id
int64 0
366k
| cite_id
int64 273
459k
| title
stringlengths 1
127
⌀ | cites
stringlengths 1
3.64M
⌀ | round_id
int64 565k
998k
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
364,800 | 379,110 | ALL | Discord pm me: Vinay (FOZ)#7905
Email: [email protected] | 904,070 |
364,801 | 379,108 | Neg STOC | David Axe, 1-3-2020, "More Than Mines: Iran Is Ready To Harass And Destroy The U.S. Navy," National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/more-mines-iran-ready-harass-and-destroy-us-navy-110791
The Islamic republic has the potential to drop thousands of mines in key waters. “Iran’s arsenal includes a mix of cheaper, older ones that float and blow up on impact, and more sophisticated ones that can be dropped from planes,” Faturechi, Miller and Rose wrote. “They sit on the ocean floor and explode after detecting nearby ships.” “We certainly have the ability to do it,” Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said last month about closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical commercial passageway.
Jon Gambrell, 6-19-2019, "US Navy: Mine in tanker attack bears Iran hallmarks," AP NEWS, https://apnews.com/5484dc4a51644fa9839546e1cd7bf89f
U.S. NAVY 5TH FLEET BASE NEAR FUJAIRAH, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The limpet mines used to attack a Japanese-owned oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz last week bore “a striking resemblance” to similar mines seen in Iran, a U.S. Navy explosives expert said Wednesday, stopping short of directly blaming Tehran for the assault.
John Ismay and Thomas Gibbons-Neff, 2-19-2020, "New Iranian Missiles Pose Threat to U.S. Aircraft in Yemen, Pentagon Says," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/19/us/iran-missiles-yemen.html
WASHINGTON — Iran has developed a new type of antiaircraft missile and shipped it to Houthi rebels in Yemen, Pentagon officials announced Wednesday. The weapons were seized by United States Navy warships in two separate shipments in the Arabian Sea.
Kandeel 19 and Connor 16
https://www.mei.edu/publications/interconnected-trade-food-security-and-stability-gcc-and-mena
Food security risks are not uniform in the GCC due to unequal wealth distribution. One-tenth of the population spends over 30 percent of its income on food. Immigrants account for much of the region’s population: 88 percent in the UAE, 74 percent in Kuwait, 76 percent in Qatar, 51 percent in Bahrain, 41 percent in Oman, and 32 percent in Saudi Arabia. Many are poor, low-skilled workers from East and South East Asia, as well as other Arab countries. They do not have access to the financial support systems that GCC nationals do, and they are particularly vulnerable to sudden increases in food prices linked to rising shipping costs and supply disruptions. To address this issue, GCC countries have invested heavily in strategic food reserves. Most of the MENA region’s facilities for stockpiling grains are in Saudi Arabia, and supplies can be released from these reserves during acute import shortages. In the event of a spike in food prices due to concerns about the safety of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or a temporary disruption due to military hostilities, GCC countries could also use fiscal and monetary measures to ease price pressures for consumers.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2016/10/18/middle-easts-migrant-population-more-than-doubles-since-2005/
Between 2005 and 2015, the number of migrants living in the Middle East more than doubled, from about 25 million to around 54 million, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of data from United Nations agencies. Some of this growth was due to individuals and families seeking economic opportunities. But the majority of the migration surge, especially after 2011, was a consequence of armed conflict and the forced displacement of millions of people from their homes, many of whom have left their countries of birth.
The Economic Consequences of Conflicts. Sub-Saharan ...
www.imf.org › Files › Publications › REO › AFR › April › English
The first is Israel.
It’s try or die for Israel in the gulf without US presence. Pollock 20 reports that Israel believes a US withdrawal would enable Iran to operate freely in the region. In response, Israel would be likely to increase its presence within Iraq, destabilizing the region and increasing the risk of retaliation. Caspit 20 explains that withdrawing US troops would create a “nightmare scenario” for Israel, forcing their hand to preserve their national security. Avi 19 writes that historically Israel has used preemptive strikes as a part of it’s military doctrine, signaling the first steps in conflict.
Overall, Brzezinski 12 says that an American decline would precipitate escalation into wider military encounters that rise to levels of strikes and counterstrikes between Israel and Iran.
Empirically, Aragono 17 reports that withdrawing US military influence has only catalyzed iranian expansionism in the region, as seen by the 2011 withdrawal of US forces from Iraq.
Overall, Khalilzad 95 concludes that a U.S. withdrawal would lead to an intensified struggle for regional domination, with expanded Iranian hegemony bringing the rest of the middle east under its influence and domination.
In fact, the ICG reports that there are 9 potential places where conflict with Iran could ensue, as
Cropsey 19 reports that Iran uses proxy wars as a way of expanding its influence.
US pullout results in terrorism resurge at much higher level
The US has withdrawn from Syria which spells the perfect storm for ISIS and other terror groups to resurge – Hubbard 19 - https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/07/world/middleeast/trump-turkey-syria-kurds.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
Rebecca Kheel, 2-4-2020, "Pentagon watchdog: US withdrawal from Iraq would 'likely' mean ISIS resurgence," TheHill, https://thehill.com/policy/defense/481451-pentagon-watchdog-us-withdrawal-from-iraq-would-likely-mean-isis-resurgence
according to an intelligence assessment revealed in an inspector general report Tuesday.
“The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA)’s analysis for the DoD OIG Department of Defense Office of Inspector General indicates that without a U.S. troop presence in Iraq, ISIS would likely resurge in Iraq,” Pentagon Inspector General Glenn Fine wrote in an introduction to the report.
During the quarter, Iraqi forces conducted “many operations” against ISIS independently, while some other operations were “minimally enabled” the U.S.-led coalition’s air support and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, the report said. “Large-scale operations” were conducted by coalition forces in conjunction with Iraqi forces, the report added.
IMPACT - terror decrease econ
LOOK TO STRAKE TERROR KILLS ECON STUFF IN STUFF TO CUT
SPIKE F2 Anti-American Sentiment
The banner in which terror chooses to unite each other is irrelevant because there would be terror organizations with dif motives - ex there are good stuff we do as well
Terrorists can just find a diff scapegoat to keep recruiting constant
Ex isis wants to basically create its own soverign state
Spike f2 russia counterterror https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/02/russia-is-not-a-viable-counterterrorism-partner-for.html
The second is the protection of oil.
https://www.realcleardefense.com/2019/12/30/this_is_how_the_us_military_is_protecting_the_strait_of_hormuz_311422.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/britain-u-s-to-protect-shipping-through-strait-of-hormuz-from-iranian-threats-11565026612
https://www.vox.com/2019/7/12/20691689/usa-iran-tanker-strait-hormuz-british
SPIKE F2 IRAN wont do bc tanks own econ
US sanctions prevent iran from exporting oil so they don’t get anything out of the strait being open
SPIKE F2 Russia fill in
Russia competing w saudi aramco, def not gonna protect it lmaooo
NUANCE - Demining strait
Johnson 16 - https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/05/05/irans-hollow-threats-to-close-the-strait-of-hormuz/
“What are you doing here? Go back to the Bay of Pigs,” Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Monday, according to state media. On Wednesday, the deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps vowed to close the Strait of Hormuz to any “threatening” ships, signaling in particular U.S. Navy vessels that have long operated in the area and have just concluded a mine-clearing exercise there.
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2019/06/we-dont-need-airstrikes-restore-deterrence-strait-hormuz/157988/
The U.S. also sent additional fighter jets and naval assets to the region, including mine-clearing vessels and an extra carrier group.
Over the past decade, Iran has threatened several times to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. After one such threat in 2012, the U.S., Britain, and France sent a joint naval force through the strait while key policymakers conveyed the consequences of further instigation. The U.S. also sent additional fighter jets and naval assets to the region, including mine-clearing vessels and an extra carrier group. Three years later, after Iranian vessels harassed and detained commercial vessels in the Strait, U.S. patrol boats began escorting ships through the passage. And after Iran briefly detained a U.S. naval vessel in the Persian Gulf in 2016, quick, high-level diplomacy avoided armed confrontation. In each of these cases, the United States restored stability to the strait without recourse to violence.
https://www.propublica.org/article/iran-has-hundreds-of-naval-mines-us-navy-minesweepers-find-old-dishwashers-car-partsGreenert said he responded by putting more of an emphasis on the use of newly developed unmanned vehicles that could be dispatched to find and detonate mines. And he ramped up mine-clearing exercises with other navies, including those of the British and Gulf states. - miller 19
IMPACT - https://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/05/business/oil-price-would-skyrocket-if-iran-closed-the-strait.html
Even if pulling out of the region does not subjectively decrease the security of oil reserves, just the perception of these reserves losing their security would cause investors to rapidly pull out of the region, resulting in less production.
Contention 2 is Iran.
Uniqueness: no matter how high tensions are, there will always be small skirmishes but they will never lead to war
Read as tensions high in jan but deescalating now using al monitor article
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/02/02/additional-military-presence-in-region-leads-to-uneasy-quiet-in-mideast-says-top-us-central-command-leader/ - squo uniqueness
Tensions high in jan article -
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/11/us/politics/iran-trump.html
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/03/iran-us-tensions-coronavirus-elections-covid19.html - specifically use the part abt desecalation
W1: Israel
US leaving causes israel to lash out in fear - could link to preemptive military strike
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/eight-reasons-why-the-united-states-and-iraq-still-need-each-other - Command f to limit israeli invovlement
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/if-us-leaves-from-the-region-israel-will-eventually-go-to-war-with-iran-613446
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/01/israel-us-iran-iraq-syria-qasem-soleimani-letter-withdrawal.html
W2: Iran Emboldenment
Us leaving gives iran open door to do whatever they want
Emboldenment of hardliners
Emboldenment of solemani followers since his goal was to get US to leave iraq - this looks like the warrant that most evi points to
Iran escalation ? Saudi response
Trump election maybe
Trump won’t ramp aggression bc of election
https://qz.com/1778828/one-thing-unites-americans-and-iranians-nobody-wants-a-war/
That’s why Kermani 20 writes that the most likely outcome for the current tensions between Iran and the US is the continuation of the status quo, not escalation.
Economist 18 https://www.economist.com/special-report/2018/06/21/why-gulf-countries-are-feuding-with-qatar
file:///Users/ayush/Desktop/Cold20war20in20the20heat20-20Why20Gulf20countries20are20feuding20with20Qatar20_20Special20report20_20The20Economist.pdf
None of this mattered much when Gulf citizens could travel freely within the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC). “Physical borders did not exist for us; our countries shared a lot of tribes in common,” explains Ms Aljalahma. But in June 2017 four countries—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt—suddenly ostracised Qatar. They cut all land, air and sea links, and some told their nationals to return home. The dispute is the most serious rift in the GCC since its creation in 1981. America is worried that the enmity among its allies is damaging its eort to increase economic and political pressure on Iran.
The quartet has issued 13 demands, which include cutting ties with Iran and the “terrorist” Muslim Brotherhood. The most prominent is that Qatar should close Al Jazeera, whose gritty reporting broke the conventions of supine, regime-directed Arab journalism. When Hosni Mubarak visited the network in 1999, barely two years after it was launched, he exclaimed. “All this noise is coming out of this matchbox?” Twelve years later the matchbox would help light the revolution that consumed him.
Habib Toumi, Bureau Chief, 1-10-2019, "US envoy on Qatar crisis resigns," No Publication, https://gulfnews.com/world/gulf/qatar/us-envoy-on-qatar-crisis-resigns-1.61350652
Zinni resigned on Wednesday.
Two State Department officials told CNN that Zinni left because he felt he had reached a dead-end, believing there was no forward movement on resolving the stalemate between Qatar and its Gulf neighbours.
The GCC, founded in 1981, comprises Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
“It is very likely that the US w
Tamara Qiblawi, Mohammed Tawfeeq, Elizabeth Roberts, Hamdi Alkhshali, Cnn, 7-27-2017, "Qatar rift: Saudi, UAE, Bahrain, Egypt cut ties ," CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/05/middleeast/saudi-bahrain-egypt-uae-qatar-terror/index.html
The three Gulf countries and Egypt accused Qatar of supporting terrorism and destabilizing the region. Qatar ~-~- which shares its only land border with Saudi Arabia ~-~- has rejected the accusations, calling them "unjustified" and "baseless." Yemen and the Maldives also cut ties with Qatar.
Qatari citizens have been told they have 14 days to leave Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE, and those countries also banned their own citizens from entering Qatar.
WASSER - Tabatabai, Ariane M., xx-xx-xxxx, "Could America Use Its Leverage to Alter the Saudis' Behavior?," No Publication, https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/11/could-america-use-its-leverage-to-alter-the-saudis.html
Both the Obama and Trump administrations watched as the kingdom's policies became more assertive, leading to the widely held assumption that America can't change the Saudi calculus. But this is far from the truth. As the Saudis' chief political and military partner and the undisputed security guarantor in the Middle East, the United States has considerable influence it can wield over Saudi decisionmaking. It has thus far gone virtually unused. In reality, the United States may have more leverage over Saudi Arabia today than at any other time except during the 1991 Gulf War.
Alex Emmons, 8-1-2018, "Saudi Arabia Planned to Invade Qatar Last Summer. Rex Tillerson’s Efforts to Stop It May Have Cost Him His Job.," Intercept, https://theintercept.com/2018/08/01/rex-tillerson-qatar-saudi-uae/
In the days and weeks after Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Bahrain cut diplomatic ties with Qatar and closed down their land, sea, and air borders with the country, Tillerson made a series of phone calls urging Saudi officials not to take military action against the country. The flurry of calls in June 2017 has been reported, but State Department and press accounts at the time described them as part of a broad-strokes effort to resolve tensions in the Gulf, not as an attempt by Tillerson to avert a Saudi-led military operation.
Tillerson made a series of phone calls urging Saudi officials not to take military action against Qatar.
In the calls, Tillerson, who dealt extensively with the Qatari government as the CEO of Exxon Mobil, urged Saudi King Salman, then-Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir not to attack Qatar or otherwise escalate hostilities, the sources told The Intercept. Tillerson also encouraged Defense Secretary Jim Mattis to call his counterparts in Saudi Arabia to explain the dangers of such an invasion. Al Udeid Air Base near Doha, Qatar’s capital city, is the forward headquarters of U.S. Central Command and home to some 10,000 American troops.
Ronen Bergman and David D. Kirkpatrick, 7-22-2019, "With Guns, Cash and Terrorism, Gulf States Vie for Power in Somalia," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/22/world/africa/somalia-qatar-uae.html
Over the last two years, war-torn Somalia has emerged as a central battleground, with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar each providing weapons or military training to favored factions, exchanging allegations about bribing local officials, and competing for contracts to manage ports or exploit natural resources.
In an audio recording obtained by The New York Times of a cellphone call with the Qatari ambassador to Somalia, a businessman close to the emir of Qatar said that the militants had carried out the bombing in Bosaso to advance Qatar’s interests by driving out its rival, the United Arab Emirates.
Aggrey Mutambo, xx-xx-xxxx, "How Somalia’s proxy wars embolden al-Shabaab," Daily Nation, https://www.nation.co.ke/news/africa/Somalia-proxy-wars-embolden-al-Shabaab/1066-5404130-151mamyz/index.html
“Al-Shabaab has benefited from the failure of the current government. That comes from bad political strategy of this regime. Somalia needs both sides (of the Middle East rivals) for its own good.”
In the past, Somali politicians have bickered over alleged interference from Kenya, Ethiopia, regional bloc IGAD or even Western countries. Shabaabs thrived during those times, but often only considered everyone as an invader, rather than appearing to take sides with foreign entities.
“Al-Shabaab is Somali led, Somali run, Somali funded and Somali operated actors operating within Somali territory. Al-Shabaab are profitin
Michael Knights, 7-19-2017, "The Best Thing America Built In Iraq: Iraq’s Counter-Terrorism Service and the Long War Against Militancy," War on the Rocks, https://warontherocks.com/2017/07/the-best-thing-america-built-in-iraq-iraqs-counter-terrorism-service-and-the-long-war-against-militancy/
Unsurprisingly, the force displayed superior discipline to other Iraqi units and suffered far less from corruption and militia penetration, to the extent that the United States was comfortable sharing some of its most sensitive military intelligence and equipment from the birth of the Counter-Terrorism Service to this day. The service attained a focus on professionalism, cross-sectarianism, and loyalty to Iraq that remains unparalleled within Iraq’s security forces. Unique among Iraq’s forces, the Counter-Terrorism Service developed the beginnings of a strong non-commissioned officer (NCO) cadre.
On the battlefield, the Counter-Terrorism Service undertook “industrial scale” counterterrorism operations in Iraq for nearly seven years, maintaining a grueling, sustained operational tempo unmatched by any other special operations force in world. The service developed intelligence, used in-house judges to generate timely warrants, conducted multiple takedowns of insurgent cells per night across Iraq, operated its own helicopter forces, and undertook the rapid exploitation and fusion of intelligence to drive new cycles of raids. By the time of U.S. withdrawal in 2011, the Counter-Terrorism Service had developed into a finely-tuned counterterrorism machine, and solidified its reputation as one of the finest special operations forces in the Middle East.
Michaels 18, Isis, xx-xx-xxxx, "State of the Union fact check: The U.S.-led coalition has liberated most territory held by ISIS," USA TODAY, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/30/state-union-fact-check-u-s-led-coalition-has-liberated-most-territory-held-isis/1081181001/
President Trump's claim that the U.S.-led coalition has "liberated almost 100 of the territory" held by the Islamic State, made in excerpts from his State of the Union speech released Tuesday, is true.
The Pentagon has said the militants have been cleared from more than 98 of the territory they held at their peak in 2014 and 2015.
Rebecca Kheel, 2-4-2020, "Pentagon watchdog: US withdrawal from Iraq would 'likely' mean ISIS resurgence," TheHill, https://thehill.com/policy/defense/481451-pentagon-watchdog-us-withdrawal-from-iraq-would-likely-mean-isis-resurgence
A U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq would “likely” lead to an ISIS resurgence, according to an intelligence assessment revealed in an inspector general report Tuesday.
“The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA)’s analysis for the DoD OIG Department of Defense Office of Inspector General indicates that without a U.S. troop presence in Iraq, ISIS would likely resurge in Iraq,” Pentagon Inspector General Glenn Fine wrote in an introduction to the report.
The latest quarterly report from the lead inspector general for Operation Inherent Resolve comes as U.S.-Iraqi relations continue to reel from the fallout over the U.S. drone strike that killed Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani at the Baghdad International Airport.
Syria empiric
David D. Kirkpatrick and Eric Schmitt, xx-xx-xxxx, "ISIS Reaps Gains of U.S. Pullout From Syria," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/21/world/middleeast/isis-syria-us.html
Ben Wedeman and Lauren Said-Moorhouse, Cnn, 3-23-2019, "ISIS has lost its final stronghold in Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces says ," CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/23/middleeast/isis-caliphate-end-intl/index.html
At its peak, ISIS controlled a huge stretch of territory stretching from western Syria to the outskirts of the Iraqi capital of Baghdad. But the final battle took place in the past several weeks around the small and otherwise unremarkable Syrian town of Baghouz, on the banks of the Euphrates River.
At the group's height, 7.7 million people were estimated to live under ISIS rule, according to Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR), the official name for the coalition fighting ISIS. Many of those people paid taxes, fees and fines to ISIS, which made up a large portion of the group's income.
Huda Raouf, 7-12-2019, "Iranian quest for regional hegemony: motivations, strategies and constrains," No Publication, https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/REPS-02-2019-0017/full/html#sec013
As a result, it is unlikely that Iran will succeed in achieving its quest of being a hegemonic power in the Middle East for many reasons; first, the characteristics of Middle East as a regional system, as it is the multi power system where regional rivalry is witnessed among its main regional powers; each of them has a countermeasure that hinders other actors’ quest for influence. Second, Iran’s quest for influence and hegemony led both international recognition and regional acceptance for its attempts to act as a regional power. Third, the cost of pursuing hegemony strategies due to reimposing economic sanctions and pressure through the great power, the USA.
Lolita Baldor, 2-2-2020, "Additional military presence in Mideast delivers message of deterrence to Iran, says top US Central Command leader," Military Times, https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/02/02/additional-military-presence-in-region-leads-to-uneasy-quiet-in-mideast-says-top-us-central-command-leader/
ABOARD THE USS HARRY S TRUMAN — Nearly a month after Iran launched a rare direct military attack against United States forces in Iraq, an uneasy quiet has settled across the Mideast.
Watching fighter jets roar off the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, the top U.S. commander for the region believes he is surrounded by one of the reasons that Iran has dialed back its combat stance, at least for now.
“You’re here because we don’t want a war with Iran and nothing makes a potential adversary think twice about war than the presence of an aircraft carrier and the strike group that comes with it,” Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie told the nearly 5,000 service members on board the 100,000-ton ship. “So, we achieve deterrence, which is preventing Iran from starting a war.”
Patrolling through the North Arabian Sea, the Truman was about 150 miles (240 kilometers) from Iran when McKenzie and a small number of staff flew aboard on Saturday. His overnight stay on the ship underscored his belief that the additional ships, aircraft, weapons systems and thousands of troops that the U.S. has poured into the region in recent months deliver a message. It’s one he thinks Iran has received.
Since Iran launched a flurry of ballistic missiles at U.S. forces in Iraq in retaliation for an American drone strike that killed a top Iranian general, there has been a visible reduction in Tehran’s military posture, McKenzie said.
Guest Blogger For Net Politics, 1-8-2019, "Withdrawing From Syria Leaves a Vacuum That Iran Will Fill," Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/syria/2019-01-08/withdrawing-syria-leaves-vacuum-iran-will-fill
The actor who perhaps benets above all others from the administration’s back and forth on
Syria is Iran. An American withdrawal would provide the Iranians with the operational
space to expand their growing network of Shiite foreign fighters, who can be mobilized and
moved throughout the Middle East.e recent announcements send Tehran the message
that Washington will no longer be an obstacle in the way of these designs.Indeed, according
to Bolton, the administration’s preconditions for withdrawal have to do with the Kurds and
ISIS: the national security advisor made no mention of the presence or expansion of Shiite
militias trained and equipped by Iran.
Liz Sly, 12-22-2018, "Iran expected to expand its reach across the Middle East amid US exit plan," Stars and Stripes, https://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/iran-expected-to-expand-its-reach-across-the-middle-east-amid-us-exit-plan-1.561699
BEIRUT — One of the biggest winners of President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw troops from Syria will be Iran, which can now expand its reach across the Middle East with Washington's already waning influence taking another hit.
The abrupt reversal of U.S. policy regarding its small military presence in a remote but strategically significant corner of northeastern Syria has stunned U.S. allies, many of whom were counting on the Trump administration's seemingly tough posture on Iran to reverse extensive gains made by Tehran in recent years.
Instead, the withdrawal of troops opens the door to further Iranian expansion, including the establishment of a land corridor from Tehran to the Mediterranean that will enhance Iran's ability to directly challenge Israel. It also throws in doubt Washington's ability to sustain its commitment to other allies in the region and could drive many of them closer to Russia, an Iranian ally, analysts say
Pollock, 1-9-2020, "Eight Reasons Why the United States and Iraq Still Need Each Other," No Publication, https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/eight-reasons-why-the-united-states-and-iraq-still-need-each-other
TO DENY SOLEIMANI A POSTHUMOUS VICTORY
There is a direct link between Soleimani’s death and his longstanding policy priority of forcing America out of Iraq. If the United States withdraws now, he will have achieved in death what he tried in vain to do in life. This would be much more than a symbolic and moral failure; it would be a major political defeat for Washington, and a victory for Iran. Conversely, if U.S. leaders remain steadfast in Iraq, they would underline Soleimani’s epic failure, further eroding Iran’s international stature while enhancing Washington’s own.
Seth Cropsey, Gary Roughead, 10-31-2019, "A U.S. Withdrawal Will Cause a Power Struggle in the Middle East," Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/17/us-withdrawal-power-struggle-middle-east-china-russia-iran/
The pursuit of this mantle in the 21st century has only one true aspirational contender: Iran. But Tehran lacks the resources to conquer the Middle East, and its Shiite character would inflame old sectarian enmities in an explicit imperial campaign. For that reason, Iran’s strategy involves expanding its influence through proxies supported by well-placed special operations forces in an attempt to wear down Saudi and Israeli strength.
Mitch Ginsburg, 4-2-2015, "Ya’alon: Iran cynically fuelling conflict in Iraq, to ensure it remains a failed state," No Publication, https://www.timesofisrael.com/yaalon-iran-aiding-both-sides-in-iraq-to-keep-it-bleeding/?fb_comment_id=886775831384209_886955708032888
Israel’s defense minister on Wednesday warned that Iran, an ostensible partner in the US-led fight against the Islamic State, has nothing but ill intentions toward Iraq and has cynically perpetuated the conflict in order to ensure that the country remains a failed state.
Natasha Turak, 6-29-2017, “Trump’s sudden Syria pullout will embolden ISIS and Iran, allies warn,” CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/20/trumps-sudden-syria-pullout-will-embolden-isis-and-iran-allies-warn.html
But a U.S. withdrawal should embolden Syrian President Bashar Assad and his Iranian and Russian backers, giving them the freedom to shape Syria’s future themselves, experts said.
?This means that the U.S. is giving up almost all possibility to have a say in upcoming peace negotiations regarding the Syrian conflict,” Agathe Demarais, a principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC. “Meanwhile, both Russia and Iran will be keen to capitalize on the U.S. withdrawal from Syria, and to use this as yet another illustration, in their view, of the fact that the Syrian regime won the war and the country is now about to be ready for reconstruction operations led by Russian and Iranian companies.”
The decision also contradicts the statements of Trump’s own top advisors. In September, national security advisor John Bolton said, “We’re not going to leave Syria as long as Iranian troops are outside Iranian borders and that includes Iranian proxies and militias.”
https://www.crisisgroup.org/trigger-list/iran-us-trigger-list
Crisis group
Benny Avni, 11-14-2018, "US must be careful not to hand Yemen to Iran," New York Post, https://nypost.com/2018/11/14/us-must-be-careful-not-to-hand-yemen-to-iran/
Yet the Saudis had legitimate reasons to intervene in Yemen: A Houthi victory there places a militant Iran proxy at their border. The Houthis periodically fire Iranian-made missiles at them, even some aimed at Riyadh itself. Access to nearby ports and waterways is threatened.
Worse: Iran, which according to a new Reuters report is ramping up its military support in Yemen, is tightening its grip in the neighborhood — a recipe for endless regional instability.
Of course, these are the same officials who sent pallets of cash to Tehran in the lead-up to the nuclear deal, enabling — even encouraging — Iran’s regional aggression. Should we now do something similar in Yemen?
The war is obviously a nightmare for Yemenis. But so are the Houthis’ tactics. And handing them — and Iran — victory now will likely lead to future unrest that no one can guarantee will be less cruel or deadly.
As Foundation for Defense of Democracies vice president Jonathan Schanzer puts it, we must “find a way to address Saudi inadequacies without ceding ground to Iran.” Washing our hands of Yemen may feel good, but it won’t guarantee peace — and will likely only lead to an even worse regional catastrophe
file:///Users/ayush/Desktop/ch220(2).pdf
IMF ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF CONFLICT
Decreased investment, trade, and productivity, along with human and physical capital destruction (including through forced displacement and devastating effects on education and health care), are some of the key channels through which conflict impedes economic growth. Taken together, these factors lead to a persistent decline in the productive capacity of an economy; counterfactual analysis suggests that conflicts imply a drop in real GDP per capita of 15 to 20 percent over five years compared with a no-conflict scenario.
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2013/06/01/not-always-with-us
As a rough guide, every 1 increase in GDP per head reduces poverty by around 1.7. GDP, though, is not necessarily the best measure of living standards and poverty reduction. It is usually better to look at household consumption based on surveys.Jun 1, 2013
file:///Users/ayush/Desktop/Article_FoodSecurityintheGulfCooperationCouncilCountriesChallengesandProspects.pdf
Hassan 19
5.2 million tons of wheat and coarse grains from North America, South America, Europe and the Black Sea are shipped on through the Strait of Hormuz to Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and eastern ports in Saudi Arabia. This represents 35 of total imports of these commodities to the GCC. 2.5 million tons of rice from South and Southeast Asia (81 of total rice imports). 0.7 million tons of wheat from Australia.Furthermore, in recent years, in response to international sanctions, Iran has periodically threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. Any conflict in the Hormuz Strait will disrupt food shipments and would have a devastating impact on GCC’s food security particularly for states that are entirely reliant on ports within the Persian Gulf: Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar 28. While 80 or more of wheat imports to five of the six GCC countries passed through at least one chokepoint, the likelihood of availability risk differs substantially across the countries. With access to both the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are less vulnerable to import food disruption in case of conflict in Hormuz Strait than Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar. Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar are the most vulnerable GCC countries to a chokepoint disruption. About 80 of Qatar’s wheat imports and nearly all of Bahrain’s and Kuwait’s passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and there are no alternative maritime routes from the Arabian Sea to the Arabian Gulf 25,28.
Schmitt 18
(Eric Schmitt is a senior writer covering terrorism and national security for The New York Times. Since 2007, he has reported on terrorism issues, with assignments to Pakistan, Afghanistan, North Africa, Southeast Asia among others. He is the co-author, with The Times’s Thom Shanker, of “Counterstrike: The Untold Story of America’s Secret Campaign Against Al Qaeda,” 7-6-18, "ISIS May Be Waning, but Global Threats of Terrorism Continue to Spread," New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/06/world/middleeast/isis-global-terrorism.html, JKS)
That spate of action, over the past few weeks alone, illustrates the shifting and enduring threat from Islamic extremism around the world that will last long after the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, is defeated on the battlefield. From the scheming of lone extremists with no apparent connections to terrorist groups, like the ricin plots, to fighters aligned with the Islamic State or Al Qaeda in more than two dozen countries, terrorist threats are as complex and diverse as ever, American and other Western intelligence officials said in interviews. The Islamic State, in particular, is adapting to setbacks and increasingly using the tools of globalization — including Bitcoin and encrypted communications — to take their fight underground and rally adherents around the world. “If you look across the globe, the cohesive nature of the enterprise for ISIS has been maintained,” Russell Travers, the acting head of the National Counterterrorism Center, said in an interview. “There’s not been any breaking up, at least not as yet,” Mr. Travers said. “The message continues to resonate with way too many people.” The Pentagon’s latest defense strategy elevates Russia and China above terrorism in the hierarchy of national threats. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis met late last month with the four-star commanders of American Special Operations forces and troops in Africa to discuss options for halving the number of counterterrorism forces on the continent over the next three years, and assigning them new missions. Yet many counterterrorism specialists voiced concern that refocusing resources and political capital could go too far and give violent extremists time and space to regroup and rebound — much as the Islamic State did in 2013, emerging from the ashes of Al Qaeda in Iraq. “Terrorist networks have spread,” said Christopher P. Costa, a former senior director for counterterrorism to President Trump’s National Security Council. “I fear that without continuing counterterrorism pressure, where there are ungoverned spaces used as sanctuaries, there will be resurgent threats,” said Mr. Costa, now the executive director of the International Spy Museum in Washington. American allies are echoing similar fears. “Europe faces an intense, unrelenting and multidimensional international terrorist threat,” Andrew Parker, the head of Britain’s domestic spy service, MI5, said in a rare address in Berlin in May. The ledger on the Islamic State is a mix of glaring weaknesses and stubborn offsetting strengths. The Islamic State has lost nearly all of the territory it seized in 2014 in Iraq and Syria, but it still controls about 1,000 square miles, or roughly twice the size of Los Angeles, according to American officials. “There’s still hard fighting ahead,” Mr. Mattistold reporters last week. Many of the group’s senior leaders have been killed. But American intelligence and military officials warn that the Islamic State still holds sway with a potent appeal on social media for adherents, from Europe to the Philippines, to carry out attacks wherever they are. Thousands of the roughly 40,000 fighters from more than 120 countries who joined the Islamic State in battle since 2014 died in Syria and Iraq, American and other Western officials said. But many thousands more probably slipped away to conflicts in Libya, Yemen or the Philippines, or went into hiding in countries like Turkey, the officials said. “I worry about very seasoned fighters who will pop up periodically,” said Mr. Travers, who noted that the continuing turmoil in Syria makes it harder for spy agencies to monitor terrorists on the run. “Some are being tracked, some aren’t.” Even Islamic State fighters who have been caught pose a dilemma. The United States military is spending about $1 million to help detain thousands of Islamic State fighters and their family members in makeshift camps run by Kurdish militias in northern Syria, drawing the Pentagon deeper into the war-zone detention operations that it has sought to avoid. Critics fear the facilities could become breeding grounds for extremists and repeat a key security miscue of the Iraq war. The recently resumed offensive in the Middle Euphrates River Valley, called Operation Roundup, has swelled the number of people held in converted schools and office buildings to about 600 Islamic State fighters from more than 40 countries, military officials said. Only one country has agreed to repatriate its citizen-fighters, and American officials have refused to identify it, fearing the publicity would dissuade any other takers. New evidence of Islamic extremism has spread to countries that have not dealt with it before, like Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In the northern Mozambican province of Cabo Delgado, a group that alternates between the names al-Sunnahwa Jama’ah, Swahili Sunna or al?Shabab, has unleashed a series of attacks on an impoverished region bordering Tanzania. Local officials said the group has no formal links with the Islamic extremist group Shabab in Somalia, but has copied many of their tactics. Since they appeared last October, the Mozambican Shabab have attacked police stations, government buildings and local villages. Last month alone, nearly 40 people died in the brutal attacks and more than 1,000 were displaced as the militants burned homes, stores and other buildings. The group’s motivations for the attacks remain unknown. It has made no public statements, nor has it claimed credit for the attacks. But military and intelligence officials said it was most likely formed in reaction to the extreme poverty in Mozambique’s only predominantly Muslim region. “We are at an inflection point in the broader campaign against terrorism,” said Laith Alkhouri, a senior director at Flashpoint, a business risk intelligence company in New York, assessing the global terrorist threat. Over the past month alone, and armed with new authorities from Mr. Trump, American Special Operations forces continue to hunt Islamic State and Qaeda operatives. In June, Mr. Trump nominated a former member of the Navy SEALs, Vice Adm. Joseph Maguire, to be the next director of the National Counterterrorism Center. On June 6, an American Reaper drone killed four Islamic State fighters near Bani Walid, Libya, about 110 miles southeast of Tripoli, Libya’s capital. A week later, another Reaper killed a Qaeda operative 50 miles southeast of BaniWalid. Ten days later, in central Yemen, American airstrikes attacked Qaeda fighters in the contested central Hadramout region. The risks of these missions was laid bare on June 8, when an American Special Operations soldier was killed and four others were wounded in an attack in southwestern Somalia against Shabab fighters. Even away from the battlefield, extremists on social media and the internet are proving to be potent. French authorities foiled a ricin plot by an Egyptian-born student in May after intercepting messages on the secure social media platform Telegram. And in Cologne, Germany, authorities acting on information from American intelligence agencies last month arrested a Tunisian man who tried to buy 1,000 castor bean seeds and a coffee grinder online. The shell of the castor bean is highly poisonous and can be used to make ricin. Plots involving ricin are not new. In 2011, for instance, American counterterrorism officials voiced increasing concern that Al Qaeda’s most dangerous regional affiliate — its branch in Yemen — was trying to produce ricin, to be packed around small explosives for attacks against the United States. The threat never materialized. Now, officials worry that the know-how from these specialized battlefield plots and operations is seeping into everyday social media conduits, where they are available for aspiring terrorists and even lone actors in their own lethal plans. Mr. Travers declined to elaborate on the German plot. But, “it does appear that the possibility of this kind of use is growing,” he said, speaking broadly of extremists’ use of chemical weapons and other poisons. “And that is a concern to all of us.” | 904,066 |
364,802 | 328,436 | 1 - Open Source | ====Interpretation: Debaters must disclose all constructive positions on open source with highlighting on the 2019-20 NDCA LD wiki after the round in which they read them. ====
====Violation – screenshots in the doc prove I do and they don't====
====1~~ Debate resource inequities—you'll say people will steal cards, but that's good—it's the only way to truly level the playing field for students such as novices in under-privileged programs.====
**Antonucci 05** ~~Michael (Debate coach for Georgetown; former coach for Lexington High School); "~~eDebate~~ open source? resp to Morris"; December 8; http://www.ndtceda.com/pipermail/edebate/2005-December/064806.html //~~
a. Open source systems are preferable to the various punishment proposals in circulation.
