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distributed within or around metropolitan areas due to anthropogenic influences. Besides, |
agricultural land is another primary land use type of low-biodiversity landscape [30]. |
Conflicting areas of inverse assessment maps (Figure 6a,b) imply fields with relatively high |
value, but which can nevertheless be occupied, and are distributed in a pattern similar to |
that of overlapped areas in the top 20% assessment (Figure 5a,b). As shown in Table 2, |
under the Trend scenario, 3209.1 km2 of unsuitable area (in red) are estimated to be taken |
and developed, while in the Alternative scenario, only 2262.9 km2 of lands would be |
Land 2022, 11, 2182 11 of 23 |
developed improperly, assumably protecting nearly 30% of cells from misemployment and |
risk of degradation. Using the same compact land-use patterns, about 20% of low-richness |
areas suitable for development and 14.2% of other potential greenspace are planned to be |
reserved sustainably for the more distant future. To sum up, the conservation effects of the |
Alternative scenarios are exceptional vis-à-vis the Trend scenario and explicitly address the |
idea of impact avoidance and the compact city under the inverse assessments of SCP. |
Table 2. Related area changes assessed by lowest 40% ranking. |
Lowest 40% Trend Alternative Proportion of Changes |
Area developed unsuitably |
(above lowest 40%) 3209.1 km2 2262.9 km2 −29.5% of Trend scenario |
Area developed suitably |
(lowest 40%) 7279.1 km2 5772.0 km2 −20.1% of Trend scenario |
Potential area (lowest 40%) 10,588.3 km2 12,095.4 km2 +14.2% of Trend scenario |
3.4. Close-Up Assessment and Analysis |
The density of conservation lands in the southwest corner of the Florida peninsula is |
generally higher than the rest of our study site, which might overlap with highly urbanized |
areas (such as Lee County mentioned in Section 2.1). Conservation conflicts between |
human settlements and wildlife habitats can be exaggerated and appear more severe within |
such places. As Figure 7 shows, the area between Lee County (northwest) and Collier |
County (southeast) clearly uncovers the differences between two regional land use patterns |
and their corresponding influences, resulting in violating the territories of top 20% priority. |
As the business-as-usual development scenario shows in Figure 7b, human beings would |
possibly conquer adjacent tracts of conservation lands, inevitably leading to habitat loss |
of Florida panthers, American alligators and other major fauna [48]. On the contrary, |
following the Alternative compact development pattern, these ecologically significant |
patches are precisely identified and well reserved in an attempt to combat excessive urban |
expansion (Figure 7a). |
For the sake of sustainability, ecologically less crucial areas should be prioritized for |
future development rather than occupying other existing greenfield sites. Without the |
awareness of sustainable development, people tend to exploit land resources at the cost |
of ecological values. In Figure 8, an example of areas across Desoto County (north) and |
Charlotte County (south) presents a pronounced contrast between Florida 2070 projections |
from the viewpoint of inverse conservation prioritization. Figure 8b can be regarded as |
the ramifications in which the current development pattern might result, where Desoto |
County’s vast acreage of suitable lands for new construction is neglected. However, |
substantial areas with higher biodiversity value are intensively affected by anthropogenic |
activities in Charlotte County. To differ from the Trend scenario, an increased proportion |
of future development does occur within cells with low conservation priority under the |
Alternative plan (Figure 8a). Unfortunately, some valuable greenfield sites close to the |
metropolitan border may nonetheless be invaded by humans and likely transformed into |
suburban and exurban residential areas. |
Given the above, close-up assessment and analysis are intended to insinuate detailed |
planning conflicts no matter whether in the top 20% or lowest 40% priority areas and henceforth unfold the merits and demerits of two scenarios: the ecosystem-wise effectiveness of |
Alternative Florida 2070 projection could indeed be evaluated and verified by Zonation |
analysis results; on the other hand, conservation threats and challenges that Trend Florida |
2070 projection might bring about are equally unignorable and undeniable. Ranging from |
identification of valuable lands (protected & agricultural) to excluding them in potential |
development, these two projection assumptions of the Alternative process explain why the |
compact development pattern can plausibly contribute more to Florida conservation efforts |
