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800 | <s>[INST] "It's a disaster," says the sales manager of [/INST] Granos del Plata SRL, a big silo owner here in Argentina's seemingly endless agricultural heartland. </s> |
801 | <s>[INST] Even if the weather in the U.S. grain [/INST] belt improves, Argentine farmers are already having their best year since the 1970s. </s> |
802 | <s>[INST] Just as they began selling their harvest in January, [/INST] a severe drought in the U.S. sent corn and wheat prices soaring to 15-year highs. </s> |
803 | <s>[INST] Not only that, says Argentina's agriculture secretary, Felipe Sola, [/INST] global supply and demand for these grains indicates prices will stay high for two more years. </s> |
804 | <s>[INST] Big profits and good prospects have set off a boom in new [/INST] investment on the Argentine pampa humeda, a fertile plain nearly the size of France that is one of the world's great breadbaskets. </s> |
805 | <s>[INST] And the local agent for the U.S. farm tractor maker, Deere [/INST] & Co., in Pergamino, a town of 80,000 in the heart of the pampa humeda, has a four-month order backlog. </s> |
806 | <s>[INST] Economist Deborah Giorgi expects the combination of new investment and high yields [/INST] brought on by increased fertilizer use and better farming methods to produce a big jump in Argentina's agricultural exports in the coming years. </s> |
807 | <s>[INST] All the ingredients are there, she says, for [/INST] Argentina to take its place again among the world's most dynamic farm economies. </s> |
808 | <s>[INST] Despite the blessing of rich soil [/INST] and generally fair skies, Argentine farmers have suffered in recent years. </s> |
809 | <s>[INST] Decades of high inflation, a lack of [/INST] infrastructure development and erratic government policies made it tough to make money. </s> |
810 | <s>[INST] Towns like Pergamino lost [/INST] families to the lure of Buenos Aires. </s> |
811 | <s>[INST] "We were punished in every [/INST] imaginable way," says Juan Buchaca, a 72-year-old Pergamino farmer. </s> |
812 | <s>[INST] It didn't get much better when [/INST] President Carlos Menem's government stabilized the economy in 1991. </s> |
813 | <s>[INST] Agronomist Jorge Balsells says many [/INST] farmers, particularly small ones, misread the implications of stability. </s> |
814 | <s>[INST] "They borrowed like always, thinking [/INST] that inflation would bail them out," he says. </s> |
815 | <s>[INST] The sector is still saddled with [/INST] an estimated $6 billion in debt, mainly owed to state banks. </s> |
816 | <s>[INST] Despite these woes, the broader changes under way in [/INST] the Argentine economy laid the groundwork for farmers to take advantage of the current high prices. </s> |
817 | <s>[INST] The privatization of ports, railways and highways slashed transport costs, while big exporters like Minneapolis-based [/INST] Cargill Inc. invested millions of dollars in warehousing and processing facilities to serve growing demand in the Mercosur trade area, which includes Argentina and its larger neighbor, Brazil. </s> |
818 | <s>[INST] Mr. Buchaca, for instance, three years ago bought an [/INST] irrigation system to cover part of his 2,500-acre spread and this year will buy another one. </s> |
819 | <s>[INST] Nationwide, fertilizer use has [/INST] climbed threefold in the past five years. </s> |
820 | <s>[INST] And increasingly, large foreign investors, including American [/INST] financier George Soros and Italy's Luciano Benetton, are placing bets on Argentine agriculture. </s> |
821 | <s>[INST] The new professionalism in Argentine farming [/INST] can be seen in operations like Cosechar en Argentina SA. </s> |
822 | <s>[INST] This $7 million fund, which is replenished annually, [/INST] leases almost 50,000 acres of land around the country to create a portfolio of crops. </s> |
823 | <s>[INST] It uses its economies of scale to get [/INST] a good deal on inputs and labor and hedges its position in futures markets. </s> |
824 | <s>[INST] "You can do an awful lot [/INST] with these high prices," says Christopher McMaster, a Cosechar director. </s> |
825 | <s>[INST] "Opportunity is knocking for Argentine [/INST] farmers to reclaim markets and improve their returns". </s> |