AND
-cutter's work than send the KGB after specific counter-revolutionary teams.
====Open source does equal the playing field====
**Overing 18** – Bob Overing, LD Scholar ("Holiday Disclosure Post ~~#6 – 10 Things Edition" JANUARY 12, 2018. http://www.premierdebate.com/disclosure-post-6/)
Open source improves on usual disclosure practices in the obvious way – you can read
AND
online library offerings or teams without college coaches, this matters a lot.
====2~~ Evidence ethics – open source is the only way to verify pre-round that cards aren't miscut or highlighted or bracketed unethically. That's a voter – maintaining ethical ev practices is key to being good academics and we should be able to verify you didn't cheat====
====3~~ Depth of clash – it allows debaters to have nuanced researched objections to their opponents evidence before the round at a much faster rate, which leads to higher quality ev comparison – outweighs cause thinking on your feet is NUQ but the best quality responses come from full access to a case.==== | 851,679 |
364,803 | 328,541 | JANFEB - Theory - Spec States v2 | ====Interpretation: The aff must specify a list of which states they defend in a delineated text in the 1AC.====
====Violation – ====
====Vote neg for stable ground – I don't know what disads and CP's I can read against your plan and what arguments will become relevant absent a state since there's no generic nukes good offense other than deterrence which affs can cut specific answers to since every neg disad card is either too generic and underwarranted or specific to another country. For example, the NoKo Regime Collapse DA makes sense vs the NoKo aff but not against the IndoPak aff. Text is key – if they don't have to spec they can just shift their advocacy depending on the 1nc – I'm literally shooting at a moving target, which wrecks competitive equity. CX doesn't check – my preround prep was skewed which is when people construct the 1NC.==== | 851,726 |
364,804 | 328,522 | JANFEB - T - Non-Nuclear | ====Interpretation: the aff may only defend that states that currently have nuclear arsenals ought to eliminate them. To clarify you can't fiat that non-nuclear states don't develop nuclear arsenals.====
====1~~ Merriam Webster defines eliminate as:====
"Definition of ELIMINATE," https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/eliminate RE
to put an end to or get rid of
====Getting rid of something assumes you already have it, which makes the aff not topical. For example, I can't get rid of my basketball if I don't have a basketball.====
====2~~ Eliminate is also immediate when not modified by a date. The aff violates because states that don't currently have arsenals can't immediately eliminate them, they could only eliminate them once they get them====
Berman JD 15 "Re: Initiative Petition No. 63 for the General Election of November 8. 2016" letter to Secretary of the State of Oregon Jeanne Atkins, 12-4-15 RE
The draft caption provides: Increases percentage of electricity that must come from renewable resources
AND
should be replaced with "phase-out" or "transition from."
====To clarify, our argument is not that they have to defend poof all nuclear weapons go away, rather the process of elimination must start immediately.====
====Violation: I've inserted a chart from the FAS that lists existing nuclear states.====
FAS 19. "Status of World Nuclear Forces." Federation of American Scientists. 2019. https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/ TG
====Iran doesn't have and won't build nukes====
O'Connor 1/3, Tom. "Iran Does Not Have Nuclear Weapons, but Here's Why Its Program Is at the Heart of the Crisis." Newsweek, 3 Jan. 2020, www.newsweek.com/why-iran-does-not-have-nuclear-weapons-1480355.
Iran is not believed to possess nuclear weapons and officially has never sought them—
AND
have to this day—that the work was purely for energy purposes.
====Dorden ev is miscut – its about Iran nukes post-Soviet Collapse but they got rid of those in the mid 2010s====
====Vote neg:====
====1~~ Extra-topicality allows them to tack on infinite planks to spike out of neg offense and artificially inflate aff solvency. There's no brightline for what a legitimate case of extra-topicality is so you have to hold the line====
====2~~ Ground: they destroy core neg arguments like allied prolif, i.e. if current nuclear powers got rid of nukes then countries that don't have nukes would proliferate, or rogue states like Iran prolif, by fiating those states never develop nuclear weapons====
====3~~ Limits: they expand the topic from 9 nuclear states to literally any country in the world which explodes neg prep burden – limits prevent aff monopolization of research and are key to manageable neg prep which outweighs because the most unique aspect of debate is deep engagement that imparts skills and education====
====4~~ TVA – defend the Israel aff==== | 851,720 |
364,805 | 328,526 | JANFEB - T - Eliminate | ====Interpretation: The aff must defend that states eliminate the entirety of their nuclear arsenals.====
====1~~ Eliminate means a complete removal====
**District Court of Minnesota '10** Buetow v. ALS Enterprises, Inc., 713 F. Supp. 2d 832 - Dist. Court, Minnesota 2010
The word "eliminate" is subject to only one reasonable interpretation—complete elimination
AND
such that the word "complete" is unnecessary and repetitive.~~9~~
====Lexico dictionary defines eliminate as to "completely remove".====
Lexico** **~~Powered by Oxford.~~ "Eliminate." Lexico Dictionary. No date. https://www.lexico.com/definition/eliminate TG
Completely remove or get rid of (something)
====2~~ Grammar – it's a generic bare plural====
Nebel 19 Nebel, Jake. ~~PhD candidate in philosophy at New York University, executive director at the Victory Briefs Institute for Debate, professor of philosophy at the University of Southern California~~. "Existential Bare Plurals and Quantifier Scope." Vbriefly. January 2, 2019. https://www.vbriefly.com/2019/01/02/existential-bare-plurals-and-quantifier-scope-by-jake-nebel/?fbclid=IwAR3d1BVzSwoB1sq7PQR9dYE3_Ee-qAgD-phE2xJh6kAmrrgPOyabpO_Dxww TG
Both distinctions are important. Generic resolutions can't be affirmed by specifying particular instances.
AND
, because it fails the upward-entailment test for existential bare plurals.
====It applies to "states" – 1~~ "states ought to eliminate nukes – therefore, states ought to eliminate weapons" is illogical, 2~~ upward entailment test – "states ought to eliminate their nuclear arsenals" doesn't entail that "states ought to eliminate their arsenals" cuz states should keep other bombs====
====Violation: they only defend __ which is a modification====
**Supreme Court of South Dakota 04 **Schulte v. Long, 2004 SD 102 - SD: Supreme Court 2004
Even if one were to accept the majority opinion's determination that the reference to the
AND
. In that regard, the Attorney General's statement is inaccurate and misleading.
====No modifications allowed====
**Supreme Court of Delaware 2k **Cede and Co. v. Technicolor, Inc., 758 A. 2d 485 - Del: Supreme Court 2000
Nevertheless, the successor judge held that "the 1976 amendments to Section 262(
AND
would not have used the word "eliminate" to describe its intention.
====There's ton of nuclear weapons—we've inserted them in the doc====
ICBMs, SRBMs, MRBMs, SLBMs, cruise missiles, gravity bombs, nuclear torpedoes, etc.
**Starr '18 **Starr, Jenny interviewing Hans Kristensen (Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists). "The modern nuclear arsenal: A nuclear weapons expert describes a new kind of Cold War." The Washington Post, 24 August 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2018/08/24/the-modern-nuclear-arsenal-a-nuclear-weapons-expert-describes-a-new-kind-of-cold-war/.
KRISTENSEN: The United States has a triad of strategic nuclear forces. That means
AND
that could be used to shoot other submarines, but with nuclear explosives.
====Vote neg:====
====1~~ Limits – they can defend anything from tac nukes to submarines to ICBMs to cruise missiles which explodes neg prep – the core controversy is whether to eliminate nuclear arsenals, not modify them, so forcing them to defend why all nukes are bad means affs will have escalation answers vs PICs and negs get core deterrence ground====
====2~~ TVA – read the aff as an advantage to a whole rez aff. PICs don't solve – it's absurd to say neg potential abuse justifies the aff being flat out not T, which leads to a race towards abuse. ==== | 851,721 |
364,806 | 328,524 | JANFEB - K - Settler Colonialism v4 | ====Genocidal settlement is not a one-off event, but a structuring logic of elimination manifested in the reiteration of spatial inhabitance and modes of being that create complicity in genocide. The role of the ballot is to center indigenous scholarship and resistance.====
Mark Rifkin 14 ~~Associate Professor of English and WGS @ UNC-Greensboro~~ 'Settler Common Sense: Queerness and Everyday Colonialism in the American Renaissance,' pp. 7-10, 2014. Recut TG
If nineteenth-century American literary studies tends to focus on the ways
AND
the ontological ground through which U.S. settler colonialism enacts itself " (xix).
====Nuclear war is a nonevent – an impossible but always possible future threat used to erase the ongoing nuclear violence of testing, mining, and dumping against indigenous people.====
Barad 19 ~~Karen Barad is a Prof of Fem Studies and Phil and UC Santa Cruz.~~ "After the End of the World: Entangled Nuclear Colonialisms, Matters of Force, and the Material Force of Justice." Project Muse/Johns Hopkins University Press. Theory and Event, Vol 22, No 3, pgs 524-550. July 2019. https://muse.jhu.edu/article/729449 (I don't endorse ableist rhetoric, brackets in original) TG
Ironically, Derrida's tendency to focus on linguistic forms of violence while eliding the violence of physical
AND
not only a very particular telling of time and history, but a particularly privileged "we," complicit in regimes of erasure.
====The only alternative is refusal. ====
**Simpson 16 **(Audra, August 2016, Kahnawake Mohawks, Associate Professor of Anthropology, Consent's Revenge." Cultural Anthropology 31, no. 3 (2016): 326–333. https://doi.org/10.14506/ca31.3.02, JKS) ty NW
What is it in the way that we imagine the political that might demand or suggest an easy answer? By "easy
AND
analyze, easy answer. My ethnographic prerogative is to make the practice of ethnography itself a refusal in time with theirs.
====Settler colonialism is constitutive of all geopolitics at a global level. The US serves as the foundational architect for global violence, which makes the alternative a prior question.====
**Cornellier and Griffiths 16 **(Bruno Cornellier, Department of English, University of Winnipeg, Manitoba, and Michael R. Griffiths, School of the Arts, English and Media, University of Wollongong, (2016) Globalizing unsettlement: an introduction, Settler Colonial Studies, 6:4, 305-316, DOI: 10.1080/2201473X.2015.1090522, JKS) ty NW
This issue of Settler Colonial Studies marks the attempt to think the global adjacent to and, indeed,
AND
the relation between race and culture in Australia, liberal logics are used to conceal new and incipient modes of dispossession globally. | 851,720 |
364,807 | 328,424 | JANFEB - AC - IndoPak War v2 | ====Plan – the Republic of India and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan ought to eliminate their nuclear arsenals.====
Qurat-Ul-Ain 18 ~~Mastoor Qurat-ul-ain is a PhD candidate at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies (DSS) at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad, Pakistan. She received her MPhil degree in International Relations from the same university.~~ "The Case for Nuclear Disarmament in South Asia – South Asian Voices," South Asian Voices, https://southasianvoices.org/nuclear-disarmament-in-south-asia/ 4-25-2018 RE
Disarmament: The Way Forward
Ultimately, deterrence puts both South Asian nuclear neighbors
AND
but globally. Without disarmament, prolonged stability will only be an illusion.
===Adv – IndoPak War – Long===
====IndoPak war escalates and goes nuclear – only elimination of arsenals checks:====
Top of Form
Bottom of Form
====First, preemptive counterforce strike – India would do it despite NFU but Pakistan considers it too====
Krzyzaniak 19 ~~John Krzyzaniak is an associate editor at the Bulletin of the Atomic
AND
; India will look for better ways to find and target those weapons.
====Second, Kashmir – long running tensions, skirmishes, and rapid escalation of conventional conflicts====
Waqar 19 ~~Annie Waqar is a lecturer in the Dept of Politics and IR at the University of Westminister. Extensive research background in Nuclear Security in South Asia and the Middle East, Defense, Arms Control, and IR. Worked for a bunch of think tanks and taught courses for NATO officials.~~ "Nuclear war between India and Pakistan? An expert assesses the risk." The Conversation. March 6, 2019. https://theconversation.com/nuclear-war-between-india-and-pakistan-an-expert-assesses-the-risk-112892 TG
Of the numerous areas of global tension, arguably the most perilous is that between
AND
thing either government, or the world, needs is a mushroom cloud.
====Third, terrorism – major retaliatory strikes, hardline nationalism, and Pakistan's inability to counter the Indian army make nuclear escalation inevitable====
Ayoob 18 ~~Mohammed Ayoob is senior fellow at the Center for Global Policy in Washington, DC, and University Distinguished Professor Emeritus of International Relations at Michigan State University.~~ "India and Pakistan: Inching Toward Their Final War?" National Interest. March 14, 2018. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/india-pakistan-inching-toward-their-final-war-24902?page=02C1 TG
However, it seems that the logic of this deterrence is fast eroding. Attacks
AND
4, 2003, is designed to inflict unacceptable damage on the enemy.
====Fourth, aggression – new unbalance and uncertainty, arms races, and international actors can't check====
MacDonald 19 ~~Myra, South Asian specialist, journalist and author of two books on India and Pakistan.~~ "India and Pakistan enter a new, dangerous era," POLITICO, https://www.politico.eu/article/india-and-pakistan-enter-a-new-dangerous-era-conflict-kashmir/ 2-28-2019 RE
Ever since India and Pakistan held nuclear tests in 1998, relations have been guided
AND
and dangerous era in their relations at a time of massive global change.
====Fifth, Pakistani officials – Article 370 controversy and deep establishment shifts prove nuclear escalation's likely====
Pande 19 ~~Aparna Pande is Research Fellow and Director at the Washington-DC based Hudson Institute for the Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia. Focuses on India/Pakistan/Afghanistan security policy. MA in History from Delhi University. MPhil in IR from Jawaharlal Nehru University. PhD in PoliSci from Boston University, dissertation on Pakistan's foreign policy. Wrote some books about foreign/security policy in the region/for both countries.~~ "Pakistan's moderates threatening nuclear war over Kashmir is a sign it's losing the argument." The Print. December 5, 2019. https://theprint.in/opinion/pakistan-moderates-threatening-nuclear-war-over-kashmir-sign-losing-argument/330615/ TG
Former Pakistani ambassador Ashraf Jehangir Qazi said Pakistan should retaliate against India with nukes.
AND
of the BJP will mean "dropping of a nuclear bomb on Pakistan".
====Sixth, perception – Pakistani belief that India will first strike and Indian overconfidence triggers escalation====
Clary and Narang 19 ~~Christopher Clary was a Research Fellow at the International Security Project/Project on Managing the Atom. Political Science professor at SUNY Albany. Country director for South Asian affairs in Office of the Secretary of Defense. He focuses on South Asia, International Security and Defense, and Nuclear Issues. PhD in Political Science from MIT. MA in National Security Affairs from Naval Postgraduate School. BA in History and International Studies from Wichita State University. Vipin Narang was a Research Fellow at the International Security Project/Project on Managing the Atom. Professor of Political Science at MIT and part of MITs Security Studies Program. He focuses on South Asia and Nuclear Proliferation. PhD in Government from Harvard. BS in chemical engineering from Stanford. MA in Phil with distinction in IR from Oxford. International Security is America's leading peer-reviewed journal of security affairs. It provides sophisticated analyses of contemporary, theoretical, and historical security issues. International Security is edited at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and is published by The MIT Press.~~ "India's New Nuclear Thinking: Counterforce, Crisis, and Consequences." Harvard's Kennedy School, Belfer Center. May 24, 2019. https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/indias-new-nuclear-thinking-counterforce-crises-and-consequences TG
The February crisis represents the first ever use of airpower by a nuclear-armed
AND
Delhi, and the world, in an incredibly dangerous and destabilizing position.
====Seventh, nuclear submarines – strategic ambiguity, weak communication, and devolution of command exponentially increases risk of miscalc====
Hundley 18 ~~Tom Hundley is a senior editor at the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting. He writes for a bunch of news websites.~~ "India and Pakistan are quietly making nuclear war more likely." Vox. April 4, 2018. https://www.vox.com/2018/4/2/17096566/pakistan-india-nuclear-war-submarine-enemies TG
Pakistan says its decision to add nuclear weapons to its navy is a direct response
AND
senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi think tank.
====Nuclear war between India and Pakistan destroys the world====
Johnson 19 ~~Scott K Johnson is an educator and recovering hydrogeologist who has been covering the geosciences for Ars since 2011.~~ "Misery of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan would be global." Ars Technica. October 4, 2019. https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/10/misery-of-a-nuclear-war-between-india-and-pakistan-would-be-global/ TG
**this is about/cites the Toon study
The catastrophe would not be
AND
worldwide and mass starvation, as well as severe disruption to natural ecosystems."
====Extinction – nuke war fallout creates Ice Age and mass starvation ====
Steven Starr 15. "Nuclear War: An Unrecognized Mass Extinction Event Waiting To Happen." Ratical. March 2015. https://ratical.org/radiation/NuclearExtinction/StevenStarr022815.html TG
A war fought with 21st century strategic nuclear weapons would be more than just a
AND
the operational and deployed nuclear arsenals, will leave the Earth essentially uninhabitable.
====Even limited nuclear war immediately kills hundreds of millions in one week====
Toon et al 19 ~~Owen B. Toon, PhD, Physics at Cornell; Charles G. Bardeen, Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research; Alan Robock, Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick; Lili Xia, Federation of American Scientists; Hans Kristensen, Natural Resources Defense Council; Matthew McKinzie, Department of Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder; R. J. Peterson, School of Earth, Environmental, and Marine Sciences, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley; Cheryl S. Harrison, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder; Nicole S. Lovenduski , Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research; and Richard P. Turco, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles~~ "Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe," Science Advances, https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/10/eaay5478 Science Advances 02 Oct 2019: Vol. 5, no. 10 RE
Regional nuclear war casualty estimates. Even one nuclear weapon explosion in a city can
AND
by exposure to this radioactive material within a few days of the explosions. | 851,651 |
364,808 | 328,539 | JANFEB - CP - Asteroids v2 | ====The United States should: ====
—Establish a policy of using nuclear ICBMs to defend against asteroids, and eliminate all other nuclear weapons
—Cooperatively reduce their nuclear ICBM arsenals down to the minimum amount needed for asteroid
AND
, and development
—Ratify a nuclear no first use policy against states
====Scrapping ICBMs makes asteroid deflection impossible – they're the only thing that can do it====
Amanda **Buchanan 16**, Assistant Astronomer @ Primland, "Is Blowing up an Asteroid with a Bomb Really a Good Idea?", Futurism, https://futurism.com/blowing-asteroid-bomb-really-good-idea
To clarify, ICBMs are the long-range nukes that the USSR and USA
AND
On the other hand, ICBMs can be launched at a moment's notice.
====ICBMs are key to asteroid deflection —- only they can do it ====
**Saitgarayev 16 **Sabit Saitgarayev, Leading researcher of the Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau, "Russia's improved ballistic missiles to be tested as asteroid killers," TASS. February 11, 2016. http://tass.ru/en/science/855968
"Most rockets work on boiling fuel. Their fueling begins 10 days before
AND
"which will come dangerously close to the Earth in 2036," he added
====Nuclear deflection against asteroids is key —- extinction ====
Cooper 13 Necia Grant Cooper, Los Alamos National Lab. "Killing Killer Asteroids" https://www.lanl.gov/science/NSS/pdf/NSS_April_2013.pdf
Whew! We can all temporarily breathe a sigh of relief. However, the
AND
a megaton nuclear blast wave from the point of detonation through the asteroid. | 851,724 |
364,809 | 328,469 | 2 - International Law Reps K | ====1~~ International law was founded by, and continues to maintain, colonialism ====
Gardner: Gardner 10 David, Graduate student at San Diego State University, "The Colonial Nature of International Law", E-International Relations Students. 2010.
In this paper I will argue that international law is colonial. In order to
AND
sovereign' states. Ultimately, I have argued that international law is colonial.
====2~~ Continued reliance on international law will only result in war and inequality — we must suspend our faith in the neutrality of international law.====
Schmidt: Schmidt 10 (Patrick, Department of Political Science, Macalester College, "MEETING THE ENEMY: AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM AND INTERNATIONAL LAW, by Natsu Taylor Saito." 2010
I do not have to go out on a limb to assume that the substantial
AND
likely to generate substantial discussion and reflection beginning at the advanced undergraduate level.
====THAT'S A VOTING ISSUE – Representations precede policymaking – they're key to avoid serial policy failure and shape our understandings – question the reps before you pass the plan – they don't get to weigh the case====
Crawford **~~Neta, PhD MA MIT, BA Brown, Prof. of poli sci at Boston University, "Argument and Change in World Politics", p. 19-21~~. 2002. **
Coherent arguments are unlikely to take place unless and until actors, at least on
AND
entrepreneurs without serious political wrangling." Hence framing is a meta-argument. | 851,695 |
364,810 | 328,761 | Contact Info | my email is ybjgadingan@gmailcom
he/him
**on disclosure:**
if you're going to run disclosure please make sure to email me first before asking for my case. if you don't read this before you do it, I'll have to take this up w/ the judge in the round bc the disclosure debate could have been entirely prevented if you messaged me. i
Pls bear with me and just message me first before running disclosure—I'm more than happy to disclose on the wiki if my opponent wants me to after round; Otherwise just msg me, since the internet be wildin at tourneys. Thank
**on sensitive content**
please add a trigger warning for things involving queer/trans violence. as a member of the queer community I am really sensitive to that content, and I would appreciate if you recognized that as well. | 851,874 |
364,811 | 378,943 | 1- Disclosure Theory | A Interp: Debaters must open source all broken position’s cut cards on their NDCA PF wiki at least 30 minutes before the round.
B Violation: screenshots –
C Standard:
1. RECIPROCITY: I disclosed and you didn't which instantly gives you a structural engagement advantage over me –
2. ENGAGEMENT - Prevents pre-round prep, knowing your generalized strat from the wiki, and scouring the wiki pre-tournament to research – infinite case list means we have no chance of every cutting specific strategies to their args – they can always prep our generics which leaves no chance for engagement – impacts:
a. small schools - only disclosure allows lone wolves to have specific prep and the ability to steal prep off of large schools to level the playing field – means you are discriminating against those less privileged than you which is a voter since its prefiat and intentional exclusion of individuals you deem irrelevant
b. engagement is a voter and is a gateway issue on fairness
3) Academic Honesty: disclosure allows me to recut your evidence before round to check distortion, power tagging, or unethical highlighting – it's a voter since it calls into question everything else – if your willing to lie about evidence nothing stops every arg you make being a lie too
4) Psychological violence
a. No wiki contact info prevents debaters from informing you of issues we deem to painful to discuss or need a content warning of and give you enough time to fix them–– obviously a voter because it risks causing actual violence to people
b. Neuro-normative ableism - neurodivergent folks need the aff in advance to prevent psychological harm links to previous links to the previous voter
Sinha et al. 14 - Sinha, Pawan et al. Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 02139; “Autism as a disorder of prediction.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America vol. 111,42 (2014): 15220-5. doi:10.1073/pnas.1416797111 – ED accessed 7/10/19 https://sci-hub.tw/10.1073/pnas.1416797111
Besides the aforementioned diagnostic domains, the hypothesis of impaired prediction can potentially account for a few other significant correlates of autism.1. Insistence on Sameness. Insistence on sameness (IoS) is a hallmark feature of autism. It is estimated that more than one-third of all individuals on the autism spectrum display some form of IoS (14). This trait may include repetitive thoughts and actions, behavioral rigidity, a reliance on routines, resistance to change, and obsessive adherence to rituals. Underscoring the significance of IoS as an attribute of the autism phenotype, the DSM-5 (15) incorporates IoS into its diagnostic criteria for the condition.
We can draw a compelling link between predictive impairments and insistence on rituals. Past research with diverse populations has shown that environmental unpredictability is strongly correlated with anxiety (16–20). Predictability is a fundamental modulator of anxiety in that reduction in the ability to predict events, even without any associated aversive consequence, enhances anxious responses (21, 22). Anxiety, especially when it is elevated chronically, is known to give rise to ritualistic behavior. These behaviors may be as benign as leg-swinging in school children who are working on a stressful math examination (23) or alarming stereotypies that may cause self-injury (24). Studies with neurologically healthy humans and animals reveal that the ritualistic behaviors that emerge under conditions of unpredictability serve as a calming response to an externally imposed stressor (25, 26). Taken together, these results suggest that rituals and an insistence on sameness may be a consequence of, and a way to mitigate, anxiety arising out of unpredictability.
First-person accounts by individuals on the autism spectrum are consistent with this possibility. For instance, Deborah Lipsky, a board member of the Autism Society of Maine says (27):
“I can’t emphasize enough how critical it is to understand that staying on a script is the sole means of keeping anxiety at a minimum. Even the smallest breach becomes a crisis because all we register at that moment is unpredictability. We fear unpredictability above all else because we are out of control of our environment.”
Completing the linkage to ritualistic behavior, Dora Raymaker, director of the Academic Autistic Spectrum Partnership in Research and Education, writes:
“The experience of many of us is not that ‘insistence on sameness’ jumps out unbidden and unwanted and makes our lives hard, but that “insistence on sameness” is actually a way of adapting to a confusing and chaotic environment…”
The same argument applies to stimming, a term used to refer to self-stimulating behaviors. The seemingly compulsive need to stim and their oftentimes social inappropriateness raises the possibility that these behaviors might be elaborate involuntary motor ticks. However, parental reports indicate that stimming behaviors are most evident in situations of heightened external stimulation (27), suggesting that stimming may be an anxiolytic response to a chaotic world: an attempt to drown out the influx of unpredictable environmental information by self-generated periodic and, hence, more predictable information. Consider this first-person account from Temple Grandin:
“When I did stims such as dribbling sand through my fingers, it calmed me down. When I stimmed, sounds that hurt my ears stopped. Most kids with autism do these repetitive behaviors because it feels good in some way. It may counteract an overwhelming sensory environment…”
Temple Grandin, Autism Asperger’s Digest, 2011
To summarize, a parsimonious interpretation of the reliance on rituals and stimming behaviors observed in autism is that they emerge from, and represent attempts to minimize, the consequences of unpredictability. They allow for a proactive imposition of “sameness” on an otherwise overwhelming environment.
2. Sensory Hypersensitivities.
It is estimated that nearly 90 of all children on the autism spectrum suffer from sensory abnormalities, often hypersensitivities, to stimuli that a neurotypical individual could easily ignore (28). These hypersensitivities cannot be explained as outcomes of abnormally enhanced sensation (29–31).
An alternative account of hypersensitivities comes from considering the complementary question: How do neurotypical individuals avoid being overwhelmed by sensory stimulation? A key role in suppressing sustained stimulation is played by our ability to habituate. A direct corollary is that reduced habituation reduces stimulus suppression. Immersion in an unrelentingly salient stimulus is known to be anxiogenic, as studies of the consequences of sensory bombardment have shown (32). Thus, aversion to environmental sounds that individuals with autism exhibit could arise from reduced habituation (33). However, this account begs the question, what kinds of factors might reduce habituation in autism?
A key determinant of habituation is stimulus predictability. For typically developing subjects, predictability of a sequence is directly proportional to the extent of habituation it induces (22, 34–36). Reduction in discerning predictive relationships between events in a stimulus sequence would reduce a person’s ability to predict the onset of the next event. Such a lack of predictability would compromise habituation and lead to hypersensitivity. Support for this idea can be found in a distasteful domain—torture techniques. Several studies have demonstrated that unpredictability of stressors is one of the key aspects of torture and leads to the development of anxiety, fear, and aversion (19, 37). “Acoustic bombardment” has long been used as an instrument of torture. Unfamiliar, and hence unpredictable, music is found to be especially effective (38). Tying this back to the domain of autism, the PIA hypothesis suggests that an endogenous predictive impairment causes environmental stimuli to appear more chaotic, leading to reduced habituation and hence greater stress.3. Difficulties in Interacting with Dynamic Objects. The dynamic world presents challenges to those with autism. The Autism Wandering and Elopement Initiative collaboration states that two in three “elopers” (autistic children who attempt to run away) have a close call with a traffic injury (39). According to the Center for Advanced Infrastructure and Transportation at Rutgers University, the vast majority (more than 75) of people on the autism spectrum cannot drive (40). In first-person accounts, individuals with autism describe the difficulties they had as children engaging in dynamic games on the playground (41). These reports are puzzling given that moving objects are not inherently aversive to those with autism. Indeed, many children on the spectrum are especially drawn to moving objects, enjoy video games (42), obsessively set objects in motion, and even engage in visual stimming that generates movement. What then underlies autistic individuals’ difficulties with dynamic objects? It is instructive to examine the specific nature of these difficulties. Several studies have shown that basic motion detection and direction perception thresholds are largely unimpaired in autism (43–45). However, to interact with a dynamic object, there is a crucial step beyond detection: anticipating where the moving object is likely to be so as to plan one’s motor movements appropriately to intercept/avoid the object. Even the seemingly simple task of keeping track of a moving object requires such anticipation; it is a manifestation of online Markov model estimation, as a visual temporal sequence unfolds. Computational systems for dynamic object tracking rely on predictive techniques such as Kalman filtering (46). These systems demonstrate that a key consequence of impaired prediction is errors in online position estimation. Transposed to the real world, this impairment would render seemingly straightforward tasks like avoiding a car or even catching a ball difficult for a person with autism
5) education
Nails 13 - (Jacob I am a policy debater at Georgia State University. I debated LD for 4 years for Starr's Mill High School (GA) and graduated in 2012. "A Defense of Disclosure (Including Third-Party Disclosure)" http://nsdupdate.com/2013/a-defense-of-disclosure-including-third-party-disclosure-by-jacob-nails/) ED
I fall squarely on the side of disclosure. I find that the largest advantage of widespread disclosure is the educational value it provides. First, disclosure streamlines research. Rather than every team and every lone wolf researching completely in the dark, the wiki provides a public body of knowledge that everyone can contribute to and build off of. Students can look through the different studies on the topic and choose the best ones on an informed basis without the prohibitively large burden of personally surveying all of the literature. The best arguments are identified and replicated, which is a natural result of an open marketplace of ideas. Quality of evidence increases across the board. In theory, the increased quality of information could trade off with quantity. If debaters could just look to the wiki for evidence, it might remove the competitive incentive to do one’s own research. Empirically, however, the opposite has been true. In fact, a second advantage of disclosure is that it motivates research. Debaters cannot expect to make it a whole topic with the same stock AC – that is, unless they are continually updating and frontlining it. Likewise, debaters with access to their opponents’ cases can do more targeted and specific research. Students can go to a new level of depth, researching not just the pros and cons of the topic but the specific authors, arguments, and adovcacies employed by other debaters. The incentive to cut author-specific indicts is low if there’s little guarantee that the author will ever be cited in a round but high if one knows that specific schools are using that author in rounds. In this way, disclosure increases incentive to research by altering a student’s cost-benefit analysis so that the time spent researching is more valuable, i.e. more likely to produce useful evidence because it is more directed. In any case, if publicly accessible evidence jeopardized research, backfiles and briefs would have done LD in a long time ago. Lastly, and to my mind most significantly, disclosure weeds out anti-educational arguments. I have in mind the sort of theory spikes and underdeveloped analytics whose strategic value comes only from the fact that the time to think of and enunciate responses to them takes longer than the time spent making the arguments themselves. If these arguments were made on a level playing field where each side had equal time to craft answers, they would seldom win rounds, which is a testimony to the real world applicability (or lack thereof) of such strategies. A model in which arguments have to withstand close scrutiny to win rounds creates incentive to find the best arguments on the topic rather than the shadiest. Having transitioned from LD to policy where disclosure is more universal, I can say that debates are more substantive, developed, and responsive when both sides know what they’re getting into prior to the round. The educational benefits of disclosure alone aren’t likely to convince the fairness-outweighs-education crowd, but I’ve learned over the course of many theory debates that most of that crowd has a very warped and confusing conception of fairness. Debaters who produce better research are more deserving of a win. Debaters who can make smart arguments and defend them from criticism should win out over debaters who hide behind obfuscation. That so many rounds these days are resolved on frivolous theory and dropped, single-sentence blips suggests that wins are not going to the “better debaters” in any meaningful sense of the term. The structure of LD in the status quo doesn’t incentivize better debating.
