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Mainly he knew that he hated medicine because the sight of blood made him sick so he had to have an alternative career path.
なにしろ彼は医学をやるのが嫌でした血を見ると気分が悪くなるからですだから別の進路が必要だったのです
So he started collecting data.
それでデータ収集を始めました
And he collected many things, including his famous finches.
あの有名なフィンチを含め様々なものを集めました
When he collected these finches, he threw them in a bag and he had no idea what they meant.
採集の際彼はフィンチを袋に放り込みその意味も認識していませんでした
Many years later back in London, Darwin looked at his data again and began to develop an explanation, and that explanation was the theory of natural selection.
何年も後ロンドンでダーウィンはデータを見直し解釈を見出し始めましたその解釈が自然選択説です
Besides inductive science, scientists also often participate in modeling.
帰納的な科学に加え科学者がよく使う手法にモデリングがあります
One of the things scientists want to do in life is to explain the causes of things.
科学者が人生で実現したいことの一つに原因の説明があります
And how do we do that?
どうやるのでしょうか ?
Well, one way you can do it is to build a model that tests an idea.
方法の一つはアイディアを試すためのモデルを作ることです
So this is a picture of Henry Cadell, who was a Scottish geologist in the 19th century.
こちらの写真はヘンリー・キャデル 19世紀のスコットランド人地質学者です
You can tell he's Scottish because he's wearing a deerstalker cap and Wellington boots.
スコットランド人だというのは鹿撃ち帽にウェリントン・ブーツで一目瞭然です
(Laughter) And Cadell wanted to answer the question, how are mountains formed?
( 笑 ) キャデルが解こうとした問題は「山はどうやって出来るのか ? 」でした
And this idea would later play a major role in discussions of continental drift.
そしてこのアイディアは後に大陸移動の議論で重要な役目を果たしました
So he built this model, this crazy contraption with levers and wood, and here's his wheelbarrow, buckets, a big sledgehammer.
彼はこれをモデル化しテコと木材で奇抜な仕掛けを作りました手押し車やバケツや大きなゲンノウもありますね
I don't know why he's got the Wellington boots.
ウェリントン・ブーツの理由は不明です
Maybe it's going to rain.
雨だったのかしらね
And he created this physical model in order to demonstrate that you could, in fact, create patterns in rocks, or at least, in this case, in mud, that looked a lot like mountains if you compressed them from the side.
彼がこの物理的モデルを作ったのは側面から圧力をかけると岩やこの場合で言うと泥に山にかなり似た模様が作り出せると実証するのが目的でした
So it was an argument about the cause of mountains.
それは山ができる原因についての主張でした
Nowadays, most scientists prefer to work inside, so they don't build physical models so much as to make computer simulations.
最近の科学者は屋内での仕事を好むので物理的モデルはあまり作りませんがコンピュータ・シミュレーションはします
But a computer simulation is a kind of a model.
コンピュータ・シミュレーションはモデルの一種です
It's a model that's made with mathematics, and like the physical models of the 19th century, it's very important for thinking about causes.
それは数学によるモデルで 19世紀の物理モデル同様原因について思考するために非常に重要です
So one of the big questions to do with climate change, we have tremendous amounts of evidence that the Earth is warming up.
気候変動に関する大問題の一つを挙げましょう地球の温暖化については膨大な証拠があります
So what, though, is driving that change?
でも何がその変化を促しているのでしょう
How can we know what's causing the observed warming?
観測された温暖化の原因が何かどうしたらわかるのでしょう
Well, scientists can model it using a computer simulation.
科学者はシミュレーションを使ってそれをモデル化できるのです
And they asked the question, what set of variables put into a model will reproduce what we actually see in real life?
そして科学者は調べますどの変数の組み合わせをモデルに入れると現実に起きていることを再現できるか
So here is the real life in black.
この黒い線が現実です
Here's the model in this light gray, and the answer is a model that includes, it's the answer E on that SAT, all of the above.
モデルはこの薄いグレーの線そして出た答えは学力試験の選択肢でお馴染みの「上記のすべて」を含むモデルです
And so this is why climate scientists say it's not just that we know that climate change is happening, we know that greenhouse gases are a major part of the reason why.
