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365,200 | 379,097 | 1 - AC - Entrepreneurship Redistribution | We affirm that the United States should replace means-tested welfare programs with a universal basic income.
Our first contention is Spurring Entrepreneurship.
As middle-class families’ income stagnated through the 2000s, Hersh ‘15 of the Center for American Progress finds that increased financial stress has constrained the creation of new businesses. As a result, Groth ‘19 of Quartz finds that entrepreneurship is at a 40-year low.
Fortunately, Kreng ‘15 of the University of Bristol explains that with a guaranteed income to fall back on, people will be more willing to take the risk of starting a business. In addition, those previously unable to finance their own business would now have the means to start their firms. Thus, Santens of the World Economic Forum quantifies that UBI projects historically increased entrepreneurship by 300.
Crucially, the US Office of Advocacy in 2019 finds that small businesses create two-thirds of new jobs and contribute to 44 of America’s economic activity.
Overall, Jones ‘17 of Future writes that a UBI of $1,000 per month would increase economic growth by 12.56 over the course of eight years.
Furthermore, growth in America leads to growth in the developing world due to increases in trade. Arora ‘06 of the Journal of Economic Integration finds that a 1 increase in US growth increases growth in developing nations by 1. This reduces extreme poverty overseas, as the OECD concludes that a percent increase in GDP decreases poverty by 1.7 in developing countries.
Contention two is the Paradox of Redistribution
A UBI would reduce poverty more effectively than means-tested welfare in two ways:
First is coverage.
Santen ‘16 of TechCrunch explains that states receive welfare funds in block grants without spending requirements, leading to mismanagement and massive undercoverage. Even with proper allocation, McMillan ‘17 of PBS finds that negative stereotypes associated with welfare have created a stigma leaving tens of millions of poor Americans without a safety net.
Even worse, racial biases exclude minorities from welfare. Nadasen ‘16 of Jacobin finds that Clinton’s policies in the 90’s used fingerprinting and drug testing to weed out the “criminal element” of welfare applicants, disproportionately excluding African Americans, many of whom had criminal records due to the disastrous War on Drugs.
Thus, Santen concludes that only about one in four families living below the federal poverty line receives welfare. Overall, Jan ‘19 of the Washington Post quantifies that 13 million people in poverty are disconnected from the social safety net.
A UBI would eliminate these holes by unconditionally distributing wealth, and Porter ‘16 of the New York Times explains that its universal nature would escape the stigma typically attached to programs for the poor.
Second is political reliability.
The nature of welfare is always shifting in today’s political climate. Day ‘18 of Jacobin explains that welfare is often restricted and weaponized by the right because it affects a small share of the population and is perceived as a hand-out to undeserving people.
In contrast, Korpi of the ASR writes that by guaranteeing benefits to all parties in the economic system, universal systems of welfare directly build coalitions between the lower-working and middle class, ensuring the political durability of these policies.
In the long-term, this would lead to a more generous welfare state at all levels of the income spectrum. Moffitt ‘15 of PMC confirms that over time, America’s most universal programs - Medicare and Social Security - have been expanded the most, while means-tested transfers have been redistributed away from the poorest families to those with higher incomes.
For example, Olivier ‘18 of McGill University finds that a one-unit increase in universalism increases social spending by 2.8 percentage points of GDP.
Indeed, Orr ‘18 of the CATO Institute writes that the average welfare package is valued at $6,081, about half the size of a UBI. This is important because the value of welfare benefits is trending down, while a UBI would only grow. Thus, Korpi concludes that the more we target benefits at the poor, the less likely we are to reduce poverty.
For these two reasons, a UBI is bound to improve economic conditions in America. Tanner ‘15 of the CATO Institute concludes that a UBI would lift an additional 50 million people out of poverty.
Thus, we affirm. | 904,057 |
365,201 | 379,115 | mmaduro - shoutout edgemont mm | We negate. Our sole contention is ousting Maduro.
Maduro is the cause of Venezuela’s decline, not sanctions - Forbes ‘20
Kenneth Rapoza (). xx-xx-xxxx. "No, U.S. Sanctions Are Not Killing Venezuela. Maduro Is." Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2019/05/03/no-u-s-sanctions-are-not-killing-venezuela-maduro-is/
Maduro's incompetence, of which the Socialists United rallies around, is killing Venezuela. Not Trump. Not Elliot Abrams. Not Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. This is not a pre-emptive strike, searching for terrorists under beds and weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East. The economy began its deep decline years ago, in the Obama years. It has been in an economic depression for three years. Obama first sanctioned members of the Maduro Administration in 2015. Trump later sanctioned Maduro's Vice President Tareck El Aissami for drug trafficking in February 2017. Later that year, U.S. companies were banned from providing financial assistance (as in loans) to one company only, oil firm PdVSA. Talk of the U.S. banning food and medicine shipments to Venezuela is not entirely true. So long as those shipments are not going to sanctioned individuals, it's not breaking sanctions law. In 2018, the U.S. sanctioned trading in PdVSA bonds in the secondary market. All of those bonds but one were already in default long before those sanctions were announced. Then in 2019, the U.S. asked PdVSA crude oil importers like Chevron to wind down its purchases, demanding PdVSA keep its cash receipts from U.S. sales in its U.S. bank account and not repatriate it to Venezuela. And last week, total bans on PdVSA crude oil shipments to the U.S. began. Venezuela's economy was in dire straits way before this. Worth pondering, if the U.S. sanctions, of which the most serious were only enacted this year, were driving Venezuela to the poor house, why are even worse economic sanctions against Russia not hurting that country just as bad?
Maduro intentionally keeps VZ in poverty - Corrales ‘19
Javier Corrales, 9-25-2018, "Opinion," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/25/opinion/-crisis-venezuela-maduro.html
The economic devastation of the past four years in Venezuela defies words. Registering the world’s highest inflation and a profound recession for these years, Venezuela has become the first country in decades to transition from middle income to almost no income. And it seems that the government has no interest in solving the disaster. Rather, the crisis is starting to look like a deliberate plan. The government’s central response is an economic package — called by its opponents “the Red Package” — comprising nothing more than devaluing the currency by almost 95 percent, redenominating new bills by dropping five zeros and pegging the new bolívar soberano to a nonexistent, nontraded cryptocurrency called the petro. These measures are useless redecorating. Even economists sympathetic to the regime are unimpressed. The government is making the crisis worse by raising the price of gasoline, imposing more price controls, and further curtailing food and medical imports. Other nations and international organizations offer humanitarian help, but President Nicolás Maduro declines. His administration does little while hunger and disease spread. A recent video of the president and his wife feasting on steaks and cigars in a fancy restaurant in Istanbul went viral in part because it captured Mr. Maduro’s indifference. It’s easy to see why the government’s nonchalance strongly suggests this is Mr. Maduro’s strategy. An extremist government like his prefers economic devastation to economic recovery because misery destroys civil society, and with it the potential challenges to tyranny. When economic conditions deteriorate, citizens often choose to protest. But when economic conditions deteriorate to the point of bringing the middle classes to living on less than $2 a month (lower than the average in Haiti) and spreading hunger, the better choice is to fend for yourself or leave the country. Add repression to the mix and the result is an exodus of almost 7 percent of the population, the largest in the Americas since the civil wars in Central America in the 1980s.
Sanctions oust Maduro for 4 reasons.
First is rallying the elites.
Sanctions target the elite and don’t harm the ordinary - Vidal ‘19
Program, 1-31-2019, "US sanctions squeezed Venezuela's Chavismo elites. This time, it's oil.," Public Radio International, https://www.pri.org/stories/2019-01-31/us-sanctions-squeezed-venezuelas-chavismo-elites-time-its-oil
The US is now redirecting PDVSA payments directly to Guaidó as interim president and US national security adviser John Bolton said sanctions would block $7 billion in PDVSA’s assets “plus over $11 billion in lost export proceeds over the next year,” according to Reuters. David Smolansky, former mayor of El Hatillo metropolitan district in Caracas and member of opposition party Voluntad Popular, sees the sanctions as an effective way to pressure Maduro’s government. “Many of these high officials have fortunes in foreign banks and properties in foreign countries,” Smolansky says. “The sanctions have debilitated their possibility to move around internationally as well as their financial possibilities abroad. These sanctions have not hurt Venezuelans, they are individual sanctions coming from multilateral efforts of not only the United States, but also Canada, the European Union, and other Latin American countries.” While “Chavismo” (socialist) elites were hit with a variety of sanctions over the last three years, they’ve done little to make an impact on ordinary Venezuelans, whose lives have spiraled into a humanitarian crisis as hyperinflation has driven nearly 3 million to flee. “The sanctions have nothing to do with hyperinflation (projected to reach a 10 million percent this year), with the fall in oil production, or the food and medicine shortage that has generated a humanitarian and a migrant crisis. The only person responsible for that is Nicolás Maduro,” Smolansky adds.
Elites remove Maduro - Fisher of the NYT
Amanda Taub and Max Fisher, 5-6-2017, "In Venezuela’s Chaos, Elites Play a High-Stakes Game for Survival," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/06/world/americas/venezuela-unrest-protests.html
The violence deepens a monthslong crisis marked by food shortages, economic collapse and Mr. Maduro’s fumbling attempts to consolidate authority. In quasi-democratic systems like Venezuela’s, such pressures have often led elites to force a change, and have provided them an excuse to do so. “The fact that it hasn’t happened in the last two years is the biggest puzzle of all,” said Steven Levitsky, a Harvard University political scientist. “If it happens next week, all of us will say, ‘Yeah, it was bound to happen.’” Still, splits are beginning to emerge, as a few figures in major institutions signal opposition to Mr. Maduro, hinting at growing dissatisfaction and the government’s inability to silence it. Recent actions by both elites and the government suggest they take the possibility of fracture seriously — maneuvering in a high-stakes contest that is potentially decisive but whose outcome remains uncertain.
Second is military defection.
Sanctions cut off financing - Rendon ‘19
Moses Rendon, 9-3-2019, andquot;Are Sanctions Working in Venezuela?,andquot; CSIS, https://www.csis.org/analysis/are-sanctions-working-venezuela
Sanctions are undoubtedly cutting off financing to the Maduro regime, limiting the government’s ability to import food and medicine amid economic freefall. However, reversing sanctions against Maduro and giving the regime access to revenues will not fix the humanitarian crisis for three main reasons: Although government revenues have been used in the past to bankroll social programs, Maduro’s regime has neglected to provide food and medicine to the Venezuelan people. Instead, they have directly profited from these revenues, funding illicit projects and buying the loyalty of military officials. Sanctions are designed to choke off these earnings, weakening Maduro’s grasp on power and therefore accelerating the restoration of democracy. According to the Venezuelan constitution, Maduro has not been the legitimate president of the country since January 10th, 2019. Over 50 countries have denounced his regime and recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until free and fair elections can be held. Granting financial access to Maduro only serves to undermine calls for free and fair elections. Instead, the legitimate government of Venezuela should be given authority over the nation’s resources and institutions. Alternative approaches to the humanitarian crisis can more effectively relieve the suffering of Venezuelans without empowering Maduro with the state’s assets and resources. Sectoral sanctions may be causing harm to vulnerable civilians who are already suffering under hyperinflation and crumbling job prospects.
8 billion in revenue lost
Rodriguez 19 of the Washington post finds(Francisco RodríGuez, 12-4-2019, "Opinion," Washington Post, Washington Post)
Venezuela is living through the deepest economic and humanitarian crisis in our hemisphere in more than a century. This catastrophe was triggered by the mismanagement and corruption of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez. Yet it is now increasingly clear that U.S. economic sanctions are also aggravating it. Since 2017, the Trump administration has progressively imposed an oil and financial embargo that has strongly curtailed the economy’s access to hard currency. After the latest round of oil sanctions this January, made oil production fall fell by 400,000 barrels per day, leading to $8 billion in foregone export revenue. Imports have fallen by more than 50 percent from last year, according to my calculations based on trading-partner data, and now stand at less than one-tenth of their 2012 levels. Sanctions seek to punish governments that violate the rights of their people and induce them to change their conduct. But they can also end up harming the people that they intend to protect. In Venezuela, the escalation of sanctions was part of a strategy of “maximum pressure” aimed at producing a break in the military’s support of the regime. That break has not come about, and Venezuelans now get to live in the worst imaginable world: ruled by a dictatorship and living in a sanctioned economy.
Coup risk is rising AND Maduro’s financing for loyalty is unsustainable - The Conversation 19
Clayton Besaw (). 1-31-2019. "Odds of military coup in Venezuela rise every day Maduro stays in office." Conversation. https://theconversation.com/odds-of-military-coup-in-venezuela-rise-every-day-maduro-stays-in-office-110865
However, Venezuela's risk of coup increases the longer Maduro stays in power, as CoupCast's trove of historic data shows. Maduro's biggest vulnerability is the prospect of further economic decline. Venezuela's oil-fueled government is going bankrupt due to declining petroleum production, US and EU sanctions and seized assets. Eventually, Maduro's strategy of paying the military brass for its loyalty will be unsustainable. Maduro's position becomes especially precarious over time if he continues to stand for election. Authoritarians who hold elections are at higher risk of being deposed — especially if they lose and stick around anyway. Venezuela's coup risk increases the longer Maduro continues to "win" elections as well. However, even the most powerful forecasting models cannot account for everything. Venezuela's deep economic crisis, for example, is somewhat misleading. Citizens are hurting badly, but the Maduro government still has enough funds to offer military leaders governmental appointments and economic kickbacks. That make a serious plot against him less likely. Russia, China, and Turkey have also expressed support for the regime — potentially even military backing — likely depressing coup risk further.
Third is the international community.
RUSSIA SCALING BACK SUPPORT - Kurmanaev ‘19
Anatoly Kurmanaev, 6-17-2019, "Venezuela’s Collapse Frays Its Economic Ties With Russia," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/17/world/americas/venezuela-russia-economy.html
Russia’s public display of support came at a number of crucial moments since the opposition leader, Juan Guaidó, proclaimed himself the country’s interim president in January, challenging Mr. Maduro’s grip on power and plunging the country deeper into political crisis. Russia’s support allowed Mr. Maduro to claim the backing of a powerful ally and to maintain critical support in the military and the ruling party. But in economic matters, Russian state-owned companies are cutting back on the business they do with the bankrupt nation to protect their bottom line, showing the limits of President Vladimir V. Putin’s strategy of propping up an ally and antagonizing the Trump administration. The Russian government has not filled the breach, refusing to issue Venezuela new credit lines, to commit to new investments or even to provide relief on existing debt to ease Mr. Maduro’s battle with the opposition. The Kremlin’s preference for symbolic displays of support instead of long-term investments in Venezuela is partly tied to Russia’s own economic woes. Russia’s five-year stagnation has led to the biggest outbreak of protests since 2013, to an exceptionally steep decline in Mr. Putin’s trust ratings and to growing public aversion to costly foreign adventures, according to Russian polls.
China decreasing VZ support because because of sanctions - Spetalnick ‘20
Matt Spetalnick, 1-15-2020, "U.S. envoy sees China scaling back economic support for Venezuela’s Maduro," U.S., https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-china-russia/u-s-envoy-sees-china-scaling-back-economic-support-for-venezuelas-maduro-idUSKBN1ZE2BO
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Trump administration’s envoy on Venezuela said China appears to be scaling back economic support for President Nicolas Maduro, and Beijing acknowledged a diminishing role largely due to U.S. sanctions against the OPEC nation. As China’s economic activities have declined, Maduro and his socialist government are becoming more reliant on Russia and its oil giant Rosneft as his financial lifeline for staying in power, Elliott Abrams, President Donald Trump administration’s special representative on Venezuela, told Reuters on Tuesday. Abrams said China’s involvement in Venezuela “is diminishing, not growing” because of Beijing’s increased concern about economic mismanagement and corruption under Maduro. Washington and dozens of other countries have recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido, not Maduro, as the country’s legitimate president
Russia and China are propping up the Maduro regime - Humire of The Hill ‘19
Joseph M., 10-4-2019, "To get rid of Maduro in Venezuela, US must challenge his enablers," TheHill, https://thehill.com/opinion/international/464012-to-get-rid-of-maduro-in-venezuela-us-must-challenge-his-enablers
Last week, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, President Trump met with leaders of Venezuela’s interim government, along with representatives of the Lima Group, a 14-nation bloc in Latin America dealing with the crisis in Venezuela. The consensus was clear: Venezuela needs new leadership, without embattled President Nicolás Maduro. In his statement at the meeting, Chilean President Sebastian Piñera underscored that Maduro does not work alone. “We have to realize … that there are international allies helping Maduro in Venezuela and we are talking about countries like Cuba, China, Russia, Iran and Turkey. I think that the whole Latin American community, and maybe the whole world, should be very clear that what they are doing is really affecting the interests of all Latin American countries.” President Piñera is right. To address Venezuela in isolation is to misread the crisis; the Maduro regime is supported by a multipolar network of external state and non-state actors determined to keep the regime in power. Maduro’s reign will not end until this network becomes unraveled. The Center for a Secure Free Society, a Washington-based national security think tank, has coined the acronym “VRIC” for the emerging security and intelligence alliance that is unnatural, unconventional, but increasingly real. The VRIC is reminiscent of the acronym BRIC, coined by British economist Jim O’Neill, which represented the four rising world economies. The VRIC, however, is more sinister, describing the four biggest threats to global security and their increasing reliance on one another: Venezuela (and the broader Bolivarian Alliance), Russia, Iran and China. Despite crippling sanctions, international pressure for regime change, and more than 4 million Venezuelans having fled their country, Maduro still holds onto power with help from the VRIC alliance. There’s no bigger indication that the Maduro regime relies on international support for survival than last week when regime leaders went abroad. In the face of increased pressure, Maduro — who bypassed the General Assembly and instead sent Vice President Delcy Rodriguez — spent last week in Moscow. Maduro brought the power behind the throne, Tareck El Aissami, former vice president and current Minister of Industries and National Production, to discuss international engagement with Russian President Vladimir Putin. El Aissami is currently indicted by the Justice Department, sanctioned by the Treasury Department, and on the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Most Wanted list. While Maduro was in Moscow, the president of Venezuela’s Constituent Assembly, Diosdado Cabello, visited North Korea with a delegation that presented a gift to Kim Jong Un on behalf of Maduro. Venezuela opened its first embassy in Pyongyang in August. Rarely do Maduro, Cabello, Rodriguez and El Aissami leave Venezuela at the same time. But last week demonstrates that the regime, in its weakened state, increasingly relies on its international allies to come to the rescue. It’s a pattern of behavior evident all year. After Feb. 23, when Maduro blocked U.S. humanitarian aid from passing through the Colombian-Venezuelan border, he immediately sent Rodriguez to Russia for talks with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Shortly after, Russia, China and Turkey sent humanitarian aid to Venezuela. The same thing happened in March. When Venezuela experienced a series of countrywide blackouts, China offered its technical support to help end the blackout and Russia sent a 100-person contingent of military “specialists.” Then, after the failed Operación Libertad on April 30, aimed at removing Maduro, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza announced that Russia may send more military specialists. And so they did, in June, when a plane full of Russian military technicians landed in Caracas. The Russia-China tag team has proven effective at neutralizing Interim President Juan Guaidó’s efforts at ending the usurpation of Maduro in Venezuela. This is aided by Iran. Although less visible in Venezuela, the Islamic Republic lends support to Maduro through back channels and strong diplomatic and military relations. During tense times in Tehran, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif traveled to Caracas in July to show solidarity with Maduro and attend the meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement. This came weeks after the top Iranian security official, Ali Shamkhani, met with his Venezuelan counterpart, Gen. Angiollilo Fernández, to discuss security cooperation. Fernández is now in charge of UNEFA, Venezuela’s military academy. While the VRIC nations openly endorse the failed negotiations between Maduro and his opposition, they also feed the failure by dividing the opposition through information operations and active measures carried out by Cuban counterintelligence. It is clear that working with Maduro towards a transition is not an option. But simply targeting Maduro and his regime within Venezuela has proved futile. Forcing Maduro to take an “off-ramp” out of Venezuela means countering his external allies propping him up. Any action taken against Maduro must take into account the external state actors providing lifelines to his government.
Fourth is sparking negotiations.
Maduro is negotiating an exit strategy - Fedirka ‘10
Allison Fedirka, 9-9-2019, "The New US Strategy to Remove Maduro in Venezuela," Geopolitical Futures, https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-new-us-strategy-to-remove-maduro-in-venezuela/
Military intervention was out of the question given the enormous financial and political costs, both at home and abroad. Sanctions were proving effective but couldn’t force Maduro from office on their own. So, the U.S. decided that the time was right for talks with the Maduro regime itself. On Aug. 19, it was reported that a meeting had been held between top U.S. officials and Diosdado Cabello, the vice president of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (the party led by Maduro) and head of the pro-government Constituent Assembly. Maduro, Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez effectively control the government – any deal for a transition would likely require support from all three. The main purpose of the talks reportedly was to discuss an exit strategy for Maduro and his supporters. Shortly afterward, Maduro and U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledged that their countries were in direct talks and that a second meeting was “in the works.” In late August, U.S. special representative for Venezuela Elliott Abrams also suggested that the U.S. and Venezuela were in transition talks and said the U.S. didn’t want to prosecute Maduro and would support a dignified exit. Increasing the Pressure Abrams downplayed the negotiations, saying that they were intermittent and normal communications, but they appear to be getting closer to a resolution. The talks were possible in the first place because sanctions have put substantial pressure on the Maduro government. Over the past year, the U.S. has significantly restricted Venezuela’s access to U.S. dollars with sanctions against Venezuelan officials and companies. Until recently, the Maduro regime had been able to get by by finding loopholes and alternative ways of conducting business with other countries. By late August, however, these lifelines appeared to be faltering. One of Turkey’s largest banks, Ziraat Bank, would no longer do business with Venezuela’s central bank because of U.S. sanctions. And China’s National Petroleum Corporation, a leading buyer of Venezuelan oil, halted August oil loadings also because of sanctions. This is particularly notable given that China was one of the top consumers of Venezuelan oil. (click to enlarge) Venezuela’s historical allies are now primarily concerned about their own business interests in Venezuela. Russia, China and Turkey have all backed the Maduro regime, but none could offer enough support to solve the country’s economic crisis or restore faith in the government. They, too, now see that Maduro is likely on his way out. So long as their business interests are protected and Maduro isn’t forcibly removed from the outside, they too will get on board with a transition. But a transition agreement would also need the support of another critical partner: Cuba. Cuba has supported Venezuela and its security apparatus for over 20 years, and no transition could go ahead without its consent. It appears that Canada, a member of the Lima Group, is playing a key role here, since Ottawa can operate in Cuba in ways that Washington can’t.
There are 2 impacts.
The first is creating good governance.
Democratic government passes good policy - Rendon ‘19
Moises Rendon, 1-17-2019, andquot;Venezuela’s Road to Recovery,andquot; CSIS, https://www.csis.org/analysis/venezuelas-road-recovery
Once Venezuela has a legitimate democratically-elected government in place, the real work will begin. The new administration will face the challenges of institutionalizing long-term social programs, establishing the foundations for long-term economic development, developing legitimate and transparent security institutions, restoring law and order, rebuilding Venezuela’s institutions, providing transitional justice, and supporting the Venezuelan diaspora as it returns home. Social Well- Being One of the most serious social issues facing Venezuela today is food insecurity. Venezuelans reportedly lost 24 pounds on average in 2017, and close to 280,000 children are at risk of dying due to malnutrition. By encouraging development in the agricultural sector and eliminating distortive market controls, the new Venezuelan government can ensure food security in the decades to come. The crisis has also taken a toll on Venezuela’s health care industry, and so rebuilding the health care system must be a priority in Venezuela’s road to recovery. Modernizing infrastructure, rebuilding capacity, and ensuring that all regions in the country have access to health care will be priorities for Venezuela’s health sector. Economic Development The statistics on Venezuela’s economic crisis are well-known at this point; inflation reached over 1 million percent in 2018 and will likely rise to about 10 million percent in 2019 unless policies change. The new government must implement policies to address the economic crisis, including structural, macroeconomic, energy, and mining reforms to ensure Venezuela’s long-term economic stability. Security The mafia state that currently governs Venezuela has given rise to a wide array of security challenges. To address these challenges, comprehensive reforms of local and national security forces, the prison system, and the military will be necessary. The new government will also need to formulate and implement a comprehensive counter-narcotics strategy, working with the United States, Colombia, and other regional allies to confront the growing threat narcotraffickers pose to security and stability. Law and Order Under Maduro, the judicial system has become a weapon for controlling the population and punishing dissent. With the return of democracy, the judiciary must be depoliticized, and domestic and international human rights organizations must be allowed to resume their work.
90 of VZ in poverty - The Guardian
Tom Phillips, 12-6-2018, "'A slow-motion catastrophe': on the road in Venezuela, 20 years after Chávez's rise," Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/06/on-the-road-venezuela-20-years-after-hugo-chavez-rise
On 6 December 1998, Hugo Chávez proclaimed a new dawn of social justice and people power. “Venezuela’s resurrection is under way and nothing and nobody can stop it,” the leftwing populist told a sea of euphoric supporters after his landslide election victory. Two decades on, those dreams are in tatters. The comandante is dead and his revolution in intensive care as economic, political and social chaos engulf what was once one of Latin America’s most prosperous societies. Almost 10 of Venezuela’s 31 million-strong population have fled overseas; of those who remain, nearly 90 live in poverty. To understand Venezuela’s collapse, the Guardian travelled hundreds of miles across the nation Chávez dreamed of transforming, from the spot in downtown Caracas where he gave his first speech as president-elect to his birthplace in the country’s sun-scorched southwestern plains. On the way, we encountered lingering affection for a charismatic populist still celebrated as a champion of the poor, and a determination among Venezuelans from all walks of life to somehow weather the economic cyclone ravaging their country. But above all, there was deprivation, hunger, profound apprehension and seething anger – even among proud chavistas – at a government now incapable of fulfilling its citizens’ most basic needs, and in denial over a humanitarian crisis unprecedented in modern Latin American history.
Venezuela is now a calamity - Tharoor ‘18
Washington Post, 8-23-2018, "Analysis," https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/08/23/venezuelas-refugee-exodus-is-biggest-crisis-hemisphere/
On Wednesday, Ecuadorian officials called for an emergency regional summit so Venezuela and its neighbors can collectively reckon with the crisis. “The capacity of the region is overwhelmed,” said Yukiko Iriyama, a representative in Colombia for the U.N. refugee agency. “The magnitude of the situation really requires a regional comprehensive approach." In Venezuela, blame falls on President Nicolás Maduro, whose government, through widespread graft and incompetence, transformed what was once one of the region’s richest nations into a humanitarian calamity. Maduro himself points the finger at “imperialist” foes abroad seeking to reverse the country’s “Bolivarian revolution” begun by Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s predecessor as president. Over the past week, Maduro’s government has tried to address the economic meltdown by devaluing the bolivar, Venezuelan’s currency, by some 90 percent and tethering it to a new, invented cryptocurrency called the petro. It didn’t seem to help. “With economists saying the new economic measures could make a bad situation even worse, people rushed to supermarkets and gasoline stations to stock up on necessities, while some business owners considered closing for good,” my colleagues Rachelle Krygier and Anthony Faiola reported.
8 million refugees as a result of the crisis - Bahar ‘19
Dany Bahar and Meagan Dooley, 12-9-2019, "Venezuela refugee crisis to become the largest and most underfunded in modern history," Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/12/09/venezuela-refugee-crisis-to-become-the-largest-and-most-underfunded-in-modern-history/
As 2019 comes to a close, four years since the start of the Venezuelan humanitarian crisis, 4.6 million Venezuelans have fled the country, about 16 percent of the population. The figure is strikingly similar to the 4.8 million people that had fled Syria by 2015, four years into the massive forced displacement crisis there. As Figure 1 shows, the Venezuelan refugee crisis is one of the largest in modern history, and, if current trends continue, there could be as many as 6.5 million Venezuelans living outside of the country by 2020 (based on estimates from the U.N. Refugee Agency, UNHCR)—far outpacing the speed of displacement seen in Syria. In prior work, we show that the numbers could be significantly higher if the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela continues to worsen, reaching over 8 million. Unlike other refugee crises, the Venezuelan one is not the result of conventional war or conflict. But the conditions Venezuelans face daily are not much different than those in an active war zone. Since 2013 the Venezuelan economy has contracted by 65 percent, the largest contraction outside of war in 45 years. The only close comparators are countries in active conflict, such as Liberia, which lost 90 percent of its GDP during its bloody civil war. But the Venezuelan economic collapse, which preceded international sanctions, stands out because it was not triggered by external forces or internal unrest: It was manufactured by those in power, and thus, was totally avoidable.
Second is humanitarian aid.
US is trying to send aid to Venezuela but Maduro blocks it - Wamsley ‘19
Laurel Wamsley, 2-8-2019, "Humanitarian Aid Arrives For Venezuela — But Maduro Blocks It," NPR.org, https://www.npr.org/2019/02/08/692698637/humanitarian-aid-arrives-for-venezuela-but-maduro-blocks-it
Trucks full of food and medicine have arrived at the Venezuelan border, setting up a showdown between President Nicolás Maduro and U.S.-backed opposition leader Juan Guaidó. The aid convoy arrived at the Colombian border city of Cúcuta, The Associated Press reports, but Maduro and the military have blocked the Tienditas bridge so that the trucks cannot enter Venezuela. "The United States is prepositioning relief items — including food, nutritional supplements, hygiene kits and medical supplies but — in Colombia so they are available to reach those most in need in Venezuela as soon as possible," a U.S. official told The AP. Maduro has rejected aid offers and says his country has "never been, nor are we, a country of beggars," the BBC reports. It's not clear that the Tienditas Bridge has ever been open. Diario La Opinión, a publication based in Cúcuta, wrote in 2016 that the money spent to build the bridge has not paid off, because "the government of Venezuela insists on closing the border." A photo on Google Maps from June 2017 shows fencing and concrete blocks on the bridge. Venezuela has been in a political crisis since Guaidó, the president of the National Assembly, declared himself interim president last month. Maduro has refused to step aside and accuses the U.S. and others of attempting to overthrow him. Venezuela's economy and medical system have collapsed in recent years, sending millions fleeing from the once-rich country, home to the world's largest oil reserves. Meanwhile, Colombia's migration office has canceled more than 300 daily entrance passes used by Venezuelan politicians and the families of Maduro supporters. "It doesn't make sense that while the Venezuelan people migrate for hunger and need, supporters of the dictatorship enjoy these benefits and enter our country, using this card, to shop, among other things," Christian Krüger Sarmiento, the director general of the migration agency, said in a statement. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted a photo of the barricaded bridge. "The Venezuelan people desperately need humanitarian aid. The U.S. and other countries are trying to help, but Venezuela's military under Maduro's orders is blocking aid with trucks and shipping tankers. The Maduro regime must LET THE AID REACH THE STARVING PEOPLE." Guaidó has been talking about the aid convoys. "While we work every day to successfully achieve the delivery of the humanitarian aid; they insist on taking away the medicines and foods of those who need them urgently," he tweeted. "The first phase continues with collection centers in three allied countries," he wrote, posting photos of the trucks. Maduro has called the convoys "a political show," according to Reuters.
7 million people need humanitarian aid - The Economist ‘19
Economist Staff, December 18th, 2019, "More dollars and fewer protests in Venezuela," Economist, https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/12/18/more-dollars-and-fewer-protests-in-venezuela
Queues at the tills suggest that ordinary shoppers can afford it. The value of dollar notes in circulation now exceeds that of bolívares.The Venezuelan currency itself, in which most people are still paid, is not depreciating quite as fast as it was. The government has tightened banks’ reserve requirements. According to the national assembly, the annual inflation rate has dropped from nearly 3m at the beginning of 2019 to 13,475 in November, which is still the highest in the world by far.“Things are a little better than they were last year,” says Héctor Márquez, a mechanic. Outside Caracas few Venezuelans would agree. People continue to die needlessly in hospitals that lack equipment and drugs. The UN estimates that 7m Venezuelans urgently need humanitarian aid. That has led to internal migration. Many people are fleeing provincial cities for Caracas, where traffic jams are back after disappearing last year. El Chigüire Bipolar (the Bipolar Capybara), a satirical website, has Mr Maduro declaring: “The Republic of Caracas cannot continue receiving Venezuelan refugees.” Quiescence in Caracas is what Mr Maduro most wants. A Venezuelan with access to dollars is less likely to protest against the government, points out Mr Oliveros. That complicates the task of Mr Guaidó, who has promised repeatedly that the Maduro regime will fall “soon”. His main hope had been that the armed forces would switch sides, but there is little sign of that. Mr Guaidó’s new focus is a push for reform of the electoral authority, which the regime counts on to help rig elections in its favour. Its next opportunity will be in the national-assembly election, which is due in December 2020. The regime may hold it earlier. If the opposition loses that vote, Mr Maduro will control all branches of government.
To save the people of Venezuela, we negate. | 904,075 |
365,202 | 379,116 | Cites | Federal Safety Net, Federal Safety Net, "Welfare Budget - Federal Safety Net", Tue Feb 25 2020, http://federalsafetynet.com/welfare-budget.html
Greenstein, "Commentary: Universal Basic Income May Sound Attractive But, If It Occurred, Would Likelier Increase Poverty Than Reduce It | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities", Tue Feb 25 2020, https://www.cbpp.org/poverty-and-opportunity/commentary-universal-basic-income-may-sound-attractive-but-if-it-occurred
Tolbert 16, KFF, "Health Care Spending Among Low-Income Households with and without Medicaid | The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation", Tue Feb 25 2020, https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/health-care-spending-among-low-income-households-with-and-without-medicaid/
Khullar, Health Affairs, "Health, Income, and Poverty: Where We Are and What Could Help | Health Affairs", Tue Feb 25 2020, https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hpb20180817.901935/full/
Emma Court, Market Watch, "America’s facing a shortage of primary-care doctors - MarketWatch", Tue Feb 25 2020, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americas-1-million-doctor-shortage-is-right-upon-us-2016-04-01
Ash, Harvard, "Medical deserts in America: Why we need to advocate for rural healthcare | Harvard Global Health Institute", Tue Feb 25 2020, https://globalhealth.harvard.edu/blog/medical-deserts-america-why-we-need-advocate-rural-healthcare
Aleccia, PBS, "Medicaid covers nearly 104 million medical visits, but that may soon change | PBS NewsHour", Tue Feb 25 2020, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/medicaid-covers-nearly-104-million-medical-visits-but-that-may-soon-change
Myers, NCSL, "Non-Emergency Medical Transportation: A Vital Lifeline for a Healthy Community", Tue Feb 25 2020, https://www.ncsl.org/research/transportation/non-emergency-medical-transportation-a-vital-lifeline-for-a-healthy-community.aspx
HealthITAnalytics, NPR, "Cost is a Primary Driver of Medication Non-Adherence Rates", Tue Feb 25 2020, https://healthitanalytics.com/news/cost-is-a-primary-driver-of-medication-non-adherence-rates
New England Health Institute , "Improved Adherence Highlights Specialty Pharmacy’s Potential | Managed Care magazine", Tue Feb 25 2020, https://www.managedcaremag.com/archives/2009/10/improved-adherence-highlights-specialty-pharmacy-s-potential
Institute of medicine , "More than 26?000 Americans die each year because of lack of health insurance", Tue Feb 25 2020, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2323087/
Cecere, "New study finds 45,000 deaths annually linked to lack of health coverage – Harvard Gazette", Tue Feb 25 2020, https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2009/09/new-study-finds-45000-deaths-annually-linked-to-lack-of-health-coverage/
Wagnerman, "Research Update: Medicaid Pulls Americans Out Of Poverty, Updated Edition – Center For Children and Families", Tue Feb 25 2020, https://ccf.georgetown.edu/2018/03/08/research-update-medicaid-pulls-americans-out-of-poverty-updated-edition/
Jaeger , "Universal Basic Income would cost taxpayers $3.8 trillion per year: study", Tue Feb 25 2020, https://nypost.com/2018/07/12/universal-basic-income-would-cost-taxpayers-3-8t-per-year-study/
Henderson, "Henderson's Case Against a Universal Basic Income - Econlib", Tue Feb 25 2020, https://www.econlib.org/hendersons-case-against-a-universal-basic-income/ | 904,076 |
365,203 | 379,124 | 1 - fem | opensource | 904,086 |
365,204 | 379,159 | B-CC Paraphrasing Interps | Interpretation: when evidence is introduced in round, it must be read as a full cut card and not paraphrased.
Interpretation: when evidence is introduced in case, it must be read as a full cut card and not paraphrased. | 904,199 |
365,205 | 379,150 | Tab N Dab Content Notice | The topical affirmative case on this topic discusses intimate partner violence (IPV). If you are uncomfortable with this argument: please let me know, either in advance or in the room after the content warning is read, I am happy to read a different aff.
Contact Info:
Email: [email protected]
Facebook: Eli Glickman | 904,188 |
365,206 | 379,133 | B-CC Paraphrasing Interps | Interpretation: when evidence is introduced in round, it must be read as a full cut card and not paraphrased.
Interpretation: when evidence is introduced in case, it must be read as a full cut card and not paraphrased. | 904,131 |
365,207 | 379,141 | Gulf TOC NC 1 | Contention One is Assuring our Allies:
Brands 15 of the FPRI Writes:
Brands, Hal. “Retrenchment Chic: The Dangers of Offshore Balancing” Foreign Policy Research Institute, 20 Aug. 2015,
https://www.fpri.org/article/2015/08/retrenchment-chic-the-dangers-of-offshore-balancing/.
U.S. force presence and security
TO
the spread of nuclear arms.
McKenzie 20 of DefenseOne writes:
McKenzie, Pete. “America's Allies Are Becoming a Nuclear-Proliferation Threat.” Defense One, 25 Mar. 2020, www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/03/americas-allies-are-becoming-nuclear-proliferation-threat/164057/.
As the Trump administration
TO
pursuit of nuclear weapons.
AND
the risk of allies
TO
nuclearizing is low.
However, rapidly abandoning seven critical allies would likely push nervous allies across the globe over the edge.
Brown, J. Wellington. “INDISPENSABLE NATION: US SECURITY GUARANTEES AND NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION.” Homeland Security Digital Library, Air University, June 2017, www.hsdl.org/?viewanddid=813351.
Although a nuclear
TO
highly acute threats.
Indeed, Braut-Hegghammer 20 of the Washington Post finds:
Braut-Hegghammer, Målfrid. “Analysis | 2020 Is the Year to Worry about Nuclear Weapons.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 6 Jan. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/01/06/is-year-worry-about-nuclear-weapons/.
the United States’ European and
TO
the U.S. nuclear umbrella.
Just a single ally proliferating would prove catastrophic for global stability.
McKenzie, Pete. “America's Allies Are Becoming a Nuclear-Proliferation Threat.” Defense One, 25 Mar. 2020, www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/03/americas-allies-are-becoming-nuclear-proliferation-threat/164057/.
we’re very worried about
TO
incentives to do the same.”
Thayer 95:
Thayer, Bradley A. “The Causes of Nuclear Proliferation and the Utility of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime.” Security Studies, vol. 4, no. 3, 1995, pp. 463–519. JSTOR, doi:10.1080/09636419509347592.
nuclear proliferation increases the risks of nuclear
TO
authorization, or by third parties,
Kroenig 15 concludes:
Kroenig, Matthew. “The History of Proliferation Optimism: Does It Have a Future?” Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 38, no. 1-2, 2015, pp. 98–125. JSTOR, doi:10.1080/01402390.2014.893508.
Nuclear proliferation contributes to
TO
MAD among rational states.
Avoiding an exponential increase in the risk of nuclear war should always be humanity’s first priority.
Starr, Steven. “The Lethality of Nuclear Weapons.” Institute for Political Economy, PaulCraigRoberts, 30 May 2014, www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/05/30/lethality-nuclear-weapons/.
Once nuclear weapons are
TO
De-escalation” are unrealistic.
Contention Two is Protecting Iraq:
Pollock 20 of the Washington Institute explains:
Pollock, David. “Eight Reasons Why the United States and Iraq Still Need Each Other.” Eight Reasons Why the United States and Iraq Still Need Each Other - The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 9 Jan. 2020, www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/eight-reasons-why-the-united-states-and-iraq-still-need-each-other.
If U.S. troops stay in Iraq, they
TO
an Iraq that is sovereign.
Nejad 20 of Brookings writes:
“Here's What Might Happen If the U.S. Were to Suddenly Quit Iraq: TheTop10News: Breaking World News, Photos and Videos.” TheTop10News, 9 Dec. 2019, thetop10news.com/2019/12/09/heres-what-might-happen-if-the-u-s-were-to-suddenly-quit-iraq/.
a U.S. troop withdrawal “would
TO
Iran on a silver platter
Dalay 20 of Brookings writes:
“Here's What Might Happen If the U.S. Were to Suddenly Quit Iraq: TheTop10News: Breaking World News, Photos and Videos.” TheTop10News, 9 Dec. 2019, thetop10news.com/2019/12/09/heres-what-might-happen-if-the-u-s-were-to-suddenly-quit-iraq/.
Once the U.S. umbrella is
TO
and the central government,”
With nothing standing in its way, Iran would likely crush the Kurds.
Frantzman, Seth J. “Is Iran Trying to Make Northern Iraq Part of Its 'Shi'a Crescent'?” The Jerusalem Post | JPost.com, 9 Apr. 2017, www.jpost.com/middle-east/is-an-increasingly-powerful-iran-trying-to-make-n-iraq-part-of-its-shia-crescent-486373.
today Iran views Kurdish aspirations
TO
Iranian supremacy in Baghdad.
Kakarash-19 of the Jerusalem Post warns:
Kakarash, Sirwan. “Ethnic Cleansing Is Not the Answer to the Kurdish Question.” The Jerusalem Post | JPost.com, 16 Nov. 2019, www.jpost.com/opinion/ethnic-cleansing-is-not-the-answer-to-the-kurdish-question-608051.
The various authoritarian
TO
against the Kurds.
Pollock-20 writes:
Pollock, David. “Eight Reasons Why the United States and Iraq Still Need Each Other.” Eight Reasons Why the United States and Iraq Still Need Each Other - The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 9 Jan. 2020, www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/eight-reasons-why-the-united-states-and-iraq-still-need-each-other.
Iraq is now one of the world’s
TO
its own hegemonic ambitions.
This would be devastating.
McKay, Hollie. “Coronavirus Hasn't Slowed Iran's Terrorism and Proxy Wars, Analysts Say.” Fox News, FOX News Network, 10 Apr. 2020, www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-iran-terrorism-proxy-wars.
The religious regime
TO
to militias in Iraq, Yemen
Connable-20 of the Miami Herald:
Connable, Ben. “After Soleimani Killing, Iraq's Vote to Expel U.S. Troops Is Iran's True Victory: Opinion.” MiamiHerald, Miami Herald, 7 Jan. 2020, www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-ed/article239055258.html.
American troops would have to
TO
bridge across the crescent.
The establishment of this Shiite crescent would be devastating for regional stability.
Wehrey, Frederic M. Beyond Sunni and Shia: the Roots of Sectarianism in a Changing Middle East. Hurst Et Company, 2018.
This geographic bloc of like-minded
TO
Sunni conflict even more”
This would be devastating.
Kedar, Mordechai. “The Most Deadly Middle East Conflict Is Shia Vs.Sunni.” Israel National News, www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/14132.
eight year war
TO
well over a million deaths. | 904,170 |
365,208 | 379,129 | Gulf States AC Cooperation and Israel V1 | Our First Contention Concerns Cooperation
Our current strategy in the Middle East has the region headed towards calamity.
Bolan, Christopher J. “The US Is Trying to Restore Deterrence in the Gulf. That Won't Be Enough.” Defense One, 6 Oct. 2019, www.defenseone.com/ideas/2019/10/us-trying-restore-deterrence-gulf-wont-be-enough/160394/.
The United States’ ability to deter
TO
careen into war.
AND
a failure to address the basic
TO
long-term security of the Gulf.”
Watts 18 explains:
Watts, S., Priebe, M., Frederick, B., Kavannagh, J., and Povlock, M. (2018). U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict. Retrieved March 28, 2020, from https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1900/RR1906/RAND_RR1906.pdf
U.S. commitments and troop
TO
disputes, or even initiating conflicts
Hamidad 13 explains:
Hamidaddin, Abdullah. “A Window for Iranian-Gulf Relations?” Al Arabiya English, Al Arabaya Network, 20 Sept. 2013, english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2013/09/20/A-window-for-Iranian-Gulf-relations-.html.
the American invasion of Iraq
TO
interests regionally and globally.
Fortunately, American withdrawal can foster the collaboration necessary for peace.
Ashford, Emma. “Unbalanced: Rethinking America’s Commitment to the Middle East.” Strategic Studies Quarterly, Cato Institute, 2018, www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/articles/ashford-ssq-november-2018.pdf.
though the Obama administration’s pivot
TO
to build better regional alliances.
A significantly greater reduction in our presence would not only enable the creation of alliances, but would mandate them.
Luck, Taylor. “Iran Crisis: Why Gulf Arabs Increasingly See US as a Liability.” The Christian Science Monitor, The Christian Science Monitor, 8 Jan. 2020, www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2020/0108/Iran-crisis-Why-Gulf-Arabs-increasingly-see-US-as-a-liability.
The Gulf’s dramatic turnabout and push
TO
only way forward with Iran.
This would be catastrophic.
Ostovar, Afshon. “The First Saudi-Iranian War Will Be an Even Fight.” Foreign Policy, 7 May 2018, foreignpolicy.com/2018/05/07/the-first-saudi-iranian-war-will-be-an-even-fight/.
Were such a conflict to occur
TO
in support of the Saudis.
Contention two is reigning in Israel.
Tisdall 19 finds:
Tisdall, Simon. “Why Instinct and Ideology Tell Trump to Get out of the Middle East.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 11 Jan. 2020, www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/11/why-instinct-and-ideology-tell-trump-to-get-out-of-the-middle-east-suleimani-iran?fbclid=IwAR06-cRXalB16uEvdS5-eTrWU-UWpSh-_MbpPdEqgp_vPorzgXCvdGovspg.
a symbolic weakening of America’s
TO
the country was not abandoned.
The creation of such a mutual defence treaty would be a major boon for stability in the region.
Lappin, Yaakov, et al. “Is Now the Right Time for a US-Israel Mutual Defense Pact?” JNS.org, 8 Dec. 2019, www.jns.org/is-it-time-for-a-us-israel-mutual-defense-pact/.
the pact would force
TO
a potential American veto.
Without it, the risks are extremely high.
Allinson, Tom. “Israel-Iran Conflict to Be Major Middle East Issue in 2020: DW: 02.01.2020.” DW.COM, 1 Mar. 2020, www.dw.com/en/israel-iran-conflict-to-be-major-middle-east-issue-in-2020/a-51600787.
Despite their aggressive rhetoric
TO
and more direct confrontation,”
Conflict between Iran and Israel would be absolutely devastating.
Oren, Michael. “The Coming Middle East Conflagration.” The Atlantic, Atlantic Media Company, 5 Nov. 2019, www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/11/israel-preparing-open-war/601285/.
Rockets, many carrying tons of
TO
as high as 4,000. | 904,123 |
365,209 | 379,164 | adv-Broken system | open sourced below | 904,205 |
365,210 | 379,177 | Blake DE Pro 11 | Card Appendix
Sole Contention Economy
This is a majority of theft ~-~-
Chachak 18 (Elias Chachak, writer for The Cyber Research Databank. Published: July 12, 2018. “Is the Threat of Escalation Viable Cyber Deterrence?,” The Cyber Research Databank. https://www.cyberdb.co/category/cyber-warfare/. DOA: 10/19/19) JG
At present, fear… attacks of its own.
IP is a foundational part of the US economy and key to competitiveness
USPTO 16(United States Patent and Trademark Office, 2016, “Intellectual Property and the U.S. Economy: 2016 Update,” https://www.uspto.gov/sites/default/files/documents/IPandtheUSEconomySept2016.pdf DOA 10/24/19) CJV
Innovation and creative endeavors… exports in services.
While internet dependency and the digital economy have been rapidly growing, the risk of cyberattacks and data theft is increasing as well.
Bissell 2019 (2019 Kelly Bissell Global Managing Director Accenture Security, Larry Ponemon Chairman and Founder Ponemon Institute, Ponemon Institute LLC, “THE COST OF CYBERCRIME” https://www.accenture.com/_acnmedia/pdf-96/accenture-2019-cost-of-cybercrime-study-final.pdf DOA: 10/22/19) HS
regulations, such as… report on global risks.6
Companies can lose everything
Kumar et al 17 (Sampath Kumar Venkatachary1, Jagdish Prasad2 , Ravi Samikannu, Amity University, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India, Amity University, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India, Botswana International University of Science and Technology, Palapye, Botswana. “Economic Impacts of Cyber Security in Energy Sector: A Review” ISSN: 2146-4553, 2017, file:///Users/mgpekarek21/Downloads/5283-14219-1-PB.pdf)MP
The motivation of attackers… may lose everything.
Section Nine firms are vulnerable to cyber attack and could take down whole financial sector
Borghard 2018 (Erica Borghard, assistant professor at the Army Cyber Institute at the United States Military Academy at West Point. SEPTEMBER 24, 2018.“Protecting Financial Institutions Against Cyber Threats: A National Security Issue,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace .https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/09/24/protecting-financial-institutions-against-cyber-threats-national-security-issue-pub-77324. DOA: 10/29/19)AO
The U.S. economy… homeland in cyberspace.
Financial system is very interconnected
Santucci 2018 (Larry Santucci, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Senior Research Fellow, Consumer Finance Institute. November 2018. “Quantifying Cyber Risk in the Financial Services Industry,” Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/consumer-finance-institute/payment-cards-center/publications/discussion-papers/2018/dp18-03.pdf?la=en. DOA: 10/23/19 )AO
Regulators in the United States… information security standards. 12
Cyberattack would cause huge economic loss just like a natural disaster
Mee and Shuermann, 18 (Paul Mee is a partner at consulting firm Oliver Wyman and leads its cyber risk practice. Til Schuermann is a partner in Oliver Wyman’s financial services practice and was a senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during the financial crisis. September 14th, 2018. “How a Cyber Attack Could Cause the Next Financial Crisis.” Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2018/09/how-a-cyber-attack-could-cause-the-next-financial-crisis DOA 10/25/19) GSH
Cybercrime alone costs… could have caused blackouts
Cyberattack today would be like the great recession, except no recover since data is destroyed
Mee and Shuermann, 18 (Paul Mee is a partner at consulting firm Oliver Wyman and leads its cyber risk practice. Til Schuermann is a partner in Oliver Wyman’s financial services practice and was a senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during the financial crisis. September 14th, 2018. “How a Cyber Attack Could Cause the Next Financial Crisis.” Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2018/09/how-a-cyber-attack-could-cause-the-next-financial-crisis DOA 10/25/19) GSH
How might a financial crisis… or rendered inaccessible.
This is the number one threat to the economy
Mee and Schermann 2018(Paul Mee, partner at consulting firm Oliver Wyman and leads its cyber risk practice. Til Schuermann, partner in Oliver Wyman’s financial services practice and was a senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during the financial crisis. SEPTEMBER 14, 2018.“How a Cyber Attack Could Cause the Next Financial Crisis,”Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2018/09/how-a-cyber-attack-could-cause-the-next-financial-crisis. DOA: 10/29/19) AO
Ever since the forced… asset bubbles, and other risks.
This is crucial as recession in the US would spread throughout the world
Mauldin 2018 (John Mauldin, financial writer, publisher, and New York Times bestselling-author, President of the investment advisory firm Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC. May 24, 2018. Forbes. "The 2020s Might Be The Worst Decade In U.S. History", https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2018/05/24/the-2020s-might-be-the-worst-decade-in-u-s-history/1#49cc3da548d3. DOA: July 22, 2019.) ALP
I recently wrote… this tightening cycle.
A recession would be devastating for those on the edge of poverty, as
IMF 2013 (IMF, international Monetary Fund. March 14, 2013. IMF.org. “JOBS AND GROWTH: ANALYTICAL AND OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE FUND”, https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/031413.pdf?fbclid=IwAR25z8YmNU34qzj8tb7SOk5yi2xlPWZV6z-LN_jJ-kUZ4JqnCqpiOwr23LM . DOA: July 22, 2019.) ALP
At the same time… adverse shocks (UN, World Economic Situation and Prospects, 2013).
The ability to retaliate is the only way to have cyber deterrence
McKenzie 17 (Timothy McKenzie, a colonel in the USAF assigned to the Space and Missile Systems Center, Los Angeles AFB, California, Air University, January 2017, “Is Cyber Deterrence Possible?”, https://media.defense.gov/2017/Nov/20/2001846608/-1/-1/0/CPP_0004_MCKENZIE_CYBER_DETERRENCE.PDF // DOA: 10/21/19)JDE
“Current US strategy… valuable trade partners.”
Deterrence is the best way to maintain cybersecurity
Hatch 2018 (Hatch, Benjamin B. Lt. Col. "Defining a Class of Cyber Weapons as WMD: An Examination of the Merits." Journal of Strategic Security 11, no. 1 (2018) : 43-61. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.11.1.1657 Available at: https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/jss/vol11/iss1/4 DoA 10/23/19) JJ
Therefore, if the United States responds… conducting a cyberattack.
Offensive cyber could actually stop future attacks
Worldview 18 (Stratfor Worldview, world leading geopolitical intelligence platform, RealClearDefense, October 9 2018, “A New, More Aggressive U.S. Cybersecurity Policy Complements Traditional Methods”, https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2018/10/09/a_new_more_aggressive_us_cybersecurity_policy_complements_traditional_methods_113879.html // DOA: 10/7/19) JDE
“The limitations on… future U.S. attacks.”
US policy is shifting towards more cyber attacks on Iran
Groll 2019 (Elias Groll, a staff writer at Foreign Policy, covering cyberspace. He has worked at the magazine since 2012 and is a graduate of Harvard University. 27 September 2019. “The U.S.-Iran Standoff Is Militarizing Cyberspace,” Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/27/the-u-s-iran-standoff-is-militarizing-cyberspace/. DOA 10/10/19)
But U.S. use … areas of warfare, unfortunately.”
Persistent engagement leads to adversaries switching to defense measures
Healey 19(Jason Healey, Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University’s School for International and Public Affairs specializing in cyber conflict, competition and cooperation, August 26th 2019, Journal of Cybersecurity, “The implications of persistent (and permanent) engagement in cyberspace,” https://academic.oup.com/cybersecurity/article/5/1/tyz008/5554878 DOA 11/3/19) CJV
The USA is… and persistently applied. | 904,216 |
365,211 | 379,259 | Blake DE Aff Stanford | Card Appendix
Kearney and Mogstad 2019 (Melissa S. Kearney* and Magne Mogstad, researchers at The Aspen Institute, August 23, 2019, “Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a Policy Response to Current Challenges” https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/UBI-ESG-Memo-082319.pdf DOA: January 10 2020) SP
Table 1 outlines… as earnings increase.
Yang’s UBI would remove all MTW, but not Medicaid or housing
Jarvis 2019 (James Jarvis, writer for The Hill. 15 October 2019. “Universal basic income advocates warn Yang's 'Freedom Dividend' would harm low-income Americans,” The Hill, https://thehill.com/policy/finance/465906-universal-basic-income-advocates-warn-yangs-freedom-dividend-would-harm-low-income-americans. DOA 2/4/20) WD
“Anyone would be… an unwieldy bureaucracy.”
Straubhaar 17(Thomas Straubhaar, Swiss economist and professor at the University of Hamburg, March-April 2017, “On the Economics of a Universal Basic Income”, Intereconomics, https://archive.intereconomics.eu/year/2017/2/on-the-economics-of-a-universal-basic-income/ DOA 01/09/20) KG
nowadays, one of… reduced or eliminated...11
Dorfman 16 (Jeffrey Dorfman, Contributor for Forbes, October 13th 2016, “Welfare Offers Short-Term Help and Long Term Poverty, Thanks to Asset Tests” Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffreydorfman/2016/10/13/welfare-offers-short-term-help-and-long-term-poverty/#1945588732cd 1/6/20) TCS
The third flaw… trapped in poverty.
Randolph 14 (Erik Randolph, a Public Policy Consultant who provides economic and financial modeling, quantitative research, and fiscal analysis. December 2014. “MAKING WORK PAY IN ILLINOIS: HOW WELFARE CLIFFS CAN TRAP FAMILIES IN POVERTY” IllinoisPolicy. https://www.illinoispolicy.org/reports/modeling-potential-income-and-welfare-assistance-benefits-in-illinois/. DOA: Jan 12 2020) SRW
Rather than providing… financially worse off.
Santens 16 (Scott Santens, a founding member of the Economic Security Project. September 9 2016. “The progressive case for replacing the welfare state with basic income” TechCrunch. https://techcrunch.com/2016/09/09/the-progressive-case-for-replacing-the-welfare-state-with-basic-income/. DOA: Jan 18 2020) SRW
It is this clawback… more than just the details.
Amadeo 2019 (Kimberly Amadeo, writer for the balance. Published 12-13-2019, "Should Everyone Get a Guaranteed Income?," Balance, https://www.thebalance.com/universal-basic-income-4160668. DOA January 4 2019) GKH
An unconditional basic income… ballast during a recession.
IWG No Date (International Workplace Group, a multinational provider of serviced offices and coworking spaces sponsoring MagazineUS. No Date. “How Universal Basic Income could transform work as we know it” IWG. https://www.regus.com/work-us/universal-basic-income-transform-work-know/. DOA: Jan 10 2019) SRW
What’s more,... might otherwise be possible.”
Indrawati 17 (Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Chief Operating Officer and Managing Director at the World Bank, Huffington Post, Dec 6 2017, “Jobs - The Fastest Road Out Of Poverty”, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/jobs~-~--the-fastest-road-o_b_10404594 // DOA: 1/25/20)JDE
“Good jobs… employment for the poor.”
Rosales 15 (John Rosales, contributor for NEAToday, NEAToday, June 8 2015, “Why Students Drop Out: The Economic Pressures That Make Leaving School Unavoidable”, http://neatoday.org/2015/06/08/why-students-drop-out-the-economic-pressures-that-make-leaving-school-unavoidable/ // DOA: 1/26/20)JDE
“Among high school dropouts… native-born U.S. citizens.”
Rosales 15 (John Rosales, contributor for NEAToday, NEAToday, June 8 2015, “Why Students Drop Out: The Economic Pressures That Make Leaving School Unavoidable”, http://neatoday.org/2015/06/08/why-students-drop-out-the-economic-pressures-that-make-leaving-school-unavoidable/ // DOA: 1/26/20)JDE
“In some cases… receive food stamps.”
IWG No Date (International Workplace Group, a multinational provider of serviced offices and coworking spaces sponsoring MagazineUS. No Date. “How Universal Basic Income could transform work as we know it” IWG. https://www.regus.com/work-us/universal-basic-income-transform-work-know/. DOA: Jan 10 2019) SRW
5. Smarter school-leavers… manage this transition.
Ruckert et al 17 (Arne Ruckert, Senior research associate for the Journal of Public Health, 2-2-2017, "Reducing health inequities: is universal basic income the way forward?," OUP Academic, https://academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/article/40/1/3/2966187, DOA: 1/7/20)ET
Education has a prominent role… overall health
Child Fund International 13 (Child Fund International, works with local partner organizations, governments, corporations and individuals to help create the safe environments children need to thrive, Child Fund International, Nov 4 2013, “The Effects of Poverty on Education in the United States”, https://www.childfund.org/Content/NewsDetail/2147489206/ // DOA: 1/26/20)JDE
The poverty rate… to be in poor health.
Kenny 15 (Charles Kenny, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development, The Atlantic, Sep 25 2015, “Give Poor People Cash”, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/welfare-reform-direct-cash-poor/407236/ // DOA: 1/23/20)JDE)
“But more to the point,... biomarkers for stress”
Amadeo 19 (Kimberly Amadeo Over 20 years of senior-level corporate experience in economic analysis and business strategy. Has a master's in management from the Sloan School of Business at MIT. U.S. Economy expert for The Balance, and has been writing for Dotdash (formerly About.com) since 2006. December 13th, 2019. “Universal Basic Income, Its Pros and Cons With Examples.” The Balance. https://www.thebalance.com/universal-basic-income-4160668 DOA 1/7/20) GSH)
In 1967, … the only solution.6?
Amadeo 2019 (Kimberly Amadeo, writer for the balance. Published 12-13-2019, "Should Everyone Get a Guaranteed Income?," Balance, https://www.thebalance.com/universal-basic-income-4160668. DOA January 4 2019) GKH)
An unconditional basic income… ballast during a recession.
Brown 95 (June Gibbs Brown, Inspector General of the Department of Health and Human Services. Published: February 1995. “Welfare Administrative Costs,” Department of Health and Human Services, https://oig.hhs.gov/oei/reports/oei-05-91-01080.pdf. DOA: 1/16/19) JG)
Administrative costs are … roughly half their costs.