D voters
Fairness is a voter because it is impossible to decide who did the better debating if the debate was not fair
Education is a voter because it’s key to portable skills and is the only intrinsic value to debating. Also internal link to doing debate in the first place.
Drop the debater - no arg to drop
E competing interps - reasonability collapses to competing interps and no brightline for what’s reasonable
No RVI – u don’t win for being not being unfair/uneducational | 903,877 |
364,812 | 378,949 | Covid Classic Neg | ==Our Sole Contention is the Nucle-Lie==
Nuclear energy cannot solve the climate crisis for three reasons.
The first is insufficient resources.
====Andrews of Energy Matters 14 writes that====
Higher uranium prices will of course stimulate exploration and lead to the discovery of more uranium. As to how much more, OECD/NEA estimates that there are 10,400,500 tons of undiscovered uranium resources in the world, calculated as the sum of "prognosticated" resources in uranium-producing areas and "speculative" resources in non-producing areas potentially prospective for uranium, and I have accepted this as the best available estimate and assumed that all of it will be discovered and produced. Adding it to the 9.2 million tons of known resources yields 19,600,500 tons of uranium, which I've rounded up to 20 million tons for convenience. And how long does this last-squeal-out-of-the-pig resource last? Until 2069. The 2050 decarbonization target is met, but 19 years later the world runs out of uranium. Resource changes with time are summarized graphically below. I've assumed that the 10.8 million tons of undiscovered resources is added to inventory at the rate of 200,000 tons/year beginning in 2015 and ending in 2068: The spreadsheet calculations used to generate the data used in the graphic are here. The above estimates are of course subject to large uncertainties, but the implications are clear. There's a very real possibility that the world does not have enough uranium to "go nuclear", or at least not on a scale large enough to have a significant and lasting impact on global carbon emissions. So long as it continues to build conventional pressurised water and boiling water reactors, that is.
====Zyga of Phys in 2011 furthers that if we increased our use of nuclear power,====
Proliferation: The more nuclear power stations, the greater the likelihood that materials and expertise for making nuclear weapons may proliferate. Although reactors have proliferation resistance measures, maintaining accountability for 15,000 reactor sites worldwide would be nearly impossible. Uranium abundance: At the current rate of uranium consumption with conventional reactors, the world supply of viable uranium, which is the most common nuclear fuel, will last for 80 years. Scaling consumption up to 15 TW, the viable uranium supply will last for less than 5 years. (Viable uranium is the uranium that exists in a high enough ore concentration so that extracting the ore is economically justified.) Uranium extraction from seawater: Uranium is most often mined from the Earth's crust, but it can also be extracted from seawater, which contains large quantities of uranium (3.3 ppb, or 4.6 trillion kg). Theoretically, that amount would last for 5,700 years using conventional reactors to supply 15 TW of power. (In fast breeder reactors, which extend the use of uranium by a factor of 60, the uranium could last for 300,000 years. However, Abbott argues that these reactors' complexity and cost makes them uncompetitive.) Moreover, as uranium is extracted, the uranium concentration of seawater decreases, so that greater and greater quantities of water are needed to be processed in order to extract the same amount of uranium. Abbott calculates that the volume of seawater that would need to be processed would become economically impractical in much less than 30 years
====The second is that it takes too long. Jacobson of the LDF in June finds that====
There is a small group of scientists that have proposed replacing 100 of the world's fossil fuel power plants with nuclear reactors as a way to solve climate change. Many others propose nuclear grow to satisfy up to 20 percent of all our energy (not just electricity) needs. They advocate that nuclear is a "clean" carbon-free source of power, but they don't look at the human impacts of these scenarios. Let's do the math... One nuclear power plant takes on average about 14-1/2 years to build~~, and with the current rate of climate change,~~, from the planning phase all the way to operation. According to the World Health Organization, about 7.1 million people die from air pollution each year, with more than 90 of these deaths from energy-related combustion. So switching out our energy system to nuclear would result in about 93 million people dying, as we wait for all the new nuclear plants to be built in the all-nuclear scenario. Utility-scale wind and solar farms, on the other hand, take on average only 2 to 5 years, from the planning phase to operation. Rooftop solar PV projects are down to only a 6-month timeline. So transitioning to 100 renewables as soon as possible would result in tens of millions fewer deaths.
====The Office of Nuclear Energy in 2018 furthers that even the deployment of small modular reactors would take====
The Department has long recognized the transformational value that advanced SMRs can provide to the Nation's economic, energy security, and environmental outlook. Accordingly, the Department has provided substantial support to the development of light water-cooled SMRs, which are under licensing review by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and will likely be deployed in the next 10-15 years. The Department is also interested in the development of SMRs that use non-traditional coolants such as liquid metals, salts, and helium because of the safety, operational, and economic benefits they offer.
The third is high operation costs. Johnson of the PV Magazine in July finds
AND
to be uneconomical," says Christian von Hirschhausen, coauthor of the study.
====Plumer of Vox in 2016 observes that the ====
For context, the EIA calculates overnight construction costs for new US power plants ordered in 2014. Advanced nuclear reactors are estimated to cost $5,366 for every kilowatt of capacity. That means a large 1-gigawatt reactor would cost around $5.4 billion to build, excluding financing costs. By contrast, a new wind farm costs just $1,980 per kilowatt. A new gas plant costs just $912 per kilowatt, or one-fifth as much. (This isn't a perfect comparison, since reactors run at capacity more often than wind farms or gas plants. But even if you adjust for capacity factors, those construction costs make nuclear uncompetitive. High upfront costs can also scare off investors.) So how did nuclear get so expensive? The story starts in the 1950s, when the Atomic Energy Commission supported the first wave of commercial reactors. As with any nascent technology, early demonstration projects were pricey. Yet within a decade, companies were figuring out how to build bigger reactors, take advantage of economies of scale, and drive down the price.
The Yale Climate Connections in September writes that
Across the country, nuclear power
AND
," says Jeff Perkins of Energy and Resource Solutions, a consulting company.
====Overall, even if we build nuclear power plants, they will inevitably shut down. Fortunately, there is a solution: Renewable Energy. The EIA in 2018 reports that in the past ten years that====
Renewable ~~energy production has~~ generation provided a new record of 742 million megawatthours (MWh) of electricity in 2018, nearly double~~d, providing~~ the 382 million MWh produced in 2008. Renewables provided 17.6 of electricity generation in the United States in 2018. Nearly 90 of the increase in U.S. renewable electricity between 2008 and 2018 came from wind and solar generation. Wind generation rose from 55 million MWh in 2008 to 275 million MWh in 2018 (6.5 of total electricity generation), exceeded only by conventional hydroelectric at 292 million MWh (6.9 of total generation). U.S. solar generation has increased from 2 million MWh in 2008 to 96 million MWh in 2018. Solar generation accounted for 2.3 of electricity generation in 2018. Solar generation is generally categorized as small-scale (customer-sited or rooftop) solar installations or utility-scale installations. In 2018, 69 of solar generation, or 67 million MWh, was utility-scale solar.
====However, switching to nuclear energy disrupts this trend for two reasons. ====
===The first is halting research and development. ===
====The Wall Street Journal in November finds that====
Not only is nuclear incredibly expensive, its chief selling point is false. The industry claims nuclear-power plants are "clean" energy because they emit no carbon pollution. But hawking nuclear as a miracle of immaculate combustion belies the 80,000 metric tons of radioactive reactor waste, mostly stored on site because the billions spent to find a dump have produced only studies and popular opposition. A nation notorious for its failing infrastructure is obliged to store these deadly "clean energy" artifacts for the 10,000 years they remain radioactive. What's more, keeping nuclear-power plants on line crowds out cheaper, and genuinely clean~~er~~, energy options ~~as~~. True, government research and development ~~in renewables is less than it would have been without~~ and subsidies continue for renewables. But the results have been far superior to that of nuclear power. Costs are dropping, technologies are improving, private investment is increasing, and job growth has been substantial. Yet with all the federal government~~'s~~ support for nuclear power, it remains stagnant, stuck at generating about 19 to 20 of the nation's power. Renewables have seen an accelerated expansion of wind and solar investment over just the past decade, driving their share of U.S. electricity production to 18.
====Brown of Eco Business in January continues ====
The industry was disappearing, they concluded, while the wind and solar sectors were powering ahead. The group met to discuss the updated World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2019, which concluded that money spent on building and running nuclear power stations was diverting cash away from much better ways of tackling climate change ~~that would have~~. Money used to improve energy efficiency saved four times as much carbon as that spent on nuclear power; wind saved three times as much, and solar double. Amory Lovins, co-founder of the Rocky Mountain Institute, told the meeting: "The fact is that nuclear power is in slow motion commercial collapse around the world. The idea that a new generation of small modular reactors would be built to replace them is not going to happen; it is just a distraction away from a climate solution."
===The second is a shift in policy. ===
Diesendorf of the Energy Post in 2016 reports
(3) Wind and solar farms are cheaper to operate than nuclear (and fossil fuels). Therefore wind and solar can bid lower prices into electricity markets and displace nuclear from base-load operation, which it needs to pay off its huge capital costs. (4) Renewables and nuclear compete for support policies from government including scarce finance and subsidies. For example, the UK government commitment to Hinkley C, with enormous subsidies, has resulted in removal of subsidies to on-shore wind and solar PV. Myth 10: Nuclear power reactors can generally be operated flexibly to follow changes in demand/load. The limitations, both technical and economic, are demonstrated by France, with 77 of its electricity generated from nuclear. Since the current generation of nuclear power stations is not designed for load-following, France can only operate some of its reactors in load-following mode some of the time – at the beginning of their operating cycle, with fresh fuel and high reserve reactivity – but cannot continue to load-follow in the late part of their cycle. This is acknowledged by the World Nuclear Organisation.
====Indeed, Dr. Cooper in 2014 from the Vermont Law school notes that in order to prevent their decline,====
Mark Cooper, Vermont Law School, 05-xx-2014 ~~"THE ECONOMIC FAILURE OF NUCLEAR POWER AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CARBON ELECTRICITY FUTURE: WHY SMALL MODULAR REACTORS ARE PART OF THE PROBLEM, NOT THE SOLUTION", https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/0002/2efd793db4f9fd739a62292c029934cd4b35.pdf, accessed 2-27-2020~~ DuPont Manual NC
The ongoing collapse of nuclear power in the U.S. is readily apparent in the failure to launch 90 percent of "nuclear renaissance" reactors, delays and cost overruns for those that got started, the cancellation of projects to increase the capacity of existing reactors, and the early retirement of aging reactors. To reverse its fate, the U.S. nuclear industry has gone in search of a new technology to champion (small modular reactor ~~SMR~~), launched an aggressive campaign to sell nuclear power as the primary solution to climate change, and sought to slow the growth of alternatives with vigorous attacks on the policies that have enabled renewable resources to grow at record levels. Thus the collapse has lent greater intensity and significance to the 50-year debate over the economic viability and safety of commercial nuclear power: It is not only the fate of nuclear power at stake, but also the fundamental direction of the policy response to climate change
~~…~~
The physical and institutional infrastructure to support an active 21st century electricity system is markedly
AND
much broader before we have to settle for inferior options like nuclear power.
====EWG empirically finds in 2019 that====
Despite the past failure and poor future outlook, support for more nuclear funding persists. In a recent study, the Energy Department pointed to the $50 billion in federal incentives provided to renewables like solar and wind power between 2005 and 2015, implying that such policies can have a similar impact on modular nuclear reactors. But unlike nuclear power, the costs of wind and solar have dropped dramatically, to the point where the cost of new, unsubsidized utility-scale wind and solar power investment can now compete with that of existing coal and nuclear power plants. The bigger question is whether nuclear power is needed at all. Nuclear advocates' claims that nuclear power is required to fight climate change falls short. California met its climate goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 four years early by turning off its nuclear plants and setting policies that prioritize renewables, energy efficiency and energy storage investments over natural gas plant additions. An argument advanced in the Energy Department report is that, to ensure that power can be delivered 24/7, large coal and nuclear power plants designed to run day and night – also known as baseload plants – need to be replaced by small nuclear units that run day and night. However, mounting, real-world evidence refutes this assertion.
====Cooper of PSU in 2010 continues that====
To fill the gap, the nuclear industry is seeking subsidies from federal taxpayers, in the form of loan guarantees and tax credits, and from ratepayers, in the form of construction work in progress and guaranteed recovery of costs, while they hold out the hope/promise that costs will come down.12 The empirical evidence reviewed in this paper suggests that the hope/promise is unlikely to be fulfilled. Nuclear construction costs will remain high and a large-scale building program will require continuous subsidies from taxpayers and ratepayers. Moreover, because the costs and demands for subsidies are so high, the crowding out effect is likely to be strong, as scarce financial resources are devoted to the high cost ~~of building nuclear plants~~ projects. OUTLINE The paper is organized as follows: Section II discusses the cost trends in the U.S. and France, as well as the record of cost projection in the two nations. The cost experience was a major topic of public discussion in the 1980s in the U.S., as cost overruns created rate shock for consumers, which was a major contributor to the abandonment of about half of U.S. reactors that had been ordered to be abandoned or cancelled.13 The cost experience in France was shrouded in the secrecy of a stateowned monopoly company, but has recently been examined in a study by Grubler. The problems that the French industry is having building the current generation of reactors has become front page news. Comparing the historical experiences of the two nations with detailed data and reviewing the current pattern of escalating cost projections provides important insights into the pattern of cost escalation in the industry. Section II concludes with an explanation for the trends in terms of general economic processes.
===The Third is through grids===
Ed Smeloff, Green Tech Media, 6-29-2016 "The End of the Era of Baseload Power Plants", https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-end-of-the-era-of-baseload-power-plants, accessed 3-1-2020
PGandE’s plan to close the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant ~-~- a facility that currently provides about 10 percent of California’s electricity ~-~- marks a historic transition for the electric power industry. Not only does it signal the end of nuclear power in California, but it also ushers in a new way of thinking about the very foundations of our electric system. Much has (rightly) been made of PGandE’s commitment to close the nuclear facility without increasing greenhouse gas emissions. This low-carbon future is now possible because the costs of solar and wind power have declined dramatically over the past five years, while the performance and reliability of these technologies have been proven, and they are attracting more and more investment. Less commented on is that closing Diablo Canyon, coming on top of the shutdown of the San Onofre nuclear power plant three year ago, means that California’s electric grid will be largely free of baseload power plants. Going forward, California’s electric power system will be operated in a very different manner than it has been for the last 100 years. Since the days of Thomas Edison and George Westinghouse, the foundation of the electric grid has been power plants that run flat-out 24 hours a day for most of the year. Throughout the 20th century, these baseload power plants became ever bigger, with nuclear power plants like Diablo Canyon capable of producing thousands of megawatts. Starting in the 1980s, solar and wind power plants, driven forward by national energy policies like the Public Utilities Regulatory Policy Act (PURPA) and state-enacted renewable portfolio standards, began to be connected to the electric grid. Early on, many utilities warned that these variable output technologies would make the grid unstable and couldn’t be counted on to provide reliable power around the clock. The PGandE agreement to close Diablo Canyon shows that those fears have been outpaced by innovation. It is now possible to envision an energy future where the grid will be balanced moment to moment by a combination of energy storage, responsive load and fast-ramping technologies like fuel cells. In fact, an entire section of the agreement PGandE reached with environmental groups like Friends of the Earth, Environment California and the Natural Resources Defense Council addresses the issue of grid stability and reliability through resource integration and energy storage. This key section of the agreement acknowledges that the removal of a large baseload unit during periods of peak solar production will reduce the need for the periodic curtailment of renewable resources. It closing the plant also calls on regulators to give serious consideration to PGandE’s development of large-scale energy storage projects, including pumped hydro storage like the Helms Pumped Storage Plant located 50 miles east of Fresno. The Helms project, which began operating in 1984, was supported by regulators because it was assumed there would be excess power at night from California’s baseload nuclear power plants. Now the opposite is occurring. As more and more solar power gets connected to the grid both in front of and behind the meter, there is the potential for excess power being generated in the middle of the day. The 1,212-megawatt Helms project and other sources of energy storage can be used to absorb excess solar power and dispatch it later in a flexible manner when consumers need the power. The success of California’s transition to a more flexible and resilient power system should be seen as a model for the rest of the country. It has become increasingly obvious over the last few years that nuclear power is an economic albatross. Utilities in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast can no longer economically operate many plants. Meanwhile, many coal plants have reached the end of their useful lives, and others will need to be retired early to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. With the plan to close Diablo Canyon and PGandE’s commitment to reach 55 percent carbon-free power by 2031, it should be increasingly clear to those responsible for electric resource planning at the state, regional and national levels that the era of baseload power is coming to an end. Utility regulators and energy policymakers across the country should take notice of what’s happening in California and set in place processes that take full advantage of the modern, low-cost clean energy options available throughout the United States.
Frogatt’10
Antony Froggatt with Mycle Schneider, Green European Fundation, 08-xx-2010 "Systems for Change: Nuclear Power vs. Energy Efficiency+Renewables? ", https://eu.boell.org/sites/default/files/systems_for_change.pdf, accessed 3-1-2020
By 2050 we will need to produce more electricity than we do today but must do so largely without emitting greenhouse gases. We will need to generate electricity from low-carbon sources such as renewables, nuclear and fossil fuel plants fitted with carbon capture and storage.51While significant knowledge gaps remain, there is overwhelming evidence that some of the systemic effects of a nuclear-power-based electricity infrastructure include barriers to the development of an efficiency+renewables-based energy service society and, in some cases – especially as the level of renewable energy increases – the fact that both approaches exclude each other. There is a growing, and now near universal, consensus that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2 ) from the energy sector, are altering the global climate. The Fourth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal” and that there was a more than 90 probability that this was a result of human activities since the start of the industrial revolution. During the 20th century, global temperatures increased by 0.6 degrees Celsius. Continuing along the current trajectories of energy and land use will increase the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to such a point that by the end of this century, temperatures might increase by an additional 6 degrees. This would have catastrophic consequences for the human race and the earth’s ecosystems.
===The Impact is preventing global warming. ===
The UCUSA finds
The movement of wind and water, the heat and light of the sun, the carbohydrates in plants, and the warmth in the Earth—all are energy sources that can supply our needs in a sustainable way. A variety of technologies are used to convert these renewable ~~energy is~~ resources into electricity. Each comes with its own unique set of benefits and challenges; collectively, they represent our best hope in the fight against climate change.
====Critically, Rachael Retter of Live Science in January writes====
In the coming decades, more than a quarter-million people may die each year as a result of climate change, according to a new review study. In 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that climate change ~~will~~ would lead to about 250,000 additional deaths each year ~~and~~ between 2030 and 2050, from factors such as malnutrition, heat stress and malaria. But the new review, published Jan. 17 in The New England Journal of Medicine, said this is a "conservative estimate." That's because it fails to take into account other climate-related factors that could affect death rates — such as population displacement and reductions in labor productivity from farmers due to increased heat, study co-author Dr. Andrew Haines, epidemiologist and former director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told CNN. In addition, the WHO estimate didn't take into account illnesses and deaths tied to disruptions in health services caused by extreme weather and climate events, the review said. RECOMMENDED VIDEOS FOR YOU... The new review didn't give an updated estimate of climate-change-related deaths, but noted that reduced food production alone is predicted to lead to a net increase of 529,000 adult deaths by 2050, according to a 2016 study. Climate change could also force more than 100 million people into extreme poverty by 2030, according to World Bank estimates, which in turn, would make them more vulnerable to the health effects of the changing climate. All of this underscores the need for investments and policies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and promote ways to mitigate the health effects of climate change, the report said. "Climate change is causing injuries, illnesses and deaths, with the risks projected to increase substantially with additional climate change, threatening the health of many millions of people," the report said. "The pervasive threats to health posed by climate change demand decisive actions from health professionals and governments to protect the health of current and future generations."
To save the world, we negate. | 903,884 |
364,813 | 378,981 | Disclosure | A. Interpretation: At TOC, All debaters must disclose all previously read positions on the topic on their PF NDCA wiki page prior to the round | 903,917 |
364,814 | 379,063 | 0 - Contact Information | -
Contact Mark Foster under the following methods in order of priority
1. EMAIL
( [email protected] )
2. FACEBOOK MESSAGE
( https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100022792023670 )
3. Text/SMS
( 512-284-3664 ) | 904,025 |
364,815 | 328,506 | JANFEB - Theory - Spec States | ====Interpretation: The aff must specify which states they defend in a delineated text in the 1AC.====
====Violation – ====
====Vote neg====
====1~~ Stable ground – I don't know what disads and CP's I can read against your plan and what arguments will become relevant absent a state since there's no generic nukes good offense other than deterrence which affs can cut specific answers to since every neg disad card is either too generic and underwarranted or specific to another country. For example, the NoKo Regime Collapse DA makes sense vs the NoKo aff but not against the IndoPak aff. Text is key – if they don't have to spec they can just shift their advocacy depending on the 1nc – I'm literally shooting at a moving target, which wrecks competitive equity. CX doesn't check – my preround prep was skewed which is when people construct the 1NC.==== | 851,710 |
364,816 | 328,536 | JANFEB - T - Plural | ====Interpretation: The aff must defend more than one state eliminating their nuclear arsenals.====
====States is the plural of state====
"States" Word Hippo. https://www.wordhippo.com/what-is/the-plural-of/state.html TG
The plural form of state is states.
====And plural means "more than one"====
"Plural" Merriam Webste.r https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/pluralRE
relating to, consisting of, or containing more than one or more than one kind or class
====Adding an s makes state plural====
**Guide to Grammar 4** ~~The Guide to Grammar and Writing is sponsored by the Capital Community College Foundation, http://guidetogrammar.org/grammar/plurals.htm~~ whs-ee
The plural form of most nouns is created simply by adding the letter s.
more than one snake = snakes
more than one ski = skis
more than one Barrymore = Barrymores
====Violation: they only defend the US====
====Vote neg:====
====1~~ Precision—they justify the aff arbitrarily doing away with words in the resolution which decks and doubles neg prep to 2 countries for every aff – nothing stops them defending bioweapons or NFU next====
====2~~ Limits and ground – forcing them to defend plural means they have to strategically choose states that have common features like types of nukes or geopolitical tensions to avoid losing to PICs which is a more limited caselist and ensures link magnitude to core topic generics like the deterrence disad and the hotlines counterplan while still allowing for a robust set of affs like IndoPak, Israel Iran, or US Russia.==== | 851,724 |
364,817 | 328,540 | JANFEB - NC - Lay Debate | ===1NC===
====I negate.====
====I value morality, defined as ethical goodness or rightness. My value criterion, or way of achieving morality, is maximizing societal well being. In the context of international relations and conflict, this means we should save as many lives as possible, which is a form of impactful positive change.====
====My first contention is arms racing.====
====Countries like the US having nuclear arsenals deters rogue states or terrorist organizations from developing dangerous, untested weaponry.====
**Eldrige Colby, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, finds in 2009** (Eldrige Colby; fellow at the Center for a New American Security, JD from Yale Law; 2009; "Nuclear Weapons and Expanded Deterrence Against Catastrophic Attacks"; Chapter 15 in Part I: Deterrence of In the Eyes of Experts: Analysis and Comments on America's Strategic Posture, US Institute of Peace Press; https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/In20the20Eyes20of20the20Experts20full.pdf, accessed 1-8-2020; JPark)
Summary: The United States and its allies will face increasingly sophisticated and dangerous weapons
AND
American commitment into their strategic calculations, thus rendering arms competitions less likely.
====Historical trends and economic theory prove states will turn to CBW as substitutes. ====
**Neil Narang, Associate Professor at UC Santa Barbara and research scholar in Global Conflict and Cooperation, finds in 2016** (Neil Narang; Neil Narang is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and Co-Director of the Global Security hub in the Orfalea Center at the University of California, Santa Barbara. In 2015-2016, he served as a Senior Advisor in the Office of the Secretary of Defense on a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellowship. He is currently a research scholar and steering committee member at the University of California Institute for Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC), faculty affiliate at the Stanford University Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), affiliated researcher at the Centre for Conflict Development and Peacebuilding (CCDP) at the Graduate Institute, Geneva, and Term Member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Narang specializes in international relations, with a focus on issues of international security and conflict management. He received his PhD in Political Science from UCSD and he holds a BA in Molecular Cell Biology and Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley. He has previously been a fellow at the University of Pennsylvania's Browne Center for International Politics, a nonproliferation policy fellow at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and a junior faculty fellow and visiting professor at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation; 4-1-2016; "All Together Now? Questioning WMDs as a Useful Analytical Unit for Understanding Chemical and Biological Weapons Proliferation"; https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10736700.2016.1153184, Taylor andamp; Francis, accessed 12-8-2019; JPark)
Rather than engage in a theoretical debate comparing the ease of acquisition and destructive potential
AND
substitutes" for the deterrence and compellence benefits of nuclear weapons.
====My second contention is deterring war.====
====History proves that nuclear weapons have drastically lowered the probability of war. The idea of Mutually Assured Destruction – that initiating war will be destructive for everyone involved – has greatly disincentivized countries.====
**Franklin Miller, foreign policy and nuclear defense expert and member of the Defense Policy Board, explains in 2016,** (Franklin C. Miller;. MPA @ Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School, principal of The Scowcroft Group, served 22 years in senior positions in the Department of Defense and four additional years on the National Security Council staff as a special assistant to the President, member of the Defense Policy Board and the US Strategic Command Senior Advisory Group, five time recipient of the Defense Distinguished Civilian Service Medal, awarded the Norwegian Royal Order of Merit (Grand Officer) and the French Legion of Honor (Officer); 9-7-2016; "No First-Use Advocacy: Contradictions and Guesswork"; https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2016/09/08/no_first-use_advocacy__contradictions_and_guesswork__110034.html, No Publication, accessed 1-8-2020; JPark) CBW changed to Chemical and Biological Weapons
Indeed, what limited historical evidence is available in this regard suggests that on some
AND
mountain top." It most recently looked like World Wars I and II.
====Further expert studies confirm that having more states with nuclear weapons lowers the probability of war.====
**The Journal of Peace Research corroborates in 2007 **(Victor Asal and Kyle Beardsley; Victor Asal, (Department of Political Science, State University of New York, Albany), Kyle Beardsley, (Department of Political Science, Emory University); 3-1-2007; "Proliferation and International Crisis Behavior on JSTOR"; https://www.jstor.org/stable/27640480?seq=1~~#metadata_info_tab_contents, No Publication, accessed 1-8-2020; JPark)
As we can see, the impact of an increase in the number of nuclear
AND
more reduction as the number of nuclear powers involved in the conflict increases. | 851,725 |
364,818 | 328,534 | JANFEB - DA - North Korea CBW | ====The aff causes a shift to chemical and biological weapons – empirics and economic theory prove.====
**Narang '16** (Neil Narang; Neil Narang is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and Co-Director of the Global Security hub in the Orfalea Center at the University of California, Santa Barbara. In 2015-2016, he served as a Senior Advisor in the Office of the Secretary of Defense on a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellowship. He is currently a research scholar and steering committee member at the University of California Institute for Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC), faculty affiliate at the Stanford University Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), affiliated researcher at the Centre for Conflict Development and Peacebuilding (CCDP) at the Graduate Institute, Geneva, and Term Member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Narang specializes in international relations, with a focus on issues of international security and conflict management. Specifically, his research explores the role of signaling under uncertainty in situations of bargaining and cooperation, particularly as it applies to two substantive domains: (1) crisis bargaining in both interstate and civil war, and (2) cooperation through nuclear and conventional military alliances. His articles have appeared in the Journal of Politics, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Peace Research, among others. He received his PhD in Political Science from UCSD and he holds a BA in Molecular Cell Biology and Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley. He has previously been a fellow at the University of Pennsylvania's Browne Center for International Politics, a nonproliferation policy fellow at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and a junior faculty fellow and visiting professor at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation; 4-1-2016; "All Together Now? Questioning WMDs as a Useful Analytical Unit for Understanding Chemical and Biological Weapons Proliferation"; https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10736700.2016.1153184, Taylor andamp; Francis, accessed 12-8-2019; JPark)
NBC = Nuclear/Bio/Chemical weapons
Rather than engage in a theoretical
AND
"imperfect substitutes" for the deterrence and compellence benefits of nuclear weapons.
====North Korean CBW capability and use is uniquely likely====
**Kazianis, MLA in IR at Harvard, '19 **(Harry J., Senior Director of Korean Studies at the Center for the National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/us-invasion-north-korea-would-be-opening-gates-hell-57377, May 13) BW
Would the Trump administration actually consider invading North Korea? First of all, it
AND
one attack with such fearsome weapons on a civilian target must be avoided.
====That causes extinction====
**Millett and Snyder-Beattie '17**. Millett, Ph.D., Senior Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford; and Snyder-Beattie, M.S., Director of Research, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford. 08-01-2017. "Existential Risk and Cost-Effective Biosecurity," Health Security, 15(4), PubMed
In the decades to come, advanced bioweapons could threaten human existence. Although the
AND
and Japan using plague to cause an epidemic in China during WWII.27 | 851,723 |
364,819 | 328,557 | JANFEB - CP - North Korea v2 | ====CP Text: All states with the exception of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea should eliminate their nuclear arsenals.====
====The aff causes a shift to chemical and biological weapons – empirics and economic theory prove.====
**Narang '16** (Neil Narang; Neil Narang is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and Co-Director of the Global Security hub in the Orfalea Center at the University of California, Santa Barbara. In 2015-2016, he served as a Senior Advisor in the Office of the Secretary of Defense on a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellowship. He is currently a research scholar and steering committee member at the University of California Institute for Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC), faculty affiliate at the Stanford University Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), affiliated researcher at the Centre for Conflict Development and Peacebuilding (CCDP) at the Graduate Institute, Geneva, and Term Member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Narang specializes in international relations, with a focus on issues of international security and conflict management. Specifically, his research explores the role of signaling under uncertainty in situations of bargaining and cooperation, particularly as it applies to two substantive domains: (1) crisis bargaining in both interstate and civil war, and (2) cooperation through nuclear and conventional military alliances. His articles have appeared in the Journal of Politics, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Peace Research, among others. He received his PhD in Political Science from UCSD and he holds a BA in Molecular Cell Biology and Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley. He has previously been a fellow at the University of Pennsylvania's Browne Center for International Politics, a nonproliferation policy fellow at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and a junior faculty fellow and visiting professor at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation; 4-1-2016; "All Together Now? Questioning WMDs as a Useful Analytical Unit for Understanding Chemical and Biological Weapons Proliferation"; https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10736700.2016.1153184, Taylor andamp; Francis, accessed 12-8-2019; JPark)
NBC = Nuclear/Bio/Chemical weapons
Rather than engage in a theoretical
AND
"imperfect substitutes" for the deterrence and compellence benefits of nuclear weapons.
====North Korean CBW capability and use is uniquely likely====
**Kazianis, MLA in IR at Harvard, '19 **(Harry J., Senior Director of Korean Studies at the Center for the National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/us-invasion-north-korea-would-be-opening-gates-hell-57377, May 13) BW
Would the Trump administration actually consider invading North Korea? First of all, it
AND
one attack with such fearsome weapons on a civilian target must be avoided.
