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VZ | Thursday Uncertain | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday uncertain
ES pivot 2098 33 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias higher technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader VZ now a swing trade hold
Recap The market popped nicely on Wednesday with a broad based advance as the Dow gained 236 points Now this definitely changes the picture so let s query the charts and see what they have to say The technicals The Dow Last night the Dow was showing the perfect setup for a rally with a tall doji star sitting on it slower BB with oversold indicators And sure enough on Wednesday we got a big pop to propel the Dow right out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup and its best day in over a month There s nothing bearish about this other than the fact that the Dow usually likes to rest up a bit after a big move up and I think hat may be entirely possible here The VIX Last night I wrote that there s no reason to believe the VIX selling is done yet And that was true with the VIX dumping 8 64 in Wednesday with a gap down marubozu that drove the indicators off overbought and rejecting the 200 day MA in a big way And that still leaves nothing bullish to be seen on this chart Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 1 21 AM EDT with ES down 0 11 On Wednesday ES had its best day since April 6th to zoom right out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup The bullish stochastic crossover is now complete Tuesday s doji is confirmed the bounce off the lower BB is confirmed all the indicators are rising off oversold so there s really nothing technically bearish here ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 2077 83 to 2098 33 But even that move wasn t enough to put ES below its new pivot so this indicator remains bullish Dollar index Last night I mentioned support as being the dollar s only savior and on Wednesday that gave way like a balsa wood bridge with a gap down star for a half percent loss But with indicators now oversold this is 2 3 of a bullish morning star so we need to see how this ends I wouldn t go short the dollar right now though Euro Huh I didn t think the euro could do it but on Wednesday it rallied to break resistance and close at 1 1317 But is was on a tall lopsided spinning top almost inverted hammer and the new overnight is guiding lower so with indicators continuing overbought I m still not on board the euro Transportation I don t know why I wasn t willing to commit to the Transs last night On Friday they confirmed Tuesday s hammer with a nice 0 68 jump The resulting spinning top is misshapen though and the indicators are confused so once again it s not clear where this one is headed
All the charts are bullish tonight too bullish It is of course common for the market to pause after a big run up and this case looks typical I m expecting a small move possibly a doji and as such the logical course of action is to call Thursday uncertain Single Stock TraderI said last night Verizon NYSE VZ was still worth buying and it did indeed gain a bit more on Wednesday though its backing its way higher with two successive red spinning tops But that double spinning top is certainly a warning so I m moving this one from a buy to a hold |
VZ | Monday Lower | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front Monday lower ES pivot 2097 50 Holding below is bearish Rest of week bias uncertain technically Monthly outlook bias lower Single stock trader VZ not a swing trade buy RecapLast Thursday night I wrote that the market is feeling toppy tonight with a number of reversal candles on the charts And that s all it took with a broad based decline on Friday leaving hte Dow down triple digits The technicalsThe Dow On Friday the Dow confirmed Thursday s inverted hammer with a 141 point dump to send the indicators lower before they ever even hit overbought Technically this all looks bearish for Monday The VIX And Thursday night I wrote that the VIX may be moving higher within a few days And we didn t have to wait long with the VIX rising 7 24 on Friday with a gap up candle that popped it out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup That also curved the stochastic into position for a bullish crossover so this one looks like more upside is possible Monday Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 16 AM EDT with ES down 0 44 On Friday ES confirmed Thursday s spinning top with a red marubozu that retraced half of Wednesday s gains Of more immediate concern is the Sunday overnight which gapped down precipitously at the open forming a bearish stochastic crossover before the indicators even got near overbought nto a good sign ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2109 08 to 2097 50 That leaves ES still below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish Dollar index Last Thursday I wrote that the dollar is having trouble getting into gear right now and Friday didn t help it any with another 0 07 loss as we continued a month long slide There are no bullish signs on this chart tonight Euro After spending a bunch of time last week noodling about 1 1292 the euro was ultimately unable to pass that resistance and closed Friday at 1 1261 but with yet another doji That makes four in a row as the euro struggles to find direction But with the Sunday overnight off non trivially it looks like that direction will be lower on Monday Transportation Last Thursday night the Trans gave no hint of a fall on Friday but that s what happened anyway The result was almost a dark cloud cover but certainly doesn t look encouraging I d not be long the trans for Monday
A down Friday followed by a down Monday is a well known bearish sign and we already saw that a week ago Now we have yet another down Friday and the technicals sure don t look very positive tonight Also the Morningstar Market Fair Value Index continues to lag at 0 99 A reading below 1 can be bullish but not if it drags on too long Then it becomes bearish With no real bullish signs to speak of on the charts tonight and the futures unambiguously guiding lower I have no alternative but to call Monday lower Single Stock TraderWell I guess that s the end of this trade Verizon NYSE VZ fell out of bed on Friday along with the rest of the Dow That put a quick end to this rising RTC erasing a week s worth of gains So we re back to square one waiting for a likely buy point |
VZ | Tuesday Lower | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday lower
ES pivot 2081 67 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap Last night things were looking bleak and I called the close for Monday lower And sure enough the Dow ended with another triple digit loss This was particularly concerning since it makes a down Friday followed by a down Monday for the second week in a row That s a particularly negative pattern So keeping that in mind is there any relief in sight The charts will speak when they get good and ready The technicals The Dow On Monday the Dow gave us a 108 point drop for a fat hammer but also a bearish stochastic crossover There s support at 17 757 that was successfully tested on Monday but with the 200 day MA at 17 633 hoving into view I d expect a retest This pattern is certainly not bullish The VIX Last night I wrote of the VIX that more upside is possible Monday And it came to pass with a giant 11 68 gap up pop that blasted it right through its 200 day MA But in the end it was a classic hanging man looking a lot like an evening star in the making 200 MA hits are the third rail for the VIX and I expect all the bots know it particularly with a yawning gap now below us I m looking for a move lower on Tuesday Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 AM EDT On Monday ES confirmed Friday s spinning top with a 50 retracement of Thursday s gains on a big gap down hammer that forced a bearish stochastic crossover But it also touched the lower BB And six of the last six times that s happened we got a move higher within two days That may not be Tuesday though as the overall larger trend remains down and the overnight is sagging ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2097 50 to 2081 67 ES remains below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish Dollar index Last night I wrote that there are no bullish signs on this chart tonight And what happens in that case The dollar goes down Another 0 14 Monday The indicators are all dead in the water and there are still no bullish signs on this chart Euro Well of course I did miss the euro on Monday which went higher to 1 1297 not lower as I expected But that still leaves it in a narrow congestion zone around 1 277 a level we ve hit for eight straight days now The current pattern hammer followed by bullish engulfing suggests higher but tempered by indicators now overbought As far as I can tell the euro has a bit more sideways motion to go before a break Transportation Like the Dow the Trans gave us a red hammer on Monday but not quite a bearish stochastic crossover Still this would be an exceedingly risky point to go long the trans
Well after careful consideration I m afraid there aren t a whole lot of bullish signs on the charts tonight Only the VIX looks bullish on a reversal candle but it could still take one more stab higher before falling back So I m afraid I ll just have to declare Tuesday lower Single Stock TraderVerizon NYSE VZ just continues to be part of the overall market decline It broke support at 47 24 on Monday with a gap down spinning top so there s just no telling when it might be a buy again Short form stay away |
VZ | Wednesday Uncertain | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday uncertain
ES pivot 2081 67 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader VZ may be a swing trade buy
Recap Last night the Dow had given us a reversal warning in the form of a hammer but that wasn t too convincing to me Too bad too because the Dow gained triple digits Tuesday apparently on pre Fed second guessing Well I won t be fooled twice It s my standard policy to never make predictions ahead of Fed days and that goes double for this one as this Wednesday s announcement is more widely anticipated than most So we ll just skip the chart run downs tonight No point to them Less for me to write less for you to read The technicals ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot finally rises from 2081 67 to 2088 75 ES did well enough Tuesday to rise above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish
I won t be playing the game Wednesday morning not ahead of a big Fed announcement There might be some great scalping opportunities as soon as it comes out for the fleet of finger but I ll leave that to those more adventurous than me In the meantime the call is simply Wednesday uncertain Single Stock TraderOn Tuesday Verizon NYSE VZ took something of an unexpected pop that helped establish 47 as support I think I might stick a limit buy just above that and see what happens |
VZ | Thursday Lower | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday lower
ES pivot 2097 17 Holding below is bearish
Friday bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader VZ not a swing trade buy
Recap Huh well there were some nice day trading opportunities around the Fed announcement at 2 PM Wednesday but by the time it was all over the market was little changed the Dow gained a mere 31 points So with that excitement finally out of the way we move on to Thursday The technicals The Dow In the end Mr Market couldn t figure out what to make of the Fed announcement ending with a symmetrical spinning top above Tuesday s jump But we also got a new bullish stochastic crossover so this chart remains conflicted The VIX True to form the VIX bounced off its upper BB and fell back under its 200 day MA on Tuesday to set up another loss on Wednesday But this is also a spinning top so no call here Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 18 AM EDT with ES down 0 20 On Wednesday ES put in a long legged doji star with about Tuesday s close The overnight seems to be confirming that with a move lower so this chart is looking bearish now ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2088 75 to 2097 17 And that combined with ES sagging in the overnight now puts it back below its new pivot so this indicator goes back to bearish Dollar index The dollar continued its month long slide Wednesday closing in on its lower BB with indicators now oversold But there s still no reversal sign here yet Euro Looks like the euro may finally be breaking out of its sideways trading range with a pop back to 1 1347 Wednesday its highest close since May 15th And with a bullish stochastic from a high level and the overnight guiding higher I d say more upside is possible Thursday Transportation The Trans made it four losers in a row Wednesday but this one was a hammer that touched it slower BB respecting support at 8297 so there s a chance this one could reverse Thursday
We have a bunch of reversal signs about tonight after the post Fed rally fizzled and the broader month long trend remains down so I m going to call Thursday lower Single Stock TraderI take back what I said about Verizon NYSE VZ being a swing buy With a red hanging man Wednesday fuggedaboudit |
XOM | Proxy firm ISS says no to Exxon exec pay plan ahead of shareholder meeting | Proxy adviser ISS recommends investors vote against Exxon Mobil s NYSE XOM executive pay plan and some other closely watched questions due to be voted at the company s May 31 annual meeting ISS recommends investors vote against the pay of XOM s top executives questioning if pay awards are strongly linked to performance and suggests voting in favor of a shareholder resolution requesting more information on the potential impact of climate change on the company s business ISS says it supports all of XOM s directors up for election Now read |
XOM | Exxon to import fuel to Mexico to supply its new gas stations | Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM says it will start importing its own gasoline into Mexico before the end of the year to supply the Mobil brand gas stations it plans to open in the country XOM s director of fuels in Mexico says the company could participate in open season auctions which will be staggered throughout this year that allow private companies to bid for access to surplus pipeline capacity within state owned Pemex s existing network XOM expects to open its first service stations in Mexico later this year and will sell gasoline and diesel fuels Now read |
XOM | Union dispute threatens Exxon s Nigerian oil output | Nigeria s manager level oil union threatens to continue a strike indefinitely at Exxon Mobil s XOM 0 3 local unit after talks with the company to end the action broke down The dispute over at least 83 local workers the union says were wrongfully terminated is now in its eleventh day and has been referred to an arbitration panel by the government s minister for labor XOM operates the terminal for Qua Iboe crude which is Nigeria s biggest export grade Now read |
XOM | Exxon Total discuss Greece offshore drilling opportunities ministry says | Greece s energy ministry says it held talks with Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM and Total NYSE TOT about offshore gas exploration opportunities A consortium of XOM TOT and Greece s biggest oil refiner Hellenic Petroleum are expected to submit an offer in the coming period for exploration south of Crete a government official tells Reuters Greece tendered blocks off Crete in 2013 and did not receive bids but exploring for gas in the Mediterranean has become more attractive since Eni s 2015 discovery of Egypt s offshore Zohr field the biggest gas field in the Mediterranean and estimated to contain 850B cm of gas Now read |
XOM | Exxon finishes major expansion at Mont Belvieu plastics plant | Exxon Mobil XOM 0 4 says it completed a large expansion at its existing plastics plant in Mont Belvieu Tex that will add 1 3M metric tons of annual capacity to manufacture polyethylene Part of a previously announced multi billion dollar expansion project in the Baytown Tex area the polyethylene lines will process ethylene feedstock from the new steam cracker currently under construction at the Baytown complex XOM is investing several billion dollars to increase the production of ethylene and polyethylene at its Mont Belvieu and Baytown plants in its first major U S chemical expansion in more than 15 years Now read |
XOM | Exxon loses a round in court battle with New York AG | A New York state appeals court rules Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM must turn over records in the state attorney general s investigation into how much the company knew about global warming while publicly downplaying the effects on its business The appeals court upheld a lower court decision rejecting XOM s argument that the court did not properly consider which state s laws on turning over evidence in an investigation should apply in the case XOM s headquarters are in Texas while the probe is taking place in New York XOM also is fighting the investigation in Manhattan federal court arguing that NY AG Eric Schneiderman and Massachusetts AG Maura Healey who is conducting a separate probe are motivated by politics Now read |
XOM | Shell Exxon may appeal over planned Groningen gas production cut | The joint venture between Royal Dutch Shell LON RDSa RDS A RDS B and Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM that operates the Groningen gas field says it is considering an appeal against a Dutch government plan to cut production at the massive field by 10 The government confirms it plans to go ahead with a tightening of output at Groningen from Oct 1 and says interested parties have until July 7 to announce an appeal The 50 50 Shell XOM JV says the government s measure is disproportionate and ignores previously agreed safety norms which do not call for such a large reduction With the new cut production would be capped at 21 6B cm year from 53 9B cm in 2013 Now read |
VZ | Wednesday Uncertain | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday uncertain
ES pivot 2085 92 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias lower technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ now close to a swing trade buy
Recap Hmm apparently Mr Market is still not over his Fed induced snit from last Friday as the selling continued unabated on Tuesday ending just off session lows At least it was not entirely unexpected as we pointed out last night So now let s continue on to Wednesday and see when we might sound the all clear The technicals The Dow The Dow took a nasty little 190 point dump on Tuesday and it was enough to send the indicators from overbought to oversold in a single day a fairly rare occurrence In fact the last time was saw this was August 11 2010 And at that time there was a bunch more downside to go though we also had a 200 day MA cross going which is not the case now Still this drop s got falling knife written all over it so until I see at least a reversal candle I m not touching it The VIX Last night I wrote that the VIX looks primed for more upside And was it ever with a nearly 16 gap up pop on Tuesday that took the indicators from oversold nearly to overbought The resulting inverted hammer is a reversal sign and there is a gap now that ll be wanting filling but we need some confirmation A move lower on Wednesday would form a bearish evening star Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 33 AM EDT with ES down 0 07 ES had a bad day Tuesday though no worse than just three weeks ago on May 5th ending five days of congestion with a big sneeze downward That was enough to send all the indicators off overbought though not quite to oversold So we still can t call a reversal and the overnight isn t showing much enthusiasm either ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2126 08 to 2085 92 So we remain below the new pivot and therefore this indicator continues bearish Dollar index Like everything else on Tuesday the dollar had an outsized move gapping up a huge 1 35 to trade entirely above its upper BB highly unusual That drove the indicators quite overbought and flattened out the stochastic to make way for a bearish crossover But we re not there yet And as we saw back in March when the dollar spent three weeks climbing its upper BB just because it s gone up doesn t mean it can t go higher So we need to wait a day for confirmation I d expect a move lower soon but it might not be Wednesday Euro And on Tuesday much noise was made about the euro s fall back to 1 0874 But the fact is we ve been here six times already this year This time though we hit the lower BB and the indicators are highly oversold RSI 3 79 Still we remain in a descending RTC with no sign of a reversal candle so until then I just have to wait see Transportation The Trans which have been having a hard time lately had an even harder one Tuesday tanking 1 55 to cascade down their lower BB this move has flattened out the stochastic in preparation for a bullish crossover but the indicators are still not oversold so it s still too soon to call a reversal
On Tuesday the market fell far enough and fast enough to make a relief rally or at least a DCB not out of the question However technically there are still no signs of a reversal and all the charts continue to look bearish But because there s some doubt here I m going to settle for calling Wednesday uncertain Single Stock TraderLast night I recommended staying away from Verizon NYSE VZ and that proved to be a good idea since it fell along with the rest of the Dow on Tuesday The resulting spinning top touched its lower BB which has been a good reversal sign in the past though the indicators are still not quite as oversold as I d like to see If this one looks to be finding support at the open on Wednesday an event I ll never see it might be looking attractive For now though I m still waiting |
VZ | Monday Higher | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Monday higher
ES pivot 2118 33 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader VZ is not a swing trade buy
Recap Last Thursday night I wasn t at all sure which way we were going on Friday but I sure didn t expect a 115 point dump in the Dow That makes things interesting so let s go right to the charts to evaluate the implications The technicals The Dow On Friday the Dow confirmed a hanging man with a triple digit loss to break support at 18 047 and just barely hang on to 18K But this big drop had the feel of a washout tome driving the indicators well into oversold and curving the stochastic very close to a bullish crossover Though this isn t a bullish candle this is the zone from which rallies come The VIX And on Friday the VIX tried to rally but in the end managed only a meager 4 gain on a tall inverted hammer That also caused the indicators to top just short of overbought and left the stochastic about to form a bearish crossover That makes this chart look lower for Monday Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 12 17 AM EDT with ES up 0 17 ES dropped on Friday but it continues to find support right around 2105 Note that this is actually YTD support not just from the past week And that seems to be holding into the Sunday overnight I d be wary of going short at these levels ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2118 33 to 2085 92 So that still leaves ES below its new pivot but now only just barely and this indicator is now only marginally bearish Dollar index The dollar has been mirroring the trans lately see below Everything I wrote there applies here too Euro Last Thursday night I wrote to look for a higher close on Friday for the euro and indeed it managed to push higher again to 1 0983 but with a spinning top Fortunately we ve got some Sunday overnight action to help us out here and that is guiding lower confirming the spinning top So despite oversold indicators and a bullish stochastic crossover I d not be surprised to see a lower close on Monday Transportation After a big move lower Thursday the Trans hit the brakes on Friday to end with a perfect doji star though one hanging right above a yawning gap with overbought indicators and a completed bearish stochastic crossover This is the sort of reversal candle that absolutely requires confirmation before calling higher
The first day of most months is generally bullish and June is no exception despite its overall crappy reputation And while they re not a screaming buy technically the charts tonight are at least entertaining the possibility of a reversal soon So I m just going to go ahead and call Monday higher Single Stock TraderVerizon Communications NYSE VZ remains unsettled with two inverted hammers and then four spinning tops in a row I can t really bless this unless and until I see a better edge than this Patience as always is the key |
VZ | Tuesday Depends On ES Pivot | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday higher only if ES breaks above pivot else lower
ES pivot 2109 08 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader VZ is still not a swing trade buy
Recap After a decent start the bears made a valiant attempt to knock em down into the close on Monday but in the end history prevailed and the Dow managed to finish up 30 points Hey we ll take it we have to So sell in May was a bust will it now be swoon in June Only way to tell is by grilling the charts So let s light the Kingsford and look towards Tuesday The technicals The Dow Despite a modest gain on Monday the Dow remains in a nearly two week long downtrend We now have a fat spinning top that is a reversal sign but one which requires confirmation So it s no go here The VIX Wow on Monday the VIX put in the supernova of all doji stars hitting 14 86 before collapsing back to 13 97 Sitting on top of Friday s action with indicators nearly overbought this makes me want to give better than even odds we go lower on Tuesday Market index futures Tonight all three futures are essentially unchanged at 12 18 AM EDT with ES down one whole tick On Monday ES gave us a tall spinning top at the lower end of Friday s dump just touching its lower BB Indicators are mixed though But that BB touch has been a good reversal sign lately so a move higher from here is not out of the question The overnight though doesn t seem to be supporting that forming a dark cloud cover at the moment ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot dips from 2110 33 to 2109 08 An odd late evening dive for no immediately apparent reason now puts ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish Dollar index Last night I noted the possibility of a reversal in the dollar but insisted on confirmation Well we got it on Monday with a nice 0 50 gain Unfortunately that gain was so big it brought us nearly back to resistance so with the indicators remaining overbought and the past week really range bound we need to wait again for some definitive sign of movement Euro On Monday the euro fell out of a short rising RTC for a bearish setup Last night I wrote that I d not be surprised to see a lower close on Monday And I wasn t as we went back down to 1 0935 We re also getting a stochastic curving around for a bearish crossover from a low level and those are generally good for at least a day of continued lower The overnight seems to be supporting this Transportation Here s something interesting after underperforming for the last three centuries the Trans on Monday beat the pants off the Dow with a monster 1 14 pop to zoom out of their long running descending RTC for a bullish setup and force a bullish stochastic crossover Indicators have now bottomed at oversold so this all looks higher on Tuesday to me
The second day of June is historically even better than the first day according to the Stock Traders Almanac But what we re getting tonight is a series of reversal signs that all require confirmation And right now the futures are taking a turn south And I always hate to bet against the futures But we are so close to the ES pivot that this seems like a good time to make a conditional call if ES can break back above its pivot by mid morning Tuesday we ll close higher If not we close lower Single Stock TraderTurns out I was right to wait on this one Verizon NYSE VZ went down another 22 cents on Monday after days of noodling about It just managed to touch its lower BB which is interesting but the indicators have yet to hit oversold so I m still sitting on the sidelines |
VZ | Wednesday s Markets Higher S P 500 Future Bullish VIX Rises | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday higher
ES pivot 2105 58 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader VZ near a swing trade buy
Recap Last night I made a conditional call the condition being ES managing to get above its pivot by mid morning in order for the market to close higher Well it did make a breakout but it wasn t til noon which was too late and the market did indeed close lower This doesn t always work but it works often enough to keep in the toolbox So on we go to Wednesday to see what s what The technicals The Dow On Tuesday the Dow put in a nice doji star at the lower end of Monday s big dump That s a decent reversal sign modulo the indicators which are still aways from oversold So I d prepare for a reversal though it s not a given at this point The VIX Well I was certainly wrong about the VIX on Tuesday It did not go lower on a spinning top instead it rose another 1 93 on a second spinning top But this one very nearly touched both its upper BB and 200 day MA coincidentally both around 15 20 before falling back That along with now overbought indicators is a decent topping sign in my book Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 1 38 AM EDT with ES up 0 09 On Tuesday ES followed Monday s spinning top with another even larger spinning top There s no guidance from that but I do note a stochastic about to form a bullish crossover and the overnight seems to be supporting that at least for now ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2109 08 to 2105 58 And that was enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator turns back to bullish again Dollar index The dollar got hammered on Tuesday with a tall gap down 1 63 marubozu that sent the indicators off overbought and moving towards oversold Nothing bullish on this chart Euro And correspondingly the euro had a major boost on Tuesday taking me completely by surprise to close back to 1 1169 Indicators continue to rise but are still a ways from overbought so this one looks like it s still got room to run Transportation The trans have seen a week of choppy losses that have been dribbling down the lower BB Tuesday may have been the end as the trans rose in a bit of bullish divergence on a day the rest of the market was down It was a spinning top but also a bullish trigger on a falling RTC exit We also got a bullish stochastic crossover so I d hazard this one looks higher for Wednesday
