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economic impacts of climate change will occur |
throughout the United States (17). These impacts |
will be unevenly distributed across regions and |
society, and negative impacts will outweigh |
benefits for most sectors that provide goods and |
services. The impacts will place immense strains |
on public sector budgets. The secondary |
impacts of climate change can include higher |
prices, reduced incomes, and job losses. |
. . . Negative impacts will outweigh bene |
fits for most sectors that provide goods and |
services. The impacts will place immense |
strains on public sector budgets. The sec |
ondary impacts of climate change can in |
clude higher prices, reduced incomes, and |
job losses. |
7 |
III |
8 |
III |
The same study predicts that major impacts on |
the southeast United States (including Florida) |
will be felt most acutely in coastal infrastructure. |
Moreover, forests, agriculture and fisheries, |
water supplies, water quality, and energy |
sources may be subject to considerable |
change and damage. Many of these sectors |
are closely linked. For example, energy supply |
depends on cooling water availability; emergency preparedness on transportation, energy |
supply, water availability, and more. Only a |
few of these interrelationships typically enter |
economic impact and cost assessments. These |
indirect links need to be considered as well as |
the economic cost assessments. |
Another recent study also estimates the costs of |
inaction for Florida, should the rate of greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked (18). |
The study addresses both optimistic (rapid stabilization though greatly reduced emissions) |
and pessimistic scenarios (no change in the |
growth of emissions). The cost of inaction is the |
difference between these two scenarios. For |
just four categories of economic activity— |
tourism, hurricanes, electric power, and real |
estate—the cost of inaction ranged from $27 |
billion by 2025 (or 1.6 percent of the projected |
gross state product) to $354 billion in 2100 |
(about 5 percent of the projected gross |
state product). If estimates include other |
sectors, such as agriculture, fisheries, insurance, |
transportation, water systems, and ecosystem |
damages, the cost of inaction is even greater. |
Photo courtesy of Guy Weeks — Alligator Point |
IV. “Drivers” of Climate Change |
and Their Effects on Florida’s |
Ocean and Coastal Resources |
The further Floridians look into the future, the more uncertain are the predicted consequences of climate |
change. This section identifies what is currently known, what is probable, and what is possible about the |
drivers of climate change and their effects on Florida. |
DR IVE R : Increasing Greenhouse Gases |
Earth’s temperature is rising because the levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that retain |
atmospheric heat are increasing. This increase is largely a consequence of human activities that use energy, |
particularly fossil fuels such as oil and coal. All of these gases are absorbed by the oceans (19). |
9 |
IV |
W H A T W E K N O W : |
• From 1980 to 1989, the carbon content of the |
Earth’s atmosphere is estimated to have risen by |
a rate of about 3.4 billion tons of carbon per |
year, with an estimated error of ± 0.2 billion |
tons (20, 21). |
• Over the last 650,000 years, levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide have fluctuated between |
180 to 280 parts per million by volume (5). |
• The rate of change in increases in atmospheric |
carbon dioxide has been about 100 times |
faster in recent decades than over the past |
650,000 years. Concentrations of other |
greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous |
oxide, have also increased significantly (5). |
• Most of the increase in average atmospheric |
temperatures since the mid20th century is due |
to increases in greenhouse gases. |
W H A T I S P R O B A B L E : |
• Atmospheric carbon dioxide will continue to increase |
at the rate of about 0.5 percent per year for at least |
the next few decades (22). |
• Water quality will continue to change because of |
the absorption of increased greenhouse gases by |
the oceans (23). |
• Increases in pollutant emissions will result in the |
increased introduction of nutrients and toxins into |
surface waters. |
• Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above |
current rates would cause further warming and induce |
many changes in the global climate system during |
the 21st century that would very likely be larger than |
those observed during the 20th century. |
W H A T I S P O S S I B L E : |
• Atmospheric carbon dioxide will stabilize if global |
emissions are reduced by 30 percent or more despite |
increases in global population (5). |
• The rate of atmospheric greenhouse gas increase |
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