====That causes extinction====
**Millett and Snyder-Beattie '17**. Millett, Ph.D., Senior Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford; and Snyder-Beattie, M.S., Director of Research, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford. 08-01-2017. "Existential Risk and Cost-Effective Biosecurity," Health Security, 15(4), PubMed
In the decades to come, advanced bioweapons could threaten human existence. Although the
AND
and Japan using plague to cause an epidemic in China during WWII.27 | 851,731 |
364,820 | 328,558 | JANFEB - CP - Harker Adv | ====States should:====
====De-alert nuclear arsenals====
====Eliminate all current and cease development of AI====
====construct isolated, continuously manned, self-sufficient underground and underwater refuges that can support at least 100 people and protect them from nuclear fallout. ====
====China should establish a policy prohibiting the use of conventional strikes against US early warning satellites ====
====First plank solves cyberattacks====
Gady 15 ~~Franz-Stefan, Senior Editor with The Diplomat~~ "Could Cyber Attacks Lead to Nuclear War?," No Publication, https://thediplomat.com/2015/05/could-cyber-attacks-lead-to-nuclear-war/ 5-4-15 RE
"De-alerting" nuclear arsenals could help reduce the likelihood of a cyberattack
AND
lead time to prepare nuclear missiles for launch would not diminish the deterrent value
====De-alerting completely eliminates risk of accidents====
**Steinbruner, 9** — University of Maryland Center for International and Security Studies director
~~Dr. John, Arms Control Association board chair, "Reframing De-Alert," 2009, http://www.ewi.info/system/files/Steinbruner.pdf~~
Most individuals not embedded in the contemporary security bureaucracies and even some who are readily
AND
force configuration would also establish much higher standards of protection against unauthorized access.
====Proven by their ev which is about short decision times—we inserted below====
According to open sources, operators at the North American Aerospace Defense Command have less than three minutes to assess and confirm initial indications from early-warning systems of an incoming attack. This compressed decision-making timeframe could put political leaders under intense pressure to make a decision to escalate during a crisis, with incomplete (and possibly false) information about a situation.
====Third plank solves extinction from nuke war====
**Jebari '15**, - PhD student at KTH studying applied ethics and how to deal with challenges posed by accelerating technological development presents. (Karim "Existential Risks: Exploring a Robust Risk Reduction Strategy" Science and Engineering Ethics, June 2015, Volume 21, Issue 3, pp 541–554) //AL **edited for gendered language
Costs While this measure would be quite expensive, it would probably be much cheaper
AND
be needed to fully assess the costs, and social and technological challenges.
====PGS shift causes space weaponization—-undermines stability AND, renders PGS ineffective. ====
Nayef **Al-Rodhan** **18**. Honorary Fellow of St. Antony's College at Oxford University; Senior Fellow and Head of the Geopolitics and Global Futures Programme at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy. "Weaponization and Outer Space Security." Global Policy. 3/12/2018. https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/12/03/2018/weaponization-and-outer-space-security.
Space weaponization is not a new phenomenon. However, a large number of technological
AND
hypersonic missiles for moving targets, which require a steady stream of data.
====Space weaponization causes extinction—even without nuclear weapons.====
Dr. Gordon **Mitchell 01**. Associate Professor of Communication and Director of Debate at the University of Pittsburgh. "Missile Defence: Trans-Atlantic Diplomacy at a Crossroads." ISIS Briefing on Ballistic Missile Defence. http://www.isisuk.demon.co.uk/0811/isis/uk/bmd/no6.html
The dizzying speed of space warfare would introduce intense 'use or lose' pressure into strategic
AND
space strikes the earth with such high velocity that it can do enormous damage | 851,731 |
364,821 | 328,560 | 2 - Right Wing Extremism PIC v2 | ====We affirm the entirety of the 1AC except advocate deploying the will to transparency against groups classified as right-wing extremists and the alt-right, and the othering of those groups. ====
====They cause horrific discriminatory violence and curb activism – surveillance solves.** ====**
**Banerjee 16** (Shruti, "Addressing an urgent need for increased monitoring of right-wing extremist groups and domestic terrorism", http://rightswireblog.org/tag/right-wing-extremism/)
With incidents like neo-Nazi Keith Luke raping a woman and murdering three people
AND
threats as systemic in nature and adequately monitoring right-wing extremist groups. | 851,735 |
364,822 | 328,510 | 2 - Cap K - Antiblackness v2 | ====Their method does obfuscatory ideological work by prioritizing theory over materiality—things have changed and only analysis of political economy can explain how and why. ====
Reed 13 Adolph Reed, Jr. (University Of Pennsylvania), 2-25-2013, "Django Unchained, or, The Help: How "Cultural Politics" Is Worse Than No Politics at All, and Why," nonsite.org, https://nonsite.org/feature/django-unchained-or-the-help-how-cultural-politics-is-worse-than-no-politics-at-all-and-why RE
Effacement of historicity and the social in favor of the timeless—that is,
AND
we fix our gaze in the rearview mirror appeals to an intellectual laziness.
====Capitalism causes war, violence, environmental destruction and extinction.====
**Robinson 18** (William I., Prof. of Sociology, Global and International Studies, and Latin American Studies, @ UC-Santa Barbara, "Accumulation Crisis and Global Police State" Critical Sociology) RE
Each major episode of crisis in the world capitalist system has presented the potential for
AND
the peoples in these spaces must be repressed by the global police state.
====The alternative is to theorize through Marxist Materialism, which contests the political efficacy and descriptive accuracy of the 1AC by returning to the conceptual tools long central to the American black radical tradition====
**Ferguson '15** (Stephen C., Assoc. Prof. in Liberal Studies @ North Carolina A and T State U., Philosophy of African American Studies: Nothing Left of Blackness, p. 7-14)
Marxism in Ebony Materialist Philosophical Inquiry and Black Studies In any academic discipline, there
AND
that slavery, colonialism, and imperialism are part and parcel of capitalism.
====Their evidence is historically inaccurate – analyses of capitalism explain anti-blackness and slavery====
**Selfa 10** (Lance, Editor of and contributor to International Socialist Review, quoting Eric Williams, D.Phil from Oxford, first Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago, "The roots of racism," http://socialistworker.org/2010/10/21/the-roots-of-racism)
Racism is a particular form of oppression. It stems from discrimination against a group
AND
abolish racism's chief source—capitalism—and build a new socialist society. | 851,712 |
364,823 | 328,552 | 1 - New Affs Bad v3 | ====Interpretation—the aff must disclose the plan text, framework, and advantage area 30 minutes before the round. To clarify, disclosure can occur on the wiki or over message.====
====Violation—they didn't====
====Vote neg for prep and clash—two internal links—a) neg prep—4 minutes of prep is not enough to put together a coherent 1nc or update generics—30 minutes is necessary to learn a little about the affirmative and piece together what 1nc positions apply and cut and research their applications to the affirmative b) aff quality—plan text disclosure discourages cheap shot affs. If the aff isn't inherent or easily defeated by 20 minutes of research, it should lose—this will answer the 1ar's claim about innovation—with 30 minutes of prep, there's still an incentive to find a new strategic, well justified aff, but no incentive to cut a horrible, incoherent aff that the neg can't check against the broader literature.==== | 851,729 |
364,824 | 328,419 | 1 - Multiple Shells Bad | Interp: Debaters may not read multiple theory and/or T shells with an implication of drop the debater and no RVI’s.
Violation:
Prefer:
1 Strat Skew – I have to win substance and beat back both shells, while they just have to win 1 creating a 3:1 skew definitionally harming quantitative access to the ballot.
2 Clash – Focusing on the interp and counter interp of a single shell ensures a nuanced theory debate over the benefits of certain debate practices. That is key to education because in-depth clash on one issues forces interaction rather than just robotically extending dropped arguments. | 851,644 |
364,825 | 328,489 | NOVDEC - CP - Courts | ====Counterplan text – The Supreme Court of the United States, on the next available test case, ought to rule fossil fuel subsidies unconstitutional.====
====A slew of test cases now that challenge fossil fuel subsidies, which makes rulings ripe and justiciable ====
**Hasemyer, 19** – InsideClimate News reporter David Hasemyer is co-author of the "Dilbit Disaster: Inside the Biggest Oil Spill You've Never Heard Of," which won the 2013 Pulitzer Prize for National Reporting,
David Hasemyer, "Fossil Fuels on Trial: Where the Major Climate Change Lawsuits
AND
briefly put on hold by the Supreme Court after the federal government appealed. | 851,702 |
364,826 | 328,410 | NOVDEC - AC - Peak Oil | ====Peak oil is imminent and guarantees civilizational collapse – immediate transition is needed to prevent inevitable crisis ====
Kuhns and Shaw 18 Roger James Kuhns ~~Writer, filmmaker, performer, geologist (Ph.D), and founder of SustainAudit, LLC, a sustainable practices application company based in Mystic, Connecticut~~ and George H. Shaw ~~Professor of geology at Union College~~, 10 February 2018, "Peak Oil and Petroleum Energy Resources" Navigating the Energy Maze pp 53-63, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-22783-2_7 // ash
7.2 Global Resources
There have been numerous projections of the global petroleum
AND
to 2060 for completing the transition to a sustainable energy economy.
====Subsidies prop up failing coal and oil industries and prevent a transition to cleaner energy sources ====
Nuccitelli 17 Dana Nuccitelli ~~Dana Nuccitelli is an environmental scientist, and author of Climatology versus Pseudoscience. He has published 10 papers related to climate change in peer-reviewed journals, including three studies on the expert climate consensus~~, 8-3-2017, "Trump's plan to bail out failing fossil fuels with taxpayer subsidies is perverse," Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/oct/09/trumps-plan-to-bail-out-failing-fossil-fuels-with-taxpayer-subsidies-is-perverse // ash
Trump's proposed coal bailout
The Trump administration has made no secret of its love
AND
Americans are paying for it up-front in the form of taxes.
====Supply decline triggers worldwide instability and resource wars – continued reliance on oil guarantees recurring conflicts ====
Friedemann 15 Alice J. Friedemann ~~Systems analyst and author~~, 10 December 2015, "U.S. Energy Policy: Oil Wars and Drill-Baby-Drill to Keep Autos Running?" SpringerBriefs in Energy, 117–122, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-26375-5_19 // ash
Wars Keep the Oil Flowing
In a 1980 "State of the Union"
AND
All the while, U.S. fossil fuel dependence will continue.
====Plan – the United States should eliminate production subsidies for fossil fuels.====
====Producer subsidies are listed by Redman 17 – we've inserted charts in the doc====
Redman 17 ~~Janet Redman is an associate fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies and the former director of the Climate Policy Program. Janet is currently the U.S. Policy Director at Oil Change International and serves on the board of directors of the Global Alliance for Incinerator Alternatives. MA from Clark University in International Development and Social Change. BS in Enviro Sci from U of Vermont. Oil Change International is a research, communications, and advocacy organization focused on exposing the true costs of fossil fuels and facilitating the coming transition towards clean energy.~~ "DIRTY ENERGY DOMINANCE: DEPENDENT ON DENIAL." Oil Change International. October 2017. http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2017/10/OCI_US-Fossil-Fuel-Subs-2015-16_Final_Oct2017.pdf TG
====Fossil fuels are defined by the EPA====
**EPA 13 **(Environmental Protection Agency, "System of Registries" Climate Change Terms Vocabulary Catalog, 9-9-2013, https://ofmpub.epa.gov/sor_internet/registry/termreg/searchandretrieve/glossariesandkeywordlists/search.do?details=andamp;glossaryName=Glossary20Climate20Change20Terms) EE
Fossil Fuel
Definition: A general term for organic materials formed from decayed plants
AND
heat and pressure in the earth's crust over hundreds of millions of years.
====The plan decarbonizes the economy, reduces foreign energy dependence, and kickstarts a renewable revolution. ====
Monasterolo 19 Irene Monasterolo ~~Irene Monasterolo is a development economist with experience in policy monitoring and evaluation; institutional capacity building; governance of evidence-based sustainability policies; complex system thinking for modelling the resource-climate nexus; green fiscal and monetary policies for financing the green economy; and adaptation tools for building agricultural resilience to climate change, focusing on food risk and climate adaptation. She has worked as a scientist in academia, as an economist for consulting companies, as a consultant for the World Bank. She is currently Assistant Professor of Climate Economics and Finance at the Vienna University of Economics and Business and a Visiting Scholar with Stanford Energy's Sustainable Finance Initiative. She holds a PhD in Agri-food economics and statistics from the University of Bologna (IT) and held a post-doc at the Global Sustainability Institute in Cambridge (UK) focused on modelling the impact of resource constraints on global growth and political instability.~~ and Marco Raberto ~~Associate Professor of Business and Management Engineering, University of Genoa, Italy~~ (2019). The impact of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies on the low-carbon transition. Energy Policy, 124, 355–370. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.08.051 // ash
The phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies contributes to improve the performance of the production
AND
scenario to the real economy, green capital investments and the credit market.
====Elimination ushers in an era of carbon consciousness ====
RI 19 Roosevelt Institute, 2019, " Decarbonizing the US Economy: Pathways Toward a Green New Deal " Roosevelt Institute, https://rooseveltinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/GND_policy-brief-fossil-fuel-subsidies.pdf // ash
Historically, the US government has chosen to subsidize the fossil fuel industry to a
AND
prices while freeing up additional resources for the rapid decarbonization of the US.
====Our climate leadership gets modeled====
**Metcalf 18 **Gilbert Metcalf (John DiBiaggio Professor of Citizenship and Public Service and a Professor of Economics at Tufts University. In addition, he is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a University Fellow at Resources For The Future). 2018, The impact of removing tax preferences for US oil and natural gas production: measuring tax subsidies by an equivalent price impact approach. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 5(1), 1-37 WJ
Tax reform could, however, strengthen US climate leadership and therefore help mitigate climate
AND
those countries that international pressure for reform would overcome domestic barriers against it. | 851,631 |
364,827 | 328,482 | NOVDEC - DA - USMCA | ====USMCA will pass now but it requires strong bipartisanship====
Rounds 10/30, Mike ~~US Senator~~. "Pass the USMCA." Brookings Register. October 30, 2019. https://brookingsregister.com/article/pass-the-usmca TG
Currently, the USMCA is awaiting a vote in the U.S. House
AND
concerns about their ability to work on anything bipartisan, like the USMCA.
====The plan triggers intra and inter party fights in Congress ====
GMO 4/29 The Green Market Oracle, 4-2-2019, "Fossil Fuel Industry Pays Legislators to Protect their Subsidies," The Green Market Oracle, http://www.thegreenmarketoracle.com/2019/04/fossil-fuel-industry-pays-legislators.html // ash
There have been many calls to phase-out fossil fuel subsidies. A decade
AND
5 times as much cash as those who voted to eliminate the subsidies.
====Climate related bills are super partisan====
Nuccitelli 18 ~~Dana Nuccitelli is an environmental scientist and risk assessor with many published climate papers. He writes for Yale Climate Connections. BS from UC Berkeley in astrophysics. Master's in physics from UC Davis.~~ "97 of House Republicans foolishly reject carbon taxes." Guardian. July 20, 2018. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jul/20/97-of-house-republicans-foolishly-reject-carbon-taxes TG
Yesterday, the House of Representatives voted on an anti-carbon tax Resolution.
AND
with six to seven pro-fossil fuel Democrats voting 'Yes.'
====USMCA is necessary to prevent the collapse of US agriculture.====
Duvall 19 —- Vincent "Zippy" Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, ("U.S. Ag Gets a Great Deal with USMCA," 4-3-2019, AFBF, https://www.fb.org/viewpoints/u.s.-ag-gets-a-great-deal-with-usmca, accessed 6-16-2019)
At the same time, we always have our eye on the latest technology and
AND
we can move forward with opening and expanding more markets around the globe.
====Stable U.S. ag key to prevent great power wars—multiple hotspots====
**Castellaw 17** (John – 36-year veteran of the U.S. Marine Corps and the Founder and CEO of Farmspace Systems LLC, "Opinion: Food Security Strategy Is Essential to Our National Security," 5/1/17, https://www.agri-pulse.com/articles/9203-opinion-food-security-strategy-is-essential-to-our-national-security)
The United States faces many threats to our National Security. These threats include continuing
AND
and agricultural prosperity while materially contributing to our Nation's and the world's security. | 851,698 |
364,828 | 328,504 | NOVDEC - Theory - Aspec v2 | ====Interp – the aff must specify the actor enforcing the plan in the 1AC plan text.====
====Violation – they didn't====
====Prefer ====
====1~~ Stable ground – I lose links to disads, counterplans, and nuanced solvency takeouts which are key since certain DAs like elections only link to certain actors and links to federalism flip directions based on the actor. Text is key since shifting advocacies between speeches means I'm shooting at a moving target.====
====2~~ Policy ed – it's vital to education on energy issues====
**Annual Review of Energy 76 **(Energy Regulation: A Quagmire for Energy Policy Annual Review of Energy, Vol. 1: 715-725, November, http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.eg.01.110176.003435) EE
The ultimate effectiveness of any policy is largely dependent on the individual efficacy and coordination
AND
in 1974 and the first half of 1975 mirror this state of affairs.
====The implication is that you should stick them with the USFG, but if they contest the link to the disad that proves the abuse and this becomes drop the debater.====
McConnell 87 (Assistant Professor of Law, University of Chicago) 54 U. Chi. L. Rev. 1484 (1987), Federalism: Evaluating the Founders' Design; McConnell, Michael W.
The important question is not the locus of sovereignty prior to the Constitution, but
AND
by the Constitution ... are reserved to the States respectively . . . ,"). | 851,709 |
364,829 | 328,508 | JANFEB - Theory - Spec Enforcement | ====Interpretation: the affirmative must specify the implementation mechanism for eliminating nuclear weapons. ====
====Violation: ====
====Standards – ====
====1~~ Topic lit – enforcement is the core question of the topic.====
**Perkovich and Acton '9 **(Abolishing Nuclear Weapons by George Perkovich and James M. Acton, Adelphi Paper 396, International Institute for Strategic Studies. 2009. https://carnegieendowment.org/files/abolishing_nuclear_weapons_debate.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3yH-hsViJKHh73l8O84YQCwx38z1bFqzVsFKb1I9da6MAS2oMxPWXPy9c) cw//az DOA 12/20/19
Chapter 1 posited that before states would proceed over the horizon to prohibit nuclear weapons
AND
the choices that would need to be made in establishing an enforcement system.
====2~~ Ground – I don't know the aff's scope, timeframe, implementation mechanism, etc. so they can fiat perfect solvency. Takes out prolif, nuclear terror, shift, etc. the neg is left guessing which ground actually links resulting in the only option being generics that never test specific aspects of the aff.====
====3~~ real world: there is no normal means. Nuclear terminology is notoriously vague – this wrecks enforcement. ====
**Starr '7 **(Steven Starr. "AN EXPLANATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS TERMINOLOGY." November 29, 2007. https://www.wagingpeace.org/an-explanation-of-nuclear-weapons-terminology/) CVHS AB
Discussions of nuclear weapons and the policies which guide them often utilize terminology which lacks
AND
N. scrambling for a means to decipher exactly what was being debated. | 851,711 |
364,830 | 328,544 | JANFEB - T - Eliminate v2 | ====Interpretation: The aff must defend that states eliminate the entirety of their nuclear arsenals.====
====Eliminate means a complete removal====
**Patent Trial and Appeal Board 18 **(2018 Pat. App. LEXIS 6128 (P.T.A.B. August 2, 2018))
Claim 1 requires, inter alia, that the glass sheet comprise "less than
AND
"eliminate") to mean the complete removal of bubbles from the glass.
====Lexico dictionary defines eliminate as to "completely remove".====
Lexico** **~~Powered by Oxford.~~ "Eliminate." Lexico Dictionary. No date. https://www.lexico.com/definition/eliminate TG
Completely remove or get rid of (something)
====Violation: they only defend __ which is a modification====
**Supreme Court of South Dakota 04 **Schulte v. Long, 2004 SD 102 - SD: Supreme Court 2004
Even if one were to accept the majority opinion's determination that the reference to the
AND
. In that regard, the Attorney General's statement is inaccurate and misleading.
====No modifications allowed====
**Supreme Court of Delaware 2k **Cede and Co. v. Technicolor, Inc., 758 A. 2d 485 - Del: Supreme Court 2000
Nevertheless, the successor judge held that "the 1976 amendments to Section 262(
AND
would not have used the word "eliminate" to describe its intention.
====There's ton of nuclear weapons—we've inserted them in the doc====
ICBMs, SRBMs, MRBMs, SLBMs, cruise missiles, gravity bombs, nuclear torpedoes, etc.
**Starr '18 **Starr, Jenny interviewing Hans Kristensen (Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists). "The modern nuclear arsenal: A nuclear weapons expert describes a new kind of Cold War." The Washington Post, 24 August 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2018/08/24/the-modern-nuclear-arsenal-a-nuclear-weapons-expert-describes-a-new-kind-of-cold-war/.
KRISTENSEN: The United States has a triad of strategic nuclear forces. That means
AND
that could be used to shoot other submarines, but with nuclear explosives.
====Vote neg:====
====1~~ Limits – they can defend anything from tac nukes to submarines to ICBMs to cruise missiles which explodes neg prep – the core controversy is whether to eliminate nuclear arsenals, not modify them, so forcing them to defend why all nukes are bad means affs will have escalation answers vs PICs and negs get core deterrence ground====
====2~~ TVA – read the aff as an advantage to a whole rez aff. ==== | 851,727 |
364,831 | 328,550 | JANFEB - DA - IndoPak CBW | ====The aff causes a shift to chemical and biological weapons – empirics and economic theory prove.====
**Narang '16** (Neil Narang; Neil Narang is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and Co-Director of the Global Security hub in the Orfalea Center at the University of California, Santa Barbara. In 2015-2016, he served as a Senior Advisor in the Office of the Secretary of Defense on a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellowship. He is currently a research scholar and steering committee member at the University of California Institute for Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC), faculty affiliate at the Stanford University Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), affiliated researcher at the Centre for Conflict Development and Peacebuilding (CCDP) at the Graduate Institute, Geneva, and Term Member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Narang specializes in international relations, with a focus on issues of international security and conflict management. Specifically, his research explores the role of signaling under uncertainty in situations of bargaining and cooperation, particularly as it applies to two substantive domains: (1) crisis bargaining in both interstate and civil war, and (2) cooperation through nuclear and conventional military alliances. His articles have appeared in the Journal of Politics, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Peace Research, among others. He received his PhD in Political Science from UCSD and he holds a BA in Molecular Cell Biology and Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley. He has previously been a fellow at the University of Pennsylvania's Browne Center for International Politics, a nonproliferation policy fellow at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and a junior faculty fellow and visiting professor at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation; 4-1-2016; "All Together Now? Questioning WMDs as a Useful Analytical Unit for Understanding Chemical and Biological Weapons Proliferation"; https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10736700.2016.1153184, Taylor andamp; Francis, accessed 12-8-2019; JPark)
NBC = Nuclear/Bio/Chemical weapons
Rather than engage in a theoretical
AND
"imperfect substitutes" for the deterrence and compellence benefits of nuclear weapons.
====Both India and Pakistan have latent CBW capability – nukes prevent their development====
**Yamin 13** — National Defence University Islamabad strategic and nuclear studies professor. ~~Tughral, "disaster like floods and earthquakes. Future disaster management policies should cover issues like CBW attacks. This should include inter alia training of first responders, including decon staff and medics, arranging for decontamination facilities, stocking hospitals with chem-bio vaccines, earmarking shelters, early warning sirens and public awareness through print and electronic media.," Policy Perspectives, 10.1, 2013, jstor, accessed 12-21-19~~
CBWs in South Asia
Both India and Pakistan have the requisite human resource capital
AND
situation arising from chemical or bio-warfare. The National Disaster Managemen Authority
====That causes extinction====
**Millett 17**. Millett, Ph.D., Senior Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford; and Snyder-Beattie, M.S., Director of Research, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford. 08-01-2017. "Existential Risk and Cost-Effective Biosecurity," Health Security, 15(4), PubMed
In the decades to come, advanced bioweapons could threaten human existence. Although the
AND
and Japan using plague to cause an epidemic in China during WWII.27 | 851,728 |
364,832 | 328,527 | JANFEB - CP - US Submarines | ====CP Text: The United States ought to maintain their nuclear-armed submarines. Other states should eliminate their nuclear-armed submarines.====
====Subs key to assurance—-South Korea AND Japan. ====
Margaret **Williams 18**, MA Candidate at Stanford University's International Policy Studies program, citing Japanese and South Korean statements about the NPT, 6/13/18, "The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review: Reception by U.S. Allies in the Asia-Pacific," https://nuclearnetwork.csis.org/2018-nuclear-posture-review-reception-u-s-allies-asia-pacific/
In February 2018, the Department of Defense released the Trump administration's Nuclear Posture Review
AND
has been rapidly worsened since the release of the previous 2010 NPR.13
====Scenario 1 – Asia prolif causes extinction ====
Cimbala 14 — Stephen J. Cimbala, Distinguished Professor of Political Science, Penn State Brandywine, an American Studies faculty member, B.A. in Journalism from Penn State in 1965, M.A.in 1967 and his Ph.D. in 1969 both in Political Science, from the University of Wisconsin, Madison,has consulted for a number of U.S. government agencies and defense contractors, 2014("Nuclear Weapons in Asia: Perils and Prospects", Military and Strategic Affairs, Volume 6, No. 1, March, Available Online at http://www.inss.org.il/uploadImages/systemFiles/MASA6-1Eng20(4)_Cimbala.pdf, Accessed 06-24-2016, p. 24-5, aqp)
Failure to contain proliferation in Pyongyang could spread nuclear fever throughout Asia. Japan and
AND
to forestall attack as offensive preparations for attack, thus triggering a mistaken preemption
====Scenario 2 – NPT====
====Japanese nuclearization is devastating – wrecks the NPT, deterrence fails, and high chance of war====
**Kingston, Asian Studies @TempleUnivJapan, 17 **(Jeff, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2017/02/25/commentary/nuclear-option-make-sense-japan/~~#.W65n8OhKhhE)
Going nuclear, however, won't make Japan safer and won't lighten the American security
AND
regional tensions, but also of loose nukes falling into the wrong hands."
====Strong NPT prevents global nuclear war====
Cooper 15** **– Christian Cooper is a term member at the Council on Foreign Relations ("The Pride of the Diplomats: Why the NPT Works", May 2015, Global Policy, Available online at https://web.archive.org/web/20170710230609/https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/14/05/2015/pride-diplomats-why-npt-works)
The review of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) this month is a once
AND
disclosure, the NPT will continue to make the world a safer place. | 851,721 |
364,833 | 328,425 | JANFEB - AC - IndoPak War v3 | ===Plan===
====Plan – the Republic of India and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan ought to eliminate their nuclear arsenals.====
Qurat-Ul-Ain 18 ~~Mastoor Qurat-ul-ain is a PhD candidate at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies (DSS) at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad, Pakistan. She received her MPhil degree in International Relations from the same university.~~ "The Case for Nuclear Disarmament in South Asia – South Asian Voices," South Asian Voices, https://southasianvoices.org/nuclear-disarmament-in-south-asia/ 4-25-2018 RE
Disarmament: The Way Forward
Ultimately, deterrence puts both South Asian nuclear neighbors
AND
but globally. Without disarmament, prolonged stability will only be an illusion.
===Adv – IndoPak War – Medium===
====IndoPak war escalates and goes nuclear – only elimination of arsenals checks:====
Top of Form
Bottom of Form
====First, preemptive counterforce strike – India would do it despite NFU but Pakistan considers it too====
Krzyzaniak 19 ~~John Krzyzaniak is an associate editor at the Bulletin of the Atomic
AND
; India will look for better ways to find and target those weapons.
====Second, aggression – new unbalance and uncertainty, arms races, and international actors can't check====
MacDonald 19 ~~Myra, South Asian specialist, journalist and author of two books on India and Pakistan.~~ "India and Pakistan enter a new, dangerous era," POLITICO, https://www.politico.eu/article/india-and-pakistan-enter-a-new-dangerous-era-conflict-kashmir/ 2-28-2019 RE
Ever since India and Pakistan held nuclear tests in 1998, relations have been guided
AND
and dangerous era in their relations at a time of massive global change.
====Third, terrorism – major retaliatory strikes, hardline nationalism, and Pakistan's inability to counter the Indian army make nuclear escalation inevitable====
Ayoob 18 ~~Mohammed Ayoob is senior fellow at the Center for Global Policy in Washington, DC, and University Distinguished Professor Emeritus of International Relations at Michigan State University.~~ "India and Pakistan: Inching Toward Their Final War?" National Interest. March 14, 2018. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/india-pakistan-inching-toward-their-final-war-24902?page=02C1 TG
However, it seems that the logic of this deterrence is fast eroding. Attacks
AND
4, 2003, is designed to inflict unacceptable damage on the enemy.
====Fourth, perception – Pakistani belief that India will first strike and Indian overconfidence triggers escalation====
Clary and Narang 19 ~~Christopher Clary was a Research Fellow at the International Security Project/Project on Managing the Atom. Political Science professor at SUNY Albany. Country director for South Asian affairs in Office of the Secretary of Defense. He focuses on South Asia, International Security and Defense, and Nuclear Issues. PhD in Political Science from MIT. MA in National Security Affairs from Naval Postgraduate School. BA in History and International Studies from Wichita State University. Vipin Narang was a Research Fellow at the International Security Project/Project on Managing the Atom. Professor of Political Science at MIT and part of MITs Security Studies Program. He focuses on South Asia and Nuclear Proliferation. PhD in Government from Harvard. BS in chemical engineering from Stanford. MA in Phil with distinction in IR from Oxford. International Security is America's leading peer-reviewed journal of security affairs. It provides sophisticated analyses of contemporary, theoretical, and historical security issues. International Security is edited at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and is published by The MIT Press.~~ "India's New Nuclear Thinking: Counterforce, Crisis, and Consequences." Harvard's Kennedy School, Belfer Center. May 24, 2019. https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/indias-new-nuclear-thinking-counterforce-crises-and-consequences TG
The February crisis represents the first ever use of airpower by a nuclear-armed
AND
Delhi, and the world, in an incredibly dangerous and destabilizing position.
====Fifth, nuclear submarines – strategic ambiguity, weak communication, and devolution of command exponentially increases risk of miscalc====
Hundley 18 ~~Tom Hundley is a senior editor at the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting. He writes for a bunch of news websites.~~ "India and Pakistan are quietly making nuclear war more likely." Vox. April 4, 2018. https://www.vox.com/2018/4/2/17096566/pakistan-india-nuclear-war-submarine-enemies TG
Pakistan says its decision to add nuclear weapons to its navy is a direct response
AND
senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi think tank.
====Nuclear war between India and Pakistan destroys the world====
Johnson 19 ~~Scott K Johnson is an educator and recovering hydrogeologist who has been covering the geosciences for Ars since 2011.~~ "Misery of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan would be global." Ars Technica. October 4, 2019. https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/10/misery-of-a-nuclear-war-between-india-and-pakistan-would-be-global/ TG
**this is about/cites the Toon study
The catastrophe would not be
AND
worldwide and mass starvation, as well as severe disruption to natural ecosystems."
====Extinction – nuke war fallout creates Ice Age and mass starvation ====
Steven Starr 15. "Nuclear War: An Unrecognized Mass Extinction Event Waiting To Happen." Ratical. March 2015. https://ratical.org/radiation/NuclearExtinction/StevenStarr022815.html TG
A war fought with 21st century strategic nuclear weapons would be more than just a
AND
the operational and deployed nuclear arsenals, will leave the Earth essentially uninhabitable.
====Even limited nuclear war immediately kills hundreds of millions in one week====
Toon et al 19 ~~Owen B. Toon, PhD, Physics at Cornell; Charles G. Bardeen, Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research; Alan Robock, Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick; Lili Xia, Federation of American Scientists; Hans Kristensen, Natural Resources Defense Council; Matthew McKinzie, Department of Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder; R. J. Peterson, School of Earth, Environmental, and Marine Sciences, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley; Cheryl S. Harrison, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder; Nicole S. Lovenduski , Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research; and Richard P. Turco, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles~~ "Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe," Science Advances, https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/10/eaay5478 Science Advances 02 Oct 2019: Vol. 5, no. 10 RE
Regional nuclear war casualty estimates. Even one nuclear weapon explosion in a city can
AND
by exposure to this radioactive material within a few days of the explosions. | 851,652 |
364,834 | 328,461 | 2 - Prose PIK | ====We endorse the aff through prose, rather than poetry. ====
====Prefer prose over poetry for two reasons:====
====Poetry's emphasis on the sound and symbolism of words obscures meaning by de-emphasizing and even removing the contextual connections of the words. Given that the purpose of the performance is to send a message, that's a huge problem for the aff. Edmund Burke writes====
~~Edmund Burke (1729–1797). On the Sublime and Beautiful. The Harvard Classics. 1909–14., The Common Effects of Poetry, Not by Raising Ideas of Things~~
THE COMMON notion of the power of poetry and eloquence, as well as that
AND
the sound, without any annexed notion, continues to operate as before.