Hmm the crystal ball isn t 100 clear but what I am seeing is signs of a reversal so I m going to go out on a limb and call Wednesday higher Single Stock TraderLast night I still wasn t ready to get on board NYSE VZ and good thing too because it was down again on Tuesday This time with a spindly spinning top that just about touched its 200 day MA before bouncing off We remain in a downtrend but the indicators are getting quite oversold These are levels from which reversals happen but I m still a bit cautious here If it s not going lower again at the open on Wednesday it might be worth putting on a small position |
VZ | Thursday Uncertain | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday uncertain
ES pivot 2114 50 Holding below is bearish
Friday bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias lower
Single stock trader VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap We called Wednesday higher and I consider myself fortunate the Dow did just that given that it spent most of the day moving lower after a big jump out the gate But that was then and this is now so let s look at the charts as usual and think about Thursday The technicals The Dow On Wednesday the Dow confirmed Tuesday s spinning top by moving higher but did it with another reversal sign a giant lopsided spinning top Aside form that though we exited the descending RTC for a bullish setup got a bullish stochastic crossover and the indicators are still oversold So the balance of all that is a bullish bias The VIX Last night I spotted a decent topping sign in the VIX and down it went on Wednesday off 4 on a gap down doji star that still left the indicators overbought and formed a bearish stochastic crossover That leaves plenty of room to run lower Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 42 AM EDT with ES down 0 14 Last night I noted a bullish stochastic crossover and that played out nicely on Wednesday sending ES higher for its best day in a week Indicators are still a ways from overbought but the overnight seems to be having trouble advancing so I m not sure about Thursday here ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2105 58 to 2114 50 And that plus an overnight sag in ES is enough to put it back below its new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish Dollar index Last night I wrote about the dollar that there s nothing bullish on this chart Which was true with a 0 38 drop on Thursday for two black crows That was enough to send the indicators oversold but not enough for a bullish stochastic crossover so until I see a reversal sign I ll have to go with more downside here Euro And last night I also wrote about the euro that this one looks like it s still got room to run Which it did nicely on Wednesday closing at 1 1260 to keep the uptrend alive but also sending the indicators very overbought We re right on a resistance line but I d be cautious here This one could go either way on Thursday Transportation Last night I wrote that this one looks higher for Wednesday And that s where the Trans went up 1 22 That was the payoff on the bullish RTC trigger So with indicators still rising and no bearish signs in sight I d say there s still room for further gains
On the surface things are looking fairly bullish tonight I m a bit concerned though that the indicators may have been a bit distorted by the early market advance and subsequent sell off I also note that the futures are trending lower in the overnight But that alone isn t enough to make be turn bearish particularly in the absence of any other overtly negative signs Therefore I will have to content myself to call Thursday uncertain Single Stock TraderLast night I mentioned the need for caution here and while Verizon NYSE VZ did move higher on Wednesday it ended lower following up a spinning top with an even bigger spinning top This one actually pierced the 200 day MA and we remain oversold But that leaves us where we were last night show me the reversal |
XOM | Granite Oil declares CAD 0 035 dividend | Granite Oil OTCQX GXOCF declares CAD 0 035 share monthly dividend in line with previous Forward yield 7 9 Payable June 15 for shareholders of record May 31 ex div May 26 Now read |
XOM | Exxon confirms potentially significant new gas field in Papua New Guinea | Exxon Mobil XOM 0 3 announces positive results on the Muruk 1 sidetrack well in the Papua New Guinea after completing a third sidetrack on the Muruk gas discovery and confirming a potentially significant new gas field XOM says the well encountered high quality sandstone reservoirs southwest of the Muruk 1 natural gas discovery announced in late 2016 XOM owns a 42 5 interest in the Muruk license with operator Oil Search Ltd OTCPK OISHF holding 37 5 and and Santos subsidiary Barracuda Ltd owning 20 subject to regulatory approval Now read |
XOM | Rosneft Eni sign cooperation agreement | Russia s Rosneft OTC RNFTF and Italy s Eni NYSE E sign an agreement to broaden cooperation including in potential joint oil product supplies to Egypt The agreement calls for expanded cooperation in hydrocarbon production refining marketing and trading including in Egypt s Zohr project where Eni controls 50 and Rosneft owns up to 35 much of which it purchased from the Italian company in December The deal was signed during Italian Prime Minister Gentiloni s visit to Russia and his meeting with Pres Putin Now read |
XOM | Exxon to launch Mobil service stations and fuels in Mexico | Exxon Mobil XOM 0 5 unveils plans to invest 300M over 10 years as it enters Mexico s retail fuel market saying the country s recent energy reforms create an opportunity to help meet growing demand for reliable fuel supplies and services XOM says it expects to open its first Mobil service station in central Mexico during H2 this year with additional stations opening later in the year and plans to invest 300M in fuels logistics product inventories and marketing to provide a reliable supply of quality products to the retail wholesale industrial and commercial sectors Now read |
CSCO | This Week s Growth And Income Stocks Are Cisco Systems CSCO And Rayonier Inc RYN | Cisco Systems NASDAQ CSCO has been shifting away from its legacy switching and routing business and has been more focused on areas of high growth within the technology realm This includes the cloud the internet of things IoT cybersecurity and enterprise collaboration While they have not abandoned their legacy items as they still have a solid revenue stream coming in from this segment management has found that these new growth areas have begun to help its reoccurring revenues The success of this new focus was evident in their last quarter s earnings announcement where these reoccurring revenues in the form of subscription products and software sales accounted for almost 1 3 of total revenues Specifically subscription product revenues increased to 12 of sales which was an over 100 increase from just two years ago Currently management s goal is to have reoccurring revenues to account for 37 of total sales and for subscriptions to reach 20 of product sales by 2020 This goal seems very obtainable given their current course and recent success The company is also branching out into cybersecurity another high growth tech area and they recently announced a partnership with INTERPOL share threat intelligence This is the initial stage for both of these organizations to fight cybercrime Further Cisco recently relaunched its smart city platform According to Larry Payne SVP of Cisco It s a solution that provides connectivity as well as analytics and security to multiple devices such as sensors streetlights and video cameras This platform is currently being used by 34 cities including Las Vegas Nevada One of the newest and more interesting ways Cisco is moving into the internet of things IoT has been their recent collaboration with IOTA an open source distributed ledger cryptocurrency focused on providing secure communications and payments between machines on the Internet of Things This new system is expected to be more efficient and easier to use than the common blockchain technology This overall shift by the company has not gone unnoticed by analysts as they have increased price targets and revenue expectations since the last earnings announcement As you can see below the stock price and future earnings estimates have jumped since management s shift to more high growth technology areas Cisco Systems Inc Price and Consensus
Lastly the company pays a very nice 3 09 annual dividend Moreover the recent corporate tax cut is expected to result in more share repurchases and dividend hikes in 2018 While this is not confirmed many are expecting management to return these savings to its shareholders Rayonier Inc The sustained housing market the necessary rebuilds after the hurricanes and the potential infrastructure bill in early 2018 are the main drivers behind Rayonier s recent uptick and bolstered future expectations Rayonier is a timberland real estate investment trust with assets located in some of the most productive timber growing regions in both the U S and New Zealand Rayonier owns leases or manages acres of timberlands located in the U S South U S Pacific Northwest and New Zealand In mid November the Commerce Department reported that housing starts rose by 13 7 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1 29 million units This marked the highest level since October of 2016 The areas impacted by the hurricanes were up even higher 17 2 with single family construction improving by 16 6 the highest level since 2007 Moreover building permits increased by 5 9 to an annual rate of 1 297 million units in October Specifically single family permits rose by 1 9 while multi family homes jumped up 13 9 During this time Rayonier saw significant increases in their harvesting volumes in all three of their timberlands U S South 24 U S Pacific Northwest 5 and New Zealand 40 This equated in improved sales in all three areas U S South 15 U S Pacific Northwest 16 and New Zealand 66 when compared to the year ago quarter While sales and harvesting volumes increased management was able to decrease both corporate and operating expenses Another area of growth for the company is in the form of exports China has seen its timber supply deficit increase as of late and Rayonier s exports from the U S South to both China and India have grown by 8 times since 2012 and are expected to continue to grow through 2018 Moreover Rayonier continues to prudently acquire more timberland and has average 8 transactions annually adding about 105 000 acres each year to their portfolio This process is expected to continue through 2018 Lastly the company pays out a nice 3 25 annual dividend with the next record date payment on 12 14
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XOM | Oil Giving Up Gains | Crude oil prices gave up gains after hitting a three week high only to succumb to worries about rising shale output and stability in the dollar Oil retreated as the Energy Information Administration released a report late in yesterday s session that said U S shale output could rise by 41 000 barrels a day in the month of February While that is good news it really should not have been a surprise to the market that has seen a string of impressive rig count increases and the fact that the 46 000 barrels a day is a far cry from the 1 8 million barrels of day of production that OPEC and non OPEC countries are taking off the market
In fact even Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM believes that the price of oil will stay strong enough over the long term such that it made a 5 6 billion dollar bet buying our Permian Basin companies owned by the Bass Family to optical double their output in shales most productive region MarketWatch reports that as part of the deal Exxon Mobil will make an upfront payment of 5 6 billion worth of shares and a series of contingent cash payments of up to 1 billion starting in 2020
Even Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al Falih is not worried about the threat of shale to price in the short term as the Saudi oil minister said that shale will take some time to bounce back from the production war So even as oil traders focus on the shale numbers as well as the fact that the dollar is rebounding the increasing shale production is not a threat to the longer term bullish fundamentals of the market While the market move on the false narrative that somehow shale can replace all the trillions of oil dollars of capital spending cuts over night it can t
Mr al Falih said it would take time for U S producers to regain lost ground and that U S oil shale players will find they need higher prices in part because of higher production costs
The EIA reported that it took a 53 000 barrel increase in the Permian to raise total shale output by 41 000 barrels a day That means we will need a sustained higher price to keep the other shale fields going
Superstar energy economist at WTRG Economics James Williams predicts in MarketWatch that the volume of new oil per rig has climbed because of gains in efficiency He says that If maintained the expected February production gain means production from the shale plays will be up at least a half million barrels per day by the end of the year That of course may pose a problem for OPEC at the end of the year but it will be at least 6 months after the current 1 8 million barrel cut will have ended if there is no extension As I told MarketWatch Al Falih has also said he believes that the oil market will rebalance by the middle of the year suggesting that the glut of oil will be gone in six months so the market may need the shale oil said Flynn
The AP reports the Iraq s military has full control of Eastern Mosul after routing ISIS from that part of the city The report seemed to help oil sell off as it increases the odds of more Iraqi oil if ISIS is on the run
Brent prices outperformed WTI crude prices last year and we are on track for another bullish year Capital Spending cuts are causing long term production plunges The world needs to invest 25 trillion in new oil producing capacity over the next 25 years to meet growing demand Saudi Aramco s chief executive Amin Nasser said at the World Economic Forum in Davos
Bloomberg News reports that China s crude production is seen dropping as much as 7 this year as output is declining at aging fields amid capital spending cuts The collapse in prices that began in 2014 is taking its toll and the nation s output suffered a record decline last year That plays into the hands of OPEC as it seeks to prop up the global oil market forcing China to depend more heavily on imports
The point is that while shale is making a comeback a rip roaring U S economy and falling output due to historic cuts in capital spending will cause the market to use excess supply in a few months As I said last year oil is making a generational bottom and we will see ups and downs along the way Last year oil had the best year since 2009 and we are continuing to act in a similar way to the last generational bottom that was made in 1998 99 and 2000 A lot of the ultra bears from last year have gone quiet as 2016 went decisively to the bull camp after a fierce battle worthy of a long term bottom More and more the bears will quit fighting the tape and the current range should move higher |
VZ | Monday Uncertain | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Monday uncertain
ES pivot 2102 00 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ not a swing trade buy
Recap The market took a big jump on Friday propelled by some jobs number Mr Market evidently found quite appealing That changes the picture once again so let s take a step back and see what this all means for Monday The technicals The Dow On Friday the Dow had its best day since way back last December 18th by the looks of it with a rocket ship that zoomed it right past resistance at 18 111 and clear to it supper BB And amazingly even that wasn t enough to send the indicators overbought And the stochastic is still finishing up its bullish stochastic crossover So with the all time high not too far away I see no reason why the Dow would not want to revisit that level on Monday The VIX Last Thursday night I wrote that a bunch of technical mumbo jumbo makes it look like the next move is likely lower And was it ever with the VIX gapping down a monster 15 its biggest gap lower since the very same December 18th to crash right back through the 200 day MA in a move that just barely nudged the indicators off overbought and also formed a bearish stochastic crossover Support isn t til 12 04 so there s still room to run lower on Monday Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 29 AM EDT with ES down 0 05 ES had a great day last Friday handily confirming a double hammer pattern and popping right back up to its resistance at 2111 Indicators are all rising now and we have a completed bullish stochastic crossover so everything looks great except that the overnight is drifting lower a bit ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot leaps from 2076 50 to 2102 00 And even with that jump ES is still above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish Dollar index Last Thursday night I wrote this chart now look s bullish for Friday And it was up another 0 16 on a bullish engulfing pattern With rising indicators only recently off oversold that makes the US Dollar Index look to continue higher for Monday Euro And last Thursday night I also wrote of the euro that some pretty persuasive stuff adds up to lower on Friday And that s just where the euro went back down to 1 1210 And the selling doesn t appear to be over yet either with the euro down even more in the Sunday overnight With falling indicators a completed bearish stochastic crossover and three black crows it looks like a lower close on Monday Transportation Like everything else the Trans was higher on Friday but unlike everything else it put in an inverted hammer sitting on its 200 day MA We have rising indicators and a freshly minted bullish stochastic crossover but there is a note of caution here
Often the day after a big run up the market takes a breather That was certainly the case on December 19th after the Dow s last similar size gain as Friday s So while there really aren t any bearish signs about I m expecting something of a doji day on Monday and those are by definition uncallable Therefore I simply have to declare Monday uncertain I m not expecting a big move either way Single Stock TraderLast Thursday night I cautiously recommended Verizon Communications NYSE VZ as a swing buy and it did indeed rise along with the rest of the Dow on Friday but it did it with a gap up doji that looks like 2 3 of an evening star And though it also formed a bullish stochastic crossover it s enough of a reversal warning for me to go back to neutral on this one |
VZ | Tuesday Lower | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday lower
ES pivot 2102 33 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias lower technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap I was right last night in refusing to call the market higher despite a dearth of bearish signs Turns out record high Dow resistance was too much for it this time sending stocks lower though a bit more than I d expected Anyway let s see how this sets up for Tuesday as yet another op ex week rumbles on The technicals The Dow On Monday the Dow dropped 86 points stopping right about recent support at 18 110 But indicators are now nearly overbought we closed at session lows we ve bounced off the upper BB and the candle is real close to a dark cloud cover so I m not optimistic on this chart for Tuesday The VIX And the VIX on Monday began filling in Friday s huge gap down with a 7 7 advance establishing Friday s 1 286 close as new support Indicators are only recently off overbought but the VIX may be wanting to do some more gap filling Tuesday Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 26 AM EDT with ES down 0 05 On Monday ES retraced about half of Friday s gains with a classic dark cloud cover With indicators close to overbought that makes this chart look bearish again for Tuesday The lack of enthusiasm in the overnight tends to support that view ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 2102 00 to 2102 33 ES is now below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish Dollar Index Last night I wrote that this chart look continued higher for Monday and so it was up another 0 20 but on a gap up little red spinning top That s 2 3 of an evening star It s still too early to call a move lower particularly since the indicators aren t yet overbought but I d definitely not be buying dollars at this point Euro And last night of the euro I also wrote it looks like a lower close on Monday And that was right too leaving the euro now back down to 1 1161 with three black crows and a new descending RTC But the euro seems to be finding some support it he overnight so I hesitate to call it lower again on Tuesday Transportation Last night I turned on the yellow caution light based on the inverted hammer and that was confirmed Monday as the Trans fell 0 14 on a second taller inverted hammer It also just exited a steep short rising RTC for a bearish setup That all makes it look like there s still more downside left here
Last night I wasn t sure the market could push past resistance but also didn t see much in the way of bearishness Tonight I m even less sure the market can push past resistance but I m starting to see some bearish signs So I m going to go ahead and call Tuesday lower I ll be happy to be proven wrong Single Stock TraderAs I suspected last night Verizon Communications NYSE VZ came in on Monday completing a bearish evening star that trumped the bullish stochastic crossover And I don t think it s done going down so still no buy call here |
VZ | Thursday Uncertain | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday uncertain
ES pivot 2097 50 Holding below is bearish
Friday bias lower technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ not a swing trade buy
Recap I called Wednesday higher though I apparently forgot to hit publish late Tuesday night so it didn t go out until noon on Wednesday but no matter the Dow 30 had a tiny range day and finished well inside the noise band with just an eight point loss So let s move on to the day before op ex to figure out what if anything any of this means The technicals The Dow After several large excursions both down and up the previous two days the Dow did next to nothing on Wednesday in something that could be construed as a symmetrical triangle or maybe not I don t know if it s op ex week jitters or what but there are very few technical clues at least that I can see in this chart tonight So no call here The VIX Last night I wrote that the VIX looks bearish to me And while it was in fact down it was only 0 72 and on a green spinning top at that We also just barely squeaked out a bullish stochastic crossover so I guess this one looks higher for Thursday but it s far from crystal clear Market index futures Tonight all three futures are mixed at 12 10 AM EDT with ES up 0 04 ES had the day traders pulling their hair out Wednesday going basically nowhere by the close With two opposing dojis now a hammer followed by an inverted hammer where this goes next is anyone s guess The overnight isn t helping either basically going nowhere at the moment ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2091 75 to 2097 50 That gain plus a lackluster ES in the overnight now places it below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish Dollar index Last night of the dollar I wrote that it looks like lower again on Wednesday And that s what happened down a big 1 02 to form a bearish stochastic crossover even as RSI is oversold With the lower BB yet to be hit this sort of bearish momentum is not to be toyed with I d not go long the dollar here Euro And so also last night I wrote of the euro that this chart looks higher Wednesday And that s also just what happened as the euro popped right back to its resistance at 1 1365 for a bullish setup on a descending RTC exit Indicators continue to rise but it s not clear the euro can clear this resistance Transportation And finally last night I wrote that it all adds up to continued lower and that s just where the Trans went on Wednesday down a big 1 04 to close right on support and just short of the lower BB That move forced the indicators way down now just off oversold So a reversal is looking likely based on S R lines but not on the candles just yet
The market has been pretty conflicted all week long swinging one way and then the other with little to show for it in the end and the technicals reflect that Against this backdrop there s little I can do so I will just have to call Thursday uncertain Single Stock Trader Last night I noted a possible reversal in Verizon Communications Inc NYSE VZ and it did in fact rise on Wednesday though only by an anemic 11 cents and with a spinning top at that That flattened out the indicators too so once again I m not on board I m still waiting for my preferred setup |
VZ | Monday Lower | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Monday lower
ES pivot 2118 33 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ not a swing trade buy
Recap I didn t call last Friday just because it was op ex but based on the big gain from Thursday the puny 20 point advance in the Dow was about what you d expect So nothing ventured nothing lost Therefore let s move on to the third full week of May and see if it s time to sell yet or not So far that hasn t been a winner The technicals The Dow Last Friday the Dow advanced a bit more but the candle was decidedly bearish a hanging man and dark cloud cover combined sitting right on the upper BB with overbought indicators cross the board just short of resistance That all spells lower in my book The VIX The VIX meanwhile broke its recent support to close at 12 38 on a gravestone doji with oversold indicators now on YTD support I d have to guess that means higher next It did the last time we say this see 4 24 15 Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 42 AM EDT with ES down 0 07 ES had a little symmetric spinning top on Friday that just touched its upper BB right at record highs That a decent reversal warning and the Sunday overnight seems to be supporting that so I m not optimistic about Monday ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2109 25 to 2118 33 And that was enough to now put ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish Dollar index On Friday the only recently seemingly unstoppable dollar non confirmed Thursday s fake out doji with a tall bearish engulfing pattern for a 0 35 loss That leaves the indicators still oversold but it also doesn t look like the bottom is in yet Oh and I should add for the benefit of everyone crying about the strong dollar I remember the days when a dollar was worth 360 yen and also more than four Swiss francs and I m not that old So don t tell me the dollar is so strong Euro Meanwhile the euro continued its upward course after bottoming last month to close at 1 1442 on Friday and stopping right on YTD resistance And that may have been a resistance too far as the overnight is now moving lower again and forming a bearish stochastic crossover to boot So the euro might just close lower on Monday Transportation And finally on Friday the Trans confirmed Thursday s hammer with a nice nearly one percent advance This tall green marubozu also gave us a bullish stochastic crossover and sent all the indicators higher That all looks bullish to me for Monday
Aside from the trans the charts tonight seem to be looking rather negative so I m just going to have to call Monday lower Single Stock TraderLast Thursday night I said that Verizon Communications NYSE VZ was no longer a buy and that was true with an 18 cent drop on Friday on a bearish engulfing pattern So tonight it s still not a buy |
VZ | Wednesday Lower | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday lower
ES pivot 2126 58 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap Well Tuesday was probably the biggest snoozer of a record breaker in history The Dow hit new highs but ended up just 14 What does it all mean for Wednesday Let s check it out The technicals The Dow On Tuesday the Dow continued to play tag with its upper BB ending with a perfect spinning top Add in an RSI that s still overbought but now off its peak and a fresh bearish stochastic crossover and I d say the Dow s next move is lower The VIX Last night I was leery of relying too much on the VIX and indeed on Tuesday once again we saw a VIX rise on a day when the Dow was higher too Oddly enough we now have four red candles in a row for the VIX We re still just off YTD support and the indicators are still oversold so I still have to think the VIX goes higher from here Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 1 12 AM EDT with ES up 0 04 After touching new highs on Tuesday and punching through its upper BB ES fell back to end with a red spinning top and a reversal warning Indicators are now quite overbought and we ve got a new bearish stochastic crossover And with the overnight looking anemic I d guess the Wednesday s looking lower ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2122 33 to 2126 58 But that gain was enough to put ES back below its new pivot so this indicator goes back to bearish Dollar index Holy moly after a decent gain on Monday the dollar just exploded on Tuesday with a giant skyrocket gap up 1 16 pop for a descending RTC bullish trigger The recent downtrend is now dead And indicators are still not overbought so more upside is possible assuming the dollar doesn t want to take a rest after such a big move Euro And last night I wrote that the euro looks lower again Tuesday That was looking good as the euro took an even bigger dump than Monday to close at 1 1159m right on recent support And the selling s still not over according to the overnight as the indicators are still nowhere near oversold Look for support to fail on Wednesday and another lower close Transportation Here s some bearish divergence on Tuesday the Trans was unable to capitalize on Monday s 200 day MA breakout falling right back through it for a big 0 75 loss that erased all of Monday s gains That looks quite bearish to me so I think the trans go lower on Wednesday
