on Tuesday and indicators that are still only just barely oversold and with further support not until 7465 its difficult to make a bullish case for the trans at all at this point
Withe the VIX possibly looking to be topping the Dow sitting on some decent support and the futures guiding higher I m going to dispense with the hand wringing and just call Wednesday higher
Single Stock Trader
Last night I mentioned the possibility of Verizon bouncing off its upper BB to move lower on Tuesday and that s just what happened with a 0 78 decline That was enough to send all the indicators lower just before reaching overbought and left VZ with a doji star That leaves this chart a bit confused for Wednesday but one thing is clear this is not a swing trade buy |
XOM | U S foreign chief Tillerson arrives in Gulf for talks on Qatar crisis | By Jonathan Landay and Tom Finn ISTANBUL DOHA Reuters U S Secretary of State Rex Tillerson arrived in Kuwait on Monday for talks aimed at resolving the crisis triggered by the the cutoff of links with Qatar by Saudi Arabia and Arab allies allies In Doha a Western diplomat said creation of a terror finance monitoring mechanism would feature in the talks but declined to elaborate Saudi Arabia Bahrain UAE and Egypt imposed sanctions last month accusing Doha of aiding terrorism something it denies The State Department said Tillerson who forged extensive ties in the Gulf as CEO of ExxonMobil NYSE XOM would hold talks with leaders in Kuwait Qatar and Saudi Arabia He was flying from Istanbul where he attended an international petroleum conference R C Hammond a senior adviser to Tillerson said he would explore ways to end a stalemate following Qatar s rejection of 13 demands issued as condition for ending sanctions The trips to Saudi Arabia and Qatar are about the art of the possible said Hammond who added that the 13 demands are done and are not worth revisiting as a package Individually there are things in there that could work The demands included the closing of Al Jazeera the Qatar based pan Arab television network and a Turkish military base in Qatar Saudi Arabia and its backers which accuse Al Jazeera of being a platform for extremists and an agent of interference in their affairs have threatened further sanctions against the emirate Al Jazeera denies the allegations Riyadh and its allies accuse Qatar of financing extremist groups and allying with Iran the Gulf Arab states regional rival Qatar denies that it supports militant organizations and many experts see the blockade as an attempt by Saudi Arabia to rein in Qatar s increasingly independent foreign policy TWO WAY STREET The crisis has hit travel food imports to Qatar ratcheted up tensions in the Gulf and sown confusion among businesses while pushing Qatar closer to Iran and Turkey which have offered support The United States worries the crisis could affect its military and counter terrorism operations and increase the regional influence of Tehran which has been supporting Qatar by allowing it to use air and sea links through its territory Qatar hosts Udeid Air Base the largest U S military facility in the Middle East from which U S led coalition aircraft stage sorties against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq U S President Donald Trump has expressed support for Saudi Arabia in the dispute Hammond said it was critical that not only Qatar but Riyadh and its allies take steps to halt any financial support flowing to extremists groups especially following the defeat of Islamic State in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul It s a two way street he said There are no clean hands here We want progress on terrorism financing The president strongly believes that if you cut off financing you cut off the ability of terror to take hold in new areas Hammond said
Moreover he said the longer that this struggle is in place the more opportunity there is for Iran |
XOM | Exxon upgraded at Barclays as stock likely has bottomed out | Exxon Mobil XOM 0 4 is a bit higher after a Barclays LON BARC upgrade to Overweight from Equal Weight with a 94 price target citing the stock s recent underperformance vs peers and the company s leading near term position in the low commodity price environment The high 70s to low 80s recent share price range reflects a durable support level from a fundamental and technical perspective Barclays says Looking at XOM s share price vs net asset value Barclays believes the stock is at its cheapest relative position to its peer group since the oil price downturn began in 2014 The firm also notes that XOM s current dividend yield is more than 1 8x above the S P 500 s yield which happened only in 5 of trading days during the past 26 years during these occurrences it says XOM and the energy sector outperformed the S P by escalating magnitudes over the next one three and 12 month periods Now read |
XOM | Exxon enforcement of Venezuela award voided by U S appeals court | A U S appeals court says Exxon Mobil XOM 0 2 cannot enforce a 1 6B international arbitration award against Venezuela related to a 2007 asset seizure The appeals court says a lower court judge incorrectly excused XOM from complying with procedural requirements to enforce the 2014 award which was made by the World Bank s panel on investment disputes The court says XOM should seek enforcement in compliance with the U S Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act Now read |
XOM | Exxon blocked from enforcing Venezuela arbitration award U S appeals court | By Jonathan Stempel NEW YORK Reuters A U S appeals court said on Tuesday that Exxon Mobil Corp N XOM cannot enforce a large international arbitration award against Venezuela stemming from an asset seizure in 2007 when the country was nationalizing its oil industry The 2nd U S Circuit Court of Appeals in Manhattan said a lower court judge erred in entering a judgment to enforce the 1 6 billion award since reduced to about 188 million announced in October 2014 by the World Bank s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes ICSID It agreed with Venezuela s argument which the U S government supported that Exxon should have tried to enforce the award under the federal Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act FSIA which offers more protections for sovereign defendants rather than be permitted to use streamlined procedures Applying the FSIA will facilitate national uniformity in procedure Circuit Judge Susan Carney wrote Consistency as to enforcement seems to us importantly aligned with the values of predictability and federal control that foreign affairs demands and that the FSIA was designed to promote Exxon spokesman Todd Spitler said the Irving Texas based oil company disagreed with the 3 0 decision and is considering its legal options Venezuela and its U S based lawyers did not immediately respond to requests for comment The case arose from Venezuela s seizure of Exxon assets in the Cerro Negro and La Ceiba oil development ventures when the country was nationalizing its oil industry Exxon had made its investments on a joint venture basis with the state owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA According to court papers an ICSID annulment committee on March 9 threw out nearly all of the arbitration award that concerned the Cerro Negro project reducing Venezuela s payout to 188 3 million from 1 6 billion Tuesday s decision voids a 2015 judgment by U S District Judge Paul Engelmayer in Manhattan The appeals court also said Exxon s petition should be dismissed without prejudice allowing the company to seek enforcement in compliance with the FSIA
The case is Mobil Cerro Negro Ltd et al v Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela 2nd U S Circuit Court of Appeals No 15 707 |
XOM | Critics argue for Groningen shutdown at Dutch court hearing | Angry Dutch residents living near the huge Groningen gas field told a hearing today at the Netherlands highest court that production should be totally stopped accusing oil companies of causing minor earthquakes and the government of lying The Council of State is holding two days of hearings to consider appeals against a government plan to cut production at the field by an additional 10 starting Oct 1 Gas production company NAM a joint venture between Royal Dutch Shell LON RDSa RDS A RDS B and Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM has accepted responsibility for damage caused by the quakes for which it is paying more than 1B NAM argues against the cut to 21 6B cm year down from 53 9B cm as recently as 2013 saying the decision ignored earlier agreed safety norms Now read |
CSCO | Cisco CSCO Narrowly Beats Q3 Earnings Revenue Estimates | Cisco Systems Inc NASDAQ CSCO just released its third quarter fiscal 2018 financial results posting adjusted earnings of 0 66 per share and revenues of 12 46 billion
Cisco is currently a Zacks Rank 2 Buy which is subject to change based on today s results Shares of Cisco are up nearly 32 over the last year The company s stock price did dip 0 70 on Wednesday to hit 45 16 per share prior to the release of its quarterly earnings results
Cisco stock is currently down 3 32 to 43 66 in after hours trading shortly after its earnings report was released
CSCO
Beat earnings estimates The company posted adjusted earnings of 0 66 per share beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 0 65 per share
Beat revenue estimates The company saw revenue figures of 12 46 billion just topping our consensus estimate of 12 42 billion
Cisco saw its quarterly revenues climb by roughly 4 from 11 94 billion in the year ago period Meanwhile the company s earnings surged 10 from 0 60 per share
Looking ahead Cisco expects to post adjusted fourth quarter earnings between 0 68 and 0 70 per share which falls in line with our current Q4 estimate of 0 68 per share The company also expects its Q4 revenues will climb between 4 and 6 Our current estimate is calling for revenues to pop by 4 75 to hit 12 71 billion
Here s a graph that looks at CSCO s Price Consensus and EPS Surprise history Cisco Systems Inc Price Consensus and EPS Surprise Check back later for our full analysis on CSCO s earnings report
Today s Stocks from Zacks Hottest StrategiesIt s hard to believe even for us at Zacks But while the market gained 21 9 in 2017 our top stock picking screens have returned 115 0 109 3 104 9 98 6 and 67 1 And this outperformance has not just been a recent phenomenon Over the years it has been remarkably consistent From 2000 2017 the composite yearly average gain for these strategies has beaten the market more than 19X over Maybe even more remarkable is the fact that we re willing to share their latest stocks with you without cost or obligation |
CSCO | Chart Of The Day Is Cisco s Earnings Downtrend About To End | Cisco Systems NASDAQ CSCO is slated to release corporate results for Q3 2018 today after the market close Eight Zacks Investment Research analysts forecast that the networking and IT products giant will show EPS of 0 59 EPS up from the 0 54 EPS it posted for the same quarter last year
For Cisco 2017 was a good year Even as growth stagnated the company increased its value by more than 25 Although growth this year declined to 20 percent that s still significantly better than the NASDAQ Composite s relatively paltry 6 45 percent or even the NASDAQ 100 s 7 75 percent gain YTD
After the first revenue growth in the last quarter should Cisco s revenue guidance of 3 percent YoY materialize bringing that metric to just under 12 billion it would break the company s revenue downtrend seen over the last two years
Stocks are an economic leading indicator Cisco shares last week recorded their highest close since the 2000 tech bubble 46 30 only 7 cents below the session high of 46 37 registered that same day
Any stock that escaped the recent volatility unscathed demonstrates that its shareholders are loyal It also indicates the stock could potentially withstand future swings in the future
This is important Future stock market volatility is likely as geopolitics take surprising turns and economic data signal conflicting messages about rates against the backdrop of the highest US yields since 2011
In the four sessions that followed Cisco s highest close since the 2000 tech bubble the stock corrected 2 75 percent as of yesterday s intraday low However the price rebounded and closed only 2 00 percent lower than last week s record
This higher close formed a Hammer demonstrating that bulls had the last word The proximity to the uptrend line since the beginning of April underscores the uptrend suggesting an ideal entry for a long position if traders can disregard the geopolitics and rising yields as they mostly have done thus far In any case that s why equity management is key for consistent trading success
Trading Strategies Long Position Setup
Conservative traders may wait for a higher peak to confirm that prices may continue to rise despite geopolitics and the sudden renewed of 3 more rate hikes this year
Moderate traders would be satisfied with a higher close than yesterday
Aggressive traders may enter now providing they can afford a stop loss below the uptrend line at 44 7 per the current angle or the presumed support at the 44 00 congestion alternatively they may wait for a buying dip toward these levels
Equity Management
Traders are advised against entering trades with less than a 1 3 risk reward ratio To achieve this work out your risk based on the stop loss and potential reward based on your target relative to your entry price
Example
Entry 45 00
Stop loss 44 50
Risk 0 50 target must be at least 1 50 to achieve 1 3 RRR
Target 46 50
Reward 1 50
Risk Reward Ratio 1 3 |
CSCO | Trade Desk Scotts Miracle Gro And Cisco Systems Highlighted As Zacks Bull And Bear Of The Day | For Immediate ReleaseChicago IL May 17 2018 highlights The Trade Desk NASDAQ TTD as the Bull of the Day Scotts Miracle Gro Co NYSE SMG as the Bear of the Day In addition Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on Cisco Systems Inc NASDAQ CSCO Here is a synopsis of all three stocks Trading publicly since 2016 The Trade Desk is a company that specializes in programmatic advertising It utilizes a self service cloud based computer platform where ad buyers create manage and optimize data driven digital advertising campaigns these campaigns include display video audio native and social all across a multitude of devices like computers cell phones and connected TV The Trade Desk is headquartered in Ventura CA and operates primarily in the U S Europe and Asia Blowout Earnings Send Shares SoaringThe Trade Desk absolutely crushed estimates across the board for its fiscal 2018 first quarter Revenues surged 61 year over year hitting 86 million and soaring way past the consensus estimate of 73 million Adjusted income came in at 15 3 million which produced earnings of 34 cents per share handily beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 10 cents per share The company noted that much of this quarter s growth came from its key divisions mobile video connected TV and audio In particular growth in mobile video was up 160 year over year and mobile in app revenue grew 110 while connected TV ads skyrocketed 2 000 Additionally customer retention rates were above 95 for the 18th consecutive quarter As a result TTD stock rallied well over 46 or up around 24 clearly suggesting investors loved this report Raised GuidanceThe Trade Desk increased its 2018 full year outlook and is now expecting revenues of at least 433 million with adjusted EBITDA of 133 million Both figures are up 40 year over year from fiscal 2017 levels As for Q2 the company anticipates revenue of 103 million and adjusted EBITDA of 30 million Earnings OutlookFor TTD its bottom line is trending upward for the foreseeable future While earnings are expected to decline about 17 3 for the current quarter five analysts have revised estimates upwards recently none have cut their outlook for the period during the same time period The Zacks consensus has moved seven cents higher in the past 60 days Fiscal 2018 figures are looking pretty great with five upwards estimates in the past two months The Zacks consensus estimate trend has jumped from 1 67 per share to 1 97 per share Analysts are feeling optimistic for fiscal 2019 as well with five moving their estimate higher in the last 60 days Known for its popular lawn and garden care products Scotts Miracle Gro Co is one of the most recognized names in the gardening industry Its U S brands include Scotts Miracle Gro Ortho and Smith Hawken The company s customers are wide ranging from home improvement centers and hardware chains to nurseries and specialty crop growers Over the years Scotts has been making a name for itself in the marijuana industry It has been developing potting soil specifically for growing marijuana as well as acquiring key hydroponics companies Disappointing Q2 ResultsThe Zacks Rank 5 Strong Sell stock reported second quarter fiscal 2018 results a couple of weeks ago and both earnings and revenues missed our consensus estimate EPS was 2 88 per share falling way behind the Zacks Consensus of 3 42 per share Revenues fell 7 year over year to 1 01 billion while U S Consumer segment sales were down 6 and Hawthorne segment sales were down 29 to 41 8 million The decline in revenues was primarily due to a delayed start to the lawn and garden season in the U S after a long winter CEO Jim Hagedorn also noted that consumer purchases entering May are down double digits from a year ago but in markets like California and Florida consumer purchases were in line with last year s results Company wide gross margin declined 240 basis points to 40 4 Earnings OutlookEstimates took a hit in the days following the report For the current quarter two analysts cut their outlook in the last 60 days and the consensus has dipped nine cents from 2 77 to 2 98 per share Earnings are only expected to grow around 1 9 for the quarter Five analysts have revised their estimates downward for the current fiscal year and earnings are projected to increase a minimal 1 The consensus has decreased from 4 68 to 3 98 per share Looking at the next fiscal year earnings could grow about 20 and the current consensus sits at 4 80 per share Can SMG Stock Turn Around Shares of Scotts Miracle Gro are down 18 so far this year and have slipped about 2 in the past year Compared to the S P 500 the index has gained 1 9 and 15 6 respectively The company is currently trading at a forward P E of 21 2X Additional content Cisco Narrowly Beats Q3 Earnings Revenue EstimatesCisco Systems Inc just released its third quarter fiscal 2018 financial results posting adjusted earnings of 0 66 per share and revenues of 12 46 billion Cisco is currently a Zacks Rank 2 Buy which is subject to change based on today s results Shares of Cisco are up nearly 32 over the last year The company s stock price did dip 0 70 on Wednesday to hit 45 16 per share prior to the release of its quarterly earnings results Cisco stock is currently down 3 32 to 43 66 in after hours trading shortly after its earnings report was released CSCO Beat earnings estimates The company posted adjusted earnings of 0 66 per share beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 0 65 per share Beat revenue estimates The company saw revenue figures of 12 46 billion just topping our consensus estimate of 12 42 billion Cisco saw its quarterly revenues climb by roughly 4 from 11 94 billion in the year ago period Meanwhile the company s earnings surged 10 from 0 60 per share Looking ahead Cisco expects to post adjusted fourth quarter earnings between 0 68 and 0 70 per share which falls in line with our current Q4 estimate of 0 68 per share The company also expects its Q4 revenues will climb between 4 and 6 Our current estimate is calling for revenues to pop by 4 75 to hit 12 71 billion Here s a graph that looks at CSCO s Price Consensus and EPS Surprise history Check back later for our full analysis on CSCO s earnings report Today s Stocks from Zacks Hottest StrategiesIt s hard to believe even for us at Zacks But while the market gained 21 9 in 2017 our top stock picking screens have returned 115 0 109 3 104 9 98 6 and 67 1 And this outperformance has not just been a recent phenomenon Over the years it has been remarkably consistent From 2000 2017 the composite yearly average gain for these strategies has beaten the market more than 19X over Maybe even more remarkable is the fact that we re willing to share their latest stocks with you without cost or obligation About the Bull and Bear of the DayEvery day the analysts at Zacks Equity Research select two stocks that are likely to outperform Bull or underperform Bear the markets over the next 3 6 months About Zacks Equity ResearchZacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long term Continuous analyst coverage is provided for a universe of 1 150 publicly traded stocks Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance Recommendations and target prices are six month time horizons Strong Stocks that Should Be in the NewsMany are little publicized and fly under the Wall Street radar They re virtually unknown to the general public Yet today s 220 Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buys were generated by the stock picking system that has nearly tripled the market from 1988 through 2015 Its average gain has been a stellar 26 per year Follow us on Twitter Join us on Facebook NASDAQ FB Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities including a broker dealer and an investment adviser which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates Media ContactZacks Investment Research800 767 3771 ext 9339Zacks com provides investment resources and informs you of these resources which you may choose to use in making your own investment decisions Zacks is providing information on this resource to you subject to the Zacks Terms and Conditions of Service disclaimer Past performance is no guarantee of future results Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment legal accounting or tax advice or a recommendation to buy sell or hold a security No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor It should not be assumed that any investments in securities companies sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking market making or asset management activities of any securities These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks The S P 500 is an unmanaged index Visit for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release |
CSCO | Intraday Examination Cisco Treasurys S P Nasdaq | One of the few big companies left to report earnings was Cisco It doesn t look like the market is taking the news especially well There was a time in history around 2000 such a drop would guarantee a huge down day tomorrow Errr not so much anymore Cisco isn t the largest company on the planet like it used to be Indeed no one gives a crap anymore Not one crap
My huzzah moment today was how the fight back on bonds got smushed You can see how bonds tried to rally green tint but it flopped over and ended at the lows of the day Yay
This pattern fits within the broader context of the daily chart below Indeed the fractal is pretty amazing
As for equities in general meh It seems like we can t get more than one stinking down day anymore We had a little dip yesterday but lo and behold we had to flip it right around Wednesday Quite annoying We need to hold below 2750 on the ES to keep me and the other two bears on the planet from going suicidal
Likewise the NASDAQ needs to stay below the peak it made on Monday
Generally speaking it s far more important for me to see bonds continue to weaken than it is for the likes of the NASDAQ to behave itself but I gotta tell ya it sure would help if the red numbers were a little more consistent among all the asset classes |
CSCO | Cisco Down Despite Upbeat Q3 Earnings | American technology company Cisco Systems NASDAQ CSCO shares fell more than 4 during the after hours trading on Wednesday despite a better than expected quarterly earnings report that exceeded estimates
The company posted a weak guidance for its upcoming fiscal fourth quarter report According to Cisco the company expects earnings of around 68 to 70 cents per share as well as a revenue growth of 4 to 6
Fiscal Q3 Results
For the quarter that ended on April 28 Cisco posted earnings of 0 66 per share beating analyst estimates of 0 65 per share in earnings Cisco s revenue came in at 12 46 billion for the quarter also exceeding analyst forecasts of 12 43 billion
Majority of the company s revenue is still comprised of its hardware business which has shown a sales growth only during the two out of nine previous quarterly earnings report Cisco chief executive officer Chuck Robbins has extended his efforts in making the company depend less on the market for expensive equipment through the company being able to make its own hardware as well as being able to sell more networking services as well as software
Currently Cisco has increased its networking gear spending which is currently keeping the company s main business up which would allow more time for the company to increase its backlog of deferred software as well as translate its revenue into more sustained sales growth
Robbins also added that this strategy which was created three years ago is working and that the company is pleased with their recent actions and steps The new business model is expected to deliver faster revenue growth for the company as it makes more progress into switching its customers from traditional switching and routing to software products
During the previous quarter Cisco shares also rose in February when the company posted its fiscal second quarter earnings results with their earnings coming in at 0 63 per share compared to analyst expectations of 0 59 per share while their revenue came in at 11 89 billion compared to analyst expectations of 11 81 billion
The company remains optimistic on demand globally as they had been for a long time according to Robbins The company also expects another period of sales growth However most analysts and investors have forecasted a higher growth number from the company in the coming months
While Cisco remained optimistic regarding the demand a weak demand has been seen from video service provider customers as well as routers which required machines to connect networks to each other and is not currently expected in the current period according to Cisco chief financial officer Kelly Kramer during the conference call |
XOM | Exxon Declares Completion Of Two Polyethylene Lines In Texas | ExxonMobil Corporation s NYSE XOM subsidiary company ExxonMobil Chemical Company announced the mechanical completion of two new 650 000 tons per year high performance polyethylene lines at its plastics plant in Mont Belvieu TX The company anticipates production to commence during the third quarter of 2017 The project forms part of the ExxonMobil s 20 billion Growing the Gulf expansion initiative and is also part of multi billion dollar expansion project in the Baytown area It is one of the 11 projects the company announced as part of its 10 year initiative in the Baytown expansion Projects planned or under way are expected to create over 35 000 construction jobs and in excess 12 000 full time jobs The polyethylene lines will process ethylene feedstock from the new steam cracker currently under construction at the Baytown complex This project facilitates ExxonMobil Chemical to economically deliver a rapidly growing demand for high value polyethylene products These high performance products provide sustainability benefits such as lighter packaging weight lower energy consumption and reduced emissions The finished polyethylene product will be distributed to customers worldwide ExxonMobil has the first mover advantage by completing the polyethylene project that is driven by the shale gas revolution The project is expected to double the plant s production capacity ExxonMobil s investments are likely to fuel economic growth and create jobs along with expansion of existing refining and chemical capacity However ExxonMobil s share price chart is unimpressive Shares of the company have gained 1 5 in the last three months while the Zacks categorized industry registered an increase of 2 6 ExxonMobil currently has a Zacks Rank 3 Hold Some better ranked stocks from the same space include SunCoke Energy Inc NYSE SXC Exterran Corp NYSE EXTN and Canadian Natural Resources Limited Ltd TO CNQ All these stocks sport a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy You can see SunCoke Energy posted a positive earnings surprise of 120 0 in the preceding quarter The company beat estimates in two of the four trailing quarters with average negative earnings surprise of 35 78 Exterran posted a positive earnings surprise of 123 21 in the year ago quarter Canadian Natural Resources posted a positive earnings surprise of 30 77 in the preceding quarter It surpassed estimates in two of the four trailing quarters with average negative earnings surprise of 275 46 Zacks 2017 IPO Watch ListBefore looking into the stocks mentioned above you may want to get a head start on potential tech IPOs that are popping up on Zacks radar Imagine being in the first wave of investors to jump on a company with almost unlimited growth potential This Special Report gives you the current scoop on 5 that may go public at any time One has driven from 0 to a 68 billion valuation in 8 years Four others are a little less obvious but already show jaw dropping growth |
XOM | The Commodity Cycle What It Means For Precious Metals Prices | The cycle for any commodity follows the same basic pattern
When prices are low production falls As new supplies diminish the market tightens and prices move higher The higher prices incentivize producers to invest in production capacity and increase output Eventually the market becomes oversupplied prices fall and the cycle starts all over again
Of course this is a simplified model of what drives commodity cycles Booms and busts can be amplified and extended by speculators by unexpected shifts in demand or even by interventions from central banks and governments
Regardless of the causes commodity markets will always be cyclical in nature Commodities as a group can be pressured upward or downward by extrinsic forces such as monetary inflation or credit contraction
However any individual commodity whether oil corn copper gold silver platinum or palladium may be in its own particular stage within the commodity cycle at any given time
As a resource investor it s important to have some idea of whether you re investing in a commodity at a time in the cycle when it s favorable to do so Some technical analysts ascribe four year cycles to some markets longer duration cycles to others and shorter term cycles that operate within longer term cycles The reality is that cycles can t be counted on to run their course within any prescribed time frame
There are historical patterns and tendencies to be sure Gold for example tends to be less correlated to swings in the economy than oil and industrial commodities Gold can remain in a major trend for years or even decades
Gold prices crashed from 850 oz in 1980 to 300 oz in 1982 It wasn t until 2002 that gold crossed above the 300 level for the final time The new gold bull market rose out of a 20 year base and reached a cyclical high of 1 900 in 2011 A four year downturn followed and since 2016 a new cyclical upturn appears to be taking shape
Diminishing Supply Phase
Chart reading is always a tenuous undertaking but when combined with supply and demand fundamentals it can help investors identify favorable times to be a buyer or seller Right now it appears that gold silver oil and other commodities are transitioning one by one into a period in the commodity cycle of diminishing supply
In the case of crude oil which is the most economically important and most widely followed commodity the major story line in recent months has been a supply glut
North American shale production has swelled inventories in the U S But oil prices have been quietly advancing
What does the market know that isn t showing up in all the seemingly bearish headlines for oil The longer term supply outlook actually augers for shortfalls and much higher prices According to the International Energy Agency IEA new oil discoveries in 2016 sunk to their lowest number in decades
The oil industry slashed spending on developing new supplies in response to low prices ExxonMobil NYSE XOM for one cut its capital expenditures by 26 10 billion in 2016
The IEA warns that in order to offset recent declines and meet rising global demand the oil industry needs to develop 18 billion new barrels every year between 2017 and 2025 Oil s recent price range in the mid 40s to mid 50s per barrel doesn t seem to be incentivizing the necessary new production capacity Higher prices appear to be in store over the next few years
Mining Energy Intensive Business
Higher energy costs would mean higher production costs for the gold and silver mining industry Mines are already having to process more and more tons of earth to extract ounces of valuable metals
According to metals analyst Steve St Angelo The global silver mining industry will continue to process more ore to produce the same or less silver in the future While the cost of energy has declined over the past few years falling ore grades will continue to put pressure on the silver mining industry going forward
Physical precious metals are in a very real sense a form of stored energy Think of all the energy inputs required to move the earth to separate relatively tiny quantities of precious metals from tons upon tons of rock and dirt to refine the raw ore into pure gold silver platinum or palladium and finally to mint the precious metal into bullion products
All those energy inputs are represented in the value that markets impute to precious metals Trends in prices will reflect trends in production costs And production costs will rise as it becomes harder and more energy intensive to mine metals
A position in physical gold and silver should be viewed as a core long term holding However there are some times in the commodity cycle that are more favorable than others for buying
