patrickbdevaney/mia9 · Datasets at Hugging Face

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an ideal setting for encroachment of the sea. Coastal South Florida is fringed by national parks
including Biscayne and Everglades National Parks, Big Cypress National Preserve and the islandic
Dry Tortugas National Park. This rich natural setting and subtropical climate appeal to human
interests with over six million inhabitants residing along narrow coastal strips along the Atlantic
and Gulf coasts. The sustenance of these natural and human ecosystems is predicated on adequate
freshwater supply, and while South Florida receives an average of 140 cm of rainfall annually, losses to
evaporation are nearly as great as the rainfall itself, and water storage is limited to shallow, permeable
reservoirs and thin surficial aquifers that are experiencing diminishing capacity as rising sea level
drives saltwater infiltration.
Attempts to control the hydrologic resources have resulted in the construction of one of the most
complex and expansive water control projects on the planet with both beneficial and detrimental
impacts on human and natural populations [2,3]. Regional governments recognize the need to assess
and plan for sea level rise implementing a Regional Climate Action Plan [4] with a task force specifically
addressing sea level rise [5]. However, these efforts focus on urban and suburban areas with concern
for property values, transportation, housing, water supply and sewer infrastructure based on global
sea level rise projections that do not reflect local processes and that are not associated with specific
probabilities of occurrence.
Here, we focus on the low-elevation natural areas at the southern end of the peninsula as shown in
Figure 1, as these areas will experience inundation impacts prior to the urban areas, thereby serving as
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5, 31; doi:10.3390/jmse5030031 www.mdpi.com/journal/jmse
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5, 31 2 of 26
sensitive indicators of sea level rise. We evaluate sea level rise inundation impacts under two scenarios,
a low projection and a high projection, based on a synthesis of coupled atmosphere-ocean general
circulation models and tide gauge information reflecting local processes. The high projection represents
an upper percentile (99%) of expected sea level rise given current models and observations, while the
low projection corresponds to a median (50%) sea level rise scenario. Since models, observations and
current scientific understanding are incomplete, these projections are necessarily incomplete and do
not account for a rapid collapse of the Antarctic ice-sheets, a development that is currently unfolding
with potential to render these projections as lower bounds [6,7].
We also examine coastal water level exceedance data, quantifying an exponential increase in
low-elevation exceedances over the last decade. Application of the sea level rise projections allows
us to project these exceedance curves into the future, where one can identify tipping points and time
horizons for the transformation of coastal regions into marine ecosystems. Finally, we introduce a
metric to characterize the transformation of a coastal wetland from a freshwater marsh into a saltwater
marsh based on intrinsic mode functions of water level time series extending landward from the sea.
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
BK
E146
LM
LS
MD
MK
TR
TSH
«
Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe,
GeoEye, Earthstar
Geographics, CNES/Airbus
DS, USDA, USGS, AEX,
Getmapping, Aerogrid, IGN,
Legend
# Monitoring Stations
Canals
Biscayne National Park
Everglades National Park
No Data
Canals, Streams, Land Boundary
Pineland
Urban
Agriculture
Mangrove
Fresh Water Marl Prairie
Cypress
Coastal Prairie
Hardwood Hammock
Coastal Marsh
Fresh Water Slough
Water (0-0.91 m)
Water (0.91- 1.82 m)
Water (1.82+ m)
0 5 10 20 Kilometers
Flamingo
Figure 1. Physiographic map of South Florida representing different ecological domains dictated
by topography, hydrology and climate. Hydrographic stations are denoted with abbreviations; for
example, LM for Little Madeira Bay (Table 1). Everglades National Park (green border) covers the
majority of the region with coastal hydrographic stations in Florida Bay (MK, BK, LM, LS, MD) and
extending upstream to Taylor Slough (TR, E146, TSH). Urban, suburban and agricultural lands featuring
water management canal infrastructure can be seen between Everglades and Biscayne National Parks
(blue border).
Table 1. Hydrographic stations.
Station Location Latitude Longitude Water Level Salinity
BK Buoy Key 25.12111 −80.83356 WaterLog H-331 YSI 600R
E146 Taylor Slough 25.25252 −80.66626 WaterLog H-331
LM Little Madeira Bay 25.17580 −80.63269 WaterLog H-331 YSI 600R
LS Long Sound 25.23516 −80.45680 WaterLog H-331 YSI 600R
MD South Dade 25.28932 −80.39642 WaterLog H-331 YSI 600R
MK Murray Key 25.10613 −80.94232 WaterLog H-331 YSI 600R
TR Taylor River 25.21712 −80.64957 WaterLog H-331 YSI 600R
TSH Taylor Slough Hilton 25.31073 −80.63100 WaterLog H-331
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5, 31 3 of 26
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Sea Level Rise Projection
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) most recent evaluation is the Fifth

an ideal setting for encroachment of the sea. Coastal South Florida is fringed by national parks

including Biscayne and Everglades National Parks, Big Cypress National Preserve and the islandic

