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import streamlit as st
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import gspread
st.set_page_config(layout="wide")
@st.cache_resource
def init_conn():
scope = ['https://www.googleapis.com/auth/spreadsheets',
"https://www.googleapis.com/auth/drive"]
credentials = {
"type": "service_account",
"project_id": "sheets-api-connect-378620",
"private_key_id": "1005124050c80d085e2c5b344345715978dd9cc9",
"private_key": "-----BEGIN PRIVATE KEY-----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\nJuElxA33rFEjbgbzdyrE768=\n-----END PRIVATE KEY-----\n",
"client_email": "gspread-connection@sheets-api-connect-378620.iam.gserviceaccount.com",
"client_id": "106625872877651920064",
"auth_uri": "https://accounts.google.com/o/oauth2/auth",
"token_uri": "https://oauth2.googleapis.com/token",
"auth_provider_x509_cert_url": "https://www.googleapis.com/oauth2/v1/certs",
"client_x509_cert_url": "https://www.googleapis.com/robot/v1/metadata/x509/gspread-connection%40sheets-api-connect-378620.iam.gserviceaccount.com"
}
gc = gspread.service_account_from_dict(credentials)
return gc
gspreadcon = init_conn()
game_format = {'Win%': '{:.2%}', 'Vegas': '{:.2%}', 'Win% Diff': '{:.2%}'}
american_format = {'First Inning Lead Percentage': '{:.2%}', 'Fifth Inning Lead Percentage': '{:.2%}'}
master_hold = 'https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I_1Ve3F4tftgfLQQoRKOJ351XfEG48s36OxXUKxmgS8/edit#gid=694077504'
@st.cache_resource(ttl=299)
def init_baselines():
sh = gspreadcon.open_by_url(master_hold)
worksheet = sh.worksheet('Game_Betting')
raw_display = pd.DataFrame(worksheet.get_all_records())
raw_display.replace('#DIV/0!', np.nan, inplace=True)
game_model = raw_display.dropna()
worksheet = sh.worksheet('Prop_Table')
raw_display = pd.DataFrame(worksheet.get_all_records())
raw_display.replace('', np.nan, inplace=True)
overall_stats = raw_display.dropna()
worksheet = sh.worksheet('DK_ROO')
timestamp = worksheet.acell('U2').value
worksheet = sh.worksheet('prop_frame')
raw_display = pd.DataFrame(worksheet.get_all_records())
raw_display.replace('', np.nan, inplace=True)
raw_display.replace('#DIV/0!', np.nan, inplace=True)
prop_frame = raw_display.dropna()
return game_model, overall_stats, timestamp, prop_frame
game_model, overall_stats, timestamp, prop_frame = init_baselines()
qb_stats = overall_stats.loc[overall_stats['Position'] == 'QB']
non_qb_stats = overall_stats.loc[overall_stats['Position'] != 'QB']
team_dict = dict(zip(prop_frame['Player'], prop_frame['Team']))
t_stamp = f"Last Update: " + str(timestamp) + f" CST"
all_sim_vars = ['All Props', 'pass_yards', 'rush_yards', 'rec_yards', 'receptions', 'rush_attempts',
'pass_attempts', 'pass_completions']
sim_all_hold = pd.DataFrame(columns=['Player', 'Team', 'Prop type', 'Prop', 'Mean_Outcome', 'Imp Over', 'Over%', 'Imp Under', 'Under%', 'Bet?', 'Edge'])
tab1, tab2, tab3, tab4, tab5 = st.tabs(["Game Betting Model", "QB Projections", "RB/WR/TE Projections", "Player Prop Simulations", "Stat Specific Simulations"])
def convert_df_to_csv(df):
return df.to_csv().encode('utf-8')
with tab1:
st.info(t_stamp)
if st.button("Reset Data", key='reset1'):
st.cache_data.clear()
game_model, overall_stats, timestamp, prop_frame = init_baselines()
qb_stats = overall_stats.loc[overall_stats['Position'] == 'QB']
non_qb_stats = overall_stats.loc[overall_stats['Position'] != 'QB']
team_dict = dict(zip(prop_frame['Player'], prop_frame['Team']))
t_stamp = f"Last Update: " + str(timestamp) + f" CST"
line_var1 = st.radio('How would you like to display odds?', options = ['Percentage', 'American'], key='line_var1')
team_frame = game_model
if line_var1 == 'Percentage':
team_frame = team_frame[['team', 'Opp', 'Win%', 'Vegas', 'Win% Diff', 'PD Spread', 'Vegas Spread', 'Spread Diff']]
team_frame = team_frame.set_index('team')
st.dataframe(team_frame.style.background_gradient(axis=0).background_gradient(cmap='RdYlGn').format(game_format, precision=2), use_container_width = True)
if line_var1 == 'American':