There are times when you may even want to sell a portion of your position Right now the cycle appears to be in the early stages of turning bullish for commodity prices making it a favorable time to be taking out long positions in hard assets
Originally Published on Money Metals Exchange
About the Author Stefan Gleason is President of Money Metals Exchange the national precious metals company named 2015 Dealer of the Year in the United States by an independent global ratings group A graduate of the University of Florida Gleason is a seasoned business leader investor political strategist and grassroots activist Gleason has frequently appeared on national television networks such as CNN FoxNews and CNBC and his writings have appeared in hundreds of publications such as the Wall Street Journal Detroit News Washington Times and National Review |
XOM | Exxon Mobil TOTAL Show Interest In Greece Exploration Sites | Greece recently received expression of interest from a consortium comprising Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE XOM TOTAL SA NYSE TOT and Hellenic Petroleum for the exploration of oil and gas at two resources located offshore the island of Crete What s the Exploration Plan About Owing to an extended phase of financial crisis Greece is presently encouraging energy companies to exploit its resources for more oil and gas findings Significant discoveries of gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean also encouraged the nation to launch the exploration program Last week Greece s energy minister organized a meeting with the representatives of Exxon Mobil and TOTAL for discussing prospective opportunities of exploration and production within the country If exploitable and commercial resources are discovered Greece will support the exploration of the same as per Efstathios Tsotsoros chairperson of Hellenic Petroleum How Will the Plan Benefit Tsotsoros added that development in this front will definitely prove beneficial for the nation in terms of overall economic growth and position in the geopolitical space Also such activities will boost the upstream businesses of Exxon Mobil and TOTAL given that oil has recovered from the historical lows of last February Both the companies have the scope to sell the commodity at escalated prices and hence might be able to drive returns for shareholders Brief Note on the CompaniesIrving TX based Exxon Mobil is the world s largest publicly traded oil company with upstream midstream and downstream operations With a stable cash position the company s balance sheet is one of the strongest in the industry However the one year price chart shows that the company has underperformed the Zacks categorized industry During the period the company lost 9 8 as against the 3 6 gain of the broader industry France based TOTAL is among the top five publicly traded global integrated oil and gas companies in terms of production volumes proved reserves and market capitalization The company also belonging to Oil Gas International Integrated industry has rallied 10 2 over the last one year On the flip side a significant portion of TOTAL s production growth over the last few years has come from asset acquisitions exposing it to acquisition related risks Zacks Rank Key PicksBoth ExxonMobil and TOTAL carry a Zacks Rank 3 Hold Meanwhile better ranked players in the energy sector include Canadian Natural Resources Limited TO CNQ and McDermott International Inc NYSE MDR Both the stocks sport a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy You can see For Canadian Natural we expect year over year earnings growth of around 720 for 2017 McDermott beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters with an average positive surprise of 387 50 Will You Make a Fortune on the Shift to Electric Cars Here s another stock idea to consider Much like petroleum 150 years ago lithium power may soon shake the world creating millionaires and reshaping geo politics Soon electric vehicles EVs may be cheaper than gas guzzlers Some are already reaching 265 miles on a single charge With battery prices plummeting and charging stations set to multiply one company stands out as the 1 stock to buy according to Zacks research It s not the one you think |
XOM | Pound Left Poll Dancing | Sterling clearly remains poll sensitive
Yesterday the pound suffered another day in the demonic washing machine that is UK politics as the losses inspired by the YouGov projections of a hung parliament were reversed on yet another poll showing the Conservatives with a strong lead This time Panelbase put Theresa May a solid 15 points ahead of Jeremy Corbyn but at this point analysing averaging and compounding this polling appears to be worse than useless Pollster s failure to cast a light on both the 2015 election as well as the EU referendum has already got most analysts redirecting emails with poll in the title directly to their junk folders
Despite this sterling remained on the front foot for much of the session with GBP USD reclaiming 1 29 in a timely fashion but these gains have moderated overnight back toward 1 2850 at the time of writing All it really proves is that the pound will remain responsive and sensitive to political news for the remainder of this week and much of the next until the voters tick a box that goes beyond an opinion poll
My postal vote arrived yesterday and so will that of around 20 of the UK voting public and as such we re approaching the point at which undecideds will fall in line and campaigning becomes more a point of reinforcing views and not changing them
Trump poised to splinter from the UN on climate change agreement
Trump s split with the G7 at the weekend troubled many particularly his frosty reception of the Paris Accord the 2015 United Nations deal to launch a global response to climate change and the emission of greenhouse gases Trump has indicated that he is to withdraw the United States from the Paris Accord joining just Syria and Nicaragua in that elite club
Domestic backlash is inevitable the Paris Accord is one of very few issues in the United States that polls positively in literally every state across the country It even has support from the country s and one of the world s largest oil and gas producer ExxonMobil NYSE XOM so his announcement at 1500 Washington time 2000 BST will be carefully watched
The day ahead
For the UK manufacturing PMI due at 0930 BST is the highlight with the Eurozone s numbers crossing the wires throughout the morning In the US ADP Employment Change is due at 1315 BST which will certainly be eyed ahead of the nonfarm payrolls reading tomorrow |
VZ | Going Out On A Limb To Call Monday Higher | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Monday higher
ES pivot 2090 08 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap
I have to admit I m a bit surprised by Friday s action in the market I figured for sure there would be a strong reaction one way or the other after the jobs numbers came out But instead what we got was a tiny move higher in the Dow and an even smaller move lower in the SPX All in all it was a big nothing Let s take a look now to see if we can t get a bit more direction as to where this coming week is headed
The technicals
The Dow After a fat spinning top reversal candle last Wednesday and a doji star immediately following on Thursday it s no wonder I called Friday uncertain And as it turned out what we got was another reversal candle this one a green hanging man Indicators remain just barely overbought and the Dow itself is just hanging by a thread on the very edge of its latest rising RTC The rest of the indicators though have begun moving lower so it s not at all clear which way this one s going on Monday
The VIX Last Friday made it 12 in a row that the VIX has been stuck in a consolidation range This time it fell nearly 5 after Thursday s inverted hammer that just touched its 200 day MA And it gave us a second inverted hammer It also just squeaked out a bearish stochastic crossover So that gives us two contradictory reversal warnings with one higher one lower but given recent history my guess is that there s only a small bit of downside left available perhaps down to 14
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 12 23 AM EST with ES up 0 10 ES has been having trouble getting it together for the last three days We had a fat spinning top on Wednesday followed by a doji star somewhat lower on Thursday followed by another doji lower again on Friday With four days of lower highs and lower lows it s not looking so hot Indicators are now off of overbought but still a long way from oversold The new overnight is also sitting right on the edge of the latest month long rising RTC so it is now do or die time for ES At the moment the Sunday overnight looks only mildly encouraging but we ll have to see what happens on Monday I m not convinced
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2094 25 to 2090 08 That now leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator flips back to bullish
Dollar index I didn t call the dollar last Thursday night for Friday and it s just as well because I sure wasn t expecting a gigantic 1 23 gap up rocket all the way back to its upper BB at 66 46 Recall that this is on the USD UPX not the DXY since those cheapskates at eSignal want to charge me extra for the latter and even this giant pop was only enough to send the indicators barely overbought And the stochastic is nowhere near even starting to put in a bearish crossover What we do have is a an inverted hammer and a giant yawning gap that begs filling so we ll be watching this one to see if the dollar does any retracing any time soon as it seems ripe for that right now
Euro And of course similarly on Friday the euro took another big leg down this time to close at 1 0 750 breaking support all the way back to the middle of July It also just touched its lower BB but we are now clearly in a month long downtrend here and although the indicators have now gone oversold again there is really no sign at the moment is that the euro could close higher on Monday
Transportation On Friday the trans outperformed the Dow with a 0 75 percent gain that sent the indicators overbought and brought the trans right back to resistance at 8241 Still that was enough to break out of their latest short descending RTC so with a confirmed reversal candle and all the indicators rising there are really no bearish signs on this chart tonight
There are a few positive signs in the charts tonight particularly with the VIX which seems like it could fall a bit more and the futures which seem to be forming a bullish stochastic crossover at the moment So I m going to go way out on a limb and call Monday higher
Single Stock Trader
It seems like ages since I called a swing trade buy for Verizon And indeed on Friday it just kept going lower with a gap down red hammer for a nearly 1 loss to make it five lower in a row That also left it right on the edge of its rising RTC and indicators continue to fall from overbought towards oversold but they aren t there yet At least the stochastic has finally begun to curve around for a bullish crossover but it s not there yet either So what we have here is a reversal warning but one which requires confirmation so this stock is still not a swing trade buy |
VZ | Tuesday Higher Only If ES Breaks Above New Pivot By Mid Morning | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday higher only if ES breaks above its new pivot else lower
ES pivot 2077 58 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ still not a swing trade buy
Well I guess all the signs were there last night but I chose to ignore them preferring instead to go out on a limb with a call for Monday higher And as it turns out the limb snapped out from under me as the Dow dropped 180 points on a tall red candle This is one of those days I wish I could take back but I can t Part of trading is being wrong sometimes So let s simply dust off and move on to Tuesday
The technicals
The Dow On Monday the Dow suffered its biggest loss in nearly a month with an exactly 1 decline This took it clear out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup Meanwhile the indicators have now fallen off of overbought and are heading towards oversold but they re not there yet and with Monday s confirmation of last Friday s hanging man this chart just looks bearish for Tuesday
The VIX I also missed the VIX last night I figured it was going to go check out the bottom end of its recent trading range on Monday but instead it just rocketed right off with a giant 15 28 pop that blasted it right through its 200 day MA at 16 33 to finish just above there at 16 52 That at least finally takes it out of its two week long noodling around area and the MA cross is always bullish Indicators continue to rise but have not yet hit overbought so overall this chart looks higher again on Tuesday
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 12 15 AM EST with ES up 0 21 On Monday ES ignored not one but two reversal warnings in the form of doji stars Instead of moving higher it crashed right back down to 2073 on a tall red candle That at least sent all the indicators falling off of overbought and headed towards oversold although they re a long way from there It also dropped out of its latest rising RTC for a bearish setup And with essentially no follow through in the overnight it s still too soon to call and move higher for ES on Tuesday
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2090 08 to 2077 58 That leaves ES sitting barely under its new pivot so tonight this indicator is only nominally bearish and essentially neutral
Dollar index At least I was right about the dollar not being able to make any further headway on Monday as it did fall 019 on a small red spinning top It wasn t classic but one could still call this a bearish evening star Indicators have also now hit extreme overbought levels with RSI just under 92 The stochastic is now threaded out at overbought and has lost its predictive powers So with a still considerable gap remaining below here further downside is possible but with a reversal candle in place again we need to wait for confirmation on Tuesday
Euro After last Friday s big decline I was skeptical about the euro s ability to close any higher on Monday And that turned out to be about right as all it was able to manage was 1 0762 on its smallest range day since I don t know when That leaves all the indicators still oversold and nothing much to go on in technical terms Even the new overnight isn t doing much of anything so I really don t have anything to say about this chart for Tuesday Hey it happens sometimes
Transportation On Monday the trans put in quite a different candle from the Dow While they did fall 0 32 it was on a wide ranging long legged doji that sent the indicators falling after having only just barely hit overbought This is a good reversal candle but one which requires confirmation so I m not making any guesses about the trans for Tuesday here
Tonight the crystal ball is a bit cloudy as we have some reversal signs but they all require confirmation The best indication we ve got right now is ES which is moving higher and forming a bullish piercing pattern though you can t read too much into a half baked candle So with no great clarity and ES bumping along just under its pivot I m going to make a conditional call if ES can break above its pivot by mid morning Tuesday we ll close higher On the other hand if it stays below or rises above but falls back then we close lower
Single Stock Trader
At least I m glad that last night I refrained from calling Verizon higher Monday on the basis of a tall hammer candle Good thing too because VZ got caught up in the general carnage on Monday with a 1 05 drop that took it out of its latest rising RTC for a bearish setup and also sent the indicators oversold We now have a second hammer in a row but all the factors in play last night remain in play as Verizon is going inverse exponential on us This will eventually end with a nice gain but once again we require some confirmation This is one falling knife I don t feel like catching at the moment |
VZ | Out On A Limb To Call Wednesday Higher | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday higher
ES pivot 2073 83 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ still not a swing trade buy
Tuesday ended mixed with the Dow up but the Nasdaq down and took my conditional call with it that was a total flop Oh well it doesn t always work What we got was pretty much another Day of Nothing So let s go to the charts and see if there might not be some more interesting action coming on Wednesday
The technicals
The Dow The bears were unable to make any further headway on Tuesday as the Dow managed to gain 0 16 and preserve support around the 17 717 level The indicators are now mixed with money flow and the stochastic falling while momentum and RSI rise and OBV goes nowhere The resulting candle was clearly a green hammer so there s at least a sign of a reversal here but it s one which requires confirmation on Wednesday
The VIX I clearly missed the VIX last night when I said it would go higher because on Tuesday it instead dropped another seven and a half percent giving up all of Monday s gains and then some for a bearish engulfing pattern that also dropped right back through its 200 day MA another bearish sign With indicators now falling my guess has to be that the VIX moves lower again on Wednesday
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 12 13 AM EST with ES up 0 10 Technically ES didn t look all that strong last night so I was a bit surprised to see it put in a green hammer to close back up to 2078 on Tuesday Interestingly the indicators continue to fall and have now hit oversold There is now a slight suggestion of a move higher but there doesn t seem to be much interest in the overnight to confirm that so once again I have to defer on this chart and await confirmation on Wednesday
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2077 58 to 2073 83 That puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator turns right back to bullish
Dollar index And last night the dollar was another one of these indeterminate charts that I didn t want to call That is also just as well because despite the yawning gap beneath it wanting filling and what looked like an imminent bearish evening star the dollar instead gapped higher on Tuesday with a non trivial 0 32 gain But even this was on a red spinning top the second in a row and the fourth reversal warning candle in a row So with a dollar now back to levels not seen since last April and despite indicators that are now highly overbought it s not at all clear when it may start moving lower So I m just not calling this chart either tonight
Euro And last night the euro was yet another chart I didn t want to call for Tuesday And that was also wise because after putting in what looked like a bullish piercing pattern on Tuesday it just kept going lower closing this time down to 1 0711 its lowest close since April 15th So that leaves us tonight with a chart that s now in a month long downtrend and the lower BB falling away While the indicators are now highly oversold there is still no reversal sign in sight on this chart
Transportation I didn t want to call the trans last night after a long legged doji star and it was just as well because on Tuesday they put in a second even tighter star that resulted in a tiny 0 03 gain All of which leaves us pretty much in the same spot we were last night indecision abounds and there s no way to call this chart
It may be incautious of me as there s still a fair bit of uncertainty in the charts tonight but we do have some reversal signs along with a promising VIX and futures turning positive so I m going right back out on a limb and calling Wednesday higher
Single Stock Trader
Last night I called Verizon a falling knife and this was pretty much the textbook definition of that as VZ put in a third hanging man reversal warning in a row and yet it just keeps going lower finishing this time off another almost half a percent The indicators at least have now gone to extreme oversold levels with RSI hitting 3 15 and the stochastic lying flat on the floor But once again we have merely a reversal warning and no confirmation so it is too early to call Verizon higher although at this level it has started to become interesting |
VZ | If ES Breaks Above New Pivot By Mid Morning Thursday Higher | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday higher only if ES breaks above its pivot else lower
ES pivot 2074 67 Holding below is bearish
Friday bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ now a speculative swing trade buy
These small movement days are difficult to call and Wednesday was no exception I was wrong once again because the Dow did not rise instead it fell 56 points And on top of that it s time for another Night Owl Lite because I just plain ran out of time today to put together the usual post and so I will simply present the conclusions without all of the yakking For all the good it s done lately this will probably be just as well
The technicals
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2073 83 to 2074 67 That till leaves ES below its new pivot but just barely So this indicator turns nominally bearish but it is definitely in play tonight
There has been little direction to the markets the past two days However tonight ES appears to be finding some support as it puts in a bullish piercing pattern On the other hand the VIX is doing the same The cautious thing to do here is simply call Thursday uncertain but I m going to try another conditional call if ES can break above its new pivot by mid morning Thursday we ll close higher If it remains below though we close lower
Single Stock Trader
After putting in a hammer last Friday Verizon put in a second one on Monday and followed that with a third one on Tuesday each one lower than the one before Wednesday was the first day that Verizon actually posted a gain snapping a seven day losing streak This was significant because it s also the first confirmation of any of these hammers we ve seen and also one that broke out of the steep descending RTC for a bullish setup It also sent the indicators rising from extreme oversold levels and that puts us very close to the kind of swing trade buy that I m looking for The only thing that doesn t make this a 100 trade is the fact that we had a narrow spinning top on Wednesday instead of an outright bullish candle But I will nevertheless bless this now as a buy for the adventurous |
VZ | Friday Stock Market Forecast VZ Not A Swing Trade Buy | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Friday lower
ES pivot 2074 67 Holding below is bearish
Next week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ not a swing trade buy
Recap
Last night s conditional call for Thursday worked as expected ES made a brief and fruitless attempt to break above its pivot just after 3 AM but it was all downhill from there as it closed on session lows And as a result the rest of the market closed lower too Tonight once again we re going to have another Night Owl Lite because that annoying thing called Real Life TM interfered with my favorite hobby and I didn t have enough time to prepare the usual post But we should still have some sort of idea of where Friday is headed
The technicals
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot dives from 2074 67 to 2052 50 ES remains well beneath its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish
On Thursday the Dow and the SPX both ominously fell through their respective 200 day MA s The VIX also jumped right through its own 200 day MA in the other direction None of that is any good for the market And to make matters worse right now oil seems to be in the driver s seat again as it seems intent on retesting the August lows There are certainly no bullish signs on that chart Or any other chart that I can see tonight So I guess I ll just have to call Friday lower I ll be happy to be proven wrong That s all she barely managed to write See you again Sunday night
Single Stock Trader
Last night I called Verizon Communications Inc N VZ a speculative buy on the basis of a hammer followed by a rising spinning top its first in quite a while But on Thursday VZ got caught up in the general downtrend and fell another percent That cancels everything nice I had to say about it last night and leaves the indicators wandering around at highly oversold levels With a new red marubozu on the books the current pattern looks more like a bearish evening star than a bullish morning star We also fell right back into that descending RTC so this stock is no longer any kind of a buy and if anything looks more like a short |
VZ | After Disappointing End To Down Week Calling Monday Lower | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Monday lower
ES pivot 2025 33 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader N VZ not a swing trade buy
Last Thursday night I noted that the charts were looking pretty grim and indeed on Friday the Dow plunged another 203 points You can blame the price of oil China whatever but it was a disappointing end to a down week Let s move on ahead to Monday now and see if we can recover some of those losses on this last week before the big Thanksgiving holiday coming right up
The technicals
The Dow The Dow s 1 16 dump on Friday extended a week long decline into an inverse exponential rundown We confirmed the 200 day MA break as the Dow continues heading down towards its lower BB now not that far away at 17 146 Indicators have now gone to extreme oversold levels but the stochastic is not quite ready to come around for a bullish crossover yet So with a second tall red marubozu in the books there is still not a bullish reversal sign on this chart
The VIX After blasting through its 200 day MA on Thursday the VIX rose another 9 31 on Friday for three white soldiers It is now climbing up its upper BB and starting to look a little overextended to me I often note that the VIX rarely spends more than a day or two at elevated levels after it touches its upper BB and we ve been there for 2 days now However indicators are only moderately overbought at this point and we do not yet have a reversal candle here So while I think the VIX is due to come down to earth sometime this week it s not clear that that is going to happen on Monday
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 59 AM EST with ES down 0 47 After punching down through its 200 day MA last Thursday ES confirmed that bearish sign on Friday with another tall red candle That almost touched its lower BB Now in the Sunday overnight ES actually did test the lower BB at 2006 and for the time being that looks like a success Indicators are now at extreme oversold levels and we are getting a nice gap down green hammer candle With ES having fallen three in a row in what looks like an inverse exponential and the stochastic curving around nicely in preparation for a bullish crossover this chart has all the makings for putting in a bottom on Monday
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot dives again from 2052 50 to 2025 33 That still leaves ES considerably below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish
Dollar index Lately the dollar has been getting jerked around every which way After what had the makings of a bearish evening star last week and a tall red candle on Thursday instead of moving lower on Friday it actually gained 0 39 on a bullish inside harami However the indicators remain just barely overbought and the stochastic is now in full on bearish crossover mode So this chart is something of a conundrum for Monday
Euro And of course it s about the same deal with the euro After looking like it was going to start a nice rally in the middle of last week on Thursday it suddenly reversed course with a tall bearish engulfing candle And so far in the Sunday overnight it looks like that s being confirmed as the euro is moving down another 0 2 But the indicators are now oversold and the candle for now anyway looks like a hammer So with some decent support around 1 07 this chart looks like it might have more upside potential than downside risk from here
Transportation On Friday the trans made it down three in a row on an inverted red hammer but this one found support right on its lower BB The indicators are now also oversold although the stochastic has yet to begin curving around for a bullish crossover So we have a reversal warning in place and it looks to me like the trans are ready to move higher sometime soon but it s not clear that will happen on Monday
The charts are starting to show some decent reversal signs However I think that s all pretty much moot in view of the barbarian attacks in Paris this weekend I think the market is going to use that as an excuse to do some more selling and that seems to be supported by the futures running lower by half a percent in the overnight So I m just going to call Monday lower and keep my fingers crossed
Single Stock Trader
Last Thursday night I called Verizon more of a short than a buy for Friday and that s exactly what happened as it had an absolutely horrible day losing 1 34 for its worst performance in 10 sessions and making it eight out of 10 down now The good news is that it finally hit its lower BB and the indicators are all at extreme oversold levels At this point it will be interesting to see if it can manage to bounce off the lower BB or if it starts to dribble down it There s no real support until 43 51 but because it s been knocked down so hard over the past two weeks there may come a point soon possibly this week where all the selling is exhausted In the meantime it s still not my favorite swing trade buy setup |
VZ | With Bullish Engulfing Candles Galore Calling Tuesday Higher | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday higher
ES pivot 2032 50 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader N VZ not a swing trade buy
Recap
Well that was certainly interesting The market completely fooled me on Monday and I m sure more than a few others too by not dropping at all in the wake of the weekend barbarian attacks in Paris With the future guiding substantially lower Sunday night and considering the fact that past similar attacks have led to market selloffs I don t think it was unreasonable to expect a decline on Monday What we got instead changes the picture so we have some most curious charts to look at tonight
The technicals
The Dow On Monday the Dow put in a canonical bullish engulfing pattern much to my surprise And I was even more surprised at the extent of the gain with a 238 point jump that was its best performance in nearly a month It was also enough to send the indicators off of oversold and complete a bullish stochastic crossover That leaves nothing bearish at all about this chart tonight
The VIX And in perfect mirror image fashion on Monday the VIX put in a bearish engulfing pattern with a nearly 10 drop That was enough to send it over off of overbought levels and also form a bearish stochastic crossover So just as the Dow now looks bullish the VIX looks correspondingly bearish
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 12 14 AM EST with ES up 0 18 What a difference a day makes After looking decidedly negative at this time last night on Monday ES roared back with a giant bullish engulfing candle that was stopped only by its 200 day MA at 2049 And while that still leaves the indicators oversold it also completed a bullish stochastic crossover In any case it looks like the latest descending RTC may very well be over and there s certainly nothing bearish about this chart tonight It remains to be seen if ES can punch through the 200 MA on Tuesday But judging by how much gas is in the tank I wouldn t be surprised to see that happen
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2025 33 to 2032 50 That leaves ES well above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish
Dollar index And also on Monday the dollar put in an exceptional chart of its own with a 0 45 gain that broke monthly resistance for its highest close since April 13th That also sent the indicators back overbought and caused the stochastic to curve around for a bullish crossover As an aside it s interesting that further dollar strength may delay the widely anticipated Fed rate hike next month which would be something a delay that is I would definitely applaud
Euro And after a very tall bearish engulfing candle last Friday on Monday the euro confirmed that with an equally tall red candle that closed right back down to 1 0681 its lowest close since April 15th And although the indicators remain oversold the stochastic has now formed a bearish crossover from a low level Those are often good for another day or two of lower prices and a move lower in the overnight seems to be confirming that idea
Transportation After a dreadful week last week culminating with three black crows that took it right down to its lower BB on Monday the trans put in a textbook perfect green hammer With the indicators now oversold and the stochastic curving around nicely in preparation for a bullish crossover this looks like an excellent buying opportunity in the trans for Tuesday
With bullish engulfing candles galore on the charts tonight and with ES having just reclaimed its 200 day MA the only logical call I can make is for Tuesday higher
Single Stock Trader
Like most everything else on Monday Verizon had an excellent day with a nearly 2 pop that bounced it right off its lower BB That sent the indicators off of oversold and formed a bullish stochastic crossover It also pushed it out of its long running descending RTC for a bullish crossover Therefore this chart looks nothing but bullish for Tuesday And while it s not a classic swing buy for me I think its not a bad entry point right here |
VZ | Given Overall Contradictory Signals Calling Wednesday Uncertain | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday uncertain
ES pivot 2051 33 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader N VZ no longer a swing trade buy
