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annual frequency of major hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson
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Scale categories 4 and 5) may gradually increase in
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response to global warming. Major hurricanes
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usually generate the highest levels of storm surge,
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which will be exacerbated by sea-level rise. The
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potential for damage to infrastructure from these
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events may increase by a factor of 30% compared
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to current levels (Hoyos et al., 2006; Bender et al.,
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2010).
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Shoreline retreat and coastal erosion will continue to
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increase as sea-level rise accelerates, and combined
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with higher water tables, this will undermine sea walls
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and other protective structures. Higher sea level and
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water tables will also create higher hydrostatic pressure of ground floor slabs and foundations of buildings and infrastructure, resulting in increased risk of
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structural damage especially during hurricanes and
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coastal flooding (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009; R.A. Alvarez, personal communication).
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With a 1-meter (about 40-inch) rise in sea level by
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2100, there will be impacts on 9% of Florida’s land
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area, which includes more than 4,700 square miles
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and 1/10 of the state’s population. Without successful steps to build up or otherwise protect this land
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area, which will be expensive and in some areas is
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likely to be impossible, the land will be submerged
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at normal high tide (Stanton and Ackerman, 2007).
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There will be major impacts on real estate now valued at over $130 billion, on half of Florida’s existing
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beaches, and on substantial critical infrastructure, including 2 nuclear power plants, 3 state prisons, 68
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hospitals, 74 airports, 115 solid waste disposal
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sites, 140 water treatment facilities, 334 public
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schools, 341 hazardous-material cleanup sites (of
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which 5 are Superfund), 1,025 houses of worship,
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and 19,684 historic structures (Stanton and Ackerman, 2007).
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II. Sea-Level Rise and Its Effects
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on Florida’s Ocean
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and Coastal Resources
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II
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12
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II. Sea-Level Rise and Its Effects
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on Florida’s Ocean
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and Coastal Resources
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EFFECT : Threats to Coastal Water Supply and Wastewater Treatment
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Sea-level rise already threatens the aquifers that have been the principal source of much of Florida’s drinking
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water in low-lying coastal areas. This problem will worsen as sea level continues to rise and as withdrawals
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of water increase for the anticipated growth in Florida’s population.
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WHAT WE KNOW:
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Florida‘s Biscayne Aquifer, the principal water
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supply to southeastern Florida and the Florida
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Keys, is recharged by rainfall and the freshwater
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Everglades. Surficial coastal aquifers are already
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experiencing saltwater intrusion. Rising sea level
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will increase the hydraulic backpressure on
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coastal aquifers, reduce groundwater flow toward
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the ocean, and cause the saltwater front to move
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inland, thus threatening to contaminate water-supply wells in coastal areas with seawater. In the
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low-lying southernmost Everglades, sea-level rise
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will cause brackish waters to encroach farther
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northward.
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The Pensacola Bay and St. Johns River watersheds
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and southern Florida from Palm Beach to Miami,
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the Florida Keys, Naples, and Fort Myers are
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especially vulnerable to saltwater intrusion into
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municipal freshwater supplies as sea levels rise
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(Dausman and Langevin, 2005; Freed et al.,
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2005; Murley et al., 2008).
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The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan’s
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main purpose is to increase freshwater flow to the
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southern Everglades. This will help offset the effect
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of sea-level rise and help preserve Everglades
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ecologies and southern Florida’s water supply
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(South Florida Water Management District,
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2009a).
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The South Florida Water Management District already spends millions of dollars per year to prevent Miami’s Biscayne Aquifer from becoming
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brackish (Miller et al., 1989).
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Rising sea level will cause groundwater near the
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coast to become more saline and groundwater
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levels to increase.
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WHAT IS PROBABLE:
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As sea level continues to rise, these effects will increase the extent of saltwater intrusion especially
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during periods of drought and the dry winter/spring
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season (Heimlich et al., 2009).
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Sea-level rise of 15 centimeters (about 6 inches)
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and more will require implementing adaptation
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strategies such as water conservation, wastewater
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reuse, recovery and recharge, stormwater storage,
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alternative water supplies including desalination,
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and other advanced water-management strategies
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in order to assure adequate water supplies (Heimlich et al., 2009).
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If the saline waterfront moves far enough north, it
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could contaminate the headwaters of the Biscayne
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Aquifer and southern Miami-Dade County’s water
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supply (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
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Change, 2007; Heimlich et al., 2009; Karl et al.,
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2009).
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This contamination would increase the salt content
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of leakage into sewer collection systems and complicate wastewater treatment operations. Water and
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II
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13
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wastewater treatment facilities that are located at low
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