ですからこれを根拠に気候学者は気候変動が起きているだけではなく温室効果ガスがその理由の主要な部分を占めているのは明らかだと言えるわけです
What he was saying was, actually the full quotation is, "" If you press me to say what is the method of science, I would have to say: anything goes. "" What he was trying to say is that scientists do a lot of different things.
実際に言った全文はこうです「科学の手法とは何か答えろと迫られたら『何でもありだ』と言わざるを得ない」彼が言おうとしたのは科学者は様々な異なることをしており
Scientists are creative.
創造性豊かだということです
But then this pushes the question back: If scientists don't use a single method, then how do they decide what's right and what's wrong?
しかしここであの疑問が戻ってきます科学者の使う手法がバラバラなら何が正しく何が間違っているかどうやって決めるのでしょう
And who judges?
誰が判断するのでしょう
And the answer is, scientists judge, and they judge by judging evidence.
答えは科学者が判断するのですその判断は証拠の判断によります
Scientists collect evidence in many different ways, but however they collect it, they have to subject it to scrutiny.
科学者は様々な異なる方法で証拠を集めますがそれがどんな方法であれ証拠を検査にかけなければなりません
And this led the sociologist Robert Merton to focus on this question of how scientists scrutinize data and evidence, and he said they do it in a way he called "organized skepticism."
社会学者ロバート・マートンは科学者がどうやってデータや証拠を検査するかという問題に着目しその方法を「組織的懐疑主義」と呼びました
And by that he meant it's organized because they do it collectively, they do it as a group, and skepticism, because they do it from a position of distrust.
彼が組織化されていると考えたのは科学者たちが共同で集団として検査を行うからで懐疑主義だと考えたのは科学者がそれを不信をベースに行うからです
That is to say, the burden of proof is on the person with a novel claim.
すなわち立証責任を負うのは新しい主張を持ち込んだその人物です
And in this sense, science is intrinsically conservative.
この意味で科学は本質的に保守的です
So we can think of scientific knowledge as a consensus of experts.
つまり科学的知見は専門家の総意だと考えられます
We can also think of science as being a kind of a jury, except it's a very special kind of jury.
科学とは陪審のようなものだと考えることもできますかなり特殊な陪審ですけどね
It's not a jury of your peers, it's a jury of geeks.
あまり身近にはいないタイプのオタクの陪審です
It's a jury of men and women with Ph.D.s, and unlike a conventional jury, which has only two choices, guilty or not guilty, the scientific jury actually has a number of choices.
博士号を持つ人たちの陪審ですそして有罪か無罪か二者択一の通常の陪審と違って科学の陪審には選択肢がいろいろあります
Scientists can say yes, something's true.
科学者は「 Yes 真である」と言うこともあれば
Scientists can say no, it's false.
「 No 偽である」と言うこともあります
Or, they can say, well it might be true but we need to work more and collect more evidence.
あるいは「真の可能性はあるが ― もっと研究を重ね証拠を積み上げる必要がある」とか
Or, they can say it might be true, but we don't know how to answer the question and we're going to put it aside and maybe we'll come back to it later.
「真の可能性はあるが ― 答えようがないのでひとまず保留にして後々また考えよう」とか言うこともあります
That's what scientists call "" intractable. "" But this leads us to one final problem: If science is what scientists say it is, then isn't that just an appeal to authority?
これは科学者が「解決困難」と呼ぶものですしかしこれが最後の問題につながります科学が科学者の意見で成立しているのなら単なる権威への訴えかけではないのでしょうか
And weren't we all taught in school that the appeal to authority is a logical fallacy?
私たちは学校で権威への訴えは論理上の誤謬だと教わったのではないでしょうか
It's the authority of the collective community.
権威とは科学界全体のことです
You can think of it is a kind of wisdom of the crowd, but a very special kind of crowd.
ある種の「集団の知恵」だと思えばいいです非常に特殊な集団ですけどね
Science does appeal to authority, but it's not based on any individual, no matter how smart that individual may be.
