patrickbdevaney/mia9 · Datasets at Hugging Face

text stringlengths 0 6.44k
landward (Hine and Belknap, 1986; Glick and
Clough, 2006; DeSantis et al., 2007). However,
vital wetlands of the Big Bend and the Everglades
are substantial examples of estuarine and coastal
forests and swamps that are retreating or perishing
and being replaced by salt-marsh vegetation or
open water (Williams et al., 1999; Raabe et al.,
2004; DeSantis et al., 2007).
Even at constant rates of sea-level rise, some tidal
wetlands will eventually “pinch out” where their upslope migration is prevented by roads, developments, and upland defenses such as seawalls and
development on the upland interface (Estevez,
1988; Shleupner, 2008).
Studies at Cape Sable recorded rapid filling of
bays to the point that mangrove forests could colonize and flourish—even though this is a period of
quite rapid sea-level rise (Vlaswinkel and Wanless,
2009).
II

8

WHAT IS PROBABLE:
Inundation of habitat on low-lying barrier islands of
the Florida Keys and Ten Thousand Islands will reduce or eliminate habitat for many endemic and rare
species of plants and animals (U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service, 1999).
More low-lying upland coastal forests will be lost during the next one to three centuries as tidal wetlands
expand across low-lying coastal areas and the retreat of forests is blocked by urban development
(Castaneda and Putz, 2007).
Plant communities in tidal rivers and bayheads will
be replaced by low-lying, flood-prone ecosystems or
open water (Rodriguez et al., 2010). Increased
saline flooding will strip upland soils of their organic
content (Wanless et al., 1997; Williams et al.,
1998; Raabe et al., 2007).
Increased air temperatures and reductions in freeze
events will result in mangroves moving northward, replacing salt marsh in some areas (Doyle et al.,
2003; Root et al., 2003). However, some climate
models predict increases in extreme events (Gaines
and Denny, 1993), so hard freezes such as that in
2010 can negatively affect the northern range of
mangroves.
Low-diversity saline-tolerant or brackish wetlands will
replace high-diversity freshwater wetlands in the tidal
freshwater reaches of coastal rivers (Van Arman et
al., 2005).
Major spatial shifts in wetland communities, including invasions of exotic species, will occur (DahdouhGuebas et al., 2005).
Most tidal wetlands in areas with low freshwater and
sediment supplies will “drown” where sea-level rise
outpaces their ability to accrete vertically (Nyman et
al., 1993).
The loss of tidal wetlands will result in dangerous
losses of the coastal systems that buffer storm impacts
(Wanless et al., 1997; Badola and Hussain, 2005).
Recreational and commercial fish species that depend on shallow water or intertidal and subtidal
plant communities will be at risk (DeAngelis et al.,
2005; Glick and Clough, 2006).
As coastlines and wetlands erode with rising sea
level, large volumes of sediment will be delivered
and recycled elsewhere. Some of this sediment will
move offshore, but much may feed shoreward, filling
coastal bays, building mudflats, and being swept
into coastal wetlands. In some areas, there will be
large amounts of organic- and nutrient-rich mud reducing the clarity of our coastal waters (Vlaswinkel
and Wanless, 2009).
Seagrasses and tidal freshwater plants will be redistributed from existing habitats, including expanding
inland. Increased water depth will reduce the amount
of light reaching underwater seagrasses, directly reducing productivity of the affected plants (Short and
Neckles, 1999).
II. Sea-Level Rise and Its Effects
on Florida’s Ocean
and Coastal Resources
Estuarine circulation, salinity, and faunal use patterns are changing (Peterson et al., 2008).
Sea-level rise may not be the only, or even
major, cause of changes observed in some systems. Mud banks are increasing in Florida Bay,
which is becoming more saline as Everglades
flow and seaward gaps change and the sea
level rises (Vlaswinkel and Wanless, 2009).
Seagrass extent has increased in Florida Bay,
trapping sediment and encouraging increased
mudflat height (Vlaswinkel and Wanless, 2009).
II

9

Oyster reefs will become less productive and prolific,
particularly in southwestern Florida where oysters are
restricted to intertidal habitat. Higher rates of sealevel rise will result in upstream movement of optimal
salinity regimes for oysters, and reef production will
shift upstream into the narrow portions of estuaries
and rivers. Given the reduced amount of space,
area for reef development will be decreased. This
may have the confounding effect of altering estuarine
ecology by reducing the amount of oyster reef habitat in estuarine areas (Savarese and Volety, 2001).
WHAT IS POSSIBLE:
The coastal mangrove-forested islands throughout
southern Florida, which are responsible for restricting
nutrient-rich freshwater flow into estuaries, may disappear because of their incompatibility with accelerated sea-level rise. This change will reconfigure the
coastal geomorphology and ecology (Parkinson,
1989; Savarese et al., 2004; Wohlpart, 2007).
More than half of the salt marsh, shoals, and mudflats critical to birds and fishes foraging in Florida estuaries could be lost during the 21st century (Glick

landward (Hine and Belknap, 1986; Glick and

Clough, 2006; DeSantis et al., 2007). However,

vital wetlands of the Big Bend and the Everglades

are substantial examples of estuarine and coastal

forests and swamps that are retreating or perishing

and being replaced by salt-marsh vegetation or

open water (Williams et al., 1999; Raabe et al.,

2004; DeSantis et al., 2007).

