patrickbdevaney/mia9 · Datasets at Hugging Face

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• Human alterations to freshwater inflow into
estuaries, such as increased overland flow due
to urbanization or decreased flow caused by
dams and water withdrawals, have changed
estuarine circulation patterns, salinity regimes,
and patterns of animal use (37).
W H A T I S P R O B A B L E :
• Since 1979, there probably has been a change in
the type of rainfall in the tropics, resulting in more
frequent heavy and light rains, and less frequent
moderate rains (38).
• If the frequency of extreme rainfall events increases,
it will exacerbate already altered conditions in
estuaries (39, 40).
• Rainfall in south Florida may be decreasing from
changes in land use and land cover, such as urbanization and the reduction of wetlands (31).
W H A T I S P O S S I B L E :
• Air pollution may cause more rainfall during weekdays (41).
• Based on models, reduced rainfall may accompany
changes in land use such as urban development
(31).
• If the frequency of extreme rainfall events increases
(39), or river volume increases and the timing of
freshwater flows to estuaries changes, it will exacerbate alreadyaltered conditions in estuaries such as
increased nutrient delivery and eutrophication (40,
42).


IV. “Drivers” of Climate Change
and Their Effects on Florida’s
Ocean and Coastal Resources
E F F ECT : Altered Frequency and Intensity of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes
The development of tropical storms and hurricanes depends not only on sea surface temperature and water
vapor content, but also on factors such as wind shear, which plays a significant role. Recent examples of rapid
storm intensification are associated with storms passing over deep, warm ocean pools and through regions of
low wind shear (43). Because of changes in methodology, it is difficult to obtain comparable data for tropical
storms and hurricanes over the period of record, which dates from the mid 19th century.
13
IV
W H A T W E K N O W :
• There is no clear, longterm trend in the number
of tropical storms (5, 44).
• There are changes in storm frequency over a
period of a few decades. We are currently in
an active period and may eventually enter a
less active period (45).
• Intense hurricanes and active seasons have
occurred regardless of trends in seasurface
temperatures (46).
• Storms can occur at any time of year. Over 97
percent of North Atlantic tropical storm activity
occurs from June to November (47).
W H A T I S P R O B A B L E :
• Storm frequency may decrease with increasing
seasurface temperatures (48).
• Wind shear will increase in a warming planet, thus
reducing the intensity and frequency of storms (49,
50).
W H A T I S P O S S I B L E :
• Severe hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) may
become more frequent with increasing seasurface
temperatures (51).
Photo courtesy of NASA
IV. “Drivers” of Climate Change
and Their Effects on Florida’s
Ocean and Coastal Resources
DR IVE R : Increasing Ocean Temperature
Florida, situated between the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, is subject to contrasting environmental effects
because each body of water has its own characteristic temperature regimes and patterns of change.
14
IV
W H A T W E K N O W :
• There has been a cyclical rise in sea level and
global ocean temperatures (52).
• Seasurface temperatures have been steadily
rising in tropical and subtropical waters.
Between the 1950s and 1990, they rose by
an average of 0.5 degrees Fahenheit (0.3
degrees Celsius) (53).
• The year 2005 was the warmest in the wider
Caribbean than any in the last 100 years, and
coincided with the Western Hemisphere Warm
Pool being in an expanded state (52, 53).
• Global average seasurface temperature has
risen 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit (0.6 degrees
Celsius) over the past 100 years (5).
W H A T I S P R O B A B L E :
• Seasurface temperatures will continue to rise at least
at the rate they have been rising for the past 100
years (5).
• As seasurface temperatures continue to rise, the
coastal and marine environments most stressed by
nutrients from landbased sources of pollution will
be most adversely affected (53).
W H A T I S P O S S I B L E :
• If the temperature of Florida’s ocean waters increases
at the same rate that the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change models predict for the Gulf of
Mexico and Atlantic as a whole, they would
increase by 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees

• Human alterations to freshwater inflow into

estuaries, such as increased overland flow due

to urbanization or decreased flow caused by

dams and water withdrawals, have changed

estuarine circulation patterns, salinity regimes,

and patterns of animal use (37).

W H A T I S P R O B A B L E :

• Since 1979, there probably has been a change in

the type of rainfall in the tropics, resulting in more

frequent heavy and light rains, and less frequent

moderate rains (38).

• If the frequency of extreme rainfall events increases,

it will exacerbate already altered conditions in

estuaries (39, 40).

• Rainfall in south Florida may be decreasing from

changes in land use and land cover, such as urbanization and the reduction of wetlands (31).

W H A T I S P O S S I B L E :

• Air pollution may cause more rainfall during weekdays (41).

• Based on models, reduced rainfall may accompany

changes in land use such as urban development

(31).

• If the frequency of extreme rainfall events increases

(39), or river volume increases and the timing of

freshwater flows to estuaries changes, it will exacerbate alreadyaltered conditions in estuaries such as

increased nutrient delivery and eutrophication (40,

42).

IV. “Drivers” of Climate Change

and Their Effects on Florida’s

Ocean and Coastal Resources

E F F ECT : Altered Frequency and Intensity of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

The development of tropical storms and hurricanes depends not only on sea surface temperature and water

vapor content, but also on factors such as wind shear, which plays a significant role. Recent examples of rapid

storm intensification are associated with storms passing over deep, warm ocean pools and through regions of

low wind shear (43). Because of changes in methodology, it is difficult to obtain comparable data for tropical

storms and hurricanes over the period of record, which dates from the mid 19th century.

13

IV

W H A T W E K N O W :

• There is no clear, longterm trend in the number

of tropical storms (5, 44).

• There are changes in storm frequency over a

period of a few decades. We are currently in

an active period and may eventually enter a

less active period (45).

• Intense hurricanes and active seasons have

occurred regardless of trends in seasurface

temperatures (46).

• Storms can occur at any time of year. Over 97

percent of North Atlantic tropical storm activity

occurs from June to November (47).

W H A T I S P R O B A B L E :

• Storm frequency may decrease with increasing

seasurface temperatures (48).

• Wind shear will increase in a warming planet, thus

reducing the intensity and frequency of storms (49,

50).

W H A T I S P O S S I B L E :

• Severe hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) may

become more frequent with increasing seasurface

temperatures (51).

Photo courtesy of NASA

IV. “Drivers” of Climate Change

and Their Effects on Florida’s

Ocean and Coastal Resources

DR IVE R : Increasing Ocean Temperature

Florida, situated between the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, is subject to contrasting environmental effects

because each body of water has its own characteristic temperature regimes and patterns of change.

14

IV

W H A T W E K N O W :

• There has been a cyclical rise in sea level and

global ocean temperatures (52).

• Seasurface temperatures have been steadily

rising in tropical and subtropical waters.

Between the 1950s and 1990, they rose by

an average of 0.5 degrees Fahenheit (0.3

degrees Celsius) (53).

• The year 2005 was the warmest in the wider

Caribbean than any in the last 100 years, and

coincided with the Western Hemisphere Warm

Pool being in an expanded state (52, 53).

• Global average seasurface temperature has

risen 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit (0.6 degrees

Celsius) over the past 100 years (5).

W H A T I S P R O B A B L E :

• Seasurface temperatures will continue to rise at least

at the rate they have been rising for the past 100

years (5).

• As seasurface temperatures continue to rise, the

coastal and marine environments most stressed by

nutrients from landbased sources of pollution will

be most adversely affected (53).

W H A T I S P O S S I B L E :

• If the temperature of Florida’s ocean waters increases

at the same rate that the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change models predict for the Gulf of

Mexico and Atlantic as a whole, they would

increase by 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees