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annual frequency of major hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson
Scale categories 4 and 5) may gradually increase in
response to global warming. Major hurricanes
usually generate the highest levels of storm surge,
which will be exacerbated by sea-level rise. The
potential for damage to infrastructure from these
events may increase by a factor of 30% compared
to current levels (Hoyos et al., 2006; Bender et al.,
2010).
Shoreline retreat and coastal erosion will continue to
increase as sea-level rise accelerates, and combined
with higher water tables, this will undermine sea walls
and other protective structures. Higher sea level and
water tables will also create higher hydrostatic pressure of ground floor slabs and foundations of buildings and infrastructure, resulting in increased risk of
structural damage especially during hurricanes and
coastal flooding (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009; R.A. Alvarez, personal communication).
With a 1-meter (about 40-inch) rise in sea level by
2100, there will be impacts on 9% of Florida’s land
area, which includes more than 4,700 square miles
and 1/10 of the state’s population. Without successful steps to build up or otherwise protect this land
area, which will be expensive and in some areas is
likely to be impossible, the land will be submerged
at normal high tide (Stanton and Ackerman, 2007).
There will be major impacts on real estate now valued at over $130 billion, on half of Florida’s existing
beaches, and on substantial critical infrastructure, including 2 nuclear power plants, 3 state prisons, 68
hospitals, 74 airports, 115 solid waste disposal
sites, 140 water treatment facilities, 334 public
schools, 341 hazardous-material cleanup sites (of
which 5 are Superfund), 1,025 houses of worship,
and 19,684 historic structures (Stanton and Ackerman, 2007).
II. Sea-Level Rise and Its Effects
on Florida’s Ocean
and Coastal Resources
II
12
II. Sea-Level Rise and Its Effects
on Florida’s Ocean
and Coastal Resources
EFFECT : Threats to Coastal Water Supply and Wastewater Treatment
Sea-level rise already threatens the aquifers that have been the principal source of much of Florida’s drinking
water in low-lying coastal areas. This problem will worsen as sea level continues to rise and as withdrawals
of water increase for the anticipated growth in Florida’s population.
WHAT WE KNOW:
Florida‘s Biscayne Aquifer, the principal water
supply to southeastern Florida and the Florida
Keys, is recharged by rainfall and the freshwater
Everglades. Surficial coastal aquifers are already
experiencing saltwater intrusion. Rising sea level
will increase the hydraulic backpressure on
coastal aquifers, reduce groundwater flow toward
the ocean, and cause the saltwater front to move
inland, thus threatening to contaminate water-supply wells in coastal areas with seawater. In the
low-lying southernmost Everglades, sea-level rise
will cause brackish waters to encroach farther
northward.
The Pensacola Bay and St. Johns River watersheds
and southern Florida from Palm Beach to Miami,
the Florida Keys, Naples, and Fort Myers are
especially vulnerable to saltwater intrusion into
municipal freshwater supplies as sea levels rise
(Dausman and Langevin, 2005; Freed et al.,
2005; Murley et al., 2008).
The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan’s
main purpose is to increase freshwater flow to the
southern Everglades. This will help offset the effect
of sea-level rise and help preserve Everglades
ecologies and southern Florida’s water supply
(South Florida Water Management District,
2009a).
The South Florida Water Management District already spends millions of dollars per year to prevent Miami’s Biscayne Aquifer from becoming
brackish (Miller et al., 1989).
Rising sea level will cause groundwater near the
coast to become more saline and groundwater
levels to increase.
WHAT IS PROBABLE:
As sea level continues to rise, these effects will increase the extent of saltwater intrusion especially
during periods of drought and the dry winter/spring
season (Heimlich et al., 2009).
Sea-level rise of 15 centimeters (about 6 inches)
and more will require implementing adaptation
strategies such as water conservation, wastewater
reuse, recovery and recharge, stormwater storage,
alternative water supplies including desalination,
and other advanced water-management strategies
in order to assure adequate water supplies (Heimlich et al., 2009).
If the saline waterfront moves far enough north, it
could contaminate the headwaters of the Biscayne
Aquifer and southern Miami-Dade County’s water
supply (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2007; Heimlich et al., 2009; Karl et al.,
2009).
This contamination would increase the salt content
of leakage into sewer collection systems and complicate wastewater treatment operations. Water and
II
13
wastewater treatment facilities that are located at low