====The creativity of poetry feeds into a capitalist system, re-affirming harmful and oppressive value structures. Haiven 12====
~~PRIVATIZING CREATIVITY: THE RUSE OF CREATIVE CAPITALISM 4 POSTED BY MAX HAIVEN - OCTOBER 10, 2012 - FEATURES, POLICY~~
Who can hate creativity? Who would want less of it? No one,
AND
an individualized thing, the "private property" of each isolated person.
====The emotional benefits of poetry don't outweigh:====
Even if poetry is more emotionally stimulating than prose, if the message can't be understood than there's no call to action for the emotion to power.
Emotional benefits of poetry are non-unique—prose tells a story and can put the listener in the shoes of the protagonist. That creates an emotional response. | 851,693 |
364,835 | 328,548 | 1 - Theory Hedge | stolen from Joanne Park
====No 1AR Theory—-====
====1~~ The 2NR must overcover theory since they get 3 minute 2ar collapse on one of the layers and persuasiveness advantage of a 3 minute 2ar ====
====2~~ Responses to my counter interp will be new which means 1ar theory necessitates intervention—-outweighs because it makes the decision arbitrary====
====3~~ I only have one chance to respond after it is introduced while they have two chances====
====4~~ Deters the 1NC from checking abuse out of fear for 1AR meta-theory, which destroys me since it's also preclusive. Turns their infinite abuse args.====
====5~~ Resolvability double bind—either you automatically accept 2AR responses to 2NR counter-standards which means they always win since I can't answer those responses, or you have to intervene to determine the credence you give those 2AR responses, which makes it irresolvable and unfair.====
====6~~ Reject infinite abuse claims—a~~ spikes solve—there are only so many theoretical issues anyway, b~~ infinite abuse doesn't exist since there are a finite number of rounds, c~~ if I win I can't engage in 1AR theory then you could never check infinite abuse since we can't use your shells to determine what's abusive====
====Condo is good====
====1~~ Strat skew—-condo is key to 2NR strat because it allows the neg to check back aff's infinite prep—-neg could never win because the aff would just dump offense on a single neg layer for 4 minutes. ====
====2~~ Ground—-condo lets the neg test the aff from multiple perspectives without having to go for every one of them in the 2NR, key to generating offense against the aff since I wouldn't have enough time to defend them otherwise.====
====3~~ Negating's harder—-1ar sandbags key distinctions, aff gets plan choice, first and last word, advantage areas, lit bias, infinite prep time, our ground is reactionary and the neg is getting wrecked on this topic with 2 disads and 0 impact scenarios—- multiple options key to recover from strategic tricks especially in-round====
====4~~ Topic education—-promotes offense that's unique the plan and encourages more innovative arguments—-debaters are risk-averse and without condo they'd just read to strategies they're comfortable with.====
====And, condo means you should judge kick the counterplan if they win a permutation—-the squo is always a logical option and you shouldn't vote aff if the squo is better.====
====Condo PICs are also good====
====1~~ Any reason all forms of nuclear weapons are bad is a disad to the counterplan and the status quo—you just have to strategically write your aff and it's absurd to say we steal the whole thing—means no skew because you can answer both at once—every answer to the CP is also an answer to the squo so there is ZERO RISK condo could be bad.====
====2~~ All counterplans are PICs because they must include all or part of the plan like taking action—that's core neg ground—otherwise we can't test the aff at all and they never have to defend their position or they can read affs that would obviously be solved by other things and it would be illogical to do.====
====3~~ Forcing PICs to be unconditional disincentivizes them at all because most have intentionally small net benefits that couldn't reasonably fill up 7 minutes—PICs are good—they're the only way to check back against unpredictable or narrow affs. I need to be able to moot some aff offense since the aff has frontlines specific to their aff—if I don't moot some of the aff they'll always win substance. Err neg—-it's an aff biased topic because most scholars agree nukes are bad—-absent pics the neg always loses ==== | 851,728 |
364,836 | 328,417 | 1 - Must Have Advocacy | Interp: the neg must have a delineated advocacy text in the 1NC.
Violation: they didn’t
1 shiftiness – idk if they defend the squo, some counterplan, or anything else – it makes being aff impossible cuz I can’t compare 2 worlds when the neg can just say they don’t defend that to no link offense
2 reciprocity – it’s irreciprocal because they can test my aff and read plan flaw but I can’t challenge their advocacy since idk what it is or read reciprocal advocacy flaw – that’s key to 1 to 1 ballot access | 851,643 |
364,837 | 328,437 | 1 - Full Text Bad | ====A~~ Interpretation: If debaters disclose full text, they must not post the full text of the cards in the cite box, but must upload an open source document with the full text of their cards. To clarify, you don't have to disclose highlighting or underlining, you just need an open source document with minimally the full, un-underlined text of cards====
====B~~ Violation: screenshots====
====C~~ Standards====
====1~~ Pre-round prep: prep becomes atrocious when you don't make your tags bold and just throw up massive amounts of text on the wiki page which makes it nearly impossible to locate certain arguments. ====
====Discourages tricks—you can just hide a bunch of blippy arguments in your massive amounts of useless text which is prevented if tags are easy to sort out and you're more up front about your arguments. ====
====Their model is awful because it's extremely difficult to determine when a position stops and starts.====
====Also key for disability inclusion because people with dyslexia struggle to read through long blocks of text—outweighs accessibility is a multiplier for their impacts====
====Key to education since we aren't able to engage your arguments properly since you've intentionally made your wiki page a mess.====
====2~~ NDCA rules: see the screenshot – checks reasonability since its predictable ==== | 851,680 |
364,838 | 328,392 | 0 - Note - Method FW Underview Stuff | All of my K method, theory underview, and FW stuff for util affs will be on each open source doc since it changes too much b/w rounds to disclose in cite boxes. Advantages and plans (and non-util affs) will all be in cite boxes. | 851,606 |
364,839 | 328,470 | NOVDEC - CP - ICJ | ====Text: The United Nations General Assembly should request that the International Court of Justice issue an advisory opinion on whether the United States ought to eliminate subsidies for fossil fuels on the basis that they exacerbate greenhouse gas emissions. ====
====The ICJ will rule in favor of ending subsidies for fossil fuels because they exacerbate emissions—past precedent, broad interpretation of human rights, and lower court decisions prove====
**Snape and Hunter 19** (William John Snape III, law professors at American U) 03/01/2019, Amicus brief filed by Center for International Environmental Law and Environmental Law Alliance Worldwide—US in support of plaintiffs-appellees in Juliana v. United States http://blogs2.law.columbia.edu/climate-change-litigation/wp-content/uploads/sites/16/case-documents/2019/20190301_docket-18-36082_amicus-brief-7.pdf EE
B. Projected climate change impacts threaten the enjoyment of the right to life and
AND
governmental branches the details of which policies to use to achieve the goals.
====An advisory opinion that articulates particular responsibilities ensures international response – they'll rule in favor of restricting emissions which spurs international response====
**Kysar 12**, Law Prof at Yale (Douglas, Climate Change and the International court of justice: The Role of Law, environment.yale.edu/envirocenter/files/ICJ_Brochure_Revised_11_22_12_smaller(1).pdf)
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is the "principal judicial organ of
AND
support for climate policies, which will ultimately strengthen the international negotiation process.
====ICJ recognition of transboundary GHG harm drives cooperation for mitigation and adaptation====
**Burleson 14**, Law Prof at London School of Economics (Elizabeth, Inside the System, Outside the Box: Palau's Pursuit of Climate Justice and Security at the United Nations, https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S2047102514000028)
Despite the vested interests of opposing countries such as the US and China, climate
AND
facilitating the implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures by non-state actors.
====Some climate impacts are inevitable even with GHG reduction—adaption stops extinction from disease, resource conflict, and economic collapse====
**El Ashry 14**, Senior Fellow, UN Foundation; Chairman and CEO Emeritus, Global Environment Facility (Mohamed, Adapting to Climate Change: No Time to Waste, www.wri.org/our-work/project/world-resources-report/adapting-climate-change-no-time-waste)
Climate change will bring far-ranging adverse impacts some of which are already being
AND
for the developed world to provide immediate support for adaptation in these countries. | 851,695 |
364,840 | 328,464 | NOVDEC - T - Defend the Topic v2 | ====Interp and Violation: The affirmative must only defend that the United States ought to eliminate subsidies for fossil fuels – they don't.====
Ctrl f ff or subsidy
====Resolved means a policy====
Words and Phrases 64 Words and Phrases Permanent Edition. "Resolved". 1964.
Definition of the word "resolve," given by Webster is "to express an
AND
," which is defined by Bouvier as meaning "to establish by law".
====A fossil fuel subsidy is any government action that does the following ====
**Redman 17** ~~Janet Redman is an associate fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies and the former director of the Climate Policy Program. Janet is currently the U.S. Policy Director at Oil Change International and serves on the board of directors of the Global Alliance for Incinerator Alternatives. MA from Clark University in International Development and Social Change. BS in Enviro Sci from U of Vermont. Oil Change International is a research, communications, and advocacy organization focused on exposing the true costs of fossil fuels and facilitating the coming transition towards clean energy.~~ "DIRTY ENERGY DOMINANCE: DEPENDENT ON DENIAL." Oil Change International. October 2017. http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2017/10/OCI_US-Fossil-Fuel-Subs-2015-16_Final_Oct2017.pdf ED
Broadly speaking, a fossil fuel subsidy is any government action that lowers the cost
AND
fuel use (not included in the total subsidy estimates in this analysis).
====Fossil fuels are coal, oil, gas====
**Min et al 11** (*Tian Chuan Min, Mohammad Iskandar Jobli, Abu Saleh Ahmed, Robert Malong, Masri Zaini, Mohammad Omar Abdullah, Faculty of Engineering Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, **Mohd Narzam Jaffar and Mohamad Abdullah Ali, Sjingkat Power Corp, Min and Jaffar are pursuing postgraduate study at UNIMAS) RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL FROM MICRO HYDRO FOR TECHNO-ECONOMIC UPLIFT – A BRIEF REVIEW, IJRRAS 7 (4) June 2011 EE
Conventional energy sources include fossil fuels, firewood and nuclear power. Fossil fuels refer
AND
compelled the planners and policy makers to look for alternative resouces ~~2~~.
====Subsidies are funds given by the government====
**District Court D of Utah '44 **Central division, District Court D. Kennecott Copper Corporation v. State Tax Com'n, 60 F. Supp. 181 (D. Utah 1944).
The statute itself does not recite, but it does contain the word "subsidy
AND
agencies of the Executive Department to carry out the laws enacted by it.
====Vote neg for fairness – post facto topic adjustment and debates about scholarship breed reactionary generics and allow the aff to cement their infinite prep advantage. They can specialize in 1 area of literature for 4 years which gives them a huge edge over people switching topics every 2 months – this crushes fairness because all neg prep is based on the rez as a stable stasis point and they create a structural disincentive to do research – we lose 90 of negative ground while the aff still gets args like perms which makes being neg impossible.====
====SSD is good – it forces debaters to consider a controversial issue from multiple perspectives. Non-T affs allow individuals to establish their own metrics for what they want to debate leading to ideological dogmatism. Even if they prove the topic is bad, our argument is that the process of preparing and defending proposals is an educational benefit of engaging it. ====
====Small schools disad: under-resourced are most adversely effected by a massive, unpredictable caselist which worsens structural disparities. Inclusion is an independent voter – you can't debate if you can't participate which is a prerequisite to accessing their benefits and ensures everyone gains from the activity.====
====The impact is fairness which outweighs:====
====A~~ Debate is fundamentally a game and some level of competitive equity is necessary to sustain the activity. The only impact to a ballot is deciding who wins – we all hire coaches and pay money to come to tournaments which proves every argument they make concedes the validity of fairness.====
====B~~ Fairness straight turns the aff====
**Bjerg, 11**—Department of Management, Politics and Philosophy, Copenhagen Business School (Ole, Poker: the parody of capitalism pg 190-198)
In order to understand the conceptual difference, it is important to note that when
AND
"The fun of playing," Huizinga notes, "resists all analysis,
====Use competing interps – topicality is question of models of debate which they should have to proactively justify and we'll win reasonability links to our offense.====
====Drop the debater because dropping the arg is severance which moots 7 minutes of 1nc offense====
====No rvis—it's your burden to be fair and T—same reason you don't win for answering inherency or putting defense on a disad. ====
====They can't weigh the case—lack of preround prep means their truth claims are untested which you should presume false—they're also only winning case because we couldn't engage with it ====
====No impact turns—exclusions are inevitable because we only have 45 minutes so it's best to draw those exclusions along reciprocal lines to ensure a role for the negative==== | 851,694 |
364,841 | 328,507 | JANFEB - NC - Logical Consequence | ====The neg burden is to prove the aff is not a logical consequence of the resolution. To clarify, this doesn't contest the aff FW but is just a prerequisite.====
====Prefer:====
====1~~ Text –====
====A~~ Ought is "used to express logical consequence" as defined by Merriam-Webster ====
(http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ought) //Massa
====B~~ Oxford Dictionary defines ought as "used to indicate something that is probable."====
https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/ought //Massa
====2~~ Debatability – a) it focuses debates on empirics about squo trends rather than irresolvable abstract principles that've been argued for years b) moral oughts cannot guide action. ====
Grey 11, Grey, JW. "The Is/Ought Gap: How Do We Get "Ought" from "Is?"" Ethical Realism. N.p., 19 July 2011. Web. 28 Oct. 2015. //Massa
The is/ought gap is a problem in moral philosophy where what is the
AND
arsenic. If it is, we have some more explaining to do.
====3~~ Prior question to argumentation and key to education – It doesn't matter what you're warranting, everything stems from logical reasoning. ====
Muchika 18, Celestine. "The Concept of Logic in Education." Kenyaplex.com, 2018, www.kenyaplex.com/resources/14317-the-concept-of-logic-in-education.aspx. //Massa
Logic refers to the philosophical study of correct reasoning. It deals with principles of
AND
.
5. Helps seek clarity and meaning of concepts and statements.
====4~~ Neg definition choice – the aff should have defined ought in the 1ac cuz it was in the rez so it's predictable contestation, by not doing so they have forfeited their right to read a new definition – kills 1NC strategy since I premised my engagement on a lack of your definition. ====
====Now negate:====
====1~~ Inherency – either a) the aff is non-inherent and you vote neg on presumption or b) it is and it isn't going to happen. ====
====2~~ Zeno's Paradox – to go anywhere, you must go halfway first, and then you must go half of the remaining distance, and half of the remaining distance, and so forth to infinity – thus, motion is impossible because it necessitates traversing an infinite number of spaces in a finite amount of time. If movement is impossible, eliminating nuclear weapons isn't a logical consequence of the rez.==== | 851,710 |
364,842 | 328,532 | JANFEB - K - Settler Colonialism v2 | ====Genocidal settlement is not a one-off event, but a structuring logic of elimination manifested in the reiteration of spatial inhabitance and modes of being that create complicity in genocide. The role of the ballot is to center indigenous scholarship and resistance.====
Mark Rifkin 14 ~~Associate Professor of English and WGS @ UNC-Greensboro~~ 'Settler Common Sense: Queerness and Everyday Colonialism in the American Renaissance,' pp. 7-10, 2014. Recut TG
If nineteenth-century American literary studies tends to focus on the ways Indians enter
AND
through which U.S. settler colonialism enacts itself " (xix).
====Extinction impacts are fabricated by the settler death drive at the expense of indigenous life. Settlers have a psychological investment in imagining the end of the world to create a sense of white vulnerability at the expense of enacting decolonization. ====
Dalley 16 Dalley, Hamish. ~~Daemen College, Amherst, NY, USA – teaches postcolonial literature and ecocriticism~~. "The deaths of settler colonialism: extinction as a metaphor of decolonization in contemporary settler literature." Settler Colonial Studies. 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/2201473X.2016.1238160 TG
Settlers love to contemplate the possibility of their own extinction; to read many contemporary
AND
how there is more to settler-colonial extinction narratives than bad faith.
====The only alternative is refusal. ====
**Simpson 16 **(Audra, August 2016, Kahnawake Mohawks, Associate Professor of Anthropology, Consent's Revenge." Cultural Anthropology 31, no. 3 (2016): 326–333. https://doi.org/10.14506/ca31.3.02, JKS) ty NW
What is it in the way that we imagine the political that might demand or
AND
to make the practice of ethnography itself a refusal in time with theirs.
====Settler colonialism is constitutive of all geopolitics at a global level. The US serves as the foundational architect for global violence, which makes the alternative a prior question.====
**Cornellier and Griffiths 16 **(Bruno Cornellier, Department of English, University of Winnipeg, Manitoba, and Michael R. Griffiths, School of the Arts, English and Media, University of Wollongong, (2016) Globalizing unsettlement: an introduction, Settler Colonial Studies, 6:4, 305-316, DOI: 10.1080/2201473X.2015.1090522, JKS) ty NW
This issue of Settler Colonial Studies marks the attempt to think the global adjacent to
AND
liberal logics are used to conceal new and incipient modes of dispossession globally. | 851,723 |
364,843 | 328,515 | JANFEB - CP - Israel First Strike | ====CP Text: Israel ought to counterforce first-strike Iran.====
====War inevitable – that's their second scenario – but the CP is better.====
====Israel will crush====
Tom Rogan, 6-8-2018, ~~commentary writer for the Washington Examiner and a senior fellow with the Steamboat Institute. Among others, he has previously written for National Review, The Telegraph, and The Guardian. He moderates The McLaughlin Group. Educated in the United Kingdom, Tom is a U.S. citizen with a British accent!~~ "How Israel would defeat Iran in a war," Washington Examiner, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/how-israel-would-defeat-iran-in-a-war RE
-has A2 Strait of Hormuzr and sleeper cells
This week, Newsweek ran
AND
Israel would win a war with Iran. And it wouldn't be close.
====Strikes effectively destroy Iranian nuclear capabilities====
Ilan Jonas, 7-17-2018, ~~the chief executive of Prime Source, a Tel Aviv-based political risk consultancy, and was chief of staff to former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni.~~ "If Iran Gets Back to Nukes, Israel Is Better Prepared to Strike," Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-07-17/if-iran-gets-back-to-nukes-israel-is-ready-to-strike RE
Today, things are very different: Israel is better positioned in every way to
AND
, make Israel's preparedness significantly higher than it was a few years ago. | 851,718 |
364,844 | 328,543 | 2 - F Word K | ====The link is they used the "f" word in the tag about rainforests in part 3====
====Several impacts:====
====1~~ The "f" word is rooted in patriarchy – it symbolizes a violent attack====
Schwyzer: Schwyzer, Hugo ~~History Professor, Berkeley~~ "'Penetrade' v. 'Engulf' and the multiple meanings of the 'f' word: A Note on Feminist Language." November 2009. RP
There's a pause at this point. Here's the problem: long before most kids
AND
with you right now!") but not, not, not, both.
====2~~ Use of this term associates anger with sexuality which entrenches hegemonic masculinity – shapes our understandings and turns case====
Schwyzer: Schwyzer, Hugo ~~History Professor, Berkeley~~ "'Penetrade' v. 'Engulf' and the multiple meanings of the 'f' word: A Note on Feminist Language." November 2009. RP
Rage and lust are both normal human experiences; we will get angry and we
AND
images in our heads, in our culture, and in our lives.
====Reps are a voting issue – examining representations is key since they influence our thought process and are a prerequisite to effective policy. ====
Bleiker 03: **Bleiker, Roland. "Discourse and human agency." Contemporary Political Theory2.1 (2003): 25-47.**
'It is within discourse,' one of Foucault's much rehearsed passages (
AND
saturated with reason that their emergence out of unreason thereby becomes improbable.' | 851,726 |
364,845 | 328,426 | JANFEB - AC - IndoPak Terrorism | ===Adv – Terrorism===
====High probability of nuclear terrorism in Pakistan – past attacks and insider help prove====
Shapoo 17 ~~Sajid Farid Shapoo has MA in International Affairs from Columbia with specialization in International Security Policy and the ME. PhD candidate in Security Studies at Princeton's Woodrow Wilson School. Taught some classes on terrorism at Columbia and City University of New York. Highly decorated Indian Police Service officer, two-star general with 20 years of senior experience in counterterrorism. Supervised investigations related to Mumbai Terror Attacks, Patna serial blasts, Bodh Gaya blasts, and more.~~ "Terrorist Threats to Pakistan's Tactical Nuclear Weapons: A Clear and Present Danger." Small Wars Journal. Early 2017. https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/terrorist-threats-to-pakistanE28099s-tactical-nuclear-weapons-a-clear-and-present-danger TG
The possible catastrophic scenario of the acquisition of a nuclear weapon by a terrorist organization
AND
terrorist cocktail is the most dangerous and credible threat to Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
====Indian nuclear terrorism is possible too – previous thefts and low security allow even an attempt to escalate====
Haegeland 16 ~~Hannah E. Haegeland is a Research Analyst in Stimson's South Asia Program working on nuclear security, crisis escalation and management, and regional politics. Haegeland has published analysis in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the National Interest and numerous other publications.~~ "India's Nuclear Dangers." Foreign Policy. March 31, 2016. https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/31/indias-nuclear-dangers/ TG
The upcoming Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) – the final such summit of Obama's
AND
from Sandia, NTI, NPS, IPCS, IDSA, and CLAWS.)
====Terrorists get and detonate nuclear weapons – they have means, motive, and opportunity – most recent and predictive evidence that takes into account technological advances – extinction====
Bunn, Roth and Tobey 19 – Matthew Bunn is a Professor of Practice at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, and the faculty leader of the Project on Managing the Atom. Nickolas Roth is a Research Associate at the Belfer Center's Project on Managing the Atom. William H. Tobey is a Senior Fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School. ("Revitalizing Nuclear Security in an Era of Uncertainty", Harvard Belfer Center for International Affairs, Jan 2019, https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/matthew_bunn/files/bunn_revitalizing_nuclear_security_in_an_era_of_uncertainty_2019.pdf)
The risk that terrorists could get and use a nuclear bomb—turning the heart
AND
this uncertain future, continuous and determined efforts to improve security remain essential. | 851,659 |
364,846 | 378,950 | Jan2020 Topic Link to our Folder | Jan2020 Topic Link to our Folder:
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1HnhUU1Ish2h41-zNr3vh0YZRW7EkHJYz?usp=sharing | 903,885 |
364,847 | 378,952 | Contact Info | Hi, I'm Jonathan! Attached are my Facebook and gmail accounts. Reach out with any questions/concerns before or after round (Messenger preferred).
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100014045790788
Email: [email protected]
What's the difference between a bum on a tricycle and a well-dressed person on a bicycle?
Attire! | 903,887 |
364,848 | 378,956 | Venezuelan Sanctions C1 Economic Shutdown, C2 Health Crisis | open source, cards cut below | 903,893 |
364,849 | 378,969 | Disclosure | Interpretation: At TOC, All debaters must disclose all previously read positions on the topic on their PF NDCA wiki page prior to the round | 903,906 |
364,850 | 378,968 | Spec | A. Interpretation: The first speaking team must specify what constitutes “nearly all” in the context of “military presence” | 903,906 |
364,851 | 379,083 | Aff | Vanessa Harmon, Homeland and Security Affairs ,December 2018, https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749
Despite the wide ... researchers have considered.
Vanessa Harmon, Homeland and Security Affairs ,December 2018, https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14749
Between 2001 to … effective preventative programs.
CTC 2009, https://ctc.usma.edu/shifting-trends-in-suicide-attacks/
Iraq accounts for ... in March 2003.
Pape 10 (Robert A. Pape, 10-18-2010 "It's the Occupation, Stupid", Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2010/10/18/its-the-occupation-stupid/)
More than 95 … 2004 to 2009.
"Terrorism - Our World in Data", 2019, https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism
Close to 56 … were from terrorism.11
Abdullah Hamidaddin (PhD candidate in King’s College London), Al Arabiya, 9-20-2013 "A window for Iranian-Gulf relations?" https://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2013/09/20/A-window-for-Iranian-Gulf-relations-Accessed4-3-2020 // RZ
the improvement of ... Saudi-Iranian normalization.
Karen Elliott House, Wall Street Journal, "Rethinking Saudi Arabia - WSJ", November 30, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/rethinking-saudi-arabia-1543595189
Still more worrisome ...have prevented that.)
J. Matthew McInnis, American Enterprise Institute, "Iran’s Strategic Thinking", May 2015, https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Irans-Strategic-Thinking.pdf
Iran is a...and doctrine writings.
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Rice University Baker Institute for Public Policy, February 2020, “REBALANCING REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE PERSIAN GULF”, https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/files/de9f09e6/cme-pub-persiangulf-022420.pdf Accessed 4-11-20
within the GCC .. became glaringly obvious.23
Kirsten Fontenrose, Atlantic Council, "Gulf partners could give Iran and the US a way out of their collision course - Atlantic Council", March 31, 2020, https://atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/gulf-partners-could-give-iran-and-the-us-a-way-out-of-their-collision-course/
With interests on … the United States.
Velasco, Juliana. “Regional Organizations And e Durability Of Peace.” Electronic Theses and Dissertations, University of Central Florida, 2013, file:///Users/karsenwahal/Downloads/Chap-UCF-card.pdf.
when accounting for ... times more likely.
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Rice University Baker Institute for Public Policy, February 2020, “REBALANCING REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE PERSIAN GULF”, https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/files/de9f09e6/cme-pub-persiangulf-022420.pdf
the concerns many ... in the region.”
Hunzeker
https://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/15415/1/HunzekerLanoszkaParameters.pdf
ground troops signal ... kill and win.
Beckley 15, https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/ISEC_a_00197
Firm security commitments ...of moral hazard.
Benson, Brett. “Unpacking Alliances: Deterrent and Compellent Alliances and Their Relationship with Conflict, 1816~-~-2000.” Vanderbilt University, Oct. 2011, my.vanderbilt.edu/brettbenson/files/2012/04/jop11.pdf.
unconditional compellent alliances... as previously thought.
Trita Parsi, Foreign Policy, "As the Assassination of Iran’s Suleimani Shows, the United States Is the Main Spoiler of Peace in the Middle East", January 6, 2020, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/06/the-middle-east-is-more-stable-when-the-united-states-stays-away/
Yet when U.S. … bemoaned these developments.
Wood 12 Reed Wood, professor of politics and global studies, “Armed intervention and civilian victimization in intrastate conflicts”, Journal of Peace Research, http://www.public.asu.edu/~rmwood4/woodkathgent_jpr.pdf
examining the effect ... a 40 increase.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/20/world/middleeast/iran-saudi-proxy-war.html
These dynamics, scholars ...just getting started.
REED 15 http://www.kathleengallaghercunningham.com/uploads/4/5/5/8/45589607/jcr_finalversion_wnames.pdf
Specifically, more fungible ... given to rebels.
NRC 20 (Nrc, 1-8-2020 "US-Iran tension threatens lifeline to millions across the Middle East", ReliefWeb, https://reliefweb.int/report/world/us-iran-tension-threatens-lifeline-millions-across-middle-east)
Tens of millions ...Occupied Palestinian Territories. | 904,043 |
364,852 | 379,194 | Blake Disclosure Policy | Blake Disclosure Policy | 904,236 |
364,853 | 328,509 | JANFEB - NC - Logical Consequence v2 | ====Permissibility negates: A) negate means "to deny the truth of," so the neg can disprove the existence of an obligation through permissibility since the 1ac must defend an active obligation to act, B) lack of obligation proves the resolution false – the res specifically says you have to prove obligation, you cannot be obligated and lack an obligation simultaneously ====
====Presume neg: A) We assume statements to be false until proven true. That's why we don't believe in alternate realities or conspiracy theories. The lack of a reason something is false does not me it is assumed to be true. B) Statements are more often false then true. If I say this pen is red, I can only prove it true in one way by demonstrating that it is indeed red, where I can prove it false in an infinite amount of ways. ====
====The neg burden is to prove the aff is not a logical consequence of the resolution. To clarify, this doesn't contest the aff FW but is just a prerequisite.====
Top of Form
Bottom of Form
====Prefer:====
====1~~ Text –====
====A~~ Ought is "used to express logical consequence" as defined by Merriam-Webster ====
(http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ought) //Massa
====B~~ Oxford Dictionary defines ought as "used to indicate something that is probable."====
https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/ought //Massa
====2~~ Debatability – a) it focuses debates on empirics about squo trends rather than irresolvable abstract principles that've been argued for years b) moral oughts cannot guide action. ====
Grey 11, Grey, JW. "The Is/Ought Gap: How Do We Get "Ought" from "Is?"" Ethical Realism. N.p., 19 July 2011. Web. 28 Oct. 2015. //Massa
The is/ought gap is a problem in moral philosophy where what is the
AND
arsenic. If it is, we have some more explaining to do.
====3~~ Neg definition choice – the aff should have defined ought in the 1ac cuz it was in the rez so it's predictable contestation, by not doing so they have forfeited their right to read a new definition – kills 1NC strategy since I premised my engagement on a lack of your definition. ====
====Now negate:====
====1~~ Inherency – either a) the aff is non-inherent and you vote neg on presumption or b) it is and it isn't going to happen. ====
====2~~ Zeno's Paradox – to go anywhere, you must go halfway first, and then you must go half of the remaining distance, and half of the remaining distance, and so forth to infinity – thus, motion is impossible because it necessitates traversing an infinite number of spaces in a finite amount of time. If movement is impossible, eliminating nuclear weapons isn't a logical consequence of the rez.==== | 851,711 |
364,854 | 328,518 | JANFEB - DA - IndoPak Deterrence | ====India and Pakistan are bound in stable nuclear deterrence networks – elimination causes rapid escalation.====
**Trenin 19** (Dmitri, PhD @ Russian Academy of Sciences and director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, 3-21-2019, "Strategic Stability in the Changing World," Carnegie Moscow Center, https://carnegie.ru/2019/03/21/strategic-stability-in-changing-world-pub-78650) AG
Reliable communication lines between the major powers can prevent armed conflicts or stop their escalation
AND
top-level political dialogue may further strengthen regional stability in South Asia.
====Nuclear deterrence has singlehandedly prevented Indo-Pak conventional war – elimination would spell disaster.====
**Hagerty 20** (Devin T., PhD Polisci @ UPenn and Prof. Polisci @ UMaryland, "Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence Stability in South Asia," Springer, https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-21398-5
Overall, after nearly 20 years of an overtly nuclear South Asia, there was
AND
, and on Mumbai, as well as many other less serious attacks."
====Conventional wars are more common and more catastrophic than nuclear war.====
Johnson '99, Robert Johnson, Strategic Planning, "Abolishing Nuclear Weapons: The Key to Global Security?" CSIS Prospectus, Fall 1999, http://www.csis.org/pubs/prospectus/99FallJohnson.html, recut RE
Conventional wars are no doubt less horrible and less destabilizing to civilization than nuclear wars
AND
ev is 4 years older than ours and not specific to India and Pakistan | 851,719 |
364,855 | 328,517 | JANFEB - CP - NFU Dealert | ====Counterplan: Israel ought to adopt an operational no first use policy and de-alert nuclear weapons, including at least separating warheads from missiles and removing all batteries that operate ballistic missiles====
====NFU creates a new regime of nuclear restraint- solves the aff====
**Tannenwald, 18** — Director, International Relations Brown, Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University ~~Nina, "The Great Unraveling: The Future of the Nuclear Normative Order," MEETING THE CHALLENGES OF THE NEW NUCLEAR AGE: EMERGING RISKS AND DECLINING NORMS IN THE AGE OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION AND CHANGING NUCLEAR DOCTRINES, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2018, p. 27-29~~
Renewing a Regime of Nuclear Restraint
Lawrence Freedman has worried that the disarmament norm
AND
Nevertheless, it would represent an initial important declaratory statement of nuclear restraint.
====De-alerting eliminates risk of accidents====
**Steinbruner, 9** — University of Maryland Center for International and Security Studies director ~~Dr. John, Arms Control Association board chair, "Reframing De-Alert," 2009, http://www.ewi.info/system/files/Steinbruner.pdf~~
Most individuals not embedded in the contemporary security bureaucracies and even some who are readily
AND
force configuration would also establish much higher standards of protection against unauthorized access. | 851,718 |
364,856 | 328,554 | JANFEB - CP - ICJ | ====CP text: States with the exception of India and Pakistan should eliminate their nuclear arsenals. The International Criminal Court ought to find India and Pakistan's nuclear weapons program as in violation of international law.====
====Solves – precedent ====
Panda 16 Ankit Panda ~~Ankit Panda is a senior editor at The Diplomat and director of research for Diplomat Risk Intelligence~~, October 06, 2016, "No Luck for Marshall Islands in Nuclear Disarmament Case Against India, Pakistan, and UK," The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2016/10/no-luck-for-marshall-islands-in-nuclear-disarmament-case-against-india-pakistan-and-uk/ // ash
On Wednesday, October 5, the International Court of Justice decided against proceeding with
AND
of particular tension between the two South Asian nuclear giants is also notable.) | 851,729 |
364,857 | 328,457 | 2 - Wounded Attachments | ====Their attachment to the past reinscribes the suffering they attempt to solve for because their movement necessitates that trauma to sustain their identity. This locks identity into a frame of impotence resulting in an endless cycle of revenge and ressentiment ====
**Brown 93 **(Wendy L. Brown is a professor of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. Wounded Attachments, Political Theory, Vol. 21, No. 3 (Aug., 1993), accessed via sage ~~pgs.402-405~~)
Enter politicized identity, now conceivable in part as both product of and "reaction
AND
has been done, he is an angry spectator of all that is past | 851,692 |
364,858 | 328,463 | 2 - Cap K - Baudrillard | ====The aff's rejection of the specific details of political engagement is not radical but continues the prevailing mode of leftist cynicism that eviscerates our ability to construct alternatives to political domination====
**Burgum 15** (Samuel, PhD candidate in Sociology at the University of Warwick and has been conducting research with Occupy London since 2012, "The branding of the left: between spectacle and passivity in an era of cynicism," Journal for Cultural Research, Volume 19, Issue 3)
Rather than the Situationist spectacle, then, I argue that the reason those on
AND
that real and authentic (unbranded) struggle and therefore denying it indefinitely.
