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response to all of Florida now, while at the same
time increasing our knowledge as recommended by this report.
Photo courtesy of David Shafer, Shafer Consulting
vi

The Florida Oceans and Coastal Council prepared this report to provide a foundation for discussions of the effects of sea-level rise on Florida’s
ocean and coastal resources and to inform
Floridians about the current state of scientific
knowledge regarding sea-level rise and how it
is likely to affect Florida. It provides important information for legislators, policymakers, governmental agencies, and members of the public who
are working to address, or who are interested
in, issues related to sea-level rise in Florida.
Sea-level rise is not a science fiction scenario
but a reality. The scientific consensus reached
in 2007 by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is that
warming of the Earth’s climate system is unequivocally taking place and that such warming will affect sea levels. Two main processes
are causing sea level to rise: the expansion of
ocean water caused by increasing ocean temperature, and the addition of ”new“ water from
melting reservoirs of ice. Other processes are
also at play.
The IPCC report projected a relatively low rate
of sea-level rise during the present century, but
it acknowledged that contributions from glaciers
and ice sheets were probably underestimated.
Studies conducted since 2007 indicate that
such contributions are already becoming significant and will most likely increase, causing
sea-level rise by 2100 to range between 0.5
meter (about 20 inches) to more than a meter
(more than 3 feet). Much has yet to be learned
before sea level can be projected with greater
precision and certainty, but the differences are
largely a matter of when, not whether, economically and ecologically critical levels will be
reached.
Thus the question for Floridians is not whether
they will be affected, but how much—that is,
to what degree sea-level rise will continue,
how rapidly, what other climate changes will
accompany sea-level rise, and what the longterm effects of these changes will be. Some detrimental effects of sea-level rise are already well
documented. Others will begin in the coming
years and decades, and the time is coming
when the state will be simultaneously and continuously challenged by all of these effects.
Florida is especially vulnerable to the effects of
sea-level rise. It has more than 1,200 miles of
coastline, almost 4,500 square miles of estuaries and bays, and more than 6,700 square
miles of other coastal waters. The entire state
lies within the Atlantic Coastal Plain, with a maximum elevation less than 400 feet above sea
level, and most of Florida’s 18 million residents
live less than 60 miles from the Atlantic Ocean
or the Gulf of Mexico. Three-fourths of Florida’s
population resides in coastal counties that genIntroduction
SECTION
I.
I
1

erate 79% of the state’s total annual economy.
These counties represent a built-environment
and infrastructure whose replacement value in
2010 is $2.0 trillion and which by 2030 is estimated to be $3.0 trillion.
In addition, Florida’s coastal and marine resources comprise some of the nation’s most diverse and productive ecosystems, supporting
vast numbers of aquatic and terrestrial animals
and plants—some of which exist nowhere else
on Earth. These ecosystems include the coastal
ocean, barrier islands, bays, estuaries, lagoons,
sounds, tidal salt marshes and creeks, mangrove swamps, shellfish beds, seagrass beds,
coral reefs, and oyster bars. They are an important source of food and other products, perform valuable and irreplaceable ecological
functions at no cost, and provide significant aesthetic and recreational opportunities. Florida’s
life-support system, economy, and quality of
life depend on preserving and sustaining these
natural resources over the long term.
This report updates and expands a section addressing sea level and sea-level rise in the
2009 report The Effects of Climate Change on
Florida’s Ocean and Coastal Resources, prepared by the Florida Oceans and Coastal
Council.
This report employs the same approach as the
2009 report. It carefully identifies what is known
about sea-level rise and describes its effects on
Florida’s ocean and coastal resources. This report
identifies effects for barrier islands, including
beaches and inlets; estuaries, tidal rivers, and
coastal forests; and coastal communities,
including infrastructure, water supply and wastewater treatment, beach erosion and renourishment, coastal planning, and flooding risks.
The potential risks of sea-level rise to Florida’s natural resources and our economy compel us to
seek a thorough understanding of its possible impacts and to provide current and future generations with the information necessary to adjust
to higher sea level.
Our knowledge of sea-level rise and its effects
includes certainties and uncertainties. To distinguish the confidence associated with statements
made in this report, each statement is categorized in terms of what is currently known, what
is probable, and what is possible. “Probable”
means that an effect is highly likely to occur in
the future, whereas “possible” means that it may
occur but that predicted impacts must be carefully qualified to reflect the level of certainty. Photo courtesy of Harold Wanless, University of Miami
I

2

WHAT IS PROBABLE:
Global sea level will continue to rise long after 2100
even if greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized
well before the end of the century.

response to all of Florida now, while at the same

time increasing our knowledge as recommended by this report.

