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600 | <s>[INST] In the rural Mexican state of Tabasco, federal authorities are investigating contributors to the governor's $70 [/INST] million election campaign, almost three times what millionaire Steve Forbes spent on his Republican primary bid in the U.S. Usually, the corrupting links between economic liberalization and politics are more subtle. </s> |
601 | <s>[INST] Last year, Argentine Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo went public with accusations that legislators were tailoring the bidding specifications [/INST] for a postal privatization so narrowly that only one person could win: a courier service owner, whom Mr. Cavallo publicly accused of "mafia-style" tactics, such as paying off legislators and beating up rivals. </s> |
602 | <s>[INST] The lawmakers hit the minister with [/INST] a flurry of lawsuits and then shelved debate on the sell-off. </s> |
603 | <s>[INST] In Brazil, an obscure trucking operator named Wagner Canhedo used [/INST] privatization -- and political allies -- to transform himself into the chief of a major airline, Vasp SA. </s> |
604 | <s>[INST] In 1990 Mr. Canhedo obtained $7 million of Vasp's $43 [/INST] million purchase price in a loan from Paulo Cesar Farias, the former campaign finance chief for then-President Collor. </s> |
605 | <s>[INST] In an unrelated case, Mr. Farias was convicted of tax [/INST] evasion related to his role managing the multimillion dollar influence peddling scheme that led to Mr. Collor's impeachment. </s> |
606 | <s>[INST] Separately, Orestes Quercia, governor of the state that privatized Vasp, entered into agreements with [/INST] Mr. Canhedo to ease Vasp's towering debt burden; these concessions later cost the state millions of dollars when Mr. Canhedo fell behind on debt payments. </s> |
607 | <s>[INST] Mr. Canhedo's dealings with Mr. Farias and Mr. Quercia are now [/INST] the subject of separate inquiries by federal and state authorities, respectively, to determine whether the privatization was conducted lawfully. </s> |
608 | <s>[INST] Noting that a 1992 congressional inquiry found no [/INST] illegalities in Vasp's sale, a Vasp spokesman says the current investigations are politically motivated. </s> |
609 | <s>[INST] In the early 1990s, Mexico sold state banks to Carlos [/INST] Cabal and Angel Rodriguez, both of whom were as notable for their political connections as their business credentials. </s> |
610 | <s>[INST] Today the two have something else in [/INST] common: They are fugitives from Mexican justice, accused of committing massive corporate frauds. </s> |
611 | <s>[INST] The Mexican attorney general's office says it suspects [/INST] Mr. Cabal of indirectly making illegal contributions to the lavish Tabasco gubernatorial campaign. </s> |
612 | <s>[INST] Stranger still is the story of Gerardo de [/INST] Prevoisin, who in 1989 led an investor group that bought Mexico's largest airline, Aeromexico. </s> |
613 | <s>[INST] In lawsuits in the U.S. and [/INST] Mexico, Aeromexico now accuses Mr. de Prevoisin of embezzling $72 million. </s> |
614 | <s>[INST] Mr. de Prevoisin, whose current [/INST] whereabouts are unknown, has denied the allegation. </s> |
615 | <s>[INST] He told a Texas court that $8 million of the funds [/INST] he is accused of stealing were contributed to Mexico's ruling party with the full approval of the Aeromexico board. </s> |
616 | <s>[INST] Likening Latin America's current profusion of capitalist excess and political sleaze to the era of the Robber [/INST] Barons and Tammany Hall in late-19th century U.S., some analysts are predicting the start of a reformist push like the one that hit the U.S. around the turn of the century. </s> |
617 | <s>[INST] In Latin America the difficulty [/INST] may be finding leaders for this crusade. </s> |
618 | <s>[INST] Argentine Jose Octavio Bordon volunteered for the job when he [/INST] started his Frepaso alliance, one of two Argentine political groups that have emerged under the anticorruption banner. </s> |
619 | <s>[INST] A few months ago, however, he resigned his senate [/INST] seat after being accused by a provincial court of corruption in connection with irregularities in state contracts. </s> |
620 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 171 of 500 Global Investing (A Special Report): Risky Business --- What to Watch For: A [/INST] look at many of the World's top markets -- and the Events that could affect Investments in each this year Publication info: Wall Street Journal , Eastern edition [New York, N.Y] 27 June 1996: R14. </s> |
