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P1
CLIP
P2
CLIP
P1
CLIP
P2
CLIP
P1
CLIP
P2
CLIP
P1
CLIP
P2
Baseline area of target (km2
) 256.7 13.9 203.2 3.4 62.3 0.8 26.3 n/a 86.9 9.0 38.9 3.2
Area (km2
)
2040 Urban Int SLR 246.2 12.7 197.8 3.3 59.9 0.8 24.4 n/a 81.4 8.1 37.9 3.1
2040 Urban High SLR 236.8 12.2 191.0 3.2 57.3 0.7 22.0 n/a 77.7 7.7 36.5 2.9
2070 Alt Urban Int SLR 237.9 12.2 192.3 3.2 57.9 0.7 22.6 n/a 78.1 7.8 36.7 3.0
2070 Alt Urban High SLR 183.6 10.1 147.5 2.7 40.8 0.6 14.0 n/a 63.4 6.2 30.4 2.2
2070 Trend Urban Int SLR 235.6 12.2 192.3 3.2 57.4 0.7 22.6 n/a 78.1 7.7 36.7 3.0
2070 Trend Urban High SLR 182.1 10.0 147.5 2.7 40.4 0.6 14.0 n/a 63.3 6.2 30.4 2.2
% decrease from baseline
2040 Urban Int SLR 4.1 8.4 2.7 4.0 3.8 1.9 7.2 n/a 6.3 9.9 2.7 4.3
2040 Urban High SLR 7.8 12.2 6.0 6.3 8.0 5.6 16.3 n/a 10.6 14.1 6.1 9.3
2070 Alt Urban Int SLR 7.3 11.8 5.3 5.9 7.1 4.8 13.8 n/a 10.1 13.7 5.7 9.0
2070 Alt Urban High SLR 28.5 27.4 27.4 21.7 34.5 24.2 46.6 n/a 27.1 30.9 21.9 33.1
2070 Trend Urban Int SLR 8.2 12.1 5.3 5.9 7.8 4.8 14.2 n/a 10.1 14.2 5.7 8.7
2070 Trend Urban High SLR 29.1 27.7 27.4 21.7 35.2 24.2 46.8 n/a 27.1 31.3 22.0 33.0
n/a ¼ not applicable.
Table 4. Study objective was to model susceptibility scenarios resulting from urbanization and sea level rise (SLR) to understand
their potential future impacts on the Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative conservation targets, completed in
2018. The area (km2
) and percent (%) decrease in area of each model input (i.e., conservation target) for the Freshwater Aquatics
Priority Resource for each future model scenario of urbanization (Urban) and SLR. The Baseline area of target represents the current
extent of the input model data with the 2010 urban baseline extracted. Each area and percent decrease in area is represented for
Critical Lands and Waters Identification Project Priority 1 and 2 (CLIP P1 and CLIP P2, respectively). The CLIP Landscape Integrity
Index values 8 (high ecological integrity) were used for calculations. We also present the area and percent change in area for the
entire Freshwater Aquatics Priority Resource for CLIP P1 and CLIP P2.
Model data and scenario
Freshwater Aquatics
Priority Resource
Floodplain
connectivity
Landscape
Integrity (8)
Plant diversity (no. of
sample locations)
CLIP P1 CLIP P2 CLIP P1 CLIP P2 CLIP P1 CLIP P2 CLIP P1 CLIP P2
Baseline area of target (km2
) 2,271.0 1,579.0 127.2 50.0 169.6 58.5 141 111
Area (km2
)
2040 Urban Int SLR 2,266.8 1,578.1 124.5 49.5 166.6 58.1 141 109
2040 Urban High SLR 2,264.8 1,577.9 123.3 49.3 165.0 58.0 141 109
2070 Alt Urban Int SLR 2,263.8 1,576.4 122.7 48.5 165.0 57.5 141 109
2070 Alt Urban High SLR 2,261.3 1,576.0 121.0 48.2 163.2 57.3 141 109
2070 Trend Urban Int SLR 2,262.6 1,576.4 122.1 48.4 164.4 57.4 141 109
2070 Trend Urban High SLR 2,260.1 1,576.0 120.4 48.1 162.7 57.2 141 109
% decrease from baseline
2040 Urban Int SLR 0.2 0.1 2.1 1.0 1.8 0.7 0.0 1.8
2040 Urban High SLR 0.3 0.1 3.1 1.2 2.7 0.9 0.0 1.8
2070 Alt Urban Int SLR 0.3 0.2 3.5 3.0 2.7 1.7 0.0 1.8
2070 Alt Urban High SLR 0.4 0.2 4.8 3.5 3.8 2.1 0.0 1.8
2070 Trend Urban Int SLR 0.4 0.2 4.0 3.2 3.0 1.8 0.0 1.8
2070 Trend Urban High SLR 0.5 0.2 5.3 3.7 4.1 2.2 0.0 1.8
Impacts of Urbanization and Sea Level Rise S.S. Romanach et al. ˜
Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management | www.fwspubs.org June 2020 | Volume 11 | Issue 1 | 179
Downloaded from http://meridian.allenpress.com/jfwm/article-pdf/11/1/174/3103287/i1944-687x-11-1-174.pdf by guest on 29 February 2024
Gopherus polyphemus, red-cockaded woodpecker Picoides borealis, Sandhill bird index), especially for the
gopher tortoise and the sandhill bird index (brownheaded nuthatch Sitta pusilla, northern bobwhite Colinus
virginianus, Bachman’s sparrow Peucaea aestivalis). Projections indicate that urbanization will cause greater
losses than SLR for High Pine and Scrub. For the Coastal
Uplands Priority Resource, the high SLR scenarios
showed the greatest percent loss in area for the
conservation targets (Table 3), especially in 2070. Many
of the projected Coastal Uplands losses in area from SLR
were high, with the greatest at 46.8% projected loss for
Ecological Greenways. We determined the mean elevation of Coastal Uplands to be 1.46 m (SD ¼ 1.44 m) by
using the U.S Geological Survey (2019) digital elevation
model, with the most frequent elevation observed
(60.02%) at 0–1 m. The general pattern of a greater loss
in area due to urbanization and SLR in 2070 than in 2040
was less pronounced for the Freshwater Aquatics Priority
Resource, but still resulted in loss (Table 4). We found a
lower percentage of Freshwater Aquatics area lost from
future SLR than High Pine and Scrub and Coastal
Uplands Priority Resources, with the highest Freshwater
Aquatics area lost at 5.3%.
We combined CLIP Priority 1 and 2 percent decrease in
area (Tables 2–4) to compare projected losses from high
vs. intermediate SLR, holding urbanization constant, for
each Priority Resource. Coastal Uplands showed the
greatest difference in percent area lost between high
and intermediate SLR (Figure 2). The mean difference for
all urbanization scenarios in percent area lost between
high and intermediate SLR was greatest for Coastal