team_frame = team_frame[['team', 'Opp', 'Win Line', 'Vegas Line', 'Line Diff', 'PD Spread', 'Vegas Spread', 'Spread Diff']]
team_frame = team_frame.set_index('team')
st.dataframe(team_frame.style.background_gradient(axis=0).background_gradient(cmap='RdYlGn').format(precision=2), use_container_width = True)
st.download_button(
label="Export Team Model",
data=convert_df_to_csv(team_frame),
file_name='NFL_team_betting_export.csv',
mime='text/csv',
key='team_export',
)
with tab2:
st.info(t_stamp)
if st.button("Reset Data", key='reset2'):
st.cache_data.clear()
game_model, overall_stats, timestamp, prop_frame = init_baselines()
qb_stats = overall_stats.loc[overall_stats['Position'] == 'QB']
non_qb_stats = overall_stats.loc[overall_stats['Position'] != 'QB']
team_dict = dict(zip(prop_frame['Player'], prop_frame['Team']))
t_stamp = f"Last Update: " + str(timestamp) + f" CST"
split_var1 = st.radio("Would you like to view all teams or specific ones?", ('All', 'Specific Teams'), key='split_var1')
if split_var1 == 'Specific Teams':
team_var1 = st.multiselect('Which teams would you like to include in the tables?', options = qb_stats['Team'].unique(), key='team_var1')
elif split_var1 == 'All':
team_var1 = qb_stats.Team.values.tolist()
qb_stats = qb_stats[qb_stats['Team'].isin(team_var1)]
qb_stats_disp = qb_stats.set_index('Player')
qb_stats_disp = qb_stats_disp.sort_values(by='PPR', ascending=False)
st.dataframe(qb_stats_disp.style.background_gradient(axis=0).background_gradient(cmap='RdYlGn').format(precision=2), use_container_width = True)
st.download_button(
label="Export Prop Model",
data=convert_df_to_csv(qb_stats_disp),
file_name='NFL_qb_stats_export.csv',
mime='text/csv',
key='pitcher_prop_export',
)
with tab3:
st.info(t_stamp)
if st.button("Reset Data", key='reset3'):
st.cache_data.clear()
game_model, overall_stats, timestamp, prop_frame = init_baselines()
qb_stats = overall_stats.loc[overall_stats['Position'] == 'QB']
non_qb_stats = overall_stats.loc[overall_stats['Position'] != 'QB']
team_dict = dict(zip(prop_frame['Player'], prop_frame['Team']))
t_stamp = f"Last Update: " + str(timestamp) + f" CST"
split_var2 = st.radio("Would you like to view all teams or specific ones?", ('All', 'Specific Teams'), key='split_var2')
if split_var2 == 'Specific Teams':
team_var2 = st.multiselect('Which teams would you like to include in the tables?', options = non_qb_stats['Team'].unique(), key='team_var2')
elif split_var2 == 'All':
team_var2 = non_qb_stats.Team.values.tolist()
non_qb_stats = non_qb_stats[non_qb_stats['Team'].isin(team_var2)]
non_qb_stats_disp = non_qb_stats.set_index('Player')
non_qb_stats_disp = non_qb_stats_disp.sort_values(by='PPR', ascending=False)
st.dataframe(non_qb_stats_disp.style.background_gradient(axis=0).background_gradient(cmap='RdYlGn').format(precision=2), use_container_width = True)
st.download_button(
label="Export Prop Model",
data=convert_df_to_csv(non_qb_stats_disp),
file_name='NFL_nonqb_stats_export.csv',
mime='text/csv',
key='hitter_prop_export',
)
with tab4:
st.info(t_stamp)
if st.button("Reset Data", key='reset4'):
st.cache_data.clear()
game_model, overall_stats, timestamp, prop_frame = init_baselines()
qb_stats = overall_stats.loc[overall_stats['Position'] == 'QB']
non_qb_stats = overall_stats.loc[overall_stats['Position'] != 'QB']
team_dict = dict(zip(prop_frame['Player'], prop_frame['Team']))
t_stamp = f"Last Update: " + str(timestamp) + f" CST"
col1, col2 = st.columns([1, 5])
with col2:
df_hold_container = st.empty()
info_hold_container = st.empty()
plot_hold_container = st.empty()
with col1:
player_check = st.selectbox('Select player to simulate props', options = overall_stats['Player'].unique())
prop_type_var = st.selectbox('Select type of prop to simulate', options = ['Pass Yards', 'Pass TDs', 'Rush Yards', 'Rush TDs', 'Receptions', 'Rec Yards', 'Rec TDs', 'Fantasy', 'FD Fantasy', 'PrizePicks'])
ou_var = st.selectbox('Select wether it is an over or under', options = ['Over', 'Under'])
if prop_type_var == 'Pass Yards':
prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 100.0, max_value = 400.5, value = 250.5, step = .5)
