patrickbdevaney/mia9 · Datasets at Hugging Face

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2006; Data A4, Archived Material), 2) Florida ‘‘Alternative’’
for 2070 (Data A5, Archived Material), and 3) ‘‘Trend’’
projections for 2070 (Carr and Zwick 2016; Data A6,
Archived Material). The Florida 2060 (FL2060) project,
conducted in 2006, developed urbanization projections
for 2040 by using trending development patterns at that
time. The Florida 2070 (FL2070) project, conducted in
2016, developed two future scenarios for 2070 based on
population growth estimates from the Florida Bureau of
Economic and Business Research. Urbanization in the
Alternative 2070 layer includes more compact development (higher density and a smaller spatial extent) and an
increased acreage of protected lands compared with
Trend (larger spatial impact per capita). Urbanization
from the Trend 2070 layer includes development
continuing along current patterns with the same
Impacts of Urbanization and Sea Level Rise S.S. Romanach et al. ˜
Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management \| www.fwspubs.org June 2020 \| Volume 11 \| Issue 1 \| 175
Downloaded from http://meridian.allenpress.com/jfwm/article-pdf/11/1/174/3103287/i1944-687x-11-1-174.pdf by guest on 29 February 2024
population as Alternative but spread out, which means
growth at lower densities compared with the Alternative.
We used different methods to develop the projected
urbanization layers in FL2060 and FL2070 as well as to
create the respective baseline urbanization layers.
For the 2040 scenario modeling, we used the 2040
spatial layers from FL2060. For the 2070 scenario
modeling, we used layers from FL2070. Because these
projects used different methodologies in developing the
urbanization layers, the projections suggest that some
areas will be urbanized in 2040, but not in 2070. In
addition, when we compared the respective baselines
(FL2060’s baseline is for 2005 and FL2070’s baseline is for
2010), we found that the 2005 urban baseline contains
more urban areas than the 2010 baseline by approximately 500,000 ha. This difference may be attributed to
the FL2060 methodology that classified all vacant platted
residential properties as urban, even if the land cover
type for that parcel was not urban (Zwick and Carr 2006).
Because the FL2070 2010 baseline urbanization scenario
appeared to provide a more accurate classification of
existing urbanization (based on comparison to satellite
imagery), we used this baseline for all susceptibility
modeling (Data A7, Archived Material).
The differences between baseline urbanization layers
and inconsistencies between urban growth projections
prompted us to modify the FL2060 urbanization
projection for 2040 to make it comparable with the
FL2070 projection for 2070. First, we removed overlapping 2005 baseline urban sites from the 2040 urban
growth layer. Next, we added urban areas from the 2010
baseline to the 2040 urban layer. Last, some areas
projected as urban in 2040 were not classified as urban
in 2070, which is problematic for a comparison of growth
from the baseline. We removed any urban areas from the
2040 projection that were not classified as urban in
either of the 2070 projections (Alternative or Trend).
Having removed these discrepancies between projections, we were able to use the same 2010 urbanization
baseline across all scenarios, making our comparisons
consistent.
Sea Level Rise
We selected SLR inundation layers developed by the
University of Florida (UF) GeoPlan Center (University of
Florida GeoPlan Center 2014; Data A8, Archived Material).
These layers used U.S. Army Corps of Engineers SLR
projections and Sea-Level Change Curve Calculator
version 2015.46 (Huber and White 2015) and National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tidal
gauge data and tidal surfaces to develop SLR inundation
layers at a 5-m horizontal resolution for each of Florida’s
36 coastal counties. The SLR layers were developed for
each county by using local gauge data and sea level
trends. The UF GeoPlan Center used a modified bathtub
approach where isolated areas not hydrologically connected to the coast were removed from inundation.
The UF GeoPlan Center developed SLR inundation
layers for five scenarios. Through coordination with the
PFLCC to meet their needs, we selected the U.S. Army
Corps of Engineers’ intermediate and high SLR projections. We selected SLR inundation layers for the years
2040 and 2070. Sea level rise is projected to differ
Table 1. Study objective was to model susceptibility scenarios resulting from urbanization and sea level rise to understand their
potential future impacts on the Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative (PFLCC) conservation targets, completed in
2018. Data sources for modeled conservation targets in the High Pine and Scrub, Coastal Uplands, and Freshwater Aquatics Priority
Resources.
Priority resource Conservation target Data source
High Pine and Scrub Area in protected status FNAI Conservation Lands (Florida Natural Areas Inventory 2018)
Configuration/connectivity CLIP 4.0 (Oetting et al. 2016) Landscape Integrity Index: values 8–
10 (high ecological integrity)
Configuration/connectivity CLIP 4.0 Ecological Greenways Network: Priority 1
Gopher tortoise Gopherus polyphemus FWC–predicted distribution, monitoring data
Red-cockaded woodpecker Picoides borealis FWC predicted distribution, monitoring, and translocation data
Sandhill bird index The sum of binary prediction rasters for FWC predicted
distributions for brown-headed nuthatch Sitta pusilla, northern
bobwhite Colinus virginianus, and Bachman’s sparrow Peucaea
aestivalis
Coastal Uplands Area in protected status FNAI Conservation Lands
Configuration/connectivity CLIP 4.0 Landscape Integrity Index: values 8–10 (high ecological
integrity)
Configuration/connectivity CLIP 4.0 Ecological Greenways Network: Priority 1
American oystercatcher Haematopus palliatus Habitat selection model developed by J. Beerens and M. Barrett
Snowy plover Charadrius nivosus Habitat selection model developed by J. Beerens and M. Barrett
Freshwater Aquatics Floodplain connectivity CLIP 4.0 Natural Floodplain
Configuration CLIP 4.0 Landscape Integrity Index: values 8–10 (high ecological
integrity)
Plant diversity Lake Vegetation Index, PFLCC Conservation Planning Atlas (Florida