科学は権威に訴えかけますが基準は特定の人物ではありませんどんなに頭脳明晰だとしてもです
It's based on the collective wisdom, the collective knowledge, the collective work, of all of the scientists who have worked on a particular problem.
基準となるのはある問題について研究してきた全ての科学者の集団的英知集団的知見集合体としての研究成果です
Scientists have a kind of culture of collective distrust, this "" show me "" culture, illustrated by this nice woman here showing her colleagues her evidence.
科学者にはある種の集団的不信の文化があります「証明してみろ」の文化ですこちらの素敵な女性が良い例です仲間に自分の見つけた証拠を見せています
Of course, these people don't really look like scientists, because they're much too happy.
勿論この人たちは科学者にしてはニコニコしすぎですね
(Laughter) Okay, so that brings me to my final point.
( 笑 ) さてでは私の最後の論点です
Most of us get up in the morning.
大抵の人は朝起きて
Most of us trust our cars.
自分の車を信頼しています
Well, see, now I'm thinking, I'm in Manhattan, this is a bad analogy, but most Americans who don't live in Manhattan get up in the morning and get in their cars and turn on that ignition, and their cars work, and they work incredibly well.
ここはマンハッタンですから例えが悪いですけどマンハッタン以外に住むアメリカ人のほとんどは朝起きて車に乗ります
The modern automobile hardly ever breaks down.
現代の車はめったに故障しません
So why is that? Why do cars work so well?
なぜ車はそんなにうまく動くのでしょう
It's not because of the genius of Henry Ford or Karl Benz or even Elon Musk.
ヘンリー・フォードやカール・ベンツやイーロン・マスクらの才能のためではありません
It's because the modern automobile is the product of more than 100 years of work by hundreds and thousands and tens of thousands of people.
その理由は現代の車が百年以上に渡る何百何千何万もの人々の仕事の積み重ねだからです
The modern automobile is the product of the collected work and wisdom and experience of every man and woman who has ever worked on a car, and the reliability of the technology is the result of that accumulated effort.
現代の車は車に関わる仕事をしたすべての人の集合的な研究と知恵と経験の成果でありテクノロジーの信頼性は蓄積された努力の結晶なのです
We benefit not just from the genius of Benz and Ford and Musk but from the collective intelligence and hard work of all of the people who have worked on the modern car.
私たちが恩恵を受けているのはベンツやフォードやマスクらの才能だけでなく現代の車に関わったすべての人たちの集団的な知と勤勉のおかげなのです
And the same is true of science, only science is even older.
科学も同じですただし科学は車より歴史が長いですが
Our basis for trust in science is actually the same as our basis in trust in technology, and the same as our basis for trust in anything, namely, experience.
私たちの科学を信頼する根拠はテクノロジーを信頼する根拠と同じで対象が何であれ信頼するときの根拠と同じですすなわち経験がモノを言うのです
But it shouldn't be blind trust any more than we would have blind trust in anything.
しかし盲目的な信頼はダメです何事においても鵜呑みはいけません
Our trust in science, like science itself, should be based on evidence, and that means that scientists have to become better communicators.
科学自体がそうであるように私たちの科学に対する信頼も証拠に基づいていなければなりませんだから科学者はもっと上手に伝えるようにしなければなりません
They have to explain to us not just what they know but how they know it, and it means that we have to become better listeners.
科学者は私たちに結果だけではなくその過程をも説明しなければなりませんそして私たちはもっと上手に聞けるようにならなければなりません
Thank you very much.
ありがとうございました
(Applause)
( 拍手 )
We grew up interacting with the physical objects around us.
私たちは身の回りのモノに触れて育ってきました
There are an enormous number of them that we use every day.
私たちが日常生活で使うモノは
Unlike most of our computing devices, these objects are much more fun to use.
日常生活のモノというのは使うのが楽しいものです
When you talk about objects, one other thing automatically comes attached to that thing, and that is gestures: how we manipulate these objects, how we use these objects in everyday life.