On Tuesday the markets tried to keep the momentum going from Monday s rally but it eventually fizzled out as both the Dow and the SPX were unable to move past their respective 200 day MAs which now serve as resistance Does this mean Monday s action was just a one off or are we simply pausing for a new attempt on the MA Let s look at the charts and see what they have to say
The technicals
The Dow It was a real squeaker on Tuesday as the Dow moved higher nicely in the morning but then spent the rest of day giving it all back We did manage a meager six and a half point gain but the 200 day MA proved too tough to crack and left us with a long legged doji star Indicators remain oversold though and we still have a fresh bullish stochastic in place so while we now have a reversal warning this is one that is going to require confirmation on Wednesday
The VIX On Tuesday the VIX rejected Monday s nice bearish engulfing pattern by gaining 3 74 instead on a green spinning top However the indicators continue to be overbought and the stochastic has just completed a bearish crossover So that all leave this one kind of up in the air as we now have a reversal warning higher but one that requires confirmation on Wednesday
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 1 01 AM EST with ES down 0 12 On Tuesday ES did manage a small gain on top of Monday s big rally but once again it was stymied by the 200 day MA and closed just below it at 2049 Indicators are now off of oversold and all rising towards overbought The new overnight is forming something of a fat spinning top for what that s worth Overall this doesn t look very positive for Wednesday but it s hardly conclusive at this point
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2032 50 to 2051 33 That move was enough to put ES back below its new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish again
Dollar index Last night I noted some strength in the dollar and that was born out on Tuesday as the dollar advanced another 0 16 That marks its best close since April 13th Indicators remain overbought but the stochastic has now formed a bullish crossover from a high level and those are often good for another day or two of higher prices So with three white soldiers on the books now it s entirely possible the dollar could move higher again on Wednesday
Euro Last night I called the euro lower and indeed that is exactly what happened on Tuesday as it sank back down to 1 0652 its lowest close since April 14th Even at that the indicators are only just barely oversold and the stochastic continues to sink with no bullish crossover in sight We now have three black crows on the books and no sign that the latest downtrend is over
Transportation After putting in a tall green hammer on Monday on Tuesday the trans put in an equally tall doji star sitting right at the top of Monday s close Indicators remain highly oversold though and the stochastic has just completed a bullish crossover so while we do we have a reversal indicator it is a weak one and overall it looks like this chart might just go higher again on Wednesday
On Tuesday we simultaneously hit a number of resistance lines on different charts and also got some reversal signs that require confirmation Given the overall contradictory signals I m just going to have to call Wednesday uncertain
Single Stock Trader
Last night I thought Verizon could move higher again on Tuesday and it did though not by much And the resulting candle was a lopsided spinning top which is something of a reversal warning But with the indicators still only just recently off oversold and a fresh bullish stochastic crossover in place it s too early to give up on this trade just yet It may be too late to get in but I d wait at least one more day to see where this goes on Wednesday If it looks like it s rolling over early on then it s probably not worth holding on to |
VZ | Thursday Higher | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday higher
ES pivot 2068 42 Holding above is bullish
Friday bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader VZ not a swing trade buy
Wednesday morning Mr Market must have been anticipating the Fed minutes at 2 PM because the Dow pretty much just rose all day with the gains accelerating after the announcement It could have gone either way and that probably would account for all the uncertainty in the charts on Tuesday So with that out of the way let s move on to Friday I will just add that with Thanksgiving next week I m planning on taking the entire week off I m not looking for much action in the markets then anyway and it will be nice to take a break
The technicals
The Dow Last night I mentioned that Tuesday s pause might just be the Dow gathering steam for another attack on its 200 day MA and I was reluctant to call it lower on the basis of a doji star On Wednesday the reversal warning was disconfirmed in a big way as the Dow had an excellent day gaining 1 42 on a tall green marubozu that absolutely blasted right through the MA to close back to 17 737 That was enough to take the indicators off of oversold and they are now all rising towards overbought So this chart now simply looks continued bullish for Thursday
The VIX On Tuesday the VIX put in a stubby green spinning top as a bullish piercing pattern But that all went by the wayside on Wednesday as the VIX gave it all back with a nearly 11 decline and is now hovering just above its 200 day MA at 15 87 Indicators remain just barely overbought and are now all headed lower along with a nicely completed bearish stochastic crossover So it definitely looks to me like the VIX may be interested in taking a look at the MA on Thursday In any event this chart does not look bullish to me tonight
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 12 12 AM EST with ES up 0 13 Last night ES was the picture of indecision with a doji star sitting right below its 200 day MA Well on Wednesday it picked up where it left off and put it in a giant green candle that vaulted it right over that MA and also out of its latest descending RTC for a bullish setup Indicators continue to rise but have not yet hit overbought and the overnight seems to be guiding higher once again So there s absolutely no bearish signs at all on this chart right now
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2051 33 to 2068 42 That s enough to place ES well above its new pivot so this indicator flips right back to bullish again
Dollar index And on Wednesday the dollar also rejected Tuesday s inverted hammer by gaining another 0 05 on a lopsided green spinning top Indicators are now just short of overbought and the bullish stochastic crossover from a high level I noted yesterday is now confirmed So there s no real bearish signs on this chart but we do have a reversal warning and that requires confirmation on Thursday
Euro Meanwhile the euro kept falling in a month long descending RTC on Wednesday closing this time at 1 0650 its lowest close since April 13th However we now have a doji star reversal warning and the indicators are now rising off of oversold Also the stochastic has just formed a bullish crossover and the overnight is rising strongly suggesting that the euro is going to close higher on Thursday
Transportation And finally similar to the other charts on Wednesday the Trans disconfirmed Tuesday s doji reversal sign with a big 1 65 green marubozu that left the indicators rising off of oversold Resistance is still not until 8242 so there s still a bit of room to run higher and there s nothing bearish at all about this chart tonight
After a nice rally it s tempting to think the market may want to take a pause but with indicators still generally only just off oversold and some strong 200 day MA crossings in the Dow and the SPX and with the futures guiding higher I think it just makes more sense to go ahead and call Thursday higher
Single Stock Trader
The Dow was all green on Wednesday but Verizon N VZ was one of the weaker players putting in a classic hanging man for a small gain Indicators continue to rise though but have not yet reached overbought So with the indicators halfway between oversold and overbought and a reversal candle that requires confirmation I don t have much to say about this chart tonight In any case it is not a swing trade buy setup |
XOM | Vietnam renews India oil deal in tense South China Sea | By Mai Nguyen Nidhi Verma and Sanjeev Miglani HANOI NEW DELHI Reuters Vietnam has extended an Indian oil concession in the South China Sea and begun drilling in another area it disputes with China in moves that could heighten tensions over who owns what in the vital maritime region The moves come at a delicate time in Beijing s relations with Vietnam which claims parts of the sea and India which recently sent warships to monitor the Malacca Straits through which most of China s energy supplies and trade passes Vietnam granted Indian oil firm ONGC Videsh a two year extension to explore oil block 128 in a letter that arrived earlier this week the state run company s managing director Narendra K Verma told Reuters Part of that block is in the U shaped nine dash line which marks the vast area that China claims in the sea a route for more than 5 trillion in trade each year in which the Philippines Brunei Malaysia and Taiwan also have claims A senior official of ONGC Videsh who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter said interest in the block was strategic rather than commercial given that oil development there was seen as high risk with only moderate potential Vietnam also wants us to be there because of China s interventions in the South China Sea the official said Vietnam s state run PetroVietnam declined to comment on the concession which was first granted to India in 2006 but had been due to expire in mid June Conflicting territorial claims over the sea stretch back many decades but have intensified in recent years as China and its rivals have reinforced their positions on the rocks and reefs they hold Far to the south of block 128 drilling has begun in a block owned jointly by Vietnam s state oil firm Spain s Repsol MC REP and Mubadala Development Co MUDEV UL of the United Arab Emirates Deepsea Metro I operated by Odfjell Drilling Ltd has been drilling in the region since the middle of last month on behalf of Spain s Repsol SA which also has rights to neighboring block 07 03 Odfjell said Odfjell declined to comment on the specific location of its vessel but shipping data from Thomson Reuters Eikon showed it was in oil block 136 3 which also overlaps China s claims Odfjell s Eirik Knudsen V ice President for Corporate Finance and Investor Relations referred further queries to Repsol which declined to comment PetroVietnam made no comment COMPETING MARITIME CLAIMS When asked about the activity Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said China opposes anyone carrying out unilateral illegal oil and gas activities in waters China has jurisdiction over We hope the relevant country can act on the basis of maintaining regional peace and stability and not do anything to complicate the situation he told a briefing in Beijing Chinese General Fan Changlong cut short a visit to Vietnam and a friendship meeting at the China Vietnam border was canceled around the time the drilling began The centuries old mistrust between China and Vietnam is nowhere more evident than in their competing maritime claims despite their shared communist ideology and growing trade Asked about the most recent drilling Vietnamese officials said their Chinese counterparts have started raising concerns about cooperation with both Repsol and ExxonMobil NYSE XOM Corp of the United States which is developing the 10 billion Blue Whale gas concession off central Vietnam They said Chinese officials also expressed concern at Vietnam s evolving security relationships with the United States and Japan both of which have offered moral support for its South China Sea claims and help for Vietnam s coastguard Tensions with China were being contained however and had not yet reached crisis proportions they said We know they are unhappy again but we are resisting the pressure it is a traditional part of our relations with Beijing one official said privately Other parts of the relationship remain strong Underlining the relationship between India and Vietnam Vietnamese deputy prime minister Pham Binh Minh told a forum in New Delhi this week that India was welcome to play a bigger role in Southeast Asia and specifically the South China Sea Hanoi s growing defense and commercial ties with India are part of its strategy of seeking many partnerships with big powers while avoiding formal military alliances The pace has picked up since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi s administration took office in 2014 and sought to push back against China s expanding presence in South Asia by raising its diplomatic and military engagement in Southeast Asia India is providing naval patrol boats satellite cover to monitor Vietnam s waters and training for its submarines and fighter pilots more military support than it is giving to any other Southeast Asian country On the agenda are transfers of naval vessels and missiles under a 500 million defense credit line announced last year
Next week the navies of India the United States and Japan will hold their largest joint exercises in the Bay of Bengal |
XOM | Exxon cut to Sector Perform at RBC as positives already priced in | Exxon Mobil XOM 0 8 is downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform with a 95 price target at RBC Capital which says XOM s differentiated downstream positioning generates a significant portion of its free cash flow but already is reflected in the stock s valuation RBC says XOM has sported consistent best in class execution and generated superior returns through the cycle which should continue going forward largely driven by the downstream but this is reflected in its valuation relative to peers Also XOM s stock price target is cut to 82 from 90 at Wells Fargo NYSE WFC to reflect the firm s revised commodity price outlook Now read |
XOM | Vote counting begins in Papua New Guinea amid electoral roll confusion | By Ben Cooper SYDNEY Reuters Vote counting has begun in Papua New Guinea PNG signaling an end to a general election marred by poor organization and opposition accusations of electoral roll irregularities which experts said could ignite protests Voting was set to finish across the country on Saturday but with a large number of people unable to cast ballots due to out of date electoral rolls and logistical problems ballot boxes were still open in some provinces on Sunday Tension in PNG has been high for months amid a groundswell of unrest following allegations of corruption against Prime Minister Peter O Neill The frustration among voters unable to cast ballots could trigger new unrest analysts said There s always some degree of violence and malfeasance in a PNG election however no one expected the electoral roll to be this bad Jonathan Pryke director of the Lowy Institute of Policy s Melanesia Unit told Reuters In June 2016 a student protest turned violent when police opened fire injuring dozens International observers said the use of an electoral roll from 2012 polls meant many people in highland regions in particular were denied the chance to vote Sam Basil leader of the junior opposition Pangu Party told Reuters 9 000 voters in his constituency of Bulolo on the north coast of the main island had been unable to cast ballots because of irregularities He said polling was expected to finish across PNG on Monday Observers expect a tight race between O Neil s party and that of his main rival former Treasurer Patrick Pruaitch Whoever wins faces a difficult economic outlook with a budget deficit that has ballooned in recent years amid a slump in oil and gas prices A 2016 drought crippled farming and brought production at its largest copper mine to a halt by cutting off river transport and therefore fuel supplies Moody s downgraded PNG s credit rating to B2 in April last year reflecting balance of payments pressures that have been compounded by the slump in global commodity prices Despite its mineral wealth which includes Exxon NYSE XOM Mobil s 20 billion LNG plant most of the country s nearly eight million people live at subsistence level on islands atolls and in remote mountain village |
XOM | U S s Tillerson praises Turkish courage during coup attempt | ISTANBUL Reuters U S Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Sunday praised the courage of the Turkish people in defending democracy from an attempted coup almost exactly a year ago although he made no mention of the widespread crackdown that has followed Speaking at the opening ceremony of an oil conference in Istanbul where he received an award recognizing his four decades of work in the industry Tillerson also said the United States saw Turkey as a partner in its push for greater energy security in the region We re all here in Istanbul at a momentous time Nearly a year ago the Turkish people brave men and women stood up against coup plotters and defended their democracy Tillerson said I take this moment to recognize their courage and honor the victims of the events of July 15 2016 A group of rogue soldiers commandeered tanks helicopters and warplanes on the night of July 15 attacking parliament and seizing control of roads and bridges in an effort to overthrow the government The putsch failed when thousands of Turks took to the streets in protest answering a call from President Tayyip Erdogan to resist the coup More than 240 people many of them civilians died that night Since the failed coup more than 100 000 people have been sacked or suspended from their work in the civil service police military and private sector and some 40 000 people jailed The government says such efforts are needed given the scope of the security threat it faces Rights groups and some Western governments say that Turkey is using the coup as a pretext to quash dissent and on Sunday hundreds of thousands of people attended an opposition rally in Istanbul Tillerson who was previously the head of Exxon Mobil Corp NYSE XOM arrived in Turkey on Sunday evening and was due to meet Erdogan later on Sunday according to Erdogan s office Ankara had high hopes for the administration of President Donald Trump after relations with Washington soured under former President Barack Obama
However Erdogan has been angered by Trump s decision to arm a Syrian Kurdish militia in the fight against Islamic State in northern Syria Turkey sees the Kurdish fighters as a terrorist group and worries their advance in Syria would inflame a Kurdish insurgency at home |
XOM | Two senior Republican senators criticize Tillerson comments on Russia | By Valerie Volcovici
WASHINGTON Reuters Two senior Republican U S senators criticized Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Sunday for saying that Russia may have the right approach on Syria and for what they called his lack of focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan
His statements about Syria really disturb me No Russian President Vladimir Putin does not have it right when it comes to Syria Senator Lindsey Graham said
In separate television interviews Graham and Senator John McCain prominent Republican foreign policy voices took aim at Tillerson s remarks last week that Russia may have got the right approach and the United States the wrong approach to Syria
Russia has backed President Bashar al Assad in Syria s civil war while the United States supports rebel groups trying to overthrow him
McCain told CBS Face the Nation that he sometimes regretted backing Tillerson s nomination by Republican President Donald Trump and that his comments on Russia being right on Syria made him emotional and upset
I know what the slaughter has been like I know that the Russians knew that Bashar Assad was going to use chemical weapons And to say that maybe we ve got the wrong approach he said
Both senators backed the nomination of Tillerson in January even while expressing concern about his dealings with Russia when he was chief executive of ExxonMobil N XOM
Graham who visited Afghanistan and Pakistan last week with McCain accused Tillerson of being AWOL on the two countries and failing to fill key State Department posts
I am so worried about the State Department Graham said on NBC s Meet the Press
A State Department official responded to the criticism of Tillerson by saying that a U S Russian brokered ceasefire for southwest Syria was an example of what the secretary had described as the potential to coordinate with Russia in spite of unresolved differences to produce stability and serve our mutual security interests
The official who did not want to be identified also said the State Department was taking an active role in a review of Afghanistan and Pakistan policy and continued to work with the White House on nominations
Since the exit of most foreign troops in 2014 Afghanistan s U S backed government has lost ground to a Taliban insurgency in a war that kills and maims thousands of civilians each year |
XOM | After Iran move Total seen in pole position to snap up Qatar gas deals | By Tom Finn Ron Bousso and Dmitry Zhdannikov DOHA LONDON Reuters Total is well placed to take a lead role in helping Qatar expand output from the world s largest gas field largely thanks to its involvement in the Iranian side of the shared deposit two sources familiar with Doha s thinking said That puts the French oil major ahead of rivals like Exxon and Shell LON RDSa in the early running for developing the expansion which the tiny Gulf state announced as it seeks to counter growing isolation caused by a regional diplomatic rift Total boss Patrick Pouyanne signed a deal this month to develop the South Pars field as Iran s part of the shared reserves are known becoming the first oil major to return to the country since the lifting of sanctions As he was ironing out details of that agreement he was careful to keep Qatar in the loop Of course I won t go to the same field in Iran without telling Qatar Pouyanne told Reuters The Iranian block where we are supposed to produce is next to the border with Qatar When I traveled to Doha I discussed it with the Qatari authorities and they told us It is ok we know you Pouyanne says Total strictly respects confidentiality of data vis vis each country The executive s cross border strategy however appears to be paying early dividends I would expect Total to be in the strongest position for the new Qatari project because of the political issues at play and their recent deals in Iran s South Pars one senior Gulf energy source said On one level working with both countries who share a prized gas asset seems obvious But it is not without risks for Total Saudi Arabia the United Arab Emirates Bahrain and Egypt have imposed political and economic sanctions on Qatar demanding that it stops fostering terrorism and courting Iran Riyadh s main rival Qatar denies the accusations Besides Iran and Qatar Total also has large projects in Saudi Arabia and the UAE highlighting the complexity of investing in the Middle East COST SAVINGS POSSIBLE Qatar already the world s largest liquefied gas exporter lifted a self imposed ban on development of the North Field in April and last week it said it would raise gas output capacity by around 30 percent to 100 billion cubic meters The move was widely seen as a show of strength in its dispute with Gulf neighbors and Egypt Qatar has built its gas export power over the past decade with support from global oil majors including ExxonMobil NYSE XOM Total and Royal Dutch Shell The projects have generated billions of dollars for Qatar and its Western partners and the planned expansion to its gas capacity would make Qatar even more dominant in the gas market accounting for a third of current global LNG output Sources told Reuters earlier this month that Exxon Shell and Total have all expressed interest in helping Qatar expand its gas facilities with top executives traveling to Doha in recent weeks even after a spike in political tensions Exxon Shell and Total declined to comment on plans to participate in Qatar s tenders to expand gas capacity which are yet to be announced and will take several years to complete Even without those tenders Total s role in Qatar is set to grow significantly after it won a 30 percent stake in 2016 in a new 25 year contract to operate its largest offshore Al Shaheen oilfield Total which will take over the field operation from Maersk Oil on July 14 plans to invest 2 billion in expanding the field over the next five years With Qatar s gas production costs among the lowest in the world being a part of any expansion would give Total a strategic advantage over rivals in the fast growing global LNG market Total s involvement in fields on both sides of the Qatari Iranian border may also help save on costs and service contracts as well as better understand the fields geology although Pouyanne said there was no mechanism to coordinate production jointly by the countries The development of the new capacity over the next 5 7 years could cost between 14 18 billion according to consultant Wood Mackenzie
Qatar may also be keen to show it is still open for business despite the current diplomatic disputes with some of its Gulf neighbors it said |
XOM | Reuters Total in strongest position help Qatar expand natural gas output | Total TOT 0 6 is in a strong position to take a lead role in helping Qatar expand production from the South Pars gas field the world s largest largely because of its involvement in the Iranian side of the shared deposit Reuters reports citing sources familiar with the government s thinking TOT s signing last week to develop the South Pars field as Iran s part of the shared reserves are known makes the company the first oil major to return to Iran since the easing of western sanctions and places it ahead of rivals such as Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM and Royal Dutch Shell LON RDSa RDS A RDS B in the early running for developing the expansion TOT CEO Patrick Pouyanne tells Reuters Of course I won t go to the same field in Iran without telling Qatar The Iranian block where we are supposed to produce is next to the border with Qatar When I traveled to Doha I discussed it with the Qatari authorities and they told us It is OK we know you Now read |
CSCO | Has Cisco Systems CSCO Outpaced Other Computer And Technology Stocks This Year | Investors focused on the Computer and Technology space have likely heard of Cisco Systems NASDAQ CSCO but is the stock performing well in comparison to the rest of its sector peers One simple way to answer this question is to take a look at the year to date performance of CSCO and the rest of the Computer and Technology group s stocks
Cisco Systems is a member of our Computer and Technology group which includes 635 different companies and currently sits at 6 in the Zacks Sector Rank The Zacks Sector Rank includes 16 different groups and is listed in order from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors
The Zacks Rank emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find stocks with improving earnings outlooks This system has a long record of success and these stocks tend to be on track to beat the market over the next one to three months CSCO is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of 2 Buy
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CSCO s full year earnings has moved 5 01 higher within the past quarter This means that analyst sentiment is stronger and the stock s earnings outlook is improving
Our latest available data shows that CSCO has returned about 18 28 since the start of the calendar year In comparison Computer and Technology companies have returned an average of 3 23 This shows that Cisco Systems is outperforming its peers so far this year
Breaking things down more CSCO is a member of the Computer Networking industry which includes 10 individual companies and currently sits at 174 in the Zacks Industry Rank Stocks in this group have gained about 18 78 so far this year so CSCO is slightly underperforming its industry this group in terms of year to date returns
CSCO will likely be looking to continue its solid performance so investors interested Computer and Technology stocks should continue to pay close attention to the company |
XOM | Exxon Mobil XOM To Foray Into The Mexican Fuel Market | Energy giant Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE XOM recently announced its intention to enter the retail fuel market of Mexico To this end the company is likely to spend almost 300 million over the next 10 years The integrated energy company is anticipated to launch its first fuel service station in central Mexico under the brand name Mobil in the second half of 2017 With this development motorists in the country will now be able to avail Exxon Mobil s high grade Synergy gasoline and diesel fuels The event signifies the opening of Mexico s closed retail sales market after Pemex lost its monopoly following the reforms in 2013 Investors should know that Exxon Mobil is expected to become the second foreign company to foray into the Mexican fuel market after BP Plc NYSE BP which launched its first station in the country this March According to media releases Royal Dutch Shell LON RDSa plc too is likely to enter the country in 2017 We appreciate Exxon Mobil s business move as Mexico is the second largest economy in Latin America and its gasoline market is the fourth largest in the world Irving TX based Exxon Mobil is the world s largest publicly traded oil company with upstream midstream and downstream operations The company s earnings surprise history is impressive It surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters with an average positive earnings surprise of 1 46 However Exxon Mobil s price chart shows significant weaknesses Year to date the company s stock lost 9 1 as against only 4 decline for the Zacks categorized industry As a result the company carries a Zacks Rank 3 Hold A better ranked player in the energy sector is Canadian Natural Resources Limited TO CNQ Canadian Natural sports a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy You can see We expect year over year earnings growth for Canadian Natural to be 720 for the current year Will You Make a Fortune on the Shift to Electric Cars Here s another stock idea to consider Much like petroleum 150 years ago lithium power may soon shake the world creating millionaires and reshaping geo politics Soon electric vehicles EVs may be cheaper than gas guzzlers Some are already reaching 265 miles on a single charge With battery prices plummeting and charging stations set to multiply one company stands out as the 1 stock to buy according to Zacks research It s not the one you think |
XOM | ExxonMobil SABIC Ink Deal To Forge Ahead With U S Project | ExxonMobil Corporation s NYSE XOM affiliates and SABIC recently inked an agreement to carry out a comprehensive study of the planned Gulf Coast Growth Ventures project in Texas The companies are also likely to start planning for front end engineering and design work ExxonMobil and SABIC had chosen a site in San Patricio County TX for the proposed petrochemical complex in Apr 2017 The facility was to include an ethane steam cracker with a producing capacity of 1 8 million tons of ethylene per year a monoethylene glycol unit and two polyethylene units The project is one of the 11 key chemical refining lubricant and liquefied natural gas projects in ExxonMobil s 20 billion Growing the Gulf initiative in the United States We note that the initiative has been made possible by the abundance of low cost U S natural gas These projects of ExxonMobil both on completion and when operational at mature levels are projected to have extensive and long term benefits All projects planned or on going are estimated to generate over 35 000 construction jobs and above 12 000 full time jobs ExxonMobil and SABIC have collaborated in the past too The companies successful alliances in Saudi Arabia comprise the Al Jubail Petrochemical Company and Saudi Yanbu Petrochemical Company The most recent construction of the companies include the world scale specialty elastomers facilities at the Al Jubail joint venture complex that is aimed to meet the growing demand for rubber based industrial and automotive products This agreement reinforces ExxonMobil s focus on progressing with the Gulf Coast Growth Ventures project ExxonMobil s price chart however is unimpressive Shares of the company have gained 0 2 in the last three months while the industry registered an increase of 1 5 ExxonMobil currently has a Zacks Rank 3 Hold Some better ranked stocks from the same space include SunCoke Energy Inc NYSE SXC Exterran Corp NYSE EXTN and Canadian Natural Resources Limited Ltd TO CNQ All these stocks sport a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy You can see SunCoke Energy posted a positive earnings surprise of 120 0 in the preceding quarter The company beat estimates in two of the four trailing quarters with an average negative surprise of 35 78 Exterran posted a positive earnings surprise of 123 21 in the year ago quarter Canadian Natural Resources posted a positive earnings surprise of 30 77 in the preceding quarter It surpassed estimates in two of the four trailing quarters with an average negative surprise of 275 46 Zacks 2017 IPO Watch ListBefore looking into the stocks mentioned above you may want to get a head start on potential tech IPOs that are popping up on Zacks radar Imagine being in the first wave of investors to jump on a company with almost unlimited growth potential This Special Report gives you the current scoop on 5 that may go public at any time One has driven from 0 to a 68 billion valuation in 8 years Four others are a little less obvious but already show jaw dropping growth |
