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700 | <s>[INST] A cheaper shekel could spur [/INST] foreign investment, by making Israeli stocks look less expensive. </s> |
701 | <s>[INST] Markets could tank if the new government of Prime Minister Benjamin [/INST] Netanyahu slows peace talks with the Palestinians or the governments of Egypt and Jordan look unstable for any reason. </s> |
702 | <s>[INST] Italy 1-Year Change: 3.7% 3-Year Change: [/INST] 13% The main risk is -- surprise -- government instability. </s> |
703 | <s>[INST] The center-left government is a minority one, forcing [/INST] it to rely on the support of politicians outside the coalition to pass legislation. </s> |
704 | <s>[INST] The government will have to draft a budget [/INST] that is rigorous enough to show commitment to monetary union without strangling economic growth. </s> |
705 | <s>[INST] The government must also keep inflation and [/INST] interest rates down, making it cheaper to service the public debt. </s> |
706 | <s>[INST] Japan 1-Year Change: 3.4% 3-Year Change: 2.5% The economy is [/INST] finally recovering, but the Bank of Japan may decide to raise interest rates if it expands quickly. </s> |
707 | <s>[INST] It could also make the yen stronger [/INST] against the dollar, and thus hurt the competitiveness of Japanese exporters. </s> |
708 | <s>[INST] Meanwhile, the government could be gearing up [/INST] for a general election late this year or early in 1997. </s> |
709 | <s>[INST] To win votes, the current [/INST] government could spend more money on public works. </s> |
710 | <s>[INST] But the budget also will probably [/INST] include a higher consumer tax, which could damp domestic demand. </s> |
711 | <s>[INST] Jordan 1-Year Change: -3.4% 3-Year Change: [/INST] 27% Jordan recently adopted new legislation to encourage foreign investment. </s> |
712 | <s>[INST] Foreigners now face a lower minimum investment requirement, and can now [/INST] buy up to 50% of a company without cabinet approval, and 100% of an initial public offering with government approval. </s> |
713 | <s>[INST] But much depends on shoring up [/INST] confidence in the dinar by building up foreign reserves. </s> |
714 | <s>[INST] Questions persist about popular King Hussein's [/INST] health, which could hurt the market, as could tensions with Iraq. </s> |
715 | <s>[INST] Malaysia 1-Year Change: Flat 3-Year Change: 52% Investors [/INST] will be hopping mad if the country doesn't shrink its chronic current-account deficit. </s> |
716 | <s>[INST] Political turbulence could rattle markets, too: In [/INST] October, Malaysia's dominant political party, the United Malays National Organization, holds internal elections. </s> |
717 | <s>[INST] Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, UMNO president, [/INST] won't be challenged, but rifts may surface within the party. </s> |
718 | <s>[INST] Mexico 1-Year Change: 33% 3-Year Change: -16% After devaluing the peso in [/INST] 1994, Mexico has a low level of foreign reserves, and foreign investors could lose big from further sharp adjustments in the currency. </s> |
719 | <s>[INST] That's healthy for Mexico in the long term, but [/INST] social upheaval is expected as unions, courts, opposition parties and local governments experiment with their newfound power. </s> |
720 | <s>[INST] Signs of instability typically [/INST] lead to volatile swings in Mexico's markets. </s> |
721 | <s>[INST] The Netherlands 1-Year Change: 20% 3-Year Change: 71% Firmly on track [/INST] to qualify for the EU monetary union, the Netherlands is keeping wages under control and making the labor market more flexible. </s> |
722 | <s>[INST] But welfare remains a heavy burden, and further cuts [/INST] are needed if the Netherlands is to achieve a lasting reduction in taxes and social-security contributions. </s> |
723 | <s>[INST] New Zealand 1-Year Change: -5.8% 3-Year Change: 57% [/INST] The ruling conservative National Party must call an election before the end of the year. </s> |
724 | <s>[INST] The poll will be the first held under [/INST] a newly adopted German-style voting system that gives minor parties a bigger say in government. </s> |