621 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: Rising interest rates in the U.S. are the top concern here: [/INST] The Argentine peso is pegged to the dollar, so higher U.S. rates would hurt the peso and undermine the value of Argentine assets. </s> |
622 | <s>[INST] Another question: Can the government manage the balance between [/INST] revitalizing the economy and meeting strict fiscal goals laid down by the International Monetary Fund? </s> |
623 | <s>[INST] Meanwhile, the government is raising taxes [/INST] so it can meet the European Union's single-currency criteria. </s> |
624 | <s>[INST] Later, the state will have [/INST] to continue trimming spending, risking trouble with unions. </s> |
625 | <s>[INST] And the prime minister's effort to assemble [/INST] a tough 1997 budget and overhaul the welfare system could topple his government. </s> |
626 | <s>[INST] Brazil faces fiscal and monetary [/INST] threats that are linked to its always-unpredictable political system. </s> |
627 | <s>[INST] At issue: whether the nation's Congress approves a package of [/INST] budget-cutting proposals in time to allow policy makers to fix a widening deficit and an overvalued currency. </s> |
628 | <s>[INST] Brazil has relied on high interest rates and a [/INST] stable currency to cut monthly inflation to 1% from 50% over the past two years. </s> |
629 | <s>[INST] But the government must attack the root [/INST] causes of inflation: excessive outlays on public payrolls and social-security benefits. </s> |
630 | <s>[INST] Whether Congress can be induced [/INST] to go along is an open question. </s> |
631 | <s>[INST] Full text: Common sense says to [/INST] keep an eye on the big picture when buying stocks. </s> |
632 | <s>[INST] But when you're half a world [/INST] away, how do you even know what to look for? </s> |
633 | <s>[INST] What follows is a guide, by Wall Street Journal correspondents, to some of the crucial events and [/INST] trends to watch this year in many of the world's important markets, along with figures on stock-market performance in the year and three years ended May 31 from International Finance Corp. </s> |
634 | <s>[INST] Argentina 1-Year Change: 29% 3-Year Change: 75% Rising interest rates in the U.S. are [/INST] the top concern here: The Argentine peso is pegged to the dollar, so higher U.S. rates would hurt the peso and undermine the value of Argentine assets. </s> |
635 | <s>[INST] Another question: Can the government manage the balance between [/INST] revitalizing the economy and meeting strict fiscal goals laid down by the International Monetary Fund? </s> |
636 | <s>[INST] Australia 1-Year Change: 24% 3-Year Change: 54% In March, Australians threw [/INST] out the ruling Labor Party government after a 13-year stint and installed a coalition of the Liberal and National parties. </s> |
637 | <s>[INST] Investors should watch the new government's relations [/INST] with Australia's labor unions, which threaten to demand big wage increases. </s> |
638 | <s>[INST] That would fuel inflation, and [/INST] could in turn prompt a rise in interest rates. </s> |
639 | <s>[INST] Austria 1-Year Change: 1.8% 3-Year Change: [/INST] 36% Last year, the government collapsed and the market tanked. </s> |
640 | <s>[INST] Before the year was out, the same coalition [/INST] regrouped after an election and got back into power, so more trouble may lie ahead. </s> |
641 | <s>[INST] Moreover, trading on the stock market is dominated by [/INST] just a handful of stocks, and the government owns big stakes in a number of companies. </s> |
642 | <s>[INST] Belgium 1-Year Change: 9.3% 3-Year Change: [/INST] 48% Belgium is a stable nation that's reducing its budget deficit. </s> |
643 | <s>[INST] Meanwhile, the government is raising taxes [/INST] so it can meet the European Union's single-currency criteria. </s> |
644 | <s>[INST] Later, the state will have [/INST] to continue trimming spending, risking trouble with unions. </s> |
645 | <s>[INST] And the prime minister's effort to assemble [/INST] a tough 1997 budget and overhaul the welfare system could topple his government. </s> |
646 | <s>[INST] Brazil 1-Year Change: 18% 3-Year Change: 124% Brazil [/INST] faces fiscal and monetary threats that are linked to its always-unpredictable political system. </s> |