CSCO | Exclusive China Telecom plans bid to build Mexico broadband network sources | By Christine Murray MEXICO CITY Reuters China s third largest carrier China Telecom is preparing a possible bid for a contract to build and run a new mobile broadband network in Mexico and is seeking local partners to join it in a consortium three people with knowledge of the matter said It has already secured up to several billion dollars of financing from Chinese state controlled banks including the China Development Bank for the project which Mexico estimates will cost 10 billion over 10 years one of the people said The proposed network is part of a sweeping reform designed to break billionaire Carlos Slim s hold on the Mexican telecoms business but the Chinese involvement could prove controversial and trigger concerns from the U S some Mexican officials say Mexico s government is trying to ease its economic dependence on the United States and ramp up Chinese investment A Chinese led consortium looks poised to win a 3 75 billion contract to build a high speed train system sources with knowledge of the plan say This is despite the group s previous winning bid being revoked late last year amid a political scandal Representatives for China Telecom did not return requests for comment and representatives for China Development Bank could not be reached for comment A spokesman for Mexico s Communications and Transport Ministry SCT declined to comment On a trip to China in November to reduce tensions caused by the train contract cancellation Communications and Transport Minister Gerardo Ruiz Esparza also discussed the mobile network plan with the Chinese government according to a ministry press release State owned China Telecom s international subsidiary China Telecom Global wants to be an operating partner in the network and not just an investor said the people who requested anonymity It is still looking for Mexican partners the people said It was unclear who had been approached GOVERNMENT ASSETS The people did not say how big a stake the Chinese would take in the consortium that would make the bid Under a government timeline published last year the tender should have begun last month with a winner due to be chosen in August this year Creation of the wholesale network was written into Mexico s constitution as part of telecom market reforms in 2013 It aims to allow Slim s mobile competitors better coverage without using the network of his company America Movil or bearing the cost of building their own Under current plans Mexico s government will not take a stake in the company that runs the network according to two of the sources Instead the winning group will have a public private partnership contract with the government which will allow it use of some state infrastructure such as sites to build towers on and a fiber optic network owned by the state electricity firm It will also have a concession for use of 90 MHz of the valuable 700 MHz spectrum In exchange the network will have to cover large parts of the country with the exact coverage to be decided in the tender The winning company would then subcontract telecoms equipment makers to build and maintain the network If the Chinese bid wins it would mean the Chinese government indirectly owning part of a telecoms network that would cover most of Mexico right up to the U S border Many large U S companies also have operations in Mexico Chinese telecom equipment maker Huawei HWT UL has expressed interest in the project and would be more likely to supply parts to the network if it is Chinese led and financed as has happened in other deals outside China Huawei has been largely locked out of supplying network equipment to the U S because of opposition from U S lawmakers who allege the company maintains ties to the Chinese authorities and could use its equipment to spy on U S communications Huawei has consistently rejected the allegations Representatives for Huawei did not respond to a request for comment The SCT already received an unsolicited bid proposal from a group of ex telecoms executives lawyers and bankers supported by equipment makers Ericsson and Alcatel Lucent The ministry chose not to accept it in order to keep the competition level one person said Accepting it would have meant giving the team an edge in the bidding process Finland s Nokia and U S equipment maker Cisco Systems Inc have also had meetings with the Mexican government about a possible bid one person said Spokesmen for the both companies declined comment |
CSCO | Apollo to pay more on Presidio amid reputational credit questions | By Lisa Lee Mike Stone and Mariana Santibanez NEW YORK Reuters This story filed on January 22 2015 has been refiled to clarify proposed creditor terms of the Caesars bankruptcy and related quotation The term debt financing backing Apollo Global Management LLC s APOLO UL buyout of information technology services provider Presidio Inc is facing pushback from loan investors wary of an unpopular sponsor the deal s high leverage and issues related to the credit itself The 650 million term debt facility has been struggling to attract enough buyers since the deal was launched in early January people familiar with the planned borrowing said To entice investors wary of Presidio s lack of hard assets high leverage and business model lead arranger Credit Suisse this week made some adjustments to the credit sources said Buyer Apollo may also be paying a price for its involvement in restructuring Caesars Entertainment Co at a time when debt and bondholders stand to face losses on roughly 18 billion of debt Because Apollo is wiping out the Caesars debt holders the debt buyer universe has shrunk for the Presidio transaction a source close to the financing said referring to the hardest hit Caesars creditors An Apollo spokesperson declined to comment The sweetened terms will hike Apollo s borrowing costs but are seen as necessary to get the deal done The spread over Libor was increased to 525bp from prior guidance of 475bp the original issue discount slashed to 97 from 99 and the call protection extended to one year from six months The loans consist of a 600 million seven year term loan and a 50 million revolver A notes issuance of 400 million also supports the 1 3 billion acquisition Investors want to be better compensated for the risk taken as the company is increasing its financial leverage to fund the buyout Apollo s buyout boosts leverage to the mid six times Ebitda range according to Moody s Investors Service Loans that cross the six times leverage threshold have been criticized by regulators for overloading on risk and could potentially lead to penalties for bankers Investors are also frowning at the IT services outsourcing company a reseller of other technology company products low margins overconcentration on one client Cisco Systems Inc 49 percent and lack of hard assets We passed on Presidio We dislike the business to begin with and it s too much leverage and no assets said a loan investor We just didn t like the credit We didn t think the current level of performance could be maintained There is not a big recurring revenue generation said a second loan investor The offer of additional yield moved the syndication forward however More than 75 percent of the deal has been placed among investors according to loan market sources and the transaction is now moving towards closing There is still some chance for further changes to ensure that the 600 million term loan trades well in the secondary market they said Apollo Premium An important wrinkle for marketing the Presidio loan is the presence of Apollo as the financial sponsor The private equity firm is in the midst of restructuring of debt burdened Caesars Entertainment Co and fielding accusations of misappropriating assets at the expense of debt and bondholders People are hesitant to finance Apollo type deals because the covenants are very weak and they have shown in a number of situations that they will do whatever they can to protect their interests at the expense of bondholders a bond investor said Under the Caesars restructuring support agreement RSA second lien bond holders would get 0 30 cents on the dollar if they sign up for the restructuring less if they do not First lien bond holders would wind up with a recovery valued at 0 938 cents on the dollar and bank lenders would receive a full recovery The RSA was proposed by Caesars as a voluntary bankruptcy plan and still needs to be approved by the court Though Caesars s contested bankruptcy is a sharp reminder of Apollo s unpopularity among debt investors the impact may not put a kibosh on the transaction Having Apollo involved can be a negative given how they treat debt holders and bond holders explained the second loan investor But it s usually not a deal killer Apollo s unpopularity paired with credit issues has increased Apollo s borrowing costs before In late 2014 the sponsor paid up heavily on a 1 1 billion bond buyout deal for Canadian oil and gas company Jupiter Resources Ltd Investors cited credit specific issues and Apollo s bad reputation as reasons for their snubbing the transaction But particularly given the skimpy primary calendar for new leveraged loans investors need to put their money to work and do not have the luxury to pass on a deal simply because Apollo is the financial sponsor several investors said They really don t have much recourse though There s always an Apollo premium on things Investors not liking Apollo is a thing said another leveraged finance source Credit Suisse did not provide comment by press time Apollo is purchasing Presidio from American Securities LLC a middle market private equity firm |
CSCO | Telecom network spending seen rising this year amid 4G boom | By Leila Abboud and Olof Swahnberg PARIS STOCKHOLM Reuters Europe s telecoms equipment makers look set for an unpredictable year because of consolidation among their operator customers and a slowdown of buildouts of faster mobile networks known as 4G in the United States and China Nevertheless overall spending on mobile and fixed networks is expected to grow for a second consecutive year as operators worldwide seek to improve coverage and add capacity to keep up with rising data traffic from video and smartphones While construction of 4G networks is largely complete in the United States Japan and Korea the technology is just arriving in much of eastern Europe Latin America and Africa Market research firm Gartner predicts operators spending on mobile infrastructure including traditional radio base stations and newer gear like small cells will increase 8 percent this year to hit 43 36 billion Investment in fixed networks is set to rise 7 7 percent to 10 33 billion driven by fiber broadband rollouts it said The 4G story is spreading after the first spurt of rollouts in the U S Japan and Korea is behind us Deborah Kish an analyst at Garner said Telcos in more far flung places from Honduras to Croatia are looking to introduce more advanced services and move prepaid customers on to contracts Analysts at brokerage Bernstein Research meanwhile predict wireless equipment spending will rise 5 percent though fixed network equipment will be largely flat In a rare development Europe looks set to be a growth driver for telecom gear companies this year with leader in mobile gear Ericsson as well as number two China s Huawei and number three Nokia set to benefit from any uptick in spending DEAL FRENZY Vodafone s 7 billion pound investment push dubbed Project Spring to improve its networks part of an explicit plan to put pressure on rival operators could spur the likes of Deutsche Telekom and Telefonica to up their own capital spending to avoid being left behind Vodafone Chief Executive Vittorio Colao has said the group s big competitors were likely to increase network investments With the advent of 4G mobile there is a window for number one or two players in each market to spring ahead and put more space between us and smaller players he said Clouding the picture in Europe is a deal making frenzy in which Britain s broadband leader BT Group is in talks to buy mobile leader EE Hutchison Whampoa Ltd has agreed to buy Telefonica s British mobile unit O2 for up to 10 25 billion pounds 15 4 billion while Altice is buying Portugal Telecom Such deals often lead operators to review contracts with equipment vendors as they merge their networks so spending can be slowed or put on hold Meanwhile Alcatel more exposed to the United States than rivals with about a third of sales coming from there will have to cope with planned cutbacks at AT T and Verizon since both have finished building 4G networks But the Franco American group will get a boost to revenue from the weakening euro which may prove a boon to Chief Executive Michel Combes in the last year of a turnaround plan Alcatel will also benefit from its strong portfolio of IP routers and optical products analysts said which operators need to strengthen networks ability to carry heavy data traffic Huawei and Cisco Systems Inc are also strong in those areas India is also set to be a bright spot with up to 5 percent growth analysts say with carriers expected to invest in both voice and data networks after regulatory uncertainty on mobile licenses lifts Activity in India s sector had ground to a near halt in recent years because of a government corruption probe on the award of mobile licenses India has been way behind normal investments for a long time so there is a very significant pent up demand said Per Lindberg analyst at ABG Sundal Collier
Ericsson will report 2014 results on Tuesday and Nokia on Thursday Alcatel Lucent s results are on Feb 6 |
VZ | Thursday Uncertain Charts Bearish But Futures Climbing Non Trivially | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday uncertain
ES pivot 2016 75 Holding below is bearish
Friday bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap
Well it looks like it s time for another Night Owl Lite I kind of ran out of time on Wednesday to write the post though I did do the research So let s just cut to the chase with the results below
The technicals
skipping the chart commentary tonight
Tonight I m stumped The charts look mildly bearish but the futures are climbing non trivially in the overnight And the VIX which I count on a lot stopped right on its 200 day MA Wednesday And the market has been behaving oddly the past few days anyway so I m just going to call Thursday uncertain and leave it at that
Single Stock Trader
Looking bearish |
VZ | With The Futures Guided Lower Sunday Night Calling Monday Lower | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Monday lower
ES pivot 2064 58 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ still not a swing trade buy
Thursday night I called the market higher and responded accordingly on Friday with some nice gains across the board So let s move right on to Monday as we enter the last week of what has turned out to not be a particularly scary month of October after all
The technicals
The Dow The Dow rose 158 points on a gap up green marubozu that punched right through its 200 day MA That also sent the indicators to extreme overbought levels RSI 93 but next resistance isn t until 17 750 so there s at least a little bit more room to run here and in the absence of any bearish signs it is too early to call this chart lower just yet
The VIX Friday was one of these unusual days where the VIX rose on same day the general market went higher too Admittedly it was only a 0 07 gain but the candle was a fairly tall green nearly marubozu The overall recent trend is down but with the indicators now oversold it s possible a reversal may be in the works in the next few days It s just too soon to tell yet
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 1 45 AM EDT with ES down 0 24 After breaking through its 200 day MA on Thursday ES just continued rising on Friday posting a nice gain to close back up to 2066 That move has now retraced almost all of the giant plunge from back in August The upper BB is now at 2092 so that s the logical next target In addition the stochastic has just formed a bullish crossover from a high level and those are often good for another day or two of gains However RSI has actually turned lower from overbought levels and the overnight seems to be sagging somewhat So it s not clear to me that ES has any gas at all left in the tank to move higher again on Monday
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2039 17 to 2064 58 That s enough to put ES back below its new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish
Dollar index On Friday the dollar had an absolutely awesome day with a 0 82 gain that not only vaulted clear past its 200 day MA but then continued on to its upper BB and then closed above that That sort of move left the indicators at extreme overbought levels with RSI just short of 100 The stochastic is flattened out but has not yet formed a crossover and the dollar is now near resistance from mid August so it s not clear if it s got any more gas in the tank to run higher again on Monday I have my doubts
Euro Meanwhile in mirror image fashion on Friday the euro continued its recent slide having already broken through its own 200 day MA on Thursday On Friday it continued on down through its lower BB to close right back down to 1 1031 its lowest close since early August That move left the indicators all extremely oversold and the stochastic now looks like it s ready to form a bullish crossover With the overnight seeming to confirm that my guess is that the euro could close higher on Monday
Transportation The trans on Friday continued a week long winning streak with 0 69 gain that cleared recent resistance at 8256 And even with that the indicators are still not yet overbought So with a steep rising RTC in effect there are no bearish reversal signs on this chart tonight
The market ended last week with a pretty nice run but seems to have gotten a bit overextended in the process We also had a number of 200 MA crossings and those take their toll So with the futures guiding lower Sunday night I m going to just go ahead and call Monday lower
Single Stock Trader
After some nice gains last Thursday on Friday Verizon put in a perfect gap up doji star and that is two thirds of a bearish evening star In addition the indicators are now quite overbought and stochastic has just formed a bearish crossover so this chart is looking more like a short than a buy of any sort at this point |
VZ | Tired Market And Topping Signs Tuesday Lower | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday lower
ES pivot 2085 92 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ still not a swing trade buy
Monday turned out be one of those Days of Nothing and everybody was apparently sitting on their hands waiting for a slew of earnings reports to come out later this week as well as an upcoming Fed decision on interest rates That s about all there really is to say about Monday s action so let s move right on to Tuesday
The technicals
The Dow The Dow lost 24 points on Monday on a small red hanging man It wasn t a big move but with indicators highly overbought this is at least the warning of a reversal But more important perhaps was the failure of the Dow to advance any from Friday s close So overall it s hard to read too much into this because of the small numbers involved
The VIX Interestingly as well on Monday the VIX put in a nontrivial 5 74 gain on a day the Dow went nowhere with a gap up green marubozu that took the indicators finally off of oversold and gives the general impression that the VIX wants to move higher again on Tuesday
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 20 AM EDT with ES down 0 21 Like all the other charts on Monday ES pretty much stalled out unable to make any headway from Friday s close That caused the indicators to continue falling off their recent highs and interestingly also caused a fresh bearish stochastic crossover With the overnight action going lower it looks doubtful that ES can advance any further on Tuesday
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2064 58 to 2085 92 ES remains below its new pivot so this indicator turns back to bearish
Dollar index After a week long rise that saw the dollar bust through its 200 day MA on Friday and hit its upper BB it fell back 0 29 on Monday with a small red spinning top That was enough to cause the indicators to top at overbought and flatten out the stochastic in preparation for a bearish crossover Overall this chart looks like its got more downside risk than upside potential for Tuesday
Euro Meanwhile the euro did nothing much itself on Monday as it rose back to 1 1053 after falling through its 200 day MA last week Indicators continue to remain overbought but Monday s gain plus some positive pin action in the overnight suggests that there could be a higher close on Tuesday
Transportation On Monday the trans put in a small red spinning top for a 0 16 loss to follow up two green candles with a reversal warning Indicators are now somewhat confused because RSI has started falling before ever reaching overbought while the stochastic continues to rise and is still nowhere near in position to form a bearish crossover So the overall impression is that the trans may be headed lower on Tuesday
The market continues to look tired and we re seeing some topping signs tonight With the futures guiding lower it seems logical to call Tuesday lower
Single Stock Trader
Verizon rose again on Monday but did it on a second doji star in a row That continues to leave the indicators highly overbought and makes it look even more likely that there s a move lower coming very soon now In any case it s definitely not a swing trade buy |
VZ | Never Outguess The Fed Wednesday Uncertain | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday uncertain
ES pivot 2058 83 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap
On Tuesday the market pretty much confirmed my expectations from last night as the Dow put in a 42 point decline saved only by its 200 day MA With another important Fed day coming up we ll cut straight to the chase as it is my general policy to never attempt to call a Fed day We will resume the usual chart rundown on Wednesday
The technicals
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2062 58 to 2058 83 That move was enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator flips back to bullish
With the Fed coming up and despite the fact that the expectation is generally for no interest rate hike I make it a point to never try and outguess them Therefore I simply call Wednesday uncertain We ll see
Single Stock Trader
For what it s worth on Tuesday Verizon confirmed my bearish expectations and in fact ended up putting in a rare bearish tri star pattern With indicators still overbought and the stochastic just finally putting in a fresh bearish crossover this one definitely looks lower on Wednesday |
VZ | If ES Remains Above Pivot By Mid Morning Thursday Higher | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday higher only if ES remains above its pivot else lower
ES pivot 2058 83 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ still not a swing trade buy
Last night I refrained from calling the market on Wednesday because of the looming Fed decision In retrospect the nearly 200 point gain in the Dow was not entirely unexpected but that s just my policy In any case it was an interesting candle so let s take a look at the charts for Thursday and see where that s headed
The technicals
The Dow As is so often the case when the Fed s decision comes out the Dow took off in one direction in this case lower only to suddenly reverse course and then finish in the other direction in this case a 1 13 gain That proves that the 200 day MA served as support for the second day in a row But it still leaves the indicators overbought and after a tall green marubozu leaves us just short of the upper BB at 17 878 So there s no bearish reversal candle immediately but it s not clear how much upside Dow has left
The VIX After looking toppy last night on a lopsided red spinning top on Wednesday the VIX declined 7 13 on a very long legged red spinning top that almost hit its lower BB at 12 54 That confirmed Tuesday s bearish candle and with indicators that have now begun moving lower before ever reaching overbought it looks like there s more downside possible for the VIX on Thursday
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 13AM EDT with ES down 0 32 Thanks to Auntie Janet on Wednesday ES broke through its recent resistance around 2065 with a big pop back all the way back up to 2085 That means we have now retraced all of the big losses from August Indicators remain overbought but without a reversal candle insight yet there is no way I can call it lower on Thursday despite it sagging somewhat in the overnight
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2058 83 to 2075 08 That leaves ES above its new pivot though not by much But for now this indicator remains bullish
Dollar index The dollar went nowhere on Wednesday until the Fed decision Then it just absolutely took off to finish with a 1 13 gain that sent it clear above its upper BB for its highest close since August 7th That still leaves the indicators all highly overbought and the stochastic completely threaded out at a high level But this was not a reversal candle so it is too soon to call a move lower in the dollar yet
Euro After breaking under its 200 day MA last week the euro has been absolutely unable to get anything together On Wednesday it confirmed Tuesday s lopsided spinning top with a big decline to 1 0909 its lowest level since August 7th That leaves all the indicators still quite oversold and the overnight appears to be trying to stage a rally but it is by no means clear that the euro can finish higher from here on Thursday
Transportation On Wednesday the trans put in a nearly perfect long legged doji star for a tiny 0 08 gain Of course on Tuesday they had an enormous decline so any sort of recovery on Wednesday would not be entirely unexpected as moves this big tend to add credibility to reversal dojis So I wouldn t be surprised to see the trans move higher on Thursday
I don t know we don t really have any good bearish signs on the charts tonight but I m concerned that Wednesday s action or rather Fed reaction might have been overdone and that the market could be in for some retracing So I m going to take advantage of the close proximity of ES to its new pivot tonight to make another conditional call If ES remains above its new pivot by mid morning Thursday we ll close higher But it it galls below by then we close lower
Single Stock Trader
After a sharp decline when the Fed announcement came out Verizon managed to battle back to gain 0 31 You d think that would cancel the last three days bearish tri star pattern but Wednesday s candle turned out to be yet another doji star making it four bearish reversal signs in a row Indicators remain quite overbought so it still looks like the next move is lower |
VZ | Markets Seem To Have Topped So Calling Monday Lower | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Monday lower
ES pivot 2079 42 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ still not a swing trade buy
Although the spooky month of October went out with a bang in total the final day delivered a trick instead of a treat spoiling my call for a higher close with a 92 point decline in the Dow Nevertheless it was a winning month so we really can t complain With October now out of the way let s look ahead to November and figure out which way it will start off
The technicals
The Dow On Friday the Dow confirmed Thursday s red hanging man with a 0 52 decline That sent the indicators a bit lower though they remain overbought With this bearish confirmation on its own this chart looks negative for Monday
The VIX Meanwhile the VIX remains range bound as it continues to bounce around between approximately 14 10 and 16 14 Friday s action was right in the middle of that with a small lopsided green spinning top that probably doesn t mean all that much Indicators similarly are wandering around in no man s land between overbought and oversold so there s not much to say about that Overall the VIX simply continues to search for direction
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 1 15 AM EST with ES down 0 37 After a doji star reversal warning on Thursday on Friday ES put in a lopsided green spinning top that just barely touched its upper BB That confirmed Thursday s warning sign and we note that in the Sunday overnight ES is continuing lower This has already sent it off of overbought and confirmed a new bearish stochastic crossover So there s nothing bullish looking about this chart tonight
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2080 92 to 2079 42 ES is now back under its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish
Dollar index Last Thursday night the dollar looked lower to me on Friday and that is indeed what happened with a significant 0 35 decline on a gap down doji star that nearly touched its 200 day MA Even at that the indicators are still overbought and the stochastic has now finally completed a bearish crossover Therefore I have to take this candle with a grain of salt It s a reversal warning but one which requires confirmation on Monday
Euro I also called the euro correctly last Thursday night as it continued its rise Friday to close at 1 1009 It was something of a lopsided green spinning top but it was enough to send the indicators finally off of oversold and confirm a newly completed bullish stochastic crossover On top of that in the new Sunday overnight the euro is moving non trivially higher so it looks like there s a good chance that it may close up again on Monday
Transportation After looking quite promising on Thursday on Friday the trans simply petered out losing 0 12 on a classic red spinning top However they also formed a classic bullish stochastic crossover so tonight this one is simply a toss up
The market is up on the first day of most months and according to the Stock Trader s Almanac it has been up four out of the last five first trading days of November However given the situation tonight it s not clear that s going to be the case this year I ve been mentioning for a few days now that the market was looking toppy Now it s looking liked it s topped And given the direction of the overnight futures seeming to confirm that I m going to have to call Monday lower
Single Stock Trader
After a full five days of reversal warning signs on Friday VZ of all things put in a tall green candle to finish 1 higher Go figure That candle just about touched its upper BB and sent the indicators back to highly overbought It also cleared resistance at 46 46 so it s really not clear which way this chart wants to go on Monday In any case it s definitely not a swing trade buy set up |
VZ | No Clarity In The Charts Tuesday Uncertain | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday uncertain
ES pivot 2086 58 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ still not a swing trade buy
Well when I m wrong I m wrong ES was looking pretty dismal last night until about 3 AM after which it just took off and kept on rising The net result was a 165 point gain in the Dow which was enough to keep the latest rising RTC intact Now tonight is one of those nights where I m just out of time so it s going to be another Night Owl Lite night Just the results no blather
The technicals
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2079 42 to 2086 58 That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish
There s no real clarity to the charts tonight The VIX fell but remains in its recent trading range The futures are exactly unchanged and the pattern lately has been for a day or two of rest after one day triple digit gains in the Dow Accordingly I m just going to throw up my hands and declare Tuesday uncertain
Single Stock Trader
Verizon continued its wayward ways on Monday being one of the few losers in the Dow as it put in a red hanging man in dark cloud cover position With indicators still overbought this now looks more like a short than a buy |
VZ | Wednesday Higher Only If ES Remains Above Pivot | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday higher only if ES remains above its pivot else lower
ES pivot 2100 75 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ still not a swing trade buy
In retrospect I was probably a bit too conservative on Tuesday s call of uncertain but that s how in goes in the middle of lots of earnings reports Let s move on to Wednesday and see if we have more direction from the charts this time
The technicals
The Dow The Dow confirmed the bullish candle we got on Monday with another nice 0 50 gain This one just barely touched its upper BB at 18 005 before falling back to just under the 18 000 level Indicators remain overbought but not extremely so and at this point with two green candles on the books my guess is the Dow may want to take another peek at the 18 000 level on Wednesday
The VIX Tuesday was one of those unusual days when the VIX rose in this case 2 76 on a day when the broad market was higher too But this small gain still keeps the VIX in a more than one week long consolidation zone bordered between 14 and 15 50 So not much has changed and there s really not much we can make of this little lopsided green spinning top other than to say that the VIX will probably continue its sideways movement for the next few days
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are mixed at 1 12 AM EST with ES down a scant 0 02 On Tuesday ES remained in a month long rising RTC with a second green candle in a row this one nearly touching the upper BB at 2112 The indicators remain overbought where they ve been for nearly two weeks now The new overnight seems to be having some trouble gaining any traction but with such a strong rising trend in place and no bearish candle on the charts to speak of it is premature to call ES lower on Wednesday just yet
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES pivot rises from 2086 58 to 2100 75 That leaves ES just barely above its new pivot but this indicator remains nominally bullish
Dollar index The dollar put in a modest 0 25 advance on Tuesday on a red gap up inverted hammer Indicators have now fallen off of overbought and are all headed towards oversold With two thirds of an evening star in place this chart looks lower for Wednesday
