patrickbdevaney/mia9 · Datasets at Hugging Face

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control the processes impacting SST and MHW there (see Section 4.2). It is noted that
these Pearson coefficients are derived from monthly means and, therefore, the general
value (Figure 11a) is different from the one derived from daily values to estimate the lag
between the two time series (Figure 10e; Rp = 0.57). The wind speed interannual trends are
negative at all areas with smaller correlation coefficients between the wind speed and the
SST anomalies compared to the ones correlating air temperature with SST. These coefficients
are similar between the coastal areas, in agreement with the spatial distribution presented
in Figure 10b. The highest values at central EFS were derived for Miami Beach, where the
air temperature conditions showed the weakest impact on SST among all study coastal
Water 2022, 14, 3840 19 of 28
areas. Moreover, very strong decreasing trends of wind speed were computed for both
Miami Beach and Biscayne Bay, contributing to the increasing interannual trends of SST.
Water 2022, 14, x FOR PEER REVIEW 21 of 31
Figure 12. Scatter diagram of daily SST and air temperature anomaly (seasonal cycle excluded),
derived for (a) Biscayne Bay, and (b) Miami Beach covering the 2012–2020 period. The air temperature measurements were collected at the NDBC FWYF1 station located at the coastal area of Miami
(Figure 1). The linear regressions (red lines) and the correlation coefficients (Rp) with and without
the seasonal cycle are also shown. The asterisk (*) indicates that the hypothesis that the correlation
is statistically significant is true (99% MK trend test: pvalue < 0.01).
4.2. Ocean Dynamics Impact on the Temperature and MHW Variability of the Coastal Zone
We showed that the smallest impact of air temperature on the water temperature was
detected along the eastern coasts of Florida, and specifically around the broader Miami
urban area (Figures 10a and 11). Although the areas of Miami Beach and Biscayne Bay
showed similar correlations between atmospheric conditions (air temperature and winds)
and SST variability, the MHWs (7.2 MHW/decade for Biscayne Bay and 10 MHW/decade
for Miami Beach) and SST (0.1 °C/decade for Biscayne Bay and 0.15 °C/decade for Miami
Beach) trends showed significant differences between the two areas (Table 2). Figure 13
presents the mean annual position of the FC as it flows northward along the Straits of
Florida at latitude 26° N from 2012 until 2020, carrying warmer Caribbean waters. The FC
is known to meander between Florida and the Bahamas; the position of its axis has been
calculated here as the 20 °C temperature contour line at 150 m along 26° N [26,28], based
on the 9-year FKEYS-HYCOM model archives.
Figure 12. Scatter diagram of daily SST and air temperature anomaly (seasonal cycle excluded),
derived for (a) Biscayne Bay, and (b) Miami Beach covering the 2012–2020 period. The air temperature
measurements were collected at the NDBC FWYF1 station located at the coastal area of Miami
(Figure 1). The linear regressions (red lines) and the correlation coefficients (Rp) with and without the
seasonal cycle are also shown. The asterisk (*) indicates that the hypothesis that the correlation is
statistically significant is true (99% MK trend test: pvalue < 0.01).
4.2. Ocean Dynamics Impact on the Temperature and MHW Variability of the Coastal Zone
We showed that the smallest impact of air temperature on the water temperature was
detected along the eastern coasts of Florida, and specifically around the broader Miami
urban area (Figures 10a and 11). Although the areas of Miami Beach and Biscayne Bay
showed similar correlations between atmospheric conditions (air temperature and winds)
and SST variability, the MHWs (7.2 MHW/decade for Biscayne Bay and 10 MHW/decade
for Miami Beach) and SST (0.1 ◦C/decade for Biscayne Bay and 0.15 ◦C/decade for Miami
Beach) trends showed significant differences between the two areas (Table 2). Figure 13
presents the mean annual position of the FC as it flows northward along the Straits of
Florida at latitude 26◦ N from 2012 until 2020, carrying warmer Caribbean waters. The FC
is known to meander between Florida and the Bahamas; the position of its axis has been
calculated here as the 20 ◦C temperature contour line at 150 m along 26◦ N [26,28], based