Many eligible seniors don’t participate in SNAP because of the stigma surrounding it
NCOA 16(National Council on Ageing, June 2016, "An End to Stigma," NCOA, https://www.ncoa.org/wp-content/uploads/An-End-to-Stigma-Issue-Brief-NCOA.pdf, DOA: 2/6/20)ET
Stigma is best understood… out of poverty in 2014.
Heller 18 (Nathan Heller, Writer for New Yorker, New York Times, Vouge, Socioeconomics writer. July 2nd 2018. “Who really stands to win from Universal Basic Income” The New Yorker, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/07/09/who-really-stands-to-win-from-universal-basic-income 12/25/19) TCS
Framing basic income… direct cash as needed? | 904,311 |
365,212 | 379,249 | neg wiki venezuela | We negate. Resolved: The United States should end its economic sanctions against Venezuela.
Our first contention is shunning:
Nicolas Maduro has been abusing his power and his people in two ways.
Deprivation of Human Rights
United States Department of State 2019 (United States Department of State, 7-25-2019, "Nicolás Maduro: Corruption and Chaos in Venezuela," https://www.state.gov/nicolas-maduro-corruption-and-chaos-in-venezuela-2/ DOA 12/1/19) LX
The former Maduro … enforce social controls.
Blocking necessary humanitarian aid
Kurmanaev and Krauss 19 (Anatoly Kurmanaev, NYT contributor reporting from Caracas, and Clifford Krauss NYT contributor from Houston, New York Times, Feb 9 2019, “U.S. Sanctions Are Aimed at Venezuela’s Oil. Its Citizens May Suffer First.”, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/08/world/americas/venezuela-sanctions-maduro.html // DOA: 12/13/19)JDE
“The opposition plans to bring … not any help, it is a message of humiliation to a people.””
There are two reasons sanctions must remain.
First, sanctions are a moral necessity
Trump imposed new sanctions because of Maduro’s human rights violations
Crowley and Kurmanaev 19 (Michael Crowley, a White House correspondent in the Washington bureau, where he covers President Trump’s foreign policy, and Anatoly Kurmanaev, NYT contributor, New York Times, August 6 2019, “Trump Imposes New Sanctions on Venezuela”, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/06/us/politics/venezuela-embargo-sanctions.html // DOA: 12/12/19)JDE
“President Trump signed an… authority in Venezuela.””
Sanctions are a form of shunning by cutting off the US from the Venezuelan economy.
Even if sanctions cannot change the actions of a country, it still serves as a clear signal of disapproval
Beversluis 1989 (Eric H. Beversluis, 2, April, 1989, “On Shunning Undesirable Regimes: Ethics and Economic Sanctions” Public Affairs Quarterly https://www.jstor.org/stable/40435708 DOA: 12/19/2019) HS
IS often clear that economic… its lack of responsibilit
Second, sanctions are reducing Maduro’s ability to repress his population.
Rendon 19 (Moises Rendon, Director, The Future of Venezuela Initiative and Fellow, Americas Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies, September 3 2019, “ Are Sanctions Working in Venezuela?”, https://www.csis.org/analysis/are-sanctions-working-venezuela // DOA: 12/9/19)JDE
“There is significant evidence… engage with financial assets.”
This is crucial as Maduro cultivated the humanitarian crisis
Escobari 19 (Marcela Escobari, a senior fellow in the Center for Universal Education at Brookings, where she is leading the Workforce of the Future Initiative. She was Assistant Administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Bureau for Latin America and the Caribbean in President Obama’s administration, Brookings Institute, Feb 28 2019, “Made by Maduro: The Humanitarian Crisis in Venezuela and US Policy Responses”, https://www.brookings.edu/testimonies/made-by-maduro-the-humanitarian-crisis-in-venezuela-and-us-policy-responses/ // DOA: 12/15/19)JDE
“Venezuela sits on … and lawlessness that scarcities have fueled.”
The humanitarian crisis is deadly
CRS 19(Congressional Research Service, the nonpartisan congressional institution that provides research to congress on issues they ask for, August 26th 2019, “Venezuela: Political Crisis and U.S. Policy,” https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IF10230.pdf DOA 12/7/2019) CJV
Maduro, leader of the … production worsen social conditions.
Contention 2 is US intervention
Hodgson 2019 explains
Venezuela is… Panama in 1989-1990
Instead, Telesur in 2017 reports . The president of the assembly,... economic aggression against the Venezuelan people.
Sanctions are an alt to war
Turak 19 (Natasha Turak, CNBC correspondant, CNBC, Dec 14 2019, US isn’t weaponizing the dollar; sanctions are the alternative to war, Mnuchin says”, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/14/mnuchin-us-isnt-weaponizing-dollar-sanctions-are-alternative-to-war.html // DOA: 12/19/19)JDE
“Sanctions like those on … said. “So whether it’s North
That’s because political support. Groppe 2019 explains No Republican presidential candidate… Venezuelan populations.
Trump knows he needs a hardline stance on Venezuela for the sake of his re-election ~-~- and it’s either sanctions or war. Wells 2019 finds many disgruntled Venezuelans … significant swing constituency in a swing state in the 2020 elections
Groppe continues South Florida is … in how people vote.”
For this reasons, Jacobs et al 2019 explains
Trump and his advisers… pressure Maduro.
However, Sanctions neutralize the Venezuelan threat, making military intervention unnecessary.
The impact is a refugee crisis and destroying what remains of Venezuela’s security.
Mora 19 (Frank O. Mora, 3-19-2019, "What a Military Intervention in Venezuela Would Look Like," Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/venezuela/2019-03-19/what-military-intervention-venezuela-would-look DOA 12/11/19) MDS
A precision military… in a much smaller country.
Thus we negate.
Contention 2 Card Appendix:
2 options in Venezuela: Cuba-style embargo or Panama-style military invasion
Hodgson 2019 (Fergus Hodgson, Journalist and researcher at the Frontier Centre For Public Policy, "Six Takeaways from Venezuela’s Dystopia," https://fcpp.org/2019/03/27/six-takeaways-from-venezuelas-dystopia/ March 27, 2019, DoA 12/15/19) JJ
Maduro’s latest term in the illegitimate presidency was not a definitive moment. The imposition of the Constituent Assembly in 2017, for example, was as problematic, as was the imprisonment of opposition leader Leopoldo López in 2014. The Trump administration’s latest actions—with the support of democratic allies, including Canada—are having an impact, but they would have been more effective if carried out a decade or more earlier. Venezuela is now in a stalemate that gives two bad options: another Cuba, with poverty and tyranny for generations, or a military intervention akin to Panama in 1989-1990. The latter would be a difficult undertaking, given the presence of Cuban, Russian, and Chinese agents, along with major organized-crime syndicates and terrorist organizations. This need not happen again and could have been avoided with the right attention, both from Venezuelans and international forums such as the Organization of American States. The Chavistas have exemplified the truism that you can vote yourself into socialism, but you will have to shoot your way out.
Trump sanctions are alternative to military intervention
Telesur 2017 (Telesur, Spanish speaking publication, 29 August 2017 "Venezuelan Constituent Assembly Passes Decree Against US Sanctions” https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Venezuela-Constituent-Assembly-Debates-Response-to-US-Sanctions-20170829-0009.html 12/15/19) JJ
Venezuela’s National Constituent Assembly has voted unanimously for a decree opposing the latest U.S. economic sanctions against the country. The decree also says the Assembly will ask the Supreme Court and the Attorney General's Office to investigate and sanction any Venezuelan politicians who encouraged or promoted the imposition of sanctions against their own country. The president of the assembly, Delcy Rodriguez, recalled that opposition leaders had issued a communique at the weekend, "calling for and justifying all these actions and calling on other governments to apply similar sanctions." She explained that U.S. President Donald Trump’s financial sanctions are an alternative to military intervention, which was met with rejection even from U.S.-allied regional right-wing governments. Rodriquez stated that the purpose of these attacks' was to further destabilize the country and “intensify the economic aggression against the Venezuelan people.” The ANC announced on Sunday that throughout this week it will debate how to respond to the wave of “aggression” from the U.S. government and will announce a plan of action Friday.
First link
Trump needs Florida, and Florida needs the Cuban/Venezuelan vote which is earned through sanctions
Groppe 2019 (Maureen Groppe, 2-1-2019, "Trump's Venezuela policy is also good 2020 politics in key state of Florida," Knoxville News Sentinel, https://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/02/01/trump-venezuela-policy-also-good-2020-politics-key-state-florida-maduro-guaido/2730779002/ DoA 12/15/19) JJ
And that could help another embattled president: Donald Trump. No Republican presidential candidate has won the White House in nearly a century without carrying Florida – a state also known for its razor-thin election margins. "It’s very hard to see a scenario where the president gets re-elected without winning Florida," said Democratic strategist Steve Schale who ran Barack Obama's 2008 campaign in Florida. Trump's tough stance on Maduro is very popular in Florida among that state’s Cuban and Venezuelan populations, which account for more than 1.5 million of the state's 21 million residents. It also resonates with the Colombian community, which is growing in political importance in Florida's most populous county: Miami-Dade.
Venezuelans are a swing constituency in a swing state
Wells 2019 (Laura Wells, activist and politician of the Green Party, 6-14-2019, "Why did both Obama and Trump sanction Venezuela?," gp.org, https://www.gp.org/obama_and_trump_sanctioned_venezuela 12/15/19) JJ
One aspect relates to the Electoral College in the United States. Why haven't any political leaders led us out of that outdated, slavery-based, undemocratic disaster? With it, neither Democratic nor Republican candidates have anything to gain by not bashing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Why? Because many disgruntled Venezuelans of the upper classes have moved to Florida and they now organize with hard-line Cuban-Americans and compose a small but inordinately significant swing constituency in a swing state in the 2020 elections. What incentive is there for a party leader like Obama to alienate them and their campaign donations, instead of merely going along with the story "everybody knows"?
People actually care about FoPo in South Florida
Groppe 2019 (Maureen Groppe, 2-1-2019, "Trump's Venezuela policy is also good 2020 politics in key state of Florida," Knoxville News Sentinel, https://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/02/01/trump-venezuela-policy-also-good-2020-politics-key-state-florida-maduro-guaido/2730779002/ DoA 12/15/19) JJ
“These are all linked and so for the administration to act tough and talk tough (on Venezuela) is popular in South Florida,” said Mora, who served as deputy assistant defense secretary for the Western Hemisphere during the Obama administration. “And South Florida is one of the few areas or regions of the country in which foreign policy is a domestic political factor in how people vote.” So it's no wonder Pence will be in Miami on Friday, meeting with members of the Venezuelan exile community at Iglesia Doral Jesus Worship Center, along with Carlos Vecchio the Venezuelan diplomat representing Guaido in the U.S. | 904,301 |
365,213 | 379,178 | Blake Disclosure Standards | The Blake debate team believes that disclosure serves important educational and competitive goals. We believe that the public forum community is moving in a positive direction and we will support that movement. We will will attempt to disclosure our pro and con arguments at the end of each tournament day on this wiki. After we have run a contention level argument we will disclose that verbally if the other team will reciprocate prior to the round. We do think that the wiki is important to do at the end of the tournament day but realize that during the middle of rounds during a tournament day we may not have time so we will verbally disclose. As we run new contentions, new links or new impacts we will then disclose them on the wiki. Please do not look at our wiki information unless you plan to participate and also use the wiki. | 904,217 |
365,214 | 379,231 | April - Georgetown Neg 20 | We negate.
Contention one is the power vacuum
Iran has hegemonic and imperial ambitions and would be emboldened if the US pulls out
Cropsey and Roughead 19 (Seth Cropsey, Gary Roughead, senior fellow at Hudson Institute and former deputy undersecretary of the U.S. Navy and Robert and Mary Oster distinguished military fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and former U.S. chief of naval operations 10-31-2019, "A U.S. Withdrawal Will Cause a Power Struggle in the Middle East," Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/17/us-withdrawal-power-struggle-middle-east-china-russia-iran/ DOA 4/4/20) MDS
The Ottoman Empire was the last …… wear down Saudi and Israeli strength.
They continue
Cropsey and Roughead 19 (Seth Cropsey, Gary Roughead, senior fellow at Hudson Institute and former deputy undersecretary of the U.S. Navy and Robert and Mary Oster distinguished military fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and former U.S. chief of naval operations 10-31-2019, "A U.S. Withdrawal Will Cause a Power Struggle in the Middle East," Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/17/us-withdrawal-power-struggle-middle-east-china-russia-iran/ DOA 4/4/20) MDS
Israel and Saudi Arabia are …… Arabia operate on the defensive.
War breaks out as countries clash to fill the power vaccum that the US leaves behind
Cropsey and Roughead 19 (Seth Cropsey, Gary Roughead, senior fellow at Hudson Institute and former deputy undersecretary of the U.S. Navy and Robert and Mary Oster distinguished military fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and former U.S. chief of naval operations 10-31-2019, "A U.S. Withdrawal Will Cause a Power Struggle in the Middle East," Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/17/us-withdrawal-power-struggle-middle-east-china-russia-iran/ DOA 4/4/20) MDS
The unique mix of political …… the United States would win a future conflict with China.”
Contention two is Saudi Arabia
Subpoint A is a Saudi Civil War
Losing security commitments would be a political disaster for the Saudi Royal family
Luck 2018 finds (Taylor Luck, correspondent for the Washington Post and Christian Science Monitor. November 28, 2018. The Christian Science Monitor. “As US sours on young prince, old Saudi succession pot is stirred. Too late?” https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2018/1128/As-US-sours-on-young-prince-old-Saudi-succession-pot-is-stirred.-Too-late. DOA: February 3, 2019.) ALP
Indeed, two days of mass protests in ……. have fallen on deaf ears, Saudi sources say.
The situation is ripe for conflict with many powerful actors in Saudi Arabia:
Luck furthers (Taylor Luck, correspondent for the Washington Post and Christian Science Monitor. November 28, 2018. The Christian Science Monitor. “As US sours on young prince, old Saudi succession pot is stirred. Too late?” https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2018/1128/As-US-sours-on-young-prince-old-Saudi-succession-pot-is-stirred.-Too-late. DOA: February 3, 2019.) ALP
Yet the prince has made few allies …… the heir presumptive, not heir apparent.”
A succession battle leads to a civil war
Doran and Badran 2018 conclude (Michael Doran, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, and Tony Badran, research fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. November 21, 2018. The New York Times. “Trump Is Crude. But He’s Right About Saudi Arabia,” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/21/opinion/trump-saudi-arabia-khashoggi.html. DOA: January 7, 2018.) ALP
In all likelihood, sanctions …… become another base, like Lebanon, for Iran
Subpoint B is Nuclearization
Knights writes in 2018
(Michael Knights, senior fellow of The Washington Institute, specializing in the military and security affairs of Iraq, Iran, and the Persian Gulf states. “U.S.-Saudi Security Cooperation (Part 1): Conditioning Arms Sales to Build Leverage.” November 5, 2018. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/u.s.-saudi-security-cooperation-part-1-conditioning-arms-sales-to-build-lev. DOA: 1/17/2019) DE
The U.S.-Saudi strategic …… defense industry and general economy.
Troop pullout substantially damages our security commitments, Saab 18 confirms(Bilal Saab, Senior Fellow and Director of the defense and security program at the Middle East Institute and Adjunct Assistant Professor at Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program, 22 Aug 2018, “Relocating the Fifth Fleet?”, https://www.the-american-interest.com/2018/08/22/relocating-the-fifth-fleet/ DOA 3/12/20)KJR
Indeed, it’s impossible to overstate how ……. security relationship with Washington.
Significantly decreasing security commitments with Saudi Arabia could cause them to proliferate
Brown 2017 (J. Wellington Brown, Major and intelligence offer at the USAF. “INDISPENSABLE NATION: US SECURITY GUARANTEES AND NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION” https://www.hsdl.org/?viewanddid=813351 2017. DoA April 1, 2020) JJ
US extended deterrence undergirds …… to prevent forward proliferation movement.
The impact is war
The Senate committee on foreign relations finds in 08 (COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS UNITED STATES SENATE, February 2008, “CHAIN REACTION: AVOIDING A NUCLEAR ARMS RACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST” https://fas.org/irp/congress/2008_rpt/chain.pdf DOA 2/19/19) MDS
Of any Middle Eastern state, Saudi …… between Arab States and Israel. | 904,280 |
365,215 | 378,970 | Drones | Jonathan Marcus, 9-17-2019, "Who's using armed drones in the Middle East?," BBC News, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49718828, accessed 4-18-2020, AZ, JR
Who has what?
AND
Iraq and Syria.
Mclearly, xx-xx-xxxx, "," No Publication, https://www.law.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/microsites/human-rights-institute/files/The20Civilian20Impact20of20Drones.pdf, accessed 4-18-2020, AZ, JR
US estimates of
AND
in subsequent strikes.
Washington Times Http, 1-31-2010, "Obama-led drone strikes kill innocents 90 of the time: report," Washington Times, https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/oct/15/90-of-people-killed-by-us-drone-strikes-in-afghani/, accessed 4-18-2020, AZ, JR
“This outrageous explosion
AND
regardless of status.
Zenko, xx-xx-xxxx, "Drones Kill More Civilians than Manned Aircraft Do. That’s Because of How We Use Them. – Duck of Minerva," No Publication, https://duckofminerva.com/2016/05/28853.html, accessed 4-18-2020, AZ, JR
According to the
AND
by the CIA.
U.S. Department of Defense, 6-30-2017, "Special Report: Operation Inherent Resolve," https://dod.defense.gov/OIR/, accessed 4-18-2020, AZ, JR
Airstrike Updates As
and
days of operations.
Badakhshan, Woods , 10-7-2001, "Interview with journalist Chris Woods on drone warfare: "It's not risk-free war, it's displaced war"," Qantara.de - Dialogue with the Islamic World, https://en.qantara.de/content/interview-with-journalist-chris-woods-on-drone-warfare-its-not-risk-free-war-its-displaced, accessed 4-18-2020, AZ, JR
You visited places
AND
and British citizens.
Rosa Brooks, 4-16-2020, "What's Not Wrong With Drones?," Foreign Policy, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:uhBH8RBkcAgJ:https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/09/05/whats-not-wrong-with-drones/andhl=enandgl=usandstrip=1andvwsrc=0, accessed 4-18-2020, AZ, JR
That means somewhere
AND
airstrikes in Afghanistan.
Storia, OMICS International, 8-17-2018, "Internally Displaced Persons: Impacts of the US Drone Strikes and Operation Zarb-I-Azb in FATA," https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/internally-displaced-persons-impacts-of-the-us-drone-strikes-and-operation-zarbiazb-in-fata-2169-0170-1000246-105200.html, accessed 4-18-2020, AZ, JR
Therefore, in retaliation
AND
form the militants 8. | 903,907 |
365,216 | 379,048 | 1 - Septober Bellaire Nato Tariffs Neg | Cavanna ‘17// the BRI poses a challenge to US hegemony
Thomas P. Cavanna, The Diplomat, 4-28-2017, "What Does China’s Belt and Road Initiative Mean for US Grand Strategy?," Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2018/06/what-does-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-mean-for-us-grand-strategy/, accessed 9-11-2019 //TP
The United States’ response to a rising China has largely focused on bolstering military capabilities, doctrines, and partnerships in the Asia-Pacific (or, more recently, the Indo-Pacific). This approach misconstrues the problem: it overstates the security threat and understates (or ignores) the economic challenge. To maintain its dominant position globally in the long-term, the United States must reckon with the ambitious geoeconomic endeavor Beijing has launched to project strategic influence across the Eurasian continent, which hosts most of the world’s economic centers and natural resources. The nascent Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) illustrates the transformative geopolitical implications of China’s rise. Despite its changing contours and the fact that it partly recycles preexisting plans, this series of major infrastructure and development projects designed to connect Eurasian regions together is a coherent enterprise of unprecedented scale: $4 trillion of promised investments in 65 countries representing 70 percent of the world’s population, 55 percent of its GNP, and 75 percent of its energy reserves. The BRI aims to stabilize China’s western peripheries, rekindle its economy, propel non-Western international economic institutions, gain influence in other countries, and diversify trade suppliers/routes while circumventing the U.S. pivot to Asia. Of course, the BRI’s prospects of success are subject to many unknowns, including the possibility of foreign resistance, China’s domestic economic travails, political turbulence, aging population, and environmental problems. On the other hand, the U.S. still possesses enormous assets to maintain its predominance, including military primacy, multiple alliances, powerful Western-led international organizations, and an unmatched soft power. Yet over time the BRI could threaten the very foundations of Washington’s post-WWII hegemony. A similar phenomenon is visible in Europe. For all of the United States’ efforts NATO’s post-Cold War expansion to former countries of the Soviet bloc and the launching of the global war on terror did not substitute for the foundational Soviet security threat that once undergirded the transatlantic alliance. The European states’ reluctance to increase military budgets and to participate in misguided U.S.-led interventions caused tensions, especially following the invasion of Iraq. Meanwhile China made important strides. Its regional trade and investments skyrocketed. Beijing acquired strategic assets to amass local advanced technologies and know-how, using Europe’s economic distress in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the EU’s political divisions and lack of an investment vetting process, and the mesmerizing appeal of China’s national market. Chinese leaders use their growing geoeconomic leverage to discipline their new partners and cultivate local proxies. The United States has tried to counter these efforts, as illustrated by the unsuccessful negotiation of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and continuous attempts to harness European militaries and defense industries to U.S. strategic goals. Yet Beijing’s rise has started to corrode the depth and scope of transatlantic relations. Despite frustrations with its economic practices, European countries have been willing to develop bilateral ties further and further. Moreover, they have only very timidly endorsed the U.S. position that China’s growing assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific poses a major threat to the international order. Trump’s rejection of the Iran nuclear deal, economic multilateralism, and the Paris climate agreement make things worse, but the problems are deeper.
Barkin ‘19// hardline EU stance is holding together US-EU alliance, and US hegemony competition with China hinges on “what happens in Europe”
Noah Barkin, 6-4-2019, "The U.S. Is Losing Europe in Its Battle With China," Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/united-states-needs-europe-against-china/590887/, accessed 9-11-2019 //TP
At the meeting in Washington, D.C., they pressed their allies to sign on to a joint statement condemning the Chinese plan. But it soon became clear that neither the Europeans nor a small group of other countries from Asia and Latin America were ready to fall in line. “No one was willing to go along with it,” one European diplomat familiar with the details of the meeting, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations, told me. “We may agree that China is a strategic threat, but you can’t just put them in a corner.” For the Europeans, the meeting at the State Department was another sign of what they see as the White House’s misguided zero-sum approach to dealing with China, and its mistaken belief that it can employ an à la carte approach with its partners, denouncing them publicly on some issues while expecting cooperation on others. For the Americans, the talks were the latest sign of Europe’s reluctance to stand up to China. “Europe,” one person close to the Trump administration who declined to be named told me, “is almost on a different planet.” After two years of escalating tensions between the United States and Europe over issues ranging from trade and Iran to defense spending and Russian gas pipelines, China should be the issue that unites them two sides, or at least eases some of the transatlantic strain. The European Union—with Germany and France leading the way—has adopted a much tougher stance on China over the past year, introducing new rules allowing for closer scrutiny of Chinese investments in European countries, exploring changes to the EU’s industrial, competition, and procurement policies to ensure Beijing is not unfairly advantaged, and, after years of avoiding clashes with Beijing, declaring China a “strategic rival.” This shift mirrors the harder line adopted by Washington under President Donald Trump, who has dialed up his two-year confrontation with Beijing several notches over the past month by raising tariffs on Chinese goods and putting the Chinese telecommunications group Huawei and scores of its affiliates on an export blacklist that could severely restrict their access to vital U.S. technology. But conversations I had with dozens of officials on both sides of the Atlantic—many of whom requested anonymity to talk about on diplomaticcy and intelligence issues—suggest that instead of coming together, Europe and the U.S. might be in the early stages of a damaging divergence on the China challenge. Trump’s latest moves, which raise the specter of a prolonged economic Cold War between Washington and Beijing, are likely to deepen the divide, taking the U.S. down a path that is unpalatable for even the hardest of European hard-liners. “If you listen to the people in the Trump administration, who view China as an existential threat, they are not in a place most Europeans can get to,” says Evan Feigenbaum, who held senior Asia-focused roles in the State Department during George W. Bush’s presidency and is now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The dissonance raises the prospect of a Western split on what both sides agree is likely to be the biggest geopolitical challenge of the 21st century—responding to the rise of an authoritarian China. A series of meetings in recent months, and the disparate ways in which they were interpreted by either side, illustrate the widening chasm. The European diplomat who discussed the April meeting likened Washington’s uncompromising stance on Belt and Road to its position on the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) a few years prior. Back then, the United States, under President Barack Obama, failed to convince allies to join a boycott of the new China-led development bank, leaving the Americans embarrassed and isolated. U.S. officials, by contrast, point to talks months before the meeting in Foggy Bottom, when Washington was pushing for a joint declaration denouncing human-rights abuses in Xinjiang, the western Chinese region where more than a million members of the Muslim minority have been detained in reeducation camps. That effort was also abandoned after what U.S. officials described as an exasperating back-and-forth with the European Union and individual member states. Among the American officials I spoke with, there was an air of what felt like panic—over what they saw as the global spread of Chinese influence through Xi’s Belt and Road initiative, the lack of an American alternative to Huawei, and the persistent failure of the World Trade Organization to tackle China’s unfair trade practices. One senior administration official likened discussions of China policy to the period after the 9/11 attacks. Inevitably, this person said, there will be an “overreaction” from Washington, with “collateral damage” for other countries, before U.S. policy settles down. In Brussels, senior officials are comparing the Trump administration’s China policy to Brexit. Both, they say, are based on the deluded notion that a fading great power can reverse the course of history and return to its glorious past. The irony is that senior U.S. administration officials acknowledge in private that American success in its competition with China might ultimately hinge on what happens in Europe. Yet many U.S. officials have no patience, at least in the highest ranks of the Trump administration, when it comes to working with European allies. Nor do they have much appreciation for the steps Europe has taken over the past year to push back against China. Several U.S. officials described the EU’s recent measures as baby steps that fall far short of what is needed. “The Americans are out to beat, contain, confront China,” a senior EU official who asked not to be identified told me. “They have a much more belligerent attitude. We believe they will waste a lot of energy and not be successful.” This does not mean that transatlantic channels of communication on China have broken down. A group of hawkish pragmatists including Matt Pottinger, who oversees Asia policy at the National Security Council, and Randall Schriver, a senior Pentagon official, have been trying to reach out to Europe for months, U.S. and European officials confirm. Last year, discussions focused on measures to protect against Chinese acquisitions. More recently, they have shifted to talks on next-generation 5G mobile networks, as well as joint responses to Belt and Road, an issue about which Washington and Brussels agreed last month to hold quarterly coordination meetings, according to EU officials. And last month, an American delegation traveled to Berlin for talks with German officials on China as part of a biannual get-together that began under the Obama administration and has continued, without a hitch, under Trump. Other changes are under way too: Last year, according to U.S. and European officials, the State Department appointed China point people in many of their European embassies, with officials estimating that roughly 150 U.S. diplomats on both sides of the Atlantic now spend at least part of their time focusing on China in Europe; at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Washington in late March, China was on the agenda for the first time; and Belt and Road could be a discussion point when France hosts a G7 summit in Biarritz in August, European officials have suggested.
Amaro ‘19// EU US trade war won't happen now because it's unpopular- the reason it's unpopular is because Europe is viewed as an ally
Silvia Amaro, 04-16-2019, “A trade war between the US and Europe is unlikely to happen. Here’s why,” CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/16/analysts-say-why-a-us-eu-trade-war-is-unlikely-to-happen.html
Trump has challenged China over trade since taking power as well, imposing increasing rounds of tariffs on the country. At the moment, however, media reports and comments from the U.S. and Chinese administrations suggest they could be close to a trade agreement. According to Schmieding, a deal between Beijing and Washington would make an agreement with Brussels even more likely. “After all, the EU is no geostrategic rival of the U.S.,” he said. Both analysts are also confident that the U.S. and Europe will avoid a trade war because political support in the United States for a trade war with the EU is much weaker than backing for a tough stance on China.
Trigkas ‘18// if China-EU make a bilateral investment deal the US will launch a trade war against the EU
Vasilis Trigkas, July 6, 2018, "Nato, China summits a chance for Europe to assert itself," South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2153948/nato-and-china-summits-give-europe-chance, accessed 9-11-2019 //TP
In Beijing, EU leaders may have a seemingly easier task negotiating with the Chinese on trade but caution is always a wise counsellor. According to reports from the meeting of the vice-president of the European Commission, Jyrki Katainen, and Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He in June, the two sides are ready to present their detailed market access conditions by mid-July and reboot the dormant discussions on a bilateral investment treaty. If negotiations accelerate and China and the EU reach a final accord by the end of the year or early 2019, this would complicate US efforts to rebalance its economic relations with China. It could push trigger-happy Trump to unleash tariffs against European exporters at a moment when the EU has just found its economic pace. Any benefits from a bilateral investment treaty with China may be undone by a full-scale transatlantic trade war and an utterly divided West.
Bown ‘19// auto tariffs from the US would definitively cause a European retaliation
More From, 6-26-2019, "Transatlantic Policy Impacts of the US-EU Trade Conflict," PIIE, https://www.piie.com/commentary/testimonies/transatlantic-policy-impacts-us-eu-trade-conflict
Three reasons demonstrate why imposing trade restrictions on European automobiles and parts would disrupt the American economy. First, American consumers would be hit by price hikes. Fiats, Volkswagens, and Volvos, among other brands, would become more expensive. The reduced competition would inevitably raise prices of all cars, regardless of the make and model. Second, the American manufacturing base would lose access to imported auto parts it needs to produce cars for both domestic consumption and export. Imported parts are vital for American-based auto plants to keep costs low for high-quality cars made in states like Alabama, Tennessee, and South Carolina. The facilities in these and other states make some of America's most successful exports. Restricting trade in parts would hurt these factories and their workers. Third, Europe will retaliate. The European Union has announced it would impose counter tariffs on US exports—a credible threat because it did so last year when President Trump imposed tariffs on their exports of steel and aluminum, also under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.
Ivana ‘18//EU retaliation in tariffs
Kottasová, Ivana. “EU Warns Trump’s Car Tariffs Threaten $300 Billion of US Exports.” CNNMoney, 2 July 2018, money.cnn.com/2018/07/02/news/economy/car-tariffs-europe-warning/index.html. Accessed 13 Sept. 2019.
Nearly $300 billion of US exports could be hit by retaliatory tariffs if the Trump administration decides to penalize automobile imports from around the world, the European Union says.The stark warning was included in the European Commission's written response to the Trump administration's investigation into imports of cars and car parts. The comments were sent to the US Department of Commerce on Friday and published on Monday.The Commission said global retaliation against US tariffs on auto imports would have a much bigger impact on the American economy than the backlash provoked by the Trump administration's steel and aluminum tariffs this year.It estimated that $294 billion, or around 19 of total US exports last year, could be affected. President Donald Trump has threatened to place a 20 tariff on all European cars coming to the United States if the European Union doesn't remove its own trade barriers.
Heeb, Gina. “Trump's proposed car tariffs could trigger a global growth recession, BAML says.” Markets Insider. 2/21/19//SSK
While that could benefit some American automakers and reduce bilateral trade deficits, it would also risk adding thousands of dollars to the price of vehicles, and raises the threat of retaliatory duties that could worsen global trade tensions. "In a worst case scenario, fullblown titfortat auto tariffs could trigger a global recession," analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a research note out this week, adding they would expect growth in the world economy to fall nearly a percentage point to 1.2. By increasing the price of vehicles and imported materials, they could threaten jobs, consumer spending, and investment. The analysts estimated that they would add $2,000 to $7,000 to price tags of both imported and American-made vehicles, posing even greater risks than the global trade tensions that emerged last year.
Harry Bradford, 4-5-2013, "Three Times The Population Of The U.S. Is At Risk Of Falling Into Poverty," HuffPost, span class="skimlinks-unlinked"https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420/span
Hundreds of millions of people worldwide are on the brink of poverty. A recent study by the International Monetary Fund warns that as many as 900 million people could fall back into poverty in the event of an economic shock like the Great Recession. That figure is three times the size of the U.S. population. According to the World Bank, 1.2 billion people are currently living on less than $1.25 a day. While the report acknowledges that progress has been to made to reduce global poverty and strengthen the world economy following the financial crisis, the world is still in a vulnerable situation. Global unemployment, for example, is the highest it’s been in two decades with 40 percent of the world’s population out of work, according to the report. And things could get much worse in the event of a macroeconomic shock, of which the Europe and U.S. are dangerously close. The recent bailout of Cyprus threw the eurozone into chaos, igniting fears that the situation could lead to the next financial crisis. Here in the U.S., a series of automatic spending cuts know as the sequester could cost the economy hundreds of thousands of jobs. The cuts have already threatened the stability of safety nets designed to aid the nation’s poorest.. | 904,005 |
365,217 | 379,033 | 1 - Septober Grapevine disclosure interp | A. Interpretation: Debaters with computers competing at TOC-bidding tournaments must disclose all previously read positions and off-case arguments via tag lines and citations of evidence on the 2019-2020 NDCA PF Wiki, at least 15 minutes before round. The citation must include author names, dates, publishers, a link to the article and full text of card. For theory, the entirety of the shell, you must disclose all interps, standard taglines and summaries, voters, judge action and implications, as well as RVI and competing interp positions. | 903,975 |
365,218 | 379,053 | 2 - Nocember Glenbrooks Small Business Iran Neg | ====Contention One – Corrupting Connectivity====
====Glenny 11 - Stuxnet was the starting gun for the cyber arms race====
Misha Glenny (). 10-12-2011. "The Cyber Arms Race Has Begun." Nation. https://www.thenation.com/article/cyber-arms-race-has-begun/. Accessed 11-7-2019. //TP
The surfacing of the Stuxnet virus was probably the most disturbing development of the past
AND
Stuxnet provides proof that cannot be refuted: the global cybergame has begun.
====Rovner 17 - Stuxnet caused states to invest in offensive cyber weapons====
Joshua Rovner, (). 8-1-2017. "Does the Internet Need a Hegemon?." OUP Academic. https://academic.oup.com/jogss/article/2/3/184/4082200. Accessed 11-7-2019. //TP
Three broad conclusions flow from this analysis. First, Stuxnet did not change the
AND
and assert itself as an alternative to the US-led liberal order.
====Valeriano 19 - US creating an environment for miscalculation and inadvertent escalation that risks a "forever cyber war"====
Brandon Valeriano (). 1-15-2019. "The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint." Cato Institute. https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/myth-cyber-offense-case-restraint. Accessed 11-6-2019. //TP
More worryingly, with a more offensive posture, it will be increasingly difficult for
AND
it implies all cyber operations should be interpreted as escalatory by adversaries.57
====Raston 19 - US has normalized offensive cyber policy and weapons proliferation====
Dina Temple-Raston (). 9-26-2019. "How The U.S. Hacked ISIS." NPR.org. https://www.npr.org/2019/09/26/763545811/how-the-u-s-hacked-isis. Accessed 11-7-2019. //TP
For most of the Obama administration, officials refused to talk about cyberattacks. Now
AND
what we're talking about is something that is more active," he said.
**====CFR 17 – OCOs are stolen and reverse engineered====**
The Council on Foreign Relations ’17 finds that
"This situation whereby technologically-advanced countries are investing efforts in developing offensive cyber
AND
malware to cause global damage and possibly target the cyber weapons’ original designers."
====Masnick 13 - OCOs deliberately weakens the internet guaranteeing successful attacks ====
Masnick 13 ~~Mike, founder and CEO of Floor64 and editor of the Techdirt blog, Oct 7th 2013, "National Insecurity: How The NSA Has Put The Internet And Our Security At Risk," Techdirt, https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20131005/02231624762/national-insecurity-how-nsa-has-put-internet-our-security-risk.shtml~~
But, really, the issue is that the NSA's actions aren't actually helping national
AND
NSA which, in turn, makes us all a lot less secure.
====Nolan 15 – cyber attacks increasing 43 of firms experienced attacks====
Cybersecurity and Information Sharing: Legal Challenges and Solutions Andrew Nolan Legislative Attorney March 16, 2015, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/intel/R43941.pdf
The high profile cyberattacks of 2014 and early 2015 appear to be indicative of a
AND
the words of one prominent cybersecurity expert–"vulnerabilities of staggering proportions."26
====Salient 18 – cyber and malware attacks skyrocketing====
A Mind-Bending,7/30/18, andquot;New Report Shows 32 Percent Increase In Cyber Attacks,andquot; Salient IT, https://salientit.com/new-report-shows-32-percent-increase-in-cyber-attacks/
Positive Technologies has just released a new report that paints a grim picture for IT
AND
top five (8 percent, 7 percent, and 5 percent, respectively
====Warner 19 - Small business attacks are rapidly increasing and bankrupt the businesses they target.====
Warner 19
**James Warner, 11-11-2019, "Critical Cybersecurity Measures for Small Businesses", Business, https://www.business.com/articles/cybersecurity-measures-for-small-businesses/**
Data theft is still a major headache though massive strides are being made to curb
AND
you through the best ways of locking cyber attackers out of your business.
====Steinberg 19 – cyber attacks cost businesses 200k, 43 of attacks aimed at small businesses====
Scott Steinberg, Special To Cnbc, xx-xx-xxxx, "Cyberattacks now cost companies $200,000 on average, putting many out of business," CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/13/cyberattacks-cost-small-companies-200k-putting-many-out-of-business.html
In an age of ongoing digital transformation, cybercrime has quickly become today’s fastest-
AND
high- and low-tech strategies for combating cyber threats, including:
====SBA 19 – SME key to US econ, 44 of econ activity====
Office Of, 1-30-2019, "Small Businesses Generate 44 Percent of U.S. Economic Activity," SBA's Office of Advocacy, https://advocacy.sba.gov/2019/01/30/small-businesses-generate-44-percent-of-u-s-economic-activity/
Small businesses are the lifeblood of the U.S. economy: they create
AND
and retail trade; and (3) the manufacturing and mining sector.
====Smith 19 – SME hacks threaten productivity and recession====
Devin Smith*, 11-14-2019, "Small Business Cyberattacks Could Prompt The Next Recession – OpEd," Eurasia Review, https://www.eurasiareview.com/02082019-small-businesses-cyberattacks-could-prompt-the-next-recession-oped/
Yes, the threshold of which small businesses are falling victim to cyberattacks is at
AND
as they are not alone, the whole economy is dependent on them.
====Hultquist 19 – cyber attacks targeting financial sector====
Joseph Marks, xx-xx-xxxx, "Analysis," Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-cybersecurity-202/2019/06/24/the-cybersecurity-202-u-s-businesses-are-preparing-for-iranian-hacks-after-american-cyber-attack/5d1007a81ad2e552a21d507f/
U.S. businesses should get ready for a barrage of digital retaliation from
AND
service attacks that render websites and digital tools unusable, Hultquist told me.
====Mee 18 – Cyber attacks most likely cause of global recession====
Paul Mee, Til Schuermann, 9-14-2018, "How a Cyber Attack Could Cause the Next Financial Crisis," Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2018/09/how-a-cyber-attack-could-cause-the-next-financial-crisis
Ever since the forced bankruptcy of the investment bank Lehman Brothers triggered the financial crisis
AND
other well-known internet services as amateurs joined in for mischief purposes.
====Arora – US growth drives global growth====
The Impact of U.S. Economic Growth on the Rest of the World: How Much Does It Matter? Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis, Journal of Economic Integration, https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/23000624.pdf?refreqid=excelsior3A6a3d2a1d37c3bb276b2669fcaa1fc88a
The results suggest a positive and statistically significant impact of U.S. growth
AND
that for U.S. growth, and is not statistically significant.
====World Bank 18 – 736 million still live in extreme poverty, need to increase development====
2030 And, 9-19-2018, "Decline of Global Extreme Poverty Continues but Has Slowed: World Bank," World Bank, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank
Fewer people are living in extreme poverty around the world, but the decline in
AND
, but conflict in Syria and Yemen raised its poverty rate in 2015.
====Contention Two – Iranian Escalation====
**====Futter 16 – US OCOs threaten rivals and encourage nuclearization====**
Futter 16, 4-15-2019, "The Dangers of Using Cyberattacks to Counter Nuclear Threats," No Publication, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2016-07/features/dangers-using-cyberattacks-counter-nuclear-threats~~#note09
Although the budding U.S. concept of full-spectrum missile defense has
AND
to a cyberattack that could directly or indirectly lead to a launch.10
====Glaser 17 – Stuxnet increased Iran’s uranium enrichment tenfold====
John Glaser, 8-21-2017, "Cyberwar on Iran Won't Work. Here's Why.," Cato Institute, https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/cyberwar-iran-wont-work-heres-why
Initial estimates exaggerated the damage caused by Stuxnet, claiming it set back the Iranian
AND
that the coercive approach would not work in the absence of diplomatic concessions.
====Mahony 13 – Stuxnet revamped and greatly improved Iran’s nuclear program====
Jennifer O'Mahony, 5-23-2013, "IAEA confirms: Iran expanding uranium enrichment program," Telegraph.co.uk, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/10076194/IAEA-confirms-Iran-expanding-uranium-enrichment-program.html
In a report obtained by The Associated Press, the International Atomic Energy Agency (
AND
tech centrifuges would phase out its older-generation enriching machines at Natanz.
====Blaustein 13 – Stuxnet skyrocketed Iran nuclearization====
Michael Blaustein, 5-16-2013, "Stuxnet virus might have improved Iran’s nuclear capabilities: report," New York Post, https://nypost.com/2013/05/16/stuxnet-virus-might-have-improved-irans-nuclear-capabilities-report/
While politicians in the United States and Israel have claimed that Stuxnet was a major
AND
build a bomb or increase its nuclear-weapons potential," Barzashka warns.
====Vaez 13 – Iran able to reduce the time to acquire nuclear uranium by 90====
Ali Vaez, Karim Sadjadpour, 4-2-2013, "Iran’s Nuclear Odyssey: Costs and Risks," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, https://carnegieendowment.org/2013/04/02/iran-s-nuclear-odyssey-costs-and-risks-pub-51346
In February 2013, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimated that Iran’s
AND
its Natanz enrichment facility, which would further upgrade its enrichment capacity.2
====Gridneff 19 – Iran can acquire nukes within a year====
Matina Stevis-Gridneff, 7-15-2019, "E.U. Ministers, Scrambling to Save Iran Nuclear Deal, Play Down Breaches," New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/15/world/europe/iran-eu-nuclear-deal.html //AM
"The European Union’s response to Iranian violations reminds me of the European appeasement of
AND
Iran "even though that country had implemented its commitments under the agreement."
====Horschig 19 – Iran nuclearization triggers middle east war====
Doreen Horschig, 6-20-2019, "Israel could strike first as tensions with Iran flare," Conversation, https://theconversation.com/israel-could-strike-first-as-tensions-with-iran-flare-119146
"Israel will not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons," said Israeli Prime Minister
AND
is any guide, Israel may strike Iran while the world quietly watches.
====Meyerson 19 - War with Iran kills 1.5 million people ====
Meyerson 19
**Sam Meyerson, 10-18-2019, "President Trump’s Iran Policy: The Specter of a Needless War," Harvard Politics, https://harvardpolitics.com/world/iran-war/**
Civilian Deaths First and most importantly, a war with Iran would likely lead to
AND
American defense officials pause as they consider future engagement with the Iranian government.
====Meyerson 19 - Proxy war leads to regional war====
Meyerson 19
**Sam Meyerson, 10-18-2019, "President Trump’s Iran Policy: The Specter of a Needless War," Harvard Politics, https://harvardpolitics.com/world/iran-war/**
Provoking a Regional War. Additionally, a U.S.–Iran war might
AND
Terror has cost the United States $5.9 trillion since 2001.
====Avery 13 – US Iran war goes nuclear, causes extinction====
**Avery, 13 **- John Avery received a B.Sc. in theoretical physics from MIT and an M.Sc. from the University of Chicago. He later studied theoretical chemistry at the University of London, and was awarded a Ph.D. there in 1965. He is now Lektor Emeritus, Associate Professor, at the Department of Chemistry, University of Copenhagen. Fellowships, memberships in societies: Since 1990 he has been the Contact Person in Denmark for Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs. In 1995, this group received the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts. He was the Member of the Danish Peace Commission of 1998. Technical Advisor, World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe (1988- 1997). Chairman of the Danish Peace Academy, April 2004 ("An Attack On Iran Could Escalate Into Global Nuclear War" Countercurrents, 11/6, https://www.countercurrents.org/avery061113.htm
Despite the willingness of Iran's new President, Hassan Rouhani to make all reasonable concessions
AND
and future of all the peoples of the world, US citizens included. | 904,010 |
365,219 | 379,052 | 2 - Nocember Glenbrooks Iran Neg | ====Contention One – Iranian Escalation====
====Turak 18 – Iran will only escalate through OCOs====
Natasha Turak, 07/30/18, "Direct warfare with the US is out of the question for Iran, analysts say — here’s why," CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/30/direct-warfare-with-the-us-is-out-of-the-question-for-iran-analysts.html
When Iran threatens war with the U.S., it’s not necessarily talking about
AND
in a position in which they would need to use their conventional capability."
====Cyber Escalation====
====Valeriano 19 - Trump policy shifts create an escalatory environment that risks war by provoking fear and overreactions====
Brandon Valeriano (). 1-15-2019. "The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint." Cato Institute. https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/myth-cyber-offense-case-restraint. Accessed 11-6-2019. //TP
New policy options proposed by Cyber Command and the Trump administration risk exacerbating fear in
AND
state’s strategically important networks pose serious risks and are therefore inherently threatening."54
====Valeriano 19 - Trump gave OCO control to the military with no checkbacks, represents a dynamic shift away from restraint====
Brandon Valeriano (). 1-15-2019. "The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint." Cato Institute. https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/myth-cyber-offense-case-restraint. Accessed 11-6-2019. //TP
Securing command of the commons in the face of increasing cyber operations by China and
AND
to retaliate." She added, "We don’t understand escalation in cyberspace."
====Groll 19 – Trump policy shifts lower the bar for engaging in warfare====
Groll, Foreign Policy, 2019
~~Elias Groll, a staff writer at Foreign Policy. "The U.S.-Iran Standoff Is Militarizing Cyberspace ", 9-27-2019, Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/27/the-u-s-iran-standoff-is-militarizing-cyberspace/~~
"With U.S. President Donald Trump considering ways to retaliate against Iran
AND
cyber consistently leads to the idea that it can be used any time."
====Gilchrist 19 – Escalating US-Iran cyber war increasingly equated to military conflict====
Karen Gilchrist, xx-xx-xxxx, "US-Iran cyber strike marks a military ‘game changer,’ says tech expert," CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/02/us-iran-cyber-strike-marks-a-military-game-changer-says-tech-expert.html
After the U.S. launched a cyber strike on Iran’s weapons systems last
AND
and the speed and the coverage" of such attacks will only grow.
====Jensen 19 - offensive postures will shift perceptions and reframe even minor intrusions as serious threats====
**Veleriano and Jensen ’19** Veleriano, Brandon (Donald Bren Chair of Armed Politics at Marine Corps University) and Jensen, Benjamin (associate professor at the Marine Corps University and a scholar-in-residence at American University's School of International Service). "The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint." Cato Institute, 15 January 2019, https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/myth-cyber-offense-case-restraint.
More worryingly, with a more offensive posture, it will be increasingly difficult for
AND
it implies all cyber operations should be interpreted as escalatory by adversaries.57
====Kennedy 19 – Iran ignores red lines, acts aggressively and unpredictably====
David Kennedy, 10-5-2019, "How Iran Would Wage Cyber War Against the United States," National Interest, a class="vglnk" href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-iran-would-wage-cyber-war-against-united-states-85841"
This means both sides are likely to engage in a more covert battle of wills
AND
more complicated attacks—particularly the infiltration of industrial control systems (ICS).
====Kennedy 19 – continued escalation justifies Iran to target critical infra, will escalate into conflict====
David Kennedy, 10-5-2019, "How Iran Would Wage Cyber War Against the United States," National Interest, a class="vglnk" href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-iran-would-wage-cyber-war-against-united-states-85841"
What Role Will Proxy Forces Play? There is no scenario in which Iran’s proxy
AND
to accidentally trigger a dire event that could have far-reaching consequences.
====Lawson 19 – Iran is actively retaliating by attacking critical infrastructure====
Sean Lawson, 10-23-2019, "What will be the effect of the latest US cyberattack on Iran?," Fifth Domain, https://www.fifthdomain.com/thought-leadership/2019/10/23/what-will-be-the-effect-of-the-latest-us-cyberattack-on-iran/
The United States launched a cyber operation against Iran in response to the September attacks
AND
spike in Iranian cyberattacks against U.S. government and critical infrastructure targets
====Van 19 – Escalating cyber war set the course for war====
Anya Van, 6-23-2019, "Trump called off a military strike against Iran. The US targeted its computer systems instead.," Vox, https://www.vox.com/2019/6/23/18714327/iran-us-donald-trump-cyberattack-drone-strike
Cyberattacks could mark a new front in escalating tensions with Iran. "This is
AND
still come, writing he stopped physical military action "at this time."
====Turak 19 – Escalation forces Iran and US to the brink====
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/iranian-attacks-on-us-interests-in-the-gulf-more-likely-than-ever.html
Iranian attacks on US interests in the Gulf more likely than ever after hostile tweets
AND
a miscalculation and a potentially uncontrolled escalation could bring them to the brink."
====Conventional Escalation====
====Jensen 19 – Recent OCOs undermine intel gathering====
Brandon Valeriano and Benjamin Jensen, CATO institute, January 15, 2019, The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint, https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/myth-cyber-offense-case-restraint, Brandon Valeriano is the Donald Bren Chair of Armed Politics at Marine Corps University. Benjamin Jensen is an associate professor at the Marine Corps University and a scholar-in-residence at American University's School of International Service.
~~While~~ Cyber operations rarely work in isolation, and when they do,
AND
rival states. The majority of cyber operations were limited disruptions and espionage.
====Arun 19 – OCOs making Iran paranoid, will move military and nuclear equipment offline====
Arun Vishwanath, Washington Post, The Internet is already being weaponized. The U.S. cyberattack on Iran won’t help, July 9^^th^^, 2019 https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/07/09/internet-is-already-being-weaponized-us-cyberattack-iran-wont-help/
After an incident like ~~Trump’s recent cyber attacks~~ this one is made public
AND
which could significantly jeopardize their safety and our ability to effectively monitor them.
====Ikenberry – Best explanation for war is misperception and misinformation====
Stephen Van, xx-xx-xxxx, "Causes of War: Power and the Roots of International Conflict," Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/1999-07-01/causes-war-power-and-roots-international-conflict
An important book on the roots of war, remarkable in its theoretical rigor and
AND
. Alas, Van Evera leaves unanswered how we can overcome this challenge.
====Jackson 09 – poor knowledge of rival intentions and capabilities makes war more probable====
No Author, xx-xx-xxxx, "," No Publication, https://web.stanford.edu/~~jacksonm/war-overview.pdf
Asymmetries of information can arise from a variety of sources. It could be an
AND
type of communication available,as Baliga and Sjöström (2009) show.
====West 19 – High risk of miscalc with Iran====
Alan West, 7-20-2019, "New PM, take note: the Iran crisis could escalate into war," Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/20/new-pm-take-note-iran-crisis-could-escalate-into-war //AM
But we should make it clear to the Iranians that, while up until now
AND
open-ended war with catastrophic consequences across the region and the globe.
====Nuclear Escalation====
**====Futter 16 – US OCOs threaten rivals and encourage nuclearization====**
Futter 16, 4-15-2019, "The Dangers of Using Cyberattacks to Counter Nuclear Threats," No Publication, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2016-07/features/dangers-using-cyberattacks-counter-nuclear-threats~~#note09
Although the budding U.S. concept of full-spectrum missile defense has
AND
to a cyberattack that could directly or indirectly lead to a launch.10
====Glaser 17 – Stuxnet increased Iran’s uranium enrichment tenfold====
John Glaser, 8-21-2017, "Cyberwar on Iran Won't Work. Here's Why.," Cato Institute, https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/cyberwar-iran-wont-work-heres-why
Initial estimates exaggerated the damage caused by Stuxnet, claiming it set back the Iranian
AND
that the coercive approach would not work in the absence of diplomatic concessions.
====Mahony 13 – Stuxnet revamped and greatly improved Iran’s nuclear program====
Jennifer O'Mahony, 5-23-2013, "IAEA confirms: Iran expanding uranium enrichment program," Telegraph.co.uk, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/10076194/IAEA-confirms-Iran-expanding-uranium-enrichment-program.html
In a report obtained by The Associated Press, the International Atomic Energy Agency (
AND
tech centrifuges would phase out its older-generation enriching machines at Natanz.
====Blaustein 13 – Stuxnet skyrocketed Iran nuclearization====
Michael Blaustein, 5-16-2013, "Stuxnet virus might have improved Iran’s nuclear capabilities: report," New York Post, https://nypost.com/2013/05/16/stuxnet-virus-might-have-improved-irans-nuclear-capabilities-report/
While politicians in the United States and Israel have claimed that Stuxnet was a major
AND
build a bomb or increase its nuclear-weapons potential," Barzashka warns.
====Vaez 13 – Iran able to reduce the time to acquire nuclear uranium by 90====
Ali Vaez, Karim Sadjadpour, 4-2-2013, "Iran’s Nuclear Odyssey: Costs and Risks," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, https://carnegieendowment.org/2013/04/02/iran-s-nuclear-odyssey-costs-and-risks-pub-51346
In February 2013, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimated that Iran’s
AND
its Natanz enrichment facility, which would further upgrade its enrichment capacity.2
====Gridneff 19 – Iran can acquire nukes within a year====
Matina Stevis-Gridneff, 7-15-2019, "E.U. Ministers, Scrambling to Save Iran Nuclear Deal, Play Down Breaches," New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/15/world/europe/iran-eu-nuclear-deal.html //AM
"The European Union’s response to Iranian violations reminds me of the European appeasement of
AND
Iran "even though that country had implemented its commitments under the agreement."
====Horschig 19 – Iran nuclearization triggers middle east war====
Doreen Horschig, 6-20-2019, "Israel could strike first as tensions with Iran flare," Conversation, https://theconversation.com/israel-could-strike-first-as-tensions-with-iran-flare-119146
"Israel will not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons," said Israeli Prime Minister
AND
is any guide, Israel may strike Iran while the world quietly watches.
====Impact is War====
====Meyerson 19 - War with Iran kills 1.5 million people ====
Meyerson 19
**Sam Meyerson, 10-18-2019, "President Trump’s Iran Policy: The Specter of a Needless War," Harvard Politics, https://harvardpolitics.com/world/iran-war/**
Civilian Deaths First and most importantly, a war with Iran would likely lead to
AND
American defense officials pause as they consider future engagement with the Iranian government.
====Meyerson 19 - Proxy war leads to regional war====
Meyerson 19
**Sam Meyerson, 10-18-2019, "President Trump’s Iran Policy: The Specter of a Needless War," Harvard Politics, https://harvardpolitics.com/world/iran-war/**
Provoking a Regional War. Additionally, a U.S.–Iran war might
AND
Terror has cost the United States $5.9 trillion since 2001.
====Avery 13 – US Iran war goes nuclear, causes extinction====
**Avery, 13 **- John Avery received a B.Sc. in theoretical physics from MIT and an M.Sc. from the University of Chicago. He later studied theoretical chemistry at the University of London, and was awarded a Ph.D. there in 1965. He is now Lektor Emeritus, Associate Professor, at the Department of Chemistry, University of Copenhagen. Fellowships, memberships in societies: Since 1990 he has been the Contact Person in Denmark for Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs. In 1995, this group received the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts. He was the Member of the Danish Peace Commission of 1998. Technical Advisor, World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe (1988- 1997). Chairman of the Danish Peace Academy, April 2004 ("An Attack On Iran Could Escalate Into Global Nuclear War" Countercurrents, 11/6, https://www.countercurrents.org/avery061113.htm
Despite the willingness of Iran's new President, Hassan Rouhani to make all reasonable concessions
AND
and future of all the peoples of the world, US citizens included. | 904,009 |
365,220 | 379,020 | 0 - Disclosure Tutorial | -
Open source located above under the classification of "FAQ" has a guide provided by the wiki themselves.
The link to the video is below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkG_BjxiftM
The link to download the tutorial doc is below:
http://static.squarespace.com/static/53416a18e4b0aa2aaadf85e4/534fdcb0e4b0aaf6bc85f4c2/534fdcaee4b0aaf6bc85f3cb/1379897971000/Caselist-Wiki-Quickstart-Guide-E28094-September-20131.docx?format=original | 903,954 |
365,221 | 379,023 | 2 - FEB NC 1 | =1NC=
==C1: Global Growth==
===Link – Stabilizers===
====Welfare programs act as automatic stabilizers that expand during times of recession ending the vicious degradation of human capital====
Spross 19
**Jeff Spross, 10-7-2019, "America needs to put recession-fighting on autopilot," The Week, https://theweek.com/articles/869684/america-needs-recessionfighting-autopilot**
Last Friday's disappointing jobs report … goes big as soon as it's needed.
====Automatic stabilizers are uniquely important in fighting this recession and futures ones due to structural constrains on the federal reserve====
Estep 19
**Sara Estep, Center for American Progress, "The Importance of Automatic Stabilizers in the Next Recession - Center for American Progress", 6/17/2019, https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2019/06/17/471120/importance-automatic-stabilizers-next-recession/**
Although the United States … effectively tied to economic indicators.
====Automatic stabilizers are also fundamental to further fiscal stimulus====
Estep 19
**Sara Estep and Olugbenga Ajilore and Michael Madowitz, 6-17-2019, "The Importance of Automatic Stabilizers in the Next Recession," Center for American Progress, https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2019/06/17/471120/importance-automatic-stabilizers-next-recession/**
A recession response should … the battle will be lost.
===MPX: Recession Severity===
====The fiscal response during the last recession reduced its length by half and prevented the loss of over 10 million jobs====
Blinder 15
**Alan S. Blinder and Mark Zandi, "The Financial Crisis: Lessons for the Next One", Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 10-15-2015, https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/the-financial-crisis-lessons-for-the-next-one, DOA-12-30-2018 **
The massive and multifaceted … 10 million more jobs
===Link – Immigration===
====Immigration is the most effective path to poverty reduction, but a UBI will force politicians to shut down immigration====
McArdle 14
**Megan McArdle, 4-18-2014, "How a basic income in the U.S. could increase global poverty," PBS, **https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/how-a-basic-income-in-the-u-s-could-increase-global-poverty** ~~AHS AK~~**
The greatest poverty reduction program … given out in their best interests.
====UBI even flips more hardline defenders of immigration into implementing reform====
Miller 19
John Miller, 10-2-2019, "Universal basic income is having a moment. Can advocates convince a skeptical public?," America Magazine, https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2019/10/02/universal-basic-income-having-moment-can-advocates-convince-skeptical ~~AHS AK~~
U.B.I. could also flood the … a cushion to try new things.
====Immigrants are the backbone of the US economy because they fill massive demographic labor shortfalls, stimulate consumer spending, and boosting the quality of the workforce====
Porter 17
**Eduardo Porter, 8-8-2017, "The Danger From Low-Skilled Immigrants: Not Having Them," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/08/business/economy/immigrants-skills-economy-jobs.html**
Let’s just say it plainly: The United States needs …" There will be an employment hole to fill.
====Cutting immigration even by half would cause recession - means we won’t even have to win the entire link to get the impact====
Long 17
**Heather Long, 8-2-2017, "It’s a Grave Mistake for Trump to Cut Legal Immigration in Half", Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/02/its-a-grave-mistake-for-trump-to-cut-legal-immigration-in-half/**
President Trump endorsed a steep … and for really high-skilled jobs.
===IMPACT: Recession===
====Despite powerful stimulus in 2008, global interconnectedness ensures that recessions go global and are devastating====
World Bank
World Bank, 11-18-2010, "New Study Reviews the World Bank Group’s Response to The Global Financial Crisis," http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2010/11/18/new-study-reviews-the-world-bank-groups-response-to-the-global-financial-crisis
Increased poverty resulting …continue to be of paramount importance. | 903,957 |
365,222 | 379,022 | 2- JAN NC 1 | ==C1: Political Pressure==
===Keeping sanctions forces Maduro to exit – 2 warrants===
===1 – Negotiations===
====Sanctions make resignation more attractive for Maduro and push him towards leaving office====
Rendon 19
**Moises Rendon, 9-3-2019, "Are Sanctions Working in Venezuela?," Center for Strategic and International Studies, https://www.csis.org/analysis/are-sanctions-working-venezuela**
There is significant ... a welcome alternative.