elif prop_type_var == 'Pass TDs':
prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 0.0, max_value = 5.5, value = 1.5, step = .5)
elif prop_type_var == 'Rush Yards':
prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 0.0, max_value = 155.5, value = 25.5, step = .5)
elif prop_type_var == 'Rush TDs':
prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 0.0, max_value = 5.5, value = 1.5, step = .5)
elif prop_type_var == 'Receptions':
prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 0.0, max_value = 15.5, value = 5.5, step = .5)
elif prop_type_var == 'Rec Yards':
prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 0.0, max_value = 155.5, value = 25.5, step = .5)
elif prop_type_var == 'Rec TDs':
prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 0.0, max_value = 5.5, value = 1.5, step = .5)
elif prop_type_var == 'Fantasy':
prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 0.0, max_value = 50.5, value = 10.5, step = .5)
elif prop_type_var == 'FD Fantasy':
prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 0.0, max_value = 50.5, value = 10.5, step = .5)
elif prop_type_var == 'PrizePicks':
prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 0.0, max_value = 50.5, value = 10.5, step = .5)
line_var = st.number_input('Type in the line on the prop (i.e. -120)', min_value = -1000, max_value = 1000, value = -150, step = 1)
line_var = line_var + 1
if st.button('Simulate Prop'):
with col2:
with df_hold_container.container():
df = overall_stats
total_sims = 5000
df.replace("", 0, inplace=True)
player_var = df.loc[df['Player'] == player_check]
player_var = player_var.reset_index()
if prop_type_var == 'Pass Yards':
df['Median'] = df['pass_yards']
elif prop_type_var == 'Pass TDs':
df['Median'] = df['pass_tds']
elif prop_type_var == 'Rush Yards':
df['Median'] = df['rush_yards']
elif prop_type_var == 'Rush TDs':
df['Median'] = df['rush_tds']
elif prop_type_var == 'Receptions':
df['Median'] = df['rec']
elif prop_type_var == 'Rec Yards':
df['Median'] = df['rec_yards']
elif prop_type_var == 'Rec TDs':
df['Median'] = df['rec_tds']
elif prop_type_var == 'Fantasy':
df['Median'] = df['PPR']
elif prop_type_var == 'FD Fantasy':
df['Median'] = df['Half_PPF']
elif prop_type_var == 'PrizePicks':
df['Median'] = df['Half_PPF']
flex_file = df
flex_file['Floor'] = flex_file['Median'] * .20
flex_file['Ceiling'] = flex_file['Median'] + (flex_file['Median'] * .80)
flex_file['STD'] = flex_file['Median'] / 4
flex_file = flex_file[['Player', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD']]
hold_file = flex_file
overall_file = flex_file
salary_file = flex_file
overall_players = overall_file[['Player']]
for x in range(0,total_sims):
overall_file[x] = np.random.normal(overall_file['Median'],overall_file['STD'])
overall_file=overall_file.drop(['Player', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD'], axis=1)
overall_file.astype('int').dtypes
players_only = hold_file[['Player']]
player_outcomes = pd.merge(players_only, overall_file, left_index=True, right_index=True)
players_only['Mean_Outcome'] = overall_file.mean(axis=1)
players_only['10%'] = overall_file.quantile(0.1, axis=1)
players_only['90%'] = overall_file.quantile(0.9, axis=1)
if ou_var == 'Over':
players_only['beat_prop'] = overall_file[overall_file > prop_var].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims)
elif ou_var == 'Under':
players_only['beat_prop'] = (overall_file[overall_file < prop_var].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims))
players_only['implied_odds'] = np.where(line_var <= 0, (-(line_var)/((-(line_var))+100)), 100/(line_var+100))
players_only['Player'] = hold_file[['Player']]
final_outcomes = players_only[['Player', '10%', 'Mean_Outcome', '90%', 'implied_odds', 'beat_prop']]
final_outcomes['Bet?'] = np.where(final_outcomes['beat_prop'] - final_outcomes['implied_odds'] >= .10, "Bet", "No Bet")
final_outcomes = final_outcomes.loc[final_outcomes['Player'] == player_check]
player_outcomes = player_outcomes.loc[player_outcomes['Player'] == player_check]