Euro On Tuesday the euro confirmed Monday s gap up red spinning top with a tall red candle that brought it back down to 1 0970 and caused all the indicators to begin falling before reaching overbought and also sent to stochastic curving around in preparation for a bearish crossover With the new overnight guiding lower again the euro looks continued negative on Wednesday
Transportation In a bit bearish divergence on Tuesday the trans fell 0 44 on a day the rest of the market was higher This caused essentially a bearish dark cloud cover and left the indicators moving lower before ever reaching overbought That leaves a general bearish impression to this chart
Once again the charts are a bit indistinct tonight If anything there s a bit of a bearish bias here But because of fluctuations induced by earnings related news I m going to make a conditional call If ES remains above its new pivot by mid morning Wednesday we ll close higher But if it breaks below the pivot we close lower I know this one didn t work the last time I tried it but it works often enough to be useful
Single Stock Trader
On Tuesday VZ confirmed Monday s red hanging man dark cloud cover with a second red hanging man this one good for a 0 71 loss This was enough to drive the indicators just to the edge of overbought on the way down But we also now have a completed bearish stochastic crossover so once again this chart still looks lower to me for Wednesday |
VZ | Charts Negative So Calling Thursday Lower | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday lower
ES pivot 2098 33 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ still not a swing trade buy
My conditional forecast last night for Wednesday worked out pretty well ES hovered above its new pivot until shortly after the open and then it fell below making just one brief vain attempt to regain it but by 10 50 AM it was all downhill from there and the market just closed lower But this is all a reflection of a crazy week full of earnings that are yanking the charts around in strange ways We ll take a look tonight again as usual but I m not too optimistic about forecasting this whole week
The technicals
The Dow The Dow wandered all over the place on Wednesday but in the end kept on putting in lower highs and lower lows to finish the day down 0 28 The resulting candle is a classic dark cloud cover and the indicators are now right on the edge of overbought on the way down So with the failure to make any headway above the 18 000 level and the upper BB this chart just looks bearish for Thursday
The VIX On Wednesday the VIX put in its biggest gain in over two weeks with a 6 67 advance on essentially a tall green marubozu Frustratingly enough though it still hasn t broken out of its extended recent trading range If anything it looks like it may be forming a megaphone pattern In the meantime we need to see if the VIX has the chops necessary to break out of this range and test its 200 day MA currently at 16 30 on Thursday Given recent history though it s not at all clear this is going to happen
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 12 51 AM EST with ES up 0 07 Last night I was reluctant to call ES lower on the basis of two fairly strong green candles one of which touched the upper BB Well on Wednesday that all fell apart with essentially a red harami candle as a fat spinning top Indicators are still overbought but now all headed lower and with the overnight guiding lower still this chart looks nothing but negative for Thursday
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2100 75 to 2098 33 That now puts ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish
Dollar index Well I missed the dollar badly on Wednesday Last night after putting in a gap up inverted hammer it looked for all the world to me like a topping indication But on Wednesday instead it moved higher once again on a big 0 80 gap up green candle for its best close since August 10th That move was also enough to send all the indicators back up after recently falling off of overbought and just squeak out a bullish stochastic crossover So it s not out of the question that the dollar could move higher once again on Thursday
Euro On the other hand I caught the euro exactly right last night when I said it was going lower On Wednesday the euro broke through support at 1 909 and kept on going to close 1 865 That was enough to drive indicator oversold but also caused a bearish crossover from a low level No through good for another day or two of lower prices and with three accelerating down days on the books now I see no reason why they would go lower or higher on Thursday
Transportation Last night I said that the trans look bearish for Wednesday after a red hanging man appeared on Tuesday And indeed the trans did fall once again this time down 0 65 to retrace almost all of Monday s gains This move was also enough to flatten out the stochastic in preparation for a bearish crossover so with indicators continuing to fall but not yet oversold and two red candles on the books this chart looks lower again for Thursday
I suppose anything s possible during earnings season but the overall impression of the charts is negative tonight so I m just going to have to go out on a limb and call Thursday lower
Single Stock Trader
I called Verizon last night lower last night and that s just where it went down another 0 67 on Wednesday That has now brought the indicators off of overbought and the stochastic is in full blown bearish crossover mode With a tall red candle on the books and three down in a row there is now nothing bullish at all about this chart tonight |
VZ | Friday Stock Market Forecast | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Friday uncertain
ES pivot 2098 33 Holding below is bearish
Next week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ still not a swing trade buy
Thursday was a squeaker I called it lower and indeed the Dow descended mightily right out the gate but then it wandered its way back up to almost break even by the time the bell rang This probably reflects a lot of uncertainty about Friday s upcoming job numbers And that s one tape I have no intention of fighting Therefore I will cut right to the chase I am simply going to defer on this particular forecast No charts tonight as there s no point to it
The technicals
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2080 92 to 2094 25 However a sudden midnight rally in ES has just managed to punch through the new pivot thus turning this indicator back to bullish again though not at this point by much
It seems that this Friday s job numbers are being more closely watched than most as they apparently may influence the Fed on whether to raise rates in December or not Accordingly the market seems to be sitting on its hands waiting for that as seen by the number of dojis on the charts tonight and the fact that the futures are basically going nowhere in the overnight Therefore the only sensible thing for me to do is call Friday uncertain The market will move when the numbers come out That s all she wrote See you again Sunday night
Single Stock Trader
After ending Wednesday with three black crows Verizon surprised me on Thursday by actually gaining 0 06 on a small doji star That left the indicators in somewhat of a confused state with RSI rising but the rest of them falling We re now in a new descending RTC with only a weak reversal warning particularly since the indicators have not yet hit oversold So this one is worth watching but it s not yet a swing trade buy |
XOM | Voting in Papua New Guinea marred by problems with electoral rolls disruptions | By Harry Pearl
SYDNEY Reuters Polling in Papua New Guinea has been hampered by reports of disruptions and voters being left off the electoral roll but the head of an international election observer group said on Sunday there was no evidence they were deliberate
The two week long election to decide who will lead the resource rich South Pacific nation began on June 24 pitting 3 332 candidates from 44 political parties against each other for a place in the 111 seat parliament
But reports of problems at voting booths and allegations of ballot fraud have soured the mood among some in a country which has a history of electoral violence and corruption
There has clearly been problems but to be fair in our observation the government has endeavored to address these Sir Anand Satyanand chairman of the Commonwealth observer group told Reuters by phone
Problems with the 2017 electoral roll have meant that the 2012 roll was being used in some areas preventing some people from casting votes
Logistical issues poor transportation links and bad weather had disrupted voting in other parts of the country
Prime Minister Peter O Neill who is in a strong position to retain power has rejected accusations by opposition politicians that he is to blame for the election issues
The electoral roll is the responsibility of the Electoral Commission and is independent he said in a statement on Sunday
Failed leaders can make any claim they like but they never back this up with proof
Satyanand said he had seen no evidence to suggest the issues were planned
Despite its mineral wealth which includes Exxon NYSE XOM Mobil s 20 billion LNG plant most of Papua New Guinea s nearly eight million people live at subsistence level on islands atolls and in remote mountain village
The rugged terrain and poor infrastructure make holding an election difficult and expensive according to Associate Professor Sinclair Dinnen a Melanesia expert at the Australian National University
The larger background is that the funding to the Electoral Commission was cut back this time because of the fiscal crisis in PNG and that too has led to problems Dinnen told Reuters by phone
PNG s credit rating was downgraded to B2 by Moody s in April last year reflecting ongoing balance of payments pressures that have been compounded by slump in oil and gas prices |
XOM | Eventual Groningen shutdown can t be ruled out hitting Exxon analyst says | Exxon Mobil s XOM 1 4 organic growth could be hurt by problems at the Groningen gas field it shares with Royal Dutch Shell LON RDSa as production caps caused by rising earthquakes in the region eventually could even lead to a total shutdown says Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov An eventual field shutdown which cannot be ruled out would erase nearly all of Exxon s organic growth through 2020 Molchanov writes seeing little chance that the top Dutch administrative court will grant the oil companies appeal against the most recent strict cuts For XOM compliance would mean an incremental reduction of 72M cf day from Q4 erasing 0 7 of the company s gas volumes and 0 3 of company wide oil and gas volumes more of a hit than might first appear given the context of a company with a 1 targeted organic growth rate The government is not in favor of a total production halt but the current policy essentially seems to amount to a controlled phase out the firm says whether it occurs abruptly or gradually a full shutdown with the resulting loss of 2 9 of XOM s production cannot be ruled out over the medium term Now read |
XOM | Exclusive Energy giants court Qatar for gas expansion role despite crisis | By Ron Bousso and Dmitry Zhdannikov LONDON Reuters The West s three biggest energy corporations are lobbying Qatar to take part in a huge expansion of its gas production handing Doha an unintended but timely boost in its bitter dispute with Gulf Arab neighbors The chief executives of ExxonMobil N XOM Royal Dutch Shell L RDSa and France s Total PA TOTF all met the emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani in Qatar before it announced a plan on Tuesday to raise output of liquefied natural gas LNG by 30 percent Company and industry sources told Reuters that the CEOs had expressed interest in helping Qatar with its ambition to produce 100 million tonnes of LNG annually equivalent to a third of current global supplies in the next five to seven years The companies already have large investments in countries on both sides of the dispute and are keen to remain neutral after Saudi Arabia the United Arab Emirates Bahrain and Egypt severed ties with Doha on June 5 nL8N1JW0KM Spokespeople from all three firms declined comment However a top executive from one energy major looking into expanding in Qatar said the huge business opportunity was worth the considerable political risk There is only one policy here you have to behave like a commercial corporation the executive told Reuters You have to make your choices purely economically and be Qatari in Qatar Emirati in the Emirates Energy sales have powered Qatar s rapid rise as a regional player since the late 1990s and the oil majors interest in the LNG expansion underline its longer term economic muscle during the political row with its neighbors Chief executives Darren Woods of Exxon and Ben van Beurden of Shell both met the emir after the four Arab countries imposed the sanctions Total chief Patrick Pouyanne has also visited Doha in recent weeks Qatar the world s largest LNG supplier and second biggest gas exporter after Russia has some of the lowest production costs The plan was seen as an opening shot in a price war as Doha tries to defend its market share especially against supplies from U S shale deposits where costs are higher WILLINGNESS TO INVEST The four Arab countries which have demanded Qatar stop fostering terrorism and courting Iran said after meeting on Wednesday that Doha s response to their grievances had been negative Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al Jubeir said the political and economic boycott would remain until Qatar improved its policies Further steps would be taken at the appropriate time he said Doha denies aiding terrorism and its foreign minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani accused the four of clear aggression while adding that Qatar continued to call for dialogue to settle the dispute nL8N1JW27A nL8N1JW1Y1 Exxon Shell and Total have already invested extensively in Qatar particularly in projects to liquefy gas allowing it to be shipped by tanker to consumer markets where transport by pipeline is not feasible Woods met the emir on June 26 discussing cooperation with Qatar where Exxon has been present since 1935 according to a statement carried by the state news agency Industry sources close to the talks said that the Exxon CEO was very keen to join the new gas capacity expansion and expressed willingness to invest Woods replaced Rex Tillerson under whom Exxon helped to build Qatar s LNG industry until he left to become U S Secretary of State earlier this year Exxon will be the largest foreign investor in Qatar in 2017 with most money going into LNG facilities representing around seven percent of its global portfolio according to consultancy WoodMackenzie Shell s Van Beurden was among the first foreign company leaders to visit Qatar after the crisis broke out meeting the emir on June 14 This was followed several days later by a new deal under which Qatar will supply Shell the world s largest LNG trader with 1 1 million tonnes annually for five years starting in 2019 Shell s operations in Qatar include Pearl GTL the world s largest gas liquefaction plant Its overall investments in the state represent around six percent of its global portfolio The three firms had been expecting Qatar to expand its LNG exports since it lifted a self imposed moratorium on development of the North Field the world s biggest natural gas field it shares with Iran the sources said Oil and gas companies generally are no strangers to operating in risky areas This week Total became the first Western energy firm to invest in Iran since the lifting of sanctions against the country The project phase 11 of Iran s South Pars development draws gas from the same reservoir as Qatar s North Field nL8N1JU2W4 Total chief Pouyanne discussed new opportunities in the LNG sector as well as the company s plans to develop the Al Shaheen oil field on his trip to Doha according to a senior source Qatar s LNG capacity could be boosted by up to 10 million tonnes per year relatively quickly and cheaply by optimizing existing facilities and upgrading a small number of units a process known as debottlenecking according to a senior industry source Beyond that the expansion would require building new liquefaction terminals involving significant investments which the energy giants can offer Qatar LNG is really an important part of their overall portfolio especially for Exxon but Total and Shell are also material LNG players there Tom Ellacott analyst at WoodMackenzie said
Qatar LNG is very competitive Debottlenecking will be a relatively cheap option to increase capacity but with the industry at a low point in the cost cycle it may also be a good time to install new terminals |
XOM | Reuters Exxon Shell and Total might expand in Qatar | Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM Royal Dutch Shell LON RDSa RDS A RDS B and Total NYSE TOT are lobbying Qatar to take part in the country s expansion of its gas production Reuters reports handing the government an unintended but timely boost in its dispute with Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf neighbors The CEOs of the three oil giants all recently met the emir in Qatar before the government unveiled its plan to raise liquefied natural gas output by 30 and all expressed interest in helping achieve the country s production ambitions according to the report XOM CEO Darren Woods met the emir on June 26 discussing cooperation with Qatar according to the state news agency XOM Shell and TOT have invested extensively in Qatar particularly in projects to liquefy gas Analysts say Qatar s LNG capacity could be raised by as much as 10M metric tons year relatively quickly and cheaply by optimizing existing facilities and upgrading a small number of units Now read |
XOM | Are Exxon And Petrobras Forming A Strategic Partnership | According to recent reports ExxonMobil Corporation NYSE XOM and Petroleo Brasileiro SA or Petrobras Enegia Participaciones are holding discussions to form a strategic partnership to include multiple assets in Brazil and overseas in different segments of the industry Per sources the deal is expected to give ExxonMobil access to oil fields and infrastructure in Brazil Petrobras on the other hand could gain from ExxonMobil s expertise in production refining and distribution The Brazilian state run oil giant however clarified in a statement that there is no ongoing discussion for a strategic alliance with ExxonMobil On the other hand ExxonMobil refused to disclose any detail Since Brazil eased nationalist regulations and opened the market to more competition international oil companies have been taking a closer look at the region The transaction is similar to the 2 2 billion deal with Total SA NYSE TOT in December wherein the company agreed to buy stakes in Brazilian oil fields and energy infrastructure to expand its presence in Latin America s largest economy That agreement comprised stakes in the Iara and Lapa offshore prospects and gave Petrobras the option to buy stake in a field in the Gulf of Mexico Total had said at the time Total also purchased 50 of two thermoelectric plants in the Bahia area and the right to use a regasification unit in the city Other European oil producers have also been motivated to purchase stakes in the deep water discoveries that have been driving Brazil s production growth Statoil OL STL ASA NYSE STO acquired Petrobras stake in the Carcara find in 2016 in a 2 5 billion deal and Royal Dutch Shell LON RDSa Plc expanded in the pre salt region through its acquisition of BG Group Ltd In the recent months Michel Temer s government pulled back Petrobras exclusivity to operate in the pre salt and eased buy in Brazil requirements for platforms and equipment Only one pre salt field the massive Libra discovery has been auctioned in this decade The auction was made under the terms that guaranteed Petroleo Brasileiro SA as it is formally known control of operations While single wells in the pre salt region can produce over 40 000 barrels a day among the most productive in the world ExxonMobil earlier had a rare case of exploration failure in at a concession it abandoned in 2012 ExxonMobil s price chart however shows weakness Shares of the company lost 3 9 in the last three months while the Zacks categorized industry registered an increase of 5 1 in the same time span
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XOM | ExxonMobil To Acquire Petrochemical Plant In Singapore | ExxonMobil Corporation NYSE XOM recently announced that it is acquiring a massive petrochemical plant in Singapore from Jurong Aromatics Corporation Pte Ltd at a discounted price ExxonMobil refused to reveal the exact acquisition price The transaction is expected to be completed in the second half of 2017 The plant which is located on Jurong Island in Singapore is believed to be one of the largest in the world The plant was built for 2 4 billion and has an annual production capacity of 1 4 million tons It is likely to provide operational and logistical synergies for ExxonMobil s neighboring integrated refining and petrochemical complex ExxonMobil s largest refining petrochemical complex is in Singapore and it has a crude oil processing capacity of 592 000 barrels per day and two steam crackers Acquisition of the Jurong aromatics plant will boost ExxonMobil s aromatics production in Singapore to more than 3 5 million tons per year including 1 8 million tons of paraxylene The aromatics chemical plant to be acquired by ExxonMobil was opened in 2014 Jurong Aromatics is struggling financially at present and is going through the U S equivalent of bankruptcy proceedings The plant has been shut for the majority of its existence only resuming operations in July The aromatics plant mainly produces paraxylene and benzene and the chemicals are known as aromatics because of their sweeter odor Paraxylene is a chemical used to make polyesters and plastics while benzene creates other chemicals including gasoline additives Per Jurong Aromatics these are utilized for textiles and clothing construction tires sports equipment and plastics ExxonMobil s presence in Singapore dates back to over 12 decades and the company is one of the country s largest international manufacturing investors Singapore s integrated petrochemical complex can process a wide range of feedstocks from light gases to crude oil Later this year the complex will begin the phased start up of new 230 000 ton per year specialty polymers facilities that will produce halobutyl rubber and performance resins for adhesive applications The projected increase in global demand for chemical products over the next 10 years of about 45 or about 4 per year is likely to be the driving force for ExxonMobil s growth in Singapore This is a faster than energy demand and economic growth Investor confidence on the ExxonMobil stock is reflected in its price chart Shares of the company lost 0 5 in the last three months while the Zacks categorized industry registered a decrease of 6 in the same time span ExxonMobil currently has a Zacks Rank 2 Buy Other stocks from the same space that warrant a look are SunCoke Energy Inc NYSE SXC Gran Tierra Energy Inc TO GTE and Canadian Natural Resources Limited Ltd TO CNQ All these stocks sport a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy You can see SunCoke Energy posted a positive earnings surprise of 120 0 in the preceding quarter The company beat estimates in two of the four trailing quarters with an average negative earnings surprise of 35 78 Gran Tierra Energy posted a positive earnings surprise of 105 88 in the year ago quarter It posted an average positive earnings surprise of 18 63 in the four trailing quarters Canadian Natural Resources posted a positive earnings surprise of 30 77 in the preceding quarter It surpassed estimates in two of the four trailing quarters with an average negative earnings surprise of 275 46 Sell These Stocks Now Just released today s 220 Zacks Rank 5 Strong Sells demand urgent attention If any are lurking in your portfolio or Watch List they should be removed immediately These are sinister companies because many appear to be sound investments However from 1988 through 2016 stocks from our Strong Sell list have actually performed 6X worse than the S P 500 |
XOM | ExxonMobil s Muruk 1 Sidetrack Well Yields Positive Results | ExxonMobil Corporation NYSE XOM recently came up with positive drilling results on the Muruk 1 sidetrack well in the Papua New Guinea PNG North Highlands Located 13 miles 21 kilometers northwest of the Hides gas field the Muruk 1 sidetrack well hit high quality sandstone reservoirs southwest of the Muruk 1 natural gas discovery which was announced in late 2016 The sidetrack well has been drilled to a total depth of 13 550 feet 4 130 meters ExxonMobil has a well established history of exploring developing and commercializing assets in PNG Petroleum prospecting license 402 spans across an acreage of 126 000 510 square kilometers in the PNG Highlands Drilling of the Muruk 1 well was started by Oil Search the operator on Nov 2 2016 Other partners in the license are ExxonMobil Oil Search Limited and Barracuda Limited a subsidiary of Santos Limited subject to regulatory approval holding 42 5 37 5 and 20 respectively This discovery proves the extent of the Muruk area and further establishes it as a potentially major new discovery with the same high quality sandstone reservoirs as the Hides field that supports the PNG LNG project ExxonMobil s strength is exhibited by the diversity of its onshore and offshore portfolio The company s long term investment approach and the opportunities to grow its business in PNG is reinforced through the success this drilling initiative However ExxonMobil s share price chart is unimpressive Shares of the company gained 1 2 in the last three months while the Zacks categorized industry registered an increase of 2 in the same time span Williams Partners currently has a Zacks Rank 2 Buy Other stocks from the same space that warrant a look are SunCoke Energy Inc NYSE SXC Exterran Corp NYSE EXTN and Canadian Natural Resources Limited Ltd TO CNQ All these stocks sport a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy You can see SunCoke Energy posted a positive earnings surprise of 120 0 in the preceding quarter The company beat estimates in two of the four trailing quarters with an average negative earnings surprise of 35 78 Exterran posted a positive earnings surprise of 123 21 in the year ago quarter Canadian Natural Resources posted a positive earnings surprise of 30 77 in the preceding quarter It surpassed estimates in two of the four trailing quarters with an average negative earnings surprise of 275 46 5 Trades Could Profit Big League from Trump PoliciesIf the stocks above spark your interest wait until you look into companies primed to make substantial gains from Washington s changing course Today Zacks reveals 5 tickers that could benefit from new trends like streamlined drug approvals tariffs lower taxes higher interest rates and spending surges in defense and infrastructure |
CSCO | U S Supreme Court agrees to hear Cisco patent infringement case | By Lawrence Hurley WASHINGTON Reuters The U S Supreme Court on Friday agreed to review a patent infringement case involving Cisco Systems Inc that could have broad impact on companies ability to defend themselves from similar litigation The court said it will consider an earlier ruling by an appeals court that threw out a 64 million patent infringement verdict won by Commil USA LLC against Cisco The justices will hear patent holder Commil s appeal over whether the U S Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit was correct to throw out the verdict and order a new trial The case concerns a patent held by Commil on a way to improve the implementation of a wireless network where multiple access points are needed Commil sued Cisco for patent infringement and induced patent infringement based on the network equipment maker s use of similar technology In April 2011 a jury awarded Commil almost 63 8 million in damages A judge subsequently added 10 3 million in interest In June 2013 the appeals court ordered a retrial concluding that Cisco should be allowed to mount a defense to the induced infringement claim on the basis that it had a good faith belief that the Commil patent was invalid when it sold its products to customers A 2010 jury had concluded the patent was valid In a brief filed at the invitation of the high court the U S government warned that companies accused of inducing patent infringement are likely to raise the good faith defense in most cases if not all of them The brief court order noted that Justice Stephen Breyer will not participate in the case A ruling is due by the end of June The case is Commil v Cisco U S Supreme Court No 13 896 Separately on Friday Cisco filed two lawsuits against Arista Networks Inc accusing the smaller rival of copying its networking technologies Reporting by Lawrence Hurley Additional reporting by Andrew Chung in New York Editing by Kevin Drawbaugh James Dalgleish and Christian Plumb |
CSCO | Cisco Systems sues rival for infringement of network patents | WASHINGTON Reuters Network equipment maker Cisco Systems Inc filed two lawsuits on Friday against Arista Networks Inc accusing the smaller rival of copying its networking technologies The lawsuits filed in a federal court in California accuse Arista of infringing on 14 patents on networks and also on related copyrights Cisco General Counsel Mark Chandler said in a blog post Shares of Arista were down 6 9 percent at 68 48 in afternoon trading while Cisco fell 0 9 percent to 27 51 Arista was formed by former Cisco employees including Chief Development Officer Andreas Bechtolsheim Chief Technology Officer Kenneth Duda and Chief Executive Officer Jayshree Ullal Rather than building its products and services based on new technologies developed by Arista however and providing legitimate competition to Cisco Arista took a shortcut by blatantly and extensively copying the innovative networking technologies designed and developed by Cisco one of the complaints said Cisco is a leader in the networking world with revenue of 12 2 billion in the third quarter Arista in contrast reported sales of 155 5 million for the period although it is growing fast Arista said it had not yet been able to evaluate the lawsuits While we have respect for Cisco as a fierce competitor and the dominant player in the market we are disappointed that they have to resort to litigation rather than simply compete with us in products Arista said in an emailed statement
Cisco filed the lawsuits on the same day the U S Supreme Court agreed to review a 64 million patent infringement verdict that Commil USA LLC won against the company Reporting by Diane Bartz Editing by Jonathan Oatis and Lisa Von Ahn |
VZ | Charts Looking Tired So Tuesday Lower | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday lower
ES pivot 2008 92 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias lower technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ not a swing trade buy
Recap
Well it was about what I expected on Monday with a semi holiday The Dow gained a meager 47 points and the SPX managed less than that on a low volume snoozer of a day So with nothing much having happened lets continue on to see which way Tuesday is headed
The technicals
The Dow The Dow just keeps right on trucking with Monday making it 10 in a row on the latest rising RTC Lately its been just crawling right up its upper BB and RSI is now pegged at 100 It doesn t get any higher than that The stochastic similarly is also bumping up against the ceiling with no predictive power We remain in the biggest uptrend I ve seen in a long time and with no reversal candles in sight I just can t call this chart lower yet
The VIX And correspondingly the VIX is now in an equally long downtrend losing another 5 3 on Monday with its own RSI now on zero This is in fact the third day in a row RSI has been at zero and I can t recall the last time that happened In any case we continue to dribble down the lower BB with no end in sight Of even more importance is the fact that on Monday the VIX broke under its 200 day MA That s always a bad sign and with a red marubozu on the books it doesn t look like there s any reversal in sight for the VIX right now
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 36 AM EDT with ES down 0 17 After a rip roaring rally last week ES has been having some trouble making any headway the last few days putting in just a small advance on Monday And it appears to be giving most of that back in the new overnight in the form of a dark cloud cover Indicators also now appear to be falling back off extreme overbought levels and the stochastic has just squeaked out a bearish crossover So the general impression here is that this chart looks lower for Tuesday
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2006 75 to 2008 92 An overnight sag in ES has now put it back below its new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish
Dollar index On Friday the dollar dropped all the way to its lower BB and on Monday it lost another 0 12 on a gravestone doji Indicators are now oversold but the stochastic has not yet begun to curve around for a bullish crossover So we have a reversal warning in place but one which requires confirmation on Tuesday
Euro After touching its upper BB on Monday with a small lopsided spinning top the euro looks like it s falling back in the overnight down 0 13 at the moment Indicators look to have now peaked at overbought and the stochastic is getting ready for a bearish crossover so overall this chart looks negative for Tuesday
Transportation After a decent gain last Friday on Monday the trans put in a tall classic hanging man sitting right at the top of Friday s candle Indicators remain quite overbought and the stochastic is just about in position to form a bearish crossover We remain in a steep rising RTC but the trans are looking to be about out of gas right now so a move lower on Tuesday would not surprise me
