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Since South Florida's ecosystems are all tied to one another, it is important to conduct "big picture" studies like the Florida Regional Ecosystem Stressors Collaborative Assessment (FRESCA) project, that can capture how these many combined stressors impact each of these ecosystems together under present and future climate change scenarios.

A Rough Summer for Coral
Mission: Iconic Reefs is a large-scale NOAA-led coral restoration initiative within Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary to restore seven ecologically and culturally significant coral reefs to self-sustaining levels by 2040. Launched in late 2019, the unprecedented effort is a collaboration with world-renowned scientists, local restoration partners, academia, industry, and federal and state agencies.

Throughout the summer of 2023, elevated ocean temperatures occurred over longer than normal durations, creating an extremely stressful environment for the coral reefs. This prompted a Herculean emergency removal and collaboration between Mission: Iconic Reefs partners and coral practitioners state-wide in order to safeguard the genetic diversity of Florida's coral reef-building species.

a diver tends to a coral nursery in the water column
Under Mission: Iconic Reefs, species like staghorn coral (pictured) are grown in coral nurseries and transplanted to reefs. Photo: Jay Clue
In addition to waters heating up locally in the Keys, temperatures within the shallow Florida Bay heated up to extreme levels during the heatwave. As this water flowed through the passages between the islands of the Keys, it encountered the cooler Atlantic Ocean water and immediately sank to the bottom. This condition, known as a "reverse thermocline," bathed the corals in abnormally hot, salty waters, and caused severe bleaching and often rapid mortality.

"The Mission: Iconic Reefs sites in the Middle and Lower Keys directly exposed to Florida Bay experienced the highest overall extent of bleaching," said Sanctuary Research Coordinator Dr. Andy Bruckner.

Researchers Still Hopeful
As the events that took place this summer have demonstrated, climate change will continue to be a factor that coral practitioners, resource managers, and the corals themselves must contend with moving forward.

Ian Enochs, head of the Coral Program at NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, said a key goal of the multi-stressor project is to show how climate change will impact the seven Mission: Iconic Reefs sites and how changing water quality parameters associated with the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan may influence them.

aerial view of a shoreline with vegetation
Near the coast, mangroves and seagrasses stabilize sediments, slow down water flows, reduce wave action, and trap the heavy metals and nutrient-rich runoff. Photo: Jack Fishman
"By linking these ecosystems, we can evaluate all sorts of interconnected management strategies, such as restoring seagrass to act as an ocean acidification buffer for coral reefs," says Enochs. "Our research is built on these concepts to help evaluate the big picture responses of habitat and whether it will be able to keep up with global change."

Enochs said the ability to target resiliency will allow scientists to evaluate different coral restoration strategies to help ensure habitat protection under various climate scenarios.

Partnerships and Collaboration
The four-year project is co-led by NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School and involves more than nine collaborating scientists at seven institutions.

The funding was provided by NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Competitive Research Program, Climate Program Office, Ocean Acidification Program, and the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System Office, in partnership with the Office of National Marine Sanctuaries.

Dawn Desmarais is the Mission: Iconic Reefs Communications Manager at Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary.

Rachel Plunkett is the writer/editor at NOAA's Office of National Marine Sanctuaries.

Additional Information
NCCOS: NOAA Awards $4.2 Million for Multi-stressor Research on South Florida’s Coastal Ecosystems
Florida Regional Ecosystem Stressors Collaborative Assessment (FRESCA)
Mission: Iconic Reefs
Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan
Mission: Iconic Reefs Relocates Thousands of Corals Amidst Record Heatwave
Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary
Everglades National Park
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Website owner: National Ocean Service \| NOAA \| Department of Commerce