and in terms of BEBR’s population projection, offering a planning-wise resolution for the |
ongoing human–wildlife conundrum. |
Land 2022, 11, 2182 Land 2022, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 2313 of 25 |
Figure 7. Close-comparison between top 20% prioritization and Florida 2070 Trend and Alternative. |
(a) 2070 Alternative scenario overlapped with the top 20% priority; (b) 2070 Trend scenario overlapped with the top 20% priority. |
For the sake of sustainability, ecologically less crucial areas should be prioritized for |
future development rather than occupying other existing greenfield sites. Without the |
awareness of sustainable development, people tend to exploit land resources at the cost |
of ecological values. In Figure 8, an example of areas across Desoto County (north) and |
Charlotte County (south) presents a pronounced contrast between Florida 2070 projections from the viewpoint of inverse conservation prioritization. Figure 8b can be regarded |
as the ramifications in which the current development pattern might result, where Desoto |
County’s vast acreage of suitable lands for new construction is neglected. However, substantial areas with higher biodiversity value are intensively affected by anthropogenic activities in Charlotte County. To differ from the Trend scenario, an increased proportion of |
future development does occur within cells with low conservation priority under the Alternative plan (Figure 8a). Unfortunately, some valuable greenfield sites close to the metropolitan border may nonetheless be invaded by humans and likely transformed into suburban and exurban residential areas. |
Given the above, close-up assessment and analysis are intended to insinuate detailed |
planning conflicts no matter whether in the top 20% or lowest 40% priority areas and |
henceforth unfold the merits and demerits of two scenarios: the ecosystem-wise effectiveness of Alternative Florida 2070 projection could indeed be evaluated and verified by Zonation analysis results; on the other hand, conservation threats and challenges that Trend |
Florida 2070 projection might bring about are equally unignorable and undeniable. Ranging from identification of valuable lands (protected & agricultural) to excluding them in |
potential development, these two projection assumptions of the Alternative process explain why the compact development pattern can plausibly contribute more to Florida conservation efforts and in terms of BEBR’s population projection, offering a planning-wise |
resolution for the ongoing human–wildlife conundrum. |
Figure 7. Close-comparison between top 20% prioritization and Florida 2070 Trend and Alternative. |
(a) 2070 Alternative scenario overlapped with the top 20% priority; (b) 2070 Trend scenario overlapped |
with the top 20% priority. |
Land 2022, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of 25 |
Figure 8. Close-comparison between lowest 40% prioritization and Florida 2070 Trend and Alternative. (a) 2070 Alternative scenario overlapped with the lowest 40% priority; (b) 2070 Trend scenario |
overlapped with the lowest 40% priority. |
4. Discussion |
The purpose of this study is to compare the human-wise development projections |
with ecosystem-wise conservation needs in map formats, whereas it historically displays |
a timeline of Florida’s land cover and land use shifts, underscoring current ecologically |
vital areas along with the highest potential and safest parcels for new constructions. Application of GIS and Zonation 4 software, integrating multi-dimensional aspects of key |
variables comprehensively, can precisely reveal Florida’s struggling situation between |
Figure 8. Close-comparison between lowest 40% prioritization and Florida 2070 Trend and Alternative. (a) 2070 Alternative scenario overlapped with the lowest 40% priority; (b) 2070 Trend scenario |
overlapped with the lowest 40% priority. |
Land 2022, 11, 2182 13 of 23 |
4. Discussion |
The purpose of this study is to compare the human-wise development projections |
with ecosystem-wise conservation needs in map formats, whereas it historically displays a |
timeline of Florida’s land cover and land use shifts, underscoring current ecologically vital |
areas along with the highest potential and safest parcels for new constructions. Application |
of GIS and Zonation 4 software, integrating multi-dimensional aspects of key variables |
comprehensively, can precisely reveal Florida’s struggling situation between wildlife conservation and human development. Based on this analysis, our study serves as a reminder |
informing Florida conservation efforts about the crucial necessity of balancing or mitigating |
the conflicts between conservation and anthropogenic activities. |
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