player_outcomes = player_outcomes.drop(columns=['Player']).transpose()
player_outcomes = player_outcomes.reset_index()
player_outcomes.columns = ['Instance', 'Outcome']
x1 = player_outcomes.Outcome.to_numpy()
print(x1)
hist_data = [x1]
group_labels = ['player outcomes']
fig = px.histogram(
player_outcomes, x='Outcome')
fig.add_vline(x=prop_var, line_dash="dash", line_color="green")
with df_hold_container:
df_hold_container = st.empty()
format_dict = {'10%': '{:.2f}', 'Mean_Outcome': '{:.2f}','90%': '{:.2f}', 'beat_prop': '{:.2%}','implied_odds': '{:.2%}'}
st.dataframe(final_outcomes.style.format(format_dict), use_container_width = True)
with info_hold_container:
st.info('The Y-axis is the percent of times in simulations that the player reaches certain thresholds, while the X-axis is the threshold to be met. The Green dotted line is the prop you entered. You can hover over any spot and see the percent to reach that mark.')
with plot_hold_container:
st.dataframe(player_outcomes, use_container_width = True)
plot_hold_container = st.empty()
st.plotly_chart(fig, use_container_width=True)
with tab5:
st.info(t_stamp)
st.info('The Over and Under percentages are a compositve percentage based on simulations, historical performance, and implied probabilities, and may be different than you would expect based purely on the median projection. Likewise, the Edge of a bet is not the only indicator of if you should make the bet or not as the suggestion is using a base acceptable threshold to determine how much edge you should have for each stat category.')
if st.button("Reset Data/Load Data", key='reset5'):
st.cache_data.clear()
game_model, overall_stats, timestamp, prop_frame = init_baselines()
qb_stats = overall_stats.loc[overall_stats['Position'] == 'QB']
non_qb_stats = overall_stats.loc[overall_stats['Position'] != 'QB']
team_dict = dict(zip(prop_frame['Player'], prop_frame['Team']))
t_stamp = f"Last Update: " + str(timestamp) + f" CST"
col1, col2 = st.columns([1, 5])
with col2:
df_hold_container = st.empty()
info_hold_container = st.empty()
plot_hold_container = st.empty()
export_container = st.empty()
with col1:
prop_type_var = st.selectbox('Select prop category', options = ['All Props', 'pass_yards', 'rush_yards', 'rec_yards', 'receptions', 'rush_attempts',
'pass_attempts', 'pass_completions'])
if st.button('Simulate Prop Category'):
with col2:
with df_hold_container.container():
if prop_type_var == 'All Props':
for prop in all_sim_vars:
prop_df = prop_frame[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == prop]
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
st.table(prop_df)
prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
df = pd.merge(overall_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
prop_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Prop))
over_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Over))
under_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Under))
total_sims = 5000
df.replace("", 0, inplace=True)
if prop_type_var == "pass_yards":
df['Median'] = df['pass_yards']
elif prop_type_var == "rush_yards":
df['Median'] = df['rush_yards']
elif prop_type_var == "rec_yards":
df['Median'] = df['rec_yards']
elif prop_type_var == "receptions":
df['Median'] = df['receptions']
flex_file = df
flex_file['Floor'] = flex_file['Median'] * .20
flex_file['Ceiling'] = flex_file['Median'] + (flex_file['Median'] * .80)
flex_file['STD'] = flex_file['Median'] / 4
flex_file['Prop'] = flex_file['Player'].map(prop_dict)
flex_file = flex_file[['Player', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD']]
hold_file = flex_file
overall_file = flex_file
prop_file = flex_file
overall_players = overall_file[['Player']]
for x in range(0,total_sims):
prop_file[x] = prop_file['Prop']
prop_file = prop_file.drop(['Player', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD'], axis=1)
for x in range(0,total_sims):
overall_file[x] = np.random.normal(overall_file['Median'],overall_file['STD'])
overall_file=overall_file.drop(['Player', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD'], axis=1)