Tonight the charts are looking tired and they have the right to be after such a nice rally last week We re getting some reversal signs so I m just going to go ahead and call Tuesday lower
Single Stock Trader
After putting in a red spinning top on Friday Verizon wasn t really able to make any headway on Monday with a stubby green hanging man Indicators and now quite overbought and the stochastic is getting ready to curve around for a bearish crossover Therefore this chart now looks to me to be more than a little toppy |
VZ | Thursday Higher | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday higher
ES pivot 1989 42 Holding above is bullish
Friday bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap
After three days of small range moves the Dow finally made a break on Wednesday at it was to the downside with a 157 point loss This finally gives us an interesting candle to work with so let s take a look at the charts and see which way Thursday might go
The technicals
The Dow On Wednesday the Dow made a brief attempt to move higher out of the gate but it was all for naught as after the first 15 minutes it spent the rest of the day moving lower to finish with a close to marubozu candle good for a 0 92 decline That threw it right out of its rising RTC for a bearish trigger sent the indicators continuing off of overbought and confirmed yesterday s bearish stochastic crossover So there s really nothing bullish all about this chart tonight
The VIX Last night I said the VIX looked higher for Wednesday and indeed it was gaining 2 on a long legged green spinning top That finally took the indicators off of oversold and confirmed the recent bullish stochastic crossover So despite the reversal candle my guess is that there s more upside to come here
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 12 19 AM EDT with ES up 0 57 On Wednesday ES followed up Tuesday s big dump with yet another move lower on a gap down inverted hammer to close at 1984 That finally sent the indicators off of overbought moving lower But oddly enough the new overnight seems to be staging a non trivial rally despite the bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit So I m not so sure that I can call Thursday lower at this point
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2000 00 to 1989 42 That plus an overnight rally is enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish again
Dollar index I was quite surprised by Wednesday s big 0 88 decline in the dollar on a tall gap down marubozu that went right through its lower BB I had figured with three reversal candles in a row and having hit its lower BB the dollar would go higher But it was not to be and instead we re left with massively oversold indicators with RSI now down to 2 48 and a stochastic that has fallen off the bottom of my chart There s no bullish reversal candle here and yet with everything else looking quite overextended I have to wonder if the dollar might not stage rally on Thursday
Euro At least I had the sense to take a pass on the euro on Wednesday which is just as well because it had a big gain to close up at 1 1489 a move which punched right through its upper BB on a tall green marubozu That leaves indicators all extremely overbought and the stochastic just in position for a bearish crossover It looks like this finally may be it for the euro as the overnight seems to be wanted wanting to go lower So my guess is that we could see a lower close on Thursday
Transportation After a massive plunge on Tuesday the Trans found a modicum of support on Wednesday in the form of a long legged green spinning top signaling a reversal warning of sorts However the indicators are still nowhere near oversold and the stochastic continues in a full blown bearish mode Still there is some question as to whether the downside might continue on Thursday It s possible that we could be in for a relief rally as Tuesday s move looks a little overdone to me
We have a number of reversal signs tonight particularly in the VIX and the trans Ordinarily they re not enough to call a market reversal but with some pretty decent support from the futures I m going to go a bit out on limb and call Thursday higher
Single Stock Trader
After three indecisive days finally on Wednesday Verizon N VZ broke to the down side losing 0 37 on a fairly tall red candle That was enough to send the indicators off of overbought on their way towards oversold and also to complete a bearish stochastic crossover So the recent uptrend is now clearly over and it looks like there s more downside on the way |
VZ | If ES Can Break Above New Pivot By Mid Morning Day Will Close Higher | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Monday higher only if ES breaks above its pivot else lower
ES pivot 2021 42 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap
I called last Friday as being uncertain and in retrospect that was about right because the market kind of wandered around for most of the day before finishing with some small gains We now move on to a new week to sort this all out and make some sense of where Monday might be headed
The technicals
The Dow It wasn t clear to me last Thursday night the Dow could follow up Thursday s big gains with another advance But on Friday that s just what happened with a 74 point gain on a green candle sitting right on top of Thursday s big move It also formed a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level Those are often good for another day or two of gains And with resistance around 17 130 now cleared it s not out of the question that the Dow could move higher again on Monday
The VIX And last Thursday I called the VIX correctly as it lost another 6 23 on Friday after breaking under its 200 day MA on Thursday However the candle was a red inverted hammer that left the indicators all oversold So while further declines are not out of the question Monday is a day that requires confirmation
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 11 AM EDT with ES down 0 30 After a great day last Thursday ES managed to squeak out some more gains on Friday to close back up to 2025 50 The candle was a fat hanging man and was enough to keep the indicators from continuing lower to just off of overbought The Sunday overnight however seems to be giving some of that back as the stochastic continues to consolidate its latest bullish crossover That all leaves this chart somewhat in flux and a bit difficult to call My guess though is that ES will have trouble moving higher on Monday
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2007 83 to 2021 42 That now puts ES back below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish
Dollar index Last Thursday night I noted a bullish green harami pattern for the dollar and called Friday higher And that s just what happened with a 0 17 gain that took the dollar away from its lower BB on a small gap up red spinning top But that was enough to confirm a bullish stochastic crossover so with indicators still oversold but a reversal candle in place this chart is not clear enough to call tonight
Euro I was also right last Thursday about the euro which closed lower on Friday as I had expected But it was a small loss back down to 1 1386 on a narrow doji star That sent the indicators continuing lower from overbought though they are still a long way from oversold The Sunday overnight though does not seem to be confirming this reversal indicator as the euro is down again That casts doubt on its ability to close higher on Monday
Transportation And finally in a bit of bearish divergence on Friday the trans lost a big 1 58 on a day the rest of the market was higher The candle was essentially bearish engulfing as the trans were unable to make any headway past Thursday s highs Indicators are now all falling towards oversold so on the face of it this chart looks fairly bearish for Monday
Tonight the charts look a bit indecisive and of course Monday is generally the hardest day to call anyway But given the close proximity of ES to its pivot it seems like a good time to try another conditional call if ES can break above its new pivot by mid morning Monday we ll close the day higher But if it remains below the pivot we close lower
Single Stock Trader
Last Friday Verizon put in a small gain on a red hanging man that just barely missed its upper BB It did take the indicators back to overbought though and that makes this chart now look quite toppy There s no way this is any kind of a buy at this point |
VZ | Despite Toppy Charts Premature To Call A Top Tuesday Uncertain | Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday uncertain
ES pivot 2023 25 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap
It was another snoozer of a day on Wall St with the Dow finishing a mere 15 points higher and not much of anything else going on However the charts are a bit more interesting so let s get right to them and see where Tuesday is going
The technicals
The Dow On Monday the Dow put in an interesting candle because despite finishing nearly unchanged it gave us a classic hanging man sent the indicators just barely off of overbought and left the stochastic with the completed bullish crossover I noted last night Considering how little headway the Dow made on Monday this is a reversal candle worth paying attention to but one which requires confirmation nonetheless
The VIX Last night I said that the VIX might move lower again on Monday but that required confirmation Well we got it with a 0 47 decline on a red bearish engulfing candle The indicators remain oversold and the stochastic continues its bearish crossover from a low level so there is nothing bullish about this chart tonight
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 1 02 AM EDT with ES down 0 05 ES continues to put in smaller and smaller gains with Monday s move closing at 2027 50 just barely above Friday s close It was also a classic hanging man and gave us a bearish stochastic crossover Indicators are now just off of oversold and moving lower and the overnight is also guiding lower So the general impression here is bearish for Tuesday
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2021 42 to 2023 25 That puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator returns to bullish
Dollar index I wasn t ready to commit to last night s gap up spinning top in the dollar and that s just as well because on Monday the dollar continued higher with a strong 0 39 gap up advance on a second spinning top This one was enough to bring the dollar off of oversold and send the stochastic on its way from oversold to overbought So overall that leaves us in the same spot we were last night with a reversal warning which requires confirmation
Euro At least I was right last night when I said the euro didn t look like it s going to close higher on Monday because that s just what happened with it falling back down to 1 1336 The euro is in a new descending RTC and the rising trend from the first half of this month is now clearly over Indicators are all falling towards oversold but haven t gotten there yet There is a hint of some support kicking in in the overnight this evening but the overall trend for the euro remains lower
Transportation Last night the trans looked pretty bearish to me but it turns out that on Monday they managed a 0 35 gain once again hitting support around 8040 Indicators continue falling toward oversold but have not reached there yet Meanwhile the stochastic has started curving around for a bullish crossover but isn t there yet either So with a hammer candle in place this chart looks like its primed to move higher on Tuesday but that requires confirmation
Tonight the charts are looking toppy However the VIX doesn t look ready to move higher and ES remains above its new pivot so it may be a bit premature to actually call a top right here So all that s really left is for me to just call Tuesday uncertain
Single Stock Trader
On Monday Verizon put in a second hanging man in a row but in the end went absolutely nowhere finishing unchanged That still leaves all the indicators overbought and stochastic completely threaded out as well So this chart still is not a swing trade buy |
VZ | Although Charts Unclear Calling Wednesday Higher | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday higher
ES pivot 2023 50 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader N VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap
It seems more like the dog days of summer than the middle of October as the Dow put in a tiny 13 point loss on Tuesday There s just no calling small moves like this so it s just as well I punted on Tuesday s call But now we have a little more data to work with so let s go right to the charts and see which way Wednesday is headed
The technicals
The Dow Well the Dow has now given us two reversal warnings in a row a classic hanging man on Monday followed by a classic spinning top in harami position on Tuesday The closes of the last three days are all within a few points of 17 220 as the Dow continues to struggle at that level Indicators are now falling off of overbought with the stochastic trying to gear up for a bearish crossover With two bearish reversal candles on the books now my guess is that the Dow ready to move lower on Wednesday
The VIX After falling below its 200 day MA last Thursday the VIX has been trying to recover ever since It has found some decent support just above the 15 handle and gave us two reversal candles on Friday and Monday They were followed by a third one a green spinning top on Tuesday as the VIX finally managed to gain 5 That was also enough to send the indicators off of oversold and cause the stochastic to form a bullish crossover So the overall impression here is bullish Wednesday
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 12 14 AM EDT with ES up 0 25 On Tuesday ES confirmed Monday s hanging man with a downward move back to 2020 50 The indicators are now falling off of overbought but still nowhere near oversold The stochastic meanwhile has completed a bearish crossover so that all looks negative except for the fact that the overnight actually is moving slightly higher on a candle that is so far looking like a hammer So this chart is pretty much up in the air for Wednesday
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 2023 25 to 2023 50 The overnight gain in ES is enough to keep it above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish
Dollar index Like I mentioned the dollar could move lower but it required confirmation And indeed on Tuesday the dollar did gap down hard out of the gate but then proceeded to claw its way back to finally finish virtually unchanged on the day The resulting candle was a green marubozu that did not confirm Monday s spinning top Indicators continue to rise but have not yet reached overbought So on the whole this chart looks positive for Wednesday
Euro I did miss the euro last night because on Tuesday it did not continue lower and instead finished with a stubby green spinning top to close at 1 1346 That left it sitting right on the edge of a steep descending RTC And in the new overnight it is trading entirely outside that with a non trivial gain and that is a bullish setup Indicators have not yet hit oversold but the stochastic is starting to curve around for a bullish crossover So despite the overnight gap up I think there s a good chance that the euro could close higher on Thursday
Transportation Last night I mentioned the trans looked ready to move higher and in a bit of bullish divergence on Tuesday that s just what they did gaining 0 64 on a day the rest of the market was down The resulting candle confirmed Monday s spinning top and arrested the descent of the indicators before ever reaching oversold The stochastic is also narrowing in preparation for a bullish crossover so tonight this chart overall looks bullish
The charts aren t entirely clear tonight The VIX is throwing off a vague reversal warning but we have some nice positive divergence in the trans and the futures are guiding higher So I think I m going to go with the latter and call Wednesday higher
Single Stock Trader
Verizon had a nice 0 54 gain on Tuesday on a move that took it past its upper BB before falling back The resulting candle was a gap up inverted hammer and that is a bearish sign Indicators are also now back solidly overbought though the stochastic is still having trouble forming a bearish crossover Nevertheless the over all impression is negative and it is definitely not a swing trade buy |
VZ | Crude oil falls in mid day U S trade | Investing com Crude oil futures moved lower in U S trade Friday as a better than expected U S labor report was not enough to overcome stagnant figures for unemployment for the world s largest energy consumer
On the New York Mercantile Exchange light sweet crude futures for November delivery traded at USD82 28 a barrel in mid day U S trade falling 0 36 after hitting a daily high of USD84 00
On Friday the U S Department of Labor announced that non farm payrolls rose to a seasonally adjusted 103 000 in September up from 57 000 the previous month Market expectations were for non farm payrolls to rise to 53 000 for the period
Labor gains in September were due in large part to the return of 45 000 unionized workers following a strike against Verizon Communications Inc
Separately the Labor Department reported that the U S unemployment rate remained unchanged in September at a seasonally adjusted 9 1 in line with market expectations
U S crude prices had dropped by 8 8 in September their biggest decline since May of 2010
Meanwhile unleaded gasoline topped gold as the best performing commodity so far for the year according to the Standard Poor s index the rating firm announced Friday
Gasoline has increased by 18 in 2011 in the S P GSCI Unleaded Gas Index while the broader commodity index has fallen by 7 during the same period
A rising U S dollar contributed to selling pressure on oil oil futures as dollar denominated futures contracts tend to fall when the dollar rises
The dollar index which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies was higher by 0 06 to 70 06
On the ICE Futures Exchange Brent oil futures for November delivery retreated 0 76 to trade at USD104 92 |
VZ | U S stocks soar on solid July jobs data Dow up 1 69 | Investing com U S stock prices soared Friday on news that the economy added far more jobs in July than expected At the close of U S trading the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 1 69 the S P 500 index was up 1 90 while the Nasdaq Composite index was up 2 00 The U S economy added a net 163 000 net nonfarm payrolls in July according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics far more than market expectations for a gain of 100 000 and well above June s revised figure of 64 000 The news sparked a global risk on trading session in which investors ditched the greenback a safe harbor asset class and scrambled for higher yielding currencies and equities Meanwhile the Institute for Supply Management s service sector index outpaced expectations last month as well In a report the Institute for Supply Management said that its non manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 52 6 in July up from 52 1 in June Analysts had expected the index to rise 52 0 The service sector employs the bulk of the U S labor market Stocks also rose on sentiment that despite the strong jobs numbers out of the U S intervention from the Federal Reserve is still a very real possibility The Federal Reserve has said it will remain on the sidelines but poised to stimulate the economy as needed Investors went long on equities on sentiment that one solid jobs report doesn t signal an end to tepid recovery and a beginning of more robust expansion which leaves the door open to Fed stimulus measures The overall unemployment rate rose to 8 3 in July from 8 2 despite the uptick in hiring reflecting a view that an underlying weakness in the economy still persists Federal Reserve stimulus tools such as bond purchases from banks tend to weaken the dollar and send stocks gaining Elsewhere eurozone retail sales beat expectations as well rising 0 1 in June after gaining 0 8 in May Markets were expecting a decline of 0 1 Leading Dow Jones Industrial Average gainers included Hewlett Packard up 4 05 Kraft Foods up 4 03 and Cisco Systems up 3 94 The Dow Jones Industrial Average s worst performers included Verizon Communications down 0 36 McDonald s Corp up 0 01 and AT T up 0 08 European indices meanwhile finished up After the close of European trade the EURO STOXX 50 rose 4 83 France s CAC 40 rose 4 38 while Germany s DAX 30 finished up 3 93 Meanwhile in the U K the FTSE 100 rose 2 21 |
XOM | Iraq s oil exports in June near May level oil minister says | By Aref Mohammed BASRA Iraq Reuters Iraq s oil exports from fields owned by the central government in Baghdad are at around 3 27 million barrels per day bpd so far in June about the same level as in May Oil Minister Jabar al Luaibi said on Thursday Total exports for all fields in Iraq those of Baghdad and the Kurdish region in the north have averaged 3 8 million bpd so far in June he told Reuters in the southern oil city of Basra The country as a whole is producing about 4 315 million bpd he said Kurdish exports are running at about 520 000 to 530 000 bpd so far this month he said Iraq is in quiet negotiations with foreign oil companies operating in Iraq to amend their services contract he said declining to give more details The country wants to change the terms of the contracts it deems no longer in its favor after oil prices collapsed three years ago when they were in excess of 100 per barrel to about 45 per barrel now Oil prices should start recovering by the end of July to reach 54 to 56 a barrel by the end of the year Luaibi said Iraq is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries second oil producer after Saudi Arabia The group in May rolled over an agreement to cut oil production with other exporting nations until March in order to support oil prices Iraq supports the agreement that we reached if developments happen contrary to OPEC s interests the OPEC ministers will hold an extraordinary meeting he said Iraq will continue developing its production capacity and will start executing a sea water injection project in its oilfields at the end of the year even without an agreement with Exxon N XOM he said We are now in talks with Exxon Mobil if we don t reach an agreement we have other options he said |
XOM | Papua New Guinea begins voting amid economic uncertainty | By Harry Pearl SYDNEY Reuters Papua New Guinea PNG began voting for a new parliament on Saturday in a two week long election to decide who will lead the resource rich nation through a period of significant economic uncertainty PNG has been hit hard by a slump in oil and gas prices and a 2016 drought that crippled farming and brought production at its largest copper mine to a halt The country s credit rating was downgraded to B2 by Moody s in April last year reflecting ongoing balance of payments pressures that have been compounded by the slump in global commodity prices Despite that Prime Minister Peter O Neill is in a strong position to retain power although experts say elections in the South Pacific nation are hugely unpredictable You have to treat this as 111 separate elections because what matters to the voters in most areas is incredibly local issues what services are getting sent to them from their local member said Jonathan Pryke a research fellow in the Lowy Institute s Melanesia program There are 111 seats in the PNG parliament Despite its mineral wealth which includes Exxon NYSE XOM Mobil s 20 billion LNG plant most of Papua New Guinea s nearly eight million people live at subsistence level on islands atolls and in remote mountain villages A total of 3332 candidates including 165 women from 44 political parties will contest the election O Neill who came to power in 2012 promising to rein in corruption has faced allegations he authorized millions of dollars in fraudulent payments to a leading law firm In 2014 an anti corruption watchdog issued an order for his arrest over the incident which O Neill denies He refused to comply and stripped the watchdog of funding Opposition politicians have harshly criticized the prime minister over his economic management which has been marked by deficit spending O Neill finished up campaigning on Friday by visiting remote villages in his home district of Ialibu Pangia in Southern Highlands Province We still have some weeks of voting and formation of Government and I call on all candidates and members of the public to continue to maintain the same calm and peaceful approach to voting he said in a statement Violence and corruption most notably vote buying have been a feature of elections in Papua New Guinea since it gained independence from Australia in 1975 Australia is working closely with PNG to support the election seconding experts from the Australian Electoral Commission and deploying 200 defense force personnel in Port Moresby the capital It has also deployed military aircraft to deliver election materials to remote communities Electoral observers from Commonwealth nations are in the country to observe the election The official result is due by July 24 |
XOM | Qatar s emir meets Exxon Mobil Corp CEO agency | Reuters The emir of Qatar met with Exxon Mobil Corp N XOM chairman and CEO Darren Woods in Doha on Saturday for talks on cooperation state news agency QNA reported following a rift between four Gulf states and Qatar that has raised worries about energy supplies Saudi Arabia the United Arab Emirates Bahrain and Egypt on Monday cut ties with Qatar accusing the country of supporting extremism Qatar denies the allegations QNA said the Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani met with Woods and ExxonMobil Qatar General Manager Alistair Routledge at the Al Bahar Palace During the meeting they discussed bilateral cooperation relations and means to develop them in addition to the latest developments in the energy sector the agency said Qatar and Exxon have had development agreements for more than a decade with Exxon helping Qatar to become the world s largest LNG exporter Exxon working with government controlled energy company Qatar Petroleum QATPE UL has invested in LNG processing plants transport ships and related infrastructure Exxon said earlier this month that production and exports of liquefied natural gas from Qatar have not been affected by the row
The growing diplomatic dispute has raised concerns about global access to Qatar s LNG especially after some regional ports in the Gulf said they would not accept Qatari flagged vessels |
XOM | Qatar s emir meets Exxon Mobil CEO | The emir of Qatar met with Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM CEO Darren Woods in Doha on Saturday for talks on cooperation following a Gulf rift that has raised worries about energy supplies Qatar and Exxon have had LNG development agreements for more than a decade but the company said earlier this month that production and exports have not been affected by the row |
XOM | Oil pipeline firms discounts rile clients roil markets | By Catherine Ngai NEW YORK Reuters U S pipeline operators are selling their underused space at steep discounts to keep crude flowing angering shippers and distorting an already opaque market for oil trading Pipeline firms such as Plains All American N PAA and TransCanada Corp TO TRP move about 10 million barrels of crude around the United States every day For pipeline operators to secure financing to build pipelines and storage facilities they need oil producers refiners and traders to sign long term contracts to use space on the pipelines Pipeline firms can then use the guaranteed revenue from those contracts as collateral Firms shipping on the pipeline have historically benefited from the long term deals because they offered a discount compared to the price of buying space occasionally But now in the wake of a two year oil price crash pipeline firms are still struggling to keep their lines full So their marketing arms are offering steep discounts to ad hoc buyers of pipeline capacity which irritates customers whose long term contracts are now more expensive than spot purchases If I were a producer with a long term contract I would be very unhappy at the present time said Rick Smead managing director of advisory services at RBN Energy in Houston But the reality is that when they signed contracts they were trapped Eight pipeline operators contacted by Reuters for this story declined to comment on their discounted spot pricing or the secondary market for pipeline capacity Some of those pipeline firms are offering prices as low as 25 percent of federally regulated rates creating a secondary market that undercuts shippers with long term contracts according to four sources at companies that regularly ship on the pipelines For a graphic detailing how the discount deals work see The discounts emerged after a global glut and crashing oil prices caused many shippers to let their pipeline contracts lapse or declare bankruptcy More than a dozen producers traders and refiners told Reuters they were angry and frustrated that these discount deals have become a mainstay They declined to be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly The contract and regulatory framework of the industry makes it difficult for them to bargain down their own long term contracts leaving them paying more for the pipeline space than occasional shippers competing to send oil through the same lines This gives the occasional shippers the edge in delivering cheaper crude to potential buyers at the end of the line DEEP DISCOUNTS TransCanada s 700 000 barrel per day Cushing Marketlink pipeline which carries oil from Cushing Oklahoma to Texas refineries has long term rates of between 1 63 and 2 93 a barrel to transport heavy crude while occasional shippers typically paid 3 The industry downturn since 2014 has reduced demand from occasional shippers to use the line at that price Earlier this year TransCanada s marketing arm offered customers the right to send crude through the line at a tariff of between 80 to 90 cents traders using the line said At the end of 2016 the rate offered was as low 30 to 40 cents Even with the discounts the line rarely reached 70 percent capacity TransCanada declined to comment Pipeline operators agree to charge specific tariffs for sending oil through the lines when they sign long term contracts with oil shippers Those rates are known as committed tariffs and are subject to approval by the U S Federal Energy Regulatory Commission FERC The FERC also reviews the rates paid by occasional shippers known as uncommitted tariffs The FERC declined to comment on the secondary market and on the tariffs that the marketing arms of pipeline operators are charging in that market AGGRESSIVE MARKETING Most of the 10 largest U S pipeline operators such as Enbridge TO ENB and Enterprise Products Partners N EPD have established their own marketing or trading arms that are reselling space Last year TransCanada which operates the massive Keystone pipeline system became the most recent player to open a unit to trade oil and resell pipeline space A few such as Plains have had marketing arms for more than a decade but in the past they had mostly just sold or traded space that went unused by major producers who had committed to long term contracts On lines such as TransCanada s big producers such as ExxonMobil N XOM and Suncor Energy N SU account for up to 90 percent of the flow in a pipeline The remaining 10 percent is sold to occasional shippers Suncor and ExxonMobil declined to comment With the three year rout in oil the volume accounted for in long term contracts has fallen and the marketing arms have gone from simply selling occasional space to needing to make big deals to fill the lines The practice has become so widespread that even pipeline operators who had previously said they disliked the emergence of the secondary market have now joined the fray Magellan Midstream Partners N MMP for instance in November applied to the FERC to establish a marketing arm citing the more favorable terms other firms can offer customers The move came after Magellan had declined for years to run its own operation out of fear that it would compete with its own customers The secondary market is formed by marketing firms signing up to long term contracts with their parent companies the pipeline owners The marketing firms become like committed customers to the line and pay the same rates for the space as the firms with long term contracts Those marketing firms book a paper loss for shipping the volumes at a discount But the sales keep the pipelines more full which makes the parent firm look better to investors who use pipeline volume as a key metric to judge those firms Some companies have felt the pinch of the paper losses Genesis Energy LP N GEL a Houston based midstream firm with a market cap of 3 6 billion said its supply and logistics unit saw fourth quarter revenues fall by 15 percent from a year earlier The company s Chief Executive Grant Sims during a recent earnings call cited volume cannibalization for the decline saying that it was forced to compete in a market in which participants were willing to lose money Genesis declined to comment further to Reuters Ed Longanecker president of the Texas Independent Producers Royalty Owners Association said tensions between producers and midstream firms become more strained in a low price environment with producers at the mercy of an extremely competitive market crude oil storage tanks at their tank farm in Cushing alt Reuters File Photo Pipelines run to Enbridge Inc s crude oil storage tanks at their tank farm in Cushing rel external image |
XOM | Shell Exxon to appeal latest Groningen production cap | The NAM joint venture between Royal Dutch Shell LON RDSa RDS A RDS B and Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM says it will appeal against the Dutch government s plan to lower a production cap at the Groningen natural gas field by another 10 The 50 50JV says it has been left in an impossible position by being told it may continue production vital to supply homes with gas without guarantees that it is meeting safety standards The Dutch government has lowered production at Groningen several times over the past three years due to small earthquakes triggered by work there Now read |
