patrickbdevaney/mia9 · Datasets at Hugging Face

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Bruce C. Douglas, Florida International
University
Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute of Climate
Impact Research
Barrier Islands, Beaches, and Inlets
Gary Appelson, Sea Turtle Conservancy
Robert Dean, University of Florida
Ping Wang, University of South Florida
Estuaries, Tidal Rivers, and Coastal Forests
Carlos A. Coronado-Molina, South Florida
Water Management District
Jay Leverone, Sarasota Bay Estuary Program
James T. Morris, Belle W. Baruch Institute for
Marine and Coastal Sciences
Roger J. Zimmerman, NOAA Southeast
Fisheries Science Center
Coastal Communities*
Gary Appelson, Sea Turtle Conservancy
George Crozier, Dauphin Island Laboratory
Scott L. Douglass, University of South
Alabama
Editorial assistance was provided by Becky Prado and
Linda Sedlacek, Office of Coastal and Aquatic Managed Areas, Florida Department of Environmental Protection; and by Llyn French, Florida Fish and Wildlife
Conservation Commission. Graphic design was
provided by Rebecca Eisman, Creative Endeavors. This
publication was produced by Llyn French, FWC.
*Coastal Communities comprises the following sections:
Higher Storm Surge and Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure, Threats to Coastal Water Supply and Wastewater
Treatment, Increases in Beach Erosion and Renourishment, Impacts on Coastal Planning, and Increased
Flooding Risks.
iv

Sea level has risen slowly during the period of
Florida’s modern settlement. Over the course of
centuries when sea level was stable by geologic
standards, natural systems developed an intimate relationship with the land–sea boundary.
Marshes and mangroves expanded to the very
limit of their abilities; intertidal oyster reefs became closely calibrated to tides, and seagrass
beds grew as deeply as light penetration
allowed.
Humans have followed the same course. Today,
across the coastlines of the state, our infrastructure has extended as far out and as far
down as we have been able to engineer. We
live literally at the edge of the sea. Over the
course of recent decades, the slowly rising sea
level has affected structures such as roads,
drains, seawalls, and buildings that were originally built with some margin of safety from the
water’s edge.
The rate of sea-level rise has increased from the
19th century to the 20th, and for the past 20
years the rate of global sea-level rise has been
about 80% faster than the best estimate of the
United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report released only a few years ago. The discrepancy is attributed to previously unreckonable
contributions of water from melting ice reservoirs.
Recent estimates of melt-water contributions support a sea level in 2100 that is significantly
higher than projected by the last IPCC, and the
estimates indicate that sea level will continue to
rise long after 2100.
Even at today’s rate, sea-level rise is causing discernable effects in natural coastal ecosystems
around Florida and presents everyday challenges to those responsible for maintaining
drainage systems, recreational beaches, coastal
highways, and emergency preparations.
Stresses caused by today’s rate of sea-level rise
are more pronounced in southern Florida than
in the Panhandle; but as the rate of sea-level rise
accelerates, nearly all of the state’s coastal
ecosystems and infrastructure will be challenged
as never before.
Barrier islands and the ecosystems they support
will be affected profoundly by accelerated
rates of sea-level rise, as will beach and inlet
systems. Ecosystems of Florida Bay, the Everglades, the Ten Thousand Islands, and the Big
Bend coastline are already exhibiting signs of
sea-level stress. Ecological forecasts for these
low-lying areas are consequential. Effects of sealevel rise will manifest in Florida’s large estuaries such as Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor, and
the Indian River Lagoon, and then effects will
become apparent in tidal rivers. Inland systems such as the St. Johns River will also be affected. Major shifts in the locations of plant and
animal communities are expected.
Executive Summary
v

Infrastructure of coastal communities is practically
fixed in place, although some was built to accommodate storm surge. Virtually none of
Florida’s infrastructure was built to accommodate
significant sea-level rise. Much of the current infrastructure of coastal Florida will need to be replaced or improved as sea level rises. Short-lived
and localized storm surges will also reach
higher and penetrate farther inland as sea level
rises, but even without storms, sea level will continuously affect every part of Florida’s shoreline
wetted by tides. Even areas and resources removed from the coast, such as Florida’s Biscayne
Aquifer, are already experiencing saltwater intrusion, which is exacerbated by sea-level rise.
Sea-level rise is as clear a signal of climate
change as increasing carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperature trends. No scientific evidence available today suggests that
sea level will stabilize. Sea level is rising and
is likely to rise faster as each decade passes,
continuing for a considerable period of time.
Evidence marshaled in this report underscores
the challenge facing Florida for generations to
come. Several local communities have begun
to respond. Our wisest course is to expand our