====Intensifying sanctions have cut loopholes and access to wealth for the Maduro regime. Increasing pressure on finances has undermined key military support and forced the brutal dictator to the table ====
Fedirka 19
**Allison Fedirka, 9-9-2019, "The New US Strategy to Remove Maduro in Venezuela," Geopolitical Futures, https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-new-us-strategy-to-remove-maduro-in-venezuela/**
After months of little ... itself a sign of progress.
====As of last week, Maduro announced new preparation for negotiations with stabilization in mind====
Binner 20
**Beyza Binnur Donmez, 1-2-2020, "Maduro says Venezuela ready for talks with US," No Publication, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/maduro-says-venezuela-ready-for-talks-with-us/1690317**
Venezuela's President Nicolas M ... the Trump government on the issue.
===2 – Military Support===
====Maduro relies on buying off the military to stay in power====
Schalk 19
**Jessica Van Der Schalk, 7-01-2019, "Why is Maduro still in power in Venezuela?," FreedomLab, **http://freedomlab.org/why-is-maduro-still-in-power-in-venezuela/
Venezuela is now plagued by ... control of the state.
====Sanctions have cut Maduro’s contribution to the military by HALF====
Ellis 19
**Evan Ellis, 2-7-2019, "Beginning the Endgame in Venezuela," Center for Strategic and International Studies, https://www.csis.org/analysis/beginning-endgame-venezuela**
Such international positions ... such as the "colectivos."
====Troops undergoing economic hardship are ready to flip and all the military needs is one general. Fortunately, a steady stream of mid-ranking officers have begun to defect. The longer Venezuela stays under sanctions the more likely a Maduro exit is====
Palmer 19
**Elizabeth Palmer, 2-6-2019. "Hunger pushing Maduro's troops to tipping point in Venezuela." CBS. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/venezuela-crisis-nicolas-maduros-military-national-guardsmen-troops-fed-up/. Accessed 1-6-2020. //TP**
Pictures broadcast by state ... they won't obey that order.
====Because of this pressure, Maduro is 80 likely to be out of office by 2020.====
VSU 20
Latin America Risk Report - 9 January 2020 Answering reader questions about Venezuela, Iran and regional protests. Boz. Venezuelan Stability Update. https://boz.substack.com/ ///ahsAK
In February 2019, Hxagon’s model showed ... by taking down leadership.
===MPX: Intervention===
====Sanctions are used as a peaceful alternative to intervention====
Turak 19
**Natasha Turak, 12-15-2019, "US isn’t weaponizing the dollar; sanctions are the alternative to war, Mnuchin says," CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/14/mnuchin-us-isnt-weaponizing-dollar-sanctions-are-alternative-to-war.html**
The Trump administration has ... to Iran have increased.
====Trump and his officials already support military intervention. Intervention fails and backfires as military intervention empirically causes civil war and allows for authoritarian scapegoating, thus solidifying the Maduro regime====
Rourke 19
**Lindsey Rourke, 1-30-2019, "U.S. Intervention Could Be Maduro's Lifeline," Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/01/30/u-s-intervention-could-be-maduros-lifeline/**
According to the Wall Street ... among Venezuelans wary of U.S. meddling.
A US intervention would cause domestic chaos with crime exploding, a refugee crisis, AND 400,000 troops engaging in conflict. The pure economic destruction nullifies the benefits of incoming reforms
Rourke 19
**Lindsey Rourke, 1-30-2019, "U.S. Intervention Could Be Maduro's Lifeline," Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/01/30/u-s-intervention-could-be-maduros-lifeline/**
a precision strike operation would ... extended military campaign | 903,956 |
365,223 | 379,011 | 0 - Disclosure Example | -
This AC surrounds the Yemen war and Saudi Arabian arms
OB: Peace Talks
- - If Saudi Arabia continues to have U.S arms backing them, they will continue the mass murder in Yemen.
Doug Bandow, 12-18-2018, "It's Time to End U.S. Support for the Saudi War on Yemen," Cato Institute, https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/its-time-end-us-support-saudi-war-yemen
The ongoing peace ... at the least cost.
C1: Yemen
- - Saudi intervention is humanitarian catastrophe. The Saudi coalition aided by U.S.-supplied weapons has bombed and killed thousands of civilians in Yemen.
William D. Hartung Is The Director Of The Arms and Security Project At The Center For International Policy. He Is The Author Of Prophets Of War, 9-19-2018, "Congress Can Help End the Suffering in Yemen," Common Dreams, https://www.commondreams.org/views/2018/09/19/congress-can-help-end-suffering-yemen
The Saudi intervention ... to act is now.
- - If the U.S stops selling F15 jets to the kingdom, Saudi Arabia’s air force will be grounded, thus completely stopping the bombing in Yemen.
Bruce Riedel, 10-10-2018, "After Khashoggi, US arms sales to the Saudis are essential leverage," Brookings Institute, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/10/10/after-khashoggi-us-arms-sales-to-the-saudis-are-essential-leverage/
In June 2017 ... clip his wings.
- - 17,000 people have died already in the Yemen war. Millions at risk of starvation caused by war
Global Conflict Tracker, x-xx-2018, "Global Conflict Tracker l Council on Foreign Relations," https://www.cfr.org/interactive/global-conflict-tracker/?marker=36andamp;category=us
Info-graphic | 903,947 |
365,224 | 379,073 | 2- NOVDEC 1NC 2 | ==C1: Iranian Disaster==
===Link – Conventional Escalation===
====Trump’s new cyber strategy is the groundwork of escalation====
Farrell 19
**Michael Farrell and Tim Starks and Gavin Bade, 7-13-2019, "Trump is rattling sabers in cyberspace — but is the U.S. ready? ," POLITICO, https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/13/trump-cybersecurity-defense-1415650**
The Trump administration is sending … staying within those parameters."
====Cyber-attacks between Iran and the U.S are becoming rapidly more frequent and severe====
Abdollah 19
**Tami Abdollah, 6-24-2019, "Iran Increases Cyber Attacks on U.S. Gov't, Infrastructure: Cyber Security Firms," Insurance Journal, https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2019/06/24/530257.htm**
Iran has increased its … bring the war home to the United States."
====The U.S has announced to use nuclear and conventional weapons to retaliate against major cyber attacks. This means the line between cyber and war is very thin and escalation is probable.====
Sanger 18
**David Sanger and William Broad, 1-16-2018, "Pentagon Suggests Countering Devastating Cyberattacks With Nuclear Arms," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/16/us/politics/pentagon-nuclear-review-cyberattack-trump.html**
WASHINGTON — A newly drafted United States …s to paralyze systems like
====Even conventional war escalates into nuclear war====
Avery 13
John Avery, 9-06-2013, "An Attack On Iran Could Escalate Into Global Nuclear War By John Scales Avery," Counter Currents, https://www.countercurrents.org/avery061113.htm (QUALS: John Avery studied theoretical chemistry at the University of London, and was awarded a Ph.D. there in 1965. He is now Associate Professor, at the Department of Chemistry, University of Copenhagen. He has been the Contact Person in Denmark for Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs. In 1995, this group received the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts.)
Despite the willingness of … indeed traitors to all living things.
===Link- Proliferation===
The second cause of conflict from OCO’s is proliferation
====Stuxnet streamlined Iranian proliferation by calling attention to unknown inefficiencies.====
**Mahoney** 13
**Jennifer O'Mahony, 5-23-2013, "IAEA confirms: Iran expanding uranium enrichment program," Telegraph, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/10076194/IAEA-confirms-Iran-expanding-uranium-enrichment-program.html**
In a report obtained by … older-generation enriching machines at Natanz.
====Stuxnet further provided the unique knowledge needed for Iran’s proliferation.====
Blaustein 13
**Michael Blaustein, 5-16-2013, "Stuxnet virus might have improved Iran’s nuclear capabilities: report," New York Post, https://nypost.com/2013/05/16/stuxnet-virus-might-have-improved-irans-nuclear-capabilities-report/**
While politicians in … potential," Barzashka warns.
====Now that Iran has the capacity and no reason to hold back, it has begun nuclearization====
Tirone 19
**Jonathan Tirone, 9-15-2019, "Iran’s Nuclear Program," Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/irans-uranium-enrichment**
Iran’s nuclear capabilities … capable of producing plutonium.
====Israel would start the military conflict with preemptive military strikes that it EMPIRICALLY carries out====
Horschig 19
**Doreen Horschig, 6-20-2019, "Israel could strike first as tensions with Iran flare," Conversation, https://theconversation.com/israel-could-strike-first-as-tensions-with-iran-flare-119146**
"Israel will not allow … world quietly watches.
**====Cyber operations potential to disable nuclear communication systems that undermines mutually assured destruction by disabling a nations ability to retaliate. This means both nuclear powers now feel compelled to launch preemptive strikes in fear of self-protection====**
Lindsay 17
**Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay, 2-14-2017, "Thermonuclear cyberwar," Journal Of Cybersecurity, **https://academic.oup.com/cybersecurity/article/3/1/37/2996537
In the other direction, the … damage the other can inflict.**
===Impact===
The impact is nuclear catastrophe
====War with Iran spurs a global nuclear war that causes extinction====
Avery 13
John Avery, 9-06-2013, "An Attack On Iran Could Escalate Into Global Nuclear War By John Scales Avery," Counter Currents, https://www.countercurrents.org/avery061113.htm (QUALS: John Avery studied theoretical chemistry at the University of London, and was awarded a Ph.D. there in 1965. He is now Associate Professor, at the Department of Chemistry, University of Copenhagen. He has been the Contact Person in Denmark for Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs. In 1995, this group received the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts.)
There is a danger that … traitors to all living things. | 904,029 |
365,225 | 379,076 | General Info | If you have any questions, feel free to reach out on Facebook Messenger.
If you want us to meet an interp, let us know before or we auto-meet.
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At the 2020 tab n dab Invitational, debaters must post links to all previous constructive speech docs read at the tournament on the NDCA Pf wiki 10 minutes before the round under the name they are competing with in the 2020 tab n dab invitational with. To clarify, this means you must include the full text of case as read in round.
Debaters must include round reports on the NDCA PF wiki under the school they entered as at least 10 minutes before round. | 904,035 |
365,226 | 379,094 | 0 - Content Warnings | Here are the things we'll read content warnings for:
- sexual assault/violence
- mental health/suicide
- graphic depictions of violence
If you feel uncomfortable with us reading any arguments concerning/mentioning anything, please let us know before the round so we can change my strategy accordingly. | 904,057 |
365,227 | 379,100 | 1 - AC - Disobedient Imaging v2 | =1AC – Carmel Valley R3=
==1AC==
===Part 1—Pathology of Imaging===
====Title—The Yellow Peril in all his glory====
====author unknown====
====1899====
====Title—The Mongolian Octopus====
====Author—Richard Neylon====
====1886====
===Part 2—Civil Society===
====In the 1900s, Newspaper editor Horace Greeley wrote in an editorial that "The Chinese are uncivilized, unclean, and filthy beyond all conception, without any of the higher domestic or social relations; lustful and sensual in their dispositions; every female is a prostitute of the basest order." Look how far we've progressed. ====
**====I went on a walk yesterday and passed a white couple. When they saw me, they gripped each others' hands and crossed the street. Why did the coronavirus elude their hands yet emanate through the air from my skin?====**
====The answer has been the same for centuries. Yellowness IS disease. The fear of the Yellow Peril visualizes Chinese immigrants as rats infesting the Nation. The image of the yellow body is racialized as the diseased animal that taints the white social body, either to be domesticated or to be expelled. Our very bodies are evidence of a foreign pathology that must be eliminated through legal apparatuses. Calls for political engagement like Andrew Yang's op-ed only entrench us in structure of violence and burden us with relieving our own oppression. ====
**Hong 4/12** ~~Hong, Cathy Park. "The Slur I Never Expected to Hear in 2020." The New York Times, The New York Times, 12 Apr. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/magazine/asian-american-discrimination-coronavirus.html. Accessed 5-2-2020. // ABML~~
On March 13, the Centers for Disease Control hadn't yet recommended that everyone wear
AND
was in the psyches of not only whites but other people of color.
====The logic of America is the logic of stability—the human is defined through cultural affects and signifiers—notions of sentiency, beauty, intellectuality construct the pristine white social body which acts as a master signifier that defines non-white subjects in degrees of difference to the white man. This cultural conditioning enacted through sensory imaging influences subjects on the neurological level which creates internalized racial biases. In rejecting human grammars, the aff sets forth different research practices that destroys boundaries of what constitutes "proper debate." The Role of the Ballot is to vote for the team who best cultivates subjectivity. ====
**McKittrick 15 (Katherine KcKittrick, Queen's University, "Sylvia Wynter: On Being Human as Praxis", **https://books.google.com/books/about/Sylvia_Wynter.html?id=Dj1zBgAAQBAJandprintsec=frontcoverandsource=kp_read_button~~#v=onepageandqandf=false**, 2015) CJun**
SW: The paleontologist Juan Luis Arsuaga proposes that the human is not only a
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Bell Curve, try to tell us that they/we are.61
===Part 3—Imaginative Art===
====Title: Growing Up Asian in America ====
====Artist unknown====
====Date unknown====
====Title unknown====
====Artist unknown====
====Date unknown====
===Part 4—Method===
====We affirm disobedient imaging. ====
====Art as activism contaminates the western citizen-subject with counter-cultural epistemologies threatening boundaries of white innocence. Radical imaging breaks the boundaries of rational, white, legal norms in the debate space. The 1ac's imaginative politics fractures the notion of the Asian body as dirty and disgusting to imagine alternative to oppressive systems, creating a third option outside of pathology and model minority which acts as a recognition of difference. This is key to being and becoming.====
Ang 17 "Creating from the Margins: Exploring the Role of Art in Asian American Activism", Allyson Ang, 2017, https://repository.wellesley.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1546andcontext=thesiscollection
This poster, created in 1971, is a powerful example of early Asian American
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it fits into the context of the Asian American Movement as a whole.
====Xenophobic desires reproduce policies that strip away agency from Asian bodies. In 1882 we're the filthy immigrants blocked out by the Chinese exclusion act. In the 21^^st^^ century our culture is kept in containment in the spatial space of Chinatown and we are beaten because our mere existence represents pathology. Legal solutions are insufficient and normative policy distances us from atrocities and consigns dysellected populations into the position of the unthought. ====
**Reid-Brinkley 2008** ~~Dr. Shanara Reid-Brinkley, "The Harsh Realities of "Acting Black": How African-American Policy Debaters Negotiate Representation Through Racial Performance and Style", P. 15~~//MHELLIE
Genre Violation Four: Policymaker as Impersonal and the Rhetoric of Personal Experience. Debate
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of the "policymaker" and require their opponents to do the same.
====White debaters shouldn't be rewarded for doing what is expected – even if white allies are possible, we shouldn't pat them on the back – the most hospitable option is to surrender the ballot to the dysellected other. ====
**Nopper 03** ~~Tamara K. Adjunct Lecturer of Asian American Studies @ The University of Pennsylvania, "The White Anti-Racist is an Oxymoron: An Open Letter to "White-Anti-Racist," http://racetraitor.org/nopper.html~~
I received an annoying e-mail about white people and their struggle to do
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feel dependent and grateful to white people who will actually interact with us. | 904,060 |
365,228 | 379,079 | Empowerment | Empowerment DA — 2:30
Sanctions empower Maduro’s regime
Three internal links:
Support
~Reuters~ Maduro saw a 6 increase in approval ratings after sanctions by the US
Reuters 17 (Reuters, international news organization, Reuters, Oct 2 2017, "Venezuela's Maduro approval rises to 23 percent after Trump sanctions: poll", https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/venezuelas-maduro-approval-rises-to-23-percent-after-trump-sanctions-poll-idUSKCN1C8037 DOA: 12/16/19)JDE JN
CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s approval rating rose to 23 percent
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negative. The survey’s margin of error was 3.04 percentage points.
Prefer:
It quantifies
Isolates timeframe
Increases oil production
~Slav 19~ Venezuelan tankers have been circumventing the sanctions by going under the radar and getting new creative ways to export such as turning off transponders. This is empirically proven as oil exports increased despite longer sanctions. This also
Slav ’19 Slav, Irina (Writer for Oilprice.com). "Venezuela Is Using Invisible Oil Tankers To Skirt Sanctions." Oil Price, 16 November 2019, https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Venezuela-Is-Using-Invisible-Oil-Tankers-To-Skirt-Sanctions.html**. ~Premier~ JN
U.S. sanctions on Venezuela have been squeezing the life out of its
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Oil vitalizes Venezuela’s economy which is critical to things such as public support
Enabling further alliances
Sanctions backfire—it pushes Maduro closer to Russia and gives him a scapegoat for his economic failings.
Ward ’19 Ward, Alex (Staff Writer at Vox on International Security and Defense). "The Trump administration’s Venezuela policy is failing." Vox, 3 May 2019, https://www.vox.com/world/2019/5/3/18528083/venezuela-guaido-maduro-trump-bolton-fail**. JN
The Trump administration’s main strategy for removing Maduro thus far is straightforward: sanction the
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its ammunition early, and now it’s struggling to stay in the fight.
Implications:
1~ Denies their transition arguments
2~ Creates Hegemonic competition and wars among great powers.
~Brands and Edelman 19~ China and Russia rising in power leads to war in two ways. First it creates increased conflict between the two nations and the United States which can easily escalate significantly leading to an existential threat. Second, as the US loses power China and Russia compete amongst each other to usurp power that the US loses creating massive conflicts and war among great powers amidst geopolitical revisionism.
Brands and Edelman ’19
Hal Brands; PhD, Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Charles Edelman; PhD, Senior Fellow and Visiting Scholar at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. ("The Lessons of Tragedy: Statecraft and World Order;" Ch. 6: Darkening Horizon; Published by Yale University Press; GrRv) rc/Pat
The revival of great-power competition entails higher international tensions than the world has
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with an eye to preserving and perhaps even selectively advancing its remarkable achievements.
3~ Supercharges violence impacts as not only are sanctions not effective in taking down Maduro but they worsen effects of Maduro’s regime because he gets more powerful i.e.: Refugees, Humanitarian crises, etc.
o/w their links
Magnitude of link – they isolate Venezuela while we interact with other factors I.e: China and Russia
Actor Specificity — This gives specific reasons why the US should end sanctions – their arguments just talk about conditions in Venezuela being bad but don’t incentivize US actions.
China and Russia taking over Venezuela makes sanctions irrelevant because Venezuela can get resources from them and the US loses the diplomatic legitimacy of their sanctions.
Extinction Outweighs:
It’s irreversible, you can’t bring back humanity
Preventing extinction preserves the ability to remedy other impacts as we have to be alive to do so
Probability is irrelevant as extinction has an infinite magnitude, so any non-zero probability means it’s an infinite impact
Extinction is generational ending one generation oppresses the option values of infinite future generations | 904,041 |
365,229 | 379,109 | ALL | Discord PM me: Vinay (FOZ)#7905
Email: [email protected] | 904,069 |
365,230 | 379,112 | oiltrastropheeeee | Contention One is Blackouts.
Venezuelan electrical networks are faltering and the electricity supply will only continue to worsen. The Guardian ‘19:
Sam Jones, 3-13-2019, "Venezuela blackout: what caused it and what happens next?," Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/13/venezuela-blackout-what-caused-it-and-what-happens-next
Six years later, Venezuela’s worst drought in four decades again affected the Guri dam, which then provided about 70 of the country’s electricity. In May last year, a union leader representing workers in the state power corporation, was arrested by Venezuela’s intelligence service, Sebin, after warning that poor maintenance and systemic problems meant that a blackout was likely to happen. Many of those most familiar with the Venezuelan national grid think not. Miguel Lara, former chief of the state-run agency responsible for the electricity system, said that one of Latin America’s best-managed and most productive electrical networks had, in recent years, been underfunded and overexploited. Lara said that the advice of qualified engineers had been ignored, causing many to leave. Without them, he added, the network had fallen into a dangerous state of disrepair. “The network lines and transformers weren’t looked after and got overgrown with vegetation and that vegetation started to cause failures. It’s poor maintenance and negligence.” Lara flatly rejected suggestions of cyber sabotage, as did engineers who told the Associated Press that the computers that monitor the Guri plant’s operating systems are not connected to the internet. “The control and supervision systems are interconnected and are from the 1990s and have never been updated,” said Lara. “They’re obsolete technology.” He also said the area around the Guri dam was too well guarded to allow intruders to gain access. “There’s no way anyone gets in there,” he said. “There’s a whole chain of command that regulates who’s allowed in to carry out works.” His thoughts echoed those of Chávez’s former oil minister, Rafael Ramírez, who went into exile after splitting with Maduro in 2017. “Guri has collapsed because of a lack of maintenance, just like the thermoelectric plants and the transmission and distribution lines,” he tweeted. Even if the power is coming back on, Venezuela’s electricity network will have been further weakened by the blackout. Linares describes the current state of energy infrastructure in the country as “wretched; most of the qualified people have left the country”. Lara agrees. “The electricity supply for Venezuelans will be worse than it was before,” he said. “And it wasn’t good before. There’s no doubt this was all foreseeable. That’s why people have left – they saw there was no will to fix it. It’ll only be more difficult from here on in.”
Sanctions worsen these power grid failures in two ways.
First is a lack of funding.
Because of isolation from international markets, government revenue has fallen. The Washington Post in 2019:
Francisco RodríGuez, 12-4-2019, "Opinion," Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/12/04/us-oil-sanctions-are-hurting-venezuelans-time-new-approach-pressure-maduro/
Venezuela is living through the deepest economic and humanitarian crisis in our hemisphere in more than a century. This catastrophe was triggered by the mismanagement and corruption of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez. Yet it is now increasingly clear that U.S. economic sanctions are also aggravating it. Since 2017, the Trump administration has progressively imposed an oil and financial embargo that has strongly curtailed the economy’s access to hard currency. After the latest round of oil sanctions this January, oil production fell by 400,000 barrels per day, leading to $8 billion in foregone export revenue. Imports have fallen by more than 50 percent from last year, according to my calculations based on trading-partner data, and now stand at less than one-tenth of their 2012 levels. Sanctions seek to punish governments that violate the rights of their people and induce them to change their conduct. But they can also end up harming the people that they intend to protect. In Venezuela, the escalation of sanctions was part of a strategy of “maximum pressure” aimed at producing a break in the military’s support of the regime. That break has not come about, and Venezuelans now get to live in the worst imaginable world: ruled by a dictatorship and living in a sanctioned economy.
As a result, sanctions prohibit the government from funding power grid equipment.
Ricardo Vaz, 4-10-2019, "Venezuela: New Power Outage as Oil Output Plummets," Venezuelanalysis, https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14425
Venezuela has suffered from a series of widespread power outages starting on March 7, with the government denouncing cyber, electromagnetic and physical attacks against the electric grid and the Guri Dam, the country’s main electricity generator. Venezuela’s electricity infrastructure has suffered from under-investment and lack of maintenance, as well as migration of qualified personnel, problems that have been compounded by US sanctions. Sanctions have stopped Venezuela from servicing equipment and from having the necessary fuel to activate backup thermoelectric plants. Torino Capital Chief Economist Francisco Rodriguez has estimated that the March blackouts have cost Venezuela US $2.9 billion, or 3.3 percent of GDP, with losses affecting basic industries and oil operations that might have lasting consequences.
Second is by preventing backups.
Sanctions prolong blackouts. Hetland in 2019:
Gabriel Hetland, 3-13-2019, "Venezuela’s Deadly Blackout Highlights the Need for a Negotiated Resolution of the Crisis," Nation, https://www.thenation.com/article/venezuela-blackout-us-sanctions-maduro/
For US officials, most of the mainstream media, and opposition leaders in Venezuela, this is the end of the story. Yet things are not so simple. Over the past 10 years blackouts have become a regular occurrence in Venezuela. The current blackout is significantly worse, however, in both its breadth and duration because of. A key reason is the lack of diesel and gasoline, which are needed to fuel backup generators. As The New York Times notes, “Not one of more than a dozen diesel- and natural gas-powered backup plants built by the government in the last decade came online to compensate for the Guri outage.” Buried at the end of this story, the Times says that US “sanctions have affected Venezuela’s ability to import and produce the fuel required by the thermal power plants that could have backed up the Guri plant once it failed.” In other words, US actions are a key reason this blackout has been so prolonged and devastating. To be blunt: Washington is directly responsible for increasing Venezuelans’ suffering. Mark Weisbrot argues that “the death toll from the US sanctions…is likely in the thousands or tens of thousands so far.” As Weisbrot notes, US sanctions have been wreaking havoc on Venezuela for years, with the damage set to increase dramatically in the wake of the extremely debilitating sanctions imposed on Venezuela’s oil sector in late January. The most appalling aspect of US policy toward Venezuela is that the officials directing it, including Florida Senator Marco Rubio, appear to be fully aware of the suffering they are causing.
A lack of backups specifically prolonged the blackout. The New York TImes in 2019-
Francisco RodríGuez and Jorge Alejandro RodríGuez, 3-26-2019, "Opinion," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/26/opinion/venezuela-maduro-blackout.html
To fully understand why it took Venezuela at least four days to restore power in March and, you need an even wider lens: one that includes Washington. It is undeniable that Mr. Chávez and Mr. Maduro are to blame for having brought the country to this ruinous state. Nevertheless, United States economic sanctions have left Mr. Maduro’s government unable to resolve the crisis on its own. The cause of the first blackout is now well understood. A comprehensive report by the chairman of the engineering school at Central University in Caracas shows that the blackout resulted from a wildfire near three power transmission lines from the Guri Dam complex in southeastern Venezuela. The complex includes several hydroelectric dams and power stations that provide 80 percent of the nation’s electricity; its shutdown can thus by itself produce a nationwide blackout. Certainly, failing to cut back vegetation could have increased the probability of the fire, though wildfires can occur just about anywhere. But the real problem is not so much that a blackout occurred but that it took more than four days to get power back. To restart the system, dam generators and substations in distant points of the country needed to be activated. But only around one-fifth of the country’s thermal power capacity was operational at the moment of the shutdown, leaving little to no room for thermal generation backup to temporarily replace the energy generated by the dams. The absence of an alternate power source, lack of specialized workers, deteriorated equipment and faulty management thus all appear to have played their part in prolonging the blackout. Yet United States economic sanctions also played a part. For starters, one of the reasons some of the thermal power plants were down was the lack of fuel necessary to run them. Many of these plants run on diesel, which Venezuela was importing from the United States before the Trump administration banned its trade in January. It is not surprising that many diesel-fueled thermal plants were inactive one month later.
The longer the blackout, the less resources that can get to the people, which is why blackouts endanger citizens.
Gavin Fernando@Gavindfernando, xx-xx-xxxx, "Maduro blames US for Venezuela’s deadly blackout," NewsComAu, https://www.news.com.au/world/south-america/venezuelan-government-blames-us-for-deadly-ongoing-blackout/news-story/8a03a0e1e5d5643e6b19e76d34e79511
No national data was available about the impact of the power outage, but an NGO said at least 15 patients with advanced kidney disease died after they stopped receiving dialysis treatments in darkened hospitals. There are reports that a further 10,000 are at risk if they continue without treatment. On the streets, locals are being arrested for looting as supermarkets close down and the desperation for food grows. “We don’t want to loot stores, we don’t want to cause problems. What we want is food. We’re hungry,” a Caracas resident named Majorie told the BBC. This photo shows the outside of a looted supermarket in the city. Security forces have detained large groups of people amid looting, with pro-government biker gangs reportedly enforcing vigilante law at gunpoint. The blackouts have also hit the oil industry. The country hasn’t shipped $506 million in oil since the power failures started, and “the whole system is grinding to a halt,” said Russ Dallen, a Miami-based partner at the brokerage firm Caracas Capital Markets.
Blackouts are dangerous to the people. The Guardian ‘19 -
Sam Jones, 3-13-2019, "Venezuela blackout: what caused it and what happens next?," Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/13/venezuela-blackout-what-caused-it-and-what-happens-next
“Those who’ve systematically attacked the noble people of Venezuela in all kinds of ways will once again be confronted with the mettle and courage that we, the children of our liberator Simón Bolívar, have demonstrated in the face of difficulties,” Rodríguez said in a statement read on state television. He appealed for calm and said contingency plans had been activated so that medical facilities would not be affected. Security forces were also being deployed to guarantee public safety. Venezuela suffered a series of blackouts in March that left millions of people without running water and telecommunications. The power cuts were the worst in decades and exacerbated the an economic crisis that has halved the size of the economy. The government blamed the March blackouts on a US-sponsored attempt to disrupt the Guri dam hydro facility, which provides about 80 of the country’s power. Venezuela’s national power grid has fallen into disrepair after years without investment and insufficient maintenance, according to the opposition and power experts.
Blackouts trigger a water crisis. Dunlevy ‘19 -
Leah Dunlevy, 4-6-2019, "In Venezuela, Repeated Power Outages Have Triggered a Water Crisis (in Photos)," Pacific Standard, https://psmag.com/news/in-venezuela-repeated-power-outages-have-triggered-a-water-crisis-in-photos
Two major blackouts have triggered a widespread water crisis across Venezuela. In the wake of repeated outages, roughly 20 million people (two-thirds of the country's population) have experienced water shortages in the last two weeks, according to the Washington Post. As a result, some Venezuelans are resorting to contaminated water sources, which has led to a rise in diarrhea, typhoid fever, and hepatitis A, Maria Eugenia Landaeta, who heads the infectious-disease department at the University Hospital of Caracas, told the Post. The South American country has been experiencing economic collapse amid an ongoing political struggle between President Nicolás Maduro and opposition leader Juan Guaidó. United States oil sanctions began in January and have sharply curbed the nation's profits, which previously came almost entirely from oil revenue. The persistent outages have only amplified the political conflict. While Venezuela has experienced water shortages before, the country has never experienced repeated water crises of this magnitude. Medical services, public transportation, and schools have all been drastically impacted by the continued outages.
Contention Two is an Oil Catastrophe.
Venezuela’s oil industry is dying. Rodriguez ‘19 of The Washington Post -
Francisco RodríGuez, 12-4-2019, "Opinion," Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/12/04/us-oil-sanctions-are-hurting-venezuelans-time-new-approach-pressure-maduro/
Venezuela is living through the deepest economic and humanitarian crisis in our hemisphere in more than a century. This catastrophe was triggered by the mismanagement and corruption of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez. Yet it is now increasingly clear that U.S. economic sanctions are also aggravating it. Since 2017, the Trump administration has progressively imposed an oil and financial embargo that has strongly curtailed the economy’s access to hard currency. After the latest round of oil sanctions this January, oil production fell by 400,000 barrels per day, leading to $8 billion in foregone export revenue. Imports have fallen by more than 50 percent from last year, according to my calculations based on trading-partner data, and now stand at less than one-tenth of their 2012 levels.
Lifting sanctions solves for this catastrophe and revives oil for 2 reasons
First is finance markets.
August 2017 sanctions prohibited the Venezuelan government from borrowing in US financial markets - Weisbrot of CEPR
No Author, xx-xx-xxxx, "," No Publication, http://cepr.net/images/stories/reports/venezuela-sanctions-2019-04.pdf
It is important to emphasize that nearly all of the foreign exchange that is needed to import medicine, food, medical equipment, spare parts and equipment needed for electricity generation, water systems, or transportation, is received by the Venezuelan economy through the government’s revenue from the export of oil. Thus, any sanctions that reduce export earnings, and therefore government revenue, thereby reduce the imports of these essential and, in many cases, life-saving goods. The August 2017 sanctions adversely impacted oil production in Venezuela. But following the August 2017 executive order, oil production crashed, falling at more than three times the rate of the previous twenty months. This would be expected from the loss of credit and therefore the ability to cover maintenance and operations and carry out new investments necessary to maintain production levels. This acceleration in the rate of decline of oil production would imply a loss of $6 billion in oil revenue over the ensuing year. This by itself is an enormous loss of foreign exchange, relative to the country’s need for essential imports. Imports of food and medicine for 2018 were just $2.6 billion. Total imports of goods for 2018 were about $10 billion. The loss of so many billions of dollars of foreign exchange and government revenues was very likely the main shock that pushed the economy from its high inflation, when the August 2017 sanctions were implemented, into the hyperinflation that followed.
Second is less customers.
Venezuela was one of America’s largest suppliers - Egan ‘19 of CNN
Matt Egan, Cnn Business, 3-21-2019, "America's imports of Venezuelan oil plunge to zero. Here's why that's a big deal," CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/21/business/venezuela-oil-imports-united-states/index.html
It marks a sharp decline from the prior week, when the United States imported 112,000 barrels per day from Venezuela. The plunge in oil shipments from Venezuela helped lift US oil prices above $60 a barrel this week for the first time since November. President Donald Trump imposed tough sanctions on Venezuela in January in an effort to punish the regime of Nicolas Maduro and speed its demise. But US Gulf Coast refineries have long relied on Venezuela's heavy grade of crude to churn out gasoline, jet fuel and diesel that keep the American economy humming. Just a year ago, Venezuela shipped more than half a million barrels of oil per day to US shores, making the Latin American country one of America's largest suppliers. "I suspect it will stay at zero. It's a big problem for US refiners," said Ryan Fitzmaurice, energy strategist at Rabobank. "We really do need that heavy crude that comes from Venezuela. We're finding it difficult to source it from elsewhere."
Sanctions take away the US and other countries as customers - Weisbrot
No Author, xx-xx-xxxx, "," No Publication, http://cepr.net/images/stories/reports/venezuela-sanctions-2019-04.pdf
The most immediate impact of the January sanctions was to cut off Venezuela from its largest oil market, the United States, which had bought 35.6 percent of Venezuela’s oil exports in 2018, or about 586,000 barrels per day on average. In the week of March 15, US imports of Venezuelan oil fell to zero for the first time, and they remained at zero for another two weeks before rebounding to a fraction of their 2018 average. The Trump administration also intervened to pressure other countries, including India, not to buy the oil that had been previously imported by the US. For example, on March 28, Reuters reported that “the United States has instructed oil trading houses and refiners around the world to further cut Economic Sanctions as Collective Punishment: The Case of Venezuela 3 dealings with Venezuela or face sanctions themselves, even if the trades are not prohibited by published US sanctions…” These threats are effective because the US government can sanction foreign financial institutions who do not comply with its demands. As a result of these and other efforts Venezuela’s oil production declined by 130,000 barrels per day from January to February. In the six months prior, it was declining by an average of 20,500 barrels per day. Then in March it fell another 289,000 barrels per day, for a total of 431,000 barrels per day. This is an economically devastating 36.4 percent plunge in oil production just since the January sanctions.
Overall, sanctions have devastated Venezuela’s economy - Krauss ‘19
Anatoly Kurmanaev and Clifford Krauss, 2-8-2019, "U.S. Sanctions Are Aimed at Venezuela’s Oil. Its Citizens May Suffer First.," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/08/world/americas/venezuela-sanctions-maduro.html
But crucial help came from Venezuela’s biggest oil investor, Russia’s state-run Rosneft. The company said in a presentation this week that it would increase its output in Venezuela this year despite the sanctions, and that it remained committed to the country, throwing a lifeline to Mr. Maduro’s government. Venezuela’s economy has already shrunk by about half since Mr. Maduro came to power in 2013, causing millions of people to flee the country or skip meals to survive. Now the new American sanctions could cut Venezuela’s oil exports by two-thirds, to just $14 billion this year, and lead to a 26 percent reduction in the economy’s size, according to Mr. Rodríguez, the economist. Mr. Trump said the oil sanctions were meant to punish Mr. Maduro for human rights violations and force him to cede power to Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader whom the United States and many other countries have recognized as the rightful Venezuelan president.
Venezuela’s economy is dependent on oil - Weisbrot ‘18
Mark Weisbrot, 2-28-2019, "Trump’s Other ‘National Emergency’: Sanctions That Kill Venezuelans," Nation, https://www.thenation.com/article/venezuela-sanctions-emergency/
How do economic sanctions kill people? In general, they do so by damaging the economy. This includes loss of employment and income for people living on the margin, and, most importantly, reduced access to life-saving necessities such as medicines, medical supplies, and health care. In Iraq in the 1990s, for example, the number of children who died from the sanctions was in the hundreds of thousands. But the Venezuelan people have been even more vulnerable to US economic sanctions than Iraqis were. Venezuela is dependent on oil exports for almost all of the dollars the economy needs to import necessities such as medicine and food. This means that anything that reduces oil production is primarily hitting the general population by cutting off the dollars that both the private sector and government use to import goods for people’s basic needs, as well as for transport, spare parts, and most goods that the economy needs in order to function. The Trump sanctions of August 2017 imposed a financial embargo that cut Venezuela off from most borrowing. This had an enormous impact on oil production, which had already been declining. The rate of decline accelerated rapidly; during the year following the sanctions, it would fall by 700,000 barrels a day, about three times as fast as it had fallen over the previous 20 months. This post-sanction acceleration in the loss of oil production amounts to the loss of more than $6 billion. For comparison, Venezuela, when the economy was growing, spent about $2 billion per year on medicines. Total goods imports for 2018 are estimated at $11.7 billion.
The impact is direct harm to the people of Venezuela
Venezuelan poverty has reached a breaking point - Sequera ‘19 of Reuters
Vivian Sequera, 2-21-2018, "Venezuelans report big weight losses in 2017 as hunger hits," U.S., https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-food/venezuelans-report-big-weight-losses-in-2017-as-hunger-hits-idUSKCN1G52HA
The study calculated the poverty rate from 13 different indicators such as income and access to services. If the average of these indicators was above 25 percent, investigators defined a person as poor. Prices in Venezuela rose 4,068 percent in the 12 months to the end of January, according to estimates by the country’s opposition-led National Assembly, broadly in line with independent economists’ figures. The study showed that 87 percent of people in Venezuela, one of Latin America’s wealthiest nations back in the 1970s, were living in poverty last year, rising from 82 percent in 2016 and 48 percent in 2014. The Venezuelan government has not released data on poverty since the first half of 2015 when the national statistics institute reported a poverty rate of 33 percent. The government did not respond to a request for comments on the study, but its supporters often accuse academics of exaggerating data and being in league with the opposition.
This leads to death - Sachs ‘19
No Author, xx-xx-xxxx, "," No Publication, http://cepr.net/images/stories/reports/venezuela-sanctions-2019-04.pdf
According to the National Survey on Living Conditions (ENCOVI by its acronym in Spanish), an annual survey of living conditions administered by three Venezuelan universities, there was a 31 percent increase in general mortality from 2017 to 2018. This would imply an increase of more than 40,000 deaths. More than 300,000 people were estimated to be at risk because of lack of access to medicines or treatment. This includes an estimated 80,000 people with HIV who have not had antiretroviral treatment since 2017, 16,000 people who need dialysis, 16,000 people with cancer, and 4 million with diabetes and hypertension (many of whom cannot obtain insulin or cardiovascular medicine). These numbers by themselves virtually guarantee that the current sanctions, which are much more severe than those implemented before this year, are a death sentence for tens of thousands of Venezuelans. This is especially true if the projected 67 percent drop in oil revenue materializes in 2019. The accelerating economic collapse that current sanctions have locked in assure further impacts on health, and premature deaths. For example, the increasing collapse of export revenue — and therefore imports — has also created massive public health problems in the areas of water and sanitation.
The future is grim for Venezuela if sanctions aren’t ended - Pinzon of Brookings ‘19
Michael E. O'Hanlon and Juan Carlos PinzóN, 9-10-2019, "Get ready for the Venezuela refugee crisis," Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/09/10/get-ready-for-the-venezuela-refugee-crisis/
With its economy in free fall, after having already contracted by half this decade, and with its future politics completely up in the air as President Nicolas Maduro clings semi-constitutionally to power, Venezuela teeters on the brink. Already one of the world’s most crime-afflicted countries, it risks becoming something closer to a failed state in future months. Think of Somalia or Libya, but several times larger in population and several times closer to the United States. For Colombia, Brazil, Guyana, and Caribbean island nations like Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela and its thirty-one million people are right next door. Refugee crises in North Africa and the Middle East have been getting more of the news coverage, but already the human flows out of Venezuela have reached comparable magnitudes — and, with the U.S. oil embargo kicking in, the scale of the problem may soon get much worse. The United States and Colombia should therefore take the lead in planning for what could become, in a plausible worst case, the collapse of Venezuela. Even if things do not get that bad, it is easy to imagine scenarios in which ten million Venezuelans become refugees — with many millions inside the country struggling just to stay alive as food supplies dwindle and public health conditions deteriorate even further.
To save the people of venezuela, we affirm | 904,072 |
365,231 | 379,119 | 1- truth | opensource | 904,080 |
365,232 | 379,151 | B-CC Content Warning Interp | Interpretation: Debaters must verbally disclose if their speech discusses nongraphic or graphic potentially triggering subject matters, in this case: what they read.
Trigger warnings keep survivors safe.
Innocent Lives Foundation. "Importance of Trigger Warnings". The Innocent Lives Foundation, No Date, https://www.innocentlivesfoundation.org/importance-of-trigger-warnings/. (JL)
Trigger warnings are simple
TO
decide when they are ready | 904,189 |
365,233 | 379,149 | B-CC Paraphrasing Interps | Interpretation: when evidence is introduced in round, it must be read as a full cut card and not paraphrased.
Interpretation: when evidence is introduced in case, it must be read as a full cut card and not paraphrased. | 904,187 |
365,234 | 379,138 | DDA AC V1 | Insurance is becoming increasingly more difficult to obtain for millions of Americans.
Collins, Sara R. Who Are the Remaining Uninsured, and Why Do They Lack Coverage? 28 Aug. 2019, www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2019/aug/who-are-remaining-uninsured-and-why-do-they-lack-coverage. //Roy
in 2018, an estimated 30.4 million people were uninsured, up from a low of 28.6 million in 2016. Coverage gains have stalled in most states and have even eroded in some.
Medicare-for-all saves lives.
Franks P, Clancy Cm, Gold Mr., xx-xx-xxxx, "Health Insurance and Mortality in US Adults," PubMed Central (PMC), https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2775760/ //Roy
a 25 higher risk of death among uninsured compared with privately insured adults.
Ingraham 20:
Christopher Ingraham, 2-20-2020, "Here’s that Medicare-for-all study Bernie Sanders keeps bringing up
," Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/02/20/lancet-medicare-for-all-study/ //Roy
a single-payer system akin to Sanders’s plan would slash the nation’s health-care expenditures by 13 percent, or more than $450 billion, each year. Not only that, “ensuring health-care access for all Americans would save more than 68,000 lives.”
Pandemic growth speed has increased.
Patrick R. Saunders-Hastings, 11-6-2016, "Reviewing the History of Pandemic Influenza: Understanding Patterns of Emergence and Transmission," PubMed Central (PMC), https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5198166/ //Roy
Population growth, human mobility, and greater proximity to animal reservoirs continue to increase both the risk of pandemic emergence and the speed with which such a pandemic could spread across the globe.
Antonelli 20:
Ashley Antonelli, 5-15-2020, "Weekly line: Why deadly disease outbreaks could become more common—even after Covid-19," No Publication, https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/05/15/weekly-line //Roy
infectious disease outbreaks could become more common.
These outbreaks are devastating.
Patrick R. Saunders-Hastings, 11-6-2016, "Reviewing the History of Pandemic Influenza: Understanding Patterns of Emergence and Transmission," PubMed Central (PMC), https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5198166/ //Roy
If a pandemic today were to kill the same proportion as in 1918, this would equal between 74 and 370 million people.
Granting everyone access to medical care would dramatically mitigate the effects of these pandemics.:
Ann Kimberly Petersen, 9-xx-2014, "," Calhoun.nps, https://calhoun.nps.edu/bitstream/handle/10945/43979/14Sep_Petersen_Kimberly.pdf?sequence=1 //Roy
, if people have health insurance, they are more likely to go to the doctor when they are ill. Conversely, a lack of health insurance equals worse health outcomes because patients wait longer to seek care and present at a later stage of illness.60 Anthrax is not contagious; a person sickened with anthrax cannot pass the disease to another person. If a bioattack involves a contagious disease, enabling early identification and treatment, which are even more critical.
Khan 17:
Laura H. Khan, 6-5-2017, "Why access to health care is a national security issue," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, https://thebulletin.org/2017/06/why-access-to-health-care-is-a-national-security-issue/ //EZG
Countries like Canada, which has universal health coverage and a well-funded public health infrastructure, are much better prepared to handle deadly epidemics
Universal access to care reduces chronic pain~-~--solves the root cause for opioid demand.
Maki 2-16-17 (Jennifer, Senior Director in the Center for Healthcare Economics and Policy at FTI Consulting and an Academic Associate at Arizona State University, College of Health Solutions, served as a testifying economic expert in litigation related to opioids, “Applying the rules of supply and demand to the Opioid Crisis” http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/healthcare/319819-applying-the-rules-of-supply-and-demand-to-the-opioid-crisis) //Conrad
Poor health drives demand for prescription opioid pain medication, so trying to approach the opioid epidemic by monitoring supply or by increasing addiction or overdose treatment options will not fully address the problem. To reduce demand for opiates, there must be greater focus not only on preventive care and improving overall health (thus reducing the need for pain medication), but also increasing access to care,
Lack of insurance drives opioid demand~-~--plan makes alternative pain treatments accessible~-~--that solves
German Lopez, 8-1-2017, "How to stop the deadliest drug overdose crisis in American history," Vox, https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/1/15746780/opioid-epidemic-end //EZG
there are hundreds of non-opioid medications already available.) But to get these options, more patients will need to be able to see doctors who will like Mackey to help put them on the right treatment plan. Such specialists remain out of reach as they are — too expensive, too far away — for many patients. This is a reason that opioids became so popular in the first place: It’s much easier to give someone a pill than to get them into an expensive, complicated pain treatment program. Addressing the faults of the health care system, from lack of local options to lack of insurance, would help solve
For profit insurers overprescribe opioids and drive addiction~-~--single payer solves.
Corbett 9-18-17 (Jessica, staff writer Common Dreams, “Bolstering Single-Payer Case, Report Shows How For-Profit Insurers Fuel Opioid Crisis” https://www.commondreams.org/news/2017/09/18/bolstering-single-payer-case-report-shows-how-profit-insurers-fuel-opioid-crisis) //Conrad
for-profit system, a new report by ProPublica and the New York Times reveals that despite the U.S. opioid crisis, many insurance companies provide easy access to highly addictive opioid medications for pain relief while restricting access to less-risky but more costly alternatives. As the nation's opioid epidemic has grown, "drugmakers, pharmaceutical distributors, pharmacies, and doctors have come under intense scrutiny in recent years, but the role that insurers—and the pharmacy benefit managers that run their drug plans—have played in the opioid crisis has received less attention," note the Times' Katie Thomas and ProPublica's Charles Ornstein. The pair spoke with patients who have struggled to access pain relief medications through insurance providers such as Anthem and UnitedHealthcare, the nation's largest insurer. They also analyzed Medicare prescription drug plans that covered 35.7 million Americans and found only a third of those with coverage could access "a painkilling skin patch that contains a less-risky opioid," whereas nearly all plans covered "common opioids, and very few required any prior approval." Further, they found that "insurers have also erected more hurdles to approving addiction treatments than for the addictive substances themselves." And although addiction experts have observed that as this epidemic evolves, "the problem now appears to be rooted more in the illicit trade of heroin and fentanyl," the reporters also note a recent Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analysis showing that "risks for chronic use" increase "with each additional day" an opioid is prescribed, and of those patients who receive initial 10-day prescriptions, 20 percent will continue using the drugs after one year. The ProPublica/Times report provoked an outpouring of personal anecdotes that often mirrored those featured in the article, and strong condemnation of insurance companies, as well as doctors and the pharmaceutical industry. It also spurred calls for reform—to prescription practices and drug costs, but also to healthcare more broadly. This report comes less than a week after Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), with substantial support from Senate Democrats, introduced a bill aimed at reforming how Americans access health insurance and healthcare. Sanders' Medicare for All bill proposes transitioning from the U.S.'s for-profit healthcare system toward a national single-payer program that guarantees care for all Americans. In an op-ed for the Boston Globe last week, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) wrote of the opioid crisis: "I believe we can beat this epidemic,"
Strong cartels will cause Mexico state collapse~-~--US opioid demand key.
Racke 9-15-17 (Will, Immigration and Foreign Policy Reporter, Daily Caller, Report: John Kelly Thinks Mexico Could Be The Next Venezuela” http://dailycaller.com/2017/09/15/report-john-kelly-thinks-mexico-could-be-the-next-venezuela/) //EZG
The struggle for control of heroin trafficking routes and distribution nodes, known as “plazas,” is a prime driver of the violence, according to security analysts. America’s insatiable appetite for cheap opioids provides an irresistible opportunity for up-and-coming drug traffickers or splinter groups, who are willing to use extreme violence to push out established organizations. Today, north of 90 percent of all heroin trafficked into the U.S. comes from Mexico,
Homicide rates are increasing under cartel violence.
Racke 9-15-17 (Will, Immigration and Foreign Policy Reporter, Daily Caller, Report: John Kelly Thinks Mexico Could Be The Next Venezuela” http://dailycaller.com/2017/09/15/report-john-kelly-thinks-mexico-could-be-the-next-venezuela/) //EZG
Mexico has seen a disturbing rise in drug cartel-related violence in recent years, as competition among warring factions of formerly dominant cartels, and between newly ascendant criminal organizations, which has pushed homicide rates to their highest in two decades. Based on his evaluation of Mexico’s security situation and political stability, Kelly believes there is a real danger the country’s government could collapse under the weight of brutal drug cartel violence
Mexico is descending into Venezuela-like conditions.
Racke 9-15-17 (Will, Immigration and Foreign Policy Reporter, Daily Caller, Report: John Kelly Thinks Mexico Could Be The Next Venezuela” http://dailycaller.com/2017/09/15/report-john-kelly-thinks-mexico-could-be-the-next-venezuela/) //EZG
Mexico could descend to Venezuela’s level as a borderline failed state.
Opioids Kill.
CDC, 3-19-2020, "Drug Overdose Deaths," Centers for Disease Control, https://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/data/statedeaths.html //EZG
Opioids—mainly synthetic opioids (other than methadone)—are currently the main driver of drug overdose deaths. Opioids were involved in 46,802 overdose deaths in 2018
The opioid crisis is harmful to the economy.
Council of Economic Advisers, 10-28-2019, "The Full Cost of the Opioid Crisis: $2.5 Trillion Over Four Years," White House, https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/full-cost-opioid-crisis-2-5-trillion-four-years/ //EZG
the opioid crisis, which the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) estimates cost $696 billion in 2018—or 3.4 percent of GDP—and more than $2.5 trillion for the four-year period from 2015 to 2018. These massive costs point to the nationwide economic destruction from America’s very human “crisis next door.” In 2017, CEA published a report that measured the full cost of the opioid crisis by considering the value of lost lives, as well as increases in healthcare and substance abuse treatment costs, increases in criminal justice costs, and reductions in productivity. | 904,136 |
365,235 | 379,128 | Gulf States AC Cooperation and Israel V2 | Our First Contention Concerns Cooperation
Our current strategy in the Middle East has the region headed towards calamity.
Bolan, Christopher J. “The US Is Trying to Restore Deterrence in the Gulf. That Won't Be Enough.” Defense One, 6 Oct. 2019, www.defenseone.com/ideas/2019/10/us-trying-restore-deterrence-gulf-wont-be-enough/160394/.
The United States’ ability to deter
TO
careen into war.
AND
a failure to address the basic
TO
long-term security of the Gulf.”
Watts 18 explains:
Watts, S., Priebe, M., Frederick, B., Kavannagh, J., and Povlock, M. (2018). U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict. Retrieved March 28, 2020, from https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1900/RR1906/RAND_RR1906.pdf
U.S. commitments and troop
TO
disputes, or even initiating conflicts
Hamidad 13 explains:
Hamidaddin, Abdullah. “A Window for Iranian-Gulf Relations?” Al Arabiya English, Al Arabaya Network, 20 Sept. 2013, english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2013/09/20/A-window-for-Iranian-Gulf-relations-.html.
the American invasion of Iraq
TO
interests regionally and globally.
Fortunately, American withdrawal can foster the collaboration necessary for peace.
Ashford, Emma. “Unbalanced: Rethinking America’s Commitment to the Middle East.” Strategic Studies Quarterly, Cato Institute, 2018, www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/articles/ashford-ssq-november-2018.pdf.
though the Obama administration’s pivot
TO
to build better regional alliances.
A significantly greater reduction in our presence would not only enable the creation of alliances, but would mandate them.
Luck, Taylor. “Iran Crisis: Why Gulf Arabs Increasingly See US as a Liability.” The Christian Science Monitor, The Christian Science Monitor, 8 Jan. 2020, www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2020/0108/Iran-crisis-Why-Gulf-Arabs-increasingly-see-US-as-a-liability.
The Gulf’s dramatic turnabout and push
TO
only way forward with Iran.
Contention two is reigning in Israel.
Tisdall 19 finds:
Tisdall, Simon. “Why Instinct and Ideology Tell Trump to Get out of the Middle East.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 11 Jan. 2020, www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/11/why-instinct-and-ideology-tell-trump-to-get-out-of-the-middle-east-suleimani-iran?fbclid=IwAR06-cRXalB16uEvdS5-eTrWU-UWpSh-_MbpPdEqgp_vPorzgXCvdGovspg.
a symbolic weakening of America’s
TO
the country was not abandoned.
The creation of such a mutual defence treaty would be a major boon for stability in the region.
Lappin, Yaakov, et al. “Is Now the Right Time for a US-Israel Mutual Defense Pact?” JNS.org, 8 Dec. 2019, www.jns.org/is-it-time-for-a-us-israel-mutual-defense-pact/.
the pact would force
TO
a potential American veto.
Without it, the risks are extremely high.
Allinson, Tom. “Israel-Iran Conflict to Be Major Middle East Issue in 2020: DW: 02.01.2020.” DW.COM, 1 Mar. 2020, www.dw.com/en/israel-iran-conflict-to-be-major-middle-east-issue-in-2020/a-51600787.
Despite their aggressive rhetoric
TO
and more direct confrontation,”
Makovsky 19:
Makovsky, Michael, and Charles Wald. “The US and Israel Should Agree on a Mutual Defense Pact.” The Jerusalem Post | JPost.com, 17 Dec. 2019, www.jpost.com/opinion/the-us-and-israel-should-agree-on-a-mutual-defense-pact-611118.
no war has broken out
AND
50 allies on five continents.
Conflict between Iran and Israel would be absolutely devastating.
Oren, Michael. “The Coming Middle East Conflagration.” The Atlantic, Atlantic Media Company, 5 Nov. 2019, www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/11/israel-preparing-open-war/601285/.
Rockets, many carrying tons of
TO
as high as 4,000. | 904,122 |
365,236 | 379,165 | adv-Global Growth | open sourced | 904,205 |
365,237 | 379,024 | 0 - Disclosure Policy for Round Robins | We define disclosure as general contact information as well as citations that must include author and hyperlink as well as 3-word or more start and end of which the tag line is derived. For theory, you must disclose all interps, standard taglines and summaries, voters, judge action and implications, as well as RVI and competing interp positions. A. Debaters with computers competing at round robin tournaments must disclose all previously read positions from the current season via tag lines and citations of evidence at least 15 minutes before round.
Any questions can be directed towards me and rememer. IF YOU NEED MORE TIME THEN LET US TO DISCLOSE EARLIER. People should adjust to other people's policies to ensure debate is inclusive | 903,958 |
365,238 | 379,028 | 2- MAR NC 1 | =1NC=
We negate that the United States should increase its use of nuclear power
==C1: Killing Renewables==
====Nuclear power construction is too slow, expensive, and unsustainable for fighting climate change. However, renewables are rapidly expanding====
Dunai 19
Marton Dunai and Geert De Clercq, 9-24-2019, "Nuclear energy too slow, too expensive to save climate: report," Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-nuclearpower/nuclear-energy-too-slow-too-expensive-to-save-climate-report-idUSKBN1W909J
BUDAPEST/PARIS (Reuters) - Nuclear power is losing ground … lose 25 of their nuclear capacity by 2025.
====Expanding nuclear crowds out spending for faster and more cost-effective alternatives in providing zero carbon power====
Cooper 19
Mark Cooper, 8-xx-2019, "THE ENDGAME FOR NUCLEAR POWER: A DESPERATE PUSH FOR SUBSIDIES IN THE 2019 TAX EXTENDERS", Institute for Energy and Environment @ Vermont Law School, https://1bps6437gg8c169i0y1drtgz-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019-10-22'Final-FOE-ITC-Study.pdf
Since that is the history, the only … the short, medium, and long term.
====~~In fact~~, every dollar spent on nuclear produces one-fifth the clean energy that we would get out of renewables====
Cirino 19
Heidi Hutner and Erica Cirino, 5-28-2019, "Nuclear power is not the answer in a time of climate change – Heidi Hutner andamp; Erica Cirino," Aeon, https://aeon.co/ideas/nuclear-power-is-not-the-answer-in-a-time-of-climate-change
Lassiter and several other … have no functional power plants.
====~~Ultimately,~~ Increasing nuclear power destroys the renewable energy market====
Karlin 18
Max Karlin, 6-06-2018, "Experts: Nuclear Bailout Could Cost up oto $17 Billion a Year and ‘Destroy’ Renewables Industry In US", Nuclear Information and Resource Service, https://www.nirs.org/press/experts-nuclear-bailout-could-cost-up-to-17-billion-a-year-and-destroy-renewables-industry-in-u-s/
The controversial Trump Administration plan … technologies such as coal or nuclear."
====Renewable energy is imperative in reducing emissions====
Mcgee 19
Julius McGee and Patrick Greinerb, 5-29-2019, "Renewable energy injustice: The socio-environmental implications of renewable energy consumption", Energy Research and Social Science, https://sci-hub.tw/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629618310971
Interestingly, results from Model 2 of Table 4 …decreases CO2 emissions per capita by .322.
====Current carbon emissions are a leading cause of death in the US====
Mcquate 19
Sarah Mcquate, 11-20-2019, "Emissions from electricity generation lead to disproportionate number of premature deaths for some racial groups," UW News, https://www.washington.edu/news/2019/11/20/electricity-generation-emissions-premature-deaths/
Air pollution doesn’t just come … accounting for differences in income. | 903,962 |
365,239 | 379,066 | 0 - Disclosure Policy | Debaters with computers competing at TOC-bidding tournaments must disclose all previously read positions and off-case arguments via tag lines and citations of evidence at least 15 minutes (IF NOT IMMEDIATELY AFTER BREAKING) before round. The citation must include author and hyperlink as well as 3-word start and ends of which the tag line is derived. For theory, you must disclose all interps, standard tagline summaries, voters, judge action with implications, as well as RVI and competing interp positions.
-
Any further questions regarding my disclosure policy can be found in the FAQ citation. If your question is not there, contact me ASAP | 904,025 |
365,240 | 379,072 | 2- NOVDEC 1NC | =1NC – Lay Judge=
==C1: Iranian Disaster==
Our Sole Contention is Iranian Escalation
U.S Offensive Cyber Operations will cause a global disaster stemming from Iran in 2 ways
===Link – Conventional Escalation===
The first cause of conflict from OCO’s is full out escalation
====Trump’s new cyber strategy is the groundwork of escalation====
Farrell 19
**Michael Farrell and Tim Starks and Gavin Bade, 7-13-2019, "Trump is rattling sabers in cyberspace — but is the U.S. ready? ," POLITICO, https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/13/trump-cybersecurity-defense-1415650**
The Trump … within those parameters."
====Cyber-attacks between Iran and the U.S are becoming rapidly more frequent and severe====
Abdollah 19
**Tami Abdollah, 6-24-2019, "Iran Increases Cyber Attacks on U.S. Gov't, Infrastructure: Cyber Security Firms," Insurance Journal, https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2019/06/24/530257.htm**
Iran has increased … to the United States."
====Escalating cyber-attacks against Iran risk opening the Pandora’s box of cyber warfare====
Groll 19
**Elias Groll, 9-27-2019, "The U.S.-Iran Standoff Is Militarizing Cyberspaceandnbsp;," Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/27/the-u-s-iran-standoff-is-militarizing-cyberspace/**
Trump is keen … in the real world.
====The U.S has announced to use nuclear and conventional weapons to retaliate against major cyber attacks. This means the line between cyber and war is very thin and escalation is probable.====
Sanger 18
**David Sanger and William Broad, 1-16-2018, "Pentagon Suggests Countering Devastating Cyberattacks With Nuclear Arms," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/16/us/politics/pentagon-nuclear-review-cyberattack-trump.html**
WASHINGTON — A newly … paralyze systems like
====Even conventional war escalates into nuclear war====
Avery 13
John Avery, 9-06-2013, "An Attack On Iran Could Escalate Into Global Nuclear War By John Scales Avery," Counter Currents, https://www.countercurrents.org/avery061113.htm (QUALS: John Avery studied theoretical chemistry at the University of London, and was awarded a Ph.D. there in 1965. He is now Associate Professor, at the Department of Chemistry, University of Copenhagen. He has been the Contact Person in Denmark for Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs. In 1995, this group received the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts.)