players_only = hold_file[['Player']]
player_outcomes = pd.merge(players_only, overall_file, left_index=True, right_index=True)
prop_check = (overall_file - prop_file)
players_only['Mean_Outcome'] = overall_file.mean(axis=1)
players_only['10%'] = overall_file.quantile(0.1, axis=1)
players_only['90%'] = overall_file.quantile(0.9, axis=1)
players_only['Over'] = prop_check[prop_check > 0].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims)
players_only['Imp Over'] = players_only['Player'].map(over_dict)
players_only['Over%'] = players_only[["Over", "Imp Over"]].mean(axis=1)
players_only['Under'] = prop_check[prop_check < 0].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims)
players_only['Imp Under'] = players_only['Player'].map(under_dict)
players_only['Under%'] = players_only[["Under", "Imp Under"]].mean(axis=1)
players_only['Prop'] = players_only['Player'].map(prop_dict)
players_only['Prop_avg'] = players_only['Prop'].mean() / 100
players_only['prop_threshold'] = .10
players_only = players_only.loc[players_only['Mean_Outcome'] > 0]
players_only['Over_diff'] = players_only['Over%'] - players_only['Imp Over']
players_only['Under_diff'] = players_only['Under%'] - players_only['Imp Under']
players_only['Bet_check'] = np.where(players_only['Over_diff'] > players_only['Under_diff'], players_only['Over_diff'] , players_only['Under_diff'])
players_only['Bet_suggest'] = np.where(players_only['Over_diff'] > players_only['Under_diff'], "Over" , "Under")
players_only['Bet?'] = np.where(players_only['Bet_check'] >= players_only['prop_threshold'], players_only['Bet_suggest'], "No Bet")
players_only['Edge'] = players_only['Bet_check']
players_only['Prop type'] = prop
players_only['Player'] = hold_file[['Player']]
players_only['Team'] = players_only['Player'].map(team_dict)
leg_outcomes = players_only[['Player', 'Team', 'Prop type', 'Prop', 'Mean_Outcome', 'Imp Over', 'Over%', 'Imp Under', 'Under%', 'Bet?', 'Edge']]
sim_all_hold = pd.concat([sim_all_hold, leg_outcomes], ignore_index=True)
final_outcomes = sim_all_hold
elif prop_type_var != 'All Props':
if prop_type_var == "pass_yards":
prop_df = prop_frame[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'pass_yards']
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
st.table(prop_df)
prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
df = pd.merge(overall_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
elif prop_type_var == "rush_yards":
prop_df = prop_frame[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'rush_yards']
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
st.table(prop_df)
prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
df = pd.merge(overall_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
elif prop_type_var == "rec_yards":
prop_df = prop_frame[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'rec_yards']
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
st.table(prop_df)
prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
df = pd.merge(overall_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
elif prop_type_var == "receptions":
prop_df = prop_frame[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'receptions']
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
st.table(prop_df)
prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
df = pd.merge(overall_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
elif prop_type_var == "rush_attempts":
prop_df = prop_frame[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'rush_attempts']
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
st.table(prop_df)
prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
df = pd.merge(overall_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
elif prop_type_var == "pass_attempts":
prop_df = prop_frame[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'pass_attempts']
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
st.table(prop_df)
prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
df = pd.merge(overall_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
elif prop_type_var == "pass_completions":