on the 9-year FKEYS-HYCOM model archives.
There is a clear interannual trend of the FC shift toward the eastern Florida coast,
moving to the nearest shore location in 2019 (79.78◦ W; Figure 13). The furthest offshore
positions (easternmost) were computed for 2012. The mean annual SST anomaly and the
mean annual number of MHWs showed increasing trends at both Biscayne Bay (Figure 13a)
and Miami Beach (Figure 13b). However, the interannual variations of the mean SST and
MHW number for Miami Beach follow the FC variability, indicating stronger FC relation
to the ocean temperature variability over this area, which is more exposed to the offshore
ocean dynamics, compared to the enclosed Biscayne Bay. This result may explain the
weaker effect of atmospheric temperature on SST over Miami Beach (Figure 12b) compared
to Biscayne Bay (Figure 12a).
Water Water 2022 2022, ,1414, 3840 , x FOR PEER REVIEW 2220 of 28 of 31
Figure 13. Annual mean of SST anomaly (black line), mean annual number of MHW events (blue
line), and Florida Current (FC) longitude based on the 20 °C temperature contour line at 150 m along
26° N that is derived from the FKEYS-HYCOM numerical simulations for (a) Biscayne Bay, and (b)
Miami Beach during the 2012–2020 period. The maps in the inserts represent the area used to estimate the SST anomaly and the MHW events. The linear trend (dashed line) for each case is also
presented.
There is a clear interannual trend of the FC shift toward the eastern Florida coast,
moving to the nearest shore location in 2019 (79.78° W; Figure 13). The furthest offshore
positions (easternmost) were computed for 2012. The mean annual SST anomaly and the
mean annual number of MHWs showed increasing trends at both Biscayne Bay (Figure
13a) and Miami Beach (Figure 13b). However, the interannual variations of the mean SST
and MHW number for Miami Beach follow the FC variability, indicating stronger FC relation to the ocean temperature variability over this area, which is more exposed to the
offshore ocean dynamics, compared to the enclosed Biscayne Bay. This result may explain
the weaker effect of atmospheric temperature on SST over Miami Beach (Figure 12b) compared to Biscayne Bay (Figure 12a).
The highest number of MHWs at Miami Beach (Figure 13b) was computed for 2019
(10) following a large drop in 2018 (5), when the FC was further away from the Florida
coast (79.66° W); the peak of 2019 and the MHW duration (100 days) were the highest
during the entire 40-year period (Figure 8b). On the contrary, Biscayne Bay revealed its
highest MHW number in 2020, when the warm FC was away from the coast (Figure 13a).
The FC seasonal variability is characterized by more onshore positions during winter and
autumn months and more offshore shifts during summer (Figure 14a). This finding agrees
with the distribution of the high 90th percentiles over the Straits of Florida during winter
and the lower levels than the WFS and EFS areas during the summer months due to the
Figure 13. Annual mean of SST anomaly (black line), mean annual number of MHW events (blue
line), and Florida Current (FC) longitude based on the 20 ◦C temperature contour line at 150 m
along 26◦ N that is derived from the FKEYS-HYCOM numerical simulations for (a) Biscayne Bay,
and (b) Miami Beach during the 2012–2020 period. The maps in the inserts represent the area used
to estimate the SST anomaly and the MHW events. The linear trend (dashed line) for each case is
also presented.
The highest number of MHWs at Miami Beach (Figure 13b) was computed for 2019
(10) following a large drop in 2018 (5), when the FC was further away from the Florida
coast (79.66◦ W); the peak of 2019 and the MHW duration (100 days) were the highest
during the entire 40-year period (Figure 8b). On the contrary, Biscayne Bay revealed its
highest MHW number in 2020, when the warm FC was away from the coast (Figure 13a).
The FC seasonal variability is characterized by more onshore positions during winter
and autumn months and more offshore shifts during summer (Figure 14a). This finding
agrees with the distribution of the high 90th percentiles over the Straits of Florida during
winter and the lower levels than the WFS and EFS areas during the summer months due
to the FC evolution that controls the distribution of physical properties over the Straits
(Figure 4; Section 3.3).