Despite the willingness … to all living things.
===Link- Proliferation===
The second cause of conflict from OCO’s is proliferation
====U.S OCO’s revealed major inefficiencies in Iranian uranium enrichment that otherwise would’ve stopped Iranian weaponization.====
Mahony 13
**Jennifer O'Mahony, 5-23-2013, "IAEA confirms: Iran expanding uranium enrichment program," Telegraph, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/10076194/IAEA-confirms-Iran-expanding-uranium-enrichment-program.html**
In a report obtained … it was discovered.
====Now that Iran has the capacity and no reason to hold back, it has begun nuclearization====
Tirone 19
**Jonathan Tirone, 9-15-2019, "Iran’s Nuclear Program," Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/irans-uranium-enrichment**
Iran’s nuclear capabilities … of producing plutonium.
====Israel would start the military conflict with preemptive military strikes that it EMPIRICALLY carries out====
Horschig 19
**Doreen Horschig, 6-20-2019, "Israel could strike first as tensions with Iran flare," Conversation, https://theconversation.com/israel-could-strike-first-as-tensions-with-iran-flare-119146**
"Israel will not allow … world quietly watches.
===Impact===
The impact is nuclear catastrophe
====War with Iran spurs a global nuclear war that causes extinction====
Avery 13
**John Avery, 9-06-2013, "An Attack On Iran Could Escalate Into Global Nuclear War By John Scales Avery," Counter Currents, https://www.countercurrents.org/avery061113.htm **
(QUALS: John Avery studied theoretical chemistry at the University of London, and was awarded a Ph.D. there in 1965. He is now Associate Professor, at the Department of Chemistry, University of Copenhagen. He has been the Contact Person in Denmark for Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs. In 1995, this group received the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts.)
Despite the willingness … all living things. | 904,028 |
365,241 | 378,989 | M4A NEG - C1 Dr Drain, C2 Foreign Aid | Cards:
Dr surplus in squo
Antonelli 19 of Advisory
Ashley Fuoco, 5-14-2019, Does America have a physician shortage—or are our doctors 'just bad at managing time'?, No Publication, https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2019/05/14/physician-shortage
And those predictions certainly are drawn from real evidence. Research has shown that baby boomers are demanding more care as they age. Further, studies suggest that both baby boomers and millennials are in worse health than previous generations, which could mean they'll need comparatively more health care services. But experts question whether that's the whole story However, some research suggests that United States isn't actually facing a physician shortage, and the inefficiency in the health care system is to blame for straining access to care. During a discussion last year, Ezekiel Emanuel, chair of the Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy at the University of Pennsylvania, told Medscape Editor-in-Chief Eric Topol, "If you look through history, everyone is always predicting that we will have this terrible physician shortage. Yes, there are lots of problems: delays in getting an appointment and spot shortages in certain specialties, especially some pediatric subspecialties." However, he continued, "If you look at the issue of primary care doctors, I think the notion of a shortage is greatly exaggerated." Emanuel's reasoning is based on research he and other researchers conducted for a 2017 JAMA viewpoint. They calculated the number of physicians needed to care for the U.S. population, and estimated that the number of full-time primary care physicians at the time, which was slightly more than 388,000, could care for approximately 583 million people if they each had the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's recommended patient panel size of between 1,500 and 2,000 patients. The researchers noted that, at the time, the U.S. population was 240 million, meaning the United States needed just 160,000 primary care physicians with patient panel sizes of 1,500 to care for the population. As such, the U.S. actually had a potential surplus of primary care providers. What is driving the physician-shortage mentality? So if the United States doesn't actually have a physician shortage, why do patients struggle to access care?
25 inc in med school apps
Kowalski 18 of US News
Ilana Kowarski, 12-3-2018, Why It's Hard to Get Into Medical School Despite Doctor Shortages, US News and World Report, https://www.usnews.com/education/best-graduate-schools/top-medical-schools/articles/2018-12-03/why-its-hard-to-get-into-medical-school-despite-doctor-shortages
Hasty says demand for a medical education is "near an all-time high," so the typical premed student should expect to face stiff competition. "People really want to become physicians, and now more than ever," he says. "I would say this is especially true of the millennial generation. And I can tell you that, here at (our school), we hear from high-quality applicants everyday ... and these are people with really high MCAT scores and GPAs, that this is their second year, third year or even fourth year applying to medical schools. And years ago, they would have gotten accepted the first time through, but the demand is just incredible." Statistics from the Association of American Medical Colleges reveal that there were more than 10,000 more applicants seeking admission to a U.S. med school during the 2018-2019 school year than there had been 10 years prior, a roughly 25 percent increase over the 10-year period. Hasty says young people are especially eager to find work that allows them to have a positive impact on society, and the emphasis on science, technology, engineering and math in contemporary U.S. schools has boosted the number of people who want to become doctors. "The current millennial generation, their desire to serve and give back is really incredible," he says, adding that Generation Z, which is just starting to apply to medical school, also shows a strong interest in public service. Hasty also suggests that U.S. high schools and colleges are doing a better job of engaging students in science classes than they had in the past, which is spurring an uptick in interest.
M4A=pay cuts
Rosenberg 19 of Yahoo Finance
Yuval Rosenberg, 07-03-2019, How Doctors Could Lose Under Medicare for All, Yahoo Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/doctors-could-lose-under-medicare-214556468.html
A transition to Medicare for All would mean significant pay cuts for most doctors and health care providers — and could have some unintended consequences, according to a recent analysis in the Journal of the American Medical Association by Harvard's Dr. Zirui Song. Using data from Song’s analysis, Axios illustrated just how steep the cuts might be, even if reimbursement rates are set well above current Medicare rates. Note that the figures below show the change in doctor pay compared to patients now covered by private insurance, not all patients. Private insurance typically reimburses providers at significantly higher rates than Medicare or Medicaid. The pay cuts for doctors and hospitals are a key element of Medicare for All, and one of the main ways proponents of a switch aim to bring down health care costs overall. But Song warns that the cuts could have some dramatic implications. “Reducing commercial prices to the level of Medicare prices would, at first glance and without any adjustment, substantially reduce the total cost of health care in the United States through lower total revenues for physicians and hospitals,” he writes in the JAMA analysis. “However, the assumption that physicians and hospitals would not react as their commercial prices are reduced substantially to Medicare levels is likely unrealistic.”
M4A pays 89 less than priv ins
Masterson 17 of HealthCareDive
Les Masterson, 6-27-2017, CBO reports show private insurers pay physicians, hospitals far more than Medicare, Healthcare Dive, https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/cbo-reports-show-private-insurers-pay-physicians-hospitals-far-more-than-m/445949/
CBO also said Medicare Advantage plans don’t charge much more for out-of-network care compared to in-network care. Private payers charge much more for out-of-network care. In the hospitals report, CBO examined the payment rates for hospital inpatient services for private insurers and Medicare Advantage plans and compared them to Medicare FFS rates. CBO used the same payers in the hospital report. CBO found the average commercial payment rate for hospital admission was $21,400 in 2013, compared to $11,400 for a Medicare FFS patient, which was slightly more than for a Medicare Advantage patient ($10,700). Private insurance rates were 89 higher on average than Medicare FFS rates, according to CBO. Medicare Advantage and Medicare FFS payments to hospitals were nearly identical and they were much lower than private payers. Private insurers’ payments to hospitals varied greatly, while Medicare FFS and Medicare Advantage varied much less. Private insurers prices were about 150 higher than Medicare FFS at the 90th percentile and about 45 higher than FFS at the 10th percentile. Meanwhile, Medicare Advantage was only 6 higher than the average FFS rate at the 90th percentile and only 2 above the 10th percentile.
Us med school expensive
Santiago 20
Andrea Clement Santiago, 1-2-2020, The Pros and Cons of International Medical Schools, Verywell Mind, https://www.verywellmind.com/pros-and-cons-of-international-medical-schools-1736019
Less restrictive requirements, lower tuition costs, and possible U.S. residency opportunities are all favorable aspects of applying to foreign medical schools, particularly in the Caribbean. Consider these factors when figuring out if medical school abroad is the right fit for you. Higher acceptance rates: Many medical schools in the Caribbean accept a much higher percentage of applicants than schools in the U.S. in part due to less restrictive entrance requirements. For schools outside the Caribbean, acceptance rates vary. Broader entrance requirements: GPAs and MCAT scores are typically lower than average among international medical school applicants, making these programs a realistic option to consider for those with lower scores. Less expensive than domestic counterparts: Tuition for international schools is usually cheaper than medical schools in America, which can lessen the burden of student loans and financial stress that many medical students face. U.S. clinical rotation opportunities: In many of the Caribbean schools, the first two years of basic science is done on their campuses overseas, while clinical rotations are done in U.S. hospitals. Though your home school is still overseas, you have the advantage of the same clinical exposure and opportunities as the hospitals' home medical students. Many past students cite this as an advantage in applying to U.S. residencies. Other overseas medical schools allow students U.S. clinical rotation opportunities, though usually on a more case-by-case basis.
201,000 av. of debt for med students
Lane 20 of Nerdwallet
Ryan Lane, 07-07-2020, What Is the Average Medical School Debt? — NerdWallet, NerdWallet, https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/average-medical-school-debt
The average medical school debt for the class of 2019 is $201,490, according to the most recent data from the Association of American Medical Colleges. Those figures include medical school loans, as well as debt from undergraduate studies and other higher education. The total represents a 2.5 increase from the averaged med student debt of $196,520 in the class of 2018. With a $201,490 student loan balance, you’d owe $2,288 a month on the standard, 10-year federal repayment plan, assuming a 6.25 average interest rate. Average medical school debt Seventy-three percent of med school graduates have debt, according to the AAMC. Their balances tend to be larger than other graduate degree holders. But doctors aren’t the only health professionals with outsized student debt. Here’s how the average medical school debt compares to other fields, based on the most recent data available for each:
Lower pay forces doctors out
Newman 19 of Yahoo Finance
Rick Newman,09-23-2019, There aren’t enough doctors for Medicare for all, Yahoo Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/there-arent-enough-doctors-for-medicare-for-all-195947805.html
The government-run health care program supported by Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and a bunch of other Democrats would give every American regular access to doctors and hospitals. Problem is, there wouldn’t be enough of either. Medicare for all, as it’s known, would replace the current patchwork system of private and public insurance programs with a single government program, similar to Medicare, that covers everybody. Most doctors and other caregivers would stay on private sector payrolls, rather than go to work for the government. But for the plan to work, the government would pay caregivers and hospitals less than most private sector insurers pay today. That would force hospital closures and drive doctors out of medicine, at the same demand for health care is surging. “It would cause massive disruption,” says Kenneth Thorpe, chairman of the health policy department at Emory University. “Some physicians would be so frustrated they’d probably just fold up shop. You’d have waiting lines, absolutely.” Bernie Sanders’ Medicare for all plan—which fellow presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren supports—would eliminate most private insurance and enroll everybody in a government plan. Private analyses estimate it would require at least $3 trillion per year in new federal spending. That would require new taxes, along with major cuts in what the nation spends on doctors and hospitals. The Sanders proposal says the government would pay health care providers at current Medicare rates. That would lower payments to doctors by about 30, and payments to hospitals by about 40. “The proposed cuts to providers now working through private insurance would be severe,” writes health economist Charles Blahous of George Mason University’s Mercatus Center. Medicare, for instance, pays hospitals about 90 of their costs on average, which means hospitals lose money on Medicare patients. They make it up, and then some, on patients covered by private insurance, which pays hospitals about 145 of their costs. If all patients were covered under Medicare, every hospital in the country would lose money, on average. Some analysts worry about hospital closures under Medicare for all, especially in rural areas. There are about 1 million physicians in America. Primary-care doctors earn $237,000 per year, on average, while specialists earn $341,000. Most people might think doctors could take a 30 or 40 pay cut and still be doing fine. But medical school costs as much as $250,000, and new graduates often spend years working at low-paid residencies. The expectation of high pay in the future is one reason medical students and young doctors grind it out. Nobody has estimated the number of doctors who would quit under Medicare for all, but it’s normal for any profession to become less popular as financial incentives decline. This would happen as demand for health care rises by 10 or more, since uninsured people would now have coverage and the underinsured would be able to get more care, cheaper. There could be a particular shortage of primary care doctors, already scarce in some areas. “Primary care would be in serious jeopardy,” says Thorpe.
Everyone gets care under m4a
Kliff 19 of Vox
Sarah Kliff, 2-26-2019, Medicare-for-all: Rep. Pramila Jayapal’s new bill, explained, Vox, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/2/26/18239630/medicare-for-all-pramila-jayapal-bill
Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) is introducing the most ambitious Medicare-for-all plan yet — one that envisions a quick transition to a public health plan with a robust set of benefits. The co-chair of the Progressive Caucus is releasing a proposal Wednesday to transition the United States to a single-payer health care system, one in which a single, government-run health plan provides insurance coverage to all Americans. “We mean a complete transformation of our health care system and we mean a system where there are no private insurance companies that provide these core benefits,” Jayapal told reporters Tuesday. “We mean universal care, everybody in, nobody out.” Jayapal’s bill envisions a future where all Americans have health coverage and pay nothing out of pocket when they visit the doctor or hospital. Her plan, the Medicare for All Act of 2019, describes a benefit package that is more generous than what other single-payer countries, like England or Canada, currently offer. The benefits in Jayapal’s bill are even more generous than those included in Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) Medicare-for-all plan.
Wait times increase under m4a
Siegel 19 of USA Today
Marc Siegel, 04-30-2019, Medicare for All government chokehold would be even worse than private insurance: Doctor, USA TODAY, https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/04/30/medicare-for-all-even-worse-than-private-insurance-doctor-column/3617156002/
However, as I dig deeper into a potential single-payer future, it looks less and less appetizing for me and my patients. In the first place, as Medicare changes to single-payer, it would become a more highly regulated restricted insurance that rations care. In other words, it will feel and operate more like Medicaid than Medicare. Waiting lines for procedures, surgeries and treatments would lengthen. According to the 2018 Fraser Institute Report, “Research has repeatedly indicated that wait times for medically necessary treatment are not benign inconveniences. Wait times can, and do, have serious consequences such as increased pain, suffering, and mental anguish. In certain instances, they can also result in poorer medical outcomes — transforming potentially reversible illnesses or injuries into chronic, irreversible conditions, or even permanent disabilities.” If the Sanders plan is enacted, waiting times here will increase, doctors will be paid less for doing more, and we will become more frustrated and less effective. There could also be a worsening doctor shortage, which would compound the problem. Private insurance is flawed, costly and preferable Picture your doctor or her office staff waiting on telephone hold for a distant bureaucrat to approve or deny a catheter-placed $50,000 heart valve for your 90-year-old father. Mine had one because Medicare covered it. But the stretched thin Medicare for All of the future isn’t as likely to say yes. Picture a patient with daily cardiac chest pain or a damaged joint waiting for weeks for the proper doctor or center to perform the procedure.
M4a = too many regulations for Drs
Pipes 20 of the Pacific Research Institute
Sally Pipes, 01-27-2020, Doctors Need A Second Opinion on ‘Medicare for All’, Pacific Research Institute, https://www.pacificresearch.org/doctors-need-a-second-opinion-on-medicare-for-all/
Doctors have seen better days. More than 40 percent of physicians say they’re burnt out, according to a recent survey by Medscape. Over half of the doctors surveyed pointed to bureaucratic tasks as the leading contributor to burnout. One-third said long hours were a major stressor; a similar share pointed to insufficient pay. Sixteen percent said government regulations were to blame. “Medicare-for-all” would exacerbate these problems. For starters, it would drown doctors in regulations and bureaucratic tasks. The “Medicare-for-all” proposal offered by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., would establish “uniform reporting standards” that would order providers to report information on procedures, prices, and outcomes to the federal government. Doctors also better prepare to work longer hours for less money. “Medicare-for-all” would make health care free at the point of access. That would encourage Americans to consume more care than they currently do. Providers would have to spend more time on the clock to keep up with demand. And they’d receive less money for each hour they log. If “Medicare-for-all” adheres to Medicare’s existing payment schedule, then doctors would receive 9 percent less for every office visit and 60 percent less for every emergency department visit, relative to average private in-network rates, according to one analysis published by JAMA, a medical journal.
Decreased pay = close hospitals/end drs
Newman 19 of Yahoo Finance
Rick Newman,09-23-2019, There aren’t enough doctors for Medicare for all, Yahoo Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/there-arent-enough-doctors-for-medicare-for-all-195947805.html
The government-run health care program supported by Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and a bunch of other Democrats would give every American regular access to doctors and hospitals. Problem is, there wouldn’t be enough of either. Medicare for all, as it’s known, would replace the current patchwork system of private and public insurance programs with a single government program, similar to Medicare, that covers everybody. Most doctors and other caregivers would stay on private sector payrolls, rather than go to work for the government. But for the plan to work, the government would pay caregivers and hospitals less than most private sector insurers pay today. That would force hospital closures and drive doctors out of medicine, at the same demand for health care is surging. “It would cause massive disruption,” says Kenneth Thorpe, chairman of the health policy department at Emory University. “Some physicians would be so frustrated they’d probably just fold up shop. You’d have waiting lines, absolutely.” Bernie Sanders’ Medicare for all plan—which fellow presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren supports—would eliminate most private insurance and enroll everybody in a government plan. Private analyses estimate it would require at least $3 trillion per year in new federal spending. That would require new taxes, along with major cuts in what the nation spends on doctors and hospitals.
shortage happening rn in UK due to dr drain
Forbes 19
Sally Pipes, 4-1-2019, Britain's Version Of 'Medicare For All' Is Struggling With Long Waits For Care, Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/sallypipes/2019/04/01/britains-version-of-medicare-for-all-is-collapsing/#167c671336b8
Many Clinical Commissioning Groups are also rationing hip and knee replacements, glucose monitors for diabetes patients, and hernia surgery by placing the same "limited clinical value" label on them. Patients face long wait times and rationing of care in part because the NHS can't attract nearly enough medical professionals to meet demand. At the end of 2018, more than 39,000 nursing spots were unfilled. That's a vacancy rate of more than 10. Among medical staff, nearly 9,000 posts were unoccupied. These shortages could explode in the years to come. In 2018, the Royal College of General Practitioners found that more than 750 practices could close within the next five years, largely because heavy workloads are pushing older doctors to retire early. The NHS recently announced that, in a desperate attempt to shore up its doctor workforce, it would pay British general practitioners working abroad more than $24,000 in "relocation support" to come back to the country. The Service is also trying to encourage doctors to come out of retirement.
44000 drs out by 2050
FTI 20
No Author, 01-2020, Medicare for All And the Future of America’s Healthcare Workforce, FTI Consulting, https://www.fticonsulting.com/~/media/Files/us-files/insights/reports/2020/jan/medicare-future-americas-health-care-workforce.pdf
Key Findings • Medicare for All, when fully implemented, could result in a nationwide loss of 44,693 physicians by 2050 relative to current projections. • By 2050, urban and rural areas alike could see a decrease of 5.4 in the supply of physicians. • The impact of Medicare for All on the primary care workforce would be particularly acute, resulting in a loss of 10,286 primary care physicians by 2050. • Shifting the entire U.S. population to Medicare would result in an estimated 16 cut to spending on patient care provided by physicians. • Medicare for All’s reimbursement cuts would result in 90 of hospitals across the country running consistent deficits, increasing the risk of hospital closures nationwide and negatively impacting the health care workforce. • The nursing workforce, already projected to reach shortage levels in seven states by 2030,3 could see a reduction of 1.2 million nationally by 2050 under Medicare for All.
US drs care for 1200-1900 people each
Rappleye 16
Emily Rappleye, 7-15-2016, How many patients is too many? Study debunks industry standard, Becker’s Hospital Review, https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/hospital-physician-relationships/how-many-patients-is-too-many-study-debunks-industry-standard.html
The researchers traced this commonly accepted standard back to an article published by Catherine Tantau and Mark Murray, MD, in Family Practice Management in 2000 that speculated 2,500 patients was a reasonable upper range for a panel. However, the analysis found this estimate was just that — speculation. It was not based on data or actual panel sizes. Based on a review of studies on practice settings in the U.S. and abroad, the researchers determined the average actual panel size ranges from 1,200 to 1,900 patients per physician. "Whether these are small enough to allow for optimal productivity, quality of care, and physician and patient satisfaction is unknown," the researchers wrote in their analysis, which was published by the Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine. In boutique or concierge practices, which offer patients more personal time with physicians, the panel size is roughly 900 to 1,000 patients, according to the report. But could physicians feasibly take on more patients to reach the "standard" 2,500-patient panel? According to the analysis, no. The researchers suggested it would be nearly impossible to handle a panel size of 2,500 patients — a physician would have to work 21.7 hours per day to deliver comprehensive, quality care to a panel of that size.
Drs decrease mortality
Rapaport 19 of Reuters
Lisa Rapaport, 2-18-2019, Supply of primary care doctors linked with mortality rates, U.S., https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-primary-care/supply-of-primary-care-doctors-linked-with-mortality-rates-idUSKCN1Q71NC
Overall in the U.S., the total number of primary care physicians rose from 196,014 in 2005 to 204,419 in 2015, the study found. But because of disproportionate losses of providers in rural areas, the average number of primary care physicians for every 100,000 people in the population declined from 46.6 to 41.1 during the same period. Each 10 additional primary care physician per 100,000 people was associated with a 51.5 day increase in life expectancy, the study also found. Every 10 extra primary care doctors was also tied to declines of up to 1.4 percent in mortality rates from common causes like cancer, heart disease and respiratory disorders. “Greater supply of primary care physicians appeared to increase the chances that a person would be treated for cardiovascular disease risk factors like high blood pressure or high cholesterol, or caught early for major cancers like breast cancer or colon cancer,” said lead study author Dr. Sanjay Basu of Stanford University in California.
M4A Costs A Ton OF Money
Holahan 18 of the Urban Institute
John Holahan, 10-2018, Urban Institute, https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/99151/estimating_the_cost_of_a_single-payer_plan_0.pdf
In June 2018, the Mercatus Center at George Mason University released a report in which they found that the Medicare for All Act of 2017,1 introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders, would increase federal spending by $32 trillion dollars over its first 10 years of implementation (Blahous 2018). The Medicare for All Act (MFA) would provide universal health insurance coverage with no premiums, no deductibles or other forms of cost sharing (with the possible exception of modest beneficiary contributions for nongeneric prescription drugs and biologics), broad covered benefits, and tight constraints on provider payment rates. The new program would be fully tax financed. The Mercatus Center report received considerable press attention.2 Frequently, media reports on the Mercatus report mention that the results are similar to those found by the Urban Institute’s 2016 analysis of Sanders’s presidential health reform proposal (Holahan et al. 2016). In that study, we estimated that Sanders’s presidential proposal would increase federal health expenditures by $32.6 trillion dollars over 10 years.
Taxes not enough to fund
The CRFB 19
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, 10-22-2019, Would Medicare for All Require a Middle-Class Tax Hike?, http://www.crfb.org/blogs/would-medicare-all-require-middle-class-tax-hike
These costs come from expanding coverage, increasing benefit generosity, and – most significantly – eliminating current premiums, deductibles, and copayments, which are partially offset by reductions in provider, drug, and administrative costs. Advocates of Medicare for All have generally called for financing the costs through tax increases. However, there is disagreement over whether the tax hikes would apply to the middle class. For example, former Vice President Joe Biden has argued Medicare for All "will require middle-class taxes to go up, not down," and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has said "I do think it is appropriate to acknowledge that taxes will go up" (though premiums and other costs will fall). On the other hand, Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) has said her "vision for Medicare For All does not include a middle-class tax hike," and Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has largely evaded the question by simply saying "costs are going to go up for the wealthiest Americans, for big corporations…and hard-working middle-class families are going to see their costs going down.” Others outside of the presidential field have made even bolder claims. For example, Chris Talgo of The Federalist has argued that "tax burdens would double, and for tens of millions of families, the increased taxes would far outweigh not needing to pay for health insurance," while economist Gabriel Zucman says that "Medicare for All would cut taxes for the vast majority of workers" (emphasis added). Taxes on the Rich Cannot Cover the Full Cost of Medicare for All While there are numerous policy options available to finance the costs of Medicare for All, there does not appear to be any plausible path to finance it with tax increases on just wealthy individuals and businesses.1 To get a sense of how difficult it would be to raise $3 trillion per year from high-income earners alone, it may be helpful to understand how much income is available for taxation. Based on estimates from the Joint Committee of Taxation (with adjustments based on data from the Institute for Taxation and Economic Policy), tax units making over $200,000 per year will make about $4 trillion in after-tax income this year, while tax units with income above $500,000 will make about $2 trillion. These figures suggest that paying for Medicare for All from high earners alone would require an average tax rate close to or above 100 percent for higher earners. It would be impossible to achieve this revenue with an income tax alone.2
Must cut other programs to fund M4A
The CRFB 20
CRFB, 3-17-2020, Choices for Financing Medicare for All, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, http://www.crfb.org/papers/choices-financing-medicare-all
Though most of the federal cost of Medicare for All would come from replacing private spending with public spending, these costs would nonetheless need to be financed through higher taxes, lower spending, more borrowing, or some combination of the three. As a practical matter, a plan to finance Medicare for All would likely rely on a combination of policies – as has been proposed by the Presidential candidates who currently support Medicare for All.4 To understand the magnitude of and trade-offs associated with these policies, however, it is helpful to consider the necessary size of each choice in isolation. For estimating purposes, we assume Medicare for All will cost $30 trillion and also offer estimates assuming costs as low as $25 trillion and as high as $35 trillion. Based on these assumptions, we estimate that policymakers could finance a Medicare for All plan over the next decade in any of the following ways:5 Impose a 32 percent payroll tax. Currently, most wage income is subject to a 15.3 percent payroll tax divided evenly between workers and employers to fund Social Security and Medicare. Wages above $138,000 are subject to either a 2.9 percent or 3.8 percent payroll tax to fund Medicare. We estimate a new 32 percent payroll tax, divided evenly between workers and employers and applied to all wages, would raise roughly $30 trillion over a decade. An equivalent amount of revenue could be raised with a 23 percent payroll tax on the employee side only or a 48 percent tax on the employer side.6,7 Under different cost assumptions, the payroll tax rate could be as low as 26 percent and as high as 39 percent, split evenly between employers and employees. Establish a 25 percent income surtax on adjusted gross income (AGI) above the standard deduction. Under current law, households pay taxes on their income under a progressive rate structure that ranges from 10 percent to 37 percent, with preferential rates for long-term capital gains and qualified dividends as well as deductions for mortgage interest, charitable giving, state and local taxes up to $10,000, pass-through business income, and other purposes. There is also a standard deduction of $12,400 for individuals and $24,800 for married couples. We estimate a 25 percent of AGI income surtax above the standard deduction would raise roughly $30 trillion over a decade.8,9 This surtax would effectively increase the bottom income tax rate from 10 percent to 35 percent, the top income tax rate from 37 percent to 62 percent, and the top ordinary capital gains and dividends rate from 20 percent to 45 percent. Under different cost assumptions, the necessary income surtax could be as low as 20 percent and as high as 30 percent. Enact a 42 percent value-added tax (VAT). Whereas most developed countries raise a substantial share of their revenue through a tax on consumption – known as a VAT – the United States only taxes consumption broadly through state and local sales taxes. A VAT could be introduced at the federal level to finance Medicare for All. Based on estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), we project a broad-based VAT of 42 percent would raise about $30 trillion over a decade. The first-order effect of this VAT would be to increase the prices of most goods and services by 42 percent; the VAT would thus represent 30 percent of costs on a tax-inclusive basis, which is more comparable to an equivalent income or payroll tax rate increase. Under different cost assumptions, the necessary VAT could be as low as 35 percent and as high as 49 percent. Importantly, a VAT can be designed in different ways, which could change the required tax rate. Require a mandatory public premium averaging $7,500 per capita – the equivalent of $12,000 per individual not otherwise on public insurance. Currently, most Americans are charged health insurance premiums – the majority of which are paid by employers on their behalf. Though current Medicare for All proposals call for ending premiums, policymakers could consider financing Medicare for All through mandatory fixed-dollar payments to the federal government. These payments would be a form of a head tax but could resemble premiums in a number of ways. For example, they could vary based on household size and could be paid in part or in whole by employers.10 They could also be reduced or waived for some individuals, perhaps based on income. In 2021, we estimate those premiums would need to average about $7,500 per capita or $20,000 per household (including single-person households) if applied to all individuals, including retirees, children, and low-income individuals. Fully exempting everyone who would otherwise be on Medicare, Medicaid, or CHIP would increase the premiums by over 60 percent to more than $12,000 per individual. Under different cost assumptions, the necessary premium would be as low as $6,000 per capita or as high as $9,000. More than double all individual and corporate income tax rates. Under current law, ordinary income is taxed under a progressive rate structure with a bottom rate of 10 percent and a top rate of 37 percent, while long-term capital gains and qualified dividends are taxed at a top rate of 20 percent (plus a 3.8 percent surtax) and corporate income at a rate of 21 percent. Assuming capital gains are taxed at death and pass-through income is no longer deductible,11 we estimate that doubling all individual income tax rates would raise $20 trillion to $25 trillion over a decade, and doubling the corporate rate would raise about $2 trillion. Some additional revenue would be needed on top of these increases to reach $30 trillion in total revenue. This option differs from the income surtax in a number of ways, especially because it would represent a much smaller tax increase for lower- and middle-income taxpayers. Under this scenario, the bottom ordinary income tax rate would be raised to 20 percent, the top ordinary rate would be 74 percent, capital gains would be taxed at a top rate of 40 percent, and the corporate tax rate would be 42 percent. Reduce non-health federal spending by 80 percent. The federal government is projected to spend $61 trillion over the next decade, including $17 trillion on health care and $6 trillion on interest costs. We estimate that financing the full cost of Medicare for All with spending cuts would require cutting the remaining federal budget by 80 percent.12 Cuts of this magnitude are unrealistically large and certainly could not be imposed on a short timeline. For illustrative purposes, an 80 percent cut to Social Security would mean reducing the average new benefit from about $18,000 per year to $3,600 per year, and an 80 percent cut to the military would mean, among other things, reducing the number of soldiers and officers from 1.3 million today to 270,000. Under different cost assumptions, necessary spending cuts could be as low as 65 percent or as high as 95 percent. More than double the national debt to 203 percent of the economy. Federal debt held by the public currently totals about $17 trillion, or 80 percent of GDP. Under current law, debt is projected to reach 98 percent of GDP by 2030. Assuming no changes in projected interest rates or economic growth, deficit-financing Medicare for All over the next decade would require nearly $34 trillion of new borrowing including interest, which is the equivalent of 105 percent of GDP by 2030. As a result, debt would rise to 203 percent of GDP, more than double its currently projected level. This would put debt in 2030 at almost five times its historic average of 42 percent and nearly twice the historic record of 106 percent (set after World War II). Under different cost assumptions, debt could rise by as little as 89 percent of GDP and as much as 124 percent of GDP. Debt would continue to grow rapidly beyond 2030. Impose impossibly high taxes on high earners, corporations, and the financial sector. There is not enough annual income available among higher earners to finance the full cost of Medicare for All. On a static basis, even increasing the top two income tax rates (applying to individuals making over $207,000 per year and couples making over $414,000 per year) to 100 percent would not raise $30 trillion over a decade. In reality, a tax increase that large would actually lose revenue because it would institute marginal tax rates above 100 percent when other taxes are incorporated – effectively requiring people to pay rather than be paid to work, earn business income, or sell capital assets. We previously found that an extremely aggressive package of tax hikes on high earners, corporations, and the financial sector might cover 35 percent of the $30 trillion cost of Medicare for All (or 31 to 44 percent under different cost estimates). Our very rough estimates showed that over the next decade raising the top two individual and pass-through rates to 70 percent would raise about $2 trillion, phasing out most tax breaks for higher earners (assuming that 70 percent top rate) could very generously raise another $2 trillion, and doubling the corporate tax rate would raise $2 trillion. We also found that a wealth tax or “mark-to-market” capital gains taxation could raise $3 trillion, and the combination of a financial transaction tax and a tax on large financial institutions could raise about $1 trillion. Other taxes on high earners and the wealthy could raise some additional funds. Enact a combination of approaches. Rather than identify a single revenue source to finance Medicare for All, policymakers could combine several options. For example, one could combine a 16 percent employer-side payroll tax with a public premium averaging $3,000 per capita, $5 trillion of taxes on high earners and corporations, and $1 trillion of spending cuts. Other small options, such as higher excise taxes on alcohol, tobacco, or sugary drinks, could also be included, as could policies to require or encourage state governments to contribute to offsetting the cost of Medicare for All. Adopting smaller versions of several policies may prove more viable than adopting any one policy in full. While the financing options above are quite large in magnitude, their sizes shrink under cheaper versions of Medicare for All. The low end of our cost range effectively assumes aggressive efforts to reduce provider and prescription drug costs, but theoretically further efforts could be undertaken. Our Budget Offsets Bank incudes numerous options to reduce the cost of traditional Medicare; some of these options would save much more if applied to a comprehensive Medicare for All program (see Senator Warren’s Medicare for All plan, for example).
Cutting Foreign Aid is popular
Robillard 13 of Politico
Kevin Robillard, 2-22-2013, Poll: Most only want foreign aid cuts, POLITICO, https://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/poll-most-only-want-foreign-aid-cuts-087948
Of 19 options for cutting government spending, only one — reducing foreign aid — was supported by more than 40 percent of Americans, according to a poll released Friday. The widespread rejection of most ideas to slash spending in the poll from the Pew Research Center shows the difficulty of translating a popular GOP message — the federal budget needs to be shrunk down to size — into political reality. Even on foreign aid, only 48 percent want to cut, compared with 49 percent who want to increase funding or keep it at the same level. It also displays the difficulty of replacing the $1.2 trillion in spending cuts scheduled to hit March 1. It also displays the difficulty of replacing the $1.2 trillion in spending cuts scheduled to hit March 1. While both Republicans and Democrats say they want to avoid the across-the-board slashes in defense and domestic spending, negotiations are at a standstill and an agreement on replacement cuts could be elusive.
Americans prioritize domestic spending
Hanania 17 of the CGA
Dina Hanania, 11-14-2017, Americans Support Foreign Aid, but Oppose Paying for It, Chicago Council on Global Affairs, https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/publication/americans-support-foreign-aid-oppose-paying-it
In 2015 the United States spent $39 billion in foreign aid to other countries, including military assistance, representing 1.3 percent of the federal budget. President Trump’s budget proposal this spring cut foreign aid to other nations by over one-third. Data from the 2017 Chicago Council Survey shows that Americans view spending on domestic programs as a higher priority than foreign aid. However, majorities of the American public support specific foreign aid policies and see aid as helpful for US foreign relations. Because it’s a lower priority, majorities think aid to other countries should be cut, but they also overestimate how much of the budget is actually pegged for foreign aid. Domestic Spending is the Priority, but Support for Foreign Aid is Strong The American public’s view of the benefits of foreign aid is complicated; Americans support aid programs but would like to cut aid spending and have mixed feelings about its impact. Despite majority support for a spectrum of foreign aid programs, Americans have consistently prioritized domestic spending over foreign assistance in the US federal budget. A majority of Americans would like to see expanded federal spending on education, healthcare, and social security and a plurality feel the same about defense spending. Of six federal programs—social security, education, healthcare, defense spending, military aid, and economic aid—respondents prefer cutting spending on military aid and economic aid.
US foreign aid good, keeps ppl from starving
Werft 17 of Global Citizen
Meghan Werft, 7-25-2017, This Is How Many People US Foreign Aid Helps Around the World, Global Citizen, https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/people-helped-by-us-foreign-aid/
The impact of US foreign aid is massive. The US government is the largest donor of foreign aid in the world, with the farthest-reaching effects and ability to improve lives. Today, US foreign aid has saved the lives of billions since government assistance programs began after World War II. But that could all change this year. President Donald Trump has proposed cutting aid 32 in next year’s budget, and the House of Representatives recently called for cutting it by 17.2. Congress will decide by October how much of the budget to devote to helping the rest of the world, making it an urgent issue for global citizens who care about ending extreme poverty and hunger. “I am alive today because of the US government,” Thabani Maphosa, a former recipient of food assistance in Zimbabwe who is now in charge of World Vision’s food assistance programs, said in May. Maphosa is just one of the 3 billion people kept from starvation through US-funded food assistance programs. But US foreign aid does more than feed the world’s hungry. US foreign aid covers funding for everything from niche programs in places like Kosovo, where 400 girls are learning to code to fight sexual harassment, to delivering 1.9 billion medications that saved 743 million people from tropical diseases, like trachoma, a devastating disease that leave children blind if left untreated. “Protecting Americans, preventing epidemics, strengthening markets, saving lives: aid delivers phenomenal benefits, and for a bargain,” Bill Gates wrote in an op-ed for TIME in March. US foreign aid accounts for just 1 of the total federal budget, but according to Gates, it’s the best money spent by Americans.
US prioritizes infra
Munson 19 of Brookings
George Ingram, 10-2-2019, What every American should know about US foreign aid, Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/what-every-american-should-know-about-u-s-foreign-aid/
The rise of China and its challenge to the Western-led, liberal world order is the most significant global development that could impact Washington’s decisions on foreign assistance. The BUILD Act gained much of its support because it was framed as a response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. USAID’s “Clear Choice” framework describes collaboration in the energy, digital, and infrastructure sectors.5 The framework emphasizes programs that are directly responsive to host country needs and policy choices, providing a contrast to China’s authoritarian model that produces strategic debt and dependence. This positive but realistic approach to the China challenge is still nascent at USAID and not even that far along at the State Department and other critical national security agencies. It has yet to have an impact on either presidential budget requests or congressional appropriations. With both parties in Congress growing increasingly skeptical of China’s policies and plans, “Clear Choice” or an analogous approach will likely emerge as a substantive, bipartisan legislative initiative regardless of who wins the Executive Branch in 2020.
Infra = growth
Badre 15 of the World Economic Forum
Bertrand Badré, 9-25-2015, Why infrastructure investment is key to ending poverty, World Economic Forum, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/10/why-infrastructure-investment-is-key-to-ending-poverty/
A lack of infrastructure comes at an enormous economic and social cost. Over 1.1 billion people — almost 16 of the world’s population — still have no access to electricity. About 663 million people worldwide lack access to clean water, and 2.4 billion people do not have adequate sanitation. And one third of the world’s population is not served by an all-weather road. Infrastructure is the backbone of any country, generating jobs, improving the quality of life for the poor and boosting economic growth. As I’ve blogged before, such investment is integral to poverty alleviation. While attending the World Infrastructure Summit in Barcelona this week, I heard many participants reinforce the message that we need global solutions to tackle this deficit. We must leverage both public and private sector funding to respond to the world’s immense infrastructure needs. Multilateral development banks are uniquely placed to assist countries in closing the long-term financing gap. They can help identify areas of market failure and provide the necessary incentives to bring in the private sector. | 903,927 |
365,242 | 379,095 | 0 - Disclosure | Interpretation: Debaters must disclose all constructive positions, on the page with their name and the school they attend, on the 2019-2020 NDCA PF wiki on open source with the full text of cards with underlining, tags, and cites after the round in which they read them.
Interpretation: Debaters must create a separate citation for each constructive position on their 2019-2020 NDCA PF wiki page. To clarify, you can't make cite entries labelled by round like "R1 Yale NC."
Interpretation: Debaters must disclose disclosure interpretations on the 2019-2020 NDCA PF wiki
Interpretation: Debaters must, on the page with their name and the school they attend, disclose all taglines, full citations, and the first and last three words of the pieces of evidence read in their cases on the 2019-2020 PF NDCA wiki at least 30 minutes before the round if they have read that case before.
Interpretation: Debaters must disclose round reports on the 2019-2020 NDCA PF wiki, on the page with their name and the school they attend, for every round they have debated this season. Round reports disclose which positions (AC, NC, K, T, Theory, etc.) were read/gone for in every speech.
Interpretation: If debaters disclose full text, they must not post the full text of the cards in the cite box, but must upload an open source document with the full text of their cards. To clarify, you don't have to disclose highlighting or underlining, you just need an open source document with minimally the full, un-underlined text of cards
Interpretation: For each position on their corresponding 2019-20 NDCA PF wiki page, debaters must either disclose a summary of each analytic argument in their cases or the entire argument, either in the cite box or in an open-source doc.
Interpretation: Debaters may not add themselves as competitors under a different school name on the 2019-2020 NDCA PF wiki.
Interpretation: Debaters must disclose all previously read constructive positions (cases, off-cases) on their NDCA wiki page with the tags, full cites, and the full text of all evidence at least 30 minutes before round. | 904,057 |
365,243 | 379,122 | 1 - set col | opensource | 904,083 |
365,244 | 379,153 | B-CC Disclosure Interps | Intepretation: debaters must disclose previously broken cases on the NDCA PF wiki at least 30 minutes before the round.
Interpretation: debaters must disclose previously broken cases under their correct taproom entry name on the NDCA PF wiki at least 30 minutes before the round. | 904,191 |
365,245 | 379,162 | Tab N Dab NC 1 Stabilizers Education | Contention One is Stability.
Means-tested welfare programs serve a unique purpose in the economy, that of an automatic-stabilizer.
Rubin, R. (2017, March 10). Why hurting the poor will hurt the economy. Retrieved May 23, 2020, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-anti-poverty-programs-congress-wants-to-cut-are-crucial-to-the-economy/2017/03/10/5359b7e0-0509-11e7-b1e9-a05d3c21f7cf_story.html
These programs serve as
TO
and helping the economy recover.
Unfortunately, a Universal Basic Income could not serve the same function.
Ortiz, I., Behrendt, C., Acuña-Ulate, A., and Nguyen, Q. A. (2018). Universal Basic Income proposals in light of ILO standards: Key issues and global costing. Retrieved May 23, 2020, from https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/~-~~-~-ed_protect/~-~~-~-soc_sec/documents/publication/wcms_648602.pdf
From an economic perspective, UBI does not
TO
go up or down in a downturn.
By massively increasing the stimulus they provide whenever the economy slumps, automatic-stabilizers drastically shorten recessions.
Lee, V., and Sheiner, L. (2019, July 02). What are automatic stabilizers? Retrieved May 23, 2020, from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/07/02/what-are-automatic-stabilizers/
Examining economic stabilization policy
TO
provided by discretionary fiscal policy.
This stimulus is crucial to the recovery of our economy in all future recessions.
Stone, C. (2015, October 23). It Could Have Been So Much Worse. Retrieved May 23, 2020, from https://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/2015/10/23/the-great-recession-would-have-been-much-worse-without-stimulus-tarp
that without the full set of federal responses, the
TO
rather than 10 percent
Removing automatic stabilizers has the opposite effect.
Reis, R., and McKay, A. (2012, August). The role of automatic stabilizers in the U.S. business cycle?. Retrieved May 23, 2020, from https://economics.yale.edu/sites/default/files/mckay-130402.pdf
if the automatic stabilizers were
TO
would be about 7 more volatile.
This volatility is devastating.
Stephen M. Miller. "The effect of growth volatility on income inequality." University of Nevada, Las Vegas Tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw. 2014. Web. 24 Jan. 2018. https://sci-hub.tw/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.11.020
growth volatility affects the distribution
TO
exchange for a constant wage,
AND
a 1-percent increase in
TO
1.33 increase in inequality.
Bezruchka 14 of the Boston Review:
Bezruchka, S. (2019, July 31). Inequality Kills. Retrieved May 23, 2020, from http://bostonreview.net/us/stephen-bezruchka-inequality-kills
There is growing evidence that the
TO
our very high-income inequality.
Contention Two is Accessing Education
Parrott 17 of the CBPP:
Parrott, S. (2017, October 11). Pell Grants - a Key Tool for Expanding College Access and Economic Opportunity - Need Strengthening, Not Cuts. Retrieved May 23, 2020, from https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/pell-grants-a-key-tool-for-expanding-college-access-and-economic-opportunity
Pell Grants are awarded to
TO
improve college completion rates.
RLIS funding is crucial for rural schools.
Texas Education Agency. (n.d.). Title V, Part B - Rural Education Initiative or REAP. Retrieved May 23, 2020, from https://tea.texas.gov/finance-and-grants/grants/essa-program/title-v-part-b-rural-education-initiative-or-reap
use RLIS funds to
TO
Learners and Immigrant Students
These language instruction programs are crucial for the millions of immigrants they assist.
Lunga, W., Bislimi, F., Momani, F., Nouns, I., and Sobane, K. (2018, July 24). Barriers to access to education for migrant children. Retrieved May 23, 2020, from https://www.g20-insights.org/policy_briefs/barriers-to-access-to-education-for-migrant-children/
When migrant children enrol in
TO
language they do not understand.
Callahan 10 of the NCBI:
Callahan, R., Wilkinson, L., Muller, C., and Frisco, M. (2009, May 1). ESL Placement and Schools: Effects on Immigrant Achievement. Retrieved May 23, 2020, from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2898206/
ESL placement has a significant, positive effect
TO
significantly lower rate of course failure
The educational access provided by both the RLIS and Pell Grants is absolutely critical.
Kolesnikova, N. (2017, November 20). The Return to Education Isn't Calculated Easily: St. Louis Fed. Retrieved May 23, 2020, from https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/january-2010/the-return-to-education-isnt-calculated-easily
each additional year of education
TO
percent increase in hourly earnings. | 904,202 |
365,246 | 379,148 | B-CC Disclosure Interp | Intepretation: debaters must disclose previously broken cases on the PF wiki at least 30 minutes before the round. | 904,186 |
365,247 | 379,131 | Gulf TOC FLOW AC 1 | Contention One is Making Love, Not War:
Our current strategy in the Middle East has the region headed towards calamity.
Bolan, Christopher J. “The US Is Trying to Restore Deterrence in the Gulf. That Won't Be Enough.” Defense One, 6 Oct. 2019, www.defenseone.com/ideas/2019/10/us-trying-restore-deterrence-gulf-wont-be-enough/160394/.
The United States’ ability to deter
TO
careen into war.
AND
a failure to address the basic
TO
long-term security of the Gulf.”
The reason is recklessness.
Watts, S., Priebe, M., Frederick, B., Kavannagh, J., and Povlock, M. (2018). U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict. Retrieved March 28, 2020, from https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1900/RR1906/RAND_RR1906.pdf
U.S. commitments and troop
TO
disputes, or even initiating conflicts
Luckily, withdrawing our troops can reduce tensions and foster peace.
Tisdall, Simon. “Why Instinct and Ideology Tell Trump to Get out of the Middle East.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 11 Jan. 2020, www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/11/why-instinct-and-ideology-tell-trump-to-get-out-of-the-middle-east-suleimani-iran?fbclid=IwAR06-cRXalB16uEvdS5-eTrWU-UWpSh-_MbpPdEqgp_vPorzgXCvdGovspg.
Without the Americans to
TO
Yemen would be less likely.
Luck 20 of the CSM:
Luck, Taylor. “Iran Crisis: Why Gulf Arabs Increasingly See US as a Liability.” The Christian Science Monitor, The Christian Science Monitor, 8 Jan. 2020, www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2020/0108/Iran-crisis-Why-Gulf-Arabs-increasingly-see-US-as-a-liability.
The Gulf’s dramatic turnabout and push
TO
only way forward with Iran.
Contention Two is Leaving on Our Own Terms:
Lawlor and Wallace 20 of the ISW:
Lawlor, Katherine, and Brandon Wallace. “Iran's Proxies Accelerate Soleimani's Campaign to Compel U.S. Withdrawal from Iraq.” Institute for the Study of War, Institute for the Study of War, 2 Apr. 2020, www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/irans-proxies-accelerate-soleimanis-campaign-compel-us-withdrawal-iraq.
Iran continues to escalate
TO
that it remains undeterred.
Pfaff 20 of the Atlantic Council:
Pfaff, Anthony, and Barbara C Slavin. “Amid COVID-19, Iraq Remains US-Iran Battleground.” Atlantic Council, Atlantic Council, 20 Mar. 2020, www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/amid-covid-19-iraq-remains-us-iran-battleground/.
The current tit for tat
TO
demonstrate against US presence.
Lawlor and Wallace 20:
Lawlor, Katherine, and Brandon Wallace. “Iran's Proxies Accelerate Soleimani's Campaign to Compel U.S. Withdrawal from Iraq.” Institute for the Study of War, Institute for the Study of War, 2 Apr. 2020,
Iran and its proxies
TO
to curtail the proxy militias.
Lawlor and Wallace 20:
Lawlor, Katherine, and Brandon Wallace. “Iran's Proxies Accelerate Soleimani's Campaign to Compel U.S. Withdrawal from Iraq.” Institute for the Study of War, Institute for the Study of War, 2 Apr. 2020,
Iraqis will likely percieve
TO
troops to remain in Iraq.
Slavin 20 of the Atlantic Council:
Pfaff, Anthony, and Barbara C Slavin. “Amid COVID-19, Iraq Remains US-Iran Battleground.” Atlantic Council, Atlantic Council, 20 Mar. 2020, www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/amid-covid-19-iraq-remains-us-iran-battleground/.
A US exit from
TO
my view, now inevitable.
It is far better we leave willingly than be removed.
Fritze, John. “Donald Trump Threatens Iraq with Sanctions, Says US Won't Leave Unless 'They Pay Us Back' for Air Base.” USA Today, Gannett Satellite Information Network, 7 Jan. 2020, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/01/05/donald-trump-threatens-iraq-sanctions-expel-us-troops/2821255001/.
President Donald Trump threatened
TO
moves to expel U.S. troops
Such sanctions would be horrific.
Cortright, David. “A Hard Look at Iraq Sanctions.” The Nation, 15 Nov. 2001, www.thenation.com/article/archive/hard-look-iraq-sanctions/.
studies on sanctions in Iraq
TO
to be 227,000.
With the coronavirus presently ravaging Iraq, the number of casualties is sure to be far higher.
Osman, Nadda. “Coronavirus: Activists Launch 'Digital Protest' to End US Sanctions on Iran.” Middle East Eye, Middle East Eye, 25 Mar. 2020, www.middleeasteye.net/news/coronavirus-iran-activists-digital-protest-us-sanctions.
Iranians can’t buy or make
TO
will be lost to Covid-19.”
Contention three is reigning in Israel.
Tisdall 19 finds:
Tisdall, Simon. “Why Instinct and Ideology Tell Trump to Get out of the Middle East.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 11 Jan. 2020, www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/11/why-instinct-and-ideology-tell-trump-to-get-out-of-the-middle-east-suleimani-iran?fbclid=IwAR06-cRXalB16uEvdS5-eTrWU-UWpSh-_MbpPdEqgp_vPorzgXCvdGovspg.
a symbolic weakening of America’s
TO
the country was not abandoned.
The creation of such a mutual defence treaty would be a major boon for stability in the region.
Lappin, Yaakov, et al. “Is Now the Right Time for a US-Israel Mutual Defense Pact?” JNS.org, 8 Dec. 2019, www.jns.org/is-it-time-for-a-us-israel-mutual-defense-pact/.
the pact would force
TO
a potential American veto.
Without it, the risks are extremely high.
Allinson, Tom. “Israel-Iran Conflict to Be Major Middle East Issue in 2020: DW: 02.01.2020.” DW.COM, 1 Mar. 2020, www.dw.com/en/israel-iran-conflict-to-be-major-middle-east-issue-in-2020/a-51600787.
Despite their aggressive rhetoric
TO
and more direct confrontation,”
Conflict between Iran and Israel would be absolutely devastating.
Oren, Michael. “The Coming Middle East Conflagration.” The Atlantic, Atlantic Media Company, 5 Nov. 2019, www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/11/israel-preparing-open-war/601285/.
Rockets, many carrying tons of
TO
as high as 4,000.
This would entail the suffering of millions.
Turse, Nick. “What Would Happen If Israel Nuked Iran.” Mother Jones, The Foundation for National Progress, 25 June 2017, www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/05/nuclear-strike-tehran-israel/.
A strike with five 250-kiloton
TO
million, according to current predictions
Ivashov 07:
Ivashov, Leonid. “Iran: the Threat of a Nuclear War.” Global Research, Global Research Centre for Research on Globalization, 9 Apr. 2007, www.globalresearch.ca/iran-the-threat-of-a-nuclear-war/5309.
A military conflict between Israel and Iran will
TO
more nightmarish than WWII. | 904,125 |
365,248 | 379,130 | Gulf TOC Lay AC 1 | Contention One is Making Love, Not War:
Our current strategy in the Middle East has the region headed towards calamity.
Bolan, Christopher J. “The US Is Trying to Restore Deterrence in the Gulf. That Won't Be Enough.” Defense One, 6 Oct. 2019, www.defenseone.com/ideas/2019/10/us-trying-restore-deterrence-gulf-wont-be-enough/160394/.
The United States’ ability to deter
TO
careen into war.
AND
a failure to address the basic
TO
long-term security of the Gulf.”
The reason is recklessness.
Watts, S., Priebe, M., Frederick, B., Kavannagh, J., and Povlock, M. (2018). U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict. Retrieved March 28, 2020, from https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1900/RR1906/RAND_RR1906.pdf
U.S. commitments and troop
TO
disputes, or even initiating conflicts
Luckily, withdrawing our troops can reduce tensions and foster peace.
Tisdall, Simon. “Why Instinct and Ideology Tell Trump to Get out of the Middle East.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 11 Jan. 2020, www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/11/why-instinct-and-ideology-tell-trump-to-get-out-of-the-middle-east-suleimani-iran?fbclid=IwAR06-cRXalB16uEvdS5-eTrWU-UWpSh-_MbpPdEqgp_vPorzgXCvdGovspg.
Without the Americans to
TO
Yemen would be less likely.
Luck 20 of the CSM:
Luck, Taylor. “Iran Crisis: Why Gulf Arabs Increasingly See US as a Liability.” The Christian Science Monitor, The Christian Science Monitor, 8 Jan. 2020, www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2020/0108/Iran-crisis-Why-Gulf-Arabs-increasingly-see-US-as-a-liability.
The Gulf’s dramatic turnabout and push
TO
only way forward with Iran.
Contention Two is Leaving on Our Own Terms:
Lawlor and Wallace 20 of the ISW:
Lawlor, Katherine, and Brandon Wallace. “Iran's Proxies Accelerate Soleimani's Campaign to Compel U.S. Withdrawal from Iraq.” Institute for the Study of War, Institute for the Study of War, 2 Apr. 2020, www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/irans-proxies-accelerate-soleimanis-campaign-compel-us-withdrawal-iraq.
Iran continues to escalate
TO
that it remains undeterred.
Pfaff 20 of the Atlantic Council:
Pfaff, Anthony, and Barbara C Slavin. “Amid COVID-19, Iraq Remains US-Iran Battleground.” Atlantic Council, Atlantic Council, 20 Mar. 2020, www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/amid-covid-19-iraq-remains-us-iran-battleground/.
The current tit for tat
TO
demonstrate against US presence.
Lawlor and Wallace 20:
Lawlor, Katherine, and Brandon Wallace. “Iran's Proxies Accelerate Soleimani's Campaign to Compel U.S. Withdrawal from Iraq.” Institute for the Study of War, Institute for the Study of War, 2 Apr. 2020,
Iran and its proxies
TO
to curtail the proxy militias.
Slavin 20 of the Atlantic Council:
Pfaff, Anthony, and Barbara C Slavin. “Amid COVID-19, Iraq Remains US-Iran Battleground.” Atlantic Council, Atlantic Council, 20 Mar. 2020, www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/amid-covid-19-iraq-remains-us-iran-battleground/.
A US exit from
TO
my view, now inevitable.
It is far better we leave willingly than be removed.
Fritze, John. “Donald Trump Threatens Iraq with Sanctions, Says US Won't Leave Unless 'They Pay Us Back' for Air Base.” USA Today, Gannett Satellite Information Network, 7 Jan. 2020, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/01/05/donald-trump-threatens-iraq-sanctions-expel-us-troops/2821255001/.
President Donald Trump threatened
TO
moves to expel U.S. troops
Such sanctions would be horrific.
Cortright, David. “A Hard Look at Iraq Sanctions.” The Nation, 15 Nov. 2001, www.thenation.com/article/archive/hard-look-iraq-sanctions/.
studies on sanctions in Iraq
TO
to be 227,000.
Contention three is reigning in Israel.
Tisdall 19 finds:
Tisdall, Simon. “Why Instinct and Ideology Tell Trump to Get out of the Middle East.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 11 Jan. 2020, www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/11/why-instinct-and-ideology-tell-trump-to-get-out-of-the-middle-east-suleimani-iran?fbclid=IwAR06-cRXalB16uEvdS5-eTrWU-UWpSh-_MbpPdEqgp_vPorzgXCvdGovspg.
a symbolic weakening of America’s
TO
the country was not abandoned.
The creation of such a mutual defence treaty would be a major boon for stability in the region.
Lappin, Yaakov, et al. “Is Now the Right Time for a US-Israel Mutual Defense Pact?” JNS.org, 8 Dec. 2019, www.jns.org/is-it-time-for-a-us-israel-mutual-defense-pact/.
the pact would force
TO
a potential American veto.
Without it, the risks are extremely high.
Allinson, Tom. “Israel-Iran Conflict to Be Major Middle East Issue in 2020: DW: 02.01.2020.” DW.COM, 1 Mar. 2020, www.dw.com/en/israel-iran-conflict-to-be-major-middle-east-issue-in-2020/a-51600787.
Despite their aggressive rhetoric
TO
and more direct confrontation,”
Conflict between Iran and Israel would be absolutely devastating.
Oren, Michael. “The Coming Middle East Conflagration.” The Atlantic, Atlantic Media Company, 5 Nov. 2019, www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/11/israel-preparing-open-war/601285/.
Rockets, many carrying tons of
TO
as high as 4,000.
This would entail the suffering of millions.
Turse, Nick. “What Would Happen If Israel Nuked Iran.” Mother Jones, The Foundation for National Progress, 25 June 2017, www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/05/nuclear-strike-tehran-israel/.
A strike with five 250-kiloton
TO
million, according to current predictions | 904,124 |
365,249 | 379,163 | Contact Info | Contact for question @ (619) 484-3161 or [email protected]
we're breaking new for this freshman tourney, haven't done PF together before | 904,204 |
365,250 | 379,168 | Blake Disclosure Policy | The Blake debate team believes that disclosure serves important educational and competitive goals. We believe that the public forum community is moving in a positive direction and we will support that movement. We will will attempt to disclosure our pro and con arguments at the end of each tournament day on this wiki. After we have run a contention level argument we will disclose that verbally if the other team will reciprocate prior to the round. We do think that the wiki is important to do at the end of the tournament day but realize that during the middle of rounds during a tournament day we may not have time so we will verbally disclose. As we run new contentions, new links or new impacts we will then disclose them on the wiki. Please do not look at our wiki information unless you plan to participate and also use the wiki. | 904,207 |
365,251 | 379,175 | Blake DE Pro 21 | Card Appendix
I) FTAs
Europe on brink of recession
Khan 2019 (Yusuf Khan is a reporting fellow at Business Insider, Business Insider, August 10 2019, “Three of Europe’s biggest economies are probably in recession – And the ECB is out of bullets”, https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/germany-italy-uk-are-headed-for-recession-and-ecb-is-out-of-tools-2019-8-1028435638 // DOA: 8/13/19) JDE
“Three of Europe's… impact the sector."”
The EU will fall into a recession if Germany is doing poorly
Ewing 2019 (Jack Ewing, a writer on business, banking, economics and monetary policy from Frankfurt. 16 August 2019. “Germany Has Powered Europe’s Economy. What Happens When Its Engine Stalls?”, The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/16/business/eu-economy-germany-recession.html. DOA 8/18/19.) WD
Most economists are… situation gets worse.
The EU hasn’t recovered from the 2008 Financial Crisis
Arias and Wen 2015 (Maria A. Arias, a research analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Yi Wen, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 13 October 2015. “Recovery from the Great Recession Has Varied around the World,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/october-2015/recovery-from-the-great-recession-has-varied-around-the-world. DOA 8/18/19.) WD
Since the Great Recession… still below its prerecession peak.
Definition of double dip + impact of double dip
BusinessDictionary No Date (BusinessDictionary. No Date. “double-dip recession,” BusinessDictionary, http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/double-dip-recession.html. DOA 8/18/19.) WD
A second recession… into a depression.
900 million people could fall into poverty after an economic shock.
IMF 2013 (IMF, international Monetary Fund. March 14, 2013. IMF.org. “JOBS AND GROWTH: ANALYTICAL AND OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE FUND”, https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/031413.pdf?fbclid=IwAR25z8YmNU34qzj8tb7SOk5yi2xlPWZV6z-LN_jJ-kUZ4JqnCqpiOwr23LM . DOA: July 22, 2019.) ALP
At the same time… the face of adverse shocks (UN, World Economic Situation and Prospects, 2013).