====Baudrillard's nihilistic understanding of class struggle actively ensures that we will leave the Earth a smoldering pile of ash – it's reductionist, ignores history, is just him rambling, and misunderstands failure – don't let the 1AR's edgy rhetoric distract you from the fact that they justify an absurd amount of material violence. ====
**Zavarzadeh 95** Mas'ud ~~educated in Middle Eastern, European, and American universities and teaches critical theory at Syracuse University. He has written on postmodern critical theory and is the author of Mythopoeic Reality and coeditor of Theory, Pedagogy, Politics~~ "Post-Ality: Marxism and Postmodernism" 1995. IB
Two questions can be considered under this heading: (a) Does Baudrillard present
AND
b) Baudrillard's alternatives to organized struggle against capital are hyperconformism and defiance.
====Capitalism causes war, violence, environmental destruction and extinction.====
**Robinson 18** (William I., Prof. of Sociology, Global and International Studies, and Latin American Studies, @ UC-Santa Barbara, "Accumulation Crisis and Global Police State" Critical Sociology) RE
Each major episode of crisis in the world capitalist system has presented the potential for
AND
the peoples in these spaces must be repressed by the global police state.
====The alternative — we should reject the Aff as a withdrawal from the logic of capitalism– this is the kind of demand that challenges overarching structures. ====
Adrian Johnston 4 ~~Dept of Philosophy, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque~~, "The Cynic's Fetish: Slavoj Z?iz?ek and the Dynamics of Belief", ?International Journal of Zizek Studies, Volume 1, 2004, BE
Perhaps the absence of a detailed practical roadmap in Z?iz?ek's political writings isn't a major
AND
comforting fiction ("Capitalist commodity fetishism or the truth? I choose fetishism."). | 851,694 |
364,859 | 328,472 | 1 - New Affs Bad | ====Interpretation—the aff must disclose the plan text 30 minutes before the round====
====Violation—they didn't—we have screenshots====
====Standard is prep and clash—two internal links—a) neg prep—5 minutes of prep is not enough to put together a coherent 1nc or update generics—30 minutes is necessary to learn a little about the affirmative and piece together what 1nc positions apply and cut and research their applications to the affirmative b) aff quality—plan text disclosure discourages cheap shot affs. If the aff isn't inherent or easily defeated by 20 minutes of research, the case should lose—this will answer the 1ar's claim about innovation—with 30 minutes of prep, there's still an incentive to find a new strategic, well justified aff, but no incentive to cut a horrible, incoherent aff that the neg can't check against the broader literature.==== | 851,696 |
364,860 | 328,406 | 1 - Meta Ethics Bad | Interp: debaters must not read a meta ethic.
Violation: they did
Standard is infinite regress – they can read a meta ethic, a meta meta ethic, and a meta meta meta ethic which makes it impossible to resolve the framework debate – resolvability is a voter since judges need to be able to resolve rounds | 851,623 |
364,861 | 328,551 | JANFEB - NC - Logical Consequence v3 | ====Permissibility negates: a) negate means "to deny the truth of," so the neg can disprove an obligation through permissibility since the 1ac must defend an active obligation to act, b) lack of obligation proves the res false – it says you have to prove obligation, but you cannot be obligated and lack obligation simultaneously ====
====Presumption negates: a) we assume statements false until proven true which is why we don't believe in alternate realities or conspiracy theories, b) statements are more often false then true – if I say this pen is red, I can only prove it true by showing its red, but I can prove it false in infinite ways====
====The neg burden is to prove the aff is not a logical consequence of the resolution. ====
Top of Form
Bottom of Form
====Prefer:====
====1~~ Text –====
====A~~ Ought is "used to express logical consequence" as defined by Merriam-Webster ====
(http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ought) //Massa
====B~~ Oxford Dictionary defines ought as "used to indicate something that is probable."====
https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/ought //Massa
====2~~ Debatability – a) it focuses on empirical trends rather than irresolvable abstract principles that've been argued for years, b) moral oughts can't guide action. ====
Grey 11, Grey, JW. "The Is/Ought Gap: How Do We Get "Ought" from "Is?"" Ethical Realism. N.p., 19 July 2011. Web. 28 Oct. 2015. //Massa
The is/ought gap is a problem in moral philosophy where what is the
AND
arsenic. If it is, we have some more explaining to do.
====Now negate:====
====1~~ Inherency – either a) the aff is non-inherent and you vote neg on presumption, or b) it is and won't happen for the reasons it hasn't already.====
====2~~ Zeno's Paradox – to go anywhere, you must go halfway first, and then half the remaining distance, and half the remaining distance, and so on to infinity – thus, motion fails cuz it requires traversing infinite spaces in finite time. If movement fails, eliminating nuclear weapons isn't a logical consequence of the rez.==== | 851,728 |
364,862 | 328,547 | JANFEB - DA - US 5G | ====5G bills have cleared the House and will pass the Senate now====
**Birnbaum 1/8 **(Emily Birnbaum, 1-8-2020, Writer @ The Hill, "House passes bills to gain upper hand in race to 5G," https://thehill.com/policy/technology/477429-house-passes-bills-to-gain-upper-hand-in-race-to-5g, JKS)
The House on Wednesday passed a slew of bills aimed at giving the U.
AND
the Senate, increasing the likelihood that it will reach the president's desk.
====The plan will ignite extended debate in the Senate and delay passage due the unexpected nature of the aff====
**Heitshusen 17** (Valerie, 4-10-17, Specialist on Congress and the Legislative Process, 'The Legislative Process on the Senate Floor: An Introduction", https://www.senate.gov/CRSpubs/5c970bdd-ed33-446c-a646-cda331d7b108.pdf, JKS)
One way in which the possibility of extended debate affects the Senate's procedures is in
AND
such a unanimous consent request if there is a hold on a bill.
====5G is the linchpin of China's rise—the U.S. is falling behind====
**Herman 19 **(Arthur L. Herman, 9-24-2019, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, is the author of 1917: Lenin, Wilson, and the Birth of the New World Disorder. "America Needs to Win the Battle for 5G Supremacy," National Review, https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/09/5g-technology-us-must-win-battle-to-set-standards/, JKS)
The struggle for global supremacy between the United States and China has come to rest
AND
carrier using Huawei technology), including many leading U.S. allies.
====US tech lead is key—-Chinese tech lead escalates flashpoints and crushes US leadership —- causes US-China conventional war ====
**Heath and Thompson, 18 **Timothy R. Heath is a RAND Senior Defense and International Analyst, William R. Thompson is a Political Science Professor Emeritus at Indiana University, "Avoiding U.S.-China Competition is Futile: Why the Best Option is to manage Strategic Rivalry," Asia Policy; Vol 13 No 2; pg 91-120; April 2018.
This article argues that the structural drivers of U.S.-China competition are
AND
is for the people of Asia to uphold the security of Asia."38 | 851,727 |
364,863 | 328,533 | JANFEB - CP - North Korea | ====CP Text: All states with the exception of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea should eliminate their nuclear arsenals.==== | 851,723 |
364,864 | 328,537 | JANFEB - CP - CPGS | ====The United States should:====
~-~-Deploy CPGS
~-~-Propose cooperation with states capable of observing CPGS launch including:
(i) Inspections of CPGS weapons to verify that their warheads are non-nuclear;
(ii) Authenticated surveillance of each CPGS weapon to demonstrate that, following an inspection, a verified conventional warhead is not swapped out for another; and that, in the event of a launch, it is a non-nuclear weapon that has been used; and
(iii) Notifications by the United States of any CPGS launch.
**Acton PhD 13** Theoretical Physics from Cambridge, member of the Trilateral Commission on Challenges to Deep Cuts and was co-chair of the Next Generation Working Group on U.S.-Russian Arms Control, senior associate of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “Silver Bullet? Asking the Right Questions About Conventional Prompt Global Strike” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2013 RE
As described in the 2008 NRC report, cooperative measures could enable any
AND
Russia, and hopefully China, which combinations would be useful. | 851,724 |
364,865 | 328,439 | 2 - Settler PIK | ====We endorse the entirety of the 1AC minus their use and framing of "settler" colonialism. ====
====The underpinnings of "settler" colonialism theory are rooted in reconciliation and implies that the nation-state is no longer colonial. We should hold onto other framings like imperialism to understand violence against indigenous peoples. ====
**Barker 11**
**(Joanna Barker, , California-born Lenape (citizen of the Delaware Tribe of Indians). Professor of American Indian Studies at San Francisco State University, 2-13-11, Why "Settler Colonialism" Isn't Exactly Right, https://tequilasovereign.com/2011/02/28/why-settler-colonialism-isnt-exactly-right/, JKS)**
In numerous books and articles published in between these definitions (1999 and 2010),
AND
force or in relation to indigenous peoples within its various kinds of borders.
====Framing colonialism without the baggage of "settler" solves the aff====
**Barker 11**
**(Joanne Barker, California-born Lenape (citizen of the Delaware Tribe of Indians). Professor of American Indian Studies at San Francisco State University.3-15-11, More Musings on Why "Settler Colonialism" Doesn't Work (For Me), https://tequilasovereign.com/2011/03/16/more-musings-on-why-settler-colonialism-doesnt-work-for-me/, JKS)**
The point in the United States, as an imperial power, is that the
AND
. Albeit still colonial, but ultimately reconciled within itself to its ideals.
====This isn't a dirty word PIC that tries to skate aff discussion but about our conceptual frame of the structure of the imperial state and which lens you should endorse – all of their aff framing proves our analytics lenses are important==== | 851,680 |
364,866 | 328,441 | 2 - Cap K - Generic | ====Their fatalism towards institutions as intrinsically dangerous is weaponized by neoliberals for privatization, and makes institutions more insidious by choosing the moral purity of refusal over challenging the Right====
**Gray, 18 **Paul Christopher Gray, Faculty Member in Labour Studies, Brock University, "From the Streets to the State: Changing the World by Taking Power," SUNY Press (2018)
Fourth, we neglect the persisting importance of the state. Widespread rejections of the
AND
similar fate. They can oppose capitalism, but not transcend it.5
====The aff's rejection of the specific details of political engagement is not radical but continues the prevailing mode of leftist cynicism that eviscerates our ability to construct alternatives to political domination====
**Burgum 15** (Samuel, PhD candidate in Sociology at the University of Warwick and has been conducting research with Occupy London since 2012, "The branding of the left: between spectacle and passivity in an era of cynicism," Journal for Cultural Research, Volume 19, Issue 3)
Rather than the Situationist spectacle, then, I argue that the reason those on
AND
"ourselves" as "always morally correct but never politically responsible" (
====Capitalism causes war, violence, environmental destruction and extinction.====
**Robinson 18** (William I., Prof. of Sociology, Global and International Studies, and Latin American Studies, @ UC-Santa Barbara, "Accumulation Crisis and Global Police State" Critical Sociology) RE
Each major episode of crisis in the world capitalist system has presented the potential for
AND
the peoples in these spaces must be repressed by the global police state.
====The alternative is to build class solidarity around a new socialist movement focused on making concrete demands and progress that can transform American society. That vision is necessary to propel movements to challenge Trump, dismantle violent political formations, and save lives. ====
**Schwartz and Sunkara 17** ~~August 1, 2017; JOSEPH M. SCHWARTZ (Joseph M. Schwartz is the national vice-chair of the Democratic Socialists of America, and professor of political science at Temple) and BHASKAR SUNKARA (Bhaskar Sunkara is an American political writer, founding editor and publisher of Jacobin magazine and the publisher of Catalyst: A Journal of Theory and Strategy. He is a former vice-chair of the Democratic Socialists of America); "What Should Socialists Do?"; https://jacobinmag.com/2017/08/socialist-left-democratic-socialists-america-dsa; //BWSWJ~~
The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) has 25,000 members. Its
AND
If we take advantage of it, we can make our own history.
====No permutation====
**Naschek 18** (Melissa - member of the Democratic Socialists of America, "The Identity Mistake," 8/28/18, https://www.jacobinmag.com/2018/08/mistaken-identity-asaid-haider-review-identity-politics)
-mutually exclusive theories of power/world, lead to different conclusions about political
AND
claiming to overcome identity politics but leading us down the same dead end. | 851,682 |
364,867 | 328,428 | 1 - Weigh T vs K | Interp – if the neg reads both theory/T and a K, they must explicitly say which comes first in the 1NC or CX.
Violation:
Prefer:
1. Clash – Letting them sandbag weighing means the 2NR will always choose the most undercovered layer, while my interp forces you to commit in the 1NC and clash throughout the debate. It ensures debaters can’t just shifting out of something by going for a different layer.
2. Reciprocity – I have to weigh in the dark in the 1AR before I know what the 2AR strat is, while they can sandbag weighing until the 2NR when they already know what they’re going for. Judges reject new 2AR weighing as they think it’s too new, so the CI doesn’t solve. | 851,668 |
364,868 | 328,445 | 1 - Disclosure General | ====TLDR; disclose in cite boxes with first and last couple words, open source with round reports, don't put 'analytic', and don't be sketchy pre-round====
Interpretation: Debaters must disclose all constructive positions on open source with highlighting on the 2019-20 NDCA LD wiki after the round in which they read them.
Interpretation: For each position on their corresponding 2019-20 NDCA LD wiki page, debaters must disclose a summary of each analytic argument in their cases.
Interpretation: Debaters must disclose all possible disclosure theory interps on the 2019-20 NDCA LD wiki at least 30 minutes before the round.
Interpretation: Debaters must disclose round reports on the 2019-20 NDCA LD wiki for every round they have debated this season. Round reports disclose which positions (AC, NC, K, T, Theory, etc.) were read/gone for in every speech.
Interpretation: If debaters disclose full text, they must not post the full text of the cards in the cite box, but must upload an open source document with the full text of their cards.
Interpretation: Debaters must disclose all constructive positions in cite boxes on the 2019-20 NDCA LD wiki. To clarify, they can’t put “see open source.”
Interpretation: The affirmative must, upon flipping for sides, tell the negative what specific affirmative position they will be reading, within ten minutes of flipping for sides.
Interpretation: The affirmative must, upon the release of tournament pairings, tell the negative what specific affirmative position they will be reading, within ten minutes. | 851,684 |
364,869 | 378,951 | Feb2020 topic Link to our Folder | Feb2020 topic Link to our Folder: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1t0d4qF7q1iLIi5ZsQX-Tr-gmKkl5b1AJ | 903,886 |
364,870 | 378,953 | Contact Info | Hi, I'm Jonathan! Attached are my Facebook and gmail accounts. Reach out with any questions/concerns before or after round (Messenger preferred).
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100014045790788
Email: [email protected]
Did you hear about that claustrophobic astronaut?
He just needed a little more space. | 903,888 |
364,871 | 378,954 | 00 - Contact Info | email: [email protected] or [email protected] | 903,889 |
364,872 | 328,516 | JANFEB - DA - Israel Aggression | ====Israeli power concession results in Middle Eastern nuclear war—statements, history, posturing prove====
Doreen Horschig 19, ~~PhD Candidate in Security Studies, University of Central Florida~~ 6-20-2019, "Israel could strike first as tensions with Iran flare," Conversation, https://theconversation.com/israel-could-strike-first-as-tensions-with-iran-flare-119146 ED
Iran shot down a U.S. drone on June 19, further escalating
AND
is any guide, Israel may strike Iran while the world quietly watches.
====Causes middle east prolif cascade and accidental nuclear war.====
**Edelman 11** (Jan/Feb, Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and Former U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran)
There is, however, at least one state that could receive significant outside support
AND
Middle East could lead to a new Great Game, with unpredictable consequences. | 851,718 |
364,873 | 328,519 | JANFEB - CP - IndoPak TNWs | ====CP Text: India and Pakistan should eliminate their nuclear arsenals except for Pakistan's tactical nuclear weapons.====
====TNWs good—deter conventional war cuz India knows they can't counterforce or massively retaliate====
Ahmed 16 ~~Mansoor, 2015–2016 Stanton Nuclear Security Junior Faculty Fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.~~ "Pakistan's Tactical Nuclear Weapons and Their Impact on Stability," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, https://carnegieendowment.org/2016/06/30/pakistan-s-tactical-nuclear-weapons-and-their-impact-on-stability-pub-63911 6-30-2016 RE
HOW TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS IMPACT STRATEGIC STABILITY
The operational complexities of TNW deployment are
AND
of the primary objectives that Pakistani decisionmakers hoped to achieve by developing TNWs.
====Sufficiency framing—TNWs kill 20 people—large-scale conventional war outweighs====
Kanwal 16 ~~Brig.Gurmeet Kanwal (Retd.) is Distinguished Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi.~~, "Pakistan's Tactical Nuclear Warheads and India's Nuclear Doctrine," https://idsa.in/issuebrief/pakistan-tactical-nuclear-warheads-and-india-nuclear-doctrine_gkanwal_210916 9-21-2016 RE
Given the low casualty rates and minimal material damage if TNWs are employed on the
AND
, hence, a bridge head is a much less likely target.1 | 851,719 |
364,874 | 328,505 | JANFEB - CP - Asteroids | ====States ought to: ====
~-~-Establish a policy of using nuclear ICBMs to defend against asteroids, and eliminate all other nuclear weapons
~-~-Cooperatively reduce their nuclear ICBM arsenals down to the minimum amount needed for asteroid deflection
~-~-Submit to international monitoring by the IAEA for compliance
~-~-Eliminate all other nuclear arsenals, research, and development
~-~-Ratify a nuclear no first use policy against states
====Scrapping ICBMs makes asteroid deflection impossible – they're the only thing that can do it====
Amanda **Buchanan 16**, Assistant Astronomer @ Primland, "Is Blowing up an Asteroid with a Bomb Really a Good Idea?", Futurism, https://futurism.com/blowing-asteroid-bomb-really-good-idea
To clarify, ICBMs are the long-range nukes that the USSR and USA
AND
On the other hand, ICBMs can be launched at a moment's notice.
====Nuclear deflection against asteroids is key —- extinction ====
Cooper 13 Necia Grant Cooper, Los Alamos National Lab. "Killing Killer Asteroids" https://www.lanl.gov/science/NSS/pdf/NSS_April_2013.pdf
Whew! We can all temporarily breathe a sigh of relief. However, the
AND
from the point of detonation through the asteroid. | 851,710 |
364,875 | 328,465 | 2 - Liberalism | ====Liberalism is both inevitable and good – its self-correcting mechanisms maintain global stability, facilitate international cooperation to resolve intractable problems, and raise global standards of living while constantly correcting for failure. Any other system risks global catastrophe and can't be effectuated anyway given liberalism's entrenched nature.====
Daniel **Deudney and **G. John **Ikenberry '18**, *Deudney: Associate Professor of political science, international relations and political theory at Johns Hopkins University, received the Alumni Distinguished Teaching Award at Johns Hopkins University, former senior research fellow at the TransAtlantic Academy at the German Marshall Fund, **Ikenberry: Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, Co-Director of Princeton's Center for International Security Studies, served as a member of the Policy Planning Staff in 1991-92, as a member of an advisory group at the State Department in 2003-04, and as a member of the Council on Foreign Relations Task Force on U.S.-European relations, "Liberal World: The Resilient Order," Foreign Affairs 2018, Issue 4, pgs. 18-22
In many respects, today's liberal democratic malaise is a byproduct of the liberal world
AND
the age of global interdependence, even a realist must be an internationalist. | 851,694 |
364,876 | 328,459 | 1 - Open Source v2 | ====Interpretation: Debaters must disclose all constructive positions on open source with highlighting on the 2019-20 NDCA LD wiki after the round in which they read them. ====
====Violation – I've attached the doc they uploaded to the email chain – there's no formatting just full text====
====1~~ Evidence ethics – open source is the only way to verify before round that cards aren't miscut – otherwise you could have highlighted or bracketed unethically. That's a voter – maintaining ethical ev practices is key to being good academics and we should be able to verify you didn't cheat ==== | 851,693 |
364,877 | 328,446 | 1 - See OS Bad | ====A Interpretation: Debaters must disclose all constructive positions in cite boxes on the 2019-20 NDCA LD wiki. To clarify, they can't say check open source.====
**Debatecoaches no date**
====Violation: see the screenshot in the doc====
====Standards:====
====1~~ Pre-round prep: prep becomes atrocious when you make people sift through 20 word docs to figure out which links you're reading and which impacts to prep. Discourages tricks—you can just hide a bunch of blippy arguments. Also key for inclusion since disadvantaged people have computers more prone to lag and even 3 or 4 can crash the program for them—outweighs accessibility is a multiplier for their impacts. Disclosing in cite boxes solves—people can quickly get a summary of your position and go to open source if they need more information====
====2~~ wiki rules—the wiki tells you to disclose like everyone else. Freeloading is bad and o/w—it cultivates passive citizenship and turns any hope of actually solving their impacts which is a voter for education.==== | 851,685 |
364,878 | 378,975 | SPEC SHELL | A. Interp - The affirmative must specify how they plan on implementing a universal basic income | 903,911 |
364,879 | 378,980 | Spec | A. Interpretation: The affirmative constructive must specify what constitutes “nearly all” in the context of “military presence”
Terry ’98 Terry, Don. "Bilingual Education Lives After All." The New York Times, 3 October 1998, https://www.nytimes.com/1998/10/03/us/bilingual-education-lives-after-all.html. JR
The law does
AND
over the spectrum.''
Hasler 11 - Jeffery Hasler, Small War Journal, 2011 “Defining War” https://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/SOFdefinitions.pdf Accessed 1/27/19 SAO
The modern world
AND
is not a definition | 903,916 |
364,880 | 328,546 | JANFEB - CP - US Turkey TNWs | ====Counterplan Text: The United States should eliminate its nuclear arsenal except for its tactical nuclear weapons in the Republic of Turkey.====
====Eliminating the arsenal requires elimination of US tactical nuclear weapons from Turkey- that disrupts NATO relations and causes Turkish prolif====
Pomper 10/23 http://theconversation.com/why-the-us-has-nuclear-weapons-in-turkey-and-may-try-to-put-the-bombs-away-125477 Why the US has nuclear weapons in Turkey – and may try to put the bombs away October 23, 2019 4.35pm EDT Author Miles A. Pomper- Senior Fellow, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Middlebury //qlsms
During the Cold War, the U.S. stationed B-61 nuclear
AND
bombs out could encourage Ergodan to try to turn that bluster into reality.
====That escalates to nuclear war====
Eric Edelman 11, Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and Former U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran
There is, however, at least one state that could receive significant outside support
AND
or nuclear material and that nonstate actors could gain access to these items. | 851,727 |
364,881 | 328,549 | JANFEB - CP - Indian Fracking | ====Counterplan: The Republic of India should eliminate their nuclear arsenals, except those used in nuclear fracking and replace all feasible instances of hydraulic fracking with nuclear fracking. The Islamic Republic of Pakistan should eliminate their nuclear arsenals.====
====Eliminate means complete removal ====
**Patent Trial and Appeal Board 18 **(2018 Pat. App. LEXIS 6128 (P.T.A.B. August 2, 2018))
Claim 1 requires, inter alia, that the glass sheet comprise "less than
AND
"eliminate") to mean the complete removal of bubbles from the glass.
====Nuclear fracking is better because it doesn't contaminate groundwater – also solves nuclear waste disposal.====
**McMahon 14 **~~Jeff McMahon, (I've covered the energy and environment beat since 1985, when I discovered my college was discarding radioactive waste in a dumpster. That story ran in the Arizona Republic, and I have chased electrons and pollutants ever since, for dailies in Arizona and California, for alternative weeklies including New Times and Newcity, for online innovators such as The Weather Channel's Forecast Earth project, The New York Times Company's LifeWire syndicate, and True/Slant—the prototype for the new Forbes. I've wandered far afield—to cover the counterrevolutionary war in Nicaragua, the World Series Earthquake in San Francisco, the UN Climate Change Conferences in Copenhagen and Paris. I also teach journalism, argument and scientific writing at the University of Chicago.) "U.S. Experimented With Nuclear Fracking" Forbes, 1-29-2014, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2014/01/29/u-s-experimented-with-nuclear-fracking/~~#68e863f5c9c7, DOA:1-12-2020 // WWBW~~
At the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco, Leonid Germanovich
AND
sites into adjacent groundwater. So far, they say, no leaks.
====Hydraulic fracking contaminates drinking water.====
**Vaidyanathan 16 **~~Gayathri Vaidyanathan, () "Fracking Can Contaminate Drinking Water" Scientific American, 4-4-2016, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fracking-can-contaminate-drinking-water/, DOA:1-12-2020 // WWBW~~
Former EPA scientist Dominic DiGiulio never gave up. Eight years ago, people in
AND
dots need to be connected here, monitoring wells need to be installed."
====Indian fracking now====
**Rosencranz and Janghu 18** (Armin and Shubham, The Hindu Times, The Risks in Fracking https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-risks-in-fracking/article23650260.ece)
Many scholars believe that fossil fuel energy will decline markedly by 2050. Such conclusions
AND
Countries like Germany and France and subnational governments like Scotland have banned fracking. | 851,728 |
364,882 | 328,473 | 3 - FW - List of Util Warrants | ==specific warrants for a round are on each doc but disclosing like 10 util fw's is...prob not worth lol. this will just be a list of all the warrants ive read==
====The standard is maximizing expected wellbeing. Prefer:====
==== Revisionary intuitionism is reliable and leads to util====
Our intuitions are cognitively biased b/c we can't understand large numbers – ppl are likelier to pay more money to save one vividly described hurt child than 2 random adults - we should re conceptualize our thinking to account for this. If we keep revising our intuitions, then we decide to maximize benefits.
Can't use abstract moral principles since they're useless and don't guide action - ethics must guide action or humans won't create them - link turns NC since people won't follow it - bad meta ethic
ELIEZER **YUDKOWSKY 8**, "The "Intuitions" Behind "Utilitarianism"", 1-28-2008, http://lesswrong.com/lw/n9/the_intuitions_behind_utilitarianism/
I haven't said much about metaethics - the nature of morality - because that has
AND
, because there are not many utilitarians, and many things left undone.
==== Parameters – framework debate defines "ought"—that means it's also a topicality issue so we have to theoretically defend our interpretation. Prefer:====
====A~~ Ground – every impact functions under util whereas other ethics flow to one side exclusively. Kills fairness since we both need arguments to win and====
====B~~ Topic lit – most articles are written through the lens of util because they're crafted for policymakers and the general public who take consequences to be important, not philosophy majors. Key to fairness and education – the lit is where we do research and determines how we engage in the round.====
==== Use epistemic modesty for evaluating the framework debate: that means compare the probability of the framework times the magnitude of the impact under a framework. Prefer: ====
====A~~ Substantively true since it maximizes the probability of achieving net most moral value—beating a framework acts as mitigation to their impacts but the strength of that mitigation is contingent. ====
====B~~ Clash—disincentives debaters from going all in for framework which means we get the ideal balance between topic ed and phil ed—it's important to talk about contention-level offense ====
====C~~ Real world: in real life people constantly change their minds about credence between frameworks and compare and weigh those harms. ====
==== Reductionism – there's no continuous identity—we can split the brain and create two separate spheres of consciousness.====
Parfit 84 ~~Derek. "Reasons and Persons" 1984 brackets for gender~~
Some recent medical cases provide striking evidence in favour of the Reductionist View. Human
AND
, and can receive two different answers written by this person's two hands.
====This means util is the only coherent moral theory. A. Since a there is not continuous persons, distribution of goods among people is irrelevant, so we just maximize benefits among people. B. It is impossible to violate a constraint since identity is in constant flux. Anything such as a promise a made a year ago is no long my promise, etc.====
==== Moral uncertainty means we should prevent extinction. Bostrom 12 ====
~~Nick Bostrom. Faculty of Philosophy and Oxford Martin School University of Oxford. "Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority." Global Policy (2012)~~
These reflections on moral uncertainty suggest an alternative, complementary way of looking at existential
AND
of value. To do this, we must prevent any existential catastrophe.
====Actor specificity:====
====A Aggregation – every policy benefits some and harms others, which also means side constraints freeze action.====
====B No intent-foresight distinction – If we foresee a consequence, then it becomes part of our deliberation which makes it intrinsic to our action since we intend it to happen – example==== | 851,696 |
364,883 | 328,529 | 2 - Presumption vs Antiblackness | ====Presumption====
====A~~ Pessimism posits a diagnosis but offers no strategy for dealing with it. Their theory devolves into pointing out a problem and telling Black people to sit back and die ====
**Wilderson and Howard 10** Frank B. Wilderson is a distinguished film critic, professor at UC Irvine, and author of Red, White, andBlack, among others. Percy Howard is a writer and interviewer for Necessary Angel. "Frank B. Wilderson, 'Wallowing in the contradictions', Part 1" Necessary Angel. July 9, 2010. https://percy3.wordpress.com/2010/07/09/frank-b-wilderson-E2809Cwallowing-in-the-contradictionsE2809D-part-1/
PH As a Psychotherapist, I was very interested to see your contrasting Frantz Fanon
AND
and as Fanon does), but it won't lead us to a cure.
====B~~ Systems – the 1AC argues that material events and institutions create the social realities that replicate violence but ceding the state refuses to alter these conditions====
====C~~ Spillover – the aff assumes that its advocacy of a certain affect is sufficient to result in the liberation of the flesh BUT they are missing a robust internal link to solving oppression inside OR outside the round==== | 851,722 |
364,884 | 328,412 | 1 - Truth Testing Bad | Interpretation: all arguments related to affirming or negating the plan made must be consistent with a comparative worlds paradigm
Violation: they read truth-testing
Standards:
1 Ground and strat skew – their interp imposes an absolute proof on us – gives them functionally infinite ground through skeptical arguments and logical tautologies – comparative worlds is a 1:1 burden structure that makes debate better and reciprocal.
2 Advocacy skills – their interp leads to defensive offense so they never have an active advocacy – voter since we need to be advocate for solutions to messed up things in the world | 851,634 |
364,885 | 328,467 | 1 - New Affs Bad v2 | ====Interpretation—the aff must disclose the plan text before the round. To clarify, disclosure can occur on the wiki or over message.====
====Violation—they didn't====
====First is prep and clash—two internal links—a) neg prep—4 minutes of prep is not enough to put together a coherent 1nc or update generics—30 minutes is necessary to learn a little about the affirmative and piece together what 1nc positions apply and cut and research their applications to the affirmative b) aff quality—plan text disclosure discourages cheap shot affs. If the aff isn't inherent or easily defeated by 20 minutes of research, it should lose—this will answer the 1ar's claim about innovation—with 30 minutes of prep, there's still an incentive to find a new strategic, well justified aff, but no incentive to cut a horrible, incoherent aff that the neg can't check against the broader literature.====
====Second is academic integrity – disclosing new affs is key to ensure that evidence isn't miscut – 4 minutes of prep isn't enough especially since I need to save some for the 2nr and also construct a 1nc==== | 851,695 |
364,886 | 328,498 | 1 - Meta Ethics Bad | ====Interp: debaters must not read a meta ethic.====
====Violation: they did====
====Standard is infinite regress – they can read a meta ethic, a meta meta ethic, and a meta meta meta ethic which makes it impossible to resolve the framework debate – resolvability is a voter since judges need to be able to resolve rounds==== | 851,706 |
364,887 | 328,418 | 1 - Brackets | Interp: debaters may not insert brackets containing their own language into evidence unless it is to remove gendered or offensive language.
Violation: they did
Standard is academic ethics – changing the words of your authors lets you change the entire meaning of the article – bracketing in the word “not” or using definite language like “will” instead of “could” changes the argument and its credibility. Academic ethics is a voter a) what we gain from debate means nothing if we’re academically dishonest and have no cred, b) the purpose of debate is to prepare debaters for the real world, and academic dishonesty is punished irl | 851,643 |
364,888 | 328,485 | NOVDEC - CP - Phase Out | ====Text: The United States should:====
====Announce that it will phase out all fossil fuel subsidies by 2025;====
====Gradually phase out fossil fuels, eliminating a fifth of 2019 subsidies each year after 2019.====
====Solves the case but avoids perception links====
**UN Environment 18** () Fossil Fuel Subsidies for an Inclusive Green Economy, Policy Brief, January 2018, http://www.greenfiscalpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Policy-brief-FFS-2018.pdf EE
Reforming fossil fuel subsidies has proven to be challenging. Fossil fuel subsidies are difficult
AND
sector is appropriated in the budget (Arlinghaus and van Dender, 2017).
