patrickbdevaney/mia9 · Datasets at Hugging Face

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economic impacts of climate change will occur
throughout the United States (17). These impacts
will be unevenly distributed across regions and
society, and negative impacts will outweigh
benefits for most sectors that provide goods and
services. The impacts will place immense strains
on public sector budgets. The secondary
impacts of climate change can include higher
prices, reduced incomes, and job losses.
. . . Negative impacts will outweigh bene
fits for most sectors that provide goods and
services. The impacts will place immense
strains on public sector budgets. The sec
ondary impacts of climate change can in
clude higher prices, reduced incomes, and
job losses.
7
III
8
III
The same study predicts that major impacts on
the southeast United States (including Florida)
will be felt most acutely in coastal infrastructure.
Moreover, forests, agriculture and fisheries,
water supplies, water quality, and energy
sources may be subject to considerable
change and damage. Many of these sectors
are closely linked. For example, energy supply
depends on cooling water availability; emergency preparedness on transportation, energy
supply, water availability, and more. Only a
few of these interrelationships typically enter
economic impact and cost assessments. These
indirect links need to be considered as well as
the economic cost assessments.
Another recent study also estimates the costs of
inaction for Florida, should the rate of greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked (18).
The study addresses both optimistic (rapid stabilization though greatly reduced emissions)
and pessimistic scenarios (no change in the
growth of emissions). The cost of inaction is the
difference between these two scenarios. For
just four categories of economic activity—
tourism, hurricanes, electric power, and real
estate—the cost of inaction ranged from $27
billion by 2025 (or 1.6 percent of the projected
gross state product) to $354 billion in 2100
(about 5 percent of the projected gross
state product). If estimates include other
sectors, such as agriculture, fisheries, insurance,
transportation, water systems, and ecosystem
damages, the cost of inaction is even greater.
Photo courtesy of Guy Weeks — Alligator Point
IV. “Drivers” of Climate Change
and Their Effects on Florida’s
Ocean and Coastal Resources
The further Floridians look into the future, the more uncertain are the predicted consequences of climate
change. This section identifies what is currently known, what is probable, and what is possible about the
drivers of climate change and their effects on Florida.
DR IVE R : Increasing Greenhouse Gases
Earth’s temperature is rising because the levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that retain
atmospheric heat are increasing. This increase is largely a consequence of human activities that use energy,
particularly fossil fuels such as oil and coal. All of these gases are absorbed by the oceans (19).
9
IV
W H A T W E K N O W :
• From 1980 to 1989, the carbon content of the
Earth’s atmosphere is estimated to have risen by
a rate of about 3.4 billion tons of carbon per
year, with an estimated error of ± 0.2 billion
tons (20, 21).
• Over the last 650,000 years, levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide have fluctuated between
180 to 280 parts per million by volume (5).
• The rate of change in increases in atmospheric
carbon dioxide has been about 100 times
faster in recent decades than over the past
650,000 years. Concentrations of other
greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous
oxide, have also increased significantly (5).
• Most of the increase in average atmospheric
temperatures since the mid20th century is due
to increases in greenhouse gases.
W H A T I S P R O B A B L E :
• Atmospheric carbon dioxide will continue to increase
at the rate of about 0.5 percent per year for at least
the next few decades (22).
• Water quality will continue to change because of
the absorption of increased greenhouse gases by
the oceans (23).
• Increases in pollutant emissions will result in the
increased introduction of nutrients and toxins into
surface waters.
• Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above
current rates would cause further warming and induce
many changes in the global climate system during
the 21st century that would very likely be larger than
those observed during the 20th century.
W H A T I S P O S S I B L E :
• Atmospheric carbon dioxide will stabilize if global
emissions are reduced by 30 percent or more despite
increases in global population (5).
• The rate of atmospheric greenhouse gas increase

economic impacts of climate change will occur

throughout the United States (17). These impacts

will be unevenly distributed across regions and

society, and negative impacts will outweigh

benefits for most sectors that provide goods and

services. The impacts will place immense strains

on public sector budgets. The secondary

impacts of climate change can include higher

prices, reduced incomes, and job losses.

. . . Negative impacts will outweigh bene

fits for most sectors that provide goods and

services. The impacts will place immense

strains on public sector budgets. The sec

ondary impacts of climate change can in

clude higher prices, reduced incomes, and

job losses.

7

III

8

III

The same study predicts that major impacts on

the southeast United States (including Florida)

will be felt most acutely in coastal infrastructure.

Moreover, forests, agriculture and fisheries,

water supplies, water quality, and energy

sources may be subject to considerable

change and damage. Many of these sectors

are closely linked. For example, energy supply

depends on cooling water availability; emergency preparedness on transportation, energy

supply, water availability, and more. Only a

few of these interrelationships typically enter

economic impact and cost assessments. These

indirect links need to be considered as well as

the economic cost assessments.

Another recent study also estimates the costs of

inaction for Florida, should the rate of greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked (18).

The study addresses both optimistic (rapid stabilization though greatly reduced emissions)

and pessimistic scenarios (no change in the

growth of emissions). The cost of inaction is the

difference between these two scenarios. For

just four categories of economic activity—

tourism, hurricanes, electric power, and real

estate—the cost of inaction ranged from $27

billion by 2025 (or 1.6 percent of the projected

gross state product) to $354 billion in 2100

(about 5 percent of the projected gross

state product). If estimates include other

sectors, such as agriculture, fisheries, insurance,

transportation, water systems, and ecosystem

damages, the cost of inaction is even greater.

Photo courtesy of Guy Weeks — Alligator Point

IV. “Drivers” of Climate Change

and Their Effects on Florida’s

Ocean and Coastal Resources

The further Floridians look into the future, the more uncertain are the predicted consequences of climate

change. This section identifies what is currently known, what is probable, and what is possible about the

drivers of climate change and their effects on Florida.

DR IVE R : Increasing Greenhouse Gases

Earth’s temperature is rising because the levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that retain

atmospheric heat are increasing. This increase is largely a consequence of human activities that use energy,

particularly fossil fuels such as oil and coal. All of these gases are absorbed by the oceans (19).

9

IV

W H A T W E K N O W :

• From 1980 to 1989, the carbon content of the

Earth’s atmosphere is estimated to have risen by

a rate of about 3.4 billion tons of carbon per

year, with an estimated error of ± 0.2 billion

tons (20, 21).

• Over the last 650,000 years, levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide have fluctuated between

180 to 280 parts per million by volume (5).

• The rate of change in increases in atmospheric

carbon dioxide has been about 100 times

faster in recent decades than over the past

650,000 years. Concentrations of other

greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous

oxide, have also increased significantly (5).

• Most of the increase in average atmospheric

temperatures since the mid20th century is due

to increases in greenhouse gases.

W H A T I S P R O B A B L E :

• Atmospheric carbon dioxide will continue to increase

at the rate of about 0.5 percent per year for at least

the next few decades (22).

• Water quality will continue to change because of

the absorption of increased greenhouse gases by

the oceans (23).

• Increases in pollutant emissions will result in the

increased introduction of nutrients and toxins into

surface waters.

• Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above

current rates would cause further warming and induce

many changes in the global climate system during

the 21st century that would very likely be larger than

those observed during the 20th century.

W H A T I S P O S S I B L E :

• Atmospheric carbon dioxide will stabilize if global

emissions are reduced by 30 percent or more despite

increases in global population (5).

• The rate of atmospheric greenhouse gas increase