BRI will cheapen shipping costs and create new trade routes benefiting both China and Europe
Chen 2018(Bokuan Chen, Research and Intelligence Analyst at Dezan Shira and Associates, April 2 2018, The Belt and Road Initiative: How European Businesses can Benefit, China Briefing, https://www.china-briefing.com/news/belt-road-initiative-how-european-businesses-can-benefit/, DOA July 9 2019) SM
For China, the BRI is… promote cross-regional cooperation.
BRI means lower trade costs, more FTAs and better international trade
Kohl 2019 (Tristain Kohl, “The Belt and Road Initiative’s Effect on Supply-Chain Trade: Evidence from Structural Gravity Equations”, www.academic.oup.com/cjres/article/12/1/77/5289371, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society Studies, 2016. DOA: July 13th 2019) JDE
“In gravity models,... such infrastructural developments.”
FTAs double EU exports
Pelkmans 16 (Jacques Pelkmans, Senior Fellow, CEPS, and study leader. April 2016. “Tomorrow's Silk Road: Assessing an EU-China Free Trade Agreement Executive Summary,” https://www.amfori.org/sites/default/files/CEPS20-20EU-China20agreement20-20Summary.pdf. DOA 7/13/19.) JDE)
EU bilateral exports… Chinese exports (of goods mainly) to the EU.
More exports lead to a higher chance of recovery
Beverelli et al 2011 (Cosmo Beverelli of the WTO, Madina Kukenova of the University of Lausenne, Nadia Rocha of the WTO. “ARE YOU EXPERIENCED? SURVIVAL AND RECOVERY OF TRADE RELATIONS AFTER BANKING CRISES”
https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd201103_e.pdf , 2011. DoA 7/22/19) JJ
In this section… becomes slightly smaller.
Empirically, FTAs help economic growth
McBride 2018 (CFR Deputy Editor who writes on energy policy, economics, and European politics, Council on Foreign Relations, October 1 2018, “NAFTA’s Economic Impact”, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/naftas-economic-impact DOA:8/16/19) JDE
“In the years since NAFTA… added growth per year.”
II) Green Tech
China also has a bunch of domestic reasons to quit BRI, including pensions, which will have to be cut to save it in the squo.
Pei 2019 (Minxin Pei, Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College, Chair in US-China relations at the Kluge Center of the Library of Congress. February 15, 2019. Nikkei Asian Review. “Will China let Belt and Road die quietly?”, https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Will-China-let-Belt-and-Road-die-quietly . DOA: July 13, 2019.) ALP
But the trouble for BRI… at least BRI 1.0, die quietly.
China needs the EU to fund the Belt and Road
Ciurtin 17(Horia Ciurtin, legal adviser in the field of international investment law and international arbitration, December 2017, European Institute of Romania, “A PIVOT TO EUROPE: CHINA’S BELT-AND-ROAD BALANCING ACT,” http://ier.gov.ro/wp-content/uploads/publicatii/Final_Policy-Brief-5_Horia-Ciurtin-A-Pivot-to-Europe_web.pdf DOA 7/04/2019) CJV
For attaining these objectives… with its marginal areas.
China is the global leader in renewable energy
Dudley 19 (Dominic Dudley, Forbes political contributor for the Middle East and Asia, Forbes, 11 January 2019, “China is Set to Become the World's Renewable Energy Superpower, According to New Report”, https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominicdudley/2019/01/11/china-renewable-energy-superpower/#300fb569745a // DOA: 7/10/19) JDE
“The report points out...renewable energy patents.”
China is a leader in renewable energy and plans to expand that market along the BRI
Araya 18 (Daniel Araya, tech consultant and government advisor and is a Senior Partner with the World Legal Summit, also a Senior Fellow with the Centre for International Governance Innovation, Brookings Institute, 27 November 2018, “China's Belt and Road Initiative is poised to transform the clean energy industry”, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5YPrOroZ7Q // DOA: 7/8/19) JDE
“BRI supports China’s long-term… all new electricity capacity.”
Renewables must account for 90 of emissions reduction to keep global mean temp below 2 degrees Celsius
IRENA 17 (The International Renewable Energy Agency, an intergovernmental organization that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future, IRENA.org, 2017, “Perspectives For the Energy Transition, Investment Needs for a Low-Carbon Energy System” https://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/Perspectives_for_the_Energy_Transition_2017.pdf // DOA: 7/10/19) JDE
“Accelerated deployment of… cost-effective renewable power.”
If warming continues, the world will literally end aaaaah
Ahmed 2019 (Nafeez Ahmed, British investigative journalist, former blogger at the Guardian. Has been published in Foreign Policy, The Atlantic, and the Times. June 3, 2019. Vice. “New Report Suggests ‘High Likelihood of Human Civilization Coming to an End’ Starting in 2050”, https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/597kpd/new-report-suggests-high-likelihood-of-human-civilization-coming-to-an-end-in-2050 . DOA: July 14, 2019.) ALP
The only way… Australian Coal Association.
Climate change will effect hundreds of thousands more per year
WHO 18 (The World Heath Organization. 1 February 2018. “Climate change and health,” World Health Organization, https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health. DOA 7/8/19.) WD
“Climate change affects… prepare and respond.” | 904,214 |
365,252 | 379,247 | 2020 Beyond Resolved Neg | Contention 1: Draining District Schools
Addition of charters causes money to be taken away from district schools.
Harris 19 observes that (Neubia L. Harris, Education Lawyer, Mitchell Hamline Law Review, 2019, “Adequate Education: The Disregarded Fundamental Right and the Resurgence of Segregation of Public Schools”, https://open.mitchellhamline.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1163andcontext=mhlr DOA 4/30/20) KG
Charter schools are...public school students.”1
This is empirically true as Wall 19 observes, (Patrick Wall, Dec 30, 2019, https://newark.chalkbeat.org/2019/12/30/21055590/seeking-to-rein-in-charter-sector-newark-superintendent-urges-state-to-close-four-schools/ DOA April 27, 2020) CC
First, he cited ... cannot be overstated.”
This creates a cycle of defunding that results in closures.
Farmer et al 17 states that (Stephanie Farmer: Associate Professor of Sociology Roosevelt University, Ashley Baber: PhD candidate in Sociology Loyola University, Chris Poulos :PhD candidate in Sociology, University of Illinois at Chicago, March 20 2017, “Closed By Choice: The Spatial Relationship between Charter School Expansion, School Closures, and Fiscal Stress in Chicago Public Schools”, Project for Middle Class Removal, https://ler.illinois.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Closed-By-Choice.pdf // DOA: 6/7/20)JDE
“Charters tend to ... are being shuttered.”
Farmer continues (Stephanie Farmer: Associate Professor of Sociology Roosevelt University, Ashley Baber: PhD candidate in Sociology Loyola University, Chris Poulos :PhD candidate in Sociology, University of Illinois at Chicago, March 20 2017, “Closed By Choice: The Spatial Relationship between Charter School Expansion, School Closures, and Fiscal Stress in Chicago Public Schools”, Project for Middle Class Removal, https://ler.illinois.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Closed-By-Choice.pdf // DOA: 6/7/20)JDE
“The left hand map ... issues and childcare options.19”
The impact is lower scores.
Han and Keefe 20 observe in their study that (Eunice S. Han, assistant professor at Utah University and part of Economic Policy Institute (EPI). Jeffrey Keefe, Professor Emeritus of Labor and Employment Relations at the School of Management and Labor Relations of Rutgers University and research associate for EPI. “The Impact of Charter School Competition on Student Achievement of Traditional Public Schools after 25 Years: Evidence from National District- level Panel Data,” 2020, Routledge, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kkt600-rE791jGsTDBId6I7BRd1hidLZ/view. DOA: 4/29/2020) DSE
While charter school ... the charter enrollment is not large.
Contention 2: Racial Discrimination
Subpoint A: Segregation
Many charter schools are very segregated as Heilig et al. 19 articulates, (Julian Vasquez Heilig, Department of Educational Policy Studies and Evaluation at University of Kentucky. T. Jameson Brewer, assistant professor of social foundations of education at the University of North Georgia. Yohuru Williams, professor of history and the dean of the College of Arts and Sciences at the University of St. Thomas. “Choice without Inclusion?: Comparing the Intensity of Racial Segregation in Charters and Public Schools at the Local, State and National Levels,” 7/12/2019, MDPI, https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7102/9/3/205/htm. DOA: 4/27/2020) DSE
Charter segregation has... peers in public schools.
This is because, as Walker 18 elaborates, (Tim Walker, journalist for neaToday. “Racial Isolation of Charter School Students Exacerbating Resegregation,” 5/4/2018, neaToday, http://neatoday.org/2018/05/04/racial-segregation-in-charter-schools/. DOA: 6/10/2020) DSE
“It’s disheartening that ... to be this way, says Perry.
Heilig continues (Julian Vasquez Heilig, Department of Educational Policy Studies and Evaluation at University of Kentucky. T. Jameson Brewer, assistant professor of social foundations of education at the University of North Georgia. Yohuru Williams, professor of history and the dean of the College of Arts and Sciences at the University of St. Thomas. “Choice without Inclusion?: Comparing the Intensity of Racial Segregation in Charters and Public Schools at the Local, State and National Levels,” 7/12/2019, MDPI, https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7102/9/3/205/htm. DOA: 4/27/2020) DSE
The coefficient for local ... Local Percent White.
This is critical as segregation is bad for education.
Harris 19 states that (Neubia L. Harris, Education Lawyer, Mitchell Hamline Law Review, 2019, “Adequate Education: The Disregarded Fundamental Right and the Resurgence of Segregation of Public Schools”, https://open.mitchellhamline.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1163andcontext=mhlr DOA 4/30/20) KG
Research has indicated...would be reduced or eliminated.”
The impact is worse jobs and political power.
Perry 19 concludes (Andre Perry, a David M. Rubenstein Fellow at The Brookings Institution and worked at many universities and news institutions. “Support for charters in 2020 election comes with a price,” 12/4/2019, The Hechinger Report, https://hechingerreport.org/support-for-charters-in-2020-election-comes-with-a-price/. DOA: 4/27/2020) DSE
After more than ... middle class there.
Subpoint B: Suspensions
Losen et al 16 explains (Daniel J Losen, director of the Center for Civil Rights Remedies at UCLA. March 2016. Civil Rights Project. “Charter Schools, Civil Rights and School Discipline: A Comprehensive Review,” https://civilrightsproject.ucla.edu/resources/projects/center-for-civil-rights-remedies/school-to-prison-folder/federal-reports/charter-schools-civil-rights-and-school-discipline-a-comprehensive-review/losen-et-al-charter-school-discipline-review-2016.pdf . DOA: May 27, 2020.) ALP
Given the rising ... many other educators are
Thus, Camera 16 describes that (Lauren Camera, a senior education writer at the U.S. News and World Report. 17 March 2016. “Charter Schools Propping Up the School-to-Prison Pipeline,” U.S. News and World Report, https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-03-17/study-charter-schools-suspend-more-black-students-disabled-students. DOA 5/27/20) WD
CHARTER SCHOOLS SUSPEND ... their non-disabled peers.
The different demographics of charter schools do not excuse their bad policy.
Losen et al 16 observes that (Daniel J Losen, director of the Center for Civil Rights Remedies at UCLA. March 2016. Civil Rights Project. “Charter Schools, Civil Rights and School Discipline: A Comprehensive Review,” https://civilrightsproject.ucla.edu/resources/projects/center-for-civil-rights-remedies/school-to-prison-folder/federal-reports/charter-schools-civil-rights-and-school-discipline-a-comprehensive-review/losen-et-al-charter-school-discipline-review-2016.pdf . DOA: May 27, 2020.) ALP
Readers should also ... last resort for all students.
There are 2 impacts:
1. The prison pipeline
Camera 16 states that (Lauren Camera, a senior education writer at the U.S. News and World Report. 17 March 2016. “Charter Schools Propping Up the School-to-Prison Pipeline,” U.S. News and World Report, https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-03-17/study-charter-schools-suspend-more-black-students-disabled-students. DOA 5/27/20) WD
It’s been well ... rights of students.
2. The racial achievement gap
Losen et al 16 represents that (Daniel J Losen, director of the Center for Civil Rights Remedies at UCLA. March 2016. Civil Rights Project. “Charter Schools, Civil Rights and School Discipline: A Comprehensive Review,” https://civilrightsproject.ucla.edu/resources/projects/center-for-civil-rights-remedies/school-to-prison-folder/federal-reports/charter-schools-civil-rights-and-school-discipline-a-comprehensive-review/losen-et-al-charter-school-discipline-review-2016.pdf . DOA: May 27, 2020.) ALP
Although not the … achievement gap (Morris and Perry, 2016). | 904,299 |
365,253 | 379,251 | Blake NEg Venezuela | We negate. Resolved: The United States should end its economic sanctions against Venezuela.
Our first contention is shunning:
Nicolas Maduro has been abusing his power and his people in two ways.
Deprivation of Human Rights
United States Department of State 2019 (United States Department of State, 7-25-2019, "Nicolás Maduro: Corruption and Chaos in Venezuela," https://www.state.gov/nicolas-maduro-corruption-and-chaos-in-venezuela-2/ DOA 12/1/19) LX
The former Maduro … enforce social controls.
Blocking necessary humanitarian aid
Kurmanaev and Krauss 19 (Anatoly Kurmanaev, NYT contributor reporting from Caracas, and Clifford Krauss NYT contributor from Houston, New York Times, Feb 9 2019, “U.S. Sanctions Are Aimed at Venezuela’s Oil. Its Citizens May Suffer First.”, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/08/world/americas/venezuela-sanctions-maduro.html // DOA: 12/13/19)JDE
“The opposition plans to bring … not any help, it is a message of humiliation to a people.””
There are two reasons sanctions must remain.
First, sanctions are a moral necessity
Trump imposed new sanctions because of Maduro’s human rights violations
Crowley and Kurmanaev 19 (Michael Crowley, a White House correspondent in the Washington bureau, where he covers President Trump’s foreign policy, and Anatoly Kurmanaev, NYT contributor, New York Times, August 6 2019, “Trump Imposes New Sanctions on Venezuela”, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/06/us/politics/venezuela-embargo-sanctions.html // DOA: 12/12/19)JDE
“President Trump signed an… authority in Venezuela.””
Sanctions are a form of shunning by cutting off the US from the Venezuelan economy.
Even if sanctions cannot change the actions of a country, it still serves as a clear signal of disapproval
Beversluis 1989 (Eric H. Beversluis, 2, April, 1989, “On Shunning Undesirable Regimes: Ethics and Economic Sanctions” Public Affairs Quarterly https://www.jstor.org/stable/40435708 DOA: 12/19/2019) HS
IS often clear that economic… its lack of responsibilit
Second, sanctions are reducing Maduro’s ability to repress his population.
Rendon 19 (Moises Rendon, Director, The Future of Venezuela Initiative and Fellow, Americas Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies, September 3 2019, “ Are Sanctions Working in Venezuela?”, https://www.csis.org/analysis/are-sanctions-working-venezuela // DOA: 12/9/19)JDE
“There is significant evidence… engage with financial assets.”
This is crucial as Maduro cultivated the humanitarian crisis
Escobari 19 (Marcela Escobari, a senior fellow in the Center for Universal Education at Brookings, where she is leading the Workforce of the Future Initiative. She was Assistant Administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Bureau for Latin America and the Caribbean in President Obama’s administration, Brookings Institute, Feb 28 2019, “Made by Maduro: The Humanitarian Crisis in Venezuela and US Policy Responses”, https://www.brookings.edu/testimonies/made-by-maduro-the-humanitarian-crisis-in-venezuela-and-us-policy-responses/ // DOA: 12/15/19)JDE
“Venezuela sits on … and lawlessness that scarcities have fueled.”
The humanitarian crisis is deadly
CRS 19(Congressional Research Service, the nonpartisan congressional institution that provides research to congress on issues they ask for, August 26th 2019, “Venezuela: Political Crisis and U.S. Policy,” https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IF10230.pdf DOA 12/7/2019) CJV
Maduro, leader of the … production worsen social conditions.
Contention 2 is US intervention
Hodgson 2019 explains
Venezuela is… Panama in 1989-1990
Instead, Telesur in 2017 reports . The president of the assembly,... economic aggression against the Venezuelan people.
Sanctions are an alt to war
Turak 19 (Natasha Turak, CNBC correspondant, CNBC, Dec 14 2019, US isn’t weaponizing the dollar; sanctions are the alternative to war, Mnuchin says”, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/14/mnuchin-us-isnt-weaponizing-dollar-sanctions-are-alternative-to-war.html // DOA: 12/19/19)JDE
“Sanctions like those on … said. “So whether it’s North
That’s because political support. Groppe 2019 explains No Republican presidential candidate… Venezuelan populations.
Trump knows he needs a hardline stance on Venezuela for the sake of his re-election ~-~- and it’s either sanctions or war. Wells 2019 finds many disgruntled Venezuelans … significant swing constituency in a swing state in the 2020 elections
Groppe continues South Florida is … in how people vote.”
For this reasons, Jacobs et al 2019 explains
Trump and his advisers… pressure Maduro.
However, Sanctions neutralize the Venezuelan threat, making military intervention unnecessary.
The impact is a refugee crisis and destroying what remains of Venezuela’s security.
Mora 19 (Frank O. Mora, 3-19-2019, "What a Military Intervention in Venezuela Would Look Like," Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/venezuela/2019-03-19/what-military-intervention-venezuela-would-look DOA 12/11/19) MDS
A precision military… in a much smaller country.
Thus we negate.
Contention 2 Card Appendix:
2 options in Venezuela: Cuba-style embargo or Panama-style military invasion
Hodgson 2019 (Fergus Hodgson, Journalist and researcher at the Frontier Centre For Public Policy, "Six Takeaways from Venezuela’s Dystopia," https://fcpp.org/2019/03/27/six-takeaways-from-venezuelas-dystopia/ March 27, 2019, DoA 12/15/19) JJ
Maduro’s latest term in the illegitimate presidency was not a definitive moment. The imposition of the Constituent Assembly in 2017, for example, was as problematic, as was the imprisonment of opposition leader Leopoldo López in 2014. The Trump administration’s latest actions—with the support of democratic allies, including Canada—are having an impact, but they would have been more effective if carried out a decade or more earlier. Venezuela is now in a stalemate that gives two bad options: another Cuba, with poverty and tyranny for generations, or a military intervention akin to Panama in 1989-1990. The latter would be a difficult undertaking, given the presence of Cuban, Russian, and Chinese agents, along with major organized-crime syndicates and terrorist organizations. This need not happen again and could have been avoided with the right attention, both from Venezuelans and international forums such as the Organization of American States. The Chavistas have exemplified the truism that you can vote yourself into socialism, but you will have to shoot your way out.
Trump sanctions are alternative to military intervention
Telesur 2017 (Telesur, Spanish speaking publication, 29 August 2017 "Venezuelan Constituent Assembly Passes Decree Against US Sanctions” https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Venezuela-Constituent-Assembly-Debates-Response-to-US-Sanctions-20170829-0009.html 12/15/19) JJ
Venezuela’s National Constituent Assembly has voted unanimously for a decree opposing the latest U.S. economic sanctions against the country. The decree also says the Assembly will ask the Supreme Court and the Attorney General's Office to investigate and sanction any Venezuelan politicians who encouraged or promoted the imposition of sanctions against their own country. The president of the assembly, Delcy Rodriguez, recalled that opposition leaders had issued a communique at the weekend, "calling for and justifying all these actions and calling on other governments to apply similar sanctions." She explained that U.S. President Donald Trump’s financial sanctions are an alternative to military intervention, which was met with rejection even from U.S.-allied regional right-wing governments. Rodriquez stated that the purpose of these attacks' was to further destabilize the country and “intensify the economic aggression against the Venezuelan people.” The ANC announced on Sunday that throughout this week it will debate how to respond to the wave of “aggression” from the U.S. government and will announce a plan of action Friday.
First link
Trump needs Florida, and Florida needs the Cuban/Venezuelan vote which is earned through sanctions
Groppe 2019 (Maureen Groppe, 2-1-2019, "Trump's Venezuela policy is also good 2020 politics in key state of Florida," Knoxville News Sentinel, https://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/02/01/trump-venezuela-policy-also-good-2020-politics-key-state-florida-maduro-guaido/2730779002/ DoA 12/15/19) JJ
And that could help another embattled president: Donald Trump. No Republican presidential candidate has won the White House in nearly a century without carrying Florida – a state also known for its razor-thin election margins. "It’s very hard to see a scenario where the president gets re-elected without winning Florida," said Democratic strategist Steve Schale who ran Barack Obama's 2008 campaign in Florida. Trump's tough stance on Maduro is very popular in Florida among that state’s Cuban and Venezuelan populations, which account for more than 1.5 million of the state's 21 million residents. It also resonates with the Colombian community, which is growing in political importance in Florida's most populous county: Miami-Dade.
Venezuelans are a swing constituency in a swing state
Wells 2019 (Laura Wells, activist and politician of the Green Party, 6-14-2019, "Why did both Obama and Trump sanction Venezuela?," gp.org, https://www.gp.org/obama_and_trump_sanctioned_venezuela 12/15/19) JJ
One aspect relates to the Electoral College in the United States. Why haven't any political leaders led us out of that outdated, slavery-based, undemocratic disaster? With it, neither Democratic nor Republican candidates have anything to gain by not bashing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Why? Because many disgruntled Venezuelans of the upper classes have moved to Florida and they now organize with hard-line Cuban-Americans and compose a small but inordinately significant swing constituency in a swing state in the 2020 elections. What incentive is there for a party leader like Obama to alienate them and their campaign donations, instead of merely going along with the story "everybody knows"?
People actually care about FoPo in South Florida
Groppe 2019 (Maureen Groppe, 2-1-2019, "Trump's Venezuela policy is also good 2020 politics in key state of Florida," Knoxville News Sentinel, https://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/02/01/trump-venezuela-policy-also-good-2020-politics-key-state-florida-maduro-guaido/2730779002/ DoA 12/15/19) JJ
“These are all linked and so for the administration to act tough and talk tough (on Venezuela) is popular in South Florida,” said Mora, who served as deputy assistant defense secretary for the Western Hemisphere during the Obama administration. “And South Florida is one of the few areas or regions of the country in which foreign policy is a domestic political factor in how people vote.” So it's no wonder Pence will be in Miami on Friday, meeting with members of the Venezuelan exile community at Iglesia Doral Jesus Worship Center, along with Carlos Vecchio the Venezuelan diplomat representing Guaido in the U.S. | 904,303 |
365,254 | 379,179 | cites stanford aff | Firstly, a definition of UBI to frame the round
(United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, 4 Feb 2017, “Can the Universal Basic Income solve global inequalities”, https://en.unesco.org/inclusivepolicylab/news/can-universal-basic-income-solve-global-inequalities DOA 1/28/20)KJR
“The universal basic income...income they receive.”
(Robert Rector, Senior Research Fellow at The Heritage Foundation on Domestic Policy Studies, Institute for Family, Community, and Opportunity. 3 May 2012. “Examining the Means-tested Welfare State: 79 Programs and $927 Billion in Annual Spending,” The Heritage Foundation, https://www.heritage.org/testimony/examining-the-means-tested-welfare-state-79-programs-and-927-billion-annual-spending. DOA 1/31/20) WD
“In FY 2011, … of the population).”
Contention 1: Creating economic growth
A UBI spurs critical economic growth in four ways
Enabling wage negotiation
Kimberly Amadeo, writer for the balance. Published 12-13-2019, "Should Everyone Get a Guaranteed Income?," Balance, https://www.thebalance.com/universal-basic-income-4160668. DOA January 4 2019) GKH
“An unconditional basic ...during a recession.”
(International Workplace Group, a multinational provider of serviced offices and coworking spaces sponsoring MagazineUS. No Date. “How Universal Basic Income could transform work as we know it” IWG.
“What’s more, the … might otherwise be possible.”
(Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Chief Operating Officer and Managing Director at the World Bank, Huffington Post, Dec 6 2017, “Jobs - The Fastest Road Out Of Poverty”, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/jobs~-~--the-fastest-road-o_b_10404594 // DOA: 1/25/20)JDE
“Good jobs are ... for the poor.”
Boosting education
John Rosales, contributor for NEAToday, NEAToday, June 8 2015, “Why Students Drop Out: The Economic Pressures That Make Leaving School Unavoidable”, http://neatoday.org/2015/06/08/why-students-drop-out-the-economic-pressures-that-make-leaving-school-unavoidable/ // DOA: 1/26/20)JDE
“Among high school...are native-born U.S. citizens.”
(John Rosales, contributor for NEAToday, NEAToday, June 8 2015, “Why Students Drop Out: The Economic Pressures That Make Leaving School Unavoidable”, http://neatoday.org/2015/06/08/why-students-drop-out-the-economic-pressures-that-make-leaving-school-unavoidable/ // DOA: 1/26/20)JDE
“In some cases, … receive food stamps.”
(International Workplace Group, a multinational provider of serviced offices and coworking spaces sponsoring MagazineUS. No Date. “How Universal Basic Income could transform work as we know it” IWG. https://www.regus.com/work-us/universal-basic-income-transform-work-know/. DOA: Jan 10 2019) SRW
“5. Smarter school-leavers. … manage this transition.”
(Arne Ruckert, Senior research associate for the Journal of Public Health, 2-2-2017, "Reducing health inequities: is universal basic income the way forward?," OUP Academic, https://academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/article/40/1/3/2966187, DOA: 1/7/20)ET
“Education has a prominent … and overall health.”
(Child Fund International, works with local partner organizations, governments, corporations and individuals to help create the safe environments children need to thrive, Child Fund International, Nov 4 2013, “The Effects of Poverty on Education in the United States”, https://www.childfund.org/Content/NewsDetail/2147489206/ // DOA: 1/26/20)JDE
“The poverty rate … in poor health.”
(Scott Santens, Writer for Medium; Citizen of Earth and New Orleans; Bachelor of Science in Psychology, “Universal Basic Income Will Accelerate Innovation by Reducing Our Fear of Failure”, Nov 30, 2016, https://medium.com/basic-income/universal-basic-income-will-accelerate-innovation-by-reducing-our-fear-of-failure-b81ee65a254 DOA: January 27, 2019) SP
“Meanwhile, entrepreneurship is… paramount to innovation.”
(Scott Santens, Writer for Medium; Citizen of Earth and New Orleans; Bachelor of Science in Psychology, “Universal Basic Income Will Accelerate Innovation by Reducing Our Fear of Failure”, Nov 30, 2016, https://medium.com/basic-income/universal-basic-income-will-accelerate-innovation-by-reducing-our-fear-of-failure-b81ee65a254 DOA: January 27, 2019) SP
“If everyone received … of buying power.”
Fourth is increasing consumer spending.
(Josh Bivens, the director of research at the Economic Policy Institute (EPI). His areas of research include macroeconomics, fiscal and monetary policy, the economics of globalization, social insurance, and public investment, December 12 2017, “Inequality is slowing US economic growth” Economic Policy Institute. https://www.epi.org/publication/secular-stagnation/ DOA: January 30, 2019) SP
What this report … robust economic growth.
Straubhaar 17(Thomas Straubhaar, Swiss economist and professor at the University of Hamburg, March-April 2017, “On the Economics of a Universal Basic Income”, Intereconomics, https://archive.intereconomics.eu/year/2017/2/on-the-economics-of-a-universal-basic-income/ DOA 01/09/20) KG
“In spite of … just tax system.”
(Charles Murray, The Foundation for Law, Justice and Society in collaboration with The Centre for Socio-Legal Studies, University of Oxford. Nov 17 2008. “Guaranteed Income as a Replacement for the Welfare State”. FLJS. https://www.fljs.org/files/publications/Murray.pdf. DOA: Jan 8 2020) SRW
“Immediate effects 3: … GI affect them?”
(Nathan Heller, Writer for New Yorker, New York Times, Vouge, Socioeconomics writer. July 2nd 2018. “Who really stands to win from Universal Basic Income” The New Yorker, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/07/09/who-really-stands-to-win-from-universal-basic-income 12/25/19) TCS
“Framing basic income … cash as needed?”
Second, stopping a recession.
(Jonnelle Marte, Economics Researcher for the New York Federal Reserve, Went Columbia Business School, and past Financial Expert for Washington Post, August 21 2019, “3 out of 4 economists predict a U.S. recession by 2021, survey finds” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/19/out-economists-predict-us-recession-by-survey-finds/ DOA: January 21, 2019) SP
“Most economists believe… into safer assets.”
(Dylan Matthews, American Journalist who went to Harvard and has written for The Washington Post and Vox. Son of person who won 500k on Jeopardy, Aug 30, 2017, Vox. “Study: a universal basic income would grow the economy” https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/30/16220134/universal-basic-income-roosevelt-institute-economic-growth DOA: January 27 2019) SP
“A universal basic … 4.7 million people.”
(John Mauldin, financial writer, publisher, and New York Times bestselling-author, President of the investment advisory firm Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC. May 24, 2018. Forbes. "The 2020s Might Be The Worst Decade In U.S. History", https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2018/05/24/the-2020s-might-be-the-worst-decade-in-u-s-history/1#49cc3da548d3. DOA: July 22, 2019.) ALP
“I recently wrote… this tightening cycle.”
(Olivier Blanchard, Carlo Cottarelli, and Siddharth Tiwari, 03/14/2013, JOBS AND GROWTH: ANALYTICAL AND OPERATIONAL
CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE FUND, https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/031413.pdf DOA: July 16, 2019) SCK
“Following very weak .. of adverse shocks (UN, World Economic Situation and Prospects, 2013).” | 904,218 |
365,255 | 379,217 | April - TOC Day 1 | See “Georgetown Semis” | 904,264 |
365,256 | 379,229 | Interps - Frivolous Theory | Interp: Debaters should go for shells that they read rather than kicking out of it. They asked the judge in round 6 if he was ok with “tricks”. it’s frivolous theory
Standards
a. Standard a is fairness: These shells are meant to trick the debater This kills fairness because no one knows how to respond and it isn’t real argumentation. It just encourages debate focused on mind games not policy discussion.
b. Standard b is education: Frivolous theory isn’t meant to win them the round, so it detracts from any productive discussion on policy or even real theory. This means less time spent in real discussion and thus less time becoming educated
Impact is drop them | 904,276 |
365,257 | 379,238 | Septober - Presentation Neg QuartersFinals | C1
Bohman 17 (Bohman, Viking. “Why America Must Participate in China's Belt and Road Initiative.” The National Interest. June 2017. nationalinterest.org/feature/why-america-must-participate-chinas-belt-road-initiative-21206 //RJ)
The second reason … … were to be sanctioned
Haass 2019 (Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, ex-director of Policy Planning for the US Department of State. February 15, 2019. Council on Foreign Relations. “The Looming Taiwan Crisis”, https://www.cfr.org/article/looming-taiwan-crisis . DOA: July 18, 2019.) ALP
All of this is …… to a neat solution.
Lampton et al no date (Lampton et al, director of China studies at Johns Hopkins, “Why is the Taiwan issue so dangerous?” https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/china/experts/taiwan.html , No Date, 9/6/19) JJ
... prior to the World …… into a regional conflict.
Littlefield 2015 (Alex Littlefield, journalist for The Diplomat, "Taiwan and the Prospects for War Between China and America," The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/taiwan-and-the-prospects-for-war-between-china-and-america/ 2015. DoA 10/12/19) JJ
In the view of China…… levels of prosperity
Lamb, 2008 (Robert, Staff Writer, B.A. in creative writing from the University of Tennessee, “What would nuclear winter be like?”, How Stuff Works, http://science.howstuffworks.com/nuclear-winter.htm/printable)
What would nuclear ……famine and starvation.
C2
Ewing 19 (Jack Ewing, New York Times, 8-16-2019, "Germany Has Powered Europe’s Economy. What Happens When Its Engine Stalls?," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/16/business/eu-economy-germany-recession.html?auth=login-emailandlogin=email DOA 8/27/19) MDS
FRANKFURT — When a …… thrive when Germany is sickly.
?
Ewing 19 (Jack Ewing, New York Times, 8-16-2019, "Germany Has Powered Europe’s Economy. What Happens When Its Engine Stalls?," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/16/business/eu-economy-germany-recession.html?auth=login-emailandlogin=email DOA 8/27/19) MDS
“If the largest …… contraction in global trade.
Atlantic 19 “Why Won’t the US Admit It Needs Europe Against China?” The Atlantic. 2019//SK
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/united-states-needs-europe-against-china/590887/
One senior administration official likened discussions of China policy to the period after the 9/11 attacks. Inevitably, this person said, there will be an “overreaction” from Washington, with “collateral damage” for other countries, before U.S. policy settles down. In Brussels, senior officials are comparing the Trump administration’s China policy to Brexit. Both, they say, are based on the deluded notion that a fading great power can reverse the course of history and return to its glorious past. The irony is that senior U.S. administration officials …… and not be successful.”
?
Tausche, Kayla. “Trump administration to delay auto tariffs by up to six months: Sources.” CNBC. 5/15/19 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/15/trump-administration-to-delay-auto-tariffs-amid-trade-war.html//SSK
The Trump administration …… Ford and General Motors jumped.
?
Trigkas, Vasilis. “Nato and China summits give Europe a chance to assert its interests and stabilise the global order.” South China Morning Post. July 2018//SK
https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2153948/nato-and-china-summits-give-europe-chance
If negotiations accelerate …… between Beijing and Washington.
?
The Bank of Finland 2016 (Bank of Finland Bulletin, 4-13-2016, "Significance of the car industry in EU countries – Bank of Finland Bulletin," https://www.bofbulletin.fi/en/2016/1/significance-of-the-car-industry-in-eu-countries/
In the EU countries, …… countries and the euro area.
?
Heeb, Gina. “Trump's proposed car tariffs could trigger a global growth recession, BAML says.” Markets Insider. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-tariffs-cars-could-trigger-global-growth-recession-baml-2019-2-1027973273 2/21/19//SSK
While that could benefit some ……trade tensions that emerged last year.
?
IMF (The International Monetary Fund, “Jobs and Growth: Analytical and Operational Considerations For the Fund,” 2013, https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/031413.pdf, DoA 7/21/19) JJ
Across OECD countries, …… and Prospects, 2013).
C3
FOTE 2016 (FOTE, Friends of The Earth, global coalition of environmental organizations in 74 countries, “CHINA'S BELT and ROAD INITIATIVE”, https://1bps6437gg8c169i0y1drtgz-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/BRI_Intro.pdf DoA 9/8/19) JJ
Although China is ……Bank was approved 30 .
APRN 2019 (Asia Pacific Research Network, ““Greening” the Belt and Road Initiative? What about people's rights?” https://grain.org/en/article/6239-greening-the-belt-and-road-initiative-what-about-people-s-rights207-23-2019 30 May 2019. 10/10/19) JJ
Faced with criticisms …… companies like Sinochem Group.
European Commission 2019 (European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations - European Commission, "Forced displacement: refugees, asylum-seekers and internally displaced people (IDPs)," https://ec.europa.eu/echo/what-we-do/humanitarian-aid/refugees-and-internally-displaced-persons_en
Up to 85 percent of …… 10 years for 90 percent of IDPs. | 904,287 |
365,258 | 379,212 | SAME CASE AS UK | SAME CASE AS UK | 904,254 |
365,259 | 379,195 | Blake OP Neg BRI Version 1 | The Belt and Road media is decreasing
Pei 2019 (Minxin Pei, Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College, Chair in US-China relations at the Kluge Center of the Library of Congress. February 15, 2019. Nikkei Asian Review. “Will China let Belt and Road die quietly?”, https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Will-China-let-Belt-and-Road-die-quietly . DOA: July 13, 2019.) ALP
But, inside China, it is ....headwinds against BRI are obvious.
China econ showing downward trends- BRI could be allowed to die quietly
Pei 2019 (Minxin Pei, Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College, Chair in US-China relations at the Kluge Center of the Library of Congress. February 15, 2019. Nikkei Asian Review. “Will China let Belt and Road die quietly?”, https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Will-China-let-Belt-and-Road-die-quietly . DOA: July 13, 2019.) ALP
But the trouble for BRI ....I, at least BRI 1.0, die quietly.
The European Union joining is the only risk of saving BRI.
Ciurtin 17 reveals (Horia Ciurtin, legal adviser in the field of international investment law and international arbitration, December 2017, European Institute of Romania, “A PIVOT TO EUROPE: CHINA’S BELT-AND-ROAD BALANCING ACT,” http://ier.gov.ro/wp-content/uploads/publicatii/Final_Policy-Brief-5_Horia-Ciurtin-A-Pivot-to-Europe_web.pdf DOA 7/13/2019) ALP
For attaining these ...and connectivity with its marginal areas.
BRI hurt environment
Laurance 2018 (William F. Laurance, Distinguished Research Professor at James Cook University, Australia and has been elected as a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Science. He has received an Australian Laureate Fellowship from the Australian Research Council. May 22, 2018. “China’s Global Infrastructure Initiative Could Bring Environmental Catastrophe,” Nexus Media, https://nexusmedianews.com/chinas-global-infrastructure-initiative-could-be-an-environmental-catastrophe-25a40e2d1000. DOA: 9/4/19)AO
In biodiversity and environmental terms, ....infrastructure projects on the planet.
China uses the BRI to export coal companies to host nations.
Teese 2018 finds (Patrick Teese, works at the UPenn Office of Sustainability and writes for the Environmental and Energy Study Institute. October 30, 2018. EESI. “Exploring the Environmental Repercussions of China’s Belt and Road Initiative”, https://www.eesi.org/articles/view/exploring-the-environmental-repercussions-of-chinas-belt-and-road-initiativ . DOA: July 13, 2019.) ALP
Despite China’s growing ...the growth of a thriving solar industry.
Lots of coal projects to BRI lead to increase coal consumption
Patrick Teese (Patrick Teese, works at the UPenn Office of Sustainability and writes for the Environmental and Energy Study Institute. October 30, 2018. EESI. “Exploring the Environmental Repercussions of China’s Belt and Road Initiative”, https://www.eesi.org/articles/view/exploring-the-environmental-repercussions-of-chinas-belt-and-road-initiativ . DOA: July 13, 2019.) ALP
Despite China’s growing ...products and limit the growth of a thriving solar industry.
BRI could cause climate change is adopt China’s development model
Hilton 2019 finds (Isabel Hilton, London-based writer and commentator, educated in Chinese at the University of Edinburgh, received an OBE in 2009. January 3, 2019. YaleEnvironment360. “How China’s Big Overseas Initiative Threatens Global Climate Progress”, https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-chinas-big-overseas-initiative-threatens-climate-progress . DOA: January 3, 2019.) ALP
The first phase — of ...on a building spree overseas.
The impacts of climate change will be damaging to an existential scale.
(Nafeez Ahmed, British investigative journalist, former blogger at the Guardian. Has been published in Foreign Policy, The Atlantic, and the Times. June 3, 2019. Vice. “New Report Suggests ‘High Likelihood of Human Civilization Coming to an End’ Starting in 2050”, https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/597kpd/new-report-suggests-high-likelihood-of-human-civilization-coming-to-an-end-in-2050 . DOA: July 14, 2019.) ALP
The only way to avoid the ...Australian Coal Association.
BRI countries increase carbon emissions
Zadek 2019(Simon Zadek, Co-Director at the UNEP Inquiry into the Design of a Sustainable Financial System. April 25, 2019. Brookings. “The critical frontier: Reducing emissions from China’s Belt and Road”, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2019/04/25/the-critical-frontier-reducing-emissions-from-chinas-belt-and-road/ . DOA: July 17, 2019.) ALP
While every energy-saving ... all other countries succeeded in following a 2DS pathway.
300,000 people die from coal pollution each year
Conca 2017 finds (James Conca, Trustee of the Herbert M. Parker Foundation, Adjunct at WSU, an Affiliate Scientist at LANL. Nov 7, 2017. “Pollution Kills More People Than Anything Else,” Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2017/11/07/pollution-kills-more-people-than-anything-else/#4d00bd071a35. DOA: 7/17/19)AO
The most comprehensive report to .... has become a global health epidemic.
Sand is extracted a lot
Torres et al 2017 (Aurora Torres, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Ecology, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research, Jianguo "Jack" Liu, Rachel Carson Chair in Sustainability, Michigan State University, Jodi Brandt, Assistant Professor - Human Environment Systems, Boise State University, Kristen Lear, Ph.D. Candidate, University of Georgia. SEPTEMBER 8, 2017. “The World is Running Out of Sand,” Smithsonian Magazine. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/world-facing-global-sand-crisis-180964815/. DOA: 8/26/19)AO
Sand and gravel are now ....increasing almost sixfold in the last 25 years.
BRI uses more concrete than other projects
Laurance 2018 (William F. Laurance, Distinguished Research Professor at James Cook University, Australia and has been elected as a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Science. He has received an Australian Laureate Fellowship from the Australian Research Council. May 22, 2018. “China’s Global Infrastructure Initiative Could Bring Environmental Catastrophe,” Nexus Media, https://nexusmedianews.com/chinas-global-infrastructure-initiative-could-be-an-environmental-catastrophe-25a40e2d1000. DOA: 9/4/19)AO
In biodiversity and.... projects on the planet.
Mekong won’t be able to replenish itself after sand mining
Luedi 2017 (Jeremy Luedi, a Senior Analyst at Global Risks Insights. July 26, 2017. “Under the Radar: Forget the South China Sea, this is Asia’s real water war,” Global Risk Insights, https://globalriskinsights.com/2017/07/mekong-river-asias-real-water-war/. DOA: 9/4/19)AO
China’s demand for sand ....slowly disappearing in the face of oceanic erosion.
Sand mining harms the food supply of 60 million people
Pearce 2019 (Fred Pearce, freelance author and journalist based in the U.K. He is a contributing writer for Yale Environment 360 and is the author of numerous books. FEBRUARY 5, 2019. “The Hidden Environmental Toll of Mining the World’s Sand,” Yale Environment 360, https://e360.yale.edu/features/the-hidden-environmental-toll-of-mining-the-worlds-sand. DOA: 9/4/19) AO
But the miners simply ...the fish breeding grounds.
Decline in the health of the delta affect Vietnamese food supply and global rice supply
Piesse 2018 (Mervyn Piesse, Research Manager, Global Food and Water Crises Research Programme. 17 OCTOBER 2018. “Food and Water Security Implications of Sand Mining,” Future Directions International, http://www.futuredirections.org.au/publication/food-and-water-security-implications-of-sand-mining/. DOA: 9/6/19) AO
Erosion has increased in the ....increased risk of saltwater intrusion. | 904,237 |
365,260 | 379,199 | Blake OP Neg OCO Version 2 | Our sole contention is the militarization of cyberspace
Before the prevalence of OCOs, cyberspace was a relatively peaceful domain
Valeriano and Jensen, 2019 (Brandon Valeriano is the Donald Bren Chair of Armed Politics at Marine Corps University, and Benjamin Jensen, is an associate professor at the Marine Corps University and a scholar-in-residence at American University's School of International Service, CATO Institute, January 15, 2019. “The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint,”, https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/myth-cyber-offense-case-restraint // DOA: 10/14/19) JDE
“Cyber policy and strategy ...good defense.”
Unfortunately, Stuxnet and US OCOs have permanently militarized cyberspace
Middleton 2016 (Alex Middleton, Managing Editor at the Interstate Journal of International Affairs, postgraduate student at Oxford, holds bachelors in economics and international politics. 2016. Inquiries Journal. “Stuxnet: The World's First Cyber... Boomerang?”, http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/articles/1343/stuxnet-the-worlds-first-cyber-boomerang . DOA: November 29, 2019.) ALP
Sean Collins and Stephen McCombie state...of non-state actors".19
There are five reasons why the US use of OCOs leads to militarization of cyberspace
Miscalculation
Preemptive offensive cyber will lead states to overreact and escalate because they think any cyber operation is an existential threat
Valeriano and Jensen, 2019 (Brandon Valeriano is the Donald Bren Chair of Armed Politics at Marine Corps University, and Benjamin Jensen, is an associate professor at the Marine Corps University and a scholar-in-residence at American University's School of International Service, CATO Institute, January 15, 2019. “The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint,”, https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/myth-cyber-offense-case-restraint // DOA: 10/14/19) JDE
“New policy options proposed ...by adversaries.57”
Direct Retaliation
Countries feel forced to retaliate in the cyber realm when US OCOs target them
Sussman 19 explains (Bruce Sussman; journalist, has been reporting on the cybersecurity industry for several years now, SecureWorld’s multimedia journalist, SecureWorld, June 24 2019, “Cyber War vs Traditional War: The Difference is Fading”, https://www.secureworldexpo.com/industry-news/cyber-war-vs-traditional-war // DOA: 10/15/19) JDE
“And we've discovered something else... and from the IRGC cyber army."
Arms Race
US cyber attacks empirically cause other countries to expand cyber capabilities
Craig and Valeriano, 16 (Anthony Craig, Cardiff University. Brandon Valeriano, Cardiff University. 2016. “Conceptualising Cyber Arms Races.” 8th International Conference on Cyber Conflict. https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2018/10/Art-10-Conceptualising-Cyber-Arms-Races.pdf DOA 11/13/19) GSH
US officials undoubtedly ...in cyber capabilities.
The result is that a global cyber arms race has been triggered
Hiner, 18 (Jason Hiner is Editorial Director at CNET and former Editor in Chief of TechRepublic. He's co-author of the book, Follow the Geeks. December 2nd, 2018. “The state of cyberwarfare: 2 things you need to know.” https://www.zdnet.com/article/the-state-of-cyberwarfare-2-things-you-need-to-know/ DOA 11/13/19) GSH
Countries are already ...hacked the US election.
Reuse
US use of OCOs allows other actors to repurpose weapons to harm the US
Zetter 15 (Kim Zetter, an award-winning, senior staff reporter at Wired covering cybercrime, privacy, and security. Feb 10 2015 “The NSA Acknowledges What We All Feared: Iran Learns From US Cyberattacks” Wired. https://www.wired.com/2015/02/nsa-acknowledges-feared-iran-learns-us-cyberattacks/. DOA: Oct 28 2019) SRW
After the Stuxnet digital weapon... targeted Saudi Arabia's oil conglomerate, Saudi Aram
These leaks shift the cyberrealm towards more dangerous nonstate actors
Net Politics 2018 (Net Politics, subset of the Council on Foreign Relations “The Theft and Reuse of Advanced Offensive Cyber Weapons Pose A Growing Threat” https://www.cfr.org/blog/theft-and-reuse-advanced-offensive-cyber-weapons-pose-growing-threat June 19 2018. DoA 4 November 2019) JJ
First, are states going to start reusing...remain an attractive target.
Norms
The US using OCOs normalizes cyberwarfare
Groll 2019 (Elias Groll, a staff writer at Foreign Policy, covering cyberspace. He has worked at the magazine since 2012 and is a graduate of Harvard University. 27 September 2019. “The U.S.-Iran Standoff Is Militarizing Cyberspace,” Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/27/the-u-s-iran-standoff-is-militarizing-cyberspace/. DOA 10/10/19)
With U.S. President Donald Trump ...elite hacking corps.
Overall, the global trend is destructive because of OCOs
Singer, 15 (P.W. Singer is director of the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence at Brookings. Allan Friedman is a visiting scholar at the Cyber Security Policy Research Institute at George Washington University. They are the co-authors of Cybersecurity and Cyberwar: What Everyone Needs to Know, from which this essay is adapted. December 18th, 2019. “How the United States Can Win the Cyberwar of the Future.” Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/18/how-the-united-states-can-win-the-cyberwar-of-the-future-deterrence-theory-security/ DOA 11/09/19) GSH
Yet despite this offensive capability...Pentagon’s Joint Staff network.
And Morgan 2017 finalizes (Steve Morgan, Editor-in-Chief Cybersecurity Ventures. “2017 Cybercrime Report.” Herjavec Group. https://1c7fab3im83f5gqiow2qqs2k-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/2015-wp/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/2017-Cybercrime-Report.pdf DOA 10/25/19) GSH
Cybercrime is the greatest threat to every company in the world,.. and reputational harm.
There are two impacts
Civilian infrastructure
Kostyuk et al 18 explain (Nadiya Kostyuk a Fellow for the Cybersecurity Project at the Belfer Center, Scott Powell a former Army officer and 2005 graduate of the United States Military Academy, Matt Skach a PhD candidate in the Department of Computer Science and Engineering at the University of Michigan, and a combat engineer in the 1433rd Engineering Company of the Michigan Army National Guard, The Cyber Defense Review, Spring 2018, “Determinants of the Cyber Escalation Latter”, https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/26427380 // DOA: 10/18/19) JDE
“Continuing to escalate from minor to major damaging attacks...nuclear strike.”
Banking sector
Mee and Schermann 2018 explain(Paul Mee, partner at consulting firm Oliver Wyman and leads its cyber risk practice. Til Schuermann, partner in Oliver Wyman’s financial services practice and was a senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during the financial crisis. SEPTEMBER 14, 2018.“How a Cyber Attack Could Cause the Next Financial Crisis,”Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2018/09/how-a-cyber-attack-could-cause-the-next-financial-crisis. DOA: 10/29/19) AO
Ever since the forced bankruptcy of the investment bank Lehman Brothers... other risks.
A collapse of the global banking system would be devastating
The IMF reveals in 2013 (IMF, international Monetary Fund. March 14, 2013. IMF.org. “JOBS AND GROWTH: ANALYTICAL AND OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE FUND”, https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/031413.pdf?fbclid=IwAR25z8YmNU34qzj8tb7SOk5yi2xlPWZV6z-LN_jJ-kUZ4JqnCqpiOwr23LM . DOA: July 22, 2019.) ALP
At the same time that jobs are the number one priority... Situation and Prospects, 2013). | 904,241 |
365,261 | 379,253 | Aff | Sole Contention Diplomacy
Dougherty and Thomas 2020 Dougherty and Thomas 2020 (Chris Dougherty,Kaleigh Thomas, 1-17-2020, "Sending Troops Back to the Middle East Won’t Stop Iran," Defense One, https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/01/sending-troops-back-middle-east-wont-stop-iran/162523/ DoA 3/12/20) JJ
“Even... Iraq”.
Reuters 20 (Reuters, 2-16-2020, "Rouhani says Iran will never yield to U.S. pressure for talks," Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-politics-rouhani-usa/rouhani-says-iran-will-never-yield-to-u-s-pressure-for-talks-idUSKBN20A0EG // DOA: 4/1/20)JDE
“Trump...conference.”
Hazbun 19 (Waleed Hazbun, Richard L. Chambers Professor of Middle Eastern Studies in the Department of Political Science at the University of Alabama. March 2019. “In America’s Wake: Turbulence and Insecurity in the Middle East” POMEPS Studies. https://pomeps.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/POMEPS_Studies_34_Web.pdf. DOA: March 14 2020) SRW
“Teir ...escalation.”
Cunningham 19 (Erin Cunningham is a Middle East reporter covering Iran, Turkey, Syria and the wider region, Washington Post, Jul 10 2019, “Allies in the Persian Gulf pushed the U.S. to confront Iran. Now they’re not sure what they want.”, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/allies-in-the-persian-gulf-pushed-the-us-to-confront-iran-now-theyre-not-sure-what-they-want/2019/07/09/89f44ad4-9767-11e9-9a16-dc551ea5a43b_story.html // DOA: 4/1/20)JDE
““Time...states.””
Kaye 2020 (March 26, 2020 Dalia Dassa Kaye, Director, Center for Middle East Public Policy; Senior Political Scientist at RAND, “Covid-19 Impats on strategic dynamics in the middle east,” RAND https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/03/covid-19-impacts-on-strategic-dynamics-in-the-middle.html DOA: 4/1/20) HS
“U.S.-Iran... priorities.”
Parsi 2020 (TRITA PARSI, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and Adjunct Associate Professor at Georgetown University. JANUARY 6, 2020. “The Middle East Is More Stable When the United States Stays Away,” Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/06/the-middle-east-is-more-stable-when-the-united-states-stays-away/. DOA: 3/22/20)AO
“To... it.”
Ulrichsen 20(Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, PHD International Relations Fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, February 2020, Baker Institute for Public Policy, “REBALANCING REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE PERSIAN GULF,” https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/files/de9f09e6/cme-pub-persiangulf-022420.pdf DOA 3/26/2020) CJV
“Just...region.”53
Parsi 2020 (TRITA PARSI, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and Adjunct Associate Professor at Georgetown University. JANUARY 6, 2020. “The Middle East Is More Stable When the United States Stays Away,” Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/06/the-middle-east-is-more-stable-when-the-united-states-stays-away/. DOA: 3/22/20)AO
“Yet... it?”
Gause 2017 (F. Gregory Gause, Head of the International Affairs Department at Texas AandM University, focused on the international politics of the Middle East. June 12, 2017. Cambridge University Press. “Ideologies, Alignments, and Underbalancing in the New Middle East Cold War”, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/ideologies-alignments-and-underbalancing-in-the-new-middle-east-cold-war/739C0AB7ACDAD0E8ADE7D36C3CD37AA6 . DOA: March 11, 2020.) ALP
“The...policies.”
Harb 2019 (Imad K Harb, Imad K Harb is Director of Research and Analysis at Arab Center Washington DC. 16 Oct 2019. “Saudi Arabia and Iran may finally be ready for rapprochement,” Aljazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/saudi-arabia-iran-finally-ready-rapprochement-191015103242982.html. DOA: 3/22/20)AO
“One...comparison.”
Ward 19 (Alex Ward, writer for Vox. Published 7-8-2019. "“A nasty, brutal fight”: what a US-Iran war would look like," Vox, https://www.vox.com/world/2019/7/8/18693297/us-iran-war-trump-nuclear-iraq. DOA 3-26-2020) GKH
“A...Republic.”
Etzioni 19 (Amitai Etzioni, served as a senior advisor to the Carter White House. Published 10-6-2019. " Trump's Parting Gift: An Iran with Nuclear Weapons," National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/trumps-parting-gift-iran-nuclear-weapons-86136. DOA 3-25-2020) GKH
“If...community.”
CNN 20 (CNN Editorial Research. March 22nd, 2020. “Iran's Nuclear Capabilities Fast Facts.” CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2013/11/07/world/meast/irans-nuclear-capabilities-fast-facts/index.html DOA 3/26/20) GSH
“The...production.”
Farley 19(Robert Farley, received his Ph.D. for Political Science. “Why Israel Would Start a Nuclear War,” 9/12/2019, National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-israel-would-start-nuclear-war-80016. DOA: 10/18/2019) DE
“If...facilities.”
Turse 13(Nick Turse, writer for Mother Jones magazine. Published: May 13, 2013. “What Would Happen if Israel Nuked Iran,” Mother Jones, https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/05/nuclear-strike-tehran-israel/. DOA: 10/24/19) JG
Its...detonation.
Thus we affirm | 904,305 |
365,262 | 379,273 | bAd renewables aff | see open source | 904,326 |
365,263 | 379,280 | 1nc security | ====There are no physical impacts to cyber-threats which proves that cyber-security is threat conflation and justifies securitization====
Myriam Dunn **Cavelty ~~1~~ 12**, lecturer for security studies and a senior researcher in the field of risk and resilience at the Center for Security Studies, "The militarisation of cyber security as a source of global tension," STRATEGIC TRENDS 2012: Key Developments in Global Affaris ed. by Daniel Möckli, Center for Security Studies, p. 114-21, fwang/BWSDL
====OCOs link, PERIOD- threat conflation, government reactions, and current OCO strategies securitize US cyber relations; BEST empirics prove====
**Smeets 19** Max Smeets, 11-13-2019, NATO Allies Need to Come to Terms With Offensive Cyber Operations, Max Smeets is a senior researcher at the Center for Security Studies (CSS). He is also an Affiliate at Stanford University Center for International Security and Cooperation and Research Associate at the Centre for Technology and Global Affairs, University of Oxford. He was awarded the annual 2018 Amos Perlmutter Prize of the Journal of Strategic Studies for the most outstanding manuscript submitted for publication by a junior faculty member. In 2015, he also received the Young Writers Award of the German Marshall Fund, for an article written together with George Bogden. Max was previously a postdoctoral fellow and lecturer at Stanford University CISAC and a College Lecturer at Keble College, University of Oxford. He has also held research and fellowship positions at New America, Columbia University SIPA, Sciences Po CERI and NATO CCD COE. Before his academic career, Max has worked in finance in London and Amsterdam. He received a BA in Economics, Politics and Statistics summa cum laude from University College Roosevelt, Utrecht University and an M.Phil (Brasenose College) and DPhil (St. John’s College) in International Relations from the University of Oxford., https://www.lawfareblog.com/nato-allies-need-come-terms-offensive-cyber-operations, BWSDL
====People, especially those without expertise in subjects, are psychologically predisposed to conflate risks—this predisposition pressures action where none is needed.====
Myriam Dunn **Cavelty ~~2~~ 12**, lecturer for security studies and a senior researcher in the field of risk and resilience at the Center for Security Studies, "The militarisation of cyber security as a source of global tension," STRATEGIC TRENDS 2012: Key Developments in Global Affaris ed. by Daniel Möckli, Center for Security Studies, p. 114-21, fwang/BWSDL
====Cybersecurity creates an omnipresent environment of threat that ensures total war – security measures constitute the dangers they attempt to resolve====
**Väliaho 14**
Pasi Väliaho, Senior Lecturer in Film and Screen Studies at Goldsmiths, University of London, Biopolitical Screens: Image, Power, and the Neoliberal Brain, MIT Press, p. 86-7, fwang BWSDL
====US militarism creates a permanent state of war against to justify its expansion====
**Shor 10**
~~Fran Shor, History Department at Wayne State University, 2010, Journal of Critical Globalisation Studies Issue 2, "War in the Era of Declining U.S. Global Hegemony", pg 73-74 jf~~ | 904,333 |
365,264 | 379,285 | hi | if you want our cases email [email protected] or fb message Aerin Mann | 904,338 |
365,265 | 379,288 | January - Regime Change | open sourced, all evidence is cut below | 904,341 |
365,266 | 379,291 | Contact | Please email [email protected] for disclosure. | 904,344 |
365,267 | 379,292 | Pronouns | 1A: Adarsh Iyyavoo (he/him)
2A: Anish Iyyavoo (they/them) | 904,345 |
365,268 | 379,293 | 0 - Contact Info | Contact information:
Danny An: 858 333 2508
Benjamin Peng: 858 538 3895
Email [email protected] or [email protected] for any case disclosure questions. | 904,346 |
365,269 | 380,133 | BRI Environment Aff V2 | Our sole contention is: A Green BRI
Right now the BRI invests in black energy as Meng 18 writes 60 percent of BRI investments go into coal and oil. Gallagher 18 from Tufts University notes that China uses the most inefficient and carbon intensive form of plants. Just 50 Chinese coal plants emit more than triple the US’ total annual emissions.
The aff changes this in 3 key ways.
First: Horizon Europe
Breyer 18 states that, Horizon Europe, which is an EU project that funds research into green tech , is severely underfunded. That’s because the European Commission in 18 explains that in the past, China invested in Horizon Europe, but recently there has been a drop in Chinese investment. Luckily, Sharma 18 tells us were the EU to join the BRI, the EU would want China to increase investment into the EU’s pre-existing research projects, like Horizon Europe. Horizon Europe funds the installation of green tech across the globe and helps researchers develop more efficient forms of renewable energy, that’s why The European Commission in 18 quantifies that if fully implemented, Horizon Europe could reduce CO2 emissions by 40 percent.
Second: Integrating Supply Chains
Rabe 16 tells us that right now, china owns up to 90 percent of the raw materials required to make green tech. Problematically, significant bottlenecks in production, government barriers to trade, and a lack of communication are pushing up prices and making it harder for EU companies to manufacture green tech. Currently, if a Chinese producer makes price changes or imposes new regulations on the materials needed for green tech, buyers in the EU won’t be informed beforehand. This makes green tech. production more expensive and volatile. Luckily, Lee 17 writes for the Institute of International Affairs that the BRI would allow the EU and China to streamline green tech production and remove barriers to manufacturing, therefore decreasing green tech prices by 20 percent globally. Lower renewable energy prices make fossil fuels more costly and less viable, thus decreasing their use. The US Department of Energy 17 quantifies that this reduction in the use of fossil fuels would reduce emissions by up to 20 percent.
Third: Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
Kiss 2018 of the Policy Corner writes, if the EU joined the BRI and gained membership status with the 100 billion dollar Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, or AIIB they would be a large enough block to maintain a de facto veto power over all projects funded by the Chinese national bank. This means that all future fossil fuel projects will be halted Ambrose 19 tells us that veto power will be used to stop these coal projects because eu banks will be barred from lending to fossil fuels starting in 2020. Peiser 19 clarifies that china will be prevented from implementing it’s plans to build up to 300 more coal plants in the near future.