====Sunset advocate – spurs debate====
**Aldy 17** (Joseph E., Associate Professor of Public Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School) Federal Energy Related Tax Policy and Its Effects on Markets, Prices, and Consumers, Congressional Testimony, 03/29/2017 https://media.rff.org/documents/RFF-CT-Aldy-HouseEnergy26Commerce-March2017.pdf EE
In contrast to many energy tax provisions, these fossil fuel tax expenditures do not
AND
these tax expenditures in order to motivate such a debate over their merits. | 851,699 |
364,889 | 378,979 | Disclosure | Interp: At TOC bid tournaments, All debaters must disclose all previously read positions on the topic on their PF NDCA wiki page prior to the round | 903,915 |
364,890 | 379,074 | 0- Contact Info | Zachary Domsch-
1. Phone Number (512-761-0802)
2. Email: [email protected] | 904,030 |
364,891 | 379,056 | 0- Disclosure interp 2 | A. Interpretation: Debaters competing at TOC-bidding tournaments and round robins must disclose all previously read positions and off-case arguments on the 2019-2020 NDCA PF Wiki, at least 15 minutes before round. | 904,015 |
364,892 | 379,050 | 1 - Septober Plano Overleveraging Tariffs Neg | Matt Schrader, 8-10-2018, "Domestic Criticism May Signal Shrunken Belt and Road Ambitions," Jamestown, https://jamestown.org/program/domestic-criticism-may-signal-china-scaling-back-its-bri-ambitions/
In the past two weeks, obvious signs of discontent with CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping’s ambitious policy agenda have emerged into public view. (Willy Lam explores these signs and their policy implications in “Xi’s Grip on Authority Loosens Amid Trade War Policy Paralysis”, also in this issue.) Intellectuals have launched brave attacks on Xi on a number of fronts, from his unprecedented assault on intellectual freedom, to his decision to name himself president for life by amending the PRC constitution to remove presidential term limits (China Brief, March 5). One of these criticisms is Xi’s excessive ‘foreign aid’ to countries in Africa and elsewhere. This is an obvious reference to Xi Jinping’s ambitious, globe-spanning Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI is the hallmark of Xi Jinping’s foreign policy—indeed, as the scope of the BRI has expanded, the two have become increasingly difficult to distinguish. Although a Western observer might dismiss a few professors’ unhappiness with the BRI as ivory tower grumbling, PRC academic critiques are worth noting, since outspoken academics are often the channel through which other PRC societal elites communicate their dissatisfaction with the CCP. In the past, these channels have also served to telegraph important shifts in CCP policy. The public airing of such criticisms could indicate the existence of a emerging consensus that Beijing should scale back its BRI ambitions. And in fact, BRI lending has already begun to shrink, decreasingly dramatically since 2015. Were it to decrease further, it would have important strategic repercussions throughout the Eurasian landmass and Africa. “Flashy” Spending Abroad On July 20, Sun Wenguang, a retired professor of physics at Shandong University, penned an open letter criticizing China for “offering almost CNY 400 billion in aid to 166 countries, and sending 600,000 aid workers” (Canyuwang, July 20). On August 1, as he expanded on his concerns in an interview with the US-based Voice of America, police forced their way into Sun’s apartment. As he was taken away, Sun could be heard saying, “Listen to what I say, is it wrong? Regular people are poor, let’s not throw our money away in Africa … throwing money around like this doesn’t do any good for our country or our society.” (VOA Youtube, August 2) Although Sun has long been a government gadfly, he is also long retired, and resides far from the center of power in Beijing. But similar criticisms have found voice much closer to the corridors of power. On July 24, Xu Zhangrun (???), a professor at Beijing’s elite Tsinghua University, published an extraordinary essay entitled “Imminent Fears, Imminent Hopes” (??????????). Among many other criticisms, Xu excoriates Xi’s government for its profligacy abroad, saying: At the recent China-Arab States Cooperation Forum on 10 July 2018, Xi Jinping announced that twenty billion US dollars would be made available for ‘Dedicated Reconstruction Projects’ in the Arab world, adding that China will investigate offering a further one billion yuan to support social stability efforts in the Persian Gulf. Everyone knows full well that the Gulf States are literally oozing with wealth. Why is China, a country with over one hundred million people who are still living below the poverty line, playing at being the flashy big-spender? (China Heritage, August 1) Observers steeped in Western coverage of Belt and Road might find these criticisms surprising. Western press outlets have tended to cover the BRI as a triumphant PRC bid to remake global trade in its image. Only very recently has Western coverage turned skeptical. But the political sensitivity of the BRI means that information related to it is tightly controlled inside China; as a result, Western analysis of BRI is largely irrelevant to the debate inside China. Domestic criticism of Belt and Road is drawn from a very different, distinctly Chinese context. In the BRI, domestic critics see an extension of the CCP’s predilection for grand spending that disproportionately benefits connected insiders. As they see it, these loss-making “face projects” (????) are conducted with limited transparency and oversight, and are primarily meant to reflect glory upon one’s superiors (and help underlings curry favor). The braver of Xi’s critics have thus taken to describing his foreign policy as dasabi (???), or “throwing money around” (China Digital Times). The phrase, which censors have largely erased from China’s internet, is also a homonym for an extremely vulgar term used to insult someone’s intelligence. Criticism vs. Reality This jaundiced view of official spending may be why domestic critics of BRI sometimes categorize BRI investment—which is supposed to be primarily of a commercial nature—as “foreign aid” (????). In reality, the “dedicated reconstruction projects” Xu Zhangrun referenced in his diatribe are not aid; they will be probably be financed by concessional loans meant to “drive economies by reviving industry” (?????????; FinanceWorld, July 11). BRI loans are intended to be paid back, and despite numerous articles in Western publications about BRI-induced ‘debt traps’, analysts who track the initiative’s progress have found that only about 14 of BRI projects to date have run into problems (RWR Advisory, July 9). This is not a point that domestic critics of BRI typically cite. Censorship may again be the culprit. Although an 86 success rate for BRI projects is certainly better than some Western observers might guess, the PRC government may not eager for it to be widely known at home that China’s banks have tens of billions of dollars tied up in problematic projects abroad. Indeed, the PRC’s policymaking apparatus appears to have already responded to concerns of BRI overreach by adjusting the scale of lending to limit possible financial risk. BRI lending by major PRC banks has dropped by 89 since 2015, and lending by commercial banks—who are dealing with their own financial issues domestically—has ceased almost entirely. Policy banks have also scaled back, despite their status as arms of PRC government policy. Source: RWR Consulting 1 Criticism has still emerged despite the government’s attempts to scale back risk. In this sense, the PRC government appears to be fighting the information and trust deficits engendered by its own censorship apparatus among intellectuals and other critics. Fed a steady diet of information trumpeting BRI moving from triumph to triumph, leery intellectuals remain skeptical. A Less Ambitious BRI? A sustained downturn in BRI lending at the same time that domestic criticism of the initiative emerges into China’s tightly controlled public discourse may indicate the existence of a emerging—and potentially enduring—consensus that Beijing should keep its overseas lending ambitions modest. In Beijing’s chilly intellectual climate, an academic brave enough to plainly state their criticisms typically speaks for many others. In pondering the future of the BRI, it might be instructive to recall a 2012 essay by Deng Yuwen (???), a commentary writer and deputy editor of the Central Party School’s journal, enumerating the ten biggest problems of the Hu Jintao-Wen Jiabao administration 2.
Nikkei Asian Review, 2-15-2019, "Will China let Belt and Road die quietly?," https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Will-China-let-Belt-and-Road-die-quietly
The news for China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been unrelentingly bad. Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia has canceled two mega BRI projects, including a $20 billion railway, citing high costs. Pakistan's new government has called for a review of the crown jewel of BRI ~-~- China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), to which China has committed more than $60 billion in funding. Myanmar's government has just told Beijing that construction of a suspended China-funded hydropower dam would not be allowed to resume. The Maldives, the tiny island nation in the Indian Ocean, is trying to renegotiate down the $3 billion debt ~-~- equal to two thirds of its gross domestic product ~-~- it has borrowed from China to fund BRI projects. But, inside China, it is hard to detect overt signs of any wavering in support for BRI the pronouncements from top Chinese leaders, especially President Xi Jinping. For Xi, BRI's architect, this vast project spanning half the globe with infrastructure links connected to Beijing represents his vision to project Chinese power and influence. But beneath the surface there is growing unease in China about BRI. And rightly so. With the country feeling an economic squeeze, fighting a trade war with the U.S. and facing criticism from nations receiving BRI funds, Chinese skeptics, including academics, economists and business people, of BRI are quietly asking if their government is putting its scarce resources to the right use. To be sure, there are no official announcements that Beijing is about to pare back Xi's BRI dreams. Tight censorship has removed any direct criticisms of BRI from the media. Yet, one can detect tantalizing signs that Beijing is already curtailing BRI, at least rhetorically. The official propaganda machine, cranked to full steam to tout BRI's achievements not too long ago, has turned down the volume these days. In January 2018, the People's Daily, the Communist Party's mouthpiece, carried 20 stories on BRI. In January this year, there were only seven. If we keep track of BRI stories in the official Chinese media in 2019 and compare the coverage with previous years, we should have a clearer picture about where BRI is headed. In all likelihood, we will see a significant decline in the hype Chinese official media outlets devote to BRI. It is also a safe bet that Beijing's funding for BRI will decline measurably this year ~-~- and in the coming years. The economic headwinds against BRI are obvious. For starters, China's external environment has changed almost beyond recognition since Xi rolled out BRI in 2013. At that time, China foreign exchange reserves were approaching $4 trillion. It seemed a brilliant idea to use some of the foreign exchanges to invest in infrastructure. Coupled with the use of Chinese contractors and materials, BRI could also help solve China's problem of excess capacity in its steel, cement, and construction industries. But the world has changed in the last five years. China's economic slowdown has triggered a capital flight, draining more than $1 trillion from its foreign exchange reserves. If we factor in the trade war's impact on Chinese balance of payments in the future, China will unlikely generate sufficient foreign exchange surpluses to finance BRI on the same scale. The tariffs imposed by the U.S. and the uncertainty about U.S.-China commercial relations will significantly reduce Chinese exports to the U.S. and, to a lesser extent, other developed markets. Since China's trade surplus with the U.S. accounts for nearly all its overall current account surplus, a substantial fall in Chinese exports to the U.S. will result in a current-account deficit for China if it cannot offset the shortfall with increased exports to other markets (an impossible feat). China's deteriorating balance of payments will force Beijing to use it foreign exchange reserves mainly to defend its currency, the yuan, and maintain investors' confidence in China's macroeconomic stability. As a result, Beijing will have to review its external commitments carefully. Grandiose projects conceived and launched when it was flush with foreign exchange will be reassessed. Some will have to be curtailed or even abandoned altogether. But the trouble for BRI does not just stem from the near-certainty of China's declining foreign exchange earnings in coming years. On the domestic front, Beijing faces a perfect storm of rising pension costs, slowing economic growth and dwindling tax revenues. The grim fiscal outlook was conveyed with unusual bluntness by the Chinese Minister of Finance at the annual finance conference at the end of December last year. Minister Liu Kun warned, "All levels of the government must lead by tightening their belts and do their utmost to reduce administrative expenses." Shortly after the meeting, Shanghai, the richest city in China, ordered a 5 cut for most departments in 2019. This bout of austerity fever was precipitated by declining fiscal revenue growth and Beijing's decision to cut taxes to stimulate faltering growth. In 2018, the growth of fiscal revenues fell 1.2 percentage points compared with 2017. The fiscal outlook is expected to worsen this year due to tax cuts and slower growth. The biggest hole in Beijing's budget is spending on pensions for a rapidly aging population. The province of Heilongjiang had a net deficit of 23 billion yuan in its pension account as of 2016, and six other provinces, with a combined population of 236 million, were taking in less pension contributions than outlays in 2016. The pension picture for the entire country looks equally grim. According to the Ministry of Finance, the government had to contribute 1.2 trillion yuan in 2017 to fund the shortfalls in pension spending. Some may argue that BRI would be safe from Beijing's budget cutters because it is Xi's top foreign policy priority. But harsh economic reality will present Chinese leaders increasingly unpalatable choices as various demands compete for limited resources. President Xi and his supporters may continue to back BRI. But they must also know that BRI has few domestic supporters and taking money away from Chinese pensioners to build a road to nowhere in a distant land will be a tough sell politically. In what might be an early sign of newfound Chinese parsimony abroad, Beijing has granted cash-strapped Pakistan just $2.5 billion in new loans ~-~- compared to the $6 billion Islamabad reportedly sought. What appears to be happening in Beijing is that while its leaders continue to stand by BRI, Xi's original ambitions are being rolled back out of public view. We should not be surprised if Beijing eventually lets BRI, at least BRI 1.0, die quietly.
Chinese President, xx-xx-xxxx, "“This could be a watershed moment for Italy's China policy”," No Publication, https://www.merics.org/en/china-flash/xi-jinping-heads-to-Europe
“This could be a watershed moment for Italy's China policy” Xi Jinping heads to Europe 2019-03-19 Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected in Europe from March 21 to 26. He will first travel to Italy and then head to Monaco and France. His visit to Italy in particular (March 21 to 24) – the first Chinese state visit to that country in ten years – is causing a stir as the Italian government appears ready to make major concessions to China. According to media reports, the Italian government is set to endorse China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a move that would make Italy the first G7 state to join Xi Jinping’s key foreign policy project. Questions to Lucrezia Poggetti, research associate at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS). Lucrezia Poggetti Analyst The Italian government has sought closer ties with Beijing from the start. Do you consider it likely that Italy will join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – and if so, what is Rome hoping to get out of such a move? The current Italian government has, indeed, adopted a very China-friendly line since it took office at the end of May 2018. This was spearheaded by the Undersecretary of State for Economic Development, Michele Geraci, who set up a “China Task Force” under the Ministry of Economic Development in August last year to seek closer political relations with China in the hope of getting economic opportunities in return. Geraci argues that the signature of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on BRI would help Italian companies increase exports to the Chinese market. In 2018, Italy registered a USD 12.13 billion trade deficit with China. However, the MoU is unlikely to change that. European countries whose trade relations with the Asian giant are more balanced, such as France and Germany, have not signed any BRI endorsements. Those EU member states that have signed up to the BRI in the past, such as Poland and other Eastern European countries, have complained that Beijing’s promises of economic opportunities have largely failed to materialize. Yet despite heated debates within Italian politics, it is very likely that the Italian government will sign the controversial MoU. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte confirmed on Friday March 15 the government’s plans to go ahead with the signature. How important would it be for Beijing if Italy were to sign the BRI MoU? Italy’s signature would give the BRI project a huge boost in legitimacy. Beyond the economics, an Italian endorsement would be politically symbolic for China. Italy would be the first G7 member state and the first EU founding country to sign up to BRI. An endorsement by the third largest economy in the Eurozone would allow Xi Jinping to show domestic audiences that his initiative enjoys a great reputation in Europe and the world, while in fact the BRI faces criticism that it has created debt traps, political dependencies and has failed to meet international standards.
BRI won’t solve overcapacity and hurts China econ in the LT
Zhou, Jiayi. “The Trouble With China’s One Belt One Road Strategy.” The Diplomat. 2015
https://thediplomat.com/2015/06/the-trouble-with-the-chinese-marshall-plan-strategy/
That OBOR is seen as a quick solution to the problem of overcapacity in China is no secret. Chinese analysts have been very openly discussing the OBOR in these terms. For example, He Yafei, currently vice minister for foreign affairs, penned an opinion article last year in which he explicitly mentioned the opportunity to use China’s excess steel and iron for OBOR infrastructure building. For now, though, it is still not entirely clear to what degree domestic low-end industrial production will be used to support the initiative. Challenges in that regard include the difficulties and expenses of transporting bulky and heavy materials abroad. Furthermore, the newly released Action Plan for the OBOR states that “efforts should be made to promote green and low-carbon infrastructure construction.” China’s war on pollution, if it is taken seriously, still commits the country to painful domestic readjustments no matter what companies operating overseas may be involved in. However, a large part of the OBOR will in fact be internally focused. Major infrastructure projects are being planned to connect some of the China’s more remote regions to the wider national and international markets. And while positive in some respects, this again amounts to yet another massive stimulus package for hard industry, and which will only delay the shift to a balanced economy that still needs to take place. Domestic Restructuring and Social Implications Economic restructuring away from export-oriented production and manufacturing would (or will) be painful. Years of artificially supported and credit-fueled growth have entrenched local government interests, revenue channels, jobs, and industries in a way that could be very destabilizing to remedy. Cutting down overcapacity would involve slashing jobs, shutting down plants, and closing factories. And for a country renowned for its long-term thinking, social stability is always the foremost and immediate priority. Statements that slower growth (the “new normal”) is acceptable may largely be about managing expectations; to the extent that it impacts jobs, boosting growth is still of paramount concern to Chinese leaders. And, to be clear, it does impact jobs: the China Labor Bulletin reported earlier this year that worker strikes and labor unrest increased significantly in 2014 compared to the previous year, with the increase linked to the economic slowdown. Given the vast amount of people employed in export-related industries, as well as in hard industrial and infrastructural production (the construction sector alone accounts for over 30 million jobs), boosting export figures and/or buying crucial time for these jobs and livelihoods to be transferred is still of paramount concern to Chinese leaders. In detailing the OBOR, China has in fact clearly stated that it is buying time for domestic consumption to increase at a natural pace. Consumer-led growth will be a long time coming; progress on that front remains “too little and too slow” for China’s economy to depend on it anytime soon. More than kicking the can down the road, though, the OBOR could make problems worse. That is, while it may buy time, this would be at the cost of further subsidizing inefficient (and energy-intensive, high-polluting) SOEs and companies that should have either shrunk or gone under long ago under normal market conditions.
Alice De Jonge, 9-17-2015, "China's grip still tight on state-owned enterprises," Conversation, https://theconversation.com/chinas-grip-still-tight-on-state-owned-enterprises-47478
The words typically used to describe the SOE sector in China are “inefficient”, “bloated”, and “bulky”. The sector has been slimmed down a lot over the past decades, but still comprises 110 conglomerates. SOEs accounting for around 60 of total revenue are overseen by the central government’s State Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. And between 25,000 – 150,000 SOEs (depending on which definition of “state-ownership” is used) are controlled and managed by provincial, municipal and lower levels of government. The larger SOEs maintain monopolies over key sectors of the economy (energy, mining, infrastructure) and smaller SOEs are characterised by low productivity and high debt levels. A lot of the problems and inefficiencies stem from the fact that the interests controlling SOE behaviour are not necessarily aligned with those of the wider economy or society. Time for a clean out Authorities have been consolidating and “cleaning up” SOEs for better resource allocation for a while now. China’s two major bullet train makers completed consolidation in the first half of 2015, while China Railway Corporation recently announced an asset-reorganisation with one of its subsidiaries. Central authorities indicated earlier this year that Beijing would like mergers and acquisitions to result in a figure of around 40 conglomerates under the SASAC. The real challenge will be in getting the Provinces to cooperate in cross-border mergers of provincial and municipal SOE assets. The ambitious Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional integration blueprint provides an important testing ground for getting different localities to cooperate, share and consolidate economic and social planning and resources. Commercial vs ‘social’ Schools, universities, medical goods and service providers, and operators of public utilities (water, sanitation, energy, transport and communications) together form a huge and important part of the Chinese economy. It is important that they be run efficiently, but also important that they fulfil the social purposes for which they exist. Providing equitable access to essential public goods and services means these firms cannot be expected to run on purely commercial considerations. And so the SOE guidelines indicate that SOEs will be categorised as either “commercial” or “public goods and services”, and dealt with accordingly. Commercial SOEs will be encouraged to become leaner, more efficient, and more market-oriented, while “social” SOEs will be encouraged to focus more on the quality of service provision.
Cecilia Joy-Perez,, 3-28-2018, "The Chinese state funds Belt and Road but does not have trillions to spare," AEI, http://www.aei.org/publication/the-chinese-state-funds-belt-and-road-but-does-not-have-trillions-to-spare/
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been primarily about construction rather than investment. State-owned enterprises account for more than 95 percent of the $208 billion in construction projects since 2014. With the BRI focused on developing countries, there is considerable commercial risk. Private Chinese firms have thus been hesitant to take on BRI projects, including investments. Much BRI construction and investment is ultimately financed by China’s foreign exchange reserves. China no longer has money to spare, and the BRI will not hit $1 trillion in value until well into the 2020s. Read the PDF. Introduction The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is characterized as an explosion of Chinese investment in Eurasian and African countries promising deals worth trillions of dollars. This is largely wrong. The BRI is better understood as construction projects worth hundreds of billions of dollars taken on by state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Belief in endless Chinese money notwithstanding, SOEs cannot by themselves deliver a multi-trillion-dollar BRI.1 China Belt and Road Initiative A cargo train is launched to operate on the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) line constructed by the China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) and financed by Chinese government in Kenya’s coastal city of Mombasa, May 30, 2017. Reuters Is the private sector willing to help? Probably not. Private investment in the BRI is rising, but it is still outpaced by SOE investment. BRI construction activity by private Chinese firms is almost nonexistent. With the BRI focused on developing countries, there is considerable commercial risk. SOEs can ignore much of this risk because they do not go bankrupt and usually have access to cheap financing; private firms are not as fortunate. The evidence to date indicates private firms are hesitant to participate, at least using their own funds. If that continues, the BRI will not be nearly as large as some anticipate.2
Ma ‘18: China wins contracts with good loans and “full package deals”
TJ Ma. “Supply and Demand: Understanding Chinese Involvement in Coal Projects Overseas.” Panda Paw Dragon Claw Institute, 31 Oct. 2018, pandapawdragonclaw.blog/2018/10/31/supply-and-demand-understanding-chinese-involvement-in-coal-projects-overseas/. Accessed 3 Sept. 2019.
Japan’s rather high-profile and coordinated activities in Indonesia to promote its coal interest provides a point of reference for Chinese efforts in the same arena. If there is one component of the nebulous Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that is relatively well defined, it is its function as an extension of Chinese industrial policy. The need for many Chinese industrial sectors to find new markets outside their home country is a powerful driver for China’s “Going Out” strategy which predates the BRI for more than a decade. In the specific area of coal power, China, as its neighbor Japan, is keen to see its companies winning lucrative contracts overseas, a need accentuated by a slowing domestic market. According to Prof. Yuan Jiahai, China’s coal power sector is facing a severe overcapacity problem: “failure in power planning” (i.e. not foreseeing slowing electricity demand growth) makes many existing Chinese coal power plants badly under-utilized, spending a good part of the year idling. The situation prompted the Chinese government to apply the brake on new coal power plants, suspending new builds in 15 provinces. But the Chinese companies that over the years have excelled in building CFPPs need jobs. And the unique bond between Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and the state machinery (diplomatic, finance and industrial) makes China particularly well disposed to make concerted efforts to advance the interest of its industries. A 2015 State Council directive on “international industrial capacity sharing” lays out a blueprint for how the government would assist competitive Chinese industries to expand globally. Within its toolbox are instruments such as Chinese policy banks (China Development Bank and the China EXIM Bank) that tie their concessional loans with business deals for Chinese companies; and high-level bilateral government-to-government dialogues that secure “full package” deals for Chinese corporations. Premium Li Keqiang’s “industrial diplomacy” with Kazakhstan is celebrated as the origin of this model. Power plant construction and operation is listed in the directive as one of the priorities for such state support, as it is a sector through which not just Chinese equipment, but also Chinese services and standards, can be exported. And the model plays out in Indonesia’s power market. Shenhua, one of China’s largest coal industry conglomerates, won the contract to build and run the Java-7 coal-fired power plant in Banten, another high efficiency CFPP listed in the CCT roadmap. The Shenhua-led Chinese consortium managed to beat 36 other competitors in the bid, and attributed the success to its premium clean coal technology and “low-cost, tailor-made financing” based on its strategic partner relation with China Development Bank. This may give the impression of a formidable, highly efficient industry-policy complex geared up to take over any country’s power market.
Tanner Greer. "One Belt, One Road, One Big Mistake." Foreign Policy. 18. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/12/06/bri-china-belt-road-initiative-blunder/.
Investment decisions often seem to be driven by geopolitical needs instead of sound financial sense. In South and Southeast Asia expensive port development is an excellent case study. A 2016 CSIS report judged that none of the Indian Ocean port projects funded through the BRI have much hope of financial success. They were likely prioritized for their geopolitical utility. Projects less clearly connected to China’s security needs have more difficulty getting off the ground: the research firm RWR Advisory Group notes that 270 BRI infrastructure projects in the region (or 32 percent of the total value of the whole) have been put on hold because of problems with practicality or financial viability. There is a vast gap between what the Chinese have declared they will spend and what they have actually spent.
Ansar 2019, Oxford University, https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1609/1609.00415.pdf
Generalizing from our sample, evidence suggests that over half the infrastructure investments in China made in the last three decades have been NPV negative. Far from being an engine of economic growth, a typical infrastructure investment has destroyed economic value in China due to poor management of risks that impact cost, time, and benefits.5 We advance: Hypothesis 1. Due to a propensity to cost overruns and benefit shortfalls, the typical infrastructure investment destroys economic value. Policy Proposition 1. Less is more. Policy-makers should only commit scarce public resources to infrastructure alternatives that, even after accounting for potential cost overruns and benefit shortfalls, produce positive economic value. Proponents of infrastructure investments often argue that, even if individual projects such as the YuanMo expressway yield negative NPVs, the benefits of a network will outweigh the cost of building the network. Although an appealing argument, this is unlikely to hold in the real world. First, the business cases of individual infrastructure projects are justified on the basis of their NPV being positive. When the NPV becomes negative in reality, planners go to some length to obfuscate the inconvenient truth—a persistent and insidious feature of infrastructure investments (Wachs, 1989). Second, construction cost or time and traffic volumes are tangible and quantifiable indicators. Given the systematic biases in these simple metrics, more complex Figure 6: Proportions of projects by ex post estimates of BCRs (n = 65) Source: Authors’ database. 5 Only six out of 66 projects can be considered outright successes where benefits greatly exceeded costs— this suggests a composite success rate of less than 10 per cent. Venture capital investors, not governments, are meant to take on endeavours with such risky pay-offs. Does infrastructure investment lead to economic growth or economic fragility? 377 by guest on July 29, 2016 http://oxrep.oxfordjournals.org/ Downloaded from metrics, such as network and spillover effects, will be prone to a greater degree of delusion and deception. How ought policy-makers then account for the benefits of infrastructure projects? In the case of transport infrastructure, benefits of projects are typically enumerated across many dimensions. Promoters claim that a new project will create new jobs, or cause the value of land adjacent to a project to appreciate, or provide value of time savings for potential end-users. Our broader evidence from China and the deeper case studies, of which the YuanMo expressway is an example, suggest that the wider the net of benefits policy-makers attempt to cast, the weaker the business case of the proposed infrastructure. Benefits, such as value of time savings or increased land values, do not come about unless the forecast traffic volumes materialize. Actual traffic is thus the most concrete and fool-proof gauge of the actual benefits of a transport project. If the basic traffic does not materialize, the rest of the benefits are also unlikely to emerge. Wider benefits are a poor guide to infrastructure investment decision-making. Vickerman (forthcoming, pp. 22–3) concludes that, (i) wide benefits where they exist, typically account for 10–20 per cent, in addition to direct benefits, (ii) often wider impacts do not exist or are negative, and (iii) where wider positive impacts exist in some regions they could be offset by negative impacts in other regions, reducing the aggregate effect. In formal terms: Hypothesis 2. Direct benefits, e.g. financial cash flows, at the project-level will be a more robust measure of the actual benefits of infrastructure investments than wider economic benefits or network effects. Policy Proposition 2: Instead of enumerating many, potentially obscure, dimensions of future benefits, policy-makers should focus on one simple metric—such as the actual Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) or revenues—for infrastructure investments. Does China’s high-octane investment programme in infrastructure explain its high economic growth rate? The conventional wisdom in economics has tended to present the seemingly obvious answer, which Röller and Waverman (2001, p. 909), using telecommunication networks as an example, neatly summarize: ‘investing in telecommunications infrastructure does itself lead to growth because its products—cable, switches, and so forth—lead to increases in the demand for the goods and services used in their production.’ In contrast, the implication of our research is that economists have tended to overstress the need for infrastructure in the economy by dwelling on the link between infrastructure investment and short-term economic growth. It is a given that increased physical capital accumulation (irrespective of whether the investment has a positive or negative NPV) will increase the GDP in the short run as a natural accounting consequence of piling investments (productive or not) into fixed capital. In fuelling economic growth today by excessive capital accumulation, policy-makers risk suffocating the possibility of steadier and more resilient future economic growth that comes from greater efficiency and productivity of using scarce factors of production. Banister and Berechman, (2000, pp. 149–50) corroborate our observation: ‘The nature of the causality between transport infrastructure development with economic growth is rather equivocal with respect to direction, functional relationships, and effect of intervening variables’. With respect to China, Huang and Khanna (2003) and Huang (2006, 2008) also stress the direction of this causality. Huang (2006) argues: 378 Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn by guest on July 29, 2016 http://oxrep.oxfordjournals.org/ Downloaded from This is a ‘China myth’—that the country grew thanks largely to its heavy investment in infrastructure. This is a fundamentally flawed reading of its growth story. In the 1980s, China had poor infrastructure but turned in a superb economic performance. China built its infrastructure after—rather than before— many years of economic growth and accumulation of financial resources. The ‘China miracle’ happened not because it had glittering skyscrapers and modern highways but because bold economic liberalization and institutional reforms— especially agricultural reforms in the early 1980s—created competition and nurtured private entrepreneurship. China’s case carries generalizable policy lessons. A massive infrastructure investment programme is not a viable development strategy in other developing countries such as Pakistan, Nigeria, or Brazil. Policy-makers should place their attention on software and orgware issues (deep institutional reforms) and exercise far greater caution in diverting scare resources to new hardware (physical infrastructure)
Apr 30, 2019, 4-30-2019, "China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Why the Price Is Too High," Knowledge@Wharton, https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-why-the-price-is-too-high/
Along with the debt piling up at BRI beneficiary countries, China, too, is facing constraints in investing in the projects. China’s plan was to use at least $400 billion in funding from government-run banks, but the program has ballooned beyond infrastructure construction. “BRI lending by major Chinesebanks has dropped by 89 since 2015, and lending by commercial banks — who are dealing with their own financial issues domestically — has ceased almost entirely,” according to a report last August by The Jamestown Foundation. “Policy banks have also scaled back, despite their status as arms of government policy.”
Karen Gilchrist, xx-xx-xxxx, “China’s ‘Belt and Road’ initiative could be the next risk to the global financial system,” CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/24/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-could-be-the-next-risk-to-the-global-financial-system.html
China has pitched its mammoth, pan-Eurasian “Belt and Road” infrastructure initiative as a means of promoting economic prosperity and fostering diplomatic ties on a global scale. That rhetoric may win plaudits at a time when other global powers are voicing increasingly protectionist agendas, but it also comes with risks, and increasing levels of state-backed funding have raised concerns about just how safe of a gamble it is. Reports on Tuesday claimed that some of China’s biggest state-owned commercial banks will begin raising capital to fund investments into the initiative, also known as “One Belt, One Road,” which aims to connect more than 60 countries across Asia, Europe and Africa with physical and digital infrastructure. China Construction Bank, the country’s second-largest bank by assets, has been conducting roadshows to raise at least 100 billion yuan ($15 billion) from on- and offshore investors, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China are also said to be raising tens of billions of dollars, though none of the banks responded to Reuters’ request for comment. The news highlights the risk that the state could amass hundreds of billions of dollars in nonperforming loans if the projects fail. For Xu Chenggang, professor of economics at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in Beijing, it was not a surprise. A risk to China’s banking system is, by default, a risk to the global banking system “It supports my concerns,” Xu told CNBC over the phone. “The impact could be damaging not just for China, but for the global financial system.” “These loans are being extended to governments in risky countries to fund risky infrastructure projects. If the projects were launched by private firms we wouldn’t have to worry because they would know they had to bear the consequences. But here we are talking about government-to-government lending and, ultimately, intergovernmental relations.” Xu attributed that issue to a phenomenon known as soft budget constraints. Soft budget constraints refer to the idea that state-owned firms will not be allowed to go bankrupt if they go insolvent because the state has vested interests in keeping them afloat. A country with high soft budget constraints and a large number of insolvent firms may then struggle for financing, which could have global financial implications. For a country like China, where state-ownership has historically been high, this is a matter of particular concern. It took decades of economic reforms and loss-making firms before it succeeded in what Xu termed a process of “quiet privatization” at the turn of the 21st century. However, the process has lost momentum over the past 10 years, and the state remains burdened with issues of overcapacity and myriad “zombie firms,” especially within the metals and construction and materials sectors. Xu said that has partially been the motivation for the “Belt and Road” initiative: “Instead of solving the overcapacity problems, they are expanding the problem to projects overseas.” “They (China) are proposing lending money to foreign governments, who will then use the Chinese funds to pay the Chinese companies,” he explained. China’s debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio surpassed 300 percent in June, according to the Institute for International Finance. And that’s before the extension of further loans. “Expansion of these soft budget constraints at such an unprecedented rate and in such a large scale is going to generate unprecedented consequences,” Xu noted. Crucially, the countries tied to the “Belt and Road” initiative are some of the riskiest developing countries in the world. A number of research bodies are now risk assessing the political, economic and business landscapes of the involved nations. “There is no doubt in my mind that there will be a large number of projects that will have unforeseen problems,” Bjorn Conrad, vice president at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, told CNBC. “There are considerable risks of nonperforming credit in many of these projects and high risks of default.” “A risk to China’s banking system is, by default, a risk to the global banking system,” he continued. However, he noted that the government would be working hard to assess risks after it was badly burned by lending to volatile countries such as Venezuela. China’s National Development and Reform Commission announced last week that it would strengthen regulation to reduce risk for domestic firms investing overseas and prevent “irrational” investment in the “Belt and Road” initiative. “There will be an enormous amount of loans to give out, on a different scale to ever before, but also an awareness that they (the Chinese government) have to keep these at a manageable scale,” Conrad said. “There will still be risks, but an understanding that they have to be managed with more scrutiny.”
Chinese infra doesn't lead to growth, actually financial instability
Atif Ansar, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, "Sci-Hub | Does infrastructure investment lead to economic growth or economic fragility? Evidence from China. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 32(3), 360–390 | 10.1093/oxrep/grw022", July 2016, http://sci-hub.tw/https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grw022
Because many corporations and financial institutions in China are state-owned, our revised calculation of China’s implicit government debt as a proportion of GDP suggests that China’s is the second-most indebted government in the world. Extraordinary monetary expansion has accompanied China’s piling debts: China’s M2 broad money grew by US$12.9 trillion in 2007–13, greater than the rest of the world combined. The result is increased financial and economic fragility. We conclude that, contrary to the conventional wisdom, infrastructure investments do not typically lead to economic growth. Overinvesting in underperforming projects instead leads to economic and financial fragility. For China, we find that poorly managed infrastructure investments are a main explanation of surfacing economic and financial problems. We predict that, unless China shifts to a lower level of higher-quality infrastructure investments, the country is headed for an infrastructure-led national financial and economic crisis, which—due to China’s prominent role in the world economy—is likely to also become a crisis internationally. China is not a model to follow for other economies—emerging or developed—as regards infrastructure investing, but a model to avoid.
Barkin ‘19// hardline EU stance is holding together US-EU alliance, and US hegemony competition with China hinges on “what happens in Europe”
Noah Barkin, 6-4-2019, "The U.S. Is Losing Europe in Its Battle With China," Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/united-states-needs-europe-against-china/590887/, accessed 9-11-2019 //TP
At the meeting in Washington, D.C., they pressed their allies to sign on to a joint statement condemning the Chinese plan. But it soon became clear that neither the Europeans nor a small group of other countries from Asia and Latin America were ready to fall in line. “No one was willing to go along with it,” one European diplomat familiar with the details of the meeting, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations, told me. “We may agree that China is a strategic threat, but you can’t just put them in a corner.” For the Europeans, the meeting at the State Department was another sign of what they see as the White House’s misguided zero-sum approach to dealing with China, and its mistaken belief that it can employ an à la carte approach with its partners, denouncing them publicly on some issues while expecting cooperation on others. For the Americans, the talks were the latest sign of Europe’s reluctance to stand up to China. “Europe,” one person close to the Trump administration who declined to be named told me, “is almost on a different planet.” After two years of escalating tensions between the United States and Europe over issues ranging from trade and Iran to defense spending and Russian gas pipelines, China should be the issue that unites them two sides, or at least eases some of the transatlantic strain. The European Union—with Germany and France leading the way—has adopted a much tougher stance on China over the past year, introducing new rules allowing for closer scrutiny of Chinese investments in European countries, exploring changes to the EU’s industrial, competition, and procurement policies to ensure Beijing is not unfairly advantaged, and, after years of avoiding clashes with Beijing, declaring China a “strategic rival.” This shift mirrors the harder line adopted by Washington under President Donald Trump, who has dialed up his two-year confrontation with Beijing several notches over the past month by raising tariffs on Chinese goods and putting the Chinese telecommunications group Huawei and scores of its affiliates on an export blacklist that could severely restrict their access to vital U.S. technology. But conversations I had with dozens of officials on both sides of the Atlantic—many of whom requested anonymity to talk about on diplomaticcy and intelligence issues—suggest that instead of coming together, Europe and the U.S. might be in the early stages of a damaging divergence on the China challenge. Trump’s latest moves, which raise the specter of a prolonged economic Cold War between Washington and Beijing, are likely to deepen the divide, taking the U.S. down a path that is unpalatable for even the hardest of European hard-liners. “If you listen to the people in the Trump administration, who view China as an existential threat, they are not in a place most Europeans can get to,” says Evan Feigenbaum, who held senior Asia-focused roles in the State Department during George W. Bush’s presidency and is now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The dissonance raises the prospect of a Western split on what both sides agree is likely to be the biggest geopolitical challenge of the 21st century—responding to the rise of an authoritarian China. A series of meetings in recent months, and the disparate ways in which they were interpreted by either side, illustrate the widening chasm. The European diplomat who discussed the April meeting likened Washington’s uncompromising stance on Belt and Road to its position on the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) a few years prior. Back then, the United States, under President Barack Obama, failed to convince allies to join a boycott of the new China-led development bank, leaving the Americans embarrassed and isolated. U.S. officials, by contrast, point to talks months before the meeting in Foggy Bottom, when Washington was pushing for a joint declaration denouncing human-rights abuses in Xinjiang, the western Chinese region where more than a million members of the Muslim minority have been detained in reeducation camps. That effort was also abandoned after what U.S. officials described as an exasperating back-and-forth with the European Union and individual member states. Among the American officials I spoke with, there was an air of what felt like panic—over what they saw as the global spread of Chinese influence through Xi’s Belt and Road initiative, the lack of an American alternative to Huawei, and the persistent failure of the World Trade Organization to tackle China’s unfair trade practices. One senior administration official likened discussions of China policy to the period after the 9/11 attacks. Inevitably, this person said, there will be an “overreaction” from Washington, with “collateral damage” for other countries, before U.S. policy settles down. In Brussels, senior officials are comparing the Trump administration’s China policy to Brexit. Both, they say, are based on the deluded notion that a fading great power can reverse the course of history and return to its glorious past. The irony is that senior U.S. administration officials acknowledge in private that American success in its competition with China might ultimately hinge on what happens in Europe. Yet many U.S. officials have no patience, at least in the highest ranks of the Trump administration, when it comes to working with European allies. Nor do they have much appreciation for the steps Europe has taken over the past year to push back against China. Several U.S. officials described the EU’s recent measures as baby steps that fall far short of what is needed. “The Americans are out to beat, contain, confront China,” a senior EU official who asked not to be identified told me. “They have a much more belligerent attitude. We believe they will waste a lot of energy and not be successful.” This does not mean that transatlantic channels of communication on China have broken down. A group of hawkish pragmatists including Matt Pottinger, who oversees Asia policy at the National Security Council, and Randall Schriver, a senior Pentagon official, have been trying to reach out to Europe for months, U.S. and European officials confirm. Last year, discussions focused on measures to protect against Chinese acquisitions. More recently, they have shifted to talks on next-generation 5G mobile networks, as well as joint responses to Belt and Road, an issue about which Washington and Brussels agreed last month to hold quarterly coordination meetings, according to EU officials. And last month, an American delegation traveled to Berlin for talks with German officials on China as part of a biannual get-together that began under the Obama administration and has continued, without a hitch, under Trump. Other changes are under way too: Last year, according to U.S. and European officials, the State Department appointed China point people in many of their European embassies, with officials estimating that roughly 150 U.S. diplomats on both sides of the Atlantic now spend at least part of their time focusing on China in Europe; at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Washington in late March, China was on the agenda for the first time; and Belt and Road could be a discussion point when France hosts a G7 summit in Biarritz in August, European officials have suggested.
Cavanna ‘17// the BRI poses a challenge to US hegemony
Thomas P. Cavanna, The Diplomat, 4-28-2017, "What Does China’s Belt and Road Initiative Mean for US Grand Strategy?," Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2018/06/what-does-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-mean-for-us-grand-strategy/, accessed 9-11-2019 //TP
The United States’ response to a rising China has largely focused on bolstering military capabilities, doctrines, and partnerships in the Asia-Pacific (or, more recently, the Indo-Pacific). This approach misconstrues the problem: it overstates the security threat and understates (or ignores) the economic challenge. To maintain its dominant position globally in the long-term, the United States must reckon with the ambitious geoeconomic endeavor Beijing has launched to project strategic influence across the Eurasian continent, which hosts most of the world’s economic centers and natural resources. The nascent Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) illustrates the transformative geopolitical implications of China’s rise. Despite its changing contours and the fact that it partly recycles preexisting plans, this series of major infrastructure and development projects designed to connect Eurasian regions together is a coherent enterprise of unprecedented scale: $4 trillion of promised investments in 65 countries representing 70 percent of the world’s population, 55 percent of its GNP, and 75 percent of its energy reserves. The BRI aims to stabilize China’s western peripheries, rekindle its economy, propel non-Western international economic institutions, gain influence in other countries, and diversify trade suppliers/routes while circumventing the U.S. pivot to Asia. Of course, the BRI’s prospects of success are subject to many unknowns, including the possibility of foreign resistance, China’s domestic economic travails, political turbulence, aging population, and environmental problems. On the other hand, the U.S. still possesses enormous assets to maintain its predominance, including military primacy, multiple alliances, powerful Western-led international organizations, and an unmatched soft power. Yet over time the BRI could threaten the very foundations of Washington’s post-WWII hegemony. A similar phenomenon is visible in Europe. For all of the United States’ efforts NATO’s post-Cold War expansion to former countries of the Soviet bloc and the launching of the global war on terror did not substitute for the foundational Soviet security threat that once undergirded the transatlantic alliance. The European states’ reluctance to increase military budgets and to participate in misguided U.S.-led interventions caused tensions, especially following the invasion of Iraq. Meanwhile China made important strides. Its regional trade and investments skyrocketed. Beijing acquired strategic assets to amass local advanced technologies and know-how, using Europe’s economic distress in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the EU’s political divisions and lack of an investment vetting process, and the mesmerizing appeal of China’s national market. Chinese leaders use their growing geoeconomic leverage to discipline their new partners and cultivate local proxies. The United States has tried to counter these efforts, as illustrated by the unsuccessful negotiation of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and continuous attempts to harness European militaries and defense industries to U.S. strategic goals. Yet Beijing’s rise has started to corrode the depth and scope of transatlantic relations. Despite frustrations with its economic practices, European countries have been willing to develop bilateral ties further and further. Moreover, they have only very timidly endorsed the U.S. position that China’s growing assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific poses a major threat to the international order. Trump’s rejection of the Iran nuclear deal, economic multilateralism, and the Paris climate agreement make things worse, but the problems are deeper.
Trigkas ‘18// if China-EU make a bilateral investment deal the US will launch a trade war against the EU
Vasilis Trigkas, July 6, 2018, "Nato, China summits a chance for Europe to assert itself," South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2153948/nato-and-china-summits-give-europe-chance, accessed 9-11-2019 //TP
In Beijing, EU leaders may have a seemingly easier task negotiating with the Chinese on trade but caution is always a wise counsellor. According to reports from the meeting of the vice-president of the European Commission, Jyrki Katainen, and Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He in June, the two sides are ready to present their detailed market access conditions by mid-July and reboot the dormant discussions on a bilateral investment treaty. If negotiations accelerate and China and the EU reach a final accord by the end of the year or early 2019, this would complicate US efforts to rebalance its economic relations with China. It could push trigger-happy Trump to unleash tariffs against European exporters at a moment when the EU has just found its economic pace. Any benefits from a bilateral investment treaty with China may be undone by a full-scale transatlantic trade war and an utterly divided West.
Bown ‘19// auto tariffs from the US would definitively cause a European retaliation
More From, 6-26-2019, "Transatlantic Policy Impacts of the US-EU Trade Conflict," PIIE, https://www.piie.com/commentary/testimonies/transatlantic-policy-impacts-us-eu-trade-conflict
Three reasons demonstrate why imposing trade restrictions on European automobiles and parts would disrupt the American economy. First, American consumers would be hit by price hikes. Fiats, Volkswagens, and Volvos, among other brands, would become more expensive. The reduced competition would inevitably raise prices of all cars, regardless of the make and model. Second, the American manufacturing base would lose access to imported auto parts it needs to produce cars for both domestic consumption and export. Imported parts are vital for American-based auto plants to keep costs low for high-quality cars made in states like Alabama, Tennessee, and South Carolina. The facilities in these and other states make some of America's most successful exports. Restricting trade in parts would hurt these factories and their workers. Third, Europe will retaliate. The European Union has announced it would impose counter tariffs on US exports—a credible threat because it did so last year when President Trump imposed tariffs on their exports of steel and aluminum, also under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.
Heeb, Gina. “Trump's proposed car tariffs could trigger a global growth recession, BAML says.” Markets Insider. 2/21/19//SSK
While that could benefit some American automakers and reduce bilateral trade deficits, it would also risk adding thousands of dollars to the price of vehicles, and raises the threat of retaliatory duties that could worsen global trade tensions. "In a worst case scenario, fullblown titfortat auto tariffs could trigger a global recession," analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a research note out this week, adding they would expect growth in the world economy to fall nearly a percentage point to 1.2. By increasing the price of vehicles and imported materials, they could threaten jobs, consumer spending, and investment. The analysts estimated that they would add $2,000 to $7,000 to price tags of both imported and American-made vehicles, posing even greater risks than the global trade tensions that emerged last year.
Harry Bradford, 4-5-2013, "Three Times The Population Of The U.S. Is At Risk Of Falling Into Poverty," HuffPost, span class="skimlinks-unlinked"https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420/span
Hundreds of millions of people worldwide are on the brink of poverty. A recent study by the International Monetary Fund warns that as many as 900 million people could fall back into poverty in the event of an economic shock like the Great Recession. That figure is three times the size of the U.S. population. According to the World Bank, 1.2 billion people are currently living on less than $1.25 a day. While the report acknowledges that progress has been to made to reduce global poverty and strengthen the world economy following the financial crisis, the world is still in a vulnerable situation. Global unemployment, for example, is the highest it’s been in two decades with 40 percent of the world’s population out of work, according to the report. And things could get much worse in the event of a macroeconomic shock, of which the Europe and U.S. are dangerously close. The recent bailout of Cyprus threw the eurozone into chaos, igniting fears that the situation could lead to the next financial crisis. Here in the U.S., a series of automatic spending cuts know as the sequester could cost the economy hundreds of thousands of jobs. The cuts have already threatened the stability of safety nets designed to aid the nation’s poorest..
Allowing China to continue decreasing slow global econ
Heeb, Gina. “China is slowing and could drag the world economy down with it.” Business Insider. 2019//SK
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-slowing-could-drag-world-economy-down-with-it-2019-1-1027906201
The second-largest economy is slowing, and it could take global growth down with it. Weaker than expected data has been pouring out of China left and right in recent months, with the economy growing at its slowest pace in nearly three decades in 2018. And many suspect things could be even worse than officials have led on. "The Chinese slowdown could have serious negative consequences for world growth if it intensifies," economists at Oxford Economics said in a research note out Tuesday. They said global economic growth could slow to 2.3 in 2019 if conditions worsen, marking the lowest level in more than a decade and a pace not seen since the financial crisis.
Chen, S. and Ravallion, M. (2009). “The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the World?s Poorest”, World Bank Development Research Group. 2 The World Bank estimates that a 1 percent decline in developing country growth rates traps an additional 20 million people in poverty. It follows therefore that the economic growth slowdown arising from the recession has adverse implication for poverty reduction. See for instance Dollar and Kraay, 2000 and Hasan et al, (2009).
Hunag 15// success in solving middle-income can lift the living standards of 1.4 billion people
Huang, Yiping. “The Questions About China’s Steady Climb Towards High Income.” East Asia Forum. Oct. 2015. https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2015/10/11/the-questions-about-chinas-steady-climb-towards-high-income/ //RJ
When its GDP per capita hit almost US$7500 in 2014, China entered the middle income stage of economic development. Relatively few countries that have made middle income status in the past three or four decades have graduated to high-income status, or achieved per capita incomes over US$16,000. Now the Chinese economic slowdown has raised questions about whether China will be able to continue its steady economic growth to avoid this middle income trap in the coming decade. Whether China makes the transition to high income status is probably one of the most important economic questions facing the world today. Success can lift the living standards of 1.4 billion people. Failure may lead to economic and social instability in China and the world could lose one-third of its global economic growth engine.
Economic growth key to effective poverty reduction
No Author, xx-xx-2007, " BUILDING JOBS AND PROSPERITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES," Department for International Development (OECD), https://www.oecd.org/derec/unitedkingdom/40700982.pd
‘Historically nothing has worked better than economic growth in enabling societies to improve the life chances of their members, including those at the very bottom.’ Dani Rodrik, Harvard University One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions and Economic Growth (2007) The central lesson from the past 50 years of development research and policy is that economic growth is the most effective way to pull people out of poverty and deliver on their wider objectives for a better life. Growth helps people move out of poverty Research that compares the experiences of a wide range of developing countries finds consistently strong evidence that rapid and sustained growth is the single most important way to reduce poverty. A typical estimate from these cross-country studies is that a 10 per cent increase in a country’s average income will reduce the poverty rate by between 20 and 30 per cent.1 | 904,007 |
364,893 | 379,061 | 4 - February Berkeley Recession Neg | =1NC=
==DA: Inflation==
====UBI triggers inflation by overloading consumption velocity====
Boyce 19
**Paul Boyce, 5-5-2019, "Universal Basic Income Is a Pandora’s Box," Foundation for Economic Education, **https://fee.org/articles/universal-basic-income-is-a-pandora-s-box/
Higher Prices and Inflation A UBI would essentially transfer wealth away from higher earners toward
AND
is in his interest to increase prices until there is no excess demand.
====These new wealth baselines force inflationary spirals====
Archetto 18
**Greg Archetto, 7-16-2018, "Implementation of a 'universal basic income' program would be a disaster", The Hill, https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/397192-implementation-of-a-universal-basic-income-program-would-be-a-disaster. (JL)**
If everyone suddenly had an extra $10K a year, and everyone knew that
AND
inflationary spiral. This is essentially Milton Friedman's "helicopter money" analogy.
===MPX: Recession===
====Inflation undermines economic growth by eliminating spending capacity====
Morah 20
**Chizoba Morah, 1-29-2020, "What Causes a Recession?," Investopedia, **https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/cause-of-recession.asp
The nature and causes of recessions are simultaneously obvious and uncertain. Recessions can result
AND
and a natural downward pressure on prices may occur as aggregate demand slumps.
====Inflation spirals trigger run on the dollar recessions====
Cochrane 11
**John Cochrane, xx-xx-2011, "Inflation and Debt" University of Chicago National Affairs, http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/john.cochrane/research/papers/Cochrane'Inflation'and'Debt'National'Affairs.pdf (professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, AQR Capital Management Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute)**
But these questions miss a grave danger. As a result of the federal government’s
AND
there would be essentially nothing the Federal Reserve could do to stop it.
====Global interconnectedness creates a spillover effect and global recession. Prior recessions pushed over 100 million people into poverty====
World Bank 10
**World Bank, 11-18-2010, "New Study Reviews the World Bank Group’s Response to The Global Financial Crisis," http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2010/11/18/new-study-reviews-the-world-bank-groups-response-to-the-global-financial-crisis**
Increased poverty resulting from the financial crisis will be a major challenge in the foreseeable
AND
other development partners during response initiatives will continue to be of paramount importance.
==DA: Stabilizers==
====Welfare programs act as automatic stabilizers that expand during times of recession ending the vicious degradation of human capital====
Spross 19
**Jeff Spross, 10-7-2019, "America needs to put recession-fighting on autopilot," The Week, https://theweek.com/articles/869684/america-needs-recessionfighting-autopilot**
More than that, our policymakers are ignoring one of the most sensible and straightforward
AND
you something about the quality of the work the labor market is offering them
====By replacing welfare with a UBI, you prevent welfare spending that is essential to recovery====
Winningham 16
**Ellis Winningham ~~Economist~~. "Universal Basic Income: An Economic "Destabilizer." May 23, 2016. Accessed February 25, 2018. http://elliswinningham.net/index.php/2016/05/23/universal-basic-income-an-economic-destabilizer/**
Spending can go into a free fall and when it does, unemployment can rise
AND
. I hope this explanation provides further clarity to yesterday’s article and to my
====Automatic stabilizers are uniquely important in fighting this recession and futures ones due to structural constrains on the federal reserve====
Estep 19
**Sara Estep, Center for American Progress, "The Importance of Automatic Stabilizers in the Next Recession - Center for American Progress", 6/17/2019, https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2019/06/17/471120/importance-automatic-stabilizers-next-recession/**
Although the United States currently has automatic stabilizers in place, there is room for
AND
time lag—so long as triggers are effectively tied to economic indicators.
====Automatic stabilizers buy critical time to legislative fiscal stimulus====
Estep 19
**Sara Estep and Olugbenga Ajilore and Michael Madowitz, 6-17-2019, "The Importance of Automatic Stabilizers in the Next Recession," Center for American Progress, https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2019/06/17/471120/importance-automatic-stabilizers-next-recession/**
A recession response should generally have a two-pronged fiscal policy approach: automatic
AND
conjunction with a temporary fiscal stimulus, half the battle will be lost.
===MPX: Recession Severity===
====The fiscal response during the last recession reduced its length by half and prevented the loss of over 10 million jobs====
Blinder 15
**Alan S. Blinder and Mark Zandi, "The Financial Crisis: Lessons for the Next One", Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 10-15-2015, https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/the-financial-crisis-lessons-for-the-next-one, DOA-12-30-2018 **
The massive and multifaceted policy responses to the financial crisis and Great Recession — ranging
AND
it would have been, with about 10 million more jobs ~~lost~~. | 904,022 |
364,894 | 328,462 | 2 - Cap K - Generic v2 | ====The aff's rejection of the specific details of political engagement is not radical but continues the prevailing mode of leftist cynicism that eviscerates our ability to construct alternatives to political domination====
**Burgum 15** (Samuel, PhD candidate in Sociology at the University of Warwick and has been conducting research with Occupy London since 2012, "The branding of the left: between spectacle and passivity in an era of cynicism," Journal for Cultural Research, Volume 19, Issue 3)
Rather than the Situationist spectacle, then, I argue that the reason those on
AND
that real and authentic (unbranded) struggle and therefore denying it indefinitely.
====Capitalism causes war, violence, environmental destruction and extinction.====
**Robinson 18** (William I., Prof. of Sociology, Global and International Studies, and Latin American Studies, @ UC-Santa Barbara, "Accumulation Crisis and Global Police State" Critical Sociology) RE
Each major episode of crisis in the world capitalist system has presented the potential for
AND
the peoples in these spaces must be repressed by the global police state.
====The alternative — we should reject the Aff as a withdrawal from the logic of capitalism– this is the kind of demand that challenges overarching structures. ====
Adrian Johnston 4 ~~Dept of Philosophy, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque~~, "The Cynic's Fetish: Slavoj Z?iz?ek and the Dynamics of Belief", ?International Journal of Zizek Studies, Volume 1, 2004, BE
Perhaps the absence of a detailed practical roadmap in Z?iz?ek's political writings isn't a major
AND
comforting fiction ("Capitalist commodity fetishism or the truth? I choose fetishism."). | 851,693 |
364,895 | 328,502 | 1 - Standard Spec | ====A~~ Interpretation: The affirmative debater must read either a standard or role of the ballot. ====
====B~~ Violation: ====
====C~~ Standards: ====
====1~~ Strat Skew – I don't know what matters under your framing – our ideas of what exactly matters may vary – means I can't engage substantively. You just have a bunch of random cards which could be reinterpreted in the 1AR depending on the 1NC. For example, your JanFeb 2018 aff read rights first and util and the Saudi aff had some ethics args but also extinction impacts, which leaves 2 options for 1AR clarifications to evade neg offense. ====
====2~~ Resolvability – if there's dispute about whether certain impacts matter at the end of the round, the judge has to intervene because there's no stable standard text to refer to – resolvability is a voter since we need to resolve rounds with a winner and loser==== | 851,707 |
364,896 | 328,421 | 1 - Disclose Spec | A. Interpretation – If a debater read a theory shell claiming the aff must specify something then the negative must disclose said spec interp on the 2019-2020 NDCA LD wiki prior to the round.
B. Violation - screenshot
Prefer—there’s so many things I could specify to make the round slightly better which means the form of their theory argument causes all rounds to collapse to theory and turns 1AC’s into 6 minutes of definitions. Spec always trades off with itself—the time I spend specifying their interp means less time specifying other thing, which is why asking is key. Turns their offense: our interp ensures we specify what they want us to, which avoids arbitrary definitions that moot neg preparation and ground. This shell outweighs since it constraints whether you can evaluate the initial shell and it also serves as a counter-interp to their shell. | 851,646 |
364,897 | 328,448 | 1 - Disclose The Right Aff | ====fyi i just sorta rambled and wrote notes here but disclosure is good so enjoy looking at this====
Interpretation: The affirmative must, upon the release of tournament pairings, tell the negative what specific affirmative position they will be reading, including the correct aff advocacy and any changes to the aff, at least thirty minutes before the round.
Violation –
2 screenshots and a link in the doc prove they said it’d be the false needs aff on molly ryans wiki with changes to only solvency 40min before 11:55, but the 1AC advocacy was different from what’s on the wiki and the advocacy just isn’t part of the solvency section on the wiki
Standards:
Negate for pre round prep – prep becomes atrocious when the aff can say it’s the aff on a wiki and then just read a very different advocacy text. The aff on the wiki defended taking a more holistic approach in addition to the resolution which is definitely extra t so I made extra t a large part of the 1nc but the 1ac was different so I lost the ability to make that arg
Colleges and universities ought not consider standardized test scores in undergraduate admissions decisions, and instead they should take a more holistic approach when evaluating candidates.
2 impacts
a) neg strat – I could spend 30min planning to read a disad to the sat act aff or extra t in this round, then have it switched on me with a small toefl aff which moots all pre round prep which o/w cuz the neg is reactive to the aff
b) clash – it sets a general bad norm where an aff could say it’s the one on the wiki then read sth completely diff which just shifts outta neg args and engagement with the aff | 851,686 |
364,898 | 328,411 | NOVDEC - AC - Peak Oil v2 | ====Peak oil is imminent and guarantees civilizational collapse – immediate transition is needed to prevent inevitable crisis ====
Kuhns and Shaw 18 Roger James Kuhns ~~Writer, filmmaker, performer, geologist (Ph.D), and founder of SustainAudit, LLC, a sustainable practices application company based in Mystic, Connecticut~~ and George H. Shaw ~~Professor of geology at Union College~~, 10 February 2018, "Peak Oil and Petroleum Energy Resources" Navigating the Energy Maze pp 53-63, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-22783-2_7 // ash
7.2 Global Resources
There have been numerous projections of the global petroleum
AND
to 2060 for completing the transition to a sustainable energy economy.
====Subsidies prop up failing coal and oil industries and prevent a transition to cleaner energy sources ====
Nuccitelli 17 Dana Nuccitelli ~~Dana Nuccitelli is an environmental scientist, and author of Climatology versus Pseudoscience. He has published 10 papers related to climate change in peer-reviewed journals, including three studies on the expert climate consensus~~, 8-3-2017, "Trump's plan to bail out failing fossil fuels with taxpayer subsidies is perverse," Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/oct/09/trumps-plan-to-bail-out-failing-fossil-fuels-with-taxpayer-subsidies-is-perverse // ash
Trump's proposed coal bailout
The Trump administration has made no secret of its love
AND
Americans are paying for it up-front in the form of taxes.
====Supply decline triggers worldwide instability and resource wars – continued reliance on oil guarantees recurring conflicts ====
Friedemann 15 Alice J. Friedemann ~~Systems analyst and author~~, 10 December 2015, "U.S. Energy Policy: Oil Wars and Drill-Baby-Drill to Keep Autos Running?" SpringerBriefs in Energy, 117–122, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-26375-5_19 // ash
Wars Keep the Oil Flowing
In a 1980 "State of the Union"
AND
All the while, U.S. fossil fuel dependence will continue.
====Plan – the United States should eliminate production subsidies for fossil fuels.====
====Producer subsidies are listed by Redman 17 – we've inserted charts in the doc====
Redman 17 ~~Janet Redman is an associate fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies and the former director of the Climate Policy Program. Janet is currently the U.S. Policy Director at Oil Change International and serves on the board of directors of the Global Alliance for Incinerator Alternatives. MA from Clark University in International Development and Social Change. BS in Enviro Sci from U of Vermont. Oil Change International is a research, communications, and advocacy organization focused on exposing the true costs of fossil fuels and facilitating the coming transition towards clean energy.~~ "DIRTY ENERGY DOMINANCE: DEPENDENT ON DENIAL." Oil Change International. October 2017. http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2017/10/OCI_US-Fossil-Fuel-Subs-2015-16_Final_Oct2017.pdf TG
====Fossil fuels are defined by the EPA====
**EPA 13 **(Environmental Protection Agency, "System of Registries" Climate Change Terms Vocabulary Catalog, 9-9-2013, https://ofmpub.epa.gov/sor_internet/registry/termreg/searchandretrieve/glossariesandkeywordlists/search.do?details=andamp;glossaryName=Glossary20Climate20Change20Terms) EE
Fossil Fuel
Definition: A general term for organic materials formed from decayed plants
AND
heat and pressure in the earth's crust over hundreds of millions of years.
====The plan decarbonizes the economy, reduces foreign energy dependence, and kickstarts a renewable revolution. ====
Monasterolo 19 Irene Monasterolo ~~Irene Monasterolo is a development economist with experience in policy monitoring and evaluation; institutional capacity building; governance of evidence-based sustainability policies; complex system thinking for modelling the resource-climate nexus; green fiscal and monetary policies for financing the green economy; and adaptation tools for building agricultural resilience to climate change, focusing on food risk and climate adaptation. She has worked as a scientist in academia, as an economist for consulting companies, as a consultant for the World Bank. She is currently Assistant Professor of Climate Economics and Finance at the Vienna University of Economics and Business and a Visiting Scholar with Stanford Energy's Sustainable Finance Initiative. She holds a PhD in Agri-food economics and statistics from the University of Bologna (IT) and held a post-doc at the Global Sustainability Institute in Cambridge (UK) focused on modelling the impact of resource constraints on global growth and political instability.~~ and Marco Raberto ~~Associate Professor of Business and Management Engineering, University of Genoa, Italy~~ (2019). The impact of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies on the low-carbon transition. Energy Policy, 124, 355–370. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.08.051 // ash
The phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies contributes to improve the performance of the production
AND
scenario to the real economy, green capital investments and the credit market.
====Elimination ushers in an era of carbon consciousness ====
RI 19 Roosevelt Institute, 2019, " Decarbonizing the US Economy: Pathways Toward a Green New Deal " Roosevelt Institute, https://rooseveltinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/GND_policy-brief-fossil-fuel-subsidies.pdf // ash
Historically, the US government has chosen to subsidize the fossil fuel industry to a
AND
prices while freeing up additional resources for the rapid decarbonization of the US.
====Our climate leadership gets modeled====
**Metcalf 18 **Gilbert Metcalf (John DiBiaggio Professor of Citizenship and Public Service and a Professor of Economics at Tufts University. In addition, he is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a University Fellow at Resources For The Future). 2018, The impact of removing tax preferences for US oil and natural gas production: measuring tax subsidies by an equivalent price impact approach. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 5(1), 1-37 WJ
Tax reform could, however, strengthen US climate leadership and therefore help mitigate climate
AND
those countries that international pressure for reform would overcome domestic barriers against it. | 851,632 |
364,899 | 328,494 | NOVDEC - DA - Energy Poverty | ====Increasing the cost of fossil fuels increases energy poverty ====
**Portland State University '19** Portland State University (press release). "Shifts to renewable energy can drive up energy poverty, PSU study finds." American Association of the Advancement of Science. 12-Jul-2019. https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-07/psu-str071219.php ~~Premier~~
Efforts to shift away from fossil fuels and replace oil and coal with renewable energy
AND
— heating, cooling, refrigeration — are the things you absolutely need."
====Energy poverty affects millions and its impacts span across generations====
**Consumer Energy Alliance '17** Consumer Energy Alliance (think tank on energy policy). "More Americans Are Living in Energy Poverty." October 16, 2017. https://consumerenergyalliance.org/2017/10/americans-living-energy-poverty/ ~~Premier~~
For Americans living near or below the poverty line, basic necessities like electric power
AND
the United States live in energy poverty, and desperately need affordable power.
====Energy poverty affects nearly a third of US households, and affects minorities worst====
**Ingber '18** Ingber, Sasha, NPR Reporter. "31 Percent Of U.S. Households Have Trouble Paying Energy Bills." September 19, 2018. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2018/09/19/649633468/31-percent-of-u-s-households-have-trouble-paying-energy-bills ~~Premier~~
Nearly a third of households in the United States have struggled to pay their energy
AND
data come from the federal agency's most recent energy consumption survey in 2015. | 851,704 |
Subsets and Splits