It s feeling more like the dog days of August than the middle of May lately I don t know if all the Byg Wygs have already helicoptered off to the Hamptons for next week s holiday or what but we ve now had three days of next to no action at all And I m not expecting much different for the rest of the week Technically things are looking just bearish enough for me to call Wednesday lower but I m not looking for any major moves Single Stock Trader Last night I said I still wasn t in on Verizon NYSE VZ and it lost another nickel on Tuesday But this one was on a hammer with oversold RSI The stochastic though made a bearish crossover so I m still not in |
VZ | Tuesday Lower | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday lower
ES pivot 2126 08 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias lower technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ not a swing trade buy
Recap I hope everyone had a safe and relaxing Memorial Day weekend as we took time out from our daily activities to honor those who gave their lives for our country But now it s time to get back to work We note a disappointing Fed inspired decline last Friday and check the charts to see how that may affect this holiday shortened week The technicals The Dow With three down days in a row and indicators only just now moving off overbought it looks like there s still more downside available here for Tuesday The VIX Meanwhile the VIX continues to hover just barely north of 12 near yearlong support With a hammer on Friday and oversold indicators it looks primed for more upside Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 32 AM EDT with ES down 0 20 On Friday ES put in a dark cloud cover that started the indicators moving lower from an overbought peak The overnight is confirming that so I d say this chart looks lower for Tuesday ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2125 00 to 2126 08 After falling below the old number ES remains well below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish Dollar index The dollar took a huge pop on Friday with a big green bullish engulfing marubozu that took the indicators clear to overbought but still short of the upper BB So in the absence of a bearish candle I d have to think the dollar could go higher again Tuesday Euro And the euro disconfirmed Thursday s bullish piercing pattern with another leg down on Friday And with the Sunday overnight the gapping down huge already to the lower BB at 1 0942 it looks like a lower close on Tuesday though most of the damage is probably already done Transportation And finally here s an ominous sign on Friday the Trans dropped a big 0 81 far more than the rest of the market And they gave away support at 8802 with indicators hovering just above a lower BB that s now dropping away That all looks fairly negative in my book
The first day after a long weekend holiday is always problematic to call However tonight the charts are all pretty much in agreement and the verdict is bearish so I m calling Tuesday lower Single Stock TraderVerizon Communications NYSE VZ got caught up in the general negativity on Friday and moved lower With two inverted hammers in a row and indicators no longer oversold this stock is no longer a swing buy |
XOM | Exxon buys Singapore petrochemical plant to help meet Asian demand | Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM agrees to buy a refining and petrochemical plant owned by Jurong Aromatics in Singapore that will boost its output and meet demand in Asia no financial details of the purchase are provided The plant which will be integrated with XOM s existing petroleum complex on Jurong Island is expected to boost the company s aromatics production in Singapore to more than 3 5M metric tons year including 1 8M metric tons year of paraxylene a raw material for textiles and bottles Singapore already houses XOM s largest refining and petrochemical complex with a crude oil processing capacity of 592K bbl day and two steam crackers Now read |
CSCO | Bitcoin Buying Panic Leaves A Dangerously Overextended Market | What s interesting about the nature of markets is just when one side of the battle between buyers and sellers thinks they have it completely won they are at their most vulnerable Bitcoin has gained over 100 since the start of October on top of an over 900 gain for the year 2017 Since Bitcoin broke out into a in 2015 around 250 it is up over 40x Intoxicating gains that everyone is captivated by currently and wishes they could go back in time and capture
The reality though is the when few were talking about it and it was emerging out of a Stage 1 base Now everyone is talking about it and greed has taken over and the Stage 2 uptrend has gone into a breathtaking parabola Earlier today Bitcoin was more than 130 above it s 30 week MA which is the most overbought it has been since this uptrend began in 2015 Amazingly this is the third time in the last 6 months the price has stretched more than 100 above the MA that is exceedingly rare for something with a market cap of over 150 billion
For comparison purposes when Cisco Systems NASDAQ CSCO made its final parabolic move into the first quarter of 2001 during the Internet bubble it had a market cap of around 500 billion and only made it to 50 above its 30 week MA
QUALCOMM reached a market cap of 100 billion during the same time period which is more similar to Bitcoin but was only able to get 150 above its 30 week MA which is close to where Bitcoin is currently
It s impossible to tell where Bitcoin will top or even if it does move lower from here whether this area will be the top But it s easy to say Bitcoin is the most overextended since this uptrend began because it is And Bitcoin has no price support in the chart all the way back down to the 3000 4000 area which is more than a 50 loss from here |
XOM | Exxon Looking To Move Higher | ExxonMobil NYSE XOM started higher off of a low in January It ran higher in a steady channel for 6 months until it found resistance in mid July and pulled back The pullback was steep at first retracing 38 2 of the move higher within 2 weeks It settled from there consolidating for 6 weeks before a second push down reaching a 50 retracement The bounce from there made it back to resistance and then failed and consolidated again Another drop and bounce finds the price at resistance again into the coming week
The RSI is strong and rising in the bullish zone while the MACD is also bullish and improving The Bollinger Bands are turning to the upside to allow a move higher as well A break above resistance would look for a move higher and set a target on a Measured Move to near 110 There is resistance at 89 and then at 92 before the prior top at 95 50 Support lower comes at 86 50 and 82 75 The company is expected to report earnings next January 31st and short interest is low at 1
Options chains show concentrated Open Interest OI in December at 85 and 87 5 on the Put side and 87 5 and 90 on the Call side There is a lot more OI on the call side this week which could draw it higher In the January chain OI is spread from 60 through to 90 on the Put side increasing at the higher strikes On the Call side the big OI is focused from 85 to 95 and again much bigger than the Put side February options the first beyond the next earnings report are still building OI
ExxonMobil Ticker XOM
Trade Idea 1 Buy the stock on a move over 89 with a stop at 86
Trade Idea 2 Buy the stock on a move over 89 and add a December 30 Expiry 89 84 Put Spread 1 10 and sell a January 92 50 Covered Call 56 cents for low cost protection
Trade Idea 3 Buy the January 27 Expiry 86 89 92 5 Call Spread Risk Reversal 50 cents
Trade Idea 4 Buy the February 90 95 Call Spread 1 60 and sell the sell the February 85 Put 1 39
After reviewing over 1 000 charts I have found some good setups for the week This week s list contains the first five below to get you started early These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad picture reviewed Friday which heading in to December Options Expiration and the FOMC meeting sees US Equities looking strong but perhaps extended on the short term
Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its downtrend while Crude Oil continues to move higher The US Dollar Index also looks better to the upside while US Treasuries continue to be biased lower The Shanghai Composite and Emerging Markets both are biased to the upside with risk Emerging Markets being only a short term move
Volatility looks to remain subdued and abnormally low keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF s SPDR S P 500 NYSE SPY iShares Russell 2000 NYSE IWM and PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1 NASDAQ QQQ Their short term charts suggest possible exhaustion as they are over sold but longer term they look very strong The exception is the QQQ which has been stuck in a range but is now at the top end Perhaps it will benefit from a pullback in the other index ETFs Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad em well
DISCLAIMER The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer |
XOM | Oil s Supply Demand Imbalance Has Flipped What Happens Next | Over the weekend there was a surge of excitement in Houston where I live over the potential selection of Rex Tillerson the CEO of Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM as Secretary of State
Given that Houston has about 1 10th of its economy focused solely on oil drilling and exploration and has been hit hard by the downturn in oil prices the announcement is perceived to be the solution to the oil problem I spent a good bit of time talking about the issue with my friends at Fox26
Yes there is little doubt that between the perceived cuts to production from the recent OPEC meeting the selection of Tillerson as Secretary of State and now former Texas Governor Rick Perry being considered for the Department of Energy the psychologically bullish backdrop for oil prices is in place However do any of these events address the long term headwinds of oil to any significant degree
With respect to the oil cuts this is the 4th cut in production by OPEC since the turn of the century These cuts in production did not last long generally speaking but tend to occur at price peaks rather than price bottoms as shown below This is because OPEC talks much about cutting production prior to the act so prices tend to front run the actual decision
With respect to Tillerson his selection as Secretary of State bodes well for increases in global oil production and pipeline building in the future along with reduced regulations on oil production in the U S Furthermore as I stated in the interview look for removal of sanctions against Russia which will revive the previous Exxon Russia dealings
However the last thing we need is MORE supply as it is the current levels of production of oil which remains the core problem currently Increasing supply potentially creates a longer term issue for prices globally particularly in the face of weaker global demand due to demographics energy efficiencies and debt
However many point to the 2008 commodity crash as THE example as to why oil prices are destined to rise in the near term The clear issue remains supply as it relates to the price of any commodity With drilling in the Permian Basin expanding currently any cuts by OPEC are likely to be offset by increased domestic production Furthermore any rise in oil prices towards 55 bbl will likely make the OPEC cuts very short lived
As noted in the chart above the difference between 2008 and today is that previously the world was fearful of running out of oil versus worries about an oil glut today
The issues of supply versus price becomes clearer if we look further back in history to the last crash in commodity prices which marked an extremely long period of oil price suppression
Ultimately it is always about supply and demand
In 2008 when prices crashed the supply of oil into the marketplace had hit an all time low while global demand was at an all time high Remember the fears of peak oil were rampant in news headlines and in the financial markets Of course the financial crisis took hold and quickly realigned prices with demand
Of course the supply demand imbalance combined with suppressed commodity prices in 2008 was the perfect cocktail for a surge in prices as the fracking miracle came into focus The surge of supply alleviated the fears of oil company stability and investors rushed back into energy related companies to feast on the buffet of accelerating profitability into the infinite future
Banks also saw the advantages and were all too ready to lend out money for drilling of speculative wells which was fostered by Federal Reserve liquidity
As investors gobbled up equity shares the oil companies chased ever potential shale field in the U S in hopes to push stock prices higher It worked for a while
The problem is now the supply demand imbalance has reverted With supply now back at levels not seen since the 1970 s and demand waning due to a debt cycle driven global economic deflationary cycle the dynamics for a repeat of the pre 2008 surge in prices is unlikely
The supply demand problem is not likely to be resolved over the course of a few months The current dynamics of the financial markets global economies and the current level of supply is more akin to that of the early 1980 s Even if OPEC does reduce output along with the U S it is unlikely to rapidly reduce the level of supply currently Since oil production at any price is the major part of the revenue streams of energy related companies it is unlikely they will dramatically gut their production in the short term Therefore it is quite likely that low oil prices are likely to be with us for quite some time
However this certainly hasn t stopped Wall Street from jumping on the bullish bandwagon to lift oil prices over the last few months Remember while we talk about supply demand as it relates to price in the long term it is speculation in the options market that sets price in the short term The problem as shown by the net reportable crude oil contracts outstanding is that hope for higher oil prices has pushed speculation back to previous extremes
It is also worth noting with the S P 500 index hitting massive extremes as discussed in this past weekend s newsletter the correlation between the level of crude oil contracts and the financial markets
The current deviation between the S P 500 and oil contracts will likely not last long Either the S P 500 is due for a more meaningful correction or there is about to be a rapid rise in oil prices The latter is unlikely
The supply demand dynamics currently suggest that oil prices and energy related investments could find a long term bottom within the next year or so following the next recession However it does not mean those investments will repeat the run witnessed prior to 2008 or 2014 Such is the hope of many investors currently as their recency bias tends to overshadow the potential of the underlying fundamental dynamics As I showed in this past weekend s newsletter valuations are at historic extremes currently
Furthermore prices of Energy stocks have been pushed to 4 standard deviation extremes in recent weeks While investors have chased energy stocks on expectations of a very minor production cut from OPEC little has been done to resolve the fundamental valuation problems which face a majority of these companies
Notice energy stocks were not even this overbought at the previous peak in energy prices
For investors the argument can be made that oil prices could remain range bound for an extremely long period of time as witnessed in the 80 s and 90 s It is here that lessons learned in the past will once again be re learned with respect to the dangers of commodities fundamentals leverage and greed
For the Houston economy there is likely more pain to go through before we reach the end of this current cycle There are still far too many individuals chasing yields in MLP s and speculating on bottoms in energy related companies to suggest a true bottom has been reached
Just something to consider |
XOM | Canadian Overseas Petroleum Mesurado 1 Well Result | Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited V XOP has announced that the ExxonMobil NYSE XOM operated Mesurado 1 exploration well offshore Liberia did not encounter hydrocarbons The well targeted oil in a sequence of Late Cretaceous Santonian sands and intersected 145m of net sand of which 118m was deemed to be reservoir quality Logs taken across target intervals did not indicate hydrocarbons and the well is to be plugged and abandoned Pre drill we had valued COPL s Liberia LB 13 prospects at risked 10 5p share C 0 18 share assuming a 19 5 commercial chance of success Our group RENAV including net interest in OPL 226 Nigeria stood at risked 15 3p share C 0 26 share before today s announcement
Lack of hydrocarbons at Mesurado 1 is clearly disappointing and while the targeted Santonian sand sequence and thickness was in accordance with COPL s seismic interpretation the lack of hydrocarbons did not tie with management s interpretation of elastic impedance inversion studies COPL s press release does not indicate an immediate desire from the operator to drill a follow on well but COPL intends to re evaluate further leads on the block
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below |
VZ | Wednesday Uncertain | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday uncertain
ES pivot 2104 25 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias lower technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap So let s see Sunday night I said the market would go higher on Monday so it went lower Then Monday night I said it would go lower on Tuesday so it went higher Grrr This is getting ridiculous At least one thing I do know Wednesday is a Fed day and it is my policy to always call these days as uncertain so that s what I m going to do Accordingly we ll skip the detailed chart run down tonight as there s no point to it Less for me to write less for you to read The technicals ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2108 25 to 2104 25 That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish
The general expectation seems to be that the Fed isn t going to say anything on Wednesday we haven t already heard and I completely agree with that A June rate hike in particular looks completely off the table Still you never can tell so I m just calling Wednesday uncertain Single Stock TraderVerizon Communications Inc NYSE VZ has bee climbing its upper BB for four days now It can keep doing that for all I care that is not a buy signal Not in anybody s book that I know of So we just let this one slide for now |
VZ | Thursday Lower | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday lower
ES pivot 2100 67 Holding below is bearish
Friday bias lower technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap Well that was sure a non event The Fed announcement at 2 PM Wednesday wasn t even the biggest mover of the day And when all was said and done the Dow ended down 75 points marking the fourth up down daily alternation in a row I ll be really happy to see the end of April so let s just see what Thursday has in store The technicals The Dow The Dow on Wednesday put in its seventh reversal warning in a row with no reversal happening This is getting to be rather frustrating This time we got a second hanging man in a row We have overbought indicators and a bearish stochastic crossover but none of that has been working all month Will the end of April be any different The VIX On Wednesday the VIX put in a textbook classic long legged doji star above Tuesday s decline So with the VIX only now just off oversold we at least have a warning of a move lower but not a good one At the risk of sounding like a broken record this requires confirmation Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 16 AM EDT with ES down 0 05 ES put in its fourth day in a row of alternating gains and losses on Wednesday though each day featured lower highs and lower lows That s got the indicators finally off overbought though it also dropped ES out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup All in all this chart looks more negative than positive a the moment ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2104 25 to 2100 67 That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish from last night Dollar index The dollar is now in a downtrend apparent even to Stevie Wonder falling all the way back on Wednesday to where it was on February 26th as it continues to cascade down its lower BB Indicators are now majorly oversold with RSI at 1 52 its lowest level since September 18 2013 But note that back then there was still another whole month of downside to come So is this the end of the current downtrend Can t say just yet This is one falling knife I ll take a pass on Euro Meanwhile the euro had a great day closing at 1 1118 punching right up through its upper BB for its best close since March 4th But the indicators are now massively overbought RSI just hit 100 it doesn t go any higher than that That all makes the euro look ripe for some profit taking on Thursday Just look at the chart would you rather be buying here or selling here QED Transportation The Trans got hit hard on Wednesday down triple to loss of the Dow and saved only by their 200 day MA The indicators are now off overbought and the last time we were here the trans rebounded the next day But that s a crap shoot at this point I can t call this one
I m so tired of being wrong essentially all month long I just want to call Thursday uncertain But the preponderance of technical evidence looks bearish so I guess I ll just close my eyes and call Thursday lower Single Stock TraderWell Verizon Communications Inc NYSE VZ finally put an end to a six day winning streak proving that the longer it goes on the less likely you need to get on board And with a perfect doji star sitting on its upper BB we have a good sign of a move lower next I d not buy here |
VZ | Monday Higher | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Monday higher
ES pivot 2094 83 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap After two days of ugly losses to end April it was gratifying to see my call for a higher start for May last Friday come true Of course May is always tricky but we have some tricks of our own up our sleeves so let s check those charts and figure out which way Monday s headed The technicals The Dow On Friday the Dow gave us a big inside harami and a stochastic that s curving around for a bullish crossover and sent all the indicators higher It requires confirmation but this might be a sign of a move higher The VIX Last Thursday night I noted that this VIX touching its upper BB was a reversal sign worth watching And indeed it was as the VIX dropped a big 12 71 on Friday The double touch of the 200 day MA and the upper BB is always a good sign of a move lower But even that didn t form a bearish stochastic crossover and the indicators are still a long way from oversold so there s still room to run lower here Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 54 AM EDT with ES down 0 06 ES did well on Friday with a bullish one white soldier that was enough to set up a bullish stochastic crossover too thought that is now in jeopardy from the slight overnight sag we re getting So this chart is only weakly bullish at this point ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 2083 75 to 2094 83 That now puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish Dollar index Last Thursday night I wrote I d have to hazard that the next move is higher Good guess too because on Friday the dollar snapped a six day losing streak to pop out of its steep descending RTC We remain quite oversold so there s plenty of room to run higher here Euro And last Thursday night I also wrote of the euro This one looks ripe for a fall any day now Ad the very next day the euro fell back to 1 1198 on a bearish inverted hammer harami to break a seven day winning streak It s still in a rising RTC just barely but indicators have now peaked at overbought and the overnight is guiding lower so I d say it looks good for a lower close Monday Transportation The DTrans had a great day Friday up 1 68 on a backwards bullish piercing pattern that punched through their 200 day MA sent the indicators higher after hitting oversold and curved the stochastic around in preparation for a bullish crossover That all makes this chart look bullish
The overall tenor of the charts is mildly bullish so I guess I m just going to have to call Monday higher but more in the absence of any clear bearish signs than the presence of bullish ones Monday could be a doji day Single Stock TraderAfter two matching stars Verizon Communications NYSE VZ finally put in a clear bearish signal on Friday with a tall hanging man and a stochastic moving lower This one looks ready to fall again Monday |
VZ | Tuesday Depends On ES Pivot | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday higher only if ES remains above its pivot else lower
ES pivot 2107 42 No prediction
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap Last night I opined that Monday could be a doji day That certainly seems to have been the case as the Dow rose 46 points on an inverted hammer It s an interesting pattern so let s take a closer look chartwise The technicals The Dow OK so the inverted hammer is one thing but we also got a completed bullish stochastic crossover around levels from which the market has then proceeded higher But we did nearly touch the upper BB so I m going to say that s a wash and we re just waiting to see which side of the fence this one s coming down on The VIX The VIX had one of those odd days where it gained 1 18 Monday but on a red candle Last night I thought we d move lower but Monday s candle still makes me think that especially now that we ve got a bearish stochastic crossover going Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 37 AM EDT with ES down 0 07 ES had a decent day on Monday pushing right up to its record resistance before falling back a bit But that leaves the indicators in disarray with money flow and the stochastic rising but RSI and momentum falling That makes this chart too tough for me tonight ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2094 83 to 2107 42 That leaves us in the rare position of ES sitting right on top of its new pivot therefore this indicator is mum tonight neither bullish nor bearish Dollar index Last night I wrote of the dollar there s plenty of room to run higher here And so it did up another 0 20 Monday to trade outside its descending RTC for a bullish trigger It s a small hanging man but with indicators still oversold I d say more upside isn t out of the question here Euro And the euro similarly fell on Monday down to 1 1145 just outside its rising RTC for a bearish setup With a completed bearish stochastic crossover indicators still overbought but now falling and an overnight move lower I d say the euro s closing lower on Tuesday Transportation On Monday the Trans put in a giant gap up evening star but also completed a bullish stochastic crossover Eh Ya got me there pal I don t know what that s all about
Tonight we re seeing some conflicting signs in the charts and that s reflected in ES which is sitting right on its new pivot So that sounds like a perfect chance to make a conditional call if ES breaks above its pivot and remains there by mid morning Tuesday we close higher If it falls off below the pivot we close lower Single Stock TraderVerizon Communications Inc NYSE VZ stubbornly refuses to fall but still only managed a meager 11 cent gain on Monday with yet another reversal warning candle So basically nothing s changed and we just continue to wait for a suitable entry point |
VZ | Thursday Depends On ES Pivot | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday higher only if ES breaks above its pivot else lower
ES pivot 2076 42 Waiting for a break to determine direction
Friday bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ still not a swing trade buy
Recap My mom once told me that if you don t have anything nice to say about someone don t say anything at all That s something Auntie Janet should have remembered when she bad mouthed Mr Market Wednesday morning which sent him into a triple point snit A late afternoon rally helped to assuage his feelings only a little and the Dow still finished off 86 taking my call for a higher close with it Oh that and some crummy ADP numbers This was one of those days when the news trumped the technicals Not much I can do about that Let s finish off the week now and figure out Friday The technicals The Dow On Wednesday the Dow had its one minute of glory right out the gate and then that was that though it did manage to avoid ending at session lows So technically this is quite bearish with a clear break under week long congestion Indicators are now off overbought but not yet to oversold so it s too soon to call a reversal higher The VIX Last night I wrote there seems to be enough gas in the tank for another leg higher on Tuesday And whadaya know that s just what happened with the VIX up 5 87 on Wednesday Interestingly though it tried punching through its 200 day MA but fell back to close right on it More often than not though these failed breakout attempts end up succeeding the next day so I d not be surprised to see the VIX go one more day higher especially since the indicators are still not overbought Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 1 15 AM EDT with ES up 0 07 On Wednesday ES put in a hammer that pierced its lower BB and left the indicators just short of oversold This is a fair reversal indicator and ES seems to be finding some support in the overnight ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2092 42 to 2076 42 That now leaves ES sitting right on its new pivot for the second time in the past week so this indicator is mum tonight Dollar index The dollar had its biggest gap down on Wednesday since April 15th confirming Tuesday s bearish engulfing pattern And I said as much last night though I wasn t expecting this big a decline We ve now touched the lower BB but with it falling away it s not clear a bounce off it is imminent Euro I was wrong last night in thinking the euro would continue consolidating It shot up to 1 1357 on Wednesday and despite overbought indicators the trend seems to have resumed higher Transportation The Trans found support around 8600 on Wednesday and ended with a slight gain on a doji star that with oversold indicators is a decent reversal sign I d say there s more upside potential than downside risk at the moment