control the processes impacting SST and MHW there (see Section 4.2). It is noted that

these Pearson coefficients are derived from monthly means and, therefore, the general

value (Figure 11a) is different from the one derived from daily values to estimate the lag

between the two time series (Figure 10e; Rp = 0.57). The wind speed interannual trends are

negative at all areas with smaller correlation coefficients between the wind speed and the

SST anomalies compared to the ones correlating air temperature with SST. These coefficients

are similar between the coastal areas, in agreement with the spatial distribution presented

in Figure 10b. The highest values at central EFS were derived for Miami Beach, where the

air temperature conditions showed the weakest impact on SST among all study coastal

Water 2022, 14, 3840 19 of 28

areas. Moreover, very strong decreasing trends of wind speed were computed for both

Miami Beach and Biscayne Bay, contributing to the increasing interannual trends of SST.

Water 2022, 14, x FOR PEER REVIEW 21 of 31

Figure 12. Scatter diagram of daily SST and air temperature anomaly (seasonal cycle excluded),

derived for (a) Biscayne Bay, and (b) Miami Beach covering the 2012–2020 period. The air temperature measurements were collected at the NDBC FWYF1 station located at the coastal area of Miami

(Figure 1). The linear regressions (red lines) and the correlation coefficients (Rp) with and without

the seasonal cycle are also shown. The asterisk (*) indicates that the hypothesis that the correlation

is statistically significant is true (99% MK trend test: pvalue < 0.01).

4.2. Ocean Dynamics Impact on the Temperature and MHW Variability of the Coastal Zone

We showed that the smallest impact of air temperature on the water temperature was

detected along the eastern coasts of Florida, and specifically around the broader Miami

urban area (Figures 10a and 11). Although the areas of Miami Beach and Biscayne Bay

showed similar correlations between atmospheric conditions (air temperature and winds)

and SST variability, the MHWs (7.2 MHW/decade for Biscayne Bay and 10 MHW/decade

for Miami Beach) and SST (0.1 °C/decade for Biscayne Bay and 0.15 °C/decade for Miami

Beach) trends showed significant differences between the two areas (Table 2). Figure 13

presents the mean annual position of the FC as it flows northward along the Straits of

Florida at latitude 26° N from 2012 until 2020, carrying warmer Caribbean waters. The FC

is known to meander between Florida and the Bahamas; the position of its axis has been

calculated here as the 20 °C temperature contour line at 150 m along 26° N [26,28], based

on the 9-year FKEYS-HYCOM model archives.

Figure 12. Scatter diagram of daily SST and air temperature anomaly (seasonal cycle excluded),

derived for (a) Biscayne Bay, and (b) Miami Beach covering the 2012–2020 period. The air temperature

measurements were collected at the NDBC FWYF1 station located at the coastal area of Miami

(Figure 1). The linear regressions (red lines) and the correlation coefficients (Rp) with and without the

seasonal cycle are also shown. The asterisk (*) indicates that the hypothesis that the correlation is

statistically significant is true (99% MK trend test: pvalue < 0.01).

4.2. Ocean Dynamics Impact on the Temperature and MHW Variability of the Coastal Zone

We showed that the smallest impact of air temperature on the water temperature was

detected along the eastern coasts of Florida, and specifically around the broader Miami

urban area (Figures 10a and 11). Although the areas of Miami Beach and Biscayne Bay

showed similar correlations between atmospheric conditions (air temperature and winds)

and SST variability, the MHWs (7.2 MHW/decade for Biscayne Bay and 10 MHW/decade

for Miami Beach) and SST (0.1 ◦C/decade for Biscayne Bay and 0.15 ◦C/decade for Miami

Beach) trends showed significant differences between the two areas (Table 2). Figure 13

presents the mean annual position of the FC as it flows northward along the Straits of

Florida at latitude 26◦ N from 2012 until 2020, carrying warmer Caribbean waters. The FC

is known to meander between Florida and the Bahamas; the position of its axis has been

calculated here as the 20 ◦C temperature contour line at 150 m along 26◦ N [26,28], based

on the 9-year FKEYS-HYCOM model archives.

