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But what does science actually say? | [
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As of 2022, the global average temperature has risen 1.2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times. | [
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Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees was the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement, but we are not likely to meet it. | [
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Already with the warming we have today, hot places will get hotter, wet places wetter, and the risk and strength of extreme weather events increase significantly. | [
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Warming beyond 2 degrees makes all of these extremes more extreme. | [
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Some will not survive. | [
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At 3 degrees, significant parts of Earth, especially in developing countries, might become unable to feed their populations. | [
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Heat waves will become a major global issue. | [
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Large-scale natural systems will break down. | [
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The scale and frequency of hurricanes, fires, and droughts will further increase and cause trillions in damage. | [
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Poor regions and subsistence farmers will be hit the hardest. | [
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Hundreds of millions of people will need to leave their homes. | [
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In the 4-8 degree range, the apocalypse begins. | [
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A decade ago, for lack of action and perspective, many scientists assumed a 4-plus degree world was our future, | [
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and a lot of public communication focused on exactly this future path. | [
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Luckily, it's much less likely that this version of the apocalypse will come to pass. | [
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If current climate policies stagnate, we're likely to end up with warming of around 3 degrees Celsius by 2100. | [
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But this is actually good news. | [
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In the last decade, we've seen enough progress that most scientists now think that we have likely avoided apocalyptic climate change. | [
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Although substantial risk still remains, we can pretty confidently say that humanity isn't going anywhere. | [
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Civilization might have to change, but it will endure. | [
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Which begs the question, what has changed over the last 10 years, and is this really good news? | [
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You probably know this story. | [
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The last decade has been an immense failure for climate policies around the world. | [
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Instead of passing comprehensive, binding bills that would meaningfully reduce emissions, we mostly did nothing. | [
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And this story is true, and it's one reason why so many people are giving up. | [
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Despite the lack of climate policies and ongoing lobbying and misinformation campaigns from the fossil fuel industries, there was a lot of progress. | [
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Let's go back 20 years to see why today is so different. | [
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Between 2000 and 2010, greenhouse gas emissions had grown by 24%, three times as much as the increase in the previous decade. | [
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Subsidies for fossil fuels aimed at promoting economic growth caused a colossal increase in their consumption. | [
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For developing countries like China and India, coal was the cheapest fuel for growth, while rich countries showed little interest in changing their ways. | [
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In 2010, many people expected these trends to continue. | [
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Instead of decreasing fossil fuel use, its consumption would rise. | [
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The next decade turned out to be very different, though. | [
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First of all, coal burning in developing countries like India has slowed down or leveled off, like in China. | [
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And it's plummeted in rich countries like the UK and US. | [
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Since 2015, three quarters of planned coal plants have been cancelled, and 44 countries have committed to stop building them. | [
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10 years ago, that would have seemed like wishful thinking. | [
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But today we can say with confidence, coal is dying. | [
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It's just not competitive anymore. | [
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Solar electricity is now 10 times cheaper. | [
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One of the biggest obstacles is the variability of their power output. | [
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We're rapidly replacing old incandescent light bulbs with LEDs that are 10 times more efficient. | [
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Wherever you look, you find scientists, engineers and entrepreneurs trying to solve some aspect of climate change. | [
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Solutions for low carbon production of cement, electronics and steel, and innovations like artificial meat and carbon capture are in the works. | [
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It's no longer a matter of having to choose between prosperity and the climate, as it seemed to be a decade ago. | [
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They can skip most of the high emission phase that today's rich countries went through. | [
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In 2022, that technology does exist and costs around $600 to remove one ton of CO2 from the atmosphere. | [
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As investment pours in and the technology matures and begins to scale, it's likely that these costs will plummet over the next few decades. | [
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So everything's fine then. | [
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Well, let's not get carried away. | [
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All of these processes are great, but not nearly fast enough. | [
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We're still doing way too little and technology will not magically solve everything. | [
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We need to use fewer resources and use them longer, design consumer goods that are repairable and durable, and decrease our energy requirements. | [
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We need much better infrastructure, agriculture and cities. | [
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It will still be hard work, especially to get the right policies passed and enacted. | [
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But for the first time ever, there are a few trend lines pointing solidly in the right direction. | [
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And now imagine if all of this was achieved without proper financial and political support. | [
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And despite fossil fuel lobbying, just think what humanity can do when climate change finally gets the political attention and funding it needs. | [
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So is it okay to feel hopeful again? | [
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The situation is still dire and serious. | [
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So what's the point of focusing on this side of the story? | [
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Climate change can feel overwhelming and make your future seem bleak. | [
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The sadness and hopelessness that many people feel is real and very destructive because it causes apathy. | [
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In a sense, they have weaponized hopelessness. | [
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We are now in phase four in the public debate about rapid climate change action. | [
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Phase one was climate change is not real. | [
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