2006; Data A4, Archived Material), 2) Florida ‘‘Alternative’’

for 2070 (Data A5, Archived Material), and 3) ‘‘Trend’’

projections for 2070 (Carr and Zwick 2016; Data A6,

Archived Material). The Florida 2060 (FL2060) project,

conducted in 2006, developed urbanization projections

for 2040 by using trending development patterns at that

time. The Florida 2070 (FL2070) project, conducted in

2016, developed two future scenarios for 2070 based on

population growth estimates from the Florida Bureau of

Economic and Business Research. Urbanization in the

Alternative 2070 layer includes more compact development (higher density and a smaller spatial extent) and an

increased acreage of protected lands compared with

Trend (larger spatial impact per capita). Urbanization

from the Trend 2070 layer includes development

continuing along current patterns with the same

Impacts of Urbanization and Sea Level Rise S.S. Romanach et al. ˜

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management | www.fwspubs.org June 2020 | Volume 11 | Issue 1 | 175

Downloaded from http://meridian.allenpress.com/jfwm/article-pdf/11/1/174/3103287/i1944-687x-11-1-174.pdf by guest on 29 February 2024

population as Alternative but spread out, which means

growth at lower densities compared with the Alternative.

We used different methods to develop the projected

urbanization layers in FL2060 and FL2070 as well as to

create the respective baseline urbanization layers.

For the 2040 scenario modeling, we used the 2040

spatial layers from FL2060. For the 2070 scenario

modeling, we used layers from FL2070. Because these

projects used different methodologies in developing the

urbanization layers, the projections suggest that some

areas will be urbanized in 2040, but not in 2070. In

addition, when we compared the respective baselines

(FL2060’s baseline is for 2005 and FL2070’s baseline is for

2010), we found that the 2005 urban baseline contains

more urban areas than the 2010 baseline by approximately 500,000 ha. This difference may be attributed to

the FL2060 methodology that classified all vacant platted

residential properties as urban, even if the land cover

type for that parcel was not urban (Zwick and Carr 2006).