prop_df = prop_frame[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'pass_completions']
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
st.table(prop_df)
prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
df = pd.merge(overall_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
prop_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Prop))
over_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Over))
under_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Under))
total_sims = 1000
df.replace("", 0, inplace=True)
if prop_type_var == "pass_yards":
df['Median'] = df['pass_yards']
elif prop_type_var == "rush_yards":
df['Median'] = df['rush_yards']
elif prop_type_var == "rec_yards":
df['Median'] = df['rec_yards']
elif prop_type_var == "receptions":
df['Median'] = df['receptions']
flex_file = df
flex_file['Floor'] = flex_file['Median'] * .20
flex_file['Ceiling'] = flex_file['Median'] + (flex_file['Median'] * .80)
flex_file['STD'] = flex_file['Median'] / 4
flex_file['Prop'] = flex_file['Player'].map(prop_dict)
flex_file = flex_file[['Player', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD']]
hold_file = flex_file
overall_file = flex_file
prop_file = flex_file
overall_players = overall_file[['Player']]
for x in range(0,total_sims):
prop_file[x] = prop_file['Prop']
prop_file = prop_file.drop(['Player', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD'], axis=1)
for x in range(0,total_sims):
overall_file[x] = np.random.normal(overall_file['Median'],overall_file['STD'])
overall_file=overall_file.drop(['Player', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD'], axis=1)
players_only = hold_file[['Player']]
player_outcomes = pd.merge(players_only, overall_file, left_index=True, right_index=True)
prop_check = (overall_file - prop_file)
players_only['Mean_Outcome'] = overall_file.mean(axis=1)
players_only['10%'] = overall_file.quantile(0.1, axis=1)
players_only['90%'] = overall_file.quantile(0.9, axis=1)
players_only['Over'] = prop_check[prop_check > 0].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims)
players_only['Imp Over'] = players_only['Player'].map(over_dict)
players_only['Over%'] = players_only[["Over", "Imp Over"]].mean(axis=1)
players_only['Under'] = prop_check[prop_check < 0].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims)
players_only['Imp Under'] = players_only['Player'].map(under_dict)
players_only['Under%'] = players_only[["Under", "Imp Under"]].mean(axis=1)
players_only['Prop'] = players_only['Player'].map(prop_dict)
players_only['Prop_avg'] = players_only['Prop'].mean() / 100
players_only['prop_threshold'] = .10
players_only = players_only.loc[players_only['Mean_Outcome'] > 0]
players_only['Over_diff'] = players_only['Over%'] - players_only['Imp Over']
players_only['Under_diff'] = players_only['Under%'] - players_only['Imp Under']
players_only['Bet_check'] = np.where(players_only['Over_diff'] > players_only['Under_diff'], players_only['Over_diff'] , players_only['Under_diff'])
players_only['Bet_suggest'] = np.where(players_only['Over_diff'] > players_only['Under_diff'], "Over" , "Under")
players_only['Bet?'] = np.where(players_only['Bet_check'] >= players_only['prop_threshold'], players_only['Bet_suggest'], "No Bet")
players_only['Edge'] = players_only['Bet_check']
players_only['Player'] = hold_file[['Player']]
players_only['Team'] = players_only['Player'].map(team_dict)
final_outcomes = players_only[['Player', 'Team', 'Prop', 'Mean_Outcome', 'Imp Over', 'Over%', 'Imp Under', 'Under%', 'Bet?', 'Edge']]
final_outcomes = final_outcomes.sort_values(by='Edge', ascending=False)
with df_hold_container:
df_hold_container = st.empty()
st.dataframe(final_outcomes.style.background_gradient(axis=0).background_gradient(cmap='RdYlGn').format(precision=2), use_container_width = True)
with export_container:
export_container = st.empty()
st.download_button(
label="Export Projections",
data=convert_df_to_csv(final_outcomes),
file_name='NFL_prop_proj.csv',
mime='text/csv',
key='prop_proj',
)
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