There are two impacts
First: Pollution
Mood 16 writes in the Journal of Medical Science that greenhouse gas emissions can be deadly for local populations, leading to respiratory or cardiovascular diseases, and long-term chronic diseases such as cancer. Ledford 8 notes that exposure to air pollution increases the chance that deadly, inheritable, genetic mutations occur by 60 percent. Problematically, Granoff 15 tells us the majority of coal plants are built in low-income and indigenous communities that lack financial and political power, which is why the poor are 2x more likely to die from pollution related deaths than the wealthy. Cooling one coal plant requires an olympic swimming pool worth of water every 3 minutes, which is why coal plants take away access to water from 1.2 billion people every year. In developing countries, a 10 percent decline in water availability decreases income by 20 percent because the lack of usable water decreases crop yields. That’s why Oxfam 15 quantifies that in the neg world, coal pollution will push 122 million people into extreme poverty by 2030.
Second: Access to Energy
McDermott 19 1.1 billion people don’t have access to modern energy infrastructure. Robert 15 tells us that access to energy is a prerequisite to any human development or solving poverty because those who don’t have energy can barely meet basic needs like cooking, heating and lighting get transportation to healthcare and education services. Roberts 17 tells us that the biggest barrier to energy access in the developing world, isn’t that the country doesn’t have enough energy in the region, it’s because it’s too costly to hook up the poor to energy grids. There’s no correlation between coal and energy access because this energy goes towards wealthy urban areas and industry. The solution is small independent household solar panels, or micro grids. These are self-contained solar panels that don’t need to be hooked up to an energy grid, which is why they actually can give the impoverished access to energy. Spreading energy gets people out of poverty with Wharton 14 quantifying, rural individuals with to energy are 10 percent more likely to be employed than those without access. | 905,430 |
365,270 | 380,188 | NOVDEC ~-~- Satellites | OCO’s destroy satellite systems and deter them from being built. It’s happening right now.
Sellin 19
Cyberattacks on space-based systems can produce data loss, service disruptions, sensor interference or the permanent loss of satellite capabilities. An adversary could potentially seize control of a satellite through a cyberattack on its command-and-control system, subtly corrupt the data it provides, or even redirect its orbit, essentially transforming it into a kinetic weapon against other space infrastructure. According to a recently released Royal Institute of International Affairs report, “Cybersecurity of NATO’s Space-based Strategic Assets,” it is not just American tactical systems that are vulnerable, where, for example, during the invasion of Iraq in 2003, 68 percent of U.S. munitions were guided using space-based technology. It also affects confidence in the performance of our strategic systems without which we could not effectively defend ourselves, such as disrupting the automated responses of missile defense systems, or deceiving us into miscalculation, quite literally, stumbling into war. Just this month, Iran was reportedly jamming the Global Positioning System navigation system to divert ships into Iranian territorial waters. Russian forces have also been jamming GPS systems in the Middle East including those of advanced U.S. F-22 and F-35 fighters stationed near Iranian airspace. Top of Form Bottom of Form The report warns that “the increasing vulnerability of space-based assets, ground stations, associated command and control systems, and the personnel who manage the systems, has not yet received the attention it deserves.” Major vulnerabilities increase exponentially with the use of commercial products for military purposes, the incorporation of dual-use technologies and the proliferation of private communication satellites. In her book “Space as a Strategic Asset,” Joan Johnson-Freese notes that during the Iraq War of 2003–11, there was a 560 percent increase in U.S. reliance on commercial satellites for military purposes. Although the Federal Communications Commission regulates commercial satellite infrastructure, it does not require applicants to demonstrate how they will cyber-harden their satellites, nor is there an overall federal policy or oversight agency concerned with securing commercial space assets. The Royal Institute’s report contends that the extent of the present gap between U.S. space cybersecurity and the existing threat is such that our satellite network should be considered already compromised and efforts should focus on resilience measures and a sense of urgency regarding the development of advanced techniques to identify and respond to the ever-increasing number of cyberattacks. The future of warfare will be defined by emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), quantum-based cryptography, quantum computing and the evolution of space-based internet infrastructure. While the U.S. government is struggling to organize its AI strategy, China is executing an extremely aggressive multibillion-dollar plan for government investment into AI research and applications.
Satellites key to military defense.
Sellin 19
Cyberattacks on space-based systems can produce data loss, service disruptions, sensor interference or the permanent loss of satellite capabilities. An adversary could potentially seize control of a satellite through a cyberattack on its command-and-control system, subtly corrupt the data it provides, or even redirect its orbit, essentially transforming it into a kinetic weapon against other space infrastructure. According to a recently released Royal Institute of International Affairs report, “Cybersecurity of NATO’s Space-based Strategic Assets,” it is not just American tactical systems that are vulnerable, where, for example, during the invasion of Iraq in 2003, 68 percent of U.S. munitions were guided using space-based technology. It also affects confidence in the performance of our strategic systems without which we could not effectively defend ourselves, such as disrupting the automated responses of missile defense systems, or deceiving us into miscalculation, quite literally, stumbling into causing war. Just this month, Iran wais reportedly jamming the Global Positioning System GPS navigation system to divert ships into Iranian territorial waters. Russian forces have also been jamming GPS systems in the Middle East including those of advanced U.S. F-22 and F-35 fighters stationed near Iranian airspace. Top of Form Bottom of Form The report warns that “the increasing vulnerability of space-based assets, ground stations, associated command and control systems, and the personnel who manage the systems, has not yet received the attention it deserves.” Major vulnerabilities increase exponentially with the use of commercial products for military purposes, the incorporation of dual-use technologies and the proliferation of private communication satellites. In her book “Space as a Strategic Asset,” Joan Johnson-Freese notes that during the Iraq War of 2003–11, there was a 560 percent increase in U.S. reliance on commercial satellites for military purposes. Although the Federal Communications Commission regulates commercial satellite infrastructure, it does not require applicants to demonstrate how they will cyber-harden their satellites, nor is there an overall federal policy or oversight agency concerned with securing commercial space assets. The Royal Institute’s report contends that the extent of the present gap between U.S. space cybersecurity and the existing threat is such that our satellite network should be considered already compromised and efforts should focus on resilience measures and a sense of urgency regarding the development of advanced techniques to identify and respond to the ever-increasing number of cyberattacks. The future of warfare will be defined by emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), quantum-based cryptography, quantum computing and the evolution of space-based internet infrastructure. While the U.S. government is struggling to organize its AI strategy, China is executing an extremely aggressive multibillion-dollar plan for government investment into AI research and applications.
Satellites are the only way to go green.
That tech is solar satellites. As first conceptualized in 1968 by Peter Glaser, an engineer, these huge arrays — lightweight frames several miles across that would hold thin panels — would orbit 22,000 miles above the equator in a geosynchronous orbit. Because of the Earth’s tilt, satellites in this orbit are never in its shadow. That means they would be constantly exposed to sunlight, which they would convert into electricity. They would then use a cellphone-like microwave signal to send that electricity safely down to equally large antennas on the ground below them anywhere on the planet, and into the grid. Each of these satellites would transmit 3,000 to 15,000 megawatts to the ground, enough to power several cities. Today, 1,000 megawatts will supply 1 million American homes with constant power. (Wireless energy transmission may seem implausible, but we’ve had the capacity to pull it off as far back as 1975. That’s when NASA and the Raytheon used satellite components to send a wireless microwave electric signal across a mile-wide valley in Goldstone, Calif.) Glaser spent decades testifying before Congress about the engineering and environmental benefits of these satellites, as did Ralph Nansen, who headed Boeing’s solar satellite program in the 1980s and 1990s, and John Mankins, who headed NASA’s Advanced Programs Office in the 1990s and early 2000s. As the oil embargo hit the United States in the 1970s (when much of our electricity came from burning oil), Congress asked NASA’s contractors to update Glaser’s plan. The proposals that General Dynamics, Boeing and others dreamed up built on our previous experience with moon exploration by astronauts, which ended in 1972, and NASA’s first space station, Skylab, which launched in 1973. With these past successes, some posited that astronauts could build Skylab-like space stations in Low Earth Orbit 200 miles up, where crews and robots would assemble the enormous satellites. Then rockets would slowly boost the finished satellites up to their 22,000-mile home. The General Dynamics proposal even suggested that factories could be built on the moon, 220,000 miles from Earth. They would manufacture solar satellite components from local materials, then launch them back toward earth and into their geosynchronous orbit. Because of the moon’s very low gravity and lack of atmosphere, costs would be 10 percent of launching from Earth. Though that doesn’t account for the costs and complexities of setting up manufacturing facilities on the moon, it’s still a huge deal, given that satellites would weigh tens of thousands of tons each. As aerospace engineers of the era knew all too well, though, the real limit wasn’t the sky; it was the federal budget. These plans would have cost more than the entire Apollo program. But the real showstopper was that solar satellite electricity would have cost far more than electricity produced on the ground, so the designs were shelved. In every decade since then, Mankins and others reran the numbers using improved rockets and lighter sat components. Costs dropped, but not enough. In 2014, Mankins’s book “The Case For Space Solar Power” used even better numbers. But he was still five years too early. Last year, Paul Jaffe at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, another Glaser fan, developed solar satellite components that weigh a tenth as much as they did five years ago. A group at Caltech did the same. Glaser’s proposed 10-mile-wide satellites would be 1,000 to 3,000 yards across, depending on the design. Today, private rocket companies such as SpaceX and Blue Origin use reusable rockets to launch satellites for a third of the 2014 cost. According to NASA, the Block 2 versions of their huge new SLS rocket, if mass-produced for this market, could match or beat those costs. Jaffe and Mankins say these improvements will now let this constant solar satellite power beats better the price of fossil fuel and nuclear power around the world. NASA’s current plan to return astronauts to the moon in 2024 could be modified to seek out sites to manufacture solar satellites. During the past decade, satellites orbiting the moon have discovered enormous caves, called lava tubes, which could house these factories and protect them from the radiation and wild temperature swings on the surface. The interiors of some of these caves are over a mile high and many miles long. Other lunar satellites have analyzed metal ores on the surface that can be processed and used to build solar satellite components. They’ve even found ice in deep craters. Once processed, this would sustain the astronauts, and would provide rocket fuel to launch the components. If the United States did pursue such projects, we would be joining a new space race that’s already in progress. China announced plans this year to build its own solar satellites, which could allow it to dominate today’s $4 trillion electricity market, just as it dominates the solar panel market today. But because our space tech is so much better than China’s, our solar satellites could grab that market — and the high-wage aerospace jobs that would come with it — before 2030. Then there’s the Green New Deal, which calls for trillions of taxpayer dollars to be spent developing an as-yet unknown technology to cut America’s carbon dioxide emissions and save the planet. We produce only 15 percent of worldwide emissions, but we The US could sell our solar satellites and their fishnet-like suspended ground antennas to all the nations on Earth. Farming and ranching could safely continue beneath these antennas, while trillions of income tax dollars could flow into, instead of out of, U.S. federal coffers. Congress could tell NASA to get the first assembly station and solar satellite prototype in orbit by 2024 with, say, an extra $20 billion a year for a decade. That $200 billion is big bucks, but it’s far from the GND trillions. As a comparative percentage of today’s gross domestic product, the Apollo program would cost $702.3 billion today. Once that solar sat infrastructure is in place, it’s very likely that private investors would surface to take over this technology, just as they’ve done with NASA’s communications satellites. Congress could hold early hearings on this topic in December, during the next big U.N. climate meeting (COP 25) in Chile. Mankins, Jaffe and others could testify, along with the head of NASA. Thunberg herself might be glad to learn that the U.S. Congress and NASA want to bring her dreams back from the moon. Some say that’s where all the lost things go.
Climate change is linear – any reduction of emissions is necessary to limit immense suffering
Wallace-Wells 19 (David Wallace-Wells is a National Fellow with the New America Foundation and is a deputy editor of New York Magazine, “The Cautious Case for Climate Optimism Believing in a comfortable future for our planet probably means some giant carbon-sucking machines,” New York Magazine, February 4, 2019, http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/02/book-excerpt-the-uninhabitable-earth-david-wallace-wells.html)
It’s not too late. In fact, it never will be. Whatever you may have read over the past year — as extreme weather brought a global heat wave and unprecedented wildfires burned through 1.6 million California acres and newspaper headlines declared, “Climate Change Is Here” — global warming is not binary. It is not a matter of “yes” or “no,” not a question of “fucked” or “not.” Instead, it is a problem that gets worse over time the longer we produce greenhouse gas, and can be made better if we choose to stop. Which means that no matter how hot it gets, no matter how fully climate change transforms the planet and the way we live on it, it will always be the case that the next decade could contain more warming, and more suffering, or less warming and less suffering. Just how much is up to us, and always will be. A century and a half after the greenhouse effect was first identified, and a few decades since climate denial and misinformation began muddying our sense of what scientists do know, we are left with a set of predictions that can appear falsifiable — about global temperatures and sea-level rise and even hurricane frequency and wildfire volume. And there are, it is true, feedback loops in the climate system that we do not yet perfectly understand and dynamic processes that remain mysterious. But to the extent that we live today under clouds of uncertainty about the future of climate change, those clouds are, overwhelmingly, not projections of collective ignorance about the natural world but of blindness about the human one, and they can be dispersed by human action. The question of how bad things will get is not, actually, a test of the science; it is a bet on human activity. How much will we do to forestall disaster and how quickly? These are the disconcerting, contradictory lessons of global warming, which counsels both human humility and human grandiosity, each drawn from the same perception of peril. There’s a name for those who hold the fate of the world in their hands, as we do — gods. But for the moment, at least, many of us seem inclined to run from that responsibility rather than embrace it. Or even admit we see it, though it sits in front of us as plainly as a steering wheel. That climate change is all-enveloping means that it targets us all and that we must all share in the responsibility so we do not all share in the suffering — at least not share in so suffocatingly much of it. Since I first began writing about climate a few years ago, I’ve been asked often whether I see any reason for optimism. The thing is, I am optimistic. But optimism is always a matter of perspective, and mine is this: No one wants to believe disaster is coming, but those who look, do. At about two degrees Celsius of warming, just one degree north of where we are today, some of the planet’s ice sheets are expected to begin their collapse, eventually bringing, over centuries, perhaps as much as 50 feet of sea-level rise. In the meantime, major cities in the equatorial band of the planet will become unlivable. There will be, it has been estimated, 32 times as many extreme heat waves in India, and even in the northern latitudes, heat waves will kill thousands each summer. Given only conventional methods of decarbonization (replacing dirty-energy sources like coal and oil with clean ones like wind and solar), this is probably our best-case scenario. It is also what is called — so often nowadays the phrase numbs the lips — “catastrophic warming.” A representative from the Marshall Islands spoke for many of the world’s island nations when he used another word to describe the meaning of two degrees: genocide. You do not need to contemplate worst-case scenarios to be alarmed; this best-case scenario is alarming enough. Two degrees would be terrible, but it’s better than three, at which point Southern Europe would be in permanent drought, African droughts would last five years on average, and the areas burned annually by wildfires in the United States could quadruple, or worse, from last year’s million-plus acres. And three degrees is much better than four, at which point six natural disasters could strike a single community simultaneously; the number of climate refugees, already in the millions, could grow tenfold, or 20-fold, or more; and, globally, damages from warming could reach $600?trillion — about double all the wealth that exists in the world today. We are on track for more warming still — just above four degrees by 2100, the U.N. estimates. So if optimism is always a matter of perspective, the possibility of four degrees shapes mine.
Warming causes extinction
Yangyang Xu and Ramanathan 17, Assistant Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas AandM University; and Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, 9/26/17, “Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 114, No. 39, p. 10315-10323
We are proposing the following extension to the DAI risk categorization: warming greater than 1.5 °C as “dangerous”; warming greater than 3 °C as “catastrophic?”; and warming in excess of 5 °C as “unknown??,” with the understanding that changes of this magnitude, not experienced in the last 20+ million years, pose existential threats to a majority of the population. The question mark denotes the subjective nature of our deduction and the fact that catastrophe can strike at even lower warming levels. The justifications for the proposed extension to risk categorization are given below. From the IPCC burning embers diagram and from the language of the Paris Agreement, we infer that the DAI begins at warming greater than 1.5 °C. Our criteria for extending the risk category beyond DAI include the potential risks of climate change to the physical climate system, the ecosystem, human health, and species extinction. Let us first consider the category of catastrophic (3 to 5 °C warming). The first major concern is the issue of tipping points. Several studies (48, 49) have concluded that 3 to 5 °C global warming is likely to be the threshold for tipping points such as the collapse of the western Antarctic ice sheet, shutdown of deep water circulation in the North Atlantic, dieback of Amazon rainforests as well as boreal forests, and collapse of the West African monsoon, among others. While natural scientists refer to these as abrupt and irreversible climate changes, economists refer to them as catastrophic events (49). Warming of such magnitudes also has catastrophic human health effects. Many recent studies (50, 51) have focused on the direct influence of extreme events such as heat waves on public health by evaluating exposure to heat stress and hyperthermia. It has been estimated that the likelihood of extreme events (defined as 3-sigma events), including heat waves, has increased 10-fold in the recent decades (52). Human beings are extremely sensitive to heat stress. For example, the 2013 European heat wave led to about 70,000 premature mortalities (53). The major finding of a recent study (51) is that, currently, about 13.6 of land area with a population of 30.6 is exposed to deadly heat. The authors of that study defined deadly heat as exceeding a threshold of temperature as well as humidity. The thresholds were determined from numerous heat wave events and data for mortalities attributed to heat waves. According to this study, a 2 °C warming would double the land area subject to deadly heat and expose 48 of the population. A 4 °C warming by 2100 would subject 47 of the land area and almost 74 of the world population to deadly heat, which could pose existential risks to humans and mammals alike unless massive adaptation measures are implemented, such as providing air conditioning to the entire population or a massive relocation of most of the population to safer climates. Climate risks can vary markedly depending on the socioeconomic status and culture of the population, and so we must take up the question of “dangerous to whom?” (54). Our discussion in this study is focused more on people and not on the ecosystem, and even with this limited scope, there are multitudes of categories of people. We will focus on the poorest 3 billion people living mostly in tropical rural areas, who are still relying on 18th-century technologies for meeting basic needs such as cooking and heating. Their contribution to CO2 pollution is roughly 5 compared with the 50 contribution by the wealthiest 1 billion (55). This bottom 3 billion population comprises mostly subsistent farmers, whose livelihood will be severely impacted, if not destroyed, with a one- to five-year megadrought, heat waves, or heavy floods; for those among the bottom 3 billion of the world’s population who are living in coastal areas, a 1- to 2-m rise in sea level (likely with a warming in excess of 3 °C) poses existential threat if they do not relocate or migrate. It has been estimated that several hundred million people would be subject to famine with warming in excess of 4 °C (54). However, there has essentially been no discussion on warming beyond 5 °C. Climate change-induced species extinction is one major concern with warming of such large magnitudes (5 °C). The current rate of loss of species is ?1,000-fold the historical rate, due largely to habitat destruction. At this rate, about 25 of species are in danger of extinction in the coming decades (56). Global warming of 6 °C or more (accompanied by increase in ocean acidity due to increased CO2) can act as a major force multiplier and expose as much as 90 of species to the dangers of extinction (57). The bodily harms combined with climate change-forced species destruction, biodiversity loss, and threats to water and food security, as summarized recently (58), motivated us to categorize warming beyond 5 °C as unknown??, implying the possibility of existential threats. Fig. 2 displays these three risk categorizations (vertical dashed lines). | 905,485 |
365,271 | 379,142 | Gulf Neg Security K V1 | Pretending American military presence is for the benefit of non-American entities assists in American securitization justifying imperialism
Engelhardt, Tom, and John Feffer. “The Imperial Unconscious.” Institute for Policy Studies, Institute for Policy Studies, 1 Mar. 2009, ips-dc.org/the_imperial_unconscious/.
U.S. goals in Afghanistan must be 'modest, realistic,' and 'above
TO
realities, which, in perilous times, can be dangerous indeed
Representations can’t be divorced from policy actions- they establish a framework for thinking about the Middle East. They selectively reveal and conceal aspects of the Middle East to represent it as conflict prone
Bilgin, Pinar. Regional Security in the Middle East: A Critical Perspective. RoutledgeCurzon, 2005.
the Middle East remained
TO
neglect of the socio-economic one) and relied on military tools
Security is a speech act that manufactures low probability threats and worst case scenarios in order to build up the state’s defenses and defend its territory
Lipschutz, Ronnie D., editor. On Security Edited by Ronnie D. Lipschutz. Columbia University Press, 1995.
The logic of security implies that one political
TO
intended to convey certain imagined scenarios in the mind of the other state.
The affirmative’s securitizing representations treat security as an a priori, legitimizing the WMD suicide pact and billions of deaths.
Der Derian, James. Critical Practices in International Theory: Selected Essays. Routledge, 2009
No other concept in international relations
TO
the center by remapping the peripheral threats
The kritik turns their case –Securitization perpetuates the violence and wars the aff attempts to solve.
Ukeje, Charles. (2010). Rethinking Africa's Security in the Age of Uncertain Globalisation: NEPAD and Human Security in the 21st Century. African Journal of International Affairs. 11. 10.4314/ajia.v11i1.57258.
‘human security’ is far too universalistic
TO
state security further allows official violence to multiply
The alternative is to reject the affirmative’s appeals to securitization. Questioning the conditions of possibility for power relations created through the affirmative’s representations refuses to participate in calculative and depoliticizing worst case scenario predictions.
Edkins, Jenny. Poststructuralism and International Relations: Bringing the Political Back In. Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1999.
"politics" is an area of activity that in modern Western society
TO
made conceivable this particular representation of power | 904,171 |
365,272 | 379,174 | Blake DE Con 24 | Card Appendix
I) Tariffs
General Information
Khanna 2019 (Parag Khanna, author of the book The Future Is Asian, PhD in International Relations from London School of Economics, Masters in Security Studies from Georgetown, B.S in International Affairs from Georgetown. April 30, 2019. Politico Magazine. “Washington Is Dismissing China’s Belt and Road. That’s a Huge Strategic Mistake”, https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/04/30/washington-is-dismissing-chinas-belt-and-road-thats-a-huge-strategic-mistake-226759 . DOA: July 5, 2019.) SP
SINGAPORE — Last week, leaders… sitting on the sidelines.
Europe joining is the ultimate goal and is a political success.
Le Corre 2019 (Philippe Le Corre, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. May 9, 2019. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “On China’s Expanding Influence in Europe and Eurasia”, https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/05/09/on-china-s-expanding-influence-in-europe-and-eurasia-pub-79094 . DOA: July 19, 2019.) ALP
With regards to the latter… re-labelled as 17+1.
Trade negotiations between the EU and China could lead Trump to counter with tariffs.
Trigkas 2018 (Vasilis Trigkas, Onassis Scholar and research fellow in the Belt and Road Strategy Centre. July 6, 2018. South China Morning Post. “Nato and China summits give Europe a chance to assert its interests and stabilise the global order”, https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2153948/nato-and-china-summits-give-europe-chance . DOA: July 23, 2019.) ALP
In Beijing, EU leaders… EU’s crown jewels.
Trump doesn’t take economics into consideration with tariffs
Von der Burchard 2019 (Hans Von der Burchard, a general assignment reporter at POLITICO completing his German-French Master Program in European Studies, specializing in International Relations and Security Politics, at the University of Frankfurt. 21 July 2019. “Europe braces for Trump trade war,” Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-braces-for-trump-trade-war/. DOA 8/22/19.) WD
Jürgen Matthes from the German Economy Institute… probability of car tariffs."
The EU economy is doing well
CIA 2019 (The Central Intelligence Agency of the United States. Last updated 17 September 2019. “Economy:: European Union,” CIA, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ee.html. DOA 9/20/19.) WD
The EU economy… just under 2.
Auto tariffs on the EU would be very damaging to the German economy and by consequence the whole EU.
Isaac 2019 (Anna Isaac, reporter for the Wall Street Journal, was of the Guardian. June 8, 2019. The Telegraph. “Germany braced for catastrophic Trump auto tariffs - which could create a perfect storm for Europe”, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/06/08/germany-braced-catastrophic-trump-auto-tariffs-could-create/ . DOA: July 23, 2019.) ALP
Germany is braced… following research in Brussels.
The EU will fall into a recession if Germany is doing poorly
Ewing 2019 (Jack Ewing, a writer on business, banking, economics and monetary policy from Frankfurt. 16 August 2019. “Germany Has Powered Europe’s Economy. What Happens When Its Engine Stalls?”, The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/16/business/eu-economy-germany-recession.html. DOA 8/18/19.) WD
Most economists are… if the situation gets worse.
U.S. recession causes a domino effect
Mauldin 2018 (John Mauldin, financial writer, publisher, and New York Times bestselling-author, President of the investment advisory firm Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC, 24 May 2018, Forbes, "The 2020s Might Be The Worst Decade In U.S. History", https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2018/05/24/the-2020s-might-be-the-worst-decade-in-u-s-history/1#49cc3da548d3, Accessed 12/03/2018) IW
I recently wrote… not just the rich.
900 million people could fall into poverty after an economic shock.
IMF 2013 (IMF, international Monetary Fund. March 14, 2013. IMF.org. “JOBS AND GROWTH: ANALYTICAL AND OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE FUND”, https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/031413.pdf?fbclid=IwAR25z8YmNU34qzj8tb7SOk5yi2xlPWZV6z-LN_jJ-kUZ4JqnCqpiOwr23LM . DOA: July 22, 2019.) ALP
At the same time… of adverse shocks (UN, World Economic Situation and Prospects, 2013).
II) Climate Change
The world is transitioning to renewable energy
Ren21 19(Thinktank and Global Multi-Shareholder Network focused on Renewable Energy, 2019, “Perspectives on the Global Energy Transition”, https://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gsr_2019_perspectives_en.pdf DOA 8/14/19)KJR
The REN21 Renewables… energy transition is possible.
China also has a bunch of domestic reasons to quit BRI, including pensions, which will have to be cut to save it in the squo.
Pei 2019 (Minxin Pei, Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College, Chair in US-China relations at the Kluge Center of the Library of Congress. February 15, 2019. Nikkei Asian Review. “Will China let Belt and Road die quietly?”, https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Will-China-let-Belt-and-Road-die-quietly . DOA: July 13, 2019.) ALP
But the trouble… BRI 1.0, die quietly.
The BRI cannot be continuously funded without EU cash
Ciurtin 17 (Horia Ciurtin, legal adviser in the field of international investment law and international arbitration, December 2017, European Institute of Romania, “A PIVOT TO EUROPE: CHINA’S BELT-AND-ROAD BALANCING ACT,” http://ier.gov.ro/wp-content/uploads/publicatii/Final_Policy-Brief-5_Horia-Ciurtin-A-Pivot-to-Europe_web.pdf DOA 7/04/2019) CJV
For attaining these objectives… its marginal areas.
Many BRI projects are run almost entirely with coal and polluting materials, but China isn’t reprimanded by 125 other countries
Lelyveld 2019 (Michael Lelyveld, host for the podcast Radio Free Europe and contributor to Eurasia Review. 1 February 2019. “China’s Belt And Road Initiative Blackened By Coal – Analysis,” Eurasia Review, https://www.eurasiareview.com/01022019-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-blackened-by-coal-analysis/. DOA 7/8/19.) WD
As China’s massive… added capacity, it said.
China may export high emission industries to BRI partners
Teese 18(Patrick Teese, Administrative/Research Assistant at EESI, 20 Oct 2018, Environmental and Energy Study Institute, “Exploring the Environmental Repercussions of China’s Belt and Road Initiative”, https://www.eesi.org/articles/view/exploring-the-environmental-repercussions-of-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative, DOA 7/8/19)KJR
Despite China’s growing… single, discernable direction.
China is planning or building 300 new coal plants, which would set back progress made on climate change
Inskeep 2019 (Steve Inskeep, host of NPR's Morning Edition, as well as NPR's morning news podcast Up First. 29 April 2019. “Why Is China Placing A Global Bet on Coal?” NPR, https://www.npr.org/2019/04/29/716347646/why-is-china-placing-a-global-bet-on-coal. DOA 8/5/19) WD
Yet China's overseas ventures… U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Pollution kills more people than most other causes
Conca 2017 (James Conca, Trustee of the Herbert M. Parker Foundation, Adjunct at WSU, an Affiliate Scientist at LANL. Nov 7, 2017. “Pollution Kills More People Than Anything Else,” Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2017/11/07/pollution-kills-more-people-than-anything-else/#4d00bd071a35. DOA: 7/17/19)AO
The most comprehensive report… a global health epidemic.
1.5/2 degree deaths avoided
Profeta 2018 (Tim Profeta, founding director of the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions. “Study: Cutting Emissions Sooner Could Save 153 Million Lives This Century,” National Geographic, March 22 2018, https://blog.nationalgeographic.org/2018/03/22/study-cutting-emissions-sooner-could-save-153-million-lives-this-century/?fbclid=IwAR3EAqNS5MygVR3g-UQER5ctSy7aM9KjLdUUom1cNmri7QYQUX8tshi7vCc. DOA: 8/16/2019) DE
A new study… to pay it all back.” | 904,213 |
365,273 | 379,245 | 2020 TOC Silver Neg | Contention 1 is Terrorism.
Subpoint A is PMFs.
Within Iraq, there are proxy militias called Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMFs that counter-terror.
Mansour 17 explains that (Renad Mansour is an El-Erian fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center, Faleh A. Jabar is the director of the Iraq Institute for Strategic Studies, 4-28-2017, "The Popular Mobilization Forces and Iraq’s Future," Carnegie Middle East Center, https://carnegie-mec.org/2017/04/28/popular-mobilization-forces-and-iraq-s-future-pub-68810 // DOA: 3/12/20)JDE
The most powerful ... proxies for Tehran.
Fortunately, they are counterbalanced by the US military.
Jiyad 20 corroborates that (Sajad Jiyad, the managing director of Al-Bayan Center for Planning and Studies 1-29-2020, "Iraq Still Might Force the United States Out," War on the Rocks, https://warontherocks.com/2020/01/iraq-still-might-force-the-united-states-out/ // DOA: 3/10/20)JDE
Since the decision ...support Iraq’s security.
Thus, Jiyad concludes that (Sajad Jiyad, the managing director of Al-Bayan Center for Planning and Studies 1-29-2020, "Iraq Still Might Force the United States Out," War on the Rocks, https://warontherocks.com/2020/01/iraq-still-might-force-the-united-states-out/ // DOA: 3/10/20)JDE
The threat to cut ... Bina bloc will continue
The increased Iranian backed PMF influence is disastrous as it prevents the return of displaced Sunnis happening in the status quo.
Palani 20 states (Kamaran Palani, a Lecturer in International Relations at Salahaddin-University-Erbil and a Research Fellow at the Middle East Research Institute. Feb 18 2020. “Iraq and the US withdrawal conundrum” AlJazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/iraq-withdrawal-conundrum-200218182253463.html. DOA: Mar 22 2020) SRW
The Sunni perspective Attitudes ..."still in a period of turbulence".
Thus, the last time the US withdrew from Iraq, violent persecution of Sunni minorities occurred.
Nawzad 20 observes that (Kosar Nawzad, reporter for Kurdistan 24. Jan 10, 2020. “Kurds in disputed Kirkuk say US withdrawal from Iraq ‘will be a disaster’” Kurdistan 24. https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/916ed4bd-58d4-4dba-a7b2-c7a2103dc9b2 . DOA: April 10 2020) SRW
The leading proponents ...“ISIS is still there.”
Unfortunately, there are many Sunni’s still displaced right now, that in Affirmation, can’t return.
Zucchino 17 confirms that in Iraq, (David Zucchino, a contributing writer for The New York Times. He was awarded a Pulitzer Prize in 1989 for his reporting from South Africa. Oct 26 2017. “As ISIS Is Driven From Iraq, Sunnis Remain Alienated” NY Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/26/world/middleeast/iraq-isis-sunni.html. DOA: Mar 22 2020) SRW
Now that those ... political no-man’s land.
Subpoint B is US-led counter-terror.
Pulling US troops out of Iraq would hamper their counter terror efforts
Peterson 20 (Scott Peterson covers the Middle East for the Monitor from London with a special focus on Iran Iraq and Syria, CS Monitor, 1-7-2020, "US troops out of Iraq? What that would mean for both countries.," https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2020/0107/US-troops-out-of-Iraq-What-that-would-mean-for-both-countries // DOA: 3/22/20)JDE
“And the ramifications ...‘virtually non-existent’ without Coalition assistance.””
The impact is a humanitarian disaster.
Noack 20 (Rick Noack, Foreign affairs reporter focusing on Europe and international security, January 10 2020, “Here’s what might happen if the U.S. were to suddenly quit Iraq” The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/09/heres-what-might-happen-if-us-were-suddenly-quit-iraq/ DOA: March 21 2020) SP
It may end in humanitarian ... counter-ISIS campaign,” he said.
Contention 2 is Japan Proliferation.
Trump’s actions show Japan that US security guarantee is unreliable for Japan.
Fitzpatrick 19 observes that (Mark Fitzpatrick 19, 10-3-2019, MARK FITZPATRICK is an Associate Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the author of Asia’s Latent Nuclear Powers: Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. "How Japan Could Go Nuclear," Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2019-10-03/how-japan-could-go-nuclear // DOA: 4/9/2020 BP
In a speech on September 6, ... Tokyo toward nuclear proliferation.
Luckily, the perception of the US’ security commitment in the Middle East still reassures Japan.
Sachs 16 states, (, 5-31-2016, Natan Sachs is a fellow in and director of the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings. His work focuses on Israeli foreign policy, domestic politics, the Arab-Israeli conflict, and U.S.-Israeli relations. He is currently writing a book on Israeli grand strategy and its domestic origins. "Whose side are you on? Alliance credibility in the Middle East and Japan," Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2016/05/31/whose-side-are-you-on-alliance-credibility-in-the-middle-east-and-japan/ DOA: 4/9/2020 BP
Last week, President Obama … and choose their side.
Thus, withdrawal of military presence from the Middle East worries allies in Asia like Japan that they could be next.
Sly 19 articulates, (Liz Sly, Beirut bureau chief, covering Lebanon, Syria and the wider region for the Washington Post, Washington Post, Oct 16 2019, “The hasty U.S. pullback from Syria is a searing moment in America’s withdrawal from the Middle East”, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/the-hasty-us-pullback-from-syria-is-a-searing-moment-in-americas-withdrawal-from-the-middle-east/2019/10/16/82c0ff3c-ef5a-11e9-bb7e-d2026ee0c199_story.html // DOA: 4/9/20)JDE
It sent a message to ...showed was still functioning.
Critically, perception of the US security guarantee is the linchpin for stopping Japan prolif
Chanlett-Avery et al 19 states that (Emma Chanlett-Avery Specialist in Asian Affairs, Caitlin Campbell Analyst in Asian Affairs, Joshua A. Williams Research Associate all work for the CRS, CRS, June 13 2019, “The US-Japan Alliance”, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33740.pdf // DOA: 4/9/20)JDE
“Growing concerns in ... a destabilizing nuclear arms race in Asia.141”
Unfortunately, Japan could proliferate quickly.
Fitzpatrick 19 observes that (Mark Fitzpatrick 19, 10-3-2019, MARK FITZPATRICK is an Associate Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the author of Asia’s Latent Nuclear Powers: Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. "How Japan Could Go Nuclear," Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2019-10-03/how-japan-could-go-nuclear // DOA: 4/9/2020 BP
As the only country ... five years and cost over $2 billion.
This prolif increases mistrust and likelihood of nuclear war.
Wadsworth 19 explains that (KELLY C. WADSWORTH is a PhD student in International Security Studies at the University of Pittsburgh. Her research focus is on nonproliferation and regional stability in East Asia, highlighting the evolving situation in North Korea. Ms. Wadsworth earned an MBA and an MA in International Studies (Korea Studies) at the University of Washington. She can be reached at [email protected]. “Should Japan Adopt Conventional Missile Strike Capabilities?” Asia Policy, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 61-87, accessed through MUSE provided by Cornell University Libraries, https://muse.jhu.edu/article/724100) dwc 19
Tokyo's armament would … draw in the United States
That’s because, as Wadsworth continues, (KELLY C. WADSWORTH is a PhD student in International Security Studies at the University of Pittsburgh. Her research focus is on nonproliferation and regional stability in East Asia, highlighting the evolving situation in North Korea. Ms. Wadsworth earned an MBA and an MA in International Studies (Korea Studies) at the University of Washington. She can be reached at [email protected]. “Should Japan Adopt Conventional Missile Strike Capabilities?” Asia Policy, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 61-87, accessed through MUSE provided by Cornell University Libraries, https://muse.jhu.edu/article/724100) dwc 19
The reaction of Japan's ... legislation like CSD.
The impact is a nuclear war.
Farley 19 calculates that (Robert Farley, July 4, 2019, "Imagining a Nuclear War With North Korea: The 2020 Commission, Misperception, and Trump," The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2019/07/imagining-a-nuclear-war-with-north-korea-the-2020-commission-misperception-and-trump/ DOA 4/13/20) LX
U.S. President Donald ... and North America.
Thus, we negate. | 904,297 |
365,274 | 379,220 | April - TOC Quarters | We affirm
Contention 1 is Drones
Whitlock 2014 (Craig Whitlock, 3-time finalist for the Pulitzer Prize and reporter for the Washington Post. August 26, 2014. The Washington Post. “U.S. relies on Persian Gulf bases for airstrikes in Iraq”, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-relies-on-persian-gulf-bases-for-airstrikes-in-iraq/2014/08/25/517dcde0-2c7a-11e4-9b98-848790384093_story.html . DOA: April 14, 2020.) ALP
The U.S. military is …… several large bases there.
Additionally,
Turse 2011 (Nick Turse, investigative journalist who has written for the New York Times and is a contributor at the Intercept. October 17, 2011. The Nation. “America’s Secret Empire of Drone Bases”, https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/americas-secret-empire-drone-bases/. DOA: April 14, 2020.) ALP
The Air Force is now negotiating …… where drones take off and land.
The US has given up on attempts to be precise with drone strikes
Boyle 2013 (Michael Boyle, Associate Professor of Political Science at La Salle University and Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, focusing mainly on political violence and counterterror. January 2013. Oxford University Press. “The costs and consequences of drone warfare”, https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/23479331.pdf?refreqid=excelsior3A6d510f93490bc22eb53bb1ae7888ca83 . DOA: April 14, 2020.) ALP
The result of the …… in an active theatre of war.
Two impacts
The first is civilian deaths
Ryan 18 quantifies
Ryan 18 (Missy Ryan, for the Washington Post, 18 January 2018, “Civilian deaths tripled in U.S.-led campaign against ISIS in 2017, watchdog alleges” https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/civilian-deaths-tripled-in-us-led-campaign-during-2017-watchdog-alleges/2018/01/18/ccfae298-fc6d-11e7-a46b-a3614530bd87_story.html?stream=worldandutm_campaign=newsletter_axiosworldandutm_medium=emailandutm_source=newsletter DOA 4/16/20) MDS
U.S. and allied strikes against …… attacks in both countries and beyond.
In fact, structural factors mean the deaths are much higher than figures say
Boyle 2013 (Michael Boyle, Associate Professor of Political Science at La Salle University and Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, focusing mainly on political violence and counterterror. January 2013. Oxford University Press. “The costs and consequences of drone warfare”, https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/23479331.pdf?refreqid=excelsior3A6d510f93490bc22eb53bb1ae7888ca83 . DOA: April 14, 2020.) ALP
The aggregate numbers tell only …… deaths are much higher.33
Second is state collapse
Drone attacks systematically undermine governments and increase probability of state failure.
Boyle 2013 (Michael Boyle, Associate Professor of Political Science at La Salle University and Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, focusing mainly on political violence and counterterror. January 2013. Oxford University Press. “The costs and consequences of drone warfare”, https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/23479331.pdf?refreqid=excelsior3A6d510f93490bc22eb53bb1ae7888ca83 . DOA: April 14, 2020.) ALP
The escalation of drone strikes in …… has launched coups before, remains a popular force.77
State failure spills over and creates massive conflict
Fearon 15 (James D Fearon, researcher and writer. “Instability In The Middle East” Hoover Institution, 7 May 2015, DOA 3/4/20 https://www.hoover.org/research/instability-middle-east) MP
State collapse and failure …… programs, or to purchase weapons.
Contention 2 is Yemen.
Hazbun 19 explains... (Waleed Hazbun, Richard L. Chambers Professor of Middle Eastern Studies in the Department of Political Science at the University of Alabama. March 2019. “In America’s Wake: Turbulence and Insecurity in the Middle East” POMEPS Studies. https://pomeps.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/POMEPS_Studies_34_Web.pdf. DOA: March 14 2020) SRW
Teir efforts collapsed in the …… likelihood of conflict and escalation.
After America withdraws troops from the gulf, Saudi Arabia no longer has the security umbrella that enables adventurism into Yemen. This will cause them to turn to a negotiated solution to the conflict, as current conditions are ripe for an agreement: Hanly of March 2020 explains…
(Ken Hanly, journalist and retired professor of philosophy. March 18, 2020. Digital Journal. “Op-Ed: Houthis take northern Yemen province and now move south”, http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/world/op-ed-houthis-take-northern-yemen-province-and-now-move-south/article/568949 . DOA: March 20, 2020.) ALP
The Saudis would like …… could end up with no power at all.
A power sharing agreement is critical.
Wezeman 2018 (Pieter D. Wezeman is a Senior Researcher with the SIPRI Arms Transfers and Military Expenditure Programme, “Saudi Arabia, armaments and conflict in the Middle East”, The Hill, December 14th 2018, https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2018/saudi-arabia-armaments-and-conflict-middle-east. DOA: January 29th 2019) TG
Since the spring of 2015, ……, fuel and medical supplies.
Indeed, Landry 2019 concludes...
(Carole LANDRY, “Warring Yemen parties agree compromise on Hodeida pullback”, Yahoo News, February 7th 2019, https://news.yahoo.com/warring-yemen-parties-agree-compromise-hodeida-pullback-184928057.html. DOA: February 8th 2019) TG
The Huthis are refusing ……on the brink of famine.
Contention 3 is a US-Iran war.
Aggressive foreign policy has put America and Iran on a collision course. Coronavirus is making war in the middle east even more likely:
Kaye 2020 (March 26, 2020 Dalia Dassa Kaye, Director, Center for Middle East Public Policy; Senior Political Scientist at RAND, “Covid-19 Impats on strategic dynamics in the middle east,” RAND https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/03/covid-19-impacts-on-strategic-dynamics-in-the-middle.html DOA: 4/1/20) HS
U.S.-Iran escalation. Both …… distraction of a global pandemic shifts priorities.
Withdrawing troops from Iran’s backyard reduces the probability of US-Iran war for two reasons.
1. First is provoking Iran.
Continued military presence risks miscalculation and provocation of Iran
Aboudouh 20(Ahmed Aboudouh, consultant editor at The Independent, April 11th 2020, The Independent, “The US is eager to leave Iraq soon and the coronavirus pandemic will accelerate it,” https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/us-troops-military-conflict-iraq-iran-trump-a9460496.html DOA 4/18/20) CJV
US fears of an imminent, large-scale …….US out of Iraq might now seem more feasible.
Absent a US threat of invasion, Iran will cease its escalatory actions
Travino 13 (Rusty Travino, University of New Mexico, Fall 2013, “Is Iran an Off an an Offensives Realist or a Def es Realist or a Defensive Realist? A Theor e Realist? A Theoretical Reflection on Iranian Motives for Creating Instability” https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google.com/andhttpsredir=1andarticle=1328andcontext=jss DOA 4/19/20) MDS
After examining Iran's actions ……..military action is discouraged.
2. Second is a shift to diplomacy.
America’s approach to Iran has been overwhelmingly informed by aggression.
Jones 2011 confirms (Toby Jones, assistant professor of history at Rutgers University. December 22, 2011. The Atlantic. “Don't Stop at Iraq: Why the U.S. Should Withdraw From the Entire Persian Gulf”, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/12/dont-stop-at-iraq-why-the-us-should-withdraw-from-the-entire-persian-gulf/250389/ . DOA: March 3, 2020.) ALP
Led by Saudi Arabia, the …… one that could easily spin out of control.
Withdrawing troops sends a signal that the US will shift to diplomacy, breaking the cycle of escalation
Harb 2019 (Imad K Harb, Imad K Harb is Director of Research and Analysis at Arab Center Washington DC. 16 Oct 2019. “Saudi Arabia and Iran may finally be ready for rapprochement,” Aljazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/saudi-arabia-iran-finally-ready-rapprochement-191015103242982.html. DOA: 3/22/20)AO
One thing is sure, however…… look minor in comparison.
A US-Iran war would be beyond devastating. It would cause, according to Chussodovsky 2018...
(Prof Michel Chossudovsky, 5-26-2018, "When War Games Go Live? "Simulating World War III"," Global Research, https://www.globalresearch.ca/when-war-games-go-live-preparing-to-attack-iran-simulating-world-war-iii/28542
The complacency of Western …… with extensive radioactive fallout. | 904,267 |
365,275 | 379,236 | February - Millard Neg | Contention one is cushioning the blow.
Subpoint A is automatic stabilizers
During recessions, welfare programs stabilize the economy by automatically cushioning the downward spiral into poverty without congress having to pass extra legislation.
Moffitt 14 (Robert A. Moffitt, Krieger-Eisenhower professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University, 10-20-2014, "The Social Safety Net in the Great Recession," Milken Institute Review, https://www.milkenreview.org/articles/the-social-safety-new-in-the-great-recession-success-failure-or-a-little-of-each DOA 2/20/20) MDS
When unemployment rises, … … not entitlement programs.
Means Tested Welfare helped stabilize the great recession, as Boushey of the Center for American Progress quantifies,
Boushey and Eizenga 10 (Heather Boushey and Jordan Eizenga, for the Center for American Progress, November 2010, “The Economic Case for Unemployment Insurance and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program” https://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2010/11/pdf/ui_snap.pdf DOA 2/20/10) MDS
Since the recession …… on personal income.14
They continue that
Boushey and Eizenga 10 (Heather Boushey and Jordan Eizenga, for the Center for American Progress, November 2010, “The Economic Case for Unemployment Insurance and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program” https://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2010/11/pdf/ui_snap.pdf DOA 2/20/10) MDS
Businesses can …… living in all of Los Angeles County.
Timely recoveries from recessions are critical, as Oxfam 09 quantifies that after the great recession hit, in 2009
Oxfam 09 (Oxfam, a global organization working to end the injustice of poverty, 9-24-2009, "100 people pushed into poverty every minute by economic crisis," No Publication, https://www.oxfamamerica.org/press/100-people-pushed-into-poverty-every-minute-by-economic-crisis/ DOA 2/20/20) MDS
100 people every minute …… in the global downturn.
Contention two is saving the children.
Subpoint A is CHIP
The Children’s Health Insurance Program, or CHIP, is a means tested welfare program that provides health insurance to children, and has been wildly effective.
Shapiro 17 explains
Shapiro 17 (Lisa Shapiro, working in the public, non-profit and private sectors on federal health policy issues with a primary focus on children, the uninsured and underserved populations, 8-30-2017, "Key Facts about the CHIP Program," No Publication, https://firstfocus.org/resources/fact-sheet/key-facts-about-the-chip-program DOA 2/20/19) MDS
The Children’s Health Insurance ……economic crisis that began in 2008.
Schneider 17 continues
Schneider 17 (Andy Schneider, of Georgetown, 2-6-2017, "The Children’s Health Insurance Program," Center For Children and Families, https://ccf.georgetown.edu/2017/02/06/about-chip/ DOA 2/20/19) MDS
CHIP builds on Medicaid’s …… of $524 billion in Medicaid.
Subpoint B is SNAP
The CBPP explains that SNAP, formerly known as food stamps, is
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 2019 (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a nonpartisan research and policy institute. Update 7 November 2019. “Chart Book: SNAP Helps Struggling Families Put Food on the Table,” Center on Budget ……. and Lower Health Care Costs.”
SNAP is critical to food security
Lau 2013(Peiley Lau, Ph.D. student in Agricultural and Resource Economics at UC Berkeley and a recipient of the UC Berkeley Chancellor's Fellowship .November 27, 2013. “SNAP: An Investment in Our Children,” Oakland Institute. https://www.oaklandinstitute.org/blog/snap-investment-our-children. DOA: 2/6/20)AO
This issue is relevant at ……. for children across America.
A Universal Basic Income fails to adequately replace these programs for four reasons:
First,
The UBI distributes money upwards, giving benefits to those that don’t need them
Hoynes and Rothstein 18 (Hilary Hoynes, professor of Public Policy and Economics at UC Berkley. Jesse Rothstein, professor of Public Policy and Economics at UC Berkley, former Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Labor. August 15, 2018. “Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries,” https://gspp.berkeley.edu/assets/uploads/research/pdf/Hoynes-Rothstein-UBI-081518.pdf. DOA: 1/8/20) NK
In Section IV, we discuss the ……, and families with children).
As a result, Goulden 18 quantifies that in a world with a UBI
Goulden 2018 (Chris Goulden, Deputy Director of Evidence and Impact at JRF, used to research at the NHS. April 25, 2018. Joseph Rowntree Foundation. “Universal Basic Income - not the answer to poverty”, https://www.jrf.org.uk/blog/universal-basic-income-not-answer-poverty . DOA: February 19, 2020.) ALP
Compass, in research …… relative income poverty!
Second is inflation,
This happens in two ways.
a. is higher demand. Archetto 18 explains,
Archetto 18 (Greg Archetto, foreign affairs officer at the Bureau of Political Military Affairs, US Department of State and a former security assistance officer at the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, Office of the Secretary of Defense. He was also foreign policy advisor to Sen. Rand Paul , 7-16-2018, "Implementation of a 'universal basic income' program would be a disaster," TheHill, https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/397192-implementation-of-a-universal-basic-income-program-would-be-a-disaster DOA 2/19/20) MDS
The left can somtimes …… of every customer that walks into his store.
b. is political manipulation
Rasoolinejad 19(Mohammad Rasoolinejad, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Kellogg School of Management, 12-Oct-2019, “Universal Basic Income: The Last Bullet in the Darkness,” Cornell University, https://arxiv.org/pdf/1910.05658.pdf, DOA: 2/18/20)JDE
“UBI has failed in many …… target inflation and wealth disparity.”
Third is a tradeoff
Without welfare, a UBI must cover a plethora of costs. Lau 13 writes that Americans will
Lau 2013 (Peiley Lau, Ph.D. student in Agricultural and Resource Economics at UC Berkeley and a recipient of the UC Berkeley Chancellor's Fellowship .November 27, 2013. “SNAP: An Investment in Our Children,” Oakland Institute. https://www.oaklandinstitute.org/blog/snap-investment-our-children. DOA: 2/6/20)AO
As families across the …… a food insecure household.
Fourth is excluding non-citizens
Le in 2020 explains
Le and Nowrasteh 20 (Tu Le, has an MS in economics from Texas AandM University. Alex Nowrasteh, is the director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute’s Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity. January 14, 2020. “Immigrant and Native Consumption of Means?Tested Welfare and Entitlement Benefits in 2016: Evidence from the Survey of Income and Program Participation,” Cato Institute, https://www.cato.org/publications/immigration-research-policy-brief/immigrant-native-consumption-means-tested-welfare. DOA: 1/28/20) NK
Overall, immigrants consume …… access to all of these programs.13
However, a UBI would not go to noncitizens
Miller 19 (John W. Miller, retired United States Navy Vice Admiral who last served as Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/Commander, U.S. Fifth Fleet. “Universal basic income is having a moment. Can advocates convince a skeptical public?,” 3/2/2019, American Magazine, https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2019/10/02/universal-basic-income-having-moment-can-advocates-convince-skeptical. DOA: 1/28/2020) DSE
U.B.I. could also …… we make them citizens.”
Millions will lose vital government assistance
Camarota and Ziegler 18 find (Steven Camarota and Karen Ziegler, Director of Research and Demographer for the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), 20 Nov 2018, “63 of Non-Citizen Households Access Welfare Programs”, https://cis.org/Report/63-NonCitizen-Households-Access-Welfare-Programs DOA 1/28/19)KJR
In 2014, 63 percent of households ……full welfare eligibility at birth.
Nicholson 2017 quantifies (Mike Nicholson, researcher at the Center for Migration Studies, previously an analyst for the Center for American Progress, has a BA from Penn. April 20, 2017. Center for American Progress. “The Facts on Immigration Today: 2017 Edition”, https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/reports/2017/04/20/430736/facts-immigration-today-2017-edition/ . DOA: January 29, 2020.) ALP
Foreign-born population Approximately …… immigrated to the country.13
Thus, we negate. | 904,285 |
365,276 | 379,240 | Septober - UKPresentation Neg Fast | C1 - NATO
Chance - Separate EU and US
Alek Chance, 10-2016, “American Perspective on the Belt and Road Initiative,” Institute for China-American Studies, https://chinaus-icas.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/American-Perspectives-on-the-Belt-and-Road-Initiative.pdf // RM
American observers ….. influence its course in the future.
Wright - Beijing will use this new legitimacy as a tool to disrupt the U.S and E.U relationship as Wright and Benner from the Brookings institute explain in 2018
Wright and Benner 2018 (Thomas Wright and Throsten Benner, Director - Center on the United States and Europe and Writer at Brookings respectiveley, April 5 2018, “China’s relations with U.S. allies and partners in Europe” https://www.brookings.edu/testimonies/chinas-relations-with-u-s-allies-and-partners-in-europe/ DOA:July 21 2019) SP
Overall, unlike the ….. illiberal-authoritarian political movements.
Walt - Closer China-EU trade ties will make America less inclined to invest in European defense
Professor Stephen Walt 2016 (Stephen Walt, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard University, “EU Global Strategy: Expert Opinion” https://www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/files/EUISSFiles/EUGS_Opinion_1_Walt_0.pdf
January 2016, DoA 7/22/19) JJ
A growing proportion of …..helping China grow stronger.
Economist - NATO would collapse if the US left
The Economist 2019 (The Economist, "What would happen if America left Europe to fend for itself?," Economist, https://www.economist.com/special-report/2019/03/14/what-would-happen-if-america-left-europe-to-fend-for-itself March 14, 2019, DoA 7/22/19) JJ
Why, a strategist from Mars might ….. politically, financially and militarily.”
Says - China’s BRI expansion into Europe would undermine NATO.
Says 2019 (Gerry Says, 6-19-2019, "Protecting Europe from China will strengthen the future of NATO," euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/5g/opinion/protecting-europe-from-china-will-strengthen-the-future-of-nato/ DoA 7/22/19) JJ
Today the competition with ……weapons in the early years of NATO.
Kendall-Taylor - Chinese econ influence through the BRI destroys Article 5
Kendall-Taylor 19 (Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Senior Fellow and Director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). She works on national security challenges facing the United States and Europe, focusing on Russia, populism and threats to democracy, and the state of the Transatlantic alliance,5-9-2019, "China’s Expanding Influence in Europe and Eurasia," No Publication, https://www.cnas.org/publications/congressional-testimony/chinas-expanding-influence-in-europe-and-eurasia DOA 8/30/19) MDS
In the longer term, a sustained ….. the principle of collective defense.
Kendall-Taylor - Chinese BRI infra hinders NATO mobility
Kendall-Taylor 19 (Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Senior Fellow and Director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). She works on national security challenges facing the United States and Europe, focusing on Russia, populism and threats to democracy, and the state of the Transatlantic alliance,5-9-2019, "China’s Expanding Influence in Europe and Eurasia," No Publication, https://www.cnas.org/publications/congressional-testimony/chinas-expanding-influence-in-europe-and-eurasia DOA 8/30/19) MDS
NATO. China does not pose …..would hinder NATO mobility.
Kendall-Taylor - Chinese econ influence through the BRI destroys Article 5
Kendall-Taylor 19 (Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Senior Fellow and Director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). She works on national security challenges facing the United States and Europe, focusing on Russia, populism and threats to democracy, and the state of the Transatlantic alliance,5-9-2019, "China’s Expanding Influence in Europe and Eurasia," No Publication, https://www.cnas.org/publications/congressional-testimony/chinas-expanding-influence-in-europe-and-eurasia DOA 8/30/19) MDS
In the longer term, a sustained ….. principle of collective defense.
Kyle - Russia invades the Baltics using their ethnic populations as an excuse for its imperialism
Kyle 18 (Joe Kyle, a graduate student in the Security Policy Studies program in the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University, December 2018, “Contextualizing Russia and the Baltic States” https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0030438718300991?token=25B5028051EC587C2093C863DE805D3E29C8F95A50B942386782728C6946E17919F7A5DD4625900CFB3936322C1A6697 DOA 7/24/19) MDS
A key component of the ….. roles within the Alliance.35
Hardt - Withdrawing from NATO lets Russia invade the Baltics
Hardt 18 (Heidi Hardt, writer for the Huffington Post, 7-16-2018, "Leaving Nato Would Make The U.S. And The World Less Safe," HuffPost, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/opinion-hardt-trump-nato_n_5b4c9dfde4b022fdcc5b89d6 DOA 7/10/19) MDS
Simply put, withdrawing from …..non-state actors, including terrorist organizations.
Peck - The baltic states would force their civilians to fight in a ‘total defense’ strategy if Russia invades.
Peck 17 (Michael Peck, writer for the National Interest, 10-21-2017, "If Russia Ever Invades the Baltics, This Is the Plan to Make It as Painful as Possible," National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/if-russia-ever-invades-the-baltics-the-plan-make-it-painful-22807 DoA 7/25/19) JJ
The Baltic states have ….. activities against aggression and occupation.”
Wither - Russia DOES NOT PLAY with these Baltic resistance movements in the event of a Russian invasion
Professor Wither 2019 (James K. Wither, Professor of National Security Studies and Director Fellowship programs at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, “’Modern Guerillas’ and the Defense of the Baltic States” https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/modern-guerrillas-and-defense-baltic-states#_edn68 , 2019, DoA 7/25/19) JJ
The Estonian city of Narva, ….. forces during a war in the Baltics.
C2 – Trade
Ewing - Southern European economies are helping to offset Germany’s downturn- recession brink
Ewing 19 (Jack Ewing, New York Times, 8-16-2019, "Germany Has Powered Europe’s Economy. What Happens When Its Engine Stalls?," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/16/business/eu-economy-germany-recession.html?auth=login-emailandlogin=email DOA 8/27/19) MDS
FRANKFURT — When a debt ….. thrive when Germany is sickly.
Ewing - More hits to Germany/Europe including escalating the trade war sends into recession
Ewing 19 (Jack Ewing, New York Times, 8-16-2019, "Germany Has Powered Europe’s Economy. What Happens When Its Engine Stalls?," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/16/business/eu-economy-germany-recession.html?auth=login-emailandlogin=email DOA 8/27/19) MDS
“If the largest member ….. and a contraction in global trade.
Atlantic - Trump impatient w/Europe
“Why Won’t the US Admit It Needs Europe Against China?” The Atlantic. 2019//SK
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/united-states-needs-europe-against-china/590887/
One senior administration ….. waste a lot of energy and not be successful.”
Kayla - Trump pushed off a decision to do an auto tariff
Tausche, Kayla. “Trump administration to delay auto tariffs by up to six months: Sources.” CNBC. 5/15/19 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/15/trump-administration-to-delay-auto-tariffs-amid-trade-war.html//SSK
The Trump administration plans ….. Ford and General Motors jumped.
Trigkas - Trade war link card
Trigkas, Vasilis. “Nato and China summits give Europe a chance to assert its interests and stabilise the global order.” South China Morning Post. July 2018//SK
https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2153948/nato-and-china-summits-give-europe-chance
If negotiations accelerate ….. rapprochement between Beijing and Washington.
Bank of Finland - While the US-China trade war only targeted relatively unimportant commodities such as soybeans, Trump’s auto tariffs strike at an industry crucial to the stability of the European economy: The car industry.
The Bank of Finland 2016 (Bank of Finland Bulletin, 4-13-2016, "Significance of the car industry in EU countries – Bank of Finland Bulletin," https://www.bofbulletin.fi/en/2016/1/significance-of-the-car-industry-in-eu-countries/
In the EU countries, the …..countries and the euro area.
Heeb - Trump auto tariffs will create a recession
Heeb, Gina. “Trump's proposed car tariffs could trigger a global growth recession, BAML says.” Markets Insider. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-tariffs-cars-could-trigger-global-growth-recession-baml-2019-2-1027973273 2/21/19//SSK
While that could benefit ….. trade tensions that emerged last year.
IMF - Recessions r mean
IMF (The International Monetary Fund, “Jobs and Growth: Analytical and Operational Considerations For the Fund,” 2013, https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/031413.pdf, DoA 7/21/19) JJ
Across OECD countries, ….. World Economic Situation and Prospects, 2013). | 904,289 |
365,277 | 379,205 | Kentucky Blake PW Pro | Contention 1: Infrastructure
Europe is going into a recession right now. Goodman 2019
Goodman 2019 (Peter S. Goodman, the European economics correspondent for The New York Times, based in London. 2 September 2019. “For Europe, the Threat of a No-Deal Brexit Comes at a Bad Time,” The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/02/business/brexit-europe-recession.html. DOA 9/6/19.) WD
Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is teetering toward… that would send it into recession.