Tonight we re seeing a variety of reversal signs but they require confirmation The fact that ES is sitting on its new pivot supports the lack of directions here so I m going to do another conditional call if ES breaks above its new pivot by mid morning Thursday we close higher But if it breaks to the downside and stays there we close lower Single Stock TraderAt least I was right when last night I wrote of Verizon NYSE VZ I expect more selling And that just what we got on Wednesday with another nice 79 cent drop That was the payoff on the bearish engulfing pattern The indicators continue to fall and we re still not at buyable levels but we re finally getting closer The 200 day MA is at 48 99 call it 49 so I wouldn t feel bad at putting in a buy limit there |
XOM | VW in talks with Exxon Gazprom on gas powered cars Mueller on ORF | VIENNA Reuters Volkswagen DE VOWG p is in talks with Exxon Mobil Corp N XOM and Gazprom MM GAZP to back its efforts to promote cars running on natural gas Chief Executive Matthias Mueller told Austria s ORF radio Europe s biggest carmaker is working on a shift towards electric cars and fuel saving technologies as it looks to lower its fleet wide carbon dioxide CO2 emissions and to overcome its diesel emissions scandal We are now really trying to think out of the box and find solutions that can be helpful at least in this transition period of 10 to 20 years Mueller said in the interview aired on Wednesday Separately Mueller reiterated his opposition to offering payments to European customers affected by VW s emissions cheating In the United States VW has agreed to pay billions of dollars in fines and compensation payouts since admitting in September 2015 to cheating on federal diesel emissions tests This is a system relevant company and it s my task to ensure that this will continue to be the case Mueller said I will do nothing that disregards legal framework conditions and jeopardizes the company Regarding divestments two people familiar with the matter told Reuters last week that VW is considering a possible sale of Italian motorcycle maker Ducati
In a separate comments in Austria s Kurier newspaper Mueller sidestepped the Ducati question saying a company like VW must always review its portfolio and that includes acquisitions as well as sales |
XOM | VW talks natural gas powered cars | Looking to overcome Dieselgate Volkswagen OTCPK VLKAY is talking to Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM and Gazprom OTCQX GZPFY to back its efforts in promoting cars that run on natural gas We are now really trying to think out of the box and find solutions that can be helpful at least in this transition period of 10 to 20 years CEO Matthias Mueller told Austria s ORF radio Now read Dogs Of The Dow My Favorite Dog |
CSCO | Cisco Systems Inc Q1 F2018 Earnings Guidance Boost Shares | Cisco Systems Inc NASDAQ CSCO Q1 F2018 earnings results were released after closing bell tonight The company posted non GAAP earnings of 61 cents per share on 12 14 billion in revenue while Wall Street had been expecting 60 cents per share on 12 11 billion in revenue In the year ago quarter Cisco reported 12 4 billion in sales
Cisco Systems Q1 F2018 earnings
On a GAAP basis Cisco Systems Q1 F2018 earnings per share amounted to 48 cents compared to 46 cents a year ago Net income ticked upward to 2 4 billion from 2 3 billion Infrastructure Platforms revenues fell 4 year over year to 7 billion while Applications revenues rose 6 to 1 2 billion Security revenues increased 8 to 585 million while Other Products revenues fell 16 to 296 million Services revenues rose 1 to 3 1 billion
The company said recurring revenue was 32 of its total revenue representing a more than three point increase year over year Deferred revenue rose 10 year over year to 18 6 billion Deferred product gross margin rose 16 on the back of subscription based and software offers while deferred service revenue grew 5
The GAAP total gross margin was 61 2 while the GAAP product gross margin fell to 60 1 The non GAAP total gross margin was 63 7 while the non GAAP product gross margin was 63 The GAAP service gross margin was 64 5 while the non GAAP service gross margin was 65 6
Sales in the Americas declined 1 year over year while revenues from Europe the Middle East and Africa fell 3 Asia Pacific Japan and China sales fell 1
Cisco Systems releases strong guidance
The company guided for non GAAP earnings for its second fiscal quarter to be between 58 cents and 60 cents per share which is strong versus the consensus estimate of 58 cents per share It looks for GAAP earnings of 46 cents to 51 cents per share and a 1 to 3 increase in revenue year over year Cisco Systems expects a non GAAP gross margin of 62 5 to 63 5
Following the Cisco Systems Q1 F2018 earnings release the company s stock surged by as much as 4 08 to 35 50 per share in after hours trades |
CSCO | Cisco Systems CSCO Jumps Stock Rises 5 2 | Cisco Systems Inc NASDAQ CSCO was a big mover last session as the company saw its shares rise more than 5 on the day The move came on solid volume too with far more shares changing hands than in a normal session The stock picked up sharply from the near flat trend of 33 95 to 34 50 in the past one month time frame The move came after the company reported solid first quarter fiscal 2018 earnings The company has not seen any estimate revisions over the past one month while the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current quarter also remained unchanged The recent price action is encouraging though so make sure to keep a close watch on this firm in the near future Cisco Systems currently has a Zacks Rank 3 Hold while its is 0 00 Cisco Systems Inc Price A better ranked stock in the Computer Networking industry is Radcom Ltd NASDAQ RDCM which currently sports a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy You can see Is CSCO going up Or down Predict to see what others think or Looking for Stocks with Skyrocketing Upside Zacks has just released a Special Report on the booming investment opportunities of legal marijuana Ignited by new referendums and legislation this industry is expected to blast from an already robust 6 7 billion to 20 2 billion in 2021 Early investors stand to make a killing but you have to be ready to act and know just where to look |
VZ | Wednesday Lower | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday lower
ES pivot 2064 58 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias higher technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ now uncertain
Recap Though my official call was uncertain I did last night express my bias to the downside and that s where the Dow went to close out the quarter off 200 points We now look ahead to April no fooling The technicals The Dow The primary effect of Tuesday s downturn was to stunt what looked like the beginning of another cycle up as RSI turned lower and the stochastic s bullish crossover flattened out And the candle is a bearish harami so Wednesday s not looking all that promising right now The VIX I was wrong about the VIX last night The hammer prevailed and the VIX moved higher Tuesday despite being overbought on a bullish setup from a descending RTC exit punching back up through its 200 day MA That now becomes support though the candle was a spinning top indicating a lack of conviction here Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 27 AM EDT with S P 500 down 0 79 On Tuesday ES was unable to capitalize on Monday s gains and in fact put in a bearish harami And the decline in the overnight has just canceled Monday s bullish stochastic crossover turning it into a bearish one from a low level These are rare events and generally not good ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2068 17 to 2064 58 That now puts ES below the new pivot and so this indicator turns bearish Dollar index It was good I waited for confirmation of Monday s suspected evening star since it didn t come Instead the dollar gapped up again and put in yet another star leaving us right back where we were once again needing confirmation before making any calls One thing s clear we re now in a new rising RTC Euro And similarly the euro remains in a descending RTC closing back down to 1 0754 on Tuesday We didn t reach parity in March but that s still on the table for sometime this year Transportation The Trans mirrored the Dow on Tuesday so they re not looking so hot either right now
April is generally bullish and the first day of April is traditionally quite bullish But right now that s about the only thing it s got going for it The futures are looking fairly ugly in the overnight no doubt on late news that the Iran nuke talks are on the rocks and the rest of the charts are indecisive at best So despite it being the first I m going to have to call Wednesday lower Perhaps I will be Fooled Single Stock TraderI was a bit surprised to see Verizon Communications Inc NYSE VZ drop right back through its 200 day MA on Tuesday Chalk it up to end of quarter shenanigans I guess It does call into question whether VZ has the chops to put in a further advance so I m going to hold off on this one for now |
VZ | Thursday Uncertain | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday uncertain
ES pivot 2049 08 Holding above is bullish
Friday bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ is a swing buy
Recap Ha April couldn t fool the Night Owl as the market defied history and moved lower on Wednesday just like I said it would last night Now let us atone for that little bit of hubris by attempting to figure out whither Thursday The technicals The Dow On April Fool s the Dow dug itself a deep hole early on and then spent the rest of the day trying to climb back out but didn t quite make it The result was a nice hammer that with oversold indicators suggests a move higher on Thursday The VIX In a highly unusual move on Wednesday the VIX not only fell on a day the rest of the market did too but it put in a giant inverted hammer propped up by its 200 day MA With the momentum downward and overbought indicators I d say the next move here is lower again Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 19 AM EDT with ES down 0 11 ES gapped down on Wednesday but put in a tomahawk my name for a hammer that has a bit of an upper shadow sticking out Indicators remain oversold and support at 2049 held nicely so there is a possible reversal higher here though the overnight action doesn t really support that idea ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot fives from 2064 58 to 2049 08 Thanks entirely to the size of that drop ES is now back above the new pivot so this indicator for what it s worth now turns bullish Dollar index We ve been pondering evening stars for the dollar for two nights now and on Wednesday got a result with the dollar losing 0 19 on a gap down spinning top to complete a bearish evening star With indicators overbought and a stochastic about to form a bearish crossover I d say the dollar is looking lower on Thursday Euro The euro managed a gain on Wednesday but it was a stubby green spinning top at the lower end of Tuesday s big plunge so the latest downtrend remains intact Calling the euro higher remains risky business one I m not undertaking right now Transportation And finally the Trans were hammered again on Wednesday They made a test successful of the 200 day MA to end with a 0 79 loss and a fat hammer With oversold indicators this is a half decent reversal sign though one that requires confirmation
Meh the charts seem a bit jittery to me tonight and I m not getting a good read on them We have a number of reversal signs but they all require confirmation So in the absence of a definitive read one way or the other I guess all that leaves is for me to call Thursday uncertain Single Stock TraderVerizon Communications Inc NYSE VZ redeemed itself on April 1st with a nice bullish piercing pattern So although we now have three descending candles this one looks ready to move higher |
VZ | Monday Lower | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Monday lower
ES pivot 2053 75 Holding below is bearish
Friday bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ moving higher
Recap With a holiday shortened week last week and a low volume day last Thursday tonight the charts are more mumbling than talking to me I don t like calling Mondays in general because of the intervening two days off Friday holiday weeks just make that problem harder I also don t like working off three day old charts so I m going to omit the chart details tonight We ll resume the usual run down on Monday night The technicals Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 19 AM EDT with ES down 0 69 Most of that decline came early on Friday s rump session just before the market closed There s been a bit of a drift higher in the Sunday overnight but it doesn t convince me ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2058 57 to 2053 75 We re now below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish
Historically the Monday after Easter is weak according to the Stock Traders Almanac and I don t see anything tonight that would contradict that so I m just going to call Monday lower Single Stock TraderLast Wednesday night of Verizon Communications Inc NYSE VZ I wrote this one looks ready to move higher And that s just what it did on Thursday up 55 cents to punch right through its 200 day MA So with indicators sill moving towards overbought and the upper BB not til 50 02 I d say there s more upside left here on Monday |
VZ | Wednesday Uncertain | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday uncertain
ES pivot 2072 17 Holding below is bearish
Friday bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ moving lower
Recap Well that was interesting Last night I spent the entire evening figuring out a nasty issue with my PC instead of studying the markets I rebooted because it had been an entire month and things were getting pretty slow but after that I discovered I couldn t open any programs I d click on an icon and nothing would happen It took me a long time to realize that something w happening after all it was just really s l o w like 20 minutes to start a program Complicating matters was the fact that I couldn t do a System Restore that was 100 fail Finally I figured out that a recent upgrade to ZoneAlarm was the culprit I uninstalled that and then life was good again Freakin computers Anyway we re back baby so let s see if we can now do some real work instead of wasting time on that nonsense The technicals The Dow On Tuesday the Dow put in a rare classic gravestone doji With indicators nearly overbought I d say this is a good sign of lower to come The VIX And contrariwise on Tuesday the VIX rose a scant 0 27 on a nice hammer stopping just under its 200 day MA Indicators are closing in on oversold so this is a decent sign of a move higher next though one that requires confirmation Market index futures Tonight all three futures are completely unchanged at 12 18 AM EDT with ES NQ and YM all dead even ES did some retracing Tuesday of Monday s big gain with a bearish inverted hammer The indicators are all over the place some rising some falling and OBV continues to be a concern now running at negative 3M Overall though this chart is too tough to call It happens sometimes ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2064 00 to 2072 17 That move now leaves ES below the new pivot so this indicator is bearish Dollar index On Tuesday the dollar completed a bullish morning star with a big 1 12 gap up That was enough to cause the indicators to start rising again before even getting near oversold and cause the stochastic to start curving around for a bullish crossover from a high level That all looks positive for Wednesday Euro Monday s doji star for the euro neatly telegraphed Tuesday s decline that brings us right back to 1 0839 and a fresh bearish stochastic crossover There s something of a rally going on in the overnight but I think the daily outlook for Wednesday is lower Transportation After breaking the 200 day MA two days ago on Tuesday the Trans gave us some bullish divergence by gaining 0 48 on a day the rest of the market was lower with an inverted hammer following a bottoming spinning top With indicators rising but still not yet off oversold this chart seems to have more room to run
Note I m not incrementing the counters for days when I wasn t able to put out a post And the winner is Hmm I did a bit of hand wringing over this one but you know what I m seeing A symmetrical triangle is developing in the Dow and it looks to be near completion so that would be bullish later this week But it s not clear there isn t one more leg down coming These nervous small range doji ish days don t give you much meat to chew on I could just go ahead and call it lower but that would just be guessing so officially I m going to have to call Wednesday uncertain Single Stock Trader OK so let s get caught up here too On Monday Verizon Communications Inc NYSE VZ put in a spinning top warning of an impending reversal On Tuesday we got confirmation in a big way with a giant red bearish engulfing marubozu that stopped the indicators climb just short of overbought VZ is definitely not a buy on this chart |
VZ | Thursday Depends On ES pivot | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday higher if ES stays above its pivot else lower
ES pivot 2073 58 Holding above is bullish
Friday bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ not a buy
Recap I think I was right to call Wednesday uncertain since we finished with just a 27 point gain in the Dow on a spindly spinning top that continues to indicate indecision in the market The Fed minutes didn t help much either Some people want rate hike in June some in September and some not til 2016 Who knows I have my hands full just worrying about the charts So let s take a peek at them right now and see what s what The technicals The Dow After a tall inverted hammer on Tuesday we got anther reversal candle on Wednesday in the Dow With indicators now nearly overbought it looks like the Dow is signaling an impending move lower here The VIX For the second time in a week the VIX has given us some divergence this time falling significant 5 41 on a day the rest of the market rose That now makes four read candles out of five and three lower highs and lower lows in a row But indicators are still not yet oversold I thought after yesterday s hammer we d see a move higher but I was wise enough to mention that this required confirmation which we did not get So now it s looking lower again until we see some sort of bottoming candle Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 12 AM EDT with ES down 0 06 On Wednesday ES disconfirmed Tuesday s spinning top with a decent gain though it s still having trouble with resistance around 2077 Indicators are now near overbought so it s not clear there s enough gas in the tank to make much more headway on Thursday And the overnight isn t showing much enthusiasm at this point either ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises a tad from 2072 17 to 2073 58 That leaves ES above the new pivot but just barely so this indicator is now only weakly bullish US Dollar Index Last night I wrote of the dollar a bunch of technical jargon all looks positive for Wednesday And whadaya know the dollar rose with a big green candle belying the small 0 06 gain This bullish engulfing pattern also gave us a bullish stochastic crossover so I d say it looks good for more upside on Thursday Euro Last week some idiot money manager at a place whose name I will not mention except that their initials are Wells Fargo told me that he couldn t predict the future and I couldn t either Well as far as the euro on Wednesday goes he was half right because last night I wrote the daily outlook for Wednesday is lower And just like that the euro took another leg down to close at 1 0808 OK it was a spindly spinning top but the new overnight is disconfirming that and moving lower once again Indicators are still a ways from oversold so I epect a retest of last month s lows at 1 0733 in short order Transportation After a decent 071 gain Wednesday the trans are now in a new rising RTC that stopped just short of their 200 day MA But with a bullish trigger on a descending RTC exit a bullish stochastic crossover and indicators still just barely off oversold there seems to be plenty of gas in the tank for another move higher Thursday
Once again we have some sort of wishy washy charts that seem to be wanting to do something only they re not quite sure what it is Well that seems to call for another conditional call if ES manages to remain above its new pivot by mid morning Thursday we ll close higher If on the other hand it drops below the pivot and stays there we close lower Single Stock Trader Huh I wasn t expecting Verizon Communications Inc NYSE VZ to claw its way back above its 200 day MA on Wednesday after opening below it But it s still a bearish exit on the rising RTC and a bearish stochastic crossover so I m still on getting on board at this point |
VZ | Wednesday Lower | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday lower
ES pivot 2086 50 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias lower technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ a swing trade buy
Recap Well now that I can finally see again what I see is that not much happened while I was gone We ve had a three day run of up down up with the Dow ending just under where it was Friday afternoon So let s just pick up where we left off and move on to Wednesday The technicals The Dow On Tuesday the Dow put in some modest gains but this makes the third day of lower highs while the indicators continue overbought as we inch closer to the right edge of the current rising RTC The Dow s looking kinda tired right now is all I can say The VIX A more decisive note came from the VIX though on Tuesday with a strong dark cloud cover good for a 1 94 decline The indicators are only just off oversold but the candlestick case looks more compelling here and I d not be surprised to see the VIX lower on Wednesday Market index futures Tonight all three futures are slightly lower at 12 11 AM EDT with ES down 0 05 Despite ES s green hammer on Tuesday the overbought indicators and bearish stochastic crossover make this chart look bearish for Wednesday The lack of any positive movement in the overnight supports this theory ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot drops from 2091 00 to 2086 50 That puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish Dollar index On Friday the dollar looked to be setting up a bearish evening star Well it took one extra day but the payoff came Tuesday with a big 0 83 fall to drop right out of the rising RTC for a bearish setup and a bearish stochastic crossover That s enough for me I say the dollar goes lower again Wednesday Euro And you can just mirror image all of the above for the euro Looks higher on Wednesday after bouncing off its lower BB Transportation On Tuesday the trannies put in a very tall hammer for a small 0 10 loss on a successful test of the 200 day MA But this was also arising RTC exit for a bearish setup and a bearish stochastic crossover So we have conflicting indicators here but overall I m going to guess there s more downside to come
The overall impression tonight is bearish so I m just going to have to call Wednesday lower Single Stock TraderVerizon Communications NYSE VZ continues to be haunted by indecision with Tuesday s doji star the latest example Propped up only by its 200 day MA I still can t get on board this bus These trades are only for when all the stars align and so far they re not |
VZ | Thursday Higher | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday higher
ES pivot 2097 50 Holding above is bullish
Firday bias lower technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ not a swing trade buy
Recap Oh great Sometimes I get on these wrong streaks and this is one of them I called Wednesday lower so of course it went higher Perhaps I did not give enough credence to the futures and the VIX Well we won t make that mistake again at least not soon So let s see what lessons we an apply here for Thursday The technicals The Dow On Wednesday the Dow completely ignored a bearish harami and overbought indicators to gain another 76 points That keeps the rising RTC intact and to heck with the indicators which are now all broken at overbought The next key point is the upper BB at 18 215 and I expect to touch that on Thursday The VIX At least I was right last night when I wrote I d not be surprised to see the VIX lower on Wednesday That dark cloud cover yielded a 6 drop on Wednesday With two black crows cawing away now we see the lower BB and support both at 12 37 next up and I expect to hit them on Thursday could be a bottoming day Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 12 10 AM EDT with ES up 0 10 ES had a nice day on Wednesday climbing back to resistance around 2100 Indicators are all way overbought but broken at these levels There s new resistance at 2107 and then the upper BB at 2111 but after being so overbought for a week now does ES have to mojo to reach that The overnight pin action seems to suggest it might ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2086 50 to 2097 50 That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish Dollar index Well I was right about this one too last night when I wrote I say the dollar goes lower again Wednesday And down we went off another 0 42 That s two black crows a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit and a completed bearish stochastic crossover And that all spells lower again in my book Euro Meanwhile the euro continued its bounce Monday off its lower BB with another gain Wednesday It was a hanging man but the new overnight seems to be dis confirming that and with indicators still only just barely off oversold there seems to be plenty of room to run as the Parityville Express suddenly moves into reverse Transportation Whoa the Trans has been positively psychopathic the past few days On Tuesday we got a giant hammer and on Wednesday we got an equally large inverted hammer After a two day swing between 8586 and 8784 we finished nearly unchanged What we did get was a bearish RTC trigger overbought indicators and a bearish stochastic crossover Hey I can t be wrong forever and technically this spells lower to me
I ve been finding this choppy action lately tough to deal with but I guess we ll take another stab at it With a more or less general uptrend in place and in the absence of any topping candles or negativity from the futures I guess I ll just go ahead and call Thursday higher Single Stock TraderWith its stochastic having suddenly threaded out halfway between overbought and oversold Verizon NYSE VZ is no longer oscillating nicely the way it had been all the way back to last December This is definitely not my ideal swing trade setup though that doesn t mean VZ couldn t continue to go higher from here |
VZ | Monday Higher | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Monday higher
ES pivot 2085 92 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias lower technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ moving lower
Recap
In a model of understatement last Thursday night I wrote the charts seem a bit negative tonight And on Friday we got hammered across the board for whatever excuse you like options expirations the Chinese the Iranians and of course the ever popular Greeks Despite a late afternoon rally attempt some technical damage was done so let s take a look at that now as we begin a new week
The technicals The Dow The Dow provided scant warning on Thursday in the form of a small doji star of its massive plunge on Friday when it dove right out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup off a rising RTC It also gave us a fresh bearish stochastic crossover and sent the indicators right off overbought That leaves this chart looking full on bearish The only saving grace here is something of a tail int he lower shadow That s the sort of thing we ve seen before reversals in the last two big dumps we ve gotten in the past month The VIX And on Friday the VIX took a big gap up 10 jump to nearly hit its 200 day MA but ending with almost a tall gravestone doji It send the indicators off oversold but also qualifies as 2 3 of a bearish evening star We ve seen this pattern before though and I d give better than even odds this one goes lower on Monday Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 12 25 AM EDT with ES up a non trivial 0 40 This is a significant bounce off Friday s close and while that drop gave us a bearish setup on a rising RTC exit the overnight seems to suggest a move higher on Monday ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot dives from 2098 17 to 2085 92 That dump plus the rising overnight now puts ES back above the new pivot so this indicator turns bullish Dollar index On Friday the dollar gained 0 10 on a green bullish piercing pattern Indicators have been falling for a while now and are nearly oversold so I d say the dollar is due for a bounce maybe Monday but if not then then more likely Tuesday Euro The euro spent last week in a tight rising RTC but on Friday finally failed to make a higher high closing at 1 0800 We re now back to overbought for the firs time in a month and the Sunday overnight while gapping higher is forming a red hanging man making me think there s a warning here of a move lower on Monday Transportation The Trans of course fell on Friday too though only half as much as the Dow Still they sliced right through their 200 day MA and sent the indicators off overbought and continued a bearish stochastic crossover There s nothing bullish on this chart