647 | <s>[INST] At issue: whether the nation's Congress approves a package of [/INST] budget-cutting proposals in time to allow policy makers to fix a widening deficit and an overvalued currency. </s> |
648 | <s>[INST] Brazil has relied on high interest rates and a [/INST] stable currency to cut monthly inflation to 1% from 50% over the past two years. </s> |
649 | <s>[INST] But the government must attack the root [/INST] causes of inflation: excessive outlays on public payrolls and social-security benefits. </s> |
650 | <s>[INST] Whether Congress can be induced [/INST] to go along is an open question. </s> |
651 | <s>[INST] Canada 1-Year Change: 16% 3-Year Change: 26% This year [/INST] may be Canada's first since 1991 without an election or referendum of major concern to investors. </s> |
652 | <s>[INST] Quebec's premier, Lucien Bouchard, is trying to clean up the [/INST] province's fiscal mess, and has indicated he will wait a couple of years before seeking another sovereignty vote. </s> |
653 | <s>[INST] But he has also threatened to [/INST] act more quickly if Ottawa hardens its stance against Quebec separatism. </s> |
654 | <s>[INST] Chile 1-Year Change: -17% 3-Year Change: 107% With the economy humming along at [/INST] a 7% annual growth rate, investors should watch how much further the central bank continues its policy of raising interest rates to prevent overheating. </s> |
655 | <s>[INST] China 1-Year Change: -14% 3-Year Change: -47% In [/INST] the world's most-hyped growth market, rising crime, corruption and tensions with the U.S. are concerns. </s> |
656 | <s>[INST] But the biggest risk [/INST] is the rising expectations of ordinary Chinese. </s> |
657 | <s>[INST] Coastal-city dwellers are growing rich, but some 900 [/INST] million Chinese in rural or slowly emerging areas have little prospect of affluence. </s> |
658 | <s>[INST] Colombia 1-Year Change: -7.4% 3-Year Change: 69% A political crisis involving allegations [/INST] that President Ernesto Samper took money from drug traffickers to finance his 1994 presidential campaign is likely to be resolved by year's end. </s> |
659 | <s>[INST] But the longer President Samper resists widespread calls [/INST] for his resignation, the bigger an effect the scandal will have on Colombia's economy. </s> |
660 | <s>[INST] Foreign investors might pour out of the country, [/INST] weakening the currency; or they might demand much higher interest rates to offset risk. </s> |
661 | <s>[INST] Czech Republic 1-Year Change: 9.3% 3-Year Change: N.A. The upside: [/INST] Planned sales of the state's huge stakes in the country's four biggest banks offer new opportunities for Western investors. </s> |
662 | <s>[INST] Moreover, new rules should bring [/INST] order to the wild Prague Stock Exchange. </s> |
663 | <s>[INST] The downside: Political squabbles [/INST] could scuttle the privatization of power utilities. </s> |
664 | <s>[INST] Rising prices of natural gas, [/INST] electricity and commodities could fuel discontent with the government. </s> |
665 | <s>[INST] The closing of weak banks as part [/INST] of a banking overhaul is shaking up the country's financial system. </s> |
666 | <s>[INST] And reformist Prime Minister Vaclav Klaus's [/INST] recent loss of a majority in Parliament may breed instability. </s> |
667 | <s>[INST] Denmark 1-Year Change: 6.7% 3-Year Change: 38% This is [/INST] one of the few countries on track to meet the strict criteria for European monetary union. </s> |
668 | <s>[INST] Growth is sputtering, a strong krone and wage [/INST] increases have hurt competitiveness, investment is flat and the trade surplus is shrinking fast. </s> |
669 | <s>[INST] And if Germany's growth doesn't pick up this year, [/INST] Denmark -- which is highly sensitive to movements in the German economy -- will suffer. </s> |
670 | <s>[INST] Egypt 1-Year Change: -19% 3-Year Change: N.A. The government recently approved [/INST] the privatization of more than 100 state-owned companies, and major stakes are expected to be sold through the stock market. </s> |
671 | <s>[INST] But some doubt the sales will go [/INST] through, or that the market is liquid enough to support the sales. </s> |
672 | <s>[INST] Islamic fundamentalists continue to oppose President Hosni Mubarak's rule and [/INST] have launched terror attacks against foreigners in Egypt, aiming to scare off tourists and damage the economy. </s> |
