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II. Sea-Level Rise and Its Effects
on Florida’s Ocean
and Coastal Resources
Photo courtesy of Guy Weeks—Alligator Point
II

16

WHAT IS PROBABLE:
More local government jurisdictions will complete
greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories and develop
GHG Climate Change Mitigation Plans.
Statutory requirements direct the next round of state
Evaluation and Appraisal Reports (EAR) to be
adopted between November 1, 2010, and April
1, 2018. This round of EAR will include climate
change, sea-level rise, climate-change vulnerability,
II. Sea-Level Rise and Its Effects
on Florida’s Ocean
and Coastal Resources
EFFECT : Impacts on Coastal Planning
Given the substantive impacts that sea-level rise may have on Florida’s coastal communities, there is a need
for comprehensive regional planning to develop effective adaptation strategies. Plans are being developed
in certain coastal areas, but a large percentage of the state’s coastal communities have yet to contemplate
such planning efforts. Because the effects of sea-level rise are likely to be seen first in relation to storm
surges, planning for hurricanes and storm surges is at the front line of sea-level rise planning in Florida.
WHAT WE KNOW:
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in
1998 initiated a study of sea-level rise impacts on
the nation’s economy. In 2000, under a grant
from EPA to the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council (SWFRPC), five of the regional planning councils (East Central, Treasure Coast, South
Florida, SWFRPC, and Tampa Bay) developed
maps that distinguish shores that are likely to be
protected from the sea from those areas that are
likely to be submerged, assuming current coastal
policies, development trends, and shore protection practices. Maps and studies of coastal
Florida sea-level rise were completed in a series
of reports from 2003 to 2004. The updated studies’ results with further analyses are published in
Titus et al., 2009.
The EPA Climate Ready Estuaries Program started
in February 2008 to work with the National Estuary Programs and other coastal managers to assess climate-change vulnerabilities, to develop
and implement adaptation strategies, to engage
and educate stakeholders, and to share the lessons learned with other coastal managers. The
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Engineering Circular 1165-2-211, “Interim Guidance on Sea Level
Change”, was published in July 2009. On October 22, 2009, the Comprehensive Everglades
Restoration Plan developed the Sea Level Change
Guidance Update.
The Southeast Florida Regional Climate Leadership Summit was held October 23, 2009, in
Broward County. This partnership of Broward,
Palm Beach, Miami-Dade, and Monroe counties
formed a regional Climate Change/Green Task
Force. The purpose of this summit was to develop
a regional collaboration to support a coordinated
climate-change strategy. The Florida counties
signed the Southeast Florida Regional Climate
Change Compact to coordinate positions on state
and national legislation on climate change and to
coordinate activities on mitigation and adaptation.
They also committed to preparing an action plan
that will include adaptation strategies.
II

17

and adaptations plans into the Local Government
Comprehensive Plans.
Based on 131 state and local land use plans, Titus
et al. (2009) estimate that almost 60% of the land
below an elevation of 1 meter along the U.S. Atlantic coast is expected to be developed and thus
will be unavailable for the inland migration of wetlands. Less than 10% of the land below 1 meter has
been set aside for conservation.
Environmental regulators routinely grant permits for
shore protection structures (which block wetland migration) based on a federal finding that these structures have no cumulative environmental impact. This
shore protection will have a cumulative impact. If
sea-level rise is taken into account, wetland policies
that previously seemed to comply with federal law
probably violate the Clean Water Act.
WHAT IS POSSIBLE:
All Florida local government jurisdictions will have climate-change adaptation plans completed and be in
the process of implementing revised land-use planning, infrastructure resiliency, and adaptation and
mitigation standards.
The Statewide Florida Climate Change Initiatives in
the Statewide Climate Action Plan and a State Adaptation Plan will be funded and implemented.
Failure to develop and implement appropriate plans
for proactive adaptation could cost the state billions
in lost revenue. Overall, adaptation to climate
change will not be a smooth or cost-free endeavor.
Significant opportunity exists for economic development through land management for climate mitigation
and participation in carbon markets (Mulkey, 2007).
II. Sea-Level Rise and Its Effects
on Florida’s Ocean
and Coastal Resources
Photo courtesy of Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission
II

18

WHAT IS PROBABLE:
Sea-level rise of as little as 3 to 6 inches may begin
to compromise the effectiveness of the area’s coastal

II. Sea-Level Rise and Its Effects

on Florida’s Ocean

and Coastal Resources

Photo courtesy of Guy Weeks—Alligator Point

II

16

WHAT IS PROBABLE:

More local government jurisdictions will complete

greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories and develop

GHG Climate Change Mitigation Plans.