Even at constant rates of sea-level rise, some tidal

wetlands will eventually “pinch out” where their upslope migration is prevented by roads, developments, and upland defenses such as seawalls and

development on the upland interface (Estevez,

1988; Shleupner, 2008).

Studies at Cape Sable recorded rapid filling of

bays to the point that mangrove forests could colonize and flourish—even though this is a period of

quite rapid sea-level rise (Vlaswinkel and Wanless,

2009).

II

8

WHAT IS PROBABLE:

Inundation of habitat on low-lying barrier islands of

the Florida Keys and Ten Thousand Islands will reduce or eliminate habitat for many endemic and rare

species of plants and animals (U.S. Fish and Wildlife

Service, 1999).

More low-lying upland coastal forests will be lost during the next one to three centuries as tidal wetlands

expand across low-lying coastal areas and the retreat of forests is blocked by urban development

(Castaneda and Putz, 2007).

Plant communities in tidal rivers and bayheads will

be replaced by low-lying, flood-prone ecosystems or

open water (Rodriguez et al., 2010). Increased

saline flooding will strip upland soils of their organic

content (Wanless et al., 1997; Williams et al.,

1998; Raabe et al., 2007).

Increased air temperatures and reductions in freeze

events will result in mangroves moving northward, replacing salt marsh in some areas (Doyle et al.,

2003; Root et al., 2003). However, some climate

models predict increases in extreme events (Gaines

and Denny, 1993), so hard freezes such as that in

2010 can negatively affect the northern range of

mangroves.

Low-diversity saline-tolerant or brackish wetlands will

replace high-diversity freshwater wetlands in the tidal

freshwater reaches of coastal rivers (Van Arman et

al., 2005).

Major spatial shifts in wetland communities, including invasions of exotic species, will occur (DahdouhGuebas et al., 2005).

Most tidal wetlands in areas with low freshwater and

sediment supplies will “drown” where sea-level rise

outpaces their ability to accrete vertically (Nyman et

al., 1993).

The loss of tidal wetlands will result in dangerous

losses of the coastal systems that buffer storm impacts

(Wanless et al., 1997; Badola and Hussain, 2005).

Recreational and commercial fish species that depend on shallow water or intertidal and subtidal

plant communities will be at risk (DeAngelis et al.,

2005; Glick and Clough, 2006).

As coastlines and wetlands erode with rising sea

level, large volumes of sediment will be delivered

and recycled elsewhere. Some of this sediment will

move offshore, but much may feed shoreward, filling

coastal bays, building mudflats, and being swept

into coastal wetlands. In some areas, there will be

large amounts of organic- and nutrient-rich mud reducing the clarity of our coastal waters (Vlaswinkel

and Wanless, 2009).

Seagrasses and tidal freshwater plants will be redistributed from existing habitats, including expanding

inland. Increased water depth will reduce the amount

of light reaching underwater seagrasses, directly reducing productivity of the affected plants (Short and

Neckles, 1999).

II. Sea-Level Rise and Its Effects

on Florida’s Ocean

and Coastal Resources

Estuarine circulation, salinity, and faunal use patterns are changing (Peterson et al., 2008).

Sea-level rise may not be the only, or even

major, cause of changes observed in some systems. Mud banks are increasing in Florida Bay,

which is becoming more saline as Everglades

flow and seaward gaps change and the sea

level rises (Vlaswinkel and Wanless, 2009).

Seagrass extent has increased in Florida Bay,

trapping sediment and encouraging increased

mudflat height (Vlaswinkel and Wanless, 2009).

II

9

Oyster reefs will become less productive and prolific,

particularly in southwestern Florida where oysters are

restricted to intertidal habitat. Higher rates of sealevel rise will result in upstream movement of optimal

salinity regimes for oysters, and reef production will

shift upstream into the narrow portions of estuaries

and rivers. Given the reduced amount of space,

area for reef development will be decreased. This

may have the confounding effect of altering estuarine

ecology by reducing the amount of oyster reef habitat in estuarine areas (Savarese and Volety, 2001).

WHAT IS POSSIBLE:

The coastal mangrove-forested islands throughout

southern Florida, which are responsible for restricting

nutrient-rich freshwater flow into estuaries, may disappear because of their incompatibility with accelerated sea-level rise. This change will reconfigure the

coastal geomorphology and ecology (Parkinson,

1989; Savarese et al., 2004; Wohlpart, 2007).

More than half of the salt marsh, shoals, and mudflats critical to birds and fishes foraging in Florida estuaries could be lost during the 21st century (Glick