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# N Average Canopy
Climate
Change
AND
Sea-Level Rise
IN Florida
AN Update
OF THE EFFECTS OF
Climate
Change
ON FLORIDA’S
Ocean &
Coastal
RESOURCES
DECEMBER
2010
PREPARED BY
THE FLORIDA OCEANS
AND COASTAL COUNCIL
TALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA
It is widely accepted that human activities can impact global
climate patterns. While there are legitimate disagreements
among scientists on the nature, magnitude, and impact of
these changes, the potential risks to Florida’s natural resources
and our economy compel us to seek a thorough understanding
of possible impacts and to provide current and future
generations with the information necessary to adjust to them.
Florida Oceans and Coastal Council. 2010. Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise in Florida: An Update
of “The Effects of Climate Change on Florida’s Ocean and Coastal Resources.” [2009 Report] Tallahassee,
Florida. vi + 26 p. www.floridaoceanscouncil.org.
Photos on front and back cover courtesy of Florida Department of Environmental Protection, Bureau of Beaches
and Coastal Systems; Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission; Dave Gilliam; NASA; Roffer’s
Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc.; University of South Florida; Harold Wanless; Guy Weeks; and
istockphoto.com.
Preface
In 2009, the Florida Oceans and Coastal Council (FOCC) published a report
entitled The Effects of Climate Change on Florida’s Ocean and Coastal Resources.
A special report to the Florida Energy and Climate Commission and the people
of Florida, the report provided an overview of climate change and why Floridians
should care about climate change. Brief information was provided on Florida’s
infrastructure, human health, and economy, but the report focused on what was
known, was probable, and was possible concerning climate-change effects on
the state’s ocean and coastal resources. The 2009 report examined such effects
resulting from increasing greenhouse gases, air temperature and water vapor, ocean
temperature, and sea level. Emphasizing Florida-based research and research by
Florida scientists, the report presented a dozen discussions on the effects of the
four climate “drivers” and recommended promising areas for future research.
The scope and depth of climate research have grown rapidly with important
new work in and about Florida. To recognize and disseminate the latest findings
and their implications for managing the state’s ocean and coastal resources, the
FOCC undertook this update of one driver, sea-level rise, with the expectation that
updates for increasing greenhouse gases, air temperature, and ocean temperature
may be released in subsequent years. This update on sea-level rise involved contributions by 5 Council members, 12 contributing authors, and 11 external reviewers
whose technical contributions were based principally on literature published by
August 2010. Two-thirds of the cited literature was published in this decade, and
one-third of it appeared in 2009 and 2010. As of December, many new research
and resource-management initiatives have begun around Florida or soon will begin.
Such increased activity testifies to the special relationship that our state’s natural
and cultural resources hold with respect to sea level and to the risks posed as sea
level rises.
i
Table of Contents
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS iii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY v
I. INTRODUCTION 1
II. SEA-LEVEL RISE AND ITS EFFECTS ON FLORIDA’S
OCEAN AND COASTAL RESOURCES 3
DRIVER: Sea-Level Rise 3
EFFECT: Changes in Barrier Islands, Beaches, and Inlets 4
EFFECT: Changes in Estuaries, Tidal Rivers, and Coastal Forests 8
EFFECT: Higher Storm Surge and Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure 11
EFFECT: Threats to Coastal Water Supply and Wastewater Treatment 13
EFFECT: Increases in Beach Erosion and Renourishment 15
EFFECT: Impacts on Coastal Planning 17
EFFECT: Increased Flooding Risks 19
III. SEA-LEVEL RISE PRIORITIES FOR FLORIDA’S OCEAN
AND COASTAL RESEARCH 20
REFERENCES 22
ii
Florida Department of
Environmental Protection
Co-chair Mimi Drew, Secretary
Designee Bob Ballard, Deputy Secretary,
Land and Recreation