XOM | Rosneft sells 20 of Russian gas field to Chinese company for 1 1B | Rosneft OTC RNFTF says it hopes to access China s domestic gas market after completing a 1 1B deal to sell 20 of a Russian gas field to Beijing Gas The field located in east Siberia has proved natural gas reserves of 9 8B cm Rosneft also says it may build a liquefied natural gas plant in the far east using exclusively its own resources and gas reserves although the base scenario for monetizing gas reserves in the Sakhalin 1 project remains building an LNG plant together with Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM Now read |
CSCO | Weak telecom spending emerging markets weigh on Cisco forecast | Reuters Network equipment maker Cisco Systems Inc forecast current quarter profit below analysts average estimate weighed down by capital budget cuts at telecom service providers and weak sales in emerging markets
Cisco s shares reversed course in extended trading following the forecast and fell 1 percent They had risen after the company reported a better than expected revenue and profit for the first quarter
Service provider is the big challenge that s due to two to three U S service providers who have dramatically slowed the order rates with us Chief Executive John Chambers said on a post earnings conference call with analysts
AT T the No 2 U S telecom services provider said last week that it would trim its 2015 capital spending outlook to 18 billion from 21 billion
Cisco has also struggled with sluggish sales and increased competition in emerging markets The company said sales in China fell by a third in the first quarter
Revenue from U S service providers dropped 18 percent while it declined 6 percent in emerging countries the company said
The company forecast adjusted profit of between 50 52 cents per share and revenue growth in the range of 4 7 percent for the second quarter ending January
Analysts were expecting a profit of 53 cents per share according to Thomson Reuters I B E S
Cisco reported better than expected first quarter revenue and profit thanks to an increase in demand for its new high end switches and routers
The company also said it planned to appoint senior vice president Kelly Kramer as chief financial officer Current CFO Frank Calderoni has said he would step down effective Jan 1
Total revenue rose to 12 25 billion from 12 09 billion
Net profit fell to 1 83 billion or 35 cents per share from 2 billion or 37 cents per share a year earlier
On an adjusted basis earnings were 54 cents per share
Analysts had expected a profit of 52 cents per share on revenue of 12 16 billion
Cisco s shares closed at 25 11 on the Nasdaq on Wednesday
Reporting By Lehar Maan and Soham Chatterjee in Bangalore Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila and Don Sebastian |
VZ | Thursday Uncertain | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday uncertain
ES pivot 1926 92 Holding below is bearish
Friday bias lower technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader VZ not a swing trade buy
Recap
My apologies to all my readers for having missed last night s post As it turned out Tuesday s action was pretty much general continuation So now that we re back on track let s move ahead and figure out where Thursday is going
The technicals
The Dow Monday night I mentioned some doubts as to whether the rally we had could be sustained into Tuesday Turns out it couldn t as we got another day of losses Those were followed on Wednesday with more losses with the Dow down 0 31 on a short stubby hammer Indicators are still a fair ways away from oversold but the stochastic is finally starting to curve around for a bullish crossover So now we have at least a minor indication of a reversal but we remain in a tight descending RTC Bottom line it s still too soon to call the Dow higher on that basis
The VIX Well this was one unusual thing I did miss on Tuesday The VIX put in a huge inverted hammer that looked like an excellent reversal sign And indeed on Wednesday the VIX moved lower by 1 38 to finish with a perfect doji star Indicators are wandering around between overbought and oversold but the stochastic looks like it is now moving into position for a bearish crossover Another unusual point is that the VIX fell on a day when the market was also lower Overall the VIX remains in a descending RTC so I d say there s a good chance that we move lower again on Thursday
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower once again at 12 09 AM EDT with ES down 0 34 After a week in a steep descending RTC on Wednesday ES put in a decent reversal candle in the form of a long legged spinning top Indicators have now fallen very nearly to oversold and the stochastic is definitely curving around in preparation for a bullish crossover Unfortunately ES is showing no interest in the wee hours of going any place other than down again as it remains in a steep descending RTC
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1938 25 to 1926 92 But even that isn t enough to put ES back above its new pivot as it just continues falling away from it So this indicator continues bearish tonight
Dollar index Monday night I mentioned that the dollar looked bullish And on Tuesday it did indeed gap up on a stubby spinning top That was followed on Wednesday with a 0 25 decline on a red candle that formed a perfect bearish engulfing pattern It also sent indicators slightly lower just before they reached overbought The stochastic is not yet in position for a bearish crossover but it looks like that could happen very soon Overall this chart looks negative for Thursday
Euro Monday night I mentioned the euro fall through its 200 day MA as a bearish sign And indeed on Tuesday it continued to move lower closing at 1 1147 Then on Wednesday it staged a comeback with a bullish engulfing pattern to recoup all of Tuesday s losses and then some closing right back up to 1 1222 But in the overnight it seems to be giving some of that back again However we now have indicators rising off of oversold and a just completed bullish stochastic crossover So the majority seems to vote that the euro goes higher on Thursday
Transportation After a bearish trigger on Monday the Trans took a bad fall on Tuesday That was followed by a smaller 0 44 decline on Wednesday on a small red hammer The indicators are now all falling towards oversold and the stochastic is beginning to curve around for a bullish crossover So we do have a fair reversal warning in place and there s a chance the trans could finally move higher on Thursday
Tonight we have a decidedly mixed picture with most of the charts looking ready to move higher but the futures guiding lower and oil looking ready to take another leg lower And with the overall bias clearly now running to the downside it s just too risky to call Thursday higher without all the stars lined up So I just have to shrug and call Thursday uncertain Sometimes that s just how it is
Single Stock Trader
I ve been unable to get behind Verizon NYSE VZ for some time now It s just been one thing after another with this stock and we haven t really had any good swing buy opportunities After a possible doji star reversal warning on Tuesday it was disconfirmed entirely on Wednesday with another leg down But things may be about to change because on Wednesday Verizon finally hit its lower BB and indicators have now gone oversold More importantly the stochastic looks like it s finally about to execute a bullish crossover However we remain in a descending RTC so we re not quite at my preferred buy point yet But Thursday we ll be watching very carefully |
VZ | Unlikely Reversal Leads Tuesday Lower | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday lower
ES pivot 1890 17 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias higher technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader VZ no longer a swing trade buy
Recap
Last night demonstrated the problems we have on Sunday nights calling Monday being as most of the information is fairly old by that point The charts actually didn t look too bad but I hesitated calling Monday higher because the futures weren t participating As it turns out it was good that I called Monday merely uncertain rather than higher because the Dow took an ugly 313 plunge and the SPX fared even worse There are some interesting charts to look at tonight so let s get right to them and see where Tuesday may be headed
The Technicals
The Dow On Monday the Dow disconfirmed last Friday s bullish setup on a descending RTC exit with a nearly 2 dump that took it right down to its lower BB stopping just short of the 16 000 mark But even that still leaves the indicators only moderately oversold and continuing to fall The stochastic is now lying flat on the ground and thus has no predictive power Perhaps more importantly OBV continues a decline that began way back in the middle of July currently running at 872 million That s not a good sign And with a red marubozu on the books there s no sign yet of a reversal on this chart
The VIX Last night I thought the VIX was headed higher on Monday and that s just where it went with a big 17 gap up green candle that sent the indicators overbought With the stochastic continuing to rise but still nowhere near in position for a bearish crossover VVIX also continuing to rise and the upper BB not too far away at 30 it looks to me like the VIX still has more room to run on Tuesday
Market Index Futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 23 AM EDT with ES down 0 11 ES had a simply miserable day on Monday with its worst performance in a month closing just off the day s lows and falling through its lower BB at 1888 It looks to me very much like ES is intent on retesting last month s lows around 1863 We could easily hit that level on Tuesday In the meantime there s absolutely no sign of a reversal higher even though the indicators are all now extremely oversold The continued drift lower in the overnight isn t helping matters either
ES Daily Pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls once again from 1926 83 to 1890 17 And with ES unable to make any headway it remains below its new pivot and this indicator simply continues bearish
Dollar Index Last night I said that the dollar looked lower for Monday and that was where it went down 0 26 on a second red candle in a row this one just touching its 200 day MA before recovering a bit Indicators remain overbought but the stochastic looks like it s trying to gear up for a bearish crossover So it appears that there is more downside in store on Tuesday for the dollar
Euro Meanwhile the euro continues to jiggle around in a range bounded by 1 1141 on the lower end and about 1 1254 on the upper end It did put in another gain on Monday closing back up to 1 1244 a move that took it right up through its 200 day MA This confirmation of Friday s lopsided spinning top and the 200 MA breakthrough makes it look like there s more upside possible for the euro on Tuesday
Transportation Last night I mentioned that the trans looked positive for Monday based on a bullish looking candle last Friday Well that of course went right out the window on Monday as the trans lost two and a quarter percent to almost touch their lower BB at 7637 That also took them right back into their descending RTC thus canceling last Friday s bullish setup On Monday we closed right on recent support but with the lower BB now starting to fall away there is some concern here and I definitely cannot call the trans higher for Tuesday based on this red marubozu
All the charts are looking pretty grim tonight but they re also getting pretty extended It s starting to make me think we re due for a reversal soon but technically I just don t see that happening on Tuesday So I ll just have to call Tuesday lower I d be delighted to be proven wrong
Single Stock Trader
On Monday Verizon NYSE VZ was of course a loser just like almost the entire rest of the Dow and a gap down red candle confirmed Friday s red spinning top to send Verizon right back into its descending RTC So much for the bullish setup Last night I said it would be good to get out of this trade and it looks like I was right Having now taken out support at 43 81 and with no new reversal candles insight it is still too soon to call this stock higher despite the fact that all the indicators are now considerably oversold |
VZ | Wednesday Higher | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday higher
ES pivot 1875 08 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias higher technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap
It was another crazy roller coaster day on Wall Street yesterday and it finished with another mixed market with the Dow and the SPX closing higher but the NASDAQ finishing lower The Dow was up then it was down then it was up then it was down before a late afternoon rally caused it to finish with that 47 point advance that caused my call to be wrong but not by very much So with another interesting candle in the books let s move on to close out the miserable month of September by figuring out which way Wednesday may wend
The technicals
The Dow After the dust settled the Dow had put in a 0 30 advance on a long legged green spinning top sitting right at the bottom of Monday s big dump As the lower BB continues to fall away but at least support of 16 000 was respected and the indicators have now started rising from oversold levels This is an encouraging reversal sign for Wednesday
The VIX I was wrong about the VIX on Tuesday I thought it would move higher but instead in a bit of bullish divergence it fell 2 9 on a day the Dow and the SPX closed higher but on a small green spinning top that sent the indicators a little further into overbought territory However the candle is in a bullish harami position so I wouldn t make too much of that At this point it s hard to tell which way the VIX goes on Wednesday But I tend to favor continued lower at this point
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 12 53 AM EDT with ES up 0 77 After Monday s big dump on Tuesday ES put in a nice reversal warning in the form of a long legged doji star sitting right on its lower BB as the indicators have now hit extreme oversold levels We haven t quite retested the August lows yet but it looks like the overnight is wanting to confirm Tuesday s candle so we could be looking at a rally on Wednesday
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1890 17 to 1875 08 That s finally enough to bring ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish
Dollar index Last night I wrote that it looked like the dollar would move lower again on Tuesday and that s just what it did with another 0 20 loss that drove it right back down through its 200 day MA That gives us a bearish three black crows pattern and has started the indicators all moving lower off of overbought The stochastic now has a freshly completed bearish crossover so there s nothing bullish about this chart tonight and it looks like the dollar still has lower to go on Wednesday
Euro Similarly last night I called the euro higher for Tuesday and that s just where it went climbing right back up to 1 1272 on a green spinning top That s a weak reversal sign but with the indicators still rising and not yet overbought it has to be taken with a grain of salt
Transportation Last night despite some reversal signs I was cautious about calling the Trans higher on Tuesday They did manage a modest 0 32 gain but it was on a long legged doji star With indicators now extremely oversold it looks like the trans may be in a bottoming process I still think we re due for a move higher and it might come as early as Wednesday but it s not certain
The last day of September is historically quite bearish but tonight the charts are generally suggesting that we ve gotten overextended to the downside and a rally may be at hand So I m going to just go ahead and call Wednesday higher as we close out the month and the quarter
Single Stock Trader
Last night I was cautious about calling Verizon NYSE VZ higher and that proved to be a good move because it fell further with a third spinning top in a row on Tuesday as it continues to dribble down its lower BB Indicators remain oversold but have not yet begun to put in a convincing bottom We are still in a descending RTC so once again this is not a swing trade buy |
VZ | Thursday Higher | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday higher
ES pivot 1896 83 Holding above is bullish
Friday bias higher technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap
Despite the bearish reputation of the last day of September this year the Dow managed a decent 1 47 gain Nevertheless it finished both the month and the quarter in the red So with the ugly month of September out of the way let s now move on to the scary month of October and see where Thursday may be headed
The technicals
The Dow The Dow took a nice 236 top on Wednesday to make a tall green marubozu that lifted the indicators off of oversold and finally caused the stochastic to complete a bullish crossover It also marked the second day trading outside the recent descending RTC and so that s a bullish trigger The only concern on this chart is resistance around 16 315 But it does appear that the Dow still has some room to run on Thursday
The VIX Last night I said it looks like the VIX had lower to go again on Wednesday And that s just what happened with the VIX falling nearly another 9 on a gap down doji star But that still that leaves the indicators overbought and the stochastic on the verge of forming a bearish crossover So while this is a bullish reversal indicator it is also one which requires confirmation and from the looks of it my guess is that we re not done going lower yet
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 12 15 AM EDT with ES up 0 76 On Wednesday ES had its best day in almost a month as it confirmed Tuesday s doji star in a big way with a tall green marubozu that brought it all the way back up to 1908 75 That also finally exited the two week long declining RTC for a bullish setup It also pulled away from the lower BB which is now falling away from us and sent the indicators rising off of oversold as well as confirming a bullish crossover from the stochastic So everything is looking pretty bullish for this chart except for the fact that there s no follow through in the overnight which is putting in a nontrivial decline And that s a concern
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1875 08 to 1896 83 ES remains well above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish tonight
Dollar index So much for the classic three black crows pattern Last night I thought the dollar would move lower again on Wednesday especially after having pierced its 200 day MA But no instead it gained half a percent on a stubby spinning top perched above the top of Tuesday s big decline That still leaves the indicators overbought and the stochastic in the middle of a bearish crossover so this could be a one and done My guess is that the next move is lower but at this point who knows
Euro On Wednesday the euro confirmed Tuesday s spinning top in a big way with a massive decline that plunged right back through its 200 day MA to close at 1 1179 on a tall red marubozu That was enough to send the indicators moving lower before ever having reached overbought and the stochastic is now curving around for a bearish crossover before having reached overbought itself The overnight seems to be looking for some support but it s not clear that it will find it so it looks to me like after such a big move through the 200 MA on Wednesday there s more room to run lower on Thursday
Transportation And finally I was right about the Trans moving higher though I was a little surprised that they gained 1 10 on Wednesday That is the second day we ve traded outside the descending RTC so that is a bullish trigger Indicators remain oversold and the stochastic is still flat on the ground so it looks like the trans have more upside potential than downside risk at this point
The first day of most months is bullish and though that isn t always true of October tonight we have a nice technical base to work off of and the futures are guiding sufficiently higher that all in all I m going to go ahead and call Thursday higher
Single Stock Trader Last night I still wasn t ready to commit to Verizon NYSE VZ despite the likelihood that the Dow was going to close higher on Wednesday And that was a good thing too because Verizon ended up being one of only two Dow stocks that moved lower on Wednesday That left us with two side by side red spinning tops and indicators that continue to hover at highly oversold levels But until we see some confirmation of these reversal warnings it s still too early to call Verizon a swing buy |
VZ | Tuesday Uncertain | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday uncertain
ES pivot 1964 00 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader NYSE VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap
Last Friday was something of a question mark as all the charts were posting reversal warnings But in the end I was correct in ignoring those because on Monday the Dow posted a big 304 point pop that extended its winning streak to essentially five in a row The market is now clearly on a roll so we need to see how much longer this can go on as we move ahead to the charts for Tuesday
The technicals
The Dow The Dow was quite impressive on Monday putting in a 1 85 gain on a tall green marubozu that took it all the way to its upper BB That also sent the indicators overbought for the first time in three weeks and caused the stochastic to show the first signs of curving around for a bearish crossover So those are warning signs of a move lower but they all require confirmation Basically it s still too soon to call this one lower for Tuesday
The VIX Last night I called for the VIX to hit it lower BB at 19 30 one on Monday Turns out the low for the day was actually 19 14 as the VIX put in a stubby red gap down hammer We have now bounced off the lower BB but the indicators continue to fall and have not yet reached oversold And the stochastic has still not begun to curve around for a bullish crossover So while we do have a reversal warning now it is a weak one and I need some confirmation of a move higher on Tuesday before calling an end to the current decline in the VIX
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 48 AM EDT with ES down 0 20 ES had a great day on Monday making this rally now four in a row It is now quite clearly more than a relief rally or a DCB as September s big descending RTC is definitely done for We are still a ways from resistance at 1988 but after having run hard for four days in a row and with the indicators just short of overbought and a stochastic beginning to curve around for a bearish crossover I m starting to wonder if ES has enough gas left in the tank to continue moving higher on Tuesday
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1923 25 to 1964 00 That once again leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish
Dollar index On Monday the dollar confirmed Friday s giant gap down doji star in a big way as it gained 0 28 stopping only at its 200 day MA Indicators are now wandering around halfway between oversold and overbought so there s not much guidance there However the Friday reversal followed by a nice bullish confirmation makes it look like the dollar still has enough gas in the tank to put in another advance on Tuesday
Euro Last night I said there continued to be no direction in the euro and Monday s action did nothing to change that view as the euro gave up all of last Friday s gains and then some falling right back down to 1 1192 and stopping exactly on its 200 day MA The indicators are now halfway between oversold and overbought so there is nothing to learn from them The question is will the MA provide support or not Right now it s looking in the overnight as though it just might Still with a bearish candle on the books on Monday it s not at all clear that the euro won t continue lower on Tuesday
Transportation I wasn t ready to commit to the trans last night either which is too bad because they outperformed even the Dow on Monday with a giant 2 31 green marubozu That was enough to send the trans overbought even though the stochastic is still rising and has not begun to curve around for a bearish crossover My only concern right now is that this chart looks like it is going exponential and that would make it ripe for a pullback which could come any day at this point
Accuracy
Technically tonight most of the signs remain bullish but there are a few areas of concern like the VIX and the futures So I m hesitant to call the market higher again particularly after such a nice run On the other hand there s not really enough bearish signs to call it lower So I guess all that leaves is Tuesday uncertain
Single Stock Trader
Last night I was playing it conservatively after watching Verizon bleed for more than two weeks straight But on Monday it turned out that last Friday s hammer was in fact the bottom as Verizon posted a big 2 71 gap up marubozu on Monday That was enough to vault it right out of its two week long descending RTC send all the indicators rising off of oversold and confirm the bullish crossover from the stochastic So while we missed the bottom on this one this chart now looks like a buy to me |
VZ | Without Market Clarity Wednesday Expected To Be Lower | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday lower
ES pivot 1971 08 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias lower technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ not a swing trade buy
Recap
Last night I was getting mixed messages fro the charts and therefore called Tuesday uncertain And hey lookee the Dow ended up just 14 points while the SPX dropped seven There was really no way to call something like that So let s continue right on to Wednesday and see if we get some more clarity
Unfortunately this was yet another day when I kinda just ran out of time to do the actual writing so what you get is another famous Night Owl Lite All results no blathering We ll resume the usual chart analysis tomorrow
The Technicals
are skipped tonight
Accuracy
While I didn t write my usual piece about each chart tonight I did analyze them and I m seeing a number of decent reversal signs and unlike last night the charts are in sufficient agreement now to call Wednesday lower
Single Stock Trader
Verizon Communications Inc NYSE VZ looking toppy right now |
VZ | Thursday Lower As Futures Move Lower Non Trivially | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday lower
ES pivot 1979 67 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias lower technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader NYSE VZ not a swing trade buy
Recap
Well that was interesting I was reasonably certain that with the Dow having hit its upper BB on Tuesday with a spinning top reversal candle it would go lower on Wednesday But no such luck Instead it gained 122 points to continue its recent week and a half long winning streak So lets check the charts to see how that changes the picture for Thursday
The technicals
The Dow On Wednesday the Dow rejected Tuesday s spinning top in a big way to continue crawling up its upper BB for the third day in a row That has now left the indicators all extremely overbought with RSI having hit 98 64 Of note too is that the stochastic is now perfectly primed for a bearish crossover that could happen any moment So although this is not a bearish reversal candle it is questionable how much further the Dow can move without reversing course at least for a day
The VIX Similarly on Wednesday the VIX rejected the spinning top that it put in on Tuesday to descend further on an inverted hammer to close down to 18 40 It is tracking its lower BB and has hit zero and that s as low as it goes folks The stochastic has actually fallen off the bottom of my chart and is now primed for a bullish crossover So with a reversal candle in place here I would give better than even odds that the VIX goes higher on Thursday
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 23 AM EDT with ES down 0 52 I based my call for a lower close Wednesday in part on a red spinning top reversal candle in ES from Tuesday Instead on Wednesday ES put in a tall green marubozu that brought it all the way back up to month long resistance at 1988 sent the indicators to highly overbought levels and moved the stochastic into position for a bearish crossover However we remain in a rising RTC and this trend is far from over On the other hand the new overnight is experiencing a fairly significant move lower and that bodes ill for Thursday
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1971 08 to 1979 67 That move now puts ES back below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish
Dollar index After bumping into its 200 day MA on Monday the dollar gave it all back on Tuesday and then some on a tall red candle But on Wednesday it finished essentially unchanged on a small doji star The indicators continue falling but have not yet hit oversold so what we have here is a reversal warning of a move higher but one which requires confirmation
Euro The euro meanwhile simply continues bouncing around in a two week long consolidation range bounded from below by 1 114 and from above by approximately 1 1300 After a nice gain on Tuesday it was unable to make any further headway on Wednesday and closed right back down to 1 1263 on a small red doji star And the new overnight isn t doing much of anything so this chart continues to remain conflicted without any clear direction I woudn t be trading this currency at the moment
Transportation Finally on Wednesday the trans outperformed the Dow by nearly a factor of two They easily cleared resistance at 8085 on a tall green marubozu that keeps them in a nearly two week long rising RTC Indicators are now very overbought and the stochastic is in position to form a bearish crossover any day now But without an actual reversal candle I cannot call this chart lower just yet
Accuracy
It sometimes happens that I am a day early in my calls and I m thinking that this is one of those times All of the forces that were in play last night are still there tonight only more so And this time we re getting some better confirmation in the form of futures that are moving lower non trivially So I m going to give it another try and once again call Thursday lower
Single Stock Trader
I was thinking that Verizon looked toppy last night and indeed it came back in on Wednesday confirming Tuesday s tall inverted hammer with a lopsided green long legged spinning top Indicators continue to rise though but have not yet hit overbought That leaves this chart in a very mixed up state but it is definitely not in my preferred swing buy mode at the moment |
XOM | Analysts like deal that makes EQT largest U S natural gas producer | EQT Corp NYSE EQT was today s biggest loser shedding 8 9 even as its acquisition of Rice Energy NYSE RICE makes the company the top U S natural gas producer based on Q1 production The combined output for EQT and Rice in the quarter totaled 3 6B cf day beating out Exxon Mobil s NYSE XOM 3B cf day and Chesapeake Energy s NYSE CHK 2 56B cf day EQT appears to be empire building and no other driller is likely to submit a successful bid for Rice because EQT s footprint overlaps with Rice s in southwestern Pennsylvania and the two companies have similar midstream operations Mizuho Securities says Wells Fargo NYSE WFC analysts like the deal given significant overlap of high quality core acreage that should drive EQT s estimate of 2 5B in development and economic synergies as a combined entity while also providing additional growth potential for midstream entities EQT Midstream NYSE EQM and EQT GP Holdings NYSE EQGP EQT is a decade behind in fracking technology used by industry leaders in Marcellus Utica Atlas Consulting s Dallas Salazar tells Reuters EQT needs a lot and Rice offers a lot of what it needs Now read |
XOM | Oil traders brace for storm expected to hit U S Gulf Coast this week | Reuters Oil traders from Texas to Louisiana braced on Tuesday for supply disruptions as a potential tropical storm developing in the U S Gulf of Mexico threatened to hit refining and production centers with wind and rain later this week The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port the largest privately owned crude storage terminal in the United States suspended vessel offloading operations early on Tuesday morning ahead of the storm but said it expected no interruptions to deliveries from its hub in Clovelly Louisiana nFWN1JH0MO Exxon Mobil Corp NYSE XOM Phillips 66 NYSE PSX and Motiva Enterprises have said the potential storm has not yet impacted operations at its facilities Royal Dutch Shell LON RDSa on Tuesday said some offshore well operations had been suspended but production was currently unaffected The weather system in the Gulf of Mexico has a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next day or two the U S National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory Currently located about 265 miles 430 km south of Morgan City Louisiana the weather system is expected to approach the southwest Louisiana coast late on Wednesday and move inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas on Thursday the hurricane center said The storm could strengthen slightly before it reaches the coast the NHC said It extended warnings for the storm westward to High Island Texas and for heavy rainfall across most portions of the Gulf Coast The weather system now has maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour 65 kilometers per hour the Miami based forecaster said Satellite imagery shows that the center of the disturbance is gradually becoming better defined and it is likely that the system will become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today the NHC said on Tuesday The storm currently designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Three could also cause tornados later on Tuesday from south central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle Crude oil prices for physical delivery along the U S Gulf Coast were relatively stable on Tuesday morning but cash gasoline prices rose as traders expected refineries along the Gulf Coast to get hit with heavy rains which may result in flooding Mars Sour crude was last discussed around a 1 60 a barrel discount to U S crude futures little changed from Monday while Louisiana Light Sweet crude the light sweet benchmark was unchanged at a 1 95 a barrel premium to West Texas Intermediate WTI Meanwhile prompt U S Gulf Coast conventional gasoline traded at a 2 cents per gallon discount to the RBOB futures contract its strongest level in four months Meanwhile southeast of the Gulf of Mexico tropical storm Bret is expected to begin weakening later Tuesday and dissipate on Thursday That storm located about 315 miles 505 km east of Curacao and packing maximum sustained winds of 45 miles 75 km per hour is moving west northwest and will continue to proceed across the southeastern Caribbean Sea the hurricane center said The Gulf of Mexico is home to about 17 percent of U S crude output and 5 percent of dry natural gas output daily according to the U S Energy Information Administration More than 45 percent of the nation s refining capacity is located along the U S Gulf Coast which also is home to 51 percent of total U S natural gas processing capability WeatherBell Analytics LLC forecast 11 to 13 named tropical storms in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season according to a May outlook issued by the company