Bruce C. Douglas, Florida International

University

Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute of Climate

Impact Research

Barrier Islands, Beaches, and Inlets

Gary Appelson, Sea Turtle Conservancy

Robert Dean, University of Florida

Ping Wang, University of South Florida

Estuaries, Tidal Rivers, and Coastal Forests

Carlos A. Coronado-Molina, South Florida

Water Management District

Jay Leverone, Sarasota Bay Estuary Program

James T. Morris, Belle W. Baruch Institute for

Marine and Coastal Sciences

Roger J. Zimmerman, NOAA Southeast

Fisheries Science Center

Coastal Communities*

Gary Appelson, Sea Turtle Conservancy

George Crozier, Dauphin Island Laboratory

Scott L. Douglass, University of South

Alabama

Editorial assistance was provided by Becky Prado and

Linda Sedlacek, Office of Coastal and Aquatic Managed Areas, Florida Department of Environmental Protection; and by Llyn French, Florida Fish and Wildlife

Conservation Commission. Graphic design was

provided by Rebecca Eisman, Creative Endeavors. This

publication was produced by Llyn French, FWC.

*Coastal Communities comprises the following sections:

Higher Storm Surge and Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure, Threats to Coastal Water Supply and Wastewater

Treatment, Increases in Beach Erosion and Renourishment, Impacts on Coastal Planning, and Increased

Flooding Risks.

iv

Sea level has risen slowly during the period of

Florida’s modern settlement. Over the course of

centuries when sea level was stable by geologic

standards, natural systems developed an intimate relationship with the land–sea boundary.

Marshes and mangroves expanded to the very

limit of their abilities; intertidal oyster reefs became closely calibrated to tides, and seagrass

beds grew as deeply as light penetration

allowed.

Humans have followed the same course. Today,

across the coastlines of the state, our infrastructure has extended as far out and as far

down as we have been able to engineer. We

live literally at the edge of the sea. Over the

course of recent decades, the slowly rising sea

level has affected structures such as roads,

drains, seawalls, and buildings that were originally built with some margin of safety from the

water’s edge.

The rate of sea-level rise has increased from the

19th century to the 20th, and for the past 20

years the rate of global sea-level rise has been

about 80% faster than the best estimate of the

United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report released only a few years ago. The discrepancy is attributed to previously unreckonable

contributions of water from melting ice reservoirs.

Recent estimates of melt-water contributions support a sea level in 2100 that is significantly

higher than projected by the last IPCC, and the

estimates indicate that sea level will continue to

rise long after 2100.

Even at today’s rate, sea-level rise is causing discernable effects in natural coastal ecosystems

around Florida and presents everyday challenges to those responsible for maintaining

drainage systems, recreational beaches, coastal

highways, and emergency preparations.

Stresses caused by today’s rate of sea-level rise

are more pronounced in southern Florida than

in the Panhandle; but as the rate of sea-level rise

accelerates, nearly all of the state’s coastal

ecosystems and infrastructure will be challenged

as never before.

Barrier islands and the ecosystems they support

will be affected profoundly by accelerated

rates of sea-level rise, as will beach and inlet

systems. Ecosystems of Florida Bay, the Everglades, the Ten Thousand Islands, and the Big

Bend coastline are already exhibiting signs of

sea-level stress. Ecological forecasts for these

low-lying areas are consequential. Effects of sealevel rise will manifest in Florida’s large estuaries such as Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor, and

the Indian River Lagoon, and then effects will

become apparent in tidal rivers. Inland systems such as the St. Johns River will also be affected. Major shifts in the locations of plant and

animal communities are expected.

Executive Summary

v

Infrastructure of coastal communities is practically

fixed in place, although some was built to accommodate storm surge. Virtually none of

Florida’s infrastructure was built to accommodate

significant sea-level rise. Much of the current infrastructure of coastal Florida will need to be replaced or improved as sea level rises. Short-lived

and localized storm surges will also reach

higher and penetrate farther inland as sea level

rises, but even without storms, sea level will continuously affect every part of Florida’s shoreline

wetted by tides. Even areas and resources removed from the coast, such as Florida’s Biscayne

Aquifer, are already experiencing saltwater intrusion, which is exacerbated by sea-level rise.

Sea-level rise is as clear a signal of climate

change as increasing carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperature trends. No scientific evidence available today suggests that

sea level will stabilize. Sea level is rising and

is likely to rise faster as each decade passes,

continuing for a considerable period of time.

Evidence marshaled in this report underscores

the challenge facing Florida for generations to

come. Several local communities have begun

to respond. Our wisest course is to expand our