Because the FL2070 2010 baseline urbanization scenario

appeared to provide a more accurate classification of

existing urbanization (based on comparison to satellite

imagery), we used this baseline for all susceptibility

modeling (Data A7, Archived Material).

The differences between baseline urbanization layers

and inconsistencies between urban growth projections

prompted us to modify the FL2060 urbanization

projection for 2040 to make it comparable with the

FL2070 projection for 2070. First, we removed overlapping 2005 baseline urban sites from the 2040 urban

growth layer. Next, we added urban areas from the 2010

baseline to the 2040 urban layer. Last, some areas

projected as urban in 2040 were not classified as urban

in 2070, which is problematic for a comparison of growth

from the baseline. We removed any urban areas from the

2040 projection that were not classified as urban in

either of the 2070 projections (Alternative or Trend).

Having removed these discrepancies between projections, we were able to use the same 2010 urbanization

baseline across all scenarios, making our comparisons

consistent.

Sea Level Rise

We selected SLR inundation layers developed by the

University of Florida (UF) GeoPlan Center (University of

Florida GeoPlan Center 2014; Data A8, Archived Material).

These layers used U.S. Army Corps of Engineers SLR

projections and Sea-Level Change Curve Calculator

version 2015.46 (Huber and White 2015) and National

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tidal

gauge data and tidal surfaces to develop SLR inundation

layers at a 5-m horizontal resolution for each of Florida’s

36 coastal counties. The SLR layers were developed for

each county by using local gauge data and sea level

trends. The UF GeoPlan Center used a modified bathtub

approach where isolated areas not hydrologically connected to the coast were removed from inundation.

The UF GeoPlan Center developed SLR inundation

layers for five scenarios. Through coordination with the

PFLCC to meet their needs, we selected the U.S. Army

Corps of Engineers’ intermediate and high SLR projections. We selected SLR inundation layers for the years

2040 and 2070. Sea level rise is projected to differ

Table 1. Study objective was to model susceptibility scenarios resulting from urbanization and sea level rise to understand their

potential future impacts on the Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative (PFLCC) conservation targets, completed in

2018. Data sources for modeled conservation targets in the High Pine and Scrub, Coastal Uplands, and Freshwater Aquatics Priority

Resources.

Priority resource Conservation target Data source

High Pine and Scrub Area in protected status FNAI Conservation Lands (Florida Natural Areas Inventory 2018)

Configuration/connectivity CLIP 4.0 (Oetting et al. 2016) Landscape Integrity Index: values 8–

10 (high ecological integrity)

Configuration/connectivity CLIP 4.0 Ecological Greenways Network: Priority 1

Gopher tortoise Gopherus polyphemus FWC–predicted distribution, monitoring data

Red-cockaded woodpecker Picoides borealis FWC predicted distribution, monitoring, and translocation data

Sandhill bird index The sum of binary prediction rasters for FWC predicted

distributions for brown-headed nuthatch Sitta pusilla, northern

bobwhite Colinus virginianus, and Bachman’s sparrow Peucaea

aestivalis

Coastal Uplands Area in protected status FNAI Conservation Lands

Configuration/connectivity CLIP 4.0 Landscape Integrity Index: values 8–10 (high ecological

integrity)

Configuration/connectivity CLIP 4.0 Ecological Greenways Network: Priority 1

American oystercatcher Haematopus palliatus Habitat selection model developed by J. Beerens and M. Barrett

Snowy plover Charadrius nivosus Habitat selection model developed by J. Beerens and M. Barrett

Freshwater Aquatics Floodplain connectivity CLIP 4.0 Natural Floodplain

Configuration CLIP 4.0 Landscape Integrity Index: values 8–10 (high ecological

integrity)

Plant diversity Lake Vegetation Index, PFLCC Conservation Planning Atlas (Florida