673 | <s>[INST] Finland 1-Year Change: -2.6% 3-Year Change: 105% [/INST] Finland has strong exports and the European Union's lowest inflation rate. </s> |
674 | <s>[INST] Its real problem is its next-door neighbor: Economic and psychological [/INST] ties to Russia are thick, and upheaval in Russia could hurt Finnish stocks, bonds and the markka. </s> |
675 | <s>[INST] France 1-Year Change: 5.8% 3-Year Change: 24% Markets will be watching closely to [/INST] see how decisively France moves to meet the stringent fiscal targets required for European monetary union in the face of slow economic growth. </s> |
676 | <s>[INST] President Jacques Chirac has made it clear that he wants [/INST] the government to make deep cuts in public spending -- a move that could lead to social unrest. </s> |
677 | <s>[INST] Another question is the partial privatization of [/INST] France Telecom: Employees are threatening strikes in protest of the sell-off plan. </s> |
678 | <s>[INST] Germany 1-Year Change: 7.1% 3-Year Change: 48% A [/INST] big question is the prospect of European monetary union, scheduled to begin in 1999. </s> |
679 | <s>[INST] As the likelihood of a single currency increases, the [/INST] mark is expected to fall against the dollar, which would benefit German exporters and their stocks. </s> |
680 | <s>[INST] But currency losses would eat [/INST] up much of the gain for U.S. investors. </s> |
681 | <s>[INST] Greece 1-Year Change: 5.8% 3-Year Change: 31% New Prime Minister Costas Simitis [/INST] has so far failed to solve the country's most vexing problems: Inflation remains above 9%, and the budget deficit is growing. </s> |
682 | <s>[INST] Privatization is lagging, despite a [/INST] recent partial offering of the phone monopoly. </s> |
683 | <s>[INST] Hong Kong 1-Year Change: 17% 3-Year [/INST] Change: 49% Things are looking down for Asia's business citadel. </s> |
684 | <s>[INST] Sometime before then, analysts expect a run [/INST] on the Hong Kong dollar, which could devalue any Hong Kong investments. </s> |
685 | <s>[INST] China is likely to provide an excuse [/INST] for such a run: It says it will disband the colony's democratic legislature. </s> |
686 | <s>[INST] An unpopular choice or a weak defender of Hong Kong could [/INST] cause prices of stocks and property to plunge, and force the government to lift interest rates to protect the currency. </s> |
687 | <s>[INST] India 1-Year Change: -0.2% 3-Year Change: 41% Interest rates are [/INST] worrisome: They are averaging about 17%, and are unlikely to drop because of the government's hefty debt-repayment commitments. </s> |
688 | <s>[INST] In the short term, [/INST] the high rates could undermine industrial growth. </s> |
689 | <s>[INST] And political instability following the recent general [/INST] election could take a toll on the market and on the rupee. </s> |
690 | <s>[INST] But many are confident reforms will survive, [/INST] and recent talk of expanding trade with archenemy Pakistan has buoyed business sentiment. </s> |
691 | <s>[INST] Indonesia 1-Year Change: 7.7% 3-Year [/INST] Change: 34% The big worries here are political. </s> |
692 | <s>[INST] No one knows who will succeed [/INST] 75-year-old President Suharto, who has run the country for 30 years. </s> |
693 | <s>[INST] Parliamentary elections, which might turn unruly, will be [/INST] held by June 1997; a special assembly picks the next president in March 1998. </s> |
694 | <s>[INST] Ireland 1-Year Change: 24% 3-Year Change: 73% Ireland is [/INST] looking good: Annual growth of 6% is predicted this year, after a boom of 8% in 1995. </s> |
695 | <s>[INST] But the Irish punt's rise against the German [/INST] mark and the British pound means lower import prices, a hedge against inflation. </s> |
696 | <s>[INST] Disruptions in the Northern Ireland peace [/INST] process probably won't hurt the markets, according to experts. </s> |
697 | <s>[INST] That's because investors in the south are [/INST] more interested in their region's growth than in the peace process. </s> |
698 | <s>[INST] Israel 1-Year Change: 5.8% 3-Year Change: -13% Israeli consumers are [/INST] driving up inflation with heavy buying, and government agencies also have been spending at a tremendous clip. </s> |
699 | <s>[INST] In anticipation of budget cuts, the shekel has [/INST] been falling against the dollar, and is expected to continue to do so. </s> |
Subsets and Splits