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov 30 and has an average of 9 6 named storms 5 9 hurricanes and 2 3 intense hurricanes every year The median number of named storms between 1981 and 2010 was 12 per year according to Colorado State University s Tropical Meteorology Project |
XOM | Oil firms could waste trillions if climate targets reached report | By Ron Bousso LONDON Reuters Oil giants including Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM and Royal Dutch Shell LON RDSa risk spending more than a third of their budgets by 2025 on oil and gas projects that will not be feasible if international climate targets are to be met a thinktank says More than 2 trillion of planned investments in oil and gas projects by 2025 risk becoming redundant if governments stick to targets to lower carbon emissions to limit global warming to 2 degrees celsius according to a report by the Carbon Tracker thinktank and a group of institutional investors The report analyzed the costs of oil and gas projects planned for approval by 69 companies into 2025 It then compared their carbon intensity to targets needed to meet the 2 degree limit set by the 2015 Paris agreement which would lead to a decline in fossil fuel consumption According to the report Exxon the world s top publicly traded oil and gas company risks spending up to half its budget on new fields that will not be needed Shell and France s Total would see up to 40 percent of their budgets outside the limits Fossil fuel companies have come under growing pressure from investors to reduce carbon emissions and increase transparency over future investments Sweden s largest national pension fund AP7 one of the authors of the report said last week it had wound down investments in six companies including Exxon that it says violate the Paris climate agreement The world s top fossil fuel companies have voiced support for the Paris agreement reached by nearly 200 countries Many of them have urged governments to impose a tax on carbon emissions to support cleaner sources of energy such as gas President Donald Trump said this month he would withdraw the United States from the Paris accord which he said would undermine the U S economy and weaken American national sovereignty The report gave the example of five of the most expensive projects including the extension of the giant Kashagan field in Kazakhstan and the Bonga Southwest and Bonga North in Nigeria which will not be needed within the 2 degree scenario Around two thirds of the potential oil and gas production which is surplus to requirements under the 2 degree scenario is controlled by the private sector demonstrating how the risk is skewed towards listed companies rather than national oil companies the report said On the other hand Saudi Arabia s national oil company Aramco widely considered the lowest cost oil producer in the world would only see up to 10 percent of its production uneconomical under the carbon emissions scenario the report said The report s authors said their discussions with oil companies had shown they wanted to remain flexible to respond to future developments and possible changes in the oil price
International oil companies including Shell and BP LON BP have rejected the idea that some of their assets could end up redundant saying the reserves they hold are too small to be affected by any long term decline in demand |
XOM | Argentine ADRs could have rough session after MSCI decision | MSCI last night surprised by not upgrading Argentina NYSEARCA ARGT to emerging market status meaning its stocks will not be able to be added to emerging markets indices Probably the most popular of Argentine ADRs is YPF and it s down 10 premarket BBVA MC BBVA Banco Frances NYSE BFR fell 7 6 after hours Cresud S A NASDAQ CRESY dropped 6 5 Grupo Financciero NASDAQ GGAL 5 8 Pampa Energia NYSE PAM 7 Other ADRs of note Banco Macro NYSE BMA Grupo Supervielle NYSE SUPV Petrobas Argentina NYSE PZE Telecom Argentina NYSE TEO Irsa Inversiones y Representaciones NYSE IRS Tenaris NYSE TS Ternium NYSE TX Transportadora de Gas del Sur NYSE TGS Now read |
XOM | Statoil gets Norway s OK for Njord Bauge developments | Statoil OL STL STO 1 9 says Norwegian authorities approved its 2 3B plan for the Njord and Bauge developments in the Norwegian Sea STO plans to upgrade the Njord A platform and the Njord Bravo FPSO vessel in an effort to recover resources remaining on the Njord and Hyme fields which are believed to hold 175M boe Oil has been produced from the Njord Field since 1997 and STO says the upgrades will enable the field to produce for another 20 years STO is operator for both the Njord and Bauge field with respective ownership stakes of 20 and 35 Now read |
XOM | Future World Economic Growth In Big Trouble As Oil Discoveries Fall | Future global economic growth is in serious trouble as oil discoveries fell to historic lows last year The International Energy Agency IEA reported that the sharp downturn in capital spending by the conventional oil sector was due to extremely low oil prices
As the oil price fell to 30 in 2016 oil companies cut their exploration and capital expenditures by 25 40 For example ExxonMobil NYSE XOM the largest oil company in the United States cut their capital expenditures by 26 in 2016 from 26 billion in 2015 to 16 billion last year This had a profound impact on new oil discoveries
According to the
Oil discoveries declined to 2 4 billion barrels in 2016 compared with an average of 9 billion barrels per year over the past 15 years Meanwhile the volume of conventional resources sanctioned for development last year fell to 4 7 billion barrels 30 lower than the previous year as the number of projects that received a final investment decision dropped to the lowest level since the 1940s
By taking the IEA s oil discovery data and comparing it to the total amount of conventional oil consumed by the world in 2016 here is the following chart
The world consumed 69 million barrels per day of conventional oil last year which equaled a total of 25 billion barrels source IEA report above Which means conventional global oil discoveries of 2 4 billion barrels were less than 10 of total world conventional oil consumption This is extremely bad news
To understand the breakdown in the different oil types the IEA provided the following data
Conventional oil production of 69 mb d represents by far the largest share of global oil output of 85 mb d In addition 6 5 mb d come from liquids production from the US shale plays and the rest is made up of other natural gas liquids and unconventional oil sources such as oil sands and heavy oil
Global Conventional oil production was 69 million barrels per day mbd of the total 85 mbd which included natural gas plant liquids and other unconventional sources such as shale oil U S heavy oil and tar sands Typically conventional oil is the higher quality cheaper to produce oil
Now what is even more alarming is that global oil discoveries have been much lower than production for quite some time The IEA also stated that the amount of world conventional oil discoveries averaged about 9 billion barrels for the past 15 years If we assume that the world was producing 65 mbd of conventional oil for the past 15 years it was likely higher the world was only replacing about 38 of its annual oil consumption
Here are the oil figures
65 mbd X 365 24 billion barrels
9 billion average annual barrels oil discovery 24 billion barrels consumed 38
So not only did the world only discover 10 of the conventional oil it consumed last year it has only been replacing a little more than a third of what it has been consuming for in the past 15 years This is extremely bad news and it is starting to catch up to us
I will be writing more energy articles showing how the situation is becoming more dire for the U S and global oil industries I am waiting for the top U S oil companies to release their detailed SEC quarterly results in a week to provide more information but they have already released some results
For example ExxonMobil cut its capital expenditures another 19 during Q1 2017 versus the same period last year Falling exploration and capital expenditures will grind to a halt future oil discoveries Investors need to understand that this will impact global economic growth quite negatively in the future |
XOM | PetroChina PTR Swings To Q1 Profit On Higher Oil Prices | Chinese energy giant PetroChina Co Ltd NYSE PTR announced first quarter 2017 earnings of RMB 5 699 million or RMB 0 03 per diluted share compared with a loss of RMB 13 786 million or RMB 0 08 per diluted share a year earlier
Earnings per ADR came in at 44 cents Moreover China s dominant oil and gas producer s total revenue for the quarter rose 40 from the year ago period to RMB 493 559 million
The positive comparisons can be primarily attributable to higher oil prices which helped its biggest unit exploration and production to swing to profitability
PetroChina followed other big energy names from the country CNOOC Ltd NYSE CEO and Sinopec NYSE SNP in reporting encouraging results PetroChina Company Limited Price Consensus and EPS Surprise
Segment Performance
Upstream PetroChina one of the world s largest oil company by market value and 40 the size of ExxonMobil Corp NYSE XOM posted disappointing upstream output during the three months ended Mar 31 2017 In particular crude oil output accounting for 59 of the total fell 10 7 from the year ago period to 216 8 million barrels MMBbl
Marketable natural gas output was up by a meagre 0 9 to 899 8 billion cubic feet Bcf As a result PetroChina s total production of oil and natural gas declined 6 3 year over year to 366 8 million barrels of oil equivalent
However average realized crude oil price during the first quarter of 2017 was 51 34 per barrel representing an 88 3 jump from the year ago period This buoyed the upstream or exploration production segment results which posted an operating income of RMB 1 916 million turning around from the year ago operating loss of RMB 20 268 million A tight leash on unit operating costs that decreased 2 9 compared with the same period of last year also helped results
Downstream The Beijing based company s Refining Chemicals business generated an operating income of RMB 8 177 million This is down 44 from the year earlier period earnings of RMB 14 651 million The deterioration in the downstream division was due to tough market conditions
PetroChina s refinery division processed 245 6 MMBbl of crude oil during the three month period down 0 6 from 2016 The company produced 2 327 thousand tons of synthetic resin in the period a fall of 0 3 year over year besides manufacturing 1 451 thousand tons of ethylene up 2 1 It also produced 22 205 thousand tons of gasoline diesel and kerosene during the period against 22 312 thousand tons a year earlier
Natural Gas Pipelines A rise in natural gas sales and prices helped the Chinese behemoth s segment earnings And though PetroChina lost money to the tune of RMB 5 984 million on the sales of imported natural gas and liquefied natural gas LNG from Central Asia and Burma the losses were narrower compared with the first quarter of 2016
All these factors drove the Zacks Rank 5 Strong Sell group s natural gas business income to RMB 9 882 million in the period under review a substantial improvement from the year earlier profit of RMB 4 717 million You can see
Marketing In marketing operations the state owned group sold 38 639 thousand tons of gasoline diesel and kerosene during Jan Mar 2017 an increase of 4 1 year over year Greater volumes were accompanied by expanded refined products exports stress on high margin products and numerous marketing initiatives
As a result PetroChina was able to counter the adverse factors slow domestic refined products demand growth low prices and fierce competition to post a profit of RMB 2 922 million compared to just RMB 426 million recorded in the same period last year
Liquidity Capital Expenditure
At the end of the quarter the stock s cash balance was RMB 96 318 million while cash flow from operating activities was RMB 72 988 million Capital expenditure for the three months reached RMB 40 332 million down 20 from the year ago level
Sell These Stocks
Now Just released today s 220 Zacks Rank 5 Strong Sells demand urgent attention If any are lurking in your portfolio or Watch List they should be removed immediately These are sinister companies because many appear to be sound investments However from 1988 through 2016 stocks from our Strong Sell list have actually performed 6X worse than the S P 500 |
CSCO | Big Tech winning battle with patent trolls | By Andrew Chung and Dan Levine Reuters For two decades companies that buy software patents to sue technology giants have been the scourge of Silicon Valley Reviled as patent trolls they have attacked everything from Google s online ads to Apple s iPhone features sometimes winning hundreds of millions of dollars But now the trolls are in retreat from the tech titans interviews and data reviewed by Reuters show In the wake of several changes in U S law which make it easier to challenge software patents patent prices are plummeting the number of court fights is down and stock prices of many patent holding companies have fallen Some tech firms say they are punching up research budgets as legal costs shrink while support for major patent reform is under fire as trolls get trounced Their entire business model relies on intimidation and that has lost its edge said Efrat Kasznik president of intellectual property consulting firm Foresight Valuation Group If the patents are not enforceable in court anymore the troll has no legs to stand on Brokers who work with the patent acquisition companies acknowledge the new climate In some cases there are just no current buyers for these patents at all said Robert Aronoff founder of the patent brokerage Pluritas citing new legal standards for the change NetApp a Silicon Valley maker of sophisticated data storage devices last month used a new legal precedent to force a patent holder to pay its legal fees The judge called the case reckless and wasteful The new playing field allows NetApp to spend more on developing its own patents as opposed to litigation defense It is freeing up dollars said Douglas Luftman NetApp s chief intellectual property counsel To be sure not all litigious patent owning companies are losing ground Some with court tested patents are doing well And not all big tech companies are convinced of the change Cisco Systems Inc O CSCO has been at the forefront of the fight against infringement lawsuits and has not seen a drop in new suits in recent months said General Counsel Mark Chandler Cisco will continue to push for laws to stop warrantless lawsuits Chandler said Others see the need diminishing THE BIRTH OF TROLLS Big tech companies distinguish between their own intellectual property which they fiercely protect and those of their adversaries which they often dismiss as broadly worded and vague allowing holders to sue all manner of defendants The big tech companies note that the patent acquisition companies they label as trolls generally make no products but are solely in the business of buying patents and litigating to enforce them The putative trolls see a different world They buy patents from inventors and each other creating a marketplace that checks big tech companies sway and rely ultimately on a fair arbiter courts This can provide vital protection for investors ideas said Matt Vella CEO of Acacia Research Corp which contracts with owners to license their patents to other companies I see it as a Robin Hood function he said If the so called trolls had a birth date it would be the summer of 1994 when a federal appeals court explicitly allowed computer program patents for the first time In the ensuing years software patents exploded covering topics from Wi Fi to one click shopping So did patent lawsuits Last year more than 6 000 patent suits were filed according to intellectual property analytics firm Lex Machina A 2013 White House report said trolls were responsible for 60 percent of suits up from 29 percent in 2010 Congress struck the first blow against these high volume plaintiffs in an overhaul of the patent system Starting in 2012 companies accused of infringement could ask the U S Patent and Trademark Office to invalidate patents used in litigation The reviews are much cheaper and faster than court The reviews proved popular and devastating for many patent owners As of June the patent office was invalidating some or all of challenged patents claims at a rate of 80 to 90 percent depending on the type of review Then in June of this year the Supreme Court unanimously ruled that a basic idea not normally eligible for a patent does not become patent worthy if run on a computer That case Alice vs CLS Bank has made it easier still to quash software patents and at least 13 lower court rulings since then have done just that MOUNTING EVIDENCE New federal patent lawsuits last month were down 40 percent from the previous year to 329 cases data from Lex Machina show Defendants are also fighting longer driving up costs for the acquisition companies In 2004 the median time it took for a case that didn t settle was 467 days By 2013 that had reached 673 days according to Lex Machina Intellectual Ventures one of the largest private patent buyers laid off over 20 percent of its workforce this year The company began with backing from big tech companies who saw it as an ally but some longtime investors including Apple and Intel declined to participate in its latest funding round Intellectual Ventures declined to comment A survey of private patent deals compiled by brokerage IPOfferings found the average price of a patent was 165 000 in the second quarter of 2014 down from 375 000 in 2012 Some patents have withstood challenges under the new legal rules however Marathon Patent Group O MARA announced last month that the U S government rejected a request by ARM Holdings to invalidate a Marathon patent Marathon is trading up 28 percent since mid June Michael Friedman managing director at IP strategy firm Ocean Tomo said patents on widely used technology owned by companies like IBM Microsoft and Qualcomm are still in a strong position to seek licenses But some companies whose business model depends on successful litigation have seen their stock slide since Alice the 2014 Supreme Court case InterDigital O IDCC has fallen over 5 percent and Acacia Research Corp O ACTG is down over 9 percent See graphic Just three weeks after Alice was decided an Acacia Research subsidiary felt its reach when a federal appeals court backed the revocation of a patent on digital image processing used to sue over 30 tech firms Acacia is appealing and said that in general its other patents will not be impacted by Alice in the same way since few deal with the kinds of software methods Alice puts at risk
Still Vella Acacia s CEO said said his company sensed the changing legal landscape and is shifting its strategy away from one patent cases to challenges based on several patents Additional reporting by Diane Bartz in Washington |
VZ | Due For Retracement Of Tuesday s Move So Wednesday Higher | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday higher
ES pivot 1927 00 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader NYSE VZ not a swing trade buy
Recap
Last night I noted a number of good reversal signs in the charts and called Tuesday lower All it took was some more bad news from the Chinese to push the market back over the cliff and right back down again we went retracing more than 50 of the two big days of gains we got last week So once again the picture has changed and we head to the charts as usual to see where Wednesday is headed as scary September gets off to a rocky start
The technicals
The Dow On Tuesday the Dow tanked right out the gate and then was unable to make any sort of a comeback ending near the day s lows That tall red candle was enough to short circuit the indicators which have been rising and send them back down towards oversold The stochastic is also just about to execute a bearish crossover And this move was also a bearish trigger on our last rising RTC So with no support until 15 672 it s looking like a retest of last week s lows might not be out of the question There s just nothing bullish at all about this chart tonight
The VIX Last night I wrote that the VIX looks like it has more upside left for Tuesday And indeed the VIX took a 10 and a half percent pop to form a perfect gap up spinning top That s now two thirds of an evening star but with the stochastic just forming a bullish crossover it s too soon to call the VIX back lower yet and it wouldn t surprise me to see more upside on Wednesday
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 1 06 AM EDT with ES up 1 15 Like everything else ES tanked on Tuesday falling all the way back to 1931 on a tall red candle that exited its rising RTC for a bearish set up It also formed a bearish stochastic crossover However the rest of the indicators are completely confused with RSI and momentum rising but money flow falling In any case the overnight seems to be staging some sort of rally attempt therefore it is impossible to call this chart lower again on Wednesday At the moment it s looking like a good bullish piercing pattern but it s tough to call half baked candles
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot dives again from 1972 08 to 1927 00 But that plunge plus a move higher overnight in ES now leaves it back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish again
Dollar index Last night I said this chart look lower for Tuesday and so it was with the dollar falling 0 43 on a fat gap down red spinning top that stopped just short of its 200 day MA at 63 93 And also like the other charts it traded entirely outside its latest rising RTC for a bearish trigger The indicators are now falling before even having reached overbought so there s nothing bullish about this chart tonight and it looks like it may go lower again on Wednesday
Euro Meanwhile on Tuesday the euro put in its usual mirror image of the dollar with a nice gain that just touched its own 200 day MA before falling back a bit to close at 1 1296 That also sent the indicators oversold for the first time in a month and also curved the stochastic around just into position for a bullish crossover With two white soldiers now in place you d think this would mean the euro s getting ready to mount another attack on its 200 MA But with the overnight actually lower and in the form of a dark cloud cover I m not so sure That makes this chart too tough to call for Wednesday
Transportation The trans got hammered on Tuesday just like everything else with a 2 14 drop that caused them to fall out of their rising RTC for a bearish trigger That also sent the stochastic around just short of a bearish crossover and with all the indicators now heading lower there s nothing bullish about this chart for Wednesday
All the charts are looking just dreadful tonight However with the VIX back above 30 again and some non trivial moves higher this time in the futures it looks like we re due for some retracement of Tuesday s big move which looked overdone to me Heck most moves lately have been overdone leading to the wild oscillations we re seeing as we retrace the retracements So anyway I m going to go out on a limb and call Wednesday higher
And finally to quote Columbo just one more thing On Tuesday technician Louise Yamada on CNBC said that declining momentum is suggesting to me that we are looking at a bear market She says that the SPX could test its uptrend at 1800 I think it s actually worse than that I show the monthly rising RTC from 2009 currently at 1864 and that s not all that far away from where we are right now In fact if you go back to the 2012 rising trend the SPX has already exited that one for a bearish set up That s looking a lot to me like the bull market is dead
Single Stock Trader
Last night I said that Verizon had more downside left on Tuesday and it turns out that it along with the rest of the Dow took a dive gapping down for a 2 4 loss on a red spinning top That s a reversal warning but not a great one and with the lower BB not too far away at 44 19 and the stochastic still very elevated and just getting ready for a bearish crossover the selling may not be over here yet |
VZ | Thursday Uncertain | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday uncertain
ES pivot 1934 42 Holding above is bullish
Friday bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader VZ not a swing trade buy
Last week it took five big down days before we finally got a 50 replacement On Wednesday it only took two down days before getting the same 50 retracement I also note that we have now finally put in a higher low for the first time in a while And this has changed the charts so let s get right to them and see where Thursday is going
The technicals
The Dow Wednesday was something of a conundrum for the Dow On Tuesday we got a big drop that gave us a bearish trigger out of a rising RTC but on Wednesday we retraced more than 50 of Tuesday s drop On the other hand the indicators are still rising and nearly overbought now with the stochastic completely threaded out at a high level All of this leaves the Dow in a delicate position In fact I don t even want to call this for Thursday
The VIX Last night I let the indicators get the best of me when I refused to call the VIX lower on Wednesday But as it turns out we are actually did get a completed bearish evening star on Wednesday And that was enough to send the indicators all oversold and the stochastic is now curving around very close to making a bullish crossover The VIX is also near support at 26 so while it s possible there s more downside left I think it s going to be limited
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are just barely higher at 12 35 AM EDT with S P 500 up 0 03 On Wednesday ES retraced more than 50 of Tuesday s losses to form a classic bullish piercing pattern The indicators continue to rise though are not yet overbought However the stochastic is now threaded out at a high level And the new overnight seems to be forming a gravestone doji so any further advances from here might be problematic
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1927 00 to 1934 42 That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator remains bullish
Dollar index Last night the dollar looked for all the world like it was going lower on Wednesday But I didn t count on the considerable support it found at its 200 day MA The result was a big 0 42 gain on Wednesday with a small gap up green candle that also sent the indicators quite over bought The stochastic like on many other charts is also threaded out here at a high level so this chart is also really too difficult for me to call tonight
Euro At least I had the sense not to try to call the euro last night In the end the dark cloud cover prevailed and the euro was unable to break up through its 200 day MA On Wednesday if fell right back down to 1 1240 and the new overnight is continuing lower which has the indicators now oversold and the stochastic just about to form a bullish crossover So with the euro now near recent support I think now it might stand a good chance of moving higher on Thursday
Transportation Then on Wednesday the Trans retraced almost all of Tuesday s losses with a tall green marubozu That let the indicators continue rising and also threaded out the stochastic at a high level And that leaves this chart in an indeterminate state so there s really no calling it tonight
Accuracy
The charts are playing it coy tonight We re getting a few reversal signs in terms of the stochastic but they re not quite fully formed And the futures aren t as much help tonight as they ve been recently The market seems to be looking for direction right now waiting perhaps for the next shocker out of China or something So in the absence of a clear reading I m just going to call Thursday uncertain
Single Stock Trader
Last night I wasn t ready to call Verizon NYSE VZ higher but it did manage to gain a bit on Wednesday swept along with the rest of the Dow But it did it on a classic red hanging man And the stochastic has now just completed a bearish crossover so once again I can t call this chart higher on Thursday |
VZ | ES Up 0 52 So Calling Tuesday Higher | The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday higher
ES pivot 1926 25 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader NYSE VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap
Last Thursday night I thought the market was looking toppy what with a bunch of doji warnings on the charts and then sure enough on Friday the Dow lost 272 points We now face a holiday shortened week with all of the usual problems that implies So lets take a look at the charts and figure out where Tuesday is going
The technicals
The Dow On Friday the Dow confirmed Thursday s tall doji star with a tall red candle that nevertheless respected support just above 16 000 However it also sent all the indicators moving lower before they ever even reached overbought In particular the stochastic formed a clear bearish crossover so there s nothing bullish about this chart tonight
The VIX On Friday the VIX gave us another doji star this one gapping up eight and a half percent from Thursday s doji star The three day result is something of a cross between a bullish morning star and a tristar pattern also bullish With the indicators now oversold and the stochastic quite low and ready for a bullish crossover of its own this chart looks ready to move higher again on Tuesday
Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 12 18 AM EDT with ES up 0 52 On Friday ES confirmed Thursday s tall inverted hammer to put in a tall red candle But the indicators are now completely confused with RSI falling momentum rising the stochastic falling from a completed bear crossover but OBV also rising The notable point here is that the new Monday night overnight is putting in a strong bullish piercing pattern having already retraced most of Friday s losses This makes it look like a rally may be coming on Tuesday
ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1953 83 to 1926 25 And that was just enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns back to bullish
Dollar index After a big jump on Thursday the dollar continued its wayward ways on Friday unable to make any headway to finish with a 0 19 loss on an inverted hammer that sent the indicators starting to descend off of overbought The stochastic is completely threaded out at a high level and therefore is useless for predictions The resulting Friday candle is a bullish harami but with the dollar so nervous lately I can t call this one tonight
Euro And despite two black crows on Friday I wasn t ready to call the euro lower on Friday That s a good thing too because it actually rose on a spinning top to close back up to 1 1150 The indicators are still oversold but now rising and the stochastic remains lying on the floor completely threaded out But with support respected at 1 1090 and an overnight that s moving higher it looks like the euro has a good chance of closing up on Tuesday
Transportation On Friday the trans fell on a similar looking chart to the Dow a red candle following a doji star But the damage was only a little more than half of the Dow Indicators have started to fall off of overbought but the stochastic has yet to begin curving around for a bearish crossover Overall though in the absence of any bullish signs it looks like this chart may have more downside left to it
According to The Stock trader s Almanac the first day after Labor Day is historically quite bullish and it s looking like that may be the case this year too With the market struggling to find any sense of short term direction I m going to go with the futures tonight While a 0 5 gain in the overnight isn t as big as the spectacular moves we ve seen recently it s still more than enough for me to call Tuesday higher
Single Stock Trader
Last Thursday night once again I refused to call Verizon a swing trade buy on the basis of a gap up inverted hammer And once again right on cue Verizon dropped 2 on a tall gap down red candle That sent the indicators falling off overbought and also broke support and 44 90 So yet again this stock is still not a swing trade buy |
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