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rapidly, what other climate changes will
accompany the warming, and what the
long term effects of these changes will be.
Some detrimental effects, such as ocean
acidification, are already well documented.
Others will begin in the coming years and
decades, and the time is coming when the
state is simultaneously and continuously
challenged by all of these effects.
In the future, it is very likely that higher levels of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will result
in continued increases in average global
temperatures and sea levels, and that patterns
of rainfall will change as a result. However, a
number of important scientific questions need
additional study, including how much the Earth’s
temperature will rise, how rapidly, and how it
will affect the global climate (6).
P R I N C I PA L “ D R I V E R S ” O F
CLIMATE C HANGE AND HOW
T H E Y W I L L A F F E C T F L O R I DA
The following aspects, or “drivers,” of climate
change will affect Florida’s ocean and coastal
resources:
• Increasing greenhouse gases;
• Increasing air temperature and water
vapor;
• Increasing ocean temperature; and
• Increasing sea level.
Global climate models currently available,
including those used by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, are too broad to
resolve issues about smaller, individual regions
such as Florida. Thus, this report carefully identifies what is known about each of these drivers
and describes its effects on Florida’s ocean and
coastal resources in terms of what is currently
known, what is probable, and what is possible.
“Probable” means that an effect is highly likely
to occur in the future, while “possible” means
that it may occur, but that predicted impacts
must be carefully qualified to reflect the level of
certainty. The report also examines some of the
possible interactions among these drivers and
their effects, as well as the potential consequences for Florida’s infrastructure, human
health, and economy.
The range of effects is imperfectly known and
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incomplete but could include the following:
Driver: Increasing greenhouse gases
• Increased ocean acidification.
Driver: Increasing air temperature and
water vapor
• Altered rainfall and runoff patterns; and
• Changes in the frequency and intensity of
tropical storms and hurricanes.
Driver: Increasing ocean temperature
• Increased coral bleaching and disease;
• Increased incidence of coral and fish
diseases;
• Increased losses of sponges and other
marine plants and animals;
• Decreasd biological diversity, or biodiversity;
• Changes in the distribution of native and
invasive exotic marine species;
• Changes in nutrient supply, recycling, and
food webs; and
• Increased incidence of harmful algal
blooms, hypoxia (low oxygen), and waterborne diseases.
Driver: Increasing sea level
• Increased stresses on, or losses of, tidal
wetlands;
• Changes to the landforms (or geomorphology) of estuaries, tidal wetlands, and tidal
rivers;
• Greater instability of beaches, barrier
islands, and inlets; and
• Increased threats to coastal fresh water
supplies.
Currently, none of these effects is expected to
benefit the state’s natural resources or people.
However, this perspective may change as new
knowledge becomes available.
Florida will respond to the adverse effects of
climate change in three ways:
1. Some effects will have to be accepted,
meaning that no reasonable options will
be found. For example, Florida may have
to accept the loss of its coral reefs.
2. Some effects can be mitigated, meaning
that strategies and actions will compensate
for some of the adverse effects. For example,
the state may set aside additional coastal
lands so that tidal wetlands can migrate
inland as sea level rises, preserving these
essential coastal habitats.
3. Floridians will adapt, meaning that our
way of life, infrastructure, and/or economy
will have to change in order to maintain