725 | <s>[INST] The election is likely to [/INST] produce uncertainty, which could spook the stock market. </s> |
726 | <s>[INST] Norway 1-Year Change: 11% 3-Year Change: 54% [/INST] Look for steady economic growth in the next six to 12 months. </s> |
727 | <s>[INST] The economy expanded 4.2% last [/INST] year and should grow about 3.5% this year. </s> |
728 | <s>[INST] The big risk facing Norway is a [/INST] possible drop in oil prices, which would hammer the country's large oil companies. </s> |
729 | <s>[INST] While analysts predict that oil prices could drop [/INST] 11% or so in the next six months, they aren't predicting a collapse. </s> |
730 | <s>[INST] Pakistan 1-Year Change: 13% 3-Year Change: 64% [/INST] Government spending has been out of control, but is finally coming down. </s> |
731 | <s>[INST] The deficit is, too, but not [/INST] fast enough for the watchdogs at the International Monetary Fund. </s> |
732 | <s>[INST] A renewed effort to privatize [/INST] state firms seems to be on track. </s> |
733 | <s>[INST] Violence waged by the Mohajir Qaumi Movement, which appeals [/INST] to Indian-immigrant Muslims and which cast a shadow over markets last year, appears to be cooling. </s> |
734 | <s>[INST] Peru 1-Year Change: 11% 3-Year Change: 174% The government must curb a current-account [/INST] deficit that last year spiraled to around 7% of gross domestic product -- a level approaching Mexico's deficit prior to the peso devaluation. </s> |
735 | <s>[INST] Peruvian authorities have slowed [/INST] the economy and imposed selective import barriers. </s> |
736 | <s>[INST] Peru also faces a political risk: The autocratic style of President Alberto Fujimori [/INST] may begin to wear thin as his second term in office progresses, especially with economic growth far more modest than Peruvians have grown accustomed to. </s> |
737 | <s>[INST] The Philippines 1-Year Change: 18% 3-Year Change: [/INST] 120% The economy grew 4.8% in 1995, and inflation seems to have peaked. </s> |
738 | <s>[INST] But if Congress fails to pass [/INST] a tax-reform bill this year, investors will lose confidence. </s> |
739 | <s>[INST] Without reform, tax-revenue shortfalls will [/INST] force the government to increase foreign borrowing. </s> |
740 | <s>[INST] Poland 1-Year Change: 43% 3-Year Change: [/INST] 98% Poland's economy continues to improve as foreign investment increases. </s> |
741 | <s>[INST] The ex-Communists, who control Parliament and [/INST] the presidency, are pushing forward with their economic platform. </s> |
742 | <s>[INST] Sometime this summer or fall, Poland should join the Organization for Economic Cooperation [/INST] and Development, and legal changes needed to enter -- covering land ownership, finance and currency movements -- should ease life for foreign investors. </s> |
743 | <s>[INST] A new securities law now being [/INST] drafted aims to remove regulations that foreign investors hate. </s> |
744 | <s>[INST] Portugal 1-Year Change: 4.4% 3-Year Change: 44% Portugal's [/INST] minority Socialist government should have little trouble pushing through an austere 1997 budget. </s> |
745 | <s>[INST] And steps have already been [/INST] taken to speed up Portugal's privatization program. </s> |
746 | <s>[INST] But that very success poses a danger: A [/INST] flood of new shares onto the market may worry investors, sending stock prices down. </s> |
747 | <s>[INST] Russia 1-Year Change: 54% [/INST] 3-Year Change: N.A. Hold onto your money. </s> |
748 | <s>[INST] The moment of truth is July 3, when a [/INST] scheduled runoff election for the presidency pits incumbent Boris Yeltsin against Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov. </s> |
749 | <s>[INST] A win for Mr. Yeltsin could bring a stretch [/INST] of certainty and maybe even a second wind for reform, on which Russian asset values could soar. </s> |
750 | <s>[INST] A Zyuganov victory would likely bring attempts to turn back the clock [/INST] to nationalization and state planning, leading to confusion, possible civil strife and, needless to say, a stark stretch for foreign investors. </s> |
751 | <s>[INST] Singapore 1-Year Change: 1.4% 3-Year Change: 62% Singapore is known as [/INST] Southeast Asia's safest haven for equity investors -- a reputation that is both the island's greatest strength and its weakness. </s> |
752 | <s>[INST] Conversely, when other markets have [/INST] their periodic wild bursts, Singapore languishes by comparison. </s> |
753 | <s>[INST] This steadiness appears likely to continue: The prospect of general [/INST] elections, due by next April but widely expected in early fall, is being viewed as a nonevent. </s> |
754 | <s>[INST] Indeed, not even the January heart attack [/INST] and subsequent surgery of Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew ruffled the Singapore markets. </s> |
755 | <s>[INST] South Africa 1-Year Change: 24% 3-Year Change: 80% Despite recent bumps [/INST] over the plunge of the rand, South African investments -- especially in cyclical and resource stocks -- still look attractive. </s> |
756 | <s>[INST] Many economists now think the [/INST] rand is oversold and will rally modestly. </s> |
757 | <s>[INST] And while the Mandela/ANC government's go-slow approach [/INST] to economic reform has caused some jolts, it has also brought political stability. </s> |
758 | <s>[INST] The smart money believes the [/INST] government is genuinely dedicated to a free-market course. </s> |
759 | <s>[INST] South Korea 1-Year Change: -1.1% 3-Year Change: [/INST] 25% Expect South Korean markets to open up further to foreign investors. </s> |
760 | <s>[INST] Seoul has promised to give foreigners access to more [/INST] Korean shares; to qualify for membership in the OECD this year, Seoul will promise further liberalization. </s> |
761 | <s>[INST] On the glum side, the administration of President Kim Young Sam, [/INST] which has made great strides in deregulating the economy, may get sidetracked by a presidential election in late 1997. </s> |
762 | <s>[INST] And North Korea always threatens [/INST] to get nasty and scare away investors. </s> |
763 | <s>[INST] Spain 1-Year Change: 23% 3-Year Change: 41% The 1997 draft budget [/INST] will be a key test for Spain's new center-right government, a loose coalition of the conservative Partido Popular and regional parties. </s> |
764 | <s>[INST] Unless the budget, to be drawn up this fall, [/INST] is very austere, Spain has little chance of meeting the requirements for European monetary union in 1999. </s> |
765 | <s>[INST] And bickering among the coalition [/INST] partners could hamper economic policy on a national level. </s> |
766 | <s>[INST] Sri Lanka 1-Year Change: -7.1% 3-Year [/INST] Change: 11% The key is the civil war in the north. </s> |
767 | <s>[INST] If the Tamil Tiger separatists are put down, the budget deficit would probably [/INST] shrink, thanks to a decline in military expenditures, and prospects would brighten for the economy, which averaged 6% annual GDP growth from 1989 to 1994. </s> |
768 | <s>[INST] Sweden 1-Year Change: 34% 3-Year Change: 91% The government is finally [/INST] reducing the huge budget deficit, and the country has a savvy finance minister in Erik Asbrink, former chairman of the Riksbank. </s> |
769 | <s>[INST] But the more the government slashes, [/INST] the more it risks alienating the unions and the left. </s> |
770 | <s>[INST] Foreign investors are another Achilles' [/INST] heel: They own 31% of the stock market. </s> |
771 | <s>[INST] If U.S. investors decide to bail out [/INST] for any reason, the market is in for a rough ride. </s> |
772 | <s>[INST] Switzerland 1-Year Change: 18% 3-Year Change: 82% Keep an eye on [/INST] the strong Swiss franc, which has hampered Swiss competitiveness and helped drive the merger of drug giants Ciba-Geigy and Sandoz. </s> |
773 | <s>[INST] Taiwan 1-Year Change: 3.5% 3-Year Change: 50% The [/INST] real worry: Will China try to force this island of 21 million to reunify? </s> |
774 | <s>[INST] Beijing's anger at Taiwan's drift toward autonomy was [/INST] clear in missile tests and military exercises leading up to Taiwan's presidential election in March. </s> |
775 | <s>[INST] Beijing could interfere with shipping, constrain Taiwanese companies [/INST] in China, or stop doing business with companies deemed too cozy with Taiwan. </s> |