Statutory requirements direct the next round of state

Evaluation and Appraisal Reports (EAR) to be

adopted between November 1, 2010, and April

1, 2018. This round of EAR will include climate

change, sea-level rise, climate-change vulnerability,

II. Sea-Level Rise and Its Effects

on Florida’s Ocean

and Coastal Resources

EFFECT : Impacts on Coastal Planning

Given the substantive impacts that sea-level rise may have on Florida’s coastal communities, there is a need

for comprehensive regional planning to develop effective adaptation strategies. Plans are being developed

in certain coastal areas, but a large percentage of the state’s coastal communities have yet to contemplate

such planning efforts. Because the effects of sea-level rise are likely to be seen first in relation to storm

surges, planning for hurricanes and storm surges is at the front line of sea-level rise planning in Florida.

WHAT WE KNOW:

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in

1998 initiated a study of sea-level rise impacts on

the nation’s economy. In 2000, under a grant

from EPA to the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council (SWFRPC), five of the regional planning councils (East Central, Treasure Coast, South

Florida, SWFRPC, and Tampa Bay) developed

maps that distinguish shores that are likely to be

protected from the sea from those areas that are

likely to be submerged, assuming current coastal

policies, development trends, and shore protection practices. Maps and studies of coastal

Florida sea-level rise were completed in a series

of reports from 2003 to 2004. The updated studies’ results with further analyses are published in

Titus et al., 2009.

The EPA Climate Ready Estuaries Program started

in February 2008 to work with the National Estuary Programs and other coastal managers to assess climate-change vulnerabilities, to develop

and implement adaptation strategies, to engage

and educate stakeholders, and to share the lessons learned with other coastal managers. The

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Engineering Circular 1165-2-211, “Interim Guidance on Sea Level

Change”, was published in July 2009. On October 22, 2009, the Comprehensive Everglades

Restoration Plan developed the Sea Level Change

Guidance Update.

The Southeast Florida Regional Climate Leadership Summit was held October 23, 2009, in

Broward County. This partnership of Broward,

Palm Beach, Miami-Dade, and Monroe counties

formed a regional Climate Change/Green Task

Force. The purpose of this summit was to develop

a regional collaboration to support a coordinated

climate-change strategy. The Florida counties

signed the Southeast Florida Regional Climate

Change Compact to coordinate positions on state

and national legislation on climate change and to

coordinate activities on mitigation and adaptation.

They also committed to preparing an action plan

that will include adaptation strategies.

II

17

and adaptations plans into the Local Government

Comprehensive Plans.

Based on 131 state and local land use plans, Titus

et al. (2009) estimate that almost 60% of the land

below an elevation of 1 meter along the U.S. Atlantic coast is expected to be developed and thus

will be unavailable for the inland migration of wetlands. Less than 10% of the land below 1 meter has

been set aside for conservation.

Environmental regulators routinely grant permits for

shore protection structures (which block wetland migration) based on a federal finding that these structures have no cumulative environmental impact. This

shore protection will have a cumulative impact. If

sea-level rise is taken into account, wetland policies

that previously seemed to comply with federal law

probably violate the Clean Water Act.

WHAT IS POSSIBLE:

All Florida local government jurisdictions will have climate-change adaptation plans completed and be in

the process of implementing revised land-use planning, infrastructure resiliency, and adaptation and

mitigation standards.

The Statewide Florida Climate Change Initiatives in

the Statewide Climate Action Plan and a State Adaptation Plan will be funded and implemented.

Failure to develop and implement appropriate plans

for proactive adaptation could cost the state billions

in lost revenue. Overall, adaptation to climate

change will not be a smooth or cost-free endeavor.

Significant opportunity exists for economic development through land management for climate mitigation

and participation in carbon markets (Mulkey, 2007).

II. Sea-Level Rise and Its Effects

on Florida’s Ocean

and Coastal Resources

Photo courtesy of Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission

II

18

WHAT IS PROBABLE:

Sea-level rise of as little as 3 to 6 inches may begin

to compromise the effectiveness of the area’s coastal