While we have now exited a two week long rising trend I think that last Friday s action was somewhat overdone When the traders all wake up Monday morning and discover that the sun is still rising in the east and the earth has not stopped turning they may very well step in to pick up some bargains That still leaves Tuesday in question but I think for now I m going to call Monday higher Single Stock TraderOn Friday Verizon NYSE VZ fell back under its 200 day MA with a perfect red gap down spinning top that also caused a bearish stochastic crossover and sent the other indicators lower too This is what I ve been waiting for I think there s still more downside to come but we re now getting ready for the next swing trade entry probably sometime this week |
XOM | Judge says Exxon owes 19 95 million for Texas refinery pollution | HOUSTON Reuters A federal judge ruled on Wednesday that ExxonMobil NYSE XOM Corp should pay a 19 95 million penalty for pollution from its Baytown Texas refining and chemical plant complex between 2005 and 2013 U S District Court Judge David Hittner issued the ruling in a citizen lawsuit brought under the U S Clean Air Act by two environmental groups Environment Texas and the Sierra Club Environment Texas welcomed the decision in the long running suit which was first filed in 2010 We think it might be the largest citizen suit penalty in U S history said Luke Metzger director of Environment Texas It definitely means it pays not to pollute Exxon said it would consider its legal options and may appeal the ruling We disagree with the court s decision and the award of any penalty Exxon spokesman Todd Spitler said in an emailed statement As the court expressed in its decision ExxonMobil s full compliance history and good faith efforts to comply weigh against assessing any penalty The suit was filed under a provision of the Clean Air Act that allows citizens to sue when regulators have failed to stop pollution The two groups had contended the penalty could run as high as 573 million but had only sought 41 million In a 101 page decision Hittner ruled there had been 16 386 days of violations and 10 million pounds 4 5 million kg of pollutants had been released in violation of operating permits issued to Exxon for the Baytown complex The court finds given the number of days of violations and the quantitative amount of emissions released as a result the seriousness factor weighs in favor of the assessment of a penalty he wrote The decision comes about a year after the Fifth U S Circuit Court of Appeals determined Hittner had errored in a 2014 ruling assessing Exxon s liability for pollution from the refinery chemical plant and olefins plant in the Baytown complex in the eastern suburbs of Houston The Fifth Circuit Court sent the case back to Hittner to reassess Exxon s liability The Baytown complex which includes the second largest refinery in the United States is regulated by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality TCEQ which had fined Exxon 1 4 million for pollution Hittner deducted that amount in determining the penalty The penalty will be paid to the federal government Hittner said Exxon was liable for legal fees incurred by the two environmental groups |
XOM | Next battleground An aging Great Lakes pipeline stirs new protest | By Nia Williams CALGARY Alberta Reuters The growing protest movement against U S oil and gas pipelines has so far focused on stopping or delaying new construction with some high profile successes Now in Michigan a broad coalition of opponents is entering a new frontier Pushing to rip out and reroute an existing pipeline Enbridge Inc s TO ENB aging Line 5 which crosses the Straits of Mackinac They fear the pipeline will leak into the Great Lakes which contain about a fifth of the world s fresh water and sustain the state s second and third largest industries agriculture and tourism Those concerns which are shared by two likely candidates for governor also have far reaching implications for energy firms and consumers Spanning 645 miles Line 5 carries 540 000 barrels per day of light Canadian crude and refined products between Wisconsin and Ontario making it a key link in Enbridge s network transporting western Canadian oil to eastern refineries It also delivers about half the propane used to heat Michigan homes Moving the pipeline built in 1953 would cost Enbridge 4 2 million per mile or about 2 7 billion total according to an estimate from IHS Markit analyst Phil Hopkins Enbridge spokesman Ryan Duffy said that the line is structurally sound and constantly monitored tested and inspected to prevent leaks The firm plans to add 18 additional supports in the Straits this summer he said The unprecedented demands to move an existing pipeline present steep political and regulatory challenges said Dirk Lever an analyst with AltaCorp Capital in Calgary Move it The question is where he said And good luck with building a new pipeline The Michigan controversy is only the latest pipeline fight Last year protests by North Dakota s Standing Rock Sioux a Native American tribe garnered national attention and delayed the opening of Energy Transfer Partners N ETP Dakota Access Pipeline which finally won approval in February Another ETP pipeline proposed in Louisiana has drawn protests from flood protection advocates and commercial fishermen The Keystone XL pipeline planned by TransCanada Corp TO TRP now faces a political showdown over route approval in Nebraska amid protests from farmers and ranchers CAMPAIGN ISSUE In Michigan pipeline opponents include regional businesses and churches as well as local and national environmental groups State officials have ordered two independent reports expected in June one on the pipeline s reliability and another on potential alternatives if the state moves to revoke easements that allow Line 5 to operate The reports could fuel a debate that is expected to intensify in the 2018 governor s race Many opponents argue the 64 year old Enbridge pipeline has already outlived its predicted life span They cite a 2015 interview with an engineer on the original project Bruce Trudgen who said that at the time of construction the pipeline was expected to last 50 years Common sense dictates that a pipeline which is already 28 percent past its viable life will eventually be decommissioned said Gretchen Whitmer a former Michigan senator now campaigning for the Democratic nomination for governor Government would be wise to plan for that proactively before disaster strikes Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette widely expected to run for governor as a Republican has also expressed concerns about pipeline Enbridge which operates more than 17 000 miles 28 000 kilometres of oil and gas pipeline across North America disputes the assertion that Line 5 has any specific life expectancy Regardless of initial predications Duffy said new technology developed since the 1950s can now keep pipelines in better condition for longer A 1950s ENGINEERING FEAT Michigan s debate over whether Line 5 s age equates to a safety hazard could resonate across a nation crisscrossed with decades old pipelines More than half of U S pipelines were built in the 1950s or 1960s according the U S Department of Transportation When the Enbridge line reaches the Straits of Mackinac which connect lakes Huron and Michigan it splits into twin 20 inch diameter steel pipes hailed as a feat of modern engineering when they were installed in 1953 Now opponents here view them as the product of an era in which the damage from oil spills was not well understood Enbridge is still working to overcome public concern over the 2010 failure of its Line 6B pipeline which leaked 20 000 barrels of crude into Michigan s Kalamazoo River in one of the largest inland spills in U S history The Straits five miles wide and 120 feet deep swirl with strong currents that would disperse contaminants from an oil spill faster than anywhere else in the Great Lakes according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration The line has never spilled under the Straits but has leaked at least eight times at other points between 1980 and October 2015 according to the U S Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration PHMSA None of the leaks were larger than 100 barrels The leak that raised the most concern was a February 2012 incident in central Michigan that environmentalists contend exposed a flaw in the original construction The leak of about 20 barrels was traced to a tear in the pipeline that was estimated to have originated at about the time the line was constructed according to a PHMSA report on the spill The tear later spread into a larger crack causing the leak The nature of the problem is a defect in the pipeline traced to the entire construction period in 1953 so that raised a lot of doubts said David Holtz a member of environmental group Sierra Club Enbridge declined to comment on the leaks The pipeline s age is only one factor in considering whether it poses an environmental hazard said Jim Feather a former president of the National Association of Corrosion Experts and a retired ExxonMobil NYSE XOM Corp engineering advisor Line 5 has done well in its regular in line inspections he said and has ample protections in place Just because something is old does not mean it s at much greater risk of failure Feather said |
XOM | Exxon 1 7 on big jump in Q1 earnings revenues | Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM 1 7 premarket after reporting better than expected Q1 earnings which more than doubled thanks to rising crude oil prices and cost cuts and revenues rose 30 Y Y XOM says its upstream business saw earnings swing to a profit of 2 3B from a 76M loss in the year ago quarter citing higher liquids and gas realizations U S upstream lost 18M compared to an 832M loss in Q1 2016 while non U S upstream earnings were 2 3B up 1 5B from the prior year Q1 downstream earnings totaled 1 1B up by 210M from a year ago benefiting from increased refinery throughput U S downstream earnings were 292M up 105M from a year ago while non U S downstream earnings of 824M rose by 105M from last year Q1 chemical earnings of 1 2B were 184M lower than in Q1 2016 as weaker margins decreased earnings by 70M XOM says its global production fell 4 Y Y to 4 2M boe day liquids production of 2 3M bbl day fell by 205K bbl day while natural gas production of 10 9B cf day rose by 184M cf day Now read What To Expect From Exxon Mobil |
XOM | Exxon Mobil profit beats Street as oil prices move higher | By Ernest Scheyder HOUSTON Reuters Exxon Mobil Corp N XOM the world s largest publicly traded oil producer posted a better than expected quarterly profit on Friday helped by rising crude prices CLc1 and cost cuts The results reflected the slowly improving dynamics for the company as well as the global energy industry with oil prices up more than 50 percent since early 2015 Still pockets of weakness remained Exxon s U S oil and gas division posted a loss Plant repair costs pushed earnings down in the company s chemical division which had kept Exxon profitable during the two year oil price downturn Net income jumped to 4 01 billion or 95 cents per share from 1 81 billion or 43 cents per share in the year ago quarter Analysts expected earnings of 85 cents per share according to Thomson Reuters I B E S Production fell 4 percent to 4 2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day The company gobbled up acreage and reserves across the globe during the quarter with deals in Texas and Mozambique part of a plan to expand Exxon s growth potential Exxon raised its quarterly dividend this week by 3 percent
Shares of Texas based Exxon rose 1 6 percent to 82 60 in premarket trading |
CSCO | Cisco CSCO Gains On Q1 Earnings Beat Optimistic Guidance | Cisco Systems Inc NASDAQ CSCO just released its fiscal first quarter financial results posting earnings of 61 cents per share and revenues of 12 14 billion
Currently CSCO is a Zacks Rank 3 Hold and is up 3 52 to 35 31 per share in after hours trading shortly after its earnings report was released
Cisco
Beat earnings estimates The company posted non GAAP earnings of 0 61 per share beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 0 60
Matched revenue estimates The company saw revenue figures of 12 136 billion basically matching our consensus estimate of 12 14 billion
Total revenue was down about 2 year over year while non GAAP earnings were in line with last year s results GAAP net income came in at 2 4 billion which was up about 3 from the prior year period
Our results in Q1 demonstrate the continued progress we re making on our strategy said CEO Chuck Robbins The network has never been more critical to business success Cisco is delivering more insights and intelligence as we help our customers build highly secure intelligent platforms for digital business
For the second quarter of fiscal 2018 Cisco expects non GAAP earnings to fall in the range of 58 cents to 60 cents per share Our current consensus estimate is calling for earnings of 58 cents per share and the company reported earnings of 57 cents per share in the comparable quarter last year
Here s a graph that looks at Cisco s recent earnings surprise history Cisco Systems Inc Price Consensus and EPS Surprise Cisco is the worldwide leader in IT that helps companies seize the opportunities of tomorrow by proving that amazing things can happen when you connect the previously unconnected The company is an American multinational technology conglomerate headquartered in San Jose California Cisco develops manufactures and sells networking hardware telecommunications equipment and other high technology services and products
Check back later for our full analysis on Cisco s latest earnings report
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The Hottest Tech Mega Trend of All
Last year it generated 8 billion in global revenues By 2020 it s predicted to blast through the roof to 47 billion Famed investor Mark Cuban says it will produce the world s first trillionaires but that should still leave plenty of money for regular investors who make the right trades early |
CSCO | ETFs Set To Surge As Cisco Sees Revenue Growth In 2 Years | After the closing bell on Wednesday one of the tech primes Cisco Systems NASDAQ CSCO continued the strong momentum in the tech space with better than expected fiscal first quarter results The networking giant beat the earnings estimate while matched the revenue estimates Additionally it provided an upbeat outlook expecting the first revenue growth in two years for the ongoing second quarter suggesting the start of the company s turnaround story see Results in DetailEarnings of 61 cents per share outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny and were in line with the year ago quarter Revenues of 12 14 billion met the estimates but declined for the eight consecutive quarter with a 2 year over year fall The networking leader s transition from its traditional business of high end switches and routers to high growth areas such as security the Internet of Things and cloud computing is ongoing In the reported quarter the remarkable performance was driven by gains from its newer businesses such as security which more than offset declines in its traditional switches and routers business As a result Cisco now expects revenues to turn around and post the first revenue growth of 1 3 in the fiscal second quarter after eight consecutive quarters of decline Earnings per share are expected in the range of 58 60 cents the midpoint of which is above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 58 cents The bullish revenue outlook has spread optimism into the company s prospects pushing CSCO shares up as much as 5 1 in after hours trading The stock rallied to levels not seen for more than 15 years Currently Cisco has a Zacks Rank 3 Hold and a VGM Style Score of B It boasts a solid Industry Rank in the indicating that the stock is primed for growth read ETFs to WatchGiven this ETFs having the largest allocation to this network giant will be in focus over the coming days Investors should closely monitor the movement in these funds and grab the opportunity when it arises iShares North American Tech Multimedia Networking ETF SNX IGN This ETF provides a concentrated exposure to domestic multimedia networking securities by tracking the S P North American Technology Multimedia Networking Index Holding 24 securities in its basket Cisco takes the second spot with an 8 8 allocation The product has accumulated 46 3 million in its asset base while sees a lower volume of around 15 000 shares a day Expense ratio comes in at 0 48 The fund has added 6 2 in the year to date time frame and carries a Zacks ETF Rank 3 Hold with a High risk outlook First Trust NASDAQ Technology Dividend Index Fund This fund provides exposure to the dividend payers in the technology sector by tracking the Nasdaq Technology Dividend Index The product has amassed about 784 2 million in its asset base and trades in moderate volume of about 58 000 shares per day The ETF charges 50 bps in annual fees and holds about 95 securities in its basket Of these firms CSCO occupies the third position making up roughly 7 9 of the assets In terms of industrial exposure the fund allocates one fourth portion in semiconductor and semiconductor equipment followed by software 14 6 technology hardware storage peripherals 12 1 diversified telecom services 10 1 and communications equipment 9 8 The fund is up 18 so far this year read First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF This ETF follows the Nasdaq CTA Cybersecurity Index which measures the performance of companies engaged in the cyber security segment of the technology and industrials sectors It has accumulated 340 5 million in its asset base The fund charges 60 bps in annual fees and trades in a moderate average daily volume of about 1 million shares In total the product holds 36 stocks in its basket with Cisco taking the second spot at 6 3 It is skewed toward the software industry at 52 8 while communications equipment rounds off the next spot at 18 8 of assets The fund has risen about 10 4 in the year to date time frame PowerShares Dynamic Networking Portfolio This fund follows the Dynamic Networking Intellidex Index holding 30 securities in its basket Out of these Cisco is the third firm accounting for a 5 9 share From a sector look communication equipment accounts for 39 of the portfolio followed by 36 in software and programming The fund is unpopular and illiquid in the broad tech space with AUM of 22 8 million and average daily volume of about 3 000 shares It charges 63 bps in annual fees and has gained 13 2 in the year to date time frame PXQ has a Zacks ETF Rank 3 with a High risk outlook Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox Zacks free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis as well as top performing ETFs each week |
XOM | ExxonMobil XOM Sets Foot In Liberia Drills First Well | Oil giant ExxonMobil Corporation NYSE XOM recently announced that it has commenced drilling operations on the Mesurado 1 exploration well offshore Liberia Originally the drilling operations were scheduled for 2014 However the Ebola outbreak compelled the international oil gas exploration and development company to defer its drilling plans Now that the disease has been contained ExxonMobil declared its intention to continue with its drilling plans off Liberia in October this year Per Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited COPL ExxonMobil is employing SeaDrill Limited s NYSE SDRL 2014 built drillship West Saturn to drill the exploration well The well is the first one to be operated by ExxonMobil offshore Liberia and targets oil in Late Cretacous sands Located about 50 miles offshore Liberia on Block LB 13 the well lies in about 2500 meters of water The well will also provide calibration for seismic response which can be used to appraise other leads on the block ExxonMobil farmed into LB 13 in 2013 and acquired 80 stake of COPL Later the shareholding was increased to 83 The remaining 17 is held by COPL s fully owned subsidiary Canadian Overseas Petroleum Bermuda Limited ExxonMobil is the world s best run integrated oil company based on its track record of high return on capital employed ExxonMobil s strength lies in its balanced operations strong financial flexibility continuous efficiency and cost control The company s efforts to build an unconventional resource portfolio both in North America and overseas reflect its aim to increase production through higher exposure to large energy resources with long reserve life and low field declines Despite the collapse in natural gas prices ExxonMobil expects unconventional gas to play a dominant role in future supplies owing to the rapid decline in conventional production The company possesses more than 8 million unconventional acres in North America EXXON MOBIL CRP Price
ExxonMobil currently has a Zacks Rank 3 Hold Some better ranked players in the same sector include SunCoke Energy Inc NYSE SXC and Suncor Energy Inc NYSE SU Both these stocks sport a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy You can see SunCoke Energy posted a positive earnings surprise of 177 78 in the last reported quarter It delivered a positive earnings surprise in three of the four preceding quarters Suncor Energy posted a positive earnings surprise of 300 00 in the preceding quarter It reported an average earnings surprise of 40 55 for the four preceding quarters Confidential from ZacksBeyond this Analyst Blog would you like to see Zacks best recommendations that are not available to the public Our Executive VP Steve Reitmeister knows when key trades are about to be triggered and which of our experts has the hottest hand |
XOM | The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights ExxonMobil BP Transocean Transocean Partners And Suncor Energy | For Immediate Release
Chicago IL November 30 2016 Zacks com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets Stocks recently featured in the blog include ExxonMobil NYSE XOM Corp NYSE BP plc LON BP NYSE Transocean Ltd NYSE RIG NYSE Transocean Partners LLC NYSE and Suncor Energy Inc NYSE
Today Zacks is promoting its Buy stock recommendations
Here are highlights from Tuesday s Analyst Blog
Oil and Gas Stock Roundup XOM BP RIG SU
It was a week where both oil and gas prices ended with gains
On the news front ExxonMobil Corp NYSE started drilling a deepwater exploration well offshore of Liberia while BP plc NYSE has agreed to buy a 10 interest in Egypt s Shorouk concession
Overall it was another good week for the sector West Texas Intermediate WTI crude futures edged up 0 5 to close at 45 93 per barrel while natural gas prices rallied 8 5 to 3 085 per million Btu MMBtu See the last Oil Gas Stock Roundup here
Oil prices inched up marginally as traders adopted a wait and see attitude ahead of OPEC s Vienna meeting on Nov 30 with mixed signals on whether the cartel members will agree to rein in output as part of the plan reached in Sep The commodity was also bolstered by the U S Energy Department s weekly inventory release which showed an unexpected decline in crude stockpiles
However to a large extent the bullish sentiment was offset by data from Baker Hughes showing another rise in the domestic oil rig count and pointing to the resurgence in shale drilling activities
Meanwhile natural gas also turned sharply higher following the season s first withdrawal and forecasts of colder weather that translates into strong demand for the heating fuel
Recap of the Week s Most Important Stories
1 World s largest publicly traded oil company ExxonMobil Corp recently announced that it has commenced drilling operations on the Mesurado 1 exploration well offshore Liberia
Originally the drilling operations were scheduled for 2014 However the Ebola outbreak compelled the international oil gas exploration and development company to defer its drilling plans Now that the disease has been contained ExxonMobil declared its intention to continue with its drilling plans off Liberia in October this year
The well is the first one to be operated by ExxonMobil offshore Liberia and targets oil in Late Cretacous sands Located about 50 miles offshore Liberia on Block LB 13 the well lies in about 2500 meters of water The well will also provide calibration for seismic response which can be used to appraise other leads on the block Read more
2 British energy giant BP plc recently announced its decision to acquire 10 stake from Eni SpA in the Shorouk concession offshore Egypt for a total consideration of 375 million
The Shorouk concession offshore Egypt also contains the super giant Zohr gas field On completion BP will compensate Eni for BP s share of past expenditure Per the agreement BP has an option to buy another 5 interest in the concession under the same terms before the next year ends
Discovered by Eni in Aug 2015 the Zohr field is located in the Mediterranean Sea about 190 kilometers north of Port Said in water depth of about 1 500 meters To date six wells have been drilled successfully It is considered to be the largest gas discovery in the Mediterranean Eni estimates the Zohr field to hold total gas resources of about 30 trillion cubic feet of gas in place The first phase of development of Zohr is being sped up and first gas is anticipated in late 2017 Read more
3 Offshore drilling giant Transocean Ltd NYSE and its partnershipTransocean Partners LLC NYSE jointly announced the increase of shareholding by the former to 1 2 shares from 1 1427 shares the consideration for its pending merger of each common unit of the latter that it does not already own
Transocean made this announcement post the failure to receive 50 1 shareholder votes necessary for the merger to close The company aims to issue around 23 8 million shares for the deal to complete
For the merger to take place approval from the holders of Transocean Partners common units is required Shareholders of Transocean have voted for roughly 21 3 million common units in support of the transaction However a vote in favor of the deal by nearly 9 9 million of 19 7 million common units not held by Transocean is still needed for the deal to close The transaction is expected to close by next month subject to customary closing conditions Read more
4 Canada s largest energy firm Suncor Energy Inc NYSE recently provided the production outlook and capital expenditure guidance for 2017 The company expects capital spending between C 4 8 billion and C 5 2 billion and average production in the range of 680 000 720 000 barrels of oil equivalent per day boed This means that the company expects production to rise by more than 13 next year and spending to fall by more than C 1 billion Suncor Energy currently carries a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy You can see
Of the total capital expenditure the company will use C 4 1 C 4 5 billion for the upstream segment C 625 C 675 million for the downstream segment and the remaining for corporate purposes About 40 of next year s capital spending has been allocated for growth projects mostly in the upstream segment
Regarding production 420 450 thousand barrels per day bbl d are expected to be contributed by the Oil Sands segment About 150 165 thousand bbl d will likely be derived from the Syncrude segment while the remaining will come from the company s exploration and production activities Read more
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XOM | Gold Mines Vs Oil Depletion | The Hill s Group
Gold mines usually don t run out of gold and tin mines usually don t run out of tin but they are often shut down They close their doors and go out of business That is because the quality of the ore remaining fell too low for them to be worked economically
The 2000 WEO World Energy Outlook placed liquid hydrocarbon resources at as much as 4 300 Gb billion barrels The world in the last 158 years has extracted less than 1 700 Gb Running Out is an oxymoron Going out of business isn t
Gold mines tin mines and oil wells are operated to make a profit Investor put up money and expect a return on their investment If they don t get it the business is sold or scrapped out It is that return that determines if an operation is continued or shut in It has absolutely nothing to do with the quantity of resource that remains in the ground
The Bell Weather of the petroleum industry Exxon NYSE XOM has seen its ROA return on assets decline by 65 in the last four years It has fallen from 13 45 to 4 8 The decline for the return on its assets went down right along with the price of oil which fell from 94 05 in 2012 to 48 67 in 2015 If it follows that trend its ROA will hit zero at about 30 During the first 10 months of 2016 the price of WTI crude oil averaged 39 40 At an ROA of zero its investors will see no benefit from their investment except perhaps for the company s scrap value
As we have been saying for the last three years the long term trend for the price of oil is down
The price of petroleum is controlled by two factors
1 The cost of production 2 The amount that the end consumer the NEGs can afford to pay for it
What the end consumer pays must be sufficient to cover the cost of production All production cost must be borne by the end consumer who includes the end buyer and the societal cost required to produce petroleum and its products
The Petroleum Price Curve shown below reflects the two factors that have and will continue to control petroleum prices The ETP derived Cost Curve is constructed from the ETP model and has mapped the price of petroleum since 1960 with a correlation coefficient of 0 965 It is the most accurate pricing model that has ever been developed