Dry Tortugas National Park. This rich natural setting and subtropical climate appeal to human

interests with over six million inhabitants residing along narrow coastal strips along the Atlantic

and Gulf coasts. The sustenance of these natural and human ecosystems is predicated on adequate

freshwater supply, and while South Florida receives an average of 140 cm of rainfall annually, losses to

evaporation are nearly as great as the rainfall itself, and water storage is limited to shallow, permeable

reservoirs and thin surficial aquifers that are experiencing diminishing capacity as rising sea level

drives saltwater infiltration.

Attempts to control the hydrologic resources have resulted in the construction of one of the most

complex and expansive water control projects on the planet with both beneficial and detrimental

impacts on human and natural populations [2,3]. Regional governments recognize the need to assess

and plan for sea level rise implementing a Regional Climate Action Plan [4] with a task force specifically

addressing sea level rise [5]. However, these efforts focus on urban and suburban areas with concern

for property values, transportation, housing, water supply and sewer infrastructure based on global

sea level rise projections that do not reflect local processes and that are not associated with specific

probabilities of occurrence.

Here, we focus on the low-elevation natural areas at the southern end of the peninsula as shown in

Figure 1, as these areas will experience inundation impacts prior to the urban areas, thereby serving as

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5, 31; doi:10.3390/jmse5030031 www.mdpi.com/journal/jmse

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5, 31 2 of 26

sensitive indicators of sea level rise. We evaluate sea level rise inundation impacts under two scenarios,

a low projection and a high projection, based on a synthesis of coupled atmosphere-ocean general

circulation models and tide gauge information reflecting local processes. The high projection represents

an upper percentile (99%) of expected sea level rise given current models and observations, while the

low projection corresponds to a median (50%) sea level rise scenario. Since models, observations and

current scientific understanding are incomplete, these projections are necessarily incomplete and do

not account for a rapid collapse of the Antarctic ice-sheets, a development that is currently unfolding

with potential to render these projections as lower bounds [6,7].

We also examine coastal water level exceedance data, quantifying an exponential increase in

low-elevation exceedances over the last decade. Application of the sea level rise projections allows

us to project these exceedance curves into the future, where one can identify tipping points and time

horizons for the transformation of coastal regions into marine ecosystems. Finally, we introduce a

metric to characterize the transformation of a coastal wetland from a freshwater marsh into a saltwater

marsh based on intrinsic mode functions of water level time series extending landward from the sea.

#

BK

E146

LM

LS

MD

MK

TR

TSH

«

Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe,

GeoEye, Earthstar

Geographics, CNES/Airbus

DS, USDA, USGS, AEX,

Getmapping, Aerogrid, IGN,

Legend

# Monitoring Stations

Canals

Biscayne National Park

Everglades National Park

No Data

Canals, Streams, Land Boundary

Pineland

Urban

Agriculture

Mangrove

Fresh Water Marl Prairie

Cypress

Coastal Prairie

Hardwood Hammock

Coastal Marsh

Fresh Water Slough

Water (0-0.91 m)

Water (0.91- 1.82 m)

Water (1.82+ m)

0 5 10 20 Kilometers

Flamingo

Figure 1. Physiographic map of South Florida representing different ecological domains dictated

by topography, hydrology and climate. Hydrographic stations are denoted with abbreviations; for

example, LM for Little Madeira Bay (Table 1). Everglades National Park (green border) covers the

majority of the region with coastal hydrographic stations in Florida Bay (MK, BK, LM, LS, MD) and

extending upstream to Taylor Slough (TR, E146, TSH). Urban, suburban and agricultural lands featuring

water management canal infrastructure can be seen between Everglades and Biscayne National Parks

(blue border).

Table 1. Hydrographic stations.

Station Location Latitude Longitude Water Level Salinity

BK Buoy Key 25.12111 −80.83356 WaterLog H-331 YSI 600R

E146 Taylor Slough 25.25252 −80.66626 WaterLog H-331

LM Little Madeira Bay 25.17580 −80.63269 WaterLog H-331 YSI 600R

LS Long Sound 25.23516 −80.45680 WaterLog H-331 YSI 600R

MD South Dade 25.28932 −80.39642 WaterLog H-331 YSI 600R

MK Murray Key 25.10613 −80.94232 WaterLog H-331 YSI 600R

TR Taylor River 25.21712 −80.64957 WaterLog H-331 YSI 600R

TSH Taylor Slough Hilton 25.31073 −80.63100 WaterLog H-331

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5, 31 3 of 26

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Sea Level Rise Projection

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) most recent evaluation is the Fifth