それに付随してくるものがもう1つありますジェスチャーですそれらのモノをどうやって扱うのか実生活でそれらのモノをどう使うのか
We use gestures not only to interact with these objects, but we also use them to interact with each other.
ジェスチャーはモノに対してだけ使うわけではありません人に対しても使います
A gesture of "" Namaste! "", maybe, to respect someone, or maybe, in India I don't need to teach a kid that this means "" four runs "" in cricket.
これはクリケットの「 4ラン」だと
It comes as a part of our everyday learning.
生活の中で自然に学び取るのです
So, I am very interested, from the beginning, how our knowledge about everyday objects and gestures, and how we use these objects, can be leveraged to our interactions with the digital world.
「モノやジェスチャーに対する実生活でモノをどう使うかということがデジタル世界をより良くするために役立てられないだろうか ? 」
Rather than using a keyboard and mouse, why can I not use my computer in the same way that I interact in the physical world?
キーボードやマウスを使うかわりに日常的なジェスチャーでコンピュータを使うことはできないだろうか ?
So, I started this exploration around eight years back, and it literally started with a mouse on my desk.
8年ほど前に私はこの探求を始めましたそして自分の机の上にあるマウスをまず手に取りました
Rather than using it for my computer, I actually opened it.
それでコンピュータを使うというのではなく
Most of you might be aware that, in those days, the mouse used to come with a ball inside, and there were two rollers that actually guide the computer where the ball is moving, and, accordingly, where the mouse is moving.
マウスというのはマウスを動かしたときのボールの動きをコンピュータに伝えるようになっています
So, I was interested in these two rollers, and I actually wanted more, so I borrowed another mouse from a friend — never returned to him — and I now had four rollers.
もっと欲しくなって友達からもマウスを借りましたこれでローラーが4つになりました
Interestingly, what I did with these rollers is, basically, I took them off of these mouses and then put them in one line.
そのローラーを使って何をやったかというとマウスから取り外して
It had some strings and pulleys and some springs.
紐と滑車とバネをつけたのです
What I got is basically a gesture-interface device that actually acts as a motion-sensing device made for two dollars.
出来上がったのはジェスチャーをインターフェイスとする装置でモーションセンサの働きをします 2ドルでできました
So, here, whatever movement I do in my physical world is actually replicated inside the digital world just using this small device that I made, around eight years back, in 2000.
私が実世界でした動きがこの小さな装置を通してデジタル世界で再現されます
Because I was interested in integrating these two worlds, I thought of sticky notes.
2つの世界の統合に私は関心があって
But you can also search in the digital world, or maybe you can write a query, saying, "What is Dr. Smith's address?"
そうするとデジタル世界の中で検索することもでき「スミス先生の住所は ? 」といった問い合わせもできます
and this small system actually prints it out — so it actually acts like a paper input-output system, just made out of paper.
結果は紙に印刷されて出てきます
In another exploration, I thought of making a pen that can draw in three dimensions.
別な探求として私は3次元に書けるペンというのも考えました
So, I implemented this pen that can help designers and architects not only think in three dimensions, but they can actually draw, so that it's more intuitive to use that way.
そのペンがあれば 3次元で考えるというだけでなく実際に3次元で書くこともできずっと直感的に使えるはずです
Then I thought, "" Why not make a Google Map, but in the physical world? "" Rather than typing a keyword to find something, I put my objects on top of it.
何かを探すために検索語を打ち込むのではなくモノをその上に載せるのです
If I put a boarding pass, it will show me where the flight gate is.
搭乗チケットを載せればゲートへの道順を示してくれ
A coffee cup will show where you can find more coffee, or where you can trash the cup.
ゴミ箱の場所を示すという具合です
So, these were some of the earlier explorations I did because the goal was to connect these two worlds seamlessly.
どれも私が初期にやった探求です私の目的はずっと2つの世界を継ぎ目なく結ぶということでした
Among all these experiments, there was one thing in common: I was trying to bring a part of the physical world to the digital world.
これらの実験にはどれも 1つの共通点があります身の回りの世界の一部をデジタル世界に持ってこようとしていることです