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So, in a tragic irony of history, the US invasion led to the formation of the very terrorists the US wanted to eliminate in the first place because Iraq was now the perfect training ground for terrorism. | [
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To understand this complicated conflict better, we need to understand the relationship between the two main branches of the Muslim faith, Shia and Sunni Islam. | [
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Sunnis make up about 80% of the Muslim world and Shia about 20%. | [
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And the hardliners on both sides don't like each other very much. | [
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Saudi Arabia and Iran are the two most powerful players in the game of faiths. | [
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They both have no separation of state and religion, domestic problems, and a lot of oil money. | [
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And they support groups that fight the other religious orientation. | [
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And one of those terror organizations supported by Saudi Arabia was the Islamic State in Iraq, or ISI for short. | [
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In 2010, the Arab Spring happened and changed the whole situation in the Middle East. | [
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In Syria, dictator Bashar al-Assad didn't think much of resigning and started a gruesome civil war against his own people. | [
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The longer the war went on, the more foreign groups joined the fight, most of them for religious reasons and with the goal of building an Islamic state in the region. | [
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And one of them was the infamous ISI, which now became the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or ISIS. | [
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They already quasi-controlled parts of northern Iraq and were very determined to build their religious state. | [
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They'd stolen hundreds of millions from captured banks, making them the richest terror organization on earth, | [
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and they are constantly working on establishing a super medieval religious state. | [
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a living and a stake in the rebuilding of the country, is just sowing the seeds of the next bout of violence. | [
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Just as Europeans forgot how to build indoor plumbing and make cement, will we lose our industrial technology, | [
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Today our cities stretch for thousands of square kilometers, we travel the skies, our communication is instant. | [
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Industrial agriculture with engineered high-yield plants, efficient machinery, and high-potency fertilizer feeds billions of people. | [
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A collapse of the industrialized world literally means that the majority of people alive today would perish since without industrial agriculture we would no longer be able to feed them. | [
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A global civilizational collapse could be an existential catastrophe, something that ruins not just the lives of everyone alive today, | [
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So how likely is all of this? | [
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Let's start with some good news. | [
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While civilization collapses have happened regularly, none have ever derailed the course of global civilization. | [
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Rome collapsed, but the Aksumite Empire, or the Tertiokans, and of course the Byzantine Empire carried on. | [
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So far we've not seen a catastrophe that has killed much more than 10% of the global population. | [
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The last clear example of a rapid global population decrease was the Black Death, | [
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If any event was going to cause the collapse of civilization, that should have been it. | [
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But even the Black Death demonstrates humanity's resilience more than its fragility. | [
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the intense loss of human lives and suffering did little to negatively impact European economic and technological development in the long run. | [
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Population size recovered within two centuries, and just two centuries later the Industrial Revolution began. | [
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History is full of incredible recoveries from horrible tragedies. | [
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Take the atomic bombing of Hiroshima during World War II. | [
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140,000 people were killed and 90% of the city was at least partially incinerated or reduced to rubble. | [
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But against all odds, they made a remarkable recovery. | [
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Hiroshima's population recovered within a decade, and today it's a thriving city of 1.2 million people. | [
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None of this made these horrible events any less horrible for those who lived through them. | [
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But for us as a species, these signs of resilience are good news. | [
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Why recovery is likely, even in the worst case. | [
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One thing that's different from historic collapses is that humanity now has unprecedented destructive power. | [
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Today's nuclear arsenals are so powerful that all-out global war could cause a nuclear winter and billions of deaths. | [
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Our knowledge of our own biology and how to manipulate it is getting so advanced that it's becoming possible to engineer viruses as contagious as the coronavirus and as deadly as Ebola. | [
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Increasingly, the risk of global pandemics is much higher than in the past. | [
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But if, say, 99% of the population died, would global civilization collapse forever? | [
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Could we recover from such a tragedy? | [
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We have some reasons to be optimistic. | [
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Let's start with food. | [
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There are 1 billion agricultural workers today, so even if the global population fell to just 80 million, it's virtually guaranteed that many survivors would know how to produce food. | [
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Maize is 10 times bigger than its wild ancestor. | [
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After agriculture, the next step towards recovery would be rebuilding industrial capacity, like power grids and automated manufacturing. | [
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A huge problem is that our economies of scale make it impossible to just pick up where we left off. | [
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Many of our high-tech industries are only functional because of huge demand and intensely interconnected supply chains across different continents. | [
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Even if our infrastructure were left unharmed, we would make huge steps backwards technologically. | [
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But then again, we are thinking in larger timeframes. | [
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Reconstruction originally happened 12,000 years after the agricultural revolution. | [
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There's a hitch, though. | [
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The industrial revolution was fueled literally by burning easily accessible coal, and we are still very much reliant on it. | [
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If we use it all up today, aside from making rapid climate change much worse, we could hinder our ability to recover from a huge crisis. | [
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So we should stop using easy-to-access coal so it can serve as a civilization insurance in case something bad happens. | [
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Another thing that makes recovery likely is that we'd probably have most of the information we need to rebuild civilization. | [
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