826 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 220 of 500 Renewed Growth Seen for Argentina As Nation [/INST] Recuperates From Recession Author: Friedland, Jonathan Publication info: Wall Street Journal , Eastern edition [New York, N.Y] 14 May 1996: A16. </s> |
827 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: "We're no longer in a [/INST] downward spiral, but I don't expect a dramatic rebound," says economist Pedro Lacoste. </s> |
828 | <s>[INST] Agrees Agostino Rocca, president of Organizacion [/INST] Techint, a conglomerate: "The recovery will be slow and cautious". </s> |
829 | <s>[INST] Mr. Lacoste and other economists worry that the pickup in economic activity won't [/INST] be enough to feed the kind of increase in tax revenues needed for Argentina to meet its commitments to the International Monetary Fund. </s> |
830 | <s>[INST] Tax collections have fallen short of [/INST] target for three out of the last four months. </s> |
831 | <s>[INST] Fiscal performance "is what investors will be [/INST] watching closely," says Bear Stearns & Co. managing director Tulio Vera. </s> |
832 | <s>[INST] "I think we've done a good [/INST] job positioning ourselves for the recovery," says Mr. [Domingo Cavallo]. </s> |
833 | <s>[INST] "Within the next few months, we'll know whether [/INST] we have a new boom on our hands or whether we've been irresponsibly optimistic". </s> |
834 | <s>[INST] Full text: AuthorAffiliation Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal After a [/INST] weak first quarter, "We expect rapid expansion for the remainder of the year," says Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo, in an interview. </s> |
835 | <s>[INST] He adds that he is sticking [/INST] to his 1996 gross domestic product growth forecast of 5%. </s> |
836 | <s>[INST] That would be a striking recovery [/INST] from last year, when Argentina's economy contracted by 4.4%. </s> |
837 | <s>[INST] Then, scores of small banks folded, hundreds of [/INST] small businesses closed their doors and tens of thousands of workers lost their jobs. </s> |
838 | <s>[INST] The government worked overtime to maintain confidence in the [/INST] banking system and the fixed link between the local currency and the U.S. dollar, which trade one-for-one. </s> |
839 | <s>[INST] Mr. Cavallo's optimism has come under fire from businessmen [/INST] and private sector economists who believe that at best Argentina will grow by 3% this year. </s> |
840 | <s>[INST] They say that despite the recovery of the financial [/INST] system, near-record unemployment, fears of further job losses, and skimpy wage increases will keep consumers cautious. </s> |
841 | <s>[INST] "We're no longer in a downward spiral, [/INST] but I don't expect a dramatic rebound," says economist Pedro Lacoste. </s> |
842 | <s>[INST] Agrees Agostino Rocca, president of Organizacion [/INST] Techint, a conglomerate: "The recovery will be slow and cautious". </s> |
843 | <s>[INST] Mr. Lacoste and other economists worry that the pickup in economic activity won't [/INST] be enough to feed the kind of increase in tax revenues needed for Argentina to meet its commitments to the International Monetary Fund. </s> |
844 | <s>[INST] Tax collections have fallen short of [/INST] target for three out of the last four months. </s> |
845 | <s>[INST] Fiscal performance "is what investors will be [/INST] watching closely," says Bear Stearns & Co. managing director Tulio Vera. </s> |
846 | <s>[INST] Worries abound too over the [/INST] impact of further increases in U.S. interest rates. </s> |
847 | <s>[INST] Because of tight links between the Argentine peso and the [/INST] U.S. dollar, tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank feeds through almost immediately to the Argentine banking system. </s> |
848 | <s>[INST] Interest rates here are already far [/INST] higher than the country's near-zero inflation rate would suggest. </s> |
849 | <s>[INST] Mr. Cavallo has worked to cushion any potential [/INST] impact of higher rates by cutting taxes on construction activity and mortgage lending. </s> |
850 | <s>[INST] He has also sought to reduce domestic [/INST] borrowing costs by placing government debt in international markets rather than at home. </s> |