The Maximum Consumer Price curve was also developed from the ETP model It represents the maximum price that the end consumer can pay for petroleum It is based on the observation that the price of a unit of petroleum can not exceed the value of the economic activity that the energy it supplies to the end consumer can generate
The quality of the resource measured by its ability to deliver energy has fallen low enough that its ROA is rapidly approaching zero The 158 year history of the commercial industrial oil age has been spearheaded by a quest for the very best that could be found What remained was of lower quality That resulted in lower production wells higher levels of contaminates much higher or much lower viscosity and ever increasing water cut The overall reserve has declined in quality |
XOM | ExxonMobil Hires Mitsubishi Heavy Industries For Beaumont | ExxonMobil Corporation NYSE XOM recently contracted Tokyo based Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd the parent company of Houston based Mitsubishi Heavy Industries America for its new Beaumont expansion The financial details of the deal remained undisclosed ExxonMobil s price chart reveals that it has outpaced the Zacks categorised Zacks Sub Industry Oil Gas International Integrated Market year to date While ExxonMobil has risen by 12 the broader market has increased by 9 2 The impact of the aforesaid announcement on the stock price remains to be seen The contract pertains to the construction of a large scale polyethylene production train in Beaumont Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has been entrusted with the task to construct a large scale polyethylene production train supplying the reaction finishing and shipping equipment for the plant The Japanese firm will also be responsible for utility facilities for water air and steam Early in November ExxonMobil announced its plans to commence construction of a new production unit at its polyethylene plant in Beaumont which is located about 80 miles east of downtown Houston The new unit will be part of a multibillion dollar investment by the company along the Gulf Coast The cost of the project has not been disclosed Soon after ExxonMobil chose San Antonio based Zachry Group as the general contractor for the expansion project The new unit which is scheduled to come online in 2019 will expand capacity by about 65 or about 650 000 tons per year ExxonMobil is also adding two similar polyethylene units at its Mont Belvieu Plastics Plant about 30 miles east of downtown Houston Collectively the projects will augment the company s U S polyethylene production by 40 or about 2 million tons per year It will also make Texas the largest polyethylene supply point for ExxonMobil EXXON MOBIL CRP Price ExxonMobil currently has a Zacks Rank 3 Hold Some better ranked players in the same sector include SunCoke Energy Inc NYSE SXC Suncor Energy Inc NYSE SU and Futurefuel Corp NYSE FF All these stocks sport a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy You can see SunCoke Energy posted a positive earnings surprise of 177 78 in the last reported quarter It reported a positive earnings surprise in three of the four preceding quarters Suncor Energy posted a positive earnings surprise of 300 00 in the preceding quarter It reported an average earnings surprise of 40 55 for the four preceding quarters Futurefuel Corp posted a positive earnings surprise of 20 83 in the last reported quarter It reported a positive earnings surprise in all of the four preceding quarters Confidential from ZacksBeyond this Analyst Blog would you like to see Zacks best recommendations that are not available to the public Our Executive VP Steve Reitmeister knows when key trades are about to be triggered and which of our experts has the hottest hand |
VZ | Friday Uncertain | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Friday uncertain
ES pivot 2094 25 Holding below is bearish
Next week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ not a buy
Recap
The recent mean reversion sort of action we ve been seeing after big gains the past few days asserted itself again on Thursday and trumped my call for a higher close I even mentioned it when I wrote Ordinarily I d say that after such a sudden large one day move we d be due for a pause Too bad I didn t stand by it Oh well one more day to go and this crazy week is done The TechnicalsThe Dow The Dow has alternated up and down in an odd sort of stair step rise that has consistently dragged the indicators higher On that alone there s not much to go by The only thing I see that s cause for concern is the stochastic which has now flattened out in preparation for a bearish crossover I d be cautious here on Friday The VIX The VIX yesterday moved just 0 72 higher on a day the Dow fell triple digits in a sort of bullish divergence unable to break back above its 200 day MA Nevertheless we are now oversold so it s reasonable to assume the next VIX trend will be higher Market index futures Last night all three futures were higher at 12 00 AM EDT with ES up 0 11 On Thursday ES put in a vague approximation of a dark cloud cover along with sending indicators overbought The stochastic is primed for a bearish crossover so despite a small run up in the late evening hours this chart has at least the suggestion of a reversal ES daily pivot Last night the ES daily pivot rose from 2089 58 to 2094 25 That s enough to put ES back below the new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish Dollar index The dollar on Thursday recouped about 2 3 of its losses from Wednesday in a move that sent the indicators off overbought That still leaves us in an official descending RTC though the first downtrend I ve seen here since last October What does this mean for the market Hard to say the dollar has seemingly decoupled from the stock market lately It s also still not clear that the current trend means anything in a larger monthly context Euro The euro by contrast advanced nicely on Thursday to close at 1 0753 but it appeared last night like it was giving it all back suggesting that the action of the last three days was nothing more than a multi day fake out Transportation The trans were completely unchanged Thursday after a long legged doji that coupled with highly overbought indicators and a stochastic just inches away from a bearish crossover all suggest a move lower today Friday
There are some indications of a move lower for Friday but they generally require confirmation But with this being a triple witching day with no doubt all the usual accompanying gyrations my usual policy is to stay away So I m just calling Friday uncertain Single Stock TraderAt least I was correct in staying away from Verizon Communications yesterday NYSE VZ which moved a bit lower Thursday and is now hovering just above its 200 day MA With a spinning top overbought indicators and a stochastic that just formed a bearish crossover I d say there s more downside coming for VZ |
VZ | Monday Higher | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Monday higher
ES pivot 2094 58 Holding above is bullish Now on M contract
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ not a buy
Recap
Well Friday proved to be entertaining enough with a big pop out the gate and then a nice ballistic arc to finish off the day in style And the up down see saw continued making now eight straight days of alternating gains and losses and 12 of the last 13 Anyway now that we ve got the Fed follies and the triple witching worries out of the way for a while perhaps we can get back to some more predictable market action So let s get right to it and figure out where today Monday is headed
The Technicals
The Dow The Dow remains in a bizarre stair step uptrend The indicators still aren t quite yet overbought but based on recent history you d have to go with a move lower on Monday It s been a sure thing for seven in a row The VIX Now here at least we have a slightly more rational chart On Friday the VIX gapped down 7 46 nearly touching its lower BB with the tail of a hammer With oversold indicators there s a good suggestion of a move higher form here but one which requires confirmation on Monday Market index futures Last night all three futures were higher at 12 41 AM EDT with ES up 0 17 On Friday ES had a nice day putting in a bullish engulfing candle but still unable to make any headway past YTD resistance at 2102 Indicators are now overbought but the stochastic has threaded out and thus lost its predictive powers or mojo as we like to say But ES seems intent on scouting out the record territory here so it s a bit premature to call it lower ES daily pivot Last night the ES daily pivot rose again from 2085 67 to 2094 58 ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish We are now running the M contract Dollar index On Friday the dollar continued its recent decline with a big 1 42 decline The daily rising RTC is now clearly down But moving out to the monthly chart we see a big developing inverted hammer with a stochastic that has just formed a bearish crossover I m starting to wonder if maybe the dollar has seen its top right around the 2009 highs Hey monthly RSI is at 100 now There s nowhere to go but down from there Euro Meanwhile it looks like my call for the euro to pull into the Parityville station by the end of the month was derailed as someone threw a switch that sent the euro higher last week We ve now the shortest descending RTC and the daily indicators are not yet overbought so there could still be some more upside left there Transportation The trans were giving out a reversal signal Thursday night with a doji star but that was rejected Friday in a big way with a 0 32 gain to keep the rising RTC intact That leaves the indicators overbought but no bearish signs left just resistance around 9179 And it seems like we ll be headed that way in a day or two
According to the Stock Traders Almanac the Dow is up seven of the last 11 following March triple witching We also remain in an uptrend albeit an on again off again one and the futures were higher in the overnight And the ARCA TLT is looking toppy and copper recently bottomed which implies higher stocks But the VIX looks getting ready to move higher which implies lower stocks What to do Overall I think I m going to have to go with the bull case so with a fair amount of trepidation and going way out on a limb I m calling Monday higher Single Stock TraderVerizon Communications NYSE VZ managed to advance last Friday but until I see its RSI and stochastic scraping the bottom and not bumping against the ceiling I m not getting on board |
VZ | Tuesday Depends On ES Pivot | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday higher only if ES breaks above its pivot else lower
ES pivot 2098 33 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader NYSE VZ looking toppy
Recap Things were looking great for my call for a higher close Monday until the Dow fell off a cliff in the very last minutes of the session to end down 10 points What the heck Oh well it almost worked out Now let s see how that changes the picture for Tuesday The technicals The Dow The Dow s last second dive resulted in a tall inverted hammer that looks quite bearish when combined with indicators turning lower just before reaching overbought and a stochastic on the brink of a bearish crossover The VIX Last night I wrote there s a good suggestion of a move higher from here so at least I got that right as the VIX gained 3 on Monday Indicators have bottomed and the stochastic is primed for a bullish crossover so this one looks higher again on Tuesday Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 1 25 AM EDT with ES up 0 05 ES had its own tall inverted hammer on Monday and is back to overbought but remains in a rising RTC And it does seem to be trying to rally in the overnight so this one is too tough to call right now ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2094 58 to 2098 33 And that was enough to put ES back below the new pivot so this indicator is now bearish Dollar index After a meteoric rise last month the dollar is now putting in an equally spectacular fall gapping down 0 89 on Monday in what now looks like an exponential crash The indicators are finally oversold but the stochastic is not yet ready for a bullish crossover so we might still have some more downside left here But with this waterfall curve it looks like a blow off that is close to completion Euro And the euro had a big day Monday gapping back up to 1 0954 But it is now overbought and the overnight is moving lower again But remaining in a rising RTC we need confirmation before calling this one lower for Tuesday Transportation Big bearish divergence here as the Trans was slaughtered on Monday down nearly two percent for their worst day since January 30th That sent the indicators way off overbought and completed a bearish stochastic crossover And with the lower BB still far away this chart doe not look good for Tuesday
With a close call on Monday and ES close to its pivot I m going to do yet another conditional call if ES stays below its pivot by mid morning Tuesday we close lower but if it breaks above the pivot and stays there by mid morning we close higher Single Stock TraderWith a red hanging man and overbought indicators VZ is looking fairly toppy tonight No way I m buying it here |
VZ | Thursday Lower | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday lower
ES pivot 2065 08 Holding below is bearish
Friday bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ may go lower again
Recap Yow I m sure glad I called Wednesday lower as the Dow tumbled 293 on some bad economic news That leaves the charts at an interesting junction so let s put them on the 5 15 to Glendale and see where they get off The technicals The Dow Even this big fall for the Dow wasn t enough to send the indicators oversold The lower BB would seem to be the next logical destination at 17 719 and I think that s where we re headed The VIX Last night I wrote of the VIX that a bunch of technical mumbo jumbo all adds up to a move higher on Wednesday and wouldn t you know it the VIX popped over 13 on a tall green marubozu that punched right through the 200 day MA completed the bullish stochastic crossover and sent all the indicators rising off oversold With this kind of steam behind it more upside is not out of the question Market index futures Tonight all three futures are slightly lower at 12 22 AM EDT with ES down just 0 02 ES fell right out of its rising RTC Wednesday for a bearish setup and its indicators also fell to nearly oversold levels But we re still not near the lower BB at 2029 18 and in four of the last five big sudden drops ES has had it didn t reverse until it touched the BB I m expecting the same thing here ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot dives from 2089 67 to 2065 08 And even with that we remain well below the new pivot so this indicator continues bearish Dollar Index The dollar continued its sell off on Wednesday down another 0 24 but putting in a hammer and its second green candle in a row That plus oversold indicators and a stochastic about to form a bullish crossover suggest that a reversal is at hand Like I said last night I still think the dollar moves higher by the end of the week Euro And similarly the euro s recent rally appears to be running out of steam in the 1 0986 neighborhood and with overbought indicators and a stochastic about to form a bearish crossover I d look for lower here soon Transportation The Trans was hit even harder than the Dow on Wednesday down just over 2 on a red marubozu that s nearing the 200 day MA at 8642 Indicators have gone oversold but the stochastic is not yet forming up for a bullish crossover so I think we could hit the lower BB which coincidentally is also a support line on Thursday
I d love to be proven wrong since I m always net long but I m just not feeling the love from thee charts tonight so I m just going to have to call Thursday lower again Single Stock TraderI called Verizon Communications Inc NYSE VZ lower last night and it was right back through its 200 day MA with falling indicators and a full blown bearish stochastic running I think the selling is not done here yet |
VZ | Verizon In No Man s Land | Verizon Communications Inc NYSE VZ found a bottom slightly above 23 00 in October 2008 after a long decline which started nine years earlier in October 1999 when the stock was exceeding the 60 mark Now it seems the good times are back for the telecommunications company
In 2013 the price of Verizon s shares managed to climb above 54 which is a recovery of more than 30 dollars in less than five years But prices have been moving sideways ever since trapped in a range between 54 and 45 It looks like neither the bulls nor the bears were able to take control of the situation during the last two years Maybe the could help us predict which of the two armies would eventually prevail In 1930s suggested that market trends move in five wave sequences called impulses As the chart shows Verizon does not have a complete five wave structure yet To be more precise the stock appears to be locked in a fourth wave triangle If this assumption is correct Verizon is likely to stay in no man s land for a while However the bulls should turn out to be the stronger team leading prices to fresh new highs in wave 5 |
VZ | Monday Higher | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Monday higher
ES pivot 2050 42 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias higher technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ due to move higher
Recap Looks like everyone was worn out after a few exciting days last week as the Dow put in a relatively sedate session Friday with a range of only double digits for a change Made for some interesting patterns too And it should be an interesting week coming up as we end the quarter and it being a new month so let s get right to it on this Sunday night The technicals The Dow The Dow spent much of Friday trading in a tiny range propped up by its daily pivot The net result was a bullish piercing line which left the indicators oversold curved the stochastic around in preparation for a bullish crossover and left us near the edge of the descending RTC With another reversal candle last Thursday that bounced off the lower BB this chart looks ready to move higher Monday The VIX Last Thursday I also pointed to a reversal sign in the VIX and that came to be with a 4 62 decline on Friday to complete a bearish evening star The VIX is now nearly overbought having bounced off its upper BB and propped up only by its 200 day MA With indicators much closer to overbought than oversold it looks like it could go lower again on Monday Market index futures Tonight all three futures are higher at 12 16 AM EDT with ES up 0 38 On Friday ES put in a green spinning top harami with oversold indicators and a stochastic about to make q bullish crossover The overnight is now outside the descending RTC for a bullish setup but oddly is also moving lower ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2046 83 to 2050 42 That keeps ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish Dollar index Well the dollar fooled me Last Thursday night I thought it was looking higher on Friday Instead it dropped 0 17 perhaps in a simple mean reversion after Thursday s big gain In any case we remain oversold and have just exited a descending RTC for a bullish setup so I have to once again think the dollar goes higher on Monday Euro Similarly my call for a lower euro didn t work either on Friday but the resulting spinning top at overbought levels hanging right on the edge of the rising RTC makes me think the euro s going lower on Monday That theory is supported by the overnight action headed non trivially lower Transportation On Friday the Trans put in a bullish piercing pattern good for a 0 24 gain that snapped a four day losing streak and formed a new bullish stochastic crossover After bouncing off their 200 day MA last Thursday and with now oversold indicators this chart looks ready to move higher on Monday
Tonight the charts are generally bullish so the clear technical call is for Monday higher Single Stock Trader Last Thursday night I said Verizon Communications Inc NYSE VZ might be nearing a reversal and that s now looking more likely with a green spinning top harami on Friday that left the indicators oversold brought the stochastic down into the region form whence bullish crossovers come and send OBV higher for the first time in a week We just need a bullish RTC exit to sound the all clear In the meantime I d say it s now a buy for the adventurous |
VZ | Tuesday Uncertain | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday uncertain
ES pivot 2068 17 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias higher technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ to continue higher
Recap Yup Monday was one of those days where the technicals asserted themselves in a big way Everything looked bullish last night and pow zoom up we went right out of the gate 264 Dow points just like that Now let s see if Tuesday will be that easy I kinda doubt it The technicals The Dow If you missed the first five minutes of Monday morning you also missed most of the day s gains it was over that fast The resulting tall green marubozu shot out of the descending RTC for a bullish setup and completed a bullish stochastic crossover while sending all the indicators higher though still just barely oversold This all looks continued bullish The VIX Last night I wrote of the VIX it looks like it could go lower again on Monday And indeed it fell another 3 72 to gap right down through its 200 day MA and form a new bearish stochastic crossover The candle though is a hammer but the overall momentum suggests lower to come Market index futures Tonight all three futures are lower at 12 15 AM EDT with ES down 0 14 ES had a great day Monday blasting out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup and neatly completing a bullish stochastic crossover My only worry here is the tendency of ES to retrace after big one day gains and the overnight sag isn t helping matters any ES daily pivot Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2050 42 to 2068 17 We remain above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish though not quite so much as before Dollar index Last night I wrote I have to once again think the dollar goes higher on Monday and it was good thinking because the dollar took an Olympic high jump sized gap up 0 78 in a move that nicely completed its bullish stochastic crossover and provided a bullish trigger on the descending RTC exit The month long downtrend is now officially over Only caveat here is that the pattern is now 2 3 of an evening star So we need to wait for confirmation Tuesday to see if that is confirmed or not Euro And last night I also wrote I think the euro s going lower on Monday And hey presto down it went to close at 1 0834 a level not seen in a whole week With the indicators all falling towards oversold a bearish stochastic is full effect and a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit this chart looks continued lower Transportation Last night I wrote this chart looks ready to move higher on Monday and the Trans on Monday were a virtual carbon copy of the Dow so everything I wrote there applies here too It all looks good
Tonight the overall look of the charts remains bullish but I am concerned that after such a big one day gain the market may want to take a break Tuesday is also the end of the month and the quarter and that could lead to assorted profit taking and or rebalancing Also the last day of March is historically weak So with these two counter currents operating tonight I m afraid I m going to have to settle for officially calling Tuesday uncertain though I personally believe that the bias is lower Single Stock Trader Last night of VZ I wrote it s now a buy for the adventurous And it was an excellent adventure as Verizon Communications Inc NYSE VZ gained 1 15 to pop back up through its 200 day MA and complete a bullish stochastic crossover As indicators are still just barely oversold and OBV continues to rise I d say there s more upside evaluable here on Tuesday |
XOM | Exxon not getting Russia waiver | The company once run by the current Secretary of State will not be issued a waiver for drilling operations in Russia says Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin nor will any other companies XOM 0 45 Now read Argentina s Gas Shortfall Is Exxon s Big Windfall |
XOM | U S will not give Exxon permission to drill in Russia | By Yeganeh Torbati and Ernest Scheyder WASHINGTON SPRING Tx Reuters The United States will not make an exception for American companies including oil major Exxon Mobil Corp NYSE XOM seeking to drill in areas prohibited by U S sanctions on Russia Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Friday The unusually direct statement served to clarify that the United States would maintain a tough stance on sanctions against Moscow In consultation with President Donald J Trump the Treasury Department will not be issuing waivers to U S companies including Exxon authorizing drilling prohibited by current Russian sanctions Mnuchin said in a statement The United States and European Union imposed economic sanctions on Russia over its annexation of the Crimea region in 2014 and its role in the conflict in eastern Ukraine The sanctions forced Exxon the world s largest publicly traded oil producer to wind down drilling in Russia s Arctic in 2014 We understand the statement today by Secretary Mnuchin in consultation with President Trump Exxon spokesman Alan Jeffers said Exxon had asked for and received in 2015 and 2016 waivers to operate a joint venture with Russian oil producer Rosneft in Russia European Union sanctions do not keep European oil companies from operating in Russia a point of annoyance for Exxon The Wall Street Journal reported this week that Exxon had in recent months applied for a Treasury Department waiver to drill with Rosneft Jeffers said Exxon had not applied for waivers from Treasury since Trump took office Any such request would have drawn attention because Exxon s former chief executive Rex Tillerson is now U S secretary of state Under his leadership Exxon lobbied Congress on Russia sanctions and Tillerson opposed sanctions against Russia in 2014 saying they would be ineffective U S lawmakers are investigating possible ties between some Trump campaign aides and Moscow Republicans in Congress as well as U S allies in Europe are anxious about any sign that the Trump administration might ease some of the sanctions imposed on Russia During his confirmation hearing in January Tillerson said he never personally lobbied against sanctions and that he was not aware of Exxon Mobil directly doing so later acknowledging that he spoke to former U S Treasury Secretary Jack Lew regarding gaps between American and European sanctions on Russia Tillerson has pledged to recuse himself until the end of this year from any matter involving Exxon Mobil unless he is authorized to participate He also has until early May to sell his Exxon Mobil stock SANCTIONS CLARITY U S companies frequently file license applications to the Treasury Department asking permission to undertake activities that would otherwise be barred by sanctions The U S government weighs each application based on national security interests the law and other factors The refusal is unlikely to affect Exxon Mobil s bottom line as it has not been able to operate in Russia for several years but it does hinder its growth potential Treasury almost never comments publicly on license applications Mnuchin s statement will likely serve to clarify the U S stance on sanctions against Russia at a time when American allies are looking for clues to U S policy observers said
It s good from a regulatory perspective as it provides clarity to U S companies but it s also great from a foreign policy perspective Edward Fishman a fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank and former State Department official during the Obama administration said of Mnuchin s statement Any uncertainty about the future of sanctions scares our allies and encourages Russia to prolong its aggression in Ukraine |
XOM | Exxon forecast to beat EPS estimates by RBC but investors may look ahead | Exxon Mobil s NYSE XOM dividend increase the company s smallest on a percentage basis in 15 years barely caused a ripple in its stock today but RBC analysts Brad Heffern and Jie Yong expect the company to beat earnings when it reports this Friday RBC sees XOM s upstream division rebounding from a weak Q4 given improved prices and higher sequential production while downstream should be down sequentially on weaker cracks and the absence of one time items all told the firm estimates Q1 EPS of 0 90 0 05 above consensus Investors may well overlook Q1 results in any case focusing on where the company may go next XOM recently bought assets in the Permian Basin where it doubled its acreage and its deal to buy natural gas company InterOil recently closed Now read Exxon Mobil Releases Its XTO Shale Unit To Operate Like A Start Up |
XOM | Judge orders Exxon to pay 20M fine for Texas refinery pollution | A federal judge ruled today that Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM should pay a 19 95M civil penalty for releasing 10M lbs of pollutants into the air from its Baytown Texas refinery during 2005 13 The judge accepted the plaintiffs argument that XOM collected more than 14M in so called economic benefits by delaying actions that would have curbed the emissions and said the evidence showed the company s emissions had put it in violation of the Clean Air Act more than 16K times The Sierra Club and Environment Texas Citizen Lobby filed suit against XOM in 2010 but the district court ruled in the company s favor in 2014 last year the Fifth U S Circuit Court of Appeals vacated the judge s original decision and ordered him to reconsider the case Now read Exxon Mobil Hold Or Fold |
VZ | Tuesday Lower | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday lower
ES pivot 2075 42 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ may be a buy soon
Recap Bah I blew Monday s call badly and what s worse I had a bunch of errands to run all day long and never really got a chance to play Stock Market I hate it when Real Life TM gets in the way of stock trading So I guess it s time for another Reader s Digest Condensed Night Owl