EU joining increases infrastructure in Europe. USCC 2018
USCC 18 (US China Economic and Security Review Commission, Government organization, 2 November 2018, “CHINA AND THE WORLD SECTION 1: BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE” https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Annual_Report/Chapters/Chapter20320Section201-20Belt20and20Road20Initative_0.pdf DOA 7/9/18) MDS
Infrastructure has been a major component of BRI… after five years some trends can be discerned.
Trade increases. Yesmin 2019
(Sultana Yesmin, Visiting Research Fellow at the Yunnan Academy of Social Sciences, PhD Candidate at the School of Politics and International Studies, 3 July 2019, “BRI leads to common prosperity and development”, ModernDiplomacy, https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2019/07/03/bri-leads-to-common-prosperity-and-development/ DOA 7/11/19)KJR
With the vision of common growth… percent of global growth in 2019.
Foreign investment increases. Chen and Lin 18
Maggie Xiaoyang Chen Chuanhao Lin, researchers for the World Bank, October 2018, “Foreign Investment across the Belt and Road”, World Bank http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/394671539175518256/pdf/WPS8607.pdf DOA 7/9/19) MDS
As shown in Figure 18… with China’s investment flow.
BRI solves recession. Elmer 2019
Elmer 2019 ( https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3003362/chinas-fragile-trade-economy-could-be-risk-eu-outlook-goes DOA: July 16 2019) SP
The risk of Europe as a region falling… and the Trump administration.
EU recession impact. IMF
(Olivier Blanchard, Carlo Cottarelli, and Siddharth Tiwari, 03/14/2013, JOBS AND GROWTH: ANALYTICAL AND OPERATIONAL
CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE FUND, https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/031413.pdf DOA: July 16, 2019) SCK
Following very weak growth… in the face of adverse shocks.
Contention 2: Health Silk Road
Health Silk Road Uniqueness. Nikogosian 2018
Nikogosian 2018 (Haik Nikogosian, senior fellow at the Global Health Center in Geneva. November 29, 2018. TheBMJOpinion. “Global Health Disruptors: The Belt and Road initiative,” https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2018/11/29/global-health-disruptors-the-belt-and-road-initiative/ . DOA: August 22, 2019.) SRW
New forms of cooperation in... in the recent Health Silk Road Communiqué.
Europe increasing connectivity. Nikogosian 2018
Nikogosian 2018 (Haik Nikogosian, senior fellow at the Global Health Center in Geneva. November 29, 2018. TheBMJOpinion. “Global Health Disruptors: The Belt and Road initiative,” https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2018/11/29/global-health-disruptors-the-belt-and-road-initiative/ . DOA: August 22, 2019.) ALP
Major public health matters… have also contributed.
Europe sharing technology. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
(Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, group that aims to enhance healthcare and end extreme poverty. No date. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. “NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES: STRATEGY OVERVIEW”, https://www.gatesfoundation.org/what-we-do/global-health/neglected-tropical-diseases . DOA: July 15, 2019.) ALP
We support efforts to develop… look similar in the early stages.
Increasing infrastructure. Gostin 2018
Gostin et al 2018 (Lawrence Gostin, University Professor at Georgetown University, specializes in public health law, and the author of the Model State Emergency Health Powers Act. April 3, 2018. Health Affairs. “China’s Grand Idea For The 21st Century: Will The New Silk Road Transform Global Health Assistance?”, https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20180327.739726/full/ . DOA: August 22, 2019.) ALP
Belt and Road could... measured against that standard.
Health Silk Road increases Health Care. Zhou 2019.
Bergquist et al 2019 (Jin Chen, Robert Bergquist, Xiao-Nong Zhou, Jing-Bo Xue, and Men-Baeo Qian. April 18th 2019. “Combating infectious disease epidemics through China’s Belt and Road Initiative.” PLOS. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6472722/ DOA 08/05/19) GSH
Although the BRI is primarily economic… mobilise all resources for better health in the world.
BRI secures healthcare for billions of people. Adhanom 2017
Adhanom 17 (Tedros Adhanom, WHO director general, 18 August 2017, “Towards a Health Silk Road” https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/2017/health-silk-road/en/ https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/2017/health-silk-road/en/ DOA 7/21/19) MDS
Thank you Excellency Vice Premier… has said most of them.
BRI stops future diseases. Berquist 2019
Bergquist et al 2019 (Jin Chen, Robert Bergquist, Xiao-Nong Zhou, Jing-Bo Xue, and Men-Baeo Qian. April 18th 2019. “Combating infectious disease epidemics through China’s Belt and Road Initiative.” PLOS. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6472722/ DOA 08/05/19) GSH
The world is currently witnessing… of poverty and infectious disease.
BRI saves billions. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
(Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, group that aims to enhance healthcare and end extreme poverty. No date. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. “NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES: STRATEGY OVERVIEW”, https://www.gatesfoundation.org/what-we-do/global-health/neglected-tropical-diseases . DOA: July 15, 2019.) ALP
More than 1 billion people… the Sustainable Development Goals. | 904,247 |
365,278 | 379,192 | Blake OP Aff Persian Gulf Version 1 | We affirm
Our sole contention is stopping conflict
There are three reasons why withdrawing the US presence will decrease the risk of war in the Middle East
Forming alliances
The US’s role in the Middle East as a security guarantor destroys effective alliances
Ashford 2018 finds (Emma Ashford, research fellow in Defense and Foreign Policy at the Cato Institute. Spring 2018. Strategic Studies Quarterly. “Unbalanced: Rethinking America’s Commitment to the Middle East”, https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/26333880 . DOA: March 4, 2020.) ALP
Yet perhaps the biggest ...these developing ties.
The lack of these alliances has meant Iran’s expansionism goes effectively unchecked
Gause 2017 (F. Gregory Gause, Head of the International Affairs Department at Texas AandM University, focused on the international politics of the Middle East. June 12, 2017. Cambridge University Press. “Ideologies, Alignments, and Underbalancing in the New Middle East Cold War”, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/ideologies-alignments-and-underbalancing-in-the-new-middle-east-cold-war/739C0AB7ACDAD0E8ADE7D36C3CD37AA6 . DOA: March 11, 2020.) ALP
The pattern of alliances ...and transnational policies.
Diplomacy and politics are preferable than the status quo
Jones 2011 (Toby Jones, assistant professor of history at Rutgers University. December 22, 2011. The Atlantic. “Don't Stop at Iraq: Why the U.S. Should Withdraw From the Entire Persian Gulf”, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/12/dont-stop-at-iraq-why-the-us-should-withdraw-from-the-entire-persian-gulf/250389/ . DOA: March 3, 2020.) ALP
Led by Saudi Arabia,... one that could easily spin out of control.
Restraining Saudi Arabia and the UAE
The US presence and diplomatic support for these two countries hands them a blank check to act, destroying regional cooperation
Hazbun 19 (Waleed Hazbun, Richard L. Chambers Professor of Middle Eastern Studies in the Department of Political Science at the University of Alabama. March 2019. “In America’s Wake: Turbulence and Insecurity in the Middle East” POMEPS Studies. https://pomeps.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/POMEPS_Studies_34_Web.pdf. DOA: March 14 2020) SRW
Teir efforts collapsed... conflict and escalation.
3rd is de-escalating with Iran
Iran doesn’t conflict but US presence forces them to militarize
Jones 2011 (Toby Jones, assistant professor of history at Rutgers University. December 22, 2011. The Atlantic. “Don't Stop at Iraq: Why the U.S. Should Withdraw From the Entire Persian Gulf”, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/12/dont-stop-at-iraq-why-the-us-should-withdraw-from-the-entire-persian-gulf/250389/ . DOA: March 3, 2020.) ALP
Led by Saudi Arabia, …. easily spin out of control.
The first impact is regional war
The US’s potential pullout sparked diplomacy between Iran and Saudi Arabia, but that was snuffed out by continued US aggression
Parsi 2020 (TRITA PARSI, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and Adjunct Associate Professor at Georgetown University. JANUARY 6, 2020. “The Middle East Is More Stable When the United States Stays Away,” Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/06/the-middle-east-is-more-stable-when-the-united-states-stays-away/. DOA: 3/22/20)AO
Yet when U.S. ... the guarantor of it?
Without diplomacy the region risks a devastating war
Harb 2019 (Imad K Harb, Imad K Harb is Director of Research and Analysis at Arab Center Washington DC. 16 Oct 2019. “Saudi Arabia and Iran may finally be ready for rapprochement,” Aljazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/saudi-arabia-iran-finally-ready-rapprochement-191015103242982.html. DOA: 3/22/20)AO
One thing is sure... minor in comparison.
To put that into context
Specia 18 (Megan Specia, Story Editor for International Desk of the New York Times. Published 4-13-18. “How Syria’s Death Toll is Lost in the fog of war”, New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/13/world/middleeast/syria-death-toll.html. DOA January 17 2019) JG
In seven years,...t nation’s reconciliation process.
The second is ending the Yemen war
US withdrawal signals have forced diplomacy in Yemen. Parsi 2020 finds (TRITA PARSI, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and Adjunct Associate Professor at Georgetown University. JANUARY 6, 2020. “The Middle East Is More Stable When the United States Stays Away,” Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/06/the-middle-east-is-more-stable-when-the-united-states-stays-away/. DOA: 3/22/20)AO
Instead, recognizing that... pledge of nonaggression.
The Yemen war is a catastrophe,
Bachman 2018 (Jeff Bachman, Professorial Lecturer in Human Rights; Director, Ethics, Peace, and Human Rights MA Program, American University School of International Service, 11-26-2018, "US complicity in the Saudi-led genocide in Yemen spans Obama, Trump administrations," Conversation, https://theconversation.com/us-complicity-in-the-saudi-led-genocide-in-yemen-spans-obama-trump-administrations-106896) JJ
A Saudi-led coalition ...and Trump administrations. | 904,234 |
365,279 | 379,198 | Blake OP Neg OCO Version 1 | Russia building defense against US
LeVine 18 (Steve LeVine, a Senior Fellow at The Atlantic Council, teaches energy security at Georgetown University. Aug 5 2018. “Inside Russia's invasion of the U.S. electric grid” Axios. https://www.axios.com/russia-united-states-cyber-war-electric-power-grid-cb71f036-1ccc-47a2-93b7-fe4220e36622.html. DOA: Oct 30 2019) SRW
"Since 2015, the ... of doing something back.
Russia views US cyber operations as undermining Russia
Cheravitch 19 (Joe Cheravitch, a defense analyst with the Rand Corporation. July 22 2019. “Cyber threats from the US and Russia are now focusing on civilian infrastructure” TechCrunch. https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/22/cyber-threats-from-the-u-s-and-russia-are-now-focusing-on-civilian-infrastructure/. DOA: Oct 30 2019) SRW
Nonetheless, events since ... most Western concepts.
Russia thinks that Western influence is a threat which leads to cyber escalation
Kostyuk et al 18(Nadiya Kostyuk a Fellow for the Cybersecurity Project at the Belfer Center, Scott Powell a former Army officer and 2005 graduate of the United States Military Academy, Matt Skach a PhD candidate in the Department of Computer Science and Engineering at the University of Michigan, and a combat engineer in the 1433rd Engineering Company of the Michigan Army National Guard, The Cyber Defense Review, Spring 2018, “Determinants of the Cyber Escalation Latter”, https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/26427380 // DOA: 10/18/19) JDE
“Potential adversaries such ... on this topic.”
Russia views the West as a threat they will react to US aggression which is proven empirically
Lake 18 (Eli Lake, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering national security and foreign policy. He was the senior national security correspondent for the Daily Beast and covered national security and intelligence for the Washington Times, the New York Sun and UPI, Bloomberg Opinion, February 28 2018, “Why Trump Is Reluctant to Escalate the Cyber War With Russia” https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-02-28/cyber-war-with-russia-might-not-end-well-for-the-u-s // DOA: 10/19/19)JDE
“Finally, there is ...among other things.”
Russia is likely to overreact to OCOs and misinterpret
Greenberg 19 (Andy Greenberg, a senior writer for WIRED, covering security, privacy, information freedom, and hacker culture, WIRED, June 18 2019, “How Not To Prevent a Cyberwar With Russia”, https://www.wired.com/story/russia-cyberwar-escalation-power-grid/ // DOA: 10/21/19)JDE
“One very plausible ...hard to disentangle.’”
Russia is advantaged in a cyber war
Greenberg continues (Andy Greenberg, a senior writer for WIRED, covering security, privacy, information freedom, and hacker culture, WIRED, June 18 2019, “How Not To Prevent a Cyberwar With Russia”, https://www.wired.com/story/russia-cyberwar-escalation-power-grid/ // DOA: 10/21/19)JDE
“But former White ... a match-throwing contest.’”
Russian hacking targets US infrastructure
Smith 18 (Don C. Smith, Editor for the Journal of Energy and Natural Resources Law at the University of Denver. September 24, 2018 “Enhancing cybersecurity in the energy sector: a critical priority,” Taylor and Francis Online, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02646811.2018.1516362. DOA: 10/22/19) NK
While only several years ago the thought that a cyberattack could disable an electricity system ‘was the stuff of science fiction, today in a rather startling, if not disconcerting, admission, US-based utility companies owned by private investors have said ‘they don’t have the resources on their own to protect the country’s three big electric grids – one in the east, one in the west and one in Texas – against foreign governments’. Moreover, Marina Krotofil, ...and water’ sectors.13
Power grid attack would be disruptive and deadly
Shkor and Connors 2019 (John E. Shkor, retired US Coast Guard Vice Admiral, Timothy Connors, a retired U.S. Army Colonel. 6 August 2019. “Escalation of Cyber Warfare Puts US Electric Grid in Crosshairs,” RealClear Policy, https://www.realclearpolicy.com/articles/2019/08/06/escalation_of_cyber_warfare_puts_us_electric_grid_in_crosshairs_111252.html. DOA 10/21/19.) WD
Reliable electricity is ... an event occurs.
Cyber attack would cost 1 trillion to US economy
Reuters 2015 (Reuters Editorial, 7-8-2015, "Cyber attack on U.S. power grid could cost economy $1 trillion: report," U.S., https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cyberattack-power-survey/cyber-attack-on-u-s-power-grid-could-cost-economy-1-trillion-report-idUSKCN0PI0XS20150708 DOA 10/29/19) LX
A cyber attack ... to transport and infrastructure.
recession in the US would spread throughout the world
Mauldin 2018 (John Mauldin, financial writer, publisher, and New York Times bestselling-author, President of the investment advisory firm Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC. May 24, 2018. Forbes. "The 2020s Might Be The Worst Decade In U.S. History", https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2018/05/24/the-2020s-might-be-the-worst-decade-in-u-s-history/1#49cc3da548d3. DOA: July 22, 2019.) ALP
I recently wrote ... finishes this tightening cycle.
A recession would be devastating for those on the edge of poverty
IMF 2013 (IMF, international Monetary Fund. March 14, 2013. IMF.org. “JOBS AND GROWTH: ANALYTICAL AND OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE FUND”, https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/031413.pdf?fbclid=IwAR25z8YmNU34qzj8tb7SOk5yi2xlPWZV6z-LN_jJ-kUZ4JqnCqpiOwr23LM . DOA: July 22, 2019.) ALP
At the same time ... of adverse shocks (UN, World Economic Situation and Prospects, 2013).
OCOs decrease nuclear deterrence because it lacks transparency
Lindsay 19 (Jon R. Lindsay, Assistant Professor of Digital Media and Global Affairs. June 20, 2019. “Cyber Operations and Nuclear Weapons,” Nautilus Institute, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/cyber-operations-and-nuclear-weapons/. DOA: 10/14/19) NK
The nuclear and cyber ...bargaining failure and war.
Nuclear and cyber capabilities lead to a new doomsday situation
Lindsay furthers (Jon R. Lindsay, Assistant Professor of Digital Media and Global Affairs. June 20, 2019. “Cyber Operations and Nuclear Weapons,” Nautilus Institute, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/cyber-operations-and-nuclear-weapons/. DOA: 10/14/19) NK
The interaction between ... unlikely event slightly more likely.
A nuclear war with Russia would kill 90 million
Axe 19 (David Axe, Defense Editor of the National Interest. “A ‘Limited’ Nuclear War Quickly Could Kill 90 Million People,” 10/3/2019, National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/E28098limitedE28099-nuclear-war-quickly-could-kill-90-million-people-85686. DOA: 10/18/2019) DE
The Science and Global Security... of the conflict.” | 904,240 |
365,280 | 379,363 | 0-General Info | Eesha Nayak, 1st Speaker
[email protected]
Pranavi Garlapati, 2nd Speaker
[email protected]
Disclosure Info:
We'll disclose our cases after we've broken them at a tournament on this wiki, if you need an email chain or disclosure on pf.circuitdebater.org just ask and we can make that work.
We read our cases paraphrased, but do not put those versions on the wiki. Instead, we will have, for each contention, every card we read, along with its individual tagline, full citation, url, and first/last sentence. This just helps to improve evidence ethics without risking people reading our cases word for word. | 904,423 |
365,281 | 379,336 | 1 - BROKEN INTERPS | Interp: Debaters must, on the page with their name and the school they attend, disclose all taglines, full citations, and the first and last three words of the pieces of evidence read in their cases on the NDCA wiki at least thirty minutes before the round if they have read that case before. | 904,396 |
365,282 | 379,346 | 2 - SEPTOCT - Populism | BRI could increase European trade by 35-35, global trade by 12, and decrease trade costs by half
Eric Lam, Bloomberg, "China's BRI could increase global trade by 12, halve trading costs: ING | Business Standard News", June 7, 2018, https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/china-s-bri-could-increase-global-trade-by-12-halve-trading-costs-ing-118060700620_1.html
“China’s Belt and Road … on international trade”
Populist parties do not have a majority right now
Maya Kandel, War on the Rocks, "Populism, the European Elections, and the Future of E.U. Foreign Policy", June 1, 2019, https://warontherocks.com/2019/06/populism-the-european-elections-and-the-future-of-e-u-foreign-policy/
“The key outcome … a global player”
A one standard deviation of trade and import shock increases populist voter share by 3.7
AJPS, American Journal of Political Science, “Trade and Economic Nationalism”, October 4, 2018, http://www.italocolantone.com/component/simpledownload/?task=downloadandfileid=Y29sYW50b25lX3N0YW5pZ19qdWx5XzIwMTcucGRm
“Table 2 reports … 3.7 percentage points”
International trade increases populist parties, which take hardliner stances against refugees and immigration
Helen Milner, Princeton University, "Globalization and its Political Consequences", September 20, 2018, https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/hvmilner/files/milner_globalization_political_consequences.pdf
“Since the 1990’s … the populist character”
Millions of refugees try to enter the EU, would be forced to live in atrocious conditions without safe haven in EU
Joanna Kakissis, NPR, "'Europe Does Not See Us As Human': Stranded Refugees Struggle In Greece : Parallels : NPR", March 9, 2019, https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2018/03/09/589973165/europe-does-not-see-us-as-human-stranded-refugees-struggle-in-greece
“Those who are … thinking that day” | 904,406 |
365,283 | 379,344 | 2 - SEPTOCT - SCS | China can use Eurasian Trade Networks with the BRI to free itself from economic dependency with the West, can take decisive military action in SCS
Viking Bohman, The National Interest, "Why America Must Participate in China's Belt and Road Initiative | The National Interest", June 18, 2017, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-america-must-participate-chinas-belt-road-initiative-21206
"China is staging a ... likelihood of it doing so."
Europe wants to maintain a balanced relationship with China but is still an obstacle for their expansion in the SCS
Wendy Wu, South China Morning Post, "European militaries ‘will do more to counter assertive China’ in Indo-Pacific | South China Morning Post", March 19, 2019, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3002319/european-militaries-will-do-more-counter-assertive-china-indo
"European countries will ... with China in April."
EU needs to choose a side in the SCS, increasing pressure to choose either the US or China
Ciaran McGrath, Express News, "South China Sea: UK warned it will have to ‘pick a side’ as US and China tensions surge | World | News | Express.co.uk", September 16, 2019, https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1178822/south-china-sea-united-states-uk-world-war-3-military-islands-latest-news
"The South China Sea ... increasing pressure to choose sides.”
If Europe sides with China, China won't fear EU backlash and can expand into the SCS, empirics prove power over EU countries
Rachel Rizzo, Politico, "The U.S. or China? Europe Needs to Pick a Side - POLITICO Magazine", August 12, 2019, https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/08/12/us-china-europe-relations-227614
"Europe’s reluctance to ... actions like these will only continue"
US conventional power is overwhelming; countries turn to nuclear weapons
Sydney Freedberg, Breaking Defense, "No Longer Unthinkable: Should US Ready For ‘Limited’ Nuclear War? « Breaking Defense - Defense industry news, analysis and commentary", May 30, 2013, https://breakingdefense.com/2013/05/no-longer-unthinkable-should-us-ready-for-limited-nuclear-war/
"Outside the US, ... both sides at once." | 904,404 |
365,284 | 379,337 | 4 - JAN - Crisis | If sanctions do not end Venezuela will become a failed state
Michael E. O’Hanlon and Juan Carlos Pinzón Tuesday, September 10, 2019, Brookings, “Get ready for the Venezuela refugee crisis,” https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/09/10/get-ready-for-the-venezuela-refugee-crisis/ kegs
With its economy ... deteriorate even further.
Sanctions won't spark regime change
David Cohen, 4-29-2019, "Sanctions Can’t Spark Regime Change," Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2019-04-29/sanctions-cant-spark-regime-change
There is little ... stepping aside willingly.
They have failed every objective and only pushed the country to the brink
Francisco Rodríguez, July 10, 2019, NYT, “Trump Doesn’t Have Time for Starving Venezuelans,” Mr. Rodríguez is a former head of Venezuela’s Congressional Budget Office. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/10/opinion/venezuela-sanctions.html kegs tk
The sanctions were ... over a century.
Venezuelans are paying the price
Oliver Stuenkel, 8-22-2019, "Four Signs Trump’s Venezuela Strategy Is Backfiring,"Americas Quarterly, https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/four-signs-trumps-venezuela-strategy-backfiring
Since January, the ... to aggravate further.
Military is still loyal to Maduro
Michael Shifter, 8-8-2019, "It Worked in Panama.’ This Is Not True," New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/08/opinion/contributors/venezuela-embargo-trump.html
President Trump issued ... chance of success.
7m Venezuelans need humanitarian aid
Economist Staff, December 18th, 2019, "More dollars and fewer protests in Venezuela," Economist, https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/12/18/more-dollars-and-fewer-protests-in-venezuela
The humboldt, a pencil ... its way out.
Washington is blocking this aid by restricting oil markets
Faux, Jeff (Founder of the Economic Policy Institute). “Why Are Leading Democrats Supporting Trump on Venezuela?” The Nation, 23 May 2019, https://www.thenation.com/article/venezuela-democrats-trump-sanctions/.
The other charge ... assault on Venezuela?
300k people at risk of death because of lack of access
Deutsche Welle, 2019, "The human cost of the US sanctions on Venezuela," DW, https://www.dw.com/en/the-human-cost-of-the-us-sanctions-on-venezuela/a-50647399
Carolina Subero lives ... doing right now.
Extreme hyperinflation is causing the prices of goods to skyrocket
Steve Hanke, 11/13/2019, "Venezuela’s Hyperinflation Drags On For A Near Record—36 Months," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevehanke/2019/11/13/venezuelas-hyperinflation-drags-on-for-a-near-record36-months/#2ba468b16b7b
Venezuela is the ... of hyperinflation severity.
Cash is becoming worthless and unemployment is rising
Kimberly Amadeo, 7-5-2019, "Could You Survive Hyperinflation?," Balance, https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-hyperinflation-definition-causes-and-examples-3306097
People lose their ... worsening the hyperinflation.
US sanctions are directly killing people
Mark Weisbrot, 2-28-2019, "Trump’s Other 'National Emergency': Sanctions That Kill Venezuelans," No Publication, http://cepr.net/publications/op-eds-columns/trump-s-other-national-emergency-in-the-americas-with-sanctions-that-kill
While Americans have ... sanctions are doing.
40k deaths last year due to sanctions alone
Andrew Buncombe, 4-1-2019, "US sanctions on Venezuela 'responsible for tens of thousands of deaths'," Independent, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/venezuela-sanctions-us-excess-death-toll-economy-oil-trump-maduro-juan-guaido-jeffrey-sachs-a8888516.html
As many as ... under international law.
Venezuela has lost nearly 10 of its population after fleeing the country
Valentina Sanchez, 8/2/2019, “Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent. ‘Shock therapy’ may be only chance to undo the economic damage,” CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/02/venezuela-inflation-at-10-million-percent-its-time-for-shock-therapy.html
The lack of ... years to accomplish.
Patrick J. Kiger, 5-9-2019, "How Venezuela Fell From the Richest Country in South America into Crisis," HISTORY, https://www.history.com/news/venezuela-chavez-maduro-crisis
It wasn’t that ... the economic collapse.
95 of revenue gone from oil sanctions
Collin Eaton, 8-14-2019, "Explainer: U.S. sanctions and Venezuela's trade and oil industry partners," U.S., https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-crude-sanctions-ex/explainer-u-s-sanctions-and-venezuelas-trade-and-oil-industry-partners-idUSKCN1V420P
The United States ... sanctions were imposed.
80 of food aid now based on loyalty to Maduro bc sanctions block aid
Joshua Kurlantzick, 9-3-2019, "Plan B in Venezuela," Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/venezuela/2019-09-03/plan-b-venezuela
At the same ... thereby shielding civilians | 904,397 |
365,285 | 379,359 | GEI | Cornell of the Atlantic Council in 2019;
China expands GEI
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/energy-governance-and-china-s-bid-for-global-grid-integration/
That strategic plan... the modern global economy.
Clini;
GEI has power to spread clean energy through multiple methods.
https://energypost.eu/china-plans-uhv-transmission-lines-that-span-continents/
The aim of ... to boost end-use efficiency.
Cierten from the European Union Institute in 2017;
EU funds
https://bruegel.org/2017/05/china-cannot-finance-the-belt-and-road-alone/
It seems that China ... under the Belt and Road.
Bing of China in 19;
Legitimization
http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2019-04/24/content_74715485.htm
In short, as more EU countries ... sides will continue to emerge, so watch this space.
Wang;
China is planning to invest into GEI
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2016/03/china-proposes-50-trillion-global-uhv.html
By 2050, the total ... new materials and electric vehicle.
National Renewable Energy Lab;
https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/can-the-world-run-on-renewable-energy/
And it’s at least ... of the country.”
UN reports in 2018;
that GEI can distribute power to one-fifth of the world’s population who still have no access to electricity.
world health organization in 2019;
lots of people depend on polluting material.
UN evidence https://unfccc.int/news/global-energy-interconnection-is-crucial-for-paris-goals
The organization calculates that energy interconnectivity could not only reduce carbon emissions, but also enable distribution of power to one-fifth of the world’s population who still have no access to electricity, relying on firewood, coal, and animal waste for cooking and heating.
W.H.O. evidence https://unfccc.int/news/global-energy-interconnection-is-crucial-for-paris-goals
The organization calculates that energy interconnectivity could not only reduce carbon emissions, but also enable distribution of power to one-fifth of the world’s population who still have no access to electricity, relying on firewood, coal, and animal waste for cooking and heating.
W.H.O. evidence further https://www.who.int/airpollution/en/
From smog hanging over cities to smoke inside the home, air pollution poses a major threat to health and climate. The combined effects of ambient (outdoor) and household air pollution cause about 7 million premature deaths every year, largely as a result of increased mortality from stroke, heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer and acute respiratory infections.
Wang in 2018;
GEI will reduce carbon emissions world wide.
World Bank in 2019;
2 degrees Celsius can save millions.
http://www.minesandcommunities.org/article.php?a=12490/////// https://qz.com/1276934/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-bri-extends-to-space-too/
A group of 27 leading climate ... industries will achieve net zero emissions.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/52/1/012079/pdf
According to forecasts, ... will achieve net zero emissions.
world banks https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/overview
According to the latest ...compared with 2°C.
preventing premature deaths.
https://interestingengineering.com/cutting-carbon-emissions-could-prevent-153-million-air-pollution-related-deaths
This could help avoid ...n deaths will be avoided.
Xinhua;
100 million jobs
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-03/28/c_137072515.htm
The studies estimated ... total of over 100 million jobs.
Business Today https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/chinese-firm-unveils-plans-to-provide-free-worldwide-wifi-with-272-satellites/story/295835.html
A Chinese internet.... to a media report Thursday.
Kilbride of ABC News;
will help poverty
Kilbride https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-30/chinese-company-to-provide-free-internet-worldwide-by-2026/10568434
LinkSure already services ... activity by $6.7 trillion
The Center for Strategic and International Studies;
BRI has connectivity
https://chinapower.csis.org/china-belt-and-road-initiative/
Chinese President Xi Jinping ... some 4.4 billion people.
He in 2019;
China is suffering
https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/15/economy/china-gdp-growth/index.html
China's economic growth ... war with the United States.
Wharton in 2019;
BRI fell in investment
https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-why-the-price-is-too-high/
BRI lending by major ... arms of government policy.”
Huang from Quartz in 2018;
BRI spends money on satellite watches
Quartz https://qz.com/1276934/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-bri-extends-to-space-too/ | 904,419 |
365,286 | 379,371 | 2- Feb AC | Sourced from https://hspf.debatecoaches.org/Oakton/Zhu-Yoon20Aff | 904,431 |
365,287 | 379,375 | 1 - Speaker Points Interp | Judges at the online TOC should give each debater 30 speaker points. | 904,432 |
365,288 | 380,137 | BRI Camp Neg Case | We negate.
Our sole contention is enabling authoritarianism.
Right now the BRI’s expansion has halted, but when you affirm you revive the BRI for 2 reasons.
First, is by providing funding.
Evans-Pritchard ‘19 of the Telegraph confirms that, “The source from which China is financing its international investments is drying up... Total Belt and Road investments… fell 40 percent last year.”
As explained by Ciurtin 17, Without European investment it is highly improbable that other actors could feasibly join China in funding the initiative.
Second, is by providing legitimacy.
Dodwell 19 tells us that international backlash has halted the expansion of the BRI and countries are cancelling BRI projects and Chandran 19 tells us that many developing nations such as Pakistan, Malaysia, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Sierra Leone have backed away from previously negotiated BRI projects. Meyer 19 tells us that without the presence of stable institutions like the EU, countries will not remain in the BRI.
The continuation of the BRI would allow rising autocracies to become fully entrenched in authoritarianism for 2 reasons.
The first is increasing Chinese influence
A study by the CP Project ‘19 explains that, “If successfully implemented, the BRI could help reorient a large part of the world economy toward China. Increasing the amount of trade, investment, and connectivity between China and countries throughout Eurasia will also render these countries more dependent on the Chinese economy, increasing China’s economic leverage over them.”
Empirically when countries become dependent on China, they stop accepting criticisms from the west and other democratic countries because they are no longer dependent on them. This allows countries trending towards authoritarianism to become more autocratic.
Tucker 19 furthers tells us that since Hungary joined the BRI, they have stopped criticising China and refused to join many other EU colleagues in signing a joint letter criticising the BRI.
Another example is Cambodia as Rainsy 19 tells us that 70 percent of Cambodia’s trade moves through the BRI port of Sihanoukville and China is now Cambodia’s largest investor and donor. As a result, Cambodia ranks 2nd worst in the world for adherence to the rule of law and ranked 161st out of 180 countries in the Corruption Index.
Second, is the transferring of technology.
The BRI is creating new relationships between China and other states. The CP Project 19 explains that the new connections fostered by the BRI reconfigure relationships, reroute economic activity, and shift power within and between states.
These new relationships have allowed China to begin exporting its AI technology, as Feldstein 19 confirms that out of 90 countries around the world with government types ranging from closed authoritarian to flawed democracies, Chinese companies are exporting AI surveillance technology to at least 54 of these countries. This technology is packaged as part of China’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative.
This is worrisome, as it directly prevents citizen protests. Feldstein continues that, “In authoritarian countries, AI systems can directly abet domestic control and surveillance, helping internal security forces process massive amounts of information...more quickly and efficiently. The police can identify social trends and specific people who might threaten the regime based on the information uncovered by these systems.”
Jili 19 furthers China is planning to transfer mass facial recognition programs to Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Kenya through the BRI. That’s problematic because the purchase of spyware enables local governments to crackdown on protests and bolster oppressive practices.
Atreya 14 tells us that tells us that technology transfers require skilled workers and technicians to maintain the technology. When you negate you stop these surveillance systems from being maintained because China doesn’t have the funding to continue doing so and you prevent the further spread of this tech.
These tech trades reinforce authoritarian regimes, and prevents them from transitioning to democracy. Rainsy 19 explain that Protests are the most important tool the oppressed have to change the political structure of their governments and escape authoritarianism. Right now protests in semi authoritarian countries are pushing leaders to allow more space or have empowered opposition forces in ways that have started to rebalance lopsided political systems
The impact is the preventing authoritarianism from spreading.
Kasparov 17 tells us that 3.97 billion people live under non-democratic regimes, or 53 percent of the world’s population. Conditions in these governments are deplorable, as Abed 05 tells us that in totalitarian states, 47 percent of households experience torture, killings, disappearances, beatings, kidnappings, or exposure to biological weapons.
Kasparov 17 furthers that authoritarian regimes oppress their citizens and don’t allow for economic growth to occur. These countries have less innovation and fewer patents filed because their citizens are less educated and lack the right to free expression and creativity. However, citizen protests directly address poverty as Talukdar 12 of Texas Tech University states that, “If the democracy score increases by 1 percent relative to the countries autocracy score, the poverty rate falls by 15.5 percent.” | 905,435 |
365,289 | 379,171 | Blake Disclosure Policy | The Blake debate team believes that disclosure serves important educational and competitive goals. We believe that the public forum community is moving in a positive direction and we will support that movement. We will will attempt to disclosure our pro and con arguments at the end of each tournament day on this wiki. After we have run a contention level argument we will disclose that verbally if the other team will reciprocate prior to the round. We do think that the wiki is important to do at the end of the tournament day but realize that during the middle of rounds during a tournament day we may not have time so we will verbally disclose. As we run new contentions, new links or new impacts we will then disclose them on the wiki. Please do not look at our wiki information unless you plan to participate and also use the wiki. | 904,210 |
365,290 | 379,183 | Blake HR Neg v1 | Contention 1: Miscalulation
1. As of late Offensive cyber has increased drastically since Trump came into office
Dilanian 2019 (Ken Dilanian, an NBC News correspondent covering national security and intelligence. 23 June 2019. “Under Trump, U.S. military ramps up cyber offensive against other countries,” NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/under-trump-u-s-military-ramps-cyber-offensive-against-other-n1019281. DOA 10/7/19) WD
WASHINGTON — With little public scrutiny… Trump's well-documented affinity for Vladimir Putin.
Cyber now means cyber in the future
Pomerleau 19 (Mark Pomerleau, reporter for C4ISRNET, and Fifth Domain, Fifth Domain, July 25 2019, “What the future holds for Cyber Command”, https://www.fifthdomain.com/dod/cybercom/2019/07/25/what-the-future-holds-for-cyber-command/ // DOA: 10/17/19)JDE
“Now, Cyber … Naval War College, said.”
Cyber warfare technology is hard to assess, leaving countries suspicious
Mussington 2019 (David Mussington, adviser for cyber policy in the US Department of Defense and Obama’s Security Council, April 9 2019, “Strategic Stability, Cyber Operations and International”, Center for International Governance and Innovation, https://www.cigionline.org/articles/strategic-stability-cyber-operations-and-international-security, DOA October 15 2019)
An assertion frequently … a stable and persistent advantage in cyberspace seems unattainable.
Hacking into power grids escalate tensions
Sanger and Perlroth 19 (David Sanger, a senior writer and a national security correspondent and reporter of The New York Times, and Nicole Perlroth, cybersecurity contributor for The New York Times, The New York Times, June 15 2019, “U.S. Escalates Online attacks on Russia’s Power Grid”, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/15/us/politics/trump-cyber-russia-grid.html // DOA: 10/14/19) JDE
“WASHINGTON — The United States is… Washington and Moscow.”
Miscalc possible when hacking powergrids
Greenburg 19(Andy Greenburg, a senior writer for WIRED, covering security, privacy, information freedom, 18 June 2019, “Now Not to Prevent a Cyberwar with Russia”, https://www.wired.com/story/russia-cyberwar-escalation-power-grid/ DOA 10/29/19)KJR
"The idea that … are very hard to disentangle."
Miscalc almost happened in Cold War
Straub 19(Jeremy Straub, Professor of Computer Science at NDSU, 27 Aug 2019, “Hackers could Kill More People Than a Nuclear Weapon”, https://www.livescience.com/cyberattacks-could-kill-more-than-nuclear-attacks.html DOA 10/29/19)KJR
There are three basic … hardware of the digital realm.
The Pentagon drafted a new nuclear plan that would result in nuking countries that implement “crippling” cyber on the US
Sanger and Broad 2018 (David E. Sanger, a national security correspondent and a senior writer and a 3-time Pulitzer Prize winner. William J. Broad, a science journalist and senior writer at The New York Times and award winner. 16 Jan 2018. “Pentagon Suggests Countering Devastating Cyberattacks With Nuclear Arms,” The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/16/us/politics/pentagon-nuclear-review-cyberattack-trump.html. DOA 10/28/19) WD
WASHINGTON — A newly drafted… vulnerable to cyberweapons.
Econ Impact:
A cyber attack on US power grids would cost the US economy 1 trillion dollars
Reuters 2015 (Reuters Editorial, 7-8-2015, "Cyber attack on U.S. power grid could cost economy $1 trillion: report," U.S., https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cyberattack-power-survey/cyber-attack-on-u-s-power-grid-could-cost-economy-1-trillion-report-idUSKCN0PI0XS20150708 DOA 10/29/19) LX
A cyber … transport and infrastructure.
Def of Recession
Morah 19(Chizoba Morah, adjunct professor teaching college-level accounting, 25 Jun 2019, “What Causes a Recession?”, https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/cause-of-recession.asp DOA 10/30/19)KJR
The standard macroeconomic …aggregate demand slumps.
U.S. recession causes a domino effect
Mauldin 2018 (John Mauldin, financial writer, publisher, and New York Times bestselling-author, President of the investment advisory firm Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC, 24 May 2018, Forbes, "The 2020s Might Be The Worst Decade In U.S. History", https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2018/05/24/the-2020s-might-be-the-worst-decade-in-u-s-history/1#49cc3da548d3, Accessed 12/03/2018) IW
I recently wrote… —not just the rich.
900 million people could fall into poverty after an economic shock.
IMF 2013 (IMF, international Monetary Fund. March 14, 2013. IMF.org. “JOBS AND GROWTH: ANALYTICAL AND OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE FUND”, https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/031413.pdf?fbclid=IwAR25z8YmNU34qzj8tb7SOk5yi2xlPWZV6z-LN_jJ-kUZ4JqnCqpiOwr23LM . DOA: July 22, 2019.) ALP
At the same … and Prospects, 2013).
Contention 2: Nuclear Infrastructure
Russia has the ability and has shown the desire to sabotage nuclear powerplants
Perlroth and Sanger 18(Nicole Perlroth and David Sanger, NYT Cybersecurity Correspondent, NYT National Security Correspondent, 15 Mar 2018, “Cyberattacks put Russian Fingers at Power Plants, U.S. Says”, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/15/us/politics/russia-cyberattacks.html DOA 10/27/19)KJR
In an updated warning … the Obama administration.
The U.S.’s offensive cyber could cause a cyberwar
Nechepurenko 19 (Ivan Nechepurenko, a reporter with the Moscow bureau of The New York Times covering politics, economics, sports, and culture in Russia and the former Soviet republics, The New York Times, June 17 2019, “Kremlin Warns of Cyberwar After Report of U.S. Hacking Into Russian Powergrid”, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/17/world/europe/russia-us-cyberwar-grid.html // DOA: 10/19/19)JDE
“MOSCOW — The Kremlin… Mr. Peskov said.”
Russian hackers had the opportunity to sabotage Nuclear Power plants
Perlroth and Sanger 18(Nicole Perlroth and David Sanger, NYT Cybersecurity Correspondent, NYT National Security Correspondent, 15 Mar 2018, “Cyberattacks put Russian Fingers at Power Plants, U.S. Says”, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/15/us/politics/russia-cyberattacks.html DOA 10/27/19)KJR
The Trump … a digital security firm.
Even a small vulnerability can be catastrophic
Shah 19(Syed Sadam Hussain Shah, research assistant at the Center for International Strategic Studies, March 2019, “Offensive Cyber Operations and Nuclear Weapons”, https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/190313_Shah_OffensiveCyber_pageproofs2.pdf DOA 10/28/19)KJR
System-level access … in an inadvertent escalation
A cyberattack could damage a power plant and release radiation
Stroutland 18(Page Stroutland, Vice President of Scientific and Technical Affairs at NTI, 19 Mar 2018, “Cyberattacks on Nuclear Power Plants: How Worried should We Be?”, https://www.nti.org/analysis/atomic-pulse/cyberattacks-nuclear-power-plants-how-worried-should-we-be/ DOA 10/28/19)KJR
The New York Times … has been found in the Middle East.
Radiation poisoning kills
Hobbs 16(Bernie Hobbs, Science Writer for ABC News, 23 April 2016, “What does radiation from a nuclear disaster actually do to our bodies?”, https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2016-04-22/what-nuclear-radiation-does-to-your-body/7346324 DOA 10/27/19)KJR
Low doses of nuclear radiation … can kill in days or weeks.
Radiation causes death and cancer
USNRC 17(US Nuclear Regulatory Committee, 22 May 2017, “Backgrounder on the Biological Effects of Radiation”, https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/bio-effects-radiation.html DOA 10/28/19)KJR
Even so, the regulations… generations later if the genes are recessive.
Offensive cyber could escalate tensions
Sanger and Perlroth 19 (David Sanger, a senior writer and a national security correspondent and reporter of The New York Times, and Nicole Perlroth, cybersecurity contributor for The New York Times, The New York Times, June 15 2019, “U.S. Escalates Online attacks on Russia’s Power Grid”, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/15/us/politics/trump-cyber-russia-grid.html // DOA: 10/14/19) JDE
“WASHINGTON — The United States … Washington and Moscow.”
Nuclear powerplants can have devastating impacts
Shellenberger 18(Michael Shellenberger, Green energy writer and Forbes Contributor, 6 Jul 2018, “If Nuclear Power Plants are so vulnerable to Terrorist Attack, Why Don’t Terrorists Attack them?”, https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/07/06/if-nuclear-plants-are-so-vulnerable-to-terrorist-attack-why-dont-terrorists-attack-them/#3cf6e4a25877 DOA 10/30/19)KJR
It wasn’t the first time… Assembly Member Barbara Pompili. | 904,225 |
365,291 | 379,219 | April - TOC Finals | Contention 1 is Yemen.
Hazbun 19 explains... (Waleed Hazbun, Richard L. Chambers Professor of Middle Eastern Studies in the Department of Political Science at the University of Alabama. March 2019. “In America’s Wake: Turbulence and Insecurity in the Middle East” POMEPS Studies. https://pomeps.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/POMEPS_Studies_34_Web.pdf. DOA: March 14 2020) SRW
Teir efforts collapsed in the ……of conflict and escalation.
After America withdraws troops from the gulf, Saudi Arabia no longer has the security umbrella that enables adventurism into Yemen. This will cause them to turn to a negotiated solution to the conflict, as current conditions are ripe for an agreement: Hanly of March 2020 explains…
(Ken Hanly, journalist and retired ……. could end up with no power at all.
This is true empirically,
Parsi 2020 (TRITA PARSI, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and Adjunct Associate Professor at Georgetown University. JANUARY 6, 2020. “The Middle East Is More Stable When the United States Stays Away,” Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/06/the-middle-east-is-more-stable-when-the-united-states-stays-away/. DOA: 3/22/20)AO
Instead, recognizing that the …… Iranian-Saudi pledge of nonaggression.
A power sharing agreement is critical.
Wezeman 2018 (Pieter D. Wezeman is a Senior Researcher with the SIPRI Arms Transfers and Military Expenditure Programme, “Saudi Arabia, armaments and conflict in the Middle East”, The Hill, December 14th 2018, https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2018/saudi-arabia-armaments-and-conflict-middle-east. DOA: January 29th 2019) TG
Since the spring of 2015, ……, fuel and medical supplies.
Indeed, Landry 2019 concludes...
(Carole LANDRY, “Warring Yemen parties agree compromise on Hodeida pullback”, Yahoo News, February 7th 2019, https://news.yahoo.com/warring-yemen-parties-agree-compromise-hodeida-pullback-184928057.html. DOA: February 8th 2019) TG
The Huthis are refusing ……million people on the brink of famine.
Contention 2 is Nuclear Submarines
US military presence in the Strait of Hormuz pushes Iran to develop nuclear subs.
O’Connor, Newsweek, 4-17-2020
Tom, “IRAN SAYS IT WANTS NUCLEAR SUBMARINES TO POWER UP FLEET AFTER CONFRONTATION WITH U.S. NAVY” https://www.newsweek.com/iran-says-it-wants-nuclear-submarines-power-fleet-after-confrontation-us-navy-1498590, accessed 4-19-20, TAP
The head of Iran's navy has called for ……threats and sanctions," he added.
They have the capability.
Weinthal, Jerusalem Post, 4-19-2020
Benjamin, “Iran's regime will develop nuclear submarines says navy commander” https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/irans-regime-will-develop-nuclear-submarines-says-navy-commander-624880, accessed 4-19-20, TAP
BERLIN – The head of Iran’s navy …… chance of a viable nuclear sub.”
No checks on prolif – nuclear subs give Iran plausible deniability.
Keck, The Diplomat, 2013
Zachary, “Iran’s Nuclear Submarine Gambit” https://thediplomat.com/2013/04/irans-nuclear-submarine-gambit/, accessed 4-20-20, TAP
At the same time, the nuclear submarine …….. maintaining some plausible deniability.
The impact is accidents
Nuclear subs make accidents inevitable.
Mian et al, Princeton University Program on Science and Global Security physicist, 2019
Zia, M.V. Ramana is the Simons Chair in Disarmament, Global and Human Security at the Liu Institute for Global Issues in the School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, University of British Columbia, A.H. Nayyar is a visiting researcher at Princeton University’s Program on Science and Global Security, JOURNAL FOR PEACE AND NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, “Nuclear Submarines in South Asia: New Risks and Dangers” https://sgs.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/2019-11/mian-ramana-nayyar-2019.pdf, accessed 4-20-20, TAP
There is both empirical …….. this structural conditions for risk.
Nuclear accidents would collapse marine biodiversity which causes extinction.
Schofield, 2014
Clive, Director of Research at the Australian Centre for Ocean Resource and Security University of Wollongong (3/10/2014, Clive, “Why our precious oceans are under threat,” http://uowblogs.com/globalchallenges/2014/03/10/the-threats-facing-our-precious-oceans/, accessed 4-20-20, TAP
Science fiction author Arthur …… largely (95 per cent) unexplored.
Contention 3 is a US-Iran war.
Aggressive foreign policy has put America and Iran on a collision course. Coronavirus is making war in the middle east even more likely:
Germanos april (Andrea Germanos, staff writer for CommonDreams, April 1st 2020, “Despite Calls for Global Ceasefire, Trump Threatens War With Iran Amid COVID-19” https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/04/01/despite-calls-global-ceasefire-trump-threatens-war-iran-amid-covid-19 DOA 4/17/20) CJV
As the coronavirus pandemic …… Qassem Soleimani as one example.
Kaye 20 continues
Kaye 2020 (March 26, 2020 Dalia Dassa Kaye, Director, Center for Middle East Public Policy; Senior Political Scientist at RAND, “Covid-19 Impats on strategic dynamics in the middle east,” RAND https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/03/covid-19-impacts-on-strategic-dynamics-in-the-middle.html DOA: 4/1/20) HS
U.S.-Iran escalation. Both sides ……l pandemic shifts priorities.
Withdrawing troops from Iran’s backyard reduces the probability of US-Iran war for two reasons.
1. First is provoking Iran.
Continued military presence risks miscalculation and provocation of Iran
Aboudouh 20(Ahmed Aboudouh, consultant editor at The Independent, April 11th 2020, The Independent, “The US is eager to leave Iraq soon and the coronavirus pandemic will accelerate it,” https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/us-troops-military-conflict-iraq-iran-trump-a9460496.html DOA 4/18/20) CJV
US fears of an imminent, ……seem more feasible.
Absent a US threat of invasion, Iran will cease its escalatory actions
Travino 13 (Rusty Travino, University of New Mexico, Fall 2013, “Is Iran an Off an an Offensives Realist or a Def es Realist or a Defensive Realist? A Theor e Realist? A Theoretical Reflection on Iranian Motives for Creating Instability” https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google.com/andhttpsredir=1andarticle=1328andcontext=jss DOA 4/19/20) MDS
After examining Iran's actions and …… military action is discouraged.
2. Second is a shift to diplomacy.
America’s approach to Iran has been overwhelmingly informed by aggression.
Jones 2011 confirms (Toby Jones, assistant professor of history at Rutgers University. December 22, 2011. The Atlantic. “Don't Stop at Iraq: Why the U.S. Should Withdraw From the Entire Persian Gulf”, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/12/dont-stop-at-iraq-why-the-us-should-withdraw-from-the-entire-persian-gulf/250389/ . DOA: March 3, 2020.) ALP
Led by Saudi Arabia, the Arab …… easily spin out of control.
Withdrawing troops sends a signal that the US will shift to diplomacy, breaking the cycle of escalation
Harb 2019 (Imad K Harb, Imad K Harb is Director of Research and Analysis at Arab Center Washington DC. 16 Oct 2019. “Saudi Arabia and Iran may finally be ready for rapprochement,” Aljazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/saudi-arabia-iran-finally-ready-rapprochement-191015103242982.html. DOA: 3/22/20)AO
One thing is sure, however: …… wars look minor in comparison.
A US-Iran war would be beyond devastating. It would cause, according to Chussodovsky 2018...
(Prof Michel Chossudovsky, 5-26-2018, "When War Games Go Live? "Simulating World War III"," Global Research, https://www.globalresearch.ca/when-war-games-go-live-preparing-to-attack-iran-simulating-world-war-iii/28542
The complacency of Western ……extensive radioactive fallout. | 904,266 |
365,292 | 379,235 | January - Blake Neg | Venezuela is crucial to Hezbollah—it’s a key to supporting other operations in Latin America.
Savage ’19 Savage, Sean. “Are Iran and Hezbollah turning Venezuela into the next Syria?.” Isreal Hayom, 7 June 2019, https://www.israelhayom.com/2019/06/07/are-iran-and-hezbollah-turning-venezuela-into-the-next-syria/. Premier
Indeed, Maduro and …… spillover from Venezuela."
US sanctions cut off financing for Hezbollah. That spills over to alleviate operations in the Middle East.
Neumann ’19 Neumann, Vanessa (Juan Guaidó’s appointed ambassador and chief of diplomatic mission to the United Kingdom; long-standing expert on crime-terror pipelines). “How Hezbollah evades sanctions in Venezuela and partakes in Maduro’s drug trade.” AlArabiya, 8 May 2019, http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2019/05/08/How-Hezbollah-evades-sanctions-in-Venezuela-and-partakes-in-Maduro-s-drug-trade.html. Premier
While Russian …… in the Middle East as well.
Hezbollah posed a threat to millions of citizens in the middle east alone
Counter extremism project (Counter extremism project, “Hezbollah” https://www.counterextremism.com/threat/hezbollah DOA 12/21/19)
Iran has supported of ….. primary sponsor of Hezbollah.
Hezbollah poses serious threats to all of the Western hemisphere.
Singer ’18 Singer, Robert. “With roots in Latin America, Hezbollah is the real terror threat in our hemisphere.” Miami Herald, 10 May 2018, https://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-ed/article210889749.html. Premier
As the world focuses ……the next terrorist battleground.
Trump is turning against the admin’s aggressive strategy
Gearan 2019 (Anne Gearan, 5-9-2019, "Frustrated Trump says his adviser wants to get him ‘into a war’ in Venezuela," Independent, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-venezuela-war-john-bolton-maduro-guaido-us-coup-a8905906.html 9 May 2019) JJ
Donald Trump is questioning …… senior administration official said.
US won’t go to war against venezuela
AFP 2019 (The AFP, "Pompeo defends military restraint on Venezuela," France 24, https://www.france24.com/en/20191202-pompeo-defends-military-restraint-on-venezuela-1 , December 2 2019, DoA 12/12/19) JJ
Secretary of State ….. millions of people to flee.
Trump sanctions are alternative to military intervention
Telesur 2017 (Telesur, Spanish speaking publication, 29 August 2017 "Venezuelan Constituent Assembly Passes Decree Against US Sanctions” https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Venezuela-Constituent-Assembly-Debates-Response-to-US-Sanctions-20170829-0009.html 12/15/19) JJ
Venezuela’s National Constituent …… announce a plan of action Friday.
First link
Trump needs Florida, and Florida needs the Cuban/Venezuelan vote which is earned through sanctions
Groppe 2019 (Maureen Groppe, 2-1-2019, "Trump's Venezuela policy is also good 2020 politics in key state of Florida," Knoxville News Sentinel, https://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/02/01/trump-venezuela-policy-also-good-2020-politics-key-state-florida-maduro-guaido/2730779002/ DoA 12/15/19) JJ
And that could help …… most populous county: Miami-Dade.
Venezuelans are a swing constituency in a swing state
Wells 2019 (Laura Wells, activist and politician of the Green Party, 6-14-2019, "Why did both Obama and Trump sanction Venezuela?," gp.org, https://www.gp.org/obama_and_trump_sanctioned_venezuela 12/15/19) JJ
One aspect relates to the ……. along with the story "everybody knows"?
People actually care about FoPo in South Florida
Groppe 2019 (Maureen Groppe, 2-1-2019, "Trump's Venezuela policy is also good 2020 politics in key state of Florida," Knoxville News Sentinel, https://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/02/01/trump-venezuela-policy-also-good-2020-politics-key-state-florida-maduro-guaido/2730779002/ DoA 12/15/19) JJ
“These are all linked and …… representing Guaido in the U.S.
Second link
The US is mainly concerned with the oil market with sanctions
Roache 2019 (Madeline Roache, journalist for Al Jazeera, 2-28-2019, "Sanctions, Venezuela, and US intentions," Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/sanctions-venezuela-intentions-190226124044497.html DoA 12/12/19) JJ
Following Guaido's self-proclamation …… and maintaining US influence in Latin America.
Trump wanted war in Venezuela because they have oil
Ward 2019 (Alexander Ward, Vox, 2-20-2019, "Andrew McCabe claims Trump wanted war in Venezuela because "they have all that oil"," Vox, https://www.vox.com/world/2019/2/20/18233394/mccabe-trump-venezuela-war-oil-lawrence
Andrew McCabe claims Trump …… he plans to send troops in the future.
Sanctions turn Venezuela from a geopolitical L into a W
Ayres 2019 (Sabra Ayres 1-25-2019, "Russia and China, heavily invested in Venezuela, warily watch the political turmoil," Los Angeles Times, https://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-venezuela-russia-china-20190125-story.html 12/15/19) JJ
“Russia’s interest and …… the production of smartphones.
Trump admin has decided that it will never de-escalate Venezuela
Jacobs et al 2019 (Jennifer Jacobs, Saleha Mohsin, Ben Bartenstein,Josh Wingrove, 12-6-2019, "Trump Weighs More-Muscular Venezuela Moves on Doubts Over Guaido," Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-06/trump-revisits-venezuela-strategy-as-confidence-in-guaido-wanes
Regardless of Guaido’s …… Venezuela’s export income
US has intervened 56 times in Latin America
Hynes 2019 (H. Patricia Hynes Is A Retired Professor Of Environmental Health From Boston University School Of Public Health and Current Chair Of The Board Of The Traprock Center For Peace And Justice. She Has Written And Edited 7 Books., 8-25-2019, "Economic Sanctions: War by Another Name," Common Dreams, https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/08/25/economic-sanctions-war-another-name 12/15/19) JJ
Recall the Monroe Doctrine …… and leftist movements.
Precision air strikes would destroy economic infrastructure, sucking us into a ground war, killing thousands, pushing out 8 million refugees and sending the country into anarchy
Mora 19 (Frank O. Mora, 3-19-2019, "What a Military Intervention in Venezuela Would Look Like," Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/venezuela/2019-03-19/what-military-intervention-venezuela-would-look DOA 12/11/19) MDS
A precision military intervention …… years in a much smaller country.
Ground invasion gets the US caught up with civilian militias and guerilla groups, leading to a military occupation lasting many years
Mora 19 (Frank O. Mora, 3-19-2019, "What a Military Intervention in Venezuela Would Look Like," Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/venezuela/2019-03-19/what-military-intervention-venezuela-would-look DOA 12/11/19) MDS
GROUND INVASION Rather …… between the two extremes. | 904,284 |
365,293 | 379,225 | Septober - Presentation Semis | Uniqueness/impact
Nienaber September 5 (Michael Nienaber, Reuters, 9-5-2019, "Recession risks rise for Germany as industrial orders plunge," U.S., https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-economy-industrial-orders/recession-risks-rise-for-germany-as-industrial-orders-plunge-idUSKCN1VQ0M1 DOA 9/6/19) MDS
BERLIN (Reuters) - Weaker …… quarter,” Gitzel added.
?
Amaro 19 (Silvia Amaro, journalist for CNBC, “A recession in Germany could mean economic damage for these countries,” CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/28/a-recession-in-germany-could-mean-economic-damage-for-these-countries.html, Jun 28 2019)
The German economy …… economy to the region.
?
Mauldin 2018 (John Mauldin, financial writer, publisher, and New York Times bestselling-author, President of the investment advisory firm Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC, 24 May 2018, Forbes, "The 2020s Might Be The Worst Decade In U.S. History", https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2018/05/24/the-2020s-might-be-the-worst-decade-in-u-s-history/1#49cc3da548d3, Accessed 12/03/2018) IW
I recently wrote …… everyone—not just the rich.
?
IMF (The International Monetary Fund, “Jobs and Growth: Analytical and Operational Considerations For the Fund,” 2013, https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/031413.pdf, DoA 7/21/19) JJ
Across OECD countries, …… and Prospects, 2013).
Subpoint a
Kohl 2019 (Tristain Kohl, “The Belt and Road Initiative’s Effect on Supply-Chain Trade: Evidence from Structural Gravity Equations”, www.academic.oup.com/cjres/article/12/1/77/5289371, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society Studies, 2016. DOA: July 13th 2019) TG
While China …… Tables A2 and A3, respectively.
?
Kohl 2019 (Tristain Kohl, “The Belt and Road Initiative’s Effect on Supply-Chain Trade: Evidence from Structural Gravity Equations”, www.academic.oup.com/cjres/article/12/1/77/5289371, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society Studies, 2016. DOA: July 13th 2019) TG
Alternatively, …… such infrastructural developments.
?
Pelkmans and Francois 18 (Pelkmans and Francois, Center for European Policy Studies, “T OMOR R OW’S SILK ROAD” 2018, https://espas.secure.europarl.europa.eu/orbis/sites/default/files/generated/document/en/TomorrowsSilkRoad20with20cover.pdf DOA 9/07/19) MDS
EU bilateral exports to ……exports (of goods mainly) to the EU.
?
Bosworth 12 (Barry P. Bosworth, senior fellow in the Economic Studies Program at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., 12-27-2012, "Export Expansion: The Key to Economic Recovery," Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2012/12/27/export-expansion-the-key-to-economic-recovery/ DOA 9/6/19) MDS
Instead, economic recovery …… is unlikely to be realized.
?
Beverelli et al 2011 (Cosmo Beverelli of the WTO, Madina Kukenova of the University of Lausenne, Nadia Rocha of the WTO. “ARE YOU EXPERIENCED? SURVIVAL AND RECOVERY OF TRADE RELATIONS AFTER BANKING CRISES”
https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd201103_e.pdf , 2011. DoA 7/22/19) JJ
In this section we …… becomes slightly smaller.
Subpoint b
Ellyatt 19 (Holly Ellyatt, CNBC, 4-9-2019, “Europe’s economy is experiencing a crisis of confidence,” CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/09/europes-economy-appears-to-be-experiencing-a-crisis-of-confidence.html DOA 10/10/19) MDS
IHS’ Chief Business …… and confidence,” he added.
?
