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annual frequency of major hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson |
Scale categories 4 and 5) may gradually increase in |
response to global warming. Major hurricanes |
usually generate the highest levels of storm surge, |
which will be exacerbated by sea-level rise. The |
potential for damage to infrastructure from these |
events may increase by a factor of 30% compared |
to current levels (Hoyos et al., 2006; Bender et al., |
2010). |
Shoreline retreat and coastal erosion will continue to |
increase as sea-level rise accelerates, and combined |
with higher water tables, this will undermine sea walls |
and other protective structures. Higher sea level and |
water tables will also create higher hydrostatic pressure of ground floor slabs and foundations of buildings and infrastructure, resulting in increased risk of |
structural damage especially during hurricanes and |
coastal flooding (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009; R.A. Alvarez, personal communication). |
With a 1-meter (about 40-inch) rise in sea level by |
2100, there will be impacts on 9% of Florida’s land |
area, which includes more than 4,700 square miles |
and 1/10 of the state’s population. Without successful steps to build up or otherwise protect this land |
area, which will be expensive and in some areas is |
likely to be impossible, the land will be submerged |
at normal high tide (Stanton and Ackerman, 2007). |
There will be major impacts on real estate now valued at over $130 billion, on half of Florida’s existing |
beaches, and on substantial critical infrastructure, including 2 nuclear power plants, 3 state prisons, 68 |
hospitals, 74 airports, 115 solid waste disposal |
sites, 140 water treatment facilities, 334 public |
schools, 341 hazardous-material cleanup sites (of |
which 5 are Superfund), 1,025 houses of worship, |
and 19,684 historic structures (Stanton and Ackerman, 2007). |
II. Sea-Level Rise and Its Effects |
on Florida’s Ocean |
and Coastal Resources |
II |
12 |
II. Sea-Level Rise and Its Effects |
on Florida’s Ocean |
and Coastal Resources |
EFFECT : Threats to Coastal Water Supply and Wastewater Treatment |
Sea-level rise already threatens the aquifers that have been the principal source of much of Florida’s drinking |
water in low-lying coastal areas. This problem will worsen as sea level continues to rise and as withdrawals |
of water increase for the anticipated growth in Florida’s population. |
WHAT WE KNOW: |
Florida‘s Biscayne Aquifer, the principal water |
supply to southeastern Florida and the Florida |
Keys, is recharged by rainfall and the freshwater |
Everglades. Surficial coastal aquifers are already |
experiencing saltwater intrusion. Rising sea level |
will increase the hydraulic backpressure on |
coastal aquifers, reduce groundwater flow toward |
the ocean, and cause the saltwater front to move |
inland, thus threatening to contaminate water-supply wells in coastal areas with seawater. In the |
low-lying southernmost Everglades, sea-level rise |
will cause brackish waters to encroach farther |
northward. |
The Pensacola Bay and St. Johns River watersheds |
and southern Florida from Palm Beach to Miami, |
the Florida Keys, Naples, and Fort Myers are |
especially vulnerable to saltwater intrusion into |
municipal freshwater supplies as sea levels rise |
(Dausman and Langevin, 2005; Freed et al., |
2005; Murley et al., 2008). |
The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan’s |
main purpose is to increase freshwater flow to the |
southern Everglades. This will help offset the effect |
of sea-level rise and help preserve Everglades |
ecologies and southern Florida’s water supply |
(South Florida Water Management District, |
2009a). |
The South Florida Water Management District already spends millions of dollars per year to prevent Miami’s Biscayne Aquifer from becoming |
brackish (Miller et al., 1989). |
Rising sea level will cause groundwater near the |
coast to become more saline and groundwater |
levels to increase. |
WHAT IS PROBABLE: |
As sea level continues to rise, these effects will increase the extent of saltwater intrusion especially |
during periods of drought and the dry winter/spring |
season (Heimlich et al., 2009). |
Sea-level rise of 15 centimeters (about 6 inches) |
and more will require implementing adaptation |
strategies such as water conservation, wastewater |
reuse, recovery and recharge, stormwater storage, |
alternative water supplies including desalination, |
and other advanced water-management strategies |
in order to assure adequate water supplies (Heimlich et al., 2009). |
If the saline waterfront moves far enough north, it |
could contaminate the headwaters of the Biscayne |
Aquifer and southern Miami-Dade County’s water |
supply (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate |
Change, 2007; Heimlich et al., 2009; Karl et al., |
2009). |
This contamination would increase the salt content |
of leakage into sewer collection systems and complicate wastewater treatment operations. Water and |
II |
13 |
wastewater treatment facilities that are located at low |
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