Articles
Potential Impacts of Future Urbanization and Sea Level
Rise on Florida’s Natural Resources
Stephanie S. Romanach,* Allison M. Benscoter, Saira M. Haider ˜
U.S. Geological Survey, 3321 College Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33314
Abstract
As urban development continues to encroach into natural systems, these ecosystems experience increasing
degradation to their form and function. Changing climatic conditions further compound the losses in biodiversity and
ecosystem function. The state of Florida is known for its biodiversity but has experienced declines in species
populations and habitats because of urbanization and sea level rise. Because Florida benefits from a multibillion-dollar
income from natural resources tourism, these declines challenge the state’s economy. In this study, we assessed the
potential future impacts of urbanization and sea level rise on a suite of conservation targets that have been set for the
state. We developed six scenarios of all combinations of intermediate and high sea level rise paired with two types of
urbanization, sprawling and compact, in both 2040 and 2070 to examine the potential future threats to conservation
targets in High Pine and Scrub, Coastal Uplands, and Freshwater Aquatics ecosystems. Our results show projected
decreases in extent and area of these priority ecosystems into the future. Under Florida’s current trends in urbanization
practices, projections indicate a greater impact on conservation targets than if sprawl reduction practices are
implemented. Projections indicate that Coastal Uplands will experience the greatest loss in area, at up to 47%.
Conservation-focused urban planning and climate adaptation strategies can help protect Florida’s natural resources
with benefits to Florida’s tourism economy as well as critical ecosystem functions and services such as coastal flood
protection and storm surge risk reduction.
Keywords: coastal; freshwater; landscape conservation cooperative; pine; scrub; wetland
Received: September 9, 2019; Accepted: March 9, 2020; Published Online Early: March 2020; Published: June 2020
Citation: Romanach SS, Benscoter AM, Haider SM. 2020. Potential impacts of future urbanization and sea level rise on ˜
Florida’s natural resources. Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management 11(1):174–184; e1944-687X. https://doi.org/10.
3996/092019-JFWM-076
Copyright: All material appearing in the Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management is in the public domain and may be
reproduced or copied without permission unless specifically noted with the copyright symbol &. Citation of the
source, as given above, is requested.
The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
* Corresponding author: [email protected]
Introduction
Natural resource managers face increasing challenges
for conservation planning in changing ecosystems.
Human impacts on ecosystems have increased with
advances in technology and the resulting increases in
human populations and encroachment into natural areas
(Vitousek et al. 1997). Changes in climatic conditions
present novel conditions for organisms and have led to
biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem function
(Bellard et al. 2012; Cardinale et al. 2012; Hooper et al.
2012). Most notably, these changes have led to range
shifts and phenological changes (Parmesan and Yohe
2003) as well as to changes in population dynamics,
ecological community assemblages, and nonnative
species invasions (Walther 2010). Uncertainty surrounding future change and varying projections of ecological
responses to change pose even greater challenges for
natural resource managers (e.g., Thuiller 2004).
The state of Florida is well known for its terrestrial and
marine biodiversity (Millsap et al. 1990), yet many of its
ecosystems are under threat (Florida Natural Areas
Inventory 2018). Florida’s diverse species and habitats
attract millions of tourists and bring in $9 billion per year

Since South Florida's ecosystems are all tied to one another, it is important to conduct "big picture" studies like the Florida Regional Ecosystem Stressors Collaborative Assessment (FRESCA) project, that can capture how these many combined stressors impact each of these ecosystems together under present and future climate change scenarios.

A Rough Summer for Coral

Mission: Iconic Reefs is a large-scale NOAA-led coral restoration initiative within Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary to restore seven ecologically and culturally significant coral reefs to self-sustaining levels by 2040. Launched in late 2019, the unprecedented effort is a collaboration with world-renowned scientists, local restoration partners, academia, industry, and federal and state agencies.

Throughout the summer of 2023, elevated ocean temperatures occurred over longer than normal durations, creating an extremely stressful environment for the coral reefs. This prompted a Herculean emergency removal and collaboration between Mission: Iconic Reefs partners and coral practitioners state-wide in order to safeguard the genetic diversity of Florida's coral reef-building species.

a diver tends to a coral nursery in the water column

Under Mission: Iconic Reefs, species like staghorn coral (pictured) are grown in coral nurseries and transplanted to reefs. Photo: Jay Clue

In addition to waters heating up locally in the Keys, temperatures within the shallow Florida Bay heated up to extreme levels during the heatwave. As this water flowed through the passages between the islands of the Keys, it encountered the cooler Atlantic Ocean water and immediately sank to the bottom. This condition, known as a "reverse thermocline," bathed the corals in abnormally hot, salty waters, and caused severe bleaching and often rapid mortality.

"The Mission: Iconic Reefs sites in the Middle and Lower Keys directly exposed to Florida Bay experienced the highest overall extent of bleaching," said Sanctuary Research Coordinator Dr. Andy Bruckner.

Researchers Still Hopeful

As the events that took place this summer have demonstrated, climate change will continue to be a factor that coral practitioners, resource managers, and the corals themselves must contend with moving forward.

Ian Enochs, head of the Coral Program at NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, said a key goal of the multi-stressor project is to show how climate change will impact the seven Mission: Iconic Reefs sites and how changing water quality parameters associated with the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan may influence them.

aerial view of a shoreline with vegetation

Near the coast, mangroves and seagrasses stabilize sediments, slow down water flows, reduce wave action, and trap the heavy metals and nutrient-rich runoff. Photo: Jack Fishman

"By linking these ecosystems, we can evaluate all sorts of interconnected management strategies, such as restoring seagrass to act as an ocean acidification buffer for coral reefs," says Enochs. "Our research is built on these concepts to help evaluate the big picture responses of habitat and whether it will be able to keep up with global change."