O’Trakoun 17 (John O’Trakoun, 12-7-2017, "China’s belt and road initiative and regional perceptions of China," Business Economics, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s11369-017-0062-0 DOA 10/11/19) MDS
China’s Belt and Road …… absolute score for US perceptions.
?
Parker 10(Jeffrey A. Parker, Professor of Economics at Reed College, Reed College Coursebook, “THEORIES OF INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES,” https://www.reed.edu/economics/parker/s10/314/book/Ch15.pdf DOA 10/7/19) CJV
The accelerator model …… adopt that interpretation here.
Subpoint c
Cornell 19 (Phillip Cornell, senior fellow with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, 5-30-2019, "Energy Governance and China’s Bid for Global Grid Integration ," Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/energy-governance-and-china-sbid-for-global-grid-integration DOA 7/15/19) MDS
That report was …… allocation and market trade.
?
Cornell 19 (Phillip Cornell, senior fellow with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, 5-30-2019, "Energy Governance and China’s Bid for Global Grid Integration ," Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/energy-governance-and-china-sbid-for-global-grid-integration DOA 7/15/19) MDS
In China’s case, there …… power abroad—mostly to China.)
?
Science Daily. “Solar Energy Could Turn the Belt and Road Initiative Green.” June 2019. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/06/190627114010.htm //RJ
The analysis also reveals a mismatch …… carbon emissions does exist."
?
Cornell 19 (Phillip Cornell, senior fellow with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, 5-30-2019, "Energy Governance and China’s Bid for Global Grid Integration ," Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/energy-governance-and-china-sbid-for-global-grid-integration DOA 7/15/19) MDS
Long-distance high-…… for economic connectivity.
?
Cornell 19 (Phillip Cornell, senior fellow with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, 5-30-2019, "Energy Governance and China’s Bid for Global Grid Integration ," Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/energy-governance-and-china-sbid-for-global-grid-integration DOA 7/15/19) MDS
Energy projects have always …… power and influence in the 21st century. | 904,272 |
365,294 | 379,207 | Valley Pro Economy | We affirm.
Contention 1 Boosting the Economy
Europe is entering a recession right now. Goodman, from three weeks ago, writes
Goodman 2019 (Peter S. Goodman, the European economics correspondent for The New York Times, based in London. 2 September 2019. “For Europe, the Threat of a No-Deal Brexit Comes at a Bad Time,” The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/02/business/brexit-europe-recession.html. DOA 9/6/19.) WD
Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is teetering toward recession as factory orders diminish. Italy is weakening in the face of tumultuous politics that have discouraged investment. The rest of Europe is still growing at a healthy clip, but Germany and Italy alone account for 40 percent of the annual economic output of the eurozone — the 19 countries that share the euro currency.This is the backdrop as Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain intensifies preparations to yank his country from the European Union at the end of October absent a deal governing future relations. On Tuesday, lawmakers in Parliament were getting ready for a showdown with Mr. Johnson over a no-deal Brexit. The implications have been a source of anxiety for months on both sides of the English Channel — predictions of crippling traffic jams at ports, confusion over customs procedures, and a general state of business-disrupting bewilderment. Now, without an emergency intervention this week in the British Parliament, things are about to get very real. For Europe, heading toward the Brexit cliffs in a diminished state was not supposed to be part of the plan. Only two years ago, Europe’s economy was expanding more rapidly than at any time since the global financial crisis a decade before. European leaders assumed they could drive a hard bargain with Britain in negotiating the terms of their breakup. If Britain followed through on threats to walk away without a deal, trade would surely suffer, but Europe calculated it was strong enough to weather the resulting chaos.“There was an idea that the European Union could withstand a hard Brexit, that it would be bad but manageable,” said Angel Talavera, senior eurozone economist at Oxford Economics, a research institution in London. “Now, there is an increasing concern that the eurozone is really weakening significantly, and that a hard Brexit could be the thing that would send it into recession.”
Subpoint 1: Free Trade Agreements
Kohl 2019 writes
(Tristain Kohl, “The Belt and Road Initiative’s Effect on Supply-Chain Trade: Evidence from Structural Gravity Equations”, www.academic.oup.com/cjres/article/12/1/77/5289371, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society Studies, 2016. DOA: July 13th 2019) TG
While China already participates in trade agreements with countries in southern Asia, it does not yet have any trade agreements beyond its WTO commitments with respect to Kazakhstan, Russia or the European Union. Figure 2 provides an overview of the results when the PRC were to invest in distance-decreasing infrastructure improvements to facilitate trade with Russia and the EU.14 For ease of exposition, we will discuss the EU average, Russia and China, while full country-level information for trade and welfare is provided in Tables A2 and A3, respectively.
EU joining the BRi will create these Free Trade Agreements as Xinquan writes
Xinquan No date (Tu Xinquan, Executive Dean and Professor, the China Institute for WTO Studies at UIBE. Visiting scholar, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS); Visiting researcher, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) and WTO Secretariat. Researches the WTO, Chinese trade policy, Agreement on Government Procurement and US-China trade relations., No Date, “Is the Belt and Road Initiative a Chinese-style Regionalism?” http://www.keia.org/sites/default/files/publications/jukas_3.1_is_the_belt_and_road_initiative_a_chinese_style_regionalism.pdf DOA: September 20 2019) SP
This chapter concludes that both FTA strategy and BRI are more for strategic purposes than economic goals. BRI is designed to increase economic integration between China and BRI countries through improving infrastructure connectivity, enhancing policy coordination, promoting trade and investment cooperation, facilitating financial flows, and reinforcing people-to-people communications. Promoting trade and investment cooperation is close to the usual concept of regional economic integration, which means dismantling trade and investment barriers between regional partners. Official documents of BRI endorse trade and investment facilitation and liberalization. One main target is to build a Belt and Road free trade area network.21 Since the listed examples are all bilateral FTAs with BRI countries, the network is supposed to mean China’s bilateral FTAs with BRI countries rather than an FTA covering all BRI countries or a FTA network including these FTAs without China. Therefore, it is hard to say that BRI is designed to promote regional economic integration in the Belt and Road region. It is only about further trade and investment facilitation and liberalization between China and BRI countries. Since many of China’s FTA partners are not in East Asia or even Asia, it is debatable whether these FTAs are meant to promote regional economic integration.
These FTAs are critical as it will increase trade
Pelkmans 16 (Jacques Pelkmans, Senior Fellow, CEPS, and study leader. April 2016. “Tomorrow's Silk Road: Assessing an EU-China Free Trade Agreement Executive Summary,”https://www.amfori.org/sites/default/files/CEPS20-20EU-China20agreement20-20Summary.pdf. DOA 7/13/19.) JDE
EU bilateral exports to China increase strongly, by between 79.2 (modest) and 110.64 (ambitious), while there is a tiny drop in exports to the rest of the world. Overall EU exports go up by between 2.2 and 3.2, respectively. China’s exports to the EU increase by between 39.2 (modest) and 56.9 (ambitious), with a larger increase in total exports in value than for the EU. In addition, in China’s case, there is a slight increase in exports to the rest of the world. Hence, the trade effects of the FTA are quite powerful, with more than a doubling of EU exports and a 60 increase in the already very large Chinese exports (of goods mainly) to the EU.
Subpoint 2: Infrastructure.
EU is in desperate need for new infrastructure. Collins writes in 2017
Collins 2017 (Michael Collins, Writer for Euractiv.com, January 2 2017, “European infrastructure needs more than public funding” Euractiv.com https://www.euractiv.com/section/euro-finance/opinion/european-infrastructure-needs-more-than-public-funding/ DOA:July 16 2019) SP
Infrastructure provides the tracks upon which most of our lives run. Roads, rail and shipping carry people and goods around the world; everyday necessities such as hospitals, energy, fresh water and waste disposal; not to mention the communications networks, schools and universities that underpin our social and cultural lives. But the global financial crisis has meant European governments have had to rein in spending, leaving less capital to fund critical infrastructure improvements. Today, US President-elect Donald Trump is promising to inject $1 trillion into infrastructure to help boost the economy, while China is investing more in it than Europe and the US combined. It is clear that Europe needs to do more to remain competitive. The recently extended European Fund for Strategic Investment is a welcome source of funding but Europe must triple its current levels of infrastructure expenditure to meet future demands, according to the European Investment Bank. Private capital needs to be able to increase its contribution, but many barriers stand in the way.
EU joining the BRI will increase infrastructure in Europe. As the USCC 2018 writes
USCC 18 (US China Economic and Security Review Commission, Government organization, 2 November 2018, “CHINA AND THE WORLD SECTION 1: BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE” https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Annual_Report/Chapters/Chapter20320Section201-20Belt20and20Road20Initative_0.pdf DOA 7/9/18) MDS
Infrastructure has been a major component of BRI, with the transportation and energy sectors receiving about 80 percent of total BRI-related investment.12 Through the construction of largescale infrastructure projects, BRI also provides an opportunity to absorb some—though not all—of China’s massive excess industrial capacity.13 The American Enterprise Institute and Heritage Foundation’s Chinese Global Investment Tracker put BRI’s footprint at roughly $340 billion between 2014 and 2017.14 The value of new engineering and construction contracts signed by Chinese companies in BRI countries has grown strongly: in 2017, Chinese enterprises signed more than 7,200 new overseas contracts worth $144 billion with BRI countries, up from nearly 4,000 new contracts valued at $92.6 billion in 2015.15 Despite the high volume of contracts signed, BRI projects outside of China have progressed slowly. According to Jonathan Hillman, director of the Reconnecting Asia Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China itself is the biggest part of BRI and where most of the investment is going.16 In testimony to the Commission, Mr. Hillman noted there is no official definition for what qualifies as a BRI project, adding that “by design, BRI is more a loose brand than a program with strict criteria.”17 Although there is no publicly available official list of BRI projects, after five years some trends can be discerned.18 A large
This creates jobs as Covert writes
(Bryce Covert, Writer for Think Progress, May 6, 2014 “Infrastructure Spending Creates Thousands Of Jobs, Billions In Growth And Reduces The Deficit“ , https://thinkprogress.org/infrastructure-spending-creates-thousands-of-jobs-billions-in-growth-and-reduces-the-deficit-1c87961e2f2/ DOA: July 16, 2019) SCK
Investing $1.3 billion in infrastructure next year would add at least 29,000 jobs and $2 billion to economic growth while reducing the deficit by $200 million, according to a new report from Standard and Poors. That kind of spending would likely add 29,000 jobs to the construction sector, particularly because unemployment in that industry is still so high, it finds. That means the jobs added are likely to be new ones, not just hiring people who are already employed. But even more jobs would probably be added to related industries. The report cites a 2012 study that found 61 percent of jobs directly created by infrastructure investment would be in that industry, with another 12 percent in manufacturing and 7 percent in retail and wholesale trade. “Almost nine out of 10 of those jobs would be defined as middle-class,” SandP; notes, “or those paying between the 25th and 75h percentile of the distribution of wages.”
Additionally this Infrastructure boosts global trade. As Bachtell 18
(John Bachtell is in the Illinois Bureau of People's World. He served as national chair of the Communist Party USA from 2014 to 2019. Previously, he was Illinois organizer for the party, and is active in labor, peace, and justice struggles. He grew up in Ohio and currently lives in Chicago. July 27th, 2018. “China embraces rather than fears a multi-polar world.” https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/china-embraces-rather-than-fears-a-multi-polar-world/ DOA 09/06/19) GSH
China’s foreign policy will increasingly impact economic development and global governance. A case in point is the Belt-Road Initiative (BRI) – $1 trillion investment in road, rail, and maritime ports, energy pipelines, power grids, refineries, connecting 65 countries (in particular Asia and Africa) with trade and cultural exchange. Once complete, the BRI, called the largest infrastructure project in modern history, could boost global trade by an estimated 12 percent.
Subpoint 3: Foreign Direct Investment
China’s FDI in Europe is low right now, joining BRI will solve. Zhang 2019 explains why
(Xuehing Zhang, 2018/2019 Fox Fellow at Yale University and writer about world politics, May 15 2019 “In the uneasy trade triangle with the US, China and Europe can address security concerns and deepen their partnership” https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3010272/uneasy-trade-triangle-us-china-and-europe-can-address DOA: September 20 2019) SP
Realistically, a common framework on screening is hard to achieve. Current screening, at most, asks member states for voluntary reporting to Brussels about proposed investments, but lacks enforcement. Not all EU member states have national screening systems, not to mention the varying stances on welcoming foreign investment. Also, administrative resources for screenings are costly. China's national flag, left, flies beside European Union flags ahead of the EU-China summit in Brussels on April 9. The EU and China managed to agree on a joint statement, papering over divisions on trade in a bid to present a common front to US President Donald Trump, EU officials said. Photo: Bloomberg China's national flag, left, flies beside European Union flags ahead of the EU-China summit in Brussels on April 9. The EU and China managed to agree on a joint statement, papering over divisions on trade in a bid to present a common front to US President Donald Trump, EU officials said. Photo: Bloomberg Share: Given that such a mechanism could have negative consequences for both authorities and private firms, an EU-China investment agreement is perhaps the better alternative. The aim of such a rules-based agreement is to create a more conducive environment for capital flows. Europe and China, with strong co-dependency, will not end their marriage on trade and sectoral cooperation. They are reviewing and adding more rules for a new paradigm to make the relationship stable and sustainable. Accordingly, with the rules-based partnership principles, China’s Belt and Road Initiative may complement Europe’s Connecting Europe to Asia Strategy for further intense exchange in trade, goods, people and culture, with the goal of reciprocity and mutual benefit.
That is why when Eastern European Countries joined China’s BRI, foreign investment increased dramatically. Zhang continues,
(Xuehing Zhang, 2018/2019 Fox Fellow at Yale University and writer about world politics, May 15 2019 “In the uneasy trade triangle with the US, China and Europe can address security concerns and deepen their partnership” https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3010272/uneasy-trade-triangle-us-china-and-europe-can-address DOA: September 20 2019) SP
Some in Brussels and EU member state capitals view China as a significant challenger, as well as a major growth vector. First, China has built economic connections to EU member states with unprecedented scale and speed. China’s foreign direct investment to the EU hit a record of €37 billion (US$41.5 billion) in 2016, up from €2.1 billion in 2010. Second, some view China’s assertive political reach as an attempt to split the EU, testing the union by giving Eastern European countries huge benefits in exchange for vocal advocacy of Beijing stances in international settings. In Europe, China’s economic cold war with the West is over before it’s begun China has an ambitious strategy in Eastern Europe with infrastructure projects under the China-CEEC framework – the cooperation network between China and 16 central and eastern European states – and sees that economic aid is vital for less wealthy countries. Portugal’s largest Atlantic port, Sines, awaits redevelopment with Chinese funding. Italy was the first G7 nation to sign on to the “Belt and Road Initiative”, offering China port access.
Additionally FDI increases domestic investment in long term Jude 2018
(Cristina Jude, The citations in the article were this: Banque de France, Paris, and University of Orléans, Laboratoire d'économie d'Orléans, France, 29 August 2018 “Does FDI crowd out domestic investment in transition countries?” https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ecot.12184 DOA:July 23 2019) SP
When looking at the relationship between FDI and domestic investment, theoretical studies suggest that FDI may crowd out domestic investment in the short term, while leading to a long?term complementarity. In order to test this hypothesis, we extend the empirical framework of Agosin and Machado (2005) by including some additional determinants of investment. Second, we investigate the individual effects of greenfield FDI and MandA on domestic investment. Finally, we provide some information on the nature of the interaction between foreign and local investors, real and financial interaction, with different implications for the dynamics of local investment and with potential divergent policy implications. Our empirical analysis on CEEC points to the existence of a creative destruction phenomenon. FDI crowds out domestic investors in the short?term. As domestic firms progressively adjust and foreign affiliates develop trade linkages with local firms, the effect on domestic investment eventually becomes beneficial and tends towards a crowding in. The entry mode of foreign investors seems to matter for wthe impact of FDI on domestic investment. Our results suggest that greenfield FDI has a strong initial crowding out effect, while MandA have no immediate contribution to capital accumulation. Greenfield FDI appears prone to developing trade linkages within the local economy, therefore leading to a long?term crowding in effect on domestic investment.
By creating more Free Trade Agreements, Infrastructure, and FDI, Europe will avoid recession as
Elmer concludes in 2019
Elmer 2019 (Keegan Elmer, a reporter at the Post covering China in world affairs, including US-China relations and China's relationship with its neighbours. He has degrees from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and the University of Helsinki, 26 March 2019, “China’s fragile trade economy could be at risk, as EU outlook goes from bad to worse” https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3003362/chinas-fragile-trade-economy-could-be-risk-eu-outlook-goes DOA: July 16 2019) SP
“The risk of Europe as a region falling into recession this year remains low, but has increased in recent weeks as a combination of major headwinds gather force,” Lundie said. Meanwhile, it has been suggested that to mitigate the risk of a recession in the EU, China could offer financial support. Jiang Shixue, a professor of international relations at Shanghai University argued that Beijing could potentially invest more heavily in the EU, even through the controversial “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI). “China might offer a kind of helping hand to the EU to avoid recession. As you can imagine, if China could make more investments, either inside or outside the framework of the BRI, that would help the EU stimulate its economy,” Jiang said On Saturday, Italy became the first major European nation to sign up to the BRI, in the hope that Chinese investment would help boost its sagging economy. Italy’s economy contracted in both the third and fourth quarters last year, with economic indicators early this year remaining weak. Faced with the prospect of continued weak growth, Italy’s populist government pushed ahead with BRI membership despite strong objections from the European Commission, the German government and the Trump administration.
Stopping this recession is critical as Khan 19 writes
(Yusuf Khan, Writer for Markets Insider, August 20 2019 “Europe has a 70 chance of falling into recession, top economist warns” Market Insider https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/mohamed-el-erian-europe-has-70-chance-falling-into-recession-2019-8-1028458673
Rising recession fears in Germany, along with rising risk of a UK no-deal Brexit, make Europe an unexpected fault line for a global downturn," it added.
And the IMF quantifies that a global recession would lead to,
(Olivier Blanchard, Carlo Cottarelli, and Siddharth Tiwari, 03/14/2013, JOBS AND GROWTH: ANALYTICAL AND OPERATIONAL
CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE FUND, https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/031413.pdf DOA: July 16, 2019) SCK
Following very weak growth since 2009, world growth is projected to be only around 3½ percent this year, about 2 percentage points below the pre-Great Recession years (IMF, 2012a). Over 200 million people across the world are unemployed, with youth and longterm unemployment at alarming levels in many countries. Globally, the employment rate (the employment to population ratio) remains at 60 percent—its lowest level in two decades—and unemployment is projected to remain elevated for several years (International Institute for Labour Studies, World of Work, 2012). Despite some recent narrowing of the gender gap, the average female Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) remains low at around 50 percent (World Bank 2011; OECD 2012; Annex 1). Income inequality has increased in past decades in many Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries (OECD, Going for Growth, 2012) and is also on the rise in many others. Across OECD countries, the gender wage gap is estimated at 16 percent (OECD 2012). Although we are on track to meet the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halving the proportion of people living in extreme poverty (on less than $1 a day) by 2015 relative to 1990 levels, over 900 million people are expected to remain vulnerable to being pushed back into poverty in the face of adverse shocks (UN, World Economic Situation and Prospects, 2013).
Additionally, BRI will help recessions recover as Beverelli writes in 2011
(Cosmo Beverelli of the WTO, Madina Kukenova of the University of Lausenne, Nadia Rocha of the WTO. “ARE YOU EXPERIENCED? SURVIVAL AND RECOVERY OF TRADE RELATIONS AFTER BANKING CRISES”
https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd201103_e.pdf , 2011. DoA 7/22/19) JJ
In this section we shift focus to the effect of the size of export values and export experience before a banking crisis on the time to recover after the crisis. We also study the impact of sectoral financial dependence variables, and whether it depends on product characteristics In Table 7, all estimates are expressed in terms of hazard ratios. In this case, however, a spell begins with the product exiting at the occurrence of a banking crisis, and it ends when exporting starts again. An hazard ratio greater than one, which indicates a shorter duration, means that the export relation recovers faster. The size of exports at exit and export experience at exit are included in the regressions of column (1) and (2), respectively. Both experience and size are found to increase the probability of recovery. Specifically, one extra year of export experience increases the probability of recovery by almost 6 percent. A one percent increase in exports size increases the probability of recovery by about 3 percent. Results are qualitatively and quantitatively similar even after using a relative measure of size such as product share of exports (column (3) of Table 7). In column (4), both the size of exports and export experience, are contemporaneously included in the regression. Also in this case both variables decrease the time to recover. However, while the magnitude of the experience coefficient remains unchanged, the coefficient of size becomes slightly smaller.
Please Affirm. | 904,249 |
365,295 | 379,213 | Stanford UBI Blake PW Con | We negate.
First, the framework for the round. A common UBI would be a cash payment without restrictions and as
Amadeo 20 defines, at a minimum replace the
Amadeo 2020 (KIMBERLY AMADEO, president of WorldMoneyWatch, January 14, 2020 “US Welfare Programs, the Myths Versus the Facts: The 6 Major Welfare Programs” The Balance, https://www.thebalance.com/welfare-programs-definition-and-list-3305759
DOA: 1/29/20) HS
"six major U.S. welfare programs… and housing assistance."
With that,
C1) Destroying health coverage
Getting rid of Medicaid for the sake of UBI would be disastrous for 2 reasons:
1. Deprioritizing the ill
Dolan 19 (Ed Dolan, Senior Fellow at Niskanen Center, Yale Ph.D. Interests include environment, health care policy, social safety net, economic freedom. Sep 13 2019. “How Much Basic Income Can We Afford?” Medium. https://medium.com/basic-income/how-much-basic-income-can-we-afford-52cc8e9da65. DOA: Feb 5 2020) SRW
Healthcare. The next question …. giving them their basic income, too.
2. Raising the Cost
UBI won’t be enough money for health insurance 2
Dolan 19 (Ed Dolan, Senior Fellow at Niskanen Center, Yale Ph.D. Interests include environment, health care policy, social safety net, economic freedom. Sep 13 2019. “How Much Basic Income Can We Afford?” Medium. https://medium.com/basic-income/how-much-basic-income-can-we-afford-52cc8e9da65. DOA: Feb 5 2020) SRW
The next question is what …. $11,000 a year per person.
Which is why Dolan continues that a UBI is not
Dolan 19 (Ed Dolan, Senior Fellow at Niskanen Center, Yale Ph.D. Interests include environment, health care policy, social safety net, economic freedom. Sep 13 2019. “How Much Basic Income Can We Afford?” Medium. https://medium.com/basic-income/how-much-basic-income-can-we-afford-52cc8e9da65. DOA: Feb 5 2020) SRW
A grant large enough… for the young and healthy to forego insurance.
The impact is eliminating health benefits
Manatt Health 19 writes that with
(Manatt Health is an interdisciplinary policy and business advisory division of Manatt, Phelps and Phillips, LLP, one of the nation’s premier law and consulting firms, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Feb 1 2019, “Medicaid's Impact on Health Care Access, Outcomes and State Economies”, https://www.rwjf.org/en/library/research/2019/02/medicaid-s-impact-on-health-care-access-outcomes-and-state-economies.html // DOA: 1/25/20)JDE
“Even before Medicaid… 83.5 percent, respectively).”
And Broaddus 19 implicates that8
(Matt Broaddus, a Senior Research Analyst in the Health Division at CBPP. November 6 2019. “Medicaid Expansion Has Saved at Least 19,000 Lives, New Research Finds” CBPP. https://www.cbpp.org/research/health/medicaid-expansion-has-saved-at-least-19000-lives-new-research-finds. DOA: Jan 25 2020) SRW
The Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) … in non-expansion states.4
C2) Cutting the social safety net
Subpoint A is Children
Currently, welfare systems are targeted in a way to benefit 3 specific groups who need it the most
Hoynes and Rothstein 18 explain that9
(Hilary Hoynes, professor of Public Policy and Economics at UC Berkley. Jesse Rothstein, professor of Public Policy and Economics at UC Berkley, former Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Labor. August 15, 2018. “Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries,” https://gspp.berkeley.edu/assets/uploads/research/pdf/Hoynes-Rothstein-UBI-081518.pdf. DOA: 2/6/20) SRW
In Section IV, we discuss the… families with children).
Unfortunately, a UBI will gave money to single mothers and and
Hoynes and Rothstein 18 continue that10
(Hilary Hoynes, professor of Public Policy and Economics at UC Berkley. Jesse Rothstein, professor of Public Policy and Economics at UC Berkley, former Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Labor. August 15, 2018. “Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries,” https://gspp.berkeley.edu/assets/uploads/research/pdf/Hoynes-Rothstein-UBI-081518.pdf. DOA: 2/6/20) SRW
A UBI would substantially smooth… disabled, and families with children.
Distributing away from these families who are truly in need is extremely detrimental
Hoynes and Rothstein 2018 implicates that
(Hilary Hoynes, University of California Berkeley, Jesse Rothstein, University of California, Berkeley. August 15, 2018. “Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries” Berkley. https://gspp.berkeley.edu/assets/uploads/research/pdf/Hoynes-Rothstein-UBI-081518.pdf. DOA: 1/31/20) SRW
Universal programs are ineffective… to make the case for expansion.
And the CBPP 2016 quantifies
(CBPP, a progressive American think tank that analyzes the impact of federal and state government budget policies, 7-22-2016, “Nationwide, Safety Net Lifts Roughly 46 Million People Above Poverty Line and Provides Health Coverage to 43 Percent of Children” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. https://www.cbpp.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/7-22-16pov-factsheets-us.pdf DOA: February 8, 2020) SP
Federal and state safety net programs… don't receive it due to funding limitations.
Subpoint B is hurting non-citizens.
Currently, if an immigrant is a refuge or asylum seeker they automatically are eligible for MTW
Le and Nowrasteh 20
(Tu Le, has an MS in economics from Texas AandM University. Alex Nowrasteh, is the director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute’s Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity. January 14, 2020. “Immigrant and Native Consumption of Means??Tested Welfare and Entitlement Benefits in 2016: Evidence from the Survey of Income and Program Participation,” Cato Institute, https://www.cato.org/publications/immigration-research-policy-brief/immigrant-native-consumption-means-tested-welfare. DOA: 1/28/20) NK
Overall, immigrants consume about 21 percent… immigrants’ access to all of these programs.13
However, a UBI would not go to noncitizens
Miller 19 (John W. Miller, retired United States Navy Vice Admiral who last served as Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/Commander, U.S. Fifth Fleet. “Universal basic income is having a moment. Can advocates convince a skeptical public?,” 3/2/2019, American Magazine, https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2019/10/02/universal-basic-income-having-moment-can-advocates-convince-skeptical. DOA: 1/28/2020) DSE
U.B.I. could also flood… we make them citizens.”
This could be disastrous,
Camarota and Ziegler 18 find
(Steven Camarota and Karen Ziegler, Director of Research and Demographer for the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), 20 Nov 2018, “63 of Non-Citizen Households Access Welfare Programs”, https://cis.org/Report/63-NonCitizen-Households-Access-Welfare-Programs DOA 1/28/19)KJR
In 2014, 63 percent of… full welfare eligibility at birth.
There are many noncitizens in the US,
Nicholson 2017 finds
(Mike Nicholson, researcher at the Center for Migration Studies, previously an analyst for the Center for American Progress, has a BA from Penn. April 20, 2017. Center for American Progress. “The Facts on Immigration Today: 2017 Edition”, https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/reports/2017/04/20/430736/facts-immigration-today-2017-edition/ . DOA: January 29, 2020.) ALP
Foreign-born population …. immigrated to the country.13 | 904,255 |
365,296 | 379,188 | Blake OP Aff BRI Version 1 | We affirm
C1) south Asia
sub a) interconnectivity
Interconnectivity is necessary for the development of Afghanistan
Safi and Alizada 2018 (Mariam Safi, founding director of the Organization for Policy Research and Development Studies (DROPS), and Bismellah Alizada, writes for Global Voices and is deputy director at DROPS. August 2018. DROPS. “Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative”, http://www.dropsafghanistan.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Integrating-Afghanistan-into-the-Belt-and-Road-Initiative.pdf . DOA: September 3, 2019.) ALP
Afghanistan’s geographic position ...for us to develop and for us to open up and for us to even politically stabilize Afghanistan,”114 explained Andisha. But he admitted that these policies had not escaped criticism.
Once Europe joins the BRI, it has an incentive to invest in Afghanistan to build a trade route to South Asia
Safi and Alizada 2018 (Mariam Safi, founding director of the Organization for Policy Research and Development Studies (DROPS), and Bismellah Alizada, writes for Global Voices and is deputy director at DROPS. August 2018. DROPS. “Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative”, http://www.dropsafghanistan.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Integrating-Afghanistan-into-the-Belt-and-Road-Initiative.pdf . DOA: September 3, 2019.) ALP
Afghanistan can also give South Asia the shortest transit route to Central Asia, the Russian Federation ...Industrial demand for electricity is expected to skyrocket, turning the country into a favourite nearby market for Central Asia’s energy surplus.
BRI in Afghanistan can alleviate Afghan poverty as
Safi and Alizada 2018 explain (Mariam Safi, founding director of the Organization for Policy Research and Development Studies (DROPS), and Bismellah Alizada, writes for Global Voices and is deputy director at DROPS. August 2018. DROPS. “Integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative”, http://www.dropsafghanistan.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Integrating-Afghanistan-into-the-Belt-and-Road-Initiative.pdf . DOA: September 3, 2019.) ALP
In 2011, a new initiative, the New Silk Road (see chapter 9), was envisioned for Afghanistan ...invested stakeholders in realizing this renewed vision as a trade and transit hub.
50 of Afghanistan is poor
Jain 2018 finds(Nupam Jain, reporter for Reuters. May 7, 2018. Reuters. “Afghanistan's poverty rate rises as economy suffers”, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-economy/afghanistans-poverty-rate-rises-as-economy-suffers-idUSKBN1I818X . DOA: September 6, 2019.) ALP
KABUL (Reuters) - Afghanistan’s poverty rate has worsened sharply...Shubham Chaudhuri, World Bank director for Afghanistan, said in a commentary about the survey.
Subpoint b) CPEC
The current BRI model is failing in Pakistan as China can’t fund Pakistan’s projects anymore
Sharma 2018 explains (Mihir Sharma, Opinion columnist for Bloomberg, was a columnist for the Indian Standard. October 11, 2018. LiveMint. “Pakistan’s bailout exposes serious flaws in China’s BRI plan, https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/lAfcWmhwnJqqyd58cWI2dL/Opinion~-~-Pakistans-bailout-exposes-serious-flaws-in-China.html . DOA: September 6, 2019.) ALP
Pakistan’s problem isn’t only poor macroeconomic stewardship, however. It’s the deals the preceding administration struck with China. A few years ago, Chinese President Xi Jinping...an emergency $1 billion this summer when the country was staring once again at empty coffers.
Xi is attempting to recalibrate the BRI approach to encourage foreing companies to participate and fill in
Dasgupta 2019 finds (Saibal Dasgupta, China correspondent for the Times of India. April 26, 2019. VOA News. “Xi Signals Change in Belt and Road Initiative Amid Criticism”, https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/xi-signals-change-belt-and-road-initiative-amid-criticism . DOA: August 23, 2019.) ALP
Unlike his past speeches at the forum in 2017 and in several international gatherings, Xi did not lay out a global vision of what the Belt and Road plan can do to connect countries and continents. Instead, he concentrated on answering criticism... said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, professor at the Department of Government and International Studies at Hong Kong Baptist University.
An EU partnership with CPEC would economically make sense and would usher in trade
Garrie 2019 (Adam Garrie, director of a UK-based global policy and analysis think tank called Eurasia Future. January 5, 2019. CPECInfo. “CPEC's link to Europe”, http://www.cpecinfo.com/news/cpec-link-to-europe/NzAzNQ== . DOA: September 5, 2019.) ALP
But CPEC is about far more than China-Pakistan connectivity. China and Pakistan's all-weather friendship forms the foundation of a project that is multilateral in its overall aim. Taken in a wider sense, CPEC forms the central core of what can be described as a major trading crescent which runs ...As the 17+1 format continues to pursue new means of expanding trade, including in development more BRI ports on the Mediterranean, Gwadar can serve as the primary port linking new and expanded BRI ports in Europe to China.
China is the only actor that could stop the war in Afghanistan through CPEC leverage over Pakistan
Stanzel 2018 finds (Angela Stanzel, Senior Policy Fellow for the ECFR’s Asia and China Programme, and the editor of China Analysis. July 12, 2018. ECFR. “Fear and loathing on the New Silk Road: Chinese security in Afghanistan and beyond”, https://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/new_silk_road_chinese_security_in_afghanistan_beyond# . DOA: August 27, 2019.) ALP
Moscow too has shown a renewed interest in Afghanistan – an interest seemingly triggered by the emergence of ISIS there. (Moscow may also view Washington’s struggle to maintain security in Afghanistan following the NATO withdrawal as an opportunity to compete for influence in the country.) ...In stark contrast to the Trump administration, Chinese leaders seem to believe that pressuring Pakistan would be counterproductive.
300 people died in Afghanistan war last week
Faizi in September 2019 explains (Fatima Faizi, journalist in the New York Times based in Kabul. September 5, 2019. The New York Times. “Afghan War Casualty Report: September 2019”, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/05/magazine/afghan-war-casualty-report.html?rref=collection/timestopic/Afghanistanandaction=clickandcontentCollection=worldandregion=streamandmodule=stream_unitandversion=latestandcontentPlacement=1andpgtype=collection . DOA: September 6, 2019.) ALP
At least 179 pro-government forces and 110 civilians were killed... The insurgents, however, were unable to capture the district. Earlier in the week, another 20 Afghan security forces were killed in Kunduz City for the third time in four years.
CPEC will lead to economic development
Ali and Malik 18 explain (Imran Malik, Associate Professor of Finance, IQRA University, Islamabad Campus, 28 January 2018, “Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth of Pakistan” https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3104717, DOA 7/9/19) MDS
Success rate of CPEC project is dependent on security establishment, which is prerequisite of economic stability… Since then there is a sharp decline in FDI inflows and it was reported 1.16 in 2010 and 0.67 in 2014 (UNCTAD 2016).
‘
Economic development from BRI could stem terror in Central Asia
The Economic Times 2019 (The Economic Times, the world’s second largest English language business newspaper. April 26, 2019. The Economic Times. “Development through BRI can be a major blow to extremist terror in Pakistan, Afghanistan: Iran FM Zarif”, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/development-through-bri-can-be-a-major-blow-to-extremist-terror-in-pakistan-afghanistan-iran-fm-zarif/articleshow/69055361.cms . DOA: August 27, 2019.) ALP
NEW YORK: Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said projects under China's Belt and Road Initiative can help bring economic development to areas in its region and also deal a major blow to “extremist terror” in Pakistan and Afghanistan…. “We connect the Sea of Oman through the Chabahar Port, which has up till now been exempted from US sanctions, to Europe - both St Petersburg as well as the Black Sea. This is a strategic transit corridor,” he said. Zarif further explained that there are other transit corridors connecting the East and West.
Stopping terror is critical as it could spark Indo-Pakistani war
Perkovich and Dalton 2019 (George Perkovich is the vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace while Toby Dalton is co-director of the think-tank’s Nuclear Policy Program, “Is a Pakistan-India war just one terrorist attack away?”, Dawn Herald, March 1st 2019, https://herald.dawn.com/news/1153648. DOA: April 12th 2019) TG
At the risk of inviting further charges of bias for attempting balanced analysis, we are concerned that the continued violence across the LoC, ...But the continued political and civil-military gamesmanship has drowned out the few voices raising alarms about the absence of an alternative national security vision for the country.
Keck, 2019 explains how the escalation would happen finding (Zachary Keck is the Wohlstetter Public Affairs Fellow at the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. Before that, he was a researcher at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Previously, he was the managing editor of The National Interest. Keck has also been the managing editor of The Diplomat. February 15th, 2019. “Billions Dead: That's What Could Happen if India and Pakistan Wage a Nuclear War.” The National Interest. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/billions-dead-thats-what-could-happen-if-india-and-pakistan-wage-nuclear-war-44682 DOA 03/13/19) GSH
Much of the panel’s discussion was focused on technological changes that might exacerbate this already-combustible situation. Narang took the lead in describing how India was acquiring the capabilities to pursue counterforce strikes ...tactical nuclear weapons against the Indian troops inside Pakistan.
A nuclear war would be devastating
Roblin 2019 (Sebastien Roblin, Master’s Degree in Conflict Resolution from Georgetown University and served as a university instructor for the Peace Corps in China. He has also worked in education, editing, and refugee resettlement in France and the United States. March 9, 2019. “Why a So-Called "Limited" Nuclear War Between India and Pakistan Would Devastate the Planet.”National Interest. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-so-called-limited-nuclear-war-between-india-and-pakistan-would-devastate-planet-46532. 4/26/19)AO
The Little Boy bomb alone killed around 100,000 Japanese—between 30 to 40 percent of Hiroshima’s population—and destroyed 69 percent of the buildings in the city. But Pakistan and India host some of the most populous and densely populated cities on the planet... For instance, a firestorm caused by the U.S. napalm bombing of Tokyo in March 1945 killed more people than the Fat Man bomb killed in Nagasaki | 904,230 |
365,297 | 379,200 | Blake OP Neg UBI Version 1 | Medicaid is a means-tested program
NCSL explains No Date (The National Conference of State Legislatures, founded in 1975, represents the legislatures in the states, territories and commonwealths of the U.S. Its mission is to advance the effectiveness, independence and integrity of legislatures and to foster interstate cooperation and facilitate the exchange of information among legislatures. No Date. “Medicaid and CHIP,” NCSL, https://www.ncsl.org/research/health/medicaid-and-chip.aspx. DOA 1/24/20) WD
Enacted in 1965 ... under the program.
Medicaid is key to increase coverage and economic mobility
Manatt Health 19 (Manatt Health is an interdisciplinary policy and business advisory division of Manatt, Phelps and Phillips, LLP, one of the nation’s premier law and consulting firms, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Feb 1 2019, “Medicaid's Impact on Health Care Access, Outcomes and State Economies”, https://www.rwjf.org/en/library/research/2019/02/medicaid-s-impact-on-health-care-access-outcomes-and-state-economies.html // DOA: 1/25/20)JDE
“Medicaid produces economic ... paid as adults.
Medicaid keeps people out of poverty
Wagnerman 18 finds(Karina Wagnerman, a Senior Health Policy Analyst at the Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy's Center for Children and Families (CCF). March 8 2018. “Research Update: Medicaid Pulls Americans Out Of Poverty, Updated Edition” GUHPI. https://ccf.georgetown.edu/2018/03/08/research-update-medicaid-pulls-americans-out-of-poverty-updated-edition/. DOA: Jan 25 2020) SRW
Results from this study ... increase after the ACA.
Medicaid provides life saving health care
Broaddus 19 (Matt Broaddus, a Senior Research Analyst in the Health Division at CBPP. November 6 2019. “Medicaid Expansion Has Saved at Least 19,000 Lives, New Research Finds” CBPP. https://www.cbpp.org/research/health/medicaid-expansion-has-saved-at-least-19000-lives-new-research-finds. DOA: Jan 25 2020) SRW
The Affordable Care ... in non-expansion states.4
EITC or the earned income tax credit is means tested
Camarota and Ziegler 18(Steven Camarota and Karen Ziegler, Director of Research and Demographer for the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), 20 Nov 2018, “63 of Non-Citizen Households Access Welfare Programs”, https://cis.org/Report/63-NonCitizen-Households-Access-Welfare-Programs DOA 1/28/19)KJR
In 2014, 63 percent ... eligibility at birth.
EITC increases wages and decreases poverty
CBPP 19 (Policy Basics: The Earned Income Tax Credit, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, DOA 1/7/20, December 10, 2019 https://www.cbpp.org/earned-income-tax-credit-and-child-tax-credit-have-powerful-antipoverty-impact-7) MP
The amount of ... market is strong.
EITC lifts people out of poverty
CBPP 19 (Policy Basics: The Earned Income Tax Credit, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, DOA 1/7/20, December 10, 2019 https://www.cbpp.org/earned-income-tax-credit-and-child-tax-credit-have-powerful-antipoverty-impact-7) MP
In 2018, the ... college attendance rates.
SNAP is a means-tested program that helps poor households that need food
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 2019 (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a nonpartisan research and policy institute. Update 7 November 2019. “Chart Book: SNAP Helps Struggling Families Put Food on the Table,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/chart-book-snap-helps-struggling-families-put-food-on-the-table. DOA 1/14/20) WD
SNAP reaches millions ...Lower Health Care Costs.”
SNAP important for food aid to children
Lau 2013(Peiley Lau, Ph.D. student in Agricultural and Resource Economics at UC Berkeley and a recipient of the UC Berkeley Chancellor's Fellowship .November 27, 2013. “SNAP: An Investment in Our Children,” Oakland Institute. https://www.oaklandinstitute.org/blog/snap-investment-our-children. DOA: 2/6/20)AO
This issue is ... children across America.
UBI decreases the welfare to people who need it most
Hoynes and Rothstein 18 (Hilary Hoynes, professor of Public Policy and Economics at UC Berkley. Jesse Rothstein, professor of Public Policy and Economics at UC Berkley, former Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Labor. August 15, 2018. “Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries,” https://gspp.berkeley.edu/assets/uploads/research/pdf/Hoynes-Rothstein-UBI-081518.pdf. DOA: 1/8/20) NK
In Section IV, ... and families with children).
People often must choose between necessities
Lau 2013 furthers that (Peiley Lau, Ph.D. student in Agricultural and Resource Economics at UC Berkeley and a recipient of the UC Berkeley Chancellor's Fellowship .November 27, 2013. “SNAP: An Investment in Our Children,” Oakland Institute. https://www.oaklandinstitute.org/blog/snap-investment-our-children. DOA: 2/6/20)AO
As families across ...food insecure household.
If an immigrant is a refuge or asylum seeker they automatically are eligible for MTW
Le and Nowrasteh 20 (Tu Le, has an MS in economics from Texas AandM University. Alex Nowrasteh, is the director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute’s Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity. January 14, 2020. “Immigrant and Native Consumption of Means??Tested Welfare and Entitlement Benefits in 2016: Evidence from the Survey of Income and Program Participation,” Cato Institute, https://www.cato.org/publications/immigration-research-policy-brief/immigrant-native-consumption-means-tested-welfare. DOA: 1/28/20) NK
Overall, immigrants consume ... all of these programs.13
UBI would not go to noncitizens
Miller 19 (John W. Miller, retired United States Navy Vice Admiral who last served as Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/Commander, U.S. Fifth Fleet. “Universal basic income is having a moment. Can advocates convince a skeptical public?,” 3/2/2019, American Magazine, https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2019/10/02/universal-basic-income-having-moment-can-advocates-convince-skeptical. DOA: 1/28/2020) DSE
U.B.I. could also ... we make them citizens.”
63 use a welfare program
Camarota and Ziegler 18 find (Steven Camarota and Karen Ziegler, Director of Research and Demographer for the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), 20 Nov 2018, “63 of Non-Citizen Households Access Welfare Programs”, https://cis.org/Report/63-NonCitizen-Households-Access-Welfare-Programs DOA 1/28/19)KJR
In 2014, 63 ...welfare eligibility at birth.
There are many noncitizens in the US,
Nicholson 2017 finds (Mike Nicholson, researcher at the Center for Migration Studies, previously an analyst for the Center for American Progress, has a BA from Penn. April 20, 2017. Center for American Progress. “The Facts on Immigration Today: 2017 Edition”, https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/reports/2017/04/20/430736/facts-immigration-today-2017-edition/ . DOA: January 29, 2020.) ALP
Foreign-born population ...immigrated to the country.13 | 904,242 |
365,298 | 379,266 | HS M4A Aff 20 | With that, Graham and I affirm, first an observation. The harms to drug innovation in a world with Medicare for all are overstated. This is for two reasons. First, drug prices are elastic.
Gorman 14 (Linda Gorman, Her work has appeared in peer reviewed journals, the Library of Economics and Liberty, and a variety of newspapers and online outlets. She was a member of Colorado's Blue Ribbon Commission for Healthcare Reform and a co-author of one of the Commission's minority reports. Her Ph. D. is in economic. July 2014, “Patient Expiration and Pharmaceutical Prices” NBER https://www.nber.org/digest/sep14/w20016.html, July 18th 2020) TCS
When a drug's ...was 46 percent.
Secondly, reduced profits for drug companies has a minimal effect on investment in research
Kantarjian and Ho 16 (Hagop Kantarjian and Vivian Ho, Chair of the Department of Leukemia at The University of Texas, Director of the Center for Health and Biosciences at Rice University’s Baker Institute, respectively. December 12, 2016. “The Harm of High Drug Prices,” US news.com, https://www.usnews.com/opinion/policy-dose/articles/2016-12-12/the-harm-of-high-drug-prices-to-americans-a-continuing-saga DOA October 20, 2018) GH
The drug industry ...if drug prices fall.
With that, our Sole Contention is Access
The status quo is bleak for healthcare in America
Galvani et. al 2020 (Alison Galvani, Alyssa Parpia, Eric Foster, Burton Singer, Megan Fitzpatrick, PHD, MPH, center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, PHD, PHD, respectively. Published February 15 2020. “Improving the prognosis of health care in the USA,” The Lancet, thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)33019-3/fulltext#20. DOA June 26 2020) GKH
Although health care... the status quo
This has negative effects on patients
Garfield et al 19 (Rachel Garfield, Vice President at the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Co-Director for its Program on Medicaid 20 years of experience in Medicaid policy research and is an expert in data analysis on insurance coverage and access to care for the low-income population BA from Harvard College, holds an M.H.S. in health policy from the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, and received her PhD in health policy from Harvard University, Kendal Orgera, Anthony Damico, January 25th 2019, “The Uninsured and the ACA: A Primer - Key Facts about Health Insurance and the Uninsured amidst Changes to the Affordable Care Act” Kaiser Family Foundation, https://www.kff.org/report-section/the-uninsured-and-the-aca-a-primer-key-facts-about-health-insurance-and-the-uninsured-amidst-changes-to-the-affordable-care-act-how-does-lack-of-insurance-affect-access-to-care/, June 27th 2020) TCS
Health insurance makes ...of care (Figure 8).3
Even doctors are ready for a change
Paris 18 (Carol Paris, doctor and the most recent president of Physicians for a National Health Program. Published 9-11-2018. "Medicare for All and the Myth of the 40 Physician Pay Cut," PNHP, https://pnhp.org/news/medicare-for-all-and-the-myth-of-the-40-physician-pay-cut/. DOA 7-7-2020) GKH
The surge in support... exhaustion and burnout
Critically, Countries with single payer systems do not see worse wait times compared to US
Waldrop 19 (Thomas Waldrop, Center for American Progress, “The Truth on Wait Times in Universal Coverage Systems” October 18, 2019, https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/healthcare/reports/2019/10/18/475908/truth-wait-times-universal-coverage-systems/) SJ
Data from other ...of German patients
Medicare for All is the solution to the problem
As the Sanders 19 Medicare for all act explains (Bernie Sanders, Brooklyn College for a year in 1959–1960 before transferring to the University of Chicago and graduating with a bachelor of arts degree in political science in 1964., Introduced in Senate April 10th 2019, “S.1129” Congress of the United States, https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/1129/text#toc-id566950cc2a0940208776df06c3d86ded, June 27th 2020) TCS
SEC. 101. ESTABLISHMENT ...under this Act.
The standard would be high for patients
Kliff and Scott 19 (Sarah Cliff, leading health policy journalists, seven years chronicling Washington’s battle over the Affordable Care Act writer for Vox and The Washington Post, Dylan Scott, Healthcare Expert in Cleveland. June 21st 2020. “We read 9 Democratic plans for expanding health care. Here’s how they work” Vox News, https://www.vox.com/2018/12/13/18103087/medicare-for-all-explained-single-payer-health-care-sanders-jayapal) TCS
Even Medicare, as...likely draw controversy.
Hospitals are also better off with Medicare for all
Cai and Khan 19 (Christopher Cai, medical student at the University of California, San Francisco, James Khan, emeritus professor at the Philip R. Lee Institute for Health Policy Studies at the University of California, San Francisco. Published 12-9-2019. “Medicare For All Would Improve Hospital Financing,” Health Affairs, https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20191205.239679/full/. DOA 6-29-2020) GKH
Medicare For All ...upgrades or expansion.
Even with global budgeting, the system would still be cheaper
The Cai et al 20 meta analysis (Christopher Cai, UCSF School of Medicine, University of California, Data curation, Formal analysis, Writing for PLOS Medicine, Jackson Runte, Isabel Ostrer, Kacey Berry, Ninez Ponce, Michael Rodriguez, Stefano Bertozzi, Justin S. White, James G. Kahn. January 15th 2020, “Projected costs of single-payer healthcare financing in the United States: A systematic review of economic analyses” PLOS Medicine, https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003013, June 26th 2020) TCS
Projected Costs and ...rate of growth.
There are 3 impacts
The first is saving lives
Galvani et. al 2020 (Alison Galvani, Alyssa Parpia, Eric Foster, Burton Singer, Megan Fitzpatrick, PHD, MPH, center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, PHD, PHD, respectively. Published February 15 2020. “Improving the prognosis of health care in the USA,” The Lancet, thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)33019-3/fulltext#20. DOA June 26 2020) GKH
Although health care ...the status quo.
The second is Opioids
The US has the drugs to help opioid addicts but not the healthcare system to do so
Corcoran 18 (Michael Corcoran, journalist based in Boston. He has written for The Boston Globe, The Nation, The Christian Science Monitor, Extra, NACLA Report on the Americas and other publications. Published 10-25-2018. "Why a National Health System Is Needed to Slow the Opioid Crisis," PNHP, https://pnhp.org/news/why-a-national-health-system-is-needed-to-slow-the-opioid-crisis/. DOA 7-12-2020) GKH
Why Medication-Assisted... Trigg said.
National Institute on Drug Abuse 2020 (National Institute on Drug Abuse, United States federal-government research institute whose mission is to "advance science on the causes and consequences of drug use and addiction and to apply that knowledge to improve individual and public health. March 10, 2020. “Overdose Death Rates,” National Institute on Drug Abuse. https://www.drugabuse.gov/drug-topics/trends-statistics/overdose-death-rates. DOA: 7/12/20) AO
Figure 3. National Drug... (Source: CDC WONDER).
The third is immigrants,
Samra et al 19 (Shamsher Samra, Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, Department of Emergency Medicine, Torrance, California, MD, MPhil, corresponding author, Breena R. Taira, MD, MPH, Erika Pinheiro, JD, MPP, Rebecca Trotzky-Sirr, MD, MS, Eng, and Todd Schneberk, MD, MSHPM, MA. July 1st 2019. “Undocumented Patients in the Emergency Department: Challenges and Opportunities” US National Institute of Medicine, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6754205/, July 19th 2020) GKH
The case of ...in poverty.3
Unfortunately Artiga et al 19 continues that (Samantha Artiga, Director of the Disparities Policy Project, Associate Director for the KFF’s Program on Medicaid and the Uninsured, Maria Diaz, Policy Analyst for the Program on Medicaid and the Uninsured and its State Health Facts Team. 7/15/2019, “Health Coverage and Care of Undocumented Immigrants”, The KFF, hwww.kff.org/disparities-policy/issue-brief/health-coverage-and-care-of-undocumented-immigrants/ 7/13/2020. SAP
Undocumented immigrants are ..expensive to treat
The struggles of undocumented people aren’t limited to healthcare alone
Samra et al 19 (Shamsher Samra, Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, Department of Emergency Medicine, Torrance, California, MD, MPhil, corresponding author, Breena R. Taira, MD, MPH, Erika Pinheiro, JD, MPP, Rebecca Trotzky-Sirr, MD, MS, Eng, and Todd Schneberk, MD, MSHPM, MA. July 1st 2019. “Undocumented Patients in the Emergency Department: Challenges and Opportunities” US National Institute of Medicine, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6754205/, July 19th 2020) GKH
The case of Ms...live in poverty.3
Fortuantely, Medicare for all provides Healthcare insurance and coverage to everyone in the US, including undocumented immigrants. Insurance has major positive effects as
Wilper et al 2009 (Andrew Wilper, Associate Professor Medicine Associate Chief of Staff, Boise VA Medical Center, MD University of Washington, School of Medicine Seattle, Internship and Residency in Internal Medicine, Primary Care Track Oregon Health Science University Portland, MPH Harvard University, School of Public Health Boston, Graduated Summa Cum Laude from University of Idaho Phi Beta Kappa Alpha Omega Alpha American College of Physicians, Idaho Chapter Outstanding Student in Internal Medicine Fellow, American College of Physicians, MD, MPH, Steffie Woolhandler, MD, MPH, Karen E. Lasser, MD, MPH, Danny McCormick, MD, MPH, David H. Bor, MD, and David U. Himmelstein, MD. December 2009, “Health Insurance and Morality in US adults” US National Libarary of Medicine, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2775760/ July 19th 2020) TCS
Objectives. A 1993 ...since that time.
For all these reasons, we affirm. | 904,318 |
365,299 | 379,255 | Con | 6 MTW programs
Amadeo 2020 (KIMBERLY AMADEO, president of WorldMoneyWatch, January 14, 2020 “US Welfare Programs, the Myths Versus the Facts: The 6 Major Welfare Programs” The Balance, https://www.thebalance.com/welfare-programs-definition-and-list-3305759
DOA: 1/29/20) HS
“Welfare programs are...administering the program. “
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program is a vital program
CBPP 2018 (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a nonpartisan research and policy institute. Update 7 November 2019. “Chart Book: SNAP Helps Struggling Families Put Food on the Table,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/chart-book-snap-helps-struggling-families-put-food-on-the-table. DOA 1/14/20) WD
“SNAP reaches millions ...Health Care Costs.”
SNAP decreases food insecurity
CBPP 2018 (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a nonpartisan research and policy institute. Update 7 November 2019. “Chart Book: SNAP Helps Struggling Families Put Food on the Table,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/chart-book-snap-helps-struggling-families-put-food-on-the-table. DOA 1/14/20) WD
“SNAP also lifts millions... government assistance program.”
Fresh food incentive
Farmers Market Coalition explains that (Farmers Market Coalition, The Farmers Market Coalition is nonprofit dedicated to strengthening farmers markets across the United States while providing real income opportunities for farmers, Farmers Market Coalition, No date, “Food Insecurity Nutrition Incentive Program”, https://farmersmarketcoalition.org/advocacy/fini/ // DOA: 1/31/20)JDE
“The Food Insecurity Nutrition... hiring more workers.”
FINI increases access to healthy food for low-income individuals
Vericker et al 19 (Prepared by Westat, Inc. for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, USDA, May 2019 “The Evaluation of Food Insecurity Nutrition Incentives (FINI) Interim Report”, https://fns-prod.azureedge.net/sites/default/files/resource-files/FINI-InterimReport_1.pdf // DOA: 1/31/20)JDE
“Results indicated that...detectable impact findings. “
Poor diet is the leading cause of mortality in the US
Mozaffarian 2019 (Aug. 26, 2019, Dariush Mozaffarian, dean of the Tufts Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy and Dan Glickman, the secretary of agriculture from 1995 to 2001 “Our Food Is Killing Too Many of Us” The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/26/opinion/food-nutrition-health-care.html DOA: 2/5/20) HS
“Instead of debating...gross domestic product”
FINI has increased fresh fruits and vegetable sales
Fitzgerald 2015 (2015 Kate Fitzgerald, consultant on sustainable food system policy on the federal, state and local level, fitzgerald Canepa, LLC, “Food Insecurity Nutrition Incentive Grant Program (FINI) 2015 Grocery, Corner Store, Food Hub and Delivery Route Results” https://fairfoodnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/FINI-Project-Grocery-Report_digital-2.pdf DOA: 2/5/20) HS
“Initial results of...vital to success.”
FINI increase economic mobility of farmers
Farmers Market Coalition explains (Farmers Market Coalition, The Farmers Market Coalition is nonprofit dedicated to strengthening farmers markets across the United States while providing real income opportunities for farmers, Farmers Market Coalition, No date, “Food Insecurity Nutrition Incentive Program”, https://farmersmarketcoalition.org/advocacy/fini/ // DOA: 1/31/20)JDE
“The Food Insecurity... hiring more workers.”
Agriculture drives US economic growth
Global Harvest Initiative 2018 (January 9th, 2018, Global Harvest Initiative, GHI is a private-sector voice for productivity growth throughout the agricultural value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a world,“American Agriculture Drives Economic Growth” https://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/2018/01/american-agriculture-drives-economic-growth/ DOA: 2/5/20) HS
“Advances in technology... positive trade balance.”
MTW programs would also remove Medicaid
NCSL (The National Conference of State Legislatures, founded in 1975, represents the legislatures in the states, territories and commonwealths of the U.S. Its mission is to advance the effectiveness, independence and integrity of legislatures and to foster interstate cooperation and facilitate the exchange of information among legislatures. No Date. “Medicaid and CHIP,” NCSL, https://www.ncsl.org/research/health/medicaid-and-chip.aspx. DOA 1/24/20) WD
“Enacted in 1965...under the program.”
Deprioritizing the impoverished
CMCS (Center for Medicaid and CHIP Services, one of six Centers within the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) , an agency of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) . No Date. “Eligibility,” Medicaid.gov, https://www.medicaid.gov/medicaid/eligibility/index.html. DOA 1/24/20) WD
“To participate in... or resource test"
UBI less targeted
Hoynes 2018 (Hilary Hoynes, professor of Public Policy and Economics at UC Berkley. Jesse Rothstein, professor of Public Policy and Economics at UC Berkley, former Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Labor. August 15, 2018. “Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries,” https://gspp.berkeley.edu/assets/uploads/research/pdf/Hoynes-Rothstein-UBI-081518.pdf. DOA: 1/8/20) NK
“In Section IV...families with children.”
Most proposed plans of UBI don’t come close to being able to cover healthcare
Dolan 19 (Ed Dolan, Senior Fellow at Niskanen Center, Yale Ph.D. Interests include environment, health care policy, social safety net, economic freedom. Sep 13 2019. “How Much Basic Income Can We Afford?” Medium. https://medium.com/basic-income/how-much-basic-income-can-we-afford-52cc8e9da65. DOA: Feb 5 2020) SRW
“The next question... to forego insurance.”
Scutti 17 (Susan Scutti, contributor for CNN, CNN, Jul 13 2017, Medicaid affects millions of Americans, young and old”, https://www.cnn.com/2017/07/13/health/medicaid-explainer-bn/index.html // DOA: 1/25/20)JDE
“Your tax dollars...by federal dollars.”
Eliminating health benefits
Manatt Health 19 (Manatt Health is an interdisciplinary policy and business advisory division of Manatt, Phelps and Phillips, LLP, one of the nation’s premier law and consulting firms, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Feb 1 2019, “Medicaid's Impact on Health Care Access, Outcomes and State Economies”, https://www.rwjf.org/en/library/research/2019/02/medicaid-s-impact-on-health-care-access-outcomes-and-state-economies.html // DOA: 1/25/20)JDE
“Even before Medicaid ...83.5 percent, respectively).”
Expand Medicaid saves lives
Broaddus 19 (Matt Broaddus, a Senior Research Analyst in the Health Division at CBPP. November 6 2019. “Medicaid Expansion Has Saved at Least 19,000 Lives, New Research Finds” CBPP. https://www.cbpp.org/research/health/medicaid-expansion-has-saved-at-least-19000-lives-new-research-finds. DOA: Jan 25 2020) SRW
“The Affordable Care... in non-expansion states”
Throwing people into poverty
Wagnerman 18 (Karina Wagnerman, a Senior Health Policy Analyst at the Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy's Center for Children and Families (CCF). March 8 2018. “Research Update: Medicaid Pulls Americans Out Of Poverty, Updated Edition” GUHPI. https://ccf.georgetown.edu/2018/03/08/research-update-medicaid-pulls-americans-out-of-poverty-updated-edition/. DOA: Jan 25 2020) SRW
“January 12, 2018...What It Finds”
In estimating the impact of eliminating Medicaid,
Wagnerman 18 (Karina Wagnerman, a Senior Health Policy Analyst at the Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy's Center for Children and Families (CCF). March 8 2018. “Research Update: Medicaid Pulls Americans Out Of Poverty, Updated Edition” GUHPI. https://ccf.georgetown.edu/2018/03/08/research-update-medicaid-pulls-americans-out-of-poverty-updated-edition/. DOA: Jan 25 2020) SRW
“Results from this... after the ACA.”
UBI system would replace good programs while not replacing the benefits.
Hoynes and Rothstein 18 (Hilary Hoynes, University of California Berkeley, Jesse Rothstein, University of California, Berkeley. August 15, 2018. “Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries” Berkley. https://gspp.berkeley.edu/assets/uploads/research/pdf/Hoynes-Rothstein-UBI-081518.pdf. DOA: 1/31/20) SRW
“In Section IV...families with children.” | 904,307 |
Subsets and Splits