776 | <s>[INST] Any such step could drive [/INST] down the local stock market or the Taiwan dollar. </s> |
777 | <s>[INST] Thailand 1-Year Change: -4.3% 3-Year Change: 81% Beware the [/INST] current-account deficit, which ballooned to 8.1% of economic output in 1995, and inflation, which hit 5.8%. </s> |
778 | <s>[INST] And watch the baht: There's a slight chance that [/INST] government efforts to scare away fickle short-term capital inflows could lead to a run on the currency. </s> |
779 | <s>[INST] But the top concern is the health of King Bhumipol [/INST] Adulyadej, 68, who plays a crucial unifying role; he was treated twice for heart problems in 1995. </s> |
780 | <s>[INST] Also, nonperforming loans are rising, with [/INST] finance companies and banks heavily exposed to the shaky property sector. </s> |
781 | <s>[INST] A sharp rise in interest rates or [/INST] other economic shock could bring down weaker property and finance companies. </s> |
782 | <s>[INST] Turkey 1-Year Change: -12% 3-Year Change: 19% Parliament has voted to [/INST] probe corruption charges against former Prime Minister Tansu Ciller, the only Turkish leader many in the West seem to trust. </s> |
783 | <s>[INST] The investigation could endanger her [/INST] career, and Turkey's resurgent Islamists could again seek control. </s> |
784 | <s>[INST] Meanwhile, the deeply troubled social-security [/INST] and privatization agencies have to be fixed. </s> |
785 | <s>[INST] United Kingdom 1-Year Change: 8.4% 3-Year Change: [/INST] 29% Financial markets are nervous about a possible election later this year. </s> |
786 | <s>[INST] The ruling Conservative Party could be ousted in the [/INST] next election for prime minister as the Labor candidate, Tony Blair, continues to gain favor. </s> |
787 | <s>[INST] Market analysts are worried about recent interest-rate cuts: They suspect the Conservative Party has [/INST] been using monetary policies to quickly stimulate growth to win back public favor, a strategy that might backfire by sparking inflation and thus undermining asset values. </s> |
788 | <s>[INST] Venezuela 1-Year Change: 40% 3-Year Change: 6.9% The lifting of [/INST] many foreign-exchange and interest-rate controls resulted in a bull market for stocks in the first half of 1996. </s> |
789 | <s>[INST] But the country is also likely [/INST] to have inflation as high as 100% this year. </s> |
790 | <s>[INST] Moreover, Venezuela still hasn't started the adjustments that the rest [/INST] of Latin America began in the 1980s: Its banking system, which collapsed in 1994, is still fragile. </s> |
791 | <s>[INST] Investors should watch closely to see whether Venezuela sells [/INST] some of its state-owned companies, reduces its spending and gets its huge local debt obligations under control. </s> |
792 | <s>[INST] Zimbabwe 1-Year Change: 64% 3-Year Change: N.A. The stock market has [/INST] seen its ups and downs: In 1993, it was among the world's fastest-growing, after being the world's poorest performer in 1992. </s> |
793 | <s>[INST] But drought, escalating economic pressures [/INST] and political corruption have taken their toll. </s> |
794 | <s>[INST] Zimbabwe is in a long-term economic decline, [/INST] and the 16-year presidency of Robert Mugabe has turned into a one-party ``democracy. </s> |
795 | <s>[INST] '' Crushing taxes, a swelling deficit [/INST] and rising unemployment don't augur well for the future. </s> |
796 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 193 of 500 Argentine farmers expect boom from lofty [/INST] grain prices Author: Friedland, Jonathan Publication info: Wall Street Journal , Eastern edition [New York, N.Y] 04 June 1996: A14. </s> |
797 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: Even if the weather in the [/INST] US grain belt improves, Argentine farmers are already having their best year since the 1970s. </s> |
798 | <s>[INST] Just as they began selling their harvest in January, [/INST] a severe drought in the US sent corn and wheat prices soaring to 15-year highs. </s> |
799 | <s>[INST] Full text: PERGAMINO, Argentina -- Arturo Motta [/INST] scans a fax of weather forecasts for Iowa, Kansas and Minnesota. </s> |
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