Enochs said the ability to target resiliency will allow scientists to evaluate different coral restoration strategies to help ensure habitat protection under various climate scenarios.

Partnerships and Collaboration

The four-year project is co-led by NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School and involves more than nine collaborating scientists at seven institutions.

The funding was provided by NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Competitive Research Program, Climate Program Office, Ocean Acidification Program, and the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System Office, in partnership with the Office of National Marine Sanctuaries.

Dawn Desmarais is the Mission: Iconic Reefs Communications Manager at Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary.

Rachel Plunkett is the writer/editor at NOAA's Office of National Marine Sanctuaries.

Additional Information

NCCOS: NOAA Awards $4.2 Million for Multi-stressor Research on South Florida’s Coastal Ecosystems

Florida Regional Ecosystem Stressors Collaborative Assessment (FRESCA)

Mission: Iconic Reefs

Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan

Mission: Iconic Reefs Relocates Thousands of Corals Amidst Record Heatwave

Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary

Everglades National Park

Home Visit News Explore Learn Get Involved Photos & Videos About Contact Jobs

facebook twitter instagram youtube tumblr rss

Disclaimer Information Quality Freedom of Information Act Privacy Policy User Survey

Website owner: National Ocean Service | NOAA | Department of Commerce

Articles

Potential Impacts of Future Urbanization and Sea Level

Rise on Florida’s Natural Resources

Stephanie S. Romanach,* Allison M. Benscoter, Saira M. Haider ˜

U.S. Geological Survey, 3321 College Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33314

Abstract

As urban development continues to encroach into natural systems, these ecosystems experience increasing

degradation to their form and function. Changing climatic conditions further compound the losses in biodiversity and

ecosystem function. The state of Florida is known for its biodiversity but has experienced declines in species

populations and habitats because of urbanization and sea level rise. Because Florida benefits from a multibillion-dollar

income from natural resources tourism, these declines challenge the state’s economy. In this study, we assessed the

potential future impacts of urbanization and sea level rise on a suite of conservation targets that have been set for the

state. We developed six scenarios of all combinations of intermediate and high sea level rise paired with two types of

urbanization, sprawling and compact, in both 2040 and 2070 to examine the potential future threats to conservation

targets in High Pine and Scrub, Coastal Uplands, and Freshwater Aquatics ecosystems. Our results show projected

decreases in extent and area of these priority ecosystems into the future. Under Florida’s current trends in urbanization

practices, projections indicate a greater impact on conservation targets than if sprawl reduction practices are

implemented. Projections indicate that Coastal Uplands will experience the greatest loss in area, at up to 47%.

Conservation-focused urban planning and climate adaptation strategies can help protect Florida’s natural resources

with benefits to Florida’s tourism economy as well as critical ecosystem functions and services such as coastal flood

protection and storm surge risk reduction.

Keywords: coastal; freshwater; landscape conservation cooperative; pine; scrub; wetland

Received: September 9, 2019; Accepted: March 9, 2020; Published Online Early: March 2020; Published: June 2020

Citation: Romanach SS, Benscoter AM, Haider SM. 2020. Potential impacts of future urbanization and sea level rise on ˜

Florida’s natural resources. Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management 11(1):174–184; e1944-687X. https://doi.org/10.

3996/092019-JFWM-076

Copyright: All material appearing in the Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management is in the public domain and may be

reproduced or copied without permission unless specifically noted with the copyright symbol &. Citation of the

source, as given above, is requested.

The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

* Corresponding author: [email protected]

Introduction

Natural resource managers face increasing challenges

for conservation planning in changing ecosystems.

Human impacts on ecosystems have increased with

advances in technology and the resulting increases in

human populations and encroachment into natural areas

(Vitousek et al. 1997). Changes in climatic conditions

present novel conditions for organisms and have led to

biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem function

(Bellard et al. 2012; Cardinale et al. 2012; Hooper et al.

2012). Most notably, these changes have led to range

shifts and phenological changes (Parmesan and Yohe

2003) as well as to changes in population dynamics,

ecological community assemblages, and nonnative

species invasions (Walther 2010). Uncertainty surrounding future change and varying projections of ecological

responses to change pose even greater challenges for

natural resource managers (e.g., Thuiller 2004).

The state of Florida is well known for its terrestrial and

marine biodiversity (Millsap et al. 1990), yet many of its

ecosystems are under threat (Florida Natural Areas

Inventory 2018). Florida’s diverse species and habitats

attract millions of tourists and bring in $9 billion per year