The Technicals
ES daily pivot Last night the ES daily pivot fell again from 2079 92 to 2075 42 We remain below the new pivot so this indicator remains bearish
Hard to say the indicators are all oversold now but we remain in a downtrend and have yet to get a good reversal candle Monday s rally could be just a relief rally and I didn t like the overnight ES action I do think we re close to an end of the week long decline but I m not sure it will be Tuesday So I m going to stick to my guns and call Tuesday lower Single Stock TraderI believe Verizon Communications NYSE VZ is nearing a bottom now but I m not quite ready to get back in just yet |
VZ | Wednesday Higher | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday higher
ES pivot 2053 75 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ may be a buy in the next day or two
Recap
Whoa I m sure glad I called Tuesday lower because Mr Market had a major snit and dumped 333 Dow points in a cascade that ended only because the bell finally rang at 4 PM in Wall St s equivalent of the Mercy Rule And all this because of the strength of the dollar interest rate fears phase of the moon blah blah doesn t matter all we need to do is pay attention to the charts So let s see how this sets us up for Wednesday
The Technicals
The Dow On Tuesday the Dow had its worst day since October 9th with a 1 85 swan dive that plunged right through the lower BB with a giant angry red marubozu taking out two support lines in the process And even at that we re still not yet down to extreme oversold levels There s nothing on this chart to call a reversal right now The VIX Bang zoom The VIX took off like a skyrocket Tuesday with a gap up 10 82 pop to remain firmly in a steep rising RTC Indicators have now hit highly overbought levels but we ve not yet hit the upper BB at 17 13 We have a hanging man but that requires confirmation so I can t call this one lower yet I ll note though that VVIX punched up through its 200 day MA not a good sign Market index futures Last night all three futures were higher at 12 37 AM EDT with ES up 0 31 ES of course was pounded badly on Tuesday breaking key support at 2056 and continuing right on down through its lower BB But that has driven all the indicators quite oversold and the stochastic is finally starting to come around into position for an eventual bullish crossover And there was a hint of a rally in the overnight though we ve already seen that movie twice before in the past week a leg down followed by a small bounce lather rinse repeat But this time we re a lot more oversold than back then so the selling may be nearing the end ES daily pivot Last night the ES daily pivot tanked from 2075 42 to 2053 75 And even after that massive dump we re still below the new pivot so this indicator remains bearish Dollar index The dollar just keeps on its inexorable trend to infinity and beyond with another 1 gap up yesterday We ve now broken all 2009 resistance lines In fact the dollar is now so high I can t even scroll back far enough in eSignal to find the last time it was higher the chart ends in 2007 It does look like it s starting to go exponential though but there s no telling when the blow off top will come Euro And of course the euro took another big hit Tuesday closing this time down to 1 0698 Less that seven cents left to Parityville At its current rate we re still on track to pull into that station by the end of March Look out below Transportation Everything I wrote about the Dow applies here too Big downtrend no reversal in sight
The SPX Hi Lo index at 31 5 is now down to levels from which previous reversals have come And all the charts are looking bearish with the exception of the VIX which is showing a reversal warning and ES which made a non trivial move higher in the overnight I never like to go against the futures and I think the current move lower may be have been overdone It s possible we could get if not an actual bottom then something of a DCB on Wednesday so I m going to go way out on the limb and call today Wednesday higher Single Stock TraderMonday night I wrote of Verizon Communications NYSE VZ I m not quite ready to get back in just yet Good thing too because VZ was down another 72 cents Tuesday in action that traded entirely under the lower BB This is starting to look like early last December so we re not getting back on this bus until we see some sign that it s going our way and that isn t just yet Still I ll be watching this one intraday on Wednesday If it looks to be turning around and the rest of the market is up I may hop on board for the quick swing |
VZ | Thursday Higher | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday higher
ES pivot 2043 33 Holding above is bullish
Friday bias lower technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ is a buy for the adventurous
Recap Things were looking pretty good for my call for a higher close Wednesday until one of those infamous late afternoon sell offs torpedoed the whole deal But the damage was limited to just 28 Dow points The concept wasn t bad big down day followed by a small move the next day that makes it three pairs of these in a row now So where does that leave Thursday Let s check it out
The Technicals
The Dow The Dow tried to recover from Tuesday s triple digit swoon and almost made it but not quite Oh well We re still left with an inverted hammer on highly oversold indicators and a stochastic that s primed and ready for a bullish crossover This chart now looks like it s got more upside potential than downside risk The VIX The VIX sent some mixed messages on Wednesday putting in a 1 08 bullish engulfing candle but also just touching its upper BB That BB is the third rail of the VIX The VIX rarely spends much time moving higher after hitting it That thesis is supported by highly overbought indicators RSI 93 and a stochastic just primed for a bearish crossover The trade was also just outside the rising RTC for a bearish setup All in all I say the VIX is lower Thursday Market index futures Last night all three futures were higher at 12 36 AM EDT with ES up 0 23 on Wednesday ES traded almost entirely below the lower BB with an inverted hammer Indicators moved even lower into extremely oversold territory and the stochastics have just about fallen off the bottom of the chart This just has to be near a reversal in my book ES daily pivot Last night the ES daily pivot fell again from 2053 75 to 2043 33 But that s enough to put ES back above the new pivot so this indicator is back to bullish Dollar index The incredible helium dollar just kept rising on Wednesday with a second gap up candle in a row for another 1 16 gain The dollar is now clearly going exponential so a pullback has to be coming soon But for now it s still up up and away Euro And of course the euro just kept going lower on Wednesday closing this time at 1 0535 It was January 2003 the last time we saw this And of course the Parityville Express is still on track for an on time arrival by the end of the month We re only five cents away now Given recent moves that could be accomplished in a single day Transportation In a bit of bullish divergence Dow Theory wise the trans advanced on a day the Dow declined a bit up 1 12 with a green marubozu that formed a bullish stochastic crossover and exited the descending RTC for a bullish crossover after bouncing off its lower BB This one now looks higher for Thursday
We ve now hit some pretty oversold levels and I m seeing signs of bottoming particularly in the VIX the trans and the futures so I m just going to go ahead and call Thursday higher Single Stock TraderWell Verizon Communications NYSE VZ gained a bit on Wednesday with a green spinning top and a stochastic that just eked out a bullish crossover We dont yet have the descending RTC exit for confirmation but I m blessing this one anyway as a buy I took a small position at 47 91 not the best entry point of the day for sure but I have other things to do than sit in front of a screen staring at VZ all day |
VZ | Wednesday Uncertain | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday uncertain
ES pivot 2072 50 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ possible reversal no trade ahead of the Fed
Recap
With everyone pretty much on Fed watch waiting to see if the word patience puts in an appearance and with me still not feeling so hot this seems like the perfect time to take another sick day I d be calling Wednesday as uncertain anyway
The Technicals
ES daily pivot Last night the ES daily pivot fell again from 2067 58 to 2072 50 We remain above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish keeping in mind that I expect today Wednesday to be news driven
I don t have the hubris to make a call ahead of such a big Fed announcement so it s simply Wednesday uncertain as we wait for the fireworks Single Stock TraderI definitely wouldn t be playing Verizon Communications NYSE VZ ahead of the Fed |
XOM | Exxon SABIC eye petrochemical project on U S Gulf coast | Exxon Mobil XOM 0 2 announces plans to join with Saudi Basic Industries Corp for the potential development of a petrochemical complex on the Texas Gulf coast XOM says the proposed multi billion dollar investment would include an ethane steam cracker capable of producing 1 8M metric tons year of ethylene which would feed a monoethylene glycol unit and two polyethylene units SABIC says the companies are carrying out further studies including technical and commercial estimations before making an investment decision sometime next year |
XOM | Support grows for Australian cross continent pipeline to combat gas shortages | Australia s government may support construction of a 1K mile gas pipeline likely to cost more than A 5B US 3 8B WSJ reports amid growing concern about shortages of liquefied natural gas and blackouts on the country s populous eastern seaboard Two senior ministers expressed support for a transcontinental pipeline as Prime Minister Turnbull met with major LNG exporters including Royal Dutch Shell LON RDSa RDS A RDS B Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM and Santos OTCPK STOSF to discuss ways of getting more LNG into the domestic energy market If approved the pipeline would run from the resource rich northwest of Western Australia state to South Australia state which was hit by a string of storms and blackouts over the summer Origin Energy OTCPK OGFGF operator of one of three major LNG facilities on the Queensland coast and a major energy retailer says it backs the move ETFs EWA IAF AUSE |
XOM | WSJ Exxon seeking to resume work on Russia venture curtailed by sanctions | Exxon Mobil XOM 0 3 has applied to the Treasury Department for a waiver from U S sanctions on Russia in a bid to resume its joint venture with Rosneft OTC RNFTF WSJ reports XOM s exploration deal with Rosneft signed in 2012 granted access to explore in Russia s arctic waters the right to drill with new technology in Siberia and the chance to explore in Russia s portion of the deepwater Black Sea It is not clear whether the waiver request was made before former CEO Rex Tillerson joined the Trump administration as Secretary of State but Tillerson has recused himself from any matters involving XOM for two years and would not be involved with any decision involving XOM during the period |
XOM | Exxon plans to boost shale gas output in Argentina local official says | Exxon Mobil XOM 0 8 plans to ramp up natural gas production from the Vaca Muerta shale play in Argentina s Neuquen province the provincial governor says The governor says he met with senior executives of XOM and its XTO unit in Houston last week during a road show to promote a series of tenders for 56 blocks in the province XOM s Vaca Muerta activities will focus on developing gas driven by an extension of pricing incentives this year through 2021 the governor says adding that the company will have invested 750M at Vaca Muerta by the end of this year |
XOM | Exxon will not say if it is seeking waiver from Russia sanctions | HOUSTON Reuters Exxon Mobil Corp N XOM on Wednesday declined to comment on a media report that it is seeking permission from the U S government to drill in several areas of the Black Sea banned by U S sanctions on Russia The Wall Street Journal reported that Exxon had in recent months applied to the U S Treasury Department for a waiver to drill with Russian oil producer Rosneft MM ROSN Any such request is likely to draw attention because Exxon s former chief executive Rex Tillerson is now U S secretary of state Exxon spokesman Alan Jeffers said the company does not comment on ongoing discussions with regulators But he pointed out that it has in the past been granted permission from Treasury to keep intact Exxon s joint venture with Rosneft despite the sanctions During at least three occasions in 2015 and 2016 Exxon was granted licenses allowing limited administrative actions in Russia according to annual shareholder disclosures The United States and European Union imposed economic sanctions on Russia over its annexation of the Crimea region in 2014 and role in the conflict in eastern Ukraine Texas based Exxon the world s largest publicly traded oil producer wound down drilling in Russia s Arctic in 2014 after those sanctions were imposed Exxon was allowed to finish some drilling projects as the sanctions took effect Exxon and Rosneft in 2012 had unveiled an offshore exploration partnership with plans to invest as much as 500 billion in developing Russia s vast energy reserves in the Arctic and Black seas Any request from Exxon to expand its business in Russia is bound to draw scrutiny from U S lawmakers investigating possible ties between some campaign aides of U S President Donald Trump and Moscow Some Republicans in Congress as well as some European allies are also anxious about any sign that the Trump administration might ease some of the sanctions imposed on Russia
Tillerson was confirmed by the U S Senate as Secretary of State in February and has promised to recuse himself from matters related to Exxon for a year |
XOM | Dutch court orders Shell Exxon criminal probe over quakes | A Dutch court orders prosecutors to open an investigation into whether the Royal Dutch Shell LON RDSa RDS A RDS B and Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM joint venture that oversees production at the Groningen gas field bears any criminal responsibility for earthquakes Several small quakes caused by production at the country s largest gas field have damaged thousands of buildings and structures across the Groningen province and prosecutors previously have declined to act but an appeals court is now directing them to open an investigation The JV which has accepted civil responsibility for damage caused by the quakes and is paying damages of more than 1B 1 1B says it is surprised by the decision Now read Royal Dutch Shell Dividend Is Safe |
XOM | Exxon probe is unconstitutional Republican prosecutors say | By Emily Flitter NEW YORK Reuters A group of 11 Republican state attorneys general are protesting an investigation into whether Exxon Mobil Corp N XOM violated consumer protection laws when selling fossil fuel products according to a court filing Top prosecutors for Alabama Arizona Arkansas Louisiana Michigan Nebraska Oklahoma South Carolina Texas Utah and Wisconsin all of whom are Republicans filed a brief in U S District Court in Manhattan supporting a lawsuit by Exxon to halt a probe by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman and Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey Schneiderman and Healey both Democrats are looking at whether the company violated consumer protection laws by selling fossil fuels while failing to reveal information about the effects of burning them on the global climate In their brief the attorneys general said Healey and Schneiderman were abusing their power and violating Exxon s rights to free speech by using law enforcement authority to resolve a public policy debate over whether carbon emissions cause climate change a debate they claim is not settled The brief cites a May 17 2016 article in the conservative magazine the National Review by Scott Pruitt who at the time was attorney general for Oklahoma and earlier this year was appointed by President Donald Trump to lead the Environmental Protection Agency claiming scientists continue to disagree about the degree and extent of global warming and its connection to the actions of mankind An overwhelming majority of scientists believe that carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels is a major contributor to global climate change triggering sea level rise droughts and more frequent violent storms Pruitt said in a CNBC interview on March 9 that he did not agree carbon dioxide emissions were a primary contributor to climate change The attorneys general have raised important constitutional and legal issues in support of our position that the investigations by New York and Massachusetts are politically based and in bad faith said Exxon spokesman Scott Silvestri adding that the probes were an attempt to silence political opponents who disagree on the appropriate policies to address climate change In 2015 Schneiderman reached a settlement with Peabody Energy after a similar probe of whether the coal company appropriately conveyed its financial risks associated with climate change The company agreed to change language in its public statements as part of the settlement We will continue to pursue our fraud investigation under New York law despite attempts by Exxon and Big Oil s beneficiaries to delay and distract from the serious issues at hand said Schneiderman s spokeswoman Amy Spitalnick
The case is Exxon Mobil Corporation v Healy U S District Court Southern District of New York No 17 cv 02301 |
XOM | Exxon backed by group of Republican AGs in fight over climate probe | A group of 11 Republican attorneys general join forces in court to help stop an investigation into whether Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM misled investors about the effects of fossil fuels on the global climate The AGs filed a brief today in U S District Court in Manhattan supporting a lawsuit by XOM which says the probe by the New York and Massachusetts AGs is an unconstitutional excess of power The two Democrat AGs falsely presume that the scientific debate regarding climate change is settled the group says adding that the state probes are using government power to chill free speech XOM s lawsuit seeks to block subpoenas for millions of pages of documents and executives internal emails that may have discussed climate change Now read Is Exxon Mobil Doomed |
XOM | ExxonMobil To Augment Polyethylene Capacity At Beaumont | ExxonMobil Corporation NYSE XOM recently announced that it has started construction of a new production unit at its polyethylene plant in Beaumont The cost of the project has not been disclosed Beaumont is located about 80 miles east of downtown Houston and this new unit will be part of a multibillion dollar investment by the company along the Gulf Coast Construction of the new unit is underway wherein current polyethylene production capacity is one million tons per year Scheduled to come online in 2019 the new unit will expand capacity by about 65 or about 650 000 tons per year Two similar polyethylene units are also being added by ExxonMobil at its Mont Belvieu Plastics Plant about 30 miles east of downtown Houston Collectively the projects will augment the company s U S polyethylene production by 40 or about 2 million tons per year It will also make Texas the largest polyethylene supply point for ExxonMobil EXXON MOBIL CRP Price
Based on 2015 Impact Data Source estimates the expansion of the Beaumont polyethylene plant is expected to generate 1 400 construction jobs and 40 permanent jobs as well as generate 20 billion in economic activity in the first 13 years of operation Notably this is the third major investment by ExxonMobil in the Beaumont area over the past 18 months Other investments at Beaumont by the company include expansion of the refinery s crude refining capabilities and construction of a new unit to increase domestic supply of ultra low sulfur gasoline and diesel However the magnitude of contribution of the polyethylene business to ExxonMobil s overall financial results is unclear as it is never broken out separately It also was not mentioned in the company s latest earnings conference call ExxonMobil currently has a Zacks Rank 3 Hold Some better ranked players from the same sector are SunCoke Energy Inc NYSE SXC Futurefuel Corp NYSE FF and TransCanada Corporation TO TRP All these stocks sport a Zacks Rank 1 Strong Buy You can see SunCoke Energy posted a positive earnings surprise of 177 78 in the preceding quarter It reported a positive earnings surprise in three of the four preceding quarters Futurefuel Corp posted a positive earnings surprise of 20 83 in the preceding quarter It reported a positive earnings surprise in all of the four preceding quarters TransCanada posted positive earnings surprise of 22 92 in the last reported quarter Zacks Best Private Investment IdeasIn addition to the recommendations that are available to the public on our website how would you like to follow all Zacks private buys and sells in real time Our experts cover all kinds of trades from value to momentum from stocks under 10 to ETF and option moves from stocks that corporate insiders are buying up to companies that are about to report positive earnings surprises You can even look inside exclusive portfolios that are normally closed to new investors Starting today for the next month you can have unrestricted access |
PCG | Why Shares of PG E Soared Higher Today | What happened
Shares of PG E NYSE PCG closed up more than 13 on Monday after the bankrupt utility updated its reorganization plan to try to address the concerns raised by California Gov Gavin Newsom The governor s office is one of the last remaining major parties PG E has yet to win over and the move is a major step forward in the company s attempt to emerge from bankruptcy with its equity retaining some of its value
So what
PG E filed for bankruptcy protection in early 2019 to deal with an estimated 30 billion in liabilities stemming from the 2018 Camp Fire in Northern California In most cases equity holders are wiped out when a company declares bankruptcy but PG E from the beginning built its reorganization plan based on having common shares retain some value upon emergence
That plan came under a number of challenges throughout the year and PG E shares lost more than half of their value in 2019 but the utility has slowly worked through issues raised by creditors and other constituents and has made steady progress toward emerging midyear
But Newsom remains skeptical of the plan voicing concerns related to governance and accountability PG E needs the governor s support to gain access to a state run fund that s designed to manage liabilities for future fires and minimize the risk of falling into bankruptcy again in the future
The shares were up Monday after PG E said it was overhauling its board and adding a chief risk officer and chief safety officer who would both report directly to the CEO The utility will also appoint an independent safety advisor and form an independent safety oversight committee with non PG E employees to review operations
PG E said it believed the changes would address Newsom s concerns
Now what
Obviously it is up to Newsom and not PG E to say whether these changes are enough to satisfy the governor s concerns But Newsom has as much reason to get a deal done as PG E does The governor needs to take a hard line to make sure the state s power grid is safe but he also has to make sure PG E and the state s other utilities are able to function to make sure California citizens are able to keep their lights on
The market is guessing that PG E s olive branch will be enough to move us forward and get a deal done I think that is the correct interpretation and expect PG E to emerge from bankruptcy midyear But given the volatility of the stock and the risks associated with a bankruptcy investors should wait until PG E has emerged before weighing buying shares of this utility |
PCG | California lawmaker introduces bill to make PG E a publicly owned utility | By Kanishka Singh Reuters A California lawmaker has introduced a bill aimed at making PG E Corp N PCG a publicly owned utility a year after liabilities from wildfires traced back to some of its equipment pushed the power producer into bankruptcy Today I m introducing legislation to force PG E to become a publicly owned utility California State Senator Scott Wiener said on Monday adding it was time for a new approach at the utility company PG E has failed It s failed on safety reliability PG E has forfeited its privilege to operate as an investor owned monopoly in California he said in a tweet The company said it opposed the bill from Wiener PG E s facilities are not for sale a company spokesman told Reuters in an emailed statement Changing the structure of the company would not create a safer or cleaner operation Recent takeover attempts have largely failed due to a range of factors the spokesman said The power producer said on Saturday it had submitted an updated reorganization plan including a new board of directors and new roles aimed at addressing concerns raised by California Governor Gavin Newsom Newsom last month rejected an earlier PG E reorganization plan saying it lacked major changes in governance and tougher safety enforcement mechanisms mandated under a recent state wildfire statute The company filed for Chapter 11 protection in January last year citing potential liabilities in excess of 30 billion from deadly wildfires in 2017 and 2018 linked to its equipment
Separately it came under renewed criticism last year for precautionary power outages to guard against the risk of wildfires posed by extremely dry and windy weather |
VZ | Tuesday Higher | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday higher
ES pivot 2104 92 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias lower technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ remains a swing trade buy
Recap
Sunday night I called Monday as uncertain adding My personal bias is that I m not looking to go long the next few days Well with a meager 24 point move in the Dow uncertain seems about right and with the move to the downside not going long seems about right too So let s see if we can get any action going here on Tuesday Chart em up Jack The Technicals The Dow We got a good reversal warning in the form of a red hanging man from the Dow on Monday It also closed just outside its rising RTC for a bearish setup and remains overbought That all makes this chart look lower for Tuesday The VIX Sunday night I said the VIX looked lower and while the candle on Monday was indeed red we ended with a 1 82 gain to close just under the 200 day MA after an attempt to break above The result is a bearish harami but the indicators all remain quite oversold With four red candles in a row though and remaining below the 200 MA I m going to guess there s more downside available here Market index futures Last night all three futures were barely higher at 12 57 AM EST with ES up just two ticks ES put in a narrow doji star on Monday right at the top of Friday s pop Indicators remain quite overbought so this is a good reversal warning but one which requires confirmation ES daily pivot Last night the ES daily pivot rose again from 2099 33 to 2104 92 We remain above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish Dollar The dollar gained 0 34 on Monday but on a red hanging man near the top of Friday s candle The indicators remain confused but there s at least a suggestion of a move lower here on Tuesday Euro And the euro continued its long string of dojis with a lopsided spinning top This all indicates indecision except for the fact that each doji is lower than the one before It s a tiny little beginners slope descent but the trend is nevertheless still lower Transportation On Monday the trans eked out a 0 14 gain with a green spinning top above Friday s big push But with indicators now at extreme overbought levels a bearish RTC exit and the stochastic actually on the decline for four days I d say this one looks lower on Tuesday
Despite some highly overbought conditions and my expectation of a top soon I m starting to feel like a tape fighter here and that s never a good thing So with the VIX moving back under its 200 day MA and ES seeming to show no signs of wanting to move lower I m going to go out on a limb and just call Tuesday higher Single Stock TraderVerizon Communications NYSE VZ lost a bit of ground on Monday but the overall bullish thesis remains intact with two hammers in a row extremely oversold indicators and a stochastic about to form a bullish crossover |
VZ | Wednesday Uncertain | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday uncertain
ES pivot 2110 75 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias lower technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ remains a swing trade buy
Recap
Well what do you know about that Monday night I went out on a limb calling Tuesday higher but sometimes my best calls come from that location as the Dow gained a respectable 92 points on Tuesday Alright then So now we plod on to Wednesday as the bleary month of February winds down
The Technicals
The Dow On Tuesday the Dow convincingly rejected Monday s hanging man that s why you generally need confirmation for these candles no matter how tempting they look to hit yet another record close and remain in a rising RTC even as the upper BB continues to scoot away now at 18 400 So last night there were not any bearish signs The VIX Monday night I wrote I m going to guess there s more downside available here Good guess because the VIX lost another 6 on Tuesday crashing right through its 200 day MA with a tall red marubozu The VIX is now in full on sell off mode in a steep descending RTC with no end in sight and the lower BB still a long way from here at 12 92 So we can t call a reversal just yet Market index futures Last night all three futures were a bit lower at 12 22 AM EST with ES down 0 04 Like the Dow ES on Tuesday rejected Monday s reversal candle by continuing higher There s nothing bearish in the candle but ES has been prone to pausing after one day moves higher lately and I note the indicators are continuing to drift slowly lower while remaining overbought So I m a bit cautious here ES daily pivot Last night the ES daily pivot rose again from 2104 92 to 2110 75 And once again we remain above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish
Dollar Monday night I wrote of the dollar there s at least a suggestion of a move lower here on Tuesday And it wasn t a bad suggestion as the dollar dropped 0 10 on an inverted hammer after a failed attempt to break a three day resistance But there s an interesting pattern going on YTD we re forming a symmetrical triangle and it s very close to completion Having entered from below I d guess the dollar is due for a breakout pretty soon maybe sometime this week Euro On Tuesday the euro surprised me by putting in its first higher high in seven sessions It was a small move though and I ll need to see more than this to declare the current downtrend over Transportation The trans chart on Tuesday looked just like the Dow so my comments there apply here too nothing bearish
The last week of February is historically not so hot My predicament here is that while we remain in an uptrend and I don t see any particularly bearish signs on the daily time frame I still see some toppishness on a slightly longer interval as I mentioned a few days ago I m reluctant to call the market higher on that basis but have no real grounds to call it lower so once again I guess that adds up to Wednesday uncertain Single Stock TraderMonday night I wrote that for Verizon Communications NYSE VZ the overall bullish thesis remains intact And that was that Jack as VZ gained nearly a percent on Tuesday If anything it looks even better now with a bullish engulfing pattern a completed bullish stochastic crossover a bullish trigger on a descending RTC exit RSI still oversold but with a bottom in and a 200 day MA breakout What s not to like I m back in at 49 22 |
VZ | Thursday Depends On ES Pivot | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Thursday higher only if ES remains above its pivot else lower
ES pivot 2111 75 Holding above is bullish
Friday bias lower technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ a hold
Recap As sometimes happens events conspired on Wednesday to put me way behind Accordingly tonight is a Night Owl Lite just conclusions no blab
The Technicals
The Dow Still overbought still in a rising RTC A spinning top might be a reversal but needs confirmation The VIX Rose Wednesday on bearish divergence A tall doji nearly hit the lower BB With oversold indicators this could move higher Thursday Market index futures Last night all three futures were higher at 12 18 AM EST with ES up 0 09 A fat red spinning top Wednesday suggests indecision and possible topping Little clarity from the overnight Indicators continue overbought ES daily pivot Last night the ES daily pivot rose again from 2110 75 to 2111 75 Barely above new pivot so nominally bullish Dollar index Big gap down offers bearish confirmation of a hanging man and inverted hammer Bearish stochastic crossover too looks bearish again Thursday Euro Tuesday s doji confirmed with a green candle Positive follow through in the overnight suggests more upside Thursday Transportation More bearish divergence fell while the Dow rose Near bearish engulfing candle sent the indicators lower Looks bearish
The overall look last night is bearish but ES isn t participating Because of its proximity to the pivot I ll make it a conditional call IF ES remains above its pivot by mid morning Thursday we close higher else lower Single Stock Trader Verizon NYSE VZ little changed 200 day MA should provide support |
VZ | Tuesday Uncertain | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Tuesday uncertain
ES pivot 2110 00 Holding above is bullish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ not a buy
Recap Once again the conditional called worked nicely with ES wandering about the pivot indecisively until the open at which point it busted through and never looked back and we closed higher It doesn t always work but this time it did So after a nod to the NASDAQ for finally recapturing 5000 on Monday after 15 long years let s move on to Tuesday
The Technicals
The Dow The Dow had a monster opening day of March up 156 points on a big green marubozu for another record close that totally quashed the previous negative outlook And with the upper BB now floating at 18 417 there s still good deal of upside available here The VIX On Monday the VIX put in a second lower red marubozu for a 2 25 loss to remain in a descending RTC No bullish turnaround signs here at all and the lower BB is way down to 12 09 It s not out of the question we visit that level before moving higher Market index futures Last night all three futures were lower at 12 10 AM EST with ES down 0 05 On Monday ES convincingly put the kaibosh on what was looking like a bearish pattern to bounce pout of a new descending RTC and form a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level Those are generally good for a day or two of further gains Note though that we are now hard up on week long resistance so I m not too sure that will work this time And the overnight didn t seem too enthusiastic about it ES daily pivot TLast night the ES daily pivot rose from 2104 83 to 2110 00 even But we remain above the new pivot so this indicator continues to be bullish Dollar On Monday the dollar continued higher as it gripped the upper BB like a mountain climber scaling an icy escarpment Three green candles and no signs of reversal from the indicators looks like we re not done going higher Euro Sunday night I wrote More downside is in store here And we went lower And last night was lower again And we re not done yet Transportation The trans had a great day Monday with a bullish engulfing candle that exited their descending RTC fore a bullish setup and bent the stochastic around in anticipation of a bullish crossover Bottom line this one just looks higher from here
The theme lately has been for a pause after big one day moves We don t have any outright bearish signs right now but I m concerned about the shape ES is in Also we re not getting much direction from the indicators which are bumping up against extreme overbought levels nor from the daily candles which have been wandering for four days now So breakout or fake out Hard to say Too hard for me in fact so I m just going to wimp out and call Tuesday uncertain Single Stock TraderSunday night I wasn t too keen on Verizon Communications NYSE VZ and while it did eke out a tiny gain Monday it still faces strong resistance at 49 44 Meanwhile the indicators remain overbought and the stochastic is ominously about to form a bearish crossover Don t buy here |
VZ | Wednesday Lower | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Wednesday lower
ES pivot 2110 00 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ still not a buy
Recap I thought something seemed fishy about this market Monday night so I called Tuesday as uncertain instead of following the trend higher Good thing too because the Dow lost 85 points and was unable to push any higher at all So what does this all mean for Wednesday We go to the charts as always for the answer
The Technicals
The Dow On Tuesday the Dow put in a fat hanging man for a 0 47 loss It has apparently given up on the idea of hitting its upper BB at 18 377 and with indicators still overbought it ain t looking good for the Dow Period The VIX With two black crows I was vaguely guessing that the VIX might hit its lower BB Tuesday Bzzzt Instead it zoomed to ring the gong of its 200 day MA before retreating for a 6 29 gain It s still a bullish RCT exit and indicators are all rising off oversold now so I d have to think the bottom is in
Market index futures Last night all three futures were lower at 12 11 AM EST with ES down 0 07 On Tuesday ES gasping for air gave up nearly all of Monday s attempt to crack the powerful line at 2114 Not this time ain t gonna happen And with all the indicators in a headlong rush off overbought to oversold and the overnight guiding lower this chart just looks lower Wednesday ES daily pivot Last night the ES daily pivot fell from 2110 00 to 2104 92 That puts us below the new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish Dollar index After tickling its upper BB for three straight days the dollar had enough on Tuesday losing 008 on a tall doji star despite what I thought That also curved the stochastic around for a bearish crossover so it looks like we have a decent reversal warning here albeit one that requires confirmation Euro On Tuesday the euro continued grasping at straws as it just blub blub blubbed lower and lower on three consecutive doji stars We re back below 1 1200 and still on track as far as I m concerned for an express trip to Parityville Transportation It was a 0 49 loss for the trans on Tuesday with a red hanging man But oddly enough it was also a bullish trigger on a descending RTC exit and we also got a stochastic curling around very near a bullish crossover So I ll take a wild guess that the trans go higher on Wednesday
Meh I could be wrong and Lord knows I am often enough but things were looking just sufficiently bearish last night for me to nervously declare Wednesday lower Single Stock TraderVerizon Communications NYSE VZ eked out a tiny gain on Tuesday but my topping thesis remains intact as this spinning top teetering on the edge of a rising RTC with overbought indicators demonstrates Still no buy here |
VZ | Monday Lower | The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Monday lower
ES pivot 2079 92 Holding below is bearish
Rest of week bias uncertain technically
Monthly outlook bias higher
Single stock trader VZ may be a buy soon
Recap Last Thursday I made a conditional call for the Dow based on ES s proximity to its pivot That worked very well on Friday with ES noodling about the pivot in the wee hours until breaking decisively below at 8 25 AM as the jobs numbers came out and that was that Mr Market was not amused and down we went The question now becomes after such a quick dump where s the reversal We ll scout the charts for signs The Technicals The Dow On Friday the Dow started shedding points faster than my German Shepherd sheds hairs in the opening minute And then it got worse Mercifully the bell finally rang to put an end to the carnage with a broad based 279 point loss giving up the 18 support like it wasn t even there That tall red marubozu took the indicators oversold though the stochastic has yet to begin forming a bullish crossover and the lower BB is still over 100 points away The VIX I was a bit surprised to see the VIX up only 8 26 on Friday though it admittedly did blast right back up through its 200 day MA to remain in a rising RTC Indicators also rose and are now close to being overbought But not there yet which suggests that the VIX may have enough gas left in the tank to rise further on Monday Market index futures Last night all three futures were lower at 12 40 AM EDT with ES down 0 16 ES took a pounding on Friday to drive its indicators all oversold though the stochastic still hasnt started curving back around for a bullish crossover And until I see that and a bullish reversal candle this chart just looks ugly And the overnight didn t help either ES daily pivot Last night the ES daily pivot fell again from 2098 83 to 2079 92 We remain under the new pivot so this indicator is now plainly bearish Dollar index Holy moly the dollar made a moon shot on Friday up a whopping 1 26 with a gap up green marubozu that traded entirely above its upper BB And it is clearly going exponential now And we all know how that ends Every time So look for a break lower soon Maybe not Monday but sometime this week Euro Jeez did I say the euro was going to parity in the fourth quarter Well judging by its action on Friday down to 1 0849 it s looking more like by the end of this month I m not pulling these numbers out of thin air either I simply intersect the current regression trend channel with the 1 000 line and that s where it s landing now Remember back a few years ago when big rock starts were demanding to be paid in euros rather than dollars You don t hear much about that anymore do you Transportation And finally the trans got hammered just like everything else on Friday with a big red marubozu that sent its indicators oversold We re now near the lower BB so I think we may see a bottoming candle here soon like in a day or two
We let a lot of hot air out of the market last week but I don t think we re quite done just yet basically based on a bevy of bearish charts so I m just going to go ahead and call Monday lower Single Stock TraderLast Thursday night I wrote of Verizon Communications NYSE VZ I don t think the selling s done yet here and hey presto boom down we went 1 29 on a big gap down that closed under its lower BB and sent all the indicators oversold I have to admit that at 48 36 it s starting to look attractive again OTOH I m also mindful of the old saying that you never buy a stock just because it s down So we wait for this falling knife to whizz by We will definitely miss the bottom but we won t get all hacked up |
XOM | Reuters Petronas pitching 1B stake in Malaysian offshore gas project | Malaysia s Petronas is seeking buyers for a 1B stake in a prized upstream local gas project to a dozen or so potential bidders including Royal Dutch Shell LON RDSa RDS A RDS B Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM Thailand s PTT and Japanese companies Reuters reports Petronas is looking for partners who can bring the technology and capabilities to explore develop and efficiently operate the various fields and opportunities in the SK316 offshore gas block according to the report Petronas is said to have begun providing financial and operational data to the companies and expects to receive bids over the next few weeks |
XOM | White House accuses Russia of deflecting blame on Syria attack | By Steve Holland and Andrew Osborn WASHINGTON MOSCOW Reuters The United States accused Russia on Tuesday of trying to shield Syria s leader from blame for a deadly poison gas attack last week as U S Secretary of State Rex Tillerson brought a Western message to Moscow condemning its support for Syrian President Bashar al Assad Senior White House officials briefing reporters on condition of anonymity said Assad s government carried out the April 4 sarin nerve gas attack on civilians in Syria s Idlib province killing 87 people including many children to put pressure on rebels who were making advances in the area Russia has defended Assad a staunch ally against U S allegations that his forces carried out the attack saying there is no such evidence Russia has blamed Syrian rebels Russia is on an island when it comes to its support of Syria or its lack of frankly acknowledgment of what happened The facts are on our side White House spokesman Sean Spicer told reporters But at the same briefing Spicer drew criticism after he sought to underscore the ghastliness of the gas attack by saying You had someone as despicable as Hitler who didn t even sink to using chemical weapons Nazi Germany used gas chambers to kill millions of Jews during the Holocaust Spicer said in a later statement In no way was I trying to lessen the horrendous nature of the Holocaust I was trying to draw a distinction of the tactic of using airplanes to drop chemical weapons on population centers Any attack on innocent people is reprehensible and inexcusable The White House officials said Russia has frequently offered multiple conflicting accounts of Syrian government aggression including the incident in the town of Khan Sheikhoun to create confusion and sow doubt within the international community Russia s allegations fit with a pattern of deflecting blame from the Syrian regime and attempting to undermine the credibility of its opponents one of the White House officials said The United States launched 59 cruise missiles at a Syrian airfield last Thursday to retaliate after the attack The attack has thrust the administration of President Donald Trump which came to power in January calling for warmer ties with Russia into confrontation with Moscow U S intelligence indicates that the chemical agent in the attack was delivered by Syrian Su 22 aircraft that took off from the Shayrat airfield according to a White House report given to reporters In a four page document the White House sought to rebut many of Moscow s claims about the circumstances of the attack The report said the Syrian planes were in the vicinity of Khan Sheikhoun about 20 minutes before the attack began and vacated the area shortly afterward Additionally our information indicates personnel historically associated with Syria s chemical weapons program were at Shayrat airfield in late March making preparations for an upcoming attack in northern Syria and they were present at the airfield on the day of the attack the report said It was part of a U S government effort to increase pressure on Russia to drop its support for Assad who has been fighting a six year old civil war against mostly Sunni Muslim rebels TILLERSON MESSAGE Tillerson carried a message from world powers to Moscow on Tuesday denouncing Russian support for the Syrian leader as the Trump administration took on America s traditional mantle as leader of a unified West Tillerson earlier met foreign ministers from the Group of Seven advanced economies and Middle Eastern allies in Italy They endorsed a joint call for Russia to abandon Assad It is clear to us the reign of the Assad family is coming to an end Tillerson told reporters in Italy before departing for Moscow We hope that the Russian government concludes that they have aligned themselves with an unreliable partner in Bashar Al Assad He said Russia had failed in its role as sponsor of a 2013 deal under which Assad promised to give up his chemical weapons arsenal Russia says the chemicals that killed civilians last week belonged to rebels not to Assad s government and has accused the United States of an illegal act of aggression against Syria on a false pretext Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday he believed Washington planned to launch more missile strikes and that rebels were planning to stage chemical weapons attacks to provoke them We have information that a similar provocation is being prepared in other parts of Syria including in the southern Damascus suburbs where they are planning to again plant some substance and accuse the Syrian authorities of using chemical weapons Putin said A senior Trump administration official called Putin s remarks part of a Russian disinformation campaign Putin said Moscow would urgently ask the United Nations chemical weapons watchdog to investigate last week s incident Western countries have dismissed Russian suggestions that the poison gas belonged to rebels as beyond credibility The United States Britain and France have proposed a revised draft resolution to the 15 member U N Security Council that is similar to a text they circulated last week pushing Syria s government to cooperate with investigators TURNING POINT The U S secretary of state s role as messenger for a united G7 position is a turning point for Trump who in the past alarmed allies by voicing skepticism about the value of U S support for traditional friends while calling for closer ties with Moscow Tillerson is a former boss of oil company Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM which has gigantic projects in Russia He was awarded Russia s Order of Friendship by Putin in 2013 He is due to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on Wednesday The Kremlin has said Tillerson has no meeting scheduled with Putin this trip although some Russian media have reported such a meeting may take place On Monday Trump reached out to traditional NATO allies discussing Syria by telephone with British Prime Minister Theresa May and German Chancellor Angela Merkel I think we have to show a united position and that in these negotiations we should do all we can to get Russia out of Assad s corner German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel said Britain floated the idea of tightening sanctions on Russia initially imposed in 2014 over its annexation of territory from Ukraine although no such step was agreed at the G7 meeting France said it was not discussed in depth Western countries have been calling for Assad to leave power since 2011 the start of a civil war that has killed at least 400 000 people and created the world s worst refugee crisis Assad s position on the battlefield became far stronger after Russia joined the war to support him in 2015 The United States and its allies are conducting air strikes in Syria against Islamic State but until last week Washington had avoided targeting forces of Assad s government directly U S Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said on Tuesday that the United States military policy in Syria had not changed and remains focused on defeating Islamic State militants |
XOM | U S Secretary of State Tillerson made 27 4 million last year at Exxon company | By Ernest Scheyder HOUSTON Reuters U S Secretary of State Rex Tillerson received compensation worth 27 4 million last year when he was chief executive of Exxon Mobil Corp NYSE XOM the world s largest publicly traded oil producer regulatory filings showed on Thursday He and other senior executives got raises even though Exxon s net income fell more than 50 percent in 2016 as the company like many of its peers tried to cut costs and weather a period of low oil prices The value of Tillerson s compensation package last year rose about 0 5 percent largely due to a 4 percent boost in his salary to 3 2 million and an 8 percent jump in the value of stock awards to 19 7 million an Exxon filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission showed The value of perquisites Tillerson received from Exxon last year including personal security and a life insurance policy rose 7 percent to 575 850 Tillerson 65 was nominated by then President elect Donald Trump to be secretary of state in December Tillerson retired from Exxon at the end of the year He was confirmed by the U S Senate in early February His current post carries an annual salary of 207 800 according to the federal Office of Personnel Management tables As part of an ethics agreement when Tillerson assumed his government post Tillerson forfeited unvested Exxon stock worth 2 8 million and potential for a bonus of 3 9 million He also waived his right to retiree health benefits Tillerson s vested Exxon stock was put into a trust worth about 180 million at the time the proceeds of which will be paid out over the next decade much in the same way proceeds are paid out to all Exxon retirees The trust is prohibited from investing in Exxon Tillerson will not be allowed to work anywhere in the oil and gas industry for the next decade If he does the entire trust s value would be donated to a charity that neither he nor Exxon chooses according to the regulatory filings Darren Woods Exxon s CEO as of January saw his compensation rise 64 percent last year when he was Exxon s president to 16 8 million Woods saw his base salary rise 36 percent to 1 million and the value of stock and stock option awards his pension and company perquisites including the cost of a home security system rise as well |
XOM | Paris climate agreement in focus | Top White House advisers will meet today over whether to recommend President Trump withdraw the United States from the Paris climate accord Ivanka Trump and her husband Jared Kushner have urged the President to stay in the deal along with SecState Tillerson Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM Shell LON RDSa RDS A RDS B BP and Cheniere Energy NYSEMKT LNG have also endorsed the pact ETFs XLE VDE ERX OIH XOP FCG ERY GASL DIG PBW DUG BGR XES IYE IEO FENY IEZ GEX QCLN PXE ICLN GASX PXI FIF PXJ RYE PBD NDP GUSH PSCE PZD DRIP DDG FXN PUW CRAK HECO SOP UOP NANR ERGF ERYY FTXN JHME XE |
XOM | Dutch to cut Groningen gas production to lower earthquake risk | The Netherlands will cut production of its Groningen gas field by 10 beginning in October to limit the risk of earthquakes the country s economy minister says Production would be reduced to 21 6B cm year from 24B cm year as a first step according to the minister output has been cut several times from 53 9B cm in 2013 as criticism mounted the Dutch government had failed to adequately assess the risk from earthquakes caused by production at Europe s biggest field Groningen is operated by a joint venture between Royal Dutch Shell LON RDSa RDS A RDS B and Exxon Mobil NYSE XOM |
XOM | PetroChina PTR Q3 Earnings Battered By Crude Plunge | Chinese energy giant PetroChina Co Ltd NYSE PTR announced third quarter 2016 earnings of RMB 1 2 billion or RMB 0 01 per diluted share compared with RMB 5 2 billion or RMB 0 03 per diluted share a year earlier
Earnings per ADR came in at 15 cents failing to beat the Zacks Consensus estimate of 29 cents Moreover China s dominant oil and gas producer s total revenue for the three months under consideration fell 4 from the comparable 2015 period to RMB 411 4 billion
The negative comparisons can be primarily attributable to continued collapse in oil prices which pummeled its biggest unit exploration and production to a loss
PetroChina followed another big energy name from the country CNOOC Ltd NYSE CEO in reporting dismal results However the third state backed oil and gas firm China Petroleum Chemical Corp NYSE SNP saw its profits soar on refining gains PETROCHINA ADR Price Consensus and EPS Surprise
Nine Month Segment Performance
Upstream PetroChina one of the world s largest oil company by market value and half the size of ExxonMobil Corp NYSE XOM posted stable upstream output during the nine months ended Sep 30 2016 While crude oil output accounting for 65 of the total fell 3 6 from the year ago period to 696 6 million barrels MMBbl marketable natural gas output was up 6 1 to 2 428 9 billion cubic feet Bcf As a result PetroChina s total production of oil and natural gas remained essentially flat year over year at 1 101 5 million barrels of oil equivalent
But average realized crude oil price during the first nine months of 2016 was 35 79 per barrel representing a 30 decrease from the year ago period To make things worse natural gas price fell 27 year over year to 4 67 per thousand cubic feet Mcf This affected the upstream or exploration production segment results which swung to an operating loss of RMB 3 9 billion compared to an operating profit of RMB 46 5 billion in the first three quarters of 2015
Downstream The Beijing based company s Refining Chemicals business generated an operating income of RMB 34 3 billion This is a significant increase from the year earlier period earnings of RMB 3 1 billion The improvement in the downstream division was due to cost control initiatives higher share of high valued added chemical products and operational flexibility to adjust to market conditions
PetroChina s refinery division processed 707 9 MMBbl of crude oil during the nine month period down 4 6 from 2015 The company produced 6 781 million tons of synthetic resin in the period a rise of 15 year over year besides manufacturing 4 147 million tons of ethylene up 15 4 It also produced 63 669 million tons of gasoline diesel and kerosene during the period against 68 802 million tons a year earlier
Natural Gas Pipelines Revenue fell 15 to RMB 174 7 billion on a sharp drop in natural gas prices which was partly offset by improved pipeline transportation profitability To combat the pricing woes the Chinese behemoth enforced strict control in natural gas import costs improved operating efficiency and adjusted its marketing strategy
However PetroChina lost money to the tune of RMB 10 6 million on the sales of imported natural gas and liquefied natural gas LNG from Central Asia and Burma This pulled down the Zacks Rank 3 Hold group s natural gas business income to RMB 17 9 billion in the first three quarters a 29 7 decline from the year earlier profit of RMB 25 4 billion You can see
Marketing In marketing operations the group sold 118 727 million tons of gasoline diesel and kerosene during Jan Sep 2016 reflecting a marginal 0 5 year over year decrease Lower volumes were accompanied by a decrease in product prices due to which sales for the division were down 12 to RMB 929 1 billion
However PetroChina was able to counter the adverse factors slow domestic refined products demand growth and fierce competition by exploiting numerous marketing channels optimizing the sales structure and utilizing international trade practices to its benefit This meant that the segment swung to a profit of RMB 6 8 billion as compared to an operating loss of RMB 978 million incurred in the same period last year
Liquidity Capital Expenditure
As of Sep 30 2016 PetroChina s cash balance was RMB 120 8 billion while net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 190 9 billion for the first three quarters of this year Capital expenditure for the period reached RMB 114 1 billion down 23 from the year ago level of RMB 147 9 billion
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PCG | PG E upgraded at Mizuho as Kincade Fire costs look manageable | PG E PCG 5 9 appears headed for a fourth straight gain as Mizuho upgrades shares to Buy from Neutral with a 22 price target reflecting an increased likelihood that the utility will emerge from bankruptcy by the end of June
If PG E does exit by June 30 any future wildfire costs should be partly covered by the 21B state wildfire fund created by California state law AB 1054 passed last year
One reason for Mizuho s optimism is that the damages from last October s Kincade Fire are shaping up as a relatively mild 700M after insurance a sum that likely would not derail the company s deals to settle the costs of 2017 18 wildfires
For those fires PG E agreed to pay 11B to cover insured damages 13 5B to cover uninsured damages and 1B to compensate state and local governments for fire costs
PCG s average Sell Side Rating Seeking Alpha Authors Rating and Quant Rating are all Neutral |
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