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Hume β s argument for his claim that no such inferences have a rational |
foundation. |
176 James E. Taylor and Stefanie Rocknak |
P1. If the (inductive) inference from (a) to (b) has a rational foundation, |
then it must be based on intuition, reasoning that is based on intuition |
( β demonstrative β or deductive reasoning) or reasoning that is based on |
direct observation ( β experimental β or inductive reasoning). |
P2. The (inductive) inference from (a) to (b) is not based on intuition, reasoning |
that is based on intuition, or reasoning that is based on direct |
observation. |
C1. The (inductive) inference from (a) to (b) does not have a rational |
foundation ( modus tollens , P1, P2). |
Argument for P2: |
P3. The connection between (a) and (b) of the example inference is not |
intuitive (i.e., it isn β t self - evident that if (a) is true, then (b) is true). |
P4. The inference from (a) to (b) is not based on demonstrative reasoning |
(since demonstrative reasoning can only establish claims that are not |
possibly false and the claim that if (a) is true, then (b) is true is possibly |
false). |
P5. The inference from (a) to (b) is not based on experimental reasoning |
(because all experimental reasoning presupposes that similar causes have |
similar effects and the inference in question is an instance of this very |
presupposition, so an experimental (inductive) argument for that inference |
would be circular). |
C2. P2 is true: the (inductive) inference from (a) to (b) is not based on |
intuition, reasoning that is based on intuition, or reasoning that is |
based on direct observation (conjunction, P3, P4, P5; De Morgan β s). |
Hume β s Negative Argument concerning Induction |
Hume , David . A Treatise of Human Nature , edited by D. F. and M. J. Norton. |
Oxford : Oxford University Press , 2002 . |
Arnold , N. Scott . β Hume β s Skepticism about Inductive Inferences . β Journal |
of the History of Philosophy 21 , 1 ( 1983 ): 31 β 55 . |
Baier , Annette . A Progress of Sentiments . Cambridge, MA : Harvard University |
Press , 1991 . |
Beauchamp , Tom , and Alexander Rosenberg . Hume and the Problem of |
Causation . Oxford : Oxford University Press , 1981 . |
Broughton , J. β Hume β s Skepticism about Causal Inferences . β Pacifi c |
Philosophical Quarterly 64 ( 1983 ): 3 β 18 . |
Stefanie Rocknak |
Hume and the Problem of Induction 177 |
Where does the necessity that seems to accompany causal inferences come |
from? β Why [do] we conclude that [ β¦ ] particular causes must necessarily |
have such particular effects? β (Hume, 1.3.2.15) In 1.3.6 of the Treatise , |
Hume entertains the possibility that this necessity is a function of reason. |
However, he eventually dismisses this possibility, where this dismissal consists |
of Hume β s β negative β argument concerning induction. This argument |
has received, and continues to receive, a tremendous amount of attention. |
How could causal inferences be justifi ed if they are not justifi ed by reason? |
If we believe that p causes q , isn β t it reason that allows us to conclude with |
some assurance β that is, with some necessity β that q whenever we see p ? |
The responses to these questions are many, but they may be parsed into |
four groups. (1) Some argue that Hume β s negative argument shows that he |
thought that inductive inferences are worthless. Hume was actually a closet |
β deductivist, β where he meant to show that any method that does not rely |
on a priori principles is useless (e.g., Stove). (2) Others have alleged that |
Hume β s negative argument only meant to show that we cannot use demonstrative |
reason to justify inductive inferences, but we can, apparently, justify |
them with probable reason (e.g., Beauchamp and Rosenberg, Arnold, |
Broughton, and Baier). (3) Still others argue that Hume β s notion of justifi cation |
(in regard to beliefs in general, including beliefs in causal inferences) |
should be understood in two stages in Book I of the Treatise . In the fi rst, |
Hume does lay out a theory of justifi cation. In the second (particularly in |
1.4.7), he retracts it (e.g., Passmore, Immerwahr, Schmitt, and Loeb). (4) |
Finally, there are those who claim that no β justifi cation β is needed for |
causal inferences. In fact, asking for it amounts to a misplaced demand for |
Garrett , Don . Cognition and Commitment in Hume β s Philosophy . Oxford : |
Oxford University Press , 1997 . |
Immerwahr , John . β The Failure of Hume β s Treatise . β Hume Studies 3 , 2 |
( 1977 ): 57 β 71 . |
Loeb , L. E. Stability and Justifi cation in Hume β s Treatise . Oxford : Oxford |
University Press , 2002 . |
Owen , David . Hume β s Reason . Oxford : Oxford University Press , 1999 . |
Passmore , John . Hume β s Intentions . Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University |
Press , 1952/1968 . |
Schmitt , F. E. Knowledge and Belief . London : Routledge , 1992 . |
Smith , Norman K. The Philosophy of David Hume: A Critical Study of its |
Origins and Central Doctrines . New York : Macmillan , 1941 . |
Stove , D. C. Probability and Hume β s Inductive Skepticism . Oxford : Oxford |
University Press , 1973 . |
Strawson , P. F. Introduction to Logical Theory . London : Methuen , 1952 . |
178 James E. Taylor and Stefanie Rocknak |
epistemic explanation; to some degree, this is what the negative argument |
shows us. What we must do instead is give a descriptive psychological |
explanation where this explanation consists of Hume β s β positive β account |
of induction; see, for instance, Treatise 1.3.14, β of the idea of necessary |
connexion β (e.g., Strawson, Garrett, and Owen). |
In the arguments that rule out demonstrative and probable reasoning, |
Hume assumes that the principle of uniformity is justifi ed by, respectively, |
demonstrative reason and probable reason, and then he respectively shows |
why these assumptions are incorrect. In the concluding argument, he |
shows that this means that the principle of uniformity is not justifi ed by |
reason, nor is the necessity that obtains of our causal inferences a function |
of reason. To do so, he draws on the premises established in his introduction |
and the conclusions established in the arguments that rule out demonstrative |
and probable reason. |
[We must now] discover the nature of that necessary connexion, which |
makes so essential a part of [the relation of cause and effect] [ . . . ]. Since it |
appears, that the transition from an impression present to the memory or |
senses to the idea of an object, we call cause and effect, is founded on past |
experience, and our resemblance of their constant conjunction, the next question |
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