851 | <s>[INST] During the first quarter alone, Argentina raised $2.4 [/INST] billion offshore at spreads often better than those achieved by other Latin borrowers. </s> |
852 | <s>[INST] "I think we've done a good [/INST] job positioning ourselves for the recovery," says Mr. Cavallo. </s> |
853 | <s>[INST] "Within the next few months, we'll know whether [/INST] we have a new boom on our hands or whether we've been irresponsibly optimistic". </s> |
854 | <s>[INST] BUENOS AIRES -- Argentina's economy is finally starting to rebound [/INST] from a nasty recession caused by last year's regional credit crunch and a collapse in domestic spending. </s> |
855 | <s>[INST] Economists estimate that industrial production recovered in [/INST] April, after falling year-on-year for each of the previous 12 months. </s> |
856 | <s>[INST] Sales of goods and services ranging [/INST] from automobiles to telephone calls are starting to pick up. </s> |
857 | <s>[INST] ___ Document 263 of 500 The Americas: Cavallo's Faustian bargain with [/INST] the IMF Author: Krause, Martin Publication info: Wall Street Journal , Eastern edition [New York, N.Y] 12 Apr 1996: A13. </s> |
858 | <s>[INST] accountid=28034 Abstract: Martin Krause discusses the approval by Domingo Cavallo, minister [/INST] of economics in Argentina, to extend the value-added tax rate of 21%, while the country is suffering from a severe recession. </s> |
859 | <s>[INST] Full text: From the first days of his [/INST] tenure as minister of economics in Argentina, Domingo Cavallo has demonstrated a split economic personality. </s> |
860 | <s>[INST] On the one hand, he has [/INST] insisted that lower and fairer taxes mean a more vibrant economy. </s> |
861 | <s>[INST] He has simplified a burdensome tax [/INST] structure, reduced tax evasion and lowered some tax rates. </s> |
862 | <s>[INST] He has also increased [/INST] total tax revenues by a handsome amount. </s> |
863 | <s>[INST] At the same time he has almost doubled public expenditures, [/INST] implemented housing projects to spur demand and granted special protectionist privileges to the car and textile industries. </s> |
864 | <s>[INST] Mr. Cavallo has shown himself [/INST] to be both a Keynesian and a supply-sider. </s> |
865 | <s>[INST] To the dismay of classical liberals he has [/INST] shifted from one to the other depending on the impulse of the moment. </s> |
866 | <s>[INST] In the latest turn of events, [/INST] Mr. Cavallo has once again allowed his Keynesian tendencies to rule. </s> |
867 | <s>[INST] With the country in the throes of a severe recession, and [/INST] unemployment hovering around 18%, the minister has approved the extension of the punishingly high value-added tax (VAT) rate of 21%. </s> |
868 | <s>[INST] This rate, raised from 18% in 1995, was billed as [/INST] a temporary, "Tequila effect" emergency measure back then -- with a slated rollback date of March 1996. </s> |
869 | <s>[INST] Add to this the government's cancellation of the [/INST] plan to reduce the prohibitively high payroll taxes, and you have a recipe for stagnation. </s> |
870 | <s>[INST] Cavallo-watchers who have applauded the minister's courageous convertibility [/INST] plan and his supply-side convictions are sure to be stumped by these latest moves. </s> |
871 | <s>[INST] But political expediency and an unexpected ally [/INST] found in none other than the International Monetary Fund may explain a lot. </s> |
872 | <s>[INST] In 1994 a high-profile Mr. Cavallo pulled Argentina from [/INST] the IMF's Extended Funded Facilities Program, arguing against IMF austerity measures that regularly prescribe higher taxes. </s> |
873 | <s>[INST] In an explicit defense of supply-side economics, Mr. Cavallo warned Argentina about big government [/INST] and high taxes: "[T]he propensity to spend in Argentina is so powerful, that the only way to control the increase in expenditures is to reduce tax rates. </s> |
874 | <s>[INST] Those who follow the IMF criteria -- that we [/INST] should increase taxes or avoid lowering them in order to generate a fiscal surplus -- are wrong. </s> |
875 | <s>[INST] They have no experience with the propensity to spend in [/INST] Argentina, which leads any surplus to be an incentive to increase government expenditures and to be short-lived". </s> |