There is a clear interannual trend of the FC shift toward the eastern Florida coast,

moving to the nearest shore location in 2019 (79.78◦ W; Figure 13). The furthest offshore

positions (easternmost) were computed for 2012. The mean annual SST anomaly and the

mean annual number of MHWs showed increasing trends at both Biscayne Bay (Figure 13a)

and Miami Beach (Figure 13b). However, the interannual variations of the mean SST and

MHW number for Miami Beach follow the FC variability, indicating stronger FC relation

to the ocean temperature variability over this area, which is more exposed to the offshore

ocean dynamics, compared to the enclosed Biscayne Bay. This result may explain the

weaker effect of atmospheric temperature on SST over Miami Beach (Figure 12b) compared

to Biscayne Bay (Figure 12a).

Water Water 2022 2022, ,1414, 3840 , x FOR PEER REVIEW 2220 of 28 of 31

Figure 13. Annual mean of SST anomaly (black line), mean annual number of MHW events (blue

line), and Florida Current (FC) longitude based on the 20 °C temperature contour line at 150 m along

26° N that is derived from the FKEYS-HYCOM numerical simulations for (a) Biscayne Bay, and (b)

Miami Beach during the 2012–2020 period. The maps in the inserts represent the area used to estimate the SST anomaly and the MHW events. The linear trend (dashed line) for each case is also

presented.

There is a clear interannual trend of the FC shift toward the eastern Florida coast,

moving to the nearest shore location in 2019 (79.78° W; Figure 13). The furthest offshore

positions (easternmost) were computed for 2012. The mean annual SST anomaly and the

mean annual number of MHWs showed increasing trends at both Biscayne Bay (Figure

13a) and Miami Beach (Figure 13b). However, the interannual variations of the mean SST

and MHW number for Miami Beach follow the FC variability, indicating stronger FC relation to the ocean temperature variability over this area, which is more exposed to the

offshore ocean dynamics, compared to the enclosed Biscayne Bay. This result may explain

the weaker effect of atmospheric temperature on SST over Miami Beach (Figure 12b) compared to Biscayne Bay (Figure 12a).

The highest number of MHWs at Miami Beach (Figure 13b) was computed for 2019

(10) following a large drop in 2018 (5), when the FC was further away from the Florida

coast (79.66° W); the peak of 2019 and the MHW duration (100 days) were the highest

during the entire 40-year period (Figure 8b). On the contrary, Biscayne Bay revealed its

highest MHW number in 2020, when the warm FC was away from the coast (Figure 13a).

The FC seasonal variability is characterized by more onshore positions during winter and

autumn months and more offshore shifts during summer (Figure 14a). This finding agrees

with the distribution of the high 90th percentiles over the Straits of Florida during winter

and the lower levels than the WFS and EFS areas during the summer months due to the

Figure 13. Annual mean of SST anomaly (black line), mean annual number of MHW events (blue

line), and Florida Current (FC) longitude based on the 20 ◦C temperature contour line at 150 m

along 26◦ N that is derived from the FKEYS-HYCOM numerical simulations for (a) Biscayne Bay,

and (b) Miami Beach during the 2012–2020 period. The maps in the inserts represent the area used

to estimate the SST anomaly and the MHW events. The linear trend (dashed line) for each case is

also presented.

The highest number of MHWs at Miami Beach (Figure 13b) was computed for 2019

(10) following a large drop in 2018 (5), when the FC was further away from the Florida

coast (79.66◦ W); the peak of 2019 and the MHW duration (100 days) were the highest

during the entire 40-year period (Figure 8b). On the contrary, Biscayne Bay revealed its

highest MHW number in 2020, when the warm FC was away from the coast (Figure 13a).

The FC seasonal variability is characterized by more onshore positions during winter

and autumn months and more offshore shifts during summer (Figure 14a). This finding

agrees with the distribution of the high 90th percentiles over the Straits of Florida during

winter and the lower levels than the WFS and EFS areas during the summer months due

to the FC evolution that controls the distribution of physical properties over the Straits

(Figure 4; Section 3.3).