Photo courtesy of David Shafer, Shafer Consulting

vi

The Florida Oceans and Coastal Council prepared this report to provide a foundation for discussions of the effects of sea-level rise on Florida’s

ocean and coastal resources and to inform

Floridians about the current state of scientific

knowledge regarding sea-level rise and how it

is likely to affect Florida. It provides important information for legislators, policymakers, governmental agencies, and members of the public who

are working to address, or who are interested

in, issues related to sea-level rise in Florida.

Sea-level rise is not a science fiction scenario

but a reality. The scientific consensus reached

in 2007 by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is that

warming of the Earth’s climate system is unequivocally taking place and that such warming will affect sea levels. Two main processes

are causing sea level to rise: the expansion of

ocean water caused by increasing ocean temperature, and the addition of ”new“ water from

melting reservoirs of ice. Other processes are

also at play.

The IPCC report projected a relatively low rate

of sea-level rise during the present century, but

it acknowledged that contributions from glaciers

and ice sheets were probably underestimated.

Studies conducted since 2007 indicate that

such contributions are already becoming significant and will most likely increase, causing

sea-level rise by 2100 to range between 0.5

meter (about 20 inches) to more than a meter

(more than 3 feet). Much has yet to be learned

before sea level can be projected with greater

precision and certainty, but the differences are

largely a matter of when, not whether, economically and ecologically critical levels will be

reached.

Thus the question for Floridians is not whether

they will be affected, but how much—that is,

to what degree sea-level rise will continue,

how rapidly, what other climate changes will

accompany sea-level rise, and what the longterm effects of these changes will be. Some detrimental effects of sea-level rise are already well

documented. Others will begin in the coming

years and decades, and the time is coming

when the state will be simultaneously and continuously challenged by all of these effects.

Florida is especially vulnerable to the effects of

sea-level rise. It has more than 1,200 miles of

coastline, almost 4,500 square miles of estuaries and bays, and more than 6,700 square

miles of other coastal waters. The entire state

lies within the Atlantic Coastal Plain, with a maximum elevation less than 400 feet above sea

level, and most of Florida’s 18 million residents

live less than 60 miles from the Atlantic Ocean

or the Gulf of Mexico. Three-fourths of Florida’s

population resides in coastal counties that genIntroduction

SECTION

I.

I

1

erate 79% of the state’s total annual economy.

These counties represent a built-environment

and infrastructure whose replacement value in

2010 is $2.0 trillion and which by 2030 is estimated to be $3.0 trillion.

In addition, Florida’s coastal and marine resources comprise some of the nation’s most diverse and productive ecosystems, supporting

vast numbers of aquatic and terrestrial animals

and plants—some of which exist nowhere else

on Earth. These ecosystems include the coastal

ocean, barrier islands, bays, estuaries, lagoons,

sounds, tidal salt marshes and creeks, mangrove swamps, shellfish beds, seagrass beds,

coral reefs, and oyster bars. They are an important source of food and other products, perform valuable and irreplaceable ecological

functions at no cost, and provide significant aesthetic and recreational opportunities. Florida’s

life-support system, economy, and quality of

life depend on preserving and sustaining these

natural resources over the long term.

This report updates and expands a section addressing sea level and sea-level rise in the

2009 report The Effects of Climate Change on

Florida’s Ocean and Coastal Resources, prepared by the Florida Oceans and Coastal

Council.

This report employs the same approach as the

2009 report. It carefully identifies what is known

about sea-level rise and describes its effects on

Florida’s ocean and coastal resources. This report

identifies effects for barrier islands, including

beaches and inlets; estuaries, tidal rivers, and

coastal forests; and coastal communities,

including infrastructure, water supply and wastewater treatment, beach erosion and renourishment, coastal planning, and flooding risks.

The potential risks of sea-level rise to Florida’s natural resources and our economy compel us to

seek a thorough understanding of its possible impacts and to provide current and future generations with the information necessary to adjust

to higher sea level.

Our knowledge of sea-level rise and its effects

includes certainties and uncertainties. To distinguish the confidence associated with statements

made in this report, each statement is categorized in terms of what is currently known, what

is probable, and what is possible. “Probable”

means that an effect is highly likely to occur in

the future, whereas “possible” means that it may

occur but that predicted impacts must be carefully qualified to reflect the level of certainty. Photo courtesy of Harold Wanless, University of Miami

I

2

WHAT IS PROBABLE:

Global sea level will continue to rise long after 2100

even if greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized

well before the end of the century.