876 | <s>[INST] A little more than a month after [/INST] expelling the IMF from Argentina, the "Tequila effect" hit the region. </s> |
877 | <s>[INST] Mr. Cavallo promptly put his supply-side notions in the refrigerator and reached a [/INST] new agreement with the IMF, replete with traditional IMF austerity measures -- higher value-added taxes, higher import duties, and the maintenance of high payroll taxes. </s> |
878 | <s>[INST] By midyear, with the unemployment rate reaching 18%, Mr. Cavallo admitted the government was wrong to [/INST] cancel the reduction of payroll taxes and reverted to his lower-taxes position, saying the VAT rate would be reduced to 18% when the temporary increase expired on March 31, 1996. </s> |
879 | <s>[INST] President Carlos Saul Menem himself, [/INST] in late January 1996, promised VAT relief as well. </s> |
880 | <s>[INST] But that same month an IMF delegation arrived in Argentina, and before you could say "tax and spend" the [/INST] government was asking Congress for the power to keep the 21% rate until it could be sure that lowering it would not jeopardize the fiscal account -- a $2.5 billion fiscal deficit authorized by the IMF. </s> |
881 | <s>[INST] Mr. Cavallo's economic team claims [/INST] that 1995 government expenditures showed "downward inflexibility". </s> |
882 | <s>[INST] The truth is that Argentina's federal government [/INST] is a bloated, inefficient entity that saps the private sector of productive resources. </s> |
883 | <s>[INST] The additional VAT revenues and an increased public debt have allowed Mr. [/INST] Cavallo to cover for government expenses, which were the same in 1995 as in 1994 and almost double those of 1990. </s> |
884 | <s>[INST] The debate rages on as to whether an [/INST] increased VAT -- or any tax hike -- actually results in higher revenues. </s> |
885 | <s>[INST] Supply-siders say that a lower rate [/INST] allows for more economic activity and less incentive for evasion. </s> |
886 | <s>[INST] But the IMF thinks [/INST] otherwise, and Mr. Cavallo needs the IMF. </s> |
887 | <s>[INST] Ever since his relationship with President Menem turned from neutral to negative [/INST] last year, the minister has had a problem finding allies among fellow government officials and even more so in the opposition. </s> |
888 | <s>[INST] In the absence of others, [/INST] the IMF looks like a powerful ally. </s> |
889 | <s>[INST] Thus, the world is watching [/INST] this odd couple in a most unlikely tango. </s> |
890 | <s>[INST] Has Domingo Cavallo, supposed champion of [/INST] market reform and hard money in Argentina, lost his way? </s> |
891 | <s>[INST] Happily, Mr. Cavallo's cozy IMF relationship [/INST] looks more like one of convenience than true love. </s> |
892 | <s>[INST] His commitment to classical liberal economics has always [/INST] been suspect, but through it all he has maintained some semblance of a reform agenda. </s> |
893 | <s>[INST] In March the "political wing" of the government, threatened by a nationwide general strike, [/INST] was pushing for the establishment of a Council of Jobs and Labor -- industry leaders and labor unions making proposals to solve the problem of unemployment. </s> |
894 | <s>[INST] This sounded like a throw-back [/INST] to the old corporatist state to Mr. Cavallo. </s> |
895 | <s>[INST] Fearing a direct attack on his economic [/INST] program, he voiced his opposition openly, sending jitters through Argentina's financial markets. </s> |
896 | <s>[INST] When a watered-down version of the council was inaugurated by [/INST] Mr. Menem, Mr. Cavallo called a press conference, making public the Letter of Intention with the IMF. </s> |
897 | <s>[INST] A part of the commitment, he pointed [/INST] out, is a further move to deregulate the labor market and health insurance. </s> |
898 | <s>[INST] Thus the IMF has become an [/INST] involuntary ally in Mr. Cavallo's battle within the government. </s> |
899 | <s>[INST] While Mr. Cavallo has been forced to accept IMF [/INST] austerity measures, he has teamed up with a formidable force in meeting his own goals. </s> |
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