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System Consortium
The following individuals served as peer
reviewers:
John Church, Centre for Australian Weather and
Climate Research and Antarctic Climate and
Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre
Douglas Gregory, Florida Sea Grant Extension
Agent
Jonathan Gregory, Professor, Department of
Meteorology, University of Reading and
Met Office Fellow in Climate Change
Joy Hazell, Florida Sea Grant Extension Agent
Ben Kirtman, Professor, Rosenstiel School of
Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami
Frank Marks, Director, Hurricane Research Division, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, National Atmospheric
and Oceanic Administration
George A. Maul, Professor and Department
Head, Marine and Environmental Systems,
Florida Institute of Technology
Maia McGuire, Florida Sea Grant Extension
Agent
Vasu Misra, Assistant Professor, Department
of Meteorology and Center for OceanAtmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida
State University
Mike Spranger, Associate Director, Florida
Sea Grant Program
David Zierden, Florida State Climatologist,
Center for OceanAtmospheric Prediction
Studies, Florida State University
Coordinated by Becky Prado, Office of Coastal and Aquatic
Managed Areas, Florida Department of Environmental Protection. Editorial assistance was provided by Linda Lord, Bureau of
Watershed Management, Florida Department of Environmental
Protection. Graphic design was provided by Rebecca
Eisman, Creative Endeavors.
v
vi
Executive Summary
WHY THI S R E POR T WAS
WR I T T EN
The Florida Oceans and Coastal Council prepared this report to provide a foundation for
future discussions of the effects of global climate
change on Florida’s ocean and coastal
resources, and to inform Floridians about the
current state of scientific knowledge regarding
climate change and how it is likely to affect
Florida. It provides important information for legislators, policymakers, governmental agencies,
a n d memb e rs o f t h e p u b l i c wh o a r e
working to address, or who are interested in,
issues related to climate change in Florida. The
Council anticipates that the report will be
updated periodically, and has recommended
a number of research priorities for ocean and
coastal research to improve levels of certainty
about how climate change will affect Florida.
GLOBAL CL I M AT E CHAN GE
AND F LOR IDA
Global climate change is a reality. The
scientific consensus presented in the 2007
report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change is that warming of
the Earth’s climate system is unequivocally
taking place (1). The report also concludes that
most of the temperature increase since the mid20th century is very likely caused by increased
concentrations of greenhouse gases from
human activities. These gases, which include
carbon dioxide, are produced naturally and
are also generated by human activities such as
burning fossil fuels and widespread deforestation.
The question for Floridians is not whether they
will be affected by global warming, but how
much—that is, to what degree it will continue,
how rapidly, what other climate changes will
accompany the warming, and what the longterm effects of these changes will be. Florida is
particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate
change. It has over 1,200 miles of coastline,
almost 4,500 square miles of estuaries and bays,
more than 6,700 square miles of other coastal
waters, and lowlying topography. In addition,
most of its 18 million residents live within 60
miles of the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico.
Its diverse, productive coastal and marine
ecosystems provide food and other products,
valuable and irreplaceable ecological functions, and aesthetic and recreational opportunities. The state’s lifesupport system, economy,
and quality of life depend on preserving and
sustaining these resources over the long term.
The four major aspects of climate change
addressed in this document are increasing
greenhouse gases, increasing air temperature and water vapor, increasing ocean
temperature, and increasing sea level. In this
report they are called “drivers,” and for each
driver the effects on Florida’s ocean and
coastal resources are described in terms of
vii
what is known, what is probable, and what is
possible. “Probable” means that an effect is
highly likely to occur in the future, while “possible” means that it may occur, but that predicted
impacts must be carefully qualified to reflect the
level of certainty.
Currently, none of the predicted effects is
expected to benefit Florida’s natural resources

System Consortium

The following individuals served as peer

reviewers:

John Church, Centre for Australian Weather and

Climate Research and Antarctic Climate and

Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre

Douglas Gregory, Florida Sea Grant Extension

Agent

Jonathan Gregory, Professor, Department of

Meteorology, University of Reading and

Met Office Fellow in Climate Change

Joy Hazell, Florida Sea Grant Extension Agent

Ben Kirtman, Professor, Rosenstiel School of

Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami

Frank Marks, Director, Hurricane Research Division, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, National Atmospheric

and Oceanic Administration

George A. Maul, Professor and Department

Head, Marine and Environmental Systems,

Florida Institute of Technology

Maia McGuire, Florida Sea Grant Extension

Agent

Vasu Misra, Assistant Professor, Department

of Meteorology and Center for OceanAtmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida

State University

Mike Spranger, Associate Director, Florida

Sea Grant Program

David Zierden, Florida State Climatologist,

Center for OceanAtmospheric Prediction

Studies, Florida State University

Coordinated by Becky Prado, Office of Coastal and Aquatic

Managed Areas, Florida Department of Environmental Protection. Editorial assistance was provided by Linda Lord, Bureau of

Watershed Management, Florida Department of Environmental

Protection. Graphic design was provided by Rebecca

Eisman, Creative Endeavors.

v

vi

Executive Summary

WHY THI S R E POR T WAS

WR I T T EN

The Florida Oceans and Coastal Council prepared this report to provide a foundation for

future discussions of the effects of global climate

change on Florida’s ocean and coastal

resources, and to inform Floridians about the

current state of scientific knowledge regarding

climate change and how it is likely to affect

Florida. It provides important information for legislators, policymakers, governmental agencies,

a n d memb e rs o f t h e p u b l i c wh o a r e

working to address, or who are interested in,

issues related to climate change in Florida. The

Council anticipates that the report will be

updated periodically, and has recommended

a number of research priorities for ocean and

coastal research to improve levels of certainty

about how climate change will affect Florida.

GLOBAL CL I M AT E CHAN GE

AND F LOR IDA

Global climate change is a reality. The

scientific consensus presented in the 2007

report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change is that warming of

the Earth’s climate system is unequivocally

taking place (1). The report also concludes that

most of the temperature increase since the mid20th century is very likely caused by increased

concentrations of greenhouse gases from

human activities. These gases, which include

carbon dioxide, are produced naturally and

are also generated by human activities such as

burning fossil fuels and widespread deforestation.

The question for Floridians is not whether they

will be affected by global warming, but how

much—that is, to what degree it will continue,

how rapidly, what other climate changes will

accompany the warming, and what the longterm effects of these changes will be. Florida is

particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate

change. It has over 1,200 miles of coastline,

almost 4,500 square miles of estuaries and bays,

more than 6,700 square miles of other coastal

waters, and lowlying topography. In addition,

most of its 18 million residents live within 60

miles of the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico.

Its diverse, productive coastal and marine

ecosystems provide food and other products,

valuable and irreplaceable ecological functions, and aesthetic and recreational opportunities. The state’s lifesupport system, economy,

and quality of life depend on preserving and

sustaining these resources over the long term.

The four major aspects of climate change

addressed in this document are increasing

greenhouse gases, increasing air temperature and water vapor, increasing ocean

temperature, and increasing sea level. In this

report they are called “drivers,” and for each

driver the effects on Florida’s ocean and

coastal resources are described in terms of

vii

what is known, what is probable, and what is

possible. “Probable” means that an effect is

highly likely to occur in the future, while “possible” means that it may occur, but that predicted

impacts must be carefully qualified to reflect the

level of certainty.

Currently, none